Tag Archives: exchange

Will the Pound continue to fall? (Joseph Wright)

Those currently following Sterling exchange rates will have noticed the swings in exchange rates last week, as the Pound continues to find it’s new trading ranges since it fell so steeply in the immediate aftermath of the ‘Brexit’ vote, an decision made by the British public that has shocked the world.

Many of the major currency pairs are trading in a more volatile fashion than normal when compared with Sterling, which is presenting investors or others with a Sterling currency requirement with some difficult decisions to make. This is where we try to help our clients with timing their trades, and considering that on Friday the GBP/EUR pair hit a best monthly level of 1.2038, and then subsequently dropped by over a percentage point off the back of negative news, it just shows how important timing your trade is and how volatile trading conditions can be at the moment.

Fridays drop was for a simple reason, we received the first piece of financial data that offered us an insight into how the UK economy is performing and the news was negative. Economic activity has fallen to it’s lowest level since 2009, and some analysts are predicting that the UK economy could contract by almost half a percent in the third quarter of this year.

Moving forward I’m expecting the financial data to continue to disappoint on release, mostly due to the uncertainty created by the ‘Brexit’. This is likely to apply pressure on the Pound as the year goes on so it may be an idea to consider exchanging your Pounds sooner rather than later if you’re a Sterling seller.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound it’s worth your time getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call in and ask reception for Joe on 01494 787 478.

 

Inflation and unemployment figures key for where the pound heads next (Daniel Wright)

We have seen a  fairly quiet day on the trading floor today with little in terms of economic data for the markets to feel off of, however the next two days there are a few big releases for the markets to get their teeth into.

The Pound has been sat just above and just below what I see as a pivotal point against the Euro of 1.20. I feel that if we see Sterling break above this level then the Pound may push up by a couple of cents.

Tomorrow morning we have inflation data out at 09:30am and with inflation being one of the key factors involved in interest rate changes, investors and speculators alike will be watching  to see the results.

Following on from this we have the unemployment rate on Wednesday morning, also due to be released at 09:30am. Expectations are for unemployment to remain steady at 5% so any deviation from this level will no doubt lead to the Pound being particularly volatile.

I personally still feel that the weakness for Sterling will not last, of course there are banana skins ahead that could lead to the odd drop off, but in my opinion Sterling has slightly overshot the runway and should be a little stronger than it is at present.

We do not only offer out up to date and insightful market information but if you have a currency exchange to carry out involving any of the major currencies and you would like to speak with me personally then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk – I deal with clients buying and selling properties overseas, business transactions, high-net-worth individuals and premier league footballers on a daily basis so would be happy to assist you too in the strictest of confidence.

It only takes two minutes to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk to get a comparison and those few moments spent may save you a great deal of money as it is very rare that I cannot better someones rate of exchange and in this current market it is even more important to make the most of your money.

Pound rallies as the Bank of England leave rates on hold – Boost for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

Today we have seen the Pound gain value against every major currency following the Bank of England members voting 8-1 to keep interest rates on hold.

An interest rate cut had been expected by the financial markets and somewhat priced in so the fact that this did not happen led to the Pound gaining back some of the value it had lost.

For anyone looking to buy foreign currency this is a welcome result as your up and coming currency purchase has just become a little cheaper! One word of warning is that Mark Carney did state that easing would more than likely have to happen next month so don’t feel like we are not going to see an interest rate change or other easing bought in, it has just been merely delayed for the time being.

I would imagine the recent change in the political position has had an impact in this decision and that the Bank of England now wish to hold fire on making any sweeping moves to see how the land lies once the dust has settled.

We deal a lot with clients looking to buy or sell overseas property and I had a good long chat with the managing Director of Girasol Homes, a property finder for clients looking to buy property in Portugal and Spain (they do also cater for those looking to sell). We discussed the current market conditions and everything really is a lot more positive than many people have been led to believe out there in the overseas property market.

Those looking to sell have seen a welcome boost in the value of their Euros should they need to bring money back into GBP and those looking to buy  are only a few cents from the rolling ten year average for GBP/EUR so the market really isn’t in that bad a place. Those buyers that do have concerns about market conditions could also approach the possibility of hedging their position a little with a mortgage, this appears to be an inceasingly popular approach.

Should you be looking to buy or sell in Spain or Portugal and you would like to speak with Nigel about the market or how he will be able to help then feel free to visit www.girasolhomes.co.uk or email him at nigel@girasolhomes.co.uk quoting Pound Sterling Forecast so he knows where you found him.

Back on the currency front we have a fairly quiet day for most currencies now but overnight we have Chinese growth figures which should impact the Australian Dollar, and European inflation/trade balance figures at 10:00am tomorrow.

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England is speaking tomorrow at 1pm so for anyone with an interest in buying or selling Sterling it would be well worth you getting in touch with us directly so that we can keep you in touch with the action.

Not only do we ensure clients get up to the minute market news but we all work for a brokerage turning over roughly a billion pounds worth of currency a year, meaning we could probably get you a better rate of exchange than your current provider or bank due to our buying power.

If you would like to get a quote or to find out more information about our award winning rates and customer service then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch personally.

Pound Sterling exchange rates post brexit – Where do rates head next? (Daniel Wright)

So we have had a fairly dramatic few weeks since the result of the referendum and I would be pretty surprised if we don’t end up with an extremely volatile market for the next few months.

For anyone with a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months volatility brings you both, excitement, fear and opportunity as the Pound is currently at a 31 year low on a trade weighted basis.

The next big release of interest (assuming there are no more surprises) will be the Bank of England interest rate decision, meeting minutes and summary of QE due out on Thursday 14th July. Investors and speculators alike will be watching to see what move we will be seeing from Mark Carney to try and tackle the potential economic turbulence we have ahead for the U.K.

Carney has hinted at a potential interest rate cut, this may lead to further weakness for the Pound, on top of this the minutes showing what was discussed and how the plans were put in place will be of great interest and will no doubt lead to some extremely choppy trading conditions once again.

I personally feel that the plane has well and truly overshot the runway at the moment, if you look at the cold hard facts then apart from Governmental problems which will eventually resolve themselves, nothing else has actually officially changed. There is still a long way to go before we have pulled the trigger on the starting pistol to leave the EU by acting on article 50.

Banks, funds and many others are acting in advance of potential issues and the newspapers are hyping up the potential doom and gloom ahead but there is still a chance that nothing will actually change.

If you are in the process of bringing money back from overseas or you have an upcoming currency exchange requirement then these are the times that you really need to make sure you have an experienced and proactive currency broker helping you every step of the way. We have seen these kind of markets before, I worked during the European debt crisis and during Fanny May/Freddie Mac so know what may be lying next and how to tailor a game plan to try and help our clients get the most for their money.

If you are in this position then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of what you are looking to do and a contact number. Please note we do not deal in holiday money or cash.

Tomorrow we see the release of Non-Farm payroll data which can impact all major currencies, including the Australian and New Zealand Dollar. The reason this happens is because Non-Farm payroll data measures the number of people in Non-Agricultural employment in the U.S and they quite often get the prediction fairly wrong. Due to the markets moving on rumour as well as fact you can see rates move based on predictions and then swiftly correct themselves once the data is actually released.

Once again we are more than happy to add to our 60,000+ clients so if you have a currency exchange to carry out involving any of the major currencies and you would like to speak with me personally then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk – I deal with clients buying and selling properties overseas, business transactions, high-net-worth individuals and premier league footballers on a daily basis so would be happy to assist you too in the strictest of confidence.

What will happen to the Pound now the referendum is over? (Daniel Wright)

Well, we have had quite a few days here on the trading floor and I can honestly say I have never been so busy.

Many people are asking me now just where do I see Sterling exchange rates heading next and of course the exact answer is that it is impossible to call but let’s look at what may happen in the coming weeks.

I personally feel that once the dust has settled on the result of the referendum we have a little room for some Sterling recovery. We are already seeing share prices start to creep back up a little and the Pound’s dramatic fall has already seeming stopped as we have seen gains against most major currencies during trading today.

We do have plenty of economic and political uncertainty which will hold the Pound back, but people need to realise that as we stand today there is not a huge amount that has changed, just a lot of doom and gloom in the newspapers and speculation as to what might happen.

Everyone now needs to pull together and try to make the best of this situation and to try and avoid letting our heads get down and the economy following suit and should that happen I would expect Sterling to start to gather pace again and I would not be surprised to see the Pound gain back most of the value recently lost.

A lot of attention may now also be placed onto the Euro, with one economy leaving the EU others may also look to follow suit which may really pressurise the Euro and lead to it weakening off accordingly, making it cheaper to buy.

There is so much out there for the market to feed off of that it is extremely key to ensure if you have any currency exchange to carry out that you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side.

I can help you with any exchange you have personally, I have worked on the currency markets for years and the company I work for assists clients in currency exchanges with award winning rates of exchange and customer service.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch to discuss the various options available to you in the coming weeks and months.

 

 

GBPUSD surges above 1.46 and GBP/EUR heads for 1.30 as Brexit risk falls ( Daniel Wright)

If you wanted proof that the EU referendum was creating a volatile market look no further than the current GBPUSD rates. Cable exchange rates have moved almost 3 ½ cents up in the last 24 hours owing thanks to the pollsters boosting the remain probability.

The latest poll indicated a 3-point lead for the Remain camp which has cushioned Sterling ahead of Friday’s results. Despite confidence in a remain vote it is worth noting that the last few polls have all put Leave in the lead, therefore I would still exercise caution in the event you have an outstanding currency exchange requirement.

I am still of the opinion that the Remain camp will pull through. In this event I would predict GBPUSD exchange rates to push through the 1.50’s, levels not seen since Janet Yellen announced her 4 rate hikes back in December of 2015. With a remain vote I expect GBPUSD rates to continue to follow a positive trend until the FED fulfill their promise.

The next question is when will the FED hike rates? As we know the potential for a Brexit turned Yellen away from a hike in June although US economic releases have been mixed and inflation still sits well below the 2% target. Pound to US Dollar exchange rates could remain attractive until a hike decision in September possibly later due to the US election.

In the event the UK withdraw from the EU I envisage this to be negative for many economies due in most part to the uncertainty and impact it may have on commodity prices. If investment moves away from the UK to safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar, we could see unwarranted strength for the Dollar which would impact commodity economies. This in turn could also impact the odds of a FED hike this year. Another factor to consider is the impact it may have on the Eurozone, the UK leaving the EU is likely to negatively impact the Euro, if the UK withdraw from the EU, further budget would be required from the remaining EU nations to fill the financial hole the UK has left behind.

We wait with anticipation for the results on Friday but hope that a Remain unfolds, those looking to purchase currency with Sterling may be in for a treat.

We here at Pound Sterling Forecast all work for one of the largest currency brokerages in the U.K with access to exceedingly competitive and rarely beaten rates of exchange, along with awards for our customer service.

If you feel that we may be beneficial to you then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site many years ago and I will be more than happy to help you personally. We deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from £1000 to multi-million pound exchanges and will be able to explain all of the options to you in clear and easy to understand terms. Email me today on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you need to do and a contact number and I will contact you at the earliest opportunity. You can also call our trading floor hotline during trading hours on 01494 787 478.

The only thing that is certain at present is uncertainty in the market – Take it on at your peril! (Daniel Wright)

The last week or so has led to some fantastic buying and selling opportunities for those looking to send money overseas or bring money home, the most notable movements being an overall drop in the value of Sterling against most major currencies.

Uncertainty is one of the worst things you can have hanging over the head of a currency, and at present we have uncertainty both for our economy and in a political sense. Should we vote to leave then not only will there be months or even years of negotiations to come but also David Cameron will be in a fairly awkward position at number 10.

At present the EU referendum is following a similar pattern to the Scottish referendum whereby as the day approached polls started to show a close run affair, the media hyped it all up and then in the end the large group of undecided voters ended up sticking with what they knew. It is looking like we may have a similar situation with this referendum however do not rule out the leave camp winning.

The issue is that those that wish to leave are exceedingly enthusiastic and are turning a lot of heads. I still feel that remain will edge the vote and that the Pound will gain back value shortly afterwards however if you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming weeks and months then it may be prudent to protect your position a little and secure some of your needs before the result.

We here at Pound Sterling Forecast all work for one of the largest currency brokerages in the U.K with access to exceedingly competitive and rarely beaten rates of exchange, along with awards for our customer service.

If you feel that we may be beneficial to you then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site many years ago and I will be more than happy to help you personally. We deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from £1000 to multi-million pound exchanges and will be able to explain all of the options to you in clear and easy to understand terms. Email me today on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you need to do and a contact number and I will contact you at the earliest opportunity. You can also call our trading floor hotline during trading hours on 01494 787 478.

Brexit Update (Daniel Charles Johnson)

If you have a currency requirement involving Sterling the EU referendum is a key factor in your trade. Swings in the polls are influencing the value of Sterling heavily. The Leave camp currently have the momentum in the majority of polls which is why we have seen the pound weaken against the majority of major currencies. It is worth keeping in mind that the bookies still have the remain camp as favorites. Betfair currently have the remain camp in front at 72%. The bookies put their money where their mouth is and called both the Scottish referendum and general election correctly.

If you have a substantial transfer to make I think the safe option is to hedge. The last thing you want to do is put all your eggs in one basket and then find out your 15 cents worse off after the referendum.

GBP/EUR

The trend at present seems to be a a weakening pound due to the majority of polls showing the leave camp in front. If you are buying Euros I would set a realistic target rate of 1.29 to move. Sellers, If we hit the 1.26s. This morning at 9.30 we will see UK trade balance figures where I expect a slight decline, although I would not expect see too much market reaction.  Look out for UK inflation data on Tuesday at 09.30 which has been know to cause volatility and retails sales figures on Thursday at 09.30. There is the BOE interest decision on Thursday but I expect this to be a non-event.

GBP/USD

Due to global economic uncertainty and the uncertainty created by the general election I think an interest rate hike this year is off the cards. If I was a USD seller I would be tempted to move at current levels. GBP/USD has only fallen below 1.40 on a handful of occasions in the last 40yrs so 1.44 is definitely not a bad time to move.

GBP/AUD

The Aussie has had a prominent rally of late, but I think it will now lose steam. After record GDP and unemployment figures I think it will be difficult to have further gains. The RBA have indicated their wish to weaken the currency and with a general election around the corner I would expect to see the Aussie lose ground.

If you have a currency transfer short term it is vitally important that you are in touch with an experienced broker. I constantly have me eyes on the market and I am in a position to not only guarantee the best rates of exchange against any competitor but also assist in timing your trade to maximise your return. There are contract options available that can be used to suit your individual needs, please do get in touch for further information by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

The referendum and potential Brexit – What impact may the next few weeks have on Pound sterling exchange rates? (Daniel Wright)

So there is no doubt in my mind that we have an extremely important few weeks coming up for sterling exchange  rates and we will have a great deal of volatility in the lead up to and shortly after the referendum.

We will see some extremely great opportunities for both people needing to buy and sell the Pound and we are already gathering together all of our clients with currency requirements so that we are poised to let them know of a big movement in their favour. If you would like to have us on your side throughout the referendum then feel free to fill in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page or email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to speak with you and tailor a plan to try and help you get the most for your money.

With exchange rates moving on speculation as well as fact, every poll that is released in the coming weeks will lead to sharp and rapid movements. Over the past two weeks we have seen the Pound rise rapidly when bookmakers and polls had the remain camp flying ahead only to see the Pound drop off throughout the course of last week as the leave camp fought back.

Latest odds with the bookies still suggest remain are ahead but there has been a great deal of money placed on Britain leaving the EU over the past week or so.

The reason the leave camp winning weakens the Pound is due to the uncertainty that it brings  both for the economy and in a political sense. We will not know the terms of any trade deal for a long time and the Prime Minister will probable feel a little uncomfortable that the campaign he was behind has lost in a vote by his public.

My personal view is that we will end up remaining but it will be an extremely close run affair. The problem for those in the remain camp is that the enthusiasm for those wishing to leave is a great deal larger than those wanting to stay, so the turnout is going to be of key importance to the remain camp as many people that would vote remain may not even get down to their polling stations. On top of this, those wishing to leave are preaching a lot louder than those in the remain camp and seemingly turning more and more heads as the battle rolls on.

With this in mind, it would not be surprising to see Sterling drop off a little in the lead up to June 23rd, especially if the polls remain close. If we do see the remain camp win then I would expect Sterling to see an increase in value, I do expect a huge jump on the day but we would more than likely get a fairly sharp spike followed by days of continued strength.

If you are in the middle of buying or selling a property overseas or if your business has upcoming requirements then you need to make sure you have a proactive broker on your side. There are options available to you including limit orders, stop losses and forward contracts, all of these can help you minimise your currency risk in this difficult market.

We here at Pound Sterling Forecast all work for one of the largest currency brokerages in the U.K with access to exceedingly competitive and rarely beaten rates of exchange, along with awards for our customer service. If you feel that we may be beneficial to you then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site many years ago and I will be more than happy to help you personally. We deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from £1000 to multi-million pound exchanges and will be able to explain all of the options to you in clear and easy to understand terms. Email me today on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you need to do and a contact number and I will contact you at the earliest opportunity. You can also call our trading floor hotline during trading hours on 01494 787 478.

3 weeks to the Referendum!

Exchange rates have slipped dramatically in the last few months as investors fears over the EU Referendum increase. Just what can we expect in the coming 3 weeks ahead of this historic occasion? Well I think it is likely that exchange rates will continue to fall in the coming 3 weeks as we get nearer to the Referendum and the pound is likely to retest the lows that have already been seen this year. The market will have to take account of the possibility of the UK leaving the EU and this will need to be reflected in the price of the currency as we approach the Referendum date. The polls are going to be the main drivers on the exchange rate as we get closer to the event I expect the ranges for pound sterling exchange rates to fluctuate in the recent bands that we have become so used to.

I predict GBPEUR to trade between 1.18 (Leave) and 1.40 (Remain) whilst GBPUSD should trade between 1.33 (Leave) to 1.52 (Remain). GBPAUD will I believe perform in a range of 1.82 (Leave) – 2.12 (Remain). There is likely to be big swings in the coming weeks as we the polls suggest different outcomes. Only last week Remain were leading by 60% according to some, now Leave are in the running at 52% majority.

Making predictions based on these polls is quite frankly very dangerous. The largest polls are only ever sample a few thousand candidates which means they are simply not very representative. The reason the polls got the UK General Election so badly wrong last year was the fact the polls weren’t polling enough of society to really get a true gauge on voters intentions. With this vote being more uncertain than the General Election the scope for big unexpected swings is massive.

The best way to manage the uncertainty is to keep up to date with the latest movements and utilise some of the expertise we have at our disposal including the Limit Order. This allows you to automatically purchase currency once the exchange rate hits a level you have pre determined. A forward contract allows you to fix a level up to 18 month in advance of needing to make a payment removing the risk of future exchange rate fluctuations impacting the value of your currency purchase.

In the words of a great motivational speaker ‘the best way to predict the future is to create it’, leaving everything in the lap of the gods is not normally a sensible strategy when dealing with the currency markets. If you would like to learn more about your options and the process please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.