Tag Archives: GBPEUR exchange rates

When should I buy? (Daniel Johnosn)

Sterling gained strength over most major currencies following a rise in GDP in the second quarter. GDP came in at 0.7% compared to Q1 at 0.4%. Out put is very close to the the levels seen just prior to credit crisis of 2008. The BOE meeting next week could show some change in voting patterns for a rate hike. However, it is not all good new as the strength of Sterling is hitting our Exports. The confederation of British Industry (CBI) has signaled the weakest outlook for exporters in four years. due to this it wouldn’t be wise to rise interest rates for at least six months.

I doubt we will we see any major volatility in GBP/EUR while the Greek debacle continues. If you have a currency requirement in short to medium term it would be advisable to move on a spike in your favor. I currently offer a free of charge rate alert service, don’t hesitate to drop me an e-mail or give me a call to let me know if you would like to notify you of market movements.

We do have some very large GBP/EUR trades going through this week which potentially we can tag new clients on to and achieve a very competitive rate.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me on dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

Strong GDP Figures surprise markets and boost Sterling (Joshua Privett)

Even though yesterday was a relatively quiet day for data releases, significant weakening for Sterling was recorded. Rounding off a general trend away from the fresh 8 year highs reached last week for GBP/EUR rates at 1.44, poor retail sales figures released in the UK economy caused rates to drop to the low 1.40’s. It was expected that due to the contraction recorded in the retail sector, normally a fantastic performer for the UK economy, that GDP figures will dissapoint markets further on the British economy. As a result, this lack of confidence in the Pound caused rates dip back below the magic 1.40 marker.

However, GDP figures came in higher than expected, surprising everyone, and causing all of the losses for the Pound on Monday to be reversed. Rates suddenly catapulted up to 1.41 this morning. But it is important to note that rates were moving in the opposite direction before this little psychological stunt in the markets. GDP figures also did exceed expectations at the start of the month, they simply did not come in lower than the 0.7% previously predicted.

Without strong data to change the current course of GBP/EUR rates following the agreekment, I fully expect rates to continue journeying downwards. Those looking to purchase Euros should call 01494 787 478 and ask for Joshua to receive a free quote on your transfer. Alternatively, email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss how to maximise the value of your Sterling while the market is moving against you.

Why the pound can only strengthen from here

When trying to determine the exchange rate forecast there are various indicators to consider which can help us to work out the ultimately impossible to answer question ‘what will happen next on exchange rates’. My favourite indicator to look at is the words and comments of the central bankers and their teams to see what kind of language they are adopting. The Bank of England today confirmed that they felt the time for an interest rate rise is moving forward and as such sterling is highly likely to strengthen in the future.

One of the main reasons the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold this month is the fears over Greece. That is not to say that removing Greece from the equation would have led to an interest rate rise but that it was a factor preventing most members from looking at the economic situation of the UK. With Greece seemingly dealt with now market attention has and will continue to look more at the economic data and see to what extent it corresponds to the Bank’s own language on raising interest rates.

Why do interest rates strengthen a currency?

Raising Interest rates by a central bank strengthens the currency concerned and the mere prospect of that event happening in the future will serve to increase the value of the currency concerned. When considering a large currency purchase and trying to understand which direction your exchange rate will take, working out what drives the exchange rate will be of key importance to understand what might happen.

Therefore if UK economic data keeps showing the UK economy is growing, creating jobs and people are spending money the Bank of England will be more likely to raise the base rate which should strengthen the pound.

The pound has strengthened and is currently enjoying multi-year highs against the Euro, Australian dollar, Rand, Canadian dollar, Kiwi dollar and the Swedish Kroner. If you need to buy the pound then you might wish to make some plans sooner rather than later. If you are business getting paid in Euros or an overseas property investor looking to repatriate funds and buy in the UK our services might really be up your street.

If you are considering a large volume currency purchase why not get in touch to see if we can offer some assistance with your exchange? Alongside friendly and knowledgeable customer service you can check your current exchange rate to see if you really are getting the best deal.

My name is Jonathan and I have been working as a currency specialist for over 5 years. I like to think I am approachable and can answer any questions you might have not just on the markets but also our services!

Please feel free to drop me an email on jmw@currencies.co.uk and I really do look forward to hearing from you :)

Bank of England minutes tomorrow and all eyes on GBP/AUD rates (Joshua privett)

Overnight the minutes released by the Reserve Bank of Australia show a mixed view of the current economic forecast for the Australian economy.

While they hinted that increased employment had ‘put a dent’ in the chances for another rate cut, this was balanced out by negative views on the current state of the world economy. As such the Australian Dollar is now lower once the minutes revealed developments in Greece and China would influence future rate decisions.

