Monthly Archives: October 2011
Japan move to devalue the Yen – Leading to Dollar strength
As has been widely anticipated the Japanese have this morning moved to weaken the JPY to help bolster their exports, this is indeed the third time this year that they have stepped in, will they actually see long term results on this occasion? Personally I don’t think so.
This has led to Dollar strength this morning as it is mainly the USD that Japan are looking to gain strength back against, much like the Swiss National bank against the Euro. The increase in demand for Dollars due to them heavilly buying Dollars is the reason behind the Dollar movements and this could well continue over the course of the week, so if you have Dollars to buy it may be prudent to purchase sooner rather than later.
I said in my post this time last week that last week may be the last time this year that you may be able to buy Dollars above 1.60 and this could actually lead to me being right (however that certainly isn’t written in stone in the current market!)
If you have a Dollar purchase or sale to make then feel free to contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to assist you not only with getting the best rate of exchange but by having me on your side to guide (not advise) you throughout the process.
Euro has a positive day against most majors – how long will it last?!
Euro strength following overnight release – confidence is back but for how long?!
by Daniel on Oct.27, 2011, under Economic Information, Euro Strength, Media Quotes, euro weakness
The Euro has had a fine day against most major currencies today after some details came out from the well followed European summit.
Essentially confidence has be installed once again but personally I feel this will be short lived as the problems are just so big when you look a little deeper into them.
Italy alone has so much to pay out next year that I have no doubt we could see things all come to a head once again without the next few months, and in my opinion these measures are purely delaying the inevitable……. At a great cost!
This could be a great opportunity for those selling Euros to buy another currency, if you do have a transaction like this to carry out then do feel free to contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to assist you with your requirement ensuring you get not only a great rate of exchange but also a high level of customer service too. I look forward to speaking with you.
Euro summit boosts the markets but hinders GBP as the AUD & NZD strengthen
As confidence has moved back towards the Euro zone stock markets around the globe have been boosted and some of the biggest gainers have been in the banking sector. Unfortunately it has been a horrid day for clients who have a requirement to sell the pound. As of 16.50 sterling exchange rates are down against:
Euro 1.35%, AUD 2.01%, NZD 1.61%, ZAR 2.52%, CHF 1.71
I yesterday predicted that if there are positive comments to come out of the summit then the pound would more than likely lose to the antipodean currencies. This has firmly been the case. Investors have more than likely moved back into riskier assets and hence producing a rally for the southern hemisphere currencies. It will surely be a very volatile few weeks leading up to Christmas for the pound. We just witnessed the Royal Bank of New Zealand keep their base rate of interest on hold and in Australia there are still strong rumours that we may see a rate cut down under.
With the current volatility that we are witnessing, if you require buying either the Aussie or the Kiwi Dollar limit orders may be the way to proceed going forward. This means that you can place a limit to buy the currency at a trading level that is not available at present in the hope that the pound gains. This morning it worked wonders for our clients that were selling a range of currencies to buy the pound. They had seen sterling strengthen of late so they placed limits in the hope that the pound would weakened. The events of today moved the market in their favor and they achieved up to 4% more on their funds than 3 weeks ago. If you would like more information on this or any other type of contract that we offer please feel free to email at bma@currencies.co.uk or call me on 00441494 787 474 and quote Pound Sterling Forecast to achieve our award winning rates.
European Summit generates less than comprehensive resolutions however minor Euro strength arises from it Strength also for Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand
Right folks, a minor update on activity – The Euro has made gains overnight following an announcement at roughly 3am although less than comprehensive it was still faster than expected and led to a little more confidence globally.
Stocks and shares rallied, the perceived ‘riskier’ currencies suddenly became a lot more sought after and currencies such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand gained back some ground accordingly, making them more expensive to buy.
There is still plenty more information to come on these matters and as such I expect a continued volatile market in the short term so be aware rates will be moving around a lot more than normal… To be kept up to date on movements should you not have the time to have one eye on rates all day every day then do feel free to contact me with your requirements and I will ensure you are aware of any movements be it in your favour or agianst you, helping you to maximise each and every transfer you carry out. I can be contacted here djw@currencies.co.uk
European Summit… Latest news
No major news from the summit of all summits so far… the latest being that Merkel has now mentioned she is looking at progress during this one and not an end result – Looks like we may need another summit on the summit!
Leaders are just arriving now for the big one…. personally I would be surprised to see major releases tonight as I feel they do not have and will not have a final answer that will be anywhere near good enough for the markets however this certainly does not guarantee that they will surprise us.
If i had to stick my neck out and make a prediction then I feel they will partially announce information this evening and follow up with the real nitty gritty in the next few days.
This will however lead to a nervous market throughout the week, and this does not only effect the Euro but all currencies worldwide.
Global uncertainty leads to investors becoming wary on risk, this in turn can mean that they seek a safe haven, the Dollar in fact has strengthened by over a cent in the past hour which seems to me that people do expect a muddled announcement later and risk aversion to be high.
No major movements from the AUD and NZD so far, I think the next 48 hours is key no matter what currency requirement you may have so make sure you are alert and ready to act fast should you need to as a lot of money can be mde and lost in situations such as this, you can use tools such as limit orders, stop losses and forward contracts.
If you would like more information on how these work or have a pending currency transaction be it buying or selling the Pound then do feel free to contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help.
Best exchange rates for your currency transfers.. Are you happy with your bank or current brokers exchange rates?
When needing to transfer large amounts of funds overseas the value of currency you receive will be determined by the exchange rate you get. Sounds obvious? Well everyday tens of thousands of people (if not significantly more) literally throw money down the drain and use a bank for their currency exchange.
Even though the bank seems the ‘best’ place to go since that is where you keep your money it is in a very high majority of cases the worst. When needing to transfer large sums of money you should speak to a currency broker. We offer commercial rateas of exchange and can beat the banks by up to 4%, sometimes more. Does 4% not sound like much? Well if you were buying £500,000 worth of Euros, a 4% difference is £20,000. Sounds like much yet?
So how do we do it? We buy and sell huge volumes of currency and we source commercial rates of exchange. We can then pass those savings on to the client. It is literally that simple. We don’t do Pet Insurance, we don’t do Mortgage Finance. We do 100% currency brokering pure and simple!
In my years of working on the markets I have never known so much volatility on exchange rates. I personally feel for anyone making large currency transfers at present because the markets are all over the place. Understanding what is driving the markets is the key to understanding what may happen and for each of my clients I, where necessary make sure they understand all the ins and outs of how to transfer funds safely, securely and at commercial rates of exchange.
If you have any currency transfers why not find out for free at 100% no obligation how we work and how we can achieve all of the above for you by filling in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page.
All of the authors on this site are senior currency brokers with years and years of experience underneath them, working for a FSA regulated company authorised as a payments institute so you can have the peace of mind that you are dealing with the best, we also pride ourselves on customer service so not only do you get a great rate of exchange but fantastic levels of service as well.
Contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to assist you.
EU summit potentially postponed. What the effects may be from the summit for sterling exchange rates!!!
As Daniel wrote what looked like the time table of events for tomorrow’s crunch talks in the EU summit, it has come to light that tomorrow’s meeting may have been postponed. There are rumours circulating stating that France, Germany & Italy cannot agree how to increase the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility)
The issues which have caused much uncertainty to global financial markets over the last few months are still dragging on the eve of one of the most important EU summits for years. If the EU cannot agree how to write off Greek debt and how to increase the EFSF the uncertainty will continue. All the markets are looking for a resolution as soon as possible and when the unconfirmed rumour hit the market sterling exchange rates strengthened to 1.1527 against the Euro to then come crashing back down to 1.1476 about 30 minutes later. This goes to show that sometimes just rumours can move exchange rates so quickly. I am sure that if the summit does go ahead then tomorrow could be one of the most volatile days that we have seen for a long time.
Everyone that i am speaking with is speculating as to what the outcome may be from the summit and what it may do for the pound. My opinion is below.
No Summit – Pound up against the Euro but down against a range of other currencies like the USD, CAD & CHF but up against the AUD, NZD & ZAR as investors may turn away from riskier currencies.
Summit to go ahead and positive comments from EU ministers - Pound down against the Euro but up against the USD, CAD & CHF potential losses against the AUD, NZD & ZAR as investors turn back to these riskier assets.
I would love to hear your opinion on how you feel events will pan out tomorrow. Please email me with your opinion at bma@currencies.co.uk or call me 00441494787474. If you have a requirement to purchase any major currency then I will be happy to explain how we can make you a saving on your exchanges over the high street banks.
Information on European meeting for tomrorrow.. Quite simply one of the most important days in the short history of the Euro
For your guidance a timetable of key events tomorrow in UK time runs as follows:
11:00: Merkel’s speech to the Bundestag
11.30: Bundestag Debate
13.00: Bundestag Vote
16.45: European leaders arrive for meeting
17.00: Working session of the European Council
18.15: Working dinner
19.00: Bilateral meetings and Euro-zone only session
21.00: Potential press conference and announcement of decisions
Throughout the day it would not surprise me to see some fairly jumpy markets so there will no doubt be some great buying and selling opportunities that arise…. Do you want to be kept up to date with the latest??
Open a free, no obligation trading facility at www.currencies.co.uk using DANIEL WRIGHT as your point of contact, I will then get in touch to discuss your requirements and also be happy to assist you in getting a great rate of exchange should you wish to book anything out.
European Events shaping our Pound Sterling Forecast
There is tremendous coverage given to the European Debt Crisis at present and quite rightly so. This week we should finally have some answers to the now old but still testing question of ‘What to do about European Debt?’. Progress on this issue really needs to be achieved before the major western economies can really start ‘growing’ and moving forward. Exposure to the European Debt crisis is the proverbial chip on the shoulder for UK, Europe and America right now. The uncertainty presented is gving everyone reason to contemplate a double dip recession at the hands of a default by Greece. As I have pointed out a weak Europe is bad for the Pound. A Eurozone in recession will not buy British goods and services and as our largest trading partner (accounting for 40% of UK trade) we want a strong Europe. In the short term it is likely any resolution and plan this week will not only be greeted by smiles across European leaders faces, but also Euro strength and therefore the end of what has been an impressive sterling rally against the Euro. If you have any GBPEUR trades assuming this resolution is achieved I would be positioning to trade sooner. The outcome could really go either way so it would be sensible to hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
Keeping with the European theme it appears there is growing discontent in the UK at British involvement in Europe. Cameron faced his biggest challenge last night with over 80 MP’s calling for a motion to be passed requiring a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. Whilst Cameron won (and even if he lost there would have been no obligaiton to pay attention to the outcome), the political consequences could particularly longer term be damaging to the Pound. As pointed out above the UK does 40% of it’s trade with Europe. This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t seek to address the nature of our relationship with Europe, but complete withdrawal, particularly at the moment as the Eurozone is undergoing such fundamental problems could be disasterous. Any businessman would not sever ties with his biggest client just because he found some of their terms unfair.
If you have any currency trades to make I would be very weary of current events. A sensible idea would be to make one of the team here at Pound Sterling Forecast aware so we can keep you posted on market movements that will affect your trade. We are currently managing the corporate and private requirements of many of our readers and want to make sure everyone out there gets the best exchange rates. The bank is not your only option and we have never had difficulty beating other currency sources. Indeed our firm have won awards from The Sunday Times and The Telegraph for our exchange rates. Our free no obligation service is aimed to make you aware of what is driving the market and ensure when you trade it is done at the very best rates. If you would like to discuss anything further please call me direct on (+44) 1494 787 458 or you can e-mail jmw@currencies.co.uk. One of the team or I will be happy to explain exactly how it all works so you can see if it is worth your while. I am sure it will be! And whilst we try to update the site as regularly as possible we couldn’t begin to cover every single event driving sterling exchange rates so recommend that you speak to us so we can ensure you are made aware of all your options in these unsettled times.
UK Current account figures at 09.30 am showed a reduction in the deficit, which is good for the Pound. At 09.45 the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King will be giving evidence to the Treasury Select Committee. This is to discuss the Quantitiative Easing decision made earlier this month. It is to an extent a formality but we could see discussion of further reasoning that may give rise to further QE. The Misery Index we have referred to previously looks at the unemployment rate plus the inflation rate. The Misery Index is now at it’s highest level for 19 years! In the aftermath of the 2007-8 crisis at least we had the hope that things would get better eventually. Well we are four years on, can we really say things are better?
If you would like to discuss any of the issues in the post or any of the issues that are right now making your currency exchange more or less expensive, please get in touch on the details above or make an obligation free enquiry on the page.
European debt meetings latest and Sterling forecast – The week ahead
The table below shows the percentage movement of exchange rates on Friday along with the extra foreign currency you could have bought if buying with £200,000 catching your rate at the right moment.
|
Currency |
% change over Friday |
Difference in £200,000 |
|
GBPEUR |
0.68% |
€1540 |
|
GBPUSD |
1.11% |
USD $3500 |
Ongoing European crisis, global uncertainty and what it means for your currency transfer
EU Finance ministers met over the weekend and will be in discussion most of the week to finally try and come up with a resolution to a problem that appears to be spiraling out of control across Europe. Greece will need a second bailout, European banks need to be recapitalized to cope with Greek debt exposure and numerous economies are desperately trying to bring in cuts to take their expenditure below GDP.
Many economies within Europe have large exposure to Greek debt and if Greece is allowed to fail, many others may slowly follow suit. In my opinion the meetings this weekend and that we have seen after the last few months are only going to bring in temporary solutions and that inevitably at some point, finance ministers will have to throw in the towel and stop throwing money into the Greek black hole.
No headline deal has been announced however so far on Saturday ministers announced that €110 Billion of new capital must be raised by European banks to cover their loans to indebted nations, as the EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund) quite honestly has too much to deal with trying to prop up Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal – To be kept up to date with the very latest releases and market movements get in touch by filling in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page and let us be the eyes and ears on the market for you.
If you have a requirement to buy or sell Euros this week then you should ensure you are protected against adverse market movements by means of a stop loss order. An announcement can be made at any time and we will be sure to be receiving constant updates over the first few days of the week leading to a volatile time for the Euro.
Personally I feel there may be a few spikes for Sterling against the Euro this week, however like in the past once the meeting has ended and a new apparent fantastic approach to resolving the problems has been announced the Euro may strengthen considerably, putting us back down to 1.13 by the end of the week. If you get the chance to buy when the mid-market level is above that, then in my opinion I would be highly tempted. Contact us today by filling in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page should you be worried about what the week may bring and one of our experienced traders will be happy to explain the various options available to you.
U.S credit rating downgrade again?
An interesting report I read over the weekend suggests that the U.S are in for another credit rating downgrade before the end of the year, according to the Bank of America. Ratings agencies had previously said that if congress did not have credible solutions and policies in place regarding debt problems in the states then this is something they would have to look at, and a downgrade could happen as soon as November.
Although you may think this would weaken the Dollar, the downgrade we saw for the States last time led to Dollar strength, probably as it heightened global uncertainty and in risk-averse times the Dollar is still one of the frontrunners as a safe haven for investors to place their funds into. One other note of caution is the saying on the market that when the U.S sneezes the U.K catches a cold, so how much longer will we indeed hold on to our top rating and what effect will that have on the Pound…. Surely a negative one?
Sterling forecast – the week ahead
Without a doubt the most important release on the financial markets this week will be the result of the current European summit, this will affect all currencies worldwide as it will change attitude to risk and potentially paint the picture as to where the world economy will be in the lead up to Christmas. Personally I feel the result will lead to immediate Euro strength and the antipodean currencies (AUD,NZD,ZAR) will also gain against the Pound as for the time being as investors will still be willing to get invest in the riskier currencies, increasing demand and making them stronger.
Cable (GBP-USD) is expected to plummet by top foreign exchange information site FX Street, however I feel that this week we could temporarily break the 1.60 barrier for the final time this year and we see key Gross Domestic Product figures out for the States on Wednesday at 13:30pm.
There are numerous interest rate decisions throughout the week with Canada, New Zealand and Japan all expected to keep rates on hold, any changes to expectations may lead to high volatility, be aware too that the markets are on alert for Japan to move to devalue the Yen and the interest decision overnight on Tuesday may be the ideal time for them to do so.
In short, an extremely volatile week ahead beckons for all major currencies and those in a position to act fast will benefit from opportunities that may arise, keep in close contact with your account manager and if you know you have an imminent requirement then email me djw@currencies.co.uk and we will be more than happy to assist you.
If you have any questions or queries regarding anything in this report then please do feel free to email me djw@currencies.co.ukor fill in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page..
