Tag Archives: forecast

When is the Supreme Court case in the UK and how will this affect the pound?

The pending UK Supreme Court case in the UK is critical to the short term movements on sterling exchange rates and clients with a requirement to buy or sell the pound should be making plans around this. Expectations for the initial reaction to the decision are reasonably clear but once the decision is made we will then be faced with a whole new set of questions over the next direction for the Brexit vote. Markets have loosely priced in the expectation the previous decision will be upheld but there are no guarantees!

If the previous decision is upheld then the pound should rise. GBPEUR could hit 1.17-1.18, GBPUSD upper end would be 1.25, GBPAUD 1.70 and GBPNZD towards 1.80. The pound could easily fall up to 4% if the court case does not go the way markets have been predicting. There is a very strong chance we could be looking at rates on GBPEUR retesting 1.10-1.12 territory whilst on GBPUSD we could slip below 1.20. GBPAUD may drop below 1.60 and GBPNZD below 1.70.

The biggest problem is knowing when this case will be decided. With the Supreme Court reopening tomorrow from their recess period the news could come as early as tomorrow. I expect it will be between tomorrow and next week which gives clients looking to buy or sell sterling a small window of opportunity to plan in.

In order to maximise such an opportunity the best strategy in such a market is number one to be prepared and number two to understand your options. My order book is currently very high with ‘Limit’ and ‘Stop / Loss’ orders. A ‘Limit’ order allows you trade at a higher level whilst a ‘Stop / Loss’ order allows you to protect your rate should the market fall. In such an uncertain and potentially volatile market I feel the best way forward is to use a combination of the above tools to help limit your exposure and trade on any improvements.

If you have a transaction to consider and wish for some assistance with the timing and planning of any exchanges please feel free to contact me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk with an overview of your position and preferably a phone number so I can quickly contact you.

Thank you for reading this post and I look forward to answering any questions on the markets or the services we can provide.

Jonathan Watson

 

The ‘Trump Train’ market surge fades but Sterling manages to hold on to it’s gains, but for how long? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has surged across the board through November for a number of reasons, with the main catalysts being the likely delay to invoking Article 50 and beginning the Brexit process, and Trumps election victory in the US boosting sentiment surrounding the UK economy.

Those planning on converting Pounds into another foreign currency have been dealt a good hand this month, as the Pound has gained clawed back quite alot of it’s losses since the Brexit vote.

This month alone the Pound has gained 5 cents vs the US Dollar and 7 cents vs the Euro. In monetary terms a £200,000 GBP to EUR currency exchange is now gaining an additional €15,000+ in the space of 30 days which just highlights the importance of timing large currency conversions.

As a specialist currency brokerage we’re here to monitor the currency markets on behalf of our clients, and in volatile trading conditions like we’ve seen this month our service can really save clients large amounts of money due to the assistance with timings and reacting to market movements.

There will be manufacturing and construction figures released later this week which could affect GBP exchange rates depending on their outcome, and if you are planning a currency exchange between the Pound and another major currency and would like to plan around these events, do get in touch regarding timings and exchange rates.

The Pound has so far held onto it’s gains made this month, but currencies do tend to fall quicker than they climb and if some ‘Hard Brexit’ related news is released there is a chance the Pound could lose some or even all of it’s recent gains.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. 

You can also call in and ask reception to speak with me (Joe) on 01494 787 478. 

How will the Autumn Statement impact pound sterling exchange rates?

Philip Hammond has no easy task ahead this week as he sets out his plans for the UK economy moving forward. With Brexit still dominating politics and economics there is lots of pressure on the Chancellor to outline an economic plan of Britain that will match the commitments of the new Prime Minister and her colleagues. As always there have been a few leaks in the press over the weekend so let us look at these and work out how it will affect the economy and the pound moving forward.

You don’t have to travel too far in the UK to be reminded of the problems with UK roads. Report suggest over £1bn worth of investment in UK roads with a new expressway between Oxford and Cambridge. Infrastructure spending is to be much welcomed as it will increase efficiency of travel around the UK which will only help business. This should be good for the pound in many respects since it will help the UK economy longer term.

There is a flipside in that government borrowing is at record highs and further borrowing goes against the grain of what previous Tory administrations worked hard to (unsuccessfully) establish. If you look to the last election the Tories gained power on economic prowess promising not to tip the country into massive debts which of course they still did. If the current administration now spends lots it could risk upsetting the financial markets that so strongly backed the Tories last year.

