Tag Archives: euro rate forecast
Will the UK avoid a recession, pound sterling forecast, euro rate forecast, selling euros, buying euros (Steve Eakins)
This week GBPEUR rates have swung by over 1.5% meaning a well-timed trade could have saved you £2,500 on a €250,000 purchase. This swing was down to a change in risk appetite and yesterday’s speculation on Quantitative Easing both in the UK and the Eurozone, read more here.
Rates of exchange today will probably be driven from news coming state side as US non-Farm Payroll is released at 13:30 BST. This provides an update on the state of employment in the USA publishing the amount of new jobs that have been created, the markets are expecting a figure around 140,000. If this is confirmed I expect GBPEUR rates to climb as money is moved from Europe to the US making the euro cheaper to buy. This will probably result in the rates going up by around 0.5% (For a full explanation on what is driving your rate of exchange today please call +44 (0) 1494 787 478, or email me, Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk)
Next week eyes will be closely fixed on the UK with data being released on Tuesday afternoon probably the most influential. This is when the first estimates are released for UK Gross Domestic Product Q1 2013. The reason why this is so key is because if the figure is negative, representing a contraction in growth, the UK will technically be in a recession once more. This would make the UK the first in the Eurozone to have fallen into a Triple Dip Recession, which as you can probably imagine will be seen as negative resulting in heavily losses for the pound. I would expect to see losses upwards of 2 cents adding perhaps as much as £2,300 on a €150,000 purchase so this is something anyone with a currency need should be very wary of.
The strategic options you have can be summarised into three options;
- Buy beforehand to avoid the risk,
- Limit your exposure by splitting your trade and buy some before and after,
- Roll the dice and trade after the release.
My view is that the UK will have probably avoided a recession but don’t assume that if that is confirmed rates will climb significantly, in that situation rates will probably stay steady or only gain by a small degree perhaps 0.5% at most. As a result the expectations on the FX market is for rates to either climb a little or drop a lot. This makes it an easy decision for Euro Sellers but for buyers of the single currency it is perhaps a more difficult decision to make. Buyers may like to be reminded that we are currently buying at a near 2 month high.
How do I get the best price?
Those who like a flutter not just on the grand national this weekend may be looking at trading over the event, if this is you will probably want to exploit our SPIKE NOTIFICATION service. We simply contact you with breaking news allowing you to make an educated decision on when to buy straight away, this can be hugely valuable as rates will often yo-yo after events with the highest point being straight after, (for more information on this service simply get in contact.)
If perhaps you have a target rate that you are trying to achieve a RATE ALERT might be best. To register for each simply email me Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk with your details.
In either case we here offer an award winning service providing a proactive service helping you time your trade while giving you access to award winning exchange rates. If you have found this blog useful feel free to contact us for a quotation on your exchange to see how much you could save. It could be very well spent 10 minutes! Please call +44 (0) 1494 787 478, or email me, Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk
GBPEUR rates when to buy or sell
Over this week the GBPEUR exchange rates have been very volatile, moving by nearly 3 cents in 5 days. Regular readers will be aware that is has been down to speculation that the European Central Bank would change banking policy for the better, and help the Eurozone out of problems. However this seems to have been just a political ploy as nothing significant was announced and as a result the gains the euro had seen evaporated over a few minutes.
So what can we do can we do to help?
All the authors of www.eurorateforecast.com www.poundsterlingforecast.com and http://www.gbpeuroforecast.co.uk/ work alongside me at a company called Foreign Currency Direct PLC and we have been helping people move money internationally for over 12 years. We have won a number of awards for both our exchange rate and our service, quite simply put, if we could not save our clients’ money against the banks we would not be in business. If you need to move funds and want to make sure you are both getting the best exchange rates and want help to try and time your exchange, we can help.
Example
I have helps two clients that contacted me this week after reading my blog on Monday. In both occasions they were looking to sell euros and buying pounds. One of which had all the funds available and the other who didn’t was decided to use a Forward contract. In both situations it was decided to move on the expectation of change yesterday rather than waiting for the release which seems to have been the correct decision. Both saved over 2 cents compared to when they first contacted me, plus if we had waited any longer it could have cost them a lot more. At the time we worked out that one saved nearly £8,000 and the other £2,500, or 2%.
These are normal clients and situation, we are helping people do this every day of the week. If this sounds like something you might be interested in feel free to contact us with no obligation so we can introduce ourselves a little more formally. Either call us on 0044 (0) 1494 787 478 and ask for me Steve Eakins or email me at hse@currencies.co.uk
