Tag Archives: currency

European bank stress tests out tonight…. Watch this space!! (Daniel Wright)

Tonight we have a fairly important night for all banks in Europe as the latest banking stress tests are released.

What I find a little concerning is that the results of these stress tests are not being released until outside of trading hours at 9pm, this may be because this is when they are ready or more like that we may hear some fairly interesting news from them.

It is very rare that an economic data release from Europe comes out late on a Friday night and I feel that the reason they are doing this may be that they have some bad news to bring to the market and they do not want investors and speculators to react on it straight away.

By releasing data late at night on a Friday this gives ample time for statements to be released afterwards to settle the markets and two days for investors and speculators to calm down before the market sees large knee jerk reactions.

It is fairly common knowledge that banks in a number of areas are in quite a lot of trouble, most notably the Italian banks at present. Should the stress tests back this theory up then the Euro may find trouble and be down on Monday morning.

If you are in the position where you have a large Euro transaction to carry out then it may be prudent to keep an eye on the rates when the Asian markets open on Sunday night.

To be honest, these results may impact global attitude to risk so all major currencies may see volatility so it is key that you are on the ball and ready to react as your currency exchange may become thousands of Pounds cheaper or more expensive very quickly.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we do not only write up to date and important market information for you but we all work for one of the largest currency brokerages in the U.K so can also help you with your currency transfer. If you have a transaction to carry out involving buying or selling the Pound then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) the owner and creator of this site and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss your requirements. You can email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to speaking with you.

 

GBPEUR short term forecast (Dayle Littlejohn)

Since the UK public voted to leave the European Union, GBPEUR exchange rates have plummeted. Presently a €200,000 purchase is now costing an extra £14,000.

Pre Referendum UK GDP numbers are set to be released Wednesday morning. The numbers are set to show a slight improvement which should help sterling’s position, good news for euro buyers.

Eurozone GDP and Consumer Price index numbers are to be released Friday morning. The prediction for GDP is for a slight decline. However the Consumer Price Index numbers I believe will show a slight improvement due to the amount of quantitative easing the ECB is pumping into the European economy. Therefore I believe both data releases will counter act one another.

Looking to next week the UK release their latest interest rate decision. This has been a hot topic since the referendum vote and many leading economists believe a cut is just around the corner. If you have euros to buy in the next 3 months I would purchase before August 4th, if you are selling euros I would hold off and see how the Bank of England plan to act in regards to monetary policy.

The currency company I work for enables me to buy and sell pounds at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. If you are buying or selling pounds this year feel free to send me the currency pair (if you are not trading GBPEUR) and the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk.

Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn

 

Where next for the pound? (Dayle Littlejohn)

Since the UK public decided a ‘Brexit’ is the way forward for Britain GBPEUR and GBPUSD exchange rate have fallen 15 and 21 cents respectively. In figures this means a 200,000 euro and US dollar purchase is now approximately £20,000 and £22,000 more expensive and in my opinion it could get worse.

The golden question my clients are asking ‘is how could the pounds value fall?’ The UK’s interest rate decision next Thursday will give a clear indication into how the Bank of England plan to act, in order to combat a plummeting pound and an unstable market place. Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has eluded to a cut by 0.25% as early as next week.

However I believe this will be a premature move and actually he will put it off for at least another month. Nevertheless I expect further sterling weakness next Thursday.

Looking further ahead (medium term), early September the Conservative party will vote to decide the next Prime Minister. Once we have some certainty all eyes will turn to the PM and if they will start the ball rolling with Article50.

If the bookies favorite Theresa May is elected I feel their could be further negotiations with EU leaders before any decision is made in regards to Article50. Either way the volatility surrounding Article50 and the UKs future path will put further pressure on sterling and therefore further falls are expected.

The currency company I work for enables me to buy and sell pounds at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. If you are buying or selling pounds this year feel free to send me the currency pair you are trading (GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn

 

How far can the pound fall?

The pound has actually made some very small gains today but the outlook remains grim in my opinion. Despite the markets bouncing off the bottom today I do not think there is going to be a huge amount to be cheerful about and the rally of this morning quickly halted. The UK has no Prime Minister, the EU say there will be no special deal for the UK and business confidence and investment is down. There is a harsh choice for the next PM will it be abandoning free movement of people or retaining access to the single markets. According to the EU we cannot have both! If you are considering a currency exchange (£10,000 over only bank to bank exchanges please) please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to keep up with the latest news on how the pound is performing.

How much lower will GBPUSD drop?

The problem on this pair is the US Election is not far away which is bound to lead to uncertainty on the exchange rate. The prospect of a Trump Presidency has in my mind not been properly factored into the dollar. The Brexit vote also makes a US Interest rate hike less likely which I feel is not being reflected on the pair. I expect this rate to trade between 1.30 – 1.40 until August before moving back to 1.40-1.50 August to September. From there the picture is less clear but a move back above 1.50 could not be ruled out. If you have any USD transfers to consider the USD is almost at a 30 year high against the pound. To understand the latest movements please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPEUR hit 1.25?

For Euro buyers this is the question I am being asked most. Well I think Greek concerns and worries may resurface in the next few months and a top of 1.25 is possible, the negative impact of Brexit is also hurting the Euro. But I think sterling will be the main loser and would call lows in the 1.10-1.15 range up to September. From there much will depend on how Brexit negotiations but I think the pound will remain weak until we have certainty. If you have any Euro transfers on amounts above £10,000 (eg property sale of business transfer) please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information on securing the best GBPEUR and EURGBP exchange rates.

Brexit may well not prove to be too bad in the long run but it is clear to me the impact on sterling exchange rates still has much further to run, we still know very little about what to expect next. Any signs of an interest rate cut or further Quantitative Easing could easily send the pound lower and I would be most worried about this prospect towards the end of this year or early next.

Sterling is at multi year lows against GBPAUD, GBPCAD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF and GBPZAR..  Make sure you don’t miss out..

  This aware winning blog has enabled tens of thousands of people globally to save money on their currency exchanges through helpful, friendly knowledgeable information from experienced currency brokers. As one of the Chief contributors here I would be delighted to hear from any of you wish for information at this important historic time for the pounds. An email will only take you a minute and the savings on offer could be thousands, what have you to lose. If you have a currency exchange to consider and would like to learn the latest exchange rate forecast please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

Sterling exchange rates are struggling for direction, where next for the Pound? (Joseph Wright)

After beginning the week in downtrodden fashion, Sterling exchange rates today have posted some surprising gains once again with the GBP/EUR rate almost hitting 1.29, and GBP/USD trading as high as 1.4655.

I don’t think many would have expected these levels on Monday morning when Sterling was being heavily sold off. The bad start to the week was due to prominent ‘Brexit’ based polls suggesting that the ‘Brexiteers’ have been gaining support as of late, and this uncertainty weighed on the value of the Pound like it has done for much of this year.

Today’s boost was off the back of the latest Halifax HPI figures coming out better than expected, and they demonstrated an increase in house prices of 0.6% which boosted sentiment towards the Pound, driving up it’s value.

This positive sentiment surrounding the Pound today over-road a number of positives for the Euro recently. Firstly Eurozone GDP was recently revised upwards, and yesterday US Fed Reserve Chairlady gave a dovish sounding speech which boosted sentiment towards the Euro.

These examples just highlight the importance the upcoming EU Referendum has and how it’s driving GBP exchange rates at the moment. I expect the relationship between Sterling and the other major currencies to continue to be driven by EU voting (and betting) patterns.

Personally I’m expecting to see further headwinds in the lead up to the Referendum and I personally believe that the Pound is currently overvalued against both the Euro and the US Dollar, and I think we’ll see weaker levels for Sterling exchange rates on the day of the Referendum. 

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound and would like to get a better exchange rate than what your bank will offer, feel free to contact me (Joseph) on jxw@currencies.co.uk or call in and ask for me on 01494 787 478. I’m here to help you ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make the transfer, and help you benefit from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages.

3 weeks to the Referendum!

Exchange rates have slipped dramatically in the last few months as investors fears over the EU Referendum increase. Just what can we expect in the coming 3 weeks ahead of this historic occasion? Well I think it is likely that exchange rates will continue to fall in the coming 3 weeks as we get nearer to the Referendum and the pound is likely to retest the lows that have already been seen this year. The market will have to take account of the possibility of the UK leaving the EU and this will need to be reflected in the price of the currency as we approach the Referendum date. The polls are going to be the main drivers on the exchange rate as we get closer to the event I expect the ranges for pound sterling exchange rates to fluctuate in the recent bands that we have become so used to.

I predict GBPEUR to trade between 1.18 (Leave) and 1.40 (Remain) whilst GBPUSD should trade between 1.33 (Leave) to 1.52 (Remain). GBPAUD will I believe perform in a range of 1.82 (Leave) – 2.12 (Remain). There is likely to be big swings in the coming weeks as we the polls suggest different outcomes. Only last week Remain were leading by 60% according to some, now Leave are in the running at 52% majority.

Making predictions based on these polls is quite frankly very dangerous. The largest polls are only ever sample a few thousand candidates which means they are simply not very representative. The reason the polls got the UK General Election so badly wrong last year was the fact the polls weren’t polling enough of society to really get a true gauge on voters intentions. With this vote being more uncertain than the General Election the scope for big unexpected swings is massive.

The best way to manage the uncertainty is to keep up to date with the latest movements and utilise some of the expertise we have at our disposal including the Limit Order. This allows you to automatically purchase currency once the exchange rate hits a level you have pre determined. A forward contract allows you to fix a level up to 18 month in advance of needing to make a payment removing the risk of future exchange rate fluctuations impacting the value of your currency purchase.

In the words of a great motivational speaker ‘the best way to predict the future is to create it’, leaving everything in the lap of the gods is not normally a sensible strategy when dealing with the currency markets. If you would like to learn more about your options and the process please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

EU Referendum and impact on GBPEUR!

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I was very pleased this week to be asked to feature on the BBC talking about the pound and foreign exchange. This was a big boost to my confidence and our credibility in predicting currency movements. Expectations are now for sterling to fall further in the coming weeks and months as the pressure of political uncertainty continues to weigh on GBP. If you are buying the pound rates could yet go further in your favour although next month is possibly a tricky one if you are selling or buying Euros with pounds.

March sees the European Central Bank meet on the 10th March with a high expectation we will see some further QE or Quantitative Easing. This expectation could easily cause the Euro to weaken which would present better opportunities for anyone selling the pound and buying Euros. However if you have Euros to sell (maybe after a property or sale or because you or your business gets paid in Euros) you could miss out on these 18 month highs.

According to the forecast GBPEUR should rise next month, I would say at the highest to say 1.34. This would be if the QE is more than expected or if the ECB also cuts interest rates sharply. If the ECB fails to cut or meet expectations (like they did in December) I would predict lows of 1.20 on GBPEUR. Monday 29th February will be an interesting day because we have Eurozone Inflation data which will give us some ideas on what to expect in March from the ECB. After March I think the EU Referendum will weigh further on GBPEUR and depending of course on what has happened rates could easily retest the lower 1.20’s. In short the pound is likely to remain under pressure, with the Scottish Referendum and last year’s General Election much of the weakness for the pound was in the weeks leading up the event. With the vote on the 23rd June there are many more months ahead which the pound is likely to struggle to perform well in.

If you have a transfer to consider involving sterling and wish for some information on what is happening and what could happen as we approach the Referendum and after please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk. This would not just be for GBPEUR transfers it would also be for GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPZAR, GBPCHF, and many more. If you have a currency transfer involving sterling 2016 is a pivotal year for the pound and making plans is a very wise move. I look forward to hearing from you and answering any emails.

Latest media coverage from our writers! What next for the pound?

bbcnew3Last night I was very pleased to be asked to appear on BBC News to discuss the ‘Brexit’ question and Sterling weakness. I was asked how I thought upcoming events would influence the pound moving forward and as regular readers will know in my opinion the future is because of this very issue not looking too rosy for the pound. At the beginning of this year I wrote here how I believed the pound would like lose value (you can read the post here) and I can offer further predictions on Sterling exchange rates here. The remaining question of course is will this continue? Well my answer is that yes I believe it will but following such a torrid day yesterday this may not manifest immediately. In fact the rest of this week could be quieter but that isn’t any reason to hold back from making plans! Thursday is an important day with the latest GDP figures for the UK, sterling is unlikely to come under renewed pressure again this week but could easily trade in the recent lower ranges against most currencies.

When should I buy Euros?

If you need to buy Euros with pounds and want a little more for your money make sure you are ready to buy by the 10th March! Many of my clients are concerned with GBPEUR movements and the one hope for Euro buyers with pounds is next month’s ECB decision on Quantitative Easing on the 10th March.  If (and it is an if) the ECB embark on further QE this should weaken the Euro making it more attractive to buy Euros. Thursday this week is also important because we have Eurozone Inflation data which will give us a clearer picture on what to expect next month for the European Central Bank (ECB).  Essentially worse Inflation data makes it more likely we will see more QE in March. Understanding upcoming economic events are key to making some plans on when to make your currency purchase so if you are unsure or just wish to have a chat about your requirements please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

If you are selling Euros dare I ask what you are waiting for? Since November you have made 10% on your currency deal. This is normally the kind of mov
ement you may see between the high and low in a year. Current Euro to GBP rates are the best in 16 months and whilst of course they may improve further if I was selling Euros I would be very worried about next month’s ECB decision and just how this could impact my purchase. If you have Euros to sell and wish to learn some information on the best time to sell in this market, please email jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will USD to GBP rates improve further?

This week is the release of US GDP figures which will help provide some further direction on cable prices. GBP weakness has helped drag the pair down to fresh lows touching close to a 7 year high but I cannot see it getting too much better in the short term. Thursday and Friday’s GDP data will be key to determining the next moves but I do feel much of the bad news for sterling is priced in and because of a high chance of the Federal Reserve reviewing their previous bold comments that they will raise rates again, the dollar will weaken.

I have worked a specialist foreign exchange broker for 6 years personally assisting both businesses and private clients with their foreign exchange requirements. I am a big fan of talking abut the market and am very pleased to be quoted in the press and other articles online. If you are considering a currency transaction involving the pound this is a very interesting market at present and I would be very happy to discuss with you all your options and the latest forecast for you. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk with an outline of your situation and preferably a phone number, I will respond as quickly as I can!

Inflation data tomorrow morning and unemployment on Wednesday morning to be the main focus for Sterling in the next 48 hours (Daniel Wright)

A better start to the week for Sterling against the Euro however a drop against the Australian and New Zealand Dollar are the main things to report today.

Share prices generally rose and investors around the world generally seemed to have a little more confidence, compared to a week of doom and gloom last week. When the markets are calm the riskier currencies such as the AUD and NZD tend to become more expensive to buy and the Euro has been getting a little cheaper…. We saw quite the opposite throughout the course of last week.

Tomorrow, asides from being impacted yet again by global risk appetite we have key inflation figures out for the U.K at 09:30am. Expectations are for a slight rise to 0.3% which would be welcome news for Sterling and should give the Pound a little boost. The Bank of England target for inflation is 2% so any movement towards that sum is seen as good news and may help Sterling.

Wednesday again gives us the chance to see a good morning for Sterling exchange rates as we have unemployment figures for the U.K at 09:30am. Expectations again are pointing towards a decrease in unemployment from 5.1% to 5% which would be good news for the U.K. and the Pound.

Anyone with a currency exchange to carry out in the near future must be aware that although it does seem like the Pound may have a good few days, these releases do not always come out as analysts are predicting so there is still a hefty risk to the down side.

All in all the next 48 hours will no doubt be volatile for Sterling exchange rates so if you are looking to carry out a currency exchange involving buying or selling the Pound then it is extremely important that you have a proactive currency broker on your side.

If your requirement is property based then do not fall into the trap of going with the broker that your property agent has thoroughly recommended  as it is more than likely that they will be getting paid a commission should you use that brokerages services so it is doubtful you will get the best rate of exchange.

If you would like to speak with me (Daniel Wright) directly about your exchange and would appreciate a non biased view, along with a quote to see if you could actually save money over your bank or any broker you are currently in contact with then you are more than welcome.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk or call me during U.K trading hours on 01494 787 478 or 0044 1494 787 478 if calling from overseas. Please ensure you ask for me Daniel Wright directly. I look forward to speaking with you.

 

Sterling has another exceedingly volatile day against Euro, Dollar and all majors – Global markets remain fragile (Daniel Wright)

It has been yet another busy day on the trading floor and we have seen yet another volatile 24 hours for Sterling exchange rates.

Markets around the world appear to be exceedingly nervous at present and there is a little worry that we may have one hell of a storm brewing ahead.

In the past year we have seen issues with the European economy, issues with the Chinese economy, oil prices dropping off, bank share prices plummet and the potential of any interest rate hike for the U.K slowly but surely be kicked further and further down the road so it is no surprise that the markets are acting a little out of the ordinary.

My personal opinion is still that Sterling is a little undervalued however when you do see negative movements like we have witnessed of late then the question does start to arise of how much further can it drop before we see a recovery? We all wish we truly knew the answer to this question as we would make a great deal of money…

The key with these sort of situations if you are due to be making a large exchange is to make sure you protect your position. Many people fall into the trap of thinking that they have to carry out their currency needs in one large chunk, and to time that correctly is almost impossible, along with the fact that you leave yourself extremely exposed.

If you are in the position that you do need to buy or sell a large quantity of currency for your business or indeed for the purchase or sale of a property then it is well worth getting in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly so that I can work together with you to try and maximise your money. I have been assisting clients in this position for nearly 10 years and I have been writing on this site for over 5 years so I am well positioned to not only help you get top commercial rates of exchange but also to ensure you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side at all times.

If you are stuck in a tricky position due to the latest movements and you are finding that you are stuck on your own with nowhere to turn the feel free to get in touch with me directly and I will be more than happy to call you personally. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk or call me on 01494 787 478 during U.K office hours of 08:30am – 18:00pm (please ask for Daniel Wright). You do not need to be based in the U.K for us to be able to help you.