Better exchange rates than the banks for private and corporate clients - Contact us today!

Researching the markets so that you don\'t have to

 

GBPEUR finishes 0.8% down from the start to end of trading (Dayle Littlejohn)

The question all clients are asking that need to buy euros this year, os whether to buy now or wait for the tides to turn? Quite simply my strategy would be to buy sooner rather than later.

There are 3 main reasons for GBPEUR continuing to slide:

  • Last week the Bank of England cut growth forecasts and confirmed an interest rate hike is off the cards this year.
  • The US have indicated they also wont be raising interest rates this year and we therefore saw a mass sell off of USD to buy Euros.
  • China is continuing to struggle  therefore the commodity currencies surrounding China have unwound their carry trades and invested back into the euros.

It’s important when trading currency you analyse both of the currencies in question. If you have an upcoming currency transfer to make this week, month or year I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD etc) and your individual requirement (buying a property abroad, paying a company invoice) and I will personally respond to you with my forecast and the process of using our company.

Quite simply we can give you economic information to help you time your transfer and can also offer you a better exchange rate than what you would receive with your bank and other brokerages. This can be anywhere between 1-5%. My direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn. Alternatively call me Monday morning on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you would simply like a comparison against your provider email me with the exact figures, time scales and the best number to contact you on and I will call you with our live buying price. This will take 2 minutes and could save you thousands! 

US FED update changes forecast- GBPEUR SPIKE

GBPEUR rates SPIKE

Yesterday evening we had quite a surprise in the market and with such little levels of resistance the currency markets swung violently. This movement allowed Euro buyers to re-catch the losses we have seen the day before on Tuesday. Tuesday we saw the worse levels seen for over 14 months.

To highlight the opportunity over the course of yesterday a £200,000 EURO purchase if timed well could have secured you over €3,000 more, this just highlights just how volatile and unforgiving this market can be. If you want to act quickly on this SPIKE please contact myself ASAP on hse@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478

Why did rates climb 2%?

Yesterday was actually a bad day for the UK economy with GDP figures and economic data showing a weakness which is why many are surprised to see rates actually climb.  The reason for this climb is all thanks to news from the FED reserve.

If we put ourselves back 3 months GBPEUR rates were over 1.40 and the reason for this was significant euro weakness not really pound strength. At that point in time the world expected the US to raise interest rates 4 times through 2016, as a result investors took money out of the single currency and invested into the US. This sell off out of the single currency changed demand and therefore value weakening the euro and giving us this opportunity over 1.40. This changed however following the global slowdown in financial markets and 36 hours ago there was a view that maybe only one interest rate hike would happen. As a result the invested money moved once again and went back into the euro and we saw rates drop and get more expenses with rates heading towards 1.25.  Yesterday’s news from the FED changed this view and therefore changed the price of buying the single currency once more.

What the FED did yesterday was change market views once more and this investment money moved again. They hinted that there would almost certainly be one interest rate hike and potentially two, the first being in 4 months’ time. So money flew out of the euro once more yesterday afternoon and into the USD, making the euro weaker and cheaper to buy.

GBPEUR levels this week

As we all know markets are very changeable and therefore ‘dangerous’ at the moment, generally the strength of the Pound is expected to fall and I still agree. I think this current opportunity is just that, a SPIKE rather than a change in trend. Therefore if you have euros to buy you still have to have a very strong argument as to why you think rates will climb further.

If you would like more information on this topic, to discuss in more detail first hand or indeed live forecasts and prices please do get in contact. Contact myself STEVE EAKINS on hse@currencies.co.uk or indeed call on 01494 787 478 and ask for myself.

Sterling has another exceedingly volatile day against Euro, Dollar and all majors – Global markets remain fragile (Daniel Wright)

It has been yet another busy day on the trading floor and we have seen yet another volatile 24 hours for Sterling exchange rates.

Markets around the world appear to be exceedingly nervous at present and there is a little worry that we may have one hell of a storm brewing ahead.

