Monthly Archives: January 2012
Pound climbing against the Dollar – Dropping against the Australian Dollar, Thai Baht, South African Rand and the ‘riskier currencies’ as investors start to take a punt again…. Will this last in the current economic climate?
The Pound is starting to climb back against the Dollar which suggests that investors are getting a little confident again but how long will this last?
With a major announcement regarding Greek debt imminent we could see absolutle yanything happen this week, however the longer the European crisis is kept away from being major headline news, the more these ‘riskier’ currencies may continue to climbe against the Pound. If you are looking to Buy South African Rand or Australian Dollars then further European problems should bring you the opportunity you have been waiting for, and in my opinion Europe is a ticking timebomb and merely keeps getting shoved under the carpet until it rears its ugly head again and never has been fully dealt with (and probably won’t be for years).
With this in mind, don’t get too greedy as I cannot see AUD rates suddenly flying up by tens of cents so if a spike does occur (depending on the reasons behind it) then be prepared to lock into a rate.
The GBP-USD rate is indeed now creeping up too, in times of trouble globally the Dollar tends to benefit, in calmer tides investors tend to pull funds back out of the Dollar and are more willing to take a risk again.
The best position to be in if you have a pending currency transfer to carry out is to have someone in the know being your eyes and ears on the market. I can assist you either by highlighting opportunites with a phone call or by placing a limit order in the market for you, a limit order is where you decide on a rate you would like to achieve and should it be achievable even for a matter of seconds it is bought out automatically for you, eliminating the risk of you missing out on a spike overnight. A limit order is completely free and can be cancelled or ammended at any point providing the order has not already been filled.
Email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk or set up a free, no obligation trading facility by clicking here and using my name (Daniel Wright) as your point of contact.
I shall then give you a call and explain how to proceed.
Sterling rate movements yesterday Pound forecast going forward against Dollar, Euro, New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar
Halfway to recession?
Yesterday morning saw the release of U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures for the fourth quarter of 2011 released and unfortunately they did not make great reading for the U.K. Gross Domestic Product figuresshow how much an economy grew or contracted in that particular period and the prediction was for the U.K economy to have shrunk by 0.1%
The figure actually came out at -0.2% which doesn’t sound a lot but it does however mean we are indeed closer to a recession than many had first thought.
An economy is officially in a recession when it has two consecutive quarters of negative growth and with the U.K ending the year with one there is every chance now we could start the year with our second and the Pound may drop accordingly.
We will not find out the results for Q1 2012 until April – but if indications are there that this may be negative then Sterling exchange rates may find the next few months very tough – So far in the U.K we have managed to dodge any serious winter conditions, such as the weather we saw this time last year however should it come back and the economy take a hit accordingly then this may be enough to tip the balance.
Of course there are various problems globally that will no doubt hold back many other major currencies, The Euro Zone is also expected to drop back into recession territory as a whole at points this year so there will no doubt be various buying and selling opportunities along the way. Call us today on 0044 1494 725353 should you have an upcoming requirement and let us be that extra pair of eyes and ears on the market for you.
BOE Minutes – How will further QE affect the Pound?
The Bank of England minutes were also released yesterday and the results of which are probably why the Pound did not take a nosedive yesterday. All nine members of the BOE voted in favour of interest rates staying on hold and also, which is key the (QE) stimulus plan to be left on hold for the time being. It looks like the market had slightly priced in further QE in the near term and the fact that not one member was in favour right now should delay further stimulus for another month or two.
When more money is pumped into the economy it generally does weaken the Pound, and regular readers will be aware the mere mention of this does lead to weakness for the Pound, so be aware this will be a hot topic in the coming months.
Federal Reserve minutes and Dollar Exchange rates
Last night the Federal Reserve released their minutes from the first interest rate decision of the year in the U.S. They also tend to comment on economic conditions and how they plan to tackle their economic problems going forward.
In a Statement the Fed state that they expect interest rates to remain extremely low until late 2014 which did weaken the Dollar slightly shortly after the release. Interest rate hikes generally make a currency more attractive to investors and the fact they are planning to keep this low for quite some time may put investors off of putting their money into the USD.
I personally still expect the Dollar to perform well this year due to the problems globally, if you have Dollars to purchase this could be a great opportunity for you as it wouldn’t surprise me to see the GBP-USD rates below 1.50 in the next six weeks.
However, in a press conference later on last night some slightly positive news for Dollar buyers was the fact that Ben Bernanke had stated that the Fed would still be prepared to inject financial stimulus in the near term, which has opened up the door for QE3 in the U.S. This has been expected for some time though so I do not expect this to weigh too heavily on the Dollar.
KEY DATA WATCH: U.S GDP Data Tomorrow at 13:30pm – This data could lead to a volatile end to the week as it is a key indicator as to how the U.S economy is performing. Expectations are for a reasonable jump in the right direction which could round off the week on a high for the Dollar.
RBNZ Interest Rate decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates on hold last night, giving the NZD a little more strength overnight. NZD rates are (like the AUD) closing in on the lowest we have seen in years and there is no guarantee they will be shooting back up again soon, with interest rates staying high and economic data fairly solid you may have quite a wait on your hands if you are awaiting a large movement back.
Data that may affect the Pound Today
Today is extremely quiet on the data front for the Pound and most majors, however do be aware that at any point we could hear news on the Greek debt talks. If so called ‘positive’ news comes from the talks then going on previous movements we could see some Euro strength pushing the Pound back below 1.19 and back out of arms reach of 1.20.
To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.
Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes….
There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.
I look forward to speaking with you.
U.K GDP Data actually worse than expected – U.K Halfway to recession yet the Pound gains…
Ok, I called that data may be negative yet once again the markets have surprised us and the Pound has gained this morning!
I know, it is kind of crazy but it is mainly down to the fact that further QE doesn’t look as close as had been expected – This has been an extremely negative subject for the Pound over the past few years and the fact it is a little further away again has been seen as a positive for the Pound, eroding the poor growth worries (for the time being).
That’s my take on it so far…
If you have an upcoming currency transfer to make and want to achieve the very best exchange rates along with an extremely high level of personal service, contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I shall be happy to assist you.
The Pound Could have a hard morning this morning – Bank of England minutes, GDP data and mortgage approvals all at 09:30am!
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound take a bit of a hit today as it sees three key data releases at once this morning.
Firstly, BOE minutes are released and with growing speculation and calls for further Quantitative Easing in the U.K (generally seen as negative for the Pound) the minutes will show how many members of the BOE voted in favour of (or against) more QE – An increase to the amount of positive vtes compared to last time will signal we are closer to seeing more QE and with the markets moving on rumour as well as fact this could dent the Pound.
On top of this, following numerous growth forecast downgrades last year we have GDP figures for the fourth quarter of last year, they are actually predicted to show a contraction which actually might work in the Pounds favour as if we come out with no growth or positive growth it could counter act the QE as it would be seen as much more positive than expectations, however if we do see negative growth then we are officially half way to a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth) and may drop rapidly today.
Mortgage approvals are the third of the trio today, in all honesty I think these may be overshadowed by the other two releases, all in all my personal opinion if this could be a hard morning for the Pound overall.
If you have an upcoming transfer to make, join the hundreds of people that have contact me directly through this site and found that I have got them a much better price than their current bank or broker…. Feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a contact number and what you are looking to do and I shall be happy to get in touch.
What is this week looking like for the Pound?
A rocky start to the year has seen sterling reach an all time low against the Aussie dollar, an 18 month low against the US dollar whilst touching a 16 month high against the Euro. So what can we expect this week? Will these levels remain?
Despite retails sales performing above expectations and this morning’s Public Sector New Borrowing figures showing a fall in government borrowing, there are still many worrying signs for the UK and hence the pound. Key is Unemployment and Growth. We have rising Unemployment and it is not expected to start falling anytime soon. The country needs growth to support the number of people out of work and this is looking to be meagre at best.
Tomorrows UK GDP figures will be key for anyone considering buying or selling the pound at the moment. We will also have the Bank of England Minutes from this months earlier meeting. I would be very worried about a sterling fall in early morning trading particularly if GDP numbers are bad and more members voted for QE. Adam Posen, policymaker at the Bank of England said yesterday it was looking like ‘probably’ the UK will need further QE.
This does not bode well for anyone selling the pound hoping for further gains in the short term. Even though Public Sector Net Borrowing fell this morning, the path to recovery in the UK is still unclear. If you are looking to purchase the pound you are looking at some very attractive rates at present which could improve further.
If you have a transfer to make and want to get not only the very best rate but also expert analysis and forecasting specific to your requirements why not speak to us? This blog has helped thousands of people to save thousands of pounds. We always go that extra mile to win business for people who come to us this way so if you would like to learn more please either contact me direct jmw@currencies.co.uk or use the contact form. You could even find out more by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you should always shop around to get the best deal!
I look forward to hearing from you.
What Is Likely To Affect Currency Rates next week? Pound forecast
The Dollar has weakened against the pound by a couple of cents whilst the Euro has fought
back slightly from a 16 month low against the pound over a similar
period.
If you are buying Euros or buying Dollars then next Wednesday is
in my view likely to be key. The Dollar tends to strengthen during times
of uncertainty and the Euro zone crisis has certainly provided a lot of this
whilst at the same time weakening the Euro.
With slightly better received bond auctions in Europe in the last few days, investors are showing signs of
cautious optimism hence the Dollar weakness and Euro strength (albeit only a
minor move compared to recent levels).
During this period, we have seen inflation in the UK coming down, and retail figures up
(good news for the pound) but on the other hand unemployment is rising (very
bad news for the pound). In my view next Wednesday is going to be key as
we see the release of the Bank of England Minutes and UK Q3 GDP figures in the
morning, and later that evening we have the US Federal Reserve Decision.
If UK growth is very weak or negative then it will likely start alarm bells
ringing for the prospect of a “double dip” recession- if this is the case if
you are buying Euros I would be tempted to jump straight away and cut my losses
within a few cents of a 16 month high against the single currency.
Likewise, should the Minutes point towards further Quantitative Easing in the
UK then again I would expect a reasonable degree of sterling weakness meaning
your pound would buy you less. If this is the case, then the only thing
likely to avert sterling against the Euro in the short term would be another
flare up of the debt crisis in Europe- this is certainly possible but do
remember the more damage done in Europe, and the longer the crisis runs, then
the greater the likelihood of UK trade with Europe slackening (another possible
cause of recession in the UK!)
On the US side of things Wednesday night may give us a few more clues about whether the
slightly more optimistic figures coming from the US of late is the start of a
wider recovery, or will Bernanke raise the case for more QE in the US as
well? Any slackening of the Euro crisis is likely to help Dollar buyers,
as is the suggestion of a QE3 in the US. In my view the USD is likely to
weaken a touch but sterling weakness may counteract any serious gain.
As such Wednesday would seem to be the perfect day to look at stop loss and limit
orders to protect your position but try and maximize any gains- e-mail Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk with a brief
explanation of what you need to trade eg amounts, currencies, buying or selling
(and potentially a contact number), and quote PSF as the subject header. I would be happy to talk you through what
we can do for you and some reasonable options on how to approach your trade.
U.K Retail Sales due out tomorrow at 09:30am – This could swing either way but I feel it could give the Pound a lift
After a reasonably quiet day on the markets tomorrow could bring much of the same, however first thing at 09:30am we do have the release of U.K Retail Sales for the month of December.
For those of us unlucky enough to be stuck in the U.K last December you may remember just how dire it was with all the snow, and the high street took a bit hit over what should have been a booming time for many retailers.
This year, I have seen reports that business was booming, this may lead to a reasonable figure in the morning and a short term spike for the Pound.
