Tag Archives: GBPEUR exchange rates
What can we expect for sterling in 2014
Well folks it is that time of year when we reflect on the year so far and look to next year. As the site suggest we make forecasts and the forecast for sterling in 2014 would have to be positive. What are the possible pitfalls however and against which currencies will see the most gains? And what can you do to maximise your deals with this knowledge?
Watch the US – where is market sentiment?
The UK is leading the pack with the highest growth rates amongst European economies. The US is growing faster but their QE programme is without doubt fuelling these increases. At some point the US will have to turn off the QE taps and there will be a very strong market reaction not just on the US dollar but on the euro, pound almost every other currency.
Market Sentiment is a key determinant of the value of sterling. If investors are confident in the global economic outlook the pound should do well as the UK relies heavily on trade from overseas and the services sector which makes up a large part of our economy, relies on international trade.
Contract Options
The pound is likely to do well in 2014 as the global economic outlook improves and the UK recovery remains on track. Of course there are many pitfalls ahead and so the right type of contract is key. A forward contract is the perfect way to lock in your rate for the future without exposing yourself. If you are unsure about how this works or would like any information on the currency markets it really is worth your while speaking to us. Please feel free to speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk
Pitfalls, highs and lows
I expect the EU referendum and Eurozone debt crisis will be key factors that could affect sterling rates in 2014. The Aussie looks likely to be on the back foot as does the rand so I think sterling will push higher against these currencies. Whilst the early part of the year should see GBPUSD at similair levels, the prospect of QE tapering means GBPUSD should drop to the kind of levels we saw earlier this year. Although if you ask me we are a very long away away from the US economy being ready to give up its QE addiction.
I do hope you have found this information useful and look forward to hearing from you if you would like to learn more about our excellent rates, informative forecasts and friendly helpful service.
Jonathan
Why has Sterling Fallen against the Euro & Dollar? (Tom Holian)
GBPEUR exchange rates and GBPUSD exchange rates took a turn for the worse yesterday following the news delivered in the Autumn Statement. The UK’s growth forecast has been raised up for both the end of this year and next year but revised figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that UKGDP dropped by 7.2% during 2008-2009 and not 6.3% a previously estimated. This saw Sterling’s confidence fall against the Euro in particular and later in the day we saw falls against the Dollar as US GDP came out higher than expected.
US GDP was measured at 3.6% in the third quarter of this year higher than estimates of 2.8%. This growth rate was the best since the first quarter of last year and shows signs that the US recovery is fully under way and their continued use of QE has seemingly worked albeit for the time being. The Fed next meet on December 17th-18th and QE will most likely be on the agenda. IF we see any tapering we could see GBPUSD rates drop below 1.60 both in the lead up to the announcement and straight after. With GBPUSD rates hitting their highest level in 4 years earlier this week the Dollar fought back quickly after this data release.
With the Bank of England and ECB deciding to keep interest rates on hold this gave the Euro some strength as there have been hints that the UK economy could afford an interest rate increase and that the ECB has decided against cutting their cash rate to negative which saw some confidence pumped back into the single currency. Rates on mid-market hit 1.1940 after hitting 1.21+ during this week’s trading sessions.
Later toda the US releases its Non-Farm Payroll data which is often the biggest market mover as far as data is concerned so if you’re worried about the consequences this may have on your currency purchase then get in touch with me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk Having worked for one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokers for 11 years I’m confident of saving you money when buying your currency.
If you’re considering buying Australian Dollars soon then it may be worth taking advantage of current rates which are now close to 4 year highs for GBPAUD.
Sterling exchange rates come crashing down. 1.20 against the Euro now gone. Where will the pound now head. (Ben Amrany)
Sterling exchange rates have come crashing back down today by an average of 1% wiping away its recent gains against the EUR, CHF, CAD, AUD & USD.
