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Bank Of England Minutes Released This Morning – Expect Sterling Volatility (Colm Gilhooly)

The latest Bank of England Minutes are published this morning at 9.30 and could be hugely important to the short term future of sterling exchange rates.  The BofE held interest rates this month despite calls in some quarters for them to start hiking interest rates.  Indeed even some of the members have themselves mentioned that the case for an interest rate hike is more balanced than previously suggesting they must now at least be considering when to hike.

However last month was a unanimous 9-0 in favour of holding interest rates, and if this morning shows the same then sterling could struggle as it would suggest a possible interest rate rise is still a way off yet.  On the other hand if the Minutes show one or more members have voted to hike, then we could see sterling rally further as the prospect of higher UK interest draws closer.

The Euro has wobbled again yesterday on the back of increasing European debt to GDP ratios, and I expect the single currency to remain under pressure in the run up to the next ECB decision where we will find out what the ECB plan to do (if anything) to combat low inflation and growth.  EU unemployment figures come out of the 31st July (a week Thursday) so again if these are not very impressive we could see the Euro slip even deeper.

It has broken below 1.35 against the USD and with the Fed announcement and jobs figures next week I think the Dollar could rally further should they take even a slightly less dovish stance Stateside.  The Aussie Dollar was once again riding up versus the Euro yesterday due to the European debt fears, and Glenn Stevens not mentioning the strength of the currency in his speech the other day.  Overnight Aussie CPI data was reasonably good and has helped the currency strengthen further.

If you need to make a currency transfer and want to get a good exchange rate and some options about how best to approach it, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currenices.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work.

Sterling exchange rates may be in for a volatile few days to end off the week? (Daniel Wright)

Important Economic data still to come out this week

Following a very quiet start to the week for the Pound here are a few key pieces of economic data due out over the coming few days that may affect the value of Sterling against these major currencies.

The two key days for me may be the Bank of England meeting minutes tomorrow morning at 09:30am followed by BOE Governor Mark Carney speaking in the early afternoon and U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data due on Friday, also at 09:30am.

We are currently still very close to a two year high against the Euro and a nearly at a six year high against the Dollar so trading levels are still extremely attractive for anyone looking to buy either of these two currencies.

Last night we had Governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens speak and he has now once again spoken and confirmed that he is happy with the current monetary policy in Australia, seemingly changing his view that the AUD is too strong and giving the Australian Dollar some early morning strength.

Today – Reasonably quiet for economic data today with the main focus being on U.S inflation data which is due out at 13:30pm this afternoon. As with most U.S data this can have an effect on all major currencies as it does affect global attitude to risk.

Wednesday – Inflation data also starts the day off tomorrow with Australian having their turn this time. Australian inflation data is due out at 02:30am so could be an overnight market mover so if you have a requirement to buy or sell Australian Dollars in the near future it may be prudent to place a limit order or stop loss to either take advantage of a short spike or protect yourself from adverse market movement. Contact me for more details on how these options work.

Tomorrow morning does has the potential to be a big market mover although it has not been led to too much market volatility over the last few months. We have the Bank of England minutes out for the U.K which are from the last interest rate decision. The key will be if any members of the Bank of England have started voting in favour of an interest rate hike, for a long time now the vote has been all nine members of the monetary policy committee in favour of no change but with all the talk of interest rate changes coming closer will anyone have changed their mind?

In early afternoon Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney speaks at 12:24pm so be very aware that investors will be hanging off of his every word so Wednesday for me has real potential to be the most volatile of the week.

For those tracking the New Zealand Dollar we have the RBNZ Interest rate decision out at 22:00pm and a small hike in interest rates is expected, if this happens be cautious of a little NZD strength overnight, if they do not hike as expected then we could see the Pound gain a little back. Again a stop loss or limit order overnight may be a sensible approach.

Thursday  Thursday morning is fairly busy once again with a flurry of services and manufacturing data out for Europe throughout the morning from 8:00am until 9:00am followed by U.K Retail Sales data at 09:30am. Expectations are for a small rise in Retail Sales but as you are all aware these releases don’t always come out as expected.

