Tag Archives: GBPEUR exchange rates

Sterling very high against the Euro (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR exchange rates have ended the week strongly after a mixed week on the currency markets.

UK services data which was released on Wednesday gave Sterling a push towards 1.27 and alongside the positive announcements made in the Autumn Statement this helped the Pound gain against the single currency.

However, during the ECB press conference which came on Thursday afternoon Sterling fell by almost 1% against the Euro. ECB president Mario Draghi suggested that the central bank are putting steps in place to change monetary policy soon. This could take place in the first quarter of 2015.

This helped to give strength to the Euro as stability helps to strengthen the currency involved. However, the gains were short term as on Friday Sterling went back to almost 1.27 on the Interbank level.

Tomorrow sees the release of Eurozone industrial production data and anything lower than expected could see Euro weakness creating some excellent opportunities to buy Euros.

Arguably the most important data of the week will be Tuesday afternoon with the release of the UK’s NIESR GDP estimate. A strong reading could see Sterling get close to the 2 year high hit in October for GBPEUR exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBPEUR rates spike higher above 1.27 but fall back very quickly!

GBPEUR has fallen from 1.2755 as the high today back down towards 1.2637 as Mario Draghi disappointed on the big Eurozone ‘QE’ question. In fact what we saw was him refrain from announcing a full blown QE operation. This caused the Euro to strengthen and I think represents a good opportunity for anyone selling the Euro in the future. Longer term it does seem very likely that the Euro will be weaker against the pound, on balance if you are buying sterling with Euros buying on the dips is the best way to maximise your transfer.

The big gamble on GBP rates in 2015 is going to be the election. It would not be surprising to see an increase in voter apathy and the old 2 or 3 way party system split yet further. If you have any major transactions in the New Year making some careful plans now might be a very good idea. We offer a range of contract options including the option to fix prices for the future and trade automatically at certain higher or lower rates. A quick discussion with us over the best strategy to maximise your deal really might be best the course of action. Just look at the high to low movements today! A well placed order could really make a big difference in rates on a large volume of currency.

If you wish to learn more please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Euro Strengthens against Sterling (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR exchange rates have ended the week down following a whole host of Eurozone data due out earlier today.

German Retail Sales showed an improvement up to 1.7% from the expected 1.4% which is seen as a good sign for the Eurozone as a whole.

As Germany is the Eurozone’s leading economy any positive signs often helps to strengthen the single currency and this is what has happened today.

Eurozone inflation came out at 0.3% year on year which although is very low it came in on the estimate.

It is likely that the European Central Bank will intervene with monetary policy but whether or not this will happen next Thursday is up for debate. Typically a central bank does not like to change policy in December so I think we will not see a change until either January or February.

However, I am confident that comments from the ECB president Mario Draghi will possible strengthen the Euro as I think he’ll talk about the upcoming change which is likely to settle the unrest at the moment.

Next week we have the release of UK manufacturing data as well as mortgage approvals on Monday morning. Both these are likely to cause volatility on Sterling vs Euro exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Currency Forecast 2015 – Knowing what may happen in the future allows you to free up time and limit your risk…

GBP

The pound has been one of the best performers of 2014. Will this be the case for 2015? I have to say for the earlier part of 2015 it looks highly unlikely as a very uncertain General Election should cause GBP weakness. We saw this with the Scottish referendum in September. It is not just the outcome here that is important. Business confidence will be significantly lower as both international and domestic businesses alongside individuals refrain from key decisions owing to the uncertainty. This election will be fought and possibly won or lost on the European question and this will greatly unsettle financial markets which in my opinion have failed to so far price this important event in.

Generally speaking the raising and lowering of interest rates causes a currency to fluctuate. If a central bank actually raise rates (or market observers think they might in the future) the currency should strengthen. If there are thoughts that they will lower rates the currency will weaken.

Applying this to the UK, expectations for most of the summer the bank would raise interest rates caused the pound to spike. Remember currency markets move on rumour and speculation as much as fact. This speculation has now been pushed back (and may be pushed even further back) into 2015, if not 2016. If this is the case it is likely sterling will likely fall further.

If you are expecting a larger currency purchase in the first half of 2015 there might be some good arguments for utilising a forward contract to fix current exchange rates. We were in an almost identical position 2 years ago on GBPEUR approaching Christmas and by March had dropped some ten cents.

