Monthly Archives: November 2016

GBPEUR forecast for December 2016 (Dayle Littlejohn)

Throughout October many of the leading banks and economists were predicting GBPEUR exchange rates would reach parity throughout 2017. A month down the line GBPEUR exchange rates have improved and broke through 1.18, which just shows how quick exchange rates can change.

For the remainder of the year, there is a good chance that the euro will continue to devalue and therefore GBPEUR will increase. My prediction is that GBPEUR will be above 1.20 before Christmas and below are my reasons why.

This weekend the Italian public will vote to give power to the Government and take power away from the Senate. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has stated he will resign if the Government are not given more power. If he loses the referendum I expect the euro will devalue.

On the 8th December President of the European Central Mario Draghi is set to make his decisions on the quantitative easing program. ECB officials have warned that ultra loose policy is needed therefore I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mario Draghi extend the Q.E program, which theoretically means further euro weakness.

The last major event that could have an impact on euro exchange rates is the US interest rate decision. Many economists are predicting a hike from 0.5% to 0.75% and therefore investors will flock to the dollar for profit on their investments. EURUSD is the most traded currency which again leads me to think this event could be euro negative.

However it’s important to take into consideration that Brexit still looms of the UK and any news that the UK will leave the single market from the Supreme Court ruling could lead to major sterling weakness.

If you are trading another currency pair that I have not covered, feel free to email me with the pair (GBPUSD, GBPAUD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

If you are buying or selling euros in the upcoming weeks and are looking to achieve competitive rates of exchange whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to call the trading floor on 0044 1494 787478 and ask for Dayle Littlejohn. Alternatively drop me an email.

 

Sterling close to 2 month high to buy the Euro (Tom Holian)

The Pound has gained vs the Euro and the US Dollar after mortgage approvals in the UK jumped to over 67,5000 from the estimate of 65,000. This shows that even in the wake of the Brexit vote people are still borrowing and it highlights that the UK economy is still doing well in spite of the vote to leave the European Union back in June.

The good news about UK mortgage approvals is that it is a good indicator as to the overall health of an economy and one of the first sectors to fall in an economic downturn.

Over the weekend we could see a huge amount of volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates when the Italians hold their own referendum on Sunday regarding constitutional reform.

The Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has suggested that he might step down if the vote does not go his way and political uncertainty often has a big negative impact so if the vote goes the wrong way for Renzi we could see GBPEUR exchange rates go in an upwards direction.

Other European countries are going to the polls next year including France and with the right wing Marine Le Pen gaining 20% of the vote according to some recent polls this could see things changing on the continent politically next year.

If you’re in the process of selling your property in France or Spain and are worried about the Euro going in the wrong direction it may be worth buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for the future for a small deposit.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you better exchange rates than using your own bank and also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Sterling riding high, but will the Pound’s rally continue? (Daniel Johnson)

Pound Sterling Forecast

Since Philip Hammond’s Autumn statement we have seen the Pound rally against the majority of major currencies.  Hammond delivered a realistic , non dramatic statement but made it clear he will be attempting to make Britain resilient to any problems that come from a possible exit from the EU.

The pound has hit new buoyancy levels against the majors, but I am not convinced Sterling will continue to rise in value. We have the Supreme Court Judgement which will determine whether the government will get the final say on the triggering of Article 50 which will officially start the process of Britain exiting the EU.  Scotland also may get involved, the argument that Scotland will be impacted by the decision bears credibility.

If the decision is that the government will have their say then the possibility of a soft Brexit becomes more likely, this should strengthen the Pound, but will elongate the exit process and Theresa May’s target of leaving the EU by the end of March could well be pushed back. If you are looking to sell the Pound you may wish to consider moving before this event.

Pound to US Dollar exchange rates in detail

The key upcoming event for the US is the interest rate decision on 14th December. Janet Yellen the head of the Federal Reserve indicated at the end of last year that there would be several rate hikes in 2016, but none have yet to materialise. Although the FED is meant to act as a separate entity to the government, the political uncertainty created around who would win the presidency may have been a factor in keeping rates on hold.

Trump has been highly critical of Yellen’s unwillingness to hike rates and has gone as far to threaten her with a more bullish replacement. This could well force Yellen’s hand on December 14th and there is a high probability of a rise in interest rates. If you are buying US Dollars it may be wise to move before the interest rate decision. Keep an eye on Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday as this event is notorious for it’s unpredictability and ability to move markets.

Pound to Euro exchange rates in detail

With current levels close to 1.18, a near two month high it is tempting to perform your trade if you are selling Sterling with the Supreme Court judgement and the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision early in December. Many econimists are predicting that Mario Draghi the Head of the ECB will let slip his plans for future Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially pumping moneyinto an economy to stimulate growth. The ECB is currently injecting €80bn a month into the Eurozone. The current program is due to end in March, but with little change of inflation I would be surprised to see QE not continue. There is also the possibility of an increase in monthly increments. If news does filter through on 8th December this could be what the gambling Sterling seller could have been waiting for.

If you have a currency trade it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital, If you have an experienced broker on board they can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of  the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free individual trading strategy. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better almost every competitors rate of exchange. You would  be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

Daniel Johnson

Executive Dealer – Foreign Currency Direct PLC

The ‘Trump Train’ market surge fades but Sterling manages to hold on to it’s gains, but for how long? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has surged across the board through November for a number of reasons, with the main catalysts being the likely delay to invoking Article 50 and beginning the Brexit process, and Trumps election victory in the US boosting sentiment surrounding the UK economy.

Those planning on converting Pounds into another foreign currency have been dealt a good hand this month, as the Pound has gained clawed back quite alot of it’s losses since the Brexit vote.

This month alone the Pound has gained 5 cents vs the US Dollar and 7 cents vs the Euro. In monetary terms a £200,000 GBP to EUR currency exchange is now gaining an additional €15,000+ in the space of 30 days which just highlights the importance of timing large currency conversions.

As a specialist currency brokerage we’re here to monitor the currency markets on behalf of our clients, and in volatile trading conditions like we’ve seen this month our service can really save clients large amounts of money due to the assistance with timings and reacting to market movements.

There will be manufacturing and construction figures released later this week which could affect GBP exchange rates depending on their outcome, and if you are planning a currency exchange between the Pound and another major currency and would like to plan around these events, do get in touch regarding timings and exchange rates.

The Pound has so far held onto it’s gains made this month, but currencies do tend to fall quicker than they climb and if some ‘Hard Brexit’ related news is released there is a chance the Pound could lose some or even all of it’s recent gains.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. 

You can also call in and ask reception to speak with me (Joe) on 01494 787 478. 

Why should you contact us here at Pound Sterling Forecast? (Daniel Wright)

Over the past seven years we have had many clients contact us to see if we can assist them both with the timing of their currency exchange, but also with saving money over their bank or other currency brokerages.

All of the writers here work for one of the largest brokerages in the U.K and between us we have over 70 years experience of helping people send money overseas or bring money back for property purchases, property sales, business transactions or any other reason that involves a currency exchange.

We do not deal with holiday money or cash transactions unfortunately but we do pride ourselves on the very highest level of customer service along with seriously good rates of exchange.

Most of our traders have been doing this longer than our competitors have existed, so by contacting us here at Pound Sterling Forecast you can have the peace of mind that not only will you get a great rate, but your transaction will be handled smoothly and efficiently by a team that know exactly what they are doing.

We love providing our regular readers with up to date and important market information on this site and welcome all new enquiries with a personal response as soon as we possibly can.

Looking at the economic calendar we are fairly thin on the ground for data over the next few days as the month ends but do be wary as you can see fairly large swings for currencies as you near the end of the month as larger corporations net off positions and we start to see month end flows.

If you would like to be kept fully up to date with market movements or you would like to save money on any pending currency exchange you have then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to give you a call or reply to you email and answer any questions or queries that you may have. I look forward to speaking with you.

 

Profit taking undermines the Pound – where next for GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD? (Joshua Privett)

Like clockwork speculative trading on Friday has attacked some of the Pound’s heavy gains against the Euro and the Australian Dollar in particular over the past 3 weeks.

After breaching fresh 10 week highs just on Thursday, the Pound was hit on two fronts on Friday.

Firstly, harsh words from the Maltese Prime Minister about the upcoming negotiations with the EU were enough to upset a clearly hypsersensitve market at the moment.

Sterling recouped some of those losses when it was quite clear it was an overreaction to those comments. Though you can’t blame investors for jumping the gun…the last time a few leaders from the Eurozone made comments like that it was the beginning of October and it caused a flash crash on the Pound, with GBP/EUR falling 4 cents as an example.

Following this, the rollercoaster continued for buying Euro and Dollar rates, and the reasoning points to worrying expectations for exchange rates in the latter part of next month.

Profit taking and protective trading will likely see the Pound undercut quite heavily as markets relieve themselves of riskier currencies ahead of the Christmas period when trading winds down. Essentially many traders are not at their desks so will likely buy up ‘safe haven’ currencies such as the Swiss Franc and US Dollar to avoid coming back to work in January to see hard earned profits lost.

The expected mass sell off of Sterling is why companies and individuals are already planning to protect themselves during this period.

A more muted version of this actually happens every Friday as investors sell off their Sterling to protect themselves heading into the weekend when they are not at their desk.

