Tag Archives: currency
What will happen next week on sterling exchange rates?
An excellent run of form for sterling has seen us hit a 15 week high against the euro and 11 week highs against the US dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. Is this going to get much better or has this rally run out of steam?
I think that this rally has run out of steam but that does not mean rates are going to just crash back down. Sterling has been given a boost by the improved GDP stats (0.3% growth for Q1) which removes some of the more immediate concerns regarding sterling. In order for the pound to press on we need to see more positive data and next Thursday could be a trigger with Industrial and Manufacturing data plus the NIESR (National Institute of Economic & Social Research) estimate of GDP for April.
If you are considering moving sterling in the next few weeks next week could be fairly pivotal in shaping the future direction for sterling. It is important not just for sterling but due to the releases affecting other currencies. Here is a quick run through of a couple of things to beware of on rates next week.
EURO – Mario Draghi and the ECB (European Central Bank) are giving a couple of speeches next week including the ECB Monthly Report. There was a story today that the ECB were playing down speculation yesterday rates may be cut further. If any such bold statements are made I expect the Euro to strengthen, but not by much.. The Euro is in the firing line right now. If you are considering any GBPEUR or EURGBP transfers in the future please feel free to contact me for a forecast specific to your requirements. jmw@currencies.co.uk
USD – An improved employment outlook for the US today helped the USD to strengthen against sterling but unless the pound comes under pressure I expect GBPUSD to push higher. A speech next Friday by Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in the US, Ben Bernanke could be crucial.
AUSTRALIAN – The Reserve Bank of Australia meet for their monthly meeting next Monday evening where they decide on economic policy. The statement after their meeting may be more indicative of policy as no change is expected. Next week we also have Australian employment data which could move rates. On the whole I expect rates to remain good for buyers, sellers of AUD to buy GBP may wish to move sooner if they don’t see improvements.
Our service is designed to save people money on their currency exchanges. This is not just through offering better rates than the banks and other currency brokers, but by assisting with the actual timing of your exchange. Even if your transfer is just a one off we can help guide you through the process of moving money internationally at the very best rates.
Even if your transfer is not required for some time we can forward book rates for a small deposit. For more information on the services and to make a comparison or register an alert for certain trading levels, please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
Thank you
U.K GDP figures better than expected!
Wow, what a busy day on the markets and indeed on our trading floor following much better than expected GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures released for the U.K.
The Pound has gained against all major currencies as figures released were much better than expected coming out at 0.3% growth instead of the expected 0.1%.
This has provided a great buying opportunity for anyone looking to buy foreign currency – If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out then feel free to call me immediately djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of your requirement and a number for me to call you back on. We specialise in getting the very best rates of exchange for bank to bank transfers so it is worth sending a quick email over for a comparison against your bank or current provider, we may save you hundreds if not thousands.
Why not join our mailing list too, I keep clients fully up to date with market movements and offer an extremely proactive service ensuring you can get on with your busy day without having to worry about what is happening on the market – we do that for you.
Once again, djw@currencies.co.uk is where you can make an enquiry – I look forward to hearing from you.
Buying euros news, best exchange rates, when to buy, when to sell? (Steve Eakins)
Currency exchange rates have had a bit of a “blip” this week or a SPIKE allowing euro sellers to trade at a 6 week high. It is these SPIKES that often achieve the best price in the market but you have to move quickly to catch them as they don’t hang around for long. A Spike in the market is when some surprising information is released which moves the markets quickly and by a large amount. Unfortunately most recent SPIKE has now ended and the rates have started to return to the level seen over the last 5 weeks.
These spikes do not happen often and when they do it is only the clients with funds available that can normally take advantage. I am of the thought that there will be other spikes through the month of May due to key data being released from the UK with regards to the potential of the UK economy falling into a recession and the Eurozone maybe lowering interest rates. So if you need to move currency internationally register for SPIKE notifications via email at hse@currencies.co.uk
What next for currency rates?
Many euro buyers have been waiting for rates to climb back over 1.20 that we saw last year. Which may or may not happen. The facts still remain that the UK is growing at near zero percent, Unemployment continues to climb, consumer spending is still very low, and there is no real signs of any improvement in the near future. We don’t have an Olympics or a royal wedding to pin our hopes on. This week we have even seen the International Monetary Fund comment that the UK is at risk which is a view also shared by the next Governor of the Bank of England. So in the medium term I expect rates to fall.
The good news however is that rates do not move in a straight line and there are events in the near future that could help euro buyers:
- Next Thursday we have the UK GDP figures being released, this should confirm that the UK avoided a recession. I expect this to improve prices at the time by maybe a cent – saving clients £1,500 on a €200,000 purchase.
- The week following we have European Interest rate decision. There is a possibility that they will cut interest rates which could push exchange rates up for euro buyers, maybe by 1.5 cents – saving clients £2,250 on a €200,000 purchase.
To find out more about the specialist currency service we provide, whether you are a private or corporate client, then we can help. Please get in touch either on 01494 787478 or by emailing me with a brief description of your individual requirement and I will happily contact you and run through your options. You can reach me direct at hse@currencies.co.uk
Register for SPIKE NOTIFICATION or a RATE ALERT simply email me Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk with your details.
Pound Sterling takes a hit this morning yet fights back in the afternoon…. Why it is key to have a proactive broker on your side (Daniel Wright)
Sterling took a hit in early morning trading even though the Bank of England minutes did not lead to any surprises.
The release that shook the Pound was U.K unemployment figure which came out worse than expected and led to a sharp drop against most major currencies.
The Pound managed to fight back in the afternoon, most notably against the Euro as we saw a member of the ECB (European Central Bank) comment on the increasing potential of the ECB cutting interest rates in the near future.
An interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for the currency concerned and a hike a positive as it makes a currency more attractive to investors. Even the slightest hint of a rate cut and a currency can devalue which is why we headed back to roughly 1.17 (over a cent higher than the low of the day) before close of trading.
This highlights the need to have someone on your side monitoring rates of exchange… I saved some clients over £2000 on their €235,000 purchase today by telling them to sit tight and wait after the drop we saw in early morning trading…. The decision of course always has to be the clients but they agreed and got their Euros a lot cheaper at the end of the day.
If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out and you want the very best exchange rates to either buy or sell the Pound and you want to be kept fully up to speed with market movements that may save you £1000s then contact me directly and I will be happy to help you compare with your bank or current provider – I pride myself on not only rates but customer service too.
You can contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk please quote PSF in the subject title and leave me a number to call you on, I look forward to speaking with you.
GBPEUR rates rally but what does the future hold, will we see 1.20 again? (Steve Eakins)
Rates have climbed further this morning as news continue to come out of a small island in the MED, Cyprus. It continues to rule and dictate the world of currency exchange rates this week.
The good news is that as a result of concerns GBPEUR rates are up at a 5 week high but many expect a fall back down once a bailout has been agreed. The facts remain, they need a bailout; option 1 is to take an offer from the Europeans, option 2 is to take an offer from Russia in exchange for the rights to their natural resources of natural gas predicted to be worth some €500,000,000 and leave the euro, option 3 take an offer from both. The details to watch out for are the introduction of any bank levy which could send ripples across the rest. This could cause concerns for the future as if they can put them on account holders in Cyprus they can announced anyone else. Plus if the outcome is that they look to leave the Eurozone watch rates carefully with great interest as this would be unprecedented, the most unlikely outcome in my option.
The latest is that the Europeans have said that Cyprus must agree to their offer by Monday otherwise it will be withdrawn. I think the most likely outcome is a European deal, with a bank levy on accounts with over €100,000 in. This I would expect to result in euro strength as the uncertainty is temporally resolved. It could fall by several cents. Then to follow over the coming weeks will be the threat of a similar bank levy being introduced to other countries if they continue to miss debt targets (Greece, Portugal, Ireland and even Spain and Italy.)
As a result my view is that if you have any funds to buy with the Pound to either move quickly taking advantage of this 5 week high, or seriously consider limiting your risk with limit orders and stop loss orders. These are technical contract orders available from brokers like ourselves to limit your exposure to the markets by putting in automatic buy orders in the markets.
UK Pound summary and forecast
Some clients are asking whether we will see GBPEUR rates climb up again to 1.20, I personally see this as very unlikely in the near or even medium term as the UK situation continues to fall.
This week’s budget in summary: When Cameron and Osbourne took office in May 2010, they predicted the economy would grow more that 5% over the next 2 years, a budget deficit equal to 11% of GDP would fall to 2% by 2015 and the UK would keep its AAA credit rating. Instead, output rose 1.1%, the deficit is at 8% of GDP and most expect Fitch rating agency and Standard and Poor will follow Moody’s in downgrading the credit rating score after this week’s budget. They really asked for yet another 4 years to try and achieve their original goals. So the outlook does not look like it will improve significantly in the UK for some years.
Plus put into the mix that we also saw unemployment climb again this week that did not make much of the media.
- If you are in the position looking at buying funds and want to make sure you are getting the most of the market, or want to make sure you are getting the best price, contact us today to find out. Call us on the normal number or myself at hse@currencies.co.uk
- Also available is the system of SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS; if you want to be keep up to date with the markets and how this could affect you simply email your details and register for updates via email at hse@curerncies.co.uk with the subject – SPIKE NOTIFICATION
Have a good weekend and spare a thought for account holders in Cyprus that have not had access to their funds for over a week now….
Cyprus helps support GBPEUR rates to highest in 30 days – When to buy the Euro (Steve Eakins)
We have been particularly busy this morning due to the news breaking out of Cyprus. Not that the small economy, the third smallest across the Eurozone is receiving a bailout, but that as part of it funding needs to be raised by a bank levy. This bank levy is currently expected to be 6.75% on anything under €100,000 in any personal account held by a Cyprus account and closer to 8% on anything over. It seems that Germany is uncomfortable to pay out a country that they see as a hotspot for money laundering of rich Russians. This current proposal is being voted on today inside the Cyprus Government which could see a deduction to 3%.
It resulted in a run on the banks across Cyprus in a similar way we saw back in 2008 on Northern Rock here in the UK and the concern is this could spread across other European countries causing the house of cards to fall apart. It has in turn weakened the Euro significantly over the weekend making it the best time to buy the euro for over 30 days with the pound, a month high.
So when shall I buy euros?
Well the knee jerk reaction currently is quite attractive, I personally cannot see any spread of contagion in the near future so would be looking sooner rather than later. We also have to respect the UK Budget later this week on Wednesday which could easily put the Pound back on the negative sloop which is the more common route through 2013 with a 8% loss seen at some points against both the dollar and the euro this year.
However as the US markets have not traded on this news I can imagine a further gain for the pound this afternoon. If I needed to buy euros within the next 15 days I would be very much looking at rates today to complete my exchange or to limit my exposure but doing some and employing limit orders and stop orders. For more information on what these contracts are and the other benefits of using a currency broker over your bank contact me, Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk
This spike in the market has seen quick moving clients that had registered for SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS via hse@currencies.co.uk save nearly 3% compared to a week ago or £6,250 on a €200,000 purchase. If you would like to benefit from these notifications register your interest by giving me a call, Steve Eakins on the normal number or via email at hse@currencies.co.uk
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Why the pound can only get weaker! Current pound sterling exchange rates should not be taken for granted…
The pound has dropped quite sharply this year and with very good reason. The number one question I am hearing is will it drop further and as painful as this may be to hear, the answer I have to say is yes. This is good news for those selling a foreign currency to buy sterling, read on to find out how we can help save you money and ensure you trade at the right time.
The UK economy is uncompetitive. Five years of a major depreciation in the value of the pound has done little to ignite the recovery many expected would be under way. It is majorly in the Government’s and Bank of England’s interest to have a weak pound as this will help the recovery and gives credibility to their economic plans. A major devaluing of the pound is the only way the UK can get out of the mess it is in.
Martin Weale from the Bank of England stated only recently that it was in the UK’s interest to have a weaker pound and I expect that these sentiments will prevail for most of the next few months. It is therefore unrealistic to expect that the pound will suddenly make major improvements against the major currency pairs.
Are you considering a currency exchange involving the pound and wondering where all this is headed? For an unbeatable rate of exchange and market updates to ensure you don’t miss out please feel free to contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478. To ensure I can best help you it would be useful to provide an outline of your situation and a contact telephone number.
Tomorrow we have the Bank of England minutes which are likely to cause the pound to lose further ground against the majors. Rates could drop up to a cent or two. There is a very slim chance some members may have voted for a rate hike but I doubt it. The minutes last month were more telling and this could be the case again. I will be watching this release very closely to see what is happening as it may well provide news on where rates will go in the future. If you are too busy to read through twenty pages of Bank of England data please register an interest with me!
To best assess the future we can always look to the past. The pound was strong last year because of Eurozone worries. Investors put money into the pound as a safe haven. This year as those fears have subsided and the UK economy teeters on the brink of an unprecedented triple dip investors have sold off their GBP positions and this has contributed to a weak pound. My predictions are therefore that sterling will continue to suffer in the future and that anyone who thinks this is the lowest it will go should not take current levels for granted.
The best way to ensure you do not suffer at the hands of market movements is to register an interest. As specialist currency brokers we set this site up for our clients and new clients alike. Our personal and proactive service means we can watch the rates for you and provide all the information to make an informed decision. Please feel free to contact myself Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask for me.
I look forward to hearing from you and assisting you with your currency matters.
