Tag Archives: currency

U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures to be the key to Sterling performance tomorrow (Daniel Wright)

After another fairly quiet day on the market for the Pound our heads now turn to GDP figures released tomorrow morning at 09:30am. The figure is merely a revision of what we have already had released, however any adjustments outside of expectations may lead to a fairly volatile finish to the week for Sterling.

Following the U.S and their shock revision down to -2.9% in trading yesterday I would be surprised to see anything quite as dramatic come from the U.K and the good news for those looking to buy foreign currency with the Pound is that the figure is expected to be at 3.1% for the year and 0.8% for Q1 of 2014 – a lot better than the States.

We have a similar release from France at 7:45am and then some European Consumer confidence and business sentiment data out at 10:00am so there is plenty to shake the market up throughout tomorrow mornings trading. Personally I would not be surprised to see Sterling have a good solid end to the week as nothing has really come out to hinder our progress… Mark Carney could have thrown a real spanner in the works in either of his speeches yet he didn’t and economic data has be reasonably good.

If you are looking to buy or indeed sell foreign currency in the coming days, weeks or months then please do feel free to contact me directly, you can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to call you personally. I look forward to speaking with you.

Will sterling rise higher still? When will this happen?

This week we predicted the pound could rise higher and so it has. Improvements in the Unemployment picture have given sterling a leg up against its peers which represents yet more fantastic opportunities for anyone buying a foreign currency with sterling. Assuming the forecasts for GBP strength are right, how high will the pound rise and when will we see the next spikes?

Despite the awareness of problems in the UK’s recent economic surge there appears to be little stopping the pound at present. A suspected housing bubble, problems of low wages and fears of an over reliance on consumer spending have all done little to dent confidence in the pound which seems to be going from strength to strength.The overriding factor is the fact the UK is on an economic upturn well established versus a Eurozone effectively going backwards and a US still reliant on a QE programme. The UK offers an excellent place to invest with the prospect of higher interest rates and a more buoyant economy in 2015.

Next week is a range of data to move the market, all of which should be quite interesting and could provide yet more opportunities for the brave! Wednesday and Friday next week look like the busier days to me. Wednesday we have the Bank of England Minutes form their latest meeting and Friday PSNB (Public Sector Net Borrowing) data. Last month PSNB caused the pound to drop a little so these releases are by no means guarantees you will get more for your money!

Ultimately no one can tell you what is going to happen on the market. However our position as currency market specialists gives us strong insight into what may happen, plus we have the experience and expertise in place to properly manage your exposure to the currency markets. For more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

US Data This Afternoon Noteworthy But Next Week Is Crunch Time For Most Exchange Rates (Colm Gilhooly)

USD

US GDP data this afternoon is likely to have some bearing on global confidence, and certainly may impact on exchange rates for the US Dollar which has been strengthening over the last few days versus a pound with little data out to support it, and a Euro which is coming under fire from speculation over ECB policy.  In my mind it is unlikely to cause huge shifts in the market, unless of course the figures are well wide of the mark, because most sentiment around the Dollar is largely being dictated by the dovish tones of the Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve.

Nest week we have Manufacturing PMI for the States on Monday and round off the week with US non-farm payrolls, which could be the catalyst for USD strength if they show improvement as they may encourage a cautious Fed to consider changing stance.  I think the USD is undervalued and will gradually strengthen back slightly as economic conditions improve stateside, however it is likely to be a rocky road as all the uncertainty will keep the currency markets jumping one way and another.  If you are looking to buy USD then feel free to email cmg@currencies.co.uk  and I would be happy to help.

EUR

We also have German retail figures out tomorrow morning but again next week is key for short term Euro exchange rates.  We have CPI data out on Tuesday and GDP out on Wednesday, and then on Thursday it is the one everyone has been waiting for – the ECB rate decision and press conference.  Weak European inflation and low growth rates, acknowledged as a concern by the ECB, have led many to believe there could be some policy change by Draghi & Co to stimulate things and this has resulted in the pricing in of a weaker Euro over the last couple of weeks.  If there is some change (eg a further interest rate cut, or some other extraordinary measure) then we could see the Euro weaken further, but no action may give a reprieve to Euro sellers in the short term.  If you are buying or selling Euro and want to use our currency transfer service to get the best exchange rate, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

GBP

We do have some mortgage approvals and housing data next week alongside Services PMI, all of which could continue the positive perceptions of the UK economy, but it seems unlikely we will see any change of policy by the MPC at the Bank of England meeting given their recent public comments.  In all I expect the pound to be relatively well supported against most currencies as I dont expect the data to be anything other than positive.

AUD

If you are buying Aussie Dollars, then not only will all the US data have an impact due to the influence it will have on global monetary policy, but we also have the next RBA decision in the early hours of Tuesday morning and then the latest GDP releases on Wednesday.  The RBA have stopped any possibility of further interest rate cuts however they have acknowledged the strength of the AUD is a concern and have lowered growth forecasts for the following quarters as a result in a move no doubt designed to weaken the currency and boost exports.  Again because of the importance of the news I think it would be worth preparing to move quickly in case of a big spike or trough caused by these announcements- stop loss and limit orders seem to have worked well on the Aussie recently so if you want to find out how you can use us to do this then feel free to email cmg@currencies.co.uk

CHF

Not much in the way of Swiss data out until the end of next week but the CPI figures will be important.  however the Swiss Franc is likely to be heavily influenced by global sentiment so watch USD EUR rates closely, and obviously the UK releases as well!

CAD

Canada also has its interest rate decision next week on Wednesday and jobs figures on Friday.  The CAD has strengthened significantly in the last month against the pound and I expect that these announcements could be an opportunity however GDP figures this afternoon are more likely to have an immediate impact so forget next week for now and concentrate on this afternoon!  Once again if you would like help to get the best deal on your currency, especially if buying Canadian Dollars, or need to sell the loonie, then why not see what we can offer compared with your bank?  Email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and we can go through some figures and compare savings.

Save Money Compared With Your Bank On Currency Transfers!

As a company we specialise in foreign exchange for currency transfers- the blogs are designed to give extra information so you can time your exchange and keep a track of the currency market.  However the real benefit comes from the exchange rate we can offer to save you money so don’t be shy get in touch and see what rates we can offer you.  Simply email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to go through an overview of your requirements and see what we can do to help make the transfer as easy and cost effective as possible.

Great Time To Buy Dollars And Euros With Sterling (Colm Gilhooly)

The last couple of days have seen some great buying opportunities for both Euros and Dollars, with sterling reaching near the highest levels since 2008 on the Dollar and near a year high on the Euro.

GBP

So what is causing all the movement?  Well firstly we have had a lot of good UK data out over the last few months with unemployment falling, growth forecasts improving, and house prices rising, all of which has given the pound a much needed boost.  The UK is expected to increase interest rates at some point in the not too distant future- some analysts think possibly as soon as the end of this year, but most point towards the middle of 2015.  The Bank of England seem keen to keep playing down the possibility of big hikes so any improvement is likely to be gradual and long term, but it is certainly providing support for sterling compared with the exceptionally low levels of the last few years.

EUR

Data in Europe on the other hand has not been particularly brilliant, and whilst growth forecasts have improved slightly, it is improvements from minuscule levels suggesting the Eurozone has quite a few years of catching up to do.  Of particular concern is the very low inflation levels that Mario Draghi the President of the ECB has noted is a real worry.  He has suggested recently that the ECB would consider exceptional measures to combat falling inflation if needed, and at yesterday’s press conference he went as far to suggest that they may even take action in June if the next set of inflation data was weak.  This caused a big drop for the Euro against the pound and has created a great buying opportunity because any action Draghi may take would likely damage the value of the Euro (think either negative interest rates or something like the Quantitative Easing that caused so much sterling weakness in the last few years).  The ECB have also come under pressure from sources like the French government who feel the current strong Euro rates are damaging exports and hurting prospects of European recovery, so I suspect if you are holding Euro it may be wise to get rid of them soon.

USD

The US has also seen much better news on the jobs and growth front but despite this the Dollar is very weak against the pound and the Euro.  The problem is that the Federal Reserve still seem very cautious about the pace of the recovery with the new head of the Fed Janet Yellen suggesting they would not start raising interest rates until at least 6 months after they finish their Quantitative Easing program- this could still be a while yet leaving many investors to shun the Dollar because they don’t think they will get much of a return in the near future.  In my view though I think a big correction is in order, because as soon as the markets get wind of US interest rate rises, there will be more support for the Dollar, and the Fed won’t keep ignoring good economic news.  US retail figures are published next week so keep a close eye on those.

AUD And Any Other Currency

Lots of strong Aussie jobs figures out the other night, and the RBA have been pretty clear in recent months that they are at the end of their rate cutting cycle suggesting the Aussie is unlikely to fall any further significantly, although they are also concerned that the Aussie isn’t allowed to appreciate in value too much.  Stop loss and limit orders could prove useful here given the peaks and troughs we are seeing.  If you would like more information on a different currency, or would like some suggested options on your specific requirements, and have a currency transfer to make then please feel free to email me Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk or call me on 01494 787 478

Busy week on exchange rates! What will happen to your exchange?

Recent positive sterling moves have been exacerbated by improvements in the currency outlook for the pound. Services data today showed yet further improvements which should mean we expect only further GBP strength against most currencies, but not all! Read on to get a quick overview of important things to note regarding your pair. For a more detailed outlook and information on making international payments at better exchanges rates than banks and other sources please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPUSD – The USD is on the back foot following some bad GDP data last week. Despite an improving employment outlook the USD still stands to lose out in the future and I am sure we will see 1.70 soon. The chance of any US Interest rate hike is now miles off in the future, well behind that of the UK and the pound hence the improvements on this pairing. The USD will find favour however whether from Ukraine uncertainty or an improving economy so don’t hold out too long…

GBPEUR - The Euro appears weak against sterling but is actually very strong. If you look at the Euro against the US dollar and Australian dollar you can see it is at historically very strong levels. Much will be outlined by Thursday’s ECB decision, will they look to weaken the Euro? One interesting fact to note is that the ECB view EURUSD at 1.40 as unfavourably strong so if the trend of Euro strength, USD weakness continues the ECB may speculate over intervention into the market. Watch this space!

GBPAUD - The RBA have achieved their primary goal of weakening the Aussie, indeed this has been very successful. They are no longer targeting a weaker Aussie and improvements in the Chinese economy warrant a firmer Australian currency.

The pound looks set to be the main beneficiary of improved economic sentiments. All in all if you are planning to buy currency soon with sterling, taking stock of the current market is very sensible. We can forward buy currency and offer a range of options to limit your exposure to the market. A quick phone call or email to us really is a wise move as we are specialists with many years experience in the planning and execution of your international payments.

Hope to hear from you soon!

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

+44 (0) 1494 787 478

GBPEUR near 18 month high

GBPEUR rates have climbed this week reaching a fresh 6 week high and when ignoring a 3 week period in February a 18 month high.  This came as a result of the continual concerns in Europe around de-inflation. Earlier in the week the “engine room” of Europe, Germany, released their own inflation figures which showed a fall and initially raised the alarm bells.

As we now enter May many people are asking when the best time and what the expected range is likely to be.  My view is that this month we are likely to see the rate either climb by a little bit or to fall a big bit.  People will point towards the inflation data again in Europe and suggest that a new policy may be introduced by the European Central Bank, I personally however think that they wont. The head of the bank Mario was interviewed in Germany back on Monday and was rather clear that even though they will continue to support the economy across Europe in every way, that additional asset buying was not on the agenda.  The main drives this month as a result will come down to the micro economic releases i.e. the economic data releases about particular areas of each economy either side of the channel. Examples of this include interest rate, unemployment, PMI data ect.

These releases are normally published at the beginning of the month as they are on data of the month before.  The market will always have a forecast of what the data will show and therefore we can make a prediction on what the reaction will be on the currency market and therefore how it could affect your money and trade.  Monday is a bank holiday in the UK following Europe’s close down earlier this week meaning a majority of the key data releases which are expected to impact the GBPEUR pairing are due on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Personally I expect Wednesday to be the key day and potentially provide GBPEUR traders with levels at the top end of the range expected through the whole of the month.  This is when UK GDP figures are released and expected to show an improvement.

If you are however a seller of the single currency, perhaps you have sold a property in France or have been paid for a service or product in euros the smiles are probably up side down.  There seems to be no let of in the downward trend for the GBPEUR pairing and generally long term rates are expected to slowly climb.  Saying that however the currency market will never move in a straight line meaning timing a trade remains incredibly important when getting the best price. For example timing a £200,00 transfer over the last 7 days wisely could have given you in excess of €3,000 more. Enough for a new bathroom or kitchen.

Here we offer a number of services aimed at helping people trading in the currency markets. From RATE ALERTS to SPIKE notifications, all of which can help.  PLUS with the underling truth that we can save you money on your exchange compared to other banks and brokers you are in safe hands. 

If you would like any more information on the above, to discuss how the market could impact your trade or would simply like a live quote please get in contact with myself Steve Eakins. I can be contacted directly via email at hse@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478

Sterling receives a boost following better than expected unemployment figures (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has had a really good morning against all major currencies this morning following much better than expected unemployment figures for the U.K and also news that after six long years wage growth has now overtaken inflation.

Both of these factors have led to a spike in the market for Sterling which is great news for anyone looking to buy foreign currency in the near future.

If you are in the process of buying a property overseas then your dream home abroad has indeed just become a little cheaper for you!

We have some European inflation data out shortly and then this afternoon we have the Canadian interest rate decision and statement so keep a keen eye on exchange rates between 3-4pm this afternoon.

Personally I think the Pound has the potential now to kick on once again as long as we see this positive trend continue in terms of economic data.

If you are looking to buy or sell foreign currency in the near future then it is well worth getting in touch with me directly. Not only can I help you achieve better exchange rates than your bank or current broker but I can also help you with the timing of your transaction with years of knowledge of the currency markets. Feel free to email  me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what your requirements are and a contact number and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.

Do you need to exchange foreign currency? Whether you plan to use your bank or already have a currency broker in place we can more than likely save you a great deal of money! (Daniel Wright)

I have now had thousands of new clients contact me through this site in the 4 years I have been running it and have found that I have been  able to save the vast majority a great deal of money on their foreign exchange needs.

Some were planning to just send money through their banks and others have used a broker a few times already if not for years…. I would say 99% of people that have got in touch have got a better rate through me than the other options they have available.

For the sake of taking two minutes to email me directly you may potentially save yourself thousands of Pounds so if you feel that our award winning exchange rates and level of customer service may be of use then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk

Benefits of you getting in touch and dealing with me are:

  • I will be your personal account manager, so you have one point of contact for all transfers
  • We have been trading for over 14 years and are one of the UK’s leading specialist foreign exchange companies with over 45,000 satisfied clients
  • We are registered with the FCA and Authorised as a Payments Institution
  • We have achieved Best Currency Deals, Best Currency Provider and Best Exchange Rates 3 years running by the Sunday Times as well as more recently by The Telegraph. I am confident I will get you the best rate.
  • We have been recently voted as a finalist in the Orange ‘National Business Awards’ for customer service
  • We are purely an execution only service and we do not speculate with your funds, or company funds

If you feel that you are not getting the very best rate of exchange that you can through your bank or current broker or feel that there is room for improvement on the service side of things then it may be prudent to get in touch.

Once again all you need to do is email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a contact number and a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Next week we have a fairly busy start with key inflation data on Tuesday morning for the U.K followed by unemployment figures on Wednesday, keep checking back here for further information on how this affects the strength of the Pound.

 

Two Important considerations forecasting Pound Sterling Exchange Rates

Good afternoon Readers! The pound is at some truly excellent levels currently, levels that should not be easily dismissed in the hope of much better rates. If you need to buy or sell currency there are a few pointers to note that will make your life easier and your wallet heavier!

Accept that you will not get the ‘top’ or the ‘bottom’ of the market. All too often I am managing one of my client’s currency exposure and they base all their calculations on a recent high. So for example selling Euros to buy pounds at 1.19 or buying Euros with pounds at 1.22. If you do this you are likely to be disappointed. Speak to me about what is a more realistic rate to achieve by calling 01494 787 478 or why not email me jmw@currencies.co.uk

Do your research! There can be major difference between the exchange rates offered by banks and currency brokers like us. But there can also be major differences between the rates offered by different brokers. Here at poundsterlingforecast.com we seek to undercut other brokers and on large volumes the differences can be significant.

GBPEUR is currently 1,2131, GBPUSD is 1.6751, GBPAUD is 1.7921 and GBPCAD is 1.8261

Getting the best exchange rate on a large volume currency transfer (£10,000 +) makes a big difference to the amount you receive. If you are transferring a sum of this size and want to learn the current forecast please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk for the very best rates and latest news on what will move your rate!

Jonathan

 

RBA minutes lend support to the Australian Dollar. Focus now on the UK’s budget and Bank of England minutes tomorrow (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has started poorly against  most majors pushing close to the 1.18 territory on GBP/EUR, back into the 1.65s for cable (GBP/USD) and 1.82s on GBP/AUD.

The Australian dollar has rallied following the release of the latest minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia. In their assessment they were clear that it would be unlikely to see further interest rate cuts in the near future and they also appear to have taken a different stance on the value of the Aussie. Previously the RBA had always cited concerns over the strength of the dollar and the impact this would have on their exports. This view seems to have now somewhat changed and the central bank said that “decline in the exchange rate seen to date would assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy”. This suggests the RBA is comfortable with the current level, has the recent sell off for the Aussie stopped for now?

Looking at the pounds moves this week and the main talking point will be tomorrows budget. Other areas should also be focused on with a speech from Mark Carney this evening, should he be cautiously optimistic, as he has been in the past, will the pound find some strength this afternoon? Also tomorrow will see the release of the Bank of England minutes at 09:30. This will give insight as to how the MPC voted at the last interest meeting and will give a nod towards future monetary policy the bank may have in store.

As mentioned we also have the budget at 12:30 which could be a market mover as well depending on any revisions to the growth and borrowing forecasts. Alongside patting himself on the back it will be interesting to see what Osborne puts out on offer and how this affects sterling exchange rates.

Finally looking at the US dollar, Wednesday will also be an important day with the release of the Federal Reserve minutes and their interest rate decision. Rates are expected to remain on hold but look for clues as to what the bank may have in store for future tapering, a continuation in current policy and I would expect support for the dollar.

To get further insight into the currency service we provide and to discuss the current market trends in more detail please do not hesitate to contact me. I would be happy to run through the service and the various contracts we can offer to see if we can help you save money when compared to your current provider. Please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

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