We are almost halfway through the Article 50 period which ends on March 29th 2019 but with the EU looking to get the negotiations on trade and transition finalised by October, we do not have too long to get this agreed. We are well past the halfway point of this negotiating timetable which began last summer and ends this October, and it looks like we have a lot more than 50% left to finalise. In my opinion the goodwill and sentiments emanating from the discussions and being extended to the pound will soon turn more fraught as we approach the deadline.
I write this not to be negative on the Brexit or bad mouth the UK, simply to point out the reality of the situation for sterling holders. I appeared on BBC news before the Referendum going against the grain stating that Brexit would probably not be too bad for the UK economy and it hasn’t so far been.
2018 is going to be a very important year for the pound and the Brexit, if you have a transfer to consider buying or selling the pound it is important to be aware of the trends and themes in the market.
Put a Limit in!
What has been very useful for my clients in these uncertain times is the Limit order whereby we enter an order into the market at your desired level which automatic triggers once your desired rate is hit. If you wish you can also set a worst case scenario which will trigger if the market drops.
Using both together guarantees a range of trading levels within a specified period and ensures you don’t miss out on any potential opportunities or problems.
The main gauge of the overall position of sterling strength is the UK Pound sterling Index which essentially looks at the pound’s relative strength across the board. Currently sitting at 78.2 it is near some of the higher levels we have had since the vote to leave in June 2016. Whilst it has actually been higher than it is now on this measure hitting 79.4 in April last year, we are not too far off the 79.5-80 prior to the vote.
Considering the pound hit 74.30 in October 2016 during the ‘flash crash’ and 74.7 last September when sterling was suffering on the prospect of a ‘no deal’, we are doing very well at present. What worries me slightly about all of this is how far apart the UK and the EU still are on so many important issues.
If you have a position and wish to get some expert advice about trading levels and strategy for any transfers then please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing an overview of your situation and contact details.
Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you in the future.