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Scotland decides on NO – What impact has this had on the Pound and what may we see for Sterling in the coming weeks? (Daniel Wright)

Scotland decides to stay in the U.K

Following an extremely volatile few weeks for the Pound we finally have the decision from the Scottish referendum and Scotland has decided to stay with the United kingdom giving the pound a little strength against most major currencies.

We saw a huge turnout as far as voting goes (84%) which just goes to show how much this has captivated Scotland and divided opinion north of the border. Sterling has had a roller coaster ride against all major currencies over the past few weeks as polls have swung back and forth both ways after we had months of the markets almost assuming we would see a No vote. More importantly what this means for the Pound is that it has bought both economic and political certainty to the U.K for the time being, both of which should give the Pound a little strength in the coming days.

Investors and speculators alike hate uncertainty and the mere fact that the referendum had seemingly been in the balance has been holding Sterling back recently even with fairly solid economic data still being released almost on a daily basis. Sterling exchange rates have moved around three and a half cents from high to low against the Euro, four cents against the Dollar and ten cents against the Australian Dollar in the past two weeks as the markets try to second guess just what would happen with the vote.

Finally on Friday morning the decision came and I am pleased to say the U.K will indeed remain as one and now hopefully politicians and the Bank of England can fully concentrate on pushing the economy forward as a whole, rather than having to unravel an exceedingly complicated tangle that may have cast a grey cloud over the Pound and kept it weak for months to come.

If you find this site of use and would like assistance with any pending currency transfers involving either buying or indeed selling the Pound then feel free to contact me by email with a brief description of what you are looking to exchange and a contact number and I will be happy to get in touch. You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk

So what does this mean for me if I have currency to exchange?

Being an unprecedented situation, nobody really knows the exact impact this will have on Sterling but in my personal opinion I now feel that the Pound will kick on and gain a little strength over major currencies and heads can now turn towards if or indeed when interest rates may rise.

For those looking to sell foreign currency I would say now could be the time to secure your exchange rate. If you take the Euro as an example, it was only a few weeks ago that the European Central Bank not only cut interest rates but also indicated a few changes in Fiscal policy coming up.

Most notable of these is QE (Quantitative Easing). QE can generally weaken a currency once put into place and was one of the big reasons we saw both Sterling and the Dollar weaken a lot over the past few years. In my opinion once the dust has settled over the referendum the focus will come back on to Europe which still has huge problems to tackle and I feel the Euro could be in for a tough time of things.One must remember however we have crossed this bridge before and The Euro is a powerful beast. Only two years ago most analysts expected a rise through 1.30 when the Euro had even more problems than they do today and within a few months it was back below 1.20.

In essence the key thing you need to make sure you do is to keep in close contact with a currency broker no matter what your requirement in these particularly volatile times. Here at FCD we pride ourselves on not only the very best rates of exchange but also in being extremely proactive for our clients, making them aware of any spikes in their favour or drops against them.

We can’t let you know if we aren’t aware of what you are looking to do so make sure you email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help you personally. Sterling is trading at over a two year high against the Euro, a two week high against the Dollar and the highest we have seen against the Australian Dollar since March this year. If you would like to speak with one of our experienced and knowledgeable traders about any currency pairing then feel free to call us on 01494 787 478 or email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to call you personally.

Scotland says No which helps GBPEUR Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates briefly hit their highest level in over two years on early Friday morning as the Scottish voted to stay part of the United Kingdom. The Pound immediately shot up to 1.28 for a very short time before ending the day nearer to 1.27.

It appears as though global investors and short term profit takers were eager to ‘fill their boots’ at 1.28 immediately after the announcement.

With the news having been released the currency markets appear at least for now to be a little more settled. The vote was 55/45 and personally I thought it would have been a wider difference.

Many people have been asking me recently if Scotland stays part of the UK then surely this would give rise to Sterling strength. My answer is yes but only for a short period of time as proved on Friday morning.

With such a large amount of people disillusioned at the result this could cause further instability in political terms which often then negatively impacts the currency involved. Therefore, don’t expect Sterling to rise too much just because the vote is now clear.

At 1pm tomorrow ECB President Mario Draghi is due to make a speech which will likely cover the recent decision to cut interest rates and introduce further QE for the Eurozone. Any negative comments during the speech could see Sterling Euro exchange rates pick up later in the afternoon.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Calm before the storm? (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling reached its highest level against the single currency since August 2012 reaching a peak of 1.273 this afternoon – is this the calm before the storm? With the Scottish independence vote well under-way the market is eagerly awaiting the result of the vote expected for release early Friday morning (expected around 07:00). A yes vote is likely to be catastrophic for the pound with some analysts suggesting as much as a 10% drop in value for sterling, in contrast a no vote will bring a sigh of relief to many and I would look for the pound to fund support in excess of 1% across the major currencies.

Should you wish to remove the uncertainty our trading lines will be open for another few hours and there is still time to help. Email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

As against the Euro, sterling has continued its strong rally against the Australian dollar having shifted 10 cents in last 10 days (5.8%). This makes a difference of AUD 20,000 on a £200k transfer.

Data from Australia has been relatively light this week highlighting how dominant sterling has been and just how the Scottish independence vote is influencing the value of the pound. With voting having started this morning and the results scheduled for 07:30 tomorrow morning, the next 24 hours are likely to be extremely volatile. I for one believe the ‘no’ camp will prevail and this is bound to lend further support to sterling and I would look for a shift towards 1.85.

Overnight the RBA bulletin gave little insight as to future monetary policy but I still believe the RBA will be uncomfortable with the value of the dollar and this 10 cent shift will have been a welcome move

To get assistance with your foreign exchange and to get the best deal on the market email Mike for more information at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Scottish Referendum and impact on Sterling Euro Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

The day is finally here for the eagerly anticipated Scottish referendum and with recent opinion polls showing the votes still very close it will provide the currency markets with potentially large swings in either direction for Sterling Euro exchange rates. Indeed, less than 2 weeks ago following a poll released over the weekend we began the trading session with Sterling having fallen by 1% against both the Euro and the US Dollar.

It appears at the moment as though the No vote will succeed which is good news for the United Kingdom but the uncertainty that is still around will likely discourage investors from holding the Pound during today’s session so we could see big currency movements both today and tomorrow.

Even if the No vote does win it is likely that a significant amount of Scottish people will be disillusioned with the process which is likely to increase political uncertainty. Indeed, if Cameron’s recent pledge to allow Scotland more power in Westminster where then will Wales and Northern Ireland stand?

Currency does not like uncertainty and with the votes being counted over the next few hours today is likely to be very volatile for anyone with a Sterling requirement. Therefore, even if a No vote does go through don’t expect Sterling to rally significantly.

If you have a currency transfer to make and are worried about today’s referendum and the impact it may have on your exchange rate then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Scottish Referendum still dominating the headlines and causing wide swings for sterling exchange rates. (Ben Amrany)

So we are getting closer and closer to the key Scottish referendum tomorrow. The markets over the last couple of weeks have been extremely volatile purely on the back of will the YES or NO campaign be victorious. We are expecting voting to start tomorrow with the decision filtering through in the early hours of Friday morning.

The way that I see it is as follows. There is likely to be a major reaction for sterling, whichever way the vote goes. A vote for independence will highly likely result in a massive sterling sell-off causing the pound to fall by as much as 10% over the coming weeks and months. A vote for Scotland to remain in the UK is likely to lead to a significant relief rally for the pound and we could see a slight gain from the current trading levels.

One of the main reasons why the pound could decline by so much and for so long should the YES campaign win would be due to the reaction from the Bank of England. Interest rate hikes could be pushed back further from the expected Spring 15 target and another bout of Quantitative easing has been muted to get the markets moving should the unlikely happen. This could be disastrous for those looking at buying EUR, AUD, NZD & USD.

For those looking at selling the pound the risk to gain ratio is not worth taking the gamble on what may occur. With the polls so close at the moment the risks of losing thousands of the currency you need to buy by waiting until after the vote could be extremely costly and we have seen many clients capitalise on the current rates due to the uncertainty. Although we believe the NO vote to independence will happen it is not inconceivable that the polls and bookies are incorrect and we could be in for one of the largest historical shocks of our time.

So if you need to buy or sell sterling and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest data releases and exchange rate movements then speak with myself Ben Amrany and I will explain the options available to you and how best to minimise any risks you have on the currency.  You can email me at bma@currencies.co.uk 

In other news the Minutes from the Bank of England’s last interest rate decision showed no change in the voting with a split of 7-2 not voting for a rate hike. Unemployment also dipped slightly which assisted the pounds gains so now eyes will be firmly on retail figures tomorrow and that key vote.

Thank you for reading.

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

 

 

 

The Scottish Referendum, Inflation, Jobs, Bank of England, AND US Federal Reserve All Impacting On GBP Exchange Rates (Colm Gilhooly)

Where to start today?  The Scottish Referendum, EU inflation, UK jobs, Bank of England Minutes, US inflation, and the Federal Reserve rate announcements all fighting for headline space so let’s be quick.

No change from the Bank of England as expected, but UK unemployment rates have fallen again which is good news for the UK economy.  EU inflation was either on or slightly above forecast depending on which measure you look at, although it still won’t be significant enough for the ECB to be able to say their recent measures are working quite yet.  Later today we have US inflation, with the Fed Reserve decision due at 7.00 this evening UK time- US data of late has been getting better and there is a chance the Fed may signal they are getting closer to an interest rate rise.  If this is the case it could be a shot in the arm for the Dollar, although a more dovish stance could see the Dollar give up some of its gains.

All of this is being dwarfed by the Scottish Referendum- recent polls put the No Campaign ahead at 52% and sterling rallied over the last 24 hours.  However the margin for error is still too great for markets to have any certainty.  The general guide seems to be that a No vote on Thursday will see sterling experience a relief rally and gain some ground.  A Yes vote however could see a sharp drop in sterling’s value as markets and bookmakers are still pricing in a No vote at present.
To this end, and with so much at stake, why not get in touch and see what rates and contract options we can offer?  You can even fix your exchange rate for a date in the future if you are worried about the upcoming volatility.  Simply email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

Have you prepared for the Yes vote? Crazier things have happened….

The pound looks likely to continue to rise as the outcome of the referendum is priced in more heavily to be a No vote. Investors are betting that it will indeed be a No vote and this should cause GBP strength. I personally feel a Yes vote is being discounted far too easily…

I think we are looking at greater chance of a Yes vote for the following reasons

- Demographics of the people being polled. I think naturally the more affluent Scots will be the ones most likely to respond to the polls. The Yes voters are less likely to care about the economic arguments and favour the Yes vote for Nationalistic and emotive reasons. I

-  The ‘Braveheart’ factor. Once put in the booth and owing to the way the question is framed will many a Scot feel inclined to support their Scottish heritage or the less understood British roots?

Some reports have factored the losses for sterling at 10% if it is a Yes vote. I personally would expect around 5% losses if we see the Yes vote but with a further decline longer term once the vote has been digested. Sterling is favoured because they expect the UK to raise rates next year, losing Scotland may lead to more QE and we could be at 1.15 on GBPEUR by Christmas, 1.50 on GBPUSD.

I think the Yes vote is being too heavily discounted and suggest anyone considering making a currency exchange in the coming weeks and months utilise a Stop / Loss and Limit order. Simply put this guarantees you wont lose more than you need and if it spikes higher you get the better rates.

To discuss strategies to maximise your exchange rate please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I work as a specialist foreign exchange broker in the UK assisting clients all over the world manage their FX strategy.

Scottish Vote and how it may impact GBPEUR Rates (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates are still eagerly anticipating the outcome of the Scottish referendum due to be held on Thursday.

Sterling has fallen overnight against all major currencies as the uncertainty continues and with inflation data out shortly if this is lower than the expected 1.5% we could see a fall for the Pound.

Inflation data is key for the economy as it will have a direct impact on when the Bank of England may look to raise interest rates. Last week governor Mark Carney suggested that interest rates may not rise until Spring next year but with the BoE minutes due out in the morning any change from the 7-2 vote last month could see volatility for Sterling Euro rates.

Wednesday sees the release of UK unemployment data as well as inflation data for the Eurozone. With the referendum results also to be added in to the melting pot I think we could see an enormous range for GBPEUR rates during the next few days.

It may be worth looking at placing Limit Orders which allows you to set a pre-determined rate that is not yet available. This should be free of charge and a service provided by a currency broker.

For more information and if you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

How will the Scottish Referendum Impact Sterling Exchange Rates? (Tom Holian)

We have seen Sterling exchange rates move by as much a 2% during the course of last week’s trading against the Euro as the news about the Scottish referendum dominates the headlines. As we started last week we saw a fall of 1 cent against the single currency following the release of a poll suggesting that the Yes vote was ahead.

However, with the three leading political leaders actively canvassing for more votes north of the border and many large businesses now moving towards the ‘No’ vote I think we could see a vote on Thursday to keep the United Kingdom together.

Already, John Lewis, Asda & Marks and Spencer have suggested that business costs will rise if Scotland gains independence and with such uncertainty surrounding the whole issue I think we’ll see Sterling strengthen during this week.

However, the one thing that currency dislikes is uncertainty and with just a few days to go before the referendum I think we could still see a few large swings on Sterling exchange rates which highlights the need to use a currency broker who can keep you up to date with exchange rate movements but also explain how Limit Orders can work to your advantage.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

 

A Volatile Week for the Pound (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been a volatile week for GBP, with uncertainty surrounding the Scottish referendum having a negative impact on the Pound. We started the week with news of a poll that had the vote at 51% in favour of Scottish independence and this sent the markets into panic mode, with GBP/EUR rates dropping by over a cent. Since then we have heard mixed opinions from various figureheads but it does seem as if the initial poll was distorted and in fact the No vote was still the preference of the majority.

GBP/EUR rates are now reflecting this opinion, with a move back towards 1.26 during yesterday’s trading. We’ve also heard from Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark carney this week, who indicated we may see an interest rate hike in the UK by Spring 2015. This is the first time he has given a specific timeframe and this news also helped to support Sterling recovery, from the early week losses against both the EUR & USD.

GBP/USD rates have also seen a number of spikes this week with the USD still holding firm in the low 1.60’s, as it continues to realign itself against GBP after a rocky few months. It now seems inevitable that we will see GBP/USD head back below 1,60 on the exchange and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this before the end of the year.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on mtv@currencies.co.uk

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