Monthly Archives: April 2011
Pound at a 17 month high against the USD
Sterling exchange rates spiked to a 17 month high today of 1.6746 against the USD. The FED kept interest rates on hold last night at 0.25% but Bernanke made comments last night that they were in no hurry to reverse their policy status and cut the US growth forecast.
The rise in the exchange rate seems to be down to more Dollar weakness than sterling strength and investors are now looking towards the November 2009 high of 1.6879.
Yesterday the pound had a slight boost after GDP figures came out showing that the UK economy grew by 0.5% in Q1 of 2011. This was in line with consensus forecasts compiled last week.
If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.
GDP data key for Sterling, GBPUSD at 18 month high
It’s a relatively quite day on the data front for the pound today, with the main focus on data from the US. At 14:00 we have housing inflation figures, expected to show a reduction in prices, then at 15:00 we have two key releases; consumeer confidence and the FED’s manufacturing survey, expected to come out in line with last months release. Consumer confidence is anticipated to show an improvement which could lend some support to the dollar. GBPUSD is currently sitting at an 18 month high so current rates pose an excellent opportunity for anyone looking to buy USD in the short term.
With today’s data covering the US side, the main UK release is GDP data tomorrow. Gross Domestic Product figures represent the output of the UK economy, (the total sum of goods and services produced). This is vital at present as the UK is tittering on the edge of falling back into recession. Therefore markets and investors will be looking for a good figure in this months GDP release. If the economy is seen to be recovering it may lead to an interest rate hike this year, which could strengthen the pound. On the either hand a poor figure may make a hike in the base rate even more unlikely than it appears to be a present and subsequently the pound could lose value across the board.
GDP data is released at 09:30 on Wednesday expectations are for 0.5% growth for the Quarter and 1.8% year on year. It’s worth remembering the figures for the final quarter of 2010, expectations were for +0.8% (economic growth) however the actual release came out at -0.5% a huge shock to the market resulting in the pound losing value against all major currencies. The main reason given for this shock fall was poor weather which had cost the retail sector. This time round we’ve had on of the hottest April’s on record. Will this feed through to strong retail figures and subsequently a better than expected GDP release?
Retail sales boost the pound
The pound has risen to a 16 month high against the US Dollar this morning spiking at 1.6540 at present. At present sterling exchange rates are up against all other majors.
The rally for the pound seems to be down to the better than expected retail sales. They came out +0.2% when the market was expecting a decline of -0.5% for the Month.
It has led to questions resurfacing about when will the Bank of England raise interest rates.
It seems at present that everyday throws up another scenario as to why the BoE should and then should not raise interest rates. Today’s figures have put more pressure for a rate hike when we were thinking that it could be as far away as Q3 or Q4.
If you would like any further information on how future data releases can have an effect on your currency exchange and how you can limit the losses on currency fluctuations then please feel free to contact us via the enquiry form on the left hand side of this page.
Sterling falls on Bank of England minutes
Sterling exchange rates weakened during the mornings session in what must be seen as a knee jerk reaction to the Bank of England’s minutes. The MPC have remained somewhat cautious on the current economic situation which has left us all bemused as to when the BoE will raise interest rates.
Initially we felt that the UK would look at a rate hike in the next month or so but it is now looking more and more unlikely this will happen. I feel a rate hike may not surface until Q3 at the earliest.
The longer the BoE leave raising rates the pound will more than likely continue to struggle and gain against most majors. The one bright light that is shining for the pound is the continuous highs we are seeing against the greenback. The pound is within a cent of a 12 month high.
If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.
BOE Minutes lead to Sterling weakness against most majors – Dollar still weak
The Bank of England minutes released this morning have led to Sterling weakness against the majority of major currencies Losing nearly 1% agains the Euro at the time of writing this post.
Votes remained unchanged at 6-3 against a rate hike and once again have pushed back expectations for a rate hike, not great news at all for those buying foreign currency but great news for those due to be selling and bringing money back into Pounds.
If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.
Pound Sterling GBP – The week so far and my thoughts
With very little data out for the U.K at the start of the week the Pound has performed reasonably well against the majority of major currencies.
Against the Euro Sterling has clawed back from some the the losses seen last week giving a sigh of relief to those with pending property purchases in Spain France etc.
We remain reasonably solid against the Dollar meaning trading levels are still over and above the 1.60 barrier and the next few days are key for the strength of the Pound towards the end of this week.
Aidan will type up a more detailed overview towards the end of the day however most notable for the Pound is Bank of England minutes at 09:30am tomorrow morning, one to keep a very close eye on!!
Personally I think gambling on the markets with pending transfers is of high risk at the moment as there are just so many factors effecting exchange rates, I still feel the Pound is undervalued however until we see some movements in interest rates, or at least a fairly imminent change due then the Pound may be shackled.
If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.
Selling a property abroad and will be selling Euros in the future? Great time to lock into a forward contract!!
Are you in the middle of selling a property overseas and want to take advantage of the exchange rates now even though you do not have the funds available?
You can lock into a forward contract for a mere 10% deposit, ensuring that you take full advantage of the fantastic movements in your favour, and know exactly how much you will receive for your funds.
If this sounds of interest then do feel free to get in touch by filling in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page.
Sterling bounces back against the Euro
The pound has gained just over half a percent so far today against the Euro, after hitting 6 month lows yesterday. Sterling has rallied agasint a few currencies including the South African Rand, taking interbank Levels back above the 11 mark.
The pound is also holding ground vs. the US Dollar, as the interest rate outlook in the states remains negative for the greenback. The FED reserve are not expected to raise interest rates for some time. As this results in investors getting poor returns on the US currency, it reduces demand and therefore the price falls.
US inflation figures are released at 13:30, along with jobless claims data. Both can cause market volatility, so if you have a cable (GBPUSD) requirement keep a close eye on the market, or for more information, just fill in the form on the right.
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR STILL STRENGTHENING
The New Zealand Dollar continues to go from strength to strength since the dust has settled from the earthquake. The pound hit a high a few weeks ago of 2.2250 but has quickly weakened and reached a low of 2.0550 before pulling back into the 2.06’s yesterday.
It goes to show you how quickly exchange rates can move in a short amount of time. I had a client who secured their Kiwi Dollars they needed for their property purchase on a forward contract when the rate spiked above 2.20. They purchased 250000 NZD and compared to them trading now have saved over £7700. I spoke with them recently and they were absolutely delighted with how much they have saved by deciding to secure there funds on the forward contract.
If you feel that this contract may be suitable for your requirements please feel free to contact us on the enquiry form and an author from this site will be in touch.
The Pound is Continuing To Weaken
During this afternoons trade the pound has been very flat against most majors. Against the Euro the pound is hovering at 1.1224 and against the US Dollar we are trading at 1.6268.
Yesterday’s lower than expected inflation figures are still hampering the pound as the chances of an interest rake hike is looking more unlikely in the next month.
In fact the UK is going to have to produce some outstanding economic data to help push the pound in the right direction over the coming weeks. Today we had better than expected employment figures and the pound still weakened.
I feel their will only be light at the end of the tunnel once the Bank of England make it clear that interest rate hikes are on the horizon. This seems a good few months off at present.
If you have a requirement to buy Euros I feel that we may see levels drop close to 1.09-1.10 shortly. If you want any assistance with securing extremely favourable rates of exchanges then feel free to contact us through the enquiry form on the side of this page.
