Tag Archives: exchange
If you need to make some currency exchanges in the New Year involving the pound, you should be very much aware of some volatility expected on exchange rates. It is important to note that making firm predictions is impossible but just like we predicted in the Spring sterling would rise against the major currencies towards the middle and end of the year we can now make a prediction in the New Year sterling is likely to fall. We cannot tell you exactly how much by or which date but falls of up to ten cents on GBPEUR and 15 cents on GBPUSD wouldn’t be completely out of the question.
How can you make such a forecast? Well primarily I am basing this one major event, that is the General Election. Political Uncertainty and Economic Uncertainty are two key reasons to sell the pound today. These two factors are likely to combine and undermine much of the confidence we have seen behind sterling in 2014.
Economic Uncertainty – The sums don’t add up. The UK is still spending much more than it receives in tax receipts which is ballooning the public debt. Much slower growth than forecast will obscure the Chancellor and the OBR’s (Office of Budget Responsibility) plans for the economy to heal itself through more tax income. The Eurozone is slowing down, China and the global economy are slowing down, where exactly will all this growth come from? The current plans set out by Mr Osborne some 4 years ago were well received by markets at the time but how much patience is there? How long will workers and business stand by the current government with no real signs of the improvements promised and discussed?
Headlines surrounding the lack of any major economic progress by the government are likely to dominate the New Year and this will in my opinion combine with Political Uncertainty to fuel a sell off on sterling.
Political Uncertainty - It is very rare the government of the day increase their share of the vote when challenging for a second term. This is because it is more than likely the government has lost popularity by nature of being in government and the opposition can pick holes in their abilities. The Tories whose laissez faire approach to economic policy is generally the favoured approach by the markets (versus the uncertainty of Labour getting us in more debt) will likely lose their hold on parliament and require further support in the form of another coalition. Will it be the Liberal Democrats? Unlikely, they have lost swathes of support in the UK. Will it be UKIP? They plan to leave the EU immediately which in the short term at least would be terrible for UK plc as business and government has to completely renegotiate international relationships.
The Tories are also talking about an in or our referendum on Europe. The prospect of the UK leaving the EU is potentially disastrous for the UK. Attitudes towards the UK as a centre for global business will deteriorate and we will, at least in the short term suffer from a loss of inward investment.
Labour’s economic plans are not well thought out and involve some fairly draconian measures which will ultimately limit competition and drive investment overseas.
When you look at how sterling reacted to the Scottish Referendum in September we are reminded of the potential for political and economic uncertainty to affect markets. If you need to make a transfer involving the pound in the New Year making some plans now might well be a wise move because what is very clear is that the market shave not yet factored in any of the issues outlined above as of yet. Whether this trend manifests in January or the week before the election is impossible to say. But holding on to find out is the risk and with the pound at such great levels compared to averages of the last five years, it would appear any decision to hold on too long may become very costly.
To keep up to date with market ‘spike notifications’ and ‘rate alerts’ or for a personal forecast for your situation please contact me Jonathan on firstname.lastname@example.org
GBPEUR has fallen from 1.2755 as the high today back down towards 1.2637 as Mario Draghi disappointed on the big Eurozone ‘QE’ question. In fact what we saw was him refrain from announcing a full blown QE operation. This caused the Euro to strengthen and I think represents a good opportunity for anyone selling the Euro in the future. Longer term it does seem very likely that the Euro will be weaker against the pound, on balance if you are buying sterling with Euros buying on the dips is the best way to maximise your transfer.
The big gamble on GBP rates in 2015 is going to be the election. It would not be surprising to see an increase in voter apathy and the old 2 or 3 way party system split yet further. If you have any major transactions in the New Year making some careful plans now might be a very good idea. We offer a range of contract options including the option to fix prices for the future and trade automatically at certain higher or lower rates. A quick discussion with us over the best strategy to maximise your deal really might be best the course of action. Just look at the high to low movements today! A well placed order could really make a big difference in rates on a large volume of currency.
If you wish to learn more please contact me Jonathan directly on email@example.com
Sterling exchange rate latest – Economic data due out soon that may cause volatility (Daniel Wright)
The Pound has dropped against most major currencies during trading today, however we have seen a positive movement for Sterling against both the Norwegian Krone and Canadian Dollar.
The Pound in general appears to have fallen slightly out of fashion this week but anyone looking to buy either NOK or CAD in the coming days or weeks will have been pleased to see a decision from oil ministers to keep their output target unchanged. With oil prices being key to both of these particular currencies this news weakened both off with the Canadian Dollar losing roughly half a percent and Norwegian Krone losing over 1%.
We have plenty of economic data due out in the coming few days, first and foremost we have consumer confidence figures due out for the U.K which are actually released shortly after midnight. Consumer confidence is a measure of the general feeling of consumers and a positive figure may give the Pound strength yet negative may lead to quite the opposite.
Tomorrow morning is key for those that have the requirement to either buy or sell the Euro as we see inflation figures released at 10:00am. Inflation has been one of the key talking points during European Central Bank interest rate decisions and the press conference shortly after as there had been a fear of deflation which did lead to head of the ECB Mario Draghi taking fiscal action.
Later on in the day we have Canadian growth figures which may either give the Canadian Dollar a chance to recover or kick it whilst it is down. Expectations are for a positive figure but as regular readers will know the market is here to surprise us.
Over the weekend we also have an extremely important vote surrounding Switzerland which may have an effect on the Swiss Franc and the price of gold. A great overview of that can be seen by clicking here.
If you have foreign currency exchange in the coming days, weeks or months then it may be well worth you getting in contact with me directly. You can email me on firstname.lastname@example.org with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to call you personally. I would be extremely surprised if I could not better any exchange rate that you have already been offered.
Happy thanksgiving to our friends over in America – I look forward to speaking to you soon.
Currency Forecast 2015 – Knowing what may happen in the future allows you to free up time and limit your risk…
The pound has been one of the best performers of 2014. Will this be the case for 2015? I have to say for the earlier part of 2015 it looks highly unlikely as a very uncertain General Election should cause GBP weakness. We saw this with the Scottish referendum in September. It is not just the outcome here that is important. Business confidence will be significantly lower as both international and domestic businesses alongside individuals refrain from key decisions owing to the uncertainty. This election will be fought and possibly won or lost on the European question and this will greatly unsettle financial markets which in my opinion have failed to so far price this important event in.
Generally speaking the raising and lowering of interest rates causes a currency to fluctuate. If a central bank actually raise rates (or market observers think they might in the future) the currency should strengthen. If there are thoughts that they will lower rates the currency will weaken.
Applying this to the UK, expectations for most of the summer the bank would raise interest rates caused the pound to spike. Remember currency markets move on rumour and speculation as much as fact. This speculation has now been pushed back (and may be pushed even further back) into 2015, if not 2016. If this is the case it is likely sterling will likely fall further.
If you are expecting a larger currency purchase in the first half of 2015 there might be some good arguments for utilising a forward contract to fix current exchange rates. We were in an almost identical position 2 years ago on GBPEUR approaching Christmas and by March had dropped some ten cents.
Part of our service is keep you updated and examine strategies that will protect you from unexpected swings on the currency market so please email on email@example.com to discuss the options available to you.
Inflation is the rate at which prices rise or fall. Rapidly rising or falling prices can destabilise an economy and managing Inflation has been a key aspect of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) economic policy in 2014.
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB has stated that the new year may see the ECB ramp up their Quantitative Easing (QE) programme. The ECB’s approach to their economic situation has changed in 2014 from reactive to proactive with a range of measures to try and encourage growth being put in place.
QE (sometimes referred to as printing money) is where a central bank injects money into an economy to rejuvenate it and some observers have predicted the future will be a ‘stagflationary’ period in the Eurozone. This is where an economy fails to grow and inflation is a problem. It might be that just like Japan and the US before the ECB needs to continuously be ramping up the QE presses, this could lead to Euro volatility depending how the market digests such news.
Predicting 2015’s movements on Euro rates could prove very difficult but with a large amount of policy having been decided on in 2014, it may be the Euro is more susceptible to movements from other currencies.
As we expected the dollar has recovered but just like with sterling the rise is mainly linked to expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in 2015.
The US economy is finally performing well but is this mainly down to the trillions of dollars we have seen pumped into markets from their QE programme? The end of the Fed’s QE programme may yet unsettle markets, slowdowns in China, the Eurozone and the UK could see the US once again roll out the QE presses.
I would personally not be holding on for them to raise interest rates anytime soon and USDGDP traders might wish to take stock of the 15 cents improvements.
For more information on the forecast and to be kept up to date with the latest news please contact me on firstname.lastname@example.org
Sterling exchange rates remain fairly flat in trading today – Potential for Swiss National Bank to step in on the Franc again? Wage inflation key for Sterling this week (Daniel Wright)
The Pound has had a reasonably quiet day on the market against most major currencies gaining a little ground back against the Dollar after dropping to a 14 month low last week.
The main news of the day for the currency markets was growing speculation of the SNB (Swiss National Bank) possibly stepping in to devalue the Swiss Franc again as it is hovering dangerously close to the 1.20 mark against the Euro. The SNB have artificially attempted to keep the EUR/CHF rate above 1.20 for a number of years now and with the rate currently sat at the lowest point since November 2012 a move to alter this may be in the pipeline. Should the SNB actually look to do this then we may see the Swiss Franc drop against most major currencies so Sterling exchange rates against the Pound could spike up nicely.
The key for Sterling exchange rates in my opinion this week will be the wage inflation figures due out on Wednesday morning. Wage inflation is one of the most important factors towards an interest rate hike as although the economy does appear to be picking up, unless peoples wages are following suit then we are actually not moving too far in the right direction. Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has added in recent comments that wage inflation is vital for an interest rate hike so should this be moving in the right direction we may see the Pound have a good day although unemployment figures and the inflation report also have the potential to counter this.
If you are looking to carry out a currency transfer in the near future involving either buying or selling the Pound then it will be well worth you emailing me directly. I have now had thousands of clients contact me through this site and they have found that they are getting a smoother, more efficient service than their bank or current broker along with a better rate of exchange by using me. You can email me on email@example.com with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to assist you.
US ~Non Farm Payroll data is due tomorrow which could be a big market mover as it is the first one since the US stopped their QE programme. Today’s meeting with Mario Draghi might also be very interesting and should be a market mover, the least interesting thing is probably the UK’s Bank of England decision which is not expected to yield anything new.
How can you make a decision on when is the right time to enter the market if you don’t know what is happening? The idea of this blog is to provide information on just where rates are headed and make sure you get the best price when you do decide to enter the market. If you have a transaction that you need to consider why not get in touch with our specialist team to find out more about moving money internationally at the very best rates.
Sterling has done really well this year as the UK economy improves and investors position themselves for the UK to raise interest rates. Next year we would expect the UK elections to move the market, the increased uncertainty surrounding the political situation in the UK is bound to cause ripples on exchange rates.
When considering making a currency exchange understanding what is driving the exchange rate is vital to getting the most from the market. Please contact Jonathan on firstname.lastname@example.org for a quick overview of your position and to learn more about getting the best rates.
Sterling has had a mixed week against most major currencies, slipping slightly against the Euro and the Dollar yet making minor gains against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar.
As far as U.K economic data goes we had manufacturing data for the U.K which was fairly positive however construction and services data has been reasonably negative so the U.K has not had the best start to the month as far as economic data goes.
We still have some extremely key releases to come out this week with the main focus for anyone looking to buy or sell the Euro being the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference. For the past few months we have seen the Euro generally weaken during ECB rate decisions and the press conference thereafter due to the continued concerns of deflation in the Eurozone and head of the ECB Mario Draghi taking actions to try and counter act this. Recent European inflation figures actually suggested that what is being done at present is currently working as inflation has risen back up a little.
