Tag Archives: GBPEUR exchange rates
Buying Euro and Dollar rates boosted from Presidential debate (Joshua Privett)
Anyone with a Euro and Dollar buying requirement are now entering a phase where a new ongoing narrative will be continuing to influence the currency markets, the US election cycle.
Anyone with a GBP/EUR requirement may question why their situation would be affected by the US election? Simply put it heavily influences global attitude to risk. With the current climate in the leave-vote atmosphere, risk is everything.
The Pound’s value has been hit repeatedly in recent months precisely because of its instability and the risk involved in holding Sterling whilst the UK’s economic future has come into question.
We are now entering the heavy campaign season in the US. The election is only a month away, and Trump is closing on Clinton. She can no longer be comfortably deemed the front-runner, and therefore we may be seeing the surprise result in the US election as we had in the EU Referendum. We have little understanding about what Trump’s cryptic plan is for the social and economic fabric for the world’s largest economy, and with the expected Republican majority in their Congress, he could have largely free reign. As such the same anticipation is becoming heavily visible in the market place as it was in the lead up to the June vote.
Heightened global risk means that the Pound no-longer appears as the black sheep among its global currency counterparts who are enjoying greater stability.
In reality the UK’s recent ability to weather the storm of the Brexit vote is being viewed with a more positive tone from investors. With China leaking noises of further crisis and the US economy entering a heavily uncertain period (which was so strong they decided not to raise interest rates there this month despite their recent economic performance suggesting the economy could handle the move), the Pound should enjoy having some pressure relieved with the spotlight being pointed elsewhere.
So those with a buying Euro and Dollar requirement have breathed a sigh of relief with GBP/EUR and GBP/USD both recording marginal gains to begin the day.
Further revelations on business confidence in the US will come with an assessment of attitude in the financial services sector of the US economy at 4pm today, which could see this rally for the Pound continue.
In this current hypersensitive market a premium is put on being in a position to move quickly should any tempting opportunities emerge in the time period you have to complete your transfer.
With so much of the current market governed by politics (US Election, Brexit) rather than economics, the landscape can also change much more quickly. I offer a very proactive service to keep my customers informed of any potential changes in the currency landscape to assist you in planning for an upcoming transfer in the short or medium turn.
I recommend that if you have a Euro or Dollar buying requirement in particular to contact me today on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options open to you to make sure any attractive levels that you are aiming for are seized immediately should they become available, and that you are not ‘last to the party’. There is also the potential to safeguard your transfer from any adverse movements.
As a point of note I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere to my current customers, and if you are not a regular reader, you should also be aware that current buying levels available can be fixed in place for a future transfer – essentially allowing you to ‘pre-book’ your currency and avoid the risk entirely from the current market. Given this I can confidently say that a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.
Euro and Dollar sellers can also get in contact for an immediate quote now that we have touch back to these fresh lows on GBP/EUR and GBP/USD only a few days ago.
Please feel free to fill out the form below and I will be in contact as soon as I am able.
What really lies ahead for sterling exchange rates?
The rollercoaster ride of 2016 on sterling exchange rates is far from over! There are still numerous events up ahead to trigger large unexpected swings that will impact the value of your currency purchase, have you made any plans for this? Understanding how markets react, all of your options and having a helpful hand to guide you through will offer a real advantage to securing the best rate of exchange.
Economic data in the UK is not the main driver for the pound, the big factor is political concerns relating to the Brexit plus attitutudes to the UK viewed from a global perspective. Take the USD this week, we saw a big devaluing in the value of sterling for no real reason other than the fact the USD was appreciating in value in the face of a possible US Interest rate rise. Sterling was sold off as traders backed the buck – more on this later. Numerous data sets showing a relatively healthy UK economy should be taken with a pinch of salt until we get the firm economic data for the the quarter since the Referendum next month.
Sterling exchange rates will remain volatile and lacking direction until we get clear direction from the UK Government as to when Article 50 will be triggered. For now clients buying and selling the pound will have to contend with the mixed messages emanating from politicians. Theresa May has said she is in no rush to trigger Article 50, Boris Johnson indicated this week it might be early 2017 – and was soon lambasted for saying this.
Looking at some of the big banks predictions on sterling rates offers little help. Lloyds are predicting 1.20 by the year end whilst Dankse Bank are showing 1.08! All in all if you are looking to buy the pound there are likely to be further improvements between now and the New Year. Much will of course depend on which currency you are holding on what happens. If you are selling US Dollars will a Trump Presidency send the USD into freefall? Or will the steady hand of Clinton see the US raise interest rates at Christmas? If you are selling Euros will a decline in Eurozone economic activity trigger a further round of Quantitative Easing by the ECB? Or will renewed confidence in the region stem from uncertainty elsewhere?