Times have of course changed and given the backdrop of Brexit and a mood that tough austerity just isn’t necessary we could see more leeway from markets. On the whole I would expect the Autumn statement to be cautiously seen as sterling positive but any clients looking to buy or sell this week should be preparing their exchange today to limit their exposure and be preparing for the date.

If you are considering an exchange and wish to talk to a specialist about the relevant issues and ins and outs of transferring money at the very best rates of exchange please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk or please fill in the form below.

 

Will the pound rise or fall on the US election?

Sterling has risen as investors get excited over the potential for the UK to avoid a hard Brexit. Investors have become very fearful of the full implications of a hard Brexit. Essentially access to the single market is a key factor in the strength and attractiveness of the UK economy. The rates for the pound have now increased as this prospect becomes shaky but will it last? If you have a transfer to make in the future there is all the important US election next week and it could easily be the end of this current surge in sterling’s value.

The High Court have ruled that the UK government will have to seek parliamentary approval to invoke Article 50 the legal mechanism to trigger Brexit. The court ruled that Theresa May must go to the House of Commons and Lords to get a rubber stamp of her plans. This means that whilst Brexit is still likely to happen the Government might be forced to water down the proposals. All in what this means is much more uncertainty for the pound!

Next week is the US election and I expect the pound will fall further eroding these excellent gains. Typically a currency will strengthen once an election is over as you get certainty of the situation. In this case the US dollar may rise and this will weaken the pound. Sterling’s most heavily traded currency pairing is GBPUSD so if GBPUSD drops lows because the US dollar is rising it will weigh the pound down against other currencies.

This market is still very tough to call but sterling is not out of the woods with the latest UK political developments. If you are considering a currency transfer in the future you may benefit from the experience of a currency specialist who can keep you up to date with the market and all of your options. I have worked here for almost ten years and lent my comments and insight to newpapers and also BBC News.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk or filling in the form below.

Sterling exchange rate forecasts lowered once again, is now the time to act? (Joseph Wright)

I recently outlined forecasts for the GBP/EUR pair of 1.0922 – 1.1000 from Credit Suisse, and unfortunately now for those hoping for a Sterling recovery, the same bank has lowered their forecast to 1.0526, and this is based on a 3 month period.

The bank has also offered a price target for the GBP/USD pair of 1.1700, so I guess the bottom line is that they’re currently expecting further Sterling downside.

Despite these prominent predication the Pound has actually held it’s ground over the past couple of days after falling on almost a daily basis for almost 2 weeks after Theresa May publicly confirmed suspicions that the invocation of Article 50 will go ahead in March of next year.

The Pound fell because many had hopes for a ‘Soft Brexit’, but those hopes have now all but faded after May’s decision to begin the UK’s separation of the EU earlier than many had hoped.

The reason for the Pound staging a fightback has been some better than expected inflation figures from the UK which came out earlier this week. The figure came out much better than expected at 1% which puts the UK on track to reach it’s 2% target, but I do think inflation could get out of hand if the Pound continues to fall at such a fast rate.

Those planning a currency conversion which involves exchanging the Pound for another currency may wish to consider making that conversion sooner as opposed to later, because if the forecast from Credit Suisse as well from an increasing number of banks are to become true, the Pound has a further 6% or so to fall which equates to large amounts of money on the larger currency conversions.

If you would like to discuss timings and exchange rates, feel free to contact me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also get in touch by telephone on 01494 787 478, just ask reception for Joe.

 

Pound Sterling Forecast – A busy week ahead for Sterling exchange rates with lots of data out (Daniel Wright)

Sterling exchange rates are no doubt in for a busy and volatile week this week with plenty of economic data releases due out for the market to get stuck in to.

I have listed the main key releases below and what to look out for. If you click on the links then you will get a more detailed explanation of what each release is and how it may impact the markets.

For further information, a live quote to see if you can save money over your bank or current broker then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to assist you personally. It still surprises me how many people contact me that felt they were getting a good rate with their broker that they had been using for years only to find out that they could be getting so much more through us, always make sure you check as it can make the difference of hundreds if not thousands of Pounds in your back pocket.

