Theresa May suggests January trigger of Article 50, luckily Euro and Dollar buyers still see improvements today (Daniel Charles Johnson)
Theresa May has let the cat out of the bag in regards to invoking article 50 – An appraisal on buying Euro and Dollar rates
Northern Ireland’s deputy First Minister, Martin McGuinness has revealed that Theresa May told him Article 50 would be triggered in early 2017. This ties in with the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk’s statement that May had said the same thing to him earlier in the month.
I think Sterling has been stuck in limbo post -Brexit, GBP/EUR unable to break through the 1.20 barrier. I think without decisive action with regards to starting trade negotiations it will be difficult for Sterling to rally. There is uncertainty among investors and they are reluctant to make a move.
Many economists are predicting that once article 50 is invoked Sterling will plummet in value. Personally I am not so pessimistic, I think we may see a short term fall in the pound’s value but then a slow rally can begin against most major currencies. It is important to remember there are some serious worries for both the Euro and the Dollar.
Deutsche Bank – The share price has been halved. Merkel is against a bailout. There has been warning of a possible Lehman Brothers style collapse. Personally, I remember what Gecko said at the end of Wall Street, they are too big to fail, but this was enough to allow the Euro to slide and ground to be recovered significantly for Euro buyers today, with GBP/EUR rallying by over a cent.
Some other factors to consider:
Greece – Massive debt repayments to the IMF which will likely not be met.
Italian Bad Loans – Currently in excess of €360bn – many debts will have to be written off which will have serious connotations on the Italian economy.
Shockingly bad inflation – Draghi is throwing the kitchen sink at the problem and there has been no improvement.
Trump – If he gets in, expect USD to drop quickly in value. His words alone have been enough to wipe 10% off the value of the Mexican Peso and he has threatened to limit trade with China which could be catastrophic for the US economy. Trillion was a figure I thought we used in the playground for something unbelievably large, something beyond belief. But, these are the terms we are using at the potential loss to US GDP.
With polls suggestively closing following a still ill-tempered but largely mild-mannered approach by Trump to the debate, a close race could create further problems for anyone holding USD. In an evolving climate it is imperative that you are in a position to move quickly should the currency markets begin to reflect this.
If you have a buying or selling Euros or Dollars I am particularly proficient at putting together individual trading strategies to suit my clients’ needs.
For example, booking a long forward for a client who wishes to take advantage of 31yr record highs on USD/GBP or using a Stop/Loss combined with a Limit order for client on a short time sale who wants to minimise cost on a property purchase and the potential risk involved.
I treat a client’s money as if it were my own and I will do my utmost to get the client the highest possible return on their trade. If you would like assistance with your trading requirements please do get in touch by e-mailing me at firstname.lastname@example.org and I will respond to you as soon as I am able.
Anyone with a Euro and Dollar buying requirement are now entering a phase where a new ongoing narrative will be continuing to influence the currency markets, the US election cycle.
Anyone with a GBP/EUR requirement may question why their situation would be affected by the US election? Simply put it heavily influences global attitude to risk. With the current climate in the leave-vote atmosphere, risk is everything.
The Pound’s value has been hit repeatedly in recent months precisely because of its instability and the risk involved in holding Sterling whilst the UK’s economic future has come into question.
We are now entering the heavy campaign season in the US. The election is only a month away, and Trump is closing on Clinton. She can no longer be comfortably deemed the front-runner, and therefore we may be seeing the surprise result in the US election as we had in the EU Referendum. We have little understanding about what Trump’s cryptic plan is for the social and economic fabric for the world’s largest economy, and with the expected Republican majority in their Congress, he could have largely free reign. As such the same anticipation is becoming heavily visible in the market place as it was in the lead up to the June vote.
Heightened global risk means that the Pound no-longer appears as the black sheep among its global currency counterparts who are enjoying greater stability.
In reality the UK’s recent ability to weather the storm of the Brexit vote is being viewed with a more positive tone from investors. With China leaking noises of further crisis and the US economy entering a heavily uncertain period (which was so strong they decided not to raise interest rates there this month despite their recent economic performance suggesting the economy could handle the move), the Pound should enjoy having some pressure relieved with the spotlight being pointed elsewhere.
So those with a buying Euro and Dollar requirement have breathed a sigh of relief with GBP/EUR and GBP/USD both recording marginal gains to begin the day.
Further revelations on business confidence in the US will come with an assessment of attitude in the financial services sector of the US economy at 4pm today, which could see this rally for the Pound continue.
In this current hypersensitive market a premium is put on being in a position to move quickly should any tempting opportunities emerge in the time period you have to complete your transfer.
With so much of the current market governed by politics (US Election, Brexit) rather than economics, the landscape can also change much more quickly. I offer a very proactive service to keep my customers informed of any potential changes in the currency landscape to assist you in planning for an upcoming transfer in the short or medium turn.
I recommend that if you have a Euro or Dollar buying requirement in particular to contact me today on email@example.com to discuss the options open to you to make sure any attractive levels that you are aiming for are seized immediately should they become available, and that you are not ‘last to the party’. There is also the potential to safeguard your transfer from any adverse movements.
As a point of note I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere to my current customers, and if you are not a regular reader, you should also be aware that current buying levels available can be fixed in place for a future transfer – essentially allowing you to ‘pre-book’ your currency and avoid the risk entirely from the current market. Given this I can confidently say that a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.
Euro and Dollar sellers can also get in contact for an immediate quote now that we have touch back to these fresh lows on GBP/EUR and GBP/USD only a few days ago.
Please feel free to fill out the form below and I will be in contact as soon as I am able.
What will happen to Sterling exchange rates this week? The Great British Brokerage – Don’t settle for second best….(Daniel Wright)
The Pound has yet again had a torrid start to the week and appears to be finding that it has very few supporters out there at present.
Sterling exchange rates have dropped off against every major currency and with very little economic data out this week until Friday it is hard to see where the catalyst for the fight back will come from.
The markets are kicking the Pound whilst it is down and you can see why… if you were a big investor due to put money into a business, would you proceed with that investment not knowing what the actual plans for the business were over the next few years? More than likely not unless you have a high appetite for risk.
With this in mind big investors and speculators are at present leaving the U.K and indeed the Pound alone, settling for safer options. In the world of supply and demand, the demand for Sterling has dropped off and so therefore the value of the Pound has followed suit.
There are plenty of reasons why other currencies may start to weaken off but none seem to be impacting matters as much as the referendum has hit the Pound. You have lots of problems politically and with the European economy, the U.S election is about to get into full swing and both Australia and New Zealand are suffering a little due to their currency being too strong.
As we move into October anyone looking to buy foreign currency with the Pound will need to hope for economic data to continue to be solid post referendum and this will give the Pound a chance of coming back a little, although I hate to write negative posts about Sterling performance unless this data is good then the Pound may suffer as we approach the Christmas period.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out involving buying or selling the Pound then you need not worry as I can help you every step of the way. The brokerage I work for is one of the longest standing and one of the few privately owned currency brokerages left in the U.K.
We can cater for clients all over the world and have access to the very top rates of exchange due to our large buying power and we also try to ensure that we keep clients fully up to date with market movements, along with explaining to them in simple terms the various options that they have in front of them.
If you feel that I (Daniel Wright) may be of use to you then you are more than welcome to contact me personally. You can email me on firstname.lastname@example.org and I will be more than happy to get in touch as soon as I can.
At the end of trading last week the pound plummeted against all of the major currencies. Foreign Minister and former Mayor of London Boris Johnson claimed that the UK are getting ready to trigger article 50. However Martin Schulz was in London Friday and had a meeting with UK Prime Minister Theresa May, he stated that he felt that the UK Government is undecided about how and when to trigger article 50.
I am in doubt the dip in sterling exchange rates is due to the Brexit news on Friday. Rumour has it that Article50 will be triggered early next year, however until then I believe the uncertainty will continue to put pressure on the pound and investor confidence, therefore a contraction in the UK economy is just around the corner.
The Office for National Statistics reported last week that they feel confidence in the Service sector has dropped, however last months figure certainly didn’t support this, as they showed a record rise. The Service sector figures are so important as they make up 80% of GDP, therefore if the ONS are correct we should expect further falls for the pound in the future.
With the pound falling approximately 1% against all major currencies Friday, I wouldn’t actually be surprised to see the market level out Monday morning and the pound therefore make back some of the losses. If this is the case this could be the best levels we are going to see this week.
Looking ahead for the week the two data releases to look out for are Mortgage approvals Thursday morning and Gross Domestic Product numbers Friday morning.
The mortgage approvals data gives a good indication to the health of the housing market and therefore investment into the UK and GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced by the UK.
Both data releases could hurt the pounds value as its been reported people are holding off buying property in the UK until they know the impact Brexit will have on the housing market. Furthermore if the ONS are correct and are expecting falls in the service sector this will have a detrimental impact to GDP numbers.
If you are reading this website in order to find out information in regards to buying or selling the pound I can help you get the best exchange rates on the market whilst keeping you up to date with economic information. Its important to analyse both currencies you will be trading therefore I would recommend emailing me with the(GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company email@example.com.
** IF YOU ARE ALREADY USING A BROKERAGE TO BUY YOUR CURRENCY IT WILL TAKE TWO MINUTES TO EMAIL FOR A COMPARISON AND I AM CONFIDENT I WILL BEAT ANY PRICE YOU ARE CURRENTLY RECEIVING **
We ended the week with Sterling Euro exchange rates coming under pressure following comments from our Foreign Minister Boris Johnson who has claimed that the UK are getting ready to start the triggering of Article 50 early next year.
On the previous weekend European Council President Donald Tusk suggested that in a meeting with Theresa May she mentioned that the UK would be looking at starting negotiations by February 2017. However, the story did’t really go anywhere during this week and it wasn’t until Boris Johnson spoke out that the Pound has really come under pressure against the Euro.
We have now hit the lowest level to buy Euros since August 2013 but on the flip side if you’re buying Sterling with Euros this is good news and we could possibly see rates improving for Euro sellers going into next week.
The uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote in June saw Sterling fall by over 10 cents in a single day and with Article 50 looking more likely to actually happen with a possible start date in 2017 this could see Sterling exchange rates fall even further.
The media reports over this weekend are likely to focus on Boris’s comments and it will be interesting to see how this is reflected in confidence for Sterling exchange rates.
Personally I cannot see the Pound make any gains in the short term until this is resolved and we have a plan going forward.
Uncertainty for currency is what causes it to weaken and the uncertainty of what will happen to the UK and its relationship with the European Union will inevitably weigh heavily on Sterling Euro exchange rates.
I have worked in the industry and will be celebrating my 13th anniversary on Thursday and have worked through the credit crunch, various general elections both here and in Europe and the Scottish referendum. The foreign exchange market is cyclical but at the moment it is difficult to see any positive movements for Sterling Euro rates at least in the short term.
Next Friday the UK releases second quarter GDP figures and I think this could see Sterling Euro rates fall even further. If you need to buy Euros in order to protect yourself against further losses then you may wish to consider buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for the future.
Alternatively, have you considered a Stop Loss which means if the market falls further then you will have a guaranteed lowest level. You can choose an exchange rate that you don’t want to buy below which also is used to protect any further falls on your price.
To find out more and if you need to make a currency transfer soon then feel free to contact me for a free quote. Having been working in the industry for 13 years I am confident of saving you money on your exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your trade.
Feel free to contact me by emailing me directly Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org or fill in the form below. I look forward to hearing from you.
The rollercoaster ride of 2016 on sterling exchange rates is far from over! There are still numerous events up ahead to trigger large unexpected swings that will impact the value of your currency purchase, have you made any plans for this? Understanding how markets react, all of your options and having a helpful hand to guide you through will offer a real advantage to securing the best rate of exchange.
Economic data in the UK is not the main driver for the pound, the big factor is political concerns relating to the Brexit plus attitutudes to the UK viewed from a global perspective. Take the USD this week, we saw a big devaluing in the value of sterling for no real reason other than the fact the USD was appreciating in value in the face of a possible US Interest rate rise. Sterling was sold off as traders backed the buck – more on this later. Numerous data sets showing a relatively healthy UK economy should be taken with a pinch of salt until we get the firm economic data for the the quarter since the Referendum next month.
Sterling exchange rates will remain volatile and lacking direction until we get clear direction from the UK Government as to when Article 50 will be triggered. For now clients buying and selling the pound will have to contend with the mixed messages emanating from politicians. Theresa May has said she is in no rush to trigger Article 50, Boris Johnson indicated this week it might be early 2017 – and was soon lambasted for saying this.
Looking at some of the big banks predictions on sterling rates offers little help. Lloyds are predicting 1.20 by the year end whilst Dankse Bank are showing 1.08! All in all if you are looking to buy the pound there are likely to be further improvements between now and the New Year. Much will of course depend on which currency you are holding on what happens. If you are selling US Dollars will a Trump Presidency send the USD into freefall? Or will the steady hand of Clinton see the US raise interest rates at Christmas? If you are selling Euros will a decline in Eurozone economic activity trigger a further round of Quantitative Easing by the ECB? Or will renewed confidence in the region stem from uncertainty elsewhere?
It is currently the best time to buy the pound with US Dollars in 30 years and the best in 3 years with Euros. This isn’t great news if you are holding pounds looking to US Dollars, Euros or any other currency but as you can see things could get easily get worse for sterling.
In such an uncertain market with no clear direction a careful examination of all of your options including the Stop Loss and Limit order is crucial. A Stop Loss limits any losses if rates fall, a Limit order guarantees a price if rates rise. A forward contract allows you to lock in today’s rate for settlement up to 18 months in the future.
It is almost six months ago today I was asked to speak on the BBC regarding the Brexit. At the time I suggested that on a Leave vote the UK economy would not just wither away. I pointed to the hundreds of thousands of businesses and consumers doing trade across border and highlighted how even on a Leave vote those links would remain. I discussed with the interviewer how nothing would change quickly and markets would have time to digest any news following an initial shock. All of this has so far proved true and it is with confidence I predict that the coming months will not see any fundamental changes in the situation, I believe that will all be reserved for 2017. However there will be lots of movement on the pound as the markets react to all manner of speculation and rumour just like it has since and leading up to the vote.
