Tag Archives: data
Pound Sterling Forecast… The week ahead – A quiet week ahead for U.K economic data, Could this be the week the Dollar fights back? (Daniel Wright)
Today has so far been exceedingly quiet on the markets with very little economic data out for the major economies leading to minimal market volatility across the board.
There is still very little to come out for the U.K for the rest of the week however all eyes may start to look towards the States and a flurry of important data due to come out from the middle of the week onward.
One thing to note is that U.S data can actually affect all major currencies as it does tend to impact global attitude to risk, this can lead to volatility for currencies such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.
The action really starts to hot up on Wednesday afternoon, first and foremost we have U.S GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data out at 13:30pm. GDP basically shows how much an economy has grown over the course of a specific period and expectations are for some really solid growth, should these expectations be met or indeed exceeded then the Dollar may have a good afternoon against all major currencies.
A little later in the evening we have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which also will confirm any changes in the tapering of QE and will be followed by a monetary policy statement by Janet Yellen where investors and speculators shall be hanging off of her every word. Any mention of interest rate changes could give us a very lively evening.
Janet Yellen has mentioned recently that unemployment will be key for interest rates going forward and Friday we see two really key employment releases with Non-farm payroll data and the official unemployment rate for America both coming out at 13:30pm. Non-farm payroll measures the number of people in Non-agricultural employment during a specific period, Non agricultural because this can be majorly affected depending on the season.
Personally I am going to stick my neck out and say that this has the potential and could be time for the Dollar to start to make a come back after a fairly weak few months, of course if the data is poor for America we could easily see rates go the other way but I feel that things are due to pick up for the States and the Federal Reserve may start to echo this in their comments and actions.
All in all if you have any major currency exchange to carry out either this week or in the coming weeks and months then now may be a good time to get in contact with me personally. I have years of industry experience and work for a company that has won many awards not only for our rates of exchange but also customer service. Feel free to email me directly on firstname.lastname@example.org with a description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you.
Sterling exchange rates have remained fairly flat against most majors in the last week of trading, still hovering around a five year high to buy Dollars and a 20 month high to buy Euros.
With a fresh month starting tomorrow and plenty of economic data due to come out I thought I would give you an overview of what we are due to see released this week.
Overnight – We have the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) release their interest rate decision at 05:30am tomorrow morning and although no change to interest rates is expected all eyes will be any comments on the value of the Australian Dollar and if the strength of it is again viewed in a negative light by the RBA then we may see the AUD become cheaper to buy overnight.
Tomorrow – European data will be the main focus in trading tomorrow morning with a host of manufacturing data along with unemployment data from Germany, Italy and the Eurozone as a whole. The unemployment rate is expecting to stay at 11.7% so any alterations to this could give the Euro a volatile morning tomorrow to start off the month. U.K manufacturing PMI is also due out at 08:30am and a minimal drop is expected so unless there is any major change to this I would expect to see a huge amount of movement off the back of it.
Wednesday – Australian Trade balance figures will come out overnight and then we have European GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures are out at 10:00am which should set the scene for the day for Euro followers. Speeches from the RBA Assistant Governor Debelle and Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen will also be of great importance for the Australian Dollar and U.S Dollar.
Late night on Wednesday/Early morning Thursday Australian Building Permits and Retail Sales, along with some services data from China could round off a busy week for the Australian Dollar with a bang. Personally I Feel we still have gains to make over the AUD however it has been holding well and truly firm over the past month or so, which is always a concern when U.K economic data has been so good.
Thursday – Thursday we have Services PMI data from just after 8:00am until 09:30am for the Eurozone and U.K with no great alterations to the previous month expected.
In my opinion the main focus for Thursday will be the ECB (European Central Bank) Interest rate decision at 12:45pm and more importantly the press conference shortly after it at 13:30pm. With rates being cut last time around I would be surprised to see the actual rate decision throw up much but the press conference held by head of the ECB (Mario Draghi) always tends lead to a great deal of market volatility.