The fact that this continues to happen is why anyone with a buying Euro, US Dollar, or Australian Dollar requirement should be wary of the Christmas period.

 

If you are planning a currency purchase involving the Pound, it is certainly worth your time contacting me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to order to explore the options open to you to seize any peaks which emerge on GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD and GBP/USD, and to safeguard your transfer from any unexpected turns in global politics and the financial world.

I offer my customers a proactive service to make sure you remain a well informed purchaser and avoid being ‘last to the party’ when attractive levels for buying or selling suddenly emerge. I also work for one of the UK’s leading currency exchange brokerages who provide highly competitive currency exchange rates.

To avoid the inherant risk of the Christmas period, I would remind our regular readers that you can also ‘pre-book’ your currency at today’s rates for a later period to avoid navigating particularly volatile periods when you have a planned currency exchange in 2017.

Will Sterling rise against the Euro next week? (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the Euro has recently hit 10 week highs with the Interbank level breaking through 1.18 during the course of this week. The Pound has gained against all major currencies and particularly vs the single currency with EUR/USD exchange rates close to their lowest levels in over 10 years.

There are various problems on the continent and with 2016 seemingly the year of anti-establishment with the Brexit vote and recently Donald Trump I think there could be further problems for the single currency caused by political instability in the longer term.

The Italians will be holding a referendum in less than 2 weeks which will look at constitutional reform and with the Italians having had 65 governments since the World War politically this could cause further uncertainty and this could be reflected in the value of the Euro against Sterling.

In France Marine le Pen is looking to run for the French president next year and with 5 months to go this is also another reason why I think the Euro could struggle.

However, the problems facing the UK and therefore Sterling is again being caused by political uncertainty. The recent High Court judgement ruled that Theresa May will need parliamentary approval to invoke Article 50 and the next step will be the government’s challenge in the Supreme Court to try and overrule the verdict made by the High Court. This is due to take place in early December but we may not know the outcome until January.

Turning the focus towards UK economic data we have a number of key data releases to watch out for which could impact GBPEUR exchange rates.

On Wednesday UK Consumer Confidence is published which has rebounded back to pre-Brexit levels recently. Business investment has been apparently resilient to the uncertainty caused by the vote to leave the European Union and this data release is likely to highlight my assumption.

On Thursday PMI manufacturing data for November is due to be released. After the index fell in July it has started to gain supported by a weaker Sterling which has encouraged exports so again I think this data could provide Sterling with further support to send GBPEUR rates in an upwards direction.

Having worked in the foreign exchange markets since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident not only of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your trade.

If you’re in the process of selling a property in Europe it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

To find out more or for a free quote then please get in touch directly by sending me an email and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Will the pound rise higher or fall before the end of 2016?

The pound has entered a fresh period of buoyancy finding favour against all currencies in November. October was a month of tremendous uncertainty but sterling has now recovered and this is presenting some very good news opportunities to buy a foreign currency. December is already looking extremely interesting with some very important events in the Eurozone and the United States which you can read more about in my post from this morning here. Otherwise let us have a look at some of the key decisions which will shape sterling exchange rates for the end of 2016.

The Supreme Court decision is one of the biggest factors for the pound in my opinion since it highlights the path to Brexit. The decision as to whether or not the UK will have to seek parliamentary approval to trigger Article 50 is of major consequence to the pound. If the Supreme Court rule Parliament does then we will surely see sterling rise since it makes the ‘hard’ Brexit Theresa May is apparently pursuing less likely. Parliamentary approval will undoubtedly hinge on severe watering down of the terms and even raises the possibility Brexit may not happen. The court decision may not be known until January but the story will be big news for December and early January.

If you are planning a currency exchange involving sterling I would be making plans around this information, it looks likely the vote will be upheld so sterling could rise further. If you need to buy or sell the pound then making some plans sooner rather than later is best to avoid the uncertainty this event presents to financial markets. For more information on this event and how to take advantage please speak to me Jonathan by calling 01494 787 478 or emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will the pound rise or fall in December?

The pound has had an amazing few weeks going from one of the world’s worst performing currencies to one of the world’s best performing currencies. Investors were bracing themselves for a dreadful finish to a bad year for the pound but now the outlook is a little rosier. Of course the performance of the pound will be interesting to you depending on which currency you are buying or selling against the pound. December has some very important global events alongside key news at home, all of which will shape sterling exchange rates. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound soon or in 2017 December is a key month to be making some plans ahead of!

EURO (GBPEUR) – The Italian Constitutional Referendum is on the 4th December and could easily see a big unwinding of Euro positions. This could give Euro buyers with pounds a nice early Christmas present! The Euro may weaken as political uncertainty in the region becomes a concern, the referendum is on constitutional reform but is turning into a vote on the popularity of Matteo Renzi the current Italian PM. On the 8th December the European Central Bank meet to discuss further QE (Quantitative Easing) measures which could also weaken the Euro.

December is shaping up to be a very volatile month for the Euro. The pound has just hit fresh 2 month highs against the Euro but will this last or could it go even go higher? For more information on this particularly uncertain pair please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk. We could hit over 1.20 so if you are looking to buy at 1.20 or more please let me know.

US Dollar (GBPUSD) – The fallout from Donald Trumps election victory continues mainly in emerging markets but the ascent of the US dollar seems almost unstoppable. One event that could easily half the strength of the US dollar is December 14th the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. With markets pricing in over 90% probability of the US raising their interest rate to 0.75% global markets will be bracing themselves for this important wide reaching event. Expect further US dollar strength but this might lead to unexpected swings on GBPEUR and GBPUSD and investors move funds in and out of the US dollar.

GBPUSD exchange rates have been some of the most volatile in 2016 moving over 30 cents between the high and the low. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound and US dollar then please contact me to discuss the market in depth and all of your options. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to get a further breakdown of the outlook and best available rates on this volatile pairing.

Jonathan Watson in action!

Jonathan Watson 

I Jonathan Watson have worked as a currency specialist for almost ten years helping business and private clients maximise their currency exchanges. I can offer a full overview of the market and highlight all the important events and your options to help limit your currency exposure. I would be delighted to hear from you and have a chat about our services and how we might help.

To contact Jonathan please email jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478. Jonathan has appeared on BBC News discussing the EU Referendum and has been quoted in the FT, The Times The Telegraph and many more. 

Buying rates for Euros and Australian Dollars testing new highs, but GBP/USD lagging behind (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has had a fantastic two weeks to say the least after what had been heavy drop after heavy drop on buying Euro and Dollar rates of exchange. We are now entering a period of stability following a stint where in two weeks the market has moved more than the last three months combined for GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD and GBP/USD.

Buying Euro rates in particular have been the main beneficiary from this recent movement, being hit by a Trump Presidency from two angles which explain the 7% plus gains since November 9th.

Due to the special relationship between the US Dollar and the Euro, a stronger Dollar tends to draw capital away from the Euro. Whilst Trump is a wildcard his very public support for a US interest rate hike in December is fueling heavy Dollar interest, with investors in the Euro diverting their attention to the other side of the Atlantic. The Euro thus deflates as disinterested parties go elsewhere.

Furthermore, the expectation of a change in the US stance of a hostile Obama to a supportive Trump for the UK leaving the European Union has also buoyed market confidence in a better result for the UK in upcoming negotiations.

Now that the Autumn statement has passed, with Hammond’s praise of the positive impact of the Bank of England’s interest rate cut and increase in monetary stimulus suggestive that further emergency stimulus is not necessary in the UK since the vote, the Pound can move forward at its gradual pace of improvement barring any political surprises.

Without much economic data out between now and the beginning of December when the cycle begins once again with a fresh look at November, buying Euro and Australian Dollar rates will likely continue to benefit from a stronger Pound.

Apart from the unknowable factor which is the Supreme Court’s decision over the role of Parliament in the Brexit to be decided on December 10th, red flags and flashing sirens are abound for anyone with a GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD, or GBP/USD requirement in the latter part of December.

Profit taking and protective trading will likely see the Pound undercut quite heavily as markets relieve themselves of riskier currencies ahead of the Christmas period when trading winds down. A more muted version of this actually happens every Friday, so feel free to have a look at rates on Friday afternoon to see if this materializes and get a better understanding of how markets are functioning at the moment.

In the meantime, Sterling buyers may be wise to move quite quickly if the time period for your transfer does not allow for you to wait for this latter December period.

Conversely Euro and Australian Dollar buyers may be wise to monitor market rates over the next few weeks, particularly in the run up to December 10th.

If you are planning a currency purchase involving the Pound, it is certainly worth your time contacting me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to order to explore the options open to you to seize any peaks which emerge on GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD and GBP/USD, and to safeguard your transfer from any unexpected turns in global politics and the financial world.

I offer my customers a proactive service to make sure you remain a well informed purchaser and avoid being ‘last to the party’ when attractive levels for buying or selling suddenly emerge. I also work for one of the UK’s leading currency exchange brokerages who provide highly competitive currency exchange rates.

I will answer your email as soon as I am able to since time can very regularly be of the essence when it comes to currency queries. Please feel free also to contact me 01494 787 478 during office hours (8:30-6pm) and ask the reception team to be put through to my line (Joshua).