Tag Archives: data
Sterling exchange rates following inflation data – The Bank of England is stuck in a tricky position to say the least (Daniel Wright)
The Pound has risen ever so slightly this morning following inflationary data coming out slightly higher than expected.
The Bank of England would like the Pound to be weaker but the problem they face is that the lower the Pound the more imports will cost, therefore goods are more expensive which is not good for inflation.
Raising interest rates to combat inflation will lead to more expensive borrowing costs for everyone and growth being stunted due to less investment.
Not a nice position to be in – A rock and a hard place comes to mind!
For those of you that do not follow the markets the reason that this has led to the Pound gaining value is that the Bank of England do not want to have inflation getting too high and this is a sign that is is creeping up (things are getting more expensive to buy). The best way top tackle high inflation is to raise interest rates and a hike in interest rates generally is seen as positive to the currency concerned as it makes it more attractive to investors.
The currency markets do move in advance of things like this happening which is why the Pound has gained as the chance of a rate hike has increased ever so slightly.
Of course there are a lot of other factors that may affect rates in the coming days, we have the Bank of England minutes tomorrow morning which will show us how many members voted in favour of or against both Quantitative Easing and an interest rate change.
Indications that we are on the edge of further QE may be seen as negative for the Pound and the last few months this has been the more likely however any indications that members heads are moving towards a hike in rates could lead to another boost for Sterling.
Be aware we also have the budget tomorrow which in all honesty is rarely a big market mover however you always need to be cautious of a surprise popping up!
If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out from bank to bank and you want not only to maximise your exchange rates but also to receive a great level of service and assistance then feel free to contact me directly by email email@example.com with a brief description of your requirement and a contact number and I will be more than happy to call you straight back. We have won numerous awards both for our rates and customer service and I will be highly surprised if I cannot save you money over your current provider.
I look forward to hearing from you.
The pound has had a typically uncertain start to 2013 with declines in Services and Construction, but with improvements in Manufacturing. As always these early month releases have affected short term movements against currencies giving well prepared clients opportunities to maximise their rate. This site of course focuses on GBP but when looking at rates on your currency it is important to be aware of global events that may affect the currency you trade. I have chosen AUD, NZD, CAD and ZAR because there are many common themes affecting their movements. Sterling doesn’t see too many independent moves in the same way these currencies do and with the global economy the way it is, the moves on these currencies can be unexpected. An awareness of what drives your rate is key to understanding the market and getting a good deal. Whatever your level of interest in the markets always feel free to post a comment below or contact me Jonathan directly on firstname.lastname@example.org for information.
I think the big movers for the pound itself this year will stem from the prospects of further QE as well as UK growth prospects. Significant independent GBP moves should only really be affected by these concerns. For the month of January we are unlikely to see QE and henceforth a big drop for the pound looks unlikely. Therefore anyone who can hold out longer before they sell the pound for a currency may find an opportunity in the future. This means that those selling a foreign currency to buy sterling may wish to position themselves to move sooner particularly since current rates are so good.
GBPAUD – Positive data from China and improved global sentiments due to the fiscal cliff are keeping the Aussie strong. 1.60 has been a target for many of my GBPAUD buyers but this rate looks unlikely to be hit anytime soon. Conversely those selling are targeting a 1.50 so we are loosely in the middle of such rates. Current market conditions indicate to me there is more chance of the rate hitting 1.50 before 1.60 due to likelihood the Australian economy will remain strong and the fact the pound looks unlikely to stage the kind of resurgence that would enable 1.60 to be hit. The general improvement in market sentiments due to eurozone stability and resolution of the fiscal cliff back up my claim here but things can change quickly. If you are a buyer or seller of Aussies you can make an enquiry directly with me on email@example.com and I can keep you posted on developments.
GBPNZD – The Kiwi has strengthened lately as Asian data remains positive. A move towards 2 looks unlikely but we could easily see a change in sentiment down the line. As with the Aussie the current market conditions coupled with a weak pound indicate a move towards 1.90 is more likely than the higher rates. On both currencies sentiments can quickly change so some preparation ahead of needing to make an exchange will help you in achieving the best rate.
GBPCAD – The Canadian Dollar has been boosted from the fiscal cliff deal and improved global sentiments. Now back comfortably below 1.60, this could be a good time for sellers to enter the market. The Canadian economy relies heavily on the US and the indications from the US Federal Reserve QE will end in 2013 also helped the currency. Much like the Aussie and Kiwi I expect the Loonie to be well supported and to only be moved by sharp changes in sentiment. I would be surprised to see us above 1.60 in the short term although the debt ceiling negotiations could provide the kind of spikes we saw late December. If you missed the boat on buying at this time and are waiting for an improvement you could be in luck depending on how long you can hold out and how steady your nerves are.
GBPZAR – The ZAR suffered massively due to uncertainty last year. Political uncertainty is a major turn off for investors and the much lower than expected growth in South Africa due to the uncertainty dented confidence. Nevertheless the South African economy has lots going for it with many mineral resources of interest to the West and East. As with those above it looks more likely the currency has recovered somewhat and a settling of tensions globally has helped the Rand. I think this is the currency the pound is most likely to enjoy strength against simply because it is the weakest overall. Sentiments on the Rand are frayed and it will take time to restore confidence. I would not be surprised to see a move above 14 again but unless there is major uncertainty presented to markets, cannot see it moving significantly higher.
Unfortunately no one has a crystal ball to tell you exactly what will happen in the future. But an awareness of all of the fundamental issues surrounding your currency deal will help you make a decision. We aim to make things as easy and simple for our clients so even if your requirement is just a one off speaking to us could save you thousands. This site and the people behind it have won various awards for our straightforward approach to information for those considering currency transfers. It would be impossible to run trough all the details in one post so if you would like more information on anything to do with an international money transfer (even if it is a one off) please feel free to make contact and we can guide you through the process. We handle bank to bank transfers from 1000 GBP to multi million pound transactions and assure you of the very best rate and service. All the best for 2013, firstname.lastname@example.org
Sterling data tomorrow to be aware of:
Tomorrow we have the release of industrial and manufacturing data for the U.K along with Trade balance figures in what is an extremely quiet week for the U.K regarding economic data.
These figures will no doubt be key to the performence of the Pound against all major currencies in trading tomrorow and the only other data of note is the NIESR (National Institute of Social and Economic Research) estimate for U.K GDP figures. This data can cause a shift on the market as the NIESR are not always too far away with their predictions and with the market moving on predictions as well as fact should the number be better or worse than we have generally been seeing the market may move accordingly.
Euro data to be aware of tomorrow:
Tomorrow morning may set the tone for the week regarding the Pound and the Euro as we have head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi speaking at 08:30am along with a flurry of early morning European data including budget, trade balance and general imports and exports. Comments from the head of the ECB on Thursday confirming once agains that he felt the Euro was irreversable are still keeping confidence in the Euro high and therefore helping it gain strength.
To top off the morning of European volatility we finish off with inflationary data for Europe at 10:00am.
Australian Consumer Confidence
The final piece of the currency jigsaw t will be Australian Consumer Confidence which actually is out at 00:30 on Wednesday morning but I thought it would be worth you knowing about if you have an interest in Australian Dollars, I would imagine given the latest drop in interest ratess and the performance levels of the AUD dropping ever so slightly we may see a small drop in confidence however be prepared for anything on this one as the Australians have liked to surprise us of late!
Regarding forecasting it is hard to know what the week may bring until after we have seen the majority of results out tomorrow morning as there are so many variables it is hard to predict without a few of the facts from Europe laid out in black and white.
Keep coming back to the site for our predictions and to hear twhat effect the result of tomrorow’s data has had on your currency transfer.
Ultimately no one can say exactly what will happen on exchange rates which is why a bit of forward planning is essential.
For more information on getting the very best exchange rates plus a forecast unique to your particular requirements please feel free to make contact directly with me Daniel Wright email@example.com or call 01494 787 478. I welcome any enquiries for clients looking for assistance on their transfers. I look forward to hearing from you and hopefully enlightening you! Thank you.
Pound Sterling Forecast – Will the UK cut interest rates? What will the pound do next? GBPEUR, GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD Forecast
Well as I predicetd earlier this week the pound did find some support following indications that all was not quite as bad as expected for the UK. The lack of any support for further QE or an interest rate cut kept the pound bouyant on Wednesday and yesterday’s Retail Sales were strong enough to provide the pound with a lift against most currencies.
To cut or not to cut?
I do not expect an interest rate cut for the UK. Mervyn King made clear he felt it would do more harm than good to the UK economy to cut rates and the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee confirmed no members had voted for a rate cut. Ever since Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) suggested a rate cut, there has been more speculation of this occurring. Particularly with the UK entering the dreaded double dip and the prospect of things deteriorating further in the future. For the time being there appears to be no danger of this hurting the value of sterling, although more QE does look likely.
Zig Zag Economy
The pound and the economy is continuing to zig zag proving a real headache for policymakers and forecasters, as well as anyone needing to buy or sell the currency. Let us look at some of the more favoured pairs and see what we can expect in the future:
GBPEUR – ‘Still at close to a 4 year high’ – This is easily forgotten and should not be overlooked. As the saying goes a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Whilst it is tempting to hold out for further improvement on the exchange rate to the recent highs or even 1.30, there is a danger you could miss out on what are absolutely fantastic rates that if available only a few months ago would have been snapped up in seconds.
I personally cannot see a break for the 1.30 mark anytime soon. The German Constitutional Court rules next month on the legality of using taxpayer money for European bailout funds. This is an important challenge and until this is resolved there are a number of issues on which we will have to wait. Because of this I cannot see any room for immediate Euro weakness, but indeed there is little room for it to strengthen significantly out of the current range. If you are considering any GBPEUR or EURGBP currency transfers (including bringing Euros from overseas from say a property sale), we can help you with a safe, secure method of transferring your currency at a commercial exchange rate. If you have such a requirement please feel free to call me Jonathan on 01494 787 478 or email firstname.lastname@example.org
GBPUSD – With all of the current indicators leaning towards more Quantitative Easing it looks like the dollar will lean closer towards 1.60. One of the biggest drivers on USD rates are attitudes to risk. When there is fear over the global economic outlook, the Dollar can gain in value as investors put their money somewhere reliable and unlikely to fluctuate too much. Consequently when fears subside, investors are confident to invest in other areas and the dollar weakens. Lately sentiments have improved as we start to feel that something will be done for Europe. As implied above we are unlikely to see any headline grabbing announcements that will affect confidence relating to the Euro until Germany makes a decision next month. This event could be the trigger for a break out of the current ranges, but with more QE expected as early as the start of September, there are many other triggers that could move GBPUSD.
GBPAUD – Expectations the Aussie would break the all time high against sterling have not been met and the rate has actually danced with the 1.50 mark as the pound found some favour this week. More talk over wobbles in China helped compound losses on the Aussie too. Nevetheless I think the currency has everything going for it and can only get stronger against sterling. If looking to buy this currency I would be very tempted to move currently as it may soon return to the levels of last week.
GBPNZD – The Kiwi has suffered some losses too presenting a good buy opportunity. I do not foresee the rate improving much since the underlying factors keeping the Kiwi strong remain. That is a fairly bouyant economy benefitting from Chinese and Australian demand, as well as having a much higher interest rate than most other currencies, which again keeps up investor demand. If I was buying the Kiwi or thinking about it in the future I would be worries the Kwiw would strengthen and perhaps the pound would fall too.
Making currency forecasts and providing unbeatable exchange rates is what we do! Every day myself and the other bloggers here are asked by our clients what to expect for the future. We then assist as required with a commercial rate when they want to exchange, simple! Even if you don’t need to move for some time, making careful enquiries now could well save yourself money in the long run.
I have never been beaten on an exchange rate and encourage you to make a comparison between us and whoever you currently use to see just how much you can save. Please contact me, Jonathan Watson via email email@example.com or phone on 01494 787 478.
I look forward to hearing from you and assisting you with the very best deal.
The week ahead for the Pound – A lot to cram in this week before a well deserved break! Economic data out this week and what may happen
Well we do indeed have a lot to cram in this week before a long weekend and what may even be a white Easter here in the U.K the way things are going.
After last weeks pasty and petrol combo that grabbed the headlines, this week should bring a slightly more interesting and relevant amount of news as there is a lot of economic data out accross the globe.
Today – GBP EUR AUD
Already this morning we have seen manufacturing data for Germany come out worse than expected and for the U.K data has indeed been better than expected, leading to another good start to the week for the Pound against most major curencies.
Shortly we will see the release of the European unemployment figures at 10:00am and i’m fairly sure that this won’t be news to celebrate for the Euro once again.
Overnight we see the Reserve Bank of Australia release their interest decision and it has been suspected a rate cut could be in order some time soon over there, should we see this then you may find the AUD weaken once again (an interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for the currency concerned as it makes it less attractive to investors). Should you have a transfer either buying or selling AUD then a limit or stop loss order may be sensible to protect yourself overnight, email me firstname.lastname@example.org for more details on this option.
Tuesday – GBP EUR
European GDP figures are out tomorrow morning and contraction is on the cards, this may again lead to Euro weakness in early morning trading however be aware that this is expected and the markets do move on expecatations as well as facts so if this release isn’t as bad as expected the Euro may pull some ground back.
Wednesday GBP EUR AUD
Australia release trade balance figures very early on Wednesday morning, this is a measure of imports and exports and should show us just how well Australia is still riding the Chinese wave.
For Euro followers the ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision is out followed by a press conference in mid afternoon. Quite often the rate decision doesn’t throw too much into the mix however the press conference follwing it genrerally leads to Euro volatility depending on what head of the ECB Mario Draghi has to say about how he plans to tackle the current crisis.
Thursday - GBP CHF CAD USD
Before trading lines open those with an interest in the Swiss Franc may see some movement as CPI (Consumer Price Index) is released, this is inflationary data however I highly doubt it is going to move the marjkets too much, the GBP-CHF rate has been fairly static to say the least of late as investors wait and see just what the Swiss National Bank will pull out of their locker next.
Industrial and Manufacturing production is next on Thursday morning for the U.K and following a fairly positive release this morning I would not be surprised to see this lead to a minor spike again for the Pound.
Heads turn to Canada at 11:00am as the Canadian unemployment rate is released, expectations are for it to stay at 7.4% (much better than the 23% in Spain however) any change to expectations could lead to a volatile end to the week for the Pound.
The USD finally gets a go on Thursday lunchtime at the end of what is quite a quiet week for the Dollar as jobless Claims data is out (similar to unemployment and may give an indication to how Non Farm Payrolls will come out next)
Finally to round off the week the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) release their GDP estimate for the U.K – GDP is in no doubt in my mind going to be the big talking point this month (If figures from quarter 1 for the U.K are negative we are back in a recession officially) and they are expected to predict a growth of 0.1% – Any change to this could lead to a mad end to the week and the it is going to be so tight as to whether the official figure at the end of the month is positive or negative that the Pound will no doubt be extremely jittery this month.
I personally feel the Pound may have another positive week, if you have an upcoming transaction to make either this week or in the coming months then feel free to contact me directly by emailing me email@example.com – The company I work for have won numerous awards for both exchange rates and customer service and if you find my site here a valuable read then having me as your personal broker should come in extremely handy too. I look forward to speaking with you.
What may happen to the Pound today? Interest Rate Decisions and Press conferences to be key – U.S Dollar data tomorrow with Non Farm Payroll Data
Interest Rate Decisions – What may happen today?
Today sees the release of interest rate decisions for both the Bank of
England and the European Central Bank at 12:00 and 12:45pm respectively.
Although no change in interest rates is expected, the key for the two will be
Further QE for the U.K? All eyes will be on Quantitative Easing when the Bank
of England release data at 12:00pm. For those that have followed the markets
over the past few years you will be aware that even the mere mention of QE
(essentially printing and injecting more money into the economy) tends to weaken the Pound. Last Wednesday the
Pound saw great losses as the BOE mentioned in the minutes of their last
interest rate decision, that more QE had been discussed and indeed two members
of the Monetary Policy Committee had voted for more QE than we actually did
receive, suggesting more may be just around the corner.
ECB Mario Draghi Press Conference – Following the ECB rate decision this afternoon the
markets will no doubt be dominated by the ECB press conference and what plans
‘super Mario’ has to tackle the various problems Europe has to deal with. We
can see quite wild swings during this, the mention of another cut in rates may
be Euro negative and a confident stance surrounding Greece may be seen as Euro
positive. If you have an upcoming transfer to carry out involving buying or
selling the Euro, you should contact me on firstname.lastname@example.org so I can make you
aware of any changes to exchange rates either positive or negative for you.
U.S Dollar Forecast and Non-Farm Payroll Data due tomorrow
The Sterling Dollar rate of late has been
a bit of a rollercoaster for those with a Dollar interest be it buying or
selling, and to be honest with the ongoing European debt problems and investors
not knowing what may be going on behind closed doors this rocky ride is sure to
continue. In times of uncertainty investors tend to look for a safer haven, one of which is the USD.
Tomorrow we also see the release of U.S
Non-Farm payroll data at 13:30pm and this release can be just as important as
an interest rate decision as predictions by analysts in advance can be wildly
incorrect, and with the market moving in advance on rumour as well as fact, a
stiff market correction can happen fairly rapidly, affecting all major
currencies. My personal opinion is that the Dollar will continue to strengthen
in the short term whilst problems in Europe are still rife, and we will be
closer to 1.55 than 1.60 by the end of the week.
If you have a transfer to carry out before
then end of the week email me directly here email@example.com and I will call you back. We have a series of different contract types to
assist you ranging from forward time options, to stop loss and limit orders,
feel free to get in touch for a full and straight forward explanation as to how
these options work.
New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
Last night the RBNZ kept interest rates on hold as
expected, however due to a positive outlook on the economy over in New Zealand
due to an increase in Private sector Consumption and an uptick in wage growth
has indeed opened the door for a potential interest rate hike in the next few
months. A hike in interest rates is generally seen as positive for the currency
concerned and merely speculation of this could continue to strengthen the NZD
in trading this morning.
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Pound Sterling Forecast – The week ahead sees some important data releases for the Pound, Euro, U.S Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar… What is out and when?
This week is sure to be a lively one, below is what is due out and what I feel may happen:
This morning – Inflationary data has been released for the U.K (09:30am)
13:30pm Retail Sales (USA) – One for those with an interest in the Dollar this afternoon with Retail Sales figures being released. Many top analysts still believe the Dollar will launch a fight back in the coming weeks and months, and some believe the Dollar will have a strong year (making it more expensive to buy). Expectations for this release is an improvement and personally I feel the release will be good, but not quite as good as expected however this isn’t a huge release so no major market movement expected from this one.
21:45 Retail Sales (New Zealand) – This one will effect the ever strong New Zealand Dollar, which has had a great few months (Not so great for Britons with money to shift over there). The data covers the last quarter of 2011 and expectations are for a drop, this may lead to a short term spike against the new Zealand Dollar however in my opinion unless we see real global uncertainty again soon the the NZD will stay reasonably strong.
23:30 Consumer Confidence (Australia) – A late release for Australian Dollar followers which will show the confidence levels of individuals have in the economy and how things are going in Australia, many clients I speak to say all is not as rosy as is being made out over in Australia unless you are in the mining industry, but lets see what this brings, personally much like the NZD I feel the AUD will stay strong unless something major happens worldwide.
Tomorrow 08:00am (German GDP) – A key indicator as to how the largest economy involved in the Euro is performing, this is followed up at 10:00 by GDP data for the European Monetary Union. A bad release for Germany may indicate that the worst is yet to come as the EMU is expected to release a negative figure for Q4 of 2011.
Tomorrow 09:30am (U.K Unemployment) – A flurry of unemployment data for the U.K which is not expected to be too good (yet again). If you have Pounds and wish to buy a foreign currency it may be prudent to seriously consider your options before this release.
10:30am – (Mervyn king’s speech) Mr King seems to be very good at making the Pound weaken, whether it be on purpose or not and those that have tracked Sterling over the past few years will indeed be well aware of this, certainly one to watch with interest… In my opinion Wednesday will be the most volatile day and I expect it to be poor for Sterling.
Thursday – Overnight (Australian Unemloyment Rate) No huge changes to unemployment expected in Australia however as always expect the unexpected in this market!
09:00 – ECB monthly Report - The European Central bank will release their monthly report on Thursday morning, this will give an indication as to how they plan to deal with the economy in the coming monthand what has happened in the past month, we may see a hint as to whether or not we can expect another cut in interest rates as has been mentioned of late, if this is mentioned with an indication for next month, we may see Euro weakness following it.
Friday 09:30am – U.K Retail Sales (January) How well did the retail sector perform after Christmas, I feel the U.K tightened their belts during this period and it would not surprise me to see another poor start to the day for the Pound.
12:00pm Canadian Inflation data – The Bank of Canada release inflation data at noon, slight rise to 0% is expected and any change from this could lead to movements either way… again we do appear to be range bound against this currency however I feel that sub 1.55 is just around the corner unless the U.K can bring us an unexpected good week.
13:30pm U.S Inflation- Inflation time for the States to round off the week, personally I feel this won’t be a big one for the markets unless something major is thrown into the mix.
In short I think the Pound will find it tough this week, if you have a bank to bank transfer to make from sterling to a major currency or from a major currency to Sterling then contact me directly email@example.com to make sure you really are getting the best exchange rates for your transfer along with the highest level of customer service and efficiency. I look forward to hearing from you.