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Will the Fed hike interest rates in June and the impact on GBPUSD rates (Tom Holian)

The question of whether or not the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates in June has been asked many times recently but for me I think I could prove to be too early.

Domestically the US economy is looking good with positive jobs figures, solid inflation as well as growth so they are clearly ready to raise interest rates.

However, with the global economy showing signs of slowdown, the UK potentially leaving the European Union albeit unlikely this is causing the Fed to pause on policy and use the wait and see approach.

This has caused the Dollar to weaken marginally against Sterling with rates to buy US Dollars tipping past 1.47 during trading last week and creating some good buying opportunities for those holding Sterling.

We have seen GBPUSD rates gain for two consecutive weeks but over the next few days I think we’ll struggle to see further gains.

On Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims are due to be published and with the economy on solid ground I think we could see the Dollar fight back against Sterling towards the end of the week.

The UK is just less than 4 weeks to go before the EU referendum takes place and with such an uncertain period ahead many of my clients having been securing their currency on forward contracts.

This allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit which is extremely useful if you’re on a tight budget and don’t want to see the market move against you.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a fee quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Buying Euro rates the focus for the Pound next week (Joshua Privett)

After a dip on Thursday the Pound limped towards the closing bell on Friday following poor growth figures for the UK economy, which saw buying Euro rates in particular to suffer the most.

The Bank holiday also presents a complicated entry into next week, with the UK and US (who will be enjoying Memorial Day) unable to trade whilst the Eurozone and the rest of the world have free reign.

The complication comes from the large volumes of data to be released from the Eurozone on Monday. This is a combination of growth, consumer confidence, and inflation figures from the EU as a whole as well as its member states.

Frankly, with such a wide look at the EU economy, and with the main players in the financial markets taken off the table, it is very difficult to second-guess the markets on Monday.

However, Tuesday may present some early opportunities to Euro buyers as we edge closer to June. Wherever we may find ourselves on Tuesday morning, the culmination of all the aforementionned Eurozone data, inflation figures for the whole area will be released.

The Eurozone cut their base interest rate to 0% this year off the back of poor inflation figures, which they have continued to struggle with. A repeat performance could see further opportunities for Euro buyers begin to emerge.

However, the window is a;ready presenting itself as a small one. Over the weekend the release of initial manufacturing figures for the UK economy during May has been brought forward to Wednesday from the following Monday.

Last month the Pound suffered heavily from poor manufacturing and industrial production figures – a result of poor weather and the Tata Steel crisis. The fact that this month all the available data has been tallied ahead of time suggests that there hasn’t been much production to take note of…again creating a concerning picture for the potential for the Pound against all currencies, not just for buying Euro rates, on Wednesday.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a buying Euro requirement in particular to contact me over the bank holiday weekend before Tuesday on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss your options and find the plan of action which suits your risk appetite and one aimed to maximise your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered by my competitors, and these current buying levels can be fixed as they at any point on a particular day for a predetermined period set by you. You can essentially book ahead of time to buy your currency at a set rate.

With the Referendum coming up a brief conversation could save you thousands given the lerge swings in buying rates expected on the market place.

How the Brexit Vote may affect Sterling exchange rates (Tom Holian)

For the last few weeks I am being asked a number of times a day the same question how will Sterling react to the EU referendum vote?

It is a difficult question to answer as first of all nobody knows which way the vote will turn out.

According to some recent polls published by YouGov they have the Remain camp in the lead and with the backing of the UK government, Bank of England, the International Monetary Fund as well as the European Union itself it looks more than likely that we will see the Remain vote win through.

However, with some people expecting Sterling strength if we vote to remain as it will provide certainty for the British economy we could actually see the Euro strengthen vs Sterling.

My reasoning is that currently the EU has 28 countries and if the UK votes to stay then its future will be more secure and we could see more countries added in the next few years.

Therefore, the vote will also provide certainty for the single currency and this could see the Euro improve vs Sterling.

The answer to what will happen to Sterling exchange rates is not clear and we will have to wait to see what happens in just less than 4 weeks time.

What is clear however is that GBPEUR rates are likely to see big swings over the next month and as the polls increase and the media hypes up the uncertainty surrounding the vote this could cause huge volatility.

Many of my clients have been opting for forward contracts which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date and this can prove extremely useful if you want to ensure rates don’t move against you during this time. This can be suitable if you’re buying a property in Europe.

If you have a currency transfer and want to save money on exchange rate compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling Steadies at Near 4 Month High (James Lovick)

After an excellent rally for the last week the pound is finally hitting resistance at these higher levels. GBP EUR peaked just above 1.32 and is now sitting 1 cent lower whilst GBP USD is struggling to break 1.47. We should be coming to the end of the Remain campaign’s announcements as rules have now kicked in which prevent the government from issuing any further big publications to support their cause. The markets have now started to price in a greater chance that Britain will remain in the EU as a result of recent polls and bizarrely; looking at the odds at the bookmakers – The bookies don’t always get it right though!

