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Buying euros news, best exchange rates, when to buy, when to sell? (Steve Eakins)
Currency exchange rates have had a bit of a “blip” this week or a SPIKE allowing euro sellers to trade at a 6 week high. It is these SPIKES that often achieve the best price in the market but you have to move quickly to catch them as they don’t hang around for long. A Spike in the market is when some surprising information is released which moves the markets quickly and by a large amount. Unfortunately most recent SPIKE has now ended and the rates have started to return to the level seen over the last 5 weeks.
These spikes do not happen often and when they do it is only the clients with funds available that can normally take advantage. I am of the thought that there will be other spikes through the month of May due to key data being released from the UK with regards to the potential of the UK economy falling into a recession and the Eurozone maybe lowering interest rates. So if you need to move currency internationally register for SPIKE notifications via email at hse@currencies.co.uk
What next for currency rates?
Many euro buyers have been waiting for rates to climb back over 1.20 that we saw last year. Which may or may not happen. The facts still remain that the UK is growing at near zero percent, Unemployment continues to climb, consumer spending is still very low, and there is no real signs of any improvement in the near future. We don’t have an Olympics or a royal wedding to pin our hopes on. This week we have even seen the International Monetary Fund comment that the UK is at risk which is a view also shared by the next Governor of the Bank of England. So in the medium term I expect rates to fall.
The good news however is that rates do not move in a straight line and there are events in the near future that could help euro buyers:
- Next Thursday we have the UK GDP figures being released, this should confirm that the UK avoided a recession. I expect this to improve prices at the time by maybe a cent – saving clients £1,500 on a €200,000 purchase.
- The week following we have European Interest rate decision. There is a possibility that they will cut interest rates which could push exchange rates up for euro buyers, maybe by 1.5 cents – saving clients £2,250 on a €200,000 purchase.
To find out more about the specialist currency service we provide, whether you are a private or corporate client, then we can help. Please get in touch either on 01494 787478 or by emailing me with a brief description of your individual requirement and I will happily contact you and run through your options. You can reach me direct at hse@currencies.co.uk
Register for SPIKE NOTIFICATION or a RATE ALERT simply email me Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk with your details.
Pound Sterling Forecast – What has happened and what may happen to the pound going forward? Sterling exchange rate news against the Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Swiss Franc and South African Rand
Good afternoon – Please find the latest news surrounding the Pound and what may happen going forward:
Sterling – Euro
The Pound has had a fairly stable week against the Euro.
Today could have created a great deal of volatility and there were some fairly swift exchange rate movements however head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi did not announce anything of any great significance during his press conference this afternoon and the bank of England kept everything as normal regarding interest rates and Quantitative Easing.
Tomorrow morning we have European Retail Sales figures out which you would imagine will not be great so we may see a small Euro buying opportunity in the morning.
Sterling – Dollar
The Dollar is seemingly making a little fight back once again against the Pound however four factors could affect this in the short term. Firstly the BOE interest rate decision today, secondly the issue with North Korea…. Hopefully this will calm down before any major action happens however be wary that you could see swift movements for the USD should the current threats start to gain some traction.
Thirdly, we have chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke speaking this evening on the U.S economy so be aware of potential sharp swings for the Dollar overnight depending on what he says regarding future economic policy.
Finally, we have Non-Farm Payroll data out tomorrow for the States which can actually affect all major currencies. NFP data is essentially the number of people in non agricultural employment within the U.S and the reason it can lead to market volatility is it can effect global attitude to risk – Keep your eyes peeled for this data at 13:30pm tomorrow.
Sterling – Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
The Pound is still finding these two as tough opposition and with news that commodity prices had risen by over 7% recently and that the Reserve Bank of Australia have once again kept rates on hold. The strange thing with these pairings is that both Governments appear to be disappointed with how strong their currencies are however neither seems to be doing much about it.
The general outlook is that the trend may continue unless someone steps in to do something about it however if global attitude to risk suddenly decreases then there is a good chance we may see a sharp spike and a potential buying opportunity – contact me today if you want to be made aware should this situation occur.
Sterling – South African Rand
This pairing has been fairly stable of late however once again attitude to risk falling globally may lead to the ZAR weakening again along with any further troubles over in South Africa that we saw a few months back.
Sterling – Swiss Franc
Again, no major movements of late for the pound against the Swiss Franc since the huge charge the Swissy made against Sterling a few months ago – Gaining around 8 cents in a week or so. This pairing is a strange one as the Swiss Government are still not particularly happy with the strength of their currency at present so at any point we could see them bring in a new fiscal policy like we saw quite some time ago where the Swiss Franc lost 10 cents in an hour!
All in all I think the strength of the Pound will be reliant on what happens with the bank of England today and also any rumours or predictions surrounding whether or not the U.K will fall back into recession on the 25th April.
If you have an upcoming currency transfer to make and you already have a trading facility then feel free to get in touch and I will be more than happy to assist you or monitor the market on your behalf. If you do not have a trading facility yet think I would be able to help you both in terms of a great rate of exchange and level of customer service then click here to register with us which is completely free and carries no obligation but will allow you to get a comparison against your current provider to see if I can help you.
I look forward to speaking with you!
The European Central Bank is far from exit – Draghi comments lead to Euro strength, what economic data is ndue out tomorrow and how will it affect Sterling exchange rates?
Mario Draghi – ECB is far from an exit
Latethisafternoon Head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi spoke in public and the main thing to take from his comments were that he feels that the ECB is far from an exit and that Euro breakup fears were totally unjustified.
These comments led to the Euro gaining a little strength back towards the end of the trading day after a cagey start to the week thanks the Italian elections we saw ruffle investors feathers at the start of the week as covered in our previous posts.
Personally I feel this may now calm down fears surrounding Europe in the short term (which Draghi appears to be the master of doing) and may now lead to the Euro pushing back down into the 1.14s in the next few days – If only Mervyn King seemed to speak with the same confidence the Pound would be much stronger I am sure.
European data out tomorrow
We have a host of economic data out for the Eurozone tomorrow morning which will no doubt also be key to the Euros performance tomorrow, with European unemployment and some inflation data all due to be released before 10:00am.
No major change to unemployment is due and PMI data is predicted to be stable, so any improvement on predictions could back up Draghi’s comments and may assist the Euro with another push back against the Pound in trading this morning.
If you wish to be kept abreast of the action as it happens then fill in the enquiry form on this page and one of our highly efficient brokers will get straight in touch to discuss the various options available to you.
U.S GDP figures out tomorrow afternoon
The states are next to take the limelight as US GDP figures (Gross Domestic Product) figures are released.
Gross Domestic Product is a key indicator to the performance of an economy and any change to the predicted figure may lead to a swift shift in exchange rates for almost all currencies.
Expectations are for the level to come out at 0.50% growth so keep a close eye on the markets at 13:30pm this afternoon especially if you have a pending currency transfer to carry out.
This release will not just effect the Pound and the Dollar, it can affect all major currencies as with the U.S being seen as a guide to global activity it can effect attitude to risk so you can see sharp movements in the riskier currencies such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.
Feel free to contact me directly should you be concerned as to what any of these data releases may do to exchange rates, I can assist you with any bank to bank currency transfers for your company, a property purchase or sale or indeed any particular reason. You can email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk please leave a contact number, a good time to call and a brief description of your requirements.
Why the pound can only get weaker! Current pound sterling exchange rates should not be taken for granted…
The pound has dropped quite sharply this year and with very good reason. The number one question I am hearing is will it drop further and as painful as this may be to hear, the answer I have to say is yes. This is good news for those selling a foreign currency to buy sterling, read on to find out how we can help save you money and ensure you trade at the right time.
The UK economy is uncompetitive. Five years of a major depreciation in the value of the pound has done little to ignite the recovery many expected would be under way. It is majorly in the Government’s and Bank of England’s interest to have a weak pound as this will help the recovery and gives credibility to their economic plans. A major devaluing of the pound is the only way the UK can get out of the mess it is in.
Martin Weale from the Bank of England stated only recently that it was in the UK’s interest to have a weaker pound and I expect that these sentiments will prevail for most of the next few months. It is therefore unrealistic to expect that the pound will suddenly make major improvements against the major currency pairs.
Are you considering a currency exchange involving the pound and wondering where all this is headed? For an unbeatable rate of exchange and market updates to ensure you don’t miss out please feel free to contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478. To ensure I can best help you it would be useful to provide an outline of your situation and a contact telephone number.
Tomorrow we have the Bank of England minutes which are likely to cause the pound to lose further ground against the majors. Rates could drop up to a cent or two. There is a very slim chance some members may have voted for a rate hike but I doubt it. The minutes last month were more telling and this could be the case again. I will be watching this release very closely to see what is happening as it may well provide news on where rates will go in the future. If you are too busy to read through twenty pages of Bank of England data please register an interest with me!
To best assess the future we can always look to the past. The pound was strong last year because of Eurozone worries. Investors put money into the pound as a safe haven. This year as those fears have subsided and the UK economy teeters on the brink of an unprecedented triple dip investors have sold off their GBP positions and this has contributed to a weak pound. My predictions are therefore that sterling will continue to suffer in the future and that anyone who thinks this is the lowest it will go should not take current levels for granted.
The best way to ensure you do not suffer at the hands of market movements is to register an interest. As specialist currency brokers we set this site up for our clients and new clients alike. Our personal and proactive service means we can watch the rates for you and provide all the information to make an informed decision. Please feel free to contact myself Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask for me.
I look forward to hearing from you and assisting you with your currency matters.
So after poor GDP figures and indeed poor data all round in January.. Where next for the Pound? Have the Bank of England tried to get a head start in the so called ‘currency wars’ we may be due to encounter? (Daniel Wright)
The Pound has quite frankly had an awful start to the year with poor services and manufacturing data, retail sales and GDP figures being some of the most notable causes towards Sterlings current downward trend. We have seen major stores finding trouble which will only knock unemployment down further and confidence in the Pound is extremely low at present.
Some of the great gains we made against most majors in the last quarter of last year have already been wiped out and the ‘safe haven’ status of Sterling does not appear to be on any investors lips for the time being. Ever the optimist I personally feel we will recover however how long it takes is the million Dollar question right now.
Head of the Bank of England Mervyn King has already commented that he expects so called currency wars to happen in the future and I think all this doom and gloom for the U.K is giving us a head start before others get to make a move. I think the reason currency wars may come into play is because with certain currencies such as the Australian Dollar and Swiss Franc being so strong it will no doubt start to take an effect on exports and this can slowly start to damage an economy over time. What we may see in the coming month and potentially even years is monetary policies across the globe trying to counter act this problem, we have already seen the Swiss National Bank peg the CHF against the Euro and the Reserve Bank of Australia are seemingly happy to keep cutting interest rates (this generally will weaken a currency).
All in all we are set for an extremely volatlile year and the Pound needs something to start moving through the gears and gaining some strength again and the fact that triple dip recession will now be on the front page of every newspaper certainly will not help!
It is times like these that you need someone proactive on your side if you have a currency transfer to carry out in the near future. I assist clients carrying out transfers amounting from £1000 to mulit million Pound transactions and can help you not only with the timing of your transfer but also by getting you a much better rate of exchange than you can get elsewhere… I have had over 2000 people contact me through this site and at I can count how many I could not save money over their current provider on two hands.
If you find my information of use then please do feel free to contact me directly, you can email me djw@currencies.co.uk, fill in the enquiry form on this page or call us on the numbers above during office hours. If you would like regular updates on currency then also feel free to join our mailing list. We look forward to hearing from you!
They say Bad News Comes in Three’s! Will it be so for the pound? These three T’s indicate quite possibly
There are three things that could really slip up the pound this year. Knowing what may happen and when allows you to make an informed decision about when to exchange your currency. No one can tell you exactly what will happen but we aim to ensure our readers and clients have a slight advantage when they do enter the market!
Triple Dip Recession – Unprecedented in modern times but these fears could easily become reality and cause a GBP sell off.
Triple A Credit Rating – The loss of the UK’s prestigious top tier credit rating could rapidly halt any sterling gains.
