Daily Archives: March 30, 2011
The pound had another bad day yesterday losing a cent vs. both the euro and dollar. Sterling remains a concern for investors following GDP figures for the UK at 09:30 yesterday. Month on Month data was a touch better than the expected -0.6 at -0.5, while year on year data remains in line with expectations at 1.5% growth. This bought the UK’s economic plight to the forefront of traders and investors minds as it highlights how unlikely an interest rate hike is, subsequently reducing demand for the pound.
Today there is a host of data due out that is worth keeping an eye on:
For the UK we have the CBI trade survey this morning, which may give us an insight into short-term trends in the UK retail and wholesale distribution sector. It may give us a clue about how retail sales figure will look in April. Because the retail sector is so important to the UK economy this data carry’s a fair bit of weight and a figure that varies from expectations could cause volatility.
Overnight we have UK consumer confidence, expectations are for a low figure, so a positive release could offer some support to sterling.
From Europe we have consumer confidence figures early on in the morning. With all the problems in Portugal and other countries like Spain and Italy still under scrutiny, it will be interesting to see if this uncertainty is filtering through to confidence figures. For more information on how this could affect the euro, get in touch via the form on the right.
From the US today we have mortgage application figures, key to the struggling housing sector, and unemployment data. Both highlight areas of the US economy that are struggling and could have a negative effect on the USD. However, greenback exchange rate movement may not be as clear cut… with the US currency benefitting from safe haven movement as a result of the problems in the Middle East, and the knock on effect to oil prices, this could overshadow any US data.
Later in the evening speeches from FED reserve presidents Fisher and Bullard, could both influence investor sentiment and cause exchange rate movement.
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