Tag Archives: GBP data release
An excellent run of form for sterling has seen us hit a 15 week high against the euro and 11 week highs against the US dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. Is this going to get much better or has this rally run out of steam?
I think that this rally has run out of steam but that does not mean rates are going to just crash back down. Sterling has been given a boost by the improved GDP stats (0.3% growth for Q1) which removes some of the more immediate concerns regarding sterling. In order for the pound to press on we need to see more positive data and next Thursday could be a trigger with Industrial and Manufacturing data plus the NIESR (National Institute of Economic & Social Research) estimate of GDP for April.
If you are considering moving sterling in the next few weeks next week could be fairly pivotal in shaping the future direction for sterling. It is important not just for sterling but due to the releases affecting other currencies. Here is a quick run through of a couple of things to beware of on rates next week.
EURO – Mario Draghi and the ECB (European Central Bank) are giving a couple of speeches next week including the ECB Monthly Report. There was a story today that the ECB were playing down speculation yesterday rates may be cut further. If any such bold statements are made I expect the Euro to strengthen, but not by much.. The Euro is in the firing line right now. If you are considering any GBPEUR or EURGBP transfers in the future please feel free to contact me for a forecast specific to your requirements. firstname.lastname@example.org
USD – An improved employment outlook for the US today helped the USD to strengthen against sterling but unless the pound comes under pressure I expect GBPUSD to push higher. A speech next Friday by Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in the US, Ben Bernanke could be crucial.
AUSTRALIAN – The Reserve Bank of Australia meet for their monthly meeting next Monday evening where they decide on economic policy. The statement after their meeting may be more indicative of policy as no change is expected. Next week we also have Australian employment data which could move rates. On the whole I expect rates to remain good for buyers, sellers of AUD to buy GBP may wish to move sooner if they don’t see improvements.
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Even if your transfer is not required for some time we can forward book rates for a small deposit. For more information on the services and to make a comparison or register an alert for certain trading levels, please contact me Jonathan directly on email@example.com
Sterling crashes to a 15 month low against the Euro
Where next for sterling exchange rates against the Euro?
It seems like not much has changed for the pound over the last couple of years. In the UK all time low interest rates are not increasing, unemployment is not decreasing and the
austerity measures are now well underway. All Sterling negative.
Last year In Europe, the uncertainty of member states leaving the Euro asked questions in general about the collapse of the single currency. This really weighed heavily on the Euro, which enabled the pound to rise to the lofty heights of 1.2880.
This year the roles have reversed as comments from ECB (European Central Bank) have stated that there will not be a break up of the 16 nation zone plus Mario Draghi the president of the ECB stated that the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. This has increased investor confidence in the Euro and as they start to manage the crisis the currency is becoming more sought after and the more expensive it is becoming to buy. ALL EURO POSITIVE.
I fear that the losses for the pound could continue this month. Now that GBP/EUR has broken through the 1.15 point the next barrier of resistance could see a drop down to 1.13 so be cautious if you have an exchange to make. There are always peaks and troughs in the market so there will be windows of opportuinity to achieve slightly higher levels but I feel that 1.20 and above is an extremely long way away.
If you do have an up and coming currency requirements to make over the next few months you may be wise to get in contcat at firstname.lastname@example.org You can then benefit from our award winning rates and I will explain all the options that are available to you.
The Week ahead for sterling
The pounds trend remains negative on evidence that monetary policy conditions will remain loose throughout 2013. This Thursday will be the busiest day of the week as we have another key interest rate decision. Although there are no signs of any movement in the base rate you should be wary of any further monetary easing (QE) which
tends to weaken sterling. I personally feel that the Chancellor and the BoE are happy with a weak pound so any further signs of stimulus may just see sterling’s losses continue.
The latest PMI services-sector reading will be released tomorrow. This will be extremely important for confidence!! A sharp decline to 48.9 for December was only the second reading below 50 in over three years. Now a bounce back to above the 50 level this week would provide some degree of reassurance for the UK economy and suggest that a triple-dip recession can be avoided. However I feel this unlikely as the markets are expecting a reading of 49.5 which is still negative. If the level comes out worse than expected this could trigger serious alarm bells over the economy with a renewed plunge in Sterling. Expect GBP/USD to potentially weaken to 1.55.
We have different contract options like forward buying which can help you minimise your risk to volatile exchange rate fluctuations. This can give you the peace of mind that your funds will not weaken any more. If you would like more information on any of teh above email me with your requirement and contact details and I will make sure that you are aware of all teh options available to help you maximise your exchange. Just email me at email@example.com
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Cameron’s announcement today is welcome in some respects but presents a whole new set of challenges for the pound. Whilst in principle it makes sense as the UK does need to be clearer about how it engages with Europe, in practice the political wranglings and speculation we are now to endure for months and years will not be good for the pound.
Why is sterling suffering?
- Political Uncertainty - Where does the UK stand on Europe?
- Economic Uncertainty - Is Cameron and Obsorn’s economic plan flawed? Will the UK ever return to growth? Are we in a triple dip recession? Is the UK about to lose its triple A credit rating?
- The UK is no longer a safe haven – Last year at the height of Eurozone worries, the UK and pound found favour as a safe haven. There were also major fears over the US fiscal cliff and fears of a hard landing for China. These three big global concerns have all played out fairly well. Consequently investors are liquidating GBP positions because they see better returns elsewhere.
Where do you stand? As human beings we generally like certainty and clarity, we like to know where we stand. The same is true of investors, they want to understand their money will be safe and provide a decent return. Lately investors considering investing in the UK have been put off by the factors above and turning this tide will take time.
Friday’s GDP data for the UK is looking more and more important as it will underline the recent moves and determine how justified the GBP sell off has been. Don’t be surprised to see a small increase in the value of the pound if the number turns out to be not as bad as expected.
The pound is continuing to suffer lately but there will be spikes to take advantage of. Even if your transfer is a one off, we can help provide all the information to make an informed decision on when to enter the market. For a quick discussion of what you should know about your exchange and how it all works, please feel free to contact me Jonathan directly on 01494 787 478 or email firstname.lastname@example.org
I look forward to hearing from you
They say Bad News Comes in Three’s! Will it be so for the pound? These three T’s indicate quite possibly
There are three things that could really slip up the pound this year. Knowing what may happen and when allows you to make an informed decision about when to exchange your currency. No one can tell you exactly what will happen but we aim to ensure our readers and clients have a slight advantage when they do enter the market!
Triple Dip Recession – Unprecedented in modern times but these fears could easily become reality and cause a GBP sell off.
Triple A Credit Rating – The loss of the UK’s prestigious top tier credit rating could rapidly halt any sterling gains.
Trade and Budget Deficits – The UK has not enjoyed a trade surplus since 1981. Quite simply the UK has been living beyond its means for far too long.
Looking in a global context the UK ‘s problems may become more of an issue as Europe appears to have paved a way forward, the Chinese hard landing has not been so hard and the US’s immediate concerns are addressed. The worst case scenarios for each of these three issues has not played out. Confidence has returned for Europe as Greece did not leave and Spanish and Italian borrowing costs have been significantly reduced. Chinese data is still pointing to strong Manufacturing output and the solutions on the fiscal cliff have helped instill confidence.
The pound enjoyed a pretty good year last year. At various intervals we broke through many of our clients (realistic ) target rates. GBPUSD at 1.60 +, GBPEUR at 1.20+ & 1.25+, GBPAUD at 1.60+, GBPNZD at 2, GBPCAD at 1.60+, GBPZAR at 14+ and of course many others. Whilst these rates have at times been taken for granted you do not need to go back more than year or so to find rates significantly lower.
Is this trend likely to continue in 2013? I would say on balance probably not. Services data for December showed the first contraction in the sector for two years. Services is one of the main sectors of the UK economy and if in decline we should be worried. We certainly cannot rely on Manufacturing to get us out of the mess, nor Construction. Services is the main feature of the UK economy so this needs to see positive news, not negative.
24th January we have the UK GDP figures for Q4 2012 and this is the next big event for me. Tomorrow’s Bank of England and European Central Bank decisions could easily be a non event but are the main topic this week.
Should you be considering any transfers I would be more than happy to explain how to go about getting the best exchange rate. Please feel free to speak with me Jonathan directly on email@example.com or call 01494 787 478.
Sterling continues the start of 2013 with losses. The rest of the week could continue in a similar fashion for buying Euros and US Dollars. (Ben Amrany)
Sterling exchange rates has continued its recent theme of weakening against nearly every one of the 16 most actively traded currencies today. One of the biggest declines has been against the USD with rates hovering at 1.6030, while against the Euro
things are not looking up with the current exchange rate hovering around 1.2265. If the decline in the pound is a concern please feel free to contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org and I can explain the options that are available to minimise your risk to exchange rate fluctuations.
Looking forward I feel that Q1 of 2013 will be a hard time for the pound. All that we have heard since we entered the New Year is how the UK economy will have zero growth and there is an awful lot of think tanks that are predicting the UK to lose its AAA credit rating which could be disastrous for the pound should this occur.
Today we have had the UK Retail figures released and although not as bad as expected, up 1.5% compared to the same month a year earlier if it was not for online purchases – 17.8% jump in online non-food sales, total sales would have fallen. This has been sterling negative and with numerous retailers like Tesco, Sainsbury’s and M&S releasing their earnings this week there could be further misery for the pound should their profits decline.
If you are in need of buying Euros in the near future then there has been a fair bit of data to come out of the Eurozone today. Most importantly was the unemployment data which has shown that unemployment over the whole Eurozone is at its worst ever level at 11.8%
What my greatest concern is that if poor economic data to come out of the Eurozone is strengthening the Euro against the pound, what will happen when the UK posts very poor data. Could we see GBP/EUR test yearly lows? Email me your opinion at email@example.com
The next couple of days could be very volatile for anyone with a sterling/Euro or vice versa transfer to make. It all kicks off tomorrow with the Eurozone releasing their GDP figures tomorrow morning. We are expecting the 16 nation economy to have contracted but remember the unemployment figures today!!! Bad figures and the Euro still strengthened. Great if you are selling your Euros but not so good if you need to buy them. Thursday both the UK and the Eurozone will release their interest rate decisions while on Friday the UK will release their own GDP estimate for Q4 of last year.
If you do need to buy or sell any major currency then do feel free to get in contact with me. I can explain all the options that are available to you to help you minimise your risk to the markets plus help you achieve a much better rate than the high street banks would offer you. We have been helping clients for over 12 years now and if you would like our opinion to help you try and maximise your currency exchange just email me at firstname.lastname@example.org and I will come back to you as quickly as possible.
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The most eagerly awaited announcement of the week will start today at 12.30 as the Chancellor will give his Autumn statement. The Autumn statement will give his views on the outlook for the UK economy, the state of the public finances and what that means for the government’s spending plans and programme of austerity measures.
The good news from the statement has already been released: An extra £5bn investment boost will target – construction, Schools, transport, health and other capital projects.
The worry for those of you that are looking at selling the pound could come to fruition when the chancellor will reveal the true state of the nation’s financial health.
Growth forecasts and further austerity cuts, I think this will be key to how the pound performs for the rest of the week. It is extremely unlikely that we will see further growth as we are in one of the longest and deepest recessions in generations.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted in March that we would see 0.8% growth this year, 2% next year and 3% growth by 2015. It is looking more and more likely that they will downgrade their growth forecasts. If this happens then My view = Sterlingweakness.
We have heard rumours this week that the Chancellor has missed his targets to cut the deficit. This is going to be embarrassing for the government and could cause friction within the coalition. Plus if missing targets raises concerns about the UK’s credit worthiness, it could become more expensive for the government to borrow money and put pressure on the UK’s credit rating going forward.
We will find out today how much more austerity he will now impose and for how long it will last. I expect big cuts to departments and services while potential hikes in specific tax. If this happens once again I expect it to weigh on the pound now and well into the New Year bringing GBP/EUR rates down towards the 1.20 level in the next month. My View -Sterling weakness.
So today will certainly be interesting to see how the markets react to the Chancellors comments. Moving on to tomorrow their are big interest rate decisions here in the UK and the Euro zone. So if you have a requirement to sell the pound you may wish to look at securing your funds before today’s announcement. This will give you the peace of mind on what is surely going to be a volatile end to the week.
Plus if you are looking at buying Euros then be cautious as the Euro has significantly strengthened against a basket of currencies this week on teh back of Greece buying back some bonds and reducing their deficit. Euro zone GDP is out tomorrow too so if their economy does not shrink as much as anticipated then the Euro strength may just continue.
If you have a requirement a to buy or sell any major currency please feel free to contact me at email@example.com with your requirement and I will be happy to go over all the options that are available to you. the authors here at www.poundsterlingforecast.com work for one of the largest currency brokers in the UK. Not only will we give you our expert opinion but we will help you try to maximise your exchange by offering you a significantly better rate of exchange than that of your high street bank.
