Tag Archives: eurgbp

The ‘Trump Train’ market surge fades but Sterling manages to hold on to it’s gains, but for how long? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has surged across the board through November for a number of reasons, with the main catalysts being the likely delay to invoking Article 50 and beginning the Brexit process, and Trumps election victory in the US boosting sentiment surrounding the UK economy.

Those planning on converting Pounds into another foreign currency have been dealt a good hand this month, as the Pound has gained clawed back quite alot of it’s losses since the Brexit vote.

This month alone the Pound has gained 5 cents vs the US Dollar and 7 cents vs the Euro. In monetary terms a £200,000 GBP to EUR currency exchange is now gaining an additional €15,000+ in the space of 30 days which just highlights the importance of timing large currency conversions.

As a specialist currency brokerage we’re here to monitor the currency markets on behalf of our clients, and in volatile trading conditions like we’ve seen this month our service can really save clients large amounts of money due to the assistance with timings and reacting to market movements.

There will be manufacturing and construction figures released later this week which could affect GBP exchange rates depending on their outcome, and if you are planning a currency exchange between the Pound and another major currency and would like to plan around these events, do get in touch regarding timings and exchange rates.

The Pound has so far held onto it’s gains made this month, but currencies do tend to fall quicker than they climb and if some ‘Hard Brexit’ related news is released there is a chance the Pound could lose some or even all of it’s recent gains.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. 

You can also call in and ask reception to speak with me (Joe) on 01494 787 478. 

Will Sterling lose its recent gains or continue to climb? (Joseph Wright)

After performing well against the major currencies for the past week or so, the Pound has dropped sharply this morning wiping away much of the currencies recent gains.

After trading close to 1.17 against the Euro for the first time in months, the GBP/EUR pair have tested the late 1.14’s within the past 20 minutes and cable (GBPUSD) has also lost a cent this morning.

Sterling has recently gained a lot of value after Donald Trump’s successful presidential campaign in the US. The property tycoon has commercial ties within the UK, was pro-brexit and his mother was Scottish. His success in the presidential election has so far boded very well for the Pound as the currency recently has one of it’s best week’s against the US Dollar since October 2009, and the High Courts decision to rule in favour on whether parliament must be consulted before invoking Article 50 has also boosted the Pounds value.

The UK Prime Minister, Theresa May has appealed the High Court’s ruling and I think whether or not she’s successful will have a large bearing on how the Pound performs, as the Pound is likely to fall once again if Theresa May is successful just like it did when she initially outlined her plans of invoking Article 50 at the beginning of next year.

There’s a chance that the Pound could drop back to levels seen prior to the High Court Ruling and Trumps victory, and if so then now is the time to take advantage of what’s left of the Pounds recent gains.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Sterling likely to continue to find support at its post-brexit lows, but stay vigilant (Joseph Wright)

We’ve had another week of trading with relatively thin ranges for Sterling exchange rates as economic news out of the UK has been thin, and the UK economy has remained out of the headlines for the first time in a while as issues elsewhere have dominated the headlines.

Seeing Sterling trade within a cent’s difference between the days highs and lows is currently the norm, although we are witnessing the Pound gradually decline back down to the 52 week lows which in most cases are also 3 to 5 year lows also (or 31 years in the case of the US Dollar).

Moving forward I’m expecting to see the Pound find support at these levels, with those of note being GBP/EUR (1.1456), GBP/USD (1.2777) and GBP/AUD (1.6712).

Those that have been following the currency markets will be aware that we’re currently very close to those 52 week lows, and whether they’re breached or not will offer us an indication of what’s likely to unfold in future.

It’s worth noting that economic data out of the UK hasn’t been disappointing recently, and an example of that was this mornings better than expected GDP Figures for the previous quarter. The expectation was for an increase of 0.6% whereas the figure actually came out at 0.7%. This boosted the Pound’s value briefly but that upward spike then fizzled out which can most likely be put down to profit taking by day traders.

It’s these short term patterns which lead me to believe the Pound will struggle as despite relatively good fundamentals the Pound is still gradually declining back to its lows.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Will the pound continue to fall?

Sterling has been on the back foot ever since the Referendum and the big question is will this continue? Well in short I think the answer is yes! Quite frankly there is bound to be lots more bad news relating to this scenario, it has not even been two months since the Brexit vote and we are haven’t even begun to scratch the surface of what lies ahead. Markets do not like uncertainty and at present there is plenty of uncertainty as to what will happen to the UK both economically and politically. The economy is on the back foot with slides in growth, employment and business activity. All in all I would not be surprised to see the pound fall further touching fresh lows against all the major currencies. These include the US Dollar, the Euro, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar. If you have a transfer involving the pound and these currencies preparing for further falls in the value of the pound seems the most sensible option.

Last week we heard news Theresa May might not invoke Article 50 until much later than planned, as explained above we are nowhere near knowing any firm details of what Brexit actually is and what it entails. It will lead to many months and years of waiting to understand exactly what is going between the relationship between the UK and its biggest trading partner. As long as this uncertainty continues business and the public will be loathe to make any big financial decisions which will lead to the slowdown in the economy and rising Unemployment.

If you have to buy the pound now is a fantastic time to be considering all of your options and making some plans on the future. The market is likely to offer better deals for buying pounds which anyone with a currency transfer to consider should be taking on board. If you wish to learn more please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. This blog has helped thousands of people to save thousands of pounds through better information and a much better exchange rate than they thought possible. To learn more please email me or fill in the form – you have nothing to lose and lots to gain!

The pound – it will probably get worse before it gets better…

Oh brilliant in the midst of one of the UK’s worst political crisis ever the Tories are seeking to open another old wound – Grammar Schools. As a product of a Grammar School I would not be in any way against them, but surely a key priority right now is the Brexit plans? 7 and a half weeks since the vote is probably too early to start expecting a solution to an issue that will surely take years to deliver but will someone please provide some direction and leadership in this affair? Personally I would be advocating a so-called hard Brexit, wouldn’t it be a shame if the UK ended up like Norway? With a basically worse version of what we already have! Personally I would favour a reformed Free Movement of People principle but still seek access to the Single Market. Surely the politicians can see this? Some say it would lead France and Italy to seek Frexit or Italexit – (did I just coin a phrase?!) but can’t the EU leaders see they need to change tact to keep the EU together? Politics is an important factor on sterling exchange rates and any big developments here will have a big impact on the pound. Whilst having a new PM is great and I do support Theresa May in as much as I believe she is one of the best candidates to lead the UK at this time, the likelihood of further political uncertainty from the Brexit is very high. It will probably get worse before it gets better!

The big economic news this week is the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) has an estimate on GDP (Gross Domestic Product) tomorrow. The NIESR estimate is a rolling 3 month estimate that reviews the last 3 calendar months which will include July’s data. Since we won’t get any views on July’s GDP from the official supplier of GDP data – the ONS (Office National Statistics) until October, tomorrow’s news is key to understanding the impact of post Brexit vote Britain on UK GDP, the holy grail of economics. We also have a raft of other data including Trade Balance data plus Industrial and Manufacturing data tomorrow but as this data is for June it won’t provide as much insight on the economy as the NIESR data. With the PMI survey’s showing big falls and all the fresh data showing less hiring, less growth and less confidence you would have to say it will probably get worse before it gets better.

There isn’t much else to celebrate this week economically for the pound and with the Bank of England confirming another rate cut is likely in the next month it seems likely the pound will fall further. We have a statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speech on Tuesday night, then the New Zealand Interest Rate decision Wednesday night and Eurozone GDP on Friday. So there you have it folks a fairly busy week, I think the UK GDP is the highlight and something I will be closely watching. Have you ever wondered if there was a better way of doing something? if it would be possible to get a slightly better exchange rate than you are currently achieving? Or wished you could talk to someone knowledgeable who treats you like a human being and explain the foreign exchange market clearly and concisely? My name is Jonathan Watson and I am the author of this post and have worked as a foreign exchange broker for close to ten years helping literally thousands of clients both private and business to make informed choices at the very best exchange rates. I have been quoted in national newspapers and even appeared on the BBC discussing the EU Referendum earlier this year. If you have a transfer to consider I would be most interested to hear from you and offer further information to help you get a better deal, please email jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to me Jonathan Watson. Please note I can only help with bank to bank transfers from £10,000 to the multi millions and do not deal in holiday cash. You can also fill in the form below.

Pound sterling exchange rates may well get much worse!

The pound has sunk to fresh lows this week in response to uncertainty over the Brexit impact and fears the Bank of England will embark on fresh Interest Rate cuts and even Quantitative Easing in the coming weeks and months. The potential for the pound to slip by a further 4-5% should not be underestimated. I would be very surprised to hear if anyone would be calling the recent lows we have reached a bottom, particularly if we see the movements the markets have been expecting.

The biggest problem in the last few years is low interest rates globally, could the Bank of England be in to cause some shock and awe on financial markets. These events should not be personal but with Mark Carney being singled out by the Leave camp for being too noisy about the potential downsides for the UK economy, he might surely now have a bit of an axe to grind. Of course it would be crazy to suggest the Governor of the Bank of England would act without firm reasons but he must have been annoyed at the suggestions he was interfering with the Referendum.

If you have a transfer to consider making some firm plans in advance is vital in this market. Sterling slipped down to almost parity with the Euro when the Bank of England last cut interest rates. If you need to buy or sell pounds it is vital you understand the full implications of what is happening at present. For more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Sterling has in my opinion got further to fall so please speak to me about getting some helpful information and an exchange rate I am sure will save you money.

The Brexit Fallout (Daniel Charles Johnson)

The impact of Brexit is clearly evident on the currency market. Sterling is it the lowest levels since ’85 against the Dollar and the Euro is battering at the 1.20 resistance barrier. The resignation of David Cameron also does not bode well. In times of political uncertainty the currency in question usually weakens. The next Prime minister is due to be elected on 2nd September and whoever is voted in will have the task of bringing the UK’s economy back to a position of stability. I feel Sterling could be in for a rough time short term and I doubt to see many positive data releases over the coming weeks to assist in a rally for the Pound. I think once the Bank of England have made there stance clear, a Prime minister  is in place and the markets have settled the Pound will gain strength.

If you are currently buying Sterling you are in an extremely favorable position. With the majority of major currencies at record highs against the Pound. Although there could be further falls for Sterling it is important to keep in mind the factors that could affect the value of the currency  you are selling. For example the Euro is in trouble, Greece have stated they will be unable to make there next payment to the International Monetary Fund, France are threatening a referendum of their own and Draghi is still pumping in €80bn a month in an attempt to stimulate growth. If you are selling Euros I would not procrastinate.

Looking at USD, an election looms and as mentioned earlier political uncertainty, generally  causes the currency in question to weaken. The Head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen had indicated at the start of the year there would be several rate hikes in the US this year, none of which has materialised.

Australia is currently going through a general election which is currently very close. So we could see a fall in AUD value. China whom Australia rely on heavily for their exports are also not looking stable. There has been recent stock market crashes, where circuit breakers have been used to cease trading to stop panic selling and the rumors of shadow banking and distorted data figures will not go away.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you let me know the currency pair you will be trading, volume and time scale I will provide an individual trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country which puts me in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. Feel free to contact me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

Buy Pound Sterling now before it becomes more expensive

It’s almost like the results of the Referendum have already come to light. Investors are piling into the Pound, the bookmakers have upped their odds again of a Remain and the polls yet again, put Remain in the lead.

As it stands, these factors in my opinion, scream BUY Sterling now!

It’s been said again and again that the Pound will soar in the event of a Remain, and this is likely to ring true based on the market movements, confidence in a Remain vote is good for Sterling.

Do you have Euros to sell for Sterling? Current exchange rates of 0.76 are still attractive given that a remain vote could push the currency pair into the lower 0.70’s, rates not seen since the end of last year. The same could be said for US Dollar sellers, levels of mid 0.60’s could be tested in the event of a Remain possibly lower, given the FED’s latest reports on slower US economic growth, pushing hopes of a FED hike back further. These levels again, have not been seen since prior to the new year.

UPDATE 12:30pm
This morning we have witnessed market movements of more than half a cent in favour of GBP, USDGBP has fallen 0.7 cents in the space of 4 hours whilst EURGBP fell half a cent between 10am and 10:30am. Confidence in a Remain is still gaining momentum so in the event you have a requirement for Sterling, email rdl@currencies.co.uk sooner rather than later.

Sterling exchange rates have continued to fall

Yesterday Sterling should have had a better day than it did. Unemployment data for the UK was released in the morning and showed another improvement of the levels of employment across the UK.  Over 2,000 jobs were created last month meaning we have the best levels of employment since records began in the 1970’s. This gave Sterling a boost in early trading but the concerns around the Brexit continued to push down rates for the Pound.

This negative movement for the UK also came I think from the fact that the largest paper in the UK, The Sun, official joined the ‘Leave’ campaign.  It seems that the population of the UK seems to have been more driven by the papers alignments over that of business leaders, politicians, leading scientists and global leaders – A interesting point of view.

Last nights FED interest decision has resulting in yet further falls for the GBPEUR pairing as widely expected. They left interest rates unchanged which was not surprising following their poor jobless figures last week but they went on to blame the low levels of production is the US domestic market and the uncertainty about the BREXIT on their decision. It now seems unlikely that rates will be hiked until the end of the year now, however Janet Yellen is still adamant that we will see two.

This decision resulted in traders selling the USD and buying the EURO and it is this additional demand for the euro which pushed up its value making it more expensive to buy.

Moving forward, today’s event is the Bank of England update.  Again no change in policy is expected however any commentary from the BOE on policies they could implement if the ‘Leave’ campaign were to win. In this event expect further Sterling weakness.

The vote is now only a week away and there seems an increasing amount of negativity about the event, sterling’s value is highly likely to follow suit and continue to remain under pressure up until the event itself.  If you are looking at buying Euros or any other currency with the Pound, now is the time to review if you have not already.  Do you think we will remain – try and hold your nerve. If you think we will leave – rates will more than likely only go one way on this result, look at hedging your position before the event.

To discuss in more detail please contact Steve Eakins via email with your situation and contact details for a full breifing on your options, email hse@currencies.co.uk

“Brexit”. The Key Factor in any Trade involving Sterling (Daniel Johnson)

The EU referendum has caused the Pound to significantly weaken against all major currencies. I think we are starting to see below par UK data releases as a result which will  cause resistance on a Sterling rally. Polls  currently suggest it is almost 50/50 whether the UK will remain in the EU or leave.

I expect GBP/EUR to remain between 1.24-1.29 until after the referendum. If the UK remain in, expect to see 1.35. If we leave however I would expect GBP/EUR to drop to below 1.15. If you have a GBP/EUR trade it may be wise to hedge your bets to limit potential losses. Feel free to get in touch with regards to strategy and contract options.

Key UK Data Releases

Tomorrow at 08.30 will see the release of PPI and CPI data, I expect CPI to cause more movement  on GBP value than PPI. It is a measure of inflation and and can be used as barometer as to the health of an economy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight decline which could weaken the Pound.  Thursday at 08.30 is the release of retail sales and I would expect to see a further decline. If you have to move short term it may be wise to move before these events.

GBP/AUD The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have made their intentions clear, to weaken AUD to encourage growth. We have already seen an interest drop which has bolstered Sterling position. If the UK remain in the EU expect GBP/AUD to move above 2.10. If you are an Aussie seller I would be looking to move before the referendum as I think the current trend will continue and it is too big a gamble to hang on until after the referendum Current trading levels are attractive considering six months ago GBP/AUD was at 2.20 +.  China is the key purchaser of Australian exports  and Chinese Industrial and Retail figures came in over the weekend and were below expectation levels. This will add further ammunition to the belief AUD needs to lose value. Keep an eye on the the RBA minutes on Tuesday to get a further insight on monetary policy.

GBP/USD

If I was a USD seller I would be looking to take advantage of current rates of exchange. GBP/USD currently sits at 1.43. Keep in mind GBP/USD has only fallen below 1.40 three times in the last forty years so 1.43, historically, is a very good time to move.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to help. I specialise in property and commercial trading and I am in a position to beat high street banks exchange rates by as much as 5%. Feel free to contact me for  a no obligation quote on 01494 787478 and ask for Daniel Johnson or e-mail me at dcj@currecnies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.