Tag Archives: forecast
Whatever you think about it QE is the most important thing on the markets this week!
Whilst the world leaders meet for the G8 summit and attract much attention for what will probably turn out to be very little achieved, (as is historic of these meetings), the real movers and shakers of the global economy are teeing up decisions which look set to move the currency markets this week.
That is of course central banks, notably the Federal Reserve in the US and the Bank of England. The most important is the Federal Reserve Interest Rate decision and Economic Projections tomorrow night. Growing speculation they will ‘taper’ or halt their QE purchases have caused big movements on exchange rates in the last week. Tomorrow we also have the Bank of England Minutes which could easily cause some GBP movements. These movements have caught out many people and show just how quickly and unexpectedly rates can change. It is looking likely we will see USD strength if they are tapering but market reaction is still rather unclear.
The Fed decision is likely to move not only USD rates but AUD, NZD, ZAR, NOK and many more. Timing your exchange and being ready to move quickly is a key component of foreign exchange transfers and we can help plan and manage your exposure to these volatile markets.
For more information at no cost or obligation please feel free to email me jmw@currencies.co.uk. If you wish to leave a phone number I can call you right away and explain quickly and concisely your forecast and how potentially we can assist you.
Thank you,
Jonathan
Market Sentiment favours Sterling for now… What would Mark Carney do?
A week can be a very long time on the currency markets and this has been a particularly interesting week as the heightened speculation surrounding Federal Reserve ‘tapering’ intensifies. Even if you are not buying or selling USD, the actions of America’s central bank are a major influence on the pound and all other currencies, the major sell off on AUD, NZD and ZAR this week is a prime example.
Uncertainty this week caused a sell off on stock markets and riskier currencies to plummet. GBPNZD broke through 2 and GBPZAR broke through 16! The importance of being ready to act was brought firmly into focus as rates soon tumbled back down. If you missed out on the spikes on these currencies why not let me know on jmw@currencies.co.uk and I will make sure you don’t miss out next time. AUDGBP tested the 0.60 level of resistance which could signal a brief respite for AUD sellers to enter the market. Should we break through 0.60 (1.6667 on GBPAUD) I would expect a further deterioration in the price of the AUD and with it the Kiwi. You have been warned!
Next week we have the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes on Wednesday night UK time. This is one of the most eagerly awaited meetings and will provide further information on Fed tapering. The potential for the sell off of this and last week to continue is quite high if they indicate a tapering expectation. If you are considering a currency exchange, being prepared and utilising our service will be a major advantage. For more information at no cost or obligation, please feel free to contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
How does this affect sterling? Historically sterling is a safe haven and as this week UK Gilts (UK government bonds) were bought it has increased the value of the pound. Next week we have the Bank of England Minutes, did Mervyn King finally succumb to pressure and not vote for QE? I expect the pound could have a good week next week if the BoE Minutes and Fed Minutes support less QE globally.
There is increasing speculation Mark Carney will embark on more QE but I doubt this. The UK economy is of course merely spluttering along but I think the improvements in key areas of the economy warrant a wait and see approach. Construction, Services and Manufacturing have all lately shown encouraging signs of growth and I think it is worth holding on to see if this is sustained. Politically it is dangerous too to adopt such a strong measure in his first meeting in the current environment. Ultimately being prepared is the best way to ensure you don’t miss out. If you are expecting a big fall or rise in the pound why not make us aware and we can watch it for you.
Our many years experience of handling private and corporate client’s foreign exchange requirements gives us the credibility to personally assist you move money internationally at commercial exchange rates better than the banks and other sources. Our personal, friendly and procative service means you can make an informed decision on what may be best. We offer the option to ‘forward buy’ and insert stop and limit orders into the market to ensure you don’t miss out if the market hits your desired rate. Speak to me to find out more! jmw@currencies.co.uk
Thank you,
Jonathan
Pound Sterling Forecast – The next few days for Sterling exchange rates against the Euro, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, U.S Dollar and many more (Daniel Wright)
Sterling had a reasonably flat week against the Euro last week and personally I feel we will remain range bound between the 1.16-1.18 level throughout the week unless any major surprises pop up on the market.
The pound made some huge against against the Antipodean currencies last week along with a 2% climb against the U.S Dollar on Thursday afternoon which was a little out of the blue.
This week we still have plenty of data due out that could move Sterling exchange rates, the most important I have outlined below:
Tomorrow (Tuesday) morning we have industrial and manufacturing data out for the U.K and any signs of improvement could give the Pound a boost against all majors as it will add to the many signs that we are starting to get that the U.K is starting to recover, albeit exceedingly slowly.