Pound Sterling Forecast End November / December – It is often the complacent who suffer the most…. (Jonathan)
Exchange rates move continuously for a variety of reasons. This can cause anyone considering a currency transfer headaches and happiness. An understanding of what exactly is driving your exchange rate is key to getting the best deal. Let us look briefly at some of the more common themes on the pound and some of the more popular pairs. It would be impossible (and boring if it didn’t concern you) to cover every aspect of every currency in one post so please feel free to contact me directly for more information on a particular topic or currency pair, even if it is not covered here.
GBPEUR The big news has been the agreement on Greece this week which has caused the Euro to find favour. The current sentiments for Europe are much more positive than they have been in recent months which is why the rate is now some 5 cents better for sellers than earlier in the summer. I have seen many Euro sellers entering the market this week to capitalise on these better levels. The outlook in Europe is still uncertain but with no new bad news to unsettle nerves, the Euro is stronger.
GBPUSD The rate has crept over 1.60 again which is a reflection of the better sentiments in Europe. The Dollar is a safe haven currency and will weaken when there is good news for the global economy as investors seek riskier shores. In times of uncertainty the USD will strengthen. I expect the USD will start to strengthen as no sign of a deal on the Fiscal Cliff continues. However this is still some weeks away and we could see the dollar weaken further before then as markets remain buoyant.
GBPAUD I have been writing recently of the likelihood that the Aussie will remain strong due to improvements in Chinese data. This is still the main reason for the strength of AUD but a report yesterday by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development) slashed the global growth forecasts. This coupled with a few fears over rising Unemployment in Australia has weakened the currency a touch.
Next week is the start of a new month and consequently new economic data which can move the market. Getting the best exchange rate is about being prepared for every eventuality as it is normally the complacent who suffer the most. Predicting 100% what will happen is impossible but our specialist service will help anyone considering a transfer with a really good price plus outline all the information to make an informed decision about when to enter the market.
The end of the month is usually a busy period as investors settle positions and sell off any surplus investments. You can often see some big unexpected moves on currency so don’t get caught out, register an interest with us and we can make sure you don’t miss out.
If you would like to learn more please contact me directly on firstname.lastname@example.org, 01494 787 478, thank you.
Asian Uncertainty leads to GBPJPY, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCAD and GBPZAR Spike. Will it last? (Jonathan)
I posted earlier this week on some positive news from China which had helped fuel strength on these currencies. Anyone who follows these currencies or the site may be aware that one of the main drivers on these currencies is risk sentiment. Risk sentiment can be summed up as investors attitude to risk. Are Investors keen to take a risk or not? Risk sentiment for these currencies, in particular the Aussie and Kiwi is being shaped by data from China and Japan as the Australian economy benefits from trade with these countries. And New Zealand having Australia as its main trading partner loosely tracks the Aussie. News of Japan potentially offering negative interest rates has weakened the JPY and provides some uncertainty as to the future direction of the Japanese economy.
Further interesting news this week was the new Chinese leader Xi Jinping coming into power. I have heard mixed reports over the direction Xi will be looking to take China and we are hearing tensions are still rife between Japan and China. Xi does not govern independently, he is part of a larger group of extremely powerful people in the Communist party who make the decisions. There is still a huge amount of secrecy and uncertainty over foreign policy and the decision making in China so it remains to be seen how China will react to global pressures and consequantly how this will impact the currencies mentioned.
I think it is fair to say no one wants China to continue to dominate and grow more than the Chinese. Therefore I think we can expect that good news will continue to emanate from the region as they do everything to keep the economy growing. This will ultimately keep the currencies relatively strong. A hint of uncertainty over this direction (which will as I say probably ultimately be positive) and over Japanese ties does seem to be presenting some small opportunities today. A couple of cents may not sound like much but trading £100,000 into Aussies at the high versus the low this week would have offered nearly 2000 more Australian dollars. By highlighting such movements and keeping an eye on things to buyers and sellers we can ensure you get the most from your money.
The global demand for raw materials continues and with it these currencies prosper. Consequently wobbles like we have seen this week will present opportunities for savvy buyers and sellers. The correct timing and approach to a currency trade can literally save you thousands so doing everything you can to maximise your exchange rate is key.
For a free, no obligation discussion of all the events affecting and driving your exchange rates please feel free to get in touch for further information. Jonathan Watson email@example.com 01494 787 478