Tag Archives: england
Sterling exchange rates following inflation data – The Bank of England is stuck in a tricky position to say the least (Daniel Wright)
The Pound has risen ever so slightly this morning following inflationary data coming out slightly higher than expected.
The Bank of England would like the Pound to be weaker but the problem they face is that the lower the Pound the more imports will cost, therefore goods are more expensive which is not good for inflation.
Raising interest rates to combat inflation will lead to more expensive borrowing costs for everyone and growth being stunted due to less investment.
Not a nice position to be in – A rock and a hard place comes to mind!
For those of you that do not follow the markets the reason that this has led to the Pound gaining value is that the Bank of England do not want to have inflation getting too high and this is a sign that is is creeping up (things are getting more expensive to buy). The best way top tackle high inflation is to raise interest rates and a hike in interest rates generally is seen as positive to the currency concerned as it makes it more attractive to investors.
The currency markets do move in advance of things like this happening which is why the Pound has gained as the chance of a rate hike has increased ever so slightly.
Of course there are a lot of other factors that may affect rates in the coming days, we have the Bank of England minutes tomorrow morning which will show us how many members voted in favour of or against both Quantitative Easing and an interest rate change.
Indications that we are on the edge of further QE may be seen as negative for the Pound and the last few months this has been the more likely however any indications that members heads are moving towards a hike in rates could lead to another boost for Sterling.
Be aware we also have the budget tomorrow which in all honesty is rarely a big market mover however you always need to be cautious of a surprise popping up!
If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out from bank to bank and you want not only to maximise your exchange rates but also to receive a great level of service and assistance then feel free to contact me directly by email email@example.com with a brief description of your requirement and a contact number and I will be more than happy to call you straight back. We have won numerous awards both for our rates and customer service and I will be highly surprised if I cannot save you money over your current provider.
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Currency market latest – More doom and gloom for the Pound? The Bank of England certainly are not helping! Capital flight in full force to the Eurozone (Daniel Wright)
With reports of a huge capital flight back to the Eurozone as investor confidence increases along with the view that the worst is over, what now for Sterling exchange rates?
What does not help is the new Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has also now indicated he may take an aggressive stance with more QE when he takes the reins in July.
The latest news
The Financial Times is reporting today that a huge capital flight back to the Eurozone is occurring which it part of the reason that we are seeing such big shifts for the GBP/EUR rate at present.
The problem those of you that are waiting for a recovery for the pound against the majority of major currencies have is that there are few indications that we will see things turn around in the near term unless we see some big news soon.
Economic data for the U.K throughout January was particularly poor to say the least and it just feels like the bank of England are only too happy to see a weaker Pound at present which certainly does not assist those of you with large upcoming transactions to make.
It is very easy in this situation to just keep waiting for the market to move back in the right direction however hope is not something that can move the markets so you do need to look at your options extremely seriously as deadlines loom.
There are options available if you don’t have full availability of funds, you lock into a rate of exchange for the future with just a small deposit.
If there is a particular trading level you are looking to achieve you can place a limit order – Meaning if your required level is achieved at any point 24 hours a day 7 days a week even for a second then your currency will be bought out automatically for you – There is no cost to place this order and as long as it has not filled then it can be canceled or amended at any time.
We have a fairly quiet week on the data front this week, the most notable is Non-Farm Payroll data for the States on Friday which can affect all major currencies as it will effect investors attitude to risk, this is at 13:30pm on Friday.
Transfer to carry out?
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Important day for all markets today – bank of England interest rate decision and European Central Bank interest rate decision to be of interest for all currencies including GBP EUR USD AUD NZD CAD CHF ILS PLN and all majors as attitude to risk may change
An important day on the markets today for all those with currency requirements in the near future as we have both the Bank of England and European Central Bank interest rate decisions due at 12:00opm and 12:45pm respectively.
No change in interest rates is expected although there is a minor chance of a surprise cut the important factors however is that we could see key announcements of comments shortly following the decisions.
The Bank of England seem to be very good at weakening the Pound and any mention of further QE (Quantitative Easing) may lead to Sterling weakness or indeed any other spanners thrown into the works for the U.K economy.
Shortly after the European Central Bank interest rate decision we have the ECB press conference which should be key for those with interest in all major currencies. The reason that the Euro has gained back a lilttle strength, currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR have also strengthened and the USD weakned against the Pound over the start of the week is the fact the head of the ECB (w3ho will be heading up the press conference) made extremely positive comments about the Euro and how he plans to do everything he can to save the Euro going forward. These comments sent bond yields tumbling away from the worrying 7% level for Spain and Italy and meant that investors had a better attitude to risk suddenly, meaning they get involved in riskier investments and pull funds out of the ‘safer haven’ currencies such as the U.S Dollar.
I expect that Mario Draghi will not have changed his stance over the past few days and we could see another Euro positive press conference this afternoon, leading to potential strength for the Pound against the Dollar and weakness against a basket of other majors inclusive of EUR, AUD, NZD and ZAR. Of course anything can happen in these decisions and conferences and there is a lot going on behind closed doors at the moment but if you have a transaction to carry out it is key you have a proactive currency broker on your side.
Should you have a bank to bank currency transaction to carry out either imminently or in the future then I can personally help you. I deal with private and corporate clients and offer not only award winning rates of exchange but an award winning level of customer service to match. Email me today email@example.com if you would like assistance and I shall be more than happy to call you back, If you just want updates for now then feel free to join our mailing list by filling in the form at the top right hand side of this page.
Euro remains stable as markets await Coalition news – Reserve Bank of Australia minutes show rate decision finely balanced and Bank of England minutes tomorrow are key for the Pound
As I had predicted in my post on Friday the Greek elections, although built up to be a huge thing for the currency markets actually didn’t lead to much change at all, it will still be indeed the coming days and weeks that will be the important part and will decide where the Euro is the head next… Once again it seems like the market is now range bound awaiting the next big push.
Assuming we still have no further news from the Greeks then the big news for Sterling Euro will be the Bank of England minutes out tomorrow morning at 09:30am. CPI data this morning is the pick of the data for the U.K today at 09:30am which may give the Pound a short term boost if it comes out that little bit higher than expected but I doubt it will be making too much of an impact on a market which just appears to have all traders eyes on our Greek friends. The Bank of England minutes will be an overview of what was said at the last BOE interest rate decision and any nod to Quantitative Easing may lead to the Pound weakining, however we did see a new stimulus package put in place last week so I don’t expect major fireworks.
The RBA overnight released their meeting minutes and it suggested that it was a close decision to cut interest rates in Australia last month which suggests the RBA may hold fire on another cut at the next rate decision. Intrerest rate cuts are usually seen as negative for the currency concerned and a hike in rates seen as positive, so the fact they may hold off may lead to the AUD gaining back some strength in the short term. The fact that the Greek scenario is now looking slightly more positive (however nowhere near fixed) may also strangthen currencies such as the AUD, NZD, ZAR and CAD.
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Bank of England Interest Rate Decision Today – Non Farm Payroll Data One To Be Wary Of Tomorrow Whilst The UK Is Off!
Today sees the release of the Bank Of England Interest rate decision, no change in rates is expected and to be honest I feel it will probably be a bit of a non event, however be aware that the BOE do like to throw a spanner into the works whenever the Pound does start to perform well so anyhting could happen.
The key data for people to be aware of is U.S Non Farm Payroll data – Regular readers will be aware this can effect all major currencies and can lead to just as much market volatility as an interest rate decision. Now, the big problem is that we have a bank holiday in the U.K this means that you will find it hard to call your bank or broker to book out an exchange rate should rates either move drastically against you or indeed in your favour. There are options available to youand I can help you should your bank not offer these options. You can place a limit order and a stop loss order, this means you set yourself an ideal trading level, or a worst case scenario and should either get hit then your currency is bought out or sold automatically for you, I would then merely get in touch after the Easter break to inform you and you would be required to settle the contract with us as per normal.
I work for Froeign Currency Direct and built this site to help give people simple information on the markets without all the technical analysis that quite simply confuses people, If you find my site of use or want to get more information on how I can save you money then do feel free to email me directly email@example.com and I shall be happy to help.
The Pound Could have a hard morning this morning – Bank of England minutes, GDP data and mortgage approvals all at 09:30am!
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound take a bit of a hit today as it sees three key data releases at once this morning.
Firstly, BOE minutes are released and with growing speculation and calls for further Quantitative Easing in the U.K (generally seen as negative for the Pound) the minutes will show how many members of the BOE voted in favour of (or against) more QE – An increase to the amount of positive vtes compared to last time will signal we are closer to seeing more QE and with the markets moving on rumour as well as fact this could dent the Pound.
On top of this, following numerous growth forecast downgrades last year we have GDP figures for the fourth quarter of last year, they are actually predicted to show a contraction which actually might work in the Pounds favour as if we come out with no growth or positive growth it could counter act the QE as it would be seen as much more positive than expectations, however if we do see negative growth then we are officially half way to a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth) and may drop rapidly today.
Mortgage approvals are the third of the trio today, in all honesty I think these may be overshadowed by the other two releases, all in all my personal opinion if this could be a hard morning for the Pound overall.
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Bank of England minutes most important for the Pound – released tomorrow morning… Will Mervyn King do Sterling a favour for once?? Doubtful!
Well what can I say…. I go away for a long weekend and the Pound has slipped away again against the Euro….. The single currency appears to not know how to lay down and give up, and investors out there somewhere are still more than happy to back it.
Tomorrow morning is the next key data due for the U.K and indeed the Pound – further doom and gloom from the U.K could knock the Pound even further against the Euro.
The Pound is indeed still gaining ground against the perceived ‘riskier currencies’ such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR as investors risk appetite declines accross the world, as mentioned before when risk appetite is generally low then the more exotic currencies can tend to weaken…. great news for those of you looking to emigrate further afield!
Personally I feel the Pound will creep up a little further against the AUD, NZD and ZAR in the near term, until some major issues accross Europe at least have reasonably solid solutions in place to resolve them.
Tomorrow will be key for those with Euro requirements be it buying or selling as we could easily see a shift of quite some force surrounding the Bank of England’s release. It would not surprise me to see the Pound struggle again against the Euro and a spanner to be thrown into the works, it is easy when you have a currency transaction to carry out to stare upwards and just hope that rates follw suit, the problem is the currency markets can quite easily nip in your back pocket and steal your wallet whilst you are looking at the sky, and there is no guarantee that they will give it back and rates will return.
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An important release this morning for the U.K and indeed the Pound, we see the Bank of England minutes out at 09:30am and these are key for how we see the Pound perform over the coming few hours. We will find out just how many members of the BOE voted in favour of interest rates to be left on hold and what the vote was for further QE (Quantitative Easing) to be introduced.
Should it have been a tight decision this may be seen as slightly positive for the Pound as it suggests that we may not see more further down the line for some time, however if there was a major majority that had become in favour then we could be prepared for more QE in the future.
My personal feeling is that the minutes will not throw up any major surprises this morning however it is about time the Bank of England threw in a curveball as it has been a while, Mervyn King did speak yesterday surrounding the global economy and as seemingly always managed to weaken the Pound slightly so be prepared for absolutely anything to happen in this mornings trading.
If you are in the process of buying property abroad and want to achieve the best rate of exchange for your purchase then please do feel free to contact me directly firstname.lastname@example.org and I will be more than happy to assist you.
Bank of England Minutes – Members vote 9-0 in favour of no change at all to interest rates – No sign of an interest rate hike for a long time – What does this mean to your transfer?
This morning saw the Bank of England minutes released, and as predicted led to Sterling weakness, not great news at all for those of you looking to send money overseas. The members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Commitee) voted 9-0 in favour of no interest rate movement at all. Markets move on rumour as well as fact and have already moved down slightly following this release. An interest rate hike is usually seen as positive for the currency concerned as it makes it much more attractive to investors (would you rather put you money in the U.K earning little to no interest or in Australia getting up to 7%???)
Now that all members are in full agreement it does really push the chances of a hike back condsiderably and some analysts are even questioning the chance of it happening at all in 2012, this may now hamper any serious Sterling strength in the short term against all major currencies. I am still in the belief that we may see Euro weakness at some point as there are just so many problems within Europe however when and how much is hard to work out, as the Euro has still managed to stand fuirm over the past year or so even though it is taking plenty of hits.
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- Voted 8-1 to keep QE at 200 bln (Quantitative Easing)
- Dale and Weale voted for 25 bps rate hike
- MPC judges downside risks to medium term inflation have risen in past month, upside risks stable (cable lower)
- Some members think possible more QE might be warranted if downside risks materialise
- GDP growth weak, latest data suggest likely to be below historic average in middle of 2011
- Public inflation expectations more firmly rooted than might have been expected
- Weale and Dale say case for rate hike rise remains strong, despite weak growth outlook data. Concerned rate of wage growth consistent with low inflation may have fallen