Tag Archives: exchange rates
UK Prime Minister told Sky last week that she didnt want to keep bots of the EU which confirmed she plans to remove the UK from the single market. The pound has been in a steep decline since. The PM has blamed the press for the pounds demise however I believe if she continues with her tone exchange rates will fall.
She is set to hold another press conference Tuesday, with the agenda simply Brexit. Many leading economists and CEOs of businesses within the UK have warned the PM that she needs to give clear direction in the upcoming weeks. HSBC leading officials have gone one step further and warned the PM that her actions could push the bank to move their headquarters to Paris, which means many jobs would be lost for the UK.
As for UK economic data since the turn of the year, figures have been strong however the pound has declined. It just shows that politics/ Brexit is outweighing economic data releases.
If you have a foreign currency to buy this month I would recommend getting in touch to discuss your options as I expect the pound will fall in value once more after the PMs press conference Tuesday.
When buying or selling the pound you also need to understand the factors that will be impacting the other currency. Feel free to email me the currency pair you are converting (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair and the process of using our company email@example.com.
For the readers reference the company I work for on a daily basis save clients money on currency transfers. If you are planning a transfer and are using your bank or another brokerage, I would reccomend getting in touch for a forecast and at the same time compare of exchange rates. This is free of charge and will take you a few minutes.
What you need to know about Brexit and the impact of Brexit on exchange rates
Throughout 2016 ‘Brexit’ was the main talking point for sterling exchange rates and I expect this trend to continue for at least the next two quarters.
When the UK public voted out of the European Union the consensus was that the UK would also be leaving the single market.
However the High Court ruled UK Prime Minister Theresa May does not have the power to invoke Article50 and therefore leave the single market.
The Prime Minister disagreed with the High Court ruling and last month took her case to the Supreme Court in hope that the decision will be overturned. The verdict is set to be released some point this month.
It’s important to realise Brexit is complex, however if you are buying or selling pounds in the upcoming months we have seen trends over the last 7 months that should help your decision making.
When the UK voted out of the EU in June and as a country we were under the impression we would exit the single market GBPEUR and GBPUSD plummeted to lows of 1.10 and 1.2190.
As soon as the High Court ruled that an exit from the single market will occur once Theresa May has approval from Government (very unlikely this would materialise) GBPEUR and GBPUSD increased to highs of 1.2015 and 1.2750.
Looking ahead to the Supreme Court decision this month, I believe there are two outcomes to exchange rates once we hear the verdict.
If the Supreme Court rule in favour of the High Court an exit from the single market becomes unlikely and therefore the pound makes gains against all of the major currencies.
If the Supreme Court overturn the High Court an exit from the single market could occur as early as March and therefore the pound plummets to lows we saw only 3 months ago.
How can I help you?
The currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients rates of exchange that they won’t be able to achieve by using their own bank.
Property purchases and sales are my area of expertise, therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale abroad, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and to get an understanding of how we can save you as much money as possible.
When purchasing currency it’s crucial to analyse both the currencies you will be trading, as your 2nd currency will also have an impact on the pair.
Feel free to email me the currency pair you are converting (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair and the process of using our company firstname.lastname@example.org.
** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **
Since the start of November GBPEUR central exchange rates have increased from 1.1060 to 1.1950. Therefore a €200,000 purchase is now £13,467 cheaper.
The reason for the rise is that the High court in the UK ruled that Prime Minister Theresa May does not have the power to invoke Article50 and therefore start the process of leaving the EU. This means that investment has re entered the UK as remaining part of the single market is now an option.
As for the Eurozone the Central Bank have announced they will be extending the Quantitative easing program and will be therefore injecting another 540 billion euros into the economy to stimulate growth.
This week the Federal Reserve (US central bank) raised interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% and analysts at ING are predicting EURUSD exchange rates could reach parity. If this occurs I expect the pound will then make further gains against the euro and GBPEUR exchange rates will finish the year in the low 1.20s.
Looking ahead to next year the major talking point will be the Supreme Court decision in January. If the Supreme Court rule in favour of the High Court I would expect to see the pound remain buoyant at levels we have become accustom to throughout December. However if the Supreme Court overturn the High Court, I expect the pound to crash as an exit from the single market will be on the horizon.
The problem euro buyers and sellers have is that it’s very difficult to predict the Supreme Courts verdict!
If you are buying or selling euros in the upcoming months and want to achieve rates of exchange that are better than your bank, whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me with your requirements email@example.com or call the trading floor Monday morning on 0044 1494 787478 and ask for Dayle Littlejohn.
If you are trading a currency pair that I have not covered, feel free to email me with the pair (GBPUSD, GBPAUD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is firstname.lastname@example.org and I look forward to receiving your email.
This evening the Federal Reserve will release their latest interest rate decision. It was 12 months ago to the day when the FED decided to hike interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5% and on the 12th month anniversary many economists believe a hike is inevitable.
If the US do decide to hike interest rates speculators should flock to the US dollar to make profit from their investments and therefore I expect GBPUSD (cable) to fall.
As for GBPEUR exchange rates, EURUSD is the most commonly traded pair and a general trend is that if one currency strengthens then the other weakens. Therefore we could see the pound make some gains against the euro if Chairlady Janet Yellen decides to hike.
Looking ahead to next year, the Supreme Court decision for the UK could put pressure on the pound and therefore exchange rates could fall. For people purchasing a foreign currency next year the safe option is to purchase upfront.
If you are buying or selling the pound in the upcoming months UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s March deadline to invoke Article50 should have a major impact on the exchange rates you will receive. Feel free to email me with the pair (GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPAUD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is email@example.com and I look forward to receiving your email.
Sterling exchange rates have opened up negatively this morning against all major currencies including vs the Euro and the US Dollar as we are now only a few hours away from the Autumn Statement.
The recently appointed Chancellor or the Exchequer Philip Hammond will deliver the news later today and it could be a tricky release bearing in mind the political events that have taken place so far during 2016.
One of the key issues will be how the Chancellor plans to move away from Osborne’s previous plan to cut the trade deficit by 2020. With GDP expected to be downgraded for 2017 from 2.2% to 1.3% it will be difficult for Hammond to provide too many positive ideas for the UK so I think we could see some problems for Sterling during today’s trading session.
The Pound has seen some gains recently as the tone from Europe appears to be softening towards the Brexit and ongoing talks are that we could see a soft Brexit with possible access to the single market when the negotiations finally begin.
The Italian referendum is also due in a fortnight so politically there are clearly problems ahead for the Eurozone and this could be reflected in Euro weakness in the medium term.
Therefore, if you need to buy Euros in the short term then it may be worth looking at doing something shortly before the Autumn Statement is released.
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident that not only can I save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank when buying or selling currency but also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds.
If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.
Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org
Or call me directly on 00441494787478 and ask for me directly when calling in.
The Autumn Statement
Tomorrow the Chancellor, Philip Hammond will deliver the autumn Budget. He will outline spending and taxes post-Brexit vote. We will also see forecasts relating to unemployment, growth and inflation. This will give an indication as to policy moving forward.
Inflation will be particularly interesting as the fall in Sterling has caused import prices to rocket which will soon hit the consumer. This is not good news for the UK economy as wage growth will not keep up. Some economists are predicting we could be as high as 2.7% by the end of Q1.
George Osbourne’s pledge to balance the books by the end of his tenure has been scuppered by the referendum vote and the government face a black hole of around £25bn. I would expect there to be a rise in borrowing of £5bn upwards.
Expect drop in growth forecasts and the pound to be hit due to this. If you have currency requirement involving selling Sterling it may be wise to take advantage of current highs.
If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wold like no obligation help, feel free to contact me personally at email@example.com. I can provide you with an individual trading strategy if you provide me with the currency pair you are trading, your time scale and a ball park figure of the size of your trade. I work for Foreign Currency Direct PLC, one of the top brokerages in the Country and it enables us to provide the most competitive rates of exchange. We are registered with the FCA and have been in business for over 16yrs giving clients peace of mind when dealing with their transfers. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to helping you with your currency requirements.