Tag Archives: exchange

Economic reality sets in for the pound…

Well it didn’t take more than a week for the economic reality of the UK and sterling to be realised. The euphoria from the Conservative victory has passed as the Bank of England and Mark Carney revised down UK growth forecasts for next year. The prospects of raising interest rates in the UK look to be set out further and further as economic growth falls along with inflation. With the UK economy confirmed to have only grown 0.3%  in the first quarter of this year in the week leading up to the election expectations for sterling to carry on rising look very much misplaced.

Markets unfortunately have very short memories and often overreact to an initial move in one direction with a small kick back as investors take profits. This was definitely seen today as GBPEUR went from 1.4030 this morning to 1.3846 this afternoon. Not good news for all of those Euro buyers hanging on for 1.40!

Economic reality has today set in for sterling and anyone buying a foreign currency who was pleased with positive GBP movers following the unexpected election result, might want to cash in now before it drops further in the future.

For a detailed analysis of your situation and just what to expect when buying or selling the pound please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

The election and how it may impact on the Pound – Pound Sterling Forecast election special

The Election and the impact it may have on the Pound

Well if the polls are anything to go by we are in for a real roller coaster ride in the next 24 hours as the U.K head into voting stations in what may be the closest election in decades.

With political certainty being one of the key factors that have an effect on the value of a currency, Sterling may struggle until we have cemented not only who will be running the U.K but also how they plan to approach their reign.

One of the best ways of putting it is that if you were due to invest in a business (i.e the U.K/Pound) then it is highly unlikely you would take the plunge until you actually knew who would be running that business and how they planned to run it. Until we have some clear results from this election then we are in exactly that position, therefore demand in the Pound slows and Sterling’s value could more than likely drop.

I thought it may be prudent to outline the possibilities that may arise in the coming days, weeks or even months and how they could impact on the value of the Pound.

First and foremost, it does look like there is now a slim chance of any party achieving a majority. A majority would be where they can set up Government solely without the need for seeking out other parties to join together with to form what is known as a coalition.

In the unlikely event that we do see a majority for the Conservatives then I would not be surprised to see Sterling gain a lot of strength as it would show certainty and also with the economy currently performing fairly well, should be taken kindly by the markets. A Labour majority may not be so positive for Sterling initially as we may see quite a lot of change on the horizon for the U.K therefore investors may hold back to wait and see what changes may be made.

Hung Parliament

It is fairly likely that once results are announced we may see what is known as a hung Parliament. This is basically where no single political party wins a majority in the House of Commons and this is where things can really start to get interesting.

Essentially, there are usually 12 days allowed for incumbent Government (current holder of political office) to attempt to form a coalition. This may be trickier than before as the current party involved in the coalition (Lib Dems) has seemingly lost a large amount of support after not keeping to key points of their manifesto during 2010.

During this period I expect large volatility for the Pound and a limit order/stop loss contract may be a prudent approach. This is where you can set a particular level you wish to achieve or a lower limit you do not want to buy below and either may be secured automatically for you should the market price become available. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk or call our trading floor line on 01494 787478 for more information.

After 12 days (although it did take 13 last time around) if the Conservatives have failed to put together a coalition then the largest opposition party may be asked to put together a coalition. This has every potential to end up being the Labour party attempting to put something together with the SNP (Scottish National Party).

Should this be the case then I feel Sterling may really suffer as the SNP have already commented that they would like to have another referendum on Scottish independence and I would be highly surprised that they would agree to anything without the potential of this taking place. When we had the vote for Scottish independence last year and the chance of a yes vote heightened, Sterling dropped off by over 4% in a few days so with the potential of this looming, even sometime in the future the Pound will more than likely suffer.

In the event that no party can put together a coalition then we may have a situation of ‘no overall control’ which was seen a number of times in the twentieth century. This would make life hard for the Pound and would lead to a second election later in the year and again may lead to a tricky period for the U.K and indeed the Pound for a number of months.