It is currently the best time to buy the pound with US Dollars in 30 years and the best in 3 years with Euros. This isn’t great news if you are holding pounds looking to US Dollars, Euros or any other currency but as you can see things could get easily get worse for sterling.
In such an uncertain market with no clear direction a careful examination of all of your options including the Stop Loss and Limit order is crucial. A Stop Loss limits any losses if rates fall, a Limit order guarantees a price if rates rise. A forward contract allows you to lock in today’s rate for settlement up to 18 months in the future. 
It is almost six months ago today I was asked to speak on the BBC regarding the Brexit. At the time I suggested that on a Leave vote the UK economy would not just wither away. I pointed to the hundreds of thousands of businesses and consumers doing trade across border and highlighted how even on a Leave vote those links would remain. I discussed with the interviewer how nothing would change quickly and markets would have time to digest any news following an initial shock. All of this has so far proved true and it is with confidence I predict that the coming months will not see any fundamental changes in the situation, I believe that will all be reserved for 2017. However there will be lots of movement on the pound as the markets react to all manner of speculation and rumour just like it has since and leading up to the vote.
If you wish to discuss all of your options, the market and what to look out for on the rates please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. I am Chief Analyst and Associate Director of the UK’s largest privately owned foreign exchange PLC brokerage and have been working for our company for 7 years of the 17 it has been in business. If you have a transaction to make I will discuss with you all of the options available and everything happening in the market to help you maximise your exchange rate. Even if you believe you have everything covered it might be useful for another pair of eyes to have a look to provide some useful information.
Buying Euro and Dollar rates see some support today after a nervous week (Joshua Privett)
Today has been the first day since last Friday where the net result for the day is actually in the green for anyone considering buying Euros, US Dollars or Australian Dollars. Whilst the gains are not enough to send anyone jumping around the room, it is a signal to markets that the narrative surrounding the Pound has changed.
Part of this is that there has been some positive news today from the UK itself, with confirmation that car manufacturing numbers have reached a record high post-Brexit producing a diamond from what has been a rough week for Sterling across the board.
So the cheap Pound is boosting exports, but this is struggling to challenge the dominant narrative surrounding the Pound which has been interest rates. But again, we are seeing some respite in this area for Euro and Dollar buyers.
The reason for the slide on the Pound which this website has extensively covered was due to the heavy hints last Thursday that there may be a further interest rate cut in the UK before the turn of the year. Coupled with the profit taking activities by speculators on Friday afternoons, the effect this had on the Pound was severe with 2 cent losses on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD last Friday.
The pressure was also piled on Sterling as the USA were on the verge of actually raising rates yesterday evening, yet shied away at the last moment. Indirectly, this would have made the Pound seem like a less attractive commodity by comparison if the Dollar had raised interest rates. The avoidance of this means the Pound won’t be losing value in this area due to decreased demand.
Tomorrow the main attraction for currency markets will be business confidence figures in the Eurozone for their service and manufacturing sectors, which are set to slow a slight decrease from previous months due to some of the recent slowdowns recorded in Eurozone’s powerhouse economy – Germany. This should creating tempting opportunities on GBP/EUR to compliment the 0.7 cent rise seen today.
However, Friday profit taking should come around the corner once more for anyone with an upcoming currency requirement, whether buying Euros or Dollars.
As the above paragraph alluded to, on Fridays high street traders who have been speculating heavily on the currency markets all week must allocate their profits in a stable currency whilst they are away from their desks. This protects their gains whilst markets are still operating from 6-11pm on Friday and 2-6am on Monday before they return. The Pound has been anything but stable in recent weeks, so we are seeing demand for it plummet during this period, and therefore its value by association.
So based on the current expectations Euro buyers in particular could see some improved opportunities during the first part of tomorrow, yet Euro and Dollar buyers alike will likely suffer.
If you have a GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, or GBP/AUD requirement in the short to medium term I strongly recommend contacting me this evening or tomorrow morning on jjp@currencies.co.uk whilst markets are quieter to discuss the options open to you to ensure any tempting peaks which emerge tomorrow are reached, and that your currency purchase is safeguarded from any particularly adverse movements.
With the expected volatility tomorrow a well timed transfer could save you thousands on an upcoming purchase, and I will highlight that I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere in the past.
Euro or Dollar buyers can also fix the rate of exchange ahead of an upcoming transfer, essentially pre-booking your currency, to avoid seeing the budget of any future purchase being eaten into.
Euro and Dollar sellers alike can also get in contact to discuss the potential to secure any highs reached to buy the Pounds during the final hours of the week, as you can secure a desired level should it become available even for a few moments outside of UK trading hours. You can fill out the form below and I respond as soon as I am able to.
Buying Euro and Dollar rates see gradual decline in an odd day for the Pound (Joshua Privett)
The big market movers today came out between 8-10 am BST with buying Euro and Dollar rates barely flinching. However, following from 11am, the Pound began to slowly sink in the GBP/EUR and GBP/USD pairings but has begun to stabilise which why I am writing this article now.
The focal point for markets this morning was inflation data being released for the Eurozone and the UK. Whilst the inflation levels for the UK came in slightly lower than expected, it was still a vast improvement from August’s figures and leaps and bounds ahead of what inflation was showing in the Eurozone. To put it in context inflation rates for the UK in a single month were what the Eurozone are expected to accumulate over the entire year.
Yet the Pound still managed to depreciate against some currencies, mainly Euros and US Dollars. To explain this bizarre day we need to take a short-term view at what markets will be looking ahead to before the weekend.
Firstly, and most importantly, tomorrow is being touted as a bit of a wildcard for the Pound. The release of employment and wage data for the UK economy is one of the only ‘blind’ pieces of data the UK will be producing this month. I say blind because markets do not have much of an indication as to what the data may yield, when normally previous results are quite suggestive.
We are still very much in uncharted waters following the leave vote, and because any job cuts will take a few months to show up with notice periods being filled, the news coming out in the morning tomorrow is expected to show us the first look at how the leave vote has impacted the jobs market.
This is probably why the Pound’s recent rally has been eaten into today, as speculators are moving their funds into other currencies to avoid the risk surrounding the event. I expect rates to recover to some degree tomorrow once markets get an opportunity to see the results. With the storm passing the consensus will likely be to buy up the cheap excess Pounds in a frenzy, unless the results are truly dire. When demand immediately rises we will see a parallel increase in its value.
Following this, as my article on this website over the weekend covered, Thursday is expected to see the UK’s ability to weather the storm of the leave vote to be showered with praise by Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, during the monetary policy statement and subsequent interest rate decision. Again this is suggestive at further confidence returning to the Pound.
With expectations for an immediate opportunity for Sterling buyers tomorrow, Euro and Dollar sellers may be wise to take advantage of the likely short-term (and essentially artificial) opportunities created by these abnormal trading patterns.
Euro and Dollar buyers however, I recommend to get in contact with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options open to you to make sure any tempting levels which you are aiming over the next few days and potentially weeks for are seized and that you are protected from any adverse movements which may occur during this volatile period.
During Carney’s Q+A session on Thursday, the two hour period will cover all aspects of the UK economy, with the positive or negative nature of each changing the Pound’s value by association. The rates as such will be more volatile than normal, so if you wish to take advantage of any spikes, there are a number of options available through my service to ensure these aren’t missed – even if they are available for only a few moments.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and given than the average difference on Pound buying rates each day is around 1% between the high and the low, a well-timed transfer could save you thousands on an upcoming currency exchange. You can also fill out the form below and I will contact you as soon as I am available.
Buying Euro and Dollar rates set for further improvements this week (Joshua Privett)
Euro and Dollar buyers are already seeing some improvements this morning after some concerning dives at the back end of last week.
After a slow day today with little news to swing, GBP/EUR, GBP/USD or GBP/AUD either way, markets already seem to be looking ahead to later in the week and Tuesday will be when the ball really begins to roll for the week.
German inflation data should crack the already thinning armour on the Euro’s value, as the Eurozone’s powerhouse economy continues to flounder in this key area when measuring a currency’s value.
This should be complimented by the polar opposite in the UK with own inflation data which, after close to 15 months of consecutively underwhelming data, has had a sudden turnaround since the Brexit in June. It seems a healthy mixture of a cheaper Pound, increased summer consumer activity, alongside the gradual rise in oil prices is putting the UK back on course for its yearly target of 2% inflation.
On Thursday, we shall also have the Bank of England interest rate decision and subsequent monetary policy statement. In August Euro and Dollar buyers will remember how this triggered a 2.5% loss on Sterling’s value in the space of three business days when the Bank cut interest rates.
