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Sterling slips to start off the week as Brexit concerns weigh on the Pound – RBA to change rates in Australia tonight? (Daniel Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have had a fairly bad day against most major currencies, while many brits have been spending their bank holiday sorting out the garden.

It appears that a few Brexit concerns are creeping back into the market and without London markets being open to defend the Pound it has dropped off against the board.

I still feel that Sterling is going to have a good May and that although it is an easy pitch for many to say that the Pound will crumble I think we may start to see the remain campaign start to edge closer to victory as those in the leave campaign still have failed to be able to offer a firm and solid answer as to what would happen if we left. The truth is of course nobody knows and they will not know until they have negotiated so voting to leave will be a gamble and I feel a lot of people are starting to realise this.

The U.S economy has started to drop off a little giving the Pound a good boost against the Dollar and overnight tonight we have a key moment for the Australian Dollar. Later on we have the RBA Interest rate decision and although it is doubtful that we will see a cut in rates you cannot rule it out. Should we see a cut for Australia then the Australian Dollar may weaken off quite a bit overnight.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

With GBPUSD rates hitting a 4 month high what should we expect for Sterling vs US Dollar exchange rates during May? (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the US Dollar has gradually seen an improvement during April owing to a number of different factors.

With President Obama coming over to the UK recently and stating that he would prefer to see the UK remain part of the European Union this has helped to give the Pound some support vs the Greenback as the Brexit vote appears less and less likely.

The US economy has continued to improve slowly with unemployment looking strong. However, it was only a few months ago that the US were expected to raise interest rates as many as 4 times during 2016 but recently we have seen a change in expectation to just twice.

However, with only 8 months to go this seems less and less likely especially when you consider that the US will go to the polls later this year and to interfere with economic policy would be a surprise if it happens late into the election period.

On Wednesday the US releases both unemployment figures as well as Trade Balance data and although I would expect to see strong unemployment data I think the Trade Balance data could cause a wobble for the US economy.

With the global economy having slowed in recent times I would not be surprised to see a fall in this figure which ultimately could cause the Dollar to weaken vs Sterling.

Indeed, EURUSD exchange rates are at their best level since May 2015 which has also helped to give GBUSD rates a lift with rates now trading at their highest level to buy US Dollars since January 2016 or a 4 month high.

Friday is likely to be the most volatile day for GBUSD exchange rates as we see the publication of US non-farm payroll data which is often the biggest market mover of the month.

Any signs of a possible fall could lead to even better rates for GBPUSD so if you’re looking to buy US Dollars in the short term then it could be worth waiting to see what happens on Friday afternoon.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling Forecast (Dayle Littlejohn)

In recent weeks sterling has been making gains against most of the major currencies off the back of a change in momentum in regards to the EU referendum.

It was only a month ago when Chancellor George Osborne budget was overturned and Prime Minister David Cameron offshore accounts were under the spotlight.

However tides have changed, especially last weekend when US President Barack Obama was rallying votes to remain in the EU.

Its only a matter of time until the ‘out’ campaign tell the public why we should be leaving and exchange rates will begin to fall once more.

If you have a currency transfer to make  before June 23rd, this spike we have seen in the last 2 weeks is something to take advantage of.

The currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than the high street banks and other brokerages. I specialise in property purchases and sales. Therefore if you are buying or selling a property this year and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn. Please note im not in the office until Tuesday due to the UK bank holiday.

The more information you provide me, the more information I can provide you. Below is a list of what I require: your name, currency pair, brief description of requirement, amount, budget, timescales, telephone number and convenient time to call.

 

Has Sterling’s good run against the Euro come to an end? (Tom Holian)

With the Pound Euro exchange rates having hit close to 2 month highs during this week it looks as though Sterling’s strong rally vs the single currency has finally come to an end.

The Eurozone announced that the economy grew better than expected coming out at 0.6% growth compared to the expectation of 0.4%.

