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Have GBPEUR Rates hit their Peak? (Tom Holian)

On Wednesday this week we saw the highest level for GBPEUR exchange rates since February 2008 as the currency markets continued to digest the news from the QE performed by the European Central Bank and the conclusion of the Greek elections.

Sterling saw huge gains during January but one real problem for those needing to buy Euros is when to make the decision to make a currency transfer.

As Sterling has been riding high for a few weeks one problem for the British economy is that if the Pound remains as high as it has this month it ultimately starts to affect the price of British exports making them less competitive particular for European consumers which ends up having a detrimental affect on UK GDP.

The Bank of England minutes out recently confirmed that no members would like a rate change which suggests to me that the UK will keep interest rates on hold until at least next year.

If you would like to take advantage of current levels and have a currency transfer to make then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Where Next for Sterling Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been another volatile week for Sterling, as the fallout from a host of key economic decisions continues. The movement seen on the markets over the past couple of weeks has thrown many investors, with aggressive spikes amongst the majority of the regularly traded currency pairs.

GBP/EUR has hit a fresh 7 year high this week, following the Greek election results and it is likely we will see further fallouts over the coming weeks & months. With the new government’s anti-austerity stance, it is likely the new Greek Prime minister is on a collision course with Angela Merkel and other Eurozone heavyweights, as they attempt to renegotiate their bailout package.

Focus will also be on the European Central Bank (ECB) following their decision to inject up to 1.3 trillion EUR into the Eurozone economy over the next two years in the hope this will counter deflation (when the inflation level falls below 0%) across the region.

It is easy to assume under the current economic conditions that the Pound will continue on its upward curve against the EUR but a word of caution to those holding out for 1.35. The latest Bank of England (BoE) minutes indicated there are no longer any members voting for a UK interest rate hike and this is likely to dampen expectations moving forward. This was a key topic last year and every time it was talked down the Pound lost value and I believe the BoE will utilise this again to try and control Sterling’s value. We also need to look at the UK Manufacturing sector which has slowed during the last couple of months and this could have been a key reason the recent UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, came out lower than expected.

Personally I feel whilst we continue to trade above 1.30 against the EUR, we are doing better than we should be and I would be tempted to take advantage of the 7 year high, rather than gamble on GBP gaining further momentum.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling exchange rates – Stable against Euro, rising against Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar! (Daniel Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have remained fairly stable against the Euro over the course of this week, despite news from Greece and the QE program introduced by the ECB (European Central Bank) last Thursday. Many had expected the Euro to continue to fall but as ever the Euro has managed to just about stand firm following an initial sell off.

The Pound has had a fairly positive few days against most other major currencies gaining some ground back against the Swiss Franc most notably after a fairly dramatic few weeks.

We have very little left to come out in terms of economic data for the U.K for the rest of the week however you should be wary of tonight’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision over in America as it may alter global attitude to risk and could have an effect on all major currencies so it really is one to watch out for.

Also, Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney shall be speaking just before this and although no bombshells are expected this could lead to market volatility this evening.

If you are looking to carry out a currency exchange and you want to not only achieve a better exchange rate than your current supplier but also an award winning personal service then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) by emailing me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to call or email you back.

GBPEUR Buying euros – When is the peak going to be?

Sterling’s value against the pound has been going from strength to strength this last 10 days. Following the European news coming from Brussels and Greece the euro has only worsened and now sits close to a SEVEN YEAR HIGH for buyers. The next question many have asked is will it get higher still?  I personally think that there is the potential for a small gain yet to be seen but I think it is very unlikely that we will see such a large gain again for the rest of the year.  The news out of Europe has frankly been frightening hence the large movement we have seen and there is no further large events on the same magnitude.  The next largest event is probably in the UK rather than Europe with the UK election in early May. This is probably going to create a period of Sterling weakness however as no clear party is expected and an unknown coalition government is likely to be formed.  Meaning that if you are needing euros in the next 3 months my personal view would be to move sooner rather than later.

Saying that however we all know that rates will not move in a straight line and timing the trade will remain key to getting the very best price. Traditional micro economic data that we report on here will come back into the forefront on timing transfers. Friday is when we have the next data released for Europe this is expected to show a worsening picture and give buyers probably the best price seen for the rest of the week.

If you would like a full breakdown of what to expect over the next 14 days and therefore when might be the best time to trade feel free to get in contact with us here. You can contact myself directly at hse@currencies.co.uk

Best Rates of Exchange – Exchange Rate Forecast – Andrew Bromley

The Pound has had a busy day today with a fair movement seen between day high and low against most currencies.

The key news today for the Pound was the UK GDP figure. Although a slight reduction against Month on Month and Year on Year was seen, the Pound has remained strong against the Euro and several other key currencies. This has highlighted not only the weakness of the Euro, but the state of other weak currencies. That being said, a watchful eye should be cast on the reducing timescale until the UK General Election.

Euro – When to BUY or SELL?

The Single Currency has been the victim of three major fallouts – The Swiss National Banks removal of their 1.20 EUR-CHF trading peg, Eurozone Quantitative Easing commencement and the Greek Election. The Greek election and subsequent triumph of the EU Sceptic ‘Syriza’ party has the potential to really put cracks in to the stability of the Eurozone as a whole. Syriza we a very popular choice for the Greek people, who feel that the excessive austerity measures need to change. Therefore the Syriza plan to re-negotiate the bailout by the ECB (Eurozone Central Bank) and IMF (international Monetary Fund) was a major factor to their success. This however is not something that Angela Merkel (German Chancellor) is keen on and has the propensity to force the Greeks out of the Eurozone entirely. Although this is a worst case scenario, it is a very real situation that the markets have yet reacted fully to. If you are buying Euros in the Short term (0-3 months) I’d be inclined to get exchanged prior to the UK General Election and whilst the rates are at the 6 year high.

Australian Dollar Forecast

The Australian Dollar has lost several cents in several trading sessions! The AUD is loosely linked to the US Dollar and investors attitude to risk. When the US Dollar is seen as the place to have your money, commodity currencies (Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, South African Rand) tend to suffer. It is also worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia meet early next month to agree their monetary policy, and as the Reserve Bank of Australia have indicated on many occasions that the AUD is overvalued in their eyes (Most notably governor Glenn Stevens), we may be close to seeing 2 AUD to the Pound again.

If you have an exchange requirement, please feel free to get in touch. There is a huge amount of volatility currently, so using the market to your advantage (and not disadvantage!) is trickier than usual! Drop me an email AJB@currencies.co.uk or call direct to the trading floor 01494 787 478 to discuss. We have assisted over 70,000 clients, won exchange rate awards from the Sunday Times and Telegraph plus been trading for 15 years!

I look forward to being of assistance!

Andrew Bromley

 

100 days till the UK General Election (Tom Holian)

With 100 days to go before the UK general election we could be in for an interesting next few months for Sterling Euro exchange rates.

Looking at the polls there is no clear party emerging which means we could be in for another hung parliament and therefore another coalition government.

With the Greeks having voted in the Syriza party the next repayment they have to make is due late February so it will be interesting to see if they are able to renegotiate the terms of the previous bailout by the IMF and EU.

This morning the UK publishes GDP figures for the final quarter of 2014 and if the data is lower than expected we could see Sterling fall against the Euro.

German unemployment data is due on Thursday morning followed by the ECB monthly report and CPI data for Germany on Thursday afternoon so we expect to see a big movement for GBPEUR exchange rates.

The Eurozone is still reeling from the Swiss National Bank movement last week and the Quantitative Easing from last Thursday so expect a volatile period for exchange rates between now and the end of the month.

If you have  a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Greek elections lead to further Euro weakness – Dollar breaks 1.50 (Daniel Wright)

Greek elections show Syrizia victory – Further Euro weakness

Well we have certainly seen an extremely busy start to the year as far as the currency markets go and this weekend did not fail to add to the drama.

Yesterday Greece voted in favour of the far left group Syrizia who have been saying throughout the campaign that they would aim to re-negotiate the Greek debt package. On top of this they have also suggested even looking to leave the Eurozone which would cause even further problems  in an already stumbling economy.

What this brings is yet further uncertainty to the Euro both politically and in an economic sense which can tend to weaken a currency fairly significantly.

If you also consider the fact that it was only last week that the Eurozone introduced a huge QE (Quantitative Easing) plan then it is absolutely no surprise at all that the Euro has found itself well and truly out of fashion and has weakened significantly this year against Sterling and the Dollar.

As it stands it would cost almost £8,500 less to buy €200,000 today than it would have cost at the turn of the year which is certainly nothing to be sniffed at.

If you are looking to purchase a property overseas this year and you want to take advantage of current buying levels then there is a great option available to you known as a forward contract. This useful contract option allows you to lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to a year in advance, paying merely a small deposit initially and then the balance on or before whichever date has been agreed, this is absolutely vita if you are working to a fairly tight budget. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a contact number and I will be more than happy to call you personally.

Dollar breaks 1.50 – Antipodean weakness

Trading on Friday also saw Sterling drop through the 1.50 mark against the Dollar and I personally would not be surprised to see this run continue. In times of global uncertainty the Dollar can quite often become the main benefactor and it appears that this is happening again.  On top of this the antipodean and perceived ‘riskier’ currencies (AUD, NZD and ZAR) are starting to weaken off again.

With Europe finally showing huge cracks appearing and more uncertainty than England’s batsmen in the cricket, along with terribly sad news over the weekend that Islamic state have now potentially killed a Japanese hostage  there is a huge shift in global attitude to risk so a flight to safety to the Dollar is well and truly underway.

GDP figure for the U.K due out on Tuesday

Apart from the fallout from one of the most important weeks in the history of the Euro one key piece of data for the U.K is due out on Tuesday morning at 09:30am. The release is our GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figure for the last quarter of 2015. GDP basically measures how much an economy grew or shrank during a specific period and expectations are for the quarter to have shown a slight drop from 0.7% to 0.6% so any change to this may lead to an extremely volatile day for the Pound to add to what is lined up to be an exceptionally busy week.

How has QE affected Sterling Euro Rates (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have this week hit their highest levels in 7 years as the ECB announced a huge amount of QE.

The ECB has confirmed that it will pump in EUR60bn per month until at least September 2016 in an attempt to combat deflation across Europe.

The stimulus was expected but by how much was not revealed until Thursday afternoon. However, it was not the announcement itself but the press conference that really took hold of the currency markets.

Indeed, Sterling rallied against the Euro by over 3 cents from Thursday morning until Friday afternoon creating the best level to buy Euros for 7 years.

With the surprise movement by the Swiss National Bank over a week ago and a movement of 30% on the CHFEUR rate it came as no surprise that the ECB had to do something.

EURUSD exchange rates are now their lowest level in history as of Friday and this has helped to push GBPUSD exchange rates below 1.50 on Friday afternoon’s trading session and my opinion is that this could fall even further.

UK GDP figures are released on Tuesday morning and with the previous measure showing 2.6% any marginal fall could put paid to Sterling’s recent strength against the Euro.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

 

More is lost through indecision than a poor decision!!! Sterling at multi-year high against the Euro and multi year low against the Dollar (Daniel Wright)

Good afternoon and what a crazy week once again on the trading floor!!!

A very quick update from me as we are currently busier than we have been in a number of years!

The Euro has fallen well and truly out of fashion this week with thanks to the QE (Quantitative Easing) program bought in yesterday.

QE is generally seen as a negative for the currency concerned as we have seen previously with the U.K and U.S so this may weigh heavily on the Euro in the coming weeks.

The Dollar managed to briefly break the pivotal 1.50 level today and is now poised just above the 1.50 mark and I would not be surprised to see it potentially break through it mand offer a trading price of 1.50 at the start of next week.

If you are looking to buy foreign currency and you want the very best exchange rates then feel free to contact me directly and I will be able to not only save you money over your current provider but also ensure you get an exceedingly high level of customer service too.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.

 

 

Sterling Euro hits new highs (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates hit their highest level in 7 years today as the ECB confirmed a new round of Quantitative Easing this afternoon.

The ECB has confirmed that it will buy bonds worth EUR60bn until September next year and maybe even longer is things don’t work out as expected.

As of March the new programme will begin and this is aimed at helping the struggling Eurozone.

With the Eurozone being affected by very low inflation the change in monetary policy was inevitable as predicted in my previous posts and I think they could have even gone further than today’s announcement.

The target level for inflation is 2% and they are well off at the moment. Indeed, EURUSD exchange rates are now the lowest in history and fell by 2% during today’s trading session. GBPEUR rates are now the highest in 7 years.

The scheme has seemingly worked in the UK and US and both economies are looking relatively strong in recent times.

The idea in principle is to create more lending into the economy which in turn will get consumers spending which promotes growth. However, I think we’re a long way off before the Eurozone gets back to the required growth levels

If you would like to take advantage of these current highs on exchange rates then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

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