In the past year we have seen issues with the European economy, issues with the Chinese economy, oil prices dropping off, bank share prices plummet and the potential of any interest rate hike for the U.K slowly but surely be kicked further and further down the road so it is no surprise that the markets are acting a little out of the ordinary.

My personal opinion is still that Sterling is a little undervalued however when you do see negative movements like we have witnessed of late then the question does start to arise of how much further can it drop before we see a recovery? We all wish we truly knew the answer to this question as we would make a great deal of money…

The key with these sort of situations if you are due to be making a large exchange is to make sure you protect your position. Many people fall into the trap of thinking that they have to carry out their currency needs in one large chunk, and to time that correctly is almost impossible, along with the fact that you leave yourself extremely exposed.

If you are in the position that you do need to buy or sell a large quantity of currency for your business or indeed for the purchase or sale of a property then it is well worth getting in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly so that I can work together with you to try and maximise your money. I have been assisting clients in this position for nearly 10 years and I have been writing on this site for over 5 years so I am well positioned to not only help you get top commercial rates of exchange but also to ensure you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side at all times.

If you are stuck in a tricky position due to the latest movements and you are finding that you are stuck on your own with nowhere to turn the feel free to get in touch with me directly and I will be more than happy to call you personally. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk or call me on 01494 787 478 during U.K office hours of 08:30am – 18:00pm (please ask for Daniel Wright). You do not need to be based in the U.K for us to be able to help you.

GBP/EUR and GBP/USD now in daily slides (Joshua Privett)

It seems the only currency that Sterling had any gains against yesterday was on GPB/AUD, as rates for buying Euros (GBP/EUR) and for buying Dollars (GBP/USD), saw a fourth consecutive negative day in the currency markets.

This was seen most prominently in rates to buy Euros, which have come down by over 1% each day this week, and a total fall over the past 5 business days of nearly 6 cents.

The reasoning behind this hasn’t really changed since mid-December, it has simply become more obvious; the British economy is slowing.

Due to flooding and slowdown in global growth, alongside falling prices for commodities such as oil, growth forecasts for the UK have been revised downwards across most sectors – particularly for manufacturing, industrial and retail.

What’s most concerning compared to December is that we are also beginning to see a slow-down in the financial services sector as well, which has been hit for continuous slides in global stock and commodity prices. Mass sell-offs of shares is hitting the confidence in the UK financial sector to continue to perform and make-up for shortfalls elsewhere in UK GDP, which is translating into weaker confidence in the Pound.

George Osborne himself said that this would be the most difficult year for the UK economy since the financial crisis, and immediately his words have become prophetic since we’re only into the second week of February.

A global slowdown is not a short-term phenomenon, and particularly against the Euro the Pound is in for a difficult year with the Eurozone beginning to finally benefit from the emergency financial stimulus they introduced in January 2015. Their growth figures are up which is why Sterling has performed the worst against the Euro in recent weeks.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros or Dollars to buy in the short or medium term (3 months), should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

Whilst the outlook is concerning, currency markets rarely move in a straight line, and opportunities may present themselves in the short-term after such significant movements. Any favourable exchange rates reached can actually be fixed to avoid further harmful movement affecting your transfer.

Anyone looking to purchase Sterling can do the same, and I will explain how best to ride any further movements in your favour expected to their peak in the time period you have to complete your transfer. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Sterling’s Fall Continues (Daniel Johnson)

The outlook for Sterling against most major currency pairings is far from favorable. It really is taking a hammering of late and I feel the slide could continue. Global Economic uncertainty combined with both poor UK data and the pending  EU referendum does not sit the Pound in good place for the months going forward. Medium to long term the EU referendum will hold back Sterling until the votes have been counted. However should we leave the EU, I think Sterling could well fall in excess of five cents against the Euro and more against USD.

Short term we have Industrial and Manufacturing figures released tomorrow and GDP data on Thursday, I expect a fall in all areas so Sterling’s woes could continue.

GBP/EUR

Although I expect Sterling to slide further against the Euro, it would be prudent not to hang on too long if you are a Euro seller. If Mario Draghi the Head of the European Central Bank decides to increase monthly increments through his Quantitative Easing Program you could see a quick change in GBP/EUR value.