Friday Once again 09:30am is the key for those following Sterling exchange rates as we have GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data out for the U.K at this time. GDP measures the amount the economy has grown or shrunk within a specific period of time. This can be one of the most important releases of the month an again expectations are for a minor increase year on year but no revision to quarter 2.

All in all a fairly busy few days, so if you have a currency transfer to carry out involving any major currency it is well worth making me aware of it or giving me a call so I can notify you of any large market movements or so that you can secure these fantastic exchange rates so that the market does not have a chance to drop back away again if data is not too great.

If you have a requirement in the future but you do not yet have the full availability of funds you can book out a forward contract. This is where you can book a rate out for up to a year in advance with just a small deposit, removing the risk of the currency market making your purchase any more expensive in the future.

This is ideal if you are in the process of buying a property overseas as you can know exactly how much the property is going to cost you today and eliminate the risk of the Pound dropping away again and missing out on this great opportunity.

I look forward to speaking with you if you have any questions or queries or you would like to book out a rate of exchange. You can email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to assist you.

 

 

Tomorrows Bank of England minutes and Mark Carney’s speech the next focus for the pound (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has had a positive day against the Euro but lost ground against the dollar pushing slightly closer to the 1.70 level. This all comes ahead of a very busy day tomorrow with the Bank of England minutes scheduled for release at 09:30 following by a speech from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney at 12:45.

In the minutes the split of the nine members within the monetary policy committee will be shown. My expectation is for a 9-0 split in favour of holding the UK’s base rate at 0.5% and as a result I would not expect any significant movement for sterling exchange rates following the release. However anyone buying Euros or US dollars may wish to hold as if the split was to show a member voted for a rate hike then sterling may have a strong showing in the morning session.

Following the minutes Mark Carney will then hold a press conference. In recent months Carney has always shown a positive tone lending support to the pound, however should he dampen the markets expectation for an interest rate hike the pound could easily fall as a result. With the speech scheduled fro 12:45 keep on your toes as this is bound to be a volatile period for sterling.

Should you have an upcoming money transfer to arrange and would like to be kept up to date with the current market trends and how we can save you on your money transfers, then please contact the office on 01494 787478. Alternatively email me with a brief overview of your currency exposure and I will happily run through the various contract types we can offer. Email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Remains Strong against the Euro & US Dollar (Tom Holian)

Sterling exchanges rates have remained close to their recent highs this week as data has been a little thin on the ground over the last few trading sessions.

Yesterday, however gave Sterling a lift following a report published by Ernst & Young which suggested that the UK will grow faster than any other economy in the G7. This supports what the IMF had stated earlier this year about UK growth and the report forecast that UK GDP will hit 3.1% this year.

This has led investors to keep their funds in Sterling and kept the Pound supported against both the Euro & US Dollar.

One problem for the UK which is looming is that of wage inflation which has remained rather low. With suggestions that the Bank of England may increase interest rates sooner than the market currently expects this piece of data is likely to take the pressure off.

For the last week Sterling has traded at levels of around 1.26 against the Euro and 1.70-1.71 against the US Dollar. With little on the data front this week all eyes will be on tomorrow’s Bank of England minutes for any clues as to whether or not any members are thinking about a rate hike at the current time.

UK GDP figures are due for release on Friday morning so again this will provide an opportunity for Sterling volatility. If the recent reports by the Ernst & Young Item Club and the IMF are backed up on Friday we could see Sterling improve further against the Euro and US Dollar.

If you have a currency requirement coming up and want more information or simply a free quote to see how much you could save on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Big Week For The Pound Next Week (Colm Gilhooly)

It’s been a pretty quiet day today with very little data out of note except in Canada, where inflation and sales figures were slightly higher than forecast helping the Loonie claw back a little bit of ground against the pound from earlier trading, although rates are still pretty attractive to buyers.

To this end it would be worth looking into next week for the main data releases that may affect your currency purchase.

For the Aussie Dollar we have a speech by Glenn Stevens overnight Monday, followed by Inflation figures in the early hours of Wednesday.  The Aussie has also clawed back a bit of ground versus the pound compared with the last 48 hours however I expect the see-saw to continue in the short term until one or other central bank makes a decisive policy change.

For the US Dollar we have CPI data on Tuesday afternoon and Durable Goods orders on Friday- US data recently has been very disappointing so it will be interesting to see if this can turn at all.  At some point it must surely and force the Federal Reserve into a slightly more hawkish stance, but until it does Cable is offering a great buy.

It is a huge week for sterling next week as the pound made big gains recently particularly on the back of this weeks high inflation figures.  However the Bank of England Minutes are published on Wednesday so we will get to see whether any members did indeed vote to hike rate this month.  Last month was a unanimous 9-0 in favour of holding interest rates steady despite some calls and indicators to hike.  If it is the same on Wednesday it could suggest we are still a way off an interest rate rise and the pound may give up some of its recent gains.  However any members voting to hike could give sterling another boost.  We also have GDP for Quarter 2 due on Friday- if this shows the UK economy is still picking up then it will likely consolidate the pounds position and put it in line for further gains.

There is very little European data out next week so I expect the Euro to remain under pressure until the next ECB rate decision rolls around, as investors are nervous what the ECB may do.

Finally the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce their latest rate decision on Wednesday evening.  The Kiwi has fallen lately as some feel calls for another rate hike may be wide of the mark so expect to see a bit of volatility here.

If you need to make a currency transfer and would like assistance to make sense of all the market information and how it may affect your currency purchase, feel free to email Colm at  cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work and how we can get you the best exchange rate.

Will the pounds positive trend continue? (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has started he day on a relatively quiet note with the only notable shift being against the Australian Dollar having lost nearly 1 cent between the high and low. Today is a quiet day in terms of any data and I would expect the pound to remain relatively stable against most majors.

Following yesterdays suspected shooting down of a Malaysian airline it is difficult to predict the impact this may have on the markets and may create some volatility as the events surrounding the tragedy unfold. Keep in contact with your broker for updates on the market.

Looking ahead and the main focus for me will be the Bank of England minutes scheduled for release on Wednesday next week. The report will give insight as to how the nine members of the MPC voted in relation to interest rates and will also give clues as to future monetary policy. What the market is looking for is clues as to when the bank is likely to raise interest rates with some analysts forecasting a rate hike during Q4 of this year. For me I still believe the bank will wait until 2015, but it is this speculation that has pushed the pound to a near two year high against the Euro and a six year high against the US dollar. For me I believe this trend is likely to continue and I would expect more value from the pound in the coming weeks.

To get further information on the currency service we provide and for assistance with your currency transfer then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

Sterling remains strong against the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling has remained above 1.26 during today’s trading session following a good start to the week.

UK Inflation data on Tuesday came out at 1.9% which has increased pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates earlier than the markets currently expect.  UK unemployment has fallen to a 6 year low as confirmed on Wednesday which has also sent Sterling to its highest level against the single currency since August 2012 creating some excellent buying opportunities.

One potential hazard concerning these levels on GBPEUR is that if the rates remain too high for too long this means that it could negatively affect British exports which in turn can harm growth for the British economy. Therefore, it could be argued that rates may start to fall soon.

Personally, I would expect Sterling to remain strong for a while as the data out recently has in the main been very positive and global investors are choosing Sterling.

Current account data is due tomorrow morning which could impact GBPEUR rates early in the morning so if you’re thinking about moving funds then feel free to send me an email tonight and I’ll respond in the morning.

Timing a trade is crucial in order to maximise exchange rates which highlights the importance of using a currency broker. If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

 

 

Will Current GBP Trend Continue? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have moved back through 1.26 on the exchange this week, moving the currency pair up to a two year high. It looked as though Sterling may come under pressure yesterday when UK employment figures were released, with average earnings coming in worse than expected. It quickly recovered however and with unemployment figures holding firm at 6.5%, it is likely the Pound will continue to find support around the current levels.