The good news was also higher than the previous quarter and the good news continued with Eurozone unemployment figures which came out at 10.2% the best data for over 4 years.

The positive data from the Eurozone has led to the single currency strengthening vs Sterling and putting paid to the Pound’s recent strong run.

Although Eurozone inflation has shown a fall the overall good news in the form of GDP has caused the Euro to fight back vs Sterling.

With the UK celebrating a bank holiday on Monday the currency markets will remain quiet until trading lines open again on Tuesday.

However, arguably the biggest day of next week for anyone with a Sterling Euro currency transfer to make will be Wednesday when the Eurozone announces both Retail Sales as well as Services data.

With GDP on the rise my expectation is for this data to once again be strong which could cause GBPEUR rates to fall by mid week.

The Euro vs the US Dollar is close to its highest level since May 2015 and this has also been another reason for the recent movement of the Euro.

The EU referendum vote is now just less than 2 months away and until this is resolved Sterling Euro exchange rates are likely to remain uncertain.

With this ongoing uncertainty many of my clients have opted to buy a forward contract which allows you to secure an exchange rate for the future for a small deposit. This allows you to eliminate the risk of where the currency markets may be for a future date and allows you to budget which is extremely useful when buying a property in Europe.

Having worked in the industry since 2003 if you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Is the bullish run for GBP exchange rates now over? (Joseph Wright)

As the end of the week approaches it would seem like Sterling’s rebound is coming to an end, as across the board Sterling is generally down today as it was yesterday as well.

Sterling has recently been boosted by a number of world leaders such as IMF managing director Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and US President Barack Obama all suggesting that Britain is better off remaining within the Eurozone, and this has been reflected within the most recent ‘Brexit’ polls as the ‘remain’ camp are seeing a significant lead and this has boosted risk sentiment towards the UK moving forward and therefore, Sterling strength.

Those looking for the best time to convert Sterling into Euro’s may wish to consider doing that sooner rather than later, as since GBPEUR tested the 1.2900 trading level a few times earlier this week, it’s since been on a slow decline downwards which is something I’m expecting to continue in the lead up to the EU Referendum on the 23rd of June.

Although Sterling’s upwards trend has begun to slow against the Dollar, the slowdown has been far less abrupt than GBPEUR’s and I think we could see some further strength in the rate of cable before market jitters and political uncertainty once again take over in the Referendums lead up. I’m not expecting to see the inter-bank rate go higher than 1.50 before June the 23rd but I do think it could test the late 1.40’s before returning to its longer term downward trend.

In recent times Sterling has performed well on UK bank holidays due to the thin volumes traded. Those with a interest in a strengthening Pound will hope the currency get’s off to a good start off the back of this as the beginning of May is going to be busy on the financial data front, with plenty of scope for volatility and potential Sterling weakness.

Next week see’s the release of US Non-Farm Payroll Figures, US Manufacturing, AUD Interest Rate Decision, EU Producer Price figures and US Unemployment data just to name a few of the biggest potential movers of currency markets. Although none of the data sets mentioned apply specifically to the UK economy, all have the potential to swing GBP based currency pairs so they’re worth paying attention to as the currency market is a zero sum game and there will always winners or losers.

If you would like to discuss the weeks major events, or an upcoming currency requirement you have involving GBP, it’s worth getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to take advantage of award winning exchange rates and high levels of client security. You can also speak to me over the phone by calling 01494 787 478 and asking for Joseph.

GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD sliding, only GBP/USD likely to rise (Joshua Privett)

After a dramatic week for the Pound and the intervention of a sitting US President, GBP/EUR and GBP/AUD are starting to move back down after the near two month highs reached yesterday.

This is likely due to poor UK growth figures for the first quarter of this year, which has caused the dominant story of the positive effects of Obama’s visit on the Remain campaign to fade into the background.

The only reason GBP/USD is on the rise is due to poor US housing data.

With popularity ratings higher than our own PM in the UK, Obama’s initially gentle and then firmer suggestions that the UK will be better off in the EU rather than out of it, has been received overwhelmingly positively by financial markets. Frankly, by a surprising amount.

But Polls are still well within the margin of error, and with such a large swathe of the population still undecided, UK based companies will have to seriously re-evaluate their exposure ahead of the Referendum vote. Similar to February when Boris Johnson announced that he was joining the Leave campaign, mass Pound sell-offs will likely occur unless the Remain camp accrues a commanding lead.

Particularly since whilst the Remain camp are ahead, polls on voter turnout itself favour the Leave camp overwhelmingly.

In the short term there is no additional data out between now and the start of may which is expected to assist Euro buyers, the final two weeks of each month are relatively quiet compared to the onslaught of information at the beginning, so expect severe volatility on GBP/EUR and GBP/AUD next week.

With rates on GBP/EUR down 0.7 cents and rates on GBP/AUD down 1.4 cents from the highs of yesterday, and with UK growth slowing by a third compared to the previous quarter, this dominant narrative will likely see gradual slides on buying rates in the run up to May.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Joshua. We can discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return, particularly those whose requirements may be a month or two away.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current levels can be fixed to avoid potential drops on the currency markets as we edge closer to the Referendum affecting your transfer.

Those with more immediate requirements can receive a free, competitive quote, whist Euro and Dollar sellers can reach out and I will outline how best to safely ride the expected movements in your favour to any peaks which emerge in the short-term. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Rallies Following Positive GDP Figures (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling rallied again during Wednesday mornings trading, following better than expected UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Figures came in above market expectation at 2.1% growth and this helped to boost Sterling’s value further, following a positive run during the first half of the trading week.

GBP/EUR rates jumped following US President Barack Obama’s comments on the weekend, regarding how Britain would be worse off outside of the EU, comments which boosted market confidence and helped to push the Pound up through 1.29 at this week’s high. This move was intensified following this morning GDP figures and a one point it seemed as though GBP/EUR rates may push 1.30, before the EUR found support snapping back towards 1.2850 by the close of European trading.

It was interesting to note that Sterling’s support waned following a report from White House hopeful Ted Cruz who said that the UK should be ‘at the front of the que’ for a trade deal with the US should we choose to leave the EU after June’s referendum. Whilst I will take these comments with a pinch of salt it comes as a stark reminder that despite this week’s reports indicating that we are more likely to stay than leave, no one actually knows what the outcome will be. The markets are likely to remain volatile for the foreseeable future and I would not be gambling on huge improvements for the Pound beyond the current levels.

If you have an upcoming GBP currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Ahead of GDP Numbers Expected to Fall (James Lovick)

The pound has seen an excellent run across all of the major currencies although that rally appears to be running out of steam after another last push higher throughout yesterday. GBP EUR in particular is showing signs that the rally may not push much higher from here.

This morning sees the release of eagerly awaited GDP numbers for the first quarter of 2016. Economic data for the manufacturing and construction sectors have performed badly in recent months and we are expecting this to show in the numbers released this morning. In fact the figures were so bad last month for industrial and manufacturing production that there is a real concern that the economy has seen a sizeable drop in output. The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) have forecast a reading of just 0.3% this morning. There forecasts of the official figures are usually very accurate so I struggle to see a good outcome for the pound this morning. A figure at 0.3% should carry some risk for the pound and anything lower would be particularly worrying.

As far as the EU referendum is concerned there will inevitably be increased volatility as we approach 23rd June. This is a major political situation for Britain to find itself in. What I find interesting is that the Leave campaign have so far had very little to say on the matter. On the other hand the Remain campaign have now used and published all the major institutions economic forecasts to support their cause including the OECD outlook this morning. They have now also had the benefit of US President Barack Obama and his extremely pro EU comments which were borderline threatening when suggesting we would be at the back of the queue when negotiating any new trade deals. They have also had their leaflet drop to every home in Britain. I don’t feel this lack of action from the Leave campaign so early on in the campaign is coincidental. I would expect to see very strong campaigning from the Leave campaign from here on and if done convincingly should see some major headwinds for sterling going forward.

Buyers of Euros in particular may wish to consider taking advantage of the 5 cent gain in the last two weeks for GBP EUR. Considering rates distinctly looked like they were heading below 1.20  for this pair just a fortnight ago highlights the kind of  downward pressure on sterling but there is clearly a win opportunity at the moment for anyone holding sterling.

If you have an upcoming GBP currency requirement either buying or selling with any other currency and would like to be kept up to date with key market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively you can email me directly at jll@currencies.co.uk

Will Sterling Keep Getting Stronger (Ben Fletcher)

After Barrack Obama heavily involved himself with the Brexit over the weekend, the Remain campaign has increased its slender lead. Over the last 20 days there has been an increase in the GBP/EUR rate of nearly 7 cent which means anyone with £200,000 to change has gained over €11000.

The big question moving forward and what most my clients have asked is will the rate continue to strengthen? I think in the next few weeks there is certainly a chance the rate will remain around a similar level however it seems unlikely that the rate will rise into the mid 1.30’s. I believe as we move towards the actual vote itself there will be uncertainty and the rate will fall again. It’s also worth considering that the Leave campaign has only in the last few weeks been allocated their funding so there will certainly be an onslaught coming soon.

Data releases this week

GDP is released for the UK tomorrow which is expected to show a small reduction in both the month on month and year on year results. On Thursday there is a huge amount of Data being released in Europe on Thursday which is not expected to be particularly good, if the rates rise to the 1.30 level I suggest if you need to buy Euros that would be the time and not to wait.

As a side note this week the Bank of Japan on Thursday are potentially going to introduce further negative interest rates. The Japanese Yen as of recent has received a lot of investment and should the interest rate cut take place I would not be surprised to see money invested into Sterling. An influx of investment could certainly mean Thursday morning could be a great Euro buying window.

If you would like to find out further information with regards to my forecast please reach out to me at brf@currencies.co.uk. I would be more than happy to answer any questions you may have with regards to the GBP/EUR rate.

Sterling recent climb – is this the best level to buy EUROS? – STEVE EAKINS

The value of the Pound has risen dramatically over the last 2 days,  it has been the single biggest and most consistent positive movement we have seen this year. The reason for this gain is following the visit by Barack Obama and his positive stance on the Brexit and the impact it could have on trade.  The leave campaign who are wanting us to leave the EU have been suggesting that we would turn away from the EU and towards the US for trade and commerce.  That has somewhat been destroyed by the President of the United States following his visit. He stated that why would they prioritise a trade agreement with a smaller country rather than dealing with the European block. When he left the UK he flew to Germany to work on that said trade agreement.

This stance has somewhat changed the polls of the potential result to the referendum in less than two months with a stay in vote the favourite result by a distant.  This makes the uncertainty of a leave win less likely and therefore Sterling has started to recover.

As we get closer to the Brexit I can certainly see rates dropping down once more but I think it is rather unlikely as to whether we will see the lows of 1.10 that some have forecasted.

In the nearer future watch out for UK GDP figures which are released tomorrow on Wednesday. This will give the market a better idea of how the impact and uncertainty of the Brexit has impacted the economy and commerce.  The market is expecting a fall which could be reflected in Sterling’s value.

Rates currently sit at the best levels to buy the euro that we have seen for nearly 3 months, buying £200,000 worth of euros now gets you over €5,800 compared to a week ago and €11,250 compared to three weeks ago.

To have a discussion about how to take advantage, forecasts and indeed how the market could impact your situation please get in contact. Email myself STEVE EAKINS via hse@currencies.co.uk

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