Tag Archives: euro
Pound strength following King Speech (Steve Eakins)
Today, which is probably the busiest day this week has already provided a few surprises. It was this morning confirmed that France has re-entered a recession creating euro weakness, UK Unemployment is improving and then currently the current Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, in his last speech seems to be talking the value of the Pound up. In summary GBPEUR rates have now risen from the 2 week low at the beginning of the day towards a near 4 month high we last visited 4 weeks ago.
So what next for GBPEUR exchange rates?
Near future – EURO buyers may want to hold off till tomorrow when we have the last big data release for GBPEUR this week when the Eurozone confirms their Consumer Confidence figures for April. The expectation is for this data to show a contraction so rates may climb further for GBPEUR following this news which is released at 10 am BST. Euro sellers may want to move before hand as a result.
Medium term – Next week we have UK Production Price Index, UK Retail figures, Bank of England minutes, UK GDP figures and UK Mortgage approvals. Expectations for these releases will be more concrete on Monday so keep reading here for the latest forecasts and updates on these releases. This should help highlight potential buy and sell opportunities when it may be the best time to trade through next week.
Longer term – A lot hinders on the new Bank of England Governor Mark Carney that starts his post at the end of June. He may want to come in with an instant impact changing interest rates or the current asset buying program. It may the beginning of July when we see this and is already expected to be an interesting event that may give direction to exchange rates for the following few months.
If you are in the currency market and are interested in a more personal view on how the above events could affect you, feel free to contact us on the normal number (01494 787 478) or myself personally, Steve Eakins via email at hse@currencies.co.uk
Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report, EU GDP figures and the Australian Budget. Busy week on the currency markets! (Mike Vaughan)
Sterling started the week poorly against a number of currencies falling against the Euro and US dollar but continuing its recent resurgence against the Australian dollar. This week there is plenty of data to keep anyone with a keen eye on the money markets with some of the notable data sets as follow:
- Today 09:30 BST - Australia will release its yearly budget. This will be keenly viewed as the Australian government faces questions about its handling of the economy ahead of elections later this year. With the economy having been affected by weaker global forecasts and in particular from China, for which the Australian economy is heaviliy reliant, the outcome of the budget could be very interesting. Some analysts say that while the mining sector has been the driving force behind Australia’s steady economic expansion, other parts of the economy have stagnated or grown much less quickly. A key reason has been the strength of the AUD and the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) have been open in highlighting their concerns and may act to devalue the dollar, potentially good news for those buying dollars.
- Wednesday 10:00 BST- anyone with an interest in the Euro should watch out for EU GDP figures. Figures are expected to stay at -0.9% but any deviation from the expected figure and watch out for volatility on Euro exchange rates.
- Wednesday 09:30 BST – UK unemployment figures expected to stay at 7.9%
- Wednesday 10:30 BST – Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report and Mervyn King press conference. The BofE publishes a report of the detailed economic analysis and inflation projections on which the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions, and presents an assessment of the prospects for UK inflation over the following two years. Watch out for any clues with regards to QE, I personally believe the Bank will stay firm on its current p[olicies until the new governor Mark Carney takes over from Mervyn King in July.
- Friday 00:45 BST – Japan GDP release, expected to show an increase from a flat 0% to 0.7%.
- Friday 13:30 BST - to finish off the week on Friday we have inflation figures and unemployment data from the US at 13:30 BST.
As you can see we have plenty of data released for the rest of the week. To be kept up to date with the impact these data sets may have for your individual requirement then please contact me and I will happily run though my forecasts and run through the various contracts we can offer to help maximise your currency exchange. I am very confident I can help achieve a better rate than your current provider. Please call the office on +44 (0)1494 787478 or email me (Mike) with a brief overview of your requirement and I will gladly contact you to help with your money exchange. I can be reached at mgv@currencies.co.uk
GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD exchange rate forecasts. Get help to maximise your currency exchange (Michael Vaughan)
As expected the Bank of England (BofE) decided to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5% and decided against extending its Quantitative Easing (QE) programme.
