Tag Archives: currency

Sterling exchange rates are struggling for direction, where next for the Pound? (Joseph Wright)

After beginning the week in downtrodden fashion, Sterling exchange rates today have posted some surprising gains once again with the GBP/EUR rate almost hitting 1.29, and GBP/USD trading as high as 1.4655.

I don’t think many would have expected these levels on Monday morning when Sterling was being heavily sold off. The bad start to the week was due to prominent ‘Brexit’ based polls suggesting that the ‘Brexiteers’ have been gaining support as of late, and this uncertainty weighed on the value of the Pound like it has done for much of this year.

Today’s boost was off the back of the latest Halifax HPI figures coming out better than expected, and they demonstrated an increase in house prices of 0.6% which boosted sentiment towards the Pound, driving up it’s value.

This positive sentiment surrounding the Pound today over-road a number of positives for the Euro recently. Firstly Eurozone GDP was recently revised upwards, and yesterday US Fed Reserve Chairlady gave a dovish sounding speech which boosted sentiment towards the Euro.

These examples just highlight the importance the upcoming EU Referendum has and how it’s driving GBP exchange rates at the moment. I expect the relationship between Sterling and the other major currencies to continue to be driven by EU voting (and betting) patterns.

Personally I’m expecting to see further headwinds in the lead up to the Referendum and I personally believe that the Pound is currently overvalued against both the Euro and the US Dollar, and I think we’ll see weaker levels for Sterling exchange rates on the day of the Referendum. 

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound and would like to get a better exchange rate than what your bank will offer, feel free to contact me (Joseph) on jxw@currencies.co.uk or call in and ask for me on 01494 787 478. I’m here to help you ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make the transfer, and help you benefit from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages.

3 weeks to the Referendum!

Exchange rates have slipped dramatically in the last few months as investors fears over the EU Referendum increase. Just what can we expect in the coming 3 weeks ahead of this historic occasion? Well I think it is likely that exchange rates will continue to fall in the coming 3 weeks as we get nearer to the Referendum and the pound is likely to retest the lows that have already been seen this year. The market will have to take account of the possibility of the UK leaving the EU and this will need to be reflected in the price of the currency as we approach the Referendum date. The polls are going to be the main drivers on the exchange rate as we get closer to the event I expect the ranges for pound sterling exchange rates to fluctuate in the recent bands that we have become so used to.

I predict GBPEUR to trade between 1.18 (Leave) and 1.40 (Remain) whilst GBPUSD should trade between 1.33 (Leave) to 1.52 (Remain). GBPAUD will I believe perform in a range of 1.82 (Leave) – 2.12 (Remain). There is likely to be big swings in the coming weeks as we the polls suggest different outcomes. Only last week Remain were leading by 60% according to some, now Leave are in the running at 52% majority.

Making predictions based on these polls is quite frankly very dangerous. The largest polls are only ever sample a few thousand candidates which means they are simply not very representative. The reason the polls got the UK General Election so badly wrong last year was the fact the polls weren’t polling enough of society to really get a true gauge on voters intentions. With this vote being more uncertain than the General Election the scope for big unexpected swings is massive.

The best way to manage the uncertainty is to keep up to date with the latest movements and utilise some of the expertise we have at our disposal including the Limit Order. This allows you to automatically purchase currency once the exchange rate hits a level you have pre determined. A forward contract allows you to fix a level up to 18 month in advance of needing to make a payment removing the risk of future exchange rate fluctuations impacting the value of your currency purchase.

In the words of a great motivational speaker ‘the best way to predict the future is to create it’, leaving everything in the lap of the gods is not normally a sensible strategy when dealing with the currency markets. If you would like to learn more about your options and the process please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

EU Referendum and impact on GBPEUR!

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I was very pleased this week to be asked to feature on the BBC talking about the pound and foreign exchange. This was a big boost to my confidence and our credibility in predicting currency movements. Expectations are now for sterling to fall further in the coming weeks and months as the pressure of political uncertainty continues to weigh on GBP. If you are buying the pound rates could yet go further in your favour although next month is possibly a tricky one if you are selling or buying Euros with pounds.

