Tag Archives: eur
GBPEUR Forecast – Will rates drop lower in April? Unlike the weather which remains as cold as a few weeks ago, the pound has shaken off some of the worst of this year. Concerns over Cyprus and the stability of euro zone banks, plus a slightly better performing pound indicate to me a fairly range bound few weeks of anywhere between 1.16 and 1.19. Significant gains for sterling look limited, as do significant gains for the euro. On balance I expect rates to be higher towards the end of the month as sterling slightly recovers and attention remains on the Euro zone economies.
What next for sterling? Will we triple dip? How can I protect myself? The next big event this month will be confirmation of whether or not the UK is in a triple dip recession. Numerous recent reports have hinted that the UK may have avoided the triple dip. I personally think this will be the case and we may see the pound find a bit of strength towards
the end of the month. If you are selling a foreign currency to buy pounds it may be prudent to act sooner rather than later. The New Zealand dollar is at close to all-time highs against sterling as are many other currencies. For more information to help you decide on when may be best to enter the market you can speak to our trading floor direct on UK Freephone 01494 787 478 and check live interbank rates here.
Should you have anything to consider in the future our specialist service is designed to save you money. For a free, no obligation chat or quote to see jus how good we really are you can speak with me directly on jmw@Currencies.co.uk
Why is the Pound still getting weaker? Here is my take on what may be happening – Sterling drops again against EUR, USD, AUD, NZD,CAD,ZAR,CHF and all majors (Daniel Wright)
The Pound has once again had a pretty dire week after a fairly positive end to last weeks trading.
Strangely we had some very positive data out yesterday as the CBI (Confederation of British Industry) announced that they feel that the U.K may avoid a triple dip recession when the GDP figures for the first quarter of 2013 are released in April. Usually this would bring a little strength to the Pound but still Sterling continues to suffer.
Today Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King spoke at 10:30am – He kept up to his usual pattern and by 11:00am the Pound had dropped dramatically against most major currencies, personally I feel there is a game plan behind all of this and that the BOE and U.K Government are aiming to keep the value of the Pound low throughout this quarter.
If the Pound remains low then exports of goods and services from the U.K should increase, this increase may be the key to make us just avoid a triple dip recession which is what I personally see as the main aim at present. Should the U.K drop into the triple dip territory then the risk of a credit rating downgrade may increase which may make it more costly for the U.K to borrow and could put us into further trouble.
Once (assuming we do) we have avoided the triple dip recession then it gives the BOE and Government another 6 months to play with where they can concentrate a little more on inflation and various other targets not being met, we may even see a small hike in interest rates after April which should lead to a little Sterling strength.
I am afraid though if you are looking for a stronger Pound and your business has a pending currency transfer to make, you are in the process of buying a property overseas or you just sent wages out to another country you may be in for a rocky ride for a few months. Of course I may be completely wrong and the markets are so volatile at present that even a sniff of the Euro zone crisis coming back to a head and things may change completely – That is the beauty (or problem with) the currency markets.
One thing you do need to make sure of if you are in the position where you need to buy or sell any amount of currency involving a bank to bank transfer then you should have a proactive currency broker on your side who can be your eyes and indeed ears on the market. I personally welcome any new clients and treat every transfer the same whether it is £1000 or £5,000,000 as I completely understand that everyone’s need is different and to some people every little counts, so I aim to make everyone a saving over their bank or indeed current broker.
Feel free to contact me directly for a live quote or even for a brief discussion surrounding your requirements. You can email me on firstname.lastname@example.org please note we only deal with bank to bank transfers and no cash or speculation. Please also remember to leave a contact number and time to call when sending me an email.
I look forward to speaking with you.
It has turned out to be an extremely poor day for sterling sellers as the pound has weakened to worse the levels in 5 months against the USD trading at 1.5743, currently at a 14 month low against the Euro trading at 1.1498 and the pound has also lost over 1% on the day against the CHF, NZD, ZAR SEK. The pound is down against all the majors.
The losses that the pound has recently been witnessing does not seem to be slowing at any time soon. In fact today we had UK manufacturing data out which was worse than what the markets were predicting. This is showing that there is a real possibility that the UK could dip back into a triple dip recession and is really hindering the pound. Plus the further the UK economy contracts the potential that the UK’s borrowing costs could rise is threatening our AAA rating.
All the above is not helping thoses of you that need to sell the pound. It is now more important than at any other time to make sure when you carry out your exchange you get the best rate possible. Here at www.poundsterlingforecast.com the authors of the site work for one of the largest currency brokers in the UK. All that we do is currency exchange which enables us to offer our clients a very personal one on one service. We will try and help you judge when may be a good time to make your conversion while always striving to make you a significant saving over the banks and any other brokers that you have been dealing with. Please feel free to email me at email@example.com with your requirements and I will contact you straight away to explain all the options that are available to you and how we can help you make a saving on your exchange.
Don’t delay as the longer you are currently leaving your exchange the more expensive it is becoming. If you need to buy the pound then rates are so attractive that we can explain your options as to how you may be able to achieve the best levels in months.
For this currency pairing the real worry is the mountain of poor economic data cwe have had so far this year for the U.K everything is now pointing towards poor GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures this week which could (although probably expected now) give us a further kick whilst we are down and will also get the media back on to the ‘Triple dip recession’ bandwagon! We do need to remember however that the GDP will be for the entire 4th quarter, and with expectations at -0.1% even the release being the slightest bit better than expected could lead to the Pound heading back towards 1.20 as it would suggest recession status is a little way away again at least for the time being.
The Euro however seems to be ever popular and bond auctions have been surprising everyone at the moment as they are showing a great demand. People are investing in the Euro and in turn it is gathering strength rapidly, with the head of the European Central Bank also seemingly confident (or at least showing confidence in his speeches) there could still be a little way to go for this trend, so if you need to book something out in the near term it may be prudent to consider your options and contact your account manager here today on 0800 328 5884.
Head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi is speaking this evening at 18:00pm so be very wary of comments moving exchange rates overnight – You can protect yourself from further adverse market movements by placing a stop-loss order click here for one of our traders to call you back and let you know how this handy tool works. The Pound has dropped by 3.25% this year at the time of writing this as investors appear to question it as an option as a safe haven. To put this into monetary terms it would cost nearly £4000 more for a €150,000 purchase.
Sterling – Dollar
This is why we saw the U.S Dollar and indeed many of the riskier currencies such as the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar gain strength against the Pound in yesterday’s trading. The main movements seemed to happen just as President Obama made his inaugural address. Personally I can see the Dollar starting to drive on from here and would not be surprised to see GBP-USD closer to 1.55 than 1.60 by the end of the week, even if GDP figures are positive.
Sterling – Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar
Creeping close to multi year lows again I personally think we are due a bounce back against these two currencies we just need something to kick start it. Australian inflation data is due overnight however I think the key factor is risk.
When risk appetite is high, investors tend to invest in riskier currencies such as AUD and NZD and thanks to things going quiet on the European crisis and the Fiscal cliff being partially resolved global attitude to risk is returning and with a vengeance.
Personally I feel it is only a matter of time before the next headline crisis or for the PIIGs to become front page news again and when this does happen rates should start to move back in the right direction.
Also be very aware that we could easily see another rate cut in Australia and a cut in rates can lead to negative movement s for the currency concerned. GBP-AUD has gone down by 3.56% so far this year which just goes to show why timing your transfer can be key, this equates to AUD 10,751 less in a matter of weeks on a £200,000 purchase of AUD!
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Here at www.currencies.co.uk we pride ourselves on not just award winning exchange rates but also a pro-active service too. Let your account manager here be your eyes and ears on the market so you can get on with your busy lifestyle. We can highlight movements in your favour or indeed against you which can be vital in this ever changing market. Contact me today by emailing djw@currencies,co.uk and I will be happy to help you.
GBP/EUR exchange rates came down from being up in the 1.23s to a 10 month low currently hovering just above the 1.20 level as I write this.
There are numerous reasons why we have seen this drop and quite frankly slightly surprising turnaround of late. Firstly the U.K Service and manufacturing sector data has been particularly poor so far this year, raising concerns of a triple dip recession in the U.K this year which you would imagine could knock the Pound considerably as the U.K continues to struggle to tread water in these murky trouble filled economic waters.
The NIESR (National Institute of Social and Economic Research) predicted that U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures were due to come out at -0.3% for the final quarter of 2012. The NIESR are generally quite near the mark and GDP is a measure of how much an economy grew or shrank during a particular period of time, so if they are indeed close again this time then we are back in negative territory and two consecutive quarters of negative growth would indeed officially put us in the triple dip recession.. I am sure the papers in the U.K would love that!
On the other side of things the Euro has been gaining strength against most major currencies. Head of the ECB (European Central Bank) Mario Draghi came out with some fairly positive comments at his last press conference and European bonds have sold well in recent auctions suggesting that confidence is pouring back in for investors in the Eurozone. Confidence can be a big market mover and somehow many people seem to have let the tremendous trouble still ahead for Europe, the issues in Spain and Greece have certainly not been resolved and I feel that sooner or later this will all come to a head and we will see the Eurozone crisis as front page news again… The only problem for those looking to buy Euros is that this still may be some time away!
If you are in the position where you need to buy or sell Pound or Euros then it is key to have an experienced and knowledgeable currency broker on your side… It can make a huge difference and when it comes to getting the best rate of exchange when you do decide to trade, it is important to have a broker with award winning exchange rates too.
I can offer you all of the above! If you find my information useful and would like to speak with me personally then I will always be more than happy to help, I deal with bank to bank transactions and not cash or speculation and I generally will transfer anything over £2000 up to multi million Pound transactions.
Feel free to email me directly with a short description of your requirements and with a good number to contact you on and time to call, you do not have to be U.K based to take advantage of this service. You can get in touch with me on firstname.lastname@example.org I look forward to hearing from you.
Sterling continues the start of 2013 with losses. The rest of the week could continue in a similar fashion for buying Euros and US Dollars. (Ben Amrany)
Sterling exchange rates has continued its recent theme of weakening against nearly every one of the 16 most actively traded currencies today. One of the biggest declines has been against the USD with rates hovering at 1.6030, while against the Euro
things are not looking up with the current exchange rate hovering around 1.2265. If the decline in the pound is a concern please feel free to contact me at email@example.com and I can explain the options that are available to minimise your risk to exchange rate fluctuations.
Looking forward I feel that Q1 of 2013 will be a hard time for the pound. All that we have heard since we entered the New Year is how the UK economy will have zero growth and there is an awful lot of think tanks that are predicting the UK to lose its AAA credit rating which could be disastrous for the pound should this occur.
Today we have had the UK Retail figures released and although not as bad as expected, up 1.5% compared to the same month a year earlier if it was not for online purchases – 17.8% jump in online non-food sales, total sales would have fallen. This has been sterling negative and with numerous retailers like Tesco, Sainsbury’s and M&S releasing their earnings this week there could be further misery for the pound should their profits decline.
If you are in need of buying Euros in the near future then there has been a fair bit of data to come out of the Eurozone today. Most importantly was the unemployment data which has shown that unemployment over the whole Eurozone is at its worst ever level at 11.8%
What my greatest concern is that if poor economic data to come out of the Eurozone is strengthening the Euro against the pound, what will happen when the UK posts very poor data. Could we see GBP/EUR test yearly lows? Email me your opinion at firstname.lastname@example.org
The next couple of days could be very volatile for anyone with a sterling/Euro or vice versa transfer to make. It all kicks off tomorrow with the Eurozone releasing their GDP figures tomorrow morning. We are expecting the 16 nation economy to have contracted but remember the unemployment figures today!!! Bad figures and the Euro still strengthened. Great if you are selling your Euros but not so good if you need to buy them. Thursday both the UK and the Eurozone will release their interest rate decisions while on Friday the UK will release their own GDP estimate for Q4 of last year.
If you do need to buy or sell any major currency then do feel free to get in contact with me. I can explain all the options that are available to you to help you minimise your risk to the markets plus help you achieve a much better rate than the high street banks would offer you. We have been helping clients for over 12 years now and if you would like our opinion to help you try and maximise your currency exchange just email me at email@example.com and I will come back to you as quickly as possible.
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Sterling report and forecast – “If Greece gets the green light the Euro may start moving through the gears and driving forward once again” (Daniel Wright)
An extremely important week ahead for Europe and indeed the Euro as European leaders meet once again today to try and get a resolution on the next bout of Greek aid. Looking back at what has happened when we have seen the Europeans come to a conclusion on pending decisions like this previously you tend to see the Euro strengthen as confidence in the Eurozone once again rises.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel seemed confident that this would be agreed in the coming few days saying “There’s no time to waste in finding a solution for Greece. a plan is being intensively worked on,” she said. With little data out today for the U.K and indeed the Eurozone the key for today will be progression with the almost certain agreement being announced. Personally I would not be surprised to see further Euro strength so if you have a transfer involving buying Euros to carry out it may be prudent to contact your account manager this morning on 01494 725353.
We have a similar situation with this pairing however the focus for the States at present is the on-going issue with the Fiscal Cliff. Personally I feel this will get resolved however it will no doubt be at the eleventh hour so I would expect Dollar weakness leading up to the deadline and then a solid USD fight back should a positive outcome be announced.
GDP figures due out for both the U.K on Wednesday and the States on Thursday, along with a considerable amount of economic data for the U.S from Wednesday onwards could lead to a volatile end to the week. If you are looking to buy USD then let us be the eyes and ears on the market for you, click here and one of our experienced and knowledgeable traders will call you back.
There are still plenty of problems for South Africa and I personally feel there will be lots to come in the next few weeks. Interest rates were kept on hold last week but the door is open for us to see an interest rate cut for South Africa in the near future. Recent strikes have led to manufacturing production figures absolutely plummeting and this certainly doesn’t seem to be the end of what could be huge problems for the ZAR which personally I feel may lead to the Rand being extremely volatile and indeed the Pound gaining further ground this week.
A quiet week for Australia and New Zealand on the economic data front however attitude to risk will play a big part in where these pairings will head this week. Should the Greek aid go ahead you would imagine currencies such as the AUD and NZD would strengthen as investors will be more inclined to take on riskier currencies. Global attitude to risk is sure to be key in the coming months with Greece, Spain and the Fiscal cliff being the main drivers for this.
Important Economic data out over the next few days
Today European ECOFIN meeting – As mentioned this could be key for the next tranche of Greek aid, investors will be keeping a close eye on progress throughout the day.
Tomorrow (AM) U.K GDP data – This latest set of figures is out tomorrow morning and the market isn’t expecting much of a shock however you should be wary that the market is there to surprise us.
Tomorrow (PM) A flurry of data for the States tomorrow afternoon with the pick of the bunch being housing data, Consumer Confidence and Federal Reserve’s Ben Bernanke, speaking at 13:30pm.
Wednesday (AM) First thing Wednesday morning we have the release of Swiss GDP data so this with an interest in the Swiss Franc may wish to have either a limit order or stop loss in place for this as it is released at 06:45am.
Thursday (PM) We see the release of U.S GDP on Thursday afternoon, this could easily effect all major currencies so be prepared for a volatile afternoon no matter what currency pairing you are interested in.
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Sterling given a slight boost following UK retail sales survey but still jittery in the wake of Hurricane Sandy (Mike Vaughan)
Sterling exchange rates have been given a slight boost today following a survey that showed better than expected retail sales in October which have improved chances of a sustained economic recovery in the UK. This positive data follows on from the much better than expected GDP data released in the UK last Thursday which showed the UK is officially out of recession posting 1% gains and beating the 0.6% forecasts. The sceptics out there will say that these figures have been grossly over inflated following the London 2012 Olympics and I believe these figures could well be revised down in the months to come, however it clearly indicates the UK is on the right track and as a result I can see a drive in the pounds favour against a number of currencies in the run up to Christmas – as long as the Bank of England decides against extending Quantitative Easing (QE) next week!
Will QE in the UK happen?
If you had asked me this question before last Thursday then my answer would have been a certain ‘yes’ – however last Thursdays impressive GDP data has thrown somewhat of a curve ball to the Bank of England and I am now sitting on the fence as far as this one goes. I do feel the prospect of future QE is still in the minds of the monetary policy committee however I believe this decision will now be delayed until the New Year as they digest the recent positive results and will see how the Christmas period develops. For this reason I believe the pound is in a reasonably strong position and I would see a move towards 1.26/27 for GBP/EUR, as for GBP/USD – this is somewhat of an unknown as the cleanup operation from Hurricane Sandy begins.
As my colleague Daniel discussed in his post below, the outcome of a natural disaster is somewhat of an unknown quantity as far as the money markets is concerned. First and foremost lets hope that Sandy does not prove as destructive as many people expect, however as the New York Stock Exchange is closed for the second day running, the first time in over 100 years that weather has caused the closure of the US markets for two straight days, tomorrow will prove a very interesting day as the market digests the destruction and the cost to the US economy of the cleanup operation.
Should you have an upcoming currency transfer tomorrow could be a very volatile day for all major currencies and I would certainly suggest keeping in contact with your broker should you have a position to arrange in the short term. The impact of Hurricane Sandy could move the markets in either direction but I would certainly expect an initial sell off for the USD dollar and would see GBP/USD moving toward 1.62, however a drive may actually be seen back in the USD’s favour longer term as it will still always tend to benefit in times of uncertainty, this may also mean a sell off for some riskier currencies such as the Euro, AUD, NZD and ZAR and you may find some good buying opportunities for a number of these currencies.
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U.K GDP Figures lead to Sterling strength as predicted at the start of the week :) Pound up against EUR USD CAD AUD NZD CHF ZAR and more! (Daniel Wright)
The Pound has had a good surge in strength this morning as U.K GDP figures came out better than expected. We have seen exchange rates for Sterling rise against the majority of majors which is great news for those looking to buy foreign currency. Regular readers would have seen this prediction on Monday as shown here so hopefully this once again proves we do know what we are talking about and don’t waffle on pointlessly.
U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data came out at 1% growth for the economy during the third quarter of 2012, meaning that the U.K is now technically out of a recession and hopefully this should place the Pound back in investors good books at least for the short term.
Much of the boost will be thanks to the Olympics but I also think that we are doing things the right way and that the recovery albeit at a lot slower pace will continue to happen as long as we can avoid dropping back into negative territory in the last quarter of the year.
If you have a currency requirement and want to get the very best of expert knowledge on your side along with awards winning exchange rates when you do decide to take the plunge then feel free to contact me directly and I will personally get back in touch with you to discuss your needs, I can be emailed on email@example.com and I welcome you all to get in touch with me if you wish to.
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