Tomorrow afternoon we have the NIESR (National Institute of Social and Economic Research) GDP (Gross Domestic Product) estimate. GDP is essentially the amount an economy grew or shrank over a specific period of time and two consecutive quarters of negative growth is where an economy will find itself technically in a recession. The NIESR estimate is taken very seriously by investors and it can actually move the market quite a bit once released so look out for this data at 15:00pm.
Those with an interest in Australian Dollars may also wish to look out for Consumer confidence figures released overnight on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The exchange rate against the Australian Dollar has been really rocking and rolling of late mainly down to the Australian Dollar coming out of favour with investors due to economic data slowing and the fact that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) commented that they feel the Australian Dollar is far too strong and that they may be taking further measures to devalue it.
If you do have Australian Dollars to buy although the outlook for GBP-AUD is still fairly favourable I would also be cautious that last time the GBP/AUD rate went over 1.60 it was back down below 1.50 again within two months!!!
Wednesday morning has another chance of being a volatile one for GBP as we have unemployment figures for the U.K at 09:30am. No change is expected to the current level of 7.8% however do be aware of this release as a slight improvement or the level getting worse may lead to a swift shift in the market value of the Pound.
Later on Wednesday night we have the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) interest rate decision. With the RBNZ very much thinking along the same line as the RBA with regard to the strength of the New Zealand Dollar you must be prepared for absolutely anything with this release.
If you would like assistance on any currency exchange that you need to carry out be it buying or selling the Pound, if you are based in the U.K or not then feel free to contact me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to help you.
Why was the USD sold off today? GBPUSD Forecast
GBPUSD has spiked this afternoon due to a major USD sell off. A slightly better outlook in Europe as described by Mario Draghi reduces the chance of EZ uncertainty. Hence many who had been banking on the USD strengthening significantly in the future are selling out. There were fairly high expectations the US economy would grow at above 3% this year but slightly worse data has unsettled investors nerves!
Tomorrow’s Non Farm and Employment data is key but anyone still sitting on USD waiting to hit say 1.50 may be waiting another year and a half (the last time previous to this year we were at 1.50 on GBPUSD).
Markets do not always follow set patterns and the 1.6% movement on GBPUSD from 1.53811 up to 1.5683 just shows how important it is to beware of market movements when making decisions on moving funds.
There is likely to be some serious volatility on exchange rates tomorrow as traders scramble to offset losses and take profits. This could present some excellent buying opportunities for anyone those who prepared. If you have a transfer to consider and would like to learn more about today’s movements and be kept up to speed on future news please contact me Jonathan directly.
I am very confident I can save you money on any transfers so please contact me for more information. I look forward to hearing from you!
Jonathan
01494 787 478
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Pound Sterling Forecast – The week ahead – What may happen for the Pound this week?
An interesting week ahead for Sterling against all major currencies with a very busy week for economic data both for the U.K and other major economies.
The Pound has recently raced up against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand with quite some force, mainly down to weakness for the AUD, NZD and ZAR than Sterling strength.
We have a lot of data out for Australia this week which could kick the Australian Dollar whilst it is down inclusive of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) Interest rate decision tonight shortly followed by the interest rate statement and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data which will show how much the economy grew or shrank during a specific time frame.
There is a chance that the RBA may cut rates and even if they do not I would not be surprised to see comments in the statement following it suggesting that we will see another rate cut in the future. The way the markets works even the hint of future rate cuts could lead to Australian Dollar weakness which may finally push the exchange rate to the long awaited 1.60 mark once again.
The second big release for Australia this week is the GDP data – Should the Australian economy be following suit with the Chinese and slightly slowing down then this could be another kick in the teeth for the Australian Dollar.
Personally I feel we are turning a corner slightly against the Australian Dollar however do be aware that this trend can turn around rapidly so I feel 1.60 is a fair level to aim for as a buying level looking back at where we have been this year. A limit order may be a sensible approach as our automated systems will automatically buy for you should 1.60 become available anytime 24 hours a day 7 days a week, there is no charge for this handy tool and it can cancelled or amended at any time unless the order has been filled – Email me djw@currencies.co.uk for more information with a brief description of what you are looking to do.
Sterling Euro followers also have a busy week ahead with GDP data out for Europe and Retail Sales at the same time on Wednesday morning at 10:00am. We also have the ECB (European Central Bank) Interest rate decision on Thursday at 12:45pm – There is an outside chance of another rate cut for Europe which you would imagine could weaken the Euro quite a bit however I feel this is fairly doubtful, the main interest in my opinion will be the press conference held by head of the ECB Mario Draghi afterwards at 13:30pm.
Investors tend to hang off of his every word during the press conference and the slightest hint of trouble for the Eurozone could lead to a sharp drop inn the value of the Euros, with of course a solid and positive speech possibly leading to Euro strength, making it more expensive to buy Euros.
The U.K has its Interest rate decision on Thursday too at 12:00 pm and this is the last with Sir Mervyn King in charge so I would be surprised to see anything major come of this as personally I feel members will await the arrival of the new Governor Mark Carney from Canada.
Finally, to round the week off it is the turn of the USA and we have Non-Farm Payroll data out tomorrow for the States which can actually affect all major currencies. NFP data is essentially the number of people in non agricultural employment within the U.S and the reason it can lead to market volatility is it can effect global attitude to risk – Keep your eyes peeled for this data at 13:30pm on Friday as it can lead to a very busy end to the week.
If you have an upcoming currency transfer to make and you already have a trading facility then feel free to get in touch and I will be more than happy to assist you or monitor the market on your behalf. If you do not have a trading facility yet think I would be able to help you both in terms of a great rate of exchange and level of customer service the feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk which is completely free and carries no obligation but will allow you to get a comparison against your current provider to see if I can help you.
I look forward to speaking with you!
Are the best days of the Aussie and Kiwi over? GBPAUD and GBPNZD Forecast
In less than 2 months the Australian dollar has lost 9.1% against the pound and the Kiwi has lost 5.6%. Both the Australian dollar and the Kiwi dollar have been sold off whilst a resurgent pound has staged a comeback too causing the large fluctuations. What can we expect in the coming weeks and months on these currencies?
Having both been at all time highs against sterling the reversal of fortune on these pairings have caught many by surprise. If selling a property in one of these countries and looking to bring back funds to the UK, the value of the funds has been eroded by the above percentages.
AUD – A number of factors have seen the Australian dollar come under significant pressure of late and I would not be surprised to see further losses. I believe the rate will go above 1.60. Factors for further Aussie weakness include the prospect of more interest rates cuts, a slowdown in China, Australia’s main trading partner and global concerns resurfacing in the form of a Eurozone recession. Speculation of an end to the ‘mining boom’ too has not helped confidence in the Australian currency.
Conveniently for anyone selling AUD to buy GBP the pound looks set to have some wobbles in the future which will present better opportunities but the longer term trend and outlook would be a worsening of rates for AUD sellers. These better rates could be seen as early as next week although were the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) to cut rates, these gains would be very shortlived. All in all the next few weeks and months promise to be very interesting on GBPAUD. If you are considering a transaction buying or selling Australian dollars an awareness of all the factors driving the rate and being kept informed could save you money. For more information on getting the best rate and service, including how we can fix a rate for the future, please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk
NZD - The New Zealand dollar loosely tracks the Australian dollar as Australia is the main trading partner with New Zealand. Lately the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) has been selling New Zealand dollars to try to weaken the currency and boost exports. The month of April saw the biggest NZD sale by the RBNZ in an effect to control the appreciation of the currency. Fear in the market that the Kiwi is overvalued and will lose longer term are being reflected in the price and I feel if you are selling NZD to buy GBP, getting things in place sooner may be wise.
After so much movement in a short space of time the potential for profit taking and corrections are high. Our specialist service is designed to offer the very best rates of exchange and provide information on when may be the best time to enter the market so you do not suffer. For more information on at no obligation or cost, please speak to me Jonathan on 01494 787 478 or email jmw@currencies.co.uk
We always go that extra mile to win the business of new clients via this site so please do feel free to drop me an email and find out if you could be getting a better deal.
Thank you,
Jonathan
Many Market Movers in May! Can sterling go higher?
As we approach the halfway point of the month we see the pound holding some of the gains we have witnessed in April but still very much under pressure! Unfortunately there is very little on the horizon to indicate significant further gains this month. If you are selling pounds to buy another currency holding out for further gains could be very risky, current levels should not be easily dismissed. Here are some of the key thing to note if you are buying or selling which may affect your rate.
If you would like more information on a particular subject or on events surrounding your particular transfer please speak with me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
Will the UK leave the EU? Expect pressure on sterling due to political uncertainty. Markets and investors want certainty in their investments. Fears of the damage a split Tory government, the rise of UKIP and a broken coalition would do to UK business weighed on sterling yesterday. Can Cameron tackle the ghost of conservative past and deal with the question of Europe? It is doubtful I have to say and this will weigh down the pound.
UK Growth Last months data was impressive and welcome but 0.3% is not anything to get too excited about. True the latest data sets have all been positive but the marginal improvements on what were dire figures still have a long way to go. Ultimately the UK’s stagnant housing market (particularly outside London) needs invigorating – Construction is the main drag in recent years. The second revision of growth figures at the end of the month could easily be a market mover.
Depending on which currency pair you are trading there will of course be many other things to move the market. Looking in my crystal ball (which has been pretty clear lately) I cannot see significant gains for GBP against the majors. Maybe a cent or two? Once again I see more danger of things dropping as the confidence of the last few weeks wears off.
If you have a transaction to consider I would be interested to speak to you explain the market and offer our services with a view to getting you the best deal. For more information please email on jmw@currencies.co.uk
I look forward to hearing from you!
What will happen next week on sterling exchange rates?
An excellent run of form for sterling has seen us hit a 15 week high against the euro and 11 week highs against the US dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. Is this going to get much better or has this rally run out of steam?
I think that this rally has run out of steam but that does not mean rates are going to just crash back down. Sterling has been given a boost by the improved GDP stats (0.3% growth for Q1) which removes some of the more immediate concerns regarding sterling. In order for the pound to press on we need to see more positive data and next Thursday could be a trigger with Industrial and Manufacturing data plus the NIESR (National Institute of Economic & Social Research) estimate of GDP for April.
If you are considering moving sterling in the next few weeks next week could be fairly pivotal in shaping the future direction for sterling. It is important not just for sterling but due to the releases affecting other currencies. Here is a quick run through of a couple of things to beware of on rates next week.
EURO – Mario Draghi and the ECB (European Central Bank) are giving a couple of speeches next week including the ECB Monthly Report. There was a story today that the ECB were playing down speculation yesterday rates may be cut further. If any such bold statements are made I expect the Euro to strengthen, but not by much.. The Euro is in the firing line right now. If you are considering any GBPEUR or EURGBP transfers in the future please feel free to contact me for a forecast specific to your requirements. jmw@currencies.co.uk
USD – An improved employment outlook for the US today helped the USD to strengthen against sterling but unless the pound comes under pressure I expect GBPUSD to push higher. A speech next Friday by Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in the US, Ben Bernanke could be crucial.
AUSTRALIAN – The Reserve Bank of Australia meet for their monthly meeting next Monday evening where they decide on economic policy. The statement after their meeting may be more indicative of policy as no change is expected. Next week we also have Australian employment data which could move rates. On the whole I expect rates to remain good for buyers, sellers of AUD to buy GBP may wish to move sooner if they don’t see improvements.
Our service is designed to save people money on their currency exchanges. This is not just through offering better rates than the banks and other currency brokers, but by assisting with the actual timing of your exchange. Even if your transfer is just a one off we can help guide you through the process of moving money internationally at the very best rates.
Even if your transfer is not required for some time we can forward book rates for a small deposit. For more information on the services and to make a comparison or register an alert for certain trading levels, please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
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GBPEUR rates wobble but will an interest rate change GBPEUR forecasts (STEVE EAKINS)
Following the UK avoiding a recession late last week rates spiked up to the highest seen since the end of January. By definition a SPIKE does not last for long and these levels were slowly taken away through Monday and Tuesday trading. Many clients managed to benefit of these spikes following their registration to the SPIKE NOTIFICATION service here. (If this is of interest simply send your contact and transfer details to hse@currencies.co.uk)
But what next for GBPEUR rates of exchange?
Well the next focus point is the European interest rate decision which is released on Thursday afternoon. There is a view that rates may be lowered following pressure from countries trying to balance their debt burdens, Germany’s economy becoming sluggish and inflation falling across the single currency. There are two views in the market as to what would happen if they were cut from the current record low of 0.75% to 0.5%. Firstly traditionally when an interest rate is cut drops investors’ appetite so there is less demand and therefore weakens that currency. The second is that as in this case the suggested drop is so small, it could be seen as a proactive move and actually drive investment making the euro more expensive to buy.
I think the latter is more probably personally, however I am also leaning towards them not actually lowering rates this week. Either way the release will be key for ANYONE with a currency transfer to make as the Governor of the European Central Bank will be taking questions on the matter driving rates over the press conference so make sure you are close to a computer or have a broker actively keeping an eye on your situation as the news breaks. To put this event into contents it could move the markets by upwards of 1.5 cents adding £1,700 onto a €150,000 purchase.
If you would like to keep up to date on the event or to talk through how this could affect your currency exposure, speak to the experts. Feel free to get in contact with myself or the team here. My name is Steve Eakins and I am one of the elite traders here. Call on the normal number or email me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk
