Monthly Archives: June 2016

Huge Pound Sterling Euro movements since the Brexit vote (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates fell last Friday by as much as 10 cents as the public chose to vote to leave the European Union.

Last Thursday night the odds were 1-10 on to Remain so it looked an almost certainty that the status quo would continue.

However, the surprise result caused huge movements on GBPEUR & GBPUSD rates.

The foreign exchange markets appear to have settled down over the last 2 days but Bank of England governor Mark Carney has just spoken this afternoon and suggested that the uncertainty of the Brexit could weigh on the economy.

Carney has also said that the ‘Brexit decision is a major regime shift’ and the British economy will probably need more stimulus.

This news has caused Sterling to fall below 1.20 against the Euro and back into the 1.32 levels vs the US Dollar.

This has again caused a loss of investor confidence in Sterling and just when we thought the bad news was over this has again made things worse for Pound Sterling exchange rates.

This is great news for anyone looking to sell currency to buy Sterling but like with the recovery of the FTSE this week we could see Sterling recover quite quickly as at the moment one of the most obvious issues hasn’t been pointed out.

The real issue for me is that the Brexit vote does not just cause problems for the UK and therefore Sterling but it could also start to have a contagion effect in Europe as if others countries look at holding a referendum this could cause problems on the continent and therefore arguably the Euro could suffer in time to come.

Having worked in the industry for 13 years this period is more volatile than the credit crunch for Sterling Euro exchange rates so it is important to be aware and be ready to act quickly if the markets move in your favour.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

GBPEUR rates – 1 week from the BREXIT vote

Sterling exchange rates have started to climb once more but is this a short term lift up?

With all the talk and debates plus the political fall out and economic concerns Sterling rates have been falling over the last week, but one week on the FTSE is actually higher than it was before the LEAVE result. Currency markets have unfortunately not shown the same gains but are higher than the bottom levels seen at the beginning of the week. GBPEUR levels are now over 1.21 a cent higher than yesterday morning when there was a real threat of markets falling under 1.20.

The BREXIT doom and gloom has been strong out there but please remember that these rates are actually a lot higher than many had expected. Some banks suggest parity on a leave which is a distant from where market levels sit this morning.  In fact the average rate seen over the last decade is only 4 cents higher than where we stand now, not bad considering the talk of the UK falling apart and the EU concept under stress.

The British divide

As the ramifications of the LEAVE result starts to take shape it seems clear that some parts of the UK are wanting to remain as part of the EU. Northern Ireland, Scotland and Gibraltar have already made their claim.; All had rather large REMAIN results from the vote only 1 week ago so perhaps this is no surprise.  If this story develops watch out for significant fluctuations on the currency market as the Pound takes a dive. I can certainty see these questions lasting a while as the uncertainty remains. Make sure to contact us here if you would like more information, with over 17 years’ service we have helped clients through many major events like this. In each occasion helping them save money, simply put if that was not the case we would not be in business. Contact myself STEVE EAKINS at hse@currencies.co.uk if you would like more information.

Why are rates so high?

Well the concerns stand around contagion and the risk of further right wing parties across Europe taking hold. Plus the fact that UK is the third largest contributor to the EU raise concerns about what the EU could look like without the UK being part of it.  These questions are rather large and the implications on the currency market could equally be as big.  Answers to these questions however are probably at least 6 months away as the UK decide political leadership, then issue the Article 50 which starts the ball rolling on the negotiations of the leave and therefore what Europe will look like thereafter.

Lots of questions remain about what the future will hold but it is incredibly unlikely that these will be answered within the next 3 months.  Therefore rates are expected to remain under threat with GBPEUR rates especially volatile. If you are buying a house in Europe a boat or indeed emigrating these events are unlikely to impact the rate of exchange you achieve if moving within the next three months.

If you would like more information please feel free to contact myself STEVE EAKINS – email me at hse@currencies.co.uk

 

How far can the pound fall?

The pound has actually made some very small gains today but the outlook remains grim in my opinion. Despite the markets bouncing off the bottom today I do not think there is going to be a huge amount to be cheerful about and the rally of this morning quickly halted. The UK has no Prime Minister, the EU say there will be no special deal for the UK and business confidence and investment is down. There is a harsh choice for the next PM will it be abandoning free movement of people or retaining access to the single markets. According to the EU we cannot have both! If you are considering a currency exchange (£10,000 over only bank to bank exchanges please) please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to keep up with the latest news on how the pound is performing.

