Pound Sterling Forecast

Good morning to our regular readers and welcome to any new ones – I hope you had a great weekend!

Today is extremely thin on the ground data wise with nothing due to come out for the U.K, however Sterling is down accross the board losing ground against all major currencies in early morning trading.

This really does suggest that confidence is dropping in the U.K and indeed the Pound leading up to an important interest rate decision out at midday on thursday.

There is an extremely small chance of interest rate movement however it would be a complete shock and in my opinion a really bold move by the Bank of England so don’t hold out for this one.

There is also the possibility of the Bank of England commenting on further Quantitative Easing (QE) I think that there is a much higher chance of this happeneing and any mention or action of this may lead to large Sterling losses – those who had an eye on the strength of the Pound last year will know the mere mention of QE can lead to rapid and large losses for the pound.

Other data of interest due out this week is Industrial and Manufacturing Production due out on Wednesday, this could highlight the chances of a double dip recession if poor.

Trade Balance figures are also due out later in the week coupled with an estimate of upcoming GDP figures by the NIESR (National Institue of Economic and Social Research)

These are both important releases and as always a negative release may lead to Sterling weakness yet a positive release Sterling strength.

Personally I think it may be a testing week ahead for the Pound however anything can happen as you are all aware…

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