Trade and Budget Deficits – The UK has not enjoyed a trade surplus since 1981. Quite simply the UK has been living beyond its means for far too long.
Looking in a global context the UK ‘s problems may become more of an issue as Europe appears to have paved a way forward, the Chinese hard landing has not been so hard and the US’s immediate concerns are addressed. The worst case scenarios for each of these three issues has not played out. Confidence has returned for Europe as Greece did not leave and Spanish and Italian borrowing costs have been significantly reduced. Chinese data is still pointing to strong Manufacturing output and the solutions on the fiscal cliff have helped instill confidence.
The pound enjoyed a pretty good year last year. At various intervals we broke through many of our clients (realistic 
) target rates. GBPUSD at 1.60 +, GBPEUR at 1.20+ & 1.25+, GBPAUD at 1.60+, GBPNZD at 2, GBPCAD at 1.60+, GBPZAR at 14+ and of course many others. Whilst these rates have at times been taken for granted you do not need to go back more than year or so to find rates significantly lower.
Is this trend likely to continue in 2013? I would say on balance probably not. Services data for December showed the first contraction in the sector for two years. Services is one of the main sectors of the UK economy and if in decline we should be worried. We certainly cannot rely on Manufacturing to get us out of the mess, nor Construction. Services is the main feature of the UK economy so this needs to see positive news, not negative.
24th January we have the UK GDP figures for Q4 2012 and this is the next big event for me. Tomorrow’s Bank of England and European Central Bank decisions could easily be a non event but are the main topic this week.
Should you be considering any transfers I would be more than happy to explain how to go about getting the best exchange rate. Please feel free to speak with me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.
Thanks,
A new year and a new look for Pound Sterling Forecast – What has happened while we have been away?? (Daniel Wright)
Well as expected the Fiscal cliff episode did go down to the wire and will now probably still be spoken about for a while before we hear the end of it – What did it do to the currency markets?
Essentially it increased global attitude to risk (this was shown in the sharp rise in share prices today) which also led to investors pulling out of the ‘safer haven’ of the Dollar and pushing funds into the riskier currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollar.
With this we saw a fairly sharp drop in the value of the Dollar and Swiss Franc making them cheaper to buy and a surge in strength for both the AUD and NZD. The Sterling/Euro pairing has spent the day not really knowing which way to head jumping between the mid 1.23s down to the late 1.22s over the course of the day.
In this current market you either have to have an eye on the rate all the time or you need someone to do this job for you, as the cost of your purchase can change sharply in a matter of minutes and you may get a nasty surprise when you come to purchase or sell your chosen currency.
We can help you with this, a large part of our service includes monitoring the markets on your behalf and we have a range of tools to protect you from adverse market movements such as stop loss and limit orders – Feel free to get in touch and ask how these work , they aren’t as daunting as they may sound!
If you would like an experienced currency broker on your side for any upcoming purchases either large or small for a private individual or a company then feel free to contact me directly by emailing me on djw@currencies.co.uk or by filling in the enquiry form on this page – I will personally get back to every email I receive and please do not think that we are too big for any of you – We are more than happy to help whatever your situation but we do not deal in travel money or cash.
We also have a mailing list on this page so feel free to fill in your email address and you will get my weekly currency updates.
Personally I feel the U.K may see some fairly good data releases this month so the Pound could be in for a good run – However as always the on-going European crisis and Fiscal cliff could easily turn things upside down at any time!
Happy new year to all of my regular readers and I wish you all a fantastic 2013!
Currency market – The week ahead for the Pound against the Euro, Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar – Will the markets be rocked before Christmas? (Daniel Wright)
This week sees head of the ECB Mario Draghi speaking this afternoon, Reserve Bank of Australia minutes this evening, Inflation data for the U.K tomorrow, Bank of England minutes on Wednesday morning and GDP figures for the U.K, New Zealand, Canada and the States during the week. Please ensure you get your exchanges in early too as Christmas is fast approaching.
Pound Sterling Forecast – The week ahead
Today We have head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi speaking at 14:30pm so for those with the need to either buy or sell Euros it may be prudent to keep a close eye on rates during this period – hopefully the current slide against the Euro will not continue but it would be rare for Draghi to say anything too negative this close to Christmas. Tonight we have the minutes from the latest Australian Interest rate decision so anyone with a requirement for AUD may wish to put protection in place in case we get an overnight slide.
Tomorrow Tomorrow morning is key for the Pound as we have a flurry of inflationary data out for the U.K along with the Bank of England quarterly bulletin. The rest of the day is fairly quiet when it comes to data releases so inflation could set the scene for the day.
Wednesday The Bank of England get their last chance of the year to rock the boat as we see the minutes from the last interest rate decision. How they voted for key fiscal policy decisions will be announced and the key here is once again to avoid more potential Quantitative Easing as it could lead to the Pound dropping once again. Later Wednesday night we have the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting minutes from their last interest decision, the key here will be how they plan to attack their economy going forward and we could see shifts overnight so be aware if you need any NZD in the near term.
Thursday US GDP figures will be the main talking point however we do have inflation data for Europe in the morning. The US GDP figures can have an effect on all major currencies as it may affect attitude to risk globally.
Friday could end the week with a bang, we have revised GDP figures for the U.K which are expected to remain steady however any alteration to this might lead to a sharp reaction for Sterling followers. Friday afternoon we have a similar release for Canada coupled with some inflationary data which will both be key for CAD followers.
Transfer to carry out?
If you are one of my regular clients then do feel free to get in touch with me directly and I shall be more than happy to monitor the market for you over the week however do be aware that between 24th December and the end of the year we are in on all working days however may close the trading floor early if demand is low.
If you have not used me before yet have a currency transfer to carry out it may be prudent to consider your options and ensure that you have a proactive currency broker on your side. If you currently do not use a currency broker or you feel you could get a better price or level of service than you are currently getting then by all means feel free to email me directly and I will be happy to personally help you for any currency transfer. djw@currencies.co.uk and i look forward to hearing from you.
Pound Sterling Forecast End November / December – It is often the complacent who suffer the most…. (Jonathan)
Exchange rates move continuously for a variety of reasons. This can cause anyone considering a currency transfer headaches and happiness. An understanding of what exactly is driving your exchange rate is key to getting the best deal. Let us look briefly at some of the more common themes on the pound and some of the more popular pairs. It would be impossible (and boring if it didn’t concern you) to cover every aspect of every currency in one post so please feel free to contact me directly for more information on a particular topic or currency pair, even if it is not covered here.
GBPEUR The big news has been the agreement on Greece this week which has caused the Euro to find favour. The current sentiments for Europe are much more positive than they have been in recent months which is why the rate is now some 5 cents better for sellers than earlier in the summer. I have seen many Euro sellers entering the market this week to capitalise on these better levels. The outlook in Europe is still uncertain but with no new bad news to unsettle nerves, the Euro is stronger.
GBPUSD The rate has crept over 1.60 again which is a reflection of the better sentiments in Europe. The Dollar is a safe haven currency and will weaken when there is good news for the global economy as investors seek riskier shores. In times of uncertainty the USD will strengthen. I expect the USD will start to strengthen as no sign of a deal on the Fiscal Cliff continues. However this is still some weeks away and we could see the dollar weaken further before then as markets remain buoyant.
GBPAUD I have been writing recently of the likelihood that the Aussie will remain strong due to improvements in Chinese data. This is still the main reason for the strength of AUD but a report yesterday by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development) slashed the global growth forecasts. This coupled with a few fears over rising Unemployment in Australia has weakened the currency a touch.
Next week is the start of a new month and consequently new economic data which can move the market. Getting the best exchange rate is about being prepared for every eventuality as it is normally the complacent who suffer the most. Predicting 100% what will happen is impossible but our specialist service will help anyone considering a transfer with a really good price plus outline all the information to make an informed decision about when to enter the market.
The end of the month is usually a busy period as investors settle positions and sell off any surplus investments. You can often see some big unexpected moves on currency so don’t get caught out, register an interest with us and we can make sure you don’t miss out.
If you would like to learn more please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk, 01494 787 478, thank you.
