Tag Archives: eurgbp
Pound strength following King Speech (Steve Eakins)
Today, which is probably the busiest day this week has already provided a few surprises. It was this morning confirmed that France has re-entered a recession creating euro weakness, UK Unemployment is improving and then currently the current Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, in his last speech seems to be talking the value of the Pound up. In summary GBPEUR rates have now risen from the 2 week low at the beginning of the day towards a near 4 month high we last visited 4 weeks ago.
So what next for GBPEUR exchange rates?
Near future – EURO buyers may want to hold off till tomorrow when we have the last big data release for GBPEUR this week when the Eurozone confirms their Consumer Confidence figures for April. The expectation is for this data to show a contraction so rates may climb further for GBPEUR following this news which is released at 10 am BST. Euro sellers may want to move before hand as a result.
Medium term – Next week we have UK Production Price Index, UK Retail figures, Bank of England minutes, UK GDP figures and UK Mortgage approvals. Expectations for these releases will be more concrete on Monday so keep reading here for the latest forecasts and updates on these releases. This should help highlight potential buy and sell opportunities when it may be the best time to trade through next week.
Longer term – A lot hinders on the new Bank of England Governor Mark Carney that starts his post at the end of June. He may want to come in with an instant impact changing interest rates or the current asset buying program. It may the beginning of July when we see this and is already expected to be an interesting event that may give direction to exchange rates for the following few months.
If you are in the currency market and are interested in a more personal view on how the above events could affect you, feel free to contact us on the normal number (01494 787 478) or myself personally, Steve Eakins via email at hse@currencies.co.uk
What will happen next week on sterling exchange rates?
An excellent run of form for sterling has seen us hit a 15 week high against the euro and 11 week highs against the US dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. Is this going to get much better or has this rally run out of steam?
I think that this rally has run out of steam but that does not mean rates are going to just crash back down. Sterling has been given a boost by the improved GDP stats (0.3% growth for Q1) which removes some of the more immediate concerns regarding sterling. In order for the pound to press on we need to see more positive data and next Thursday could be a trigger with Industrial and Manufacturing data plus the NIESR (National Institute of Economic & Social Research) estimate of GDP for April.
If you are considering moving sterling in the next few weeks next week could be fairly pivotal in shaping the future direction for sterling. It is important not just for sterling but due to the releases affecting other currencies. Here is a quick run through of a couple of things to beware of on rates next week.
EURO – Mario Draghi and the ECB (European Central Bank) are giving a couple of speeches next week including the ECB Monthly Report. There was a story today that the ECB were playing down speculation yesterday rates may be cut further. If any such bold statements are made I expect the Euro to strengthen, but not by much.. The Euro is in the firing line right now. If you are considering any GBPEUR or EURGBP transfers in the future please feel free to contact me for a forecast specific to your requirements. jmw@currencies.co.uk
USD – An improved employment outlook for the US today helped the USD to strengthen against sterling but unless the pound comes under pressure I expect GBPUSD to push higher. A speech next Friday by Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in the US, Ben Bernanke could be crucial.
AUSTRALIAN – The Reserve Bank of Australia meet for their monthly meeting next Monday evening where they decide on economic policy. The statement after their meeting may be more indicative of policy as no change is expected. Next week we also have Australian employment data which could move rates. On the whole I expect rates to remain good for buyers, sellers of AUD to buy GBP may wish to move sooner if they don’t see improvements.
Our service is designed to save people money on their currency exchanges. This is not just through offering better rates than the banks and other currency brokers, but by assisting with the actual timing of your exchange. Even if your transfer is just a one off we can help guide you through the process of moving money internationally at the very best rates.
Even if your transfer is not required for some time we can forward book rates for a small deposit. For more information on the services and to make a comparison or register an alert for certain trading levels, please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
Thank you
Buying euros, selling euros, best time to buy, best exchange rates (Steve Eakins)
Exchange rates continue to be range bound between 1.165-1.18 this week which may only seem like a small difference, however on a purchase of €200,000 timing the trade well reduces your costs by nearly £2,200. An amount equal to average monthly earnings in the UK before tax is deducted, bills are paid and the car is filled up. What I am trying to highlight is how important it is to buy currency effectively and to time your trade! Here we provide a pro-active service helping clients do just that. Either using the SPIKE NOTIFICATION or the RATE CATCHER service you could save too. Register for either service by emailing me at hse@currencies.co.uk
What next for exchange rates, which way are they heading?
I am still of the view that rates are more likely to fall rather than climb against the Euro, a contrast to Ben’s blog below. I think that even though the UK is improving we are still at near zero growth and only a cats whiskers from re-entering a recession. In comparison the Eurozone is growing at a faster rate and even though they are going through a process of economic review, which is raising some concerns, I believe that these concerns will be solved and euro strength will return. Cyprus have now confirmed they are selling some of their own gold reserves adding more confidence that the issues there are subsiding. Portugal and Ireland are currently negotiating an extension of their bailout to make their respective economies more healthy which can only be a good thing for Europe, right?
Tomorrow and over the weekend we also have the G8 meeting that will probably cover European debt concerns. My view is that the European states will probably again use it as a sales opportunity create some strength resulting falls early next week. Buyers may as a result want to move sooner rather than later or at least limit their exposure.
Here we achieve our clients a saving over that of their current providers, whether that be their own bank or another broker. Simply put if that was not the case we would not be in business so we are very confident we will be able to help you if you are in the markets.
Contact us today to see how much you could save, either call the normal number and ask for myself Steve Eakins or contact me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk
Best selling Euro rates may have been missed this year. (Ben Amrany)
The pound has nicely risen from lows against the USD & Euro over the last 2-3 weeks. Data here in the UK is slowing improving and the risk of a triple dip recession is slowly diminishing. This week alone factory output has increased from February and the NIESR GDP estimate showed that the UK economy grew by 0.1% in the 3 months up to March. Previously the economy in the UK had contracted by -0.1%. You may feel what is the difference between a plus 0.1% to a decline of 0.1% but it fills investors with confidence about the UK economy and hence we see sterling strength.
The main figure will be at the end of the month when we have the actual GDP estimate. This will be the release which could mean that sterling gathers momentum should we not be in a triple dip recession.
If you are looking at selling Euros to buy your sterling then you may be wise to look at converting sooner rather than later. The levels that we reached before the Cyprus event I feel are long gone. If you have a significant volume to exchange don’t get caught out trying to recover your losses as it may get worse 2-3 months down the line. I feel that their will be opportunities when sterling does weaken again but not down to levels pre- Cyprus. So you may be looking at a range bound of 2-3% one way or the other and being in a position to capitalise on a favourable movement could end up saving you thousands.
If you have a specific target level why not inform me at bma@currencies.co.uk so I can keep you updated should the right level occur. A limit order can be key to maximising your exchange.
I assist thousands of private and corporate clients with their money exchange and the rates can be up to 4% better than that of the high street banks. If you inform me of your timescale then we can look at all the options that are available to you to help you maximise this. With very little data out of the UK for the remainder of the week now may be a good time to look at getting things in place so if a rate occurs you can act.
Thank you for reading
Ben Amrany
Will the UK avoid a recession, pound sterling forecast, euro rate forecast, selling euros, buying euros (Steve Eakins)
This week GBPEUR rates have swung by over 1.5% meaning a well-timed trade could have saved you £2,500 on a €250,000 purchase. This swing was down to a change in risk appetite and yesterday’s speculation on Quantitative Easing both in the UK and the Eurozone, read more here.
Rates of exchange today will probably be driven from news coming state side as US non-Farm Payroll is released at 13:30 BST. This provides an update on the state of employment in the USA publishing the amount of new jobs that have been created, the markets are expecting a figure around 140,000. If this is confirmed I expect GBPEUR rates to climb as money is moved from Europe to the US making the euro cheaper to buy. This will probably result in the rates going up by around 0.5% (For a full explanation on what is driving your rate of exchange today please call +44 (0) 1494 787 478, or email me, Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk)
Next week eyes will be closely fixed on the UK with data being released on Tuesday afternoon probably the most influential. This is when the first estimates are released for UK Gross Domestic Product Q1 2013. The reason why this is so key is because if the figure is negative, representing a contraction in growth, the UK will technically be in a recession once more. This would make the UK the first in the Eurozone to have fallen into a Triple Dip Recession, which as you can probably imagine will be seen as negative resulting in heavily losses for the pound. I would expect to see losses upwards of 2 cents adding perhaps as much as £2,300 on a €150,000 purchase so this is something anyone with a currency need should be very wary of.
The strategic options you have can be summarised into three options;
- Buy beforehand to avoid the risk,
- Limit your exposure by splitting your trade and buy some before and after,
- Roll the dice and trade after the release.
My view is that the UK will have probably avoided a recession but don’t assume that if that is confirmed rates will climb significantly, in that situation rates will probably stay steady or only gain by a small degree perhaps 0.5% at most. As a result the expectations on the FX market is for rates to either climb a little or drop a lot. This makes it an easy decision for Euro Sellers but for buyers of the single currency it is perhaps a more difficult decision to make. Buyers may like to be reminded that we are currently buying at a near 2 month high.
How do I get the best price?
Those who like a flutter not just on the grand national this weekend may be looking at trading over the event, if this is you will probably want to exploit our SPIKE NOTIFICATION service. We simply contact you with breaking news allowing you to make an educated decision on when to buy straight away, this can be hugely valuable as rates will often yo-yo after events with the highest point being straight after, (for more information on this service simply get in contact.)
If perhaps you have a target rate that you are trying to achieve a RATE ALERT might be best. To register for each simply email me Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk with your details.
In either case we here offer an award winning service providing a proactive service helping you time your trade while giving you access to award winning exchange rates. If you have found this blog useful feel free to contact us for a quotation on your exchange to see how much you could save. It could be very well spent 10 minutes! Please call +44 (0) 1494 787 478, or email me, Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk
GBPEUR, GBPUSD rates wary of the first 2013 GDP figures today that could move rates dramatically (Steve Eakins)
Sterling rates have held steady over the last 24 hours near a 18 month low for GBPEUR and 2½ year low for GBPUSD however data today could drive markets could change this dramatically. In fact one piece of data today could drive rates for the next few weeks, it is a key day for anyone with a currency exchange to make. To start the day we have releases from Germany, France and Italy which will drive the euro price followed by UK news at 9:30. The UK news at 9:30 will give us information about the productivity of both the Industry Sector and the Manufacturing Sectors of the domestic economy. Expectations are for a fall to be seen so don’t be surprised if we see the Pound fall against all major currencies in early trading today.
The biggest news however will be from the UK mid-afternoon. At 3PM GMT the National Institute of Economic and Social Research release their forecasts for the Gross Domestic Figures for the UK Economy through this quarter. Importantly Q4 figures for 2012 saw a contraction so if we see another quarter of negative growth the UK will technically be in a RECESSION, again, for the third time. Adding to the recent loss of the UK AAA credit rating, unemployment figures still climbing and calls for a change to the austerity plan in Government there is a lot of unknowing and worry about the state of the UK economy. Recently this has also been seen in another way as the price of our borrowing costs which are all going up, (bond markets.) Government Debt management, so the interest we pay on debts, is expected to be the third largest expense for the government next year. Bigger than Education and the armed forces combined so something to be really worried about.
Why is this important to your currency move? Well this gets reflected in the strength of Sterling so is why rates have been tumbling this year and are expected to fall going forward. (GBPEUR rates are down 7.5% and GBPUSD down 8% since the start of the year.)
So when do I buy my currency?
Well the bad news is that due to the comments above the general expectation is for rates to continue to fall this coming few months, so buying currency or limiting your exposure sooner rather than later might be wise.
The good news is that exchange rates do not move in a straight line so there will be better opportunities for the quick moving clients. Here this is a service that we provide every hour of every day. Informing our client base of SPIKES in the market so a saving can be found. We put strategies together for our clients helping them try and time their respective transfers and this is something we can offer to you. With a host of economic data due this week (the busy days are today and Friday,) I would expect another SPIKE in the near future. If this is of interest to you and you would like to have access to this kind of information feel free to contact us either on the normal number or with me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk.
You can also register your interest for SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS by emailing us details of your situation including; name, contact number, currency pair, volume and timeframe to hse@currencies.co.uk
Look forward to hearing from you.
GBPEUR rates falling again (Steve Eakins)
At the end of last week we notified our clients that the markets had moved up and that it was following the pattern of a traditional Spike. A Spike in the market is when some surprising information is released which moves the markets quickly and by a large amount. In fact the opportunity to buy euros at that better price was also available this morning. Unfortunately this has now ended and the rates have started to fall meaning anyone with euros to buy have missed out buy euro sellers are gaining. This spike was also present on the GBPUSD currency pairing referred to as the “CABLE price”, this has unfortunately also followed suit and is on the way down once again. GBPEUR rates are at 1.1725 and GBPUSD at 1.5690.
These spikes do not happen often and when they do it is only the clients with funds available that can normally take advantage. I am of the thought that there will be other spikes through the month of February due to key data being released from the UK with regards to the potential of the UK economy falling into a recession. So if you need to move currency internationally register for SPIKE notifications via email at hse@currencies.co.uk
What now for currency rates?
The UK release a large amount of data tomorrow morning which will probably make it the business day of the week for anyone with pound exposure. We have Retail figures, Productivity figures, Consumer Price index plus a Quarterly Inflation letter. In all there are 14 reports being released within a 30 minute timeframe. So if you have a need make sure you are ready to go. I personally expect a volatile 72 hours for GBPUSD and GBPEUR pairings especially after currency tickers are new in after the spike at the end of last week.
Here we provide a pro-active service putting strategies in place for clients. They also have full access to the tools available here to limit their exposure PLUS access to the award winning exchange rates on offer. Simply put if we could not save you money we would not be in business. So if you need to move funds contact us today, for free, for a chat about the savings that are on offer. Call on 0044(0)1494 787 478 or email hse@curerncies.co.uk my name is Steve Eakins.
GBPEUR Rates start to steady but where next? EURO FORECAST (Steve Eakins)
GBPEUR rates have been steady over the last 2 trading sessions as poor data from the UK and concerns about European politics counter balance each other keeping rates around the 1.1550 limit. We also have speculation or a gamble from the market being played out on the possibility that the European Central Bank policy makers could be concerned a stronger currency will slow their economic recovery. Even the French President Francois Hollande warned that a rising currency may deepen the recession. I personally have the view that they will not mind. Compared to the general concerns about Europe lasting as a single state for a majority of the second half of 2012 the current picture is much improved. It is also worth noting that the GBPEUR exchange rates are actually not far from the average level that they have been trading at since the end of the crisis so I think any commentary about them potentially lowering interest rates are unfounded.
We will however find this out on Thursday when both Europe and the UK release their respective interest rate decision for the month of February. The market is expecting no change on interest rates but there is an outside chance of more QE in the UK being announced that could weaken sterling against all currencies very quickly. Following the release in Europe there is a press conference that the president of the European Bank normally uses to sell the Euro so either way I expect the euro to potentially strengthen as a result.
At the end of the week there is also the next The European Council meeting starting on Friday. This has the potential to surprise us as they talk around the topic of a recovery across Europe. This on top of political scandal in Spain and the coming Italian election means there is a fair amount of information coming out over the coming weeks that should create opportunities for buyers and sellers. If you have a currency exposure them these are the topics to be aware of. If you would like to register for updates please email hse@currencies.co.uk with a summary of the situation you are in and your contact details to be kept up to speed on developments.
Here we provide a pro-active service helping clients all day, every day. There are two big benefits our clients see; firstly the award winning exchange rates on offer through our service (simply put if this was not the case we would not be in business), secondly a pro-active service helping to create a strategy for your situation allowing you to time your trade when markets are up rather than down. So if you are using these blogs as an information base to make your decision without checking our rates you are simply missing out! Get in contact today using the normal number or emailing hse@currencies.co.uk
Thank you,
Steve Eakins
Elite Trader
Hse@currencies.co.uk
