Tag Archives: australian dollar

Two Important considerations forecasting Pound Sterling Exchange Rates

Good afternoon Readers! The pound is at some truly excellent levels currently, levels that should not be easily dismissed in the hope of much better rates. If you need to buy or sell currency there are a few pointers to note that will make your life easier and your wallet heavier!

Accept that you will not get the ‘top’ or the ‘bottom’ of the market. All too often I am managing one of my client’s currency exposure and they base all their calculations on a recent high. So for example selling Euros to buy pounds at 1.19 or buying Euros with pounds at 1.22. If you do this you are likely to be disappointed. Speak to me about what is a more realistic rate to achieve by calling 01494 787 478 or why not email me jmw@currencies.co.uk

Do your research! There can be major difference between the exchange rates offered by banks and currency brokers like us. But there can also be major differences between the rates offered by different brokers. Here at poundsterlingforecast.com we seek to undercut other brokers and on large volumes the differences can be significant.

GBPEUR is currently 1,2131, GBPUSD is 1.6751, GBPAUD is 1.7921 and GBPCAD is 1.8261

Getting the best exchange rate on a large volume currency transfer (£10,000 +) makes a big difference to the amount you receive. If you are transferring a sum of this size and want to learn the current forecast please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk for the very best rates and latest news on what will move your rate!

Jonathan

 

Australian Dollar Drops Below 1.80 (Tom Holian)

Good morning readers and thank you for your continued interest in this website and I hope you’ve enjoyed being kept up to date with currency movements. More often than not the focus is mainly on Sterling, Euro & US Dollar but I feel it’s important this morning to focus on what is happening to the Australian Dollar with such a large movement over the last few weeks.

Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rates have now fallen to their lowest level since November 2013 after having hit a 4 year high earlier this year. The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens has suggested that a boom for the Australian housing market is coming. It has also been predicted that the Chinese will push through a range of stimulus programmes to boost the economy which is turn is likely to increase trade with the Australian economy and therefore could have a strengthening effect on the Australian Dollar which has struggled owing to the slowdown in the mining industry down under during 2013.

This could be the turning point for the Australian economy as the focus moves into the construction industry. Governor Stevens even went on to state that he was seeing ‘a fascinating divergence between the views of foreign observers, especially in Asia, many of whom say to me Australia is doing very well.’ The currency markets will often move on positive sentiment and I think that’s the case with the recent movement.

With the RBA having said in early February that the interest rate cutting cycle has come to an end this is another reason why we have seen a fight back for the Australian Dollar particularly against the Pound. With a big shift in sentiment this could lead to further Australian Dollar strength which could see GBPAUD rates fall further.

If you’re worried about the GBPAUD exchange rate and want to save money when exchanging currency compared to using a bank then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

Important Information on the pound if you have a currency exchange soon! Best rates in 2014 to sell EUR for GBP… (Jonathan Watson)

As predicted here back in February on this website the pound has suffered due to the bad weather. It has been ticking down lower against pretty much everything notably a much stronger Euro. This is partly due to all the economic data releases showing declines in the rates of growth as people struggled to get to work and businesses were closed. So we know why rates have ticked down, the question is what will happen next?

“Next week is a whole host of very important UK data which will very likely to move sterling exchange rates”

If you need to buy or sell sterling in the coming days and weeks you should take note of the UK Budget, UK Unemployment data and the Bank of England minutes next week. There is a very strong chance sterling could rise or fall on this data and making any clear prediction is incredibly difficult. If I was to stick my chin out I would probably say the pound would rise, I would rather be selling the pound than buying it. And that is why if you need to sell a foreign currency to buy the pound I would be making preparations for these key events.

Currency Transfer soon? We are currency specialists who offer much better exchange rates than the banks and other sources. If you are currently speaking to another company or the bank about a large volume currency exchange you should speak to me too to check your exchange rate. We source exchange rates direct from the market and this allows us to undercut other companies, I am confident I can show you a saving. Even a small difference in the price on a large volume of currency makes a major difference in the amount of currency you receive.

We offer a personal proactive service to manage your exposure to the currency markets. If you are considering something soon and would like a quick overview on the rates, process, current market and forecast please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 during UK business hours.

Sterling weakness up ahead? Why now is a good time to buy the pound

Jonathan Watson

Jonathan Watson

Currently sterling is well supported largely due to the strong likelihood of the UK raising interest rates next year. Investors are taking up positions on sterling in anticipation of better returns in the future. 80% of currency transactions are speculative and whilst this is not a topic we deal in for clients , it is a topic that is extremely relevant in determining future market movements for our clients.

