Tag Archives: exchange rates

A tough week for sterling (Dayle Littlejohn)

UK Prime Minister told Sky last week that she didnt want to keep bots of the EU which confirmed she plans to remove the UK from the single market. The pound has been in a steep decline since. The PM has blamed the press for the pounds demise however I believe if she continues with her tone exchange rates will fall.

She is set to hold another press conference Tuesday, with the agenda simply Brexit. Many leading economists and CEOs of businesses within the UK have warned the PM that she needs to give clear direction in the upcoming weeks.  HSBC leading officials have gone one step further and warned the PM that her actions could push the bank to move their headquarters to Paris, which means many jobs would be lost for the UK.

As for UK economic data since the turn of the year, figures have been strong however the pound has declined. It just shows that politics/ Brexit is outweighing economic data releases.

If you have a foreign currency to buy this month I would recommend getting in touch to discuss your options as I expect the pound will fall in value once more after the PMs press conference Tuesday.

When buying or selling the pound you also need to understand the factors that will be impacting the other currency. Feel free to email me the currency pair you are converting (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

For the readers reference the company I work for on a daily basis save clients money on currency transfers. If you are planning a transfer and are using your bank or another brokerage, I would reccomend getting in touch for a forecast and at the same time compare of exchange rates. This is free of charge and will take you a few minutes.

 

What to expect for sterling exchange rates early 2017 (Dayle Littlejohn)

What you need to know about Brexit and the impact of Brexit on exchange rates

Throughout 2016 ‘Brexit’ was the main talking point for sterling exchange rates and I expect this trend to continue for at least the next two quarters.

When the UK public voted out of the European Union the consensus was that the UK would also be leaving the single market.

However the High Court ruled UK Prime Minister Theresa May does not have the power to invoke Article50 and therefore leave the single market.

The Prime Minister disagreed with the High Court ruling and last month took her case to the Supreme Court in hope that the decision will be overturned. The verdict is set to be released some point this month.

It’s important to realise Brexit is complex, however if you are buying or selling pounds in the upcoming months we have seen trends over the last 7 months that should help your decision making.

When the UK voted out of the EU in June and as a country we were under the impression we would exit the single market GBPEUR and GBPUSD plummeted to lows of 1.10 and 1.2190.

As soon as the High Court ruled that an exit from the single market will occur once Theresa May has approval from Government (very unlikely this would materialise) GBPEUR and GBPUSD increased to highs of 1.2015 and 1.2750.

Looking ahead to the Supreme Court decision this month, I believe there are two outcomes to exchange rates once we hear the verdict.

If the Supreme Court rule in favour of the High Court an exit from the single market becomes unlikely and therefore the pound makes gains against all of the major currencies.

If the Supreme Court overturn the High Court an exit from the single market could occur as early as March and therefore the pound plummets to lows we saw only 3 months ago.

How can I help you?

The currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients rates of exchange that they won’t be able to achieve by using their own bank.

Property purchases and sales are my area of expertise, therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale abroad, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and to get an understanding of how we can save you as much money as possible.

When purchasing currency it’s crucial to analyse both the currencies you will be trading, as your 2nd currency will also have an impact on the pair.

Feel free to email me the currency pair you are converting (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

GBPEUR forecast for the next 3 months (Dayle Littlejohn)

Since the start of November GBPEUR central exchange rates have increased from 1.1060 to 1.1950. Therefore a €200,000 purchase is now £13,467 cheaper.

The reason for the rise is that the High court in the UK ruled that Prime Minister Theresa May does not have the power to invoke Article50 and therefore start the process of leaving the EU. This means that investment has re entered the UK as remaining part of the single market is now an option.

As for the Eurozone the Central Bank have announced they will be extending the Quantitative easing program and will be therefore injecting another 540 billion euros into the economy to stimulate growth.

This week the Federal Reserve (US central bank) raised interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% and analysts at ING are predicting EURUSD exchange rates could reach parity. If this occurs I expect the pound will then make further gains against the euro and GBPEUR exchange rates will finish the year in the low 1.20s.

Looking ahead to next year the major talking point will be the Supreme Court decision in January. If the Supreme Court rule in favour of the High Court I would expect to see the pound remain buoyant at levels we have become accustom to throughout December. However if the Supreme Court overturn the High Court, I expect the pound to crash as an exit from the single market will be on the horizon.

The problem euro buyers and sellers have is that it’s very difficult to predict the Supreme Courts verdict! 

If you are buying or selling euros in the upcoming months and want to achieve rates of exchange that are better than your bank, whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me with your requirements drl@currencies.co.uk or call the trading floor Monday morning on 0044 1494 787478 and ask for Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are trading a currency pair that I have not covered, feel free to email me with the pair (GBPUSD, GBPAUD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

 

US interest rate decision looming (Dayle Littlejohn)

This evening the Federal Reserve will release their latest interest rate decision. It was 12 months ago to the day when the FED decided to hike interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5% and on the 12th month anniversary many economists believe a hike is inevitable.

If the US do decide to hike interest rates speculators should flock to the US dollar to make profit from their investments and therefore I expect GBPUSD (cable) to fall.

As for GBPEUR exchange rates, EURUSD is the most commonly traded pair and a general trend is that if one currency strengthens then the other weakens. Therefore we could see the pound make some gains against the euro if Chairlady Janet Yellen decides to hike.

Looking ahead to next year, the Supreme Court decision for the UK could put pressure on the pound and therefore exchange rates could fall. For people purchasing a foreign currency next year the safe option is to purchase upfront. 

If you are buying or selling the pound in the upcoming months UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s March deadline to invoke Article50 should have a major impact on the exchange rates you will receive.  Feel free to email me with the pair (GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPAUD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

 

Sterling gains on positive UK trade data, will the bullish trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The latest set of UK economic data surprised investors today and as a result, the Pound has received a welcome boost across the board.

After a very good November the Pound fell off it’s highs against both the Euro and the US Dollar earlier this week, but the currency is regaining some of it’s lost value and approaching those highs once again which the GBP/EUR pair approaching 1.20 once again.

The Pound has recovered particularly well versus the Euro after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced yesterday that it will be extending its bond purchasing program as a form of quantitative easing.

The Pound gained off the back of this news mostly due to Euro weakness but today those gains have been boosted further. UK Trade is looking a lot healthier after data released today showed October’s visible trade balance dropped to -£9.7bn when many had expected to see it drop from -£13.8bn down to -£11.8bn.

This reduction is of course good news for the UK, and trade balance figures are often discussed in financial media after earlier this year it was announced that the pound had the highest deficit within the developed world.

Now that GBP/USD is trading above 1.25 and GBP/EUR is closing in on 1.20 once again it appears that the Pound is looking healthy around these levels after gaining a lot of ground in a short period of time.

If you’re planning on taking advantage of the recent gains by Sterling by converting the currency into another major currency, feel free to get in contact to discuss  exchange rates and timings.

You can contact me directly jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

The impact of the Italian Referendum on GBPEUR exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

GBPEUR exchange rates finished the week at a 3 month high, due to investors selling off their euros in anticipation of the Italian referendum decision tomorrow morning.

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi wants to streamline parliament and take power away from the senate. His plans are to cut senate members from 315 to 100 which would in turn speed up the law making process. It’s important to note that Matteo Renzi has said he will resign if he loses.

The no campaign is being headed by anti-establishment party Five Star Movement, who want to hold a referendum in regards to keeping the euro, as many Italians are fed up that the economy is stagnant,

If the Prime Minister loses the vote then the Five Star Movement party led by Beppe Grillo would receive a boost from the prime minister’s defeat and I think there would be another referendum in the near future in regards to EU membership.

With polls suggesting there is a good chance the Prime Minister will lose the vote I expect the Euro will continue to lose value tomorrow and therefore GBPEUR exchange rates will break through 1.20.

For Euro buyers exchange rates have improved 10 cents in 4 weeks, which means a €200,000 purchase is now £15,000 cheaper!

If GBPEUR exchange rates improve further off the back of the Italian Referendum, euro buyers within the next 0-6 months should seriously consider taking advantage as I believe its only a matter of time until we know more about what Brexit will look like and therefore the pound will lose value.

If you are trading another currency pair that I have not covered, feel free to email me with the pair (GBPUSD, GBPAUD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

If you are buying or selling euros in the upcoming weeks and are looking to achieve competitive rates of exchange whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me with your requirements or call the trading floor on 0044 1494 787478 and ask for Dayle Littlejohn.

 

 

Sterling exchange rates enter December in good health, but will the Pound continue to climb? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is entering the new month in a much stronger position than it entered November, after the currency gained an impressive 4.5% against the Euro through last month as well as performing well against a number of other major currencies.

Yesterday afternoon the Pound spiked upward against the Euro, as did the US Dollar, after both UK GILT (bonds issued by the UK government) and US government issued bond yields both increased in anticipating of further quantitative easing from the European Central Bank, (ECB) and also expectations of an aggressive fiscal plan by the US President elect Donald Trump.

Whilst complicated the result was Sterling strength across the board.

People planning on converting Pounds into another major currency such as the US Dollar, the Euro or the Australian Dollar for example have been presented with a much more attractive opportunity than this time last month, due to the Pounds unexpected gains off the back of the unexpected election of Trump.

Personally, I think the Pound may gain further on the Euro as we enter December and the Italian Referendum this weekend may be the catalyst. If the Italian Prime Minister (Matteo Renzi) is unsuccessful in his plan to change the Italian constitution in order to reform the banking system in Italy, I think we could see further Euro weakness as soon as next week. Feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept updated on this topic.

Those in the process of buying property abroad or moving large amounts of money internationally have the chance to save thousands if we compare the Pounds value now compared with just a month ago, and with the help of a specialist currency exchange brokerage like ourselves we can help clients get even more for their money as our rates can improve on the banks offerings by between 1-4%.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in to speak with me over the phone on 01494 787 478, just ask reception for Joe if I don’t answer myself. 

 

Sterling exchange rates boosted after the Autumn Budget, will the Pound continue to strengthen? (Joseph Wright)

The current levels for converting Pounds into other major currencies are surprisingly attractive when we consider the outlook for the Pound just a few weeks ago.

I think that people planning on converting their Pounds into another major currency, for a property purchase for example, have been dealt a fortunate hand as the Pound hit a 2-month high yesterday on a trade weighted basis, whereas just a few weeks ago the pound was trading at over 5 year lows against the Euro and at over 30 year lows against the US Dollar.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is now trading closer to 1.20 than 1.10 after gaining 7 cents off the back of Donald Trump’s election victory. The UK economy, and therefore the Pound, has been boosted by the ‘Trump train’ after his warm words about the relationship between the UK and US in his campaign. Barack Obama had previously said the UK would be at the back of the queue on business deals whereas Trump said the opposite, and Trump also has a number of interests in the UK.

The gains for the Pound against the Euro specifically are extensive, making a €200,000 purchase £10,650 cheaper.

The Pound was boosted further yesterday afternoon after the Autumn Budget sprung no surprises. I do think that those planning on converting Pound into another major currency should watch the rates and news as the Pound could come crashing down quicker than it’s risen as is usually the case.

If you are planning a currency conversion involving the Pound, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in and ask reception to speak with me (Joe) on 01494 787 478.

Autumn Statement to decide Sterling exchange rate movement (Tom Holian)

Sterling exchange rates have opened up negatively this morning against all major currencies including vs the Euro and the US Dollar as we are now only a few hours away from the Autumn Statement.

The recently appointed Chancellor or the Exchequer Philip Hammond will deliver the news later today and it could be a tricky release bearing in mind the political events that have taken place so far during 2016.

One of the key issues will be how the Chancellor plans to move away from Osborne’s previous plan to cut the trade deficit by 2020. With GDP expected to be downgraded for 2017 from 2.2% to 1.3% it will be difficult for Hammond to provide too many positive ideas for the UK so I think we could see some problems for Sterling during today’s trading session.

The Pound has seen some gains recently as the tone from Europe appears to be softening towards the Brexit and ongoing talks are that we could see a soft Brexit with possible access to the single market when the negotiations finally begin.

The Italian referendum is also due in a fortnight so politically there are clearly problems ahead for the Eurozone and this could be reflected in Euro weakness in the medium term.

Therefore, if you need to buy Euros in the short term then it may be worth looking at doing something shortly before the Autumn Statement is released.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident that not only can I save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank when buying or selling currency but also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Or call me directly on 00441494787478 and ask for me directly when calling in.

 

 

Autumn Budget – Expect volatility on the market (Daniel Johnson)

The Autumn Statement

Tomorrow the Chancellor, Philip Hammond will deliver the autumn Budget. He will outline spending and taxes post-Brexit vote. We will also see forecasts relating to unemployment, growth and inflation. This will give an indication as to policy moving forward.

Inflation will be particularly interesting as the fall in Sterling has caused import prices to rocket which will soon hit the consumer. This is not good news for the UK economy as wage growth will not keep up. Some economists are predicting we could be as high as 2.7% by the end of Q1.

George Osbourne’s pledge to balance the books by the end of his tenure has been scuppered by the referendum vote and the government face a black hole of around £25bn. I would expect there to be a rise in borrowing of £5bn upwards.

Expect  drop in growth forecasts and the pound to be hit due to this. If you have currency requirement involving selling Sterling it may be wise to take advantage of current highs.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wold like no obligation help, feel free to contact me personally at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I can provide you with an individual trading strategy if you provide me with the currency pair you are trading, your time scale and a ball park figure of the size of your trade. I work for Foreign Currency Direct PLC, one of the top brokerages in the Country and it enables us to provide the most competitive rates of exchange. We are registered with the FCA and have been in business for over 16yrs giving clients peace of mind when dealing with their transfers.  Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to helping you with your currency requirements.