Tag Archives: australian dollar
Tomorrow is UK Retail Sales and Friday is the latest UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data. Both of these releases could easily spark volatility in the market underlining the importance of keeping up to date with the market. In the last few weeks sterling exchange rates have crept up notably against the Euro but we are at multi year highs against pretty much everything! Can sterling keep on this trajectory?
Well early indications seem to think so with recent poor borrowing economic data being ignored in anticipation of an interest rate at hike at some point in the future. As is so often the case with exchange rate it isn’t just which currency is the best, it is that others are very unpopular! Take the Euro for example, we may still see some QE (Quantitative Easing) in the future. This form of ‘printing money’ is very bad for the currency as by increasing the money supply it effectively dilutes the strength of the currency. The UK used QE many years ago and this is one of the reasons the pound dipped to almost parity with the Euro, imagine the detrimental effect QE in the Eurozone would have on GBPEUR rates!
If you have any need to buy large volumes of foreign exchange getting the best exchange rate is central to making the most of your money. The authors of this blog and I are extremely confident we can undercut other sources like banks and other currency brokers on exchange rates, plus also offer practical assistance in the timing and management of your payments. For a quick rundown of your situation and a comparison why not make contact? We can then have a quick chat at no cost or obligation and you can decide for yourself what is better! After all if you were entirely happy with your current situation you probably wouldn’t have read this far!
Jonathan Watson, firstname.lastname@example.org
Looking ahead is always fraught with difficulties but sometimes it is easier when you know a little more than the average. Just now sterling is at 1.2613 on GBPEUR and 1.7160 on GBPUSD. Other exchange rates are also at multi year highs giving some well deserved relief for anyone transferring money abroad in recent years! I was helping some clients buying property in Europe at 1.10 a few years ago and I remember businesses buying the USD cheering at being able to get 1.50!
Tomorrow we have a very important release for the UK with the latest labour market statistics including the all important Unemployment rate. With Inflation having unexpectedly risen changes in Average earnings will attract slightly more attention, the prospects for GBP strength on the whole seem high.
Thursday is the all important CPI (Consumer Price Index) Inflation data for the Eurozone which will outline just how justified recent ECB (European Central Bank) actions have been in attempting to quell falling inflation or ‘disinflation’. Sterling may therefore make some further gains against a battered Euro.
Priced In? – Markets have probably been pricing in the prospect of a) good UK data and b) bad Eurozone data so anything that comes out worse than expected for the UK and better than expected for the Eurozone could trigger sharp corrections. Movements of up to one cent should not be ruled out depending on just what happens. I would personally be shooting for better rates to buy a foreign currency towards the end of the week (from tomorrow) in anticipation of some positive UK Unemployment data cementing and even lifting current levels.
Should you have further to hold on you can wait until next Friday when we get the first estimate of UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the UK for Q2. I would personally not be surprised to see the rates tick higher on this release although arguably the good news is already in the market. As with the two releases above for me the risk is to the downside, markets expect positive numbers for the UK. Anything to the contrary could trigger sterling losses.
For more information on how to approach your transaction plus an award winning exchange rate when you do, please speak to me Jonathan Watson on email@example.com or call 01494 787 478.
Today the focus for anyone looking at the pound will be a report from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney scheduled for 10:30. This will be the release of the banks Financial Stability report. Published twice a year under the guidance of the interim Financial Policy Committee, it shows the Committee’s assessment of the outlook for the stability and resilience of the financial sector at the time of preparation of the Report.
It will give further clues as to monetary policy and again could be a volatile day for the pound, any hawkish comments and look for a strong day for sterling, however should the report give little away or indeed show a dovish tone then the pound could have a poor end to the trading week. I personally feel it will be a relatively cautious approach giving little away in terms of the Banks timings for a rate hike but is certainly one to watch.
Finally to end the week UK GDP figures are released tomorrow at 09:30. Forecast to come in at 0.8% and if as expected I would expect little movement for sterling as a result.
Poor US GDP data weakens the dollar
Yesterday the US released its latest GDP figures and following the release the dollar lost momentum against a number of currencies with figures coming in at -2.9% down from the forecast figure of -1.7% – its worst in five years.
This continues the run of softer data from the US keeping pressure on the dollar and focus will now head towards next week’s unemployment figures and in particular Thursday’s non-farm payroll data to see if this trend continues.
Whats in store for the Australian Dollar?
Recently the GBP/AUD rates have been fluctuating between 1.78-1.83, a trend that has run for the past 8 weeks with neither currency looking to push forward.
For me I still feel with the likelihood of the UK raising interest rates before the RBA, we are likely to see the pound push towards the top of this range and beyond. Historically levels are still very low for buying AUD and still to me shows some good value for anyone selling the Aussie. Should we see any dips towards the 1.80 level and you are selling then I would look to this as an opportunity, for anyone buying I am confident more value will be seen in the coming weeks and months.
Looking ahead and the RBA will be holding their latest interest rate meeting and statement early on Tuesday morning. Recently the RBA has been giving some mixed signals regarding how comfortable they are with the value of the dollar and for this reason it is difficult to predict what governor Glenn Stevens will say.
For me I believe they are still uncomfortable with how strong the Aussie is and they are likely to refrain from raising interest rates anytime soon as a result.
With plenty to focus on for the rest of the week it is important to make sure you get as much information as possible when making a decision on the timing of your transfer. By speaking with one of our brokers we can keep you regularly updated with market trends and track the market on your behalf. To get further information or to run through your transfer in more detail please email Mike firstname.lastname@example.org
Today the pound has suffered slightly as Average Earnings figures amongst others showed the Unemployment situation in the UK isn’t quite as buoyant as maybe some investors had hoped. This is good news for anyone who needs to buy the pound as the currency outlook would appear to favour GBP strength, if therefore you can sneak in with a transaction on this spike it is good news.
If you have any transactions to consider selling sterling we could see moves higher soon so do make contact to be kept up to date. For those looking to buy sterling making plans sooner really would appear to be the wisest move since as the economic conditions in the UK improve we should see the pound strengthen.
If you have any transactions to consider please let us know.
Good afternoon Readers! The pound is at some truly excellent levels currently, levels that should not be easily dismissed in the hope of much better rates. If you need to buy or sell currency there are a few pointers to note that will make your life easier and your wallet heavier!
Accept that you will not get the ‘top’ or the ‘bottom’ of the market. All too often I am managing one of my client’s currency exposure and they base all their calculations on a recent high. So for example selling Euros to buy pounds at 1.19 or buying Euros with pounds at 1.22. If you do this you are likely to be disappointed. Speak to me about what is a more realistic rate to achieve by calling 01494 787 478 or why not email me email@example.com
Do your research! There can be major difference between the exchange rates offered by banks and currency brokers like us. But there can also be major differences between the rates offered by different brokers. Here at poundsterlingforecast.com we seek to undercut other brokers and on large volumes the differences can be significant.
GBPEUR is currently 1,2131, GBPUSD is 1.6751, GBPAUD is 1.7921 and GBPCAD is 1.8261
Getting the best exchange rate on a large volume currency transfer (£10,000 +) makes a big difference to the amount you receive. If you are transferring a sum of this size and want to learn the current forecast please contact me on firstname.lastname@example.org for the very best rates and latest news on what will move your rate!
Good morning readers and thank you for your continued interest in this website and I hope you’ve enjoyed being kept up to date with currency movements. More often than not the focus is mainly on Sterling, Euro & US Dollar but I feel it’s important this morning to focus on what is happening to the Australian Dollar with such a large movement over the last few weeks.
Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rates have now fallen to their lowest level since November 2013 after having hit a 4 year high earlier this year. The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens has suggested that a boom for the Australian housing market is coming. It has also been predicted that the Chinese will push through a range of stimulus programmes to boost the economy which is turn is likely to increase trade with the Australian economy and therefore could have a strengthening effect on the Australian Dollar which has struggled owing to the slowdown in the mining industry down under during 2013.
This could be the turning point for the Australian economy as the focus moves into the construction industry. Governor Stevens even went on to state that he was seeing ‘a fascinating divergence between the views of foreign observers, especially in Asia, many of whom say to me Australia is doing very well.’ The currency markets will often move on positive sentiment and I think that’s the case with the recent movement.
With the RBA having said in early February that the interest rate cutting cycle has come to an end this is another reason why we have seen a fight back for the Australian Dollar particularly against the Pound. With a big shift in sentiment this could lead to further Australian Dollar strength which could see GBPAUD rates fall further.
If you’re worried about the GBPAUD exchange rate and want to save money when exchanging currency compared to using a bank then contact me directly Tom Holian email@example.com
Currently sterling is well supported largely due to the strong likelihood of the UK raising interest rates next year. Investors are taking up positions on sterling in anticipation of better returns in the future. 80% of currency transactions are speculative and whilst this is not a topic we deal in for clients , it is a topic that is extremely relevant in determining future market movements for our clients.
Longer term sterling appears bound to increase significantly as the prospect of ultra low interest rates becomes the past. The pound has been flirting with 5 year highs on a trade weighted basis which when you consider interest rates have been at rock bottom for 5 years makes sense.
Since we won’t actually see any actual hike for some time there is certainly a good chance of more GBP weakness but it will be in pockets and not reflective of a greater downward trend. If you are going to need to purchase the pound in the future moving sooner is I believe the best course of action. Please contact me directly for assistance in sourcing the best rates and the optimum peaks to trade on. I assure you of being able to beat the banks and currency brokerages.
Many of my clients selling say Euros and Dollars after a property sale are quibbling over the fact they are trading at multi year lows. I wholly sympathise with these clients because when you do the calculation on the losses selling six figure sums in the last year they are substantial. But if you look further back say at the 10 year and 5 year figures you will see current rates are not so bad.
Take Mr Smith in France for example, who may have purchased there when rates were say 1.50. Imagine buying a 200,000 Euro property at 1.50. This would have cost you 133333.33 GBP. Fast forward ten years and unfortunately he has had to sell to come back to the UK and had to take a hit on the price. He had to sell for 175,000 Euros and was not happy at having lost 25,000 on the price. However he managed to get 1.20 on the rate which means his 175,000 Euros are actually worth 145833.33 GBP. Suddenly it is not such a bad deal and when he considers all the fun times he had there, the whole experience has actually not been too bad!
This just shows the importance of exchange rates when considering overseas transactions. Sterling is at a very good level now which may yet improve. Understanding what is driving exchange rates is critical to getting the best deal. For more information on the forecast for your particular situation please don’t hesitate to contact me directly on firstname.lastname@example.org