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Where Next for GBP/EUR Exchange Rates (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have floated between 1.21-1.22 on the exchange for the majority of the trading week, as Sterling continues to hold its position against the single currency. Sterling had put pressure on the 1.22 level and it seemed as if the momentum generated over recent weeks may carry it through. However, the EUR has found support around that level, with GBP/EUR rates moving back towards 1.2150. With little data out this week the markets have remained fairly flat, although Wednesday’s Bank of England (BoE) minutes did seem to reinforce the belief that the UK economy is continuing on its road to economic recovery.

Certainly when you look at the UK and Eurozone economies it seems as if the UK’s recovery is ahead of its Euro counterpart, certainly in terms of its growth prospects for the rest of 2014. The Eurozone is also fighting against the feel very real chance of deflation across the region, which would add a huge burden to an already fragile economic recovery. Whilst market conditions change extremely quickly it may be prudent to consider your position if you need to sell EUR over the coming weeks, as the negative feeling around France’s debt and concern by ECB president Mario Draghi that the EUR has gained too much value, is negatively affecting the regions recovery and the markets perception of it.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our exchange rates against your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Great Expectations… GBP Weakness…

The pound has dipped this morning despite a raft of good economic data showing improvements in government borrowing and falling budget deficit. There had been some high expectations of seeing the pound move higher due to a more hawkish outlook by the Bank of England but this failed to materialise. As one of my clients said to me ‘you can’t even trust the Bank of England’ nowadays…

This was in reference to their commitment to consider raising interest rates if the Unemployment rate dipped below 7%. This particular caveat was of course met recently causing the pound to spike but for now the BoE will not be raising interest rates, it would simply cause more problems.

If you are expecting the pound to just keep rising you could therefore be very disappointed as we need to see some really good data to warrant such a spike. I find the best way to maximise your return on your currency exchange is to set realistic targets and limits. If you would like some assistance in the execution and planning of your transfers please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk, even if your transfer is just a once off, we can help get you the most for your money.

Thank you,

Jonathan

 

 

Sterling Poised On The Bank Of England Minutes

Sterling is still looking fairly good after the Easter break, with particular pressure growing versus the Euro.  With recent good news in the UK jobs market and retail sector, there is a growing sense of optimism surrounding the pound.  Tomorrow sees the latest Bank of England Minutes published, and although it seems unlikely any of the members will have voted for a rate hike, it seems more a question of when, not if, one of them will break ranks and decide UK interest rates need to go up.  I suspect sterling may still make headway against a few currencies as there will be little data out to dent the pound, with retail figures at the end of the week once again set to show a positive trend.

We have Eurozone PMI data out tomorrow morning and again there is the possibility that weak figures could see the Euro slip further so anyone holding Euro may want to sell sooner rather than later.  Australian inflation data is due out in a few hours and the pound has been hovering near 1.80 for a few days now.  Weak figures could see sterling break this barrier, but a strong showing may keep sterling trapped under the 1.80 barrier for a while longer.

If you need to make a currency transfer and would like some more ideas about the services we offer please feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

Quiet start to the week for the pound following the Easter break as focus will look to the Bank of England minutes tomorrow (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling exchange rates have consolidated this morning pushing on close to 1.22 against the Euro and reaching 1.6825 against the US dollar. Looking at data to start the working week look out for the following:

- Euro Zone consumer confidence figures today at 15:00 – expected to show a slight improvement

- Speech from former FED Chairman Ben Bernanke at 16:45 this afternoon

- RBA inflation figures overnight at 02:30 am

- Tomorrow 09:30 Bank of England minutes

- Tomorrow 21:00 RBNZ interest rate decision

- Thursday US Initial Jobless claims 13:30

- Friday Retails Sales figures at 09:30

As you can see it is a relatively busy end to the week with focus for anyone with an interest in the pound being the Bank of England minutes tomorrow morning and Friday’s retail sales figures. Tomorrows minutes will give insight as to how the nine members from the MPC voted in relation to interest rates and will give clues as to future monetary policy.

Should you have an upcoming bank to bank money exchange to arrange and you would like more information regarding the full currency service we provide please contact the office on +44 (0)1494 725353 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Consolidates Against Most Majors

After initial wobbles early this morning, sterling has consolidated its gains before the Easter break.  Most UK news of late including retail figures and unemployment, has all been exceptionally good, allowing the pound to make headway against most of the majors.  However the gains are being limited by the fact the Bank of England is still highly unlikely to adjust interest rates before the second quarter of 2015.

The UK markets will be closed tomorrow and on Monday, however many other countries will be open for business as usual so we could still see some movement although I suspect sterling will be reasonably well supported because of the recent jobs news.  We have Australian next Tuesday evening so I am hoping we can break back into the 1.80 barrier for GBP AUD, and whilst European inflation figures recently were just about passable, I am hopeful that next week’s Markit PMI could trigger further weakness for the single currency.

If you are likely to need a currency transfer in the near future and would like to discuss how best to go about it then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work.

Sterling having a better run as we head to the long Easter break (Mike Vaughan)

As we head to the long Easter weekend the pound has begun to show some signs of positivity, notably against the Euro and US dollar with rates at a near four year high against the greenback. Prior to this the pound had seen some volatile times against a host of currencies and in particular the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.

In fact earlier this week the pound was trading at its lowest level against the Australian Dollar since November last year having shifted over 7% from the highs of January. This makes a difference of 24k AUD in a little over three months on a £200k money exchange. Looking at other currencies and the market is also proving very volatile against the NZD having shifted over 5% since February and the ZAR with the pound being some 6% down on this year’s high of 18.81.

