Tag Archives: currency

How will UKIP affect sterling?

UKIP continue to make gains in polls and are certainly likely to be a thorn in the side of the more established parties, indeed they already have been. But is this more a reflection of the tough times ahead for the UK (and the pound) or a flash in the pan protest vote?

UKIP have the power to severely undermine confidence in sterling. there is tremendous uncertainty posed by a party with no solid economic idea from what I have seen. Aside from promising to withdraw from Europe and playing on peoples immigration fears it is difficult to find concrete policy. Let it be known that any withdrawal from Europe would have wide reaching consequences for the UK economy and hence the pound. Whilst it might be welcomed we examine the relationship with Europe the economic benefits of being part of Europe should not be underestimated.

We shall learn much more about the true effects of UKIP on the pound in the next few months as we have bi-election and then the General Election in May 2015. The effect on sterling from increased political uncertainty will undoubtedly be negative and anyone hoping to see sterling keep climbing in 2014 and beyond might be disappointed.

To keep up to date with the pound and how important events affect your exchange please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Exchange rate super saver – Last day of the month/quarter and we are feeling generous so contact us today! (Daniel Wright)

Having helped thousands of new clients that have contacted me through this site I thought I may put an offer out there for anyone that has not already got in touch yet reads our updates on a regular basis.

If this relates to you  then I welcome you to contact me directly with how much you are looking to exchange, what rate you have been offered and your contact number and I am confident I will be able to beat anything with our one day currency sale.

Any small improvement on an exchange rate can make your currency much cheaper to buy so this really is a great opportunity if you know you have a pending currency transfer to make.

Please note we do not deal in cash/ travel money.

All you need to do is email me (Daniel Wright) the editor and owner of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk with your details and I will get in touch personally.

We now have almost 60,000 regular readers each month and we would like to thank all of you for supporting our site over the years.

 

Will sterling continue to rise

The pound remains at elevated levels and it would appear it shall continue to do so. Expectations of Quantitative Easing in the Eurozone next month are keeping the Euro weak and following the dollar’s recent surge investor appetite for favourite the safe haven looks set to remain cooled for the time being.

The pound was looking in serious danger on the back of a possible Yes vote in the referendum but these fears have now cooled with the No vote. There are however significant reasons for concern for GBP weakness down the line with the UK election and the possibility of the EU referendum to follow. These topics could make the Scottish referendum look like a Parish Councillors meeting by comparison…

All in all the news is generally very positive for the pound at present but further gains in the absence of something ‘new’ to impress investors look limited. If you need to buy a foreign currency with sterling capitalising on these extremely impressive levels might be the best course of action. To be notified of any impressive spikes please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

Eurozone Inflation Data and impact on GBPEUR Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

Inflation appears to be the main focus for both the UK and Eurozone over the last few weeks as it may have a huge impact on Sterling Euro exchange rates over the next few days.

Inflation in the UK has fallen recently from 1.9% to 1.6% which suggests that an interest rate rise in the UK may be pushed back further in to the future rather than coming sooner as previously expected. The Bank of England target is for 2% and if it consistently gets close or surpasses it then the likely scenario would be for an interest rate rise.

Eurozone inflation is currently running at just 0.4% which is worryingly low and there are fears that it may fall even further tomorrow when the data is released at 10am. If it falls we could see the ECB being forced at next week’s meeting to put in place some form of monetary policy change which could result in Euro weakness.

Also due out in the morning is Eurozone unemployment data which is arguably on of the most important factors in the economy as low unemployment has a direct impact on growth. The expectation is for 11.5% so anything lower could again result in Euro weakness.

Looming over the Eurozone is still the issue with the French government which was dissolved on Monday following internal rows within the cabinet at to whether to increase austerity measures or spend their way out of the crisis.

If you’re thinking about making a transfer to buy Euros over the next few days in may be worth seeing how tomorrow goes before buying your currency.

If you would like a free quote then feel free to contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Have sterling gains stalled? Three big reasons to think twice…

There is no shortage of the positive things for the pound at present. It is the only major currency genuinely on course to raise interest rates and the British economy is predicted to be one of the fastest growing in the next few months. Unemployment is falling and the economy is growing, the green shoots have for some finally sprouted…

A quick look up ahead however shows that the path to a stronger pound isn’t quite as clear as some forecasters seem to believe. There are three key elements to look out for.

 – Political Uncertainty – 

Usually ahead of an election a currency weakens. The Scottish Referendum in September still has many unanswered questions and it would be foolish to discount late swing votes. Markets can be fearful creatures and if sentiments turn negative the pound may lose value. Next year is the General Election which could provide plenty of opportunities for GBP weakness. Even though the Bank of England is independent from the Government will rising interest rates be an election topic? Already portrayed as the ‘mean’ party, the Tories may struggle to maintain their economic plan under a new coalition and Labour’s economic plans look very anti – business…

There is also the prospect of the UK leaving the EU, again it is the uncertainty these events present which could undermine GBP gains…

- Rising Interest Rates may derail the economy -

Rising Interest rates could do more harm than good! Property prices are principally rising in the South East, mainly London and this is skewing the market. Other areas of the country are actually seeing prices fall or remain stagnant. Rising Interest rates may serve to undermine recovery in the housing market across the housing market making it more difficult for purchasers to get a mortgage and reducing the disposable income (that is spent in the wider economy helping for example Retail sales) those with mortgages have.

Many commentators have pointed out we are in a new ‘low interest rate’ economy globally. There are drawbacks to this but perhaps the UK needs to be stronger on its feet before interest rates rise.

- A strong pound can be bad for exports and growth prospects -

There have been some of the UK’s biggest companies this week highlighting the detrimental effect the strong pound is having on their profits. Rising interest rates may serve to strengthen the pound further making UK manufacturing and service less competitive in the global economy.

All in all the pound is at multi year highs against many currencies. Assuming rates will remain where they are is a foolish assumption and anyone considering moving larger volumes of currency should note the difference even 1 cent can make on a big volume of money.

If you need to buy or sell a foreign currency we can offer assistance  understanding the market and getting the best rates on your deals. We are a group of specialist currency brokers writing this blog for your help. Please feel free to contact me Jonathan directly to learn more.

jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

 

U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures to be the key to Sterling performance tomorrow (Daniel Wright)

After another fairly quiet day on the market for the Pound our heads now turn to GDP figures released tomorrow morning at 09:30am. The figure is merely a revision of what we have already had released, however any adjustments outside of expectations may lead to a fairly volatile finish to the week for Sterling.

Following the U.S and their shock revision down to -2.9% in trading yesterday I would be surprised to see anything quite as dramatic come from the U.K and the good news for those looking to buy foreign currency with the Pound is that the figure is expected to be at 3.1% for the year and 0.8% for Q1 of 2014 – a lot better than the States.

We have a similar release from France at 7:45am and then some European Consumer confidence and business sentiment data out at 10:00am so there is plenty to shake the market up throughout tomorrow mornings trading. Personally I would not be surprised to see Sterling have a good solid end to the week as nothing has really come out to hinder our progress… Mark Carney could have thrown a real spanner in the works in either of his speeches yet he didn’t and economic data has be reasonably good.

If you are looking to buy or indeed sell foreign currency in the coming days, weeks or months then please do feel free to contact me directly, you can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to call you personally. I look forward to speaking with you.

Will sterling rise higher still? When will this happen?

This week we predicted the pound could rise higher and so it has. Improvements in the Unemployment picture have given sterling a leg up against its peers which represents yet more fantastic opportunities for anyone buying a foreign currency with sterling. Assuming the forecasts for GBP strength are right, how high will the pound rise and when will we see the next spikes?

Despite the awareness of problems in the UK’s recent economic surge there appears to be little stopping the pound at present. A suspected housing bubble, problems of low wages and fears of an over reliance on consumer spending have all done little to dent confidence in the pound which seems to be going from strength to strength.The overriding factor is the fact the UK is on an economic upturn well established versus a Eurozone effectively going backwards and a US still reliant on a QE programme. The UK offers an excellent place to invest with the prospect of higher interest rates and a more buoyant economy in 2015.

Next week is a range of data to move the market, all of which should be quite interesting and could provide yet more opportunities for the brave! Wednesday and Friday next week look like the busier days to me. Wednesday we have the Bank of England Minutes form their latest meeting and Friday PSNB (Public Sector Net Borrowing) data. Last month PSNB caused the pound to drop a little so these releases are by no means guarantees you will get more for your money!

Ultimately no one can tell you what is going to happen on the market. However our position as currency market specialists gives us strong insight into what may happen, plus we have the experience and expertise in place to properly manage your exposure to the currency markets. For more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

US Data This Afternoon Noteworthy But Next Week Is Crunch Time For Most Exchange Rates (Colm Gilhooly)

USD

US GDP data this afternoon is likely to have some bearing on global confidence, and certainly may impact on exchange rates for the US Dollar which has been strengthening over the last few days versus a pound with little data out to support it, and a Euro which is coming under fire from speculation over ECB policy.  In my mind it is unlikely to cause huge shifts in the market, unless of course the figures are well wide of the mark, because most sentiment around the Dollar is largely being dictated by the dovish tones of the Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve.

Nest week we have Manufacturing PMI for the States on Monday and round off the week with US non-farm payrolls, which could be the catalyst for USD strength if they show improvement as they may encourage a cautious Fed to consider changing stance.  I think the USD is undervalued and will gradually strengthen back slightly as economic conditions improve stateside, however it is likely to be a rocky road as all the uncertainty will keep the currency markets jumping one way and another.  If you are looking to buy USD then feel free to email cmg@currencies.co.uk  and I would be happy to help.

EUR

We also have German retail figures out tomorrow morning but again next week is key for short term Euro exchange rates.  We have CPI data out on Tuesday and GDP out on Wednesday, and then on Thursday it is the one everyone has been waiting for – the ECB rate decision and press conference.  Weak European inflation and low growth rates, acknowledged as a concern by the ECB, have led many to believe there could be some policy change by Draghi & Co to stimulate things and this has resulted in the pricing in of a weaker Euro over the last couple of weeks.  If there is some change (eg a further interest rate cut, or some other extraordinary measure) then we could see the Euro weaken further, but no action may give a reprieve to Euro sellers in the short term.  If you are buying or selling Euro and want to use our currency transfer service to get the best exchange rate, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

GBP

We do have some mortgage approvals and housing data next week alongside Services PMI, all of which could continue the positive perceptions of the UK economy, but it seems unlikely we will see any change of policy by the MPC at the Bank of England meeting given their recent public comments.  In all I expect the pound to be relatively well supported against most currencies as I dont expect the data to be anything other than positive.

AUD

If you are buying Aussie Dollars, then not only will all the US data have an impact due to the influence it will have on global monetary policy, but we also have the next RBA decision in the early hours of Tuesday morning and then the latest GDP releases on Wednesday.  The RBA have stopped any possibility of further interest rate cuts however they have acknowledged the strength of the AUD is a concern and have lowered growth forecasts for the following quarters as a result in a move no doubt designed to weaken the currency and boost exports.  Again because of the importance of the news I think it would be worth preparing to move quickly in case of a big spike or trough caused by these announcements- stop loss and limit orders seem to have worked well on the Aussie recently so if you want to find out how you can use us to do this then feel free to email cmg@currencies.co.uk

CHF

Not much in the way of Swiss data out until the end of next week but the CPI figures will be important.  however the Swiss Franc is likely to be heavily influenced by global sentiment so watch USD EUR rates closely, and obviously the UK releases as well!

CAD

Canada also has its interest rate decision next week on Wednesday and jobs figures on Friday.  The CAD has strengthened significantly in the last month against the pound and I expect that these announcements could be an opportunity however GDP figures this afternoon are more likely to have an immediate impact so forget next week for now and concentrate on this afternoon!  Once again if you would like help to get the best deal on your currency, especially if buying Canadian Dollars, or need to sell the loonie, then why not see what we can offer compared with your bank?  Email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and we can go through some figures and compare savings.

Save Money Compared With Your Bank On Currency Transfers!

As a company we specialise in foreign exchange for currency transfers- the blogs are designed to give extra information so you can time your exchange and keep a track of the currency market.  However the real benefit comes from the exchange rate we can offer to save you money so don’t be shy get in touch and see what rates we can offer you.  Simply email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to go through an overview of your requirements and see what we can do to help make the transfer as easy and cost effective as possible.

Great Time To Buy Dollars And Euros With Sterling (Colm Gilhooly)

The last couple of days have seen some great buying opportunities for both Euros and Dollars, with sterling reaching near the highest levels since 2008 on the Dollar and near a year high on the Euro.

GBP

So what is causing all the movement?  Well firstly we have had a lot of good UK data out over the last few months with unemployment falling, growth forecasts improving, and house prices rising, all of which has given the pound a much needed boost.  The UK is expected to increase interest rates at some point in the not too distant future- some analysts think possibly as soon as the end of this year, but most point towards the middle of 2015.  The Bank of England seem keen to keep playing down the possibility of big hikes so any improvement is likely to be gradual and long term, but it is certainly providing support for sterling compared with the exceptionally low levels of the last few years.

EUR

Data in Europe on the other hand has not been particularly brilliant, and whilst growth forecasts have improved slightly, it is improvements from minuscule levels suggesting the Eurozone has quite a few years of catching up to do.  Of particular concern is the very low inflation levels that Mario Draghi the President of the ECB has noted is a real worry.  He has suggested recently that the ECB would consider exceptional measures to combat falling inflation if needed, and at yesterday’s press conference he went as far to suggest that they may even take action in June if the next set of inflation data was weak.  This caused a big drop for the Euro against the pound and has created a great buying opportunity because any action Draghi may take would likely damage the value of the Euro (think either negative interest rates or something like the Quantitative Easing that caused so much sterling weakness in the last few years).  The ECB have also come under pressure from sources like the French government who feel the current strong Euro rates are damaging exports and hurting prospects of European recovery, so I suspect if you are holding Euro it may be wise to get rid of them soon.

USD

The US has also seen much better news on the jobs and growth front but despite this the Dollar is very weak against the pound and the Euro.  The problem is that the Federal Reserve still seem very cautious about the pace of the recovery with the new head of the Fed Janet Yellen suggesting they would not start raising interest rates until at least 6 months after they finish their Quantitative Easing program- this could still be a while yet leaving many investors to shun the Dollar because they don’t think they will get much of a return in the near future.  In my view though I think a big correction is in order, because as soon as the markets get wind of US interest rate rises, there will be more support for the Dollar, and the Fed won’t keep ignoring good economic news.  US retail figures are published next week so keep a close eye on those.

AUD And Any Other Currency

Lots of strong Aussie jobs figures out the other night, and the RBA have been pretty clear in recent months that they are at the end of their rate cutting cycle suggesting the Aussie is unlikely to fall any further significantly, although they are also concerned that the Aussie isn’t allowed to appreciate in value too much.  Stop loss and limit orders could prove useful here given the peaks and troughs we are seeing.  If you would like more information on a different currency, or would like some suggested options on your specific requirements, and have a currency transfer to make then please feel free to email me Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk or call me on 01494 787 478

Busy week on exchange rates! What will happen to your exchange?

Recent positive sterling moves have been exacerbated by improvements in the currency outlook for the pound. Services data today showed yet further improvements which should mean we expect only further GBP strength against most currencies, but not all! Read on to get a quick overview of important things to note regarding your pair. For a more detailed outlook and information on making international payments at better exchanges rates than banks and other sources please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPUSD – The USD is on the back foot following some bad GDP data last week. Despite an improving employment outlook the USD still stands to lose out in the future and I am sure we will see 1.70 soon. The chance of any US Interest rate hike is now miles off in the future, well behind that of the UK and the pound hence the improvements on this pairing. The USD will find favour however whether from Ukraine uncertainty or an improving economy so don’t hold out too long…

GBPEUR - The Euro appears weak against sterling but is actually very strong. If you look at the Euro against the US dollar and Australian dollar you can see it is at historically very strong levels. Much will be outlined by Thursday’s ECB decision, will they look to weaken the Euro? One interesting fact to note is that the ECB view EURUSD at 1.40 as unfavourably strong so if the trend of Euro strength, USD weakness continues the ECB may speculate over intervention into the market. Watch this space!

GBPAUD - The RBA have achieved their primary goal of weakening the Aussie, indeed this has been very successful. They are no longer targeting a weaker Aussie and improvements in the Chinese economy warrant a firmer Australian currency.

The pound looks set to be the main beneficiary of improved economic sentiments. All in all if you are planning to buy currency soon with sterling, taking stock of the current market is very sensible. We can forward buy currency and offer a range of options to limit your exposure to the market. A quick phone call or email to us really is a wise move as we are specialists with many years experience in the planning and execution of your international payments.

Hope to hear from you soon!

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

+44 (0) 1494 787 478

This site is protected by Comment SPAM Wiper.