Tag Archives: GBPEUR exchange rates

Will this sterling rally keep going?

The pound has had a very turbulent start to 2017 being pulled from pillar to post on all fronts. What started as a reasonably positive year as markets expected a quick Supreme Court decision to help lift sterling soon gave way to Theresa May attracting headlines over her hard Brexit approach. The roller-coaