Tag Archives: exchange rates
Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report, EU GDP figures and the Australian Budget. Busy week on the currency markets! (Mike Vaughan)
Sterling started the week poorly against a number of currencies falling against the Euro and US dollar but continuing its recent resurgence against the Australian dollar. This week there is plenty of data to keep anyone with a keen eye on the money markets with some of the notable data sets as follow:
- Today 09:30 BST - Australia will release its yearly budget. This will be keenly viewed as the Australian government faces questions about its handling of the economy ahead of elections later this year. With the economy having been affected by weaker global forecasts and in particular from China, for which the Australian economy is heaviliy reliant, the outcome of the budget could be very interesting. Some analysts say that while the mining sector has been the driving force behind Australia’s steady economic expansion, other parts of the economy have stagnated or grown much less quickly. A key reason has been the strength of the AUD and the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) have been open in highlighting their concerns and may act to devalue the dollar, potentially good news for those buying dollars.
- Wednesday 10:00 BST- anyone with an interest in the Euro should watch out for EU GDP figures. Figures are expected to stay at -0.9% but any deviation from the expected figure and watch out for volatility on Euro exchange rates.
- Wednesday 09:30 BST – UK unemployment figures expected to stay at 7.9%
- Wednesday 10:30 BST – Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report and Mervyn King press conference. The BofE publishes a report of the detailed economic analysis and inflation projections on which the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions, and presents an assessment of the prospects for UK inflation over the following two years. Watch out for any clues with regards to QE, I personally believe the Bank will stay firm on its current p[olicies until the new governor Mark Carney takes over from Mervyn King in July.
- Friday 00:45 BST – Japan GDP release, expected to show an increase from a flat 0% to 0.7%.
- Friday 13:30 BST - to finish off the week on Friday we have inflation figures and unemployment data from the US at 13:30 BST.
As you can see we have plenty of data released for the rest of the week. To be kept up to date with the impact these data sets may have for your individual requirement then please contact me and I will happily run though my forecasts and run through the various contracts we can offer to help maximise your currency exchange. I am very confident I can help achieve a better rate than your current provider. Please call the office on +44 (0)1494 787478 or email me (Mike) with a brief overview of your requirement and I will gladly contact you to help with your money exchange. I can be reached at mgv@currencies.co.uk
GBPEUR rates, ECB interest rate dropped, when to buy (Steve Eakins)
GBPEUR rates climbed again this week following the news and commentary that the European Central Bank are open to lowering their interest rates in the coming months. Mario Draghi stated that he was open to negative interest rates for over night holding of funds for banks which created the negative tone for the euro, giving buyers the chance to buy euros at the near high experienced last week of a 4 month high. SPIKES do not hang around for long and it is these kind of opportunities that have to be taken to get the best price; after all we only know it was the highest point on the market once it starts to fall again.
If you would like SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS register your interest via email at hse@currencies.co.uk with your contact details, currency pair, volume and information to do with the availability of funds and time frames.
So what next for GBPEUR rates? When to buy euros?
Well it is safe to say that recent news for the pound has been very positive in comparison to the negative outlook over the last few months, which has attributed to why we are at these highs however it will be data to come that will drive levels in the future.
Monday is a bank holiday for the UK but that is not to say that markets will not move. The Europeans release their Retail Figures which are expected to fall and a further speech from Mario Draghi is also expected. His tone this week has been fairly negative for the euro so buyers may wish to wait till next week to make their move. Sellers may however want to move before this and contact us today – don’t be scared to ask for a quote – email hse@currencies.co.uk with your details.
The biggest news for next week in my opinion is the Bank of England Interest rate decision on Thursday. Over the last few months there has been a building impression that more QE could be seen form the bank but we are yet to see it. If we were to see this be announced I would expect rates to drop as the value of the pound falls, by perhaps as much as 1.5 cents adding a £1,600 to a €150,000 purchase. I however think that QE is unlikely to be announced until next month.
If you want to discuss how the next week could affect your currency exposure then speak to the experts by contacting us to go through it more personally. Either call and ask for myself Steve Eakins or email me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk
Sterling at a three month high against the Euro, Aussie and US dollar (Mike Vaughan)
As expected the European Central Bank cut its base rate to a record low of 0.5% from 0.75% earlier today pushing GBP/EUR close to 1.19 for the first time in nearly three months, as Mario Dragji (head of the ECB) indicated he would consider cutting rates further and could not rule out negative interest rates. The move for sterling has been a welcome relief for many and showing little sign of slowing, in fact the pound has now gained 4.3% against the single currency since its low in mid March and a very similar trend has been experienced against a number of major currencies.
Moves against the greenback and Aussie have been even more substantial seeing a shift of 4.5% since mid March against the US dollar and 5.2% against the Australian Dollar in the last month. This makes a significant difference on your money exchange and may represent a strong buy opportunity for some, however I guess the question for many is will this last?
For me I believe this could be the start of a correction for the pound, certainly against the Euro and Australian Dollar but I feel the US dollar is less clear and will remain range bound between 1.53-1.55. Those buying Euros and AUD may get more from the market and I would look for levels to head towards 1.20 for GBP/EUR and possibly 1.55 for GBP/AUD. AUD buyers should watch out for the next RBA meeting (Reserve Bank of Australia) scheduled for Tuesday next week, should the RBA Australia cut interest rates (as some analysts are predicting) we could see a further shift for GBP/AUD, I feel the RBA may also be considering further rate cuts later this year and would expect to see more value for AUD buyers in the coming weeks, particularly should China show further signs of an economic slowdown.
For those looking to buy the US dollar I would certainly consider 1.55 to be viewed as good value and feel this has the potential to move back towards 1.50, although data of late from the US has been weaker than many expected which has pushed cable close to 1.56. Tomorrow watch out of US non-farm payroll figures that are expected to show a strong increase from last month, something again that could lend support to the dollar in tomorrows afternoon session. Much of the dollars moves will come down to perceived appetite for risk and I think with the market still so jittery losses for the dollar will slow and would expect levels to shift back in the dollars favour, I would expect US dollar sellers to get more value in the coming weeks.
Should you have an upcoming trade to arrange and you would like to discuss the market in more detail and how we can help you achieve a competitive commercial rate of exchange then please get in touch. We are here to help. Please email with your particular currency requirement and I will happily get in contact to discuss your options to help you maximise your trade. Email mgv@currencies.co.uk
GBPEUR rates wobble but will an interest rate change GBPEUR forecasts (STEVE EAKINS)
Following the UK avoiding a recession late last week rates spiked up to the highest seen since the end of January. By definition a SPIKE does not last for long and these levels were slowly taken away through Monday and Tuesday trading. Many clients managed to benefit of these spikes following their registration to the SPIKE NOTIFICATION service here. (If this is of interest simply send your contact and transfer details to hse@currencies.co.uk)
But what next for GBPEUR rates of exchange?
Well the next focus point is the European interest rate decision which is released on Thursday afternoon. There is a view that rates may be lowered following pressure from countries trying to balance their debt burdens, Germany’s economy becoming sluggish and inflation falling across the single currency. There are two views in the market as to what would happen if they were cut from the current record low of 0.75% to 0.5%. Firstly traditionally when an interest rate is cut drops investors’ appetite so there is less demand and therefore weakens that currency. The second is that as in this case the suggested drop is so small, it could be seen as a proactive move and actually drive investment making the euro more expensive to buy.
I think the latter is more probably personally, however I am also leaning towards them not actually lowering rates this week. Either way the release will be key for ANYONE with a currency transfer to make as the Governor of the European Central Bank will be taking questions on the matter driving rates over the press conference so make sure you are close to a computer or have a broker actively keeping an eye on your situation as the news breaks. To put this event into contents it could move the markets by upwards of 1.5 cents adding £1,700 onto a €150,000 purchase.
If you would like to keep up to date on the event or to talk through how this could affect your currency exposure, speak to the experts. Feel free to get in contact with myself or the team here. My name is Steve Eakins and I am one of the elite traders here. Call on the normal number or email me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk
The most important issue regarding pound sterling rates at present! How to get the best exchanges rates
The pound had been one of the worst performing currencies of 2013 until a few weeks ago when it bounced back from the very worst levels. The answer to the question of is the worst really over will be evidenced next week in the form of GDP data. Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the output or growth in the economy and is a key factor in determining the strength or weakness of sterling.
What strategy should I adopt for buying or selling the pound?
If you are selling a foreign currency to buy pounds and you are keen to take a risk it may be worth waiting until next Thursday as there is an outside chance you could see much better levels by 2 or 3 cents. If you are not keen to risk then I would tee things up a bit sooner as it is probable the pound may become more expensive. Please note if you are considering any exchanges and would like to run through your options please speak to me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
The consensus among commentators seems to be that the UK has avoided the triple dip recession. This would mean that it is likely the pound will strengthen next Thursday. However because this expectation is quite high, if for any reason the data is bad we could see a big fall for the pound. Markets often move ahead of the event too, so it can be argued the pound is stronger lately due to this expectation. It is also true the pound is stronger due to events in Cyprus, money has moved out of Europe and despite all the economic woes for sterling, found its way to the relative safe haven of the UK.
If you are selling pounds to buy another currency then it may be wise to see how the data comes out next Thursday. This is because the pound may strengthen by a cent or so against most currencies. It is impossible to say exactly what will happen so the best way to ensure you don’t lose out unnecessarily is to register an interest with me so I can keep an eye on the movements for you. Rates can move up to one or two cents per day and on big volumes of currency this can become very costly.
If you are weighing up whether or not to sell or buy pounds and hoping for slightly more on the rate, then the outcome of this decision next week is key. You can be made aware of all your options and run through any ideas on what you feel may happen by speaking directly with me on jmw@currencies.co.uk
The authors of site are specialist currency providers who can offer much better rates than the banks and other sources. We also offer assistance with the timing of your exchanges and providing forecasts. Ultimately no one can tell you exactly what will happen, but our expert knowledge of what drives rates and guidance on the processes involved will ensure you make an informed decision.
Please contact me Jonathan Watson personally on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information at no cost or obligation.
I look forward to hearing from you and personally assisting you, thank you
Will the UK avoid recession? The BCC certainly thinks we will…..could the pound get stronger? (Michael Vaughan)
Today has been a slightly strange day as the pound has lost ground against the majority of currencies, and in some cases quite heavily losing over 1% against the New Zealand Dollar, 0.9% against the Australian Dollar, 0.7% versus the US dollar and 0.6% against the Euro. This comes following a much needed Easter break, and although the UK is showing little sign of spring like conditions, could we be seeing the beginnings of an economic recovery to brighten up your day? Certainly the British Chambers of Commerce thinks so. In a report released this morning the BCC indicated that a strong performance by Britain’s service industries during the first three months of the year has kept the economy growing. The BCC’s survey, which included more than 7,000 firms, found that conditions for both the services and manufacturing sectors were improving, but the services sector saw some of the biggest improvements, with strong domestic sales and exports, and with Services accounting for about three-quarters of the UK economy this is certainly positive news.
Following this news from the BCC the Euro zone released their latest unemployment figures showing a record high of 12% and bringing total unemployment to over 19 million. The highest jobless rates were 26.4% in Greece, although this figure was from December, and 26.3% in Spain. This you would think would all lead to a good, positive day for the pound, but we have infact seen the exact opposite. I for one cannot see an exact explanation for the pounds losses however to me this really empasises what a volatile market place this currently is. I do feel this is a s light blip for the pound and would expect levels against the Euro in particular to remain range bound between 1.17-19, I do also feel the overall benefactor of the ongoing Cyprus debacle will be the US dollar as it gains from its historical ‘safe haven’ tag. For this reason look for a move back to 1.50 for GBP/USD and EUR/USD to move towards 1.27.
Should you have any upcoming money transfers to arrange and you have found this blog useful then why not contact us to see what we can do for you? The purpose of the site is to give you independent market views to help you make an informed decision with your currency exchange. By giving yourself as much information as possible it can put you in a far stronger position when attempting to maximise your currency exchange, allowing you to limit your exposure to adverse market movement. Should you wish to find out more about the specialist currency service we provide, whether you are a private or corporate client, then we can help. Please get in touch either on 01494 725353 or by emailing me with a brief description of your individual requirement and I will happily contact you and run though your options. You can reach me direct at mgv@currencies.co.uk
