Daily Archives: January 11, 2017
Sterling tentatively up but US Dollar steals spotlight away from buying Euro exchange rate gains (Joshua Privett)
The very politicized landscape for 2017 has struck the currency markets once more, with Sterling gaining strength following very encouraging economic performance news, but still losing out heavily to improvements on the US Dollar and Australian Dollar today.
I’m sure many of the readers here would have seen the news coming out in the last 24 hours about the alleged ties between Trump and Russia. Rather than Russia seeming to be the outside actor influencing the election, there is now talk of the Trump campaign team and Russia actively working together.
What does this have to do with exchange rates?
The value of the US Dollar is heavily linked to the Australian Dollar, and today was the confirmation hearing for the US Secretary of State. With all of this news, markets were worried he would flounder and create an issue for his confirmation hearing. Quite the opposite. He confirmed the party line and seemed to allude to a continuation of previous foreign policy under Obama (i.e. critical of Russia), and market confidence in the Dollar soared, taking the Australian Dollar with it.
So US Dollar and Australian Dollar sellers were gifted some tempting exchange rates from this sudden situation found in the US and the way it was dealt with.
The positive news today for the Pound, however, is still suggestive of further improvements for Sterling in the medium-term. The Supreme Court could be released any day from tomorrow now that they are back in session, and the anticipated result should improve Sterling’s buying power against its major currency pairings.
As in November, when the initial ruling from the Judicial Court stated that Parliament must be consulted to trigger Article 50, rates for buying Euros and Dollars soared.
However, as we edge closer to Article 50 being triggered, this is causing heightened anxiety surrounding the Pound. The sudden drop in the Pound on Monday in reaction to Theresa May’s very vague and hardly shocking comments in an interview on Sunday.
So with the risk of May and other European leaders having to make more and more comments on the aims of the negotiations as we edge closer to March, it can be argued that the clear result of the Supreme Court decision could bring a ‘sweet spot’ on buying Euro and Australian Dollar rates in particular before we edge further into this period of heightened political risk to the value of the Pound.
To ensure you make the most of this particular opportunity, a premium will be put on being able to move quickly over the next few weeks. There are a number of options through a currency exchange specialist which makes sure you are never ‘last to the party’ when more tempting buying opportunities arise, as they are rarely available for long.
You can contact me overnight whilst markets are quiet on email@example.com to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximizing your currency return and protecting it from any sudden pitfalls, which can occur in this marketplace with little warning.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.
Sterling has come under pressure this week following comments made over the weekend by UK Prime Minister Theresa May, regarding how she wished the UK to facilitate our exit from the EU.
She stated the UK would look towards a “hard Brexit”, which ultimately means that we will be cutting nearly all ties with the EU. This has caused investors to panic and the markets have reacted accordingly, with the recent loses against all the major currencies a result of this.
Despite these obvious fears May also mentioned she wanted the best deal for the UK in terms of leaving the EU but stated that we will not be keeping part membership and we were going to break off completely. This means that trade deals and immigration rights will need to be renegotiated and this causes a huge amount of market uncertainty.
Market uncertainty is a currencies killer and this is why the Pound is fighting an uphill battle. Talk of Brexit and how we will facilitate this is likely to drive investor confidence and in turn the Pound’s value for months if not years to come.
These comments were clouded somewhat by UK Chancellor Philip Hammond who admitted no decision had yet been made as to whether the UK would stay in the single market post Brexit. It may be that the Prime Minister is trying to give herself a strong bargaining positon ahead of negotiations with the EU but wither way we just don’t have enough information to hand to make a firm decision either way.
I would not be gambling on the current market and with the UK economy so fragile in the minds of investors and GBP/EUR falling back below 1.15 at yesterday’s low, it may be time to secure your Sterling position and remove the uncertainty surrounding the whole debacle.
With the Supreme Court meeting again today we could get a decision regarding the triggering of Article 50 at any time, so it would be wise for anyone with a Sterling currency requirement to keep in close contact with their personal currency broker, to ensure any opportunities that arise are not missed.
If you have an upcoming Sterling currency exchange to make and you are looking for the best exchange rates available, then please feel free to contact us on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.
We can provide key market information and analysis ahead of any transfer, whilst keeping you up to date with all the latest market movements. We help our client to time their exchange to maximise the market value available and have awards for our exchange rates and service.
If you would like to contact am directly I can be emailed on firstname.lastname@example.org