Tag Archives: GBPEUR exchange rates

Pound loses value with profit warnings from UK companies (Joshua Privett)

The Pound took a sudden and severe hit which continued as the morning wore on, as UK companies were already showing concerning results since the announcement of the Brexit.

Profit warnings came out from the likes of Shell, Rolls-Royce, BAT and the UK stock market took quite a serious hit as a result. With the UK’s dependence on its financial services this correlated into lower confidence in the Pound, seeing a sharp sting for anyone considering buying a foreign currency.

Even with higher profits for Lloyds the lowered confidence in the UK was apparent with their announcement today that they would be cutting a 3000 more jobs and 200 more branches on top of their previous commitment to cut 9000 jobs and another 200 branch closures.

Whilst some companies performed well, the overall tone was negative, as the first look at concrete performance figures since the announcement of the Brexit shows the UK economy is struggling. A survey was released last Friday showing business confidence down to similar levels seen during the financial crisis. But concrete figures such as what was seen today are inscrutable and is why we saw a more sustained fall on the likes of buying Euro and Dollar rates than last week.

Euro buyers however, may see a turnaround in the short-term before the more voluminous data sets from last month are released during the first few weeks of August.

Late on Friday the Eurozone will be releasing the results of their stress tests on European Banks. Normally this is not a big market mover but some of our regular readers will note the particular attention paid to Italian Banks since the beginning of the month.

They have alluded to their rapidly deteriorating debt crisis, with now 1 in 6 loans deemed ‘junk’. These stress tests, like the concrete figures for the UK economy today, will likely put an exact figure in front of markets to understand the sheer scale of the current problem.

With the spotlight back on the Euro we may see rates reach more attractive levels late on Friday and by early Monday. There is a reason why the news is being released so late – to mitigate market reaction.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar currency requirement, whether in the short or long-term should contact me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for you transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

In this current market there are many potential variables and ‘forks in the road’ to be wary of, and there are a number of options in using a currency exchange specialist to minimise the exposure of your transfer to these potentially violent currency movements.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for anyone buying a foreign currency in the future, and are worried where rates may journey to in the meantime. 01494 787 478

 

How much lower could the pound fall?

Sterling is much weaker following the Brexit, at present around 10% versus both the Euro and US dollar. At times it has been around 13% lower than the pre-Brexit highs. So just what is next and could the pound fall lower? We will very soon have an answer and any clients considering buying or selling the pound should not be feeling too complacent at the moment. Next week is the Bank of England Interest Rate decision where there is a very high chance the Bank of England will look to cut interest rates or even discuss a new Quantitative Easing program. The last time the BoE launched a QE program and had cut interest rates GBPEUR exchange rates dropped to almost parity at 1.02!

I am not suggesting that this is the kind of fall we will see next week but i am suggesting the potential for events next week to cause some big swings from the status quo. The outlook for the pound is one of great uncertainty and despite there being some good news around, we haven’t yet even begun to fully understand what the Brexit vote has done to the economy. It will take many months before we know exactly what is happening but the initial flash readings of business sentiment have so far not suggested it is good news all over.

Brexit is not in itself a bad thing and I am not taking a view on the Brexit here. What I am doing is highlighting the impact on the economy, financial markets and business need certainty to conduct their operations and at the moment it is something we are lacking. If you are considering a currency transfer involving buying or selling the pound we are not here to just provide information but can also help with the planning and execution of any transactions you will need to make. If you need to transfer more than £10,000 worth of currency (including bringing large volumes back to the UK or to buy pounds with) I am very sure we can get you a better deal than your bank or current provider.

We aim to proactively manage our client requirements so we don’t just help them save money on the exchange rate by beating the competition, we also offer strategy on the best times to consider entering the market. If you have a transfer to consider please call me Jonathan on 01494 787 478 or get in touch via email on jmw@currencies.co.uk and I am sure I can offer some useful information and a rate which will save you money.

Will the Pound get any stronger against the Euro and Dollars? (Joshua Privett)

The short answer is that if the Pound does strengthen against the Euro and the various Dollars available for purchase, it will most likely be before August.

Today the Pound took a heavy hit with some frankly morbid news about post-Brexit business conditions in the UK. Economic activity in the UK has deteriorated to a 7 year low in the weeks which have followed a Brexit vote. This was also the largest fall in a single month on record.

Manufacturing and service sectors saw a serious decline in output and orders. The only other occurrences when negative economic outlook was this poor was during the global financial crisis, the dot com bubble burst, and the Asian financial crisis.

Yet luckily for Euro and Dollar buyers the fall was contained to about 1%. Much of the current news for the UK is priced into the current value of the Pound so further negative news isn’t having as dramatic an effect as three weeks ago.

However, these individual data releases can add up, and eventually weight heavily on the value of any currency.

The first two weeks of each month sees the release of economic performance figures from the previous month, and understandably is where you can get some of the heaviest currency movement for the month. The data released today was allowed to be seen early as this was a preliminary survey, rather than the exact figures to be released next month.

This is why I mentioned the beginning of August as a red-flag for Euro and Dollar buyers as the Pound will likely be facing some heavy criticism during this period.

In the meantime, Euro buyers may see some respite with the release of stress test results on European Banks. With the recent news of Italian Banks facing a debt crisis, these results may paint a picture of instability and therefore create opportunity before August.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a currency requirement should contact me jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro or Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place to avoid the downside risk in August affecting your transfer. As such a brief discussion could save you thousands on your currency exchange.

Euro and Dollar sellers, who have some time to play with, should also reach out to discuss how to approach the next few weeks in order to make sure any peaks with emerge within the time frame you have to complete your transfer are maximized.

BOE Interest Rate Decision and QE could Weaken the Pound (Daniel Charles Johnson)

Sterling Overview

With the appointment of Theresa May as new Prime Minister and a firm cabinet now in place. I would expect a gradual rally for Sterling against most major currencies. There is however the Bank of England (BOE) interest rate decision on 4th August. There is a high chance of a rate cut from the already record low of 0.5% to 0.25%. This is common knowledge so I would not expect a massive drop in the Pound’s value as it may well be factored into the market. What could damage Sterling is if Mark Carney the governor of the BOE decides to implement Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. He has £150bn at his disposal so if there is an announcement expect the Pound to fall in value. If you have to move short to medium time it may be wise to move before this date.

GBP/AUD

If you are an Aussie Dollar seller it is difficult to justify hanging on until 4th August. There is a rate decision due down under on the 2nd August and there is the chance of a cut which will weaken the Aussie. With current levels the best since September 2014 I would be looking to take advantage of current levels. To procrastinate could prove costly.

If you are an Aussie buyer potentially you could wait for the decision on 2nd August to see if there is a cut and GBP/AUD moves in your favour and then trade after the announcement on 2nd or 3rd avoiding a potential fall on 4th August.

GBP/EUR

Mario Draghi, the Head of the European Central Bank today announced the possibility of a QE increase later in the year. This has seen GBP/EUR to move above 1.20. If you are a Euro buyer I would be looking to move before the 4th August, the highest we have been since the EU referendum is 1.21 so 1.20 doesn’t look like a bad time to bite the bullet.

Euro Sellers wait until after the interest rate decision and then get your trade done. Following Draghi’s comments the Euro is in a precarious position, especially when you throw the Greece and Italy situation into the mix.

GBP/USD

USD buyers, trade before the 4th August. Sellers wait until the decision on the 4th then trade. You are currently selling at the best levels since 1985.  It is a no brainer.

If you have a currency requirement it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is key during such a volatile  times, If you have a veteran broker on board he can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would like me to help with your trade I will be happy to help. Let me know the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the UK and as such I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. You would be looking at around a 4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Will the pound keep rising? GBPEUR and GBPUSD Forecast

The answer to this question is probably not. That is because whilst we have just lately had some good news to help sterling find a boost, there are still a number of challenges ahead which sterling will need to overcome in order to remain at this better rates. some of you might laugh at me calling any sterling exchange rate as better but we are much better on most currency pairs than the lows seen only a couple of weeks ago. GBPEUR is now back over 1.20 and GBPUSD has recently hit 1.34. The recent sterling strength is down to two key factors, the appointment of Theresa May and also the lack of any interest rate cut by the Bank of England last week. Theresa May has made clear any Brexit negotiations or invoking of Article 50 are long term so therefore despite the recent bounce for the pound I think economic rather political factors will now play a much greater role on sterling exchange rates. The prospect of an interest rate cut and any QE from the Bank of England (which are predicted for as early as August 4th) could be the big drag between now and Christmas. To learn more on the implication of this on your currency exchange please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR 

If this happens then the pound could easily retest the lows of 1.15 seen at the beginning of July, I would suggest a new bottom could easily be reached in the lower teens or perhaps 1.11-1.12 but for this to happen there would need to be some very bad economic data and recession for the UK. This lower view was the consensus only last week but financial markets and sterling have benefitted from a relief rally as we avoid the ‘worst case’ scenarios and against their own indications the Bank adopts a more cautious tone.

If the Bank of England surprises markets and fails to adopt any stimulus measures in August and September we could easily see sterling rise higher over 1.20 settling in the lower 1.20’s. There are other factors keeping the Euro weaker including the Italian banking issue plus uncertainty over Greek debt repayments. The Euro is still not performing too well struggling against most currencies except of course the pound. 1.25 seems very distant but couldn’t be ruled out should investor concerns over the Euro flare up again and the pound finds further favour.

GBPUSD

As with GBPUSD any QE or interest rate cut by the Bank of England is the more immediate focus and this would send sterling down to retest the 1.27 level seen two weeks ago. Depending on the amount of QE, extent of interest rate cuts or any worse economic news I wouldn’t be wholly surprised to rule out 1.24-1.25. Some forecasters have GBPUSD at 1.20 by the year end but I don’t think that is likely. Rates of 1.25 ish were on most forecasters predictions but the change of tone from Theresa May’s appointment and the lack of cuts so far has helped the pound.

GBPUSD could easily rise to 1.35 territory if the Bank of England fail to act once again and with the US Election in November investors will soon start to begin pricing in the prospect of a Donald Trump Presidency. Such uncertainty combined with a stable pound could possibly see 1.40 again but as with GBPEUR hitting 1.25, it seems very distant.

If you have a currency exchange buying the pound, Euros or dollars then it makes sense to explore all of your options. Every situation is unique and we offer a free information service to help you plan and manage your exposure to the currency markets. I Jonathan Watson work as Associate Director and Chief Analyst for one of the UK’s top currency brokerages and would be very interested to hear from you and offer some assistance with any bank to bank transfers in and out of the UK for business or personal clients from £10,000 to the multi millions.

For more information please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk, I am very confident I can give some useful insight and if you need it a very sharp exchange rate that will save you money over the banks and typical currency broker exchange rates. Any information is completely free, please email me and I will get back in touch immediateley.

 

Buying Euro and Dollar rates finish the week under pressure (Joshua Privett)

After a day of relative stability for buying Euro and Dollar rates before the close of play on Friday, they were sudden falls on the final part of the afternoon which created a concerning picture for some.

The devestating and tragic attacks in Nice understandably hit buying Euro rates the heaviest, with a full Cent drop in the value of the Euro early Friday morning until it was confirmed that the threat had been contained and the terrorist killed.

In total the Pound has had a net gain of around 3% for buying Euro and Dollar rates since the beginning of last week. The stability came from the sudden announcement of a new Prime Minister and Government to deal with the Brexit and the current shocks from the referendum reverberating through the economy.

Yet, with no new news, the Pound still struggled late Friday afternoon. This is down to speculative trading more than anything else.

On Friday afternoons you tend to see the phenomenon of profit-taking on currency markets. Speculators at high street institutions who move hundreds of millions each day are the true market movers, and many wish to consolidate their profits to end the week.

Whilst the Pound has recovered somewhat, it is only a week since the heavy slides of last week were last recorded. The Dollar seems to still be the currency of choice which is why we saw its value saw as the week ended, with serious capital flowing into the USD.

Yet this is not necessarily the end to the Pound’s strengthening trend. Junior Ministers were appointed in the UK over the weekend. The likes of Australia have called immediately for trade deals with the UK, the positive news to counteract the recent negative tirade hasn’t ended.

USD and Euro sellers are still seeing some fantastic opportunities, and may be wise to move sooner rather than later to secure those gains.

I can provide a live, competive quote for your exchange, and can describe the process of bringing funds back to the UK at more competitive rates than those offered by the high street banking world.

Simply email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk, and I can also assist Euro and Dollar buyers to create a strategy for your transfer to maximise your currency return.

Sterling gains modestly for a second day, but will next weeks interest rate decision push the Pound down to new lows? (Joseph Wright)

It’s now a full second week since the UK’s ‘Brexit’ vote shocked the world, particularly the financial world, and GBP exchange rates are struggling to rebound although looking at GBP exchange rates at the time of writing, we are seeing very modest gains for the Pound, offering Pound sellers some rest-bite after seeing the value of the currency drop on almost a daily basis for 2 weeks.

Sterling appears to be surrounded by uncertainty as people struggle to define whether the current levels are favourable or not when we consider the bigger picture, and whilst the Pound has dropped down to it’s lowest levels against the US Dollar since 1985, into the late 1.20’s, some analysts are expecting Sterling to continue to decline from it’s current levels, meaning that although the Pound has lost so much value we may be looking at some of the most attractive levels available for Sterling sellers between now and the end of the year (or next year if some analysts predictions are correct).

I think anyone with a GBP/EUR currency exchange to make imminently or in future should be aware of some of the predictions of major analysts, in order to gain a realistic price target moving forward.

JP Morgan’s FX strategist John Normand has outlined a price target of 1.1236 for GBP/EUR by March 2017, which is a further 5 cents below the current level of 1.1725.

Should analysts such as Mr Normand be correct, it may be an idea for anyone looking to convert Sterling into Euros to consider making that conversion sooner as opposed to later as there’s a chance the rate could become less favourable, and for those looking to convert GBP into other currencies, using the GBP/EUR exchange rate as a benchmark wouldn’t be a bad idea as if the Pound is predicted to fall against the Euro, and the fallout from the ‘Brexit’ is affecting the Euro negatively as well, it may be that other major currencies perform even better than the Euro when compared with the Pound.

Those with an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound may wish to get in contact with me (Joe) regarding strategies and how best to time the trade, or trades should you be open to the approach of a staggered entry. Our specialist currency exchange brokerage doesn’t offer financial advice but we do assist our clients with the timing of their trades based on price targets and historical data such as annual and daily highs and lows.

If you would like to discuss your currency exchange with me, and would like to consider taking advantage of award winning exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading regulated currency brokerages, feel free to email me directly ideally with a telephone number onjxw@currencies.co.uk with an outline of your requirement. You can also call me directly on 01494 787 478, just ask one of the reception team for Joe.

 

Pound sterling exchange rates may well get much worse!

The pound has sunk to fresh lows this week in response to uncertainty over the Brexit impact and fears the Bank of England will embark on fresh Interest Rate cuts and even Quantitative Easing in the coming weeks and months. The potential for the pound to slip by a further 4-5% should not be underestimated. I would be very surprised to hear if anyone would be calling the recent lows we have reached a bottom, particularly if we see the movements the markets have been expecting.

The biggest problem in the last few years is low interest rates globally, could the Bank of England be in to cause some shock and awe on financial markets. These events should not be personal but with Mark Carney being singled out by the Leave camp for being too noisy about the potential downsides for the UK economy, he might surely now have a bit of an axe to grind. Of course it would be crazy to suggest the Governor of the Bank of England would act without firm reasons but he must have been annoyed at the suggestions he was interfering with the Referendum.

If you have a transfer to consider making some firm plans in advance is vital in this market. Sterling slipped down to almost parity with the Euro when the Bank of England last cut interest rates. If you need to buy or sell pounds it is vital you understand the full implications of what is happening at present. For more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Sterling has in my opinion got further to fall so please speak to me about getting some helpful information and an exchange rate I am sure will save you money.

Buying Euro and Dollar rates hit fresh lows (Joshua Privett)

Unfortunately for anyone considering purchasing a foreign currency, be it buying Euros or buying Dollars, the Pound had a further tumble on financial markets across the trading day today, and is continuing as I type this article.

The main cause behind GBP/USD reaching new 31 year lows, breaching into the 1.29’s briefly, and GBP/EUR fell even lower into the rates available in 2013 was a dramatic Q and A session with Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, following the UK’s financial stability report.

In this Carney detailed a serious swing away from traditional policy of trying to control bank lending in the wake of the financial crisis, and instead lifted the ceiling on how they were operating. Essentially he’s trying to keep the economy growing by getting the banks to lend more.

Markets reacted poorly that only a week and a half after a Brexit result the Bank is already resorting to such policies, and it makes the Bank of England interest rate decision next Thursday seem like a daunting day.

Carney has already hinted that he would use all the tools available to him to protect the UK economy, which in the Central Banking world normally translates into Quantitative Easing and interest rate cuts.

This is what the Eurozone were doing last year when they were struggling heavily, and regular readers will remember just how much such policies affected the value of the Euro. At least in short-term, this rout on Euro and Dollar buying rates seems set to continue.

Following this, exchange rates will purely depend on whether a new Conservative Prime Minister can provide a firm timeline on when the UK economy will be implementing the formalities to leave the EU, allowing markets to know the parameters they can operate within. With stability, value can be expected to return to the Pound.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement in the short or medium term should contact me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options open to you to maximise your rate of exchange in the current market and limit your exposure to any further falls.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, so a brief discussion could save you thousands surrounding your transfer. These current buying levels can also be fixed in place for any upcoming transfers to avoid having to accept what the rate may be on that day.

Euro and Dollar sellers can also get in contact to discuss how to ride these expected movements in your favour safely, and to make sure any improvements in your favour are not missed.

 

How far can the pound fall?

The pound has actually made some very small gains today but the outlook remains grim in my opinion. Despite the markets bouncing off the bottom today I do not think there is going to be a huge amount to be cheerful about and the rally of this morning quickly halted. The UK has no Prime Minister, the EU say there will be no special deal for the UK and business confidence and investment is down. There is a harsh choice for the next PM will it be abandoning free movement of people or retaining access to the single markets. According to the EU we cannot have both! If you are considering a currency exchange (£10,000 over only bank to bank exchanges please) please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to keep up with the latest news on how the pound is performing.

How much lower will GBPUSD drop?

The problem on this pair is the US Election is not far away which is bound to lead to uncertainty on the exchange rate. The prospect of a Trump Presidency has in my mind not been properly factored into the dollar. The Brexit vote also makes a US Interest rate hike less likely which I feel is not being reflected on the pair. I expect this rate to trade between 1.30 – 1.40 until August before moving back to 1.40-1.50 August to September. From there the picture is less clear but a move back above 1.50 could not be ruled out. If you have any USD transfers to consider the USD is almost at a 30 year high against the pound. To understand the latest movements please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPEUR hit 1.25?

For Euro buyers this is the question I am being asked most. Well I think Greek concerns and worries may resurface in the next few months and a top of 1.25 is possible, the negative impact of Brexit is also hurting the Euro. But I think sterling will be the main loser and would call lows in the 1.10-1.15 range up to September. From there much will depend on how Brexit negotiations but I think the pound will remain weak until we have certainty. If you have any Euro transfers on amounts above £10,000 (eg property sale of business transfer) please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information on securing the best GBPEUR and EURGBP exchange rates.

Brexit may well not prove to be too bad in the long run but it is clear to me the impact on sterling exchange rates still has much further to run, we still know very little about what to expect next. Any signs of an interest rate cut or further Quantitative Easing could easily send the pound lower and I would be most worried about this prospect towards the end of this year or early next.

Sterling is at multi year lows against GBPAUD, GBPCAD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF and GBPZAR..  Make sure you don’t miss out..

  This aware winning blog has enabled tens of thousands of people globally to save money on their currency exchanges through helpful, friendly knowledgeable information from experienced currency brokers. As one of the Chief contributors here I would be delighted to hear from any of you wish for information at this important historic time for the pounds. An email will only take you a minute and the savings on offer could be thousands, what have you to lose. If you have a currency exchange to consider and would like to learn the latest exchange rate forecast please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.