Sterling has had a mixed week on the markets so far following a run of inconsistent economic data releases. Despite GBP/EUR spiking back to 1.27 on the exchange, I do not anticipate any major spikes for GBP against either the EUR or USD from the current position. With UK inflation now at a five year low, coupled with our growth forecast being cut for 2015 means the Pound is likely to struggle, especially in the short-term.
Eurozone Consumer Confidence figures came out as expected today and were up on last month’s figure and this is also likely to help the EUR to find support around 1.27 and I still feel it is far more likely that we will see GBP/EUR move back towards 1.25 than spike up to 1.30 and considering we are still trading very close to a two year high on the pair, I would be tempted to consider my position around the current levels if you do have an upcoming EUR purchase.
GBP/USD is currently floating around 1.60, with the USD spiking yesterday following the US FED’s decision to end their current Quantitative Easing programme. This is an indication that the US economic recovery is now moving ahead of the UK’s and I would be very surprised if GBP/USD moves back through 1.60 for any sustained period in the lead up to Christmas.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on firstname.lastname@example.org
The pound has been under pains from interest rise expectations being thrown back in to Q3 2015. Worse Eurozone news has also contributed to sterling weakness as the United Kingdom is reliant on Eurozone business buying UK goods and services. Tomorrow and Friday are perhaps more important for GBPEUR with the release of a series of Eurozone releases including Consumer Confidence (Thu) and Inflation and Unemployment data (both Fri).
The range of data released from the Eurozone make predicting movements very difficult and increases the volatility we can expect on GBPEUR. It may be prudent to make us aware today if you are buying or selling this pair this week. Tomorrow we also have Spanish GDP (Gross Domestic Product) at 8.00 am in the morning, then at 08.55 am German Unemployment. If you wish for some assistance in when to make the transaction please contact me directly on email@example.com
Do beware of tonight’s Fed decision as this is likely to impact markets as well…
With data slightly thin on the ground so far this week tomorrow all eyes will be on what happens at the Fed’s meeting due to be held tomorrow night. Expectations are that we’ll see an end to their QE and likely a bout of Dollar strength which often results in Euro weakness. This could lead to some excellent buying opportunities if you need to buy Euros with Sterling.
On Thursday morning Germany publishes its own set of unemployment data and as the Eurozone’s largest economy any negative results could also see Euro weakness. October’s consumer confidence data is also due out and I think the release can only be negative for the single currency.
Finally, on Friday we see the release of the Consumer Price Index which measures inflation on the continent and any falls could put pressure on the ECB next week to look at further monetary intervention. Also, the Eurozone unemployment rate is published with expectations for 11.5%.
Personally, I think the majority of the Euro news will be negative creating some excellent rates to buy Euros with Sterling.
If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org
UKIP continue to make gains in polls and are certainly likely to be a thorn in the side of the more established parties, indeed they already have been. But is this more a reflection of the tough times ahead for the UK (and the pound) or a flash in the pan protest vote?
UKIP have the power to severely undermine confidence in sterling. there is tremendous uncertainty posed by a party with no solid economic idea from what I have seen. Aside from promising to withdraw from Europe and playing on peoples immigration fears it is difficult to find concrete policy. Let it be known that any withdrawal from Europe would have wide reaching consequences for the UK economy and hence the pound. Whilst it might be welcomed we examine the relationship with Europe the economic benefits of being part of Europe should not be underestimated.
We shall learn much more about the true effects of UKIP on the pound in the next few months as we have bi-election and then the General Election in May 2015. The effect on sterling from increased political uncertainty will undoubtedly be negative and anyone hoping to see sterling keep climbing in 2014 and beyond might be disappointed.
To keep up to date with the pound and how important events affect your exchange please contact me Jonathan on email@example.com
I expect to see Sterling Euro exchange rates break 1.27 during early Monday morning following the release of the European stress tests which showed a total of 24 banks failing the test. They now have just 9 months to sort things out before they will be shut down.
The good news for the UK economy is that none of the UK’s banks were involved. The four largest retail banks in the UK underwent the test but all came out with no problems.
This is likely to strengthen the Pound during early morning’s trading as the markets digest the problems on the continent. One of the worst banks was Monte dei Paschi which is Italy’s oldest bank. I think we could potentially even see a run on some of the banks involved which could lead to Euro weakness as confidence starts to wane in the Eurozone.
Later this week on Thursday German unemployment data is due out and the expectations are for 6.7% so anything worse could again see Euro weakness.
Finally, this week Eurozone CPI data comes out on Friday. With the ECB already having cut interest rates in September to just 0.05% I think the news could put more pressure on the ECB to act again in November.
If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org
GBP has dipped during Thursday morning’s trading following the release of the latest UK Retail Sales figures. With figures dropping in September by 0.3%, it is another indication that all is not well with the UK economy and it now seems as if our recovery is stagnating. With inflation falling to a five year low recently and on-going concerns over the knock effect the Eurozone slowdown is having on the UK economy, we may find that GBP struggles to make any further sustained inroads against the EUR.
Tomorrow is likely to be a key date for investors, as we have the latest set of UK Gross Domestic Product figures. A country’s GDP figure gives investors a key insight into the overall performance of that particular economy and with UK growth expected to fall in Q3 from 0.9% to 0.7%, we may find that the Pound continues to come under pressure as we head into the weekend.
GBP/USD rates dipped again during yesterday’s trading with a sustained move under 1.60 now looking likely in the short-term. The USD was boosted by better than expected US inflation data released yesterday and with question marks now hanging over the UK economic recovery, I do feel as if the USD is likely to gain further market support. Cable exchange rates have traded above 1.60 for so long that a correction is well overdue in my opinion and I wouldn’t be surprised to the USD put pressure back on 1.55 by Christmas.
Following the devastating events in Canada over the past days, which have reminded the world of the dangers we still face by terrorism, the focus has shifted away from their economy. RBC Governor Poloz cancelled a speech last night, as the country came to grips with the tragedy.
Looking at any knock on effects for their currency and GBP/CAD rates dipped during yesterday’s trading, despite the fact the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) interest decision came out as expected, with the central bank keeping their base interest rate on hold at 1%. Whilst this was widely anticipated their subsequent monetary policy statement indicated the Canadian economy was seeing ‘renewed vigour’ in consumer spending and the real estate market since July.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with you current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on email@example.com
Retail sales tomorrow morning and growth figures on Friday to be key for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)
Tomorrow morning we see the release of Retail Sales figures for the U.K followed by GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures on Friday morning.
Retail Sales are expected to have dropped off a little and growth figures are due to show economic growth for the third quarter of 2014 to be at 0.7%.
Sterling has had a fairly flat week as far as currency movements go so these next few days may give us a grandstand finish.
If you are looking to exchange foreign currency in the next few days or indeed weeks then feel free to get in touch with me directly, even if you want a quick comparison to make sure you are getting the most for your money.
You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on firstname.lastname@example.org with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.
Early indications suggest yes! The pound has clearly been the favourite currency of 2014 as the UK leaves its counterparts behind with solid economic growth and economic policies all pointing towards raising interest rates. For me this trend is not finished and whilst the pound has clearly come slightly unstuck this October (the month economic realities often hit home, remember the Wall St crash?) longer term sterling really should remain the investors choice.
Risks remain from the Eurozone slowdown (40% of the UK’s overseas trade is with the Eurozone) and a general deterioration in the global economic outlook but on balance the UK is benefiting from improved domestic demand and whilst it may be that sterling does dip a little more as interest rate expectations are pushed back, I still believe the UK will raise interest rates ahead of the United States. I therefore view any dip in sterling as a buying opportunity well worth capitalising on.
Tomorrow’s Retail figures will be a big indicator as to whether or not the this domestic demand is sustainable and Friday’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will again be very indicative of just exactly how the UK is faring, I would personally expect sterling to fall tomorrow but rise Friday. If you are considering an upcoming exchange why not speak with me to learn a little more about the forecast?
What exactly should I do? I cannot unfortunately tell you exactly what to do or when to buy the currency, no one can! I can however keep an eye on the rates for you and highlight improvements and upcoming events which will affect the exchange. The uncertainty of the foreign exchange market means making firm decisions is impossible and it is only by speaking with a true specialist you can fully understand what may happen down the line.
For more information please contact me Jonathan Watson on email@example.com