Daily Archives: April 24, 2012

Tomorrow’s UK GDP Figures will Determine if Sterling can Continue its Rise Against the Single Currency

April 24, 2012   Economic data, Euro, Predictions, Sterling strength, Sterling weakness

The release of tomorrows UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures, represents arguably the most important set of data to be released in the UK so far this year. The prediction is for 0.1% growth but anything less will mean the country has officially slipped back into recession and this will surely have a detrimental effect on GBP and its ability to continue is current rise against the euro. Personally I feel the markets have already factored in the UK just (this being the operative word) avoiding another quarter of negative growth (if a country has two successive negative quarters of economic growth then it is officially in recession) and this is another reason we are witnessing some of the best buying opportunities of the past two years.

The single currency has been hit hard over the past weeks by a continuing stream of negative media reports and a Spanish economy that is weighing heavily on the region. With Portugal, Ireland and Holland still showing signs of economic contraction and Greece struggling to meet is loan repayment deadlines, I do fear for the short-term stability of the euro. Whilst only a few weeks ago the idea of 1.25 GBP/EUR had most analysts scoffing, those same analysts may now be eating their words.

However, for all those holding on for these sort of trading levels, be aware that any long-term break up or region wide recession in Europe would have a serious and most likely negative on sterling and the UK economy. Europe remain our largest trading partner and its inability to import our goods and services would inhibit our economy’s growth prospects.

Tuesday initially saw further gains for GBP as it rose to 1.2277 against the euro but at time of writing the single currency had regained some ground and levels were hovering around the 1.2020 mark.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement or have any queries regarding the current market trends then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or on 01494 787 478.

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Last Chance Saloon before UK GDP figures tomorrow… What will happen to the Pound ahead of the most important Sterling data release this year?

April 24, 2012   AUD, CAD, Economic data, Euro, NZD, Sterling weakness

Here at PSF we have been highlighting one date for everyones diary buying or selling the pound. And that is the 25th April, tomorrow’s UK GDP figures. Since the start of the year when we found out that in the last quarter of 2011, the UK economy contracted, investors and traders have been waiting with interest the 25th April as it will determine whether or not the UK is in recession.

A recession is technically two quarters of negative growth. With tomorrow’s estimate for Q1 of 2012 estimated at 0.1%, there is very little room for error. If the figures are 0.1% out in either direction we are surely to see movement on the pound. I would expect a negative figure to lead to sterling losses as in my opinion the pound is trading strongly on an assumption the figures will be positive or as expected. Strong Retail Sales for March, improved PMI surveys and other data have all seem to indicate the UK will have narrowly avoided recession.

This decision could really go either way and is in my opinion the most important piece of data to affect the pound this year. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound soon, it is critical to be aware of the possible outcome and affects on the currency. Even though the decision is tomorrow, you could be talking to us in minutes by calling 01494 787 478 or emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Dealing with us is totally free and at no obligation. We can quickly explain all of your options so that you can then make an informed decision abvout what you want to do.

The pound is touching fresh highs against the CAD, the Aussie, the Kiwi, the Euro, the Dollar and the Rand. The data coming out worse than expected could really pull the rug from under the pound’s feet. If you are one of the tens of thousands of readers of our blogs and are interested to learn more about all of your options ahead of this event, please feel free to call us on 01494 787 478  or email me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

We have saved thousands of people thousands of pounds because we can not only offer information to assist with the actual timing of your exchange, but also provide an extremely sharp commercial rate of exchange. As specialist currency brokers we have years of experience dealing with a variety of private clients and businesses who need to move money internationally. We will always go that extra mile to win business for anyone who contacts us via this site, so why not find out for free if you could be getting a better deal? We actively undercut the banks and because we work for an independent broker choose where we buy from, meaning we can undercut other brokers too. Why not make a free quote request to me directly?

Important data Today

This morning we have Public Sector Net Borrowing at 09.30 which is expected to show government borrowing increased in March. Aside from some US housing data out at 13.30 the real news on the markets will be more fallout in Europe. To be kept up to date with how all of these important events pan out please feel free to get in touch on 01494 787 478  or email me directly jmw@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you and assisting you with the best deal

Jonathan

 

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