Part of our service is keep you updated and examine strategies that will protect you from unexpected swings on the currency market so please email on jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options available to you.

Euro

Inflation is the rate at which prices rise or fall. Rapidly rising or falling prices can destabilise an economy and managing Inflation has been a key aspect of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) economic policy in 2014.

Mario Draghi, President of the ECB has stated that the new year may see the ECB ramp up their Quantitative Easing (QE) programme. The ECB’s approach to their economic situation has changed in 2014 from reactive to proactive with a range of measures to try and encourage growth being put in place.

QE (sometimes referred to as printing money) is where a central bank injects money into an economy to rejuvenate it and some observers have predicted the future will be a ‘stagflationary’ period in the Eurozone. This is where an economy fails to grow and inflation is a problem. It might be that just like Japan and the US before the ECB needs to continuously be ramping up the QE presses, this could lead to Euro volatility depending how the market digests such news.

Predicting 2015’s movements on Euro rates could prove very difficult but with a large amount of policy having been decided on in 2014, it may be the Euro is more susceptible to movements from other currencies.

USD

As we expected the dollar has recovered but just like with sterling the rise is mainly linked to expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in 2015.

The US economy is finally performing well but is this mainly down to the trillions of dollars we have seen pumped into markets from their QE programme? The end of the Fed’s QE programme may yet unsettle markets, slowdowns in China, the Eurozone and the UK could see the US once again roll out the QE presses.

I would personally not be holding on for them to raise interest rates anytime soon and USDGDP traders might wish to take stock of the 15 cents improvements.

For more information on the forecast and to be kept up to date with the latest news please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

How well do you really understand what is driving your exchange rate?

The pound looks likely to rise against most of the major currencies longer term as the UK appears likely to raise interest rates in the future. This is important because the raising and lowering of interest rates by a central bank greatly affects the strength or weakness of a currency. Understanding this fact – that the raising and lowering of interest rates greatly affects the strength and weakness of a currency – is key to predicting where exchange rates are headed.

One of the major reasons for GBP strength in 2014 is high expectations the UK would raise interest rates in 2014. This expectation has been pushed well back into 2015, if not 2016 and anyone holding on for this to happen to make an exchange had better have a long time to do so! I remember in 2012 we were almost in an identical position , with expectations high the UK would raise interest rates in the coming year or two. We then had the Eurozone crisis deteriorate (remember Greece on the brink of leaving the Eurozone) and the following Spring the UK entered a triple dip recession and the pound crashed from 1.24 to 1.14 in about 6 weeks!

I do not think we are likely to see such a sharp move but with the General Election and increased political uncertainty on the cards for 2015 a tough patch for the pound appears highly likely. Even though May 2015 seems many months away it is not actually that far in terms of exchange rates. Considering you have seen anywhere from 5-15 cents movement per year for the last few years on GBPEUR, making some plans now for currency in the new year is clearly sensible. 

We offer a range of contract options to fix exchange rates at currency levels and also to automatically purchase when a desired rate is hit (stop / loss and limit order). Speaking with or emailing us with a brief outline of your situation carries no obligation. We are currency specialists who are here to assist in the safe planning and execution of your transfers.

The real risk on exchange rates is doing nothing and leaving it all to chance so to learn more please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk,

I look forward to hearing from you.

Thank you,

Jonathan

GBPEUR Set for an Interesting Week (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR exchange rates have been trading between 1.27-1.28 during the course of last week as the ECB chose not to intervene with any monetary policy last week even though signs are that inflation is still worryingly low and Eurozone unemployment is high. Growth forecasts have also been recently cut for both this year and next. This has led Sterling Euro rates during this month to hit close to a 2 year high this month.

Eurozone GDP is due out on Friday and with expectations for just 0.1% for the quarter anything lower could see the Euro weaken. Germany has contracted by 0.2% during the previous quarter and as the Eurozone’s largest economy this could weigh heavily on future growth and therefore I think Friday’s figures could make bad reading and therefore see GBPEUR rise. Indeed, if the GDP data is negative this could put pressure on the ECB to change monetary policy next month.

Wednesday could be a very interesting day for Sterling exchange rates with the release of both UK unemployment as well as the Quarterly Inflation Report. UK unemployment is only just behind that of the US and inflation is much higher than the Eurozone. I expect the unemployment data to be strong but the Inflation Report could cause volatility for Sterling as inflation last month fell more than expected which has put an interest rate rise further back

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

What to look out for on the pound in the coming months…

When considering making a currency exchange an understanding of what is driving the exchange rate is vital to getting the most from the market. How can you make a decision on when is the right time to enter the market if you don’t know what is happening? The idea of this blog is to provide information on just where rates are headed and make sure you get the best price when you do decide to enter the market.

Sterling has done really well this year as the UK economy improves and investors position themselves for the UK to raise interest rates. Next year we would expect the UK elections to move the market, the increased uncertainty surrounding the political situation in the UK is bound to cause ripples on exchange rates. If you have a transaction that you need to consider why not get in touch with our specialist team to find out more about moving money internationally at the very best rates.

Please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk for a quick overview of your position

How will UKIP affect sterling?

UKIP continue to make gains in polls and are certainly likely to be a thorn in the side of the more established parties, indeed they already have been. But is this more a reflection of the tough times ahead for the UK (and the pound) or a flash in the pan protest vote?

UKIP have the power to severely undermine confidence in sterling. there is tremendous uncertainty posed by a party with no solid economic idea from what I have seen. Aside from promising to withdraw from Europe and playing on peoples immigration fears it is difficult to find concrete policy. Let it be known that any withdrawal from Europe would have wide reaching consequences for the UK economy and hence the pound. Whilst it might be welcomed we examine the relationship with Europe the economic benefits of being part of Europe should not be underestimated.

We shall learn much more about the true effects of UKIP on the pound in the next few months as we have bi-election and then the General Election in May 2015. The effect on sterling from increased political uncertainty will undoubtedly be negative and anyone hoping to see sterling keep climbing in 2014 and beyond might be disappointed.

To keep up to date with the pound and how important events affect your exchange please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will it be a busy and positive end to the week for the pound?

Early indications suggest yes! The pound has clearly been the favourite currency of 2014 as the UK leaves its counterparts behind with solid economic growth and economic policies all pointing towards raising interest rates. For me this trend is not finished and whilst the pound has clearly come slightly unstuck this October (the month economic realities often hit home, remember the Wall St crash?) longer term sterling really should remain the investors choice.

Risks remain from the Eurozone slowdown (40% of the UK’s overseas trade is with the Eurozone) and a general deterioration in the global economic outlook but on balance the UK is benefiting from improved domestic demand and whilst it may be that sterling does dip a little more as interest rate expectations are pushed back, I still believe the UK will raise interest rates ahead of the United States. I therefore view any dip in sterling as a buying opportunity well worth capitalising on.

Tomorrow’s Retail figures will be a big indicator as to whether or not the this domestic demand is sustainable and Friday’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will again be very indicative of just exactly how the UK is faring, I would personally expect sterling to fall tomorrow but rise Friday. If you are considering an upcoming exchange why not speak with me to learn a little more about the forecast?

What exactly should I do? I cannot unfortunately tell you exactly what to do or when to buy the currency, no one can! I can however keep an eye on the rates for you and highlight improvements and upcoming events which will affect the exchange. The uncertainty of the foreign exchange market means making firm decisions is impossible and it is only by speaking with a true specialist you can fully understand what may happen down the line.

For more information please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk

UK Unemployment Falls leading to Sterling Strength (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR exchange rates have fallen from levels of 1.28 in the last fortnight into the 1.25 region following a period  of weak data for the UK economy and also Sterling.

Yesterday’s UK inflation data was alarmingly low compared to the expectation which means the Bank of England is less likely to raise interest rates any time soon. An interest rate rise would typically strengthen the Pound and this data has caused Sterling to weaken.

However, all is not lost as this morning UK unemployment has shown a big fall and now below 2 million which is very good news for the British economy.

According to the Office for National Statistics the unemployment rate has now reached 6% and the lowest level since 2008. Now there are over 30 million people in work in the UK. With Eurozone unemployment above 12% at the moment this news has helped Sterling regain some of its recent losses against the Euro.

If you have a currency requirement to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

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