Tag Archives: currency

Sterling is now trading around it’s lowest levels of the year, will it recover or get worse? (Joseph Wright)

We’re coming to an important time for Sterling exchange rates with  52 week lows either getting close to being breached, or actually being breached as GBP/EUR was during today’s trading session.

1.1542 was the previous 52 week low but today that figure has fallen to 1.1489, which is important for Sterling sellers to be aware of as at the moment the Pound is not putting up much of a fight when these levels are reached, which could indicate that further falls may be likely.

The Pound is currently trading at a 31 year low vs the US Dollar, but with regards to the Euro it is just at a 3 year low which is why I think the Pound has further to fall against the Euro than the US Dollar, as we’re not in uncharted territory when it comes to GBP/EUR exchange rates.

The falls in the Pound can be attributed to a number of things but what’s most likely driving the current fall, is the BoE’s most recent Quantitative Easing program, whereby £80bn more than expected will enter the economy as the Government buys up UK debt in an attempt to weather the ‘Brexit’ storm. The plans to make this substantial increase in QE were announced at the same time as the BoE’s decision to cut interest rates, and since then the Pound has been falling across the board.

Now that news is being released outlining how the UK economy is performing in it’s ‘post-brexit’ environment I envision further falls for the currency, as investors will be particularity sensitive to negative news out of the UK at the moment, for obvious reasons.

Major events to look out for this week are Tuesdays CPI figures which will offer us an idea of the movement within the cost of living in the UK. Wednesday’s unemployment data may also create volatility within exchange rates so do get in touch if you would like to discuss how these news releases can effect your upcoming currency conversion.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy or sell a foreign currency it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk  in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call in and ask reception for Joseph on 01494 787 478. 

 

 

Will the pound recover? (Dayle Littlejohn)

Another week passes and the pound continues to struggle against its counterparts. GBPUSD floats at a 30 year low and GBPEUR at a 3 year low. Looking ahead its difficult to see how the pound could improve against the major currencies. We have had a few post ‘Brexit’ economic data releases and they have shown a major decline, one to note is Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

In addition the Bank of England have cut interest rates to 0.25% in line with current market conditions and made the decision to buy Government bonds in the form of Quantitative Easing. Furthermore the Governor Mark Carney has stated a future cut to 0% could occur if the UK economy continues to struggle.

It seems like its going to be a testing period for people purchasing a foreign currency HOWEVER if you are selling a foreign currency to buy pounds you are in a fantastic position compared to 3 months ago. For example if you trade €200,000 into sterling today compared to before the EU referendum, you will now receive an extra £20,000!!!

Its a quiet day on the markets today for the UK with limited economic data releases. The Eurozone will release their latest GDP numbers at 10am and the US are set to release their retail sales numbers at 1.30. I expect the pound could lose value against the euro today however make gains against the dollar as the retail sales figures are set to show a decline.

My area of expertise is property purchases and sales. Therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and how we can save you as much money as possible. Feel free to email me the currency pair you are trading (GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively please fill in the form below and I will be in touch within 20 minutes.

Make sure you get the most on your foreign exchange – Take a few moments to get a free, no obligation comparison with us (Daniel Wright)

Over the past 6 years we have helped countless readers get a better rate of exchange than they are being offered elsewhere for their business transactions, property purchases/sales, car purchases, overseas weddings, wages or just simply their living expenses.

During the current economic climate it is important to make sure that you are getting the most out of your money and with currency exchange it really is no different.

We have seen an increase in clients contacting us that have been using the same broker for many years assuming that they are still getting a fantastic rate of exchange. Whilst that may be true with some, many actually found that when they compared with us we could actually get them much better and that their rate had slowly got worse year on year much the same as if they did not change their car insurance or electricity supplier.

We also have a lot of property buyers or sellers who come to us that have been referred a broker by their estate agent…. This also more often than not means that you will not be getting the most for your money and the agent generally is pushing you to use their broker because most will get paid a commission for passing over their client. If a brokerage has to pay out a commission then they cannot afford to give the client the very top rate so you end up losing out.

If you are in any of these positions it is important to realise that here at Pound Sterling Forecast we also can help with currency exchanges too, and generally at better rates than elsewhere. We all work for a huge independent brokerage based in the U.K and have been helping clients all over the world for 17 years now.

It is well worth taking two minutes out of your day to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk for an honest opinion and to see if we can actually get you a better deal. even saving half a percent on a £200,000 exchange makes it £1000 cheaper for you so it is well worth getting in touch. You can also fill in the form below.

 

European bank stress tests out tonight…. Watch this space!! (Daniel Wright)

Tonight we have a fairly important night for all banks in Europe as the latest banking stress tests are released.

What I find a little concerning is that the results of these stress tests are not being released until outside of trading hours at 9pm, this may be because this is when they are ready or more like that we may hear some fairly interesting news from them.

It is very rare that an economic data release from Europe comes out late on a Friday night and I feel that the reason they are doing this may be that they have some bad news to bring to the market and they do not want investors and speculators to react on it straight away.

By releasing data late at night on a Friday this gives ample time for statements to be released afterwards to settle the markets and two days for investors and speculators to calm down before the market sees large knee jerk reactions.

It is fairly common knowledge that banks in a number of areas are in quite a lot of trouble, most notably the Italian banks at present. Should the stress tests back this theory up then the Euro may find trouble and be down on Monday morning.

If you are in the position where you have a large Euro transaction to carry out then it may be prudent to keep an eye on the rates when the Asian markets open on Sunday night.

To be honest, these results may impact global attitude to risk so all major currencies may see volatility so it is key that you are on the ball and ready to react as your currency exchange may become thousands of Pounds cheaper or more expensive very quickly.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we do not only write up to date and important market information for you but we all work for one of the largest currency brokerages in the U.K so can also help you with your currency transfer. If you have a transaction to carry out involving buying or selling the Pound then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) the owner and creator of this site and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss your requirements. You can email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to speaking with you.

 

GBPEUR short term forecast (Dayle Littlejohn)

Since the UK public voted to leave the European Union, GBPEUR exchange rates have plummeted. Presently a €200,000 purchase is now costing an extra £14,000.

Pre Referendum UK GDP numbers are set to be released Wednesday morning. The numbers are set to show a slight improvement which should help sterling’s position, good news for euro buyers.

Eurozone GDP and Consumer Price index numbers are to be released Friday morning. The prediction for GDP is for a slight decline. However the Consumer Price Index numbers I believe will show a slight improvement due to the amount of quantitative easing the ECB is pumping into the European economy. Therefore I believe both data releases will counter act one another.

Looking to next week the UK release their latest interest rate decision. This has been a hot topic since the referendum vote and many leading economists believe a cut is just around the corner. If you have euros to buy in the next 3 months I would purchase before August 4th, if you are selling euros I would hold off and see how the Bank of England plan to act in regards to monetary policy.

The currency company I work for enables me to buy and sell pounds at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. If you are buying or selling pounds this year feel free to send me the currency pair (if you are not trading GBPEUR) and the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk.

Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn

 

Where next for the pound? (Dayle Littlejohn)

Since the UK public decided a ‘Brexit’ is the way forward for Britain GBPEUR and GBPUSD exchange rate have fallen 15 and 21 cents respectively. In figures this means a 200,000 euro and US dollar purchase is now approximately £20,000 and £22,000 more expensive and in my opinion it could get worse.

The golden question my clients are asking ‘is how could the pounds value fall?’ The UK’s interest rate decision next Thursday will give a clear indication into how the Bank of England plan to act, in order to combat a plummeting pound and an unstable market place. Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has eluded to a cut by 0.25% as early as next week.

However I believe this will be a premature move and actually he will put it off for at least another month. Nevertheless I expect further sterling weakness next Thursday.

Looking further ahead (medium term), early September the Conservative party will vote to decide the next Prime Minister. Once we have some certainty all eyes will turn to the PM and if they will start the ball rolling with Article50.

If the bookies favorite Theresa May is elected I feel their could be further negotiations with EU leaders before any decision is made in regards to Article50. Either way the volatility surrounding Article50 and the UKs future path will put further pressure on sterling and therefore further falls are expected.

The currency company I work for enables me to buy and sell pounds at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. If you are buying or selling pounds this year feel free to send me the currency pair you are trading (GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn

 

How far can the pound fall?

The pound has actually made some very small gains today but the outlook remains grim in my opinion. Despite the markets bouncing off the bottom today I do not think there is going to be a huge amount to be cheerful about and the rally of this morning quickly halted. The UK has no Prime Minister, the EU say there will be no special deal for the UK and business confidence and investment is down. There is a harsh choice for the next PM will it be abandoning free movement of people or retaining access to the single markets. According to the EU we cannot have both! If you are considering a currency exchange (£10,000 over only bank to bank exchanges please) please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to keep up with the latest news on how the pound is performing.

How much lower will GBPUSD drop?

The problem on this pair is the US Election is not far away which is bound to lead to uncertainty on the exchange rate. The prospect of a Trump Presidency has in my mind not been properly factored into the dollar. The Brexit vote also makes a US Interest rate hike less likely which I feel is not being reflected on the pair. I expect this rate to trade between 1.30 – 1.40 until August before moving back to 1.40-1.50 August to September. From there the picture is less clear but a move back above 1.50 could not be ruled out. If you have any USD transfers to consider the USD is almost at a 30 year high against the pound. To understand the latest movements please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPEUR hit 1.25?

For Euro buyers this is the question I am being asked most. Well I think Greek concerns and worries may resurface in the next few months and a top of 1.25 is possible, the negative impact of Brexit is also hurting the Euro. But I think sterling will be the main loser and would call lows in the 1.10-1.15 range up to September. From there much will depend on how Brexit negotiations but I think the pound will remain weak until we have certainty. If you have any Euro transfers on amounts above £10,000 (eg property sale of business transfer) please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information on securing the best GBPEUR and EURGBP exchange rates.

Brexit may well not prove to be too bad in the long run but it is clear to me the impact on sterling exchange rates still has much further to run, we still know very little about what to expect next. Any signs of an interest rate cut or further Quantitative Easing could easily send the pound lower and I would be most worried about this prospect towards the end of this year or early next.

Sterling is at multi year lows against GBPAUD, GBPCAD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF and GBPZAR..  Make sure you don’t miss out..

  This aware winning blog has enabled tens of thousands of people globally to save money on their currency exchanges through helpful, friendly knowledgeable information from experienced currency brokers. As one of the Chief contributors here I would be delighted to hear from any of you wish for information at this important historic time for the pounds. An email will only take you a minute and the savings on offer could be thousands, what have you to lose. If you have a currency exchange to consider and would like to learn the latest exchange rate forecast please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

Sterling exchange rates are struggling for direction, where next for the Pound? (Joseph Wright)

After beginning the week in downtrodden fashion, Sterling exchange rates today have posted some surprising gains once again with the GBP/EUR rate almost hitting 1.29, and GBP/USD trading as high as 1.4655.

I don’t think many would have expected these levels on Monday morning when Sterling was being heavily sold off. The bad start to the week was due to prominent ‘Brexit’ based polls suggesting that the ‘Brexiteers’ have been gaining support as of late, and this uncertainty weighed on the value of the Pound like it has done for much of this year.

Today’s boost was off the back of the latest Halifax HPI figures coming out better than expected, and they demonstrated an increase in house prices of 0.6% which boosted sentiment towards the Pound, driving up it’s value.

This positive sentiment surrounding the Pound today over-road a number of positives for the Euro recently. Firstly Eurozone GDP was recently revised upwards, and yesterday US Fed Reserve Chairlady gave a dovish sounding speech which boosted sentiment towards the Euro.

These examples just highlight the importance the upcoming EU Referendum has and how it’s driving GBP exchange rates at the moment. I expect the relationship between Sterling and the other major currencies to continue to be driven by EU voting (and betting) patterns.

Personally I’m expecting to see further headwinds in the lead up to the Referendum and I personally believe that the Pound is currently overvalued against both the Euro and the US Dollar, and I think we’ll see weaker levels for Sterling exchange rates on the day of the Referendum. 

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound and would like to get a better exchange rate than what your bank will offer, feel free to contact me (Joseph) on jxw@currencies.co.uk or call in and ask for me on 01494 787 478. I’m here to help you ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make the transfer, and help you benefit from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages.

3 weeks to the Referendum!

Exchange rates have slipped dramatically in the last few months as investors fears over the EU Referendum increase. Just what can we expect in the coming 3 weeks ahead of this historic occasion? Well I think it is likely that exchange rates will continue to fall in the coming 3 weeks as we get nearer to the Referendum and the pound is likely to retest the lows that have already been seen this year. The market will have to take account of the possibility of the UK leaving the EU and this will need to be reflected in the price of the currency as we approach the Referendum date. The polls are going to be the main drivers on the exchange rate as we get closer to the event I expect the ranges for pound sterling exchange rates to fluctuate in the recent bands that we have become so used to.

I predict GBPEUR to trade between 1.18 (Leave) and 1.40 (Remain) whilst GBPUSD should trade between 1.33 (Leave) to 1.52 (Remain). GBPAUD will I believe perform in a range of 1.82 (Leave) – 2.12 (Remain). There is likely to be big swings in the coming weeks as we the polls suggest different outcomes. Only last week Remain were leading by 60% according to some, now Leave are in the running at 52% majority.

Making predictions based on these polls is quite frankly very dangerous. The largest polls are only ever sample a few thousand candidates which means they are simply not very representative. The reason the polls got the UK General Election so badly wrong last year was the fact the polls weren’t polling enough of society to really get a true gauge on voters intentions. With this vote being more uncertain than the General Election the scope for big unexpected swings is massive.

The best way to manage the uncertainty is to keep up to date with the latest movements and utilise some of the expertise we have at our disposal including the Limit Order. This allows you to automatically purchase currency once the exchange rate hits a level you have pre determined. A forward contract allows you to fix a level up to 18 month in advance of needing to make a payment removing the risk of future exchange rate fluctuations impacting the value of your currency purchase.

In the words of a great motivational speaker ‘the best way to predict the future is to create it’, leaving everything in the lap of the gods is not normally a sensible strategy when dealing with the currency markets. If you would like to learn more about your options and the process please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

EU Referendum and impact on GBPEUR!

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I was very pleased this week to be asked to feature on the BBC talking about the pound and foreign exchange. This was a big boost to my confidence and our credibility in predicting currency movements. Expectations are now for sterling to fall further in the coming weeks and months as the pressure of political uncertainty continues to weigh on GBP. If you are buying the pound rates could yet go further in your favour although next month is possibly a tricky one if you are selling or buying Euros with pounds.

March sees the European Central Bank meet on the 10th March with a high expectation we will see some further QE or Quantitative Easing. This expectation could easily cause the Euro to weaken which would present better opportunities for anyone selling the pound and buying Euros. However if you have Euros to sell (maybe after a property or sale or because you or your business gets paid in Euros) you could miss out on these 18 month highs.

According to the forecast GBPEUR should rise next month, I would say at the highest to say 1.34. This would be if the QE is more than expected or if the ECB also cuts interest rates sharply. If the ECB fails to cut or meet expectations (like they did in December) I would predict lows of 1.20 on GBPEUR. Monday 29th February will be an interesting day because we have Eurozone Inflation data which will give us some ideas on what to expect in March from the ECB. After March I think the EU Referendum will weigh further on GBPEUR and depending of course on what has happened rates could easily retest the lower 1.20’s. In short the pound is likely to remain under pressure, with the Scottish Referendum and last year’s General Election much of the weakness for the pound was in the weeks leading up the event. With the vote on the 23rd June there are many more months ahead which the pound is likely to struggle to perform well in.

If you have a transfer to consider involving sterling and wish for some information on what is happening and what could happen as we approach the Referendum and after please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk. This would not just be for GBPEUR transfers it would also be for GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPZAR, GBPCHF, and many more. If you have a currency transfer involving sterling 2016 is a pivotal year for the pound and making plans is a very wise move. I look forward to hearing from you and answering any emails.