It usually goes on for around an hour and investors/speculators will be hanging off of his every word, we have seen anything up to a 1.5% swing (£1500 on buying a €125,000 property) during this time frame so if you are in the process of buying or selling a property abroad in Euros it will be prudent to make me aware so that I can inform you of any potential opportunities that may arise.
Friday is Independence day therefore a bank holiday in the States and very thin on the ground for economic data so unless any surprises pop up the markets may be a little more range bound. Do be aware though that due to there being a bank holiday in America there will be thinner trading levels therefore smaller pieces of economic data can have a larger effect than normal.
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Sterling exchange rates following inflation data – The Bank of England is stuck in a tricky position to say the least (Daniel Wright)
The Pound has risen ever so slightly this morning following inflationary data coming out slightly higher than expected.
The Bank of England would like the Pound to be weaker but the problem they face is that the lower the Pound the more imports will cost, therefore goods are more expensive which is not good for inflation.
Raising interest rates to combat inflation will lead to more expensive borrowing costs for everyone and growth being stunted due to less investment.
Not a nice position to be in – A rock and a hard place comes to mind!
For those of you that do not follow the markets the reason that this has led to the Pound gaining value is that the Bank of England do not want to have inflation getting too high and this is a sign that is is creeping up (things are getting more expensive to buy). The best way top tackle high inflation is to raise interest rates and a hike in interest rates generally is seen as positive to the currency concerned as it makes it more attractive to investors.
The currency markets do move in advance of things like this happening which is why the Pound has gained as the chance of a rate hike has increased ever so slightly.
Of course there are a lot of other factors that may affect rates in the coming days, we have the Bank of England minutes tomorrow morning which will show us how many members voted in favour of or against both Quantitative Easing and an interest rate change.
Indications that we are on the edge of further QE may be seen as negative for the Pound and the last few months this has been the more likely however any indications that members heads are moving towards a hike in rates could lead to another boost for Sterling.
Be aware we also have the budget tomorrow which in all honesty is rarely a big market mover however you always need to be cautious of a surprise popping up!
If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out from bank to bank and you want not only to maximise your exchange rates but also to receive a great level of service and assistance then feel free to contact me directly by email email@example.com with a brief description of your requirement and a contact number and I will be more than happy to call you straight back. We have won numerous awards both for our rates and customer service and I will be highly surprised if I cannot save you money over your current provider.
I look forward to hearing from you.
The pound has had a typically uncertain start to 2013 with declines in Services and Construction, but with improvements in Manufacturing. As always these early month releases have affected short term movements against currencies giving well prepared clients opportunities to maximise their rate. This site of course focuses on GBP but when looking at rates on your currency it is important to be aware of global events that may affect the currency you trade. I have chosen AUD, NZD, CAD and ZAR because there are many common themes affecting their movements. Sterling doesn’t see too many independent moves in the same way these currencies do and with the global economy the way it is, the moves on these currencies can be unexpected. An awareness of what drives your rate is key to understanding the market and getting a good deal. Whatever your level of interest in the markets always feel free to post a comment below or contact me Jonathan directly on firstname.lastname@example.org for information.
I think the big movers for the pound itself this year will stem from the prospects of further QE as well as UK growth prospects. Significant independent GBP moves should only really be affected by these concerns. For the month of January we are unlikely to see QE and henceforth a big drop for the pound looks unlikely. Therefore anyone who can hold out longer before they sell the pound for a currency may find an opportunity in the future. This means that those selling a foreign currency to buy sterling may wish to position themselves to move sooner particularly since current rates are so good.
GBPAUD – Positive data from China and improved global sentiments due to the fiscal cliff are keeping the Aussie strong. 1.60 has been a target for many of my GBPAUD buyers but this rate looks unlikely to be hit anytime soon. Conversely those selling are targeting a 1.50 so we are loosely in the middle of such rates. Current market conditions indicate to me there is more chance of the rate hitting 1.50 before 1.60 due to likelihood the Australian economy will remain strong and the fact the pound looks unlikely to stage the kind of resurgence that would enable 1.60 to be hit. The general improvement in market sentiments due to eurozone stability and resolution of the fiscal cliff back up my claim here but things can change quickly. If you are a buyer or seller of Aussies you can make an enquiry directly with me on email@example.com and I can keep you posted on developments.
GBPNZD – The Kiwi has strengthened lately as Asian data remains positive. A move towards 2 looks unlikely but we could easily see a change in sentiment down the line. As with the Aussie the current market conditions coupled with a weak pound indicate a move towards 1.90 is more likely than the higher rates. On both currencies sentiments can quickly change so some preparation ahead of needing to make an exchange will help you in achieving the best rate.
GBPCAD – The Canadian Dollar has been boosted from the fiscal cliff deal and improved global sentiments. Now back comfortably below 1.60, this could be a good time for sellers to enter the market. The Canadian economy relies heavily on the US and the indications from the US Federal Reserve QE will end in 2013 also helped the currency. Much like the Aussie and Kiwi I expect the Loonie to be well supported and to only be moved by sharp changes in sentiment. I would be surprised to see us above 1.60 in the short term although the debt ceiling negotiations could provide the kind of spikes we saw late December. If you missed the boat on buying at this time and are waiting for an improvement you could be in luck depending on how long you can hold out and how steady your nerves are.
GBPZAR – The ZAR suffered massively due to uncertainty last year. Political uncertainty is a major turn off for investors and the much lower than expected growth in South Africa due to the uncertainty dented confidence. Nevertheless the South African economy has lots going for it with many mineral resources of interest to the West and East. As with those above it looks more likely the currency has recovered somewhat and a settling of tensions globally has helped the Rand. I think this is the currency the pound is most likely to enjoy strength against simply because it is the weakest overall. Sentiments on the Rand are frayed and it will take time to restore confidence. I would not be surprised to see a move above 14 again but unless there is major uncertainty presented to markets, cannot see it moving significantly higher.
Unfortunately no one has a crystal ball to tell you exactly what will happen in the future. But an awareness of all of the fundamental issues surrounding your currency deal will help you make a decision. We aim to make things as easy and simple for our clients so even if your requirement is just a one off speaking to us could save you thousands. This site and the people behind it have won various awards for our straightforward approach to information for those considering currency transfers. It would be impossible to run trough all the details in one post so if you would like more information on anything to do with an international money transfer (even if it is a one off) please feel free to make contact and we can guide you through the process. We handle bank to bank transfers from 1000 GBP to multi million pound transactions and assure you of the very best rate and service. All the best for 2013, firstname.lastname@example.org
Sterling data tomorrow to be aware of:
Tomorrow we have the release of industrial and manufacturing data for the U.K along with Trade balance figures in what is an extremely quiet week for the U.K regarding economic data.
These figures will no doubt be key to the performence of the Pound against all major currencies in trading tomrorow and the only other data of note is the NIESR (National Institute of Social and Economic Research) estimate for U.K GDP figures. This data can cause a shift on the market as the NIESR are not always too far away with their predictions and with the market moving on predictions as well as fact should the number be better or worse than we have generally been seeing the market may move accordingly.
Euro data to be aware of tomorrow:
Tomorrow morning may set the tone for the week regarding the Pound and the Euro as we have head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi speaking at 08:30am along with a flurry of early morning European data including budget, trade balance and general imports and exports. Comments from the head of the ECB on Thursday confirming once agains that he felt the Euro was irreversable are still keeping confidence in the Euro high and therefore helping it gain strength.
To top off the morning of European volatility we finish off with inflationary data for Europe at 10:00am.
Australian Consumer Confidence
The final piece of the currency jigsaw t will be Australian Consumer Confidence which actually is out at 00:30 on Wednesday morning but I thought it would be worth you knowing about if you have an interest in Australian Dollars, I would imagine given the latest drop in interest ratess and the performance levels of the AUD dropping ever so slightly we may see a small drop in confidence however be prepared for anything on this one as the Australians have liked to surprise us of late!
Regarding forecasting it is hard to know what the week may bring until after we have seen the majority of results out tomorrow morning as there are so many variables it is hard to predict without a few of the facts from Europe laid out in black and white.
Keep coming back to the site for our predictions and to hear twhat effect the result of tomrorow’s data has had on your currency transfer.
Ultimately no one can say exactly what will happen on exchange rates which is why a bit of forward planning is essential.
For more information on getting the very best exchange rates plus a forecast unique to your particular requirements please feel free to make contact directly with me Daniel Wright email@example.com or call 01494 787 478. I welcome any enquiries for clients looking for assistance on their transfers. I look forward to hearing from you and hopefully enlightening you! Thank you.
Pound Sterling Forecast – Will the UK cut interest rates? What will the pound do next? GBPEUR, GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD Forecast
Well as I predicetd earlier this week the pound did find some support following indications that all was not quite as bad as expected for the UK. The lack of any support for further QE or an interest rate cut kept the pound bouyant on Wednesday and yesterday’s Retail Sales were strong enough to provide the pound with a lift against most currencies.
To cut or not to cut?
I do not expect an interest rate cut for the UK. Mervyn King made clear he felt it would do more harm than good to the UK economy to cut rates and the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee confirmed no members had voted for a rate cut. Ever since Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) suggested a rate cut, there has been more speculation of this occurring. Particularly with the UK entering the dreaded double dip and the prospect of things deteriorating further in the future. For the time being there appears to be no danger of this hurting the value of sterling, although more QE does look likely.
Zig Zag Economy
The pound and the economy is continuing to zig zag proving a real headache for policymakers and forecasters, as well as anyone needing to buy or sell the currency. Let us look at some of the more favoured pairs and see what we can expect in the future:
GBPEUR – ‘Still at close to a 4 year high’ – This is easily forgotten and should not be overlooked. As the saying goes a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Whilst it is tempting to hold out for further improvement on the exchange rate to the recent highs or even 1.30, there is a danger you could miss out on what are absolutely fantastic rates that if available only a few months ago would have been snapped up in seconds.
I personally cannot see a break for the 1.30 mark anytime soon. The German Constitutional Court rules next month on the legality of using taxpayer money for European bailout funds. This is an important challenge and until this is resolved there are a number of issues on which we will have to wait. Because of this I cannot see any room for immediate Euro weakness, but indeed there is little room for it to strengthen significantly out of the current range. If you are considering any GBPEUR or EURGBP currency transfers (including bringing Euros from overseas from say a property sale), we can help you with a safe, secure method of transferring your currency at a commercial exchange rate. If you have such a requirement please feel free to call me Jonathan on 01494 787 478 or email firstname.lastname@example.org
GBPUSD – With all of the current indicators leaning towards more Quantitative Easing it looks like the dollar will lean closer towards 1.60. One of the biggest drivers on USD rates are attitudes to risk. When there is fear over the global economic outlook, the Dollar can gain in value as investors put their money somewhere reliable and unlikely to fluctuate too much. Consequently when fears subside, investors are confident to invest in other areas and the dollar weakens. Lately sentiments have improved as we start to feel that something will be done for Europe. As implied above we are unlikely to see any headline grabbing announcements that will affect confidence relating to the Euro until Germany makes a decision next month. This event could be the trigger for a break out of the current ranges, but with more QE expected as early as the start of September, there are many other triggers that could move GBPUSD.
GBPAUD – Expectations the Aussie would break the all time high against sterling have not been met and the rate has actually danced with the 1.50 mark as the pound found some favour this week. More talk over wobbles in China helped compound losses on the Aussie too. Nevetheless I think the currency has everything going for it and can only get stronger against sterling. If looking to buy this currency I would be very tempted to move currently as it may soon return to the levels of last week.
GBPNZD – The Kiwi has suffered some losses too presenting a good buy opportunity. I do not foresee the rate improving much since the underlying factors keeping the Kiwi strong remain. That is a fairly bouyant economy benefitting from Chinese and Australian demand, as well as having a much higher interest rate than most other currencies, which again keeps up investor demand. If I was buying the Kiwi or thinking about it in the future I would be worries the Kwiw would strengthen and perhaps the pound would fall too.
Making currency forecasts and providing unbeatable exchange rates is what we do! Every day myself and the other bloggers here are asked by our clients what to expect for the future. We then assist as required with a commercial rate when they want to exchange, simple! Even if you don’t need to move for some time, making careful enquiries now could well save yourself money in the long run.
I have never been beaten on an exchange rate and encourage you to make a comparison between us and whoever you currently use to see just how much you can save. Please contact me, Jonathan Watson via email email@example.com or phone on 01494 787 478.
I look forward to hearing from you and assisting you with the very best deal.
The week ahead for the Pound – A lot to cram in this week before a well deserved break! Economic data out this week and what may happen
Well we do indeed have a lot to cram in this week before a long weekend and what may even be a white Easter here in the U.K the way things are going.
After last weeks pasty and petrol combo that grabbed the headlines, this week should bring a slightly more interesting and relevant amount of news as there is a lot of economic data out accross the globe.
Today – GBP EUR AUD
Already this morning we have seen manufacturing data for Germany come out worse than expected and for the U.K data has indeed been better than expected, leading to another good start to the week for the Pound against most major curencies.
Shortly we will see the release of the European unemployment figures at 10:00am and i’m fairly sure that this won’t be news to celebrate for the Euro once again.
Overnight we see the Reserve Bank of Australia release their interest decision and it has been suspected a rate cut could be in order some time soon over there, should we see this then you may find the AUD weaken once again (an interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for the currency concerned as it makes it less attractive to investors). Should you have a transfer either buying or selling AUD then a limit or stop loss order may be sensible to protect yourself overnight, email me firstname.lastname@example.org for more details on this option.
Tuesday – GBP EUR
European GDP figures are out tomorrow morning and contraction is on the cards, this may again lead to Euro weakness in early morning trading however be aware that this is expected and the markets do move on expecatations as well as facts so if this release isn’t as bad as expected the Euro may pull some ground back.
Wednesday GBP EUR AUD
Australia release trade balance figures very early on Wednesday morning, this is a measure of imports and exports and should show us just how well Australia is still riding the Chinese wave.
For Euro followers the ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision is out followed by a press conference in mid afternoon. Quite often the rate decision doesn’t throw too much into the mix however the press conference follwing it genrerally leads to Euro volatility depending on what head of the ECB Mario Draghi has to say about how he plans to tackle the current crisis.
Thursday - GBP CHF CAD USD
Before trading lines open those with an interest in the Swiss Franc may see some movement as CPI (Consumer Price Index) is released, this is inflationary data however I highly doubt it is going to move the marjkets too much, the GBP-CHF rate has been fairly static to say the least of late as investors wait and see just what the Swiss National Bank will pull out of their locker next.
Industrial and Manufacturing production is next on Thursday morning for the U.K and following a fairly positive release this morning I would not be surprised to see this lead to a minor spike again for the Pound.
Heads turn to Canada at 11:00am as the Canadian unemployment rate is released, expectations are for it to stay at 7.4% (much better than the 23% in Spain however) any change to expectations could lead to a volatile end to the week for the Pound.
The USD finally gets a go on Thursday lunchtime at the end of what is quite a quiet week for the Dollar as jobless Claims data is out (similar to unemployment and may give an indication to how Non Farm Payrolls will come out next)
Finally to round off the week the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) release their GDP estimate for the U.K – GDP is in no doubt in my mind going to be the big talking point this month (If figures from quarter 1 for the U.K are negative we are back in a recession officially) and they are expected to predict a growth of 0.1% – Any change to this could lead to a mad end to the week and the it is going to be so tight as to whether the official figure at the end of the month is positive or negative that the Pound will no doubt be extremely jittery this month.
I personally feel the Pound may have another positive week, if you have an upcoming transaction to make either this week or in the coming months then feel free to contact me directly by emailing me email@example.com – The company I work for have won numerous awards for both exchange rates and customer service and if you find my site here a valuable read then having me as your personal broker should come in extremely handy too. I look forward to speaking with you.