Tag Archives: Euro exchange rates

Will sterling rise or fall on the Supreme Court decision?

The pound is fairly stable and range bound at present as markets keenly await the next direction of the Brexit. We are all eagerly awaiting the next bits of news over the Supreme Court decision and it is this which will determine the more immediate direction on the currency pairing. If you have a transfer to consider involving sterling understanding what is happening and being ready to react is the best way to capitalise on this news. At the moment we do not know when the decision will be released and this is keeping the market nervously on its toes.

Essentially upholding the previous High Court decision should see the pound rally but I think the gains will be limited. My personal expectation is for this to lead to sterling gaining up to 2% against its counterparts. If the decision goes for the government sterling will fall because I believe markets have very much priced in ‘good news’ that the previous decision would be upheld. If it falls in this scenario sterling could lose up to 4% as it becomes apparent a hard Brexit is more likely again. Sterling might retest the kind of levels we saw back in October last year.

GBPEUR Focus

After the Supreme Court decision attention will still remain on the Brexit and any good news for sterling will be shortlived in my opinion. There will still be many unanswered questions and as the resignation of Sir Ivan rogers, the UK’s Ambassador to the EU shows there is scope for further political casualties. Attention towards the end of the quarter will focus on the likelihood of Theresa May triggering Article 50 plus the Dutch and French elections. I expect GBPEUR could trade between 1.12 – 1.23 depending on the various outcomes here. If you wish to trade at these levels and wish to be kept informed of developments please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPUSD Focus

The big news on the US dollar is the likelihood of further interest rate rises. A strong jobs report has given rise to expectation we could see further interest rate hikes soon and GBPUSD has dipped. I expect GBPUSD to trade between 1.14 and 1.25 in the coming weeks. As you can see I feel the US dollar will be strengthening.

If you have a currency transfer involving sterling and wish to optimise your position with some expert insight and information please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I work as a currency specialist and have appeared on BBC News discussing Brexit and the impact on the currency markets. I would be very happy to hear from you and answer any questions and help you with your situation.

Thank you for reading, I hope to hear from you soon.

Sterling gains on positive UK trade data, will the bullish trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The latest set of UK economic data surprised investors today and as a result, the Pound has received a welcome boost across the board.

After a very good November the Pound fell off it’s highs against both the Euro and the US Dollar earlier this week, but the currency is regaining some of it’s lost value and approaching those highs once again which the GBP/EUR pair approaching 1.20 once again.

The Pound has recovered particularly well versus the Euro after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced yesterday that it will be extending its bond purchasing program as a form of quantitative easing.

The Pound gained off the back of this news mostly due to Euro weakness but today those gains have been boosted further. UK Trade is looking a lot healthier after data released today showed October’s visible trade balance dropped to -£9.7bn when many had expected to see it drop from -£13.8bn down to -£11.8bn.

This reduction is of course good news for the UK, and trade balance figures are often discussed in financial media after earlier this year it was announced that the pound had the highest deficit within the developed world.

Now that GBP/USD is trading above 1.25 and GBP/EUR is closing in on 1.20 once again it appears that the Pound is looking healthy around these levels after gaining a lot of ground in a short period of time.

If you’re planning on taking advantage of the recent gains by Sterling by converting the currency into another major currency, feel free to get in contact to discuss  exchange rates and timings.

You can contact me directly jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Will the pound rise higher or fall before the end of 2016?

The pound has entered a fresh period of buoyancy finding favour against all currencies in November. October was a month of tremendous uncertainty but sterling has now recovered and this is presenting some very good news opportunities to buy a foreign currency. December is already looking extremely interesting with some very important events in the Eurozone and the United States which you can read more about in my post from this morning here. Otherwise let us have a look at some of the key decisions which will shape sterling exchange rates for the end of 2016.

The Supreme Court decision is one of the biggest factors for the pound in my opinion since it highlights the path to Brexit. The decision as to whether or not the UK will have to seek parliamentary approval to trigger Article 50 is of major consequence to the pound. If the Supreme Court rule Parliament does then we will surely see sterling rise since it makes the ‘hard’ Brexit Theresa May is apparently pursuing less likely. Parliamentary approval will undoubtedly hinge on severe watering down of the terms and even raises the possibility Brexit may not happen. The court decision may not be known until January but the story will be big news for December and early January.

If you are planning a currency exchange involving sterling I would be making plans around this information, it looks likely the vote will be upheld so sterling could rise further. If you need to buy or sell the pound then making some plans sooner rather than later is best to avoid the uncertainty this event presents to financial markets. For more information on this event and how to take advantage please speak to me Jonathan by calling 01494 787 478 or emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will Sterling lose its recent gains or continue to climb? (Joseph Wright)

After performing well against the major currencies for the past week or so, the Pound has dropped sharply this morning wiping away much of the currencies recent gains.

After trading close to 1.17 against the Euro for the first time in months, the GBP/EUR pair have tested the late 1.14’s within the past 20 minutes and cable (GBPUSD) has also lost a cent this morning.

Sterling has recently gained a lot of value after Donald Trump’s successful presidential campaign in the US. The property tycoon has commercial ties within the UK, was pro-brexit and his mother was Scottish. His success in the presidential election has so far boded very well for the Pound as the currency recently has one of it’s best week’s against the US Dollar since October 2009, and the High Courts decision to rule in favour on whether parliament must be consulted before invoking Article 50 has also boosted the Pounds value.

The UK Prime Minister, Theresa May has appealed the High Court’s ruling and I think whether or not she’s successful will have a large bearing on how the Pound performs, as the Pound is likely to fall once again if Theresa May is successful just like it did when she initially outlined her plans of invoking Article 50 at the beginning of next year.

There’s a chance that the Pound could drop back to levels seen prior to the High Court Ruling and Trumps victory, and if so then now is the time to take advantage of what’s left of the Pounds recent gains.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Will last week’s High Court decision be a turning point of the Pound? (Joseph Wright)

Last week was the best week the Pound has had vs the US Dollar since October of 2009, as worries over the proposed ‘Hard Brexit’ eased.

Fears eased as England’s High Court ruled last Thursday that the Government needs parliamentary approval before starting the Brexit process, and the Pound has boosted across the board off the back this news after having a particularly difficult October.

The Pound had been generally declining against all major currency pairs since UK Prime Minister, Theresa May announced plans to invoke Article 50 at the end of March next year, which was considered a ‘Hard Brexit’ approach. Through October the currency lost around 5% vs most other major currency pairs so the High Court’s decision last week has of course been welcomed by those hoping to see Sterling strengthen.

Those hoping to see the Pound continue to climb, and it’s worth noting that the currency has held onto its gains from last week, will be hoping for further positive news surrounding the UK economy and a potential ‘Soft Brexit’. I think there will be movement within Sterling exchange rates when the outcome of the governments appeal against the High Court’s decision last week is announced, and if the government are unsuccessful I expect to see the pound rally once again.

On the other hand if the government is successful in the appeal, we can expect to see the Pound decline so those with a currency requirement involving the Pound would be wise to get in contact, as if there’s a big swing in exchange rates we’re able to make our clients aware very quickly.

Overnight the outcome of the US election is likely to be announced, and I think that a Clinton victory is likely to push the Pound downward as the US Dollar is likely to rally.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy or sell a foreign currency, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Will the Pound continue to fall this year, and what to look out for tomorrow (Joseph Wright)

It’s been an interesting couple of days for Sterling exchange rates as the currency has been undecided on its general direction of movement.

At the time of writing the Pound is actually down on the day against all major currency pairs such as the US Dollar, Euro and the Australian Dollar. Although throughout today’s trading session Sterling has spiked upward at times, offering clients the chance to book their trades whilst the exchange rate was quite considerably higher than it’s lowest point throughout the day.

The reason for the buoyancy towards the Pound this morning and at times throughout the day, is most likely down to the better than expected inflation figures yesterday which demonstrated a 1% gain in inflation over the past year, which is currently a healthy level although that could change if it gets out of hand due to the rapidly weakening Pound.

It’s on days like today whereby our clients benefit from the service we provide, as the monetary difference between converting currency at the bottom of the day’s exchange rate range, compared with the top of the day’s range can be huge when converting large amounts of currency.

We’re already in a position to improve substantially on the exchange rates offered by high street banks, but with our proactive service we’re able to often maximize our clients exchanges to their benefit.

There are a number of analysts from major institutions offering forecasts for the GBP/EUR pair of parity, which means they’re expecting the Pound to fall another 9% or so between now and in many cases, the end of next year. HSBC are perhaps the most prominent entity to make such a claim, so feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss your options regarding this potential fall as there are methods of protecting yourself against such a fall.

Tomorrow is expected to be a busy day for exchange rates due to the raft of economic data releases, with the European Central Bank’s Interest Rate Decision likely to be the most prominent. Should there be a change to the 0% figure expected tomorrow by analysts, I would expect to see some substantial movement within exchange rates involving the Euro as well as many other pairs who’s performance is interconnected with the ECB’s monetary policy.

The ECB’s release is at 12.45pm which gives you plenty of time to get in touch beforehand should you wish. You can call me (Joseph) directly on 01494 787 478 if you wish to regarding the news release and our service. 

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Sterling exchange rates remain under pressure with fresh post-brexit vote lows seen yesterday and this morning (Joseph Wright)

The pressure on the Pound is continuing this morning as yesterday afternoon we really saw the sell-off pick up steam.

The catalyst for these falls has been UK Prime Minister, Theresa May’s comments over the weekend at the Conservative Party Conference. She has outlined the end of March next year as the date that the invocation of Article 50 will take place, meaning the UK will then have 2 years to remove itself from the EU.

This news has been Sterling negative as many had hoped for a long drawn out process, with lots of negotiations and hopes that the UK will retain access to the EU’s single market but that doesn’t seem to be the case. What’s more likely to occur will be a ‘hard brexit’ which is what many hard-line brexit voters had hoped for, but the financial markets hadn’t.

For those hoping that the Pound will recover, there are a few forecasts from major financial institutions that I think they should be aware of. Danske Bank has previously highlighted 1.08 as level the GBP/EUR pair could fall to within the next 6 months. Credit Suisse this past weekend outlined 1.0922-1.10 as a price target and Unicredit have just adjusted their forecast to 1.1111 (0.90 in the EUR/GBP reciprocal rate) so they clearly expect further falls for the Pound.

Do bear in mind that Sterling exchange rates in many cases are trading at over 3 year lows and in GBP/USD’s case, a 31 year low.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Sterling exchange rates drop once again as hopes of a ‘soft brexit’ fade, so where will the Pound go from here? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is facing increasing pressure at the moment as the impact of the UK’s upcoming exit from the EU is unsettling financial markets.

Sterling exchange rates dropped substantially as soon as it was announced that the UK electorate had voted to leave the EU, with the GBP to USD exchange rate dropping to a 31 year low, and the GBP to EUR exchange rate dropping to a 3 year low along with many other major currency pairs.

There was a slight rebound as a number of particularly positive business surveys within key UK industries showed that a weaker Pound had actually boosted economic output within the UK in it’s new post-brexit-vote environment. That rebound has now been reversed as we edge closer to those 52 week lows, and I think it’s worth noting that cable (GBP/USD) has now dropped back below the key psychological level of 1.30 which may trigger further falls for the pair.

Now that it’s common knowledge that UK Prime Minister Theresa May will likely invoke Article 50 towards the beginning of next year, hopes of a prolonged ‘soft exit’ have dwindled and this is being reflected within currency markets as the Pound weakens pretty much on a daily basis at the moment.

Those with an upcoming currency exchange requirement which involves converting pounds into another major currency, may wish to consider moving on that sooner rather than later as many economists have predicted parity for GBP/EUR, our clients are still comfortably in excess of 10 cents from this level so moving now may be a wise decision come later in the year/next year.

Today’s major news release will be the most recent Fed Reserve Bank Interest Rate decision, and although no change is expected a move by the Fed is likely to create volatile trading conditions which we would usually trade around with our clients, as sensitive news releases such as this one can widen exchange rates and our sole purpose is to obtain great rates for our clients.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

What do we really think is going to happen next for the pound?

Unfortunately all the positive thinking in the world will not help move an exchange rate. You can try all manner of methods to try and alter your situation but unfortunately the market is impersonal and does not react for these reasons. Looking at the economic reality sterling has had a slightly better week although in my opinion this is against the grain of a continuing negative decline in the value of sterling. Let us look at the positive news so far this week which has helped the pound, is it indicative of a big rebound in the value of the pound, is it a sign that Brexit is nothing to worry about and everything is going to be okay? Let us drill down into the detail of the figures and make an assessment if two pieces of good news this week are going to be enough to turn the tide on a raft of negative indicators.

  • Positive Unemployment data. The data released only covered the period up until the vote. The claimant count reduction (people claiming benefits) fell in July but this is not something I would be drawing too much positivity for the UK from. We won’t know the full impact on Unemployment from the Brexit until October or even the New Year as the data is always 3 months behind. Plus it takes many months for workers to leave jobs or lay offs to occur so it might not be until well into 2017 until we know the true Unemployment picture. The fact remains all the economic data is showing big declines in business, this will cause problems down the line.
  • Excellent Retail Sales Figures. The data for July showed a huge boost in Retail activity much better than June. What makes Brits go out and spend money? Sunshine! The excellent weather which on some days was 9 degrees higher than the average for that period saw lots of money on extra food, drink and clothes as people socialised more and went out more. Can we rely on sunshine to drive the UK recovery? Well I wouldn’t be banking on it….

It is only 2 months since the vote and I believe there are still many skeletons finding their way into the cupboards of the UK economy. Misplaced positivity can be a very dangerous thing. I prefer a careful, measured and balanced assessment of the facts. The pound has risen this week and may yet spike a little further following some very tough weeks. But with so little really known about the political and economic impact following Brexit I feel that sterling will fall further in the remaining months of 2016. If you are buying or selling the pound and have a transfer to consider please fill in the form below and I will contact you to discuss further the market and your options. Alternatively you can email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk for a more personal service. I have nearly ten years experience working as a specialist currency broker for one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokerages and would be delighted to hear from you and offer some assistance to help you get the most for your money.

The pound – it will probably get worse before it gets better…

Oh brilliant in the midst of one of the UK’s worst political crisis ever the Tories are seeking to open another old wound – Grammar Schools. As a product of a Grammar School I would not be in any way against them, but surely a key priority right now is the Brexit plans? 7 and a half weeks since the vote is probably too early to start expecting a solution to an issue that will surely take years to deliver but will someone please provide some direction and leadership in this affair? Personally I would be advocating a so-called hard Brexit, wouldn’t it be a shame if the UK ended up like Norway? With a basically worse version of what we already have! Personally I would favour a reformed Free Movement of People principle but still seek access to the Single Market. Surely the politicians can see this? Some say it would lead France and Italy to seek Frexit or Italexit – (did I just coin a phrase?!) but can’t the EU leaders see they need to change tact to keep the EU together? Politics is an important factor on sterling exchange rates and any big developments here will have a big impact on the pound. Whilst having a new PM is great and I do support Theresa May in as much as I believe she is one of the best candidates to lead the UK at this time, the likelihood of further political uncertainty from the Brexit is very high. It will probably get worse before it gets better!

The big economic news this week is the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) has an estimate on GDP (Gross Domestic Product) tomorrow. The NIESR estimate is a rolling 3 month estimate that reviews the last 3 calendar months which will include July’s data. Since we won’t get any views on July’s GDP from the official supplier of GDP data – the ONS (Office National Statistics) until October, tomorrow’s news is key to understanding the impact of post Brexit vote Britain on UK GDP, the holy grail of economics. We also have a raft of other data including Trade Balance data plus Industrial and Manufacturing data tomorrow but as this data is for June it won’t provide as much insight on the economy as the NIESR data. With the PMI survey’s showing big falls and all the fresh data showing less hiring, less growth and less confidence you would have to say it will probably get worse before it gets better.

There isn’t much else to celebrate this week economically for the pound and with the Bank of England confirming another rate cut is likely in the next month it seems likely the pound will fall further. We have a statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speech on Tuesday night, then the New Zealand Interest Rate decision Wednesday night and Eurozone GDP on Friday. So there you have it folks a fairly busy week, I think the UK GDP is the highlight and something I will be closely watching. Have you ever wondered if there was a better way of doing something? if it would be possible to get a slightly better exchange rate than you are currently achieving? Or wished you could talk to someone knowledgeable who treats you like a human being and explain the foreign exchange market clearly and concisely? My name is Jonathan Watson and I am the author of this post and have worked as a foreign exchange broker for close to ten years helping literally thousands of clients both private and business to make informed choices at the very best exchange rates. I have been quoted in national newspapers and even appeared on the BBC discussing the EU Referendum earlier this year. If you have a transfer to consider I would be most interested to hear from you and offer further information to help you get a better deal, please email jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to me Jonathan Watson. Please note I can only help with bank to bank transfers from £10,000 to the multi millions and do not deal in holiday cash. You can also fill in the form below.