Pound Sterling Forecast

Well, just when Friday was looking kind of quiet, Germany have lost their president… This suggests to me that as we have been saying for a very long time on here there is much, much more to this European crisis than is being let out of the bag.

I think the Euro Zone is in complete crisis and it is going to take heroic economic performance to resolve it, political instability does effect a currency and this indeed will not help the Euro and investor confidence.

This week is sure to be a lively one, below is what is due out and what I feel may happen:

This morning – Inflationary data has been released for the U.K (09:30am)

13:30pm Retail Sales (USA) – One for those with an interest in the Dollar this afternoon with Retail Sales figures being released. Many top analysts still believe the Dollar will launch a fight back in the coming weeks and months, and some believe the Dollar will have a strong year (making it more expensive to buy). Expectations for this release is an improvement and personally I feel the release will be good, but not quite as good as expected however this isn’t a huge release so no major market movement expected from this one.

21:45 Retail Sales (New Zealand) – This one will effect the ever strong New Zealand Dollar, which has had a great few months (Not so great for Britons with money to shift over there). The data covers the last quarter of 2011 and expectations are for a drop, this may lead to a short term spike against the new Zealand Dollar however in my opinion unless we see real global uncertainty again soon the the NZD will stay reasonably strong.

23:30 Consumer Confidence (Australia) – A late release for Australian Dollar followers which will show the confidence levels of individuals have in the economy and how things are going in Australia, many clients I speak to say all is not as rosy as is being made out over in Australia unless you are in the mining industry, but lets see what this brings, personally much like the NZD I feel the AUD will stay strong unless something major happens worldwide.

Tomorrow 08:00am (German GDP) – A key indicator as to how the largest economy involved in the Euro is performing, this is followed up at 10:00 by GDP data for the European Monetary Union. A bad release for Germany may indicate that the worst is yet to come as the EMU is expected to release a negative figure for Q4 of 2011.

Tomorrow 09:30am (U.K Unemployment) – A flurry of unemployment data for the U.K which is not expected to be too good (yet again). If you have Pounds and wish to buy a foreign currency it may be prudent to seriously consider your options before this release.

10:30am – (Mervyn king’s speech) Mr King seems to be very good at making the Pound weaken, whether it be on purpose or not  and those that have tracked Sterling over the past few years will indeed be well aware of this, certainly one to watch with interest… In my opinion Wednesday will be the most volatile day and I expect it to be poor for Sterling.

Thursday – Overnight (Australian Unemloyment Rate) No huge changes to unemployment expected in Australia however as always expect the unexpected in this market!

09:00 – ECB monthly Report - The European Central bank will release their monthly report on Thursday morning, this will give an indication as to how they plan to deal with the economy in the coming monthand what has happened in the past month, we may see a hint as to whether or not we can expect another cut in interest rates as has been mentioned of late, if this is mentioned with an indication for next month, we may see Euro weakness following it.

Friday 09:30am – U.K Retail Sales (January) How well did the retail sector perform after Christmas, I feel the U.K tightened their belts during this period and it would not surprise me to see another poor start to the day for the Pound.

12:00pm Canadian Inflation data – The Bank of Canada release inflation data at noon, slight rise to 0% is expected and any change from this could lead to movements either way… again we do appear to be range bound against this currency however I feel that sub 1.55 is just around the corner unless the U.K can bring us an unexpected good week.

13:30pm U.S Inflation- Inflation time for the States to round off the week, personally I feel this won’t be a big one for the markets unless something major is thrown into the mix.

In short I think the Pound will find it tough this week, if you have a bank to bank transfer to make from sterling to a major currency or from a major currency to Sterling then contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk to make sure you really are getting the best exchange rates for your transfer along with the highest level of customer service and efficiency. I look forward to hearing from you.

Good afternoon all, there are once again growing rumours that the SNB may be close to devaluing the CHF once again as it has been extremely close to their 1.20 benchmark against the Euro of late.

Last time the SNB did theis the Swiss Franc lost around 10 cents against Sterling in about an hour and has not recovered back since, so those of you earning your wages in CHF may wish to consider various options inclusive of a forward contract to lock in your rate of exchange for the coming year just in case this does happen.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have
saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting
up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can
also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with any questions you may have.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Halfway to recession?

Yesterday morning saw the release of U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures for the fourth quarter of 2011 released and unfortunately they did not make great reading for the U.K. Gross Domestic Product figuresshow how much an economy grew or contracted in that particular period and the prediction was for the U.K economy to have shrunk by 0.1%

The figure actually came out at -0.2% which doesn’t sound a lot but it does however mean we are indeed closer to a recession than many had first thought.

An economy is officially in a recession when it has two consecutive quarters of negative growth and with the U.K ending the year with one there is every chance now we could start the year with our second and the Pound may drop accordingly.

We will not find out the results for Q1 2012 until April – but if indications are there that this may be negative then Sterling exchange rates may find the next few months very tough – So far in the U.K we have managed to dodge any serious winter conditions, such as the weather we saw this time last year however should it come back and the economy take a hit accordingly then this may be enough to tip the balance.

Of course there are various problems globally that will no doubt hold back many other major currencies, The Euro Zone is also expected to drop back into recession territory as a whole at points this year so there will no doubt be various buying and selling opportunities along the way. Call us today on 0044 1494 725353 should you have an upcoming requirement and let us be that extra pair of eyes and ears on the market for you.

BOE Minutes – How will further QE affect the Pound?

The Bank of England minutes were also released yesterday and the results of which are probably why the Pound did not take a nosedive yesterday. All nine members of the BOE voted in favour of interest rates staying on hold and also, which is key the (QE) stimulus plan to be left on hold for the time being. It looks like the market had slightly priced in further QE in the near term and the fact that not one member was in favour right now should delay further stimulus for another month or two.

When more money is pumped into the economy it generally does weaken the Pound, and regular readers will be aware the mere mention of this does lead to weakness for the Pound, so be aware this will be a hot topic in the coming months.

Federal Reserve minutes and Dollar Exchange rates

Last night the Federal Reserve released their minutes from the first interest rate decision of the year in the U.S. They also tend to comment on economic conditions and how they plan to tackle their economic problems going forward.

In a Statement the Fed state that they expect interest rates to remain extremely low until late 2014 which did weaken the Dollar slightly shortly after the release. Interest rate hikes generally make a currency more attractive to investors and the fact they are planning to keep this low for quite some time may put investors off of putting their money into the USD.

I personally still expect the Dollar to perform well this year due to the problems globally, if you have Dollars to purchase this could be a great opportunity for you as it wouldn’t surprise me to see the GBP-USD rates below 1.50 in the next six weeks.

However, in a press conference later on last night some slightly positive news for Dollar buyers was the fact that Ben Bernanke had stated that the Fed would still be prepared to inject financial stimulus in the near term, which has opened up the door for QE3 in the U.S. This has been expected for some time though so I do not expect this to weigh too heavily on the Dollar.

KEY DATA WATCH: U.S  GDP Data Tomorrow at 13:30pm – This data could lead to a volatile end to the week as it is a key indicator as to how the U.S economy is performing. Expectations are for a reasonable jump in the right direction which could round off the week on a high for the Dollar.

RBNZ Interest Rate decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates on hold last night, giving the NZD a little more strength overnight. NZD rates are (like the AUD) closing in on the lowest we have seen in years and there is no guarantee they will be shooting back up again soon, with interest rates staying high and economic data fairly solid you may have quite a wait on your hands if you are awaiting a large movement back.

Data that may affect the Pound Today

Today is extremely quiet on the data front for the Pound and most majors, however do be aware that at any point we could hear news on the Greek debt talks. If so called ‘positive’ news comes from the talks then going on previous movements we could see some Euro strength pushing the Pound back below 1.19 and back out of arms reach of 1.20.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes….

There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Good day to you on what is statistically meant to be the most miserable and depressing day of the year, I hope you are all holding up well!

The week ahead looks to be a reasonably interesting one yet again, with a flurry of employment and inflation data and Mervyn King speaking too.

Those with an interest in the Australian Dollar may wish to keep a keen eye on the Chinese GDP data out overnight, should this be poor then we could see a small dent back in the AUD, better than expected and we could see new record lows.

Tomorrow Inflation data is out for the U.K followed by a speech from hea of the Bank of England Mervyn King, He is becoming ever nororious for knocking the Pound back when all looks to be heading the right way and a mention of Quantitative Easing plans may well do exactly that.

Wednesday is unemployment information, personally I would be surprised with the number of cuts we have seen and small businesses seemingly disappearing if this data is good, we may have a hairy few days lined up for Sterling if this is the case.

Australian Unemployment and U.S inflation data steps up on Thursday, hearing from contacts over in Australia I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Australian Dollar lose ground and some poor data to come out as apparently all isn’t as rosy as the currency strength suggest over in AUS.

Retail Sales for the U.K round of the week, probably will be reasonable as in the run up the Christmas stores were absolutely rammed and the boxing daty sales certainly didn’t show any sign of a recession from what I  could see.

In short, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound start off the week slowly and then climb back towards the end of the week, however there are plenty of surprises that ould pop up.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in
the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give
clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month
stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the
site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over
their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking
here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote
within minutes….

There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used
someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop
around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk
with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you

Good afternoon all,

As I said in my post on Monday today has indeed been by far the most volatilie of the week and as my fellow www.poundsterlingforecast.com writers have said in the last few days… The days of 1.20 did not last long and rates are right back into the 1.19s.

If you have missed the boat then don’t worry too much, rates could shift back up again, however this is not by any means 100% guaranteed!!

I always say that with currency transactions the greedy amoung us end up losing out the most, however I completely understand it is extremely easy to just keep holding out for that little bit extra and many of my clients do, the trouble is if rates then go down again you find yourself caught in a vicious circle desperate for rates to go back where they had been when you could have locked in… a very dangerous and rocky road to travel down!

A word of advice, if you have an upcoming currency transfer then set yourself a target level, if it hits it then buy it straight away and just don’t watch the market any more, more is lost through indecision rather than a poor decision!!

Both the Bank of England and European Central Bank kept rates on hold today, with a member of the BOE saying he felt we had to get more QE (Quantitative Easing) into place, those that are regular readers will know the mere mention of QE has tended to lead to Sterling losing strength, and just the mere rumour of it still carries great force.

The Euro had got weaker due to speculation of a rate cut too which obviously did not happen today, leading to a fight back for the single currency against both the Dollar and Sterling.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in
the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give
clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month
stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the
site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over
their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking
here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote
within minutes….

There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used
someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop
around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk
with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Ok, so great news for those that have been waiting to buy Euros and unfortunate news for those in the process of selling overseas, but just why has this all started to happen now?

Here is a great article explaining what the current problems are in Europe and also suggesting that we could see yet another rate cut in the Eurozone fairly soon due to potential deflation…. A rate cut is generally seen as negative for the currency concerned and a hike in rates positive, and with the markets moving on rumour as well as fact the mere mention of cuts again has weakened the Euro accordingly – The Greek situation is merely weeks away from coming to a head again too which certainly won’t be doing the Euro much good one would imagine, it seems March will be crunch time for Greece and personally I don’t see there is much left they can do.

It could still take a long time for Greece to leave the Euro as people need to remember in order to calculate a fair value for the Drachma it will take months of tracking rates and a lot of working out, just like when a country has joined the Euro in the past, so nothing is going to happen too quickly on this matter, and Greece leaving may even be seen as positive for the Euro as it is like cutting the rotton part out of the strawberry… To be honest though the whole strawberry is looking a little manky right now!

If you have a requirement to buy or indeed sell Euros, Dollars Australian Dollars, New Zealand Dollars, Canadian dollars, Thai Baht, South African Rand, Polish Zloty, Swedish Krona or any other major currency then please feel free to contact me directly.

To give you a quick background, I am a currency broker and have been in the industry for years, I set up this site two years ago and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information, and last year had 428 people get in touch with me through the site, of which 401 have already used me and saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with me by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. Theres no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone for years – Just like buying a tv you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Good afternoon all,

A quick update from me as we are extremely busy on the trading floor at present, 1.20 has been availalbe at points today on our trading floor – If you (like thousands of others) have been waiting for 1.20 then contact me directly on 01494 787 462  ( Please ask for Daniel Wright the owner of this site) and I will explain the process and how to get booked out through us, it takes you two minutes to set up an account online – http://www.currencies.co.uk/referral.asp?F_ID=1215 This is free and carries no obligation if you decide not to use us.

Whoever you are currently using, at least compare with me as I am putting through so much business already this week I shall have no problem in beating your bank or broker.

I look forward to hearing from you.

I’m sure I wasn’t the only one that had to prise myself out of bed this morning, but i’m back into the swing of things now and so are the markets with a minor fightback against the Dollar in early morning trading and fairly flat against the rest.

This week presents a lot of important data to kick the year off, this evening being the next release of interest as the Federal Reserve (Kind of the U.S version of the Bank of England monetary policy committee) release their minutes. I don’t expect any shocks tonight but again the U.S are good at throwing little surprises into the market so those with an interest in buying or indeed selling USD may wish to put protection in place in advance of this.

Tomorrow brings some data for the U.K at 09:30am with mortgage approvals, not a huge release unless the figure differs a lot from expectations.

Overnight tomorrow night we see the release of trade balance figures for the high flying Australian Dollar, personally after the slowing up of China it wouldn’t surprise me to see these slightly worse than expected and a small movement back in the right direction for the Pound however be warned the Australians spent most of 2011 surprising everyone so this certainly is not set in stone!

Friday is the biggest day of note for Euro, U.S Dollar and Canadian Dollar starting off with retail sales and unemployment data for Europe at 10:00am – to be honest with the continuing European problems one would imagine these aren’t going to be great, 12:00 brings unemployment data for Canada and with the Canadian Dollar haveing a great few weeks another bit of positive data could push this down even further, however no change is expected.

The biggest release of the week is in my opinion Non Farm Payroll Data for the States – This release can be just as important as interest rate decisions for the following reason – The markets move on rumour as well as fact and experts predictions of this release can be a million miles away therefore causing large swings in the rates of exchange as the markets price the actual result in accordingly. This release also seems to effect the markets as a whole and can cause volatility for all currencies so you really do need to have a close eye on rates on Friday at 13:30pm.

If you have a currency transfer to carry out either now or any point this year and want to get the best rates of exchange, email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I shall be happy to assist you both with my opinion on timing and when you do decide to do it I can get you the best rate too – I look forward to hearing from you soon.