This may well be commented on in the ECB press conference tomorrow so if you have Euros to buy then this has the potential to give the Euro strength – The press conference is due at 13:30pm tomorrow and usually goes on for around an hour with the rates being exceedingly volatile during this period as investors hang off of Mario Draghi’s every word.
Overnight tonight we have the unemployment rate due out in Australia which could lead to sharp movements for the Australian Dollar outside of our trading hours tonight. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to remain at 6.1% so any change to this may bring quite a lot of market movement. With employment figures for New Zealand earlier in the week moving the New Zealand Dollar by two cents overnight it is certainly a release to be aware of.
Overnight on Thursday we also have the RBA Monetary Policy Statement in Australia which will inform us of any future economic policy to be introduced by Australia and any comments in it may lead to another volatile night for the Australian Dollar. Over the past few months Governor Glenn Stevens seems to have changed his mind like the wind on how happy he is about the strength of the Australian Dollar, the main view though being that he feels it is slightly overvalued so more comments like this may weaken the AUD and p[resent a buying opportunity.
Friday is a busy day for all major currencies. First and foremost we have the Trade Balance figures out for the U.K which will show the balance between imports and exports for the U.K economy for September a positive value shows a trade surplus and would be seen as positive for the Pound.
Later in the day we have Non-Farm payroll data from America and this can have an effect on all major currencies. It is a measure of the number of people in Non-Agricultural employment in America, Non Agricultural due to the fact that this can be seasonal. The reason it has an effect on all major currencies is because it can alter global attitude to risk and the figures predicted can quite often be quite a way out, so be sure to have a keen eye on exchange rate movements at 13:30pm on Friday.
Finally over in Canada we have their unemployment figures with expectations of a small rise from 6.8% to 6.9% which may be a negative for the Canadian Dollar.
If you are looking to carry out a currency transfer in the near future it may be prudent to let me know sooner rather than later so that I can keep you fully up to date with market movements. We also have a range of contract types available inclusive of forward contracts, stop loss and limit orders email me on email@example.com if you would like more information on how these orders work.
Should you find my updates helpful and interesting yet you have not yet registered an account with me then opening an account is completely free, carries no obligation to trade and puts you in the position to book out a rate as and when you wish. If you are currently using another broker or your bank then it is well worth getting in contact with me for a comparison as I would be highly surprised if I cannot save you money over your current currency option. All you need to do is email me (Daniel Wright) on firstname.lastname@example.org with a brief explanation and a contact number and i will be more than happy to contact you personally.
When considering making a currency exchange an understanding of what is driving the exchange rate is vital to getting the most from the market. How can you make a decision on when is the right time to enter the market if you don’t know what is happening? The idea of this blog is to provide information on just where rates are headed and make sure you get the best price when you do decide to enter the market.
Sterling has done really well this year as the UK economy improves and investors position themselves for the UK to raise interest rates. Next year we would expect the UK elections to move the market, the increased uncertainty surrounding the political situation in the UK is bound to cause ripples on exchange rates. If you have a transaction that you need to consider why not get in touch with our specialist team to find out more about moving money internationally at the very best rates.
Please contact me Jonathan on email@example.com for a quick overview of your position
Retail sales tomorrow morning and growth figures on Friday to be key for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)
Tomorrow morning we see the release of Retail Sales figures for the U.K followed by GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures on Friday morning.
Retail Sales are expected to have dropped off a little and growth figures are due to show economic growth for the third quarter of 2014 to be at 0.7%.
Sterling has had a fairly flat week as far as currency movements go so these next few days may give us a grandstand finish.
If you are looking to exchange foreign currency in the next few days or indeed weeks then feel free to get in touch with me directly, even if you want a quick comparison to make sure you are getting the most for your money.
You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on firstname.lastname@example.org with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.