UK Manufacturing figures and the NIESR GDP estimate could set the tone for the pound for the rest of the week (Mike Vaughan)
Prior to last Thursday’s slight correction the general movements for the pound over the last month have been very positive. We have hit a near 2 ½ year high against the greenback having shifted 3.3% since mid-November. A similar trend has been seen against a number of currencies, most notably just shy of 7% against the AUD (a near four year high), 8% against the ZAR (five year high) and in excess of 4% against the CAD (four year high) all since the start of November. This has created some unexpected opportunities and shows how important keeping in touch with your account manager can be.
Sterling had rallied up past 1.21 mid last week but following the ECB interest rate decision to keep rates on hold and the subsequent post decision press conference, the Euro rallied back towards 1.19 – showing how quickly levels can move. For me I believe this trend could be a real opportunity for Euro sellers as I personally believe longer term with the positive sentiment coming from the UK that we are likely to see a sustained period of GBP/EUR sitting above 1.20.
Looking at data this week today’s UK industrial production and manufacturing figures at 09:30 on along with NIESR UK GDP estimates at 15:00 will be a key area to focus on should you have an interest in the pound. Heading towards the latter stages of the week and we have the ECB monthly report at 09:00 Thursday and to finish off the week employment data from the euro zone on Friday.
Strong rates on cable
As mentioned the pound is currently sitting just shy of a 2 ½ year high against the greenback. Following Fridays non-farm payroll figures (slightly better than forecast) the pound has remained range bound between 1.63-1.64 – some attractive buy levels in my view.
This week again UK industrial and manufacturing and GDP data today will be key for anyone looking at cable, something which could push levels back towards the 1.64 mark. Other important data will include the US budget statement at 19:00, with Thursday looking the busiest day for the dollar with initial jobless claims and monthly retail sales figures due for release at 13:30
A good time to buy AUD and CAD?
Sterling’s recent run against the AUD and CAD has been considerable. Since August the pound has rallied over 10% against the Canadian dollar, a huge shift considering that GBP/CAD rates are usually relatively stable. In fact during a three year period (Aug 2010 to Aug 2103) the high low range was only 6% and with levels at a four year high, for me it is a very good time to buy CAD.
Looking at the AUD, rates have dramatically improved since the lows of 1.445 in April pushing through 1.81 last week. This is over a 20% increase and a near four year high, again an opportunity for AUD buyers. This week is a relatively quiet week with the major data set in Australia being unemployment figures on Thursday – expected to increase from 5.7% to 5.8% and could lead to further losses for the dollar.
To dicsuss my market views and to get a full overview of the currency service we provide then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email me with your query and currency requirement and I will happily run through the various contract types available. Email Mike at email@example.com
Well folks it is that time of year when we reflect on the year so far and look to next year. As the site suggest we make forecasts and the forecast for sterling in 2014 would have to be positive. What are the possible pitfalls however and against which currencies will see the most gains? And what can you do to maximise your deals with this knowledge?
Watch the US – where is market sentiment?
The UK is leading the pack with the highest growth rates amongst European economies. The US is growing faster but their QE programme is without doubt fuelling these increases. At some point the US will have to turn off the QE taps and there will be a very strong market reaction not just on the US dollar but on the euro, pound almost every other currency.
Market Sentiment is a key determinant of the value of sterling. If investors are confident in the global economic outlook the pound should do well as the UK relies heavily on trade from overseas and the services sector which makes up a large part of our economy, relies on international trade.
The pound is likely to do well in 2014 as the global economic outlook improves and the UK recovery remains on track. Of course there are many pitfalls ahead and so the right type of contract is key. A forward contract is the perfect way to lock in your rate for the future without exposing yourself. If you are unsure about how this works or would like any information on the currency markets it really is worth your while speaking to us. Please feel free to speak to me Jonathan on firstname.lastname@example.org
Pitfalls, highs and lows
I expect the EU referendum and Eurozone debt crisis will be key factors that could affect sterling rates in 2014. The Aussie looks likely to be on the back foot as does the rand so I think sterling will push higher against these currencies. Whilst the early part of the year should see GBPUSD at similair levels, the prospect of QE tapering means GBPUSD should drop to the kind of levels we saw earlier this year. Although if you ask me we are a very long away away from the US economy being ready to give up its QE addiction.
I do hope you have found this information useful and look forward to hearing from you if you would like to learn more about our excellent rates, informative forecasts and friendly helpful service.
Sterling levels have once again fallen below 1.20 – what is the future for the GBPEUR – Buying Euros – Selling EUROS – STEVE EAKINS
Yesterday GBPEUR rates creeped back below 1.20, and once broken raced back to 1.1950 within 20 minutes. It again goes to highlight the large emotional barrier around the 1.20 threshold. Like in the other handful of occasions we have seen 1.20 broken through 2013 within a week we have been back under. It shows how important it is to take opportunities and how quickly the markets can move. For example a €200,000 purchase now costs over £3,000 more compared to only Monday.
This fall came from commentary from the head of the European Central bank, Mario Draghi, when he spoke well of the single currencies situation and forecast. He revised up growth forecasts for the single currency to over a percent. This was absorbed by the Euro and saw it creep up in value by over 1% within just 90 minutes. Here we offer SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS and RATE ALERTS helping our clients save themselves from missing opportunities and avoid disappointment. If you are in the market looking at a currency transfer feel free to contact the experts. Here with over 12 years’ experience we are well placed to help. Plus with access to award winning exchange rates you can be comfortable in knowing that you are saving money compared to your current provider; bank or broker.
Will GBPEUR rates break 1.20 again?
My view is that there is possible going to be a time before the New Year when rates breach 1.20 but as a trading level I think it is unlikely. Today there is data from the US that could push the value of the single currency. This is their unemployment figures which has an impact on the US’s forecast for growth and when they will start to tapper their own QE program. As the USDEUR currency pairing is the most popular trading pair, what impacts one will change the value and demand for the other. So in real terms this data release tomorrow could weaken or strengthen the demand for the euro making it cheaper or more expensive to buy with the Pound.
Next week the busy days are Tuesday and Thursday with Manufacturing and Industrial Data for the UK and Europe. These will be the busy days next week on the exchange markets.
If you are interested in knowing the live prices, current forecasts and strategies on offer contact the Author – STEVE EAKINS – email@example.com or on the telephone number at the top of this page.
GBPEUR exchange rates and GBPUSD exchange rates took a turn for the worse yesterday following the news delivered in the Autumn Statement. The UK’s growth forecast has been raised up for both the end of this year and next year but revised figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that UKGDP dropped by 7.2% during 2008-2009 and not 6.3% a previously estimated. This saw Sterling’s confidence fall against the Euro in particular and later in the day we saw falls against the Dollar as US GDP came out higher than expected.
US GDP was measured at 3.6% in the third quarter of this year higher than estimates of 2.8%. This growth rate was the best since the first quarter of last year and shows signs that the US recovery is fully under way and their continued use of QE has seemingly worked albeit for the time being. The Fed next meet on December 17th-18th and QE will most likely be on the agenda. IF we see any tapering we could see GBPUSD rates drop below 1.60 both in the lead up to the announcement and straight after. With GBPUSD rates hitting their highest level in 4 years earlier this week the Dollar fought back quickly after this data release.
With the Bank of England and ECB deciding to keep interest rates on hold this gave the Euro some strength as there have been hints that the UK economy could afford an interest rate increase and that the ECB has decided against cutting their cash rate to negative which saw some confidence pumped back into the single currency. Rates on mid-market hit 1.1940 after hitting 1.21+ during this week’s trading sessions.
Later toda the US releases its Non-Farm Payroll data which is often the biggest market mover as far as data is concerned so if you’re worried about the consequences this may have on your currency purchase then get in touch with me directly for a free quote Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org Having worked for one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokers for 11 years I’m confident of saving you money when buying your currency.
If you’re considering buying Australian Dollars soon then it may be worth taking advantage of current rates which are now close to 4 year highs for GBPAUD.
Sterling exchange rates come crashing down. 1.20 against the Euro now gone. Where will the pound now head. (Ben Amrany)
Sterling exchange rates have come crashing back down today by an average of 1% wiping away its recent gains against the EUR, CHF, CAD, AUD & USD.
Today was always going to be a volatile days trading with the Autumn budget, interest rate decisions in the UK and Europe and growth figures out of the US all happening within a few hours of each other. The Budget did not really do the pound much harm at the time of the speech but once the European Central Bank had their press conference the pound really started to weaken across the board. Rates against the Euro are at the lowest in over a week after the European Central Bank upgraded its growth forecasts and the head of the ECB appeared to be cautious about more easing all helping the Euro to rebound.
The stance and tone of the ECB’s comments have caused more optimism in the Euro zone and it may now be hard for the pound to claw back its losses back towards 1.20 or 1.21. This is a welcome relief for those of you that need to buy the pound and now may represent an attractive time to secure your funds. If you are selling the Euro to buy sterling feel free to contact me at email@example.com and I can explain the options available to you.
For those of you that are still looking at buying the Euro I have been stating to my clients that if you trade when the pound is at a fresh high this gives you the peace of mind that you have secured your funds at one of the best times. I still had many clients that held off hoping that the pound would continue to rise but the pound always has a habit of crashing when you feel it is only going one way. Unfortunately exchange rates never move in one direction and a reversal of the rates is inevitable at one time or another. You now have to judge how long it may take to rise again and if it will happen in the time frame you have. The uncertainty in what may occur with the pound is what tends to make the wiser clients secure their funds sooner rather than later. At the end of the day indecision normally costs you more than a bad decision which many clients will now be thinking.
Looking forward to next week there are more growth figures from Europe and a raft of production figures from the UK and a big report from the ECB out next Thursday. Last time the pound was over 1.20 last January within 3 weeks it was down at 1.15. I don’t think the same will happen but you never know what is around the corner with the pound. So lets hope a similar trend wont occur and if you want to have the peace of mind then forward buying may just be a wise decision.
If you have an up and coming transfer to buy the Euro and have been holding out for 1.20 or above and need to make your transfer in the near future don’t get caught out by a declining pound. There is the chance we may see a rebound again so it would be best to contact me and have things ready to move should this occur. You can contact myself Ben Amrany at firstname.lastname@example.org
If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at email@example.com
Sterling exchange rates have remained reasonably steady in trading today as we await a number of key economic data releases towards the end of this week.
The one big mover was once again against the Australian Dollar where once again we saw comments overnight from the RBA (Reserve bank of Australia) that the strong Australian Dollar was still a problem for the Australian economy opening the door for some type of weakening in the coming months. markets do move on speculation as well as fact and this led to the GBP-AUD rate going over 1.80 for the first time in two and a half years.
Tomorrow we have the interest rate decisions from both the U.K and Eurozone and although no major rate movements are expected, any comments from the BOE (Bank of England) or ECB ( European Central bank will be jumped on immediately which may lead to a volatile Sterling Euro rate in trading tomorrow.
The main market mover will be the press conference at 13:30pm from the European Central bank assuming no surprises crop up in the earlier rate decisions.
Investors hang off of every word that comes out of Head of the European Central Bank’s mouth so if you have a pending currency transfer to carry out involving wither buying or selling the Euro it may be prudent to keep a very close eye on exchange rates at that point.
If you are looking to exchange foreign currency in the near future involving either buying or selling the Pound against any major currency then it is well worth getting in touch with me directly. Not only can I keep you up to date with the very latest market movements but when it comes to buying your currency I can also help you get the very best rate of exchange.
You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on firstname.lastname@example.org and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally.
GBPZAR 5 year high, GBPAUD and GBPCAD 4 year highs, GBPUSD at 2 1/2 year high and GBPEUR over 1.20…
Sterling is at truly exceptional levels against most currencies as the UK’s recovery rakes hold and the UK sets itself apart from other leading economies by appearing to be likely to be one of the first leading economies to be raising interest rates. Whilst the United States are debating when to stop QE, the UK have not done any QE for the last year. The ECB are looking at possibly negative interest rates and the Bank of Canada is no longer looking to tighten policy. Overnight we learnt that GDP in Australia was weaker than expected, again a sign of another leading economy weakening whilst the UK has been performing well.
With the often crazy Christmas period fast approaching and changes in banking days there is a lot to be said for wrapping up a transfer like a present. The recent spike on exchanges rates has been a great gift to you and now could be an excellent time to either buy your currency or lock into a forward contract to minimise any losses. You can then remove the stress of the transfer and focus on the more important things at this time of year!
If you have a pending transfer we offer a specialist service to assist you in securing the most from the market. For more information at no cost or obligation please do feel free to get in touch. I am a specialist currency broker and my job is to assist private clients and businesses in managing their exposure to the currency markets, ensuring payments are made quickly and safely at the very best rates.
Please feel free to contact me Jonathan on email@example.com or call +44 1494 787 478 and ask to speak to me.