Tag Archives: exchange rate

Will sterling rise or fall on the Supreme Court decision?

The pound is fairly stable and range bound at present as markets keenly await the next direction of the Brexit. We are all eagerly awaiting the next bits of news over the Supreme Court decision and it is this which will determine the more immediate direction on the currency pairing. If you have a transfer to consider involving sterling understanding what is happening and being ready to react is the best way to capitalise on this news. At the moment we do not know when the decision will be released and this is keeping the market nervously on its toes.

Essentially upholding the previous High Court decision should see the pound rally but I think the gains will be limited. My personal expectation is for this to lead to sterling gaining up to 2% against its counterparts. If the decision goes for the government sterling will fall because I believe markets have very much priced in ‘good news’ that the previous decision would be upheld. If it falls in this scenario sterling could lose up to 4% as it becomes apparent a hard Brexit is more likely again. Sterling might retest the kind of levels we saw back in October last year.

GBPEUR Focus

After the Supreme Court decision attention will still remain on the Brexit and any good news for sterling will be shortlived in my opinion. There will still be many unanswered questions and as the resignation of Sir Ivan rogers, the UK’s Ambassador to the EU shows there is scope for further political casualties. Attention towards the end of the quarter will focus on the likelihood of Theresa May triggering Article 50 plus the Dutch and French elections. I expect GBPEUR could trade between 1.12 – 1.23 depending on the various outcomes here. If you wish to trade at these levels and wish to be kept informed of developments please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPUSD Focus

The big news on the US dollar is the likelihood of further interest rate rises. A strong jobs report has given rise to expectation we could see further interest rate hikes soon and GBPUSD has dipped. I expect GBPUSD to trade between 1.14 and 1.25 in the coming weeks. As you can see I feel the US dollar will be strengthening.

If you have a currency transfer involving sterling and wish to optimise your position with some expert insight and information please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I work as a currency specialist and have appeared on BBC News discussing Brexit and the impact on the currency markets. I would be very happy to hear from you and answer any questions and help you with your situation.

Thank you for reading, I hope to hear from you soon.

Will the pound rise or fall on the US election?

Sterling has risen as investors get excited over the potential for the UK to avoid a hard Brexit. Investors have become very fearful of the full implications of a hard Brexit. Essentially access to the single market is a key factor in the strength and attractiveness of the UK economy. The rates for the pound have now increased as this prospect becomes shaky but will it last? If you have a transfer to make in the future there is all the important US election next week and it could easily be the end of this current surge in sterling’s value.

The High Court have ruled that the UK government will have to seek parliamentary approval to invoke Article 50 the legal mechanism to trigger Brexit. The court ruled that Theresa May must go to the House of Commons and Lords to get a rubber stamp of her plans. This means that whilst Brexit is still likely to happen the Government might be forced to water down the proposals. All in what this means is much more uncertainty for the pound!

Next week is the US election and I expect the pound will fall further eroding these excellent gains. Typically a currency will strengthen once an election is over as you get certainty of the situation. In this case the US dollar may rise and this will weaken the pound. Sterling’s most heavily traded currency pairing is GBPUSD so if GBPUSD drops lows because the US dollar is rising it will weigh the pound down against other currencies.

This market is still very tough to call but sterling is not out of the woods with the latest UK political developments. If you are considering a currency transfer in the future you may benefit from the experience of a currency specialist who can keep you up to date with the market and all of your options. I have worked here for almost ten years and lent my comments and insight to newpapers and also BBC News.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk or filling in the form below.

Will the Pound continue to fall this year, and what to look out for tomorrow (Joseph Wright)

It’s been an interesting couple of days for Sterling exchange rates as the currency has been undecided on its general direction of movement.

At the time of writing the Pound is actually down on the day against all major currency pairs such as the US Dollar, Euro and the Australian Dollar. Although throughout today’s trading session Sterling has spiked upward at times, offering clients the chance to book their trades whilst the exchange rate was quite considerably higher than it’s lowest point throughout the day.

The reason for the buoyancy towards the Pound this morning and at times throughout the day, is most likely down to the better than expected inflation figures yesterday which demonstrated a 1% gain in inflation over the past year, which is currently a healthy level although that could change if it gets out of hand due to the rapidly weakening Pound.

It’s on days like today whereby our clients benefit from the service we provide, as the monetary difference between converting currency at the bottom of the day’s exchange rate range, compared with the top of the day’s range can be huge when converting large amounts of currency.

We’re already in a position to improve substantially on the exchange rates offered by high street banks, but with our proactive service we’re able to often maximize our clients exchanges to their benefit.

There are a number of analysts from major institutions offering forecasts for the GBP/EUR pair of parity, which means they’re expecting the Pound to fall another 9% or so between now and in many cases, the end of next year. HSBC are perhaps the most prominent entity to make such a claim, so feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss your options regarding this potential fall as there are methods of protecting yourself against such a fall.

Tomorrow is expected to be a busy day for exchange rates due to the raft of economic data releases, with the European Central Bank’s Interest Rate Decision likely to be the most prominent. Should there be a change to the 0% figure expected tomorrow by analysts, I would expect to see some substantial movement within exchange rates involving the Euro as well as many other pairs who’s performance is interconnected with the ECB’s monetary policy.

The ECB’s release is at 12.45pm which gives you plenty of time to get in touch beforehand should you wish. You can call me (Joseph) directly on 01494 787 478 if you wish to regarding the news release and our service. 

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

When will we see Sterling bounce back? (Daniel Johnson)

Pound Forecast

The media have been very negative following the electorate’s decision to leave the EU. At some points the fear mongering has been overbearing. However the damage has now been done and now it is time to keep calm and carry on. Although poor UK data is filtering through, I think Sterling is chronically undervalued at present and although there may be further falls the pound short term, I think the Pound will gain strength against all major currencies medium to long term. A pound rally will not be quick, trade negotiations will be long and arduous. It is estimated over two thousand skilled negotiators will be needed to get all the deals sewn up. Australia is one of the most forthcoming countries with regards to getting trade deals in place and it is estimated that will take two-and-a-half years.  So although I think the pound will recover, but do not expect 1.30 anytime soon on GBP/EUR.

The US rate decision was a non-event as predicted , despite the FED meant to be acting as a separate entity to the government I can’t help but think the election influenced the decision on  a rate hike. If Trump gets in expect USD to lose value due to his radical ideas regarding trade deals and immigration.

If  you have a currency requirement it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. Should you find our information useful and you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

 

Has the pound bottomed out yet?

Yesterday’s news of the interest rate cut was not wholly unexpected but the measures including 50bn of QE and a new ‘Term Funding Scheme’ were not priced in helping contribute to GBP weakness. So is this the end or the beginning of measures by the Bank of England and where will sterling head next?

Even in yesterday’s meeting the BoE were signalling further cuts and this indicates to me sterling could have further to fall. The pound is essentially a barometer of the health of the UK and with all the business and consumer survey’s so far pointing towards a decline it seems like the data will in the short term only get worse. IHS Markit which surveys the recruitment and employment Industry has reported today a two month decline in the number of people finding a permanent job. If Unemployment is shown to be going up over the next few months then sterling will undoubtedly come under further pressure. September 15th is the next Bank of England meeting and we could easily see another interest rate cut then. If you are considering any kind of transaction buying or selling the pound and wish to be kept informed and secure a better rate of exchange why not get in touch with me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. Any information is completely free of charge and at no obligation, please note I can only offer information for clients moving over£10,000 on a bank to bank transfer eg business and overseas property buyers and sellers.

Although it is difficult to be overly optimistic at present we do appear to have avoided the worst case scenarios so far. Sterling is still trading against the Euro in the high teens and remains above 1.30 on GBPUSD. Many of the big banks predicted Brexit would lead to GBPUSD hitting 1.20 and parity or 1 for 1 on GBPEUR. We are by no means out of the woods but the UK does now have a new PM and a base to work from in order to secure Brexit. As we learn of further Brexit news the pound could rise but with Article 50 unlikely to be invoked until 2017 there is lots of time for sterling to languish and markets to digest the situation.

Generally speaking if you are buying a foreign currency with the pound moving sooner rather than later and trading on any spikes is probably the safest bet to avoid further disappointment. If you have a transfer you are debating please contact me to learn more. This site is primarily to provide market news but we can help save you money on your currency exchanges too. I have many clients with currency accounts with some of the UK’s top currency brokerages and they always come back to me because I can undercut other company exchange rates. Any information from me is completely free of charge and at no obligation, I am sure I can make it worth a quick email. Please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

Will an Interest Rate cut weaken Sterling exchange rates this week? (Joseph Wright)

It’s looking highly likely that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will cut the UK base rate this Thursday. The likely outcome will be a cut of 25 basis points down from 0.5% to 0.25% and I think that currency markets have already begun pricing in this drop as we’ve seen the Pound soften over the past few trading sessions with GBP/EUR dropping down into the 1.17’s yesterday for the first time in almost 3 weeks.

