The pound has seen an excellent rally against most currencies after a recent run of upbeat UK data. The most recent gains for sterling exchange rates have been as a result of the manufacturing export numbers from the Confederation of Business Industry which arrived at a two year high.
These numbers are for the post Brexit period which gives us some clues as to the real impact of the vote to decide to leave the EU. Furthermore it signals a very buoyant manufacturing sector which is excellent news for the British economy in what is an uncertain period.
The numbers complement the other better data from last week which saw unemployment hold steady at 4.9% but with an improvement in the numbers of individuals claiming unemployment benefit. The bumper retail sales numbers for July also painted a brighter picture for the British economy which have also helped support the pound.
With no UK economic data releases today then focus moves to tomorrows UK GDP numbers for the second quarter. These figures represent the 2nd quarter of 2016 and include the 3 month period in the run up to the referendum.
My view is that there is a chance that these figures may see the very slightest deterioration as many businesses may have scaled things back in the run up to the vote. UK GDP has also been on the decline throughout 2016 so a move lower to 0.5% cannot be ruled out. This would be sterling negative as it would potentially be seen as a precursor to how the economy will react post Brexit.
This data release has the potential to give new direction for the pound tomorrow. Anyone holding pounds to either buy or sell currency would be wise to get in touch to talk through your options.
If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on email@example.com
Sterling has found some much needed support over the early part of the trading week, recovering ground against both the EUR & USD. The Pound has benefited from some improved economic data late last week, with Unemployment data and UK Retail Sales figures coming in better than expected.
This in turn boosted GBP/EUR rates, with the pair hitting 1.1784 at the high and bringing some much needed respite to those clients holding the Pound, following weeks of devaluation. These losses were born out of a complete lack of confidence in the UK economy, with investors risk appetite dissipated by the uncertainty caused by the UK’s decision to exit the EU. This is and will remain to be the underlying reason behind Sterling recent demise, with the Bank of England (BoE) cementing the downfall with their recent interest rate cut. With the possibility of further monetary easing (QE) and/or another rate cut, we may see the situation get worse before it gets better.
GBP/USD rates have seen a similar trend, with the pair falling below 1.30 at the recent low. Despite an improvement above this threshold, I do anticipate a sustained recovery anytime soon, certainly not under current market conditions. The greenback has made huge strides since the turn of the year, in line with economic improvements in the US and despite the political battle between Donald Trump & Hilary Clinton heating up ahead of Novembers election, I do not expect a recovery back towards 1.40 until we at least have some clarity on when and how the British government are likely to facilitate our Brexit.
Once some of this uncertainty has been removed then the Pound has a better chance of recovering its losses but until then I would be looking to protect any short to medium-term Sterling positions, with further market volatility expected.
If you have an upcoming GBP currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, you can email me directly on firstname.lastname@example.org
Well well politicians are a right bunch aren’t they. Just as the UK economy was recovering following the worst financial crisis in living memory we have had the politicians calling this Referendum which has of course knocked confidence and no leaves us with plenty of uncertainty up ahead. It is far to early to be calling Brexit good or bad since we just don’t know what it is at present. For now the UK economy is ticking along nicely, it is growing, people have jobs and they are confident to be spending their hard earned cash as it has been a lovely summer. As I have repeatedly said however we cannot (unfortunately) rely on the weather to support the economy, still with the Olympic glory still fresh in everyone’s minds let us keep positive.
On the subject of Referendums we might yet have another one! Owen Smith the prospective Labour candidate has stated he will be looking to call another Referendum before invoking Article 50, putting the new deal to the test of a public vote. Owen Smith the potential future Labour leader has made this call as part of his campaign to be the new Labour leader. So far this is not wholly likely but the prospect remains.
If you have a transfer involving the pound the uncertainty is set to continue for many months and maybe years, making some plans in such uncertain times seems to me a very sensible option. To discuss further your options and the market please contact me Jonathan Watson on the form below or email me directly on email@example.com
This week HSBC Holdings Plc and UBS Group AG have indicated the future is not bright for the UK due to the ‘Brexit’ and they both believe GBPEUR exchange rates will reach parity at some stage next year. For people buying euros this should ring alarm bells where as euros sellers should feel their are extra pounds to be made.
Personally I disagree with the forecasts. Italy and Greece (two countries within the European union) have problems of their own. Banks within both countries are struggling with debt and they have both eluded to breaking EU laws to stay afloat. I believe rates will fluctuate in the mid teens and over time will drop to 1.10, however I just feel the UK economy is in a better position than the Eurozone and that’s why we will not see parity.
Tomorrow morning the UK release their latest Mortgage approval numbers. A drop is expected which isn’t a surprise. The public at the moment are acting cautiously due to what they read in the press about the ‘Brexit’. Expect sterling weakness tomorrow morning.
If I have not covered the currency pair you are trading feel free to email me the currency pair you are trading (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair firstname.lastname@example.org.
My area of expertise is property purchases and sales. Therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale abroad, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and to get an understanding of how we can save you as much money as possible.
** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **
Is there any chance of a Sterling rally in the near future? – Pound Forecast (Daniel Charles Johnson)
Many of my clients are hanging on to sell there Sterling at present. Having watched GBP/EUR fall from 1.40 at the beginning of the year to the now painful lows of the 1.15-1.16s. It is extremely hard to predict with high street banks throwing out contradictory forecasts. Lloyds predicting a Sterling rally and HSBC predicting parity on GBP/EUR. Personally I feel as UK data starts to filter through for July we will see further Sterling weakness. UK retail figures went against the grain and came in better than expected. we did see a small rally for GBP but it was not sustained. I feel the positive data cab attributed to an increase in tourism due to the weak pound and the rarity that is good British weather.
It is important to note that Ian McCafferty a member of the monetary policy committee has indicated that if UK data continues to come in below expectations than further monetary easing will be initiated. If I was looking to sell Sterling short-medium term I would be taking advantage of current levels.
If you have a currency requirement it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such a volatile times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. You would be looking at around a 4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at email@example.com. Thank you for reading my blog. The quickest method to get in touch is by filling in the form below and we will be in touch ASAP.
Pound rises as expected to begin the week – will buying Euro and Dollar rates continue to improve? (Joshua Privett)
As my article on Sunday mentioned, the Pound was expected to perform well this morning and did not disappoint, with gains seen against all major currencies – in particular for buying Euros and Dollars.
Speculators on Friday afternoon have been pulling the floor from under the Pound as they scramble for a stable currency to store their profits in heading into the weekend. Of course, the Pound has bot been high on their list of stable currencies and as a consequence the severe fall on demand for Sterling sees its value plummet.
However, similarly like clockwork we’re seeing GBP/EUR and GBP/USD levels rise as markets re-open on the following Monday as the vast majority scramble to buy Pounds due to their sudden cheapness. In this period of the week rates have rarely been so predictable.
Moving forward however my article did note some potential red flag events – particularly for Euro buyers.
Firstly, news concerning business confidence figures in the Eurozone are to be released tomorrow morning. As the Eurozone has essentially vacuumed up most of the foreign investment the UK has lost in the run up to Brexit and following the Leave result in the vote, the figures are expected to be very positive for the third consecutive month. It’s hardly surprising given that credit is so cheap and their foreign investment is up 300% on the same time last year.
With a fresh bout of Euro strength expected to come tomorrow at 10am, Euro buyers may be wise to seize some of the gains made today first thing in the morning to avoid what could be a difficult week for the Pound – especially given that underwhelming UK growth figures are expected to be released this Friday.
USD buyers however may be presented with some opportunities in the short-term, as tomorrow afternoon US housing market figures are forecasted to show a contraction – a likely result of their recent rise in interest rates. Expect a cheapening of the Dollar tomorrow afternoon. But again with UK growth figures on Friday we may simply be subjected to a small window of opportunity.
With this in mind I recommend that anyone with an upcoming Euro or Dollar purchase should contact me on firstname.lastname@example.org or by filling out the form below to discuss your currency requirement and develop a plan of action to truly maximise your return.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and I endeavor to produce a proactive service for my customers to make sure they are kept informed and up-to-date with market movements and expectations, rather than lagging behind.
As our regular readers will now full well, rates of exchange on any particular day can be fixed to allow purchasers to pre-book their currency for a later date, allowing any upcoming pitfalls to be avoided.
The UK is basking in Olympic glory at present and shrugging off those Brexit blues. For now consumers are spending and the economy has a healthy unemployment picture. This good news is very much welcome and reminds us all of the power of hard work, determination and training. The Olympics will have helped raised the UK’s profile internationally and could help boost tourism particularly with the pound at such low levels. Measuring the true impact of all of this in an economic sense is actually very difficult and in my opinion it would be misplaced to be overly complacent about the future direction for the pound.
An important point to make is that whilst the weak pound is good for exports it is not overall a benefit for the UK since the UK as a net importer buys more from overseas than it sells. That means because we spend more overseas when the currency is weak it is overall a bad thing. That is not to say a weak pound doesn’t present opportunities, many businesses selling overseas will be enjoying the weaker pound and there have been some headline grabbing stories of UK companies being purchased at a discount because of the weak pound.
The key news for me is the business surveys since the Brexit vote, these are the key indicators because ultimately it is business that drives the economy forward. Business is the key barometer of what will happen next. Consumers will not keep spending when the weather turns and they are worried about their job, it will be business’ reaction to the the economy which will shape what happens next. With hiring down and confidence lower I can see the pound coming under further pressure in the coming weeks and month, any clients buying a foreign currency with the pound should not be overly complacent.
If you are buying or selling the pound exchange rates remain volatile and there are various upcoming events to help determine the next leg of direction on the pound. Brexit news is unlikely to develop quickly, indeed we are probably going to need to wait until 2017 to learn just what is happening next. In this time as confidence is sapped, so too sterling should fall.
If you have a transfer to consider making some firm plans in advance is sensible. If you are considering buying or selling the pound then understanding all of your options is key to mitigating the uncertainty. To learn more please fill in the form below or if you prefer a direct contact with me please email email@example.com
Pound takes late tumble on Friday – how will buying Euro and Dollar rates fare next week? (Joshua Privett)
Like clockwork, particularly since the middle of July, the Pound has taken a heavy hit as we enter the weekend, leaving Euro and Dollar buyers concerned about how markets may open to begin the following week.
Speculators are the principle cause. Traders at high street institutions, who move sums large enough to change the interbank buying level, have to choose a stable currency to store their profits in over the weekend.
What has changed in the post-Brexit vote landscape is that the Pound is very low on the list of currencies which traders are comfortable enough to predominantely hold their capital in. When demand for Sterling drops dramatically during this period so does its buying power, creating greater expense for those with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement.
However, the comforting news for anyone considering buying a foreign currency is that a small recovery is normally seen by the opening of European markets on Monday morning when normal activity resumes.
My previous article for this website on Friday mentionned that UK inflation data will be released on Tuesday, however, these report hearing have now been delayed. Now much of buying Euro and Dollar rates will be governed by events in Europe and the US.
Eurozone data on Tuesday showing business confidence in the manufacturing and service sectors should be seen as a red flag for anyone with a Euro requirement. The Eurozone seems to have attracted much of the investment the UK has lost during this 2016 of uncertainty, which has increased over 320% compared to this time last year. Euro strength is quite obviously expected that day.
The same day we have US housing market figures to released to markets, focused on new home sales, which are expected to show a contraction from the previous month. This will come out at 3pm UK time so Dollar buyers with a short-term requirement should keep this firmly in their dairy.
Now that we are in the final two weeks of the month where economic data is relatively scarce, much of the market will be government not by national performance, but by the inclinations of high street speculators.
As such the next two weeks will see a premium being put on being able to move relatively quickly, as opportunities may only be around for an hour or so at a time, and are difficult to judge when they may emerge.
The onset of September will bring fresh data for August’s performance, and the UK is expected to have a similarly tough time of it as it did at the beginning of this month.
With this in mind I recommend that anyone with an upcoming Euro or Dollar purchase should contact me over the weekend whilst markets are closed on firstname.lastname@example.org or by filling out the form below to discuss your currency requirement and develop a plan of action to truly maximise your return.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and I offer a proactive service to my customers to make sure they are informed with the most up to date information and expectations in order to make an informed decision.
If you are concerned that the beginning of September may bring similar tumbles on Euro or Dollar buying rates as they did in August, you can also fix the rate as it is on the day to avoid any drops before a future, planned transfer.
This week UK economic data has stopped the pound falling against most of the major currencies. Early in the week UK inflation showed an improvement and I put this down to oil prices rising which means the price at the petrol pump has gone up therefore the public are spending more. Later in the week unemployment and retail sales numbers also exceeded expectation which is a surprise as many economists believed the ‘Brexit’ would have weighed down on the figures.
Late Friday afternoon the pound took a nose dive and this has been a common occurrence since the referendum. Speculators do not want to leave their assets in the pound over the weekend due to unexpected events that could occur over the weekend when they are not in the office and markets continue to stay active.
It seems the pound is in a similar position to where it started at the beginning of the week and many client lats Friday asked has the pound levelled out. Personally I still believe there is further falls to come therefore if you are buying foreign currency trading sooner rather than later may be wise.
Looking ahead the major data release this week is UK inflation hearings Tuesday morning. At the hearings Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney, will give his inflation predictions. Now the BoE have cut interest rates and are injecting a substantial amount of quantitative easing into the economy you would expect inflation to rise. Theres an argument to suggest Mr Carney will state he believes inflation will rise but at the same time I can’t see him taken a bullish tone when many believe the UK are close to a recession.
It’s important when purchasing currency to analyse both currencies.Feel free to email me the currency pair you are trading (GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair email@example.com.
My area of expertise is property purchases and sales. Therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and how we can save you as much money as possible.
** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you