If you would like a more in detail forecast for your individual currency requirement, taking into account time scale and hedging. I will be happy to assist. Please do not hesitate to get in touch. I can guarantee to beat any competitors rate of exchange. You can contact me at dcj@currencies.co.uk .

Sterling – The Week Ahead (Daniel Johnson)

Last week saw the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, I remained unchanged at 0.5% as expected. What was of interest however was the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote. The MPC consists of nine members and they vote as to whether there should be any change in Interest Rates. The vote has been coming in at 8-1 for many months with Ian McCafferty the sole member voting in favour of a rate hike. This changed on Thursday with McCafferty changing his stance putting the vote to 9-0. This caused Sterling to weaken against the majority of major currency pairings.

The EU referendum is really dragging Sterling down, if there is a Brexit I think it would be catastrophic the Pound. Trade relations would could become incredibly problematic and until the referendum is concluded I doubt Sterling will move above 1.35.

Key Data Releases this Week

Wednesday will see the release of Industrial and Manufacturing data, which already sits at a six year low.  There could well be a further fall which could weaken Sterling. GDP figures come in on Wednesday afternoon and due to continued Global Economic uncertainty I think we will see a drop which will cause more woes for the Pound.

Timing a trade correctly is vital to maximising your return, with the help of a broker you can expect to be kept up to date with vital data releases and market movement. My clients have been extremely happy with the way their trades have worked out as of late and I would would take pleasure in assisting any new clients with their trade. I will also guarantee to beat any competitors exchange rate. If you have a currency requirement I would  recommend getting in touch by  e-mail me  at dcj@currencies.co.uk . Thank you for reading my blog it is greatly appreciated I look forward to hearing from you.

 

UK ‘Super Thursday’ was not so super, and the upcoming week ahead. (Dayle Littlejohn)

It was another poor week for sterling exchange rates due to ‘Super’ Thursday’s data releases. Super Thursday is when the Bank of England releases their latest Interest Rate decision, Minutes and Inflation report. Due to the data releases GBPEUR dropped 2 1/2 cents and GBPUSD 1 1/2 cents. 

As for the interest rate decision, the Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep interest rates at historic lows of 0.5%. This was the first time since August 2015. It now appears the first hike will not occur until at least next year and interest rates will not rise above 1% until 2019.

The Bank of England minutes suggested that the UK economy had slowed slightly more than expected and also exclaimed an increase in population and changes in taxes meant that the populations wage growth had become weaker than anticipated and would not increase as expected. The bank had predicted last autumn that wage growth would rise at 3.75%, however this was cut to 3%.

It also appeared to be doom and gloom for the inflation report. Governor Mark Carney exclaimed the constant dropping in oil prices is not helping the problem and went on to suggest inflation will remain at worrying lows for the time being. However the Governor did try and lighten the mood by predicting the target 2% inflation level would be hit within a couple of years.

It possibly could be another tricky week for sterling exchange rates. Tuesday we have UK trade numbers. As Europe is the UK’s largest trade partner, I believe GBPEUR was overvalued throughout December therefore trade numbers could suffer. I expect sterling to lost ground across the board Tuesday morning. Later in the week on Thursday the NIESR GDP estimate is to be released. With the Bank of England painted such a bleak picture I wouldn’t be surprised to see the NIESR follow suit.

The start of 2016 has just shown that the UK’s economic recovery is far from complete and with the BOE’s negative commentary and a possible upcoming referendum (possibly as early as June) I expect this year is going to be testing for the pound. If you have to buy a foreign currency this year, now is the time to start creating a strategy to make it as cheap as possible and this is where I can help.

It’s important when trading currency you analyse both of the currencies in question. If you have an upcoming currency transfer to make this week, month or year I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD etc) and your individual requirement (buying a property abroad, paying a company invoice) and I will personally respond to you with my forecast and the process of using our company.

