Tag Archives: exchange

What will happen to the Pound now the referendum is over? (Daniel Wright)

Well, we have had quite a few days here on the trading floor and I can honestly say I have never been so busy.

Many people are asking me now just where do I see Sterling exchange rates heading next and of course the exact answer is that it is impossible to call but let’s look at what may happen in the coming weeks.

I personally feel that once the dust has settled on the result of the referendum we have a little room for some Sterling recovery. We are already seeing share prices start to creep back up a little and the Pound’s dramatic fall has already seeming stopped as we have seen gains against most major currencies during trading today.

We do have plenty of economic and political uncertainty which will hold the Pound back, but people need to realise that as we stand today there is not a huge amount that has changed, just a lot of doom and gloom in the newspapers and speculation as to what might happen.

Everyone now needs to pull together and try to make the best of this situation and to try and avoid letting our heads get down and the economy following suit and should that happen I would expect Sterling to start to gather pace again and I would not be surprised to see the Pound gain back most of the value recently lost.

A lot of attention may now also be placed onto the Euro, with one economy leaving the EU others may also look to follow suit which may really pressurise the Euro and lead to it weakening off accordingly, making it cheaper to buy.

There is so much out there for the market to feed off of that it is extremely key to ensure if you have any currency exchange to carry out that you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side.

I can help you with any exchange you have personally, I have worked on the currency markets for years and the company I work for assists clients in currency exchanges with award winning rates of exchange and customer service.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch to discuss the various options available to you in the coming weeks and months.

 

 

GBPUSD surges above 1.46 and GBP/EUR heads for 1.30 as Brexit risk falls ( Daniel Wright)

If you wanted proof that the EU referendum was creating a volatile market look no further than the current GBPUSD rates. Cable exchange rates have moved almost 3 ½ cents up in the last 24 hours owing thanks to the pollsters boosting the remain probability.

The latest poll indicated a 3-point lead for the Remain camp which has cushioned Sterling ahead of Friday’s results. Despite confidence in a remain vote it is worth noting that the last few polls have all put Leave in the lead, therefore I would still exercise caution in the event you have an outstanding currency exchange requirement.

I am still of the opinion that the Remain camp will pull through. In this event I would predict GBPUSD exchange rates to push through the 1.50’s, levels not seen since Janet Yellen announced her 4 rate hikes back in December of 2015. With a remain vote I expect GBPUSD rates to continue to follow a positive trend until the FED fulfill their promise.

The next question is when will the FED hike rates? As we know the potential for a Brexit turned Yellen away from a hike in June although US economic releases have been mixed and inflation still sits well below the 2% target. Pound to US Dollar exchange rates could remain attractive until a hike decision in September possibly later due to the US election.

In the event the UK withdraw from the EU I envisage this to be negative for many economies due in most part to the uncertainty and impact it may have on commodity prices. If investment moves away from the UK to safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar, we could see unwarranted strength for the Dollar which would impact commodity economies. This in turn could also impact the odds of a FED hike this year. Another factor to consider is the impact it may have on the Eurozone, the UK leaving the EU is likely to negatively impact the Euro, if the UK withdraw from the EU, further budget would be required from the remaining EU nations to fill the financial hole the UK has left behind.

We wait with anticipation for the results on Friday but hope that a Remain unfolds, those looking to purchase currency with Sterling may be in for a treat.

We here at Pound Sterling Forecast all work for one of the largest currency brokerages in the U.K with access to exceedingly competitive and rarely beaten rates of exchange, along with awards for our customer service.

If you feel that we may be beneficial to you then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site many years ago and I will be more than happy to help you personally. We deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from £1000 to multi-million pound exchanges and will be able to explain all of the options to you in clear and easy to understand terms. Email me today on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you need to do and a contact number and I will contact you at the earliest opportunity. You can also call our trading floor hotline during trading hours on 01494 787 478.

The only thing that is certain at present is uncertainty in the market – Take it on at your peril! (Daniel Wright)

The last week or so has led to some fantastic buying and selling opportunities for those looking to send money overseas or bring money home, the most notable movements being an overall drop in the value of Sterling against most major currencies.

Uncertainty is one of the worst things you can have hanging over the head of a currency, and at present we have uncertainty both for our economy and in a political sense. Should we vote to leave then not only will there be months or even years of negotiations to come but also David Cameron will be in a fairly awkward position at number 10.

At present the EU referendum is following a similar pattern to the Scottish referendum whereby as the day approached polls started to show a close run affair, the media hyped it all up and then in the end the large group of undecided voters ended up sticking with what they knew. It is looking like we may have a similar situation with this referendum however do not rule out the leave camp winning.

The issue is that those that wish to leave are exceedingly enthusiastic and are turning a lot of heads. I still feel that remain will edge the vote and that the Pound will gain back value shortly afterwards however if you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming weeks and months then it may be prudent to protect your position a little and secure some of your needs before the result.

We here at Pound Sterling Forecast all work for one of the largest currency brokerages in the U.K with access to exceedingly competitive and rarely beaten rates of exchange, along with awards for our customer service.

If you feel that we may be beneficial to you then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site many years ago and I will be more than happy to help you personally. We deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from £1000 to multi-million pound exchanges and will be able to explain all of the options to you in clear and easy to understand terms. Email me today on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you need to do and a contact number and I will contact you at the earliest opportunity. You can also call our trading floor hotline during trading hours on 01494 787 478.

Brexit Update (Daniel Charles Johnson)

If you have a currency requirement involving Sterling the EU referendum is a key factor in your trade. Swings in the polls are influencing the value of Sterling heavily. The Leave camp currently have the momentum in the majority of polls which is why we have seen the pound weaken against the majority of major currencies. It is worth keeping in mind that the bookies still have the remain camp as favorites. Betfair currently have the remain camp in front at 72%. The bookies put their money where their mouth is and called both the Scottish referendum and general election correctly.

If you have a substantial transfer to make I think the safe option is to hedge. The last thing you want to do is put all your eggs in one basket and then find out your 15 cents worse off after the referendum.

GBP/EUR

The trend at present seems to be a a weakening pound due to the majority of polls showing the leave camp in front. If you are buying Euros I would set a realistic target rate of 1.29 to move. Sellers, If we hit the 1.26s. This morning at 9.30 we will see UK trade balance figures where I expect a slight decline, although I would not expect see too much market reaction.  Look out for UK inflation data on Tuesday at 09.30 which has been know to cause volatility and retails sales figures on Thursday at 09.30. There is the BOE interest decision on Thursday but I expect this to be a non-event.

GBP/USD

Due to global economic uncertainty and the uncertainty created by the general election I think an interest rate hike this year is off the cards. If I was a USD seller I would be tempted to move at current levels. GBP/USD has only fallen below 1.40 on a handful of occasions in the last 40yrs so 1.44 is definitely not a bad time to move.

GBP/AUD

The Aussie has had a prominent rally of late, but I think it will now lose steam. After record GDP and unemployment figures I think it will be difficult to have further gains. The RBA have indicated their wish to weaken the currency and with a general election around the corner I would expect to see the Aussie lose ground.

If you have a currency transfer short term it is vitally important that you are in touch with an experienced broker. I constantly have me eyes on the market and I am in a position to not only guarantee the best rates of exchange against any competitor but also assist in timing your trade to maximise your return. There are contract options available that can be used to suit your individual needs, please do get in touch for further information by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

The referendum and potential Brexit – What impact may the next few weeks have on Pound sterling exchange rates? (Daniel Wright)

So there is no doubt in my mind that we have an extremely important few weeks coming up for sterling exchange  rates and we will have a great deal of volatility in the lead up to and shortly after the referendum.

We will see some extremely great opportunities for both people needing to buy and sell the Pound and we are already gathering together all of our clients with currency requirements so that we are poised to let them know of a big movement in their favour. If you would like to have us on your side throughout the referendum then feel free to fill in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page or email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to speak with you and tailor a plan to try and help you get the most for your money.

With exchange rates moving on speculation as well as fact, every poll that is released in the coming weeks will lead to sharp and rapid movements. Over the past two weeks we have seen the Pound rise rapidly when bookmakers and polls had the remain camp flying ahead only to see the Pound drop off throughout the course of last week as the leave camp fought back.

Latest odds with the bookies still suggest remain are ahead but there has been a great deal of money placed on Britain leaving the EU over the past week or so.

The reason the leave camp winning weakens the Pound is due to the uncertainty that it brings  both for the economy and in a political sense. We will not know the terms of any trade deal for a long time and the Prime Minister will probable feel a little uncomfortable that the campaign he was behind has lost in a vote by his public.

My personal view is that we will end up remaining but it will be an extremely close run affair. The problem for those in the remain camp is that the enthusiasm for those wishing to leave is a great deal larger than those wanting to stay, so the turnout is going to be of key importance to the remain camp as many people that would vote remain may not even get down to their polling stations. On top of this, those wishing to leave are preaching a lot louder than those in the remain camp and seemingly turning more and more heads as the battle rolls on.

With this in mind, it would not be surprising to see Sterling drop off a little in the lead up to June 23rd, especially if the polls remain close. If we do see the remain camp win then I would expect Sterling to see an increase in value, I do expect a huge jump on the day but we would more than likely get a fairly sharp spike followed by days of continued strength.

If you are in the middle of buying or selling a property overseas or if your business has upcoming requirements then you need to make sure you have a proactive broker on your side. There are options available to you including limit orders, stop losses and forward contracts, all of these can help you minimise your currency risk in this difficult market.

We here at Pound Sterling Forecast all work for one of the largest currency brokerages in the U.K with access to exceedingly competitive and rarely beaten rates of exchange, along with awards for our customer service. If you feel that we may be beneficial to you then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site many years ago and I will be more than happy to help you personally. We deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from £1000 to multi-million pound exchanges and will be able to explain all of the options to you in clear and easy to understand terms. Email me today on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you need to do and a contact number and I will contact you at the earliest opportunity. You can also call our trading floor hotline during trading hours on 01494 787 478.

3 weeks to the Referendum!

Exchange rates have slipped dramatically in the last few months as investors fears over the EU Referendum increase. Just what can we expect in the coming 3 weeks ahead of this historic occasion? Well I think it is likely that exchange rates will continue to fall in the coming 3 weeks as we get nearer to the Referendum and the pound is likely to retest the lows that have already been seen this year. The market will have to take account of the possibility of the UK leaving the EU and this will need to be reflected in the price of the currency as we approach the Referendum date. The polls are going to be the main drivers on the exchange rate as we get closer to the event I expect the ranges for pound sterling exchange rates to fluctuate in the recent bands that we have become so used to.

I predict GBPEUR to trade between 1.18 (Leave) and 1.40 (Remain) whilst GBPUSD should trade between 1.33 (Leave) to 1.52 (Remain). GBPAUD will I believe perform in a range of 1.82 (Leave) – 2.12 (Remain). There is likely to be big swings in the coming weeks as we the polls suggest different outcomes. Only last week Remain were leading by 60% according to some, now Leave are in the running at 52% majority.

Making predictions based on these polls is quite frankly very dangerous. The largest polls are only ever sample a few thousand candidates which means they are simply not very representative. The reason the polls got the UK General Election so badly wrong last year was the fact the polls weren’t polling enough of society to really get a true gauge on voters intentions. With this vote being more uncertain than the General Election the scope for big unexpected swings is massive.

The best way to manage the uncertainty is to keep up to date with the latest movements and utilise some of the expertise we have at our disposal including the Limit Order. This allows you to automatically purchase currency once the exchange rate hits a level you have pre determined. A forward contract allows you to fix a level up to 18 month in advance of needing to make a payment removing the risk of future exchange rate fluctuations impacting the value of your currency purchase.

In the words of a great motivational speaker ‘the best way to predict the future is to create it’, leaving everything in the lap of the gods is not normally a sensible strategy when dealing with the currency markets. If you would like to learn more about your options and the process please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

Sterling exchange rates weaken as the leave campaign edge ahead in the most recent poll (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has had a rough start to the trading week, dropping off quite rapidly in trading this afternoon. The main reason behind this was due to a poll on the referendum by the Guardian showing that the leave campaign are now marginally ahead.

With the markets recently starting to price in the remain campaign winning the referendum, we had seen a boost for Sterling exchange rates over the past week or so as the currency markets do move on speculation as well as fact. Any hint of the leave campaign starting to edge ahead or should we get a lot of media hype stating that the vote may be closer than first though then we may see Sterling drop even further.

One of the key things that we need to consider is that the enthusiasm of the leave campaign and anyone planning to vote leave appears to be a great deal higher than anyone looking to remain, so the key issue the remain side need to resolve is getting their voters enthusiastic enough to go out and actually vote, this is where the problem lies.

I personally still think we will stay but it is important to approach the market with a sensible view. If you are looking to take a bit of a gamble then it may be sensible to protect any upcoming currency exchange you need to carry out by booking half of it out and then leaving the other half until after the referendum.

We are here to help you all along the way if you do have an exchange to carry out, we are proactive with getting in contact when the market moves in the favour of our clients and also  have a range of contract types to give you the best chance of getting the most out of the market during volatile times.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

Sterling at the Mercy of EU Referendum Polls (Daniel Johnson)

Yesterday The pound gained strength against the majority of major currencies. This was due to impressive retail sales data, positive inflation figures and the remain camp gaining significant momentum in the polls for the EU referendum. GBP/EUR hit a twelve week high at 1.32. GBP/USD 1.47 and GBP/AUD 2.05.

A Daily Telegraph poll show that 55% of the UK population wish to stay, 42% wish to leave with the remainder undecided. What was surprising however was that the remain camp had support from the majority of over 65s. Their findings also revealed that those in the undecided camp were twice as likely to vote to remain in the EU than to leave.

The Institute of Fiscal studies also announced that if the UK were to leave the EU the UK would face an extra two years of austerity. GDP would decline and there would be additional borrowing costs which would result in losses of £20-40bn.

The polls will be a key factor as to Sterling market position up until the day of the vote 23rd June. It is important to note that Sterling crashed a few days before the Scottish referendum and the general election.

We have seen a slight decline today for Sterling against most currencies due to poor GDP figures which has been caused by businesses unwilling to trade due to the uncertainty created by a possible Brexit. GBP/CAD fell more significantly due to the increase in oil price.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and by doing so I can beat any competitors rate of exchange. I am willing to provide a free trading strategy to try and maximise your return. Fell free to drop me an e-mail at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Simply let me know the currency you are trading, time scale and a ball park figure as to the size of the trade. Thank you for reading my blog.

U.K economic data to impact Sterling exchange rates this week (Daniel Wright)

We have had a fairly quiet start to the week so far for Sterling exchange rates, however we may see things liven up as the week continues to progress.

It is important to remember that any news on the referendum may impact the value of the Pound rapidly and out of the blue, so if you have an exchange to carry out in the near future then it is key to have a proactive and sharp currency broker on your side for it.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we aim to give you the very best in market information to ensure you make the right decision to suit your needs.

Tomorrow we have Public Sector Net Borrowing figures due out at 09:30am and expectations are for the figure to increase which would suggest that the Government has slightly more ‘new debt’ than last month if predictions are correct. I actually feel that we may see a slightly more positive figure with the referendum in mind so Sterling may have a good day tomorrow.

We have nothing of great note on Wednesday and then will see growth figures on Thursday morning be the next piece of economic data that we are expecting to have an impact. 0.4% is the figure that analysts are expecting to see for economic growth and any deviation from this may lead to a volatile trading morning.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

Sterling exchange rates against EUR USD AUD and CAD in the near term – What impact may the referendum have? (Daniel Wright)

GBP/EUR

Sterling has gained ground against the Euro overnight as we have seen criticism of some European Central Bank policies in an interview with the head of Germany’s Bundesbank Jens Weidmann. These comments surrounding monetary and fiscal policy show a lack of togetherness which may well lead to further problems for the European Central Bank further down the line.

We must remember that although there is a lot of hype surrounding the referendum and problems for the Pound, the Euro has many problems itself with Greece apparently still struggling and fiscal policies that have been implemented so far not really having the impact that the European Central bank wanted.

I feel that there will be a lot of cat and mouse between this currency pairing in the coming weeks and plenty of buying and selling opportunities may arise, so if you are looking to purchase or sell Euros in the near future then it is key to let me know. We have rate alerts, limit orders and all sorts of tools available to help you maximise your rate of exchange so if there is a particular level you are looking to achieve then feel free to get in contact and I will explain these free market tools to you.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Euros for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

GBP/USD

The Pound has been fairly range bound against the Dollar over the past few weeks and the political fiascos along with delaying of interest rate hikes over in the States still does not appear to have knocked the Dollar as much as we may have expected.

Later this afternoon we have inflation data out for the U.S along with the Federal Reserve meeting minutes due out tomorrow evening. These minutes may be crucial to the strength of the Dollar as they will show us just what had been discussed during the last interest rate decision, along with an indication as to whether or not we may see interest rate changes in the future.

The Dollar gained a lot of strength in the lead up to the end of last year due to the fact that the Federal Reserve had indicated that there may be four interest rate hikes this year and now it appears we may only get two at best. With an interest rate hike generally being positive for a currency and a cut negative, the mere speculation of a rate movement can lead to market volatility.

For a live quote to buy or sell Dollars and the very latest market information feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to speak with you directly.

GBP/AUD

The Australian Dollar is another currency having a tough time of things lately, we have seen the AUD drop by over 10 cents against the Pound in recent weeks and it looks like we may see a breach of 2 again in the near future. Like with the Euro it is important to realise that although there is a pending referendum in the U.K, we also have many problems in Australia too both in an economic and political sense… Not to mention China!

I feel that the potential to buy at a trading price of 2 may well be a stark possibility in the coming days and weeks and with this currency pairing moving 24 hours a day limit orders are well worth taking advantage of. A limit order is where you can set a particular rate of exchange you wish to achieve and should the market tick up there, even for a second then your currency will be purchased automatically for you. There is no cost to place this order and it can be cancelled or amended at any time as long as it has not gone through.

Call me (Daniel Wright) on 01494 787478 or email me on djw@currencies.co.uk for more information on this handy market tool.

GBP/CAD

With oil prices on the rise many would have felt the Canadian Dollar would be on a fight back, however recent information showed that the number of oil rigs in operation was at its lowest point in years, this is a stark reminder that the oil industry is nowhere near where it needs to be for prices to rise consistently. With the Canadian Dollar being so reliant on oil and the horrific fires that we witnessed last week the Canadian Dollar is looking a little shaky at present.

I feel that this pairing may remain fairly range bound in the next week or so, we do have the Bank of Canada Interest rate decision and rate statement next Wednesday which will be the next big Canadian release to look out for.

There is no doubt that the pending referendum will cause uncertainty for Sterling against all major currencies but the global economy as a whole also has many, many problems so this is certain to be an interesting time for the Pound and the global currency market as a whole. If you are not registered with us then it is well worth contacting me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be in touch to explain exactly how I will be able to help you.

If you have any questions or queries about this update or would like information on another currency pairing then please feel free to contact me directly.