Tag Archives: data

Flat week for Sterling so far with little economic data out – What does the rest of the week hold? (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has had a fairly slow start to the week against all major currencies, as we have seen very little in the way of economic data released leading towards the end of the month.

We do have a few points of note later on in the week mainly concerning Europe, Canada and America.

Swiss employment figures are however due at 08:15am tomorrow morning which is one point of note for anyone following the Swiss Franc.

Shortly after that we have German unemployment figures at 08:55am which although is a fairly important release however it appears no change in unemployment rates is expected but any differential to the expectation of 6.7% could lead to a volatile morning for the Euro.

later on in the day at 13:30pm we do have U.S GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures which will show growth over in the states during a specific period and can actual lead to market volatility for all major currencies as it may have an effect on global attitude to risk.

Friday we round the week off for the Euro with European inflation and employment  figures with year on year inflation expected to come out at 0.8%   and unemployment to remain at 11.5% (much worse than that of the U.K and US).

Canada release their GDP figures later on in the afternoon at 13:30pm and one thing to be fairly wary of is month end flows which we do tend to see fairly often on the last day of the month. This can cause volatility for all major currencies in any direction so Friday is a good day to ensure you have someone watching the market for you.

If you do not currently use a currency broker or you feel you could be getting a little more out of the broker you currently use in terms of exchange rate and service then it may be prudent to contact me directly.

I pride myself on keeping clients fully up to date with market movements and our exchange rates have won numerous awards so I would be surprised if I couldn’t save you money too.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to give you a call to explain the service and quote you if you wish.

Pound Sterling Forecast – Economic data out the first few days this week and how it may move exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

A very slow start to the week for Sterling today with very little economic data or news for the markets to move off.

This will more than likely be the calm before the storm this week though as there is plenty of data for investors and speculators alike to get their teeth into which will no doubt cause quite a lot of volatility for most major currencies.

Tonight - Overnight we see the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) meeting minutes and the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) inflation expectations, out at 02:30am and 04:00am respecively. RBA Governor Stevens has seemingly turned a corner lately with his comments on the strength of the Australian Dollar and appears to be a little happier with the way things are going, leading to the Australian Dollar gaining some strength back against the Pound and knocking the GBP/AUD rate back below 1.80. Stevens is also due to speak on 00:30 Tuesday night as well.

Tomorrow – Tomorrow morning we see a key inflation release from the U.K which could easily lead to a bumpy ride for Sterling followers during the course of tomorrow morning. Inflation had beejn at 1.9% which is just about below the Government target of 2% so any minor alterations to this, especailly to the upside could give the Pound a morning boost, as one way to lower would be to raise interest rates, so a figure of 2% or above may lead to a little speculation of a rate hike coming a little closer. Of course, comments from the Governor of the Bank of England last week may well cut this potential out.

Later in the day it is the turn of the States for their inflation data, interstingly also expected to come out at 1.9% so if you have an interest in the Dollar be sure to keep a watchful eye on the market shortly after 13:30pm – Or why not email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I can monitor things on your behalf.

Wednesday – Wednesday morning we have the Bank of  England minutes from the last BOE interest rate decision. No major expectations from this one however it does really have the potential to throw up a surprise or two and news that any of the 9 members of the Bank of England now are voting in favour of an interest rate hike may give also Sterling a shift up in the right direction.

Later in the evening we have the FOMC (Federal Open Market Commitee) minutes, again very similar to the BOE minutes seen a little earlier on this will show how the Fed voted in terms of rate movements and what they discussed at the last interest rate decision, last time around we saw one memebr of the Fed vote in favour of a rate hike which did give the Dollar a little boost.

If you have a currency transfer to carry out and you want to achieve the very best rates of exchange either for your company or a personal transaction, along with highly valuable market knowledge then why not contact me (Daniel Wright) by email on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.

Even if you currently use another broker you may be surprised at how much you can save by getting in touch as a small improvement on an exchange rate can make a big difference to you.

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Pound Sterling Forecast… The week ahead – A quiet week ahead for U.K economic data, Could this be the week the Dollar fights back? (Daniel Wright)

Today has so far been exceedingly quiet on the markets with very little economic data out for the major economies leading to minimal market volatility across the board.

There is still very little to come out for the U.K for the rest of the week however all eyes may start to look towards the States and a flurry of important data due to come out from the middle of the week onward.

One thing to note is that U.S data can actually affect all major currencies as it does tend to impact global attitude to risk, this can lead to volatility for currencies such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.

The action really starts to hot up on Wednesday afternoon, first and foremost we have U.S GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data out at 13:30pm. GDP basically shows how much an economy has grown over the course of a specific period and expectations are for some really solid growth, should these expectations be met or indeed exceeded then the Dollar may have a good afternoon against all major currencies.

A little later in the evening we have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which also will confirm any changes in the tapering of QE and will be followed by a monetary policy statement by Janet Yellen where investors and speculators shall be hanging off of her every word. Any mention of interest rate changes could give us a very lively evening.

Janet Yellen has mentioned recently that unemployment will be key for interest rates going forward and Friday we see two really key employment releases with Non-farm payroll data and the official unemployment rate for America both coming out at 13:30pm. Non-farm payroll measures the number of people in Non-agricultural employment during a specific period, Non agricultural because this can be majorly affected depending on the season.

Personally I am going to stick my neck out and say that this has the potential and could be time for the Dollar to start to make a come back after a fairly weak few months, of course if the data is poor for America we could easily see rates go the other way but I feel that things are due to pick up for the States and the Federal Reserve may start to echo this in their comments and actions.

All in all if you have any major currency exchange to carry out either this week or in the coming weeks and months then now may be a good time to get in contact with me personally. I have years of industry experience and work for a company that has won many awards not only for our rates of exchange but also customer service. Feel free to email me directly on  djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you.

Sterling report and forecast – The week ahead for economic data (Daniel Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have remained fairly flat against most majors in the last week of trading, still hovering around a five year high to buy Dollars and a 20 month high to buy Euros.

With a fresh month starting tomorrow and plenty of economic data due to come out I thought I would give you an overview of what we are due to see released this week.

Overnight – We have the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) release their interest rate decision at 05:30am tomorrow morning and although no change to interest rates is expected all eyes will be any comments on the value of the Australian Dollar and if the strength of it is again viewed in a negative light by the RBA then we may see the AUD become cheaper to buy overnight.

Tomorrow – European data will be the main focus in trading tomorrow morning  with a host of manufacturing data along with unemployment data from Germany, Italy and the Eurozone as a whole. The unemployment rate is expecting to stay at 11.7% so any alterations to this could give the Euro a volatile morning tomorrow to start off the month. U.K manufacturing PMI is also due out at 08:30am and a minimal drop is expected so unless there is any major change to this I would expect to see a huge amount of movement off the back of it.

Wednesday – Australian Trade balance figures will come out overnight and then we have European GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures are out at 10:00am which should set the scene for the day for Euro followers. Speeches from the RBA Assistant Governor Debelle and Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen will also be of great importance for the Australian Dollar and U.S Dollar.

Late night on Wednesday/Early morning Thursday Australian Building Permits and Retail Sales, along with some services data from China could round off a busy week for the Australian Dollar with a bang. Personally I Feel we still have gains to make over the AUD however it has been holding well and truly firm over the past month or so, which is always a concern when U.K economic data has been so good.

Thursday – Thursday we have Services PMI data from just after 8:00am until 09:30am for the Eurozone and U.K with no great alterations to the previous month expected.

In my opinion the main focus for Thursday will be the ECB (European Central Bank) Interest rate decision at 12:45pm and more importantly the press conference shortly after it at 13:30pm. With rates being cut last time around I would be surprised to see the actual rate decision throw up much but the press conference held by head of the ECB (Mario Draghi) always tends lead to a great deal of market volatility.

It usually goes on for around an hour and investors/speculators will be hanging off of his every word, we have seen anything up to a 1.5% swing (£1500 on buying a €125,000 property) during this time frame so if you are in the process of buying or selling a property abroad in Euros it will be prudent to make me aware so that I can inform you of any potential opportunities that may arise.

Friday is Independence day therefore a bank holiday in the States and very thin on the ground for economic data so unless any surprises pop up the markets may be a little more range bound. Do be aware though that due to there being a bank holiday in America there will be thinner trading levels therefore smaller pieces of economic data can have a larger effect than normal.

If you have a requirement in the future but you do not yet have the full availability of funds you can book out a forward contract. This is where you can book a rate out for up to a year in advance with just a small deposit, removing the risk of the currency market making your purchase any more expensive in the future.

This is ideal if you are in the process of buying a property overseas as you can know exactly how much the property is going to cost you today and eliminate the risk of the Pound dropping away again and missing out on this great opportunity.

I look forward to speaking with you if you have any questions or queries or you would like to book out a rate of exchange.

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Sterling exchange rates following inflation data – The Bank of England is stuck in a tricky position to say the least (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has risen ever so slightly this morning following inflationary data coming out slightly higher than expected.

The Bank of England would like the Pound to be weaker but the problem they face is that the lower the Pound the more imports will cost, therefore goods are more expensive which is not good for inflation.

Raising interest rates to combat inflation will lead to more expensive borrowing costs for everyone and growth being stunted due to less investment.

Not a nice position to be in – A rock and a hard place comes to mind!

For those of you that do not follow the markets the reason that this has led to the Pound gaining value is that the Bank of England do not want to have inflation getting too high and this is a sign that is is creeping up (things are getting more expensive to buy). The best way top tackle high inflation is to raise interest rates and a hike in interest rates generally is seen as positive to the currency concerned as it makes it more attractive to investors.

The currency markets do move in advance of things like this happening which is why the Pound has gained as the chance of a rate hike has increased ever so slightly.

Of course there are a lot of other factors that may affect rates in the coming days, we have the Bank of England minutes tomorrow morning which will show us how many members voted in favour of or against both Quantitative Easing and an interest rate change.

Indications that we are on the edge of further QE may be seen as negative for the Pound and the last few months this has been the more likely however any indications that members heads are moving towards a hike in rates could lead to another boost for Sterling.

Be aware we also have the budget tomorrow which in all honesty is rarely a big market mover however you always need to be cautious of a surprise popping up!

If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out from bank to bank and you want not only to maximise your exchange rates but also to receive a great level of service and assistance then feel free to contact me directly by email djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirement and a contact number and I will be more than happy to call you straight back. We have won numerous awards both for our rates and customer service and I will be highly surprised if I cannot save you money over your current provider.

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Sterling – Euro rates continue the decline – U.K data and weather leading to a miserable start to the year for those holding Pounds :( For anyone selling Euros to buy Pounds you currently have a late Christmas present! (Daniel Wright)

The Pound once again had a terrible week against the Euro and indeed the majority of major currencies as bad new continued to come out for the U.K in terms of economic data and indeed well known high street stores going into difficulty.

Personally, i’m not worries about the stores that have found trouble as I believe if you look at each one individually none of them have actually moved with the times quick enough  and got involved in the ever changing technology that you need to offer as a business in these times to make life easy for the consumer.

The real worry is the mountain of poor economic data we have had so far this year, everything is now pointing towards poor GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures this week which could (although probably expected now) give us a further kick whilst we are down and will also get the media back on to the ‘Triple dip recession’ bandwagon!

The Euro however seems to be ever popular and bond auctions are surprising everyone at the moment as they are showing a great demand, i’m not sure what these high end investors know that I don’t but i’m fairly sure my money wouldn’t be going anywhere near Spanish or Italian bonds – I would rather put the money on the Grand National! Either way people are investing in the Euro and in turn it is gathering strength rapidly, with the head of the European Central Bank also seemingly confident (or at least showing confidence in his speeches) there could still be a little way to go for this trend.

Be warned however as members of the European Central Bank are starting to become concerned at the value of the Euro so I wouldn’t expect to see much more strength myself – I can only say what I would do if I had Euros to sell and I would be fairly tempted to get something booked out reasonably soon to take advantage of such a great movement in your favour.

If you have a pending currency requirement involving either buying or selling the Pound against any major currency then I can help you personally, the company I trade for has won numerous awards for exchange rates and you get to deal with me personally so not only do you get the rates but the knowledge to help you make your decision.

Feel free to contact me directly on  djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirements and a contact number and I will call you back wherever you are in the world at a convenient time. If you find our information on this site useful and feel that you aren’t getting the very highest level of service along with the best rates of exchange from your bank or current broker then why not contact me to compare – It won’t cost you a thing and you have nothing to lose!

Enjoy the rest of your weekend, i’m off to shovel the snow off of my driveway! :(

Pound Sterling Forecast – Economic data out that may move exchange rates this week – A busy end to the week for the Pound

Good morning to my regular readers and I hope you are all back into the swing of things after the festive season.

We have a really busy week in terms of economic data this week so I thought I would outline what is due out below, as always do feel free to contact me directly by emailing me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will personally get back to every mail i receive.

Tonight – Retail sales are released in Australia tonight which could lead to an overnight movement for the Australian Dollar – expectations are for a minor rise however personally I feel we may see a bad start to the year for Australian economic data. The problem those looking to buy Australian Dollars have is the global attitude to risk – As long as issues surrounding the Eurozone remain off the front pages and stay quiet I feel the AUD will still hold its ground fairly well.

Tomorrow – We have a busy morning for Sterling tomorrow  with our trade balance figures being released, expectations are for this figure to be a little better and personally I feel on the flip side to the Australian data this month the U.K data may be fairly positive – Ignoring the U.K service sector activity dropping last week.

Thursday has the ability to cause quite a bit of volatility especially for those of you looking to buy or sell Euros. European unemployment and inflation data is out at 10:00am followed by the U.K interest rate decision at 12:00pm – No change to interest rates is expected however do be aware any comments on future fiscal policy or any more QE may have quite an effect on the Pound.

A little later in the afternoon  at 12:45pm we have the European interest rate decision – Again no change in rates expected but the key thing will be the press conference by head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi at 13:30pm. I’m going to stick my neck on the line and say I would not be surprised to see him come out with something fairly large as the European crisis has been very quiet for quite a period of time (like these things are during the festive season) However the problems certainly have not gone away!

Friday brings a set of Chinese data in the early hours which again will be key for Australian Dollar followers we then have Swiss inflation data at 08:15am – U.K industrial and manufacturing production data is out at 09:30 am and hopefully this will give us a slightly more positive result than that of the Services data we saw out last week.

We have inflation data for Europe and the States throughout the course of the day and then later in the afternoon we have the NIESR (National Institute of Social and Economic Research) releasing their estimate of GDP for the final quarter of 2012. This estimate is usually taken fairly seriously by investors and should this be or be close to negative then we could see a big drop for the pound towards the end of the week as a potential ‘Triple dip’ recession will back on the front pages again, of course if the data is positive it could lead to a great end to the week for those looking to buy foreign currency.

If you have upcoming currency requirements either to buy or sell foreign currency involving a bank to bank transfer either as a personal transaction or a corporate transaction then I can help you with this both in terms of a fantastic all round service and award winning rates of exchange, even if you are happy with your current source for currency it is always worth comparing as the slightest increase in your rate of exchange can save you a lot of money over the course of a year.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly by emailing me a brief description of your requirements along with a contact number and I shall be more than happy to contact you personally to see how I can help. You can contact me on djw@currencies.co.uk

How will the pound fare against these currencies in 2013? AUD, NZD, CAD, ZAR Forecasts.

The pound has had a typically uncertain start to 2013 with declines in Services and Construction, but with improvements in Manufacturing. As always these early month releases have affected short term movements against currencies giving well prepared clients opportunities to maximise their rate. This site of course focuses on GBP but when looking at rates on your currency it is important to be aware of global events that may affect the currency you trade. I have chosen AUD, NZD, CAD and ZAR because there are many common themes affecting their movements. Sterling doesn’t see too many independent moves in the same way these currencies do and with the global economy the way it is, the moves on these currencies can be unexpected. An awareness of what drives your rate is key to understanding the market and getting a good deal. Whatever your level of interest in the markets always feel free to post a comment below or contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk for information.

I think the big movers for the pound itself this year will stem from the prospects of further QE as well as UK growth prospects. Significant independent GBP moves should only really be affected by these concerns. For the month of January we are unlikely to see QE and henceforth a big drop for the pound looks unlikely. Therefore anyone who can hold out longer before they sell the pound for a currency may find an opportunity in the future. This means that those selling a foreign currency to buy sterling may wish to position themselves to move sooner particularly since current rates are so good.

GBPAUD – Positive data from China and improved global sentiments due to the fiscal cliff are keeping the Aussie strong. 1.60 has been a target for many of my GBPAUD buyers but this rate looks unlikely to be hit anytime soon. Conversely those selling are targeting a 1.50 so we are loosely in the middle of such rates. Current market conditions indicate to me there is more chance of the rate hitting 1.50 before 1.60 due to likelihood the Australian economy will remain strong and the fact the pound looks unlikely to stage the kind of resurgence that would enable 1.60 to be hit. The general improvement in market sentiments due to eurozone stability and resolution of the fiscal cliff back up my claim here but things can change quickly. If you are a buyer or seller of Aussies you can make an enquiry directly with me on jmw@currencies.co.uk and I can keep you posted on developments.

GBPNZD – The Kiwi has strengthened lately as Asian data remains positive. A move towards 2 looks unlikely but we could easily see a change in sentiment down the line. As with the Aussie the current market conditions coupled with a weak pound indicate a move towards 1.90 is more likely than the higher rates. On both currencies sentiments can quickly change so some preparation ahead of needing to make an exchange will help you in achieving the best rate.

GBPCAD – The Canadian Dollar has been boosted from the fiscal cliff deal and improved global sentiments. Now back comfortably below 1.60, this could be a good time for sellers to enter the market. The Canadian economy relies heavily on the US and the indications from the US Federal Reserve QE will end in 2013 also helped the currency. Much like the Aussie and Kiwi I expect the Loonie to be well supported and to only be moved by sharp changes in sentiment. I would be surprised to see us above 1.60 in the short term although the debt ceiling negotiations could provide the kind of spikes we saw late December. If you missed the boat on buying at this time and are waiting for an improvement you could be in luck depending on how long you can hold out and how steady your nerves are.

GBPZAR – The ZAR suffered massively due to uncertainty last year. Political uncertainty is a major turn off for investors and the much lower than expected growth in South Africa due to the uncertainty dented confidence. Nevertheless the South African economy has lots going for it with many mineral resources of interest to the West and East. As with those above it looks more likely the currency has recovered somewhat and a settling of tensions globally has helped the Rand. I think this is the currency the pound is most likely to enjoy strength against simply because it is the weakest overall. Sentiments on the Rand are frayed and it will take time to restore confidence. I would not be surprised to see a move above 14 again but unless there is major uncertainty presented to markets, cannot see it moving significantly higher.

Unfortunately no one has a crystal ball to tell you exactly what will happen in the future. But an awareness of all of the fundamental issues surrounding your currency deal will help you make a decision. We aim to make things as easy and simple for our clients so even if your requirement is just a one off speaking to us could save you thousands. This site and the people behind it have won various awards for our straightforward approach to information for those considering currency transfers. It would be impossible to run trough all the details in one post so if you would like more information on anything to do with an international money transfer (even if it is a one off) please feel free to make contact and we can guide you through the process. We handle bank to bank transfers from 1000 GBP to multi million pound transactions and assure you of the very best rate and service. All the best for 2013, jmw@currencies.co.uk

Spain update what is happening with the EURO (Steve Eakins)

In what has been a fairly quiet few days for the Eurozone all changed yesterday when new data showed the fortunes of Spain and the very important story of whether an official bailout will be requested.  We have discussed this a lot on this blog as it is a huge factor in the strength of the euro moving forward. (Feel free to read down this page for a full breakdown of the bond buying program.)

In summary any data that shows the economy in Spain is weakening, makes it more probable that they will need a bailout, and this bailout, I would expect would weaken the euro and help euro buyers. Yesterday they reported on their debt to GDP or debt ratio and last time this was published it showed a ration of 4.9%. Yesterday the data showed that it had dropped to 4.3% due to additional tax revenues and as a result the euro strengthen.

Other news yesterday showed that Economic Confidence across Europe fell for the eighth month in a row, it now stands at the lowest point we have seen for more than three years. It was expected to fall due to the austerity measures across the Eurozone undermining consumer and business confidence, but when it was published a worse than expected figure was released.

Eurozone Services and Manufacturing Output has also been contracted and with Eurozone Unemployment at the highest since 1995, most analysts now expect the slump in Europe to continue into the fourth quarter. This was also shown as expectations for growth this year and next where recently cut by both the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. You can understand why as five members of the single state are in a recession and a quite a few others are not that far from following them.

So what can we expect from the markets today? 

Later today we have Eurozone Consumer Confidence which is released at 10 am, this is expected to show a contraction and I expect to see GBPEUR fall as a result.

Something else to be aware of today is to highlight that we are at the end of the month. Traditionally this is when bills are paid between the UK Government and the Europeans so we traditionally do see a run on rates in afternoon trading. This I think will be bigger than most months as the US is open again after 2 days closed due to hurricane Sandy.

If you have any exposure to the single currency, the euro, our service is here to help! We provide a pro-active service keeping you up to date with
market movement helping you trade wisely. Highlighting peaks in the market and what times on which days to watch for a positive movement. Simply put if we could not save you money compared to your current provider we would not be in business! So please make contact and experience for yourself why we have received several awards for both our service and our rates of exchange.

You can call us on the normal number or by emailing me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk

Thank you,

Steve Eakins

hse@currencies.co.uk

Pound Sterling Forecast – Data tomorrow to be aware of

Sterling data tomorrow to be aware of:

Tomorrow we have the release of industrial and manufacturing data for the U.K along with Trade balance figures in what is an extremely quiet week for the U.K regarding economic data.

These figures will no doubt be key to the performence of the Pound against all major currencies in trading tomrorow and the only other data of note is the NIESR (National Institute of Social and Economic Research) estimate for U.K GDP figures. This data can cause a shift on the market as the NIESR are not always too far away with their predictions and with the market moving on predictions as well as fact should the number be better or worse than we have generally been seeing the market may move accordingly.

Euro data to be aware of tomorrow:

Tomorrow morning may set the tone for the week regarding the Pound and the Euro as we have head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi speaking at 08:30am along with a flurry of early morning European data including budget, trade balance and general imports and exports. Comments from the head of the ECB on Thursday confirming once agains that he felt the Euro was irreversable are still keeping confidence in the Euro high and therefore helping it gain strength.

To top off the morning of European volatility we finish off with inflationary data for Europe at 10:00am.

Australian Consumer Confidence

The final piece of the currency jigsaw t will be Australian Consumer Confidence which actually is out at 00:30 on Wednesday morning but I thought it would be worth you knowing about if you have an interest in Australian Dollars, I would imagine given the latest drop in interest ratess and the performance levels of the AUD dropping ever so slightly we may see a small drop in confidence however be prepared for anything on this one as the Australians have liked to surprise us of late!

Regarding forecasting it is hard to know what the week may bring until after we have seen the majority of results out tomorrow morning as there are so many variables it is hard to predict without a few of the facts from Europe laid out in black and white.

Keep coming back to the site for our predictions and to hear twhat effect the result of tomrorow’s data has had on your currency transfer.

Ultimately no one can say exactly what will happen on exchange rates which is why a bit of forward planning is essential.

For more information on getting the very best exchange rates plus a forecast unique to your particular requirements please feel free to make contact directly with me Daniel Wright djw@curencies.co.uk  or call 01494 787 478. I welcome any enquiries for  clients looking for assistance on their transfers. I look forward to hearing from you and hopefully enlightening you! Thank you.

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