Quite simply we can give you economic information to help you time your transfer and can also offer you a better exchange rate than what you would receive with your bank and other brokerages. This can be anywhere between 1-5%. My direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn. Alternatively call me Monday morning on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you would simply like a comparison against your provider email me with the exact figures, time scales and the best number to contact you on and I will call you with our live buying price. This will take 2 minutes and could save you thousands! 

US Jobs Data strengthens the US Dollar vs Sterling but for how long? (Tom Holian)

The Dollar has strengthened during the end of the week vs Sterling following the very positive jobs data which came out yesterday afternoon.

The US economy has added an extra 151,000 new jobs taking the unemployment level for the US down to just 4.9%.

This is now at its lowest level since 2008 and the average hourly rate has also risen. The good news is that for Dollar sellers the recent weakening which happened earlier in the week has now reversed.

However, the amount of new jobs created was lower than expected so the Dollar is not out of the woods yet.

Indeed, the report means that the US Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates as quickly as previously expected which could lead to Dollar weakness in the months ahead.

With the primaries now in motion I think the Dollar could have a very indifferent few months ahead.

If we look at what happened during the UK general election Sterling fell out of favour in the run up to the vote and I think the uncertainty over who will lead the US in the future will have a negative effect on the Dollar vs both the Euro and the Pound.

On Wednesday Fed Chairlady Janet Yellen is due to take centre stage and if she signals a slowdown in the speed of raising rates I think this could also see GBPUSD rates move in an upwards direction.

My prediction for next week is for Sterling to gain vs the US Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Bank of England Decision causes big losses for Sterling Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

Sterling has really suffered this week and the negative movements were highlighted yesterday with the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. The 9 members of the MPC have all chosen to keep rates on hold which is a change from the 8-1 vote previously.

Ian McCafferty has changed his mind which to me is not that much of a surprise but this has certainly has a negative impact on Sterling vs Euro.

The UK Quarterly Inflation Report was also published yesterday which caused losses for Sterling compared to both Euro and US Dollar.

The Bank of England has changed both its growth and inflation forecasts and with inflation not expected to hit 2% until 2018 this means we might not see interest rates rise until then either.

The lack of an interest rate rise and the looming fears of a Brexit has caused real problems for Sterling exchange rates and whilst the uncertainty of the EU talks are ongoing I think this will weigh heavily on the Pound.

UK Average Earnings were downgraded from 3.75% to 3% for 2016 and although higher than current inflation levels this is concerning for the UK economy as any downgrade is never positive.

We end the week with US Non-Farm Payroll data this afternoon as well as US unemployment data and if you’re considering a transfer involving Sterling and US Dollars then it is worth keeping your eye out for this data release.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Alternatively call me directly on 01494-725353 and ask for Tom Holian when calling.

 

 

Sterling’s Struggles Continue (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling’s struggles have continued this week and despite a slight recovery against the USD, the general trend has certainly been negative. The downward spiral coincided with the start of 2016 and the Pound has failed to replicate the good feeling of last year and this has been reflected in the current exchange rates.

GBP/EUR rates have dropped below 1.30 today and as I’ve discussed in previous posts, this is a key resistance level for the Pound. If we see another aggressive move for the EUR the Pound may struggle to break back through it and whilst my underlying feeling has been that the Pound would start to find some support, the current trend is concerning for those clients holding GBP.

It is slightly better news for those clients looking to purchase USD, with the Pound fighting back over the past 48 hours. The pair is floating around 1.45 having spent most of last month closer to 1.40. Poor employment figures in the US have helped to stem the flow but based on the current economic climate in the UK, I am not anticipating this positive spike to continue. As we move through the year we may see Sterling improve, as the US elections are likely to cause some uncertainty and the hope for those clients holding GBP is that 1.40 will provide some protection if the rates do start to drop again.

Much of the focus this week has been on the UK and with key data releases yesterday, investors were dubbing it ‘Super Thursday’. Unfortunately it was anything but and the Pound suffered as a result. The Bank of England’s (BoE) UK Inflation Report made for grim reading and with BoE governor Mark Carney cutting growth forecasts in the UK, I’m not expecting a major improvement for Sterling in the short-term.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 725 353 and ask one of the reception team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk