Tag Archives: GBP data release
Pound strength following King Speech (Steve Eakins)
Today, which is probably the busiest day this week has already provided a few surprises. It was this morning confirmed that France has re-entered a recession creating euro weakness, UK Unemployment is improving and then currently the current Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, in his last speech seems to be talking the value of the Pound up. In summary GBPEUR rates have now risen from the 2 week low at the beginning of the day towards a near 4 month high we last visited 4 weeks ago.
So what next for GBPEUR exchange rates?
Near future – EURO buyers may want to hold off till tomorrow when we have the last big data release for GBPEUR this week when the Eurozone confirms their Consumer Confidence figures for April. The expectation is for this data to show a contraction so rates may climb further for GBPEUR following this news which is released at 10 am BST. Euro sellers may want to move before hand as a result.
Medium term – Next week we have UK Production Price Index, UK Retail figures, Bank of England minutes, UK GDP figures and UK Mortgage approvals. Expectations for these releases will be more concrete on Monday so keep reading here for the latest forecasts and updates on these releases. This should help highlight potential buy and sell opportunities when it may be the best time to trade through next week.
Longer term – A lot hinders on the new Bank of England Governor Mark Carney that starts his post at the end of June. He may want to come in with an instant impact changing interest rates or the current asset buying program. It may the beginning of July when we see this and is already expected to be an interesting event that may give direction to exchange rates for the following few months.
If you are in the currency market and are interested in a more personal view on how the above events could affect you, feel free to contact us on the normal number (01494 787 478) or myself personally, Steve Eakins via email at hse@currencies.co.uk
What will happen next week on sterling exchange rates?
An excellent run of form for sterling has seen us hit a 15 week high against the euro and 11 week highs against the US dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. Is this going to get much better or has this rally run out of steam?
I think that this rally has run out of steam but that does not mean rates are going to just crash back down. Sterling has been given a boost by the improved GDP stats (0.3% growth for Q1) which removes some of the more immediate concerns regarding sterling. In order for the pound to press on we need to see more positive data and next Thursday could be a trigger with Industrial and Manufacturing data plus the NIESR (National Institute of Economic & Social Research) estimate of GDP for April.
If you are considering moving sterling in the next few weeks next week could be fairly pivotal in shaping the future direction for sterling. It is important not just for sterling but due to the releases affecting other currencies. Here is a quick run through of a couple of things to beware of on rates next week.
EURO – Mario Draghi and the ECB (European Central Bank) are giving a couple of speeches next week including the ECB Monthly Report. There was a story today that the ECB were playing down speculation yesterday rates may be cut further. If any such bold statements are made I expect the Euro to strengthen, but not by much.. The Euro is in the firing line right now. If you are considering any GBPEUR or EURGBP transfers in the future please feel free to contact me for a forecast specific to your requirements. jmw@currencies.co.uk
USD – An improved employment outlook for the US today helped the USD to strengthen against sterling but unless the pound comes under pressure I expect GBPUSD to push higher. A speech next Friday by Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in the US, Ben Bernanke could be crucial.
AUSTRALIAN – The Reserve Bank of Australia meet for their monthly meeting next Monday evening where they decide on economic policy. The statement after their meeting may be more indicative of policy as no change is expected. Next week we also have Australian employment data which could move rates. On the whole I expect rates to remain good for buyers, sellers of AUD to buy GBP may wish to move sooner if they don’t see improvements.
Our service is designed to save people money on their currency exchanges. This is not just through offering better rates than the banks and other currency brokers, but by assisting with the actual timing of your exchange. Even if your transfer is just a one off we can help guide you through the process of moving money internationally at the very best rates.
Even if your transfer is not required for some time we can forward book rates for a small deposit. For more information on the services and to make a comparison or register an alert for certain trading levels, please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
Thank you
Buying euros news, best exchange rates, when to buy, when to sell? (Steve Eakins)
Currency exchange rates have had a bit of a “blip” this week or a SPIKE allowing euro sellers to trade at a 6 week high. It is these SPIKES that often achieve the best price in the market but you have to move quickly to catch them as they don’t hang around for long. A Spike in the market is when some surprising information is released which moves the markets quickly and by a large amount. Unfortunately most recent SPIKE has now ended and the rates have started to return to the level seen over the last 5 weeks.
These spikes do not happen often and when they do it is only the clients with funds available that can normally take advantage. I am of the thought that there will be other spikes through the month of May due to key data being released from the UK with regards to the potential of the UK economy falling into a recession and the Eurozone maybe lowering interest rates. So if you need to move currency internationally register for SPIKE notifications via email at hse@currencies.co.uk
What next for currency rates?
Many euro buyers have been waiting for rates to climb back over 1.20 that we saw last year. Which may or may not happen. The facts still remain that the UK is growing at near zero percent, Unemployment continues to climb, consumer spending is still very low, and there is no real signs of any improvement in the near future. We don’t have an Olympics or a royal wedding to pin our hopes on. This week we have even seen the International Monetary Fund comment that the UK is at risk which is a view also shared by the next Governor of the Bank of England. So in the medium term I expect rates to fall.
The good news however is that rates do not move in a straight line and there are events in the near future that could help euro buyers:
- Next Thursday we have the UK GDP figures being released, this should confirm that the UK avoided a recession. I expect this to improve prices at the time by maybe a cent – saving clients £1,500 on a €200,000 purchase.
- The week following we have European Interest rate decision. There is a possibility that they will cut interest rates which could push exchange rates up for euro buyers, maybe by 1.5 cents – saving clients £2,250 on a €200,000 purchase.
To find out more about the specialist currency service we provide, whether you are a private or corporate client, then we can help. Please get in touch either on 01494 787478 or by emailing me with a brief description of your individual requirement and I will happily contact you and run through your options. You can reach me direct at hse@currencies.co.uk
Register for SPIKE NOTIFICATION or a RATE ALERT simply email me Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk with your details.
How will an EU referendum affect GBP rates? (Jonathan)
Cameron’s announcement today is welcome in some respects but presents a whole new set of challenges for the pound. Whilst in principle it makes sense as the UK does need to be clearer about how it engages with Europe, in practice the political wranglings and speculation we are now to endure for months and years will not be good for the pound.
Why is sterling suffering?
- Political Uncertainty - Where does the UK stand on Europe?
- Economic Uncertainty - Is Cameron and Obsorn’s economic plan flawed? Will the UK ever return to growth? Are we in a triple dip recession? Is the UK about to lose its triple A credit rating?
- The UK is no longer a safe haven – Last year at the height of Eurozone worries, the UK and pound found favour as a safe haven. There were also major fears over the US fiscal cliff and fears of a hard landing for China. These three big global concerns have all played out fairly well. Consequently investors are liquidating GBP positions because they see better returns elsewhere.
Where do you stand? As human beings we generally like certainty and clarity, we like to know where we stand. The same is true of investors, they want to understand their money will be safe and provide a decent return. Lately investors considering investing in the UK have been put off by the factors above and turning this tide will take time.
Friday’s GDP data for the UK is looking more and more important as it will underline the recent moves and determine how justified the GBP sell off has been. Don’t be surprised to see a small increase in the value of the pound if the number turns out to be not as bad as expected.
The pound is continuing to suffer lately but there will be spikes to take advantage of. Even if your transfer is a one off, we can help provide all the information to make an informed decision on when to enter the market. For a quick discussion of what you should know about your exchange and how it all works, please feel free to contact me Jonathan directly on 01494 787 478 or email jmw@currencies.co.uk
I look forward to hearing from you
They say Bad News Comes in Three’s! Will it be so for the pound? These three T’s indicate quite possibly
There are three things that could really slip up the pound this year. Knowing what may happen and when allows you to make an informed decision about when to exchange your currency. No one can tell you exactly what will happen but we aim to ensure our readers and clients have a slight advantage when they do enter the market!
Triple Dip Recession – Unprecedented in modern times but these fears could easily become reality and cause a GBP sell off.
Triple A Credit Rating – The loss of the UK’s prestigious top tier credit rating could rapidly halt any sterling gains.
Trade and Budget Deficits – The UK has not enjoyed a trade surplus since 1981. Quite simply the UK has been living beyond its means for far too long.
Looking in a global context the UK ‘s problems may become more of an issue as Europe appears to have paved a way forward, the Chinese hard landing has not been so hard and the US’s immediate concerns are addressed. The worst case scenarios for each of these three issues has not played out. Confidence has returned for Europe as Greece did not leave and Spanish and Italian borrowing costs have been significantly reduced. Chinese data is still pointing to strong Manufacturing output and the solutions on the fiscal cliff have helped instill confidence.
The pound enjoyed a pretty good year last year. At various intervals we broke through many of our clients (realistic 
) target rates. GBPUSD at 1.60 +, GBPEUR at 1.20+ & 1.25+, GBPAUD at 1.60+, GBPNZD at 2, GBPCAD at 1.60+, GBPZAR at 14+ and of course many others. Whilst these rates have at times been taken for granted you do not need to go back more than year or so to find rates significantly lower.
Is this trend likely to continue in 2013? I would say on balance probably not. Services data for December showed the first contraction in the sector for two years. Services is one of the main sectors of the UK economy and if in decline we should be worried. We certainly cannot rely on Manufacturing to get us out of the mess, nor Construction. Services is the main feature of the UK economy so this needs to see positive news, not negative.
24th January we have the UK GDP figures for Q4 2012 and this is the next big event for me. Tomorrow’s Bank of England and European Central Bank decisions could easily be a non event but are the main topic this week.
Should you be considering any transfers I would be more than happy to explain how to go about getting the best exchange rate. Please feel free to speak with me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.
Thanks,
How will today’s Autumn statement effect sterling exchange rates? (Ben Amrany)
The most eagerly awaited announcement of the week will start today at 12.30 as the Chancellor will give his Autumn statement. The Autumn statement will give his views on the outlook for the UK economy, the state of the public finances and what that means for the government’s spending plans and programme of austerity measures.
The good news from the statement has already been released: An extra £5bn investment boost will target – construction, Schools, transport, health and other capital projects.
The worry for those of you that are looking at selling the pound could come to fruition when the chancellor will reveal the true state of the nation’s financial health.
Growth forecasts and further austerity cuts, I think this will be key to how the pound performs for the rest of the week. It is extremely unlikely that we will see further growth as we are in one of the longest and deepest recessions in generations.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted in March that we would see 0.8% growth this year, 2% next year and 3% growth by 2015. It is looking more and more likely that they will downgrade their growth forecasts. If this happens then My view = Sterlingweakness.
We have heard rumours this week that the Chancellor has missed his targets to cut the deficit. This is going to be embarrassing for the government and could cause friction within the coalition. Plus if missing targets raises concerns about the UK’s credit worthiness, it could become more expensive for the government to borrow money and put pressure on the UK’s credit rating going forward.
We will find out today how much more austerity he will now impose and for how long it will last. I expect big cuts to departments and services while potential hikes in specific tax. If this happens once again I expect it to weigh on the pound now and well into the New Year bringing GBP/EUR rates down towards the 1.20 level in the next month. My View -Sterling weakness.
So today will certainly be interesting to see how the markets react to the Chancellors comments. Moving on to tomorrow their are big interest rate decisions here in the UK and the Euro zone. So if you have a requirement to sell the pound you may wish to look at securing your funds before today’s announcement. This will give you the peace of mind on what is surely going to be a volatile end to the week.
Plus if you are looking at buying Euros then be cautious as the Euro has significantly strengthened against a basket of currencies this week on teh back of Greece buying back some bonds and reducing their deficit. Euro zone GDP is out tomorrow too so if their economy does not shrink as much as anticipated then the Euro strength may just continue.
If you have a requirement a to buy or sell any major currency please feel free to contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk with your requirement and I will be happy to go over all the options that are available to you. the authors here at www.poundsterlingforecast.com work for one of the largest currency brokers in the UK. Not only will we give you our expert opinion but we will help you try to maximise your exchange by offering you a significantly better rate of exchange than that of your high street bank.
Pound Sterling Forecast End November / December – It is often the complacent who suffer the most…. (Jonathan)
Exchange rates move continuously for a variety of reasons. This can cause anyone considering a currency transfer headaches and happiness. An understanding of what exactly is driving your exchange rate is key to getting the best deal. Let us look briefly at some of the more common themes on the pound and some of the more popular pairs. It would be impossible (and boring if it didn’t concern you) to cover every aspect of every currency in one post so please feel free to contact me directly for more information on a particular topic or currency pair, even if it is not covered here.
GBPEUR The big news has been the agreement on Greece this week which has caused the Euro to find favour. The current sentiments for Europe are much more positive than they have been in recent months which is why the rate is now some 5 cents better for sellers than earlier in the summer. I have seen many Euro sellers entering the market this week to capitalise on these better levels. The outlook in Europe is still uncertain but with no new bad news to unsettle nerves, the Euro is stronger.
GBPUSD The rate has crept over 1.60 again which is a reflection of the better sentiments in Europe. The Dollar is a safe haven currency and will weaken when there is good news for the global economy as investors seek riskier shores. In times of uncertainty the USD will strengthen. I expect the USD will start to strengthen as no sign of a deal on the Fiscal Cliff continues. However this is still some weeks away and we could see the dollar weaken further before then as markets remain buoyant.
GBPAUD I have been writing recently of the likelihood that the Aussie will remain strong due to improvements in Chinese data. This is still the main reason for the strength of AUD but a report yesterday by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development) slashed the global growth forecasts. This coupled with a few fears over rising Unemployment in Australia has weakened the currency a touch.
Next week is the start of a new month and consequently new economic data which can move the market. Getting the best exchange rate is about being prepared for every eventuality as it is normally the complacent who suffer the most. Predicting 100% what will happen is impossible but our specialist service will help anyone considering a transfer with a really good price plus outline all the information to make an informed decision about when to enter the market.
The end of the month is usually a busy period as investors settle positions and sell off any surplus investments. You can often see some big unexpected moves on currency so don’t get caught out, register an interest with us and we can make sure you don’t miss out.
If you would like to learn more please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk, 01494 787 478, thank you.
Asian Uncertainty leads to GBPJPY, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCAD and GBPZAR Spike. Will it last? (Jonathan)
I posted earlier this week on some positive news from China which had helped fuel strength on these currencies. Anyone who follows these currencies or the site may be aware that one of the main drivers on these currencies is risk sentiment. Risk sentiment can be summed up as investors attitude to risk. Are Investors keen to take a risk or not? Risk sentiment for these currencies, in particular the Aussie and Kiwi is being shaped by data from China and Japan as the Australian economy benefits from trade with these countries. And New Zealand having Australia as its main trading partner loosely tracks the Aussie. News of Japan potentially offering negative interest rates has weakened the JPY and provides some uncertainty as to the future direction of the Japanese economy.
Further interesting news this week was the new Chinese leader Xi Jinping coming into power. I have heard mixed reports over the direction Xi will be looking to take China and we are hearing tensions are still rife between Japan and China. Xi does not govern independently, he is part of a larger group of extremely powerful people in the Communist party who make the decisions. There is still a huge amount of secrecy and uncertainty over foreign policy and the decision making in China so it remains to be seen how China will react to global pressures and consequantly how this will impact the currencies mentioned.
I think it is fair to say no one wants China to continue to dominate and grow more than the Chinese. Therefore I think we can expect that good news will continue to emanate from the region as they do everything to keep the economy growing. This will ultimately keep the currencies relatively strong. A hint of uncertainty over this direction (which will as I say probably ultimately be positive) and over Japanese ties does seem to be presenting some small opportunities today. A couple of cents may not sound like much but trading £100,000 into Aussies at the high versus the low this week would have offered nearly 2000 more Australian dollars. By highlighting such movements and keeping an eye on things to buyers and sellers we can ensure you get the most from your money.
The global demand for raw materials continues and with it these currencies prosper. Consequently wobbles like we have seen this week will present opportunities for savvy buyers and sellers. The correct timing and approach to a currency trade can literally save you thousands so doing everything you can to maximise your exchange rate is key.
For a free, no obligation discussion of all the events affecting and driving your exchange rates please feel free to get in touch for further information. Jonathan Watson jmw@currencies.co.uk 01494 787 478
