Tag Archives: Euro exchange rates
The pound is fairly stable and range bound at present as markets keenly await the next direction of the Brexit. We are all eagerly awaiting the next bits of news over the Supreme Court decision and it is this which will determine the more immediate direction on the currency pairing. If you have a transfer to consider involving sterling understanding what is happening and being ready to react is the best way to capitalise on this news. At the moment we do not know when the decision will be released and this is keeping the market nervously on its toes.
Essentially upholding the previous High Court decision should see the pound rally but I think the gains will be limited. My personal expectation is for this to lead to sterling gaining up to 2% against its counterparts. If the decision goes for the government sterling will fall because I believe markets have very much priced in ‘good news’ that the previous decision would be upheld. If it falls in this scenario sterling could lose up to 4% as it becomes apparent a hard Brexit is more likely again. Sterling might retest the kind of levels we saw back in October last year.
After the Supreme Court decision attention will still remain on the Brexit and any good news for sterling will be shortlived in my opinion. There will still be many unanswered questions and as the resignation of Sir Ivan rogers, the UK’s Ambassador to the EU shows there is scope for further political casualties. Attention towards the end of the quarter will focus on the likelihood of Theresa May triggering Article 50 plus the Dutch and French elections. I expect GBPEUR could trade between 1.12 – 1.23 depending on the various outcomes here. If you wish to trade at these levels and wish to be kept informed of developments please email me on firstname.lastname@example.org
The big news on the US dollar is the likelihood of further interest rate rises. A strong jobs report has given rise to expectation we could see further interest rate hikes soon and GBPUSD has dipped. I expect GBPUSD to trade between 1.14 and 1.25 in the coming weeks. As you can see I feel the US dollar will be strengthening.
If you have a currency transfer involving sterling and wish to optimise your position with some expert insight and information please contact me Jonathan on email@example.com. I work as a currency specialist and have appeared on BBC News discussing Brexit and the impact on the currency markets. I would be very happy to hear from you and answer any questions and help you with your situation.
Thank you for reading, I hope to hear from you soon.
The pound has entered a fresh period of buoyancy finding favour against all currencies in November. October was a month of tremendous uncertainty but sterling has now recovered and this is presenting some very good news opportunities to buy a foreign currency. December is already looking extremely interesting with some very important events in the Eurozone and the United States which you can read more about in my post from this morning here. Otherwise let us have a look at some of the key decisions which will shape sterling exchange rates for the end of 2016.
The Supreme Court decision is one of the biggest factors for the pound in my opinion since it highlights the path to Brexit. The decision as to whether or not the UK will have to seek parliamentary approval to trigger Article 50 is of major consequence to the pound. If the Supreme Court rule Parliament does then we will surely see sterling rise since it makes the ‘hard’ Brexit Theresa May is apparently pursuing less likely. Parliamentary approval will undoubtedly hinge on severe watering down of the terms and even raises the possibility Brexit may not happen. The court decision may not be known until January but the story will be big news for December and early January.
If you are planning a currency exchange involving sterling I would be making plans around this information, it looks likely the vote will be upheld so sterling could rise further. If you need to buy or sell the pound then making some plans sooner rather than later is best to avoid the uncertainty this event presents to financial markets. For more information on this event and how to take advantage please speak to me Jonathan by calling 01494 787 478 or emailing firstname.lastname@example.org
It’s been an interesting couple of days for Sterling exchange rates as the currency has been undecided on its general direction of movement.
At the time of writing the Pound is actually down on the day against all major currency pairs such as the US Dollar, Euro and the Australian Dollar. Although throughout today’s trading session Sterling has spiked upward at times, offering clients the chance to book their trades whilst the exchange rate was quite considerably higher than it’s lowest point throughout the day.
The reason for the buoyancy towards the Pound this morning and at times throughout the day, is most likely down to the better than expected inflation figures yesterday which demonstrated a 1% gain in inflation over the past year, which is currently a healthy level although that could change if it gets out of hand due to the rapidly weakening Pound.
It’s on days like today whereby our clients benefit from the service we provide, as the monetary difference between converting currency at the bottom of the day’s exchange rate range, compared with the top of the day’s range can be huge when converting large amounts of currency.
We’re already in a position to improve substantially on the exchange rates offered by high street banks, but with our proactive service we’re able to often maximize our clients exchanges to their benefit.
There are a number of analysts from major institutions offering forecasts for the GBP/EUR pair of parity, which means they’re expecting the Pound to fall another 9% or so between now and in many cases, the end of next year. HSBC are perhaps the most prominent entity to make such a claim, so feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss your options regarding this potential fall as there are methods of protecting yourself against such a fall.
Tomorrow is expected to be a busy day for exchange rates due to the raft of economic data releases, with the European Central Bank’s Interest Rate Decision likely to be the most prominent. Should there be a change to the 0% figure expected tomorrow by analysts, I would expect to see some substantial movement within exchange rates involving the Euro as well as many other pairs who’s performance is interconnected with the ECB’s monetary policy.
The ECB’s release is at 12.45pm which gives you plenty of time to get in touch beforehand should you wish. You can call me (Joseph) directly on 01494 787 478 if you wish to regarding the news release and our service.
If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on email@example.com in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.
Unfortunately all the positive thinking in the world will not help move an exchange rate. You can try all manner of methods to try and alter your situation but unfortunately the market is impersonal and does not react for these reasons. Looking at the economic reality sterling has had a slightly better week although in my opinion this is against the grain of a continuing negative decline in the value of sterling. Let us look at the positive news so far this week which has helped the pound, is it indicative of a big rebound in the value of the pound, is it a sign that Brexit is nothing to worry about and everything is going to be okay? Let us drill down into the detail of the figures and make an assessment if two pieces of good news this week are going to be enough to turn the tide on a raft of negative indicators.
- Positive Unemployment data. The data released only covered the period up until the vote. The claimant count reduction (people claiming benefits) fell in July but this is not something I would be drawing too much positivity for the UK from. We won’t know the full impact on Unemployment from the Brexit until October or even the New Year as the data is always 3 months behind. Plus it takes many months for workers to leave jobs or lay offs to occur so it might not be until well into 2017 until we know the true Unemployment picture. The fact remains all the economic data is showing big declines in business, this will cause problems down the line.
- Excellent Retail Sales Figures. The data for July showed a huge boost in Retail activity much better than June. What makes Brits go out and spend money? Sunshine! The excellent weather which on some days was 9 degrees higher than the average for that period saw lots of money on extra food, drink and clothes as people socialised more and went out more. Can we rely on sunshine to drive the UK recovery? Well I wouldn’t be banking on it….
It is only 2 months since the vote and I believe there are still many skeletons finding their way into the cupboards of the UK economy. Misplaced positivity can be a very dangerous thing. I prefer a careful, measured and balanced assessment of the facts. The pound has risen this week and may yet spike a little further following some very tough weeks. But with so little really known about the political and economic impact following Brexit I feel that sterling will fall further in the remaining months of 2016. If you are buying or selling the pound and have a transfer to consider please fill in the form below and I will contact you to discuss further the market and your options. Alternatively you can email me on firstname.lastname@example.org for a more personal service. I have nearly ten years experience working as a specialist currency broker for one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokerages and would be delighted to hear from you and offer some assistance to help you get the most for your money.
Oh brilliant in the midst of one of the UK’s worst political crisis ever the Tories are seeking to open another old wound – Grammar Schools. As a product of a Grammar School I would not be in any way against them, but surely a key priority right now is the Brexit plans? 7 and a half weeks since the vote is probably too early to start expecting a solution to an issue that will surely take years to deliver but will someone please provide some direction and leadership in this affair? Personally I would be advocating a so-called hard Brexit, wouldn’t it be a shame if the UK ended up like Norway? With a basically worse version of what we already have! Personally I would favour a reformed Free Movement of People principle but still seek access to the Single Market. Surely the politicians can see this? Some say it would lead France and Italy to seek Frexit or Italexit – (did I just coin a phrase?!) but can’t the EU leaders see they need to change tact to keep the EU together? Politics is an important factor on sterling exchange rates and any big developments here will have a big impact on the pound. Whilst having a new PM is great and I do support Theresa May in as much as I believe she is one of the best candidates to lead the UK at this time, the likelihood of further political uncertainty from the Brexit is very high. It will probably get worse before it gets better!
The big economic news this week is the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) has an estimate on GDP (Gross Domestic Product) tomorrow. The NIESR estimate is a rolling 3 month estimate that reviews the last 3 calendar months which will include July’s data. Since we won’t get any views on July’s GDP from the official supplier of GDP data – the ONS (Office National Statistics) until October, tomorrow’s news is key to understanding the impact of post Brexit vote Britain on UK GDP, the holy grail of economics. We also have a raft of other data including Trade Balance data plus Industrial and Manufacturing data tomorrow but as this data is for June it won’t provide as much insight on the economy as the NIESR data. With the PMI survey’s showing big falls and all the fresh data showing less hiring, less growth and less confidence you would have to say it will probably get worse before it gets better.
There isn’t much else to celebrate this week economically for the pound and with the Bank of England confirming another rate cut is likely in the next month it seems likely the pound will fall further. We have a statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speech on Tuesday night, then the New Zealand Interest Rate decision Wednesday night and Eurozone GDP on Friday. So there you have it folks a fairly busy week, I think the UK GDP is the highlight and something I will be closely watching. Have you ever wondered if there was a better way of doing something? if it would be possible to get a slightly better exchange rate than you are currently achieving? Or wished you could talk to someone knowledgeable who treats you like a human being and explain the foreign exchange market clearly and concisely? My name is Jonathan Watson and I am the author of this post and have worked as a foreign exchange broker for close to ten years helping literally thousands of clients both private and business to make informed choices at the very best exchange rates. I have been quoted in national newspapers and even appeared on the BBC discussing the EU Referendum earlier this year. If you have a transfer to consider I would be most interested to hear from you and offer further information to help you get a better deal, please email email@example.com or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to me Jonathan Watson. Please note I can only help with bank to bank transfers from £10,000 to the multi millions and do not deal in holiday cash. You can also fill in the form below.