Tuesday, Oct 18
01:30 AUSTRALIA (AUD)

RBA Meeting’s Minutes Report

 
09:30 U.K (GBP)

Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Sep)

 
09:30 U.K (GBP)

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Sep)

 
Wednesday, Oct 19
03:00 CHINA (AUD)

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q3)

 
03:00 CHINA (AUD)

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q3)

 
15:00 CANADA (CAD)

Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report

 
15:00 CANADA (CAD)

BOC Rate Statement

 
15:00 CANADA (CAD)

BOC Interest Rate Decision

 
Thursday, Oct 20
01:30 AUSTRALIA (AUD)

Employment Change s.a. (Sep)

 
01:30 AUSTRALIA (AUD)

Unemployment Rate s.a. (Sep)

 
12:45 EUROPE (EUR)

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct 20)

 
12:45 EUROPE (EUR)

ECB deposit rate decision

 
13:30 EUROPE (EUR)

ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference

On top of these releases we also have Unemployment data and Retail Sales data out for the U.K on Wednesday and Thursday morning and both of these may also have quite an impact.

How Sterling ends the week will really rely of two factors… How well U.K data comes out and what happens around the rest of the world.

Key focal point of the week is the European Central Bank and what they decide to do with their QE (Quantitative Easing). This will be released on Thursday afternoon and can lead to an extremely volatile exchange rate for GBP/EUR. The press conference shortly after by Mario Draghi (Head of the ECB) can also throw up some great opportunities for those looking to buy or sell Euros.

I personally assist clients that have the need to exchange large sums of currency either for their business, to buy/sell property or even for wages too.

My book of clients ranges from premier league footballers and large company directors Mr and Mrs Jones buying a retirement home in Spain and I always welcome new enquiries. Every individual is dealt with on a personal level and my main aim is to save you money when you do decide to book out your rate and also to try and help you time your exchange by giving you the market information you may struggle to get elsewhere, in simple terms.

Feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly by emailing me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you to discuss the various options available to you.

 

Will the pound now fall lower?

Will the pound now fall lower is a big concern on financial markets and the most likely answer is that yes it will more than likely fall lower. Pretty much every major bank out there is now predicting a rate on GBPEUR between 1.08 and 0.95 in the coming months. Whilst GBPUSD predictions range from sub 1.20 to parity. Having witnessed the falls of the last two weeks it is quite difficult to rule out anything and even last night we saw further moves lower on sterling rates following a fairly flat Monday and Tuesday. So how can buyers and sellers of the pound manage such crazy times? Thankfully there are some options to help manage your exposure to such volatility.

Sterling has fallen against all currencies as the Brexit worries start to deepen. The options have gently been narrowed as to the UK’s position outside of the EU and as we get further clarity the rates are reacting. We now know that the UK will seek to invoke Article 50 by March 2017 which means there is a 2 year period within which to strike a new deal with the EU. By setting the UK on a path to a more ‘hard’ Brexit financial markets are concerned over the shape of the negotiations ahead and what it will mean for the UK economy. Access to the Single Market will allegedly cost the UK economy £66bn per year and slash 10% off GDP (Gross Domestic Product). These are the Treasury forecasts which were so vociferously knocked down as reflecting ‘Project Fear’. Will they materialise?

Current economic data suggests that the UK economy is doing rather well which is making digesting everything happening rather difficult. Last week excellent news in the Manufacturing sector and signs the UK economy grew 0.4% in the 3rd Quarter did little to halt the pace of sterling’s decline. It does seem the pound is destined to fall further and remain volatile as we have a number of important milestones to overcome including the latest Bank of England Interest Rate decision, US and Eurozone Interest Rate decisions and the Chancellors Autumn Statement.

With politics and statements from politicians both in the UK and EU helping form some of the latest trends on sterling exchange rates it is important to be aware of the latest news and up to date with fresh developments. Utilising tools to help manage your transfer rate can be very effective too. For example a Stop / Loss order guarantees you won’t get a ‘worse than’ rate if markets drop. A ‘Limit’ order helps to target a higher level if rates rise. You the client choose your desired ‘best’ or ‘worst’ rate and we monitor the levels automatically. These deals guarantee your currency purchase at the desired rate even if only hit for a second.

Will the pound now fall lower is a very valid questions as sterling rates seem bound to err on the volatile side and with the levels entering potentially dangerous lows for UK firms buying goods and services from overseas as well as overseas property investors, now is the time to be making plans. On the flipside those businesses and individuals getting paid in a foreign currency or those selling an overseas property would do well to manage their positions too. Understanding everything ahead driving the rate and making some plans is the only way to help in such uncertain times, I can help you formulate a plan suggesting target rates and events to help narrow down your purchase window.

