Tag Archives: exchange

The week ahead for Sterling exchange rates – Economic data of interest and contract types that may assist you (Daniel Wright)

So we have another busy week ahead for Sterling exchange rates including an interest rate decision for Australia tonight, Unemployment data for New Zealand tomorrow night, Bank of England interest rate decision and meeting minutes on Thursday lunchtime followed by Non-Farm Payroll data due out on Friday afternoon.

There is indeed plenty for the market to feel off of this week and I would expect some fairly large swings, especially for the Antipodean currencies (Australian and New Zealand Dollar) overnight early in the week. With the possibility of such large movements overnight it is key that you have protection in place should you be looking to carry out a currency exchange in the near future.

All the writers here at Pound Sterling Forecast work for a currency brokerage with a turnover of over half a billion Pounds a year, which means we have access to fantastic rates of exchange. Even if you feel you are getting a good deal elsewhere at the moment I would be extremely surprised if we couldn’t do better for you. You can email me (Daniel Wright) the creator and main editor of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be happy to contact you personally. You can also call me during U.K office hours on 01494 787 478 (please ensure you ask for Daniel Wright).

We have a number of contract types that can help you during such volatile times including the following:

Forward contract: This is where you can lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to two years in advance with just a small deposit. This is really handy for anyone buying or selling a property overseas that would like to protect some or even all of their funds against currency fluctuations. I see time and time again clients agreeing to purchase a property overseas and putting down a deposit only to find themselves in a tricky situation later down the line when coming to pay for the balance on the property because the rate has dropped so much. For some reason even the most sensible people decide to effectively gamble thousands of Pounds based purely on hope over actually having knowledge that an exchange rate will go their way. djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like more information.

Limit order: If there is a particular rate of exchange you would like to achieve but the market just is not there yet then you can place a limit order into the market. This order is free and can be cancelled or amended at any time you like as long as it has not gone through, but basically means that if at any time 24 hours a day/7 days a week your rate becomes achievable then your currency will be bought out automatically and we will just contact you to let you know the good news. djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like more information.

Stop Loss: This contract type is handy if you are working to a tight budget and cannot afford to go any lower than a particular rate and works in a similar way to the limit order above, yet will trigger should your buying rate hit your chosen lowest possible point. Some clients like to ‘chase the market up’ and raise their stop order on a daily basis when the market is moving in the right direction for them. djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like more information.

I have no doubt this will be a busy week, please do feel free to get in contact with more information on the above or if you have an exchange you with to carry out and you would like to know what rate we can offer you.

GMT Time left Area Currency Event Consensus Previous
09:30 UK GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 51.8 51.9
09:30 UK GBP Consumer Credit (Dec) £1.300B £1.476B
09:30 UK GBP Mortgage Approvals (Dec) 69.60K 70.41K
13:30 US USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 0.4%
13:30 US USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.1% 0.1%
13:30 US USD Personal Income (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% 0.3%
13:30 US USD Personal Spending (Dec) 0.1% 0.3%
13:30 US USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0%
13:30 US USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 1.3%
14:30 CA CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 47.5
14:45 US USD Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 52.7 52.7
15:00 US USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.0 48.2
15:00 US USD ISM Prices Paid (Jan) 34.0 33.5
15:00 US USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Dec) 0.6% -0.4%
16:00 EMU EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech
18:00 US USD Fed’s Stanley Fischer speech
TUESDAY, FEB 02
03:30 AU AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 2% 2%
03:30 AU AUD RBA Rate Statement
08:15 CH CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) -1.3% -3.1%
08:55 DE EUR Unemployment Change (Jan) -7K -14K
08:55 DE EUR Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jan) 6.3% 6.3%
09:00 IT EUR Unemployment (Nov) 11.3% 11.3%
09:30 UK GBP PMI Construction (Jan) 57.6 57.8
10:00 EMU EUR Unemployment Rate (Dec) 10.5% 10.5%
21:30 US USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 11.4M
21:45 NZ NZD Unemployment Rate (Q4) 6.1% 6.0%
21:45 NZ NZD Employment Change (Q4) 0.8% -0.4%
21:45 NZ NZD Participation Rate (Q4) 68.6%
WEDNESDAY, FEB 03
00:00 NZ NZD RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speech
00:30 AU AUD Exports (Dec) 1%
00:30 AU AUD Imports (Dec) -1%
00:30 AU AUD Trade Balance (Dec) -2,500M -2,906M
01:45 CN CNY Caixin China Services PMI (Jan) 50.2
02:30 JP JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech
08:00 EMU EUR Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting
08:15 ES EUR Markit Services PMI (Jan) 54.5 55.1
09:00 EMU EUR Markit PMI Composite (Jan) 53.5 53.5
09:00 EMU EUR Markit Services PMI (Jan) 53.6 53.6
10:00 EMU EUR European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts
13:15 US USD ADP Employment Change (Jan) 195K 257K
14:45 US USD Markit PMI Composite (Jan) 53.7
14:45 US USD Markit Services PMI (Jan) 53.7
15:00 US USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 55.1 55.3
15:30 US USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Jan 29) 8.383M
23:50 JP JPY Foreign bond investment (Jan 29) ¥475.3B
23:50 JP JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Jan 29) ¥-189.2B
THURSDAY, FEB 04
00:30 AU AUD National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q4) 0
06:45 CH CHF SECO Consumer Climate (3m) (Q1) -18
08:00 EMU EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech
09:00 EMU EUR Economic Bulletin
12:00 UK GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb 4) 0.5% 0.5%
12:00 UK GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility (Feb) £375B
12:00 UK GBP Monetary Policy Summary
12:00 UK GBP Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
12:00 UK GBP BOE MPC Vote Unchanged 8 8
12:00 UK GBP BOE MPC Vote Cut 0 0
12:00 UK GBP BOE MPC Vote Hike 1 1
12:00 UK GBP Bank of England Minutes
12:45 UK GBP BOE’s Governor Carney speech
13:30 US USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 29) 278K
15:00 US USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec) -2.6% -0.2%
22:30 AU AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (Jan) 46.8
FRIDAY, FEB 05
00:30 AU AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Dec) 0.5% 0.4%
00:30 AU AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
05:00 JP JPY Coincident Index (Dec 111.9
05:00 JP JPY Leading Economic Index (Dec) 103.5
13:30 US USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) 190K 292K
13:30 US USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Jan) 2.5%
13:30 US USD Unemployment Rate (Jan) 5% 5%
13:30 US USD Labor Force Participation Rate (Jan) 62.6%
13:30 US USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% 0.0%
13:30 US USD Trade Balance (Dec) $-43.0B $-42.4B
13:30 CA CAD Unemployment Rate (Jan) 7.1%
13:30 CA CAD Net Change in Employment (Jan) 22.8K
15:00 CA CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Jan) 42.5
15:00 CA CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (Jan) 50.3 49.9
18:00 US USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 498
20:00 US USD Consumer Credit Change (Dec) $16.00B $13.95B

I have no doubt this will be a busy week, please do feel free to get in contact with more information on the above or if you have an exchange you with to carry out and you would like to know what rate we can offer you. You can call me on our trading floor 01494 787 478 or email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to assisting you.

 

EU Referendum heats up!

The reports David Cameron is close to sealing a deal on being able to better control benefits for immigrating Europeans has helped sterling as this is expected to be a major issue in the vote. Sterling has found some support and this could be a very good opportunity to be buying a foreign currency with sterling as next week is the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report which if anytihng like the last few comments form the Bank should be bad news for sterling! If you are buying or selling the pound 2016 has been very choppy and I expect will continue to be so, further losses for the pound on the whole very likely but there will be spikes to take advantage of. Achieving the best rate in such a market means being able to react quickly to the changing news and events. If you are considering an exchange and wish to be kept up to date with the important events and understand the latest forecasts please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk and I can try to help you.

The pound has really struggled this year because of the uncertainty relating to the UK Referendum on EU Membership. The UK is proposing to hold a Referendum on remaining part of the European Union which it has been a member of since 1973. The likelihood is that the uncertainty around this event will cause the pound to weaken although breaking news today that David Cameron is apparently closing in on a deal has helped the pound to find some favour. I expect this to be a feature of sterling movements in the next few months and right up until the actual Referendum is settled. Sterling will react to the headlines moving higher and lower according to the prevailing sentiment.

Next week is the latest UK data and the Bank of England report, personally I cannot see good news but will better news from the EU help sterling instead? Keep up to date with our blog by bookmarking us or contact me Jonathan directly for updates and assistance planning your exchanges. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information.

Inflation Data gives Sterling a much need Boost (Daniel Johnson)

PPI & CPI Data

Consumer Price Index figures along with Producer Price Index data was released this morning at 9.30am and both were positive. It has caused Sterling to strengthen against some of the major currency pairings this morning. I am still however worried about  the Pound moving forward. There is simply too many negative factors to see any significant advance. Oil pricing, the pending EU referendum and the slow down in Chinese growth.

GBP/EUR

Despite the positive data this morning, I can’t see Sterling continuing it’s rally. Although some analysts have predicted sub 1.30 I think we could well hit resistance when Euro Sellers hit their magic target point of 1.30 and we see a mass sell off which could result in a small spike for Sterling.

GBP/USD

This one is not rocket science, if you are a USD buyer I would move quickly. With the Fed confirming they are willing to raise interest rates more than once this year I predict further Sterling weakness. You may have some respite when the Presidential campaign draws closer as political uncertainty is sure to weaken the currency in question. The damage could well have been done by then however as I predict a rate hike to have already taken place by the 3rd Quarter.

GBP/AUD

Australia is heavily reliant on raw material export to China and Chinese growth figures released during the early hours were this worst in 25 years. Although this was predicted and been factored into the markets I feel this does not bode well for AUD in general. I would keep in mind the state of the UK economy at present so I would be conservative with my trading target and move at around 2.10 on Inter bank.

If you have a currency requirement I would be prepared to have a quick discussion and explain how our service works and answer any questions you may have. It will also give me a chance to find out a bit more about your specific requirements eg destination, timescales, banks involved etc as I may be able to provide some useful options and tips. I am currently in a position to beat any bank or brokerage’s rates. Thank you for reading the blog it is appreciated and I look forward to hearing from you. If you would like to get in touch please feel free to call on 01494 787478 or feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk .

 

STERLING STILL DROPPING AGAINST THE EURO – Gains against AUD, NZD

Another exceedingly busy day on the trading floor and another headache for those looking to purchase their dream property within the Eurozone.

I have been speaking with clients for months now and many just continue to hold on even with the Pound seemingly having no punch left in it to fight back at present.

If you are in such a position then you need to ask yourself the following question…. Would you walk into a casino and place thousands of Pounds on a roulette table???? If the answer is no then why are you taking exactly the same risk and gamble with your currency exchange???

If you have a large position to buy in the coming hours, days, weeks or months then it is well worth getting in contact with me directly as I can save you money both on the rate you receive and helping you with the timing of your transfer.

You are more than welcome to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options available to you. Do not settle for the rate you currently have from your bank or broker as it is highly likely we can get you more.

Will the pound drop further?

‘The best way to predict the future is to study the past’ said Robert Kiyosaki. So let us look at the past and see why things have happened. And then let us ask ourselves if these situations have been resolved and if therefore they are likely to become features on sterling developments again. My name is Jonathan Watson and I would be happy to hear from you to provide some feedback on your foreign exchange transfer. Please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk 

The pound has been dumped today because…

China

George Osborne has stated today worries about the global economy are having and will have a marked impact on the UK economy. The UK is very sensitive to developments in the global economy as the UK’s largest sector, Services relies so heavily on overseas business. If China is experiencing stock market wobbles and their economy is slowing down this will hurt the UK. The question is will this continue or not? I think most would agree this will occur and therefore this will continue to hurt sterling and dent confidence in the future.

Brexit

The UK might be about to leave the European Union. This could lead to monumental shifts in UK law and business, this will have an impact on the UK economy and our relationship with the rest of the world. Even if the vote is to stay in and stick with the status quo, investors holding sterling will be very concerned about this predicament and the potential outcome. Will this continue to impact GBP? You bet! We haven’t even really started to hear the arguments yet, this story will be big and sterling will react accordingly. Remember the Scottish referendum and the UK election? If not then please email me and I can fill you in on the battles some clients had with wild swings on sterling rates.

Bad Data means No UK Interest rate hike in 2016

The UK data of late has been poor! We are therefore witnessing an unwinding of safe haven positions from last year. Let me explain… The UK and the pound are viewed favourably by investors because the UK has a strong government and a solid currency that investors like to hold as part of their portfolio. Part of this reasoning was a belief the UK was raising interest rates in the future because the UK economy was improving in the future. With a rising interest rate investors feel more confident to hold that currency as the interest rate hikes means they will earn more on their investment in that currency. Think if you had two choices between two bank accounts, one with a higher interest rate. Which would you choose? Naturally the higher interest rate. The same happens on currency, investors will choose the currency with a higher interest rate or the one they believe will raise interest rates in the future.

Therefore (congratulations on reading this far and not giving up, I know the intricacies of the FX market are not too easily digestable – please don’t give up!) the UK is less likely to raise interest rates because of the poor data this year. As a result the pound is being sold… will this continue in the future? Well so long as the data declines yes. If however the data shows improvements the pound will rise but with the factors above seemingly pointing to a one way street for GBP sentiments, I wouldn’t be banking on this too much if I have a foreign currency to buy with the pound.

The US is raising their interest rate!

The US raised their interest rate in December and are widely expected to again this year. Investors who are holding sterling for the reasons above are therefore switching to USD because they believe over the long term the USD will be more beneficial to hold in the longer term.

What should I do then?

The foreign exchange market is like the weather, you cannot accurately predict it. It is a reflection of investor sentiment on the respective currencies. As demand increases so does the value of said currency, as demand falls, the currency weakens. As a specialist currency broker with many years of experience handling private and business clients foreign exchange exposure I am well placed to offer market insight and hopefully allow you to make an informed decision on what will suit you and your situation. there are various options too to buy currency including fixing a currency purchase on a forward contract (pay 10% now, the rest up to 1 year later) and the Limit Order which is an automatic order at a certain point guaranteeing your rate even if hit for only a second.

My name is Jonathan Watson and I would be happy to hear from you to provide some feedback on how to manage your foreign exchange transfer. Please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 in UK business hours and ask to speak to me Jonathan.

I cannot tell you exactly what to do. But I can offer you an educated insightful outlook on your deal plus an exchange rate which I am positive will save you money over other currency brokers and your banks.

Thank you for reading, I hope it has been useful and I hope to hear from you very soon!

Sterling starts the day on the up, slight drop against the Dollar (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has had a fairly good start to the day today and is slightly up against the Euro, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Swiss Franc.

Concerns over China are still impacting the market on a large scale as I had predicted back in early December. I felt that the Chinese problem had been swept under the carpet for the time being to get the festive period out of the way and then would more than likely come back with a bang however I didn’t think it would be quite this early in the year.

Due to this, the markets will remain shaky and you can be sure to expect quite a lot of market volatility for all major currencies which makes this a very tough period to predict.

The Dollar appears to be the main beneficiary of the current issues and the Antipodean currencies (AUD, NZD) are starting to feel the pinch as China has such a large impact on both of their economies.

I personally feel there is still  a lot more to come from this and also I do not feel that the European problems are out of the way as of yet and they too will a their turn in the headlines at some point during the year.

If you are exchanging currency in the coming days, weeks or months for a property purchase or for your business then it is imperative you not only have a currency broker on your side, but that you have a proactive one that lets you know exactly what is going on and explains the various different contract types you can use to help maximise your funds or minimise your costs.

If you follow this site regularly or even if you have just stumbled across us then we have been around for over 5 years now and all writers on here work for a brokerage that has been around for almost 16 years and turns over half a billion Pounds worth of currency a year, so we have access to fantastic rates of exchange for all of our clients.

Should you wish to discuss your personally requirement in more detail with me (Daniel Wright) personally then please do feel free to contact me by email on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you need to do and the timescales you are working to and I will be happy to reply rapidly. You can also call me during U.K office hours on 01494 787 478 – Please ensure you ask for Daniel Wright.

 

Pound drops off – Beware of thinner trading levels during the festive period (Daniel Wright)

Sterling has had a fairly negative day against most major currencies during trading today even though there was very little for the markets to feed off in terms of economic data.

To be honest there is not a huge amount out during the course of the week which would generally lead to a quieter and range bound market but due to much thinner levels of trading and lots of positions being closed off for the year this is and will not be the case for the next week or so.

Late December can be a tough time for anyone looking to buy or sell foreign currency for their business or to deal with a property purchase or sale as the markets can swing quite rapidly without warning which of course can end up costing a large sum of money.

Large funds or companies may well net off their positions to end the year and even smaller tranches of money moving around can have a much bigger impact on exchange rates as the levels of trading are just so much thinner than usual.

One of the reasons for today’s movements may be down to London fixes – This is where benchmark rates and gold prices are decided (usually at 4pm London time) and can have an impact on exchange rates shortly before and after the time it is agreed. More information on this can be found by clicking here if you are interested.

If you are looking to buy or sell foreign currency in the coming days, weeks or months then it is well worth having not just any broker on your side, but a proactive one. We help clients exchange anything from £1000 to multi million Pound transactions all around the world day in day out and not only offer rates better than elsewhere but we also keep our clients well aware of any opportunities that come their way should we see a big shift in their favour or against them.

If you feel that we may be beneficial to you then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk or calling me during office hours on 01494 787 478 and I will be more than happy to discuss how I can assist you personally.

 

Black Friday on Pound Sterling Forecast (Daniel Wright)

Good morning and I hope you are all enjoy black Friday and manage to get yourself plenty of bargains.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast our rates of exchange are so good all the time that we do not need to make any offers of discounts just to lure clients in, we keep our levels of exchange consistently fantastic so that our clients know they are getting a great deal every day of the year.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out involving buying or selling Sterling in the coming days, weeks or months and you want to see if you can get a better rate than your bank or any other brokerage is offering you then it is well worth getting in contact with us directly.

All you need to get in contact is to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk or to call me on 01494 787 478 and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.

Sterling weakness likely ahead, will you you need to make a GBP exchange in the coming months?

The likelihood of further GBP weakness is strong as it becomes less and less likely the Bank of England will be raising interest rates any time soon! The raising and lowering of interest rates is directly attributable to the strength and weakness of a currency. Most certainly in the case of sterling investors will be buying the currency in the hope of the interest rate going up in the future and the currency then being worth much more. Just like a higher interest rate at a bank will encourage investors to put money into that account, so will investors buy a currency if they see that central bank are planning to increase their interest rate since it makes it more likely that that the currency will be worth more in the future.

The pound’s strength is therefore very closely linked to the state of the UK economy and to attitudes to when the Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates. The upshot for anyone who is looking to buy or sell the pound is a a clear pathway as to the intent and expectations for the currency. The difficult part is predicting just how the economic data will turn out! On balance it seems the pound will remain strong but with the latest Inflation news making very clear the Bank will not be raising interest rates any time soon if you are holding on hoping sterling will just keep rising in value you might end up disappointed.

I strongly expect that the pound will lose value in the run up to Christmas as UK economic data shows us that the UK economy is not performing as well as many had expected. The dangerous thing that we cannot really plan for is what happens elsewhere! There is a strong likelihood that the Eurozone will revisit their QE programme and the US will raise their base interest rate. Expect this to cause further Euro weakness and some strengthening of the pound as investors move funds from the Euro to the pound. The key dates are 2nd December (ECB Meeting) and the 18th December (Fed decision).

If you are planning any currency exchange buying or selling the pound for the rest of 2015 or early 2016 making some careful plans now is a very good idea as there is a strong likelihood the rates on offer today will change for the reasons above. To receive updates or learn more about all of your options when transferring money overseas or back to the UK please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk, I am very sure I can offer some useful insight and an exchange rate that will save you money.

Sterling exchange rates remain flat today – What is due out in the coming days that may impact the Pound (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has not really given us a huge amount to feed off of today however there are still a couple of important data releases due in the coming days that may impact your rate of exchange.

Tomorrow morning we have German growth figures which will no doubt impact the Euro in early trading and shortly after this we have a speech from the Governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens speaking over in Australia which is key for those with an interest in either buying or selling Australian Dollars.

Later in the afternoon we have a flurry of figures from the States which will keep tongues wagging about the interest rate hike and then after a fairly quiet morning for economic data on Wednesday we have lots more data from America including durable goods orders which are expected to show a slight improvement.

Personally I feel that this week we may remain fairly range bound against the Euro, we may lose a little ground against the Dollar if U.S data is good and I feel we may gain back a little of our recently lost ground against the Australian Dollar.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the next few days (or even in the coming weeks and months) then it will be well worth you getting in contact with me (Daniel Wright) directly.

I can help you both in terms of getting you a better exchange rate than you are able to achieve elsewhere along with helping you time when you buy the currency as this can make an even bigger difference.

All you would need to do to make an enquiry with me is to email djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what sum you are looking to exchange and the timescales you are working to and I will be more than happy to assist you.