Tag Archives: best GBP/EUR exchange rates

Why is the Pound losing value at the moment, and will it continue? (Joseph Wright)

Brexit jitters are continuing to weigh on the Pounds value, with the currency losing a substantial amount of value over the past week across the board of major currency pairs.

Currency markets were already weary of the Pounds future price movements as we await the outcome of the Supreme Courts impending decision on whether or no the UK Government requires parliamentary approval before beginning the Brexit.

These fears were exacerbated over the past weekend as a much talked about interview offered the marketplace an insight into the UK PM’s plans for the Brexit. UK Prime Minister, Theresa May alluded to prioritising the control of immigration, as opposed to focusing on retaining the UK’s access to the single market.

Moreover, May commented that the UK cannot keep ‘bits’ of EU membership and this comment has fueled the fire of bearishness towards the Pound at the moment.

It’s for these reasons that we’ve seen the Pound soften over the week, and the sell-off accelerated this afternoon after May announced that she will be giving another major speech on her Brexit plans on Tuesday of next week.

I personally think that the Supreme Court decision will have been announced by then, so there’s a possibility we could see a lot of volatility between GBP exchange rates between now and then.

Until then, I think that anyone with a currency exchange requirement involving the Pound should pay close attention to the Supreme Court decision. The likelihood is that if the Government is successful in their appeal we can expect to see the Pound fall further, as the Government plans on invoking Article 50 at the end of March and there polices generally lean towards a ‘Hard Brexit’.

On the other hand if they’re unsuccessful the general consensus is that the Pound could get a lift. Feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept up to date with the outcome of the Supreme Court’s decision, as of yet we have no definitive time as to when this announcement will be made.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also speak to me directly on the phone by calling 01494 787 478 and asking reception to speak with Joe.

When is the Supreme Court case in the UK and how will this affect the pound?

The pending UK Supreme Court case in the UK is critical to the short term movements on sterling exchange rates and clients with a requirement to buy or sell the pound should be making plans around this. Expectations for the initial reaction to the decision are reasonably clear but once the decision is made we will then be faced with a whole new set of questions over the next direction for the Brexit vote. Markets have loosely priced in the expectation the previous decision will be upheld but there are no guarantees!

If the previous decision is upheld then the pound should rise. GBPEUR could hit 1.17-1.18, GBPUSD upper end would be 1.25, GBPAUD 1.70 and GBPNZD towards 1.80. The pound could easily fall up to 4% if the court case does not go the way markets have been predicting. There is a very strong chance we could be looking at rates on GBPEUR retesting 1.10-1.12 territory whilst on GBPUSD we could slip below 1.20. GBPAUD may drop below 1.60 and GBPNZD below 1.70.

The biggest problem is knowing when this case will be decided. With the Supreme Court reopening tomorrow from their recess period the news could come as early as tomorrow. I expect it will be between tomorrow and next week which gives clients looking to buy or sell sterling a small window of opportunity to plan in.

In order to maximise such an opportunity the best strategy in such a market is number one to be prepared and number two to understand your options. My order book is currently very high with ‘Limit’ and ‘Stop / Loss’ orders. A ‘Limit’ order allows you trade at a higher level whilst a ‘Stop / Loss’ order allows you to protect your rate should the market fall. In such an uncertain and potentially volatile market I feel the best way forward is to use a combination of the above tools to help limit your exposure and trade on any improvements.

If you have a transaction to consider and wish for some assistance with the timing and planning of any exchanges please feel free to contact me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk with an overview of your position and preferably a phone number so I can quickly contact you.

Thank you for reading this post and I look forward to answering any questions on the markets or the services we can provide.

Jonathan Watson

 

Sterling continues to fall following Theresa May’s comments (Daniel Johnson)

Sterling has a rough start to the week

Following Theresa May’s comments this weekend, where she hinted toward a hard Brexit sterling has fallen heavily with GBP/EUR sitting in the 1.14s and GBP/USD in the 1.21s.  She stated during a Sky News interview that she would consider giving up free trade for control over immigration.

I think more important however will be the ruling in regards to the supreme court judgement on whether parliament will get to vote on the triggering of article 50. If parliament do get the vote it is probable there will be a soft brexit, with temporary trade deals in place while negotiations take place. This eventuality should cause the pound to rise.

If parliament do not get the vote a hard brexit becomes the probable outcome and this could result in trade negotiations being troublesome and elongated. Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK ambassador to the EU recently resigned  due to what he considers to be unrealistic estimations on how long brexit will take. The current target for a full exit from the EU is two years, Sir Ivan thinks it will be nearer ten.

I would expect the the supreme court ruling to come through between the 12th-17th January, keep your eyes on developments on the case as this could have major implications on the value of the pound.

UK data releases that could effect Sterling short term

Tomorrow will see the release of UK manufacturing data where I would expect to see an improvement which could cause some respite for the pound. GDP figures are also released on Wednesday and I would again expect a slight improvement. Please be aware however that any news from the supreme court judgement is likely to outweigh these data releases.

If you have a currency requirement I will happily assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will provide a comparison against your current provider and also formulate a trading strategy to suit your individual needs. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with a broker from Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over sixteen years with the highest credit rating and one which is also registered with the FCA. Please do get in touch by e-mailing me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading our blogs.

Will sterling rise or fall on the Supreme Court decision?

The pound is fairly stable and range bound at present as markets keenly await the next direction of the Brexit. We are all eagerly awaiting the next bits of news over the Supreme Court decision and it is this which will determine the more immediate direction on the currency pairing. If you have a transfer to consider involving sterling understanding what is happening and being ready to react is the best way to capitalise on this news. At the moment we do not know when the decision will be released and this is keeping the market nervously on its toes.

Essentially upholding the previous High Court decision should see the pound rally but I think the gains will be limited. My personal expectation is for this to lead to sterling gaining up to 2% against its counterparts. If the decision goes for the government sterling will fall because I believe markets have very much priced in ‘good news’ that the previous decision would be upheld. If it falls in this scenario sterling could lose up to 4% as it becomes apparent a hard Brexit is more likely again. Sterling might retest the kind of levels we saw back in October last year.

GBPEUR Focus

After the Supreme Court decision attention will still remain on the Brexit and any good news for sterling will be shortlived in my opinion. There will still be many unanswered questions and as the resignation of Sir Ivan rogers, the UK’s Ambassador to the EU shows there is scope for further political casualties. Attention towards the end of the quarter will focus on the likelihood of Theresa May triggering Article 50 plus the Dutch and French elections. I expect GBPEUR could trade between 1.12 – 1.23 depending on the various outcomes here. If you wish to trade at these levels and wish to be kept informed of developments please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPUSD Focus

The big news on the US dollar is the likelihood of further interest rate rises. A strong jobs report has given rise to expectation we could see further interest rate hikes soon and GBPUSD has dipped. I expect GBPUSD to trade between 1.14 and 1.25 in the coming weeks. As you can see I feel the US dollar will be strengthening.

If you have a currency transfer involving sterling and wish to optimise your position with some expert insight and information please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I work as a currency specialist and have appeared on BBC News discussing Brexit and the impact on the currency markets. I would be very happy to hear from you and answer any questions and help you with your situation.

Thank you for reading, I hope to hear from you soon.

Sterling remains under pressure despite positive data release, is this a sign of things to come? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has come under pressure today despite the UK economy posting some better than expected figures in an important sector of the UK economy.

After beginning the day negatively the Pound received a slight boost this morning as Services PMI data came out better than analysts had expected. The data showed that sentiment within the services sector is positive, which is important for the UK economy as the services sector amounts to more than two-thirds of the countries economic output.

In normal market conditions it wouldn’t be unusual to see the Pound spike upward off this news, and although it attempted to the currency is currency down against all major currency pairs with the exception of the US Dollar, which has dropped in value today also across the board.

Those concerned with the value of the Pound should pay close attention to the outcome of the Supreme Courts decision on whether or not the government needs parliamentary approval before beginning the Brexit process.

This topic appears to be the biggest mover of currency pairs involving the Pound and the Euro could also feel the effects of the decision. The outcome is scheduled to be released between the 12-17th of this month and I expect expectations of the decision to effect Sterling’s value between now and then.

Other than this, economic data could also weigh on Sterling’s value especially if it disappoints considering what happened today. Feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss any upcoming news releases and how they could effect your upcoming currency exchange requirement.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in touch with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in to speak with me on 01494 787 478, just ask reception for Joe. 

 

When shall I Trade? (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/EUR

I feel long term we will see Sterling rally against the Euro, I feel it is chronically undervalued at present. The only reason the pound is below 1.20 is due to the electorate’s decision to leave the EU. The key factor in the pound’s value is trade negotiations, which currently leaves the nations economy in uncertainty. The High Court Judgement as to whether the government will vote on the triggering of Article 50 is due to complete in early January and this will determine whether there is a hard or soft Brexit. A hard Brexit would weaken the pound substantially. If you have to buy Euros short term and wish to eliminate any risk from your trade it may be wise take advantage of current levels.

Medium to long term as trade negotiations become more apparent Sterling should gain strength. The Euro also has some serious underlying problems which could rear their head. Political uncertainty  caused by the emergence of right wing groups could cause weakness. Also we have Italian Banks bad loans in excess of €360bn, A debt crisis in Greece and shockingly low inflation. Any of these factors could severely weaken the Euro.

GBP/USD

Following the FED’s decision to hike rates and forward planning indicating there could be as many as three more. I think the US dollar has further ground to gain on Sterling. The Dow is finishing at record highs and economic data is very strong. If I had to buy Dollars I would be moving quickly.

If  you have a currency requirement it is wise to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board we can keeo you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

 

Rollercoaster day for Sterling points to heavy ceiling for buying Euro and Dollar exchange rates (Joshua Privett)

Today buying Euro rates breached fresh 5 month highs in addition to more attractive levels for Australian Dollar buyers following the historic interest rate decision last night across the Atlantic in the US.

This was only their second rise in interest rates in over a decade. In the world’s largest economy, there was certainly going to be financial ripples as a result.

The obvious and direct result was that for anyone holding Sterling the Dollar become more expensive following the rate hike announcement.

But why did the Euro and Austrlian Dollar take a bit of a dive?

The USD/EUR currency pairing is the most heavily traded in the world – frankly because they are the two most widely used currencies globally. So as a rule of thumb, due to the large amounts of transactions concentrated between the two, when one of the two currencies suddenly gets a large boost in demand, as we saw today, the other loses value through decreased demand. This is why GBP/EUR briefly breached 1.20 earlier today as a secondary effect of the hike.

The gains against the Australian Dollar similarly were due to a lower demand for AUD which sucked away some of its recent, and frankly over-inflated, value. The interest rate on the Australian Dollar is at record lows but still much higher than elsewhere at 1.5%, compared to the UK’s at 0.25% for example. However, it is traditionally seen as an unstable currency, so when you have a safe-haven currency which raises its base rate, investors like to opt for this safer option, and the sell-off of Aussies for US Dollars is why USD/AUD gained today, as well as GBP/AUD.

However, markets moved back sharply in the afternoon following this move, with GBP/EUR almost losing a full cent as an example.

It seems markets are worried the recent improvements on Sterling will not carry through the volatile end of year trading period. At the end of the year traders and companies wind down their positions in order to consolidate their profits in a stable currency to avoid coming back to their desks in January and finding outside forces have eaten away some of its value.

Of course the Pound is seen as anything but stable at the moment. So the Pound seems set to lose out to major safe havens such as the Dollar, Swiss Franc, and potentially the Euro, however, more exotic currencies should still see it hold its own.

As such anyone with a buying Euro and US Dollar requirement may be wise to move sooner rather than later to avoid the hefty amount of risk which should be piled onto Sterling in the very near term.

Sterling buyers, of course may consider the opposite and play the currency markets by ear as we edge closer to the Christmas period to try at catch the market at any peaks which emerge.

I am well positioned to help anyone with a Sterling based currency requirement manage their exposure to the markets in the run-up to the new year and beyond in order to maximise your currency return in this volatile marketplace. 

Contact me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the particulars of your transfer. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on an upcoming transfer.

You can also contact me on 01494 787 478, and simply as the reception team for Joshua (me) and they will put you through to my line.

 

US Interest Rates up by 0.25% (Daniel Johnson)

Last night saw the US interest rate decision. Janet Yellen the Head of the Federal Reserve indicated at the end of last year there would be as many as four rate hikes during 2016. None of which materialised, she has been branded with a very  cautious reputation. Although the FED is meant to act as a separate entity, I can’t help but think the FED’s caution was due to the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election.

Trump has been very vocal about his wish to raise rates and has gone as far as to threaten Yellen’s position. Rates went up by 0.25% as anticipated so there was little movement on the GBP/EUR. Yellen stated after the hike that there would be up to three hikes this year, this can be taken with a pinch of salt as with most forward guidance.

Many investors left the Euro for US dollar due to safety and of course an increase in return. The dollar rallied against the Euro, but as mentioned earlier there was no great shakes on GBP/EUR.

With all the uncertainty surrounding Brexit trade negotiations and 1.20 seeming to be a resistance barrier if I was buying Euros I would be tempted to take advantage of current levels.

The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If  you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

Will this week’s data releases help push the Pound even higher? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling has managed to hold on to the gains it made through November as the currency continues to trade at a 3 month high against the Euro, and also a 2 month high when paired with the US Dollar.

The recent boost within the Pounds value has been welcomed by those planning on exchanging Pounds for another foreign currency, as at the beginning of last month Sterling was trading around it’s lowest levels against the Euro by almost 5 years, and at it’s lowest levels against the Dollar in around 30 years.

The recent upward movement for the Pound has made large currency exchanges involving the Pound considerably cheaper, and I think that Pound sellers have a key decision to make when it comes to their transfer. For example the Pound could continue to strengthen and consolidate above 1.20, that level could also act as a ceiling and we could see the Pound struggle to breach that level before falling back into the mid to low teens.

One approach would be to book at least part of your currency transfer around the current levels, as this approach allows clients to take advantage of the current 3 month highs whilst leaving themselves open to booking the next part at a more advantageous level, should that favourable movement occur.

There are a couple of factors which could impact the Pound over the following weeks. The Supreme Court hearing came to an end on Friday of last week, and although the result isn’t expected to be released until the end of January, expectations are for the High Courts ruling to remain in place. Despite this consensus I think that if the Government is successful with their appeal, we can expect to see the Pound fall as the Brexit process will be more straightforward and therefore, likely to happen sooner.

There are some key data releases this week and later this morning which could affect the Pounds value, and readers of this blog can feel free to get in touch regarding the times and details of these potential market movers.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages.

Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also provide me with a telephone number to contact you on, or you can call in on 01494 787 478 and ask for reception to speak with Joe.

Buying Euro rates soar whilst GBP/USD and GBP/AUD remain relatively stagnant (Joshua Privett)

Buying Euro rates of exchange have enjoyed a further boost following the long (to say the least) awaited announcement of further emergency stimulus in the Eurozone to keep growth on track. However, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD have remained relatively stagnant following the Pound’s losses earlier this week.

The Pound has come under renewed pressure this week as the Supreme Court decision over Parliament’s involvement in the Brexit negotiation was debated and fleshed out in what was, on occasion, quite gripping television.

Previously the Judicial Court had ruled in the favour of Parliament being involved in the invoking of Article 50 as a voting process. The frenzy of investors flowing into Sterling, which raised its value through increased demand. was attributed to the high expectation that Parliament’s involvement would yield a longer time-frame for the UK to enact a Brexit, alongside the likelihood that MP’s would push to retain close economic ties with the EU.

This has now been called into question on two fronts. Firstly, MP’s have cut a deal with Theresa May to push through a mandate that Parliament will support the Government’s deadline to enact Article 50 by the previously agreed date of March 2017. In return, May will be more forthright about her plans for her upcoming negotiations with the EU which were announced on Wednesday.

Secondly, the appeal with the Supreme Court is not simply a re-hashing of the previous court case. The Government is using more complicated lines of argument, including precedent from Parliament’s actions, to suggest that the Government can act unilaterally without heavy Parliamentary oversight.

Whilst it is debatable how much this is landing with the judges, markets have certainly been made nervous that even though the Government is appealing, they have a chance of winning. Whilst this is not a murder trail with sudden new evidence coming to light, with little precedence for such a decision in the past, the uncertainty about which way the Supreme Court may swing is high.

This uncertainty is what has caused Sterling to lose some of its recent strength, it is simply a gift for anyone with a GBP/EUR interest that this has coincided with news of further financial stimulus in the Eurozone to reverse some of these losses. US Dollar and Australian Dollar buyers are unfortunately not so lucky.

Moving forward the US interest rate decision on Wednesday next week will likely provide a further boon for Euro buyers (due to the special relationship between USD/EUR) and additional woes for US Dollar buyers.

In the medium term however, the Pound is expected to have its rally against all major currencies dampened further by year-end profit taking which is set to take place in the latter part of December, so whilst US Dollar and AUD buyers may need to move with greater urgency, Euro buyers may see a ‘sweet spot’ emerging on GBP/EUR over the next week or so.

In these instances it is best to be in a position to move fairly quickly in case any tempting opportunities emerge, and the well informed purchaser will certainly have an advantage to avoid being ‘last to the party’ and being forced to accept a rate of exchange below any premium which is reached.

I am in a position to offer a proactive service to help my customers in timing their transfers, particularly during these volatile periods, in order to secure desirable exchange rates. I work for one of the UK’s leading brokerages with the average tenure of our dealer’s being in excess of 8 years in this job – longer than most companies in their entirety – so I am ideally placed to secure the most competitive rates and have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere for GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD. Simply contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk and I will respond as soon as I am able.

Similarly if you are looking to be buying Sterling, as my article points out there are likely to be further opportunities for you later in the month with a cheaper Pound, so you can contact me to discuss the options open to you to monitor the markets and secure a desired exchange rate.