Looking ahead to the end of the trading week and there is little data of note for the UK. This morning we have some inflation data out for the Eurozone, which could prove to be a key market mover if figures come outside expectation.

GBP/USD rates continue to hold firm above 1.70, despite yesterday’s announcement by FED governor Janet Yellen that the US economy was improving. GBP/USD rates have been trading above 1.70 for some time now and every time the USD spikes and it seems pressure will be on this resistance level, it quickly runs out of steam.

GBP/AUD rates have moved back through 1.83 this week and close to a 3 month high. GBP has performed well against the AUD recently but as yet, we have not seen levels return to the four year highs witnessed at the turn of the year. Personally I feel this is unlikely to happen in the short-term, even more so following the release of the latest Chinese GDP figures. These were released yesterday and showed an improvement from Q1, news which has boosted the AUD this morning and could help to push levels back below 1.82 on the exchange.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling has another positive day against most majors (Daniel Wright) Why did inflation data lead to Sterling strength?

The Pound has had a fairly good day on the market once again with a further small improvement against the Euro pushing the GBP/EUR exchange rate extremely close to a two year high which makes it an extremely tempting time to secure Euros for the purchase of property overseas or indeed for any business requirements.

I have had many clients this week decide to lock into their exchange rate on a forward contract to make sure they do not miss out on this current spike should the Pound drop away again and it is indeed turning into a very prudent approach, as many of those clients agreed to buy their property in Europe when the rates were a lot worse.

As an example, if you were buying €120,000 three weeks ago it would have cost you roughly £3,000  less now – This could pay for you to start furnishing your new holiday home or indeed pay for flights over there and back ten times over! To lock into a rate of exchange you only need to have a small deposit available so you do not even need the full availability of funds and you can lock in your rate for anything up to a year – Feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk for more information on how to take full advantage of this handy contract type and I will be happy to answer any questions or queries you may have, along with helping you book something out if you wish.

The reason we saw the main spike yesterday was all due to a climb in inflation. A way to combat high inflation is to raise interest rates and generally a hike in interest rates can be seen as positive to the currency concerned. With the markets moving on rumour as well as fact this high inflation level did spark investors to believe that rates may go up earlier than first thought.

Today we saw unemployment figures improve a little for the U.K to 6.5% however this was pretty much cancelled out by the fact that wage growth was a little worse than expectations  and the Bank of England have also stated they need to see wage growth out weight inflation for a period of time before they feel that the recovery is on top form and they really can start to move interest rates up so this was a minor setback.

We do not have a huge amount left to come out this week for the U.K however one release to watch out for, for anyone following the Euro we do have European inflation data out at 10:00am.

If you have an upcoming transfer to carry out and want to get the best exchange rates along with great customer service and knowledge of the markets then email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  I welcome all contact for bank to bank transfers however I am afraid I cannot help with cash transactions or speculation.

Sterling hits 2 year high against the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have hit their highest levels since August 2012 following on from another good data release.

Yesterday saw UK inflation figures hit their highest level since January this year which has put more pressure on the Bank of England to look at raising interest rates in the UK sooner than the market currently expects.

In order to combat high inflation interest rates are often used as the tool and if the UK does raise interest rates this will likely help to give Sterling a lift. However, the current predictions are that rates will not be changed until next year.

UK unemployment figures are due for release at 930am and expectations are for a drop from 6.6% to 6.5%. If this happens I would expect to see Sterling gain across the board against all major currencies.

One factor to be wary of is that Bank of England governor Mark Carney suggested that there are ‘fundamental deep structural problems’ in the UK housing market and my feeling is that UK property prices simply cannot keep increasing as this discourages first time buyers which are the driving force for the future.

Previously Mark Carney limited the amount of mortgage lending when he was in charge in Canada and this could be introduced in order to slowdown the pace of increase and this could affect Sterling in the longer term.

If you would like to take advantage of these current levels of exchange rates and want to save money compared to using your bank when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

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