Yet now the outlook for the UK economy is more cheerful. Business confidence surveys have seen the largest single-month improvement in over 25 years, and Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, was echoing these sentiments and praising the effects of the BOE’s recent economic intervention at a deposition to Parliament last week.
Should he echo those noises in the press conference, this increased confidence from the man at the helm of the UK economy should recoup some of the recent losses on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD since the Referendum.
However, there is a wildcard. UK unemployment data will be released on Wednesday which will be our first look at this area since the Leave vote (as notice periods have to be filled if there have been any job cuts or hiring freezes). Whilst forecasts are for job losses and a rise in those claiming unemployment benefits, the expectation is for a relatively small impact. But we have been surprised in this area before. There were a number of articles of job cuts at major financial institutions following the Brexit, and the wildcard is how many of these, and people in other sectors, managed to land on their feet immediately?
Just due to the sheer volume of information set to come out this week, anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me today on my direct line – 01494 787 478 – to discuss the options open to you to make sure any opportunities which emerge over the week are seized before any market snap-backs, and to ensure you are protected as you ride this marked sentiment against any adverse movements. If I am on the phone one the reception team will answer and try to put you through if I will be available within a few moments
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere by other currency exchange brokerages, and particularly high street banks. As such, with assistance in timing your transfer a brief conversation could save you a significant percentage on your upcoming Euro or Dollar purchase.
Euro and Dollar sellers can also get in contact to hear a live quote immediately, given that the outlook for this week seems largely detrimental for anyone considering moving a foreign currency into Sterling. You can also email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk or fill out the form below.
ECB drags their feet again and buying Euro, US Dollar and AUD rates suffer as a result (Joshua Privett)
The European Central Bank once more refused to give any hints to the marketplace about any future changes in policy, which caused the biggest hurt to buying Euro rates. However, the Pound also suffered as a side-effect with buying US and Australian Dollar rates ticking south as well.
Excitement was high ahead of the press conference this afternoon with Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank. 80% of economists polled by well known financial data company Bloomberg were expecting an announcement in the short-term that the current Eurozone financial stimulus package will have to be extended beyond the current March 2017 deadline, and above the €1.7 trillion threshold.
This is because after two years with this package in place, inflation in the Eurozone has remained close to zero. Given that the world is still on edge at the potential repercussions of the Brexit vote, most (myself included) had justifiably expected some reassurance from Draghi that emergency stimulus would be extended and increased to preempt any further fall-out. Like the Bank of England at the beginning of August, any financial intervention would have weakened the currency making it a cheaper prospect.
With the very vague announcement that it could be extended, onlookers were left dissapointed and in the dark. The Euro strengthened off the back of the news that further money would not be printed to fund this stimulus, which is why buying Euro rates suffered as a result.
Ahead of the event the Pound also seemed relatively attractive and was gaining whatever investment the Euro was losing in the run-up to Draghi’s Q+A session with the press this afternoon. With the surprise inaction by Draghi the marginal improvements for the Pound have been lost so rates deflated slightly even for buying Dollar rates.
Foreign currency buyers however can expect some respite next week with a few key data sets expected to imbue some further confidence in the UK’s ability to weather the storm of the Brexit.
In the short term the Pound is expected to struggle ahead of the weekend due to the weekly phenomenon of profit taking where traders store their profits in a stable currency of choice for the weekend. Since the Brexit vote understandably the Pound is not one of these, and the resulting loss of demand for Sterling is seeing it falter against most of its currency pairings, but this normally recovers by Monday morning when markets reopen.
If you have a Sterling buying requirement you have been presented with further opportunities ahead of a week where the Pound is expected to make net gains against most of its pairings. I recommend that if you are in a position to move shortly then key hours on Friday afternoon should increase the movements in your favour in addition to today’s improvement.
I offer a proactive service to keep customers informed of movements during these notoriously short windows where favourable movements are expected to ensure any opportunities are seized. You can contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a plan of action for your Sterling purchase aimed at maximizing your currency return.
Furthermore if you are looking to buy Euros, US and/or Australian Dollars and want to have a conversation about how the Bank of England interest rate decision, monetary policy statement, and unemployment data may benefit your upcoming transfer next week, then fill out the form below or please feel free to email me as well and I will reply as soon as I am available.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and given that the average difference between the high and the low each day on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD has increased since the Referendum, a well-timed transfer could save you thousands on an upcoming purchase.
Sterling Rallies on Positive UK Data – Pound Forecast (Daniel Charles Johnson)
Pound Forecast
Following the electorates decision to vote to leave the EU the pound fell significantly against the majority of major currencies. The general consensus amongst market analysts was that post- brexit data would be negative and Sterling would weaken as a result. It seems the British have decided to keep calm and carry on and we have seen some very impressive UK data of late. Last week saw manufacturing and construction data come in well above expectations. UK manufacturing was the best single month improvement for twenty-five years. On Monday Sterling gained further momentum following impressive services data.
Despite the welcome rise in Sterling strength I would be wary of counting on it’s continued rise. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the market, Many significant international players with headquarters in the capital have threatened to relocate following the referendum vote. The Bank of England has also indicated it’s willingness to take further monetary policy action should poor data begin to filter through. Add also the reluctance to push the button on article 50 and the vast difficulties created by trade negotiations and you realise Sterling’s rally may not continue so rapidly.
Keep an eye on UK Trade Balance and Consumer expectations on Friday at 08.30 GMT, this could cause volatility.
If you have a currency requirement it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such a volatile times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. You would be looking at around a 4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog. The quickest method to get in touch is by filling in the form below and we will be in touch ASAP.
Buying Euros expected to become dearer after Monday (Joshua Privett)
After a stable final two weeks in August for the Pound and a fantastic initial two days in September for anyone with an upcoming Euro a Dollar requirement, it will now see its first tests over the next couple of weeks.
First, the good news:
Like clockwork we have come to expect that late on Friday afternoons Sterling begins to slip against the Euro and the various Dollars due to the phenomenon of profit-taking in the markets. Traders dealing with the 8-9 figure transactions at high street institutions have to choose a stable currency with which to store their profits in for the weekend. Quite understandably, due to the recent ‘leave’ vote the Pound is quite low on the list of desired currencies.
With the sudden fall of demand on Friday afternoons the Pound’s value plummets, with the gains made from Thursday’s strong manufacturing figures eaten into as a result. However, with trading commencing once more on Monday, normal activity resumes and the flood of demand for the cheaper Pound tends to offset these repeated losses. Unless any sudden political curveballs come out on Sunday, I fully expect buying Euro rates to be back above 1.19, GBP/USD to bridge 1.33, and GBP/AUD to begin testing the 1.75/6 boundaries.
However, with the new month comes another warning for a repeat performance of the Pound during the first two weeks of August, where GBP/EUR fell by almost 6 cents as just one example.
The first two weeks of each month see the heaviest releases of data showing economic performance infromation for all major global countries, with the value of their currency shifting based on the positive or negative nature of the results. Last month the UK’s was so immediately concerning that an interest rate cut was implemented, as well as an extension of emergency financial stimulus to the economy.
This month a further cut is not expected, however, the poor performance in key sectors last month – business confidence, the financial services sector, and UK investment – are set to perpetuate this negative spotlight on the Pound.
Furthermore, new data sets which could not be looked at until now following the Referendum, such as unemployment changes, are expected to put further pressure on those considering a Euro or Dollar purchase.
Eurozone growth figures on Tuesday are the main external red-flag for anyone considering purchasing Euros in the coming weeks. These are expected to reflect the continued turnaround in growth fortunes since January for the single-market.
Wednesday will have UK manufacturing production figures. In contrast to Thursday’s overwhelmingly positive business sentiment surveys for this sector (mainly based on future demand expectations brought forth from a cheaper Pound), these will be concrete growth figures for the sector which will not have registered much improvement yet. I expect this return to the present rather than excitement for an improved outlook a few months from now to undercut the Pound further, creating greater expense for anyone with a Euro, USD, or AUD buying requirment.
With a quiet Monday expected to see some marginal gains for the Pound, and with the potential stumbling blocks in the immediate term, and over the course of this data heavy two week period, Euro and Dollar buyers alike may be wise to seize the recent gains in their favour after the bell rings for the first day of a new week of trading.
If you wish to discuss the options open to you to take advantage of any such peaks should they emerge on Monday, or if you wish to devise a plan of action for a future transfer aimed at maximising your currency return, you can contact me over the weekend on jjp@currencies.co.uk or fill out the form below.
Whether you are selling or buying Sterling, I have never had an issue beating the rates exchange offered through alternative avenues, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on an upcoming transfer.
Furthermore, if you have a requirement later in the year and wish to secure the current exchange rates available now for your purchase you can do so using what is commonly termed as a forward contract, which is essentially a ‘buy now, pay later’ option.
