Tag Archives: bank of england

When is the Supreme Court case in the UK and how will this affect the pound?

The pending UK Supreme Court case in the UK is critical to the short term movements on sterling exchange rates and clients with a requirement to buy or sell the pound should be making plans around this. Expectations for the initial reaction to the decision are reasonably clear but once the decision is made we will then be faced with a whole new set of questions over the next direction for the Brexit vote. Markets have loosely priced in the expectation the previous decision will be upheld but there are no guarantees!

If the previous decision is upheld then the pound should rise. GBPEUR could hit 1.17-1.18, GBPUSD upper end would be 1.25, GBPAUD 1.70 and GBPNZD towards 1.80. The pound could easily fall up to 4% if the court case does not go the way markets have been predicting. There is a very strong chance we could be looking at rates on GBPEUR retesting 1.10-1.12 territory whilst on GBPUSD we could slip below 1.20. GBPAUD may drop below 1.60 and GBPNZD below 1.70.

The biggest problem is knowing when this case will be decided. With the Supreme Court reopening tomorrow from their recess period the news could come as early as tomorrow. I expect it will be between tomorrow and next week which gives clients looking to buy or sell sterling a small window of opportunity to plan in.

In order to maximise such an opportunity the best strategy in such a market is number one to be prepared and number two to understand your options. My order book is currently very high with ‘Limit’ and ‘Stop / Loss’ orders. A ‘Limit’ order allows you trade at a higher level whilst a ‘Stop / Loss’ order allows you to protect your rate should the market fall. In such an uncertain and potentially volatile market I feel the best way forward is to use a combination of the above tools to help limit your exposure and trade on any improvements.

If you have a transaction to consider and wish for some assistance with the timing and planning of any exchanges please feel free to contact me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk with an overview of your position and preferably a phone number so I can quickly contact you.

Thank you for reading this post and I look forward to answering any questions on the markets or the services we can provide.

Jonathan Watson

 

When shall I Trade? (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/EUR

I feel long term we will see Sterling rally against the Euro, I feel it is chronically undervalued at present. The only reason the pound is below 1.20 is due to the electorate’s decision to leave the EU. The key factor in the pound’s value is trade negotiations, which currently leaves the nations economy in uncertainty. The High Court Judgement as to whether the government will vote on the triggering of Article 50 is due to complete in early January and this will determine whether there is a hard or soft Brexit. A hard Brexit would weaken the pound substantially. If you have to buy Euros short term and wish to eliminate any risk from your trade it may be wise take advantage of current levels.

Medium to long term as trade negotiations become more apparent Sterling should gain strength. The Euro also has some serious underlying problems which could rear their head. Political uncertainty  caused by the emergence of right wing groups could cause weakness. Also we have Italian Banks bad loans in excess of €360bn, A debt crisis in Greece and shockingly low inflation. Any of these factors could severely weaken the Euro.

GBP/USD

Following the FED’s decision to hike rates and forward planning indicating there could be as many as three more. I think the US dollar has further ground to gain on Sterling. The Dow is finishing at record highs and economic data is very strong. If I had to buy Dollars I would be moving quickly.

If  you have a currency requirement it is wise to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board we can keeo you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

 

Could Sterling increase against the Euro if the US Federal Reserve raise interest rates? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have been trying to hit 1.20 recently and on one occasion following the news of the Italian referendum the Pound broke past the resistance level of 1.20 but the positive movement was rather short lived.

The Pound has been making strong gains vs the single currency since early October when the High Court challenge to Brexit was initially put in place.

With the US Federal Reserve due to meet tonight to discuss interest rates there is a 95% expectation that the central bank will increase interest rates.

The impact this may have on the foreign exchange markets could result in US Dollar strength which typically results in Euro weakness and this could provide clients buying Euros with Sterling the opportunity to possibly see GBPEUR rates break past 1.20 again.

UK inflation yesterday morning came out better than expected at 1.4% which was the highest level since October 2014 and this helped the Pound to make gains vs the Euro.

Tomorrow the Bank of England are due to meet and although there will be no chance of any change in interest rates any positive comments made by Bank of England governor Mark Carney could see Sterling go in an upwards direction.

I predicted last weekend that the Pound would have a strong week and so far my prediction has been accurate and I think the Fed’s decision tonight could see Sterling make gains against the Euro.

If you’re concerned about what is happening between Sterling and the Euro and need to buy or sell property in the Eurozone in the next few weeks or months it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I save you money when buying currency compared to using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like further information about the contracts available or would like a free quote then feel free to contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@curencies.co.uk

 

 

Will this week’s data releases help push the Pound even higher? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling has managed to hold on to the gains it made through November as the currency continues to trade at a 3 month high against the Euro, and also a 2 month high when paired with the US Dollar.

The recent boost within the Pounds value has been welcomed by those planning on exchanging Pounds for another foreign currency, as at the beginning of last month Sterling was trading around it’s lowest levels against the Euro by almost 5 years, and at it’s lowest levels against the Dollar in around 30 years.

The recent upward movement for the Pound has made large currency exchanges involving the Pound considerably cheaper, and I think that Pound sellers have a key decision to make when it comes to their transfer. For example the Pound could continue to strengthen and consolidate above 1.20, that level could also act as a ceiling and we could see the Pound struggle to breach that level before falling back into the mid to low teens.

One approach would be to book at least part of your currency transfer around the current levels, as this approach allows clients to take advantage of the current 3 month highs whilst leaving themselves open to booking the next part at a more advantageous level, should that favourable movement occur.

There are a couple of factors which could impact the Pound over the following weeks. The Supreme Court hearing came to an end on Friday of last week, and although the result isn’t expected to be released until the end of January, expectations are for the High Courts ruling to remain in place. Despite this consensus I think that if the Government is successful with their appeal, we can expect to see the Pound fall as the Brexit process will be more straightforward and therefore, likely to happen sooner.

There are some key data releases this week and later this morning which could affect the Pounds value, and readers of this blog can feel free to get in touch regarding the times and details of these potential market movers.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages.

Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also provide me with a telephone number to contact you on, or you can call in on 01494 787 478 and ask for reception to speak with Joe.

Sterling gains on positive UK trade data, will the bullish trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The latest set of UK economic data surprised investors today and as a result, the Pound has received a welcome boost across the board.

After a very good November the Pound fell off it’s highs against both the Euro and the US Dollar earlier this week, but the currency is regaining some of it’s lost value and approaching those highs once again which the GBP/EUR pair approaching 1.20 once again.

The Pound has recovered particularly well versus the Euro after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced yesterday that it will be extending its bond purchasing program as a form of quantitative easing.

The Pound gained off the back of this news mostly due to Euro weakness but today those gains have been boosted further. UK Trade is looking a lot healthier after data released today showed October’s visible trade balance dropped to -£9.7bn when many had expected to see it drop from -£13.8bn down to -£11.8bn.

This reduction is of course good news for the UK, and trade balance figures are often discussed in financial media after earlier this year it was announced that the pound had the highest deficit within the developed world.

Now that GBP/USD is trading above 1.25 and GBP/EUR is closing in on 1.20 once again it appears that the Pound is looking healthy around these levels after gaining a lot of ground in a short period of time.

If you’re planning on taking advantage of the recent gains by Sterling by converting the currency into another major currency, feel free to get in contact to discuss  exchange rates and timings.

You can contact me directly jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Sterling exchange rates enter December in good health, but will the Pound continue to climb? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is entering the new month in a much stronger position than it entered November, after the currency gained an impressive 4.5% against the Euro through last month as well as performing well against a number of other major currencies.

Yesterday afternoon the Pound spiked upward against the Euro, as did the US Dollar, after both UK GILT (bonds issued by the UK government) and US government issued bond yields both increased in anticipating of further quantitative easing from the European Central Bank, (ECB) and also expectations of an aggressive fiscal plan by the US President elect Donald Trump.

Whilst complicated the result was Sterling strength across the board.

People planning on converting Pounds into another major currency such as the US Dollar, the Euro or the Australian Dollar for example have been presented with a much more attractive opportunity than this time last month, due to the Pounds unexpected gains off the back of the unexpected election of Trump.

Personally, I think the Pound may gain further on the Euro as we enter December and the Italian Referendum this weekend may be the catalyst. If the Italian Prime Minister (Matteo Renzi) is unsuccessful in his plan to change the Italian constitution in order to reform the banking system in Italy, I think we could see further Euro weakness as soon as next week. Feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept updated on this topic.

Those in the process of buying property abroad or moving large amounts of money internationally have the chance to save thousands if we compare the Pounds value now compared with just a month ago, and with the help of a specialist currency exchange brokerage like ourselves we can help clients get even more for their money as our rates can improve on the banks offerings by between 1-4%.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in to speak with me over the phone on 01494 787 478, just ask reception for Joe if I don’t answer myself. 

 

The ‘Trump Train’ market surge fades but Sterling manages to hold on to it’s gains, but for how long? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has surged across the board through November for a number of reasons, with the main catalysts being the likely delay to invoking Article 50 and beginning the Brexit process, and Trumps election victory in the US boosting sentiment surrounding the UK economy.

Those planning on converting Pounds into another foreign currency have been dealt a good hand this month, as the Pound has gained clawed back quite alot of it’s losses since the Brexit vote.

This month alone the Pound has gained 5 cents vs the US Dollar and 7 cents vs the Euro. In monetary terms a £200,000 GBP to EUR currency exchange is now gaining an additional €15,000+ in the space of 30 days which just highlights the importance of timing large currency conversions.

As a specialist currency brokerage we’re here to monitor the currency markets on behalf of our clients, and in volatile trading conditions like we’ve seen this month our service can really save clients large amounts of money due to the assistance with timings and reacting to market movements.

There will be manufacturing and construction figures released later this week which could affect GBP exchange rates depending on their outcome, and if you are planning a currency exchange between the Pound and another major currency and would like to plan around these events, do get in touch regarding timings and exchange rates.

The Pound has so far held onto it’s gains made this month, but currencies do tend to fall quicker than they climb and if some ‘Hard Brexit’ related news is released there is a chance the Pound could lose some or even all of it’s recent gains.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. 

You can also call in and ask reception to speak with me (Joe) on 01494 787 478. 

Will the pound rise or fall in December?

The pound has had an amazing few weeks going from one of the world’s worst performing currencies to one of the world’s best performing currencies. Investors were bracing themselves for a dreadful finish to a bad year for the pound but now the outlook is a little rosier. Of course the performance of the pound will be interesting to you depending on which currency you are buying or selling against the pound. December has some very important global events alongside key news at home, all of which will shape sterling exchange rates. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound soon or in 2017 December is a key month to be making some plans ahead of!

EURO (GBPEUR) – The Italian Constitutional Referendum is on the 4th December and could easily see a big unwinding of Euro positions. This could give Euro buyers with pounds a nice early Christmas present! The Euro may weaken as political uncertainty in the region becomes a concern, the referendum is on constitutional reform but is turning into a vote on the popularity of Matteo Renzi the current Italian PM. On the 8th December the European Central Bank meet to discuss further QE (Quantitative Easing) measures which could also weaken the Euro.

December is shaping up to be a very volatile month for the Euro. The pound has just hit fresh 2 month highs against the Euro but will this last or could it go even go higher? For more information on this particularly uncertain pair please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk. We could hit over 1.20 so if you are looking to buy at 1.20 or more please let me know.

US Dollar (GBPUSD) – The fallout from Donald Trumps election victory continues mainly in emerging markets but the ascent of the US dollar seems almost unstoppable. One event that could easily half the strength of the US dollar is December 14th the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. With markets pricing in over 90% probability of the US raising their interest rate to 0.75% global markets will be bracing themselves for this important wide reaching event. Expect further US dollar strength but this might lead to unexpected swings on GBPEUR and GBPUSD and investors move funds in and out of the US dollar.

GBPUSD exchange rates have been some of the most volatile in 2016 moving over 30 cents between the high and the low. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound and US dollar then please contact me to discuss the market in depth and all of your options. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to get a further breakdown of the outlook and best available rates on this volatile pairing.

Jonathan Watson in action!

Jonathan Watson 

I Jonathan Watson have worked as a currency specialist for almost ten years helping business and private clients maximise their currency exchanges. I can offer a full overview of the market and highlight all the important events and your options to help limit your currency exposure. I would be delighted to hear from you and have a chat about our services and how we might help.

To contact Jonathan please email jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478. Jonathan has appeared on BBC News discussing the EU Referendum and has been quoted in the FT, The Times The Telegraph and many more. 

Buying rates for Euros and Australian Dollars testing new highs, but GBP/USD lagging behind (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has had a fantastic two weeks to say the least after what had been heavy drop after heavy drop on buying Euro and Dollar rates of exchange. We are now entering a period of stability following a stint where in two weeks the market has moved more than the last three months combined for GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD and GBP/USD.

Buying Euro rates in particular have been the main beneficiary from this recent movement, being hit by a Trump Presidency from two angles which explain the 7% plus gains since November 9th.

Due to the special relationship between the US Dollar and the Euro, a stronger Dollar tends to draw capital away from the Euro. Whilst Trump is a wildcard his very public support for a US interest rate hike in December is fueling heavy Dollar interest, with investors in the Euro diverting their attention to the other side of the Atlantic. The Euro thus deflates as disinterested parties go elsewhere.

Furthermore, the expectation of a change in the US stance of a hostile Obama to a supportive Trump for the UK leaving the European Union has also buoyed market confidence in a better result for the UK in upcoming negotiations.

Now that the Autumn statement has passed, with Hammond’s praise of the positive impact of the Bank of England’s interest rate cut and increase in monetary stimulus suggestive that further emergency stimulus is not necessary in the UK since the vote, the Pound can move forward at its gradual pace of improvement barring any political surprises.

Without much economic data out between now and the beginning of December when the cycle begins once again with a fresh look at November, buying Euro and Australian Dollar rates will likely continue to benefit from a stronger Pound.

Apart from the unknowable factor which is the Supreme Court’s decision over the role of Parliament in the Brexit to be decided on December 10th, red flags and flashing sirens are abound for anyone with a GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD, or GBP/USD requirement in the latter part of December.

Profit taking and protective trading will likely see the Pound undercut quite heavily as markets relieve themselves of riskier currencies ahead of the Christmas period when trading winds down. A more muted version of this actually happens every Friday, so feel free to have a look at rates on Friday afternoon to see if this materializes and get a better understanding of how markets are functioning at the moment.

In the meantime, Sterling buyers may be wise to move quite quickly if the time period for your transfer does not allow for you to wait for this latter December period.

Conversely Euro and Australian Dollar buyers may be wise to monitor market rates over the next few weeks, particularly in the run up to December 10th.

If you are planning a currency purchase involving the Pound, it is certainly worth your time contacting me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to order to explore the options open to you to seize any peaks which emerge on GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD and GBP/USD, and to safeguard your transfer from any unexpected turns in global politics and the financial world.

I offer my customers a proactive service to make sure you remain a well informed purchaser and avoid being ‘last to the party’ when attractive levels for buying or selling suddenly emerge. I also work for one of the UK’s leading currency exchange brokerages who provide highly competitive currency exchange rates.

I will answer your email as soon as I am able to since time can very regularly be of the essence when it comes to currency queries. Please feel free also to contact me 01494 787 478 during office hours (8:30-6pm) and ask the reception team to be put through to my line (Joshua).

 

Sterling exchange rates boosted after the Autumn Budget, will the Pound continue to strengthen? (Joseph Wright)

The current levels for converting Pounds into other major currencies are surprisingly attractive when we consider the outlook for the Pound just a few weeks ago.

I think that people planning on converting their Pounds into another major currency, for a property purchase for example, have been dealt a fortunate hand as the Pound hit a 2-month high yesterday on a trade weighted basis, whereas just a few weeks ago the pound was trading at over 5 year lows against the Euro and at over 30 year lows against the US Dollar.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is now trading closer to 1.20 than 1.10 after gaining 7 cents off the back of Donald Trump’s election victory. The UK economy, and therefore the Pound, has been boosted by the ‘Trump train’ after his warm words about the relationship between the UK and US in his campaign. Barack Obama had previously said the UK would be at the back of the queue on business deals whereas Trump said the opposite, and Trump also has a number of interests in the UK.

The gains for the Pound against the Euro specifically are extensive, making a €200,000 purchase £10,650 cheaper.

The Pound was boosted further yesterday afternoon after the Autumn Budget sprung no surprises. I do think that those planning on converting Pound into another major currency should watch the rates and news as the Pound could come crashing down quicker than it’s risen as is usually the case.

If you are planning a currency conversion involving the Pound, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in and ask reception to speak with me (Joe) on 01494 787 478.