Tag Archives: GBPEUR exchange rates
Will sterling keep up this current trajectory?
Tomorrow is UK Retail Sales and Friday is the latest UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data. Both of these releases could easily spark volatility in the market underlining the importance of keeping up to date with the market. In the last few weeks sterling exchange rates have crept up notably against the Euro but we are at multi year highs against pretty much everything! Can sterling keep on this trajectory?
Well early indications seem to think so with recent poor borrowing economic data being ignored in anticipation of an interest rate at hike at some point in the future. As is so often the case with exchange rate it isn’t just which currency is the best, it is that others are very unpopular! Take the Euro for example, we may still see some QE (Quantitative Easing) in the future. This form of ‘printing money’ is very bad for the currency as by increasing the money supply it effectively dilutes the strength of the currency. The UK used QE many years ago and this is one of the reasons the pound dipped to almost parity with the Euro, imagine the detrimental effect QE in the Eurozone would have on GBPEUR rates!
If you have any need to buy large volumes of foreign exchange getting the best exchange rate is central to making the most of your money. The authors of this blog and I are extremely confident we can undercut other sources like banks and other currency brokers on exchange rates, plus also offer practical assistance in the timing and management of your payments. For a quick rundown of your situation and a comparison why not make contact? We can then have a quick chat at no cost or obligation and you can decide for yourself what is better! After all if you were entirely happy with your current situation you probably wouldn’t have read this far!
Jonathan Watson, jmw@currencies.co.uk
How much higher can sterling go? Important upcoming events for the pound!
Looking ahead is always fraught with difficulties but sometimes it is easier when you know a little more than the average. Just now sterling is at 1.2613 on GBPEUR and 1.7160 on GBPUSD. Other exchange rates are also at multi year highs giving some well deserved relief for anyone transferring money abroad in recent years! I was helping some clients buying property in Europe at 1.10 a few years ago and I remember businesses buying the USD cheering at being able to get 1.50!
Tomorrow we have a very important release for the UK with the latest labour market statistics including the all important Unemployment rate. With Inflation having unexpectedly risen changes in Average earnings will attract slightly more attention, the prospects for GBP strength on the whole seem high.
Thursday is the all important CPI (Consumer Price Index) Inflation data for the Eurozone which will outline just how justified recent ECB (European Central Bank) actions have been in attempting to quell falling inflation or ‘disinflation’. Sterling may therefore make some further gains against a battered Euro.
Priced In? – Markets have probably been pricing in the prospect of a) good UK data and b) bad Eurozone data so anything that comes out worse than expected for the UK and better than expected for the Eurozone could trigger sharp corrections. Movements of up to one cent should not be ruled out depending on just what happens. I would personally be shooting for better rates to buy a foreign currency towards the end of the week (from tomorrow) in anticipation of some positive UK Unemployment data cementing and even lifting current levels.
Should you have further to hold on you can wait until next Friday when we get the first estimate of UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the UK for Q2. I would personally not be surprised to see the rates tick higher on this release although arguably the good news is already in the market. As with the two releases above for me the risk is to the downside, markets expect positive numbers for the UK. Anything to the contrary could trigger sterling losses.
For more information on how to approach your transaction plus an award winning exchange rate when you do, please speak to me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.
Sterling hits the big time!
Sterling has hit the big time this year as it shakes off the worst of the last few years and sets sights on the future. The UK’s economic position has improved massively of late and is arguably now one of the worlds leading economies again. Especially when compared to other leading economies and currencies like for example the US and Euro.
There are risks up ahead of course, notably the Scottish Referendum and any further deterioration in the Eurozone economy. On balance we would have to expect sterling to remain well supported and should it manage to avoid the more obvious risks ahead of next year, we could see further strength in the new year as it becomes more apparent the UK’s recovery is underway and the prospect of raising interest rates looms.
Should you have any currency transfers please don’t hesitate to contact us for a forecast on just where the rates could be once your transaction is settled. Getting the best rates through the multiple sources we trade through, we are very well placed to help you maximise any transfers.
For more information please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk
How will the Euro move after the ECB Interest Rate Decision? (Tom Holian)
This week we have seen a small fall for GBPEUR exchange rates following some very good house price data but also weak construction figures according to the Purchasing Manager’s Index out yesterday.
According to Nationwide UK house prices have reportedly moved a record high moving higher than the pre-credit crunch peak of 2007. However, with construction low this caused the Pound to fall against the single currency. It has been suggested that the Bank of England will be the first major central bank to look at raising interest rates but I think that will still be sometime away as we have an election next year.
Eurozone Inflation fell in May and and also came in lower than expected at just 0.5%. This is likely to put further pressure on the Euro as inflation is now at its lowest level since 2009. However, the single currency did strengthen during yesterday’s trading session owing to some better unemployment figures which showed a fall to 11.7%.
The news about the jobs market is good but I still think the ECB will have to cut interest rates at tomorrow’s meeting in an attempt to stop inflation falling further. It could be argued that with GBPEUR rates having hit a 16 month high last week that they were fueled by the speculation that the ECB will cut rates tomorrow so even if some change happens at the meeting it may not move the currency rates as much as expected.
EU GDP figures are due out at 10am this morning and expectation is for 0.2% so anything lower could weaken the Euro. The markets could be waiting to see what happens tomorrow but I do also think this morning’s release will affect the exchange rates today.
If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk
Will the ECB Cut Rates this Week? (Tom Holian)
GBPEUR exchange rates hit their highest level not seen since January 2013 last Tuesday but have since dropped off from their recent highs following what I would suspect as short term profit-taking.
With inflation worryingly low in the Eurozone and falling for the past few months the ECB are getting more nervous about what to do to combat the fall. I think they are likely to use some form of monetary policy change on Thursday which could either mean a cut in interest rates or the introduction of Quantitative Easing.
The problem with both changes means that if either happens we are likely to see Euro weakness. However, the uncertainty means that if there is no change we could see a bit of Euro strength.
There are two sides to the argument of whether QE could harm the Euro as if this happens it could be perceived as a positive move by the ECB to do something about the ailing economy but it could also be viewed as if they have little choice.
It was also announced earlier that Spain will look at their own stimulus package to help the struggling Spanish economy. Spanish unemployment is currently at 26% and things are not getting better. According to Prime Minister Rajoy ‘the plan will include investments totalling 6.3bn euros, of which 2.67bn will come from the private sector and 3.63bn from the public sector.’
With things over the next few days rather unsettled I think we could see some Sterling strength early in the week against the Euro.
German inflation data is due at lunchtime tomorrow and if things are low I think the ECB will definitely act on Thursday so expect Sterling strength if the figures are low tomorrow.
If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk
Busy day for sterling
Today the pound has suffered slightly as Average Earnings figures amongst others showed the Unemployment situation in the UK isn’t quite as buoyant as maybe some investors had hoped. This is good news for anyone who needs to buy the pound as the currency outlook would appear to favour GBP strength, if therefore you can sneak in with a transaction on this spike it is good news.
If you have any transactions to consider selling sterling we could see moves higher soon so do make contact to be kept up to date. For those looking to buy sterling making plans sooner really would appear to be the wisest move since as the economic conditions in the UK improve we should see the pound strengthen.
If you have any transactions to consider please let us know.