Today was always going to be a volatile days trading with the Autumn budget, interest rate decisions in the UK and Europe and growth figures out of the US all happening within a few hours of each other. The Budget did not really do the pound much harm at the time of the speech but once the European Central Bank had their press conference the pound really started to weaken across the board. Rates against the Euro are at the lowest in over a week after the European Central Bank upgraded its growth forecasts and the head of the ECB appeared to be cautious about more easing all helping the Euro to rebound.
The stance and tone of the ECB’s comments have caused more optimism in the Euro zone and it may now be hard for the pound to claw back its losses back towards 1.20 or 1.21. This is a welcome relief for those of you that need to buy the pound and now may represent an attractive time to secure your funds. If you are selling the Euro to buy sterling feel free to contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk and I can explain the options available to you.
For those of you that are still looking at buying the Euro I have been stating to my clients that if you trade when the pound is at a fresh high this gives you the peace of mind that you have secured your funds at one of the best times. I still had many clients that held off hoping that the pound would continue to rise but the pound always has a habit of crashing when you feel it is only going one way. Unfortunately exchange rates never move in one direction and a reversal of the rates is inevitable at one time or another. You now have to judge how long it may take to rise again and if it will happen in the time frame you have. The uncertainty in what may occur with the pound is what tends to make the wiser clients secure their funds sooner rather than later. At the end of the day indecision normally costs you more than a bad decision which many clients will now be thinking.
Looking forward to next week there are more growth figures from Europe and a raft of production figures from the UK and a big report from the ECB out next Thursday. Last time the pound was over 1.20 last January within 3 weeks it was down at 1.15. I don’t think the same will happen but you never know what is around the corner with the pound. So lets hope a similar trend wont occur and if you want to have the peace of mind then forward buying may just be a wise decision.
If you have an up and coming transfer to buy the Euro and have been holding out for 1.20 or above and need to make your transfer in the near future don’t get caught out by a declining pound. There is the chance we may see a rebound again so it would be best to contact me and have things ready to move should this occur. You can contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk
If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk
Wrap that transfer up like a neat gift
GBPZAR 5 year high, GBPAUD and GBPCAD 4 year highs, GBPUSD at 2 1/2 year high and GBPEUR over 1.20…
Sterling is at truly exceptional levels against most currencies as the UK’s recovery rakes hold and the UK sets itself apart from other leading economies by appearing to be likely to be one of the first leading economies to be raising interest rates. Whilst the United States are debating when to stop QE, the UK have not done any QE for the last year. The ECB are looking at possibly negative interest rates and the Bank of Canada is no longer looking to tighten policy. Overnight we learnt that GDP in Australia was weaker than expected, again a sign of another leading economy weakening whilst the UK has been performing well.
With the often crazy Christmas period fast approaching and changes in banking days there is a lot to be said for wrapping up a transfer like a present. The recent spike on exchanges rates has been a great gift to you and now could be an excellent time to either buy your currency or lock into a forward contract to minimise any losses. You can then remove the stress of the transfer and focus on the more important things at this time of year!
If you have a pending transfer we offer a specialist service to assist you in securing the most from the market. For more information at no cost or obligation please do feel free to get in touch. I am a specialist currency broker and my job is to assist private clients and businesses in managing their exposure to the currency markets, ensuring payments are made quickly and safely at the very best rates.
Please feel free to contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call +44 1494 787 478 and ask to speak to me.
Important news for anyone buying or selling the pound – Why sterling will strengthen further
The current outlook for the pound is now very much positive with the pound posting some important gains against many different currencies. Of note is GBPCAD, GBPNZD, GBPAUD which are all posting very strong rates well above the the recent averages. With such strong moves in a short period of time it is highly likely there will be lots of profit taking which will pull things back down, this could be a very good opportunity for anyone buying sterling to enter the market.
Positive GDP this morning has cemented sterling’s position against most currencies and with central banks globally threatening looser policy, it is only really the Bank of England which appears to be on a track to tightening policy. This of course could be years away but with other banks looking at more accommodative measures the pound is standing out and it is likely will strengthen further.
The ECB are looking at possible negative deposit rates, the RBA is actively seeking a much weaker currency and the Fed is largely committed to continuing the QE programme until the economic conditions improve of which we have seen not much hope so far.
If you are buying or selling the pound an awareness of the latest trends and themes is key to securing the best rates. For more information on what is driving your rate and assistance with the very best rates of exchange please contact the author directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
Best levels for selling the pound this week. Next weeks GDP figures could be key to how the pound performs next week. (Ben Amrany)
What a week it has been for the pound. We witnessed some excellent gains for the pound against many of the majors. Some of the key highs were against the Australian Dollar trading at the best levels this year of over 1.76. Verses the Euro sterling spiked to a 10 month high trying to cement rates above 1.20. While we also saw excellent gains against the USD over 1.62, CAD 1.71 and NZD of 1.99.
The current highs represent excellent buying opportunities against many of these currencies. We have seen all to often how quickly when the pound spikes something comes out which throws a spanner in the works and we see losses over the next couple of weeks.
If you are looking at selling the pound and would like more information on how to achieve better rates than through the bank then please do feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk. I assist clients in selling any major currency to buy the pound too if this is what you require doing.
Next week is certainly due to be an interesting one. It all kicks off this morning for the UK with mortgage approvals out at 9.30. A healthy number could assist the pound in what is a fairly quiet day.
Over in the US they release their pending home sales figures and for AUD buyers or sellers the deputy of the RBA Philip Lowe is giving a speech. The RBA have been very vocal about weakening the currency so his comments will be scrutinized by the markets and big movements could occur one way or the other.
For Euro buyers and sellers there is not much happening data wise for the next couple of days. This does not mean the markets will be flat though so don’t miss trading at the best levels for 10 months now.
Tuesday is all about the US & New Zealand. At 3.00 pm consumer confidence figures will be released. This gives us an idea of the confidence that individuals have in economic activity. Tuesday evening New Zealand release the important trade balance figures. A measure of the difference between imports and exports. Should it be negative then a move towards 2.00 could be available on Wednesday morning.
Wednesday is by far the most significant day of the week for the pound and the UK economy. We release our GDP figures which is a measure of how our economy is growing. Recent figures of 0.8% for the last quarter have been impressive and show we are rapidly moving away from the long drawn out recession. Should the figures show an unexpected contraction a dip back to the 1.18’s may occur.
My recommendation would be to capitalise in the early part of the week if selling the pound as to achieve very attractive levels and not to take the risk on the markets. For more information on what is released in the latter part of the week check out this site on Wednesday.
If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk
Sterling continues to gain against the Euro, US Dollar & Aussie Dollar. Next week could be volatile so it may be wise to secure your funds before the middle of next week. (Ben Amrany)
The pound has had a very solid week with gains against the Euro, US Dollar, CAD, & AUD.
Sterling actually started off the week with losses after UK inflation showed a decline but then a Speech by Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney helped sterling recover its losses. We then saw unemployment in the UK continue to fall and this caused the markets to bring forward their anticipation of an interest rate hike from 2015 to late 2014 giving the pound a further boost.
US Dollar buyers and seller
Yesterday over in the US Federal Reserve chair nominee Janet Yellen gave her support for the much debated quantitative easing. This suggested that if she becomes chairperson tapering may not be on the cards straight away causing Dollar weakness and representing good buying opportunities. Sterling strengthened to highs today of 1.6130 against the USD. For more information on the USD or how to get the best rates feel free to email me at bma@currencies.co.uk
Euro Buyers and sellers
Sterling against the Euro has once again strengthened from a low this week of 1.1820 back up to 1.1950. The recent interest rate cut in Europe caused the Euro to significantly weaken sending GBP/EUR to a high of 1.2040. As soon as it breached 1.20 though it quickly weakened as the 1.20 barrier seems to be a very hard resistance level to get through and then most importantly stay above.