All in all if you are looking to buy or sell foreign currency in the coming days, weeks or months then it is extremely important that you make your account manager here at currencies.co.uk fully aware. If you are working to a particular budget then our contract options may be a sensible approach, you can book an exchange rate for anything up to a year in advance for just a small deposit, helping you to budget well in advance for the year ahead. If you would like any assistance or one of our friendly traders to explain the various options available to you then either email me on djw@currencies.co.uk   or call us directly on 01494 787 478.

Sterling rises again but for how long?

Exchange rates are like elastic bands, you stretch and stretch until suddenly, “BANG!” and your rate is gone!

I would be so pleased if I was buying a foreign currency with sterling in 2015. GBPEUR has risen almost 15 cents since the start of the year, against the Aussie and Kiwi sterling is at multi years. GBPCAD has been over 1.90 and GBPZAR is comfortably above 18! Is this going to carry on with the most uncertain election in years just around the corner?

Much of sterling’s strength is due to other currencies being weaker. Notably the Euro which has weakened to multi year lows against all currencies. The outcome of all of this could not be so rosy with the election coming up. In short if you are transferring currency in the coming weeks or months please don’t take the current rates of exchange for granted, it could end up very costly. I was working when the last election took place, sterling lost 5 cents in the weeks leading up to the election. The same was true of the Scottish Referendum. Now sterling did recover afterwards but is that really a risk to take? The distinction between those two events and next week’s election is the range of uncertain outcomes.

Even if you don’t need to buy currency just yet making some plans in advance is always sensible when it comes to finance. As a wise man once said ‘A good financial plan is a road map that shows us exactly how the choices we make today will affect our future’. 

For more information on the currency markets and other inspiring quotes please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

FOMC Minutes show a split decision on rate hikes (Daniel Wright)

The latest set of Federal Reserve minutes from the last interest rate decision released this evening have actually shown that even the Fed are currently torn on when to raise interest rates.

An interest rate hike or more the timing of the interest rate hike has been key to the strength of the Dollar over the past few months with many major analysts expecting to see a hike this summer.

Now that it appears that the members of the Fed are actually quite split you would imagine that the Dollar may actually gain strength but at present it is still the best of the three majors.

With numerous problems within the Eurozone and a pending tight election for the U.K expected to hold Sterling back the Dollar is still well and truly holding ground.

Personally I expect this to continue however depending on the result of the election there is a high chance of a Sterling fight back should there be no major changes in terms of Government for the U.K.

If you have the need to exchange any currency in the coming days, weeks or months then it is key to have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side for it. The company we work for has won awards both for our exchange rates and customer service so even if you are already set up with a broker it may be well worth you getting in touch with me directly and should save you money.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to contact you personally. I look forward to hearing from you.

How the election may impact Sterling exchange rates – Will the Dollar continue to gain strength?

The election and how it may impact Sterling exchange rates

On Sunday evening Parliament dissolved and the election race began for the U.K which I have no doubt will have a great impact on Sterling exchange rates in the coming weeks and potentially until the end of May.

In fact in 2010 we saw a great deal of weakness for the Pound in the lead up to the election and then a little strength following it when the uncertainty had been removed. I remember the trading floor being particularly busy before, during and after the election and I expect this year to be no different.

election currency 2010

Political uncertainty can be rather damaging for a currency and not only when we get a result but also depending on the result the uncertainty will cast a grey cloud over the Pound which will make it hard to gain too much strength until we have a firm and satisfactory resolution for who is going to run the country.

My view is that the media will yet again hype up the polls to be exceedingly close in the build-up and we may see similar to what we saw in the lead up to the Scottish referendum where the Pound lost almost 4% just before it.

If you have foreign currency to purchase in the coming weeks it may be prudent to protect yourself against market movement for this very reason as a 4% movement can end up with you paying over £7000 more for a €150,000 so is it really worth the risk of holding on?

We have various contract types available to protect you against market movement’s, you can contact me (Daniel Wright) directly to discuss these on 01494 787 478 or by emailing me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk

Will the Dollar continue to gain strength?

With the election coming up in the U.K, lots and lots of problems still hovering over the Eurozone and the antipodean countries still seemingly trying to weaken off their currencies the main currency of choice at present appears to be the Dollar.

I think had the Federal Reserve not been slowing the hype of an interest rate hike over in the States we may have been looking at even move Dollar strength than we have seen lately.

Personally I still feel economic data will be the key to any real further Dollar strength and we have quite a lot of data out this morning and tomorrow from the States with Consumer Confidence this afternoon, mortgage, employment and manufacturing data out later tomorrow afternoon.

Further positive news and we may start to see the Dollar head closer to new multi-year highs to sell Dollars and a move down to 1.45 would not be out of the question.

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk

Economic data out in the coming week

There is a huge amount of data coming out this week and early next so it is  imperative that if you are due to carry out an important currency exchange that you keep in close contact with us here and let your account manager know exactly what you are looking to do and during which timescale.

This morning we have key GDP (Growth figures) figures for the U.K however this is only a revision and no change to the 0.5% already out is expected to wrap up 2014.  A little later at 10:00am we have key inflation figures for the Eurozone which is been extremely important for the Euros as the risk of falling into deflation becomes increasingly likely. At 11am we will also have the unemployment rate for the Eurozone.

Tomorrow morning to start the month off we see manufacturing figures from Europe throughout the course of the morning so for those looking to exchange Euros this week before the Easter break there could be some great opportunities that arise throughout the next day or so

Will the pound fall or rise next week?

Next week could be a very challenging time for sterling exchange rates! We will enter the month of April, the month before the UK’s General election. This event is widely predicted to cause GBP losses and anyone buying or selling the pound should really take stock of the excellent improvements in their favour this year.

The pound has struggled in recent weeks as the prospect of raising interest rates by the Bank of England moves out further. Lower Inflation has meant there is less need to raise interest rates and comments by Andy Haldane, a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee that interest rates may need to fall rather than raise did little for confidence this week. Hence the reason GBP rates fell this week.

Mark Carney turned the coin over with comments an interest rate hike was in fact more likely, hence GBP strength today. Such volatility underlining the sensitivity markets can have to comments and economic data. On the whole the pound is up at multi year highs against the Euro, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar and the Rand. The only currency the pound is struggling against is the US dollar!

All in all the exchange rate is likely to fall next month at some point owing to the uncertainty of the election. This will impact both buyers and sellers of the pound so making plans in advance is in my opinion sensible. For more information on all of your options please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling exchange rate movements today – Quiet week for economic data this week (Daniel Wright)

First and foremost our sincere condolences to anyone involved in the air crash today, always deeply saddening to hear such news.

Regarding currency, we have seen another fairly stable day for Sterling against the Euro and Dollar yet with fairly sharp drops against the Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.

We saw inflation figures out earlier this morning which immediately knocked the Pound as inflation dropped to a rather concerning 0% against market expectations of dropping down to 0.1%.

The inflation issue remains a concern for the Bank of England, along with the fact that Manufacturing figures at the start of the week showing the U.k manufacturing levels are really down.

This may be partially down to the fact that Sterling has been so strong against the Euro of late which has possibly led to European clients of U.K businesses seeking to buy their goods and services from elsewhere in Europe instead of from the U.K as Sterling is just so expensive for them.

With this in mind it is no surprise that the 1.40 level for GBP/EUR did not stick around for long and although there are many problems still within Europe I personally still do not see Sterling gaining significant ground against the Euro in the coming weeks, so if you have a pending requirement to buy Euros for your business or to purchase a property overseas then it may be prudent to look at making a purchase soon rather than potentially seeing another boat of opportunity sail away.

If you have the need to exchange any currency in the coming days, weeks or months then it is key to have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side for it. The company we work for has won awards both for our exchange rates and customer service so even if you are already set up with a broker it may be well worth you getting in touch with me directly and should save you money.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to contact you personally. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Sterling Euro creeps down from 1.40 – Market poised on Federal Reserve decision tomorrow and RBA minutes confirm future interest rate cut is probable (Daniel Wright)

An interesting day on the currency markets for Sterling, seeing the rate come down from 1.40 against the Euro, finished the day in the mid 1.47s against the Dollar and ended close to 1.94 against the Australian Dollar.

Earlier this morning European inflation figures were one of the main drivers for a little Euro strength which has been an extremely rare occurrence over the past few weeks. This gave those looking to sell Euros a brief opportunity to achieve a slightly better price and showed again just how important it is to buy on spikes when they occur and not to get greedy and miss out.