This outcome was very much forecast and the market did very little as a result as many analysts expect little to come from the BofE until new governor Mark Carney takes over from Mervyn King in July. Following the release the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) released its forecast for GDP for the last three months to include April, the figures showed a stronger than expected level of 0.8% continuing the recent positive tones coming from the UK, something that could lead to sterling strength against a number of major currencies.
GBP/EUR
Sterling exchange rates have shown a marked improvement against the single currency since the year low of 1.1370 in March. Since this time the market has peaked at 1.19 (a shift of 4.5%) but has now remained range bound between 1.1750-1.1850 since the start of May. But what now for GBP/EUR?
For me I believe the pound will begin to find further support and may break through the 1.20 barrier heading into June, however I believe when Mr Carney takes over his reign as the head of the Central Bank then I believe he will look to impose himself immediately and look to extend QE to help boost the UK economy further. Should we see this then I would expect Sterling exchange rates to fall back towards the 1.18 territory as a result. For this reason anyone looking to buy Euros I feel you may get better value in the weeks to come but those selling may wish to consider their options.
GBP/USD Exchange Rates
As against the Euro, sterling has seen a mini-recovery against the greenback rallying from the year low of 1.489 in March to 1.559 earlier this week. This again represents a 4.5% shift in less than two months and to me represents a strong buy opportunity.
For me I feel GBP/USD is reaching a peak and would expect levels to fall back towards the 1.52/53 level as again the pound is likely to come under threat from future expectations regarding QE. I also feel it is a matter of time before problems in Europe re-surface and the major benefactor is likely to be the USD.
For those looking at GBP/USD in the coming days watch out for a speech from Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Ben Bernanke this afternoon at 13:30 – positive tones from Bernanke are likely to lend support to the US dollar this afternoon.
Has the Aussie bubble burst?
In the last month the pound has rallied close to 9 cents against the AUD following weaker sentiment from China, and the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates earlier this week. This is creating some great opportunities for AUD buyers a trend that may continue.
For anyone selling AUD I would still urge you to take advantage of rates that are historically still very favourable. The average trade price for GBP/AUD for the last year sits around 1.54, so with levels currently at 1.52 you are still ahead of the game. For me the current trend and sentiment from Australia is a concern and I would expect rates to move towards 1.55 as I feel the central bank is still concerned about the strength of the Aussie and the impact this is having on the value of Australian exports. I would not be surprised to see another interest rate cut within the next 3 months, something that could devalue the AUD further.
Should you have an upcoming money exchange to arrange and you would like more information on the currency service we provide please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email me (Mike) at mgv@currencies.co.uk
What will happen next week on sterling exchange rates?
An excellent run of form for sterling has seen us hit a 15 week high against the euro and 11 week highs against the US dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. Is this going to get much better or has this rally run out of steam?
I think that this rally has run out of steam but that does not mean rates are going to just crash back down. Sterling has been given a boost by the improved GDP stats (0.3% growth for Q1) which removes some of the more immediate concerns regarding sterling. In order for the pound to press on we need to see more positive data and next Thursday could be a trigger with Industrial and Manufacturing data plus the NIESR (National Institute of Economic & Social Research) estimate of GDP for April.
If you are considering moving sterling in the next few weeks next week could be fairly pivotal in shaping the future direction for sterling. It is important not just for sterling but due to the releases affecting other currencies. Here is a quick run through of a couple of things to beware of on rates next week.
EURO – Mario Draghi and the ECB (European Central Bank) are giving a couple of speeches next week including the ECB Monthly Report. There was a story today that the ECB were playing down speculation yesterday rates may be cut further. If any such bold statements are made I expect the Euro to strengthen, but not by much.. The Euro is in the firing line right now. If you are considering any GBPEUR or EURGBP transfers in the future please feel free to contact me for a forecast specific to your requirements. jmw@currencies.co.uk
USD – An improved employment outlook for the US today helped the USD to strengthen against sterling but unless the pound comes under pressure I expect GBPUSD to push higher. A speech next Friday by Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in the US, Ben Bernanke could be crucial.
AUSTRALIAN – The Reserve Bank of Australia meet for their monthly meeting next Monday evening where they decide on economic policy. The statement after their meeting may be more indicative of policy as no change is expected. Next week we also have Australian employment data which could move rates. On the whole I expect rates to remain good for buyers, sellers of AUD to buy GBP may wish to move sooner if they don’t see improvements.
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Even if your transfer is not required for some time we can forward book rates for a small deposit. For more information on the services and to make a comparison or register an alert for certain trading levels, please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
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Sterling at a three month high against the Euro, Aussie and US dollar (Mike Vaughan)
As expected the European Central Bank cut its base rate to a record low of 0.5% from 0.75% earlier today pushing GBP/EUR close to 1.19 for the first time in nearly three months, as Mario Dragji (head of the ECB) indicated he would consider cutting rates further and could not rule out negative interest rates. The move for sterling has been a welcome relief for many and showing little sign of slowing, in fact the pound has now gained 4.3% against the single currency since its low in mid March and a very similar trend has been experienced against a number of major currencies.
Moves against the greenback and Aussie have been even more substantial seeing a shift of 4.5% since mid March against the US dollar and 5.2% against the Australian Dollar in the last month. This makes a significant difference on your money exchange and may represent a strong buy opportunity for some, however I guess the question for many is will this last?
For me I believe this could be the start of a correction for the pound, certainly against the Euro and Australian Dollar but I feel the US dollar is less clear and will remain range bound between 1.53-1.55. Those buying Euros and AUD may get more from the market and I would look for levels to head towards 1.20 for GBP/EUR and possibly 1.55 for GBP/AUD. AUD buyers should watch out for the next RBA meeting (Reserve Bank of Australia) scheduled for Tuesday next week, should the RBA Australia cut interest rates (as some analysts are predicting) we could see a further shift for GBP/AUD, I feel the RBA may also be considering further rate cuts later this year and would expect to see more value for AUD buyers in the coming weeks, particularly should China show further signs of an economic slowdown.
For those looking to buy the US dollar I would certainly consider 1.55 to be viewed as good value and feel this has the potential to move back towards 1.50, although data of late from the US has been weaker than many expected which has pushed cable close to 1.56. Tomorrow watch out of US non-farm payroll figures that are expected to show a strong increase from last month, something again that could lend support to the dollar in tomorrows afternoon session. Much of the dollars moves will come down to perceived appetite for risk and I think with the market still so jittery losses for the dollar will slow and would expect levels to shift back in the dollars favour, I would expect US dollar sellers to get more value in the coming weeks.
Should you have an upcoming trade to arrange and you would like to discuss the market in more detail and how we can help you achieve a competitive commercial rate of exchange then please get in touch. We are here to help. Please email with your particular currency requirement and I will happily get in contact to discuss your options to help you maximise your trade. Email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Pound Sterling exchange rates against the Euro – Will we see an interest rate cut today? What effect will it have? (Daniel Wright)
Today is a big day for Europe as we may potentially see an interest rate cut which could lead to further weakness for the Euro.
Exchange rates for the pound against the Euro have remained fairly steady since the big push up following the issue in Cyprus however today has the potential to move rates onwards and upwards once more.
Of course, with so much speculation that this is going to happen there is a huge risk that if we do not see a cut in rates then we may see the Euro gain a little strength quite rapidly as the markets correct themselves – If you have a pending transfer to carry out involving buying or selling the Euro then it is key that you are ready to act fast.
If you would like me to get in touch personally following the decision then feel free to email me djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number for me to call you on.
We also have some construction figures for the U.K this morning which could give a nod to how the second quarter started for the U.K in 2013 -This could affect the Pound against all major currencies – We are currently at an 11 week high to buy the Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar which does lead to a great temptation to buy these particular currencies in case we see nthe rates slip back down again.
Personally I think Sterling confidence is up and the Pound may well start to creep in the right direction as I have been saying since the start of this year, however you must also be aware that the pattern tends to be that as soon as Sterling looks like it is finally about to push on something comes out to knock it straight back down again.
If you want to achieve the very best exchange rates, or even to ask me if the rate you are being offered is good before you accept it then feel free to get in touch with me directly – You can contact me by email djw@currencies.co.uk or call me directly on 01494 787 478 during U.K office hours, please ask for Daniel Wright.
Crunch time for the UK, will recession be avoided? Exchange rate forecasts (Mike Vaughan)
As my colleagues post highlights opinion in the office is entirely divided. The majority of traders believe a 0.1% figure will be released and this in turn should lend support to sterling exchange rates as a result. I for one have predicted this and hope for a better day pushing GBP/EUR above 1.18, GBP/USD towards 1.54 and GBP/AUD pushing closer to 1.50 – a trigger point for many AUD buyers.
Of course the decision will be a close one and many of those with an interest in the money markets will be keeping a very close eye on the 09:30 release. The office has a range of predictions from 0.1% to – 0.2%. To avoid recession we need to see 0% or better, something that may give the economy a much needed boost. Of late data in the UK has been somewhat better with the only exception retail sales, but these have been affected by unseasonably poor weather, something you cannot legislate for. Today could prove incredibly volatile, should you wish to remove this uncertainty then get in touch early on 01494 787478 or email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Although UK GDP data is likely to dominate today’s trading, other data to watch out for will include the following:
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 – expecting to show a slight decrease possibly lending support to the US dollar this afternoon.
Overnight we have the interest rate decision from Japan – expected to stay on hold at 0.1% and should cause little movement for GBP/JPY but watch out for the Bank of Japans monetary statement that will follow. This will outline the policies the BofJ will have in store and could have an impact on riskier currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR as the JPY is often used in conjunction with these currencies through he use of a carry trade. This is when investors borrow in a low yielding currency i.e. JPY and look for higher grossing currencies such as AUD, NZD and ZAR. It is a risky trade as the exchange rate movement can remove any gains from the higher yield offered and as a result economic sentiment from Japan could adversely affect the riskier currencies. I for one feel further opportunities will be seen for buyers of the AUD, NZD and ZAR in the coming few days and weeks.
To finish off the week watch out for annualised US GDP at 13:30 tomorrow. Expected to show a strong improvement which should drive cable rates back towards 1.51/52 to finish off the working week.
Should you have an upcoming trade to arrange and you would like to discuss the market in more detail and how we can help you achieve a competitive commercial rate of exchange then please get in touch. We are here to help. Please email with your particular currency requirement and I will happily get in contact to discuss your options to help you maximise your trade. Email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Our trading floor predictions for tomorrow – GDP figures and the high/low against the Euro (Daniel Wright)
I thought it may be interesting to quiz a group of traders on our trading floor regarding their thoughts on what we may see tomorrow for the U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures and where this may put rates during the day against the Euro.
The general feeling appeared to be growth for the U.K – Only just however, below below are the predictions of the traders we polled – if you fancy making your own prediction then email it to me
djw@currencies.co.uk why not see if you can beat the traders, we may even give away a prize if anyone is spot on!
Personally I feel we may see 0.1% growth as expected just about avoiding recession and that the market will creep up a little but will not absolutely rocket as many people do already expect the U.K to just about tiptoe around the R word.
If we are technically back in a recession you would imagine the Pound may drop considerably so it is key to have protection in place if you are close to budget on your overseas purchase – You can place a stop loss order (setting yourself a worst case scenario to be bought out automatically) or book some of your funds on a forward contract (booking a rate for a date in advance for a small deposit) Email me directly if you want a full explanation on these free contract types or just want assistance and the best exchange rates on any currency transfers. Catch me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief explanation of your requirements and a number to call you back on and I will be more than happy to help.
Our predictions – Just goes to show how close this is!
| Dealer | GDP | HIGH/LOW |
| JMW | -0.30% | 1.1684 |
| SPE | 0.40% | 1.218 |
| CAB | 0.20% | 1.195 |
| ATR | 0% | 1.1889 |
| THE | -0.10% | 1.1862 |
| MGV | 0.10% | 1.185 |
| JLL | 0.10% | 1.184 |
| CMG | 0.20% | 1.1837 |
| HJR | 0.10% | 1.1811 |
| BMA | 0.10% | 1.1786 |
| AJB | 0.10% | 1.1765 |
| MTV | 0.10% | 1.1631 |
| ASP | -0.10% | 1.1625 |
| TRH | -0.10% | 1.158 |
| PFH | -0.20% | 1.154 |
| DJW | 0.10% | 1.182 |
| HSE | 0.10% | 1.178 |
How will tomorrow pan out? Email me your prediction djw@currencies.co.uk
Bank of England minutes this morning, what impact will this have on the pound? (Mike Vaughan)
Today, as the country pays its last respects to the Iron Lady, the Bank of England will release its latest minutes from the interest rate decision held at the beginning of the month. The minutes are widely scrutinised for any clues as to future monetary policy and in particular whether the bank is considering further QE (Quantitative Easing). It is my view that the bank will not consider any QE in the short term and I hope the pound may have a positive day as a result. Of course any indication that QE will be considered again and the pound could fall across the board against the majors – for this reason today could prove very volatile.
For me the Bank of England will hold steady on any radical policies until the result of the latest GDP figures on the 25th April are released. This will officially confirm whether the UK has avoided recession, and I feel the result will be very close. With the NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) just last week forecasting revised figures of 0.1% I am confident the UK will scrape through and we may see sterling strength as a result. I would hope to see GBP/EUR moving towards 1.18, GBP/USD towards 1.55 and GBP/AUD breaking the 1.50 barrier.
IMF cuts global growth for the fourth consecutive time
Yesterday the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headed by Christine Legarde reduced its global growth forecast and urged European policy makers to use “aggressive” monetary policy as a second year of contraction leaves the euro area’s recovery lagging behind the rest of the world, its then stated it felt the global economy to grow a further 3.3% this year, less than the 3.5% forecast in January, after 3.2% growth in 2012 – this beings its fourth consecutive reduction in a row. The market didn’t react a great deal, as this news is of little surprise due to the state of much of the economic world, however it still is not particularly positive.
China’s growth forecast, is this a concern for the global economy?
Although figures from China were poor they are still considerably higher than much of the developed world, however signs that China is slowing may give cause to concern for the commodity based currencies such as the AUD and ZAR. Following the reduced forecasts the AUD weakened over 1.5% and the ZAR over 2.5% against the pound, a trend that may continue, all be it on not such a heavy scale. Figures for GBP/AUD are the best in nearly 6 weeks (1.4850) and GBP/ZAR has reached above 14 – I would expect those buying these currencies to get better opportunities in the next few days but these levels may not hang around for too long.
Should you have any upcoming money transfers to arrange and you have found this blog useful then why not contact us to see what we can do for you? The purpose of the site is to give you independent market views to help you make an informed decision with your currency exchange. By giving yourself as much information as possible it can put you in a far stronger position when attempting to maximise your currency exchange, allowing you to limit your exposure to adverse market movement.
To find out more about the specialist currency service we provide, whether you are a private or corporate client, then we can help. Please get in touch either on 01494 787478 or by emailing me with a brief description of your individual requirement and I will happily contact you and run through your options. You can reach me direct at mgv@currencies.co.uk
