Tag Archives: European
Cyprus urged to rethink their plans by European ministers – What may happen to the Pound and the Euro? (Daniel Wright)
As mentioned on the BBC there are growing calls for Cyprus to rethink their plans to tax savings which has caused outrage among many and could lead to huge problems for the Euro zone as a whole.
As I mentioned in my previous post this could lead to a run on the banks in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and other European economies as fear will grow that if this can be done by Cyprus seemingly off the cuff then it may end up happening elsewhere.
The Cypriots now feel they have been invaded and I think politically this is going to cause much more trouble than the short term fix it will provide and will damage the Euro further down the line.
Keep checking back here for news on this subject, after being postponed on numerous occasions apparently we may get a decision today, if they have not had a rethink then we may look at larger problems further down the line and personally I would not be surprised to see the Euro weaken accordingly.
For those holding Sterling this may provide a short term opportunity to buy Euros, depending on what we see come from the budget tomorrow, if the Government and Bank of England continue their doom and gloom train the Pound may quite easily drop back again.
If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out involving buying or selling Euros then contact me directly and i’m sure I can make you a saving over your bank or current broker along with offering a much smoother and sharper service meaning you do not have to watch the market all the time.
Email me today djw@currencies.co.uk join our mailing list or fill in the enquiry for on this page. You can also call me directly during U.K office hours 08:30am – 18:00pm. I look forward to speaking with you.
The European Central Bank is far from exit – Draghi comments lead to Euro strength, what economic data is ndue out tomorrow and how will it affect Sterling exchange rates?
Mario Draghi – ECB is far from an exit
Latethisafternoon Head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi spoke in public and the main thing to take from his comments were that he feels that the ECB is far from an exit and that Euro breakup fears were totally unjustified.
These comments led to the Euro gaining a little strength back towards the end of the trading day after a cagey start to the week thanks the Italian elections we saw ruffle investors feathers at the start of the week as covered in our previous posts.
Personally I feel this may now calm down fears surrounding Europe in the short term (which Draghi appears to be the master of doing) and may now lead to the Euro pushing back down into the 1.14s in the next few days – If only Mervyn King seemed to speak with the same confidence the Pound would be much stronger I am sure.
European data out tomorrow
We have a host of economic data out for the Eurozone tomorrow morning which will no doubt also be key to the Euros performance tomorrow, with European unemployment and some inflation data all due to be released before 10:00am.
No major change to unemployment is due and PMI data is predicted to be stable, so any improvement on predictions could back up Draghi’s comments and may assist the Euro with another push back against the Pound in trading this morning.
If you wish to be kept abreast of the action as it happens then fill in the enquiry form on this page and one of our highly efficient brokers will get straight in touch to discuss the various options available to you.
U.S GDP figures out tomorrow afternoon
The states are next to take the limelight as US GDP figures (Gross Domestic Product) figures are released.
Gross Domestic Product is a key indicator to the performance of an economy and any change to the predicted figure may lead to a swift shift in exchange rates for almost all currencies.
Expectations are for the level to come out at 0.50% growth so keep a close eye on the markets at 13:30pm this afternoon especially if you have a pending currency transfer to carry out.
This release will not just effect the Pound and the Dollar, it can affect all major currencies as with the U.S being seen as a guide to global activity it can effect attitude to risk so you can see sharp movements in the riskier currencies such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.
Feel free to contact me directly should you be concerned as to what any of these data releases may do to exchange rates, I can assist you with any bank to bank currency transfers for your company, a property purchase or sale or indeed any particular reason. You can email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk please leave a contact number, a good time to call and a brief description of your requirements.
GBPEUR down again but how can the Euro survive so strong? “EURO IS DOOMED” (Steve Eakins)
Saxo Bank CEO says that the “Euro is Doomed”. In an interesting inverview over the weekend by the CEO of the SAXO bank some intersting commentry was made. He went on to say that the recent rally is a illusion and that the euro will fail because there is still no fiscal union. Right now we’re in one of those fake solutions where people think that the problem is contained or being addressed, which it isn’t at all.” AS regular readers will know the euro has gained nearly 6% against sterling since the beginning of the year. You can understand some of his arguments. As the Eurozone contacted 0.3% this year and the European Central bank Mario Draghi said only a week again that its strength risks growth and inflation.
So how does this work?
How can the euro gain when the economies of Germany, France and Italy all shrank more than estimated in the 4th quarter. They have recently been trying to finalise a bailout for Cyprus and Greece while in the back grown there is political scandal in Spain and an election contest in Italy. France may be the biggest worry as investments are dropping, unemployment climbs and pressure from elsewhere in Europe asking for
money to bulk up other economies. The economy Eurozone is on the brink of the 3rd recession in 4 years. The simply answer is the preserved strength of the economy compared to its position last year when many were worrying that Europe would fold.
So what next for exchange rates?
Well today (Monday) has been a quiet day as the US is closed. AS we are nearing the end of the month data releases are thin however don’t think that the market will be quite as a result. Wednesday and Thursday are the busiest days with releases on UK unemployment, Bank of England minutes, US Production Price Index and European Manufacturing data. Along with that we also have news on EU public sector debt, this has been climbing at a HUGE rate. In 2008 it was at 40% of GDP and its updated forecasts are thought to have climbed up to 97.1% I worrying story for the long distant but probably not a huge mover this week on currency exchange rates.
How can you maximise the markets?
Timing the trades you have will be key to get the most out of the market. So make sure you are using a pro-active broker like ourseleves to keep you posted of every update. You need someone with your position in mind to assist with the trade. Here we also offer aware winning exchange rates which continually beat that of the price offered from the bank and other currency brokers. I would urge anyone with a currency need
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Thank you.
A new year and a new look for Pound Sterling Forecast – What has happened while we have been away?? (Daniel Wright)
Well as expected the Fiscal cliff episode did go down to the wire and will now probably still be spoken about for a while before we hear the end of it – What did it do to the currency markets?
Essentially it increased global attitude to risk (this was shown in the sharp rise in share prices today) which also led to investors pulling out of the ‘safer haven’ of the Dollar and pushing funds into the riskier currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollar.
With this we saw a fairly sharp drop in the value of the Dollar and Swiss Franc making them cheaper to buy and a surge in strength for both the AUD and NZD. The Sterling/Euro pairing has spent the day not really knowing which way to head jumping between the mid 1.23s down to the late 1.22s over the course of the day.
In this current market you either have to have an eye on the rate all the time or you need someone to do this job for you, as the cost of your purchase can change sharply in a matter of minutes and you may get a nasty surprise when you come to purchase or sell your chosen currency.
We can help you with this, a large part of our service includes monitoring the markets on your behalf and we have a range of tools to protect you from adverse market movements such as stop loss and limit orders – Feel free to get in touch and ask how these work , they aren’t as daunting as they may sound!
If you would like an experienced currency broker on your side for any upcoming purchases either large or small for a private individual or a company then feel free to contact me directly by emailing me on djw@currencies.co.uk or by filling in the enquiry form on this page – I will personally get back to every email I receive and please do not think that we are too big for any of you – We are more than happy to help whatever your situation but we do not deal in travel money or cash.
We also have a mailing list on this page so feel free to fill in your email address and you will get my weekly currency updates.
Personally I feel the U.K may see some fairly good data releases this month so the Pound could be in for a good run – However as always the on-going European crisis and Fiscal cliff could easily turn things upside down at any time!
Happy new year to all of my regular readers and I wish you all a fantastic 2013!
Pound Euro fairly flat today – Further drop against U.S Dollar and a welcome climb against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand
The Pound has had a mixed day of trading so far staying fairly flat against the Euro during a week of gains, dropping away against the Dollar as investors plunge back into safer havens.
We also have seen fairly good gains against the Australian Dollar following poor unemployment figures overnight and the prospect of seeing poor GDP figures for China tomorrow, which may lead to a great end to the week for those in the process of emigrating either currently or in the near future.
The Pound has once again had a poor run against the so called ‘riskier currencies’ such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand and could really do with making a fightback, tomorrow hopefully may be the catalyst for this. Personally I feel we aren’t far away from another front page European ‘crisis’ subject and that alone may push these currency pairings back in the right direction again as half the reason we have been held back is due to the fact that although all has far from gone quiet on the European crisis front there is a little bit of certainty surrounding the situation.
Global certainty tends to strengthen the riskier currencies and can weaken the Dollar so another big spanner thrown in the works surrounding the European situation could lead to further Dollar strength and a buying opportunity for those with an interest in AUD, NZD and CAD.
We don’t only pride ourselves on a great exchange rate but also a really high level of service too, which you may find you aren’t getting to a high enough standard at present.
I deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from one thousand Pounds to multi million Pound transactions for both private clients and corporate clients… We have a regular payments facility too which is free and can assist anyone with smaller payments to Europe.
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A victory for the Euro as Spanish banks are sured up Sterling Euro forecast – what will happen?
It does indeed look like for the time being we are not going to head through 1.25 and stay up there as banks in Spain were helped out yesterday with up to 100 Billion Euros due to be lent to Madrid.
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has hailed a decision by eurozone finance ministers to help Spain shore up its
struggling banks as a victory for the European common currency.
“It was the credibility of the euro that won,” he told reporters. See the full article here on the BBC
On Saturday, the eurozone ministers agreed to lend Madrid up to 100bn euros ($125bn; £80bn) to help banks hit by bad property loans.
This once again as I have said on the site for a couple of years now will not in my opinion make the problem completely go away, merely stem it for a while until we see the bigger problems blow up at some point in the future. It is a consistent pattern of huge problems, bail outs, summits and just a rusty old merry go round that at some point will grind to a nasty halt.
Take for example the latest money allocated to Spain… In March alone the banks in Spain had 66 Billion Euros taken out of them – The highest since records began as people panic about just how safe their money is… If they are being lent only 100 Billion Euros surely in a few months time they will need more and how deep are the pockets of the IMF and the ECB?
This has and will present a great chance to sell Euros or lock into a forward contract if you have a pending property sale overseas or your business is due multiple payments in Euros over the year as personally I think it will only be a matter of time before the Euro becomes troubled again… It might be weeks or it could be months though as the Eurozone have been and continue to be very good at making out things aren’t as bad as I feel they actually are.
If you have a currency requirement involving buying or selling any major currency for a bank to bank transfer (not cash or holiday money) then feel free to get in touch with me directly by emailing me djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to help you get the best exchange rates either for your personal situation or for your business should you have corporate requirments.
European Agreement and how will it effect exchange rates?
“If you are in the process of a large currency
transaction in this current market then do be aware holding out is not for the
feint hearted – It is going to be a rocky ride out there so get belted up!”
Market Summary
|
Currency |
% change over FridH/L |
Difference in £200,000 |
|
GBPEUR |
0.68% |
EUR 1100 |
|
GBPUSD |
0.85 |
USD 2640 |
|
GBPCHF |
1.35% |
CHF 3880 |
European
Agreement takes shape
A historic agreement was finally put in place on Friday revolving
around deeper economic integration for EU countries. However, Britain (The
third largest economy In Europe) at present has refused to be involved, with
David Cameron feeling that concessions were just not there for the U.K
regarding financial regulations.
It could now take at least three months for these agreements to
fully take shape, as there are many loseable referendums along the way for the
26 countries involved.
This all leads to an interesting few weeks before Christmas,
reports in the Sunday papers yesterday suggested Nick Clegg is not happy with
the decision of Cameron, which indeed places further pressure on the coalition
– with political stability being a factor for currency strength, a break up or
even growing speculation of it may be very damaging for the Pound.
Also, over half of trade for the U.K goes through these countries,
and there is now the risk that the U.K could drift apart from the continental
mainland and relations both politically and in trade could slow down. Again,
whilst it is unquestionable that the Euro Zone has huge problems, the U.K has
many large ones of its own, and our while our Prime minister is busy at
countless meetings surrounding fixing the Euro – who is dealing with our
problems?
Usually, we put our predictions in our reports however with the
various complications that could be thrown into the hat this week in all
honesty I don’t know where GBP-EUR
will end up… David Cameron doesn’t know, Angela Merkel doesn’t know and with
something unprecedented like this I don’t believe anyone knows.
Instead, I will lay out the options available to you in order to
protect yourself should something really hit the fan in the next few days.
Option
1 – With the positive movement for
Sterling in the past week or so against the Euro, those looking to buy Euros could book out a forward contract, this is whereby you
can lock into a rate of exchange with us for up to two years with just a small
deposit. At the risk of sounding like a game show host, it could be a great
idea to lock in half of the currency you require and ‘bank’ the current rate if
current rates are above budget. For people due to receive Euros this contract
option could be the protection you have been longing for too, as we can take a
Sterling based deposit should you not have Euros in your coffers.
Option 2 – Should you not really wish to
jump in with two feet and lock in to a rate, yet wish to be protected if there
is a bug turn for the worse then a stop-loss
order may be ideal. You essentially can decide on a buying price you would not
be happy to go below, and if we see a sudden drop in rates, your currency is
automatically bought out at that level – even if it is at 4am on a Saturday…
This saves the busier of you from watching markets 24/7 yet keeps you
protected, we also offer a limit order which works the other way should there
be a rate you wish to achieve. Both of these orders can be cancelled or amended
at any time if not filled and do not cost you a penny to put in place. Contact
me by filling in the form on the right hand side of this page today to discuss
these in more detail.
Dollar to
benefit from all of this? Swiss devalue again?
Many analysts believe the big winner from all of this may now be the USD. In times
of uncertainty historically investors have ran to the perceived ‘safer haven’
of the USD, with gold being seen as a safe bet also being priced in USD, demand
for the currency increases and therefore so does its value.
If political matters in the U.K continue to take the headlines
along with riots, static interest rates and ever decreasing growth forecasts
then as an investor, although the States has problems of its own I know where I
would put my money, it would not surprise me now to see GBP-USD dip below 1.50
in the early part of 2012.
For the past few years the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen had taken
away some demand for the USD in uncertain times, with the Swiss Franc having
increased in value by over 50% during this global crisis at its peak. Since
then, both the Swiss and Japanese have moved to devalue their currency
artificially as the strength was starting to seriously impact their exports, in
fact there are growing rumours that the Swiss may devalue again and with their
interest rate decision due on Thursday, if you have Swiss francs to sell then I
would seriously consider the options mentioned earlier in this report, a second
devaluing could push GBP-CHF well above 1.55.
The Federal Reserve (US) Interest rate decision is also due on
Tuesday evening and the U.S have thrown a spanner into the works in the past so
for those with a pending Dollar interest make sure we are aware, fill in the form on the right hand side of this page and I will be happy to guide you throughout the process.
Data out today
A quiet day data wise today but I’m sure the markets will have plenty to react to
with the European announcements, which will probably be the talking point of
the week (yet again). Make sure your Christmas isn’t spent watching exchange
rates and get your protection in place, or at least let us be your eyes and
ears on the market for you – contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like assistance or have any questions or queries
surrounding this report – Thanks for reading.
Super Mario starts off with a bang and cuts European interest rate at decision to 1.25%
Breaking news, The European Central bank have cut interest rates to 1.25% which has led to a little Euro weakness… All eyes on the press conference starting shortly!!
European interest rate decision today….. Can we expect fireworks just in time for 5th November??
Today sees the release of the European Central Bank interest rate decision – New head of the ECB (not jealous of his new job) Mario Draghi has quite a decision on his hands. There have been calls for an interest rate cut in the Eurozone however will he be willing to enter his new position with a bang or will he be looking to get his feet under the table before any big decisions are made?
Personally I feel we have about a 30% chance of him doing so, which should lead to the Euro getting even weaker – however that other 70% option could easily end up with the Euro gaining back some strength as investors may have already speculated that there may be a minor cut.
We still have the continuing Greek crisis which will no doubt still be unfolding and still lead to swings upon releases throughout the day so you certainly cannot rule out a spanner in the works there!
Markets are indeed all over the place at present and it is key you have an experienced currency broker on your side when dealing with any large currency transactions as i’m afraid hope will not move the markets. I am happy to deal with any regular readers that have bank to bank transfers of anything from £5000 up to multi million pound transactions for corporate clients. I can be your eyes and ears on the market and help you develpop a strategy that may save you £1000s.
I cannot directly advise you but it is certainly worth having assistance and a personal opinion of someone that has been in the market for years. If you would like to join our 41,000 satisfied clients then please open a free, no obligation trading facility by clicking here and I will be more than happy to personally give you a call to discuss your requirements. Please ensure you place my name (Daniel Wright) as your point of contact.
European Summit… Latest news
No major news from the summit of all summits so far… the latest being that Merkel has now mentioned she is looking at progress during this one and not an end result – Looks like we may need another summit on the summit!
Leaders are just arriving now for the big one…. personally I would be surprised to see major releases tonight as I feel they do not have and will not have a final answer that will be anywhere near good enough for the markets however this certainly does not guarantee that they will surprise us.
If i had to stick my neck out and make a prediction then I feel they will partially announce information this evening and follow up with the real nitty gritty in the next few days.
This will however lead to a nervous market throughout the week, and this does not only effect the Euro but all currencies worldwide.
Global uncertainty leads to investors becoming wary on risk, this in turn can mean that they seek a safe haven, the Dollar in fact has strengthened by over a cent in the past hour which seems to me that people do expect a muddled announcement later and risk aversion to be high.
No major movements from the AUD and NZD so far, I think the next 48 hours is key no matter what currency requirement you may have so make sure you are alert and ready to act fast should you need to as a lot of money can be mde and lost in situations such as this, you can use tools such as limit orders, stop losses and forward contracts.
If you would like more information on how these work or have a pending currency transaction be it buying or selling the Pound then do feel free to contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help.
