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Supreme Court ruling devalues sterling (Dayle Littlejohn)

After 3 days of lawyers discussing if Theresa May has the power to invoke Article50 sterling exchange rates have begun to fall. Furthermore MPs in the Houses of Commons have been debating Labour’s call that the Brexit plan should be outlined to the public before Article50 is triggered. Tomorrow both sets of lawyers will give their closing statements and I expect this could cause further volatility for the pound and therefore sterling exchange rates could fall.

GBPEUR forecast 

With the pound falling across the board, I still think there is a good chance GBPEUR could rise tomorrow. The European Central Bank will inform the market of future monetary policy and in particular the quantitative easing program.

Many economists believe an extension will occur and therefore a rise in GBPEUR exchange rates could occur. Tomorrow is an important day for GBPEUR exchange rates for the remainder of the year, if you would like to be kept up to date due to an upcoming transfer please email me directly drl@currencies.co.uk.

If you are trading another currency pair that I have not covered, feel free to email me with the pair (GBPUSD, GBPAUD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

If you are buying or selling euros in the upcoming weeks and are looking to achieve competitive rates of exchange whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me with your requirements or call the trading floor on 0044 1494 787478 and ask for Dayle Littlejohn.

 

Supreme Court and Article 50 uncertainty causes Sterling weakness Tom Holian)

Sterling exchange rates have continued to fall since yesterday afternoon as the positive gains following the Italian referendum seem to have disappeared.

The focus will now turn to the ongoing discussions with the Brexit discussion and the current court case involving the Supreme Court.

Prime Minister Theresa May agreed yesterday that she will publish her plan about how the UK will leave the European Union but the timing of the release is as of yet unclear.

It appears as though Theresa May has had her hand forced by Labour who wanted to see what the plan is in order to proceed with Article 50.

Labour would like the plan to be published by January which may coincide with the judgment made by the Supreme Court.

The next potential for volatility for Sterling vs the Euro will come on Thursday when the European Central Bank meet to discuss their latest interest rate decision.

The ECB have been really struggling to control falling inflation recently and their current Quantitative Easing programme does not appear to have had the desired effect.

Therefore, I think even if the central bank does not change the current QE programme any hints that more easing could come could potentially see Sterling make some gains vs the Euro.

The NIESR publishes it latest set of GDP data for the three months up until November at 3pm today and although this data is not the official release it is usually fairly accurate and therefore often has a big impact on exchange rates.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you better exchange rates than by using your bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds. 

If you have a currency requirement and would like to save money when buying currency then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling gathers pace against the majority of major Currencies. (Daniel Johnson)

Italian Referendum causes the Pound to strengthen

On Sunday we saw Sterling gain strength following the result of the Italian referendum. Matteo Renzi has made the decision to resign following much needed reform failing to be passed. With Italian bad bank loans in excess of €360bn, Renzi was prepared to provide support. With Italian politics in limbo and the new government not necessarily sharing Renzi’s willingness to help the potential for pressure on these banks has caused investors to lose faith in the Euro and move elsewhere. GBP/EUR briefly broke 1.20 providing the best levels for selling Sterling in several months.

Despite the pound falling slightly since these highs it may still be wise to take advantage of current levels. With trade negotiations post Brexit still shrouded in uncertainty the pound could be headed for sharp falls. The Supreme Court Judgement relating to whether the government will get a vote on the triggering of article 50 will be being broadcast live, traders could be ready to move in an instant news is released and could cause volatility on the market.

Data Releases of Consequence

European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision 8th December

On Thursday we will see the ECB interest rate decision, although I expect to see no movement in interest rates. Draghi will be under pressure to divulge his plans on Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. The ECB are currently injecting €80bn a month into the Eurozone in a bid to stave off deflation. The current program is due to end in March. The program is currently not having the desired affect, but were it to be removed deflation becomes a very real possibility which could be catastrophic for the Euro. Draghi will surely lengthen the program and could possibly increase monthly increments which could create an opportunity for Euro buyers.

US Interest Rate Decision 14th December

The 14th December brings the US interest decision. We have recently seen very positive figures from manufacturing and unemployment. Janet Yellen’s position as FED Chair is also being threatened by Trump for her lack of rate hikes so I would be surprised not to see a raise in rates. This will largely have filtered into GBP/USD rates, but once it is confirmed I would still expect Dollar strength. If you are buying dollars I would be tempted to move at current levels.

UK Consumer Inflation Expectations Friday 9th December

Although only an estimate, with the value of Sterling so low, manufacturers and retailers alike will be hiking their prices due to the increased costs of goods bought abroad, which will be passed on to the consumer. There is expected to be a significant rise in inflation so this release could move Sterling value.

If  you have a currency requirement it is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade will make  a huge difference to your return during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board they can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision.  I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

Italian referendum and the impact for Sterling vs the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates broke briefly past 1.20 overnight on the Interbank level as predicted in some of my previous articles. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi announced that he will be resigning following the ‘no’ vote in the Italian referendum aimed at reforming the constitution.

In the same way as David Cameron allowed the Brexit vote to happen Renzi authorised this vote to take place and it has ended up going against him forcing him to resign.

The Five Star movement who are aiming to hold their own referendum on EU membership are now likely to gain a bit of momentum and this could see a shift in the political feeling in France, Holland and Germany as they go to the polls next year.

Today, the Supreme Court will be looking at the government’s challenge to overrule the High Court in an attempt to ensure Article 50 will be triggered in March 2017 as planned by Prime Minister Theresa May.

However, the announcement about the ruling is not likely to come out until January 2017 so we could be in for a very uncertain December.

The European Central Bank are due to meet on Thursday and with inflation still running extremely low on the continent the ECB are struggling to combat this problem and could end up with the central bank announcing further Quantitative Easing measures on Thursday and if this happens this could also help push Sterling in an upwards direction against the Euro.

Generally speaking economic data in the UK has been relatively strong during 2016 and it is really only the uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote which continues to keep the pressure on Sterling exchange rates. However, as Europe appears to be destabilising politically recently then I think we may see further gains for the Pound towards the end of the year.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you better exchange rates than using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

The impact of the Italian Referendum on GBPEUR exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

GBPEUR exchange rates finished the week at a 3 month high, due to investors selling off their euros in anticipation of the Italian referendum decision tomorrow morning.

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi wants to streamline parliament and take power away from the senate. His plans are to cut senate members from 315 to 100 which would in turn speed up the law making process. It’s important to note that Matteo Renzi has said he will resign if he loses.

The no campaign is being headed by anti-establishment party Five Star Movement, who want to hold a referendum in regards to keeping the euro, as many Italians are fed up that the economy is stagnant,

If the Prime Minister loses the vote then the Five Star Movement party led by Beppe Grillo would receive a boost from the prime minister’s defeat and I think there would be another referendum in the near future in regards to EU membership.

With polls suggesting there is a good chance the Prime Minister will lose the vote I expect the Euro will continue to lose value tomorrow and therefore GBPEUR exchange rates will break through 1.20.

For Euro buyers exchange rates have improved 10 cents in 4 weeks, which means a €200,000 purchase is now £15,000 cheaper!

If GBPEUR exchange rates improve further off the back of the Italian Referendum, euro buyers within the next 0-6 months should seriously consider taking advantage as I believe its only a matter of time until we know more about what Brexit will look like and therefore the pound will lose value.

If you are trading another currency pair that I have not covered, feel free to email me with the pair (GBPUSD, GBPAUD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

If you are buying or selling euros in the upcoming weeks and are looking to achieve competitive rates of exchange whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me with your requirements or call the trading floor on 0044 1494 787478 and ask for Dayle Littlejohn.

 

 

The impact of the Italian referendum on Sterling Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

The Pound vs the Euro has hit its best level to buy Euros with Sterling since September with the Pound making huge gains against all major currencies during the course of this week

On Thursday the Brexit secretary David Davis made claims that the UK could look to pay money to the European Union even after we have left the EU in an attempt to keep rights with the single market. This is one the main concerns for the UK’s negotiations and sets the tone that the UK may opt for s ‘soft’ Brexit. This helped the Pound to make some very big gains towards the end of this week.

On Sunday the Italians hold their own referendum on constitutional reform with Italian Prime Minster suggesting previously that he may resign if he is unable to get what he wants. Part of the reform is to centralise the banking system which is currently under huge pressure with large amounts of bad debt. If the vote goes the wrong way for Renzi and he does resign this could see Sterling Euro arguably challenge 1.20 during the early part of next week.

During 2016 we have seen many political upsets first with the Brexit vote back in June and then last month’s US election with Trump becoming the next President. Therefore, I would not be surprised to see a ‘protest’ vote with Renzi possibly resigning. Currency does not react well to political uncertainty and this is why I think we could see GBPEUR rates go in an upwards direction next week.

 

Next week the Supreme Court challenge concerning Article 50 is due to take place so I personally expect next week to be volatile to say the least. If you’re either buying or selling Euros in the weeks and months ahead and are worried about what may happen to exchange rates then it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that with my experience I can help you with the timing of your transfer as well as save you money when buying or selling Euros compared to using your own bank.

For a free quote please email me directly with details about the volume you’re looking to convert and the timescale involved and I look forward to hearing from you. If I haven’t covered your currency pair and you would like further information again please get in touch.

teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Italian referendum this weekend to be key for exchange rates early next week (Daniel Wright)

So another referendum is due to happen this weekend, this time over in Italy. Unlike the recent one in the U.K this is not a vote to leave the EU but a vote on constitutional reform.

This is extremely key as it may result in another heavy bout of uncertainty for Italy should the vote got the wrong way for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who has already warned that should the vote go against him and stop him from making certain changes that he feels he need to make then he would be looking to step down.

We already have various economic issues for Italy, most notably the banks who appear to be struggling and walking a bit of a tightrope, so should we then see huge political uncertainty added to Italian woes then the Euro may have a bad start to next week and you may potentially see GBP/EUR exchange rates go above 1.20 again in trading early next week.

Considering exchange rates against the Euro were lingering around the 1.10 mark merely a few weeks ago, anyone looking to buy Euros must be looking at the markets with a small smirk on their face as their pending purchase has got a lot cheaper recently.

Sunday night/Monday morning will be the next point of interest for anyone with a Euro interest and with so many other large decisions pending within Europe over the next few months I firmly believe the next 12 months are going to be extremely testing for the Euro.

We cannot forget there is also an election in Austria this weekend too with the far right party holding a great chance of success, causing more issues politically within the area.

All of these referendums and elections will impact all major currencies as we will see alterations in global attitude to risk, so the perceived ‘riskier’ currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR may lose strength and those that are perceived as safer havens may gain ground if results cause uncertainty.

If you have any currency to exchange, no matter where you are based then we can help you out here. Should you wish to have a friendly, proactive and experienced broker on your side then we always welcome new clients to get in touch. I have personally been assisting clients moving money overseas and bringing money back for nearly 10 years so you can be confident that your transaction will be dealt with smoothly, securely and at the best rate of exchange.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk should you be in this position and I will be more than happy to contact you personally. I look forward to speaking with you.

Another Volatile Day for Sterling! (Matthew Vassallo)

It was another volatile day for Sterling yesterday, with the Pound spiking up to a high of 1.1956, before retracting back towards 1.18 by close of European trading.

The Pound received another welcome boost following apparent comments made by Boris Johnson, regarding the free movement of people within the UK following our upcoming Brexit. This immediately gave the Pound market support, with GBP/EUR rates spiking off the back of it. Johnson was quick to speak out against this and claimed he had in fact never made the statement and the Pound lost value as quickly as it had gained it.

There were further comments made by Brexit secretary who clarified the government’s stance to some extent, by claiming the UK would consider contributing to the EU budget in order to guarantee the best possible access for goods and services to Europe. This more official statement is likely to help support the Pound over the coming days but whether it is enough to push GBP/EUR rates back towards the 1.20 mark is unclear.

Yesterday’s rates were the best in over three months for those clients holding GBP and I’m still of the opinion that clients should be looking at these short-term improvements as a window of opportunity. I’m still not convinced that any further Sterling strength will be sustainable under current market conditions, with so much uncertainty still engulfing the UK economy. We still have no clear picture of how we will facilitate our Brexit and with the high court ruling in regards to the triggering of Article 50 still to be ratified by the Supreme Court, who knows what the state of play will be, come the start of 2017.

Sterling has gained over 4 cents in the past few weeks, which on a £100,000 GBP/EUR exchange would be the equivalent of an additional 4000 EUR and considering how fragile the UK economy remains in the eyes of investors, this could the opportunity clients have been waiting for.

For the more risk adverse this month’s Italian referendum could put additional pressure of the Eurozone economy. If the Italian public vote NO to the reforms then current Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is likely to step down, which could pave the way for the far right party to gain support. This would increase the likelihood of a another referendum on Italy’s future participation in the EU and the EUR could come under pressure as a result.

If you have an upcoming GBP currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Buying Euro and Dollar rates soar from Boris and David’s comments (Joshua Privett)

Fresh two and a half month highs were reached earlier today on buying Euro and Dollar exchange rates following surprising and contentious comments made by the men spearheading the Brexit project.

David Davis and Boris Johnson, the Brexit Secretary and the Foreign Secretary respectively, have come out this morning seemingly having taken a U-turn on key positions which financial markets pounced on immediately. At its peak GBP/EUR bridged 1.1950, GBP/USD breached 1.2690 and GBP/AUD just pipped over 1.7150.

Financial markets have made no secret that they want the UK to remain part of the single market. Collectively there is greater appetite for investment in the Pound if they know the transition away from the EU is expected to be gentler – hence the term ‘soft Brexit’.

Johnson, as was shown all over major newspapers today, has stated privately to ambassadors that he was ‘all for’ free movement of people. And David Davis has stated that the UK will likely continue to pay for preferential access to the single market today in a statement in the House of Commons.

An utter reversal on both Government and Boris’s own public opinions stated recently, and the greater likelihood of a softer Brexit suggested in the comments saw the Pound soar against all major pairings, with buying Euros and US Dollar buyers being the key winners.

However, as the day waned on the ‘run’ on the Pound began to lose its momentum and eventually fell back heavily. Speculators taking profit from such serious movements today are seen as the root cause.

Moving forward, GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD exchange rates will need to navigate the upcoming Italian Referendum and US non-farm payroll figures.

The US figures are to be released tomorrow lunchtime and the Italian Referendum results are expected on Monday.

The referendum will be key for buying Euro rates as a NO result will likely mean the rise of the far right over in Italy, and create further questions marks regarding the Eurozone’s future. Polls are currently neck and neck, but heavy movement is expected on Monday either way. As such a premium will be put on being able to move quickly on Monday to secure tempting levels or protect yourself from any sudden downturns.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a foreign currency requirement using Sterling should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer to safeguard it from any adverse movements and to discuss how best to seize any particularly tempting levels which emerge in the short term.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.

I will also remind our regular readers that if you are looking to be securing an exchange rate for a future purchase based on the recent improvements in the Pound, this is easily done using a forward contract, whereby the rate is pre-booked at today’s levels to be utilized for a later date. Again simply email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss this further.

Sterling exchange rates enter December in good health, but will the Pound continue to climb? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is entering the new month in a much stronger position than it entered November, after the currency gained an impressive 4.5% against the Euro through last month as well as performing well against a number of other major currencies.

Yesterday afternoon the Pound spiked upward against the Euro, as did the US Dollar, after both UK GILT (bonds issued by the UK government) and US government issued bond yields both increased in anticipating of further quantitative easing from the European Central Bank, (ECB) and also expectations of an aggressive fiscal plan by the US President elect Donald Trump.

Whilst complicated the result was Sterling strength across the board.

People planning on converting Pounds into another major currency such as the US Dollar, the Euro or the Australian Dollar for example have been presented with a much more attractive opportunity than this time last month, due to the Pounds unexpected gains off the back of the unexpected election of Trump.

Personally, I think the Pound may gain further on the Euro as we enter December and the Italian Referendum this weekend may be the catalyst. If the Italian Prime Minister (Matteo Renzi) is unsuccessful in his plan to change the Italian constitution in order to reform the banking system in Italy, I think we could see further Euro weakness as soon as next week. Feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept updated on this topic.

Those in the process of buying property abroad or moving large amounts of money internationally have the chance to save thousands if we compare the Pounds value now compared with just a month ago, and with the help of a specialist currency exchange brokerage like ourselves we can help clients get even more for their money as our rates can improve on the banks offerings by between 1-4%.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in to speak with me over the phone on 01494 787 478, just ask reception for Joe if I don’t answer myself.