How much lower will GBPUSD drop?

The problem on this pair is the US Election is not far away which is bound to lead to uncertainty on the exchange rate. The prospect of a Trump Presidency has in my mind not been properly factored into the dollar. The Brexit vote also makes a US Interest rate hike less likely which I feel is not being reflected on the pair. I expect this rate to trade between 1.30 – 1.40 until August before moving back to 1.40-1.50 August to September. From there the picture is less clear but a move back above 1.50 could not be ruled out. If you have any USD transfers to consider the USD is almost at a 30 year high against the pound. To understand the latest movements please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPEUR hit 1.25?

For Euro buyers this is the question I am being asked most. Well I think Greek concerns and worries may resurface in the next few months and a top of 1.25 is possible, the negative impact of Brexit is also hurting the Euro. But I think sterling will be the main loser and would call lows in the 1.10-1.15 range up to September. From there much will depend on how Brexit negotiations but I think the pound will remain weak until we have certainty. If you have any Euro transfers on amounts above £10,000 (eg property sale of business transfer) please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information on securing the best GBPEUR and EURGBP exchange rates.

Brexit may well not prove to be too bad in the long run but it is clear to me the impact on sterling exchange rates still has much further to run, we still know very little about what to expect next. Any signs of an interest rate cut or further Quantitative Easing could easily send the pound lower and I would be most worried about this prospect towards the end of this year or early next.

Sterling is at multi year lows against GBPAUD, GBPCAD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF and GBPZAR..  Make sure you don’t miss out..

  This aware winning blog has enabled tens of thousands of people globally to save money on their currency exchanges through helpful, friendly knowledgeable information from experienced currency brokers. As one of the Chief contributors here I would be delighted to hear from any of you wish for information at this important historic time for the pounds. An email will only take you a minute and the savings on offer could be thousands, what have you to lose. If you have a currency exchange to consider and would like to learn the latest exchange rate forecast please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

The Brexit Fallout (Daniel Charles Johnson)

The impact of Brexit is clearly evident on the currency market. Sterling is it the lowest levels since ’85 against the Dollar and the Euro is battering at the 1.20 resistance barrier. The resignation of David Cameron also does not bode well. In times of political uncertainty the currency in question usually weakens. The next Prime minister is due to be elected on 2nd September and whoever is voted in will have the task of bringing the UK’s economy back to a position of stability. I feel Sterling could be in for a rough time short term and I doubt to see many positive data releases over the coming weeks to assist in a rally for the Pound. I think once the Bank of England have made there stance clear, a Prime minister  is in place and the markets have settled the Pound will gain strength.

If you are currently buying Sterling you are in an extremely favorable position. With the majority of major currencies at record highs against the Pound. Although there could be further falls for Sterling it is important to keep in mind the factors that could affect the value of the currency  you are selling. For example the Euro is in trouble, Greece have stated they will be unable to make there next payment to the International Monetary Fund, France are threatening a referendum of their own and Draghi is still pumping in €80bn a month in an attempt to stimulate growth. If you are selling Euros I would not procrastinate.

Looking at USD, an election looms and as mentioned earlier political uncertainty, generally  causes the currency in question to weaken. The Head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen had indicated at the start of the year there would be several rate hikes in the US this year, none of which has materialised.

Australia is currently going through a general election which is currently very close. So we could see a fall in AUD value. China whom Australia rely on heavily for their exports are also not looking stable. There has been recent stock market crashes, where circuit breakers have been used to cease trading to stop panic selling and the rumors of shadow banking and distorted data figures will not go away.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you let me know the currency pair you will be trading, volume and time scale I will provide an individual trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country which puts me in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. Feel free to contact me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

What will happen to the Pound now the referendum is over? (Daniel Wright)

Well, we have had quite a few days here on the trading floor and I can honestly say I have never been so busy.

Many people are asking me now just where do I see Sterling exchange rates heading next and of course the exact answer is that it is impossible to call but let’s look at what may happen in the coming weeks.

I personally feel that once the dust has settled on the result of the referendum we have a little room for some Sterling recovery. We are already seeing share prices start to creep back up a little and the Pound’s dramatic fall has already seeming stopped as we have seen gains against most major currencies during trading today.

We do have plenty of economic and political uncertainty which will hold the Pound back, but people need to realise that as we stand today there is not a huge amount that has changed, just a lot of doom and gloom in the newspapers and speculation as to what might happen.

Everyone now needs to pull together and try to make the best of this situation and to try and avoid letting our heads get down and the economy following suit and should that happen I would expect Sterling to start to gather pace again and I would not be surprised to see the Pound gain back most of the value recently lost.

A lot of attention may now also be placed onto the Euro, with one economy leaving the EU others may also look to follow suit which may really pressurise the Euro and lead to it weakening off accordingly, making it cheaper to buy.

There is so much out there for the market to feed off of that it is extremely key to ensure if you have any currency exchange to carry out that you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side.

I can help you with any exchange you have personally, I have worked on the currency markets for years and the company I work for assists clients in currency exchanges with award winning rates of exchange and customer service.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch to discuss the various options available to you in the coming weeks and months.

 

 

So what exactly happens next for the UK and the pound?

Sterling is at some exceptionally low levels and is likely to weaken further in the coming days and weeks but until we get concrete news on the new Tory leader and the process of leaving the EU is physically triggered the rates might not have any days similar to last Friday. It is the best time in two years to sell euros for pounds and the best time in 30 years to sell dollars for pounds.

Whilst the pound is sure to remain on the back foot as ripples spread through financial markets, the immediate news is that well there isn’t a great deal to say. The key point of the UK’s withdrawal is the triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which sets out a two year window within which the UK would leave the EU. By resigning David Cameron has sidestepped invoking this Article and it is now down to probably the next Tory leader. With the leadership contest not due until October there is now a window within which we will not know exactly when Article 50 will be invoked. If you have a currency transfer to consider the pound is bound to struggle but until Article 50 is triggered the physical process of leaving the EU is not going to happen. EU leaders are already lining up to encourage this all to happen very quickly but it is highly unlikely this will happen before October. And even then once a new Tory leader is voted in, it might be that they then decide to call a General Election.

What kind of deal will the UK get?

The UK’s deal has to target two key points. One the issue of immigration and two access to the free market. Other countries outside the EU which have deals allowing access to the Single Market require them to accept the free movement of people principles which the UK is unlikely to agree to since this was a central point of the Leave campaign.

In short nothing is going to happen quickly but there is likely to be plenty of uncertainty as investors scramble to make sense of what is around the corner. The Bank of England might seek to cut interest rates or look at more QE to help boost the economy, this is all much further down the line but investors always look to the future.

If you have a transfer to consider keeping up to date with the market is key to make an informed decision. Please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more about what the future holds and how to maximise your transfer.

 

British politics in turmoil, due to ‘Brexit’ (Dayle Littlejohn)

Throughout Friday the pound plummeted against all of the major currencies due to the UK publics decision to the leave the European Union.

UK Prime Minister and Conservative leader David Cameron announced he would be standing down and wanted his predecessor to take over by October. Many believe former Mayor of London Boris Johnson could take over however many of the Conservative MPs feel that Boris betrayed David Cameron for his own political benefit.

This morning half of the Labour MPs have announced they could resign in a bid to remove Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Furthermore, this weekend Hilary Benn announced he had ‘lost confidence’ in Corbyn’s leadership and consequently was sacked.

At the moment it seems like the Conservative party and Labour party are clearly divided which in turn will no doubt put pressure on the UK and consequently the Pound.

What should I expect this week for the pound?

With the FTSE100 down and the pound plummeting on Friday, unfortunately I think there will be more of the same this week. HSBC have already announced they could move 1000 employees from London to France once the UK leaves the European Union. As soon as more businesses start to announce they could be pulling the plug in the UK the pound’s value will fall.

If you have a foreign currency to buy within the next 12 months and do not have all of your Sterling available we can still help before the pound falls further. I would recommend locking into a forward contract, this is where you take today’s exchange rates but pay later for it.

When buying or selling the Pound its important to analyse both currencies that you will be trading (GBPEUR, GBPUSD, GBPAUD). Feel free to email me with the currency pair you are looking to trade and the time-scales you are working too and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

As a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. In addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. This will make you more informed when trading.

Alternatively call me on 01494-787478 and ask to speak to Dayle Littlejohn. I look forward to hearing from you.

Brexit vote results in huge losses for the Pound against the Euro and US Dollar (Tom Holian)

The Brexit vote has caused Sterling to fall by 11 cents against the Euro and 16 cents against the US Dollar as the Pound went into free fall during yesterday’s trading session. This has led to huge demand from clients looking to sell Euros or US Dollars into Sterling.

