Tag Archives: Currency Exchange
GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD exchange rate forecasts. Get help to maximise your currency exchange (Michael Vaughan)
As expected the Bank of England (BofE) decided to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5% and decided against extending its Quantitative Easing (QE) programme.
This outcome was very much forecast and the market did very little as a result as many analysts expect little to come from the BofE until new governor Mark Carney takes over from Mervyn King in July. Following the release the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) released its forecast for GDP for the last three months to include April, the figures showed a stronger than expected level of 0.8% continuing the recent positive tones coming from the UK, something that could lead to sterling strength against a number of major currencies.
Sterling exchange rates have shown a marked improvement against the single currency since the year low of 1.1370 in March. Since this time the market has peaked at 1.19 (a shift of 4.5%) but has now remained range bound between 1.1750-1.1850 since the start of May. But what now for GBP/EUR?
For me I believe the pound will begin to find further support and may break through the 1.20 barrier heading into June, however I believe when Mr Carney takes over his reign as the head of the Central Bank then I believe he will look to impose himself immediately and look to extend QE to help boost the UK economy further. Should we see this then I would expect Sterling exchange rates to fall back towards the 1.18 territory as a result. For this reason anyone looking to buy Euros I feel you may get better value in the weeks to come but those selling may wish to consider their options.
GBP/USD Exchange Rates
As against the Euro, sterling has seen a mini-recovery against the greenback rallying from the year low of 1.489 in March to 1.559 earlier this week. This again represents a 4.5% shift in less than two months and to me represents a strong buy opportunity.
For me I feel GBP/USD is reaching a peak and would expect levels to fall back towards the 1.52/53 level as again the pound is likely to come under threat from future expectations regarding QE. I also feel it is a matter of time before problems in Europe re-surface and the major benefactor is likely to be the USD.
For those looking at GBP/USD in the coming days watch out for a speech from Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Ben Bernanke this afternoon at 13:30 – positive tones from Bernanke are likely to lend support to the US dollar this afternoon.
Has the Aussie bubble burst?
In the last month the pound has rallied close to 9 cents against the AUD following weaker sentiment from China, and the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates earlier this week. This is creating some great opportunities for AUD buyers a trend that may continue.
For anyone selling AUD I would still urge you to take advantage of rates that are historically still very favourable. The average trade price for GBP/AUD for the last year sits around 1.54, so with levels currently at 1.52 you are still ahead of the game. For me the current trend and sentiment from Australia is a concern and I would expect rates to move towards 1.55 as I feel the central bank is still concerned about the strength of the Aussie and the impact this is having on the value of Australian exports. I would not be surprised to see another interest rate cut within the next 3 months, something that could devalue the AUD further.
Should you have an upcoming money exchange to arrange and you would like more information on the currency service we provide please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email me (Mike) at email@example.com
Cable prices (GBPUSD) have remained fairly flat over the last few trading sessions but expect some movement over the next 36 hours. The reason behind this is that there is a big expectation that the FED will announces additional Quantitative Easing into the US economy at their next meeting tomorrow. In my opinion it is almost certain that FED will announce that they will once again start to buy Treasuries outright, which is a different program compared to Operation Twist which ends later this month. The figures are scary, the next round is expected to be $45 billion which will make the total spent by the US in these programs to $4 trillion.
So what will happen to the USD?
Well due to this announcement being wildly expected I would expect little change in rates in the run up to the meeting. In fact if they come out as expected I would not expect much change after. However the risk is that if they release a different figure this will be priced into the market very quickly, moving rates within a few minutes. It is this movement that puts everything from house purchases to services costs at risk of costing thousands more. I am not a risk taker personally so if I was in the markets at the moment I would limit my exposure using a limit or stop loss order. This puts in automatic buying orders if the rates move to a target that you set and as a result limit your exposure in the market. Generally if I was a dollar buyer anything towards 1.61 would be a buy, if I was a seller, anything towards 1.60 would be a sell.
If you would like more information specific to your situation feel free to contact us, we can put together a personal strategy for you dependant on your risk appetite and time frames. PLUS we have won a number of awards for both our service and our rates of exchange so you can feel comfortable that we will be saving you money on the exchange. Simply put if this was not the case we would not be in business.
