Daily Archives: January 6, 2017
The pound is fairly stable and range bound at present as markets keenly await the next direction of the Brexit. We are all eagerly awaiting the next bits of news over the Supreme Court decision and it is this which will determine the more immediate direction on the currency pairing. If you have a transfer to consider involving sterling understanding what is happening and being ready to react is the best way to capitalise on this news. At the moment we do not know when the decision will be released and this is keeping the market nervously on its toes.
Essentially upholding the previous High Court decision should see the pound rally but I think the gains will be limited. My personal expectation is for this to lead to sterling gaining up to 2% against its counterparts. If the decision goes for the government sterling will fall because I believe markets have very much priced in ‘good news’ that the previous decision would be upheld. If it falls in this scenario sterling could lose up to 4% as it becomes apparent a hard Brexit is more likely again. Sterling might retest the kind of levels we saw back in October last year.
After the Supreme Court decision attention will still remain on the Brexit and any good news for sterling will be shortlived in my opinion. There will still be many unanswered questions and as the resignation of Sir Ivan rogers, the UK’s Ambassador to the EU shows there is scope for further political casualties. Attention towards the end of the quarter will focus on the likelihood of Theresa May triggering Article 50 plus the Dutch and French elections. I expect GBPEUR could trade between 1.12 – 1.23 depending on the various outcomes here. If you wish to trade at these levels and wish to be kept informed of developments please email me on email@example.com
The big news on the US dollar is the likelihood of further interest rate rises. A strong jobs report has given rise to expectation we could see further interest rate hikes soon and GBPUSD has dipped. I expect GBPUSD to trade between 1.14 and 1.25 in the coming weeks. As you can see I feel the US dollar will be strengthening.
If you have a currency transfer involving sterling and wish to optimise your position with some expert insight and information please contact me Jonathan on firstname.lastname@example.org. I work as a currency specialist and have appeared on BBC News discussing Brexit and the impact on the currency markets. I would be very happy to hear from you and answer any questions and help you with your situation.
Thank you for reading, I hope to hear from you soon.
UK economic data this week has performed very well. Markit Manufacturing released Tuesday started the momentum with a release of 56.1 compared to last months 53.6. Wednesday’s PMI construction numbers also exceeded expectation with 54.2 compared to the consensus of 52.8 and yesterdays Markit Services numbers finished the run nicely with an improvement to 56.2. Many analysts actually believed a decline into the 54s was expected for the service numbers.
With economic data impressing you would have thought the pound would have gained momentum this week, however this has not been the case. It seems the pound is going through a jittery period due to the Supreme Court verdict this month.
The feel on the market is for a sharp fall if the Supreme Court overturn the High Court decision. However on the other hand we could see the pound gain momentum if UK Prime Minister Theresa May has to seek Parliament approval before triggering Article50 and start the process of leaving the EU.
UK economic data to look out for next week is NIESR GDP numbers at 3pm Tuesday and Manufacturing and Industrial production released Wednesday morning.
When buying or selling the pound you also need to understand the factors that will be impacting the other currency. Feel free to email me the currency pair you are converting (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair and the process of using our company email@example.com.
For the readers reference the company I work for on a daily basis save clients money on currency transfers. If you are planning a transfer and are using your bank or another brokerage, I would reccomend getting in touch for a forecast and at the same time compare of exchange rates. This is free of charge and will take you a few minutes.