Since these lows the pound has shifted back towards 1.80 against the AUD following strong UK unemployment figures yesterday which are now below the 7% level sitting at 6.9% and the sentiment coming from the RBA minutes that maybe they are not as comfortable as originally suggested with the current value of the Australian Dollar. For me this pair is now likely to settle around the 1.80 range.

To finish off the working week the UK has little in the way of data releases with initial jobless claims from the US at 13:30 the major data of note. Should you need to get anything locked in before the Easter weekend then there is still time. Registration is free and carries no obligation and can be done on-line all in a matter of minutes. Contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling pushes up against Euro & US Dollar after UK Unemployment Falls (Tom Holian)

Sterling has pushed up today against the Euro creating the best rate to buy Euros for a few weeks. This is following on from some very positive next from the UK unemployment sector which saw a fall to 6.9% which is the best in years and below the original figure set out by the Bank of England as an indicator of when to increase interest rates. However, as unemployment has dropped over the last few months Bank of England Governor Mark Carney stated that unemployment will not be the prime reason to change interest rates.

However, any signs that the UK economy is on the rise is good for Pound as a whole and this is the reason why Sterling has shot up against the US Dollar testing 4 year highs and also why Sterling Euro exchange rates have been on the up today.

The unemployment figures were the best they’ve been for five years with 2.2 million people currently out of work. Average earnings have also picked up during the last three months and have outstripped inflation for the first time since 2010. Therefore, this is likely to promote consumer confidence which ultimately means more spending which in turn will drive UK economic growth.

With the Easter bank holiday coming up this weekend if you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

Sterling receives a boost following better than expected unemployment figures (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has had a really good morning against all major currencies this morning following much better than expected unemployment figures for the U.K and also news that after six long years wage growth has now overtaken inflation.

Both of these factors have led to a spike in the market for Sterling which is great news for anyone looking to buy foreign currency in the near future.

If you are in the process of buying a property overseas then your dream home abroad has indeed just become a little cheaper for you!

We have some European inflation data out shortly and then this afternoon we have the Canadian interest rate decision and statement so keep a keen eye on exchange rates between 3-4pm this afternoon.

Personally I think the Pound has the potential now to kick on once again as long as we see this positive trend continue in terms of economic data.

If you are looking to buy or sell foreign currency in the near future then it is well worth getting in touch with me directly. Not only can I help you achieve better exchange rates than your bank or current broker but I can also help you with the timing of your transaction with years of knowledge of the currency markets. Feel free to email  me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what your requirements are and a contact number and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.

Where Next for Sterling Exchange Rates

It’s been a quiet day for the Pound on the currency markets, with little movement against both the EUR and USD. GBP/EUR rates continue to float around 1.21 on the exchange and the markets seem to be waiting for guidance before making their next decisive move. With concerns over France’s economic health and the very real threat of deflation hanging over the region, you can make a very good case that Sterling is more likely to find further market support from its current position than the EUR.

However, there is a is a case to be argued that the EUR, when considering its recent history against GBP, has far more scope for improvement than the Pound. If the negative issues raised earlier in this post can be resolved then you do feel the EUR could go on a run and break back through 1.20 for a sustained period.

Personally I feel GBP will continue to be well supported in the market, in line with the improvements we are seeing in the UK economy. Any move towards 1.25 against the EUR is likely to find market resistance but it will be difficult for the EUR to make a decisive move under 1.20, based on the current market conditions.

We have seen a positive spike during Tuesdays trading against both the AUD and NZD, following loses against both currencies last week. With China’s economy starting to show signs of improvement and their demand for Australia’s raw materials once again starting to increase, we may find the AUD can gather market support over the coming weeks and help to control Sterling’s recent gains.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

GBP/EUR back over 1.21. Attractive buying Euro rates (Ben Amrany)

Key UK inflation figures were released this morning and has given the pound a tidy boost after weakening against many of the majors overnight. UK BRC retail sales monitor came in much lower than expected with a reading of -1.7%  against the consensus of -1.0% This did hurt the pound in early morning trading with GBP/EUR falling to 1.2067. Inflation figures measuring 1.6% assisted a rebound. Now although CPI is below the Government’s 2% target many analysts were predicting a steeper fall which would have raised questions whether the UK economy could cope with an interest rate hike next year.

The retail figures go to show that competition on the high street is fierce and is assisting this drop in Inflation. Now, should inflation remain low and stay below wage rises then this will give the BoE some relief that an interest rate hike next year could be coped with by the economy. This is what has given the pound a boost. If wages rise at a lower rate than  the inflation figure then the public would have less to spend and could cause a hole within the economy and the chances of a rate hike would be less likely hence harming the pound.

Looking forward tomorrow at 9.30 the key employment numbers for the UK will be very heavily scrutinized as the unemployment number is being directly linked to when an interest rate hike may occur due to the Mark Carney’s (Governor of the Bank of England) previous comments that interest rates may rise when unemployment falls below 7%.  The number is expected to fall from 7.2% to 7.1% Although this does not sound like a big movement the mere fact that we may get closer to 7% could give the pound a boost tomorrow morning against a host of the majors.  

The pound in general has been very volatile over the course of this year with significant losses against the southern hemisphere currencies in the last month but with gains against many of the majors like the USD & EUR. Depending on the currency you are buying or selling we may recommend different strategies to help you maximise your exchange. To find out my thoughts on the best solution for your currency exchange you may email me directly at bma@currencies.co.uk

If you feel that you would like assistance with an up and coming currency transfer you have to make we will strive to help you beat the rate of exchange your bank will offer you. Our savings can be up to 4% and I will also offer a very personal service to help you judge when you should buy the currency you require. if I know what your requirement is I can recommend the best options available to you.

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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