In Europe the main news has been coming out of Italy over the last 48 hours. Speculation built and was then confirmed by the government that the Italian Prime Minister will resign following the 2013 budget next year. This weakened the market as he has been seen as a bright light and bit of a savour for what was a struggling country close to leaving the euro earlier this year. This is all before more data from Germany which is a survey of investor confidence, its forecasted to show a negative figure for a seventh-month in a row. All very important before their next meeting on Wed-Thur when we will hear more from them about growth forecasts and concerns that European interest rates could fall early next year.
All very concerning for the strength of the Euro that had been forecasted to strengthen in the run up to Christmas, this has now changed with a majority of investors expecting it to fall in the run up to 2013. So buyers keep riding and sellers move quickly would be my general thought. Of course timing a trade can make a big difference in itself. Yesterday rates moved by over 0.5% so timing only yesterday to sell €200,000 could have given you an extra £800. Here we can be your eyes and ears on the market providing a proactive service. These blogs have the aim to be informative and forward looking for your information but if you are looking to trade currency in the currency market and want to achieve the best price we can be a lot more useful. Contact us on the normal number or via email at firstname.lastname@example.org for more information.
I hope this continues to help you.
Sterling given a slight boost following UK retail sales survey but still jittery in the wake of Hurricane Sandy (Mike Vaughan)
Sterling exchange rates have been given a slight boost today following a survey that showed better than expected retail sales in October which have improved chances of a sustained economic recovery in the UK. This positive data follows on from the much better than expected GDP data released in the UK last Thursday which showed the UK is officially out of recession posting 1% gains and beating the 0.6% forecasts. The sceptics out there will say that these figures have been grossly over inflated following the London 2012 Olympics and I believe these figures could well be revised down in the months to come, however it clearly indicates the UK is on the right track and as a result I can see a drive in the pounds favour against a number of currencies in the run up to Christmas – as long as the Bank of England decides against extending Quantitative Easing (QE) next week!
Will QE in the UK happen?
If you had asked me this question before last Thursday then my answer would have been a certain ‘yes’ – however last Thursdays impressive GDP data has thrown somewhat of a curve ball to the Bank of England and I am now sitting on the fence as far as this one goes. I do feel the prospect of future QE is still in the minds of the monetary policy committee however I believe this decision will now be delayed until the New Year as they digest the recent positive results and will see how the Christmas period develops. For this reason I believe the pound is in a reasonably strong position and I would see a move towards 1.26/27 for GBP/EUR, as for GBP/USD – this is somewhat of an unknown as the cleanup operation from Hurricane Sandy begins.
As my colleague Daniel discussed in his post below, the outcome of a natural disaster is somewhat of an unknown quantity as far as the money markets is concerned. First and foremost lets hope that Sandy does not prove as destructive as many people expect, however as the New York Stock Exchange is closed for the second day running, the first time in over 100 years that weather has caused the closure of the US markets for two straight days, tomorrow will prove a very interesting day as the market digests the destruction and the cost to the US economy of the cleanup operation.
Should you have an upcoming currency transfer tomorrow could be a very volatile day for all major currencies and I would certainly suggest keeping in contact with your broker should you have a position to arrange in the short term. The impact of Hurricane Sandy could move the markets in either direction but I would certainly expect an initial sell off for the USD dollar and would see GBP/USD moving toward 1.62, however a drive may actually be seen back in the USD’s favour longer term as it will still always tend to benefit in times of uncertainty, this may also mean a sell off for some riskier currencies such as the Euro, AUD, NZD and ZAR and you may find some good buying opportunities for a number of these currencies.
I work for one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokers helping thousands of clients gain access to various contracts to help maximise their currency exchange. Through trading with us you know you have access to highly competitive commercial rates of exchange and your funds are secure. As a regulated industry (we are regulated as a payment institute with the FSA and a money service business under the HMRC) each individual and business client can be safe in the knowledge that when trading with currencies.co.uk your are getting the best rate of exchange and service to match. To find out more on the process and to discuss my current market views and how these may affect your particular exchange then please contact Mike on 01494 787478 or email email@example.com
Euro rates have climbed for the last 2 trading sessions as data from the UK improves and Europe continues its August month of silence. This silence however is expected to break next Tuesday when we have the Europeans tell us their GDP figures for the last quarter. Expectations are already the fact that they will show an improvement, even with all the bad news recently about Europe and the risk that France could re-enter a recession. This is because it is for the last quarter not the coming quarter. As a result I would be surprised to see rates stay as high on the day.
Yes the Europeans are releasing bad information currently for last month and this as a result will hurt future GDP figures so euro weakness is expected in 3-6 months’ time but in the short term I would be very wary if I wanted to complete a GBPEUR trade, whether that be for a completion of a property in the sun or a business invoice.
Other topics to be aware of for a 6 month forecast, up to the end of the year is that it is in the UK’s interest to have a weak pound. This is as a key policy for growth is from exports which are very unattractive with the current strength of the pound.
So when do I buy euros
- If I was buying within the next 7 days I would consider moving on Tuesday morning.
- If I was buying within the next 2-3 months I would be very wary, I would not be surprised to see GBPEUR down at 1.23 over this time.
- If I was buying by the end of the year again I would be wary, happy that it was going to climb but I would be ready to move quickly i.e. use a FORWARD CONTRACT
I’m selling euros, when shall I sell?
- If within the next week I would wait till Wednesday and see what happens
- If within the next 3 months I would personally move in the near future on this expected news.
- If we I had until the end of the year I again would be poised to move with a FORWARD CONTRACT.
As you can tell the general theme is making sure you are ready to move PLUS using the right provider to get you the best price. These are two areas of both focus and passion here at Foreign currency Direct PLC, We have won a number of industry specific awards in both cases for exchange rates and service so if you have a currency exchange to make I am 100% sure we are in a position to help.
End of sales speech, but really what have you got to lose other than a 2 minutes conversation that could realistically save you £1,000’s?
Hopefully you find these blogs of use – For more information or to make sure you are getting the best exchange rate either call us today on 01494 787 478 and ask for myself STEVE EAKINS, or contact me directly via my email HSE@Currencies.co.uk
Sterling exchange rates fell to a one month low against the Euro on Tuesday and rates have now fallen 2.25% in just over a week (a difference of €5,600 on a £200k money transfer). This shows how important itis to keep in close contact with your currency broker as the money markets are notoriously volatile – but why has the Euro strengthened?
Many may be a little confused as to why the Euro has strengthened with some expecting London 2012 to have given a much needed boost to the UK (of course this may well do in weeks to come) however short term the prospects within the UK are still looking bleak. Further indications of this were shown as the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research a well-respected think tank) released their latest GDP estimate. Historically these estimates are very accurate and again it was to show a -0.2% contraction. This, along with Mario Draghi’s (the head of the ECB) confirming just last week he would do ‘whatever it takes to support the euro’ has led to the recent moves and a drive in favour of the Euro.
The fact the pound is still trading at close to a four year high against the Euro means Euro buyers shouldn’t be too disheartened and with levels still above 1.25 GBP/EUR this still represents a good buy opportunity in my opinion. However if you are looking to secure Euros in the coming days then watch out for the Bank of England’s inflation report due for release today as the UKs growth forecast is expected to be cut to no growth for 2012 compared with 2% predicted a year ago.
The report (released at 10:30 BST) will give clear insight into the Banks thoughts and projections and may hint at its next moves in relation to monetary policy. Rumours have been growing that the BofE may consider cutting interest rates from the already record lows of 0.5% – good news for your mortgage but potentially bad news for the pound. Historically a rate cut reduces the demand for a currency and hence the price falls, therefore any indication of this may lead to a continuation of the recent trend and a move towards 1.24.
To discuss your options and the many different contracts we can offer, including the use of a forward contract (proving very popular in the current climate) where for a nominal deposit your rate can be fixed and guaranteed for up to one
year in advance.
Best exchange rates for cable
GBP/USD exchange rates or commonly known as cable (derived from the transatlantic cable linking the UK and US enabling messages with currency prices to be transmitted between the London and New York exchanges) has remained range bound between 1.55 – 1.57 the past week, a trend I feel may well continue. Again todays Bank of England inflation report could hit the pound and a move towards 1.55 seen if more QE or a rate cut is discussed, however overnight we had a speech from the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. In the press conference he gave little insight as to whether further QE would be implemented and as a result this morning we have seen the dollar strengthen already.
Canadian dollar exchange rates, as with many currencies, have recently been strengthening against the pound. We are currently sitting at 1.56, just 2 cents shy of the 52 week high. Recently the loonie (named after the common loon, a bird which is well known in Canada) has been closely tracking the moves of the USD and the two (USD/CAD) are currently sitting just shy of parity. With the US being Canada’s largest trade partner any moves from the US can directly impact the CAD and with Bernanke’s speech painting a mixed outlook for the US economy this may cause a slight weakening of the CAD in the coming weeks. For anyone with a shorter term requirement we have Canadian unemployment figures released on= Thursday. Figures are expected to show a small increase and this may create a small window of opportunity for CAD buyers, contact your broker to make secure you secure the best exchange for your dollars.
What now for the AUD?
The Aussie is continuing its assault on the currency markets just shy of reaching record highs against the pound and euro and with little signs of stopping. Should you need to buy AUD watch out for Australian unemployment figures on Thursday. As with Canada, figures are expected to show unemployment rising and therefore could create a short term buy opportunity for those in a position to take advantage.
To discuss my opinions and any upcoming currency transfer you may have then please contact Mike on firstname.lastname@example.org or call 01494 787478. As a specialist curency broker we have a number of tools available to maximise your currency exchange and in this volaitile market it is important to have up do date market insight and knowledge to maximise your currency exchange.
Over this week the GBPEUR exchange rates have been very volatile, moving by nearly 3 cents in 5 days. Regular readers will be aware that is has been down to speculation that the European Central Bank would change banking policy for the better, and help the Eurozone out of problems. However this seems to have been just a political ploy as nothing significant was announced and as a result the gains the euro had seen evaporated over a few minutes.
So what can we do can we do to help?
All the authors of www.eurorateforecast.com www.poundsterlingforecast.com and http://www.gbpeuroforecast.co.uk/ work alongside me at a company called Foreign Currency Direct PLC and we have been helping people move money internationally for over 12 years. We have won a number of awards for both our exchange rate and our service, quite simply put, if we could not save our clients’ money against the banks we would not be in business. If you need to move funds and want to make sure you are both getting the best exchange rates and want help to try and time your exchange, we can help.
I have helps two clients that contacted me this week after reading my blog on Monday. In both occasions they were looking to sell euros and buying pounds. One of which had all the funds available and the other who didn’t was decided to use a Forward contract. In both situations it was decided to move on the expectation of change yesterday rather than waiting for the release which seems to have been the correct decision. Both saved over 2 cents compared to when they first contacted me, plus if we had waited any longer it could have cost them a lot more. At the time we worked out that one saved nearly £8,000 and the other £2,500, or 2%.
These are normal clients and situation, we are helping people do this every day of the week. If this sounds like something you might be interested in feel free to contact us with no obligation so we can introduce ourselves a little more formally. Either call us on 0044 (0) 1494 787 478 and ask for me Steve Eakins or email me at email@example.com
Generally sterling has been gaining this week against most currencies, as regular readers will be aware, this is due to investors using the Pound as a safe haven for their cash. However GDP estimates fell yet again his week, June’s NIESR GDP forecasts fell back to -0.2% from +0.1% in May. This is now the fifth month this year, (out of six readings,) that has shown that the UK economy has contracted.
The Bank of England is well aware of the struggle which is why additional Quantitative Easing (QE) was announced last week, increasing the total target to £375 billion! Still, loose monetary policy seems to have proven ineffective around the globe and as a result I personally would not be surprised to see further QE being announced in the future. (QE is the printing of money, the theory is it makes banks lend more which increases growth, however as more money is created it value falls, normally QE weakens a currency.)
This is more of a long term worry for clients, in the shorter term I personally would not be surprsied to see GBPEUR climb further. So good news for buyer, but why?
Well this week has already been a busy week for the Euro as Financial ministers meet in Brussells for a 2 days meeting. The big news was that covered in yesterdays blog that Spain is receiving a “banking bailout,” but in my optition they are joinging the majority now that have had a bailout; Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyrpus. That is why we are where we are at a near 4 year high. The reason why I think there is more to come is due to comments make from italy. Their prime minister said that he would be open to also receive a support package to lower the countries borrowing. If this was confirmed I would think GBPEUR rates could push up to 1.30!!!!!!!
If you are in a position reading these blogs looking for the time to trade, I think it is very close! Now is the time to contact us if you need assistance…. Contact me personally by emailing me at firstname.lastname@example.org I look forward to hearing from you.