Pound Sterling Forecast

This week is sure to be a lively one, below is what is due out and what I feel may happen:

This morning – Inflationary data has been released for the U.K (09:30am)

13:30pm Retail Sales (USA) – One for those with an interest in the Dollar this afternoon with Retail Sales figures being released. Many top analysts still believe the Dollar will launch a fight back in the coming weeks and months, and some believe the Dollar will have a strong year (making it more expensive to buy). Expectations for this release is an improvement and personally I feel the release will be good, but not quite as good as expected however this isn’t a huge release so no major market movement expected from this one.

21:45 Retail Sales (New Zealand) – This one will effect the ever strong New Zealand Dollar, which has had a great few months (Not so great for Britons with money to shift over there). The data covers the last quarter of 2011 and expectations are for a drop, this may lead to a short term spike against the new Zealand Dollar however in my opinion unless we see real global uncertainty again soon the the NZD will stay reasonably strong.

23:30 Consumer Confidence (Australia) – A late release for Australian Dollar followers which will show the confidence levels of individuals have in the economy and how things are going in Australia, many clients I speak to say all is not as rosy as is being made out over in Australia unless you are in the mining industry, but lets see what this brings, personally much like the NZD I feel the AUD will stay strong unless something major happens worldwide.

Tomorrow 08:00am (German GDP) – A key indicator as to how the largest economy involved in the Euro is performing, this is followed up at 10:00 by GDP data for the European Monetary Union. A bad release for Germany may indicate that the worst is yet to come as the EMU is expected to release a negative figure for Q4 of 2011.

Tomorrow 09:30am (U.K Unemployment) – A flurry of unemployment data for the U.K which is not expected to be too good (yet again). If you have Pounds and wish to buy a foreign currency it may be prudent to seriously consider your options before this release.

10:30am – (Mervyn king’s speech) Mr King seems to be very good at making the Pound weaken, whether it be on purpose or not  and those that have tracked Sterling over the past few years will indeed be well aware of this, certainly one to watch with interest… In my opinion Wednesday will be the most volatile day and I expect it to be poor for Sterling.

Thursday – Overnight (Australian Unemloyment Rate) No huge changes to unemployment expected in Australia however as always expect the unexpected in this market!

09:00 – ECB monthly Report - The European Central bank will release their monthly report on Thursday morning, this will give an indication as to how they plan to deal with the economy in the coming monthand what has happened in the past month, we may see a hint as to whether or not we can expect another cut in interest rates as has been mentioned of late, if this is mentioned with an indication for next month, we may see Euro weakness following it.

Friday 09:30am – U.K Retail Sales (January) How well did the retail sector perform after Christmas, I feel the U.K tightened their belts during this period and it would not surprise me to see another poor start to the day for the Pound.

12:00pm Canadian Inflation data – The Bank of Canada release inflation data at noon, slight rise to 0% is expected and any change from this could lead to movements either way… again we do appear to be range bound against this currency however I feel that sub 1.55 is just around the corner unless the U.K can bring us an unexpected good week.

13:30pm U.S Inflation- Inflation time for the States to round off the week, personally I feel this won’t be a big one for the markets unless something major is thrown into the mix.

In short I think the Pound will find it tough this week, if you have a bank to bank transfer to make from sterling to a major currency or from a major currency to Sterling then contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk to make sure you really are getting the best exchange rates for your transfer along with the highest level of customer service and efficiency. I look forward to hearing from you.

Halfway to recession?

Yesterday morning saw the release of U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures for the fourth quarter of 2011 released and unfortunately they did not make great reading for the U.K. Gross Domestic Product figuresshow how much an economy grew or contracted in that particular period and the prediction was for the U.K economy to have shrunk by 0.1%

The figure actually came out at -0.2% which doesn’t sound a lot but it does however mean we are indeed closer to a recession than many had first thought.

An economy is officially in a recession when it has two consecutive quarters of negative growth and with the U.K ending the year with one there is every chance now we could start the year with our second and the Pound may drop accordingly.

We will not find out the results for Q1 2012 until April – but if indications are there that this may be negative then Sterling exchange rates may find the next few months very tough – So far in the U.K we have managed to dodge any serious winter conditions, such as the weather we saw this time last year however should it come back and the economy take a hit accordingly then this may be enough to tip the balance.

Of course there are various problems globally that will no doubt hold back many other major currencies, The Euro Zone is also expected to drop back into recession territory as a whole at points this year so there will no doubt be various buying and selling opportunities along the way. Call us today on 0044 1494 725353 should you have an upcoming requirement and let us be that extra pair of eyes and ears on the market for you.

BOE Minutes – How will further QE affect the Pound?

The Bank of England minutes were also released yesterday and the results of which are probably why the Pound did not take a nosedive yesterday. All nine members of the BOE voted in favour of interest rates staying on hold and also, which is key the (QE) stimulus plan to be left on hold for the time being. It looks like the market had slightly priced in further QE in the near term and the fact that not one member was in favour right now should delay further stimulus for another month or two.

When more money is pumped into the economy it generally does weaken the Pound, and regular readers will be aware the mere mention of this does lead to weakness for the Pound, so be aware this will be a hot topic in the coming months.

Federal Reserve minutes and Dollar Exchange rates

Last night the Federal Reserve released their minutes from the first interest rate decision of the year in the U.S. They also tend to comment on economic conditions and how they plan to tackle their economic problems going forward.

In a Statement the Fed state that they expect interest rates to remain extremely low until late 2014 which did weaken the Dollar slightly shortly after the release. Interest rate hikes generally make a currency more attractive to investors and the fact they are planning to keep this low for quite some time may put investors off of putting their money into the USD.

I personally still expect the Dollar to perform well this year due to the problems globally, if you have Dollars to purchase this could be a great opportunity for you as it wouldn’t surprise me to see the GBP-USD rates below 1.50 in the next six weeks.

However, in a press conference later on last night some slightly positive news for Dollar buyers was the fact that Ben Bernanke had stated that the Fed would still be prepared to inject financial stimulus in the near term, which has opened up the door for QE3 in the U.S. This has been expected for some time though so I do not expect this to weigh too heavily on the Dollar.

KEY DATA WATCH: U.S  GDP Data Tomorrow at 13:30pm – This data could lead to a volatile end to the week as it is a key indicator as to how the U.S economy is performing. Expectations are for a reasonable jump in the right direction which could round off the week on a high for the Dollar.

RBNZ Interest Rate decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates on hold last night, giving the NZD a little more strength overnight. NZD rates are (like the AUD) closing in on the lowest we have seen in years and there is no guarantee they will be shooting back up again soon, with interest rates staying high and economic data fairly solid you may have quite a wait on your hands if you are awaiting a large movement back.

Data that may affect the Pound Today

Today is extremely quiet on the data front for the Pound and most majors, however do be aware that at any point we could hear news on the Greek debt talks. If so called ‘positive’ news comes from the talks then going on previous movements we could see some Euro strength pushing the Pound back below 1.19 and back out of arms reach of 1.20.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes….

There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Good morning readers, overnight we saw the Chinese GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data come out much better than expected, with China being a major factor to the continuing positive charge from the Australian Dollar  this has pushed the AUD to new highs.

Good day to you on what is statistically meant to be the most miserable and depressing day of the year, I hope you are all holding up well!

The week ahead looks to be a reasonably interesting one yet again, with a flurry of employment and inflation data and Mervyn King speaking too.

Those with an interest in the Australian Dollar may wish to keep a keen eye on the Chinese GDP data out overnight, should this be poor then we could see a small dent back in the AUD, better than expected and we could see new record lows.

Tomorrow Inflation data is out for the U.K followed by a speech from hea of the Bank of England Mervyn King, He is becoming ever nororious for knocking the Pound back when all looks to be heading the right way and a mention of Quantitative Easing plans may well do exactly that.

Wednesday is unemployment information, personally I would be surprised with the number of cuts we have seen and small businesses seemingly disappearing if this data is good, we may have a hairy few days lined up for Sterling if this is the case.

Australian Unemployment and U.S inflation data steps up on Thursday, hearing from contacts over in Australia I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Australian Dollar lose ground and some poor data to come out as apparently all isn’t as rosy as the currency strength suggest over in AUS.

Retail Sales for the U.K round of the week, probably will be reasonable as in the run up the Christmas stores were absolutely rammed and the boxing daty sales certainly didn’t show any sign of a recession from what I  could see.

In short, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound start off the week slowly and then climb back towards the end of the week, however there are plenty of surprises that ould pop up.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in
the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give
clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month
stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the
site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over
their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking
here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote
within minutes….

There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used
someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop
around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk
with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you

Good afternoon all,

As I said in my post on Monday today has indeed been by far the most volatilie of the week and as my fellow www.poundsterlingforecast.com writers have said in the last few days… The days of 1.20 did not last long and rates are right back into the 1.19s.

If you have missed the boat then don’t worry too much, rates could shift back up again, however this is not by any means 100% guaranteed!!

I always say that with currency transactions the greedy amoung us end up losing out the most, however I completely understand it is extremely easy to just keep holding out for that little bit extra and many of my clients do, the trouble is if rates then go down again you find yourself caught in a vicious circle desperate for rates to go back where they had been when you could have locked in… a very dangerous and rocky road to travel down!

A word of advice, if you have an upcoming currency transfer then set yourself a target level, if it hits it then buy it straight away and just don’t watch the market any more, more is lost through indecision rather than a poor decision!!

Both the Bank of England and European Central Bank kept rates on hold today, with a member of the BOE saying he felt we had to get more QE (Quantitative Easing) into place, those that are regular readers will know the mere mention of QE has tended to lead to Sterling losing strength, and just the mere rumour of it still carries great force.

The Euro had got weaker due to speculation of a rate cut too which obviously did not happen today, leading to a fight back for the single currency against both the Dollar and Sterling.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in
the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give
clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month
stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the
site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over
their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking
here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote
within minutes….

There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used
someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop
around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk
with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.

I’m sure I wasn’t the only one that had to prise myself out of bed this morning, but i’m back into the swing of things now and so are the markets with a minor fightback against the Dollar in early morning trading and fairly flat against the rest.

This week presents a lot of important data to kick the year off, this evening being the next release of interest as the Federal Reserve (Kind of the U.S version of the Bank of England monetary policy committee) release their minutes. I don’t expect any shocks tonight but again the U.S are good at throwing little surprises into the market so those with an interest in buying or indeed selling USD may wish to put protection in place in advance of this.

Tomorrow brings some data for the U.K at 09:30am with mortgage approvals, not a huge release unless the figure differs a lot from expectations.

Overnight tomorrow night we see the release of trade balance figures for the high flying Australian Dollar, personally after the slowing up of China it wouldn’t surprise me to see these slightly worse than expected and a small movement back in the right direction for the Pound however be warned the Australians spent most of 2011 surprising everyone so this certainly is not set in stone!

Friday is the biggest day of note for Euro, U.S Dollar and Canadian Dollar starting off with retail sales and unemployment data for Europe at 10:00am – to be honest with the continuing European problems one would imagine these aren’t going to be great, 12:00 brings unemployment data for Canada and with the Canadian Dollar haveing a great few weeks another bit of positive data could push this down even further, however no change is expected.

The biggest release of the week is in my opinion Non Farm Payroll Data for the States – This release can be just as important as interest rate decisions for the following reason – The markets move on rumour as well as fact and experts predictions of this release can be a million miles away therefore causing large swings in the rates of exchange as the markets price the actual result in accordingly. This release also seems to effect the markets as a whole and can cause volatility for all currencies so you really do need to have a close eye on rates on Friday at 13:30pm.

If you have a currency transfer to carry out either now or any point this year and want to get the best rates of exchange, email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I shall be happy to assist you both with my opinion on timing and when you do decide to do it I can get you the best rate too – I look forward to hearing from you soon.

Some great movements seen of late for those looking to buy Euros, however you must still be aware of the problems within the U.K that are managing to slither beneath the headlines currency wise and the Pound is still making great gains against the Euro.

Unemployment in the U.K has hit its highest point in 17 years and we just this mornnig had much worse than expected Retail Sales results, there are consistent mentions of strikes in the U.K in many different sectors and there is certainly a grey cloud emerging over us for 2012, yes it might blow over and we may see blue skies towards the summer, but also it could open up to create a real downpour on the U.K economy.

I have many clients at present waiting for the golden 1.20 mark against the Euro however all I can say is this needs to be thought out more…. Just like setting your alarm clock in the morning it is very easy to aim for an exact figure like 07:30am or 08:00am, this is the same with currency rates, everyone aims for 1.15 or 1.20 – The problem you get is that when rates approach these levels they find it very hard to break through as thousands and thousands of orders get filled at 1.20 pushing rates straight back down again. Remember, you need rates to go over and above 1.20 to be able to buy at 1.20 yourself so this makes it very hard to achieve.

The sensible option is to aim for 1.19 and be one step ahead of the rest in case rates just don’t break through 1.20 enough and you miss the boat… That would be my tactic in this minefield of currency movements.

Great news for USD or AED sellers as all this uncertainty is pushing your rates in the right direction again, also those looking for the Antipodean Currencies AUD,NZD and ZAR) however remember these trends are very much short term at the moment and rate movements are turning around quicker than  I can say Quantitative Easing (Although that does take a while!)

The key to this market is being in a postiion to book out a rate of exchange and making sure you don’t get too greedy, should you have an upcoming transfer to make be it buying or selling Sterling then feel free to contact me directly, leaving a brief message and a contact number for me to give you a call on – I can be reached on djw@currencies.co.uk  Or you can fill in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page.

European
Agreement takes shape

A historic agreement was finally put in place on Friday revolving
around deeper economic integration for EU countries. However, Britain (The
third largest economy In Europe) at present has refused to be involved, with
David Cameron feeling that concessions were just not there for the U.K
regarding financial regulations.

It could now take at least three months for these agreements to
fully take shape, as there are many loseable referendums along the way for the
26 countries involved.

This all leads to an interesting few weeks before Christmas,
reports in the Sunday papers yesterday suggested Nick Clegg is not happy with
the decision of Cameron, which indeed places further pressure on the coalition
– with political stability being a factor for currency strength, a break up or
even growing speculation of it may be very damaging for the Pound.

Also, over half of trade for the U.K goes through these countries,
and there is now the risk that the U.K could drift apart from the continental
mainland and relations both politically and in trade could slow down. Again,
whilst it is unquestionable that the Euro Zone has huge problems, the U.K has
many large ones of its own, and our while our Prime minister is busy at
countless meetings surrounding fixing the Euro – who is dealing with our
problems?

Usually, we put our predictions in our reports however with the
various complications that could be thrown into the hat this week in all
honesty I don’t know where GBP-EUR
will end up… David Cameron doesn’t know, Angela Merkel doesn’t know and with
something unprecedented like this I don’t believe anyone knows.

Instead, I will lay out the options available to you in order to
protect yourself should something really hit the fan in the next few days.

Option
1 – With the positive movement for
Sterling in the past week or so against the Euro, those looking to buy Euros could book out a forward contract, this is whereby you
can lock into a rate of exchange with us for up to two years with just a small
deposit. At the risk of sounding like a game show host, it could be a great
idea to lock in half of the currency you require and ‘bank’ the current rate if
current rates are above budget. For people due to receive Euros this contract
option could be the protection you have been longing for too, as we can take a
Sterling based deposit should you not have Euros in your coffers.

Option 2 – Should you not really wish to
jump in with two feet and lock in to a rate, yet wish to be protected if there
is a bug turn for the worse then a stop-loss
order may be ideal. You essentially can decide on a buying price you would not
be happy to go below, and if we see a sudden drop in rates, your currency is
automatically bought out at that level – even if it is at 4am on a Saturday…
This saves the busier of you from watching markets 24/7 yet keeps you
protected, we also offer a limit order which works the other way should there
be a rate you wish to achieve. Both of these orders can be cancelled or amended
at any time if not filled and do not cost you a penny to put in place. Contact
me by filling in the form on the right hand side of this page today to discuss
these in more detail.

Dollar to
benefit from all of this? Swiss devalue again?

Many analysts believe the big winner from all of this may now be the USD. In times
of uncertainty historically investors have ran to the perceived ‘safer haven’
of the USD, with gold being seen as a safe bet also being priced in USD, demand
for the currency increases and therefore so does its value.

If political matters in the U.K continue to take the headlines
along with riots, static interest rates and ever decreasing growth forecasts
then as an investor, although the States has problems of its own I know where I
would put my money, it would not surprise me now to see GBP-USD dip below 1.50
in the early part of 2012.

For the past few years the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen had taken
away some demand for the USD in uncertain times, with the Swiss Franc having
increased in value by over 50% during this global crisis at its peak. Since
then, both the Swiss and Japanese have moved to devalue their currency
artificially as the strength was starting to seriously impact their exports, in
fact there are growing rumours that the Swiss may devalue again and with their
interest rate decision due on Thursday, if you have Swiss francs to sell then I
would seriously consider the options mentioned earlier in this report, a second
devaluing could push GBP-CHF well above 1.55.

The Federal Reserve (US) Interest rate decision is also due on
Tuesday evening and the U.S have thrown a spanner into the works in the past so
for those with a pending Dollar interest make sure we are aware, fill in the form on the right hand side of this page and I will be happy  to guide you throughout the process.

Data out today

 A quiet day data wise today but I’m sure the markets will have plenty to react to
with the European announcements, which will probably be the talking point of
the week (yet again). Make sure your Christmas isn’t spent watching exchange
rates and get your protection in place, or at least let us be your eyes and
ears on the market for you – contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like assistance or have any questions or queries
surrounding this report – Thanks for reading.

The Pound has once again this week been fairly range-bound against the Euro as neither currency has managed to put it’s right foot forward and take command in this strange market… Against the Dollar however we have had an extremely volatile week so far and i’m sure the Non-Farm Payroll data (unemployment data) due out tomorrow afternoon will not be a quiet one either to wrap up the week.

Again uncertainty had been the key in early week trading with the Dollar slowly gaining ground and looking liee it may continue to with minor force then out of nowhere we see yet another surprise pop up yesterdaywith the Central Banks agreement to pump some liquidity into the financial system in a bid to get things moving again. This bought some confidence back into the markets, stocks and shares soared and we also saw a large Dollar sell off leading the Dollars becoming cheaper to buy.

Following the usual pattern of late, the ‘riskier’ currencies also found some huge force as investors looked to get involved with them, increasing demand and meaning that currencies like the Australian Dollar, South African Rand and the New Zealand Dollar bit back with a vengance.

Tomorrow non farm payroll data will set the scene for afternoon trading, with the liquidity boost and such rapid currency movements following it, this does suggest that if you do have transfers to carry out you must make sure you protect yourself from unexpected and rapid adverse market movements. A tool we offer here is a stop-loss which does exactly that. Feel free to contact me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to explain exactly how it works and assist with any currency transfers you are looking to carry out.

I look forward to speaking with you.