Pound Sterling Forecast

Good Morning readers,

Sterling has so far this month outperformed many of its major currency pairs hitting a 14 month high on a trade weighted basis while reaching a 3 month high against the Euro and very recently a 5 month high against the USD. Sterling has also strengthened to recent highs against the Aussie & Kiwi Dollar.

So why is sterling looking so resilient and what is around the corner for the great British pound?

The likelihood is that the pound has outperformed other currencies due to the poor performance of many other economies. The Euro is constantly being hit by the regions on going debt crisis. The US has recently been hit by poorer employment figures in the form of their nonfarm payroll which was out last Friday. Australia and New Zealand has seen their currencies weaken due to China’s economic growth slowdown.

The UK economy witnessed last week some positive data in the form of manufacturing, construction and the services sector. All data came out better than expected which boosted sterling but if you have a currency transfer to make selling the pound you must be wary as their is still a big threat hanging over the UK economy of a double dip recession due to weak growth, the risk of further QE by the Bank of England and the risk of a credit downgrade by one of the credit rating agencies.

I cannot stress more that with the current highs against a range of currencies I would not be surprised to see the pound weaken by a few per cent against a range of currencies. Over the last 4 years every time that the pound has spiked it has then gone on to lose a few cents very quickly. It seems that the pound is hitting a resistance barrier against the Euro at 1.2150, 1.60 against  the USD and 1.55 against the AUD. If you are worried about any of the above email me at bma@currencies.co.uk and we can discuss your currency requirement in detail.

With more bad news to come out of Europe I feel that the pound will linger above 1.20 against the Euro for the foreseeable future. Due to the UK’s close ties with Europe though against a host of other currencies I can see sterling really struggle to push on. For this reason I feel the pound will weaken against the USD with a target level of 1.56 and we could see a drop back down to 1.50/1.52 against the Aussie Dollar.

So if you need to Sell Euros I would start to get in the mind-set that you will more than likely struggle to sell Euros below 1.20. If you need to buy any major currency please do contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk and we can look at the currency pair that you are dealing with. I will give you our expert opinion which may help you decide when is the best time to convert your funds. We offer much better rates of exchange than the high street banks. If you are using a broker at present challenge me to achieve a better rate than them to help make you the best saving on your currency transfer.