Tag Archives: exchange

Sterling exchange rate latest – Economic data due out soon that may cause volatility (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has dropped against most major currencies during trading today, however we have seen a positive movement for Sterling against both the Norwegian Krone and Canadian Dollar.

The Pound in general appears to have fallen slightly out of fashion this week but anyone looking to buy either NOK or CAD in the coming days or weeks will have been pleased to see a decision from oil ministers to keep their output target unchanged. With oil prices being key to both of these particular currencies this news weakened both off with the Canadian Dollar losing roughly half a percent and Norwegian Krone losing over 1%.

We have plenty of economic data due out in the coming few days, first and foremost we have consumer confidence figures due out for the U.K which are actually released shortly after midnight. Consumer confidence is a measure of the general feeling of consumers and a positive figure may give the Pound strength yet negative may lead to quite the opposite.

Tomorrow morning is key for those that have the requirement to either buy or sell the Euro as we see inflation figures released at 10:00am. Inflation has been one of the key talking points during European Central Bank interest rate decisions and the press conference shortly after as there had been a fear of deflation which did lead to head of the ECB Mario Draghi taking fiscal action.

Later on in the day we have Canadian growth figures which may either give the Canadian Dollar a chance to recover or kick it whilst it is down. Expectations are for a positive figure but as regular readers will know the market is here to surprise us.

Over the weekend we also have an extremely important vote surrounding Switzerland which may have an effect on the Swiss Franc and the price of gold. A great overview of that can be seen by clicking here.

If you have foreign currency exchange in the coming days, weeks or months then it may be well worth you getting in contact with me directly. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to call you personally. I would be extremely surprised if I could not better any exchange rate that you have already been offered.

Happy thanksgiving to our friends over in America – I look forward to speaking to you soon.

Currency Forecast 2015 – Knowing what may happen in the future allows you to free up time and limit your risk…

GBP

The pound has been one of the best performers of 2014. Will this be the case for 2015? I have to say for the earlier part of 2015 it looks highly unlikely as a very uncertain General Election should cause GBP weakness. We saw this with the Scottish referendum in September. It is not just the outcome here that is important. Business confidence will be significantly lower as both international and domestic businesses alongside individuals refrain from key decisions owing to the uncertainty. This election will be fought and possibly won or lost on the European question and this will greatly unsettle financial markets which in my opinion have failed to so far price this important event in.

Generally speaking the raising and lowering of interest rates causes a currency to fluctuate. If a central bank actually raise rates (or market observers think they might in the future) the currency should strengthen. If there are thoughts that they will lower rates the currency will weaken.

Applying this to the UK, expectations for most of the summer the bank would raise interest rates caused the pound to spike. Remember currency markets move on rumour and speculation as much as fact. This speculation has now been pushed back (and may be pushed even further back) into 2015, if not 2016. If this is the case it is likely sterling will likely fall further.

If you are expecting a larger currency purchase in the first half of 2015 there might be some good arguments for utilising a forward contract to fix current exchange rates. We were in an almost identical position 2 years ago on GBPEUR approaching Christmas and by March had dropped some ten cents.

Part of our service is keep you updated and examine strategies that will protect you from unexpected swings on the currency market so please email on jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options available to you.

Euro

Inflation is the rate at which prices rise or fall. Rapidly rising or falling prices can destabilise an economy and managing Inflation has been a key aspect of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) economic policy in 2014.

Mario Draghi, President of the ECB has stated that the new year may see the ECB ramp up their Quantitative Easing (QE) programme. The ECB’s approach to their economic situation has changed in 2014 from reactive to proactive with a range of measures to try and encourage growth being put in place.

QE (sometimes referred to as printing money) is where a central bank injects money into an economy to rejuvenate it and some observers have predicted the future will be a ‘stagflationary’ period in the Eurozone. This is where an economy fails to grow and inflation is a problem. It might be that just like Japan and the US before the ECB needs to continuously be ramping up the QE presses, this could lead to Euro volatility depending how the market digests such news.

Predicting 2015’s movements on Euro rates could prove very difficult but with a large amount of policy having been decided on in 2014, it may be the Euro is more susceptible to movements from other currencies.

USD

As we expected the dollar has recovered but just like with sterling the rise is mainly linked to expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in 2015.

The US economy is finally performing well but is this mainly down to the trillions of dollars we have seen pumped into markets from their QE programme? The end of the Fed’s QE programme may yet unsettle markets, slowdowns in China, the Eurozone and the UK could see the US once again roll out the QE presses.

I would personally not be holding on for them to raise interest rates anytime soon and USDGDP traders might wish to take stock of the 15 cents improvements.

For more information on the forecast and to be kept up to date with the latest news please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBP Dips are worth capitalising on!

If you think recent drops on sterling were bad you should prepare for worse as these moves are likely to be extended in the future. Next year is a tremendous amount of uncertainty as to where the political situation in the UK will head.

If you are debating any currency transactions why not speak to one of our specialists regarding all of your options. Remember that you can forward buy your currency locking in current levels and rates. I would expect a recovery in  sterling down the line andI feel therefore current levels represent a very good opportunity to sell Euros for sterling.

If you wish to learn more about your situation why not email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling exchange rates remain fairly flat in trading today – Potential for Swiss National Bank to step in on the Franc again? Wage inflation key for Sterling this week (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has had a reasonably quiet day on the market against most major currencies gaining a little ground back against the Dollar after dropping to a 14 month low last week.

The main news of the day for the currency markets was growing speculation of the SNB (Swiss National Bank) possibly stepping in to devalue the Swiss Franc again as it is hovering dangerously close to the 1.20 mark against the Euro. The SNB have artificially attempted to keep the EUR/CHF rate above 1.20 for a number of years now and with the rate currently sat at the lowest point since November 2012 a move to alter this may be in the pipeline. Should the SNB actually look to do this then we may see the Swiss Franc drop against most major currencies so Sterling exchange rates against the Pound could spike up nicely.

The key for Sterling exchange rates in my opinion this week will be the wage inflation figures due out on Wednesday morning. Wage inflation is one of the most important factors towards an interest rate hike as although the economy does appear to be picking up, unless peoples wages are following suit then we are actually not moving too far in the right direction. Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has added in recent comments that wage inflation is vital for an interest rate hike so should this be moving in the right direction we may see the Pound have a good day although unemployment figures and the inflation report also have the potential to counter this.

If you are looking to carry out a currency transfer in the near future involving either buying or selling the Pound then it will be well worth you emailing me directly. I have now had thousands of clients contact me through this site and they have found that they are getting a smoother, more efficient service than their bank or current broker along with a better rate of exchange by using me. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to assist you.

Tomorrow’s Non Farm Payroll could be more important than the rate decisions today!

US ~Non Farm Payroll data is due tomorrow which could be a big market mover as it is the first one since the US stopped their QE programme. Today’s meeting with Mario Draghi might also be very interesting and should be a market mover, the least interesting thing is probably the UK’s Bank of England decision which is not expected to yield anything new.

How can you make a decision on when is the right time to enter the market if you don’t know what is happening? The idea of this blog is to provide information on just where rates are headed and make sure you get the best price when you do decide to enter the market. If you have a transaction that you need to consider why not get in touch with our specialist team to find out more about moving money internationally at the very best rates.

Sterling has done really well this year as the UK economy improves and investors position themselves for the UK to raise interest rates. Next year we would expect the UK elections to move the market, the increased uncertainty surrounding the political situation in the UK is bound to cause ripples on exchange rates.

When considering making a currency exchange understanding what is driving the exchange rate is vital to getting the most from the market.  Please contact  Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk for a quick overview of your position and to learn more about getting the best rates.

Sterling exchange rate forecast – The coming days and what may happen to the Pound (Daniel Wright)

Sterling has had a mixed week against most major currencies, slipping slightly against the Euro and the Dollar yet making minor gains against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar.

As far as U.K economic data goes we had manufacturing data for the U.K which was fairly positive however construction and services data has been reasonably negative so the U.K has not had the best start to the month as far as economic data goes.

We still have some extremely key releases to come out this week with the main focus for anyone looking to buy or sell the Euro being the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference. For the past few months we have seen the Euro generally weaken during ECB rate decisions and the press conference thereafter due to the continued concerns of deflation in the Eurozone and head of the ECB Mario Draghi taking actions to try and counter act this. Recent European inflation figures actually suggested that what is being done at present is currently working as inflation has risen back up a little.

This may well be commented on in the ECB press conference tomorrow so if you have Euros to buy then this has the potential to give the Euro strength – The press conference is due at 13:30pm tomorrow and usually goes on for around an hour with the rates being exceedingly volatile during this period as investors hang off of Mario Draghi’s every word.

Overnight tonight we have the unemployment rate due out in Australia which could lead to sharp movements for the Australian Dollar outside of our trading hours tonight. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to remain at 6.1% so any change to this may bring quite a lot of market movement. With employment figures for New Zealand earlier in the week moving the New Zealand Dollar by two cents overnight it is certainly a release to be aware of.

Overnight on Thursday we also have the RBA Monetary Policy Statement in Australia which will inform us of any future economic policy to be introduced by Australia and any comments in it may lead to another volatile night for the Australian Dollar. Over the past few months Governor Glenn Stevens seems to have changed his mind like the wind on how happy he is about the strength of the Australian Dollar, the main view though being that he feels it is slightly overvalued so more comments like this may weaken the AUD and p[resent a buying opportunity.

Friday is a busy day for all major currencies. First and foremost we have the Trade Balance figures out for the U.K which will show the balance between imports and exports for the U.K economy for September a positive value shows a trade surplus and would be seen as positive for the Pound.

Later in the day we have Non-Farm payroll data from America and this can have an effect on all major currencies. It is a measure of the number of people in Non-Agricultural employment in America, Non Agricultural due to the fact that this can be seasonal. The reason it has an effect on all major currencies is because it can alter global attitude to risk and the figures predicted can quite often be quite a way out, so be sure to have a keen eye on exchange rate movements at 13:30pm on Friday.

Finally over in Canada we have their unemployment figures with expectations of a small rise from 6.8% to 6.9% which may be a negative for the Canadian Dollar.

If you are looking to carry out a currency transfer in the near future it may be prudent to let me know sooner rather than later so that I can keep you fully up to date with market movements. We also have a range of contract types available inclusive of forward contracts, stop loss and limit orders email me on djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like more information on how these orders work.

Should you find my updates helpful and interesting yet you have not yet registered an account with me then opening an account is completely free, carries no obligation to trade and puts you in the position to book out a rate as and when you wish. If you are currently using another broker or your bank then it is well worth getting in contact  with me for a comparison as I would be highly surprised if I cannot save you money over your current currency option. All you need to do is email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief explanation and a contact number and i will be more than happy to contact you personally.

 

 

 

What to look out for on the pound in the coming months…

When considering making a currency exchange an understanding of what is driving the exchange rate is vital to getting the most from the market. How can you make a decision on when is the right time to enter the market if you don’t know what is happening? The idea of this blog is to provide information on just where rates are headed and make sure you get the best price when you do decide to enter the market.

Sterling has done really well this year as the UK economy improves and investors position themselves for the UK to raise interest rates. Next year we would expect the UK elections to move the market, the increased uncertainty surrounding the political situation in the UK is bound to cause ripples on exchange rates. If you have a transaction that you need to consider why not get in touch with our specialist team to find out more about moving money internationally at the very best rates.

Please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk for a quick overview of your position

Retail sales tomorrow morning and growth figures on Friday to be key for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

Tomorrow morning we see the release of Retail Sales figures for the U.K followed by GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures on Friday morning.

Retail Sales are expected to have dropped off a little and growth figures are due to show economic growth for the third quarter of 2014 to be at 0.7%.

Sterling has had a fairly flat week as far as currency movements go so these next few days may give us a grandstand finish.

If you are looking to exchange foreign currency in the next few days or indeed weeks then feel free to get in touch with me directly, even if you want a quick comparison to make sure you are getting the most for your money.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Pound Sterling Forecast – The Week ahead for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

There are plenty of points of interest for those following Sterling exchange rates this week so below is a summary of what lies ahead and how it may affect your rate of exchange this week. Please do remember that if you find our information useful then we do also carry out currency exchange for clients looking to buy or sell foreign property, businesses that have the need for foreign exchange and all sorts of different reasons so it is well worth getting in touch with me (Daniel Wright) by email on djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like access to award winning exchange rates and customer service.

Tomorrow is reasonably quiet for most major currencies similar to today, however for those following the Australian Dollar you should be aware that deputy Governor of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) speaking this morning at 09:55am which, depending on what he says may lead to a little market volatility for AUD exchange rates throughout the course of the morning. Overnight we saw a flurry of economic data from Chinas including growth figures which came out than expected and have indeed give the AUD a little already today.

Wednesday is when the data really starts to hot up and we have data that may affect GBP, USD, CAD, AUD and NZD rates of exchange so if you are looking to trade any of these currencies in the near future you need to make us aware so we can get in touch if there is a large movement. Feel free to email me Daniel Wright directly on djw@currencies.co.uk or to call us on 01494 787 478 so that we can act as your eyes and ears on the market and highlight any buying opportunities.

U.K starts the ball rolling at 09:30am with the Bank of England minutes from their last interest rate decision. The minutes will basically let us know how the 9 members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) voted at the latest decision in terms of interest rate change. Any change in favour the number of members voting in favour of an interest rate hike could give the Pound a boost and if we have fewer members opting for rates to rise, Sterling may drop substantially.

At 13:30pm we have inflation data from the States and expectations are for a slight drop from 1.7% to 1.6%. We may see a little Dollar weakness if inflation levels are any lower than this level, just like we saw a week ago for Sterling when rates plummeted following a much lower than expected CPI level.

Canada quite possibly has the most to offer in terms of economic data on Wednesday with Retail Sales, Interest rate decision, rate statement and a press conference all out between 13:30pm and 16:15pm. Retail Sales are expected to have improved slightly which may push the Canadian Dollar back down toward the 1.80 level but do be cautious that with the rate statement and during the press conference a dip may be temporary as any negative comments could knock the Canadian Dollar straight back down again.

The Antipodean currencies then take center stage with Governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens speaking at 22:00pm and inflation data coming out for New Zealand at 22:45pm. Both of these data releases are out overnight any many regular readers will remember it was only a short period of time ago that the RBA Governor commented that he felt the AUD was overvalued which led to sharp movements for the Australian Dollar overnight. If you are looking to buy or sell AUD or NZD then it may be prudent to look at one of our various contract types including a limit order or stop loss, contact me to find out how these options work.

Sterling then takes the reigns for the rest of the week with Retail Sales figures due on Thursday morning and GDP (Gross Domestic product) data due on Friday morning. Expectations are for Retail Sales to have dropped off a little and for our growth figures also to have retracted ever so slightly which may give the pound a tough end to the week.

If you would like to make the very most of your money then it is extremely important you have a proactive broker on your side with access to great rates of exchange. Feel free to contact me direct by email djw@currencies.co.uk or calling 01494 787 478 and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.

 

 

Sterling rates are looking very tempting now….

As we get closer to the general election in 2015 the pound will become vulnerable, just look at what the uncertainty surrounding Scotland did to the pound. If you are buying an overseas property or planning business forecasts in 2015, this will pass very quickly.

Very importantly for October Business confidence and spending generally is likely to have dipped in September so the releases this month which have already shown losses for the pound are likely to continue and underlines why current levels should not be ignored.

If you are considering buying or selling the pound in the future making some careful preparations is always sensible. Contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

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