Tag Archives: eurgbp
Oh brilliant in the midst of one of the UK’s worst political crisis ever the Tories are seeking to open another old wound – Grammar Schools. As a product of a Grammar School I would not be in any way against them, but surely a key priority right now is the Brexit plans? 7 and a half weeks since the vote is probably too early to start expecting a solution to an issue that will surely take years to deliver but will someone please provide some direction and leadership in this affair? Personally I would be advocating a so-called hard Brexit, wouldn’t it be a shame if the UK ended up like Norway? With a basically worse version of what we already have! Personally I would favour a reformed Free Movement of People principle but still seek access to the Single Market. Surely the politicians can see this? Some say it would lead France and Italy to seek Frexit or Italexit – (did I just coin a phrase?!) but can’t the EU leaders see they need to change tact to keep the EU together? Politics is an important factor on sterling exchange rates and any big developments here will have a big impact on the pound. Whilst having a new PM is great and I do support Theresa May in as much as I believe she is one of the best candidates to lead the UK at this time, the likelihood of further political uncertainty from the Brexit is very high. It will probably get worse before it gets better!
The big economic news this week is the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) has an estimate on GDP (Gross Domestic Product) tomorrow. The NIESR estimate is a rolling 3 month estimate that reviews the last 3 calendar months which will include July’s data. Since we won’t get any views on July’s GDP from the official supplier of GDP data – the ONS (Office National Statistics) until October, tomorrow’s news is key to understanding the impact of post Brexit vote Britain on UK GDP, the holy grail of economics. We also have a raft of other data including Trade Balance data plus Industrial and Manufacturing data tomorrow but as this data is for June it won’t provide as much insight on the economy as the NIESR data. With the PMI survey’s showing big falls and all the fresh data showing less hiring, less growth and less confidence you would have to say it will probably get worse before it gets better.
There isn’t much else to celebrate this week economically for the pound and with the Bank of England confirming another rate cut is likely in the next month it seems likely the pound will fall further. We have a statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speech on Tuesday night, then the New Zealand Interest Rate decision Wednesday night and Eurozone GDP on Friday. So there you have it folks a fairly busy week, I think the UK GDP is the highlight and something I will be closely watching. Have you ever wondered if there was a better way of doing something? if it would be possible to get a slightly better exchange rate than you are currently achieving? Or wished you could talk to someone knowledgeable who treats you like a human being and explain the foreign exchange market clearly and concisely? My name is Jonathan Watson and I am the author of this post and have worked as a foreign exchange broker for close to ten years helping literally thousands of clients both private and business to make informed choices at the very best exchange rates. I have been quoted in national newspapers and even appeared on the BBC discussing the EU Referendum earlier this year. If you have a transfer to consider I would be most interested to hear from you and offer further information to help you get a better deal, please email firstname.lastname@example.org or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to me Jonathan Watson. Please note I can only help with bank to bank transfers from £10,000 to the multi millions and do not deal in holiday cash. You can also fill in the form below.
The pound has sunk to fresh lows this week in response to uncertainty over the Brexit impact and fears the Bank of England will embark on fresh Interest Rate cuts and even Quantitative Easing in the coming weeks and months. The potential for the pound to slip by a further 4-5% should not be underestimated. I would be very surprised to hear if anyone would be calling the recent lows we have reached a bottom, particularly if we see the movements the markets have been expecting.
The biggest problem in the last few years is low interest rates globally, could the Bank of England be in to cause some shock and awe on financial markets. These events should not be personal but with Mark Carney being singled out by the Leave camp for being too noisy about the potential downsides for the UK economy, he might surely now have a bit of an axe to grind. Of course it would be crazy to suggest the Governor of the Bank of England would act without firm reasons but he must have been annoyed at the suggestions he was interfering with the Referendum.
If you have a transfer to consider making some firm plans in advance is vital in this market. Sterling slipped down to almost parity with the Euro when the Bank of England last cut interest rates. If you need to buy or sell pounds it is vital you understand the full implications of what is happening at present. For more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan on email@example.com.
Sterling has in my opinion got further to fall so please speak to me about getting some helpful information and an exchange rate I am sure will save you money.
The impact of Brexit is clearly evident on the currency market. Sterling is it the lowest levels since ’85 against the Dollar and the Euro is battering at the 1.20 resistance barrier. The resignation of David Cameron also does not bode well. In times of political uncertainty the currency in question usually weakens. The next Prime minister is due to be elected on 2nd September and whoever is voted in will have the task of bringing the UK’s economy back to a position of stability. I feel Sterling could be in for a rough time short term and I doubt to see many positive data releases over the coming weeks to assist in a rally for the Pound. I think once the Bank of England have made there stance clear, a Prime minister is in place and the markets have settled the Pound will gain strength.
If you are currently buying Sterling you are in an extremely favorable position. With the majority of major currencies at record highs against the Pound. Although there could be further falls for Sterling it is important to keep in mind the factors that could affect the value of the currency you are selling. For example the Euro is in trouble, Greece have stated they will be unable to make there next payment to the International Monetary Fund, France are threatening a referendum of their own and Draghi is still pumping in €80bn a month in an attempt to stimulate growth. If you are selling Euros I would not procrastinate.
Looking at USD, an election looms and as mentioned earlier political uncertainty, generally causes the currency in question to weaken. The Head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen had indicated at the start of the year there would be several rate hikes in the US this year, none of which has materialised.
Australia is currently going through a general election which is currently very close. So we could see a fall in AUD value. China whom Australia rely on heavily for their exports are also not looking stable. There has been recent stock market crashes, where circuit breakers have been used to cease trading to stop panic selling and the rumors of shadow banking and distorted data figures will not go away.
If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you let me know the currency pair you will be trading, volume and time scale I will provide an individual trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country which puts me in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. Feel free to contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org. Thank you for reading my blog.
It’s almost like the results of the Referendum have already come to light. Investors are piling into the Pound, the bookmakers have upped their odds again of a Remain and the polls yet again, put Remain in the lead.
As it stands, these factors in my opinion, scream BUY Sterling now!
It’s been said again and again that the Pound will soar in the event of a Remain, and this is likely to ring true based on the market movements, confidence in a Remain vote is good for Sterling.
Do you have Euros to sell for Sterling? Current exchange rates of 0.76 are still attractive given that a remain vote could push the currency pair into the lower 0.70’s, rates not seen since the end of last year. The same could be said for US Dollar sellers, levels of mid 0.60’s could be tested in the event of a Remain possibly lower, given the FED’s latest reports on slower US economic growth, pushing hopes of a FED hike back further. These levels again, have not been seen since prior to the new year.
This morning we have witnessed market movements of more than half a cent in favour of GBP, USDGBP has fallen 0.7 cents in the space of 4 hours whilst EURGBP fell half a cent between 10am and 10:30am. Confidence in a Remain is still gaining momentum so in the event you have a requirement for Sterling, email email@example.com sooner rather than later.
Yesterday Sterling should have had a better day than it did. Unemployment data for the UK was released in the morning and showed another improvement of the levels of employment across the UK. Over 2,000 jobs were created last month meaning we have the best levels of employment since records began in the 1970’s. This gave Sterling a boost in early trading but the concerns around the Brexit continued to push down rates for the Pound.
This negative movement for the UK also came I think from the fact that the largest paper in the UK, The Sun, official joined the ‘Leave’ campaign. It seems that the population of the UK seems to have been more driven by the papers alignments over that of business leaders, politicians, leading scientists and global leaders – A interesting point of view.
Last nights FED interest decision has resulting in yet further falls for the GBPEUR pairing as widely expected. They left interest rates unchanged which was not surprising following their poor jobless figures last week but they went on to blame the low levels of production is the US domestic market and the uncertainty about the BREXIT on their decision. It now seems unlikely that rates will be hiked until the end of the year now, however Janet Yellen is still adamant that we will see two.
This decision resulted in traders selling the USD and buying the EURO and it is this additional demand for the euro which pushed up its value making it more expensive to buy.
Moving forward, today’s event is the Bank of England update. Again no change in policy is expected however any commentary from the BOE on policies they could implement if the ‘Leave’ campaign were to win. In this event expect further Sterling weakness.
The vote is now only a week away and there seems an increasing amount of negativity about the event, sterling’s value is highly likely to follow suit and continue to remain under pressure up until the event itself. If you are looking at buying Euros or any other currency with the Pound, now is the time to review if you have not already. Do you think we will remain – try and hold your nerve. If you think we will leave – rates will more than likely only go one way on this result, look at hedging your position before the event.
To discuss in more detail please contact Steve Eakins via email with your situation and contact details for a full breifing on your options, email firstname.lastname@example.org