Tag Archives: GBP predictions
Sterling strength across the board! Will it last until Thursday? (Jonathan Watson)
Sterling is finding better support against most currencies as a positive GDP figure is expected on Thursday. This is of course good news or bad news depending on what you need to do! A positive figure will not in my opinion be enough for sterling to shake the blues but, it may be enough to provide anyone hanging on for dear life with a little sweetener in their price!
The pound has been suffering this year and it is likely this pressure will remain. Economically the UK is in a mess! What has improved lately is the economic conditions in the US which will help UK businesses. Europe on the other hand is on the cusp of worse troubles and with less orders for UK businesses as a result, sustained economic growth from business in the months and years ahead will be difficult. You have been warned!
I suggest therefore if you are considering moving on a currency transaction you pay particular attention to what happens this Thursday. Earlier in the year I wrote about the three key issues to beware of on the pound this year. You can read the post here. The three issues were the EU referendum, the triple A rating and the triple dip recession. Two of those topics have come true, in two days time we will find the answer to the third. The pound is absolutely on the edge!
Expectations are swaying daily but the general consensus seems to be we have narrowly avoided the dip. Such data is notoriously difficult to predict and as such I expect the pound to be very volatile in the coming 48 hours. Do not mistake the UK avoiding the triple dip for proof of a return to the rates we saw last year or earlier this year. The outlook remains negative and this is why I feel anyone selling sterling for another currency should really take stock now!
If you have an exchange to consider in the next couple of weeks Thursday’s data is very much worth being aware of. Our proactive personal service aims to ensure our clients get the best information relevant to their requirements. We are currency specialists with many years experience assisting and guiding both private and corporate clients through their transfers. We offer an unbeatable rate of exchange and it is very rare any of us would be beaten on price by another company or the banks.
If you would like to check your price or learn more about how it all works please feel free to contact me Jonathan directly. We can quickly speak over the phone and I can explain exactly how it works and offer a quick assessment on your position.
My email address is jmw@currencies.co. uk and I look forward to hearing from you!
Crucial couple of days for anyone looking to make a currency exchange
With the global economy at practically standstill, I believe European events in the next few days will be key to shaping the short and medium term movements of exchange rates not just on the Euro, but also the Pound, the Dollar and all majors. Two key decisions today could more specifically also help move GBPEUR, GBPUSD and EURUSD. An exceptionally volatile few months have cooled slightly this week, but I feel things could be pushed one way or another depending on the outcome of the European summits. If you have any transfers to make it is well worth considering the impact of these events. As specialist currency brokers we can help with tools designed to protect your exchange rate. Read on to find out more about what I think will happen and how we can help limit your exposure in these uncertain times.
12.00 BoE Interest Rate Decision – The Bank of England will today announce the outcome of their latest policy meeting. Whilst no change in interest rates is expected we could well see a further round of QE announced which could cause sterling weakness. If not this month, then it is likely in the New Year. Anyone looking to sell the Pound in the New Year should really be aware of the impact this could have, it may mean your transfer is much more expensive in the New Year than now. We can book current levels forward with a forward contract. I have really seen a rise in this type of contract this week, particularly on GBPEUR as we are so close to the 9 month high. Speak to us to find out more.
12.45 ECB Interest Rate Decision – The European Central Bank will then announce their decision. It is likely we will see an interest rate cut today which could well lead to Euro weakness. This could provide the perfect buying Euros opportunity, particularly if the outcome of the summit is Euro strength (and no QE is announced in the UK!). The markets may however have already priced in a cut in rates so any movement may be fairly limited.
Movement around this time is likely to be quite volatile as investors try to second guess decisions. If you have a transfer to make and would like to be kept up to date at this time speak to me today on jmw@currencies.co.uk quoting PSF and I can keep you posted.
We also have the ongoing events in Europe with European leaders meeting for another ‘key’ summit. This session could well go on into the weekend and I think the general theme on the markets will be in one of two directions:
Signs the Euro crisis will be tackled – If the markets receive well what the leaders are discussing we should see the Euro strengthen. Signs that the crisis is being tackled should also give rise to US Dollar weakness as investors move out to other riskier assets. We should also see a strengthening of the Kiwi, Rand, Aussie and also the Canadian Dollar. Anyone looking to sell one of these currencies to buy sterling may well wish to take advantage of any spikes against the pound at this time.
Signs the Euro crisis is not being tackled – If the markets do not receive well events in Europe a reverse of the above will likely happen. We will probably see the Euro weaken and the US Dollar stregthen as investors fears over the global economy cause a flight to safety. There will also be a knock on effect on the currencies mentioned above which will weaken as investors move to other assests like the Dollar.
The last six months have been a very difficult time for anyone making currency exchanges. The pound has rallied and fallen against all the majors as global events cause shock and panic. One of the major drivers on all exchange rates has been the Euro crisis and the possibility this will be tackled or not should cause a move in one direction or the other as stated above.
Of course there are no hard fast rules on the currency markets and anything can happen! If you have an upcoming transfer, even months ahead it may be of interest to speak to us to find out all your options. As well as booking today’s rates forward for future purchase we can also put orders into the market to trade at certain levels so your exchange doesn’t become more expensive than you had bargained for. Lookout for further updates and analysis on the site today and if you would like any specific information relating to the content on the site or your personal transfers feel free to e-mail me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk quoting PSF.