The vote to Leave the European Union caused a big surprise to financial markets as bookies had given odds of 10-1 on that the UK would vote to Remain just hours before the results came in.

Prime Minister David Cameron has also announced his resignation, which will take place in October, so we have another four months of political uncertainty as well as the economic uncertainty surrounding the European Union issue.

Currency does not like uncertainty and with yesterday’s results this is what caused the Pound to suffer and in my 13 years dealing in the foreign exchange markets I have never seen such huge single day movements for GBPEUR rates and GBPUSD rates during that time.

We could see further struggles for Sterling in the week ahead as the media is likely to hype up the story over the weekend.

Credit ratings agency Moody’s has downgraded the UK’s credit rating outlook to negative as the uncertainty of the vote is likely to lead to big falls in GDP and cause the UK’s economy to struggle.

The result of the referendum could also see a second independence referendum in Scotland as the vote to stay in the European Union in Scotland was huge.

I expect to see Sterling continue to come under pressure next week so if you’re looking at either selling Euros or indeed any other currency to buy Pounds now is an incredible opportunity to do so.

 

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote.

For a quicker response on Monday morning please email me this weekend with your requirement and a phone number. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Will the Pound get weaker?

I’ve received a large number of emails this morning asking whether the Pound will weaken, it is of my opinion that the Pound will weaken in the foreseeable.

There are a number of factors that we need to consider now that the UK has decided to withdraw from the EU. Firstly, we do not have a date for when the UK will officially withdraw from the EU, this creates an extended period of uncertainty for the UK, which could have implications for businesses. Organisations have to make key decisions on how they manage business policies, expenditures, and expansion. Trade could change, prices could change, employment could change.

How will expatriates deal with the news? Will they return to the UK over fears of losing their rights? How will this impact international estate agencies?

But the bigger question, how will this impact the British economy? If the BoE, the majority of economists and financial institutes all agree that a Brexit could pose negative implications on the UK, what impact will this have on the Pound.

If we look at the timeline of events, the Pound slumped on a leave vote, David Cameron stepped down, Scotland are in the midst of calling their own Referendum and this is only just the beginning.

A new Prime Minister will be elected to trigger article 50, the UK will then be given a deal by the EU which the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble states, is unlikely to be a good one.

In my honest opinion, based on the above alone, Pound Sterling may fall further and if I had a large amount of Euro’s or US Dollar’s to buy, I would be doing it sooner rather than later.

What does an EU withdrawal mean for the Pound?

This morning is a historic event for the EU, as much as it is the UK. The first country ever to withdraw from the EU. David Cameron this morning has given his speech to the British public announcing his resignation – rightly or wrongly – stating that the British people need a new leadership to take them through the withdrawal process.

What does this mean for the UK and more importantly, how will this impact the Pound?

The Pound slumped 11% on the outcome of the vote, FTSE fell sharply but both have stabilised in the early hours of trading. GBPEUR rates remain at 1.25, GBPUSD rates fell sharply from 1.50 to 1.32, lows not seen for 3 decades, before regaining ground to 1.39.

The outlook for the Pound looks bearish, David Cameron’s resignation casts further uncertainty over the future of the UK and until we have some clues as to what deal the EU will give the UK, the Pound could continue to fall in the foreseeable.

Those looking to buy pounds are likely to have an extended period of opportunity until it’s understood the wider implications of a Brexit. In the mean-time, existing agreements with the EU will remain frozen until article 50 is triggered. With the announcement of David Cameron’s resignation, this may not be for some time.

That being said, the UK is vulnerable to economic releases, changes in consumer spending and given that inflation is 0.4%, there are concerns by some that the UK may fall into recession.

Mark Carney of the BoE warned of the potential implications of a Brexit, so have a number of economists, business leaders and financial institutes.

As a Pound buyer, a window of opportunity has opened for you.

The Pound’s recovery is contingent on a number of factors. Who will take over as Prime Minister? What deal will the EU provide? Will the UK suffer economically as a result? How will this impact the global economy?

There are such a large number of factors that could impact Sterling and whether you are buying or selling, rates are still attractive either side with GBPEUR rates now at 1.25 and GBPUSD are moving back up to 1.40. The next few weeks and months ahead are shrouded in uncertainty and I would therefore advise you email me at rdl@currencies.co.uk if you have any concerns about the Pound weakening further.