Daily Archives: January 25, 2012
Ok, I called that data may be negative yet once again the markets have surprised us and the Pound has gained this morning!
I know, it is kind of crazy but it is mainly down to the fact that further QE doesn’t look as close as had been expected – This has been an extremely negative subject for the Pound over the past few years and the fact it is a little further away again has been seen as a positive for the Pound, eroding the poor growth worries (for the time being).
That’s my take on it so far…
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The Pound Could have a hard morning this morning – Bank of England minutes, GDP data and mortgage approvals all at 09:30am!
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound take a bit of a hit today as it sees three key data releases at once this morning.
Firstly, BOE minutes are released and with growing speculation and calls for further Quantitative Easing in the U.K (generally seen as negative for the Pound) the minutes will show how many members of the BOE voted in favour of (or against) more QE – An increase to the amount of positive vtes compared to last time will signal we are closer to seeing more QE and with the markets moving on rumour as well as fact this could dent the Pound.
On top of this, following numerous growth forecast downgrades last year we have GDP figures for the fourth quarter of last year, they are actually predicted to show a contraction which actually might work in the Pounds favour as if we come out with no growth or positive growth it could counter act the QE as it would be seen as much more positive than expectations, however if we do see negative growth then we are officially half way to a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth) and may drop rapidly today.
Mortgage approvals are the third of the trio today, in all honesty I think these may be overshadowed by the other two releases, all in all my personal opinion if this could be a hard morning for the Pound overall.
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