Tag Archives: australian dollar

Future for Sterling uncertain in the run up to the EU referendum (Tom Holian)

There has been huge a huge amount of uncertainty for Sterling exchange rates whilst the UK economic recovery has been faltering as of late.

This has seen GBPEUR exchange rates drop to their lowest level to buy Euros since November 2014 and GBPUSD rates hit close to their lowest level to buy US Dollars for almost 6 years.

The uncertainty of a referendum and the potential of a Brexit is putting a huge amount of pressure on Sterling with confidence also remaining very low for the Pound.

The Chancellor George Osborne recently cut the UK’s economic growth forecast from 2.4% to 2% for 2016 which caused further falls for Sterling against all major currencies.

For buying the Australian Dollar with Sterling the exchange rates are also now at their lowest levels for 12 months.

All this is great news if you have a foreign currency to buy Sterling but unfortunately if you are in the unenviable position whereby you need to exchange Sterling to buy Euros, USD or AUD we could see further falls in the run up to the EU referendum due to take place of 23rd June.

If a currency doesn’t like anything it’s uncertainty and with recent opinion polls showing the ‘Leave ‘vote getting bigger this is putting a lot of pressure on Sterling exchange rates.

Therefore, if you need to send money overseas over the next few months it may be worth buying a forward contract which allows you to secure an exchange rate for at the future which will eliminate the risk of the currency market falling further against you during this uncertain period coming up.

UK Retail Sales have fallen recently as well as production levels and there appears to be little on the horizon in terms of good news for the UK at the moment.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk



US Employment Data causes US Dollar Strength vs Sterling (Tom Holian)

The US economy has announced better than expected jobs data for February at 242,000 new jobs created compared to the expectation of 190,000.

This has seen the Dollar strengthen against both Sterling and the Euro and providing some strength for the riskier commodity based currencies including the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and the South African Rand.

The reason for the movement is that as the US economy shows signs of strengthening this encourages global investors to move money into riskier currencies again.

The positive employment figures justify the Fed’s decision to increase interest rates a few months ago and we could even see interest rates go up again for the US this year.

Sterling Euro exchange rates will largely be influenced by two key events next week with the NIESR GDP estimate for the UK due on Wednesday and the ECB’s next interest rate decision to be held on Thursday.

Arguably the most important release will be the ECB meeting as there is a strong possibility of further Quantitative Easing.

If this happens then we could see Sterling rally vs the Euro and many with Euros to buy are waiting for 10th March to see what may happen if the ECB intervenes.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk



Will sterling keep up this current trajectory?

Tomorrow is UK Retail Sales and Friday is the latest UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data. Both of these releases could easily spark volatility in the market underlining the importance of keeping up to date with the market. In the last few weeks sterling exchange rates have crept up notably against the Euro but we are at multi year highs against pretty much everything! Can sterling keep on this trajectory?

Well early indications seem to think so with recent poor borrowing economic data being ignored in anticipation of an interest rate at hike at some point in the future. As is so often the case with exchange rate it isn’t just which currency is the best, it is that others are very unpopular! Take the Euro for example, we may still see some QE (Quantitative Easing) in the future. This form of ‘printing money’ is very bad for the currency as by increasing the money supply it effectively dilutes the strength of the currency. The UK used QE many years ago and this is one of the reasons the pound dipped to almost parity with the Euro, imagine the detrimental effect QE in the Eurozone would have on GBPEUR rates!

If you have any need to buy large volumes of foreign exchange getting the best exchange rate is central to making the most of your money. The authors of this blog and I are extremely confident we can undercut other sources like banks and other currency brokers on exchange rates, plus also offer practical assistance in the timing and management of your payments. For a quick rundown of your situation and a comparison why not make contact? We can then have a quick chat at no cost or obligation and you can decide for yourself what is better! After all if you were entirely happy with your current situation you probably wouldn’t have read this far!

Jonathan Watson, jmw@currencies.co.uk

How much higher can sterling go? Important upcoming events for the pound!

Looking ahead is always fraught with difficulties but sometimes it is easier when you know a little more than the average. Just now sterling is at 1.2613 on GBPEUR and 1.7160 on GBPUSD. Other exchange rates are also at multi year highs giving some well deserved relief for anyone transferring money abroad in recent years! I was helping some clients buying property in Europe at 1.10 a few years ago and I remember businesses buying the USD cheering at being able to get 1.50!

Tomorrow we have a very important release for the UK with the latest labour market statistics including the all important Unemployment rate. With Inflation having unexpectedly risen changes in Average earnings will attract slightly more attention, the prospects for GBP strength on the whole seem high.

Thursday is the all important CPI (Consumer Price Index) Inflation data for the Eurozone which will outline just how justified recent ECB (European Central Bank) actions have been in attempting to quell falling inflation or ‘disinflation’. Sterling may therefore make some further gains against a battered Euro.

Priced In? – Markets have probably been pricing in the prospect of a) good UK data and b) bad Eurozone data so anything that comes out worse than expected for the UK and better than expected for the Eurozone could trigger sharp corrections. Movements of up to one cent should not be ruled out depending on just what happens. I would personally be shooting for better rates to buy a foreign currency towards the end of the week (from tomorrow) in anticipation of some positive UK Unemployment data cementing and even lifting current levels.

Should you have further to hold on you can wait until next Friday when we get the first estimate of UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the UK for Q2. I would personally not be surprised to see the rates tick higher on this release although arguably the good news is already in the market. As with the two releases above for me the risk is to the downside, markets expect positive numbers for the UK. Anything to the contrary could trigger sterling losses.

For more information on how to approach your transaction plus an award winning exchange rate when you do, please speak to me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.

Bank of England Financial Stability report and its potential impact on the pound (Mike Vaughan)

Today the focus for anyone looking at the pound will be a report from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney scheduled for 10:30. This will be the release of the banks Financial Stability report. Published twice a year under the guidance of the interim Financial Policy Committee, it shows the Committee’s assessment of the outlook for the stability and resilience of the financial sector at the time of preparation of the Report.

It will give further clues as to monetary policy and again could be a volatile day for the pound, any hawkish comments and look for a strong day for sterling, however should the report give little away or indeed show a dovish tone then the pound could have a poor end to the trading week. I personally feel it will be a relatively cautious approach giving little away in terms of the Banks timings for a rate hike but is certainly one to watch.

Finally to end the week UK GDP figures are released tomorrow at 09:30. Forecast to come in at 0.8% and if as expected I would expect little movement for sterling as a result.

Poor US GDP data weakens the dollar

Yesterday the US released its latest GDP figures and following the release the dollar lost momentum against a number of currencies with figures coming in at -2.9% down from the forecast figure of -1.7% – its worst in five years.

This continues the run of softer data from the US keeping pressure on the dollar and focus will now head towards next week’s unemployment figures and in particular Thursday’s non-farm payroll data to see if this trend continues.

Whats in store for the Australian Dollar?

Recently the GBP/AUD rates have been fluctuating between 1.78-1.83, a trend that has run for the past 8 weeks with neither currency looking to push forward.

For me I still feel with the likelihood of the UK raising interest rates before the RBA, we are likely to see the pound push towards the top of this range and beyond. Historically levels are still very low for buying AUD and still to me shows some good value for anyone selling the Aussie. Should we see any dips towards the 1.80 level and you are selling then I would look to this as an opportunity, for anyone buying I am confident more value will be seen in the coming weeks and months.

Looking ahead and the RBA will be holding their latest interest rate meeting and statement early on Tuesday morning. Recently the RBA has been giving some mixed signals regarding how comfortable they are with the value of the dollar and for this reason it is difficult to predict what governor Glenn Stevens will say.

For me I believe they are still uncomfortable with how strong the Aussie is and they are likely to refrain from raising interest rates anytime soon as a result.

With plenty to focus on for the rest of the week it is important to make sure you get as much information as possible when making a decision on the timing of your transfer. By speaking with one of our brokers we can keep you regularly updated with market trends and track the market on your behalf. To get further information or to run through your transfer in more detail please email Mike mgv@currencies.co.uk

Busy day for sterling

Today the pound has suffered slightly as Average Earnings figures amongst others showed the Unemployment situation in the UK isn’t quite as buoyant as maybe some investors had hoped. This is good news for anyone who needs to buy the pound as the currency outlook would appear to favour GBP strength, if therefore you can sneak in with a transaction on this spike it is good news.

If you have any transactions to consider selling sterling we could see moves higher soon so do make contact to be kept up to date. For those looking to buy sterling making plans sooner really would appear to be the wisest move since as the economic conditions in the UK improve we should see the pound strengthen.

If you have any transactions to consider please let us know.


Pound sterling forecast quoted in the Daily Mail today!

You can read the full link here. If you have any currency transactions to undertake and wish to learn the forecast please contact us. We primarily specialise in handling larger currency transactions (GBP 10k and upwards) but do hope our loyal readers and Daily Mail readers alike find our information useful!




Busy week on exchange rates! What will happen to your exchange?

Recent positive sterling moves have been exacerbated by improvements in the currency outlook for the pound. Services data today showed yet further improvements which should mean we expect only further GBP strength against most currencies, but not all! Read on to get a quick overview of important things to note regarding your pair. For a more detailed outlook and information on making international payments at better exchanges rates than banks and other sources please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPUSD – The USD is on the back foot following some bad GDP data last week. Despite an improving employment outlook the USD still stands to lose out in the future and I am sure we will see 1.70 soon. The chance of any US Interest rate hike is now miles off in the future, well behind that of the UK and the pound hence the improvements on this pairing. The USD will find favour however whether from Ukraine uncertainty or an improving economy so don’t hold out too long…

GBPEUR – The Euro appears weak against sterling but is actually very strong. If you look at the Euro against the US dollar and Australian dollar you can see it is at historically very strong levels. Much will be outlined by Thursday’s ECB decision, will they look to weaken the Euro? One interesting fact to note is that the ECB view EURUSD at 1.40 as unfavourably strong so if the trend of Euro strength, USD weakness continues the ECB may speculate over intervention into the market. Watch this space!

GBPAUD – The RBA have achieved their primary goal of weakening the Aussie, indeed this has been very successful. They are no longer targeting a weaker Aussie and improvements in the Chinese economy warrant a firmer Australian currency.

The pound looks set to be the main beneficiary of improved economic sentiments. All in all if you are planning to buy currency soon with sterling, taking stock of the current market is very sensible. We can forward buy currency and offer a range of options to limit your exposure to the market. A quick phone call or email to us really is a wise move as we are specialists with many years experience in the planning and execution of your international payments.

Hope to hear from you soon!

Jonathan Watson


+44 (0) 1494 787 478

Two Important considerations forecasting Pound Sterling Exchange Rates

Good afternoon Readers! The pound is at some truly excellent levels currently, levels that should not be easily dismissed in the hope of much better rates. If you need to buy or sell currency there are a few pointers to note that will make your life easier and your wallet heavier!

Accept that you will not get the ‘top’ or the ‘bottom’ of the market. All too often I am managing one of my client’s currency exposure and they base all their calculations on a recent high. So for example selling Euros to buy pounds at 1.19 or buying Euros with pounds at 1.22. If you do this you are likely to be disappointed. Speak to me about what is a more realistic rate to achieve by calling 01494 787 478 or why not email me jmw@currencies.co.uk

Do your research! There can be major difference between the exchange rates offered by banks and currency brokers like us. But there can also be major differences between the rates offered by different brokers. Here at poundsterlingforecast.com we seek to undercut other brokers and on large volumes the differences can be significant.

GBPEUR is currently 1,2131, GBPUSD is 1.6751, GBPAUD is 1.7921 and GBPCAD is 1.8261

Getting the best exchange rate on a large volume currency transfer (£10,000 +) makes a big difference to the amount you receive. If you are transferring a sum of this size and want to learn the current forecast please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk for the very best rates and latest news on what will move your rate!



Australian Dollar Drops Below 1.80 (Tom Holian)

Good morning readers and thank you for your continued interest in this website and I hope you’ve enjoyed being kept up to date with currency movements. More often than not the focus is mainly on Sterling, Euro & US Dollar but I feel it’s important this morning to focus on what is happening to the Australian Dollar with such a large movement over the last few weeks.

Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rates have now fallen to their lowest level since November 2013 after having hit a 4 year high earlier this year. The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens has suggested that a boom for the Australian housing market is coming. It has also been predicted that the Chinese will push through a range of stimulus programmes to boost the economy which is turn is likely to increase trade with the Australian economy and therefore could have a strengthening effect on the Australian Dollar which has struggled owing to the slowdown in the mining industry down under during 2013.

This could be the turning point for the Australian economy as the focus moves into the construction industry. Governor Stevens even went on to state that he was seeing ‘a fascinating divergence between the views of foreign observers, especially in Asia, many of whom say to me Australia is doing very well.’ The currency markets will often move on positive sentiment and I think that’s the case with the recent movement.

With the RBA having said in early February that the interest rate cutting cycle has come to an end this is another reason why we have seen a fight back for the Australian Dollar particularly against the Pound. With a big shift in sentiment this could lead to further Australian Dollar strength which could see GBPAUD rates fall further.

If you’re worried about the GBPAUD exchange rate and want to save money when exchanging currency compared to using a bank then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk