Let us be your eyes and ears on the market

More »

We can help you save money when buying your overseas property!

More »

Better exchange rates than the banks for private and corporate clients - Contact us today!

More »

 

Sterling exchange rate latest – Economic data due out soon that may cause volatility (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has dropped against most major currencies during trading today, however we have seen a positive movement for Sterling against both the Norwegian Krone and Canadian Dollar.

The Pound in general appears to have fallen slightly out of fashion this week but anyone looking to buy either NOK or CAD in the coming days or weeks will have been pleased to see a decision from oil ministers to keep their output target unchanged. With oil prices being key to both of these particular currencies this news weakened both off with the Canadian Dollar losing roughly half a percent and Norwegian Krone losing over 1%.

We have plenty of economic data due out in the coming few days, first and foremost we have consumer confidence figures due out for the U.K which are actually released shortly after midnight. Consumer confidence is a measure of the general feeling of consumers and a positive figure may give the Pound strength yet negative may lead to quite the opposite.

Tomorrow morning is key for those that have the requirement to either buy or sell the Euro as we see inflation figures released at 10:00am. Inflation has been one of the key talking points during European Central Bank interest rate decisions and the press conference shortly after as there had been a fear of deflation which did lead to head of the ECB Mario Draghi taking fiscal action.

Later on in the day we have Canadian growth figures which may either give the Canadian Dollar a chance to recover or kick it whilst it is down. Expectations are for a positive figure but as regular readers will know the market is here to surprise us.

Over the weekend we also have an extremely important vote surrounding Switzerland which may have an effect on the Swiss Franc and the price of gold. A great overview of that can be seen by clicking here.

If you have foreign currency exchange in the coming days, weeks or months then it may be well worth you getting in contact with me directly. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to call you personally. I would be extremely surprised if I could not better any exchange rate that you have already been offered.

Happy thanksgiving to our friends over in America – I look forward to speaking to you soon.

Sterling gains even with mixed data. GBPEUR Forecast

Sterling levels have gained recently despite mixed data releases this week. UK GDP figures yesterday came in as expected with a 0.7% gain through the third quarter of this year however there was a dramatic fall in the business investment figures, from 9.3% to 6.3%. This does suggest that there may be some trouble ahead for the UK as business leaders already start to take their foot of the accelerator in anticipation of the uncertainty caused around the general election only 6 months away. It really does highlight how potentially volatile the sterling pound will be in the run up to the election, a negative trend is generally expected as the uncertainty impacts Sterling’s value so is certainly  period that people looking at buying foreign currency should avoid next year.

There is little economic data out today, Thursday, so I generally expect a fairly quiet day for GBPEUR levels, watch out for Nationwide House Price data tomorrow morning however and the potential for profit taking. Profit taking is when investors reset their levels of investments abroad, so either bringing back profits or re-investing, and this change in demand can have a short term impact on currency values sometimes giving opportunities.  If you are looking at trading within the next week please let us know ASAP and we can help with the timing of the trade. Next week there is a host of economic data including PMI data for Manufacturing, Construction and the Service sector and of course the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision on Thursday. Also watch out for the Autumn Budget Statement expected on Wednesday which I think could be negative.

For a full break-down including the potential strategies you have available to you please get in contact, email myself if you would like a personal response via hse@currencies.co.uk

Currency Forecast 2015 – Knowing what may happen in the future allows you to free up time and limit your risk…

GBP

The pound has been one of the best performers of 2014. Will this be the case for 2015? I have to say for the earlier part of 2015 it looks highly unlikely as a very uncertain General Election should cause GBP weakness. We saw this with the Scottish referendum in September. It is not just the outcome here that is important. Business confidence will be significantly lower as both international and domestic businesses alongside individuals refrain from key decisions owing to the uncertainty. This election will be fought and possibly won or lost on the European question and this will greatly unsettle financial markets which in my opinion have failed to so far price this important event in.

Generally speaking the raising and lowering of interest rates causes a currency to fluctuate. If a central bank actually raise rates (or market observers think they might in the future) the currency should strengthen. If there are thoughts that they will lower rates the currency will weaken.

Applying this to the UK, expectations for most of the summer the bank would raise interest rates caused the pound to spike. Remember currency markets move on rumour and speculation as much as fact. This speculation has now been pushed back (and may be pushed even further back) into 2015, if not 2016. If this is the case it is likely sterling will likely fall further.

If you are expecting a larger currency purchase in the first half of 2015 there might be some good arguments for utilising a forward contract to fix current exchange rates. We were in an almost identical position 2 years ago on GBPEUR approaching Christmas and by March had dropped some ten cents.

Part of our service is keep you updated and examine strategies that will protect you from unexpected swings on the currency market so please email on jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options available to you.

Euro

Inflation is the rate at which prices rise or fall. Rapidly rising or falling prices can destabilise an economy and managing Inflation has been a key aspect of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) economic policy in 2014.

Mario Draghi, President of the ECB has stated that the new year may see the ECB ramp up their Quantitative Easing (QE) programme. The ECB’s approach to their economic situation has changed in 2014 from reactive to proactive with a range of measures to try and encourage growth being put in place.

QE (sometimes referred to as printing money) is where a central bank injects money into an economy to rejuvenate it and some observers have predicted the future will be a ‘stagflationary’ period in the Eurozone. This is where an economy fails to grow and inflation is a problem. It might be that just like Japan and the US before the ECB needs to continuously be ramping up the QE presses, this could lead to Euro volatility depending how the market digests such news.

Predicting 2015’s movements on Euro rates could prove very difficult but with a large amount of policy having been decided on in 2014, it may be the Euro is more susceptible to movements from other currencies.

USD

As we expected the dollar has recovered but just like with sterling the rise is mainly linked to expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in 2015.

The US economy is finally performing well but is this mainly down to the trillions of dollars we have seen pumped into markets from their QE programme? The end of the Fed’s QE programme may yet unsettle markets, slowdowns in China, the Eurozone and the UK could see the US once again roll out the QE presses.

I would personally not be holding on for them to raise interest rates anytime soon and USDGDP traders might wish to take stock of the 15 cents improvements.

For more information on the forecast and to be kept up to date with the latest news please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Where Next for Sterling Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling continues to hold its position against the EUR but has struggled to make any significant inroads against the USD over recent weeks. On-going economic problems inside the Eurozone are handicapping the single currency and despite a slowdown in UK data, the Pound continues to find support around 1.26. UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures were released this morning and came out as expected but it was European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi’s recent comments, regarding how the ECB will take drastic measure to combat the threat of deflation, has helped to push GBP back up to the current levels.

However, the same can be said for GBP/USD rates with the pair now trading between 1.57-1.58, a far cry from levels seen over the summer which were comfortable above 1.60. The USD has also been boosted by an improving economy and it now looks likely that the US FED will raise interest rates before the Bank of England (BoE). US GDP figures were revised up from 3.3% to 3.9% and this has all helped to support the USD around the current levels. I do feel a move towards 1.55 is likely, so if you have USD to buy it may be prudent to consider your position before any further losses.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Euro awaits UK GDP (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have been trading in a tight range today as the market takes a breath before the announcement of UK GDP figures due out at 930am tomorrow morning.

Expectations are for a 3% rise and any change could result in GBPEUR volatility. Personally, I think we could see Sterling strength in the morning.

Arguably just as important will be the announcement of German unemployment due on Thursday morning. As the Eurozone’s leading economy any negative result could see Euro weakness.

ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments last Friday saw Sterling gain by as much as 1% against the Euro or an extra £500 on a currency transfer of £50,000.

Draghi suggested that the ECB may intervene in buying up government bonds in order to encourage the banks to buy riskier assets and get consumer spending again. This will likely help the Eurozone but in the short term this could be detrimental to the Euro.

Eurozone growth has stalled recently and with worrying low inflation rates it is only a matter of time before the ECB acts.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using a bank then contact me directly. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Best Rates of Exchange – When to Buy or Sell Currency? (Andrew Bromley)

Buy Euros Now? Stagnant Pound?

Sterling has been ‘range bound’ of late, with highs and lows being circa 1.2425 – 1.2650. Today had German GDP data at 07:00, which came out as expected at 1.2% and further highlights a lot of economists belief that the Germans are going nowhere fast! On the other side of the currency pair UK Mortgage Approvals came in slightly lower than expected at 37,100 against an expected figure of 38,500. Last month the figure released was 39,300 so this reduction is not good news for Sterling. Those holding GBP EUR will need to be wary of the UK GDP ‘1st revision’ tomorrow which is the re-release of last months GDP figure, taking in to account any data revisions during the month passed. If the UK GDP is revised down from the 3% figure released then expect immediate Sterling weakness, potentially down to the 1.24 level of support. On the other hand if the figure is revised up then expect to see Sterling test the 1.27 level. If you have an exchange to do and you’re not sure how to play it – please feel free to get in touch using the contact details below!

USD Romp – Buy USD Now?

My opinion on timing for the purchase of USD would be to get the currency bought ASAP! The greenback took a huge amount of strength from the conclusion of the bond buying (Quantitative easing) and seems at home in the 1.50s. I think that as international commodities are weak (Iron Ore, Gold, Oil) investors will be keen to keep their funds in the safe haven currency (USD). This will keep USD strong and subsequently, I don’t feel that USD buyers will see a figure much stronger. I would be inclined to buy sooner rather than later in this position. This afternoon has US GDP and Consumer Confidence (13:30 and 15:00 respectively), you may see movement at this time.

As mentioned, please feel free to drop me a line if you do have an exchange to book. The direct line to the trading floor is 01494 787 478 or email me AJB@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Strength thanks to Mario Draghi (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR exchange rates took a massive lift on Friday following the comments made by ECB President Mario Draghi.