With the surprise cut in rates in the single currency area I would have expected to have seen a much bigger gain for the pound. It is a little concerning that this did not happen for the pound. It probably goes to show though that with hard times still ahead for Europe the pound will struggle due to our ties with the Euro zone. I would recommend that clients looking at buying the Euro capitalise while the market is above the yearly average of 1.17 as a dip can occur at any time.
With the Bank of England minutes being next weeks major key data release for the UK the tones from the Bank of England with how many members voted for a rate hike or QE rise will determine the movements for the rest of the week.
The BoE may not be keen that the pound has strengthened so much against the Euro and could easily go some way to look at weakening the pound with this release. I would still not expect the pound to fall below 1.18 though. With lots of key data from Germany out next week I feel that GBP/EUR will have a fairly volatile end to the week. If you are looking to capitalise on the gains my recommendation would be to look at trading before the Minutes are out on Wednesday morning. For more information relating to your options with the GBP/EUR feel free to email me at bma@currencies.co.uk and I will explain all the options available to you when buying or selling the Euro.
Australian Dollar buyers and sellers
The Australian Dollar has been on a roller coaster ride of late most notable against the UK pound. The pound has spiked back up to 1.7250 against the AUD this week. This is around a three year high and well above the average of 1.59 for the year.
The next resistance level for GBP/AUD being 1.73 with a push to 1.74. We could see this level breached over the next week or so when the RBA release their minutes from their last interest rate decision on Monday evening UK and Tuesday down under.
The RBA have recently been vocal about how their exchange rate has been hurting their exports and would like to see the AUD weaken further. So it will be interesting to see if any comments from the minutes go someway to weaken the rates further.
The Bank of England release their minutes from the last interest rate decision next Wednesday too so those looking at buying Aussie Dollars could see further gains early next week. With rates hovering around a 3 year high trading in the near future represents good buying opportunities and levels above 1.70 should be achievable. If we reach 1.7350/1.74 I think we will meet resistance and this should be taken advantage of.
If you require buying or selling any of the major currencies then I am here to assist you in achieving a better rate than high street banks. Savings can be up to 4% and the level of service is second to none giving you all the information needed to help you judge when is a good time to buy your currency.
If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk
US Unemployment this afternoon and effects on GBP
Just when we all thought the ECB was far too cautious to make a bold policy move, it cuts the base rate across the Eurozone by 0.25% to 0.25%. This has weakened the Euro pushing EURUSD down to 1.33 yesterday and GBPEUR up to 1.2045 at the high.
Pound sterling rates were improved on by this news as funds found their way to the pound keeping GBPUSD in familiar ranges. This afternoon is a very important release for the US with Non-Farm payroll employment data. It bears more significance following last month’s shutdown as this may have impacted on Employment. The likelihood would be a bad number equalling USD weakness. This could cause euro strength in the afternoon as dollars are moved to the Eurozone.
However as the last few releases show ‘likelihood’ does not always mean much. The majority expected the Fed to taper back in September – they didn’t. The majority expected the US budget impasse last month to be solved by the deadline – it wasn’t. Few really expected the ECB to cut rates yesterday – it was. Therefore it is not unreasonable to expect that the payroll report could be better than expected and cause some USD strength. This may lead to GBP strength too as it shows the shutdown last month was not as bad as expected. It was such sentiments (the shutdown not having such a bad effect on the UK) which helped sterling to climb this week on the services PMI.
Making predictions on currency is no easy task. But giving yourself an advantage by exploring all your options is fairly easy. all you need to do is write an email (preferably with a phone number) outlining your position and we can offer our opinion on everything to beware of. We cannot tell you what to do but can highlight the news and tell you what is driving your price. We offer a professional and friendly service on the markets plus much better rates than banks and other sources of currency.
For more information please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk
