Tag Archives: exchange

1.43 on the markets! Two days to save the Euro!

GBPEUR has rocketed as Asian markets open and investors begin dumping the Euro in anticipation of the two most important days in the history of the Euro. What happens now will decide not just Greece’s fate but also the rest of the Eurozone. Sterling is benefitting rising against all currencies so far but to make a firm prediction on just what will happen is incredibly difficult.

There is a simple formula to follow here. As the uncertainty increases with no deal the Euro will weaken and the pound should rise. This will only be true up to a point where if Greece leaves the Euro the UK would suffer some financial losses. The USD will rise as it has done possibly significantly if Greece does leave. The commodity currencies like AUD, NZD and CAD are struggling with the uncertainty too!

If a deal is struck then the Euro should recover and sterling which had benefitted from safe haven funds, weaken. A deal is what I believe will happen because I don’t think the alternative is worth contmeplating! One thing is for sure the next couple of days are significant for anyone with a currency transfer to consider. If you wish to get the latest news and understand more about what is and will drive your exchange please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

We are here to provide information but also offer a service for international money transfers at the best exchange rates. If you wish to learn more and check your exchange rates please contact me and I hope you see your rate!

Jonathan

jmw@currencies.co.uk

UK Business hours 00 44 1494 787 478

What is around the corner?

What is just around the corner on exchange rates? Well it would appear that sterling is in line for further improvements as investors frustrations with the lack of progress with Greece and the inconsistency of US economic data persist. Don’t get me wrong the UK is hardly setting the world on fire and there is still the mammoth debt mountain to overcome, but at least the UK has control over its economic policies and the economy is growing. As so often is the case on exchange rates it is not a case of which is the best but which isn’t the worst! Below is a light summary on our most heavily traded and reported currencies, I hope you find the information useful. My name is Jonathan and I work as a specialist foreign exchange dealer assisting private individuals and business with their foreign exchange exposure. If you are buying or selling a foreign currency and wish for some useful insight and finding out if a better rate is possible please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

STERLING The pound has been performing well as economic data continues to show improvements in the Unemployment rate and growth in the all important service sector which comprises 75% of the UK economy and therefore UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product). With the UK election out of the way and a stable business friendly government in power the UK and the pound should continue to benefit from uncertainty elsewhere. The hallowed path back to raising interest rates is still rocky but recent Bank of England comments have suggested a rate hike as early as August. Sterling is up at multi year highs against most currencies so there are strong arguments to lock in these levels to remove the risk. If you need to sell or buy the pound and wish to learn of important events that will affect your exchange rate please call me on 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to Jonathan. Alternatively email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

EURO The Euro has come unstuck this year as years of inaction over Greek debt issues finally catch up. I believe a deal will be struck but the uncertainty is weighing heavily on investors confidence and the Euro will struggle to make too much of a comeback. Greece will remain in the Euro but we probably won’t know exactly if this ‘deal’ will go ahead until next week. The Euro will of course rise once the deal is agreed but all Greece’s creditors are doing is postponing the problems for another day. If you need to sell Euros I would suggest moving sooner to get into a more stable currency like sterling to avoid the risk of further losses. The next few days are going to be vital for the Euro so if you are looking to buy or sell Euros please contact me to discuss and be kept up to date with the latest news.

US DOLLAR US GDP has shown the US  is struggling and despite strong improvements in the US labour market the expectations the US would be raising interest rates in 2015 are looking ever more uncertain. Further improvements or deteriorations in the US economy will be the key determinant in whether or not we actually see a rate hike this year, the Federal Reserve have confirmed this. Don’t forget the US dollar reacts to global uncertainty, if investors are worried about what is happening in the future they will buy dollars to ‘hedge’ against the uncertainty. There is correlation between USD strength and increased Greek uncertainty. If you need to buy or sell the USD I think it more likely the the dollar will be weaker in the future, particularly against a rising pound.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR The Aussie is likely to strengthen in the near term as it has weakened significantly in recent months which will undoubtedly have helped boost Australian exports. China is performing well and I expect once a Greek deal is finalised the Australian dollar will rise. Longer term we might see the Aussie weaken if they cut their base interest rate but Glenn Stevens  Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently stated slack in the economy will not be picked up by cutting further their base rate. I would expect a further rate cut perhaps towards the end of the year but suggest buying Aussies sooner particularly since the rate is so good at over 2 AUD per GBP!

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR The Kiwi has weakened any may yet have further to fall with the currency experiencing a major sell off owing to lower demand for the currency following the rate cut to 3.25% earlier this month. With further easing on the cards by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand further falls seem likely. If you need to sell Kiwis I would suggest moving sooner as painful as it might be. Please contact me for more information on the timing of such transfers.

CANADIAN DOLLAR All the commodity currencies have been under pressure in the last few weeks, the CAD is no exception. On balance further CAD weakness seems probable as economic activity of their main trading partner the US slows and we also see Oil prices much lower in 2015 than previous years.

SOUTH AFRICAN RAND The Rand has weakened significantly as commodities suffer and political uncertainty continues to put pressure on the South African currency. Unfortunately any path back to strength for the Rand will be shortlived and if buying or selling this volatile currency I suggest making plans in advance.

What next? The pound is likely to rise further against most currencies as the scenarios above play out. Unfortunately there are never any guarantees on exchange rates and the only way to really know your price is to buy. The timing of when to do that is critical however and arming yourself with information is the best way to make an informed decision.

My name is Jonathan and as well as writing the blogs, have been quoted in national newspapers and helped thousands of clients with their foreign exchange payments. Whether moving overseas and making a one off payment or moving back to the UK making plans with your foreign exchange payments is key to getting the most for your money and making your life less stressful.

I am very confident I can offer some expertise and information to make your life easier plus save you some money in the process. For further information please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

Tuesday to be a key day for economic data for a number of currencies (Daniel Wright)

Tuesday has great potential to be an extremely volatile day for the Pound against a number of major currencies, starting off overnight with Chinese and Australian data due out in a few hours which will no doubt have an impact on the Australian Dollar.

The AUD has been sitting around the 2 mark for over a week now and data over the next 24-48 hours may finally be enough to push it through by more than the half a cent it has only been able to manage during its latest test of the resistance surrounding 2 it has met.

On Tuesday early morning we have Swiss unemployment rates released at 06:45am and any change to last months figure of 3.3% may have  impact on the Swiss Franc. Inflation figures for Switzerland follow shortly after this at 08:15am.

The U.K takes center stage next as we have trade balance figures at 09:30am and and inflation report hearing at 10:00am. The inflation report can sometimes have quite an impact on rates and I am sure that this occasion will not let us down. Personally I feel we may see comments on last months negative figure and the fact that the early Easter break may have led to this, obviously anything may happen but I feel Sterling may rise after this report.

Those with Euros to buy may not have much of a chance  as European GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures are also out at the same time and expectations are for 1% growth Year on year and 0.4% for the Quarter. Any release that differs to this could give the Euro a volatile morning.

We must not forget the on-going Greek saga either as there is still the chance that news regarding Greece may come out at any moment and depending on what it is may really move Euros exchange rates quite substantially.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out involving buying or selling either the Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc, Euro or Dollar and you want the very best rates of exchange, along with being kept up to date with market information then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) by emailing me personally on djw@currencies.co.uk

Economic reality sets in for the pound…

Well it didn’t take more than a week for the economic reality of the UK and sterling to be realised. The euphoria from the Conservative victory has passed as the Bank of England and Mark Carney revised down UK growth forecasts for next year. The prospects of raising interest rates in the UK look to be set out further and further as economic growth falls along with inflation. With the UK economy confirmed to have only grown 0.3%  in the first quarter of this year in the week leading up to the election expectations for sterling to carry on rising look very much misplaced.

Markets unfortunately have very short memories and often overreact to an initial move in one direction with a small kick back as investors take profits. This was definitely seen today as GBPEUR went from 1.4030 this morning to 1.3846 this afternoon. Not good news for all of those Euro buyers hanging on for 1.40!

Economic reality has today set in for sterling and anyone buying a foreign currency who was pleased with positive GBP movers following the unexpected election result, might want to cash in now before it drops further in the future.

For a detailed analysis of your situation and just what to expect when buying or selling the pound please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

The election and how it may impact on the Pound – Pound Sterling Forecast election special

The Election and the impact it may have on the Pound

Well if the polls are anything to go by we are in for a real roller coaster ride in the next 24 hours as the U.K head into voting stations in what may be the closest election in decades.

With political certainty being one of the key factors that have an effect on the value of a currency, Sterling may struggle until we have cemented not only who will be running the U.K but also how they plan to approach their reign.

One of the best ways of putting it is that if you were due to invest in a business (i.e the U.K/Pound) then it is highly unlikely you would take the plunge until you actually knew who would be running that business and how they planned to run it. Until we have some clear results from this election then we are in exactly that position, therefore demand in the Pound slows and Sterling’s value could more than likely drop.

I thought it may be prudent to outline the possibilities that may arise in the coming days, weeks or even months and how they could impact on the value of the Pound.

First and foremost, it does look like there is now a slim chance of any party achieving a majority. A majority would be where they can set up Government solely without the need for seeking out other parties to join together with to form what is known as a coalition.

In the unlikely event that we do see a majority for the Conservatives then I would not be surprised to see Sterling gain a lot of strength as it would show certainty and also with the economy currently performing fairly well, should be taken kindly by the markets. A Labour majority may not be so positive for Sterling initially as we may see quite a lot of change on the horizon for the U.K therefore investors may hold back to wait and see what changes may be made.

Hung Parliament

It is fairly likely that once results are announced we may see what is known as a hung Parliament. This is basically where no single political party wins a majority in the House of Commons and this is where things can really start to get interesting.

Essentially, there are usually 12 days allowed for incumbent Government (current holder of political office) to attempt to form a coalition. This may be trickier than before as the current party involved in the coalition (Lib Dems) has seemingly lost a large amount of support after not keeping to key points of their manifesto during 2010.

During this period I expect large volatility for the Pound and a limit order/stop loss contract may be a prudent approach. This is where you can set a particular level you wish to achieve or a lower limit you do not want to buy below and either may be secured automatically for you should the market price become available. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk or call our trading floor line on 01494 787478 for more information.

After 12 days (although it did take 13 last time around) if the Conservatives have failed to put together a coalition then the largest opposition party may be asked to put together a coalition. This has every potential to end up being the Labour party attempting to put something together with the SNP (Scottish National Party).

Should this be the case then I feel Sterling may really suffer as the SNP have already commented that they would like to have another referendum on Scottish independence and I would be highly surprised that they would agree to anything without the potential of this taking place. When we had the vote for Scottish independence last year and the chance of a yes vote heightened, Sterling dropped off by over 4% in a few days so with the potential of this looming, even sometime in the future the Pound will more than likely suffer.

In the event that no party can put together a coalition then we may have a situation of ‘no overall control’ which was seen a number of times in the twentieth century. This would make life hard for the Pound and would lead to a second election later in the year and again may lead to a tricky period for the U.K and indeed the Pound for a number of months.

All in all if you are looking to buy or sell foreign currency in the coming days, weeks or months then it is extremely important that you make your account manager here at currencies.co.uk fully aware. If you are working to a particular budget then our contract options may be a sensible approach, you can book an exchange rate for anything up to a year in advance for just a small deposit, helping you to budget well in advance for the year ahead. If you would like any assistance or one of our friendly traders to explain the various options available to you then either email me on djw@currencies.co.uk   or call us directly on 01494 787 478.

Sterling rises again but for how long?

Exchange rates are like elastic bands, you stretch and stretch until suddenly, “BANG!” and your rate is gone!

I would be so pleased if I was buying a foreign currency with sterling in 2015. GBPEUR has risen almost 15 cents since the start of the year, against the Aussie and Kiwi sterling is at multi years. GBPCAD has been over 1.90 and GBPZAR is comfortably above 18! Is this going to carry on with the most uncertain election in years just around the corner?

Much of sterling’s strength is due to other currencies being weaker. Notably the Euro which has weakened to multi year lows against all currencies. The outcome of all of this could not be so rosy with the election coming up. In short if you are transferring currency in the coming weeks or months please don’t take the current rates of exchange for granted, it could end up very costly. I was working when the last election took place, sterling lost 5 cents in the weeks leading up to the election. The same was true of the Scottish Referendum. Now sterling did recover afterwards but is that really a risk to take? The distinction between those two events and next week’s election is the range of uncertain outcomes.

Even if you don’t need to buy currency just yet making some plans in advance is always sensible when it comes to finance. As a wise man once said ‘A good financial plan is a road map that shows us exactly how the choices we make today will affect our future’. 

For more information on the currency markets and other inspiring quotes please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

FOMC Minutes show a split decision on rate hikes (Daniel Wright)

The latest set of Federal Reserve minutes from the last interest rate decision released this evening have actually shown that even the Fed are currently torn on when to raise interest rates.

An interest rate hike or more the timing of the interest rate hike has been key to the strength of the Dollar over the past few months with many major analysts expecting to see a hike this summer.

Now that it appears that the members of the Fed are actually quite split you would imagine that the Dollar may actually gain strength but at present it is still the best of the three majors.

With numerous problems within the Eurozone and a pending tight election for the U.K expected to hold Sterling back the Dollar is still well and truly holding ground.

Personally I expect this to continue however depending on the result of the election there is a high chance of a Sterling fight back should there be no major changes in terms of Government for the U.K.

If you have the need to exchange any currency in the coming days, weeks or months then it is key to have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side for it. The company we work for has won awards both for our exchange rates and customer service so even if you are already set up with a broker it may be well worth you getting in touch with me directly and should save you money.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to contact you personally. I look forward to hearing from you.

Will the pound fall or rise next week?

Next week could be a very challenging time for sterling exchange rates! We will enter the month of April, the month before the UK’s General election. This event is widely predicted to cause GBP losses and anyone buying or selling the pound should really take stock of the excellent improvements in their favour this year.

The pound has struggled in recent weeks as the prospect of raising interest rates by the Bank of England moves out further. Lower Inflation has meant there is less need to raise interest rates and comments by Andy Haldane, a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee that interest rates may need to fall rather than raise did little for confidence this week. Hence the reason GBP rates fell this week.

Mark Carney turned the coin over with comments an interest rate hike was in fact more likely, hence GBP strength today. Such volatility underlining the sensitivity markets can have to comments and economic data. On the whole the pound is up at multi year highs against the Euro, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar and the Rand. The only currency the pound is struggling against is the US dollar!

All in all the exchange rate is likely to fall next month at some point owing to the uncertainty of the election. This will impact both buyers and sellers of the pound so making plans in advance is in my opinion sensible. For more information on all of your options please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling exchange rate movements today – Quiet week for economic data this week (Daniel Wright)

First and foremost our sincere condolences to anyone involved in the air crash today, always deeply saddening to hear such news.

Regarding currency, we have seen another fairly stable day for Sterling against the Euro and Dollar yet with fairly sharp drops against the Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.

We saw inflation figures out earlier this morning which immediately knocked the Pound as inflation dropped to a rather concerning 0% against market expectations of dropping down to 0.1%.

The inflation issue remains a concern for the Bank of England, along with the fact that Manufacturing figures at the start of the week showing the U.k manufacturing levels are really down.

This may be partially down to the fact that Sterling has been so strong against the Euro of late which has possibly led to European clients of U.K businesses seeking to buy their goods and services from elsewhere in Europe instead of from the U.K as Sterling is just so expensive for them.

With this in mind it is no surprise that the 1.40 level for GBP/EUR did not stick around for long and although there are many problems still within Europe I personally still do not see Sterling gaining significant ground against the Euro in the coming weeks, so if you have a pending requirement to buy Euros for your business or to purchase a property overseas then it may be prudent to look at making a purchase soon rather than potentially seeing another boat of opportunity sail away.

If you have the need to exchange any currency in the coming days, weeks or months then it is key to have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side for it. The company we work for has won awards both for our exchange rates and customer service so even if you are already set up with a broker it may be well worth you getting in touch with me directly and should save you money.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to contact you personally. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Sterling Euro creeps down from 1.40 – Market poised on Federal Reserve decision tomorrow and RBA minutes confirm future interest rate cut is probable (Daniel Wright)

An interesting day on the currency markets for Sterling, seeing the rate come down from 1.40 against the Euro, finished the day in the mid 1.47s against the Dollar and ended close to 1.94 against the Australian Dollar.

Earlier this morning European inflation figures were one of the main drivers for a little Euro strength which has been an extremely rare occurrence over the past few weeks. This gave those looking to sell Euros a brief opportunity to achieve a slightly better price and showed again just how important it is to buy on spikes when they occur and not to get greedy and miss out.

There is every chance we may see the rate push back through 1.40 but it is key to remember that if you are buying Euros then you are almost already a whopping 10% up on the rate at the turn of the year so if you are in the process of buying a property overseas with Euros it may be prudent to at least lock in a portion of your funds as there are still plenty of issues that could bring the rate back down… One being the election.

If you are looking to buy or indeed sell Euros in the near future and you would like my assistance and to get not only award winning exchange rates but a high level of customer service then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Anyone in the position of selling Dollars will be pleased with the last few weeks movements as we saw the rate burst through the 1.50 mark for the first time in a few years. Tomorrow we have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and monetary policy statement which will be a key indicator as to when the Fed may look to raise interest rates and could lead to quite a volatile evening for the Dollar.

For Australian Dollar followers the RBA commented last night in their latest meeting minutes that they would cut interest rates if they needed to in the future which suggests there is every chance of an interest rate cut and the Australian Dollar to weaken again in the coming months.

An interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for a currency and a hike in rates is generally positive and with exchange rates moving on speculation as well as fact even the slightest hint of a cut or hike can lead to quite a lot of market movement.

Tomorrow is an extremely busy day for those with Sterling to exchange to or from any other currency. We have the Bank of England minutes from their last interest rate decision at 09:30am and the budget at 12:30pm so be sure to keep a keen eye on the rates on and shortly after these times.

Once again if you have an exchange to carry out then I welcome all new clients and can generally get better exchange rates than any other company out there so even if you are already set up with a broker there is a good chance you can still save money. All you need to do to get in touch is email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a number and an explanation of what you are looking to do and I will make sure I get in touch.

This site is protected by Comment SPAM Wiper.