Longer term sterling appears bound to increase significantly as the prospect of ultra low interest rates becomes the past. The pound has been flirting with 5 year highs on a trade weighted basis which when you consider interest rates have been at rock bottom for 5 years makes sense.

Since we won’t actually see any actual hike for some time there is certainly a good chance of more GBP weakness but it will be in pockets and not reflective of a greater downward trend. If you are going to need to purchase the pound in the future moving sooner is I believe the best course of action. Please contact me directly for assistance in sourcing the best rates and the optimum peaks to trade on. I assure you of being able to beat the banks and currency brokerages.

Many of my clients selling say Euros and Dollars after a property sale are quibbling over the fact they are trading at multi year lows. I wholly sympathise with these clients because when you do the calculation on the losses selling six figure sums in the last year they are substantial. But if you look further back say at the 10 year and 5 year figures you will see current rates are not so bad.

Take Mr Smith in France for example, who may have purchased there when rates were say 1.50. Imagine buying a 200,000 Euro property at 1.50. This would have cost you 133333.33 GBP. Fast forward ten years and unfortunately he has had to sell to come back to the UK and had to take a hit on the price. He had to sell for 175,000 Euros and was not happy at having lost 25,000 on the price. However he managed to get 1.20 on the rate which means his 175,000 Euros are actually worth 145833.33 GBP. Suddenly it is not such a bad deal and when he considers all the fun times he had there, the whole experience has actually not been too bad!

This just shows the importance of exchange rates when considering overseas transactions. Sterling is at a very good level now which may yet improve. Understanding what is driving exchange rates is critical to getting the best deal. For more information on the forecast for your particular situation please don’t hesitate to contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Mark Carney helps sterling to rise, will it last?

Mark Carney and the Bank of England have raised UK growth forecasts helping sterling to gain against a number of currencies.  At the same time they have underlined interest rates will be on hold for a long period of time which limits just how much higher we can expect sterling to rise in the coming weeks and months.

Jonathan Watson

Jonathan Watson

If you have a sterling transfer to consider in the coming weeks and months making some plans now at these levels may be a sensible move. 

In other news the new Federal Reserve Chairmen Janet Yellen underlined Quantitative Easing in the US is likely to continue until there are significant improvements in the jobs market. And overnight Chinese economic data was much stronger than expected presenting what I believe is a very good opportunity for anyone selling Australian dollars or South African Rand to buy GBP.

I am available to assist in the planning and execution of any international money transfers you need to make (including bringing funds back to the UK or Europe). Unfortunately no one can tell you exactly what will happen on exchange rates but having won awards for our service and rates, we are extremely well placed to offer expertise in managing your currency exposure.

For a breakdown of strategies and options on your particular exchange please call me Jonathan in UK office hours on 01494 787 478 or if you prefer email a quick outline of your position to jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling remains at excellent levels! Economic picture remains mixed however (Jonathan Watson)

The National Institute of Economic & Social Research (NIESR) today confirmed that the UK economy grew at 0.8% in the last three months to November. Sterling has been performing excellently against a range of currencies but just how far can this go? With much uncertainty still surrounding the global economic outlook the pound may yet still suffer.

Economic growth is rising but just how sustainable is it? House prices are rising at their fastest in many years but there is already talk of a bubble and Mark Carney has indicated he will be ready to step into the market to calm everything down if needs be. Much of sterling strength in recent months has been down to expectations the UK will be raising interest rates in the next year or two when in fact the bank’s own forecasts actually go out to 2016.

With many troubles remaining in the Eurozone  which accounts for 40% of the UK’s overseas trade it would not be surprising to see UK growth suffer in the future. It is wrong to be reliant on a booming housing market and increased consumer spending as drivers of sustainable growth because ultimately both can lead to their own problems – housing bubbles and increased debt.

Whether buying or selling a foreign currency understanding the pitfalls and ways to handle the transfer are key to getting the best exchange rate. As well as offering excellent rates above banks and other sources we also offer guidance on the markets and processes for international payments. No one can predict the market but we can highlight current trends and themes and make sure if rates or sentiments change you are kept up to speed.

On a large currency purchase a difference of one or two cents makes a huge difference. For example if you are selling 500,000 Australian dollars today rather than two weeks ago you are getting close to £16,000 less. Likewise if you are buying 500,000 AUD today rather two weeks ago it is £16,000 cheaper! We undercut the banks by as much as 4 or 5 cents depending on how much you exchange so it really is worth checking in with us and exploring all of your options.

The worst thing you can do when making a currency exchange is to just do it through your bank. For more information at no cost or obligation from a currency specialist please feel free to speak with me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I will be very happy to speak to you and answer any questions. Even if your exchange is just a one off we can help you, I look forward to hearing from you.

