Pound Sterling Forecast

Well we do indeed have a lot to cram in this week before a long weekend and what may even be a white Easter here in the U.K the way things are going.

After last weeks pasty and petrol combo that grabbed the headlines, this week should bring a slightly more interesting and relevant amount of news as there is a lot of economic data out accross the globe.

Today – GBP EUR AUD

Already this morning we have seen manufacturing data for Germany come out worse than expected and for the U.K data has indeed been better than expected, leading to another good start to the week for the Pound against most major curencies.

Shortly we will see the release of the European unemployment figures at 10:00am and i’m fairly sure that this won’t be news to celebrate for the Euro once again.

Overnight we see the Reserve Bank of Australia release their interest decision and it has been suspected a rate cut could be in order some time soon over there, should we see this then you may find the AUD weaken once again (an interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for the currency concerned as it makes it less attractive to investors). Should you have a transfer either buying or selling AUD then a limit or stop loss order may be sensible to protect yourself overnight, email me djw@currencies.co.uk for more details on this option.

Tuesday – GBP EUR

European GDP figures are out tomorrow morning and contraction is on the cards, this may again lead to Euro weakness in early morning trading however be aware that this is expected and the markets do move on expecatations as well as facts so if this release isn’t as bad as expected the Euro may pull some ground back.

Wednesday GBP EUR AUD

Australia release trade balance figures very early on Wednesday morning, this is a measure of imports and exports and should show us just how well Australia is still riding the Chinese wave.

For Euro followers the ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision is out followed by a press conference in mid afternoon. Quite often the rate decision doesn’t throw too much into the mix however the press conference follwing it genrerally leads to Euro volatility depending on what head of the ECB Mario Draghi  has to say about how he plans to tackle the current crisis.

Thursday - GBP CHF CAD USD

Before trading lines open those with an interest in the Swiss Franc may see some movement as CPI (Consumer Price Index) is released, this is inflationary data however I highly doubt it is going to move the marjkets too much, the GBP-CHF rate has been fairly static to say the least of late as investors wait and see just what the Swiss National Bank will pull out of their locker next.

Industrial and Manufacturing production is next on Thursday morning for the U.K and following a fairly positive release this morning I would not be surprised to see this lead to a minor spike again for the Pound.

Heads turn to Canada at 11:00am as the Canadian unemployment rate is released, expectations are for it to stay at 7.4%  (much better than the 23% in Spain however) any change to expectations could lead to a volatile end to the week for the Pound.

The USD finally gets a go on Thursday lunchtime at the end of what is quite a quiet week for the Dollar as jobless Claims data is out (similar to unemployment and may give an indication to how Non Farm Payrolls will come out next)

Finally to round off the week the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) release their GDP estimate for the U.K – GDP is in no doubt in my mind going to be the big talking point this month (If figures from quarter 1 for the U.K are negative we are back in a recession officially) and they are expected to predict a growth of 0.1% – Any change to this could lead to a mad end to the week and the it is going to be so tight as to whether the official figure at the end of the month is positive or negative that the Pound will no doubt be extremely jittery this month.

I personally feel the Pound may have another positive week, if you have an upcoming transaction to make either this week or in the coming months then feel free to contact me directly by emailing me djw@currencies.co.uk – The company I work for have won numerous awards for both exchange rates and customer service and if you find my site here a valuable read then having me as your personal broker should come in extremely handy too. I look forward to speaking with you.

Sterling has indeed crept up over the course of the week against the majority of majors as I had mentioned in my earlier post this week http://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/2012/03/25/u-s-gdp-figures-this-week-may-lead-to-sterling-spike/ - Once again staying reasonably stable against the Euro in what is now a considerably boring currency pair to be keeping an eye on.

This morning we saw a flurry of announcements from the Bank of England inclusive of credit conditions and money supply which

Later this afternoon the U.S is the main talking point, we see U.S GDP figures that could lead to quite a bit of volatility for most majors and also some unemployment figures for the States later on in the afternoon. Head of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke speaks at 16:45pm which as always may throw absolutely anything into the mix, however he spoke earlier in the week and I wouldn’t imagine any major changes from there.

Overnight, Consumer Confidence figures are released for the U.K at 00:01pm and with the pending petrol strikes and the added tax on pasties in the U.K i’m sure the general consumer isn’t in the best frame of mind at the moment, so we may see a little weakness overnight for the Pound.

If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out then I will be more than happy to help you both in terms of getting a better rate and a much better service, please feel free to contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with a contact number and I shall be happy to give you a call.

The States seems to be the talking point this week with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaking on Tuesday evening about the economy which of course can throw up absolutely anything as we have seen over the past year or so.

Most importantly we see the release of U.S GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures On Thursday at lunchtime if you are in the U.K. THis release can effect a host of major currencies and with the old saying on the markets of when the U.S sneezes the U.K catches a cold a positive release for the U.S may indeed benefit the Pound.

With China seemingly slowing down we have seen the Australian Dollar struggle over the past week or so and it wouldn’t surprise me for the AUD to have a volatile week once again. If you have a transfer involving either buying or selling the Australian Dollar I suggest you inform an experienced broker if you already use one, if you don’t and you have been just buying or selling when you see a good rate then maybe it is time you got some help on your side.

Feel free to email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk if you have a pending transfer to make and I will be happy to explain the various options available to you to either protect yourself from adverse market movements or to make sure you take advantage of a spike in your favour no matter what time of day or night.

As the week goes personally I feel that confidence is slowly creeping back into the Pound so we could have a fairly poitive week however as you are all aware, anything can happen these days!

Well, we could be faced with an extremely volatile week ahead with the amount of interest rate decisions we have due out and with the discussions that will follow prior to them.

First up is Australia, they release their interest rate decision overnight on Tuesday night followed by a monetary policy statement shortly afterwards, for the last few months speculation has been rife over whether or not the RBA will cut rates and on this occasion rates are expected to stay on hold. High interest rates generally make a currency more attractive and this is one of the factors that have kept the AUD strong over the past two years.

It would not surprise me to see a shock on this one, either a surprise cut in rates or a fairly interesting monetary policy statement shortly afterwards, personally I feel that should this happen we could see much better rates for buying Australian Dollars by the end of the week.

An interest rate hike is generally seen as very positive for the currency concerned and a cut in rates is seen as a negative, and the currency markets do move on rumour as well as fact, therefore even the mention of a rate cut in the future may lead to Australian Dollar weakness.

Next up is New Zealand on Wednesday night U.K time – no change is expected here however with the current global situation always expect the unexpected!

The U.K steps up on Thursday at midday, any change in interest rates would be front page news so I highly doubt we will see that, however any more QE (Quantitative Easing) could lead to Sterling weakness accross the board as we saw following the Bank of England minutes last Wednesday.

Europe is shortly after at 12:45pm and no change to rates is expected but watch out for the press conference in the afternoon, this might give indications as to current economic performance and plans to tackle certain issues inclusive of Greece which always turns a few heads in the investment world!

Finally, two releases on Friday with the Canadian Interest rate decision, i’m afraid no major shocks expected here, and the Non Farm Payroll data for the States – this can be as big a market mover as a change in interest rates as the predictions in adbvance can be wildly wrong – also this tends to affect all major currencies depending on the release.

If you have an upcoming transfer involving any of these currencies or indeed any other major currency and want me to be the eyes and ears on the market for you, then contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk leaving a brief description of your requirement and a contact telephone number and I shall be happy to help.

Well, just when Friday was looking kind of quiet, Germany have lost their president… This suggests to me that as we have been saying for a very long time on here there is much, much more to this European crisis than is being let out of the bag.

I think the Euro Zone is in complete crisis and it is going to take heroic economic performance to resolve it, political instability does effect a currency and this indeed will not help the Euro and investor confidence.

This week is sure to be a lively one, below is what is due out and what I feel may happen:

This morning – Inflationary data has been released for the U.K (09:30am)

13:30pm Retail Sales (USA) – One for those with an interest in the Dollar this afternoon with Retail Sales figures being released. Many top analysts still believe the Dollar will launch a fight back in the coming weeks and months, and some believe the Dollar will have a strong year (making it more expensive to buy). Expectations for this release is an improvement and personally I feel the release will be good, but not quite as good as expected however this isn’t a huge release so no major market movement expected from this one.

21:45 Retail Sales (New Zealand) – This one will effect the ever strong New Zealand Dollar, which has had a great few months (Not so great for Britons with money to shift over there). The data covers the last quarter of 2011 and expectations are for a drop, this may lead to a short term spike against the new Zealand Dollar however in my opinion unless we see real global uncertainty again soon the the NZD will stay reasonably strong.

23:30 Consumer Confidence (Australia) – A late release for Australian Dollar followers which will show the confidence levels of individuals have in the economy and how things are going in Australia, many clients I speak to say all is not as rosy as is being made out over in Australia unless you are in the mining industry, but lets see what this brings, personally much like the NZD I feel the AUD will stay strong unless something major happens worldwide.

Tomorrow 08:00am (German GDP) – A key indicator as to how the largest economy involved in the Euro is performing, this is followed up at 10:00 by GDP data for the European Monetary Union. A bad release for Germany may indicate that the worst is yet to come as the EMU is expected to release a negative figure for Q4 of 2011.

Tomorrow 09:30am (U.K Unemployment) – A flurry of unemployment data for the U.K which is not expected to be too good (yet again). If you have Pounds and wish to buy a foreign currency it may be prudent to seriously consider your options before this release.

10:30am – (Mervyn king’s speech) Mr King seems to be very good at making the Pound weaken, whether it be on purpose or not  and those that have tracked Sterling over the past few years will indeed be well aware of this, certainly one to watch with interest… In my opinion Wednesday will be the most volatile day and I expect it to be poor for Sterling.

Thursday – Overnight (Australian Unemloyment Rate) No huge changes to unemployment expected in Australia however as always expect the unexpected in this market!

09:00 – ECB monthly Report - The European Central bank will release their monthly report on Thursday morning, this will give an indication as to how they plan to deal with the economy in the coming monthand what has happened in the past month, we may see a hint as to whether or not we can expect another cut in interest rates as has been mentioned of late, if this is mentioned with an indication for next month, we may see Euro weakness following it.

Friday 09:30am – U.K Retail Sales (January) How well did the retail sector perform after Christmas, I feel the U.K tightened their belts during this period and it would not surprise me to see another poor start to the day for the Pound.

12:00pm Canadian Inflation data – The Bank of Canada release inflation data at noon, slight rise to 0% is expected and any change from this could lead to movements either way… again we do appear to be range bound against this currency however I feel that sub 1.55 is just around the corner unless the U.K can bring us an unexpected good week.

13:30pm U.S Inflation- Inflation time for the States to round off the week, personally I feel this won’t be a big one for the markets unless something major is thrown into the mix.

In short I think the Pound will find it tough this week, if you have a bank to bank transfer to make from sterling to a major currency or from a major currency to Sterling then contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk to make sure you really are getting the best exchange rates for your transfer along with the highest level of customer service and efficiency. I look forward to hearing from you.

Good afternoon all, there are once again growing rumours that the SNB may be close to devaluing the CHF once again as it has been extremely close to their 1.20 benchmark against the Euro of late.

Last time the SNB did theis the Swiss Franc lost around 10 cents against Sterling in about an hour and has not recovered back since, so those of you earning your wages in CHF may wish to consider various options inclusive of a forward contract to lock in your rate of exchange for the coming year just in case this does happen.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have
saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting
up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can
also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with any questions you may have.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Halfway to recession?

Yesterday morning saw the release of U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures for the fourth quarter of 2011 released and unfortunately they did not make great reading for the U.K. Gross Domestic Product figuresshow how much an economy grew or contracted in that particular period and the prediction was for the U.K economy to have shrunk by 0.1%

The figure actually came out at -0.2% which doesn’t sound a lot but it does however mean we are indeed closer to a recession than many had first thought.

An economy is officially in a recession when it has two consecutive quarters of negative growth and with the U.K ending the year with one there is every chance now we could start the year with our second and the Pound may drop accordingly.

We will not find out the results for Q1 2012 until April – but if indications are there that this may be negative then Sterling exchange rates may find the next few months very tough – So far in the U.K we have managed to dodge any serious winter conditions, such as the weather we saw this time last year however should it come back and the economy take a hit accordingly then this may be enough to tip the balance.

Of course there are various problems globally that will no doubt hold back many other major currencies, The Euro Zone is also expected to drop back into recession territory as a whole at points this year so there will no doubt be various buying and selling opportunities along the way. Call us today on 0044 1494 725353 should you have an upcoming requirement and let us be that extra pair of eyes and ears on the market for you.

BOE Minutes – How will further QE affect the Pound?

The Bank of England minutes were also released yesterday and the results of which are probably why the Pound did not take a nosedive yesterday. All nine members of the BOE voted in favour of interest rates staying on hold and also, which is key the (QE) stimulus plan to be left on hold for the time being. It looks like the market had slightly priced in further QE in the near term and the fact that not one member was in favour right now should delay further stimulus for another month or two.

When more money is pumped into the economy it generally does weaken the Pound, and regular readers will be aware the mere mention of this does lead to weakness for the Pound, so be aware this will be a hot topic in the coming months.

Federal Reserve minutes and Dollar Exchange rates

Last night the Federal Reserve released their minutes from the first interest rate decision of the year in the U.S. They also tend to comment on economic conditions and how they plan to tackle their economic problems going forward.

In a Statement the Fed state that they expect interest rates to remain extremely low until late 2014 which did weaken the Dollar slightly shortly after the release. Interest rate hikes generally make a currency more attractive to investors and the fact they are planning to keep this low for quite some time may put investors off of putting their money into the USD.

I personally still expect the Dollar to perform well this year due to the problems globally, if you have Dollars to purchase this could be a great opportunity for you as it wouldn’t surprise me to see the GBP-USD rates below 1.50 in the next six weeks.

However, in a press conference later on last night some slightly positive news for Dollar buyers was the fact that Ben Bernanke had stated that the Fed would still be prepared to inject financial stimulus in the near term, which has opened up the door for QE3 in the U.S. This has been expected for some time though so I do not expect this to weigh too heavily on the Dollar.

KEY DATA WATCH: U.S  GDP Data Tomorrow at 13:30pm – This data could lead to a volatile end to the week as it is a key indicator as to how the U.S economy is performing. Expectations are for a reasonable jump in the right direction which could round off the week on a high for the Dollar.

RBNZ Interest Rate decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates on hold last night, giving the NZD a little more strength overnight. NZD rates are (like the AUD) closing in on the lowest we have seen in years and there is no guarantee they will be shooting back up again soon, with interest rates staying high and economic data fairly solid you may have quite a wait on your hands if you are awaiting a large movement back.

Data that may affect the Pound Today

Today is extremely quiet on the data front for the Pound and most majors, however do be aware that at any point we could hear news on the Greek debt talks. If so called ‘positive’ news comes from the talks then going on previous movements we could see some Euro strength pushing the Pound back below 1.19 and back out of arms reach of 1.20.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes….

There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.