Tag Archives: GBPEUR exchange rates

GBPEUR soars!

GBPEUR has been over 1.36 representing some excellent opportunities to buy Euros not seen for 7 years. If you need to buy or sell the pound taking stock of current levels could be the best way to maximise your deal. The outlook for the currency markets is rather uncertain with the Greek news and further uncertainty up ahead.

If you need to buy or sell the pound making plans is always sensible. Leaving everything until the last minute is not generally a very good option as you never know what will happen! For more information please contact me Jonathan on jmw@curencies.co.uk

Greece Deal Agreed and Impact on Euro Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR exchange rates have been trading close to 7 year highs recently over the uncertainty of the Greece bailout deal.

For the last couple of weeks the Euro has weakened against Sterling providing some excellent opportunities to buy Euros.

On Friday the UK posted its worst monthly fall for Retail Sales since records began in 1997 and although Sterling dropped against the single currency the fall was not as much as it could have been.

It appears as though the Greek issue has dominated the currency movements and this weekend it has been announced that Greece has come to an arrangement with the Eurozone.

The deal is that Greece will have another 4 months to organise the refinancing of the current package.

The deal will be reviewed on Monday and unless it does not get fully approved think we could see a very quick fall for GBPEUR exchange rates.

German GDP data is due on Tuesday as well as Eurozone inflation data. If the news is positive we could see rates for Sterling Euro continue to fall.

ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak on Wednesday and clearly the topic of Greece will be top of the agenda. My expectation for this week is to see Sterling fall against the Euro.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Are you selling a foreign currency to buy the pound? Making plans now could be a wise move…

Sterling has spiked against its peers as UK data shows improvements in the various sectors of the economy, notably the Manufacturing Industry and the Services Sector. Unless you are buying USD with the pound, 2015 has been pretty much plain sailing for anyone buying a foreign currency with the pound. What I wish to focus on are the numbers of clients buying the pound currently. Tomorrow and next week could be some very good opportunities to buy the pound as the Bank of England release some important information. Sterling looks set to rise over the longer term so making some plans soon is probably wise!

EUR to GBP – 2015 has been a rough ride for anyone selling a property or getting paid in the Eurozone. Quantitative Easing and the Greek election have caused the Euro to sink to a 7 year low against the pound and the forecast for Euro sellers is not very rosy. I would be seeking to trade on any dips in your favour. The General Election later in the year may help but in my opinion holding on for so long is a risky move. To learn more about the process of moving funds out of the Eurozone at the best exchange rates please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

AUD to GBP – The Aussie has weakened to multi year lows against sterling too, principally on the back of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) decision to cut interest rates to stimulate growth. Falling commodity prices have caused the Australian dollar to plummet and we are only a couple of cents off the historic 1 GBP for 2 AUD being reached. With the global economy slowing it would seem reasonable to expect further losses for the AUD as the RBA act to keep the Australian economy growing.

Even if you are holding on expecting rates to majorly improve for buying the pound depending on the currency you are holding it is probably sensible to make some firm plans now. We offer a specialist service to move money internationally at the very best exchange rates. Assisting in the planning and execution of said transfers we have directly helped over 4000 clients to make an informed decision about when to execute their exchange plus countless others who read the site. If you are a regular reader and wish to learn more please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Greek Issues dominate Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR exchange rates have drifted higher again this morning as the Greek issue continues to dominate the currency markets.

Germany has stated that it will not offer more money to Greece unless the conditions of the bailout are adhered to which is adding to the uncertainty across the Eurozone.

EC President Juncker has warned the Greeks that they will  not bow to pressure from them which has caused further instability.

Ultimately the Greek issue will get resolved and to me it is only a matter of time until we see some positive reports and then we’ll see the Euro strengthen quite quickly so it may be worth taking advantage of these 7 year highs to buy Euros at the moment.

The Quarterly Inflation Report is now due out on Thursday and with inflation falling globally I think the report could be taken as slightly negative for the Pound.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Have GBPEUR Rates hit their Peak? (Tom Holian)

On Wednesday this week we saw the highest level for GBPEUR exchange rates since February 2008 as the currency markets continued to digest the news from the QE performed by the European Central Bank and the conclusion of the Greek elections.

Sterling saw huge gains during January but one real problem for those needing to buy Euros is when to make the decision to make a currency transfer.

As Sterling has been riding high for a few weeks one problem for the British economy is that if the Pound remains as high as it has this month it ultimately starts to affect the price of British exports making them less competitive particular for European consumers which ends up having a detrimental affect on UK GDP.

The Bank of England minutes out recently confirmed that no members would like a rate change which suggests to me that the UK will keep interest rates on hold until at least next year.

If you would like to take advantage of current levels and have a currency transfer to make then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Sterling very high against the Euro (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR exchange rates have ended the week strongly after a mixed week on the currency markets.

UK services data which was released on Wednesday gave Sterling a push towards 1.27 and alongside the positive announcements made in the Autumn Statement this helped the Pound gain against the single currency.

However, during the ECB press conference which came on Thursday afternoon Sterling fell by almost 1% against the Euro. ECB president Mario Draghi suggested that the central bank are putting steps in place to change monetary policy soon. This could take place in the first quarter of 2015.

This helped to give strength to the Euro as stability helps to strengthen the currency involved. However, the gains were short term as on Friday Sterling went back to almost 1.27 on the Interbank level.

Tomorrow sees the release of Eurozone industrial production data and anything lower than expected could see Euro weakness creating some excellent opportunities to buy Euros.

Arguably the most important data of the week will be Tuesday afternoon with the release of the UK’s NIESR GDP estimate. A strong reading could see Sterling get close to the 2 year high hit in October for GBPEUR exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBPEUR rates spike higher above 1.27 but fall back very quickly!

GBPEUR has fallen from 1.2755 as the high today back down towards 1.2637 as Mario Draghi disappointed on the big Eurozone ‘QE’ question. In fact what we saw was him refrain from announcing a full blown QE operation. This caused the Euro to strengthen and I think represents a good opportunity for anyone selling the Euro in the future. Longer term it does seem very likely that the Euro will be weaker against the pound, on balance if you are buying sterling with Euros buying on the dips is the best way to maximise your transfer.

The big gamble on GBP rates in 2015 is going to be the election. It would not be surprising to see an increase in voter apathy and the old 2 or 3 way party system split yet further. If you have any major transactions in the New Year making some careful plans now might be a very good idea. We offer a range of contract options including the option to fix prices for the future and trade automatically at certain higher or lower rates. A quick discussion with us over the best strategy to maximise your deal really might be best the course of action. Just look at the high to low movements today! A well placed order could really make a big difference in rates on a large volume of currency.

If you wish to learn more please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Euro Strengthens against Sterling (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR exchange rates have ended the week down following a whole host of Eurozone data due out earlier today.

German Retail Sales showed an improvement up to 1.7% from the expected 1.4% which is seen as a good sign for the Eurozone as a whole.

As Germany is the Eurozone’s leading economy any positive signs often helps to strengthen the single currency and this is what has happened today.

Eurozone inflation came out at 0.3% year on year which although is very low it came in on the estimate.

It is likely that the European Central Bank will intervene with monetary policy but whether or not this will happen next Thursday is up for debate. Typically a central bank does not like to change policy in December so I think we will not see a change until either January or February.

However, I am confident that comments from the ECB president Mario Draghi will possible strengthen the Euro as I think he’ll talk about the upcoming change which is likely to settle the unrest at the moment.

Next week we have the release of UK manufacturing data as well as mortgage approvals on Monday morning. Both these are likely to cause volatility on Sterling vs Euro exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Currency Forecast 2015 – Knowing what may happen in the future allows you to free up time and limit your risk…

GBP

The pound has been one of the best performers of 2014. Will this be the case for 2015? I have to say for the earlier part of 2015 it looks highly unlikely as a very uncertain General Election should cause GBP weakness. We saw this with the Scottish referendum in September. It is not just the outcome here that is important. Business confidence will be significantly lower as both international and domestic businesses alongside individuals refrain from key decisions owing to the uncertainty. This election will be fought and possibly won or lost on the European question and this will greatly unsettle financial markets which in my opinion have failed to so far price this important event in.

Generally speaking the raising and lowering of interest rates causes a currency to fluctuate. If a central bank actually raise rates (or market observers think they might in the future) the currency should strengthen. If there are thoughts that they will lower rates the currency will weaken.

Applying this to the UK, expectations for most of the summer the bank would raise interest rates caused the pound to spike. Remember currency markets move on rumour and speculation as much as fact. This speculation has now been pushed back (and may be pushed even further back) into 2015, if not 2016. If this is the case it is likely sterling will likely fall further.

If you are expecting a larger currency purchase in the first half of 2015 there might be some good arguments for utilising a forward contract to fix current exchange rates. We were in an almost identical position 2 years ago on GBPEUR approaching Christmas and by March had dropped some ten cents.

Part of our service is keep you updated and examine strategies that will protect you from unexpected swings on the currency market so please email on jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options available to you.

Euro

Inflation is the rate at which prices rise or fall. Rapidly rising or falling prices can destabilise an economy and managing Inflation has been a key aspect of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) economic policy in 2014.

Mario Draghi, President of the ECB has stated that the new year may see the ECB ramp up their Quantitative Easing (QE) programme. The ECB’s approach to their economic situation has changed in 2014 from reactive to proactive with a range of measures to try and encourage growth being put in place.

QE (sometimes referred to as printing money) is where a central bank injects money into an economy to rejuvenate it and some observers have predicted the future will be a ‘stagflationary’ period in the Eurozone. This is where an economy fails to grow and inflation is a problem. It might be that just like Japan and the US before the ECB needs to continuously be ramping up the QE presses, this could lead to Euro volatility depending how the market digests such news.

Predicting 2015’s movements on Euro rates could prove very difficult but with a large amount of policy having been decided on in 2014, it may be the Euro is more susceptible to movements from other currencies.

USD

As we expected the dollar has recovered but just like with sterling the rise is mainly linked to expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in 2015.

The US economy is finally performing well but is this mainly down to the trillions of dollars we have seen pumped into markets from their QE programme? The end of the Fed’s QE programme may yet unsettle markets, slowdowns in China, the Eurozone and the UK could see the US once again roll out the QE presses.

I would personally not be holding on for them to raise interest rates anytime soon and USDGDP traders might wish to take stock of the 15 cents improvements.

For more information on the forecast and to be kept up to date with the latest news please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

How well do you really understand what is driving your exchange rate?

The pound looks likely to rise against most of the major currencies longer term as the UK appears likely to raise interest rates in the future. This is important because the raising and lowering of interest rates by a central bank greatly affects the strength or weakness of a currency. Understanding this fact – that the raising and lowering of interest rates greatly affects the strength and weakness of a currency – is key to predicting where exchange rates are headed.

One of the major reasons for GBP strength in 2014 is high expectations the UK would raise interest rates in 2014. This expectation has been pushed well back into 2015, if not 2016 and anyone holding on for this to happen to make an exchange had better have a long time to do so! I remember in 2012 we were almost in an identical position , with expectations high the UK would raise interest rates in the coming year or two. We then had the Eurozone crisis deteriorate (remember Greece on the brink of leaving the Eurozone) and the following Spring the UK entered a triple dip recession and the pound crashed from 1.24 to 1.14 in about 6 weeks!

I do not think we are likely to see such a sharp move but with the General Election and increased political uncertainty on the cards for 2015 a tough patch for the pound appears highly likely. Even though May 2015 seems many months away it is not actually that far in terms of exchange rates. Considering you have seen anywhere from 5-15 cents movement per year for the last few years on GBPEUR, making some plans now for currency in the new year is clearly sensible. 

We offer a range of contract options to fix exchange rates at currency levels and also to automatically purchase when a desired rate is hit (stop / loss and limit order). Speaking with or emailing us with a brief outline of your situation carries no obligation. We are currency specialists who are here to assist in the safe planning and execution of your transfers.

The real risk on exchange rates is doing nothing and leaving it all to chance so to learn more please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk,

I look forward to hearing from you.

Thank you,

Jonathan

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