As these new developments have now been priced in to the market then it means that any new developments from the Leave campaign are yet to be felt in the price of the pound. As such there is considerable more risk that the pound will see falls in the coming weeks in the run up to 23rd June. For anyone selling Euros or any other currency then my view is that there should realistically be some better opportunities approaching. The question is whether clients in this situation will be able to hold their nerve with almost another full month to go in what I feel could be one of the most volatile periods the pound will ever see.

When the Swiss National Bank removed it’s Swiss Franc peg it held with the Euro at the beginning of last year it created market movements by as much as 40% in a single day! Considering the scale of what this referendum actually means in Britain and Europe then exchange rates are open to extreme volatility. Anyone with a currency requirement would be wise to look at protecting themselves against the uncertainty by securing funds or part of funds well in advance of the referendum date.

Data after the Bank Holiday weekend includes Purchasing Managers Index data for the construction, manufacturing and services sectors as well as house price numbers. Sterling exchange rates are however more likely to be driven by referendum politics. European data is much more plentiful with inflation numbers and the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday which is likely to cause a stir.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency requirement either buying or selling and would like to be kept up to date with key market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively you can email me directly at jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling at the Mercy of EU Referendum Polls (Daniel Johnson)

Yesterday The pound gained strength against the majority of major currencies. This was due to impressive retail sales data, positive inflation figures and the remain camp gaining significant momentum in the polls for the EU referendum. GBP/EUR hit a twelve week high at 1.32. GBP/USD 1.47 and GBP/AUD 2.05.

A Daily Telegraph poll show that 55% of the UK population wish to stay, 42% wish to leave with the remainder undecided. What was surprising however was that the remain camp had support from the majority of over 65s. Their findings also revealed that those in the undecided camp were twice as likely to vote to remain in the EU than to leave.

The Institute of Fiscal studies also announced that if the UK were to leave the EU the UK would face an extra two years of austerity. GDP would decline and there would be additional borrowing costs which would result in losses of £20-40bn.

The polls will be a key factor as to Sterling market position up until the day of the vote 23rd June. It is important to note that Sterling crashed a few days before the Scottish referendum and the general election.

We have seen a slight decline today for Sterling against most currencies due to poor GDP figures which has been caused by businesses unwilling to trade due to the uncertainty created by a possible Brexit. GBP/CAD fell more significantly due to the increase in oil price.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and by doing so I can beat any competitors rate of exchange. I am willing to provide a free trading strategy to try and maximise your return. Fell free to drop me an e-mail at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Simply let me know the currency you are trading, time scale and a ball park figure as to the size of the trade. Thank you for reading my blog.

UK GDP Figures Halt the Pound’s Rise (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound’s recent rise came to an abrupt end this morning, following the release of the latest UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The official reading came out at 2%, which was under market expectation and the Pound immediately lost value as a result.

GBP/EUR dropped back to 1.3131 at today’s low and despite the recent improvement, I still feel the Pound remains in a fragile state. The markets seem to be moving off rumour as much as fact and with the upcoming referendum likely to cause further uncertainty, it is very difficult to predict exactly how things will unfold. Sterling did receive a boost earlier this week following the release of the latest EU poll, which indicated the Remain camp had a healthier lead than many thought.

I did anticipate a move up to the current levels ahead of next month’s referendum and despite the rise I still feel the polls we are seeing are likely to be fabricated. There will certainly be further developments on both sides before the final votes are cast on June 23rd and for this reason I wouldn’t be gambling on another major spike for GBP. It may be that following this morning’s poor data that Sterling has hit its glass ceiling.

We also need to consider the Bank of England’s (BoE) position, which has been to continually talk down facets of our economy, which has diluted investor confidence. They are keen to control Sterling’s value in the hope this will boost exports and ultimately narrow our ever growing trade deficit.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of my team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Buying Euros and Dollars near four month high (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR and GBP/USD have seen their second consecutive day of serious gains on the currency markets, putting smiles on the faces of Dollar and Euro buyers who were biting their nails looking at rates only a few weeks ago.

The change over the past week is that gains on the markets are sticking. Short-term bumps upward had characterised the market place given the jumpy nature of investors in the run-up to the Referendum vote.

But the two-week period of almost total stability (for example when GBP/EUR barely changed between the 1.26-7 at the beginning of the month) has given greater confidence to the market-place. Normal trading patterns have re-emerged with traders at high street banks (the ones who move the volumes large enough to effect currency exchange rates) which has given the Pound a bit more life.

To summarise, relative stability has allowed investors to stay on the ship longer rather than bailing too early as the exchange rates in April proved many were prone to do.

The polls for the Referendum are still largely uncertain. The remain camp has been boosted (another factor in the increased stability), but the variation in polling results is still staggering.

Even individual polling companies are seeing stark difference simply on how polls are conducted. Ipsos-Novi found that on their recent telephone poll the remain camp were 8 points yet on their online poll the leave camp were up by 4!

Their is still quite a lot to play for, and when factoring in voter turnout rates anyone buying foreign currency using Sterling still be wary of this unprecendented period of volatility we are about to enter into when June and the heavy campaign season comes around.

As early as tomorrow morning the economic arguement is also set to eat into the recent gains made for buying Euro and Dollar rates.

Growth figures for the UK economy are to be released before lunch, and after April’s showing where the EU actually outpaced the UK, it is likely that we’ll see a similar drop in the Pound’s value. With no other releases before the start of the next month on Wednesday, this should continue to be the dominant narrative for GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD exchange rates.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a foreign currency requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere and a brief conversation could save you thousands on your transfer.

If you detail your requirements, whether immediate or over the next few months, as well as the best number to reach you on, I can contact you before UK markets open in the morning to discuss your options in using a currency exchange brokerage and offer a live quote for any of the options which peak your interest, and comply with your risk appetite.

01494 787 478 – Joshua Privett

Sterling continues to Rocket

Yesterday afternoon the GBP/EUR rate increased by another cent moving into the 1.31’s for the first time since the start of February. The big question for Euro buyers is if this improvement will continue or will there be a drop in the rate before the referendum?

The bookies and currency markets seem convinced that the Remain campaign has got a significant lead as we enter within a month of the vote.

I am of the opinion that the rate may well improve a little over the coming days, however if there is new information with regards to how the referendum vote may unfold the rate could start to fall again.

The big piece of recent news is that Greece has managed to agree terms to unlock a further €10.3bn in new loans. If there was not a breakthrough in these negotiations there could have been a repeat of last summer where Greece was a day away from being bankrupt. No doubt this outcome will settle the markets.

Today there is a business sentiment data release for Germany which is an early indicator for current conditions and expectations over the next 6 months. Germany is considered the engine room of Europe and having released static GDP figures yesterday I would not be surprised if the release today was potentially negative.

There has been a general expectation that the GBP/EUR rate was going to fall to the 1.20’s before the referendum but since the Remain has taken a lead that may no longer be the case. If the UK do remain there is a belief that the rate could jump above 1.35 almost instantly. If you are looking to sell Euro’s it may be worth considering cutting your losses as it looks ever more likely that Sterling could be very strong in 29 days time.

If you would like to discuss anything with regards to my forecast or any further information with regards to currency, please send me an email at brf@currencies.co.uk

3 month high on GBPEUR Exchange Rates -Best Rate to buy Euros since early February (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have now broken through last week’s high and are now trading at the best exchange rate to buy Euros with Sterling since early February.

Last Thursday’s opinion poll as well as another one released today has put the Remain camp in the lead against the Leave campaign which has caused huge Sterling strength vs the Euro and created some excellent buying opportunities recently.

UK borrowing has come out higher than expected and typically this would have a weakening effect on Sterling exchange rates against all major currencies but it appears as though market sentiment is favouring Sterling at the moment.

The polls appear to be getting stronger in favour of the UK staying in the European Union but as the vote is democratic it will still be the public who will decide the course of action and therefore I expect to see continued volatility and big swings on Sterling exchange rates in the weeks ahead leading up to June 23rd.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has warned previously that the risks of leaving the EU could ‘possibly include a technical recession.’

As such an influential figure his opinion is well respected and will give further support to the Remain camp and again another reason for Sterling’s strength vs the Euro following on from comments made earlier today.

On Thursday UK GDP figures are due out on Thursday and any difference compared to the expectation of 0.4% could cause more movement for Sterling vs Euro.

Many of my clients whether buying or selling Euros are organising forward contracts which allow you to fix an exchange rate for the future and effectively removes the risk of where exchange rates may be in the weeks or months ahead.

This is extremely useful if you’re in the process of buying or selling property abroad.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to take advantage of these recent spikes then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Pound Sterling 2 month forecast (Dayle Littlejohn)

In recent weeks the Pound has made back early losses from the volatility surrounding the EU referendum. The reason for the Pounds rally, recent polls are suggesting the remain camp are slightly ahead.

UK Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne were back in the press yesterday scaremongering the UK public trying to rally votes. They believe a ‘Brexit’ would lead to a recession and over 800,000 jobs would be lost.

Regardless of polls suggesting the UK will remain part of the EU, the volatility in the next 4 weeks I believe will weigh down on the Pound and therefore foreign currency will be more expensive to buy.

If the UK were to stay part of the EU I believe the Pound will make gains against all of the major currencies off the back of the news however if the UK were to leave I expect the Pound to plummet similar to when the UK entered their last recession in 2008.

If you are buying or selling the Pound this year June 23rd EU referendum decision is going to have a major impact on your trade and could COST or SAVE you thousands!

When buying or selling the Pound its important to analyse both currencies that you will be trading (GBPEUR, GBPUSD, GBPAUD). Feel free to email me with the currency pair you are looking to trade and the timescales you are working too and I will email you with my forecast drl@currencies.co.uk.

For people reading this website for the first time the currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than the high street banks and other brokerages. I specialise in property purchases and sales. Therefore if you are buying or selling a property this year and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

If you are already using a brokerage and have stumbled across this article because you are simply looking for information in regards to the currency market, I want to help you save as money compared to the brokerage you are already using. For a comparison email me with the exact figures and the currency pair and I will email you with our live buying price.

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