For specialist information and guidance on market developments please speak to the author by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk or calling 01494 787 478 in UK business hours and asking to speak to Jonathan Watson. Alternatively please fill in the form below and Jonathan will contact you as soon as possible.

Sterling crashes as negative sentiment surrounds the Pound, will it’s value continue to decline? (Joseph Wright)

The 52 week lows for Sterling exchange rates have deepened further during today’s trading session, and in the early hours of today’s trading session the marketplace was unsure as to exactly why.

Most are pointing in the direction of trading algorithms, or automated trading to put it simply, after in the early hours of this morning the Pound was sold off extremely heavily before correcting somewhat, although not back to the levels we saw prior to this almost unprecedented move.

The drop against the dollar was the second largest in history after the drop in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote earlier this year back in June, so that’s 2 historic sell off’s in this year alone.

Many reading will be wondering whether the Pound will continue to fall from these levels, and it’s looking like there’s a good chance that it will because the fundamentals coming out of the UK suggest the economy is healthy, even improving economic output since the Brexit vote (which the weaker Pound has assisted in some cases). Despite the healthy economy, weak sentiment is driving the Pound down, and investors are quick to react negatively to bad news out of the UK.

The are a number of key financial institutions forecasting a weaker Pound in the upcoming months and years, with HSBC today adding to a number of major institutions with predictions of GBP/EUR parity at the end of 2017. There’s quite some distance to go yet some for those working to a budget or timescale, it may be an idea to remove the risk from the currency exchange.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Pound Sterling Forecast – We can help you exchange your currency too! (Daniel Wright)

We now have well over 150,000 readers a month and many of them have actually contacted us over the years asking for help with their exchange.

Every writer on this site works for one of the longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K and many readers aren’t aware that not only is it more likely that we can get you a much better price than your bank or the broker you have chosen to use, but we also pride ourselves on offering an extremely personal service, where you are allocated your own broker here that will help you along every step of the way.

We have a huge turnover, so our buying power is generally greater than others which we pass on to our clients and we do not just try and get you to do the deal as soon as possible just so that we can move on to the next one, we take great care in giving you all the information out there to help you make the best possible decision for you personally.

There are a number of contract types we offer, these include forward contracts, stop losses and limit orders and these are all designed to help you avoid adverse movement in the markets and to take advantage of any spikes in the market for you should they occur.

Most writers on this site have been with the company for over ten years now, so our wealth of experience can be extremely valuable when you are trying to make a decision on when to buy currency for your business or property transactions.

I (Daniel Wright – The creator of the site) am currently taking on new clients, we deal with exchanges ranging from £5000 up to multi million pound exchanges for celebrities and high net worth individuals, all in the strictest of confidence.

If have been reading the information on our site for a long period of time and you feel that I may be of use to you on an imminent exchange, or indeed one later in the future then you can get in contact with directly by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do so that I can prepare a summary of how we can proceed and then give you a call. Even if you are using another broker at present it would be highly unlikely that I will not be able to get you a better deal and a much more efficient level of service.

I look forward to speaking with you!

 

 

GBPEUR forecast (Dayle Littlejohn)

This week HSBC Holdings Plc and UBS Group AG have indicated the future is not bright for the UK due to the ‘Brexit’ and they both believe GBPEUR exchange rates will reach parity at some stage next year. For people buying euros this should ring alarm bells where as euros sellers should feel their are extra pounds to be made.

Personally I disagree with the forecasts. Italy and Greece (two countries within the European union) have problems of their own. Banks within both countries are struggling with debt and they have both eluded to breaking EU laws to stay afloat. I believe rates will fluctuate in the mid teens and over time will drop to 1.10, however I just feel the UK economy is in a better position than the Eurozone and that’s why we will not see parity.

Tomorrow morning the UK release their latest Mortgage approval numbers. A drop is expected which isn’t a surprise. The public at the moment are acting cautiously due to what they read in the press about the ‘Brexit’. Expect sterling weakness tomorrow morning.

If I have not covered the currency pair you are trading feel free to email me the currency pair you are trading (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk.

My area of expertise is property purchases and sales. Therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale abroad, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and to get an understanding of how we can save you as much money as possible.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **