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The Brexit Fallout (Daniel Charles Johnson)

The impact of Brexit is clearly evident on the currency market. Sterling is it the lowest levels since ’85 against the Dollar and the Euro is battering at the 1.20 resistance barrier. The resignation of David Cameron also does not bode well. In times of political uncertainty the currency in question usually weakens. The next Prime minister is due to be elected on 2nd September and whoever is voted in will have the task of bringing the UK’s economy back to a position of stability. I feel Sterling could be in for a rough time short term and I doubt to see many positive data releases over the coming weeks to assist in a rally for the Pound. I think once the Bank of England have made there stance clear, a Prime minister  is in place and the markets have settled the Pound will gain strength.

If you are currently buying Sterling you are in an extremely favorable position. With the majority of major currencies at record highs against the Pound. Although there could be further falls for Sterling it is important to keep in mind the factors that could affect the value of the currency  you are selling. For example the Euro is in trouble, Greece have stated they will be unable to make there next payment to the International Monetary Fund, France are threatening a referendum of their own and Draghi is still pumping in €80bn a month in an attempt to stimulate growth. If you are selling Euros I would not procrastinate.

Looking at USD, an election looms and as mentioned earlier political uncertainty, generally  causes the currency in question to weaken. The Head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen had indicated at the start of the year there would be several rate hikes in the US this year, none of which has materialised.

Australia is currently going through a general election which is currently very close. So we could see a fall in AUD value. China whom Australia rely on heavily for their exports are also not looking stable. There has been recent stock market crashes, where circuit breakers have been used to cease trading to stop panic selling and the rumors of shadow banking and distorted data figures will not go away.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you let me know the currency pair you will be trading, volume and time scale I will provide an individual trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country which puts me in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. Feel free to contact me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

What will happen to the Pound now the referendum is over? (Daniel Wright)

Well, we have had quite a few days here on the trading floor and I can honestly say I have never been so busy.

Many people are asking me now just where do I see Sterling exchange rates heading next and of course the exact answer is that it is impossible to call but let’s look at what may happen in the coming weeks.

I personally feel that once the dust has settled on the result of the referendum we have a little room for some Sterling recovery. We are already seeing share prices start to creep back up a little and the Pound’s dramatic fall has already seeming stopped as we have seen gains against most major currencies during trading today.

We do have plenty of economic and political uncertainty which will hold the Pound back, but people need to realise that as we stand today there is not a huge amount that has changed, just a lot of doom and gloom in the newspapers and speculation as to what might happen.

Everyone now needs to pull together and try to make the best of this situation and to try and avoid letting our heads get down and the economy following suit and should that happen I would expect Sterling to start to gather pace again and I would not be surprised to see the Pound gain back most of the value recently lost.

A lot of attention may now also be placed onto the Euro, with one economy leaving the EU others may also look to follow suit which may really pressurise the Euro and lead to it weakening off accordingly, making it cheaper to buy.

There is so much out there for the market to feed off of that it is extremely key to ensure if you have any currency exchange to carry out that you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side.

I can help you with any exchange you have personally, I have worked on the currency markets for years and the company I work for assists clients in currency exchanges with award winning rates of exchange and customer service.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch to discuss the various options available to you in the coming weeks and months.

 

 

So what exactly happens next for the UK and the pound?

Sterling is at some exceptionally low levels and is likely to weaken further in the coming days and weeks but until we get concrete news on the new Tory leader and the process of leaving the EU is physically triggered the rates might not have any days similar to last Friday. It is the best time in two years to sell euros for pounds and the best time in 30 years to sell dollars for pounds.

Whilst the pound is sure to remain on the back foot as ripples spread through financial markets, the immediate news is that well there isn’t a great deal to say. The key point of the UK’s withdrawal is the triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which sets out a two year window within which the UK would leave the EU. By resigning David Cameron has sidestepped invoking this Article and it is now down to probably the next Tory leader. With the leadership contest not due until October there is now a window within which we will not know exactly when Article 50 will be invoked. If you have a currency transfer to consider the pound is bound to struggle but until Article 50 is triggered the physical process of leaving the EU is not going to happen. EU leaders are already lining up to encourage this all to happen very quickly but it is highly unlikely this will happen before October. And even then once a new Tory leader is voted in, it might be that they then decide to call a General Election.

What kind of deal will the UK get?

The UK’s deal has to target two key points. One the issue of immigration and two access to the free market. Other countries outside the EU which have deals allowing access to the Single Market require them to accept the free movement of people principles which the UK is unlikely to agree to since this was a central point of the Leave campaign.

In short nothing is going to happen quickly but there is likely to be plenty of uncertainty as investors scramble to make sense of what is around the corner. The Bank of England might seek to cut interest rates or look at more QE to help boost the economy, this is all much further down the line but investors always look to the future.

If you have a transfer to consider keeping up to date with the market is key to make an informed decision. Please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more about what the future holds and how to maximise your transfer.

 

British politics in turmoil, due to ‘Brexit’ (Dayle Littlejohn)

Throughout Friday the pound plummeted against all of the major currencies due to the UK publics decision to the leave the European Union.

UK Prime Minister and Conservative leader David Cameron announced he would be standing down and wanted his predecessor to take over by October. Many believe former Mayor of London Boris Johnson could take over however many of the Conservative MPs feel that Boris betrayed David Cameron for his own political benefit.

This morning half of the Labour MPs have announced they could resign in a bid to remove Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Furthermore, this weekend Hilary Benn announced he had ‘lost confidence’ in Corbyn’s leadership and consequently was sacked.

At the moment it seems like the Conservative party and Labour party are clearly divided which in turn will no doubt put pressure on the UK and consequently the Pound.

What should I expect this week for the pound?

With the FTSE100 down and the pound plummeting on Friday, unfortunately I think there will be more of the same this week. HSBC have already announced they could move 1000 employees from London to France once the UK leaves the European Union. As soon as more businesses start to announce they could be pulling the plug in the UK the pound’s value will fall.

If you have a foreign currency to buy within the next 12 months and do not have all of your Sterling available we can still help before the pound falls further. I would recommend locking into a forward contract, this is where you take today’s exchange rates but pay later for it.

When buying or selling the Pound its important to analyse both currencies that you will be trading (GBPEUR, GBPUSD, GBPAUD). Feel free to email me with the currency pair you are looking to trade and the time-scales you are working too and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

As a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. In addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. This will make you more informed when trading.

Alternatively call me on 01494-787478 and ask to speak to Dayle Littlejohn. I look forward to hearing from you.

Brexit vote results in huge losses for the Pound against the Euro and US Dollar (Tom Holian)

The Brexit vote has caused Sterling to fall by 11 cents against the Euro and 16 cents against the US Dollar as the Pound went into free fall during yesterday’s trading session. This has led to huge demand from clients looking to sell Euros or US Dollars into Sterling.

The vote to Leave the European Union caused a big surprise to financial markets as bookies had given odds of 10-1 on that the UK would vote to Remain just hours before the results came in.

Prime Minister David Cameron has also announced his resignation, which will take place in October, so we have another four months of political uncertainty as well as the economic uncertainty surrounding the European Union issue.

Currency does not like uncertainty and with yesterday’s results this is what caused the Pound to suffer and in my 13 years dealing in the foreign exchange markets I have never seen such huge single day movements for GBPEUR rates and GBPUSD rates during that time.

We could see further struggles for Sterling in the week ahead as the media is likely to hype up the story over the weekend.

Credit ratings agency Moody’s has downgraded the UK’s credit rating outlook to negative as the uncertainty of the vote is likely to lead to big falls in GDP and cause the UK’s economy to struggle.

The result of the referendum could also see a second independence referendum in Scotland as the vote to stay in the European Union in Scotland was huge.

I expect to see Sterling continue to come under pressure next week so if you’re looking at either selling Euros or indeed any other currency to buy Pounds now is an incredible opportunity to do so.

 

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote.

For a quicker response on Monday morning please email me this weekend with your requirement and a phone number. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Will the Pound get weaker?

I’ve received a large number of emails this morning asking whether the Pound will weaken, it is of my opinion that the Pound will weaken in the foreseeable.

There are a number of factors that we need to consider now that the UK has decided to withdraw from the EU. Firstly, we do not have a date for when the UK will officially withdraw from the EU, this creates an extended period of uncertainty for the UK, which could have implications for businesses. Organisations have to make key decisions on how they manage business policies, expenditures, and expansion. Trade could change, prices could change, employment could change.

How will expatriates deal with the news? Will they return to the UK over fears of losing their rights? How will this impact international estate agencies?

But the bigger question, how will this impact the British economy? If the BoE, the majority of economists and financial institutes all agree that a Brexit could pose negative implications on the UK, what impact will this have on the Pound.

If we look at the timeline of events, the Pound slumped on a leave vote, David Cameron stepped down, Scotland are in the midst of calling their own Referendum and this is only just the beginning.

A new Prime Minister will be elected to trigger article 50, the UK will then be given a deal by the EU which the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble states, is unlikely to be a good one.

In my honest opinion, based on the above alone, Pound Sterling may fall further and if I had a large amount of Euro’s or US Dollar’s to buy, I would be doing it sooner rather than later.

What does an EU withdrawal mean for the Pound?

This morning is a historic event for the EU, as much as it is the UK. The first country ever to withdraw from the EU. David Cameron this morning has given his speech to the British public announcing his resignation – rightly or wrongly – stating that the British people need a new leadership to take them through the withdrawal process.

What does this mean for the UK and more importantly, how will this impact the Pound?

The Pound slumped 11% on the outcome of the vote, FTSE fell sharply but both have stabilised in the early hours of trading. GBPEUR rates remain at 1.25, GBPUSD rates fell sharply from 1.50 to 1.32, lows not seen for 3 decades, before regaining ground to 1.39.

The outlook for the Pound looks bearish, David Cameron’s resignation casts further uncertainty over the future of the UK and until we have some clues as to what deal the EU will give the UK, the Pound could continue to fall in the foreseeable.

Those looking to buy pounds are likely to have an extended period of opportunity until it’s understood the wider implications of a Brexit. In the mean-time, existing agreements with the EU will remain frozen until article 50 is triggered. With the announcement of David Cameron’s resignation, this may not be for some time.

That being said, the UK is vulnerable to economic releases, changes in consumer spending and given that inflation is 0.4%, there are concerns by some that the UK may fall into recession.

Mark Carney of the BoE warned of the potential implications of a Brexit, so have a number of economists, business leaders and financial institutes.

As a Pound buyer, a window of opportunity has opened for you.

The Pound’s recovery is contingent on a number of factors. Who will take over as Prime Minister? What deal will the EU provide? Will the UK suffer economically as a result? How will this impact the global economy?

There are such a large number of factors that could impact Sterling and whether you are buying or selling, rates are still attractive either side with GBPEUR rates now at 1.25 and GBPUSD are moving back up to 1.40. The next few weeks and months ahead are shrouded in uncertainty and I would therefore advise you email me at rdl@currencies.co.uk if you have any concerns about the Pound weakening further.

UK votes to Leave! Sterling Slides! What next?

The people have spoken and the UK is out. Whilst at the time of writing it is mathematically possible it would mean almost every vote would have to be Remain, statistically impossible! Sterling has hit 1.3218 on the USD nearly 12% down on yesterday. Sterling has hit 1.2012 against the Euro over 9% down and GBPAUD has slipped 10% nearly hitting 1.79!

If you have a transaction to consider involving buying or selling the pound now is the time to be making some plans from this largely unexpected movement! If you wish to run through or discuss anything this morning please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Great rates are available if you’re worried about today’s vote

Are you worried about the outcome of the EU Referendum? Despite polls, bookmakers and investors alike placing their faith in a Stay, there is always the possibility that they could be wrong. After all, polls are not always indicative of final results and if bookmakers were always right, they wouldn’t lose.

Take the Ireland VS Italy Euro game yesterday, Italy were 2:1 to win, as it happened, they lost to Ireland at 10:1, and there is nothing suggesting that they could be wrong again.

The market, unknowingly continued to trade right into the maelstrom of the recession 8 years ago, mistakes happen.

To add to this, the polls are tight, some show remain ahead, others show lead ahead, some even show a 50:50 split which doesn’t add to confidence.
If we look at current exchange rates, GBPEUR is trading at 1.30, back in April rates were as low as 1.23, a low not seen in over 2 years. In the event of a Brexit, we could return to these times.

More interestingly, GBPUSD is trading at 1.48 and similarly to GBPEUR, rates 2 months ago were at a record low since the recession, a Brexit could see rates return to these lows.

And then there is GBPAUD, which is flirting with the 2.0 range, rates prior to 2015/early 2016 we hadn’t seen since 2009, rates we may not see if the UK opt out of the EU.
The point is this, Sterling is on a high with less than a day before the results, if the UK leave the EU, the Pound could weaken drastically. If you don’t want to risk an opportunity like this, email rdl@currencies.co.uk so I can help you with your currency needs.

Buy Pound Sterling now before it becomes more expensive

It’s almost like the results of the Referendum have already come to light. Investors are piling into the Pound, the bookmakers have upped their odds again of a Remain and the polls yet again, put Remain in the lead.

As it stands, these factors in my opinion, scream BUY Sterling now!

It’s been said again and again that the Pound will soar in the event of a Remain, and this is likely to ring true based on the market movements, confidence in a Remain vote is good for Sterling.

Do you have Euros to sell for Sterling? Current exchange rates of 0.76 are still attractive given that a remain vote could push the currency pair into the lower 0.70’s, rates not seen since the end of last year. The same could be said for US Dollar sellers, levels of mid 0.60’s could be tested in the event of a Remain possibly lower, given the FED’s latest reports on slower US economic growth, pushing hopes of a FED hike back further. These levels again, have not been seen since prior to the new year.

UPDATE 12:30pm
This morning we have witnessed market movements of more than half a cent in favour of GBP, USDGBP has fallen 0.7 cents in the space of 4 hours whilst EURGBP fell half a cent between 10am and 10:30am. Confidence in a Remain is still gaining momentum so in the event you have a requirement for Sterling, email rdl@currencies.co.uk sooner rather than later.

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