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England did allude to a rate cut in the immediate aftermath of the ‘Brexit’ in order to mitigate the negative effects to the UK economy created by leaving the European Union, and then yesterday weak Manufacturing Data out of the UK added further fuel to the fire for a base rate cut this week.

Interest Rate cuts usually weaken the underlying currency so it’s important that anyone either buying or selling the Pound at the moment is aware of this likely move.

In terms of the Pound and its likely future movements, I’m not expecting a massive drop if the rate is cut because it’s expected, but I am expecting the Pound to weaken slightly in the lead up to Thursday and I think as the year goes on we could see the Pound fall further as economic news released paints a gloomy view of the UK’s economy now that the UK has left the EU, and uncertainty surrounds the UK economy.

Those with a currency requirement whereby they need to convert Pounds into another foreign currency may wish to consider making their conversion sooner as opposed to later, as should the UK economy continue to disappoint post ‘Brexit’ I think we could see the Pound soften quite a lot further.

If you would like to discuss the timing of an upcoming currency requirement you have, feel free to get in contact with me (Joe) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call on 01494 787 478 and ask reception for Joe. 

Pound spikes upward on hopes of a ‘Soft Brexit’, although Thursday could see another sell-off (Joseph Wright)

Both UK and European equity markets along with the Pound were substantially boosted today, as investors welcomed the removal of uncertainty from the Conservative Party’s leadership contest.

Yesterday it was announced that Theresa May will be the UK’s Prime Minister in-waiting, giving GBP exchange rates a double boost. Political uncertainty almost always weighs negatively on the country in questions currency, so now that we’re aware of who will be leading the country in the period of separation from the EU, the future is looking a lot more certain and currency markets have welcomed the news.

Additionally, Theresa May was a ‘Remainer’ in the lead up to the UK’s EU Referendum. This is significant because markets had received the news of the UK’s shock decision to leave the EU badly, with GBP falling to a 31 year low against the US Dollar. With Theresa May’s public support for the EU in the past many investors are considering her leadership throughout the next couple of years to benefit the UK economy, with the separation of the UK from the EU to remain amicable.

The Pound has been boosted by news of a so called ‘Soft Brexit’ with GBP/EUR and GBP/USD both up over 2% today, but that could suddenly change this Thursday.

During the fallout from the ‘Brexit’ the governor of the Bank of England alluded to the possibility of a further Interest Rate cut down from 0.5% to 0.25%. Should this occur, and it could be a soon as the Monetary Policy Committee’s next meeting on Thursday, then I expect the Pound to fall against most if not all major currency pairs, perhaps wiping out all of yesterday and today’s gains.

Those looking to remove that risk from the market may wish to consider carrying out any planned currency exchanges they have to make, as Thursday could be a volatile day for trading and there’s a chance GBP may fall once again due to the aforementioned reason.

If you would like to discuss your currency exchange with me, and would like to consider taking advantage of award winning exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading regulated currency brokerages as well as help with the timing, feel free to email me directly ideally with a telephone number on jxw@currencies.co.uk with an outline of your requirement. You can also call me directly on 01494 787 478, just ask one of the reception team for Joe.

 

 

 

Anticipated EU Referendum outcome to continue to drive GBP exchange rates (Joseph Wright)

This time next week we’ll know the outcome of the EU Referendum, and I think it’s fair to say that we can expect a bumpy ride for Sterling exchange rates between now and then.

The downward pressure on the Pound would seem to have eased somewhat over the past few days, and this could be due to the lack of campaigning from either the ‘leave’ or ‘remain’ camps after the tragic death of politician Jo Cox. Additionally, yesterday the Bank of England’s Interest Rate decision went largely unnoticed which was unsurprising. It would be a huge shock to have seen the BoE make a change so close to the vote especially after the Fed Reserve over in the US has made us aware that ‘Brexit’ uncertainty has been one of the main reasons that there’s been no changes to US Interest Rates recently.

The quiet couple of days for the Pound have seen it climb slightly, and at the time of writing the central level is 1.2685 which is comfortably above the average of roughly around 1.25 over the past 10 years.

From a personal standpoint I believe the Pound is overvalued if only slightly. I’m surprised to see the central level above 1.25 this close to the Referendum and I think anyone selling Pounds in order to purchase Euro’s can currently do so at favourable levels considering the monumental event next week.

Despite the relatively quiet couple of days we are seeing sharp movements of sudden whole cent gains or losses at times during the day, and I think we can expect to see an increase in volatility levels next week.

If you have an upcoming currency exchange to make involving the Pound, feel free to get in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call in on 01494 787 478 and ask reception for Joe.

Sterling exchange rates are struggling for direction, where next for the Pound? (Joseph Wright)

After beginning the week in downtrodden fashion, Sterling exchange rates today have posted some surprising gains once again with the GBP/EUR rate almost hitting 1.29, and GBP/USD trading as high as 1.4655.

I don’t think many would have expected these levels on Monday morning when Sterling was being heavily sold off. The bad start to the week was due to prominent ‘Brexit’ based polls suggesting that the ‘Brexiteers’ have been gaining support as of late, and this uncertainty weighed on the value of the Pound like it has done for much of this year.

Today’s boost was off the back of the latest Halifax HPI figures coming out better than expected, and they demonstrated an increase in house prices of 0.6% which boosted sentiment towards the Pound, driving up it’s value.

This positive sentiment surrounding the Pound today over-road a number of positives for the Euro recently. Firstly Eurozone GDP was recently revised upwards, and yesterday US Fed Reserve Chairlady gave a dovish sounding speech which boosted sentiment towards the Euro.

These examples just highlight the importance the upcoming EU Referendum has and how it’s driving GBP exchange rates at the moment. I expect the relationship between Sterling and the other major currencies to continue to be driven by EU voting (and betting) patterns.

Personally I’m expecting to see further headwinds in the lead up to the Referendum and I personally believe that the Pound is currently overvalued against both the Euro and the US Dollar, and I think we’ll see weaker levels for Sterling exchange rates on the day of the Referendum. 

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound and would like to get a better exchange rate than what your bank will offer, feel free to contact me (Joseph) on jxw@currencies.co.uk or call in and ask for me on 01494 787 478. I’m here to help you ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make the transfer, and help you benefit from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages.

What can we expect this week for the pound? (Jonathan Watson)

Jonathan speaking on BBC NEWS 24 in February

Jonathan speaking on BBC NEWS 24 in February

Great British Pound (GBP)

Important news this week for sterling is  Unemployment data on Wednesday which is expected to remain stable at 5.1%, this has been one of the key strengths of the UK economy, if the predicted rise in average earnings from 2.1 – 2.3% rings true sterling could be in for a good day on Wednesday! Thursday is Retail Sales figures which are always a volatile release and can impact markets, if you don’t see the sterling move you are looking for on Wednesday then this could be the one to watch.

In summary sterling should remain in a better position this week, the pound has slipped in recent weeks but found some form last week with better than expected Inflation data and better news concerning the government. David Cameron’s dreadful previous week was recovered from the worst points and a particular damning report by the Treasury on the Brexit has reconfirmed the governments position potentially further aiding the Remain camp. I expect this report and better UK data to help give the pound a lift by the end of the week but a lift that will be rather fragile when we (and financial markets) take into consideration the Referendum only 9 weeks away!

EURO (EUR)

A fairly tame start to the week with some Construction and Current Account figures gives way to a busy end of the week as Friday sees Manufacturing and Services data for the Eurozone. Thursday is the key date for the Euro however as we have the European Central Bank decision and Monetary Policy Statement. The last meeting saw almost 4 cents movement in the afternoon and whilst I don’t expect quite the volatility this is usually a volatile time as markets digest Mario Draghi’s assessment of the Eurozone. Following the ECB bazooka of low interest rates and QE last month Inflation has risen which should give Mario Draghi cause for cheer and possibly help the Euro rise.

In Summary the Euro looks set to remain strong but might lose some ground to a stronger pound on Wednesday. Thursday is the key date so if you need to buy Euros moving before Thursday might be sensible, GBPEUR buyers have received almost 3 cents improvements from the lows of April which given the uncertainty ahead should not in my opinion be dismissed too easily.

United States Dollar (USD)

This week is a range of mid tier releases in the US focusing on Housing Starts (Tuesday), Home Sales data (Wednesday) and Jobless Claims (Thursday). The dollar had weakened on the news the Fed were resigned to just the two rate hikes this year but has now found traction again. Two hikes is better than none and with the UK stagnating and the Eurozone still focused on ‘easing’ measures the dollar is still top of the class.

In summary there remains a good chance that the dollar will strengthen further against the pound longer term but this is sterling’s week. If you need to buy dollars with the pound taking advantage of any spike this week is I believe the best way forward.

Do you have a currency transaction to consider involving the pound? If so this week could see a return to favour which given the Referendum ahead is I believe something well worth taking advantage of! For more information on events to be aware of surrounding your currency transaction please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk