Buying Euro and the various Dollar exchange rates had a strong run heading into the Easter weekend. However, anyone holding Sterling or those who have an interest in purchasing the Pound has to rememeber that whilst it is a bank holiday in the UK on Friday and Monday, it is not the same everywhere else.
Even the US doesn’t take a long weekend over Easter, so currency markets continue to move whilst UK based banks and traders are inoperational.
So what happens when one of the world’s key financial sectors is taken out of the mix? Distinctly abnormal trading. Strong, snap, movements rather more gradual changes throughout the day when a full playing field is there.
I saw this on Friday sporadically when I was out of the office, yet by the end of the day buying Euro and Dollar rates closed very near where they began, with GBP/EUR just shy of 1.17 and GBP/USD still holding around the 1.25 mark as we saw on Friday.
Monday will see markets kick-start once again in this strange fashion with most data coming out expected to effect buying US Dollar and Australian Dollar rates of exchange the most. These performance indicators will focus on the Chinese economy as a whole and the US housing market. Both seem set to undermine the value of the Dollar and the Australian Dollar.
The discussion topics around the Euro will still stay squarely focussed on the French elections, particularly since the first round of voting is next week. As with the Brexit vote, the two weeks prior to brought the most movement and this will likely be no different.
Current polling suggests it is no longer a two-horse race, a massive surprise given that one challenger is now under formal investigation for illegally paying his wife hundreds of thousands for no identifiable work…
Polls can be trusted about as far as they can be thrown these days, but this is still the only information currency markets have to work with, so expect buying Euro rates to continue fluctuating with the changing winds.
In an evolving political situation, a premium is put on being in touch with market movements on a continual basis, and this is part of my role here as a trader to keep my clients informed of opportunities and any sharp or gradual changes in currency trends.
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