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Eurozone Inflation Data and impact on GBPEUR Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

Inflation appears to be the main focus for both the UK and Eurozone over the last few weeks as it may have a huge impact on Sterling Euro exchange rates over the next few days.

Inflation in the UK has fallen recently from 1.9% to 1.6% which suggests that an interest rate rise in the UK may be pushed back further in to the future rather than coming sooner as previously expected. The Bank of England target is for 2% and if it consistently gets close or surpasses it then the likely scenario would be for an interest rate rise.

Eurozone inflation is currently running at just 0.4% which is worryingly low and there are fears that it may fall even further tomorrow when the data is released at 10am. If it falls we could see the ECB being forced at next week’s meeting to put in place some form of monetary policy change which could result in Euro weakness.

Also due out in the morning is Eurozone unemployment data which is arguably on of the most important factors in the economy as low unemployment has a direct impact on growth. The expectation is for 11.5% so anything lower could again result in Euro weakness.

Looming over the Eurozone is still the issue with the French government which was dissolved on Monday following internal rows within the cabinet at to whether to increase austerity measures or spend their way out of the crisis.

If you’re thinking about making a transfer to buy Euros over the next few days in may be worth seeing how tomorrow goes before buying your currency.

If you would like a free quote then feel free to contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Flat week for Sterling so far with little economic data out – What does the rest of the week hold? (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has had a fairly slow start to the week against all major currencies, as we have seen very little in the way of economic data released leading towards the end of the month.

We do have a few points of note later on in the week mainly concerning Europe, Canada and America.

Swiss employment figures are however due at 08:15am tomorrow morning which is one point of note for anyone following the Swiss Franc.

Shortly after that we have German unemployment figures at 08:55am which although is a fairly important release however it appears no change in unemployment rates is expected but any differential to the expectation of 6.7% could lead to a volatile morning for the Euro.

later on in the day at 13:30pm we do have U.S GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures which will show growth over in the states during a specific period and can actual lead to market volatility for all major currencies as it may have an effect on global attitude to risk.

Friday we round the week off for the Euro with European inflation and employment  figures with year on year inflation expected to come out at 0.8%   and unemployment to remain at 11.5% (much worse than that of the U.K and US).

Canada release their GDP figures later on in the afternoon at 13:30pm and one thing to be fairly wary of is month end flows which we do tend to see fairly often on the last day of the month. This can cause volatility for all major currencies in any direction so Friday is a good day to ensure you have someone watching the market for you.

If you do not currently use a currency broker or you feel you could be getting a little more out of the broker you currently use in terms of exchange rate and service then it may be prudent to contact me directly.

I pride myself on keeping clients fully up to date with market movements and our exchange rates have won numerous awards so I would be surprised if I couldn’t save you money too.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to give you a call to explain the service and quote you if you wish.

Bank of England Comments put pressure on Sterling (Tom Holian)

Bank of England member Ben Broadbent said today that weak UK pay growth could persist leading to problems for inflation and therefore when to put up interest rates. He went on to say that the Bank of England would not raise interest rates until there was a period of stronger wage growth.

The two recent inflation data including the Quarterly Inflation Report and the RPI last week showed a fall and a disparity between wages which led to Sterling falling across the board against both the Euro and the US Dollar.

Indeed, last week the BoE halved its forecast for wage growth this year to 1.25 percent, prompting some economists to push back forecasts of when interest rates will rise. Sterling Euro exchange rates hit a 2 year high in late July owing to increased speculation that interest rates would go up in the UK sooner than expected but this recent news means that a rate rise could be put back further in to the future. If this is the case I would expect investors to overlook the Pound and keep their funds elsewhere which could lead to Sterling weakness continuing.

During the Jackson Hole symposium taking place this weekend Broadbent suggested that the BoE and the FED need to look at unemployment data as well as wages before a policy change occurs.

UK GDP has ben strong as well as unemployment which possibly led to 2 of the 9 members earlier this month voting for a UK rate increase from 0.25% to 0.75% but for me I think this recent inflationary evidence means that UK interest rates will not be going up anytime soon. Therefore, I would expect Sterling to fall early this week.

For information about how to save money when buying currency or if you’d like a free quote to buy or sell currency then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

GBP Overview (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been a mixed week for Sterling, following a run of inconsistent economic data releases. The Pound lost position against the EUR early in the week as UK inflation data came out worse than expected. However, just as it looked as though the EUR may start to build some positive momentum the Pound fought back, following the release of the latest Bank of England (BoE) minutes. These showed that two of the central banks members had voted in favour of an interest rate hike, news which immediately helped to boost market sentiment in the Pound, moving GBP/EUR rates back through 1.25 on the exchange.

Considering the up and down nature of this particular trading week it shouldn’t have been a surprise when the markets were once again thrown by worse than expected UK Retail Sales figures, which were released yesterday. The effects of this has now culminated in GBP/EUR floating just below the 1.25 level during this morning’s trading , with little movement expected today due to the relative lack of UK & Eurozone activity.

The USD continues to show an improvement against the Pound and following the release of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes, the USD moved back under 1.66 on the exchange. This recent trend of USD strength has helped to alleviate some pressure on the green back, which has found itself handicapped by a stagnant economy over recent months.

Are we now finally seeing the recovery many analysts expected the USD to make at the start of 2014 year? I believe we are and the FED’s recent minutes have reaffirmed this belief, indicating that policy makers on a whole are happy with improvements in the job market but more importantly that they may raise interest rates sooner than expected. This news is likely to help the USD continue to strengthen against the Pound, with further gains likely in the short to medium-term. Personally I feel we are now likely to see GBP/USD put pressure back on 1.65, so if you need to purchase USD’s it may be prudent to move sooner rather than later.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currnecies.co.uk

Sterling back below 1.25 against the Euro (Ben Amrany)

After yesterdays bank of England which gave the pound a real boost after two members of the Bank of England voted for interest rate hikes we have seen the pound lose all of its gains against the Euro, USD and the southern hemisphere currencies. The losses have been on average about 0.3%

The Euro is now below 1.25 the Dollar is in the 1.65′s and this is a massive decline compared to two weeks again when the rates were above 1.26 & 1.70 respectively. The losses today occurred when retail figures showed a decline from the anticipated rate and has hindered the pound.

All data at present is having a real time effect on when the markets predict this first interest rate hike in the UK. The quarterly inflation report a couple of weeks ago hindered the pound when interest rate hike expectations were put back to February 2015 at the earliest now and all UK data which comes out negatively can theoretically push back this data back. We are expecting this dip for the pound to cement itself between 1.24 and 1.2550 over the next couple of weeks.

Tomorrow there is no data to note of out of the UK and we could find a very dull end to the week and with a bank holiday on Monday the markets should be flat until Tuesday. If you are looking at buying or selling you may wish to asses things before the long weekend to make sure you do not get caught out of there are any big movements.

With contracts available like forward buying where you can secure what you need now and pay for it at a later stage this can help you budget to the full and give you the peace of mind to know how far your funds are going. For more information on this or any other part of the service we offer please do feel free to contact myselfBen Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk 

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

 

Can we save you money and beat your current quote for currency exchange? Why not try us out, I would be surprised if I cannot beat any bank or brokerage rate which means more money in your pocket (Daniel Wright)

I have had thousands of clients contact me through this site over the past five years and almost every single one has ended up making a saving using the company I work for over their current provider.

When it comes to an online platform for example, generally I would steer clear of using those as although they are fairly convenient, you have nobody working on the rate for you therefore tend to find you aren’t getting the best exchange rate you can.

Also, if you have been using a broker for many years then in my experience, like with anything in life it pays dividends to get a comparison once in a while even if you are fairly comfortable as it is highly unlikely that your exchange rate will be as sharp as it possibly can be.

The beauty of our service is that we are not tied to a particular margin therefore it means that there should be no reason why I can’t make sure I save you enough money to make sure it is worth your while using us, if I can’t then I will be totally honest and tell you to carry on with your current provider – For two minutes of your time getting in touch there really is nothing to lose.

I have clients ranging from small companies buying stock from China to larger companies millions of  Pounds overseas regularly along with private clients sending regular payments over for mortgage payments to premier league footballers buying a villa in Spain.

Feel free to email  me (Daniel Wright) today on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief explanation of your needs and a contact number and I will contact you straight away to let you know what I can offer and how the service works. We have won numerous national awards for our exchange rates and level of customer service so if you have found the information on this site of use so far it would be well worth you getting in touch.

Are you placing too high an expectation on sterling exchange rates rising?

So today the unexpected happened and two members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty both voted to raise interest rates citing improvements in the economy and expectations wage growth could soon rise in line with inflation which has been falling. The effects were immediate and sterling spiked up reaching a peak of 1.2546 (GBPEUR) and 1.6679 (GBUSD) offering relief to anyone buying a foreign currency with the pound. The gains were quickly undone however with sterling finishing the day only about 0.1% above the opening on most pairings.

I think this highlights the danger in banking on big improvements in sterling exchange rates in the future. Here we have had the first split vote since 2011 at 7-2 and the effects were rather timid and failed to help lift sterling to the lofty heights we enjoyed a few weeks ago. I think if you need to buy a foreign currency with sterling making some plans now is a wise move since it is difficult to see where any further major boost will emanate from.