There is every chance we may see the rate push back through 1.40 but it is key to remember that if you are buying Euros then you are almost already a whopping 10% up on the rate at the turn of the year so if you are in the process of buying a property overseas with Euros it may be prudent to at least lock in a portion of your funds as there are still plenty of issues that could bring the rate back down… One being the election.

If you are looking to buy or indeed sell Euros in the near future and you would like my assistance and to get not only award winning exchange rates but a high level of customer service then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Anyone in the position of selling Dollars will be pleased with the last few weeks movements as we saw the rate burst through the 1.50 mark for the first time in a few years. Tomorrow we have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and monetary policy statement which will be a key indicator as to when the Fed may look to raise interest rates and could lead to quite a volatile evening for the Dollar.

For Australian Dollar followers the RBA commented last night in their latest meeting minutes that they would cut interest rates if they needed to in the future which suggests there is every chance of an interest rate cut and the Australian Dollar to weaken again in the coming months.

An interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for a currency and a hike in rates is generally positive and with exchange rates moving on speculation as well as fact even the slightest hint of a cut or hike can lead to quite a lot of market movement.

Tomorrow is an extremely busy day for those with Sterling to exchange to or from any other currency. We have the Bank of England minutes from their last interest rate decision at 09:30am and the budget at 12:30pm so be sure to keep a keen eye on the rates on and shortly after these times.

Once again if you have an exchange to carry out then I welcome all new clients and can generally get better exchange rates than any other company out there so even if you are already set up with a broker there is a good chance you can still save money. All you need to do to get in touch is email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a number and an explanation of what you are looking to do and I will make sure I get in touch.

Sterling Euro rate at best in nearly 8 years!

The Pound has spiked to levels that we have not seen since I started working here on this trading floor nearly 7 and a half years ago, creating a fantastic opportunity for those looking to send money overseas.

Anyone in the process of buying a property over in Europe has had a fantastic year so far and we are almost being surprised on a daily basis with the movements we are seeing.

If you are looking to make a purchase of Euros either now or in the near future then it may be sensible to get in touch with me directly to take advantage of movements we have not seen in years and years.

The mere fact that the U.K is considering and still discussing raising interest rates whilst we only just have the European Central Bank starting a QE (Quantitative Easing) plan just shows how far behind us in terms of recovery the Eurozone is and this has been well and truly shown in the rate swing.

With the election soon to gather pace in the media which will more than likely create political uncertainty this opportunity may not hang around for long.

If you are looking to purchase a property overseas this year and you want to take advantage of current buying levels then there is a great option available to you known as a forward contract. This useful contract option allows you to lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to a year in advance, paying merely a small deposit initially and then the balance on or before whichever date has been agreed, this is absolutely vita if you are working to a fairly tight budget.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to help with any currency transaction you need to carry out.

Sterling strength today following positive unemployment figures – The Pound hits over a seven year high against the Euro – Is this now the best time to buy Euros? (Daniel Wright)

The Pound shot up during morning trading and has continued to creep higher during this afternoon following much better than expected unemployment figures along with uncertainty over Greece still casting a grey cloud over the Euro.

The Greek debt agreement is now starting to feel like an old soap opera with us being left with cliffhangers over and over again without really seeing any real resolutions.

The latest I had heard earlier today was that Greece would be looking to request a six month extension on their debt deadline which will further delay a main resolution and will no doubt keep this saga continuing.

Those looking to buy a property within the Euro zone will currently have a huge smile on their face as buying €300,000 has now become £16,000 cheaper so the temptation to book something in now is hard to resist.

It is easy to forget that you do not have to book out all of your currency in one go, a mistake many people still make. If ever I have the need to make a large currency purchase I would split my requirement into two or even three chunks. The beauty of this is that you are eliminating a portion of your risk should the rate suddenly come back down yet should it creep up a little further you are still able to take advantage of it.

If you have Euros to buy or sell, or indeed any other major currency to exchange and you want the very best rates of exchange along with exceptional customer service then you can deal with me personally. All you need to do is email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I would be more than happy to contact you personally.

 

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