March sees the European Central Bank meet on the 10th March with a high expectation we will see some further QE or Quantitative Easing. This expectation could easily cause the Euro to weaken which would present better opportunities for anyone selling the pound and buying Euros. However if you have Euros to sell (maybe after a property or sale or because you or your business gets paid in Euros) you could miss out on these 18 month highs.

According to the forecast GBPEUR should rise next month, I would say at the highest to say 1.34. This would be if the QE is more than expected or if the ECB also cuts interest rates sharply. If the ECB fails to cut or meet expectations (like they did in December) I would predict lows of 1.20 on GBPEUR. Monday 29th February will be an interesting day because we have Eurozone Inflation data which will give us some ideas on what to expect in March from the ECB. After March I think the EU Referendum will weigh further on GBPEUR and depending of course on what has happened rates could easily retest the lower 1.20’s. In short the pound is likely to remain under pressure, with the Scottish Referendum and last year’s General Election much of the weakness for the pound was in the weeks leading up the event. With the vote on the 23rd June there are many more months ahead which the pound is likely to struggle to perform well in.

If you have a transfer to consider involving sterling and wish for some information on what is happening and what could happen as we approach the Referendum and after please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk. This would not just be for GBPEUR transfers it would also be for GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPZAR, GBPCHF, and many more. If you have a currency transfer involving sterling 2016 is a pivotal year for the pound and making plans is a very wise move. I look forward to hearing from you and answering any emails.

Latest media coverage from our writers! What next for the pound?

bbcnew3Last night I was very pleased to be asked to appear on BBC News to discuss the ‘Brexit’ question and Sterling weakness. I was asked how I thought upcoming events would influence the pound moving forward and as regular readers will know in my opinion the future is because of this very issue not looking too rosy for the pound. At the beginning of this year I wrote here how I believed the pound would like lose value (you can read the post here) and I can offer further predictions on Sterling exchange rates here. The remaining question of course is will this continue? Well my answer is that yes I believe it will but following such a torrid day yesterday this may not manifest immediately. In fact the rest of this week could be quieter but that isn’t any reason to hold back from making plans! Thursday is an important day with the latest GDP figures for the UK, sterling is unlikely to come under renewed pressure again this week but could easily trade in the recent lower ranges against most currencies.

When should I buy Euros?

If you need to buy Euros with pounds and want a little more for your money make sure you are ready to buy by the 10th March! Many of my clients are concerned with GBPEUR movements and the one hope for Euro buyers with pounds is next month’s ECB decision on Quantitative Easing on the 10th March.  If (and it is an if) the ECB embark on further QE this should weaken the Euro making it more attractive to buy Euros. Thursday this week is also important because we have Eurozone Inflation data which will give us a clearer picture on what to expect next month for the European Central Bank (ECB).  Essentially worse Inflation data makes it more likely we will see more QE in March. Understanding upcoming economic events are key to making some plans on when to make your currency purchase so if you are unsure or just wish to have a chat about your requirements please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

If you are selling Euros dare I ask what you are waiting for? Since November you have made 10% on your currency deal. This is normally the kind of mov
ement you may see between the high and low in a year. Current Euro to GBP rates are the best in 16 months and whilst of course they may improve further if I was selling Euros I would be very worried about next month’s ECB decision and just how this could impact my purchase. If you have Euros to sell and wish to learn some information on the best time to sell in this market, please email jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will USD to GBP rates improve further?

This week is the release of US GDP figures which will help provide some further direction on cable prices. GBP weakness has helped drag the pair down to fresh lows touching close to a 7 year high but I cannot see it getting too much better in the short term. Thursday and Friday’s GDP data will be key to determining the next moves but I do feel much of the bad news for sterling is priced in and because of a high chance of the Federal Reserve reviewing their previous bold comments that they will raise rates again, the dollar will weaken.

I have worked a specialist foreign exchange broker for 6 years personally assisting both businesses and private clients with their foreign exchange requirements. I am a big fan of talking abut the market and am very pleased to be quoted in the press and other articles online. If you are considering a currency transaction involving the pound this is a very interesting market at present and I would be very happy to discuss with you all your options and the latest forecast for you. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk with an outline of your situation and preferably a phone number, I will respond as quickly as I can!

Inflation data tomorrow morning and unemployment on Wednesday morning to be the main focus for Sterling in the next 48 hours (Daniel Wright)

A better start to the week for Sterling against the Euro however a drop against the Australian and New Zealand Dollar are the main things to report today.

Share prices generally rose and investors around the world generally seemed to have a little more confidence, compared to a week of doom and gloom last week. When the markets are calm the riskier currencies such as the AUD and NZD tend to become more expensive to buy and the Euro has been getting a little cheaper…. We saw quite the opposite throughout the course of last week.

Tomorrow, asides from being impacted yet again by global risk appetite we have key inflation figures out for the U.K at 09:30am. Expectations are for a slight rise to 0.3% which would be welcome news for Sterling and should give the Pound a little boost. The Bank of England target for inflation is 2% so any movement towards that sum is seen as good news and may help Sterling.

Wednesday again gives us the chance to see a good morning for Sterling exchange rates as we have unemployment figures for the U.K at 09:30am. Expectations again are pointing towards a decrease in unemployment from 5.1% to 5% which would be good news for the U.K. and the Pound.

Anyone with a currency exchange to carry out in the near future must be aware that although it does seem like the Pound may have a good few days, these releases do not always come out as analysts are predicting so there is still a hefty risk to the down side.

All in all the next 48 hours will no doubt be volatile for Sterling exchange rates so if you are looking to carry out a currency exchange involving buying or selling the Pound then it is extremely important that you have a proactive currency broker on your side.

If your requirement is property based then do not fall into the trap of going with the broker that your property agent has thoroughly recommended  as it is more than likely that they will be getting paid a commission should you use that brokerages services so it is doubtful you will get the best rate of exchange.

If you would like to speak with me (Daniel Wright) directly about your exchange and would appreciate a non biased view, along with a quote to see if you could actually save money over your bank or any broker you are currently in contact with then you are more than welcome.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk or call me during U.K trading hours on 01494 787 478 or 0044 1494 787 478 if calling from overseas. Please ensure you ask for me Daniel Wright directly. I look forward to speaking with you.

 

Sterling has another exceedingly volatile day against Euro, Dollar and all majors – Global markets remain fragile (Daniel Wright)

It has been yet another busy day on the trading floor and we have seen yet another volatile 24 hours for Sterling exchange rates.

Markets around the world appear to be exceedingly nervous at present and there is a little worry that we may have one hell of a storm brewing ahead.

In the past year we have seen issues with the European economy, issues with the Chinese economy, oil prices dropping off, bank share prices plummet and the potential of any interest rate hike for the U.K slowly but surely be kicked further and further down the road so it is no surprise that the markets are acting a little out of the ordinary.

My personal opinion is still that Sterling is a little undervalued however when you do see negative movements like we have witnessed of late then the question does start to arise of how much further can it drop before we see a recovery? We all wish we truly knew the answer to this question as we would make a great deal of money…

The key with these sort of situations if you are due to be making a large exchange is to make sure you protect your position. Many people fall into the trap of thinking that they have to carry out their currency needs in one large chunk, and to time that correctly is almost impossible, along with the fact that you leave yourself extremely exposed.

If you are in the position that you do need to buy or sell a large quantity of currency for your business or indeed for the purchase or sale of a property then it is well worth getting in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly so that I can work together with you to try and maximise your money. I have been assisting clients in this position for nearly 10 years and I have been writing on this site for over 5 years so I am well positioned to not only help you get top commercial rates of exchange but also to ensure you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side at all times.

If you are stuck in a tricky position due to the latest movements and you are finding that you are stuck on your own with nowhere to turn the feel free to get in touch with me directly and I will be more than happy to call you personally. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk or call me on 01494 787 478 during U.K office hours of 08:30am – 18:00pm (please ask for Daniel Wright). You do not need to be based in the U.K for us to be able to help you.

Economic data due out tomorrow that may impact Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

Another fairly quiet day on the markets today for those with an interest in buying or selling Sterling, however tomorrow I would expect to see a little more volatility.

The last working day of the month can lead to sharp movements without warning as we see month end flows…. basically companies and funds netting off positions in advance of a new month. Quite often on the last working day of the month Sterling can become quite volatile against all major currencies as we see this happen , so it is important if you have a fairly imminent transfer to make that you keep in close contact with a proactive broker.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we do not only give you up to date market information but we can help you with exchanges too. We can get the very top levels of exchange on the markets due to our vast buying power and we pride ourselves on helping our clients with the timing of when they exchange their currency. If you would like me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site and a Director at Currencies.co.uk to help you with a transaction or merely to give you a quote then feel free to email me personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get straight in touch.

Economic data of note tomorrow is European inflation data, out at 10:00am (expectations are for a jump to 0.4%) which may give the Euro a little boost if matching that figure. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it fall short and to offer an opportunity to purchase Euros at a slightly better rate.

Later in the day we have U.S Growth figures – These are due out at 13:30pm and expectations for this is a level of 0.8%. This release can impact all major currencies as they may alter global attitude to risk.

For those with a Canadian Dollar interest we have growth figures for Canada at exactly the same time so be aware we may see a little volatility shortly after this period.

If you are looking to exchange any currency in the near future then it is well worth getting in touch with me. You can call me during U.K office hours on 01494 787 478 (Please ask for Daniel Wright) or you are welcome to email me with a description of what you need to do on Djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to put together a game plan together with you.

 

Sterling is in for another tough week!

Sterling losses we have been predicting manifested this morning with GBPEUR touching 1.3250 in early morning trading. Sterling to Euro buyers are the main losers in this one horse race as confidence returns in the Eurozone. Anyone holding sterling has taken a hit lately except for GBPAUD and GBPNZD buyers as worries in China feed through into these currencies weakening them. If you need to buy or sell the pound understanding what has driven the rate to these fresh lows is a good idea because if you are still looking at the market with 2015 goggles on you are likely to be misled.

The week ahead is not looking good for the pound

Thursday we have the Bank of England Interest Rate decision which I expect to cause GBP weakness. I predict that Ian McCafferty, one of the members of the MPC who has been calling for an interest rate hike will backtrack on this vote leaving the pound even weaker than it is today. If you are buying a foreign currency with sterling the transfer might be much more expensive towards the end of the week. If you are buying the pound this release might help you to get a better deal! For more information on the markets and all of your options please feel free to speak to me Jonathan by calling 01494 787 478 in UK business hours or email jmw@currencies.co.uk. I am very confident I can offer you a better rate than other sources, if you are reading this and would like to learn more please contact me, what have you to lose?

Brexit Fears

The UK is this year or next likely to have a referendum on membership of the European Union. Some calls and reports suggest this could be as early as this summer! European Union membership is a very important feature of the UK’s attractive proposition to global investors. The uncertainty of the UK leaving this key position of global influence could have major ramifications for the future. If you are buying a foreign currency with sterling in the future the Brexit fears are something you should be taking seriously. There is a chance the UK will of course stay in the EU but the uncertainty in the future is leading to GBP losses. So think sensibly about what might happen. Even though you personally might believe that the UK will remain part of the EU, if you are buying a foreign currency with sterling in the next 6 month there is a very strong likelihood sterling will drop in that time frame.

How to mitigate risk

To mitigate the risk of buying currency you have the options to buy a forward contract. For a small deposit (loosely 10%) you can fix a rate on the total amount you need to buy fixing the settlement date (the other 90%) for the balance up to one year in advance. This is perfect for private clients buying property and businesses trying to manage their currency exposure as well. By fixing the rate now you will know exactly what you will be getting in advance allowing you to plan and manage your finances.

Buying foreign currency can be very daunting but it needn’t be. We are here to offer specialist and comprehensive information on financial markets to help you make an informed decision on when to make your trade. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I am very confident I can offer you a better deal than other companies and the banks, if you find our information useful I am sure our exchange rates will also impress you.

Will the pound drop further?

‘The best way to predict the future is to study the past’ said Robert Kiyosaki. So let us look at the past and see why things have happened. And then let us ask ourselves if these situations have been resolved and if therefore they are likely to become features on sterling developments again. My name is Jonathan Watson and I would be happy to hear from you to provide some feedback on your foreign exchange transfer. Please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk 

The pound has been dumped today because…

China

George Osborne has stated today worries about the global economy are having and will have a marked impact on the UK economy. The UK is very sensitive to developments in the global economy as the UK’s largest sector, Services relies so heavily on overseas business. If China is experiencing stock market wobbles and their economy is slowing down this will hurt the UK. The question is will this continue or not? I think most would agree this will occur and therefore this will continue to hurt sterling and dent confidence in the future.

Brexit

The UK might be about to leave the European Union. This could lead to monumental shifts in UK law and business, this will have an impact on the UK economy and our relationship with the rest of the world. Even if the vote is to stay in and stick with the status quo, investors holding sterling will be very concerned about this predicament and the potential outcome. Will this continue to impact GBP? You bet! We haven’t even really started to hear the arguments yet, this story will be big and sterling will react accordingly. Remember the Scottish referendum and the UK election? If not then please email me and I can fill you in on the battles some clients had with wild swings on sterling rates.

Bad Data means No UK Interest rate hike in 2016

The UK data of late has been poor! We are therefore witnessing an unwinding of safe haven positions from last year. Let me explain… The UK and the pound are viewed favourably by investors because the UK has a strong government and a solid currency that investors like to hold as part of their portfolio. Part of this reasoning was a belief the UK was raising interest rates in the future because the UK economy was improving in the future. With a rising interest rate investors feel more confident to hold that currency as the interest rate hikes means they will earn more on their investment in that currency. Think if you had two choices between two bank accounts, one with a higher interest rate. Which would you choose? Naturally the higher interest rate. The same happens on currency, investors will choose the currency with a higher interest rate or the one they believe will raise interest rates in the future.

Therefore (congratulations on reading this far and not giving up, I know the intricacies of the FX market are not too easily digestable – please don’t give up!) the UK is less likely to raise interest rates because of the poor data this year. As a result the pound is being sold… will this continue in the future? Well so long as the data declines yes. If however the data shows improvements the pound will rise but with the factors above seemingly pointing to a one way street for GBP sentiments, I wouldn’t be banking on this too much if I have a foreign currency to buy with the pound.

The US is raising their interest rate!

The US raised their interest rate in December and are widely expected to again this year. Investors who are holding sterling for the reasons above are therefore switching to USD because they believe over the long term the USD will be more beneficial to hold in the longer term.

What should I do then?

The foreign exchange market is like the weather, you cannot accurately predict it. It is a reflection of investor sentiment on the respective currencies. As demand increases so does the value of said currency, as demand falls, the currency weakens. As a specialist currency broker with many years of experience handling private and business clients foreign exchange exposure I am well placed to offer market insight and hopefully allow you to make an informed decision on what will suit you and your situation. there are various options too to buy currency including fixing a currency purchase on a forward contract (pay 10% now, the rest up to 1 year later) and the Limit Order which is an automatic order at a certain point guaranteeing your rate even if hit for only a second.

My name is Jonathan Watson and I would be happy to hear from you to provide some feedback on how to manage your foreign exchange transfer. Please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 in UK business hours and ask to speak to me Jonathan.

I cannot tell you exactly what to do. But I can offer you an educated insightful outlook on your deal plus an exchange rate which I am positive will save you money over other currency brokers and your banks.

Thank you for reading, I hope it has been useful and I hope to hear from you very soon!

Pound drops off – Beware of thinner trading levels during the festive period (Daniel Wright)

Sterling has had a fairly negative day against most major currencies during trading today even though there was very little for the markets to feed off in terms of economic data.

To be honest there is not a huge amount out during the course of the week which would generally lead to a quieter and range bound market but due to much thinner levels of trading and lots of positions being closed off for the year this is and will not be the case for the next week or so.

Late December can be a tough time for anyone looking to buy or sell foreign currency for their business or to deal with a property purchase or sale as the markets can swing quite rapidly without warning which of course can end up costing a large sum of money.

Large funds or companies may well net off their positions to end the year and even smaller tranches of money moving around can have a much bigger impact on exchange rates as the levels of trading are just so much thinner than usual.

One of the reasons for today’s movements may be down to London fixes – This is where benchmark rates and gold prices are decided (usually at 4pm London time) and can have an impact on exchange rates shortly before and after the time it is agreed. More information on this can be found by clicking here if you are interested.

If you are looking to buy or sell foreign currency in the coming days, weeks or months then it is well worth having not just any broker on your side, but a proactive one. We help clients exchange anything from £1000 to multi million Pound transactions all around the world day in day out and not only offer rates better than elsewhere but we also keep our clients well aware of any opportunities that come their way should we see a big shift in their favour or against them.

If you feel that we may be beneficial to you then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk or calling me during office hours on 01494 787 478 and I will be more than happy to discuss how I can assist you personally.