Sterling improved by over 1% during Friday’s trading session against the single currency as the news shocked the currency markets.

Mario Draghi gave his biggest hint yet that purchases of government debt could help the struggling Eurozone. The idea of purchasing the debt is aimed at increasing prices for riskier assets which would free up more money for capital purchases and ultimately get more people spending.

Falling inflation is the biggest risk to Eurozone growth and this could now come as early as next year. Indeed, Draghi went to say ‘the central bank would do what we must to raise inflation and inflation expectations as fast as possible.’

In my previous reports I have been concerned that Sterling has remained too high for too long as it’ll ultimately affect the British export market. However, my viewpoint has slightly changed, at least in the short term, as the comments from Draghi will undoubtedly weaken the Euro.

UK Retail Sales out last week were also much better then expected at 4.3% compared to the anticipated 3.8% which led to Sterling gains and since the middle part of last week Sterling has gained against the Euro.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

GBPEUR rates finally stop the negative trend – STEVE EAKINS

Sterling has generally been falling for the last two weeks but we have seen some light relief in its value against the single currency this week. The only good thing to take away from this week seems to be that we have finally seen the Pounds value establish a range and some barriers. Levels now seem to be set around the 1.245 – 1.255 a staggering 4 cent drop from the highs seen only 2 weeks away.  This hold came from UK Retail figures which exceeded expectation and European data that missed them on Thursday morning.

Regular readers will probably still recognise that current levels are still ok in comparison to the months gone by, ignoring the last 60 days levels are at a year and a half high which many over the last 18 months would happily have bought at. To be honest I think these levels are now established and unlikely to change in the coming weeks.

 

Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank is also speaking this morning with a change expected in the market. Comments on QE and growth in the troubled states of France and Germany will be closely looked at

 

Next week economic data which generally drives the market is rather light as we enter the last week o the month, economic data is normally for the previous month so is published at the beginning of the month. Political drive has now started to show its effects on the currency market and eyes are on the Autumn budget on the 3rd December to see how this plays out. Plus the bi-election last night where the the out-right party UKIP won their second seat in government.

 

I see anything over 1.255 as a buy for the rest of November but am becoming increasingly wary that rates could fall further longer term before the end of the year.

 

For a chat about the above please feel free to get in contact. Call me on the normal number or email myself directly, Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk

How well do you really understand what is driving your exchange rate?

The pound looks likely to rise against most of the major currencies longer term as the UK appears likely to raise interest rates in the future. This is important because the raising and lowering of interest rates by a central bank greatly affects the strength or weakness of a currency. Understanding this fact – that the raising and lowering of interest rates greatly affects the strength and weakness of a currency – is key to predicting where exchange rates are headed.

One of the major reasons for GBP strength in 2014 is high expectations the UK would raise interest rates in 2014. This expectation has been pushed well back into 2015, if not 2016 and anyone holding on for this to happen to make an exchange had better have a long time to do so! I remember in 2012 we were almost in an identical position , with expectations high the UK would raise interest rates in the coming year or two. We then had the Eurozone crisis deteriorate (remember Greece on the brink of leaving the Eurozone) and the following Spring the UK entered a triple dip recession and the pound crashed from 1.24 to 1.14 in about 6 weeks!

I do not think we are likely to see such a sharp move but with the General Election and increased political uncertainty on the cards for 2015 a tough patch for the pound appears highly likely. Even though May 2015 seems many months away it is not actually that far in terms of exchange rates. Considering you have seen anywhere from 5-15 cents movement per year for the last few years on GBPEUR, making some plans now for currency in the new year is clearly sensible. 

We offer a range of contract options to fix exchange rates at currency levels and also to automatically purchase when a desired rate is hit (stop / loss and limit order). Speaking with or emailing us with a brief outline of your situation carries no obligation. We are currency specialists who are here to assist in the safe planning and execution of your transfers.

The real risk on exchange rates is doing nothing and leaving it all to chance so to learn more please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk,

I look forward to hearing from you.

Thank you,

Jonathan

Sterling gets a Lift? (Tom Holian)

With inflation falling below the Bank of England’s target there was an outside chance that the minutes from yesterday’s BoE meeting could have been different from the previous month.

The minutes showed that 7-2 were in favour of keeping interest rates on hold which led the Pound to strengthen marginally against the Euro during yesterday’s trading session.

This morning German manufacturing data has come in a lot worse than expected which has sent GBPEUR rates above 1.25.

In a few minutes UK Retail Sales data is due out and the expectation is for growth of 3.8%. Anything higher could keep Sterling strong against the Euro.

French economic growth has been struggling recently and questions are being raised as to whether the French are taking their situation seriously enough. With growth on the continent struggling there is still a chance that the ECB may intervene with monetary policy at next month’s meeting which could result in Euro weakness in the longer term.

US Inflation data is published at 130pm today and as the world’s leading economy if the data is positive this could result in Dollar strength which often results in Euro weakness.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

This site is protected by Comment SPAM Wiper.