Tag Archives: exchange

Sterling exchange rates enter December in good health, but will the Pound continue to climb? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is entering the new month in a much stronger position than it entered November, after the currency gained an impressive 4.5% against the Euro through last month as well as performing well against a number of other major currencies.

Yesterday afternoon the Pound spiked upward against the Euro, as did the US Dollar, after both UK GILT (bonds issued by the UK government) and US government issued bond yields both increased in anticipating of further quantitative easing from the European Central Bank, (ECB) and also expectations of an aggressive fiscal plan by the US President elect Donald Trump.

Whilst complicated the result was Sterling strength across the board.

People planning on converting Pounds into another major currency such as the US Dollar, the Euro or the Australian Dollar for example have been presented with a much more attractive opportunity than this time last month, due to the Pounds unexpected gains off the back of the unexpected election of Trump.

Personally, I think the Pound may gain further on the Euro as we enter December and the Italian Referendum this weekend may be the catalyst. If the Italian Prime Minister (Matteo Renzi) is unsuccessful in his plan to change the Italian constitution in order to reform the banking system in Italy, I think we could see further Euro weakness as soon as next week. Feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept updated on this topic.

Those in the process of buying property abroad or moving large amounts of money internationally have the chance to save thousands if we compare the Pounds value now compared with just a month ago, and with the help of a specialist currency exchange brokerage like ourselves we can help clients get even more for their money as our rates can improve on the banks offerings by between 1-4%.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in to speak with me over the phone on 01494 787 478, just ask reception for Joe if I don’t answer myself. 

 

The ‘Trump Train’ market surge fades but Sterling manages to hold on to it’s gains, but for how long? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has surged across the board through November for a number of reasons, with the main catalysts being the likely delay to invoking Article 50 and beginning the Brexit process, and Trumps election victory in the US boosting sentiment surrounding the UK economy.

Those planning on converting Pounds into another foreign currency have been dealt a good hand this month, as the Pound has gained clawed back quite alot of it’s losses since the Brexit vote.

This month alone the Pound has gained 5 cents vs the US Dollar and 7 cents vs the Euro. In monetary terms a £200,000 GBP to EUR currency exchange is now gaining an additional €15,000+ in the space of 30 days which just highlights the importance of timing large currency conversions.

As a specialist currency brokerage we’re here to monitor the currency markets on behalf of our clients, and in volatile trading conditions like we’ve seen this month our service can really save clients large amounts of money due to the assistance with timings and reacting to market movements.

There will be manufacturing and construction figures released later this week which could affect GBP exchange rates depending on their outcome, and if you are planning a currency exchange between the Pound and another major currency and would like to plan around these events, do get in touch regarding timings and exchange rates.

The Pound has so far held onto it’s gains made this month, but currencies do tend to fall quicker than they climb and if some ‘Hard Brexit’ related news is released there is a chance the Pound could lose some or even all of it’s recent gains.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. 

You can also call in and ask reception to speak with me (Joe) on 01494 787 478. 

Why should you contact us here at Pound Sterling Forecast? (Daniel Wright)

Over the past seven years we have had many clients contact us to see if we can assist them both with the timing of their currency exchange, but also with saving money over their bank or other currency brokerages.

All of the writers here work for one of the largest brokerages in the U.K and between us we have over 70 years experience of helping people send money overseas or bring money back for property purchases, property sales, business transactions or any other reason that involves a currency exchange.

We do not deal with holiday money or cash transactions unfortunately but we do pride ourselves on the very highest level of customer service along with seriously good rates of exchange.

Most of our traders have been doing this longer than our competitors have existed, so by contacting us here at Pound Sterling Forecast you can have the peace of mind that not only will you get a great rate, but your transaction will be handled smoothly and efficiently by a team that know exactly what they are doing.

We love providing our regular readers with up to date and important market information on this site and welcome all new enquiries with a personal response as soon as we possibly can.

Looking at the economic calendar we are fairly thin on the ground for data over the next few days as the month ends but do be wary as you can see fairly large swings for currencies as you near the end of the month as larger corporations net off positions and we start to see month end flows.

If you would like to be kept fully up to date with market movements or you would like to save money on any pending currency exchange you have then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to give you a call or reply to you email and answer any questions or queries that you may have. I look forward to speaking with you.

 

Sterling exchange rates boosted after the Autumn Budget, will the Pound continue to strengthen? (Joseph Wright)

The current levels for converting Pounds into other major currencies are surprisingly attractive when we consider the outlook for the Pound just a few weeks ago.

I think that people planning on converting their Pounds into another major currency, for a property purchase for example, have been dealt a fortunate hand as the Pound hit a 2-month high yesterday on a trade weighted basis, whereas just a few weeks ago the pound was trading at over 5 year lows against the Euro and at over 30 year lows against the US Dollar.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is now trading closer to 1.20 than 1.10 after gaining 7 cents off the back of Donald Trump’s election victory. The UK economy, and therefore the Pound, has been boosted by the ‘Trump train’ after his warm words about the relationship between the UK and US in his campaign. Barack Obama had previously said the UK would be at the back of the queue on business deals whereas Trump said the opposite, and Trump also has a number of interests in the UK.

The gains for the Pound against the Euro specifically are extensive, making a €200,000 purchase £10,650 cheaper.

The Pound was boosted further yesterday afternoon after the Autumn Budget sprung no surprises. I do think that those planning on converting Pound into another major currency should watch the rates and news as the Pound could come crashing down quicker than it’s risen as is usually the case.

If you are planning a currency conversion involving the Pound, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in and ask reception to speak with me (Joe) on 01494 787 478.

Autumn Budget – Expect volatility on the market (Daniel Johnson)

The Autumn Statement

Tomorrow the Chancellor, Philip Hammond will deliver the autumn Budget. He will outline spending and taxes post-Brexit vote. We will also see forecasts relating to unemployment, growth and inflation. This will give an indication as to policy moving forward.

Inflation will be particularly interesting as the fall in Sterling has caused import prices to rocket which will soon hit the consumer. This is not good news for the UK economy as wage growth will not keep up. Some economists are predicting we could be as high as 2.7% by the end of Q1.

George Osbourne’s pledge to balance the books by the end of his tenure has been scuppered by the referendum vote and the government face a black hole of around £25bn. I would expect there to be a rise in borrowing of £5bn upwards.

Expect  drop in growth forecasts and the pound to be hit due to this. If you have currency requirement involving selling Sterling it may be wise to take advantage of current highs.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wold like no obligation help, feel free to contact me personally at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I can provide you with an individual trading strategy if you provide me with the currency pair you are trading, your time scale and a ball park figure of the size of your trade. I work for Foreign Currency Direct PLC, one of the top brokerages in the Country and it enables us to provide the most competitive rates of exchange. We are registered with the FCA and have been in business for over 16yrs giving clients peace of mind when dealing with their transfers.  Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to helping you with your currency requirements.

Will Sterling lose its recent gains or continue to climb? (Joseph Wright)

After performing well against the major currencies for the past week or so, the Pound has dropped sharply this morning wiping away much of the currencies recent gains.

After trading close to 1.17 against the Euro for the first time in months, the GBP/EUR pair have tested the late 1.14’s within the past 20 minutes and cable (GBPUSD) has also lost a cent this morning.

Sterling has recently gained a lot of value after Donald Trump’s successful presidential campaign in the US. The property tycoon has commercial ties within the UK, was pro-brexit and his mother was Scottish. His success in the presidential election has so far boded very well for the Pound as the currency recently has one of it’s best week’s against the US Dollar since October 2009, and the High Courts decision to rule in favour on whether parliament must be consulted before invoking Article 50 has also boosted the Pounds value.

The UK Prime Minister, Theresa May has appealed the High Court’s ruling and I think whether or not she’s successful will have a large bearing on how the Pound performs, as the Pound is likely to fall once again if Theresa May is successful just like it did when she initially outlined her plans of invoking Article 50 at the beginning of next year.

There’s a chance that the Pound could drop back to levels seen prior to the High Court Ruling and Trumps victory, and if so then now is the time to take advantage of what’s left of the Pounds recent gains.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Sterling exchange rates surge on high court ruling and Bank of England stance on interest rates (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has performed extremely well today against all major currencies, a sentence I have rarely had the chance to write in recent months.

There were two reasons for this spike in the markets:

  1. A high court ruling that Parliament must vote on whether the U.K can start the process of leaving the EU.
  2. The Bank of England voted 9-0 for no interest rate cut

The ruling by the court will no doubt give Theresa May a sleepless few nights as now the Government cannot trigger article 50 on its own and would need the backing of Parliament for this to go ahead. According to reports they plan to appeal this and we expect a further hearing next month.

What this means is that the slim chance of Brexit not happening has increased, or if it does happen there is a higher chance of what is known as a ‘softer brexit’.

On top of this, the Bank of England made no changes to interest rates and in fact all nine members voted against any change to interest rates which also gave Sterling exchange rates a welcome boost.

An interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for the currency concerned and a hike in rates positive so the fact that a cut now appears to be some way away is why the Pound gathered some strength back.

Mark Carney spoke later in the afternoon which dampened exchange rates a little but all in all this was a good day for anyone looking to buy foreign currency.

If you are in the position where you need to transfer any sum of £10,000 overseas for your business or a foreign property purchase, or indeed you are bringing money back to the U.K for a property sale feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help guide you through this interesting market and assist you with your exchange at extremely competitive rates of exchange too.

Flat start to the week for Sterling exchange rates but what can we expect as the week evolves? (Daniel Wright)

A fairly flat day for the pound against most major currencies so far today, with Sterling trading in a very thin range against Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar exchange rates.

We have had very little economic data out of note today however there are a number of other releases that are worth noting as the week moves on.

Tomorrow we have two key speeches from both the Governor of the Bank of England (Mark Carney) at 15:30pm and Head of the European Central Bank (Mario Draghi) an hour later at 16:30pm. Both of these may lead to a volatile afternoon for Sterling and Euro exchange rates.

Many speculators and investors will be watching every word during both of these speeches for any hints to future changes in economic policy and the market will no doubt move around extremely quickly should any hint to new changes arise.

If you have an exchange to carry out and you would like to be kept up to date with the action then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) by emailing me personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch with you.

Late on Tuesday night we have a flurry of inflation data which will be interesting for anyone with the need to buy or sell Australian Dollars, especially with the market rate for GBP/AUD hanging around the pivotal point of 1.60. Expectations are for Australian inflation figures to remain fairly static however any result that differs from this may lead to a sharp movement overnight. There are ways to take advantage of overnight movements in your favour, most notably a limit order where you request that if a certain rate of exchange becomes achievable at any point 24 hours a day then your currency will be bought out automatically for you. This contract type is free to use with us and can be extremely handy.

The Dollar and New Zealand Dollar take centre stage on Wednesday with lots of data out from the States over the course of Wednesday afternoon and then import, export and trade balance data out for New Zealand later in the evening at 22:45pm – Again a limit order may be worth considering overnight if you are close to your target rate and do not wish to miss out should a spike occur.

Thursday will be important for Sterling exchange rates as we have GDP (Gross Domestic Product) or growth figures out at 09:30am and then later in the day Durable Goods and Jobless Claims data out for the States which will impact U.S Dollar exchange rates.

We round the week off with lots of data our from all over Europe which will impact Euro exchange rates and then U.S GDP (Growth) figures to wrap up the week which can have an impact on all major currencies as it has an effect on global attitude to risk.

On top of everything we have the U.S election which will no doubt keep the Dollar on its toes so we have a lot for the market to digest throughout the week.

if you have a currency exchange to carry out either now or in the coming weeks and months then it is well worth getting in touch with me personally. I can help you not only ensure you get a market leading rate of exchange but also that you get an extremely high and award winning level of customer service too. You are welcome to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk which will take you merely two minutes to do and may save you thousands of Pounds in the future. I look forward to assisting you.

Sterling exchange rate forecasts lowered once again, is now the time to act? (Joseph Wright)

I recently outlined forecasts for the GBP/EUR pair of 1.0922 – 1.1000 from Credit Suisse, and unfortunately now for those hoping for a Sterling recovery, the same bank has lowered their forecast to 1.0526, and this is based on a 3 month period.

The bank has also offered a price target for the GBP/USD pair of 1.1700, so I guess the bottom line is that they’re currently expecting further Sterling downside.

Despite these prominent predication the Pound has actually held it’s ground over the past couple of days after falling on almost a daily basis for almost 2 weeks after Theresa May publicly confirmed suspicions that the invocation of Article 50 will go ahead in March of next year.

The Pound fell because many had hopes for a ‘Soft Brexit’, but those hopes have now all but faded after May’s decision to begin the UK’s separation of the EU earlier than many had hoped.

The reason for the Pound staging a fightback has been some better than expected inflation figures from the UK which came out earlier this week. The figure came out much better than expected at 1% which puts the UK on track to reach it’s 2% target, but I do think inflation could get out of hand if the Pound continues to fall at such a fast rate.

Those planning a currency conversion which involves exchanging the Pound for another currency may wish to consider making that conversion sooner as opposed to later, because if the forecast from Credit Suisse as well from an increasing number of banks are to become true, the Pound has a further 6% or so to fall which equates to large amounts of money on the larger currency conversions.

If you would like to discuss timings and exchange rates, feel free to contact me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also get in touch by telephone on 01494 787 478, just ask reception for Joe.

 

Has the pound bottomed out? I wouldn’t bet on it…

With the pound finally finding some support after a very challenging couple of weeks a very valid question at present is whether or not the pound has now bottomed out. The first reflections following the flash crash which saw GBPEUR hit 1.09 and GBPUSD 1.18 indicated we would see a move lower to perhaps parity on GBPEUR and 1.10 on GBPUSD. Will this now start to materialise or will the rate gently rise as market spotlights focus elsewhere?

Sterling has dropped almost 20% on its TWI (Trade Weighted Index) since the Referendum vote. Billions of pounds of value of the UK economy has been written down as investors fears over the UK’s future relationship with its biggest trading partner manifest on the currency markets. Yesterday’s news on Unemployment shows the economy is still creating jobs, we finally saw some rises in Inflation too this week. A welcome knock on effect from the weakness of sterling versus the deflationary situation only a few months ago.

With the political developments remaining the big driver on sterling we have to be preparing for further losses for the pound. Whilst the Brexit seems to some of us like it has been going on for ages it has only been 4 months since the vote. When we step back from this situation and perhaps reflect on the vote in further months and years to come we will view now as the very infant stages of what is going to be a very long and drawn out process. In such an environment it is difficult to be overly positive for the pound and whilst we might have some small bounces like we have seen this week to help anyone holding the pound, I would not suggest this will be indicative of a move much higher in the short term. Buying on such spikes is I believe a very worthy strategy to avoid being caught off should we see further big challenges on the markets.

Key information for anyone buying or selling the pound comes this morning with UK Retail Sales and then in the afternoon today we have the latest ECB (European Central Bank meeting) where we may learn of any fresh approach by the Eurozone to manage their economy. Any suggestions on future policy direction may cause volatility on GBPEUR rates as well as GBPUSD since swings on EURUSD impact both of these pairs.

I wouldn’t be betting that the pound has now bottomed out since there are still many huge challenges ahead for the UK both politically and economically. The weak pound itself whilst helping Inflation could become more of a problem as it exacerbates the gap between wage growth and prices. I don’t think anyone voted for Brexit to be poorer and one way or another a chronically low pound does make the UK as a net importer worse off.

Sterling is enjoying some of its best news in October with some big improvements particularly against the Euro and US Dollar but it has improved by a small percentage against the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar too. If you are making a transfer in the future understanding all of your options and the market in advance can really help you to make informed choices about when and how to make your currency exchange. I cannot tell you exactly what to do or what will happen but with nearly ten years experience helping private and business clients plan and manage their FX exposure in a friendly yet professional manner I am sure I can add value with a better rate and some sound analysis.

For more information please contact me using the form below or email directly using jmw@currencies.co.uk. Ideally please leave a number so we can speak or please call me on 00 44 (0) 1494 787 478.

The author is Chief Analyst and Associate Director of the UK’s largest private currency brokerage with nearly ten years experience helping private clients and business plan and manage their FX exposure.