After such a morbid view, inflation data to be released tomorrow morning must be positive to stop a complete slide on Dollar value.

Today is a quiet day for data releases, so markets are looking to the release of Bank of England minutes and interest rate decisions.

Recently Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, suggested that interest rates may rise at the turn of the year. This means we could see a change in the voting tally for raising rates tomorrow. This could bolster Sterling, yet the alternative (no change from the 0 out of 9 who voted for a rate hike last month) will do the opposite. It will show that Carney’s comments may be more bluster than concrete policy supported by the rest of the board, which could lead to Sterling weakness.

Call into the trading floor on 01494 787 478 and ask for Joshua to discuss how to take advantage of a specific economic event. A number of tools are available to help you buy at the high, or buy before the rates fall back to far to prevent any losses. jjp@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Rates hit highs of 1.435 (Joshua Privett)

While Greece has agreed to the current terms of the bailout, we are still waiting for the treaty to be ratified by other European governments before it can be confirmed, which is why the rates are currently still climbing. People are nervous about Britain’s current objections towards providing loans, and many in Germany are still advocating that Greece temporarily leave the Euro zone until they recover. So the potential Grexit, and by association the Euro, are not out of the woods yet.

This is an issue that will continue over the weekend and into next week. There is potential for even greater rates to be made available before the inevitable correction once the bailout passes through the various levels of the European parliament.

To take advantage of a specific economic event, you can put a limit order into the market which will buy your currency when it hits a particular rate, even for a few moments. Or a stop loss order to buy your currency if it drops a cent following a solid ‘agreekment’ and you want to buy before it drops any more. Email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss how to implement this overnight, and make sure you buy at the absolute top of the markets. 01494 787 478

GBP/EUR hits 1.42! (Daniel Johnson)

The Greek Prime Minister,Alexis Tsipras is trying to push some final details with Greek ministers in order for the agreed deal with Greece’s creditors to come to fruition. Although there are a couple of stumbling blocks. With Greek banks still not open after nearly two weeks, the country is very close to breaking point. Not helping the matter is that the  Greek people have lost faith in Tsipras after he agreed terms he previously stood firmly against.

There could well be  a short term bail out in the next 24hrs. This should create some Euro strength. If your buying euros I would get it done while we sit as these record levels.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

Greek Banks have little Resources Left, A Deal is sure to be on the Cards (Daniel Johnson)

The  referendum “no” vote was meant to be used as a bargaining chip to be used against Greece’s creditors, however the strength of this bargaining chip is questionable. With Greece’s Finance Minister Varoufakis’s resignation a deal may be on the cards. The new Finance Minister Tsakalotos has a far more agreeable stance on coming to an agreement.

Greece’s banks are now down to less than €500m, emergency funds are needed sooner rather than later. A deal for a bail out could be coming very soon. If that is the case expect the Euro to strengthen over Sterling. If you have a Euro requirement it would be the safe option to get your trade done.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

1.43 on the markets! Two days to save the Euro!

GBPEUR has rocketed as Asian markets open and investors begin dumping the Euro in anticipation of the two most important days in the history of the Euro. What happens now will decide not just Greece’s fate but also the rest of the Eurozone. Sterling is benefitting rising against all currencies so far but to make a firm prediction on just what will happen is incredibly difficult.

There is a simple formula to follow here. As the uncertainty increases with no deal the Euro will weaken and the pound should rise. This will only be true up to a point where if Greece leaves the Euro the UK would suffer some financial losses. The USD will rise as it has done possibly significantly if Greece does leave. The commodity currencies like AUD, NZD and CAD are struggling with the uncertainty too!

If a deal is struck then the Euro should recover and sterling which had benefitted from safe haven funds, weaken. A deal is what I believe will happen because I don’t think the alternative is worth contmeplating! One thing is for sure the next couple of days are significant for anyone with a currency transfer to consider. If you wish to get the latest news and understand more about what is and will drive your exchange please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

We are here to provide information but also offer a service for international money transfers at the best exchange rates. If you wish to learn more and check your exchange rates please contact me and I hope you see your rate!

Jonathan

jmw@currencies.co.uk

UK Business hours 00 44 1494 787 478

What is around the corner?

What is just around the corner on exchange rates? Well it would appear that sterling is in line for further improvements as investors frustrations with the lack of progress with Greece and the inconsistency of US economic data persist. Don’t get me wrong the UK is hardly setting the world on fire and there is still the mammoth debt mountain to overcome, but at least the UK has control over its economic policies and the economy is growing. As so often is the case on exchange rates it is not a case of which is the best but which isn’t the worst! Below is a light summary on our most heavily traded and reported currencies, I hope you find the information useful. My name is Jonathan and I work as a specialist foreign exchange dealer assisting private individuals and business with their foreign exchange exposure. If you are buying or selling a foreign currency and wish for some useful insight and finding out if a better rate is possible please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

STERLING The pound has been performing well as economic data continues to show improvements in the Unemployment rate and growth in the all important service sector which comprises 75% of the UK economy and therefore UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product). With the UK election out of the way and a stable business friendly government in power the UK and the pound should continue to benefit from uncertainty elsewhere. The hallowed path back to raising interest rates is still rocky but recent Bank of England comments have suggested a rate hike as early as August. Sterling is up at multi year highs against most currencies so there are strong arguments to lock in these levels to remove the risk. If you need to sell or buy the pound and wish to learn of important events that will affect your exchange rate please call me on 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to Jonathan. Alternatively email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

EURO The Euro has come unstuck this year as years of inaction over Greek debt issues finally catch up. I believe a deal will be struck but the uncertainty is weighing heavily on investors confidence and the Euro will struggle to make too much of a comeback. Greece will remain in the Euro but we probably won’t know exactly if this ‘deal’ will go ahead until next week. The Euro will of course rise once the deal is agreed but all Greece’s creditors are doing is postponing the problems for another day. If you need to sell Euros I would suggest moving sooner to get into a more stable currency like sterling to avoid the risk of further losses. The next few days are going to be vital for the Euro so if you are looking to buy or sell Euros please contact me to discuss and be kept up to date with the latest news.

US DOLLAR US GDP has shown the US  is struggling and despite strong improvements in the US labour market the expectations the US would be raising interest rates in 2015 are looking ever more uncertain. Further improvements or deteriorations in the US economy will be the key determinant in whether or not we actually see a rate hike this year, the Federal Reserve have confirmed this. Don’t forget the US dollar reacts to global uncertainty, if investors are worried about what is happening in the future they will buy dollars to ‘hedge’ against the uncertainty. There is correlation between USD strength and increased Greek uncertainty. If you need to buy or sell the USD I think it more likely the the dollar will be weaker in the future, particularly against a rising pound.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR The Aussie is likely to strengthen in the near term as it has weakened significantly in recent months which will undoubtedly have helped boost Australian exports. China is performing well and I expect once a Greek deal is finalised the Australian dollar will rise. Longer term we might see the Aussie weaken if they cut their base interest rate but Glenn Stevens  Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently stated slack in the economy will not be picked up by cutting further their base rate. I would expect a further rate cut perhaps towards the end of the year but suggest buying Aussies sooner particularly since the rate is so good at over 2 AUD per GBP!

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR The Kiwi has weakened any may yet have further to fall with the currency experiencing a major sell off owing to lower demand for the currency following the rate cut to 3.25% earlier this month. With further easing on the cards by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand further falls seem likely. If you need to sell Kiwis I would suggest moving sooner as painful as it might be. Please contact me for more information on the timing of such transfers.

CANADIAN DOLLAR All the commodity currencies have been under pressure in the last few weeks, the CAD is no exception. On balance further CAD weakness seems probable as economic activity of their main trading partner the US slows and we also see Oil prices much lower in 2015 than previous years.

SOUTH AFRICAN RAND The Rand has weakened significantly as commodities suffer and political uncertainty continues to put pressure on the South African currency. Unfortunately any path back to strength for the Rand will be shortlived and if buying or selling this volatile currency I suggest making plans in advance.

What next? The pound is likely to rise further against most currencies as the scenarios above play out. Unfortunately there are never any guarantees on exchange rates and the only way to really know your price is to buy. The timing of when to do that is critical however and arming yourself with information is the best way to make an informed decision.

My name is Jonathan and as well as writing the blogs, have been quoted in national newspapers and helped thousands of clients with their foreign exchange payments. Whether moving overseas and making a one off payment or moving back to the UK making plans with your foreign exchange payments is key to getting the most for your money and making your life less stressful.

I am very confident I can offer some expertise and information to make your life easier plus save you some money in the process. For further information please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

The Greece Situation will be a major influence on any GBP/EUR Trade (Daniel Johnson)

Greece’s woes continue, there is still no sign of any agreement being reached. I do feel eventually there will be a repayment deal put in place, as there is simply too much to lose on both sides. If Greece were to default their ability to borrow money in the future would be extremely difficult, the interest would be extortionate and the last thing the Eurozone need is for the Greek’s to set a precedent and exit the Eurozone which others may consider following. If Greece or Spain were to leave it would be catastrophic for confidence in the Euro.

Current trading levels are exceptional for Euro buyers, when rates are close to some of the highest buying levels of the last 8 years hanging on for an extra buck could prove costly.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

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