Tomorrow are Retail figures plus Government Borrowing data which may all serve to help lift the pound. Both releases were actually negative for sterling last month so if you are in a position to be holding sterling waiting to buy another currency, moving sooner might be the best course of action. To help catch the very best rates we offer STOP LOSS and LIMIT orders which trigger when certain levels are hit. This is often the only way to catch the best rates since the market can move so quickly!

For more information on what is the best approach to your currency situation please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I have been working as a currency broker for 5 years and have lots of experience in the planning and execution of international payments. I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan

 

Bank Of England Minutes Show Mixed View On Interest Rates 7-2; Sterling Rallies (Colm Gilhooly)

The pound has been under pressure since last weeks Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report whereby the prospect of an interest rate hike was pushed back as predicted.  This was reinforced by yesterday’s fall in inflation from 1.9% to 1.6% (the figure had been expected at 1.8%), so it would suggest inflation is not a concern for the moment that would require an interest rate hike to curb it.

However the Bank of England Minutes just published showed a split of 7-2 in favour of holding rates, and sterling has rallied back this morning.  The news still suggests we are a way off a hike as it will take 5 members to approve it, however it does make it a bit more likely than it was prior to this announcement.  I still think we need a consistent period of positive data to merit an interest rate hike and expect this to occur in early 2015, so I wouldn’t expect sterling to rocket up any time soon  This news is more likely to simply provide sterling some support and relief from the sell off over the previous week rather than recover all the losses since the end of July.

Whilst Carney has come under fire in the media for flip-flopping on when interest rates may go up, however I think some people are missing the point.  It isn’t so much when rates will rise that he is focussing on but the fact that increases will be small and measured  ie people and businesses can make longer term investment plans on the back of this rather than worrying that borrowing costs might shoot up 2% in a year and risk a panic or another bust!

There are still areas of concern for the pound including the deficit (let’s see how Public Borrowing comes out on Thursday), and the Scottish Referendum.  Whilst I do not expect Scotland to vote yes, I think this issue needs to be resolved to remove uncertainty hanging over sterling.  To this end I think current levels for the pound represent pretty good value against the Euro, Kiwi, and Aussie for now and would be tempted to buy.  Dollar buyers may want to see what comes out of the FOMC Minutes this evening before making a decision.  If you would like help with a currency transfer or find out what exchange rate we can offer, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

 

Sterling falls following UK inflation data (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has taken another hit today against most major currencies following a fall in the headline inflation rate and taking pressure of the Bank of England to raise interest rates. As a result the pound fell back below 1.25 against the Euro and is now trading at its lowest level against the US dollar since April.

This data comes ahead of tomorrow’s key Bank of England minutes released at 09:30 and another release that may cause the value of sterling to fall. This report will indicate as to how the nine members of the monetary policy committee voted in relation to interest rates and will also give potential clues as to what other monetary policies the central bank may have in store. For me it is likely that the split will have been 9-0 in favour of keeping the UK’s base rate at 0.5% but any surprise results and the pound will be set for another volatile day tomorrow.

Will the pound continue to fall?

For me the pound is likely to remain on the back foot against the US dollar, however I still feel with the continuing threat of deflation in the Euro Zone, the pound will find support and return back to the levels seen in July – for this reason I would suggest the current moves represent a good opportunity if you are selling Euros.

Looking at data to watch out for and tomorrow will also see the release of euro zone construction figures at 10:00 and the FOMC minutes at 19:00. This is the US version of the Bank of England minutes and can cause a shift in dollar exchange rates dependent on the tone of the report.

To get more information regarding the currency service we provide please contact the office on +44 (0)1494 787474 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Inflation Falls leads to Sterling Falls (Tom Holian)

As predicted in one of my previous posts Sterling has begun to fall recently against both the Euro and the US Dollar. This morning saw the eagerly anticipated release of inflation data for the UK. The CPI showed a fall from the expected 1.8% to 1.6%.

Good news for rail passengers as this directly affects how much their train tickets will cost next year but not good news for those looking to buy Euros or Dollars with Sterling. The Pound fell against both the Dollar hitting its lowest point against the dollar since April – and the Euro following the release of the inflation figures.

During July there was a lot of suggestions that interest rates may go up sooner than the markets currently expects but with inflation now falling to its lowest level in many months this means that an interest rate hike may be off the agenda for longer than previously expected.

Tomorrow sees the release of the Bank of England minutes. With 9-0 the expectation any change could see a fightback for the Pound but personally I think this would be rather unlikely.

Moving the focus over to the US all eyes will be on the FOMC minutes due tomorrow evening. With the taper due to end in October I think we’ll see further Dollar strength against both the Euro and Sterling following the release of the data.

Since mid-July Sterling has fallen by 6 cent against the Dollar as by as much as 4% which is the difference of £4,600 on a currency transfer of USD200,000.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank or another currency broker then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

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