Of course many analysts will already be expecting a good figure so anything less than good may do quite the opposite but this is certainly one to keep a keen eye on.
If you have an upcoming transfer to make, join the hundreds of people that have contact me directly through this site and found that I have got them a much better price than their current bank or broker…. Feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a contact number and what you are looking to do and I shall be happy to get in touch.
Aussie Dollar at a 27 year high against sterling. If you are selling AUD to buy GBP these are excellent levels but make sure you still get the best rate of exchange.
This morning the Australian Dollar has strengthened to a 27 year high against the sterling exchange rates. I have been speaking with many of my clients who have been looking at buying and selling Aussie Dollars recently. The ones who require selling them will be extremely pleased with the current demise of sterling, falling around 10 cents in the last 6 weeks. If the Aussie Dollar rate continues to go from strength to strength like it has for the last 2 years against the pound then the next 6 months could be frightening for clients looking at emigrating to Australia or anywhere in the Southern hemisphere. The New Zealand Dollar has also strengthened by nearly 15 cents recently.
Nothing is certain in the currency markets and if you need to sell AUD or NZD to buy GBP then now may be a fantastic time with the current highs. Email me at bma@currencies.co.uk so we can discuss your individual requirements and try to work out how we can maximise your exchange.
To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.
Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly bma@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.
I look forward to speaking with you.
If you need to buy or sell sterling exchange rates the next 3 weeks could be your window of opportunity before the next Bank of England meeting in February
Good morning readers,
There was some great news for UK consumers yesterday with inflation figures falling sharply in December with the annual CPI rate dropping to 4.2% from 4.8% in November.
The bad news for all our readers and anyone who requires selling the pound to buy any other major currency is that with inflation falling it gives the Bank of England more manoeuvre to do more QE. Every time that QE has been introduced to the UK economy the pound has weakened between 2 & 5% over the coming days. The Bank of England have always stated that inflation will fall back towards its target level and the fall has shown that there decision to keep interest rates at an all-time low and introduce monetary easing in QE was the right decision in regards to inflation.
We are now fast approaching February when most analysts think the Bank will increase asset purchases. On the back of the fall in inflation the pound weakened further against most currencies and even fell against the Euro where we have been so strong recently. If I was going to stick my head out on the line I would highly recommend trading well before the first week of February when the next interest rate and QE decision is made.
I personally feel that if QE does get re implemented the pound may weaken to a target level of 1.48 against the USD and continue its decline against the Canadian, Aussie & kiwi Dollar. In fact I cannot at this point see a great deal of fortune for sterling against any other major apart from possibly the Euro. Even GBP/EUR will have its peaks and troughs so make the timing of your exchange right.
This morning sterling exchange rates have continued its decline against most majors. Looking here at all the charts out of the 16 most traded global currencies the only one that sterling is up against is the Euro by a small 0.33%If you are in a position to buy sterling now and the next 3 weeks may be a fantastic time to maximise your conversion. email me at bma@currencies.co.uk if you need to do this and I will make sure that you make a significant saving over the high street banks anywhere in the world.
Sterling could get hit further this morning as we see the latest unemployment figures which will probably not make pretty reading. Please feel free to contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk if you have a requirement to buy or sell any major currency and we will do our best to talk you through the options that are available to you to maximise your rate of exchange.
To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.
Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly bma@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.
I look forward to speaking with you.
Australian Dollar Forecast – Chinese GDP Data Released Overnight Leads to AUD Strength
Good morning readers, overnight we saw the Chinese GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data come out much better than expected, with China being a major factor to the continuing positive charge from the Australian Dollar this has pushed the AUD to new highs.
Obviously the constant force the AUD is gaining strength by must be a cause for concern if you are looking to emigrate to Australia at some point in the near future…. If you are worried about exchange rates and want to ensure you get the very best rate of exchange and a second pair of eyes and ears on the market to help you along the way then contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with the subject title PSF and I shall be more than happy to assist you.