If you wish to discuss all of your options, the market and what to look out for on the rates please speak to me Jonathan by emailing email@example.com. I am Chief Analyst and Associate Director of the UK’s largest privately owned foreign exchange PLC brokerage and have been working for our company for 7 years of the 17 it has been in business. If you have a transaction to make I will discuss with you all of the options available and everything happening in the market to help you maximise your exchange rate. Even if you believe you have everything covered it might be useful for another pair of eyes to have a look to provide some useful information.
The UK received another boost yesterday after manufacturing data from the Confederation of Business industry (CBI) showed British manufacturing grew strongly in September. UK car manufacturing reached the highest level in August for 14 years and highlighted an increase of 10.2% in vehicle exports. Despite the strong numbers the pound was largely unaffected with little market movement as the concerns over Brexit still remain which is keeping the downward pressure on sterling exchange rates.
UK GDP numbers released next week and could create some major volatility for the pound. The markets are largely concerned with how well the British economy is performing post Brexit and the GDP numbers are the proof. Any sign of weakening that can be attributed to Brexit is likely to have a negative impact on the pound. My understanding is that GDP should hold relatively steady and if this is the case then we could see another rally for sterling exchange rates.
GBP EUR has now dropped 5 cents in the last 2 weeks and it looks like there will be further to fall for this pair. Longer term and my view is that the pound should strengthen but not until Article 50 has been invoked and trade negotiations are well underway between Britain and the EU. For the moment the pound is in a weaker position with the Brexit jitters still on investors’ minds. GBP USD should see a rally in the coming week as we approach the US presidential election and high volatility is to be expected.
If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.
Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me James Lovick directly on firstname.lastname@example.org and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.
Today has been the first day since last Friday where the net result for the day is actually in the green for anyone considering buying Euros, US Dollars or Australian Dollars. Whilst the gains are not enough to send anyone jumping around the room, it is a signal to markets that the narrative surrounding the Pound has changed.
Part of this is that there has been some positive news today from the UK itself, with confirmation that car manufacturing numbers have reached a record high post-Brexit producing a diamond from what has been a rough week for Sterling across the board.
So the cheap Pound is boosting exports, but this is struggling to challenge the dominant narrative surrounding the Pound which has been interest rates. But again, we are seeing some respite in this area for Euro and Dollar buyers.
The reason for the slide on the Pound which this website has extensively covered was due to the heavy hints last Thursday that there may be a further interest rate cut in the UK before the turn of the year. Coupled with the profit taking activities by speculators on Friday afternoons, the effect this had on the Pound was severe with 2 cent losses on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD last Friday.
The pressure was also piled on Sterling as the USA were on the verge of actually raising rates yesterday evening, yet shied away at the last moment. Indirectly, this would have made the Pound seem like a less attractive commodity by comparison if the Dollar had raised interest rates. The avoidance of this means the Pound won’t be losing value in this area due to decreased demand.
Tomorrow the main attraction for currency markets will be business confidence figures in the Eurozone for their service and manufacturing sectors, which are set to slow a slight decrease from previous months due to some of the recent slowdowns recorded in Eurozone’s powerhouse economy – Germany. This should creating tempting opportunities on GBP/EUR to compliment the 0.7 cent rise seen today.
However, Friday profit taking should come around the corner once more for anyone with an upcoming currency requirement, whether buying Euros or Dollars.
As the above paragraph alluded to, on Fridays high street traders who have been speculating heavily on the currency markets all week must allocate their profits in a stable currency whilst they are away from their desks. This protects their gains whilst markets are still operating from 6-11pm on Friday and 2-6am on Monday before they return. The Pound has been anything but stable in recent weeks, so we are seeing demand for it plummet during this period, and therefore its value by association.
So based on the current expectations Euro buyers in particular could see some improved opportunities during the first part of tomorrow, yet Euro and Dollar buyers alike will likely suffer.
If you have a GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, or GBP/AUD requirement in the short to medium term I strongly recommend contacting me this evening or tomorrow morning on email@example.com whilst markets are quieter to discuss the options open to you to ensure any tempting peaks which emerge tomorrow are reached, and that your currency purchase is safeguarded from any particularly adverse movements.
With the expected volatility tomorrow a well timed transfer could save you thousands on an upcoming purchase, and I will highlight that I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere in the past.
Euro or Dollar buyers can also fix the rate of exchange ahead of an upcoming transfer, essentially pre-booking your currency, to avoid seeing the budget of any future purchase being eaten into.
Euro and Dollar sellers alike can also get in contact to discuss the potential to secure any highs reached to buy the Pounds during the final hours of the week, as you can secure a desired level should it become available even for a few moments outside of UK trading hours. You can fill out the form below and I respond as soon as I am able to.