Important news for anyone buying or selling the pound – Why sterling will strengthen further

The current outlook for the pound is now very much positive with the pound posting some important gains against many different currencies. Of note is GBPCAD, GBPNZD, GBPAUD which are all posting very strong rates well above the the recent averages. With such strong moves in a short period of time it is highly likely there will be lots of profit taking which will pull things back down, this could be a very good opportunity for anyone buying sterling to enter the market.

Positive GDP this morning has cemented sterling’s position against most currencies and with central banks globally threatening looser policy, it is only really the Bank of England which appears to be on a track to tightening policy. This of course could be years away but with other banks looking at more accommodative measures the pound is standing out and it is likely will strengthen further.

The ECB are looking at possible negative deposit rates, the RBA is actively seeking a much weaker currency and the Fed is largely committed to continuing the QE programme until the economic conditions improve of which we have seen not much hope so far.

If you are buying or selling the pound an awareness of the latest trends and themes is key to securing the best rates. For more information on what is driving your rate and assistance with the very best rates of exchange please contact the author directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Busy week ahead for the currency markets. Still very attractive buying Euro & Dollars (Ben Amrany)

The pound has had steady gains across the board today with rates up against the Euro by 0.40%, USD by 0.47% & AUD by 0.51% during today’s trading session. Over the coming days there are numerous data releases to come out from the UK, Eurozone, US and Australia.

Looking first and foremost at the UK things kick off on Wednesday which will more than likely be a very volatile day. The table below shows you exactly what is coming out data wise. Recently manufacturing and production figures have been showing signs of growth so we may find a slight dip this month as it could be difficult to beat the last couple of months figures.

The biggest release will be the GDP figures. The markets will be eagerly awaiting this one as once again signs of economic growth for the UK economy could just give the pound a timely boost. Any drop in GDP which is lower than what is expected may cause the pound to take a tumble against a host of majors out there. Personally I feel that the mornings data could help a run for the pound but when the GDP figures are released we may see a slight reversal. If you are looking at making a currency transfer and do not wish to take the gamble with your exchange then you can either forward buy your currency before the key releases from the UK. You are welcome to contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk or call the office and ask for myself and I will explain all the options that are available to you with your money transfer.

08:30

UK

GBP

BOE Credit Conditions Survey (Q3)

08:30

UK

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)

08:30

UK

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug)

08:30

UK

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug)

08:30

UK

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Aug)

08:30

UK

GBP

Total Trade Balance (Aug)

08:30

UK

GBP

Goods Trade Balance (Aug)

08:30

UK

GBP

Trade Balance; non-EU (Aug)

14:00

 UK

 GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Sep)

EURO

Looking at the Eurozone Tomorrow we have numerous data releases from Trade balance figures to factory orders. Then on Friday is the consumer price figures for Germany. I expect that by the end of the week we may see some slight Euro strength and those that are still holding for that psychological 1.20 may have to wait that little longer.

US Dollar

The Dollar has been on a roller coaster ride of late significantly weakening against the pound from the mid 1.50’s to spiking around the 1.6250 mark. This Wednesday the markets will be waiting for the minutes from the Federal Reserve. This could cause a lot of volatility as any mention of the FED tapering could cause the Dollar to strengthen and we may dip below the 1.60 rate. If you are buying Dollars this is not a release that I would be waiting for but if you need to sell the Dollar then come Thursday the rate may be a little more attractive than at present.

Australian Dollar

The AUD seems to be moving on risk sentiment at the moment along with comments that come out of the RBA. We have business confidence out in the early hours of the morning and then late on Wednesday evening a raft of employment figures. Providing the data comes out negative for Australia then a real dip for the Aussie may occur. The rate of late has been constantly hovering between the 1.68 to 1.74 level and I think it will be difficult to break through this range. If you are buying the AUD be cautious as by the end of the week I feel that the rate will be between 1.69/1.72.

If you are looking at buying or selling a currency and are looking for a better rate of exchange than the banks along with a personal service to give you the information needed to decide when to do your exchange then please do contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk The rates I offer are up to 4% better than the banks and can make you a significant saving when you are exchanging thousands of pounds.

Thank you for reading.

 

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

Has this sterling rally run out of steam? Tomorrow’s US data could dramatically affect rates on many different currency pairs, don’t get caught out!

An exceptionally impressive run for sterling could now be about to come under threat from any not so impressive data and attention being drawn elsewhere. Exchange rates move according to sentiment and rumour as much as fact and the impressive tones for sterling must be seen in the context of the dire sterling news we had been used to for most of the year. The rise in sterling can be mainly attributed to expectations interest rates will raised ahead of the banks own forecast of 2016. Betting against a central bank can prove costly!

“Each year there are a few events that cause exchange rates to move dramatically in a short space of time providing excellent opportunities for buyers and sellers who have made proper preparations”

What is next?

Market attention tomorrow will initially look to the UK Bank of England Minutes at 09.30 before the all important Federal Reserve Bank decision at 1900 hrs UK time. This decision on any extent to which QE will be withdrawn will affect not just the US dollar but also the Euro, AUD, CAD, NZD, ZAR and many others. Rate movements of up to 3 or 4 cents in a short space of time should not be discounted as investors move funds to fall in line with where they think rates and economic policy will head in the future.

Each year there are a few events that cause exchange rates to move dramatically in a short space of time providing excellent opportunities for buyers and sellers who have made proper preparations, Tomorrow night could be such a time and we may see market movements for the next few weeks and months determined by this activity. Utilising a stop loss or limit order is the best way to capitalise in such a scenario! This guarantees your rate even if the market touches your price for a only a second.

To discuss strategies to maximise your currency purchase please speak to me on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information.

US Economic Policies have global ramifications

US Quantitative Easing has been keeping global confidence high but the withdrawal or reduction has the propensity to sap confidence in the market. This would cause ‘riskier’ assets like the Kiwi, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Rand to be sold off. The key question is ‘will they taper’ and ‘by how much’. I think a cut of $10bn is realistic. This is at the lower end of expectations but a couple of not so impressive data releases from the US (on jobs and retail sales) may limit the initial higher expectations of a cut of up to $20bn.

Currency strategies to maximise your rate

Plan for the worse, hope for the best! That is always the best way to approach such decisions. Since no one can tell you exactly what will happen, an awareness of all of the facts and a quick review of your personal circumstance is the best way to approach the decision. Depending on which currency pair you are involved with will determine what may be the best course of action. If you are planning an exchange soon (even if just a one off) our service is designed to save people money on the actual rate as well as offer assistance with the timing of the exchange. Please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk for information on what may be best for you.

If you are selling a foreign currency to buy sterling it may be worth holding off slightly at present as further major sterling gains look limited in the absence of significantly better economic news. This will of course depend on which currency you are selling, again please contact me directly for the detailed forecast on your situation.

GBPEUR & GBPUSD is a 9 month high, GBPAUD is close to 3 year highs. To ensure you really are getting the best exchange rate and discover all of your options on moving money internationally please make contact with us. You can speak with me Jonathan by calling 01494 787 478 or email me directly too on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Hope to hear from you soon!

Sterling should remain supported but don’t be surprised to see other currencies gain back soon

Sterling’s good run could continue tomorrow morning at 09.30 am with the release of the latest Unemployment figures. Regular readers of the site will know that Mark Carney has linked raising interest rates (a key determinant on the strength or weakness of a currency) to the Unemployment rate and all of the good news in the last few months in Construction, Services and Manufacturing may cause Unemployment to have fallen.

This could help sterling to gain up to a cent against most currencies although the gains may not be too long lived. Looking specifically at the Euro, US dollar and Aussie dollar, here is why. For a quick explanation of any currency pair I have missed please speak with me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk, I shall try to respond instantly!

EURO  – German elections! This is on the 22nd September and should cause the euro to strengthen against most currencies. Merkel will probably remain in power and the certainty and direction this provides, as well as hopefully brighter days for the Eurozone will all help keep the euro strong.

USD – QE Tapering! Quantitative Easing has been a key factor in rejuvenating the American economy. However there are still signs the US economy is weak. US domestic policy has a big impact not just on the USD but also many other currencies and assets. If they do taper (cut / withdraw / scale back) the current QE programme, I would expect USD strength. GBPUSD is currently at a very good price as there is not quite a high chance as last week of QE and because the Syrian crisis is experiencing a breather. Expect the USD to strengthen if the threat of strikes and intervention increases again.

AUD - The Syrian crisis slightly cooling has also benefitted a return to riskier assets helping the AUD to strengthen. Better news from china and a lower chance of another RBA cut has also helped the Australian dollar to claw back some ground. If the Syrian crisis is resolved this should help the Aussie although longer term on this pair, rates could get better for AUD buyers, worse for sellers.

When should I make my currency exchange?! the million dollar question! And we can give you an answer. There is no ‘right’ answer because no one can tell you exactly what will happen. Our experience of trading the markets for clients means we can give you an advantage however. As a leading UK currency brokerage we can undercut the banks and I personally have never had any trouble beating other companies. For a free, no obligation discussion of your position please speak with me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk, hope to hear from you soon…

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