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GBPEUR exchange rates near 2 year high to buy Euros (Tom Holian

Sterling Euro rates have seen a big gain this week following the best UK retail sales data in over ten years.

Thanks to the effect of Black Friday consumers spent a lot more than expected and the data showed growth of 6.4%.

Wage inflation is also now rising faster than inflation for the first time since 2008 so this week the British economy looks in very good shape.

Sterling has broken through 1.27 yesterday and this look set to remain at around these levels for the time being with little data out for both the UK and Eurozone today.

Next week sees the release of UK GDP data for Q3. If it is revised downwards we could see Sterling fall marginally against the Euro so it may be worth taking advantage of this spike on Monday prior to the announcement.

Also bringing the Euro down is the issue with the Greek government. All eyes are now fixed on what is happening with Greek politics. If the Syriza party is voted in they have promised to challenge the bailout terms set out by the ECB previously which could cause instability and cause the Euro to weaken.

If you have currency transfer to make prior to Christmas and want to save money on exchange rates when buying Euros compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Sterling Spikes – Buy With GBP NOW? Exchange Rate Forecast

GBP – EUR

Sterling has seen a very strong move in its favour today as UK Retail Sales came much higher than anticipated. This could be due to the rush to buy reduced price goods on ‘Black Friday’ however one would feel that the markets would have anticipated this. There has been a swing in favour of nearly 1%, which for GBP EUR is substantial. With UK Public Sector Net Borrowing out tomorrow morning and UK Consumer Confidence, if both are Sterling favourable then it wouldn’t be out of the question to forecast GBP EUR north of 1.28. Euro Sellers should be looking to have their positions sorted prior to the ECB Quantitative Easing arrival in early 2015 – this could trigger a GBP-EUR level north of 1.30. If you don’t / can’t wait that long, Euro buyers should potentially look to trade if rates push above 1.2750, as although a further push is expected – levels are at near 3 year highs!

GBP-CHF

Sterling has finally made the gains against CHF expected late November 2015. The Swiss Central Bank cut its deposit rate in an effort to curb the CHF. It’s primary aim is to keep CHF-EUR levels above 1.20 to encourage trade with the Eurozone. However it comes at a cost against all other currencies. GBP CHF has moved nearly 1.5% in favour of the pound today. It was previously reported on this site that a strong GBP push against CHF was to be anticipated, it has just happened about 14 days later than expected! If you have a CHF purchase requirement 1.54 should potentially be available at the current growth rate, however once again it could depend on Sterling not losing ground tomorrow morning. If you have CHF and haven’t sold them already, I’d be looking to sell them sooner than later. As EUR CHF has only lost half a cent so far, I’d anticipate further bad press to weaken the Franc further.

If you have a currency exchange requirement, please feel free to contact me direct to the trading floor on 01494 787 478 or via email AJB@currencies.co.uk

I can assist with the most regularly traded currencies, not just those mentioned above!

I look forward to hearing from you…

Andrew Bromley

GBPEUR rates quite but ready for a XMAS SPIKE

GBPEUR rates of exchange have remained fairly quite this last few days as eyes remained focussed on the power houses of China, Russia and the US.  The recent fall in commodity prices has been a large swing in commodity based currencies including AUD, NZD, CAD, RUSSIA and others. This has driven many currency speculators to play with these currency pairs meaning a fall in volume going through for GBPEUR and as a result a slower amount of movement. It can also be argued that the Russian situation has had a direct impact too. With Russia economy at risk anyone exporting to them are also in trouble. One of the largest of these is Germany the power engine of the Eurozone. Guess who the UK’s largest trading partner is, the Eurozone, so as a result of uncertainty on Europe from Germany some are arguing it is slowing the volatility on markets.

Moving forward we have UK Retail figures this morning for the UK which is expected to show an improvement. So rates should climb up later today.

Next week we go into the Christmas week and I expect markets to remain quite but with little spikes in the market as volumes fall. So if you have any currency to trade this year please do get in contact and we can keep you informed of breaking news and spikes.

Contact myself, Steve Eakins, via email if needed which is hse@currencies.co.uk

GBP Rallies Against the EUR & USD (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has rallied against both the EUR & USD over the past 24 hours after some early week losses. GBP/EUR rates have spiked back above 1.26 following the release of the latest Bank of England (BoE) minutes. These came out as expected and showed that 2 members still voted in favour of an interest rate hike, with 7 members voting against this. The only negative was that UK unemployment came out slightly worse than expected at 6%, although this was countered by a rise in UK wages.

The key question for many investors is whether GBP/EUR exchange rates will hit 1.30 and in my opinion this is not likely in the short-term. The EUR continues to find support in the higher 1.20’s and I believe it will continue to do so, although I cannot see GBP slipping significantly from its positon under the current market conditions.

The Pound has also found support against the USD and has moved back above 1.57 on the exchange during Wednesday’s trading. This move is in contrast to the recent trend of USD strength and has brought some respite to those clients looking to purchase USD. Personally I still feel a move back towards 1.55 is likely early next year, so I would still be tempted to consider my position round the current levels.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Euro Forecast (Tom Holian)

The Pound vs Euro is in for a very big day tomorrow as there is a whole host of economic data due out in the morning which could impact Sterling exchange rates.

The Bank of England releases its minutes from the December meeting and the expectations are for a 7-2 vote in favour of keeping UK interest rates on hold. Closely followed will be UK unemployment data in the form of the Claimant count which shows how many people are claiming benefits. The expectation is for 2.8% so anything different could cause exchange rates to move.

Eurozone inflation is released at 10am tomorrow and this is likely to be the key data release of the day. With inflation having fallen for the last few months in Europe the ECB has cut interest rates in September and intervened with monetary policy in October in an attempt to curb further falls in inflation

This is rather detrimental to the currency involved which is why we saw a 2 year high for GBPEUR rates a few weeks ago. Eurozone inflation is expected to be 0.3% so anything lower could see Euro weakness tomorrow.

As we head into tomorrow evening all eyes turn to what is happening in the world’s leading economy. The US announces their own set of inflation figures which could strengthen the Dollar.

Closely followed will be the Fed’s interest rate decision and any hints of a rate hike could see the Dollar strengthen against Sterling.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Will it be a busy end to the year for sterling exchange rates?

Will sterling continue to climb in the New Year or fall against its peers? This is a very valid question at this time and with rates at such interesting historical levels begs the questions, what will happen towards the end of the year?

The most important day for sterling is probably tomorrow with the Bank of England Minutes form their latest interest rate setting meeting plus Unemployment data also released. The rate has held fairly firm at 6% on the Unemployment rate which is encouraging as a sign of the UK economy finally getting back on track. The rate had however been falling and it might be that with other economic data showing not such great performance any lack of improvement in the figures is seen as damaging for the buoyant pound.

This really does appear to be the most important event on the calendar this week and before the end of the month so if you are considering moving sterling not just before the end of the year but also in 2015, it really might be sensible to make some careful plans now. Two years ago sterling was at 1.25 against the euro approaching Christmas before falling to 1.14 by February and March!

By making us aware of your transfer and any possible target rates we can work together to try and help you get the most from the market. Should you wish to learn more please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. Merry Christmas!

GBP NOK & GBP SEK Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

If you read my previous article about falling oil prices you’ll have an understanding as to how much of an impact this can have on exchange rates.

With Russia cutting interest rates and the Rouble falling through the floor this is also having a big impact on exchange rates in both Sweden and in particular Norway.

Sterling vs NOK rates have moved by over 5% this morning and in the space of the last ten minutes GBPSEK rates have moved by 1%! This makes a huge difference to the amount involved and can mean the difference of actually being able to afford the transaction.

Oil prices are now at their lowest level since July 2009 and are set to fall even further over the next few days with some analysts predicting a fall as much as US$40 per barrel. Currently the price per barrel is around US$60.

As Norway is such a large exporter of oil the falling price per barrel is set to have a dramatic effect on the exchange rate between Sterling and the NOK.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to take advantage of the recent movements then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Oil Prices and effect on Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

Historically speaking when oil prices fall this often helps to strengthen the US Dollar. This happens because the US is a huge importer of oil so when prices are low this means the US can import more cheaply and then use cheap oil to increase manufacturing and increase growth.

With the US leading the race for who has the strongest economy in the western world this news of a 5 year low on oil prices is likely to keep the Dollar strong against the Pound and Euro.

Therefore, if you have a currency transfer to make to buy US Dollars it may be worth organising something this side of Christmas.

Moving over to the UK we saw a fall in construction output on Friday which caused the Pound to weaken against the Euro and Dollar. The UK has shown a few signs of slowing down recently which has seen the Pound fall against the single currency after hitting a 2 year high in the month of October.

This week sees the release of UK inflation on Tuesday as well as the banking stress tests. Any falls in inflation levels for the UK could mean an interest rate hike will be put back further towards the end of 2015 which could weaken Sterling.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney is due to speak on Tuesday and any hints on monetary policy change could create volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Pound Exchange Rates – When to BUY or SELL Currency – Forecast (Andrew Bromley)

Staying within what seems to be its natural trading range, GBP EUR opened up comfortably within the 1.26 range. The Euro weakened after lunch yesterday following a brief stint within the 1.25 range. Essentially the Eurozone Central Bank had made nearly €1 Trillion available for banks to lend cheaply to their customers, but was not taken advantage of. This lead to the ECB announcing that full blown Quantitative Easing (QE) was a definite for 2015, leading to the Euro losing roughly the cent it had gained.

Looking forwards there is a lot of EUR GBP data out next week, primarily at the beginning of the week…

UK Inflation (CPI) 09:30 Tuesday, German economic sentiment 10:00 Tuesday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carneys speech at 10:30 (also Tuesday) and the minutes of the Bank of England’s most recent interest rate decision (Wednesday midday).

If you do have a currency exchange requirement that you’d like to get sorted before Christmas, please feel free to call me directly to the trading floor on 01494 787 478. I’m also contactable direct via email AJB@currencies.co.uk

2015 looks to have a lot of volatility from week one (UK Election speculation, Eurozone QE) – make sure you have eliminated as much risk as possible by using contract options available to you from an experienced currency broker.

 

 

Pound hits two week lows, but bounces back!

GBP EUR

The Pound flirted with the 1.25s today seeing a day low of 1.2570. This has been a welcome opportunity, subsequently taken advantage of by Euro sellers – these have been the best prices seen for just over two weeks. Sterling rebounded swiftly however as just after midday, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that the cheap loans made available to European Banks had not been fully utilised. This therefore leaves the markets expecting the ECB to have no choice but to proceed with full ‘Sovereign Quantitative Easing’. QE is generally seen as negative for an economy so the fact that comments reinforce its inevitability push GBP EUR closer to 1.30.

Prediction – GBP EUR to hit 1.29 before the end of 2014

GBP AUD

Sterling Aussie made strong gains at a similar to GBP EUR gains on the back of comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens. Stevens publically announced that he thought AUD was very overvalued, up to 10 cents overvalued against USD! This pushed GBP AUD north of 1.90 and will close the day there or there about. On 26th November my colleague Daniel Wright predicted 1.90 within the next few years – it appears he was spot on!

GBP ZAR

Sterling Rand has hit 18.29 for the first time since July – Is it the spike to take advantage of…

Feel free to contact me direct to the trading floor – 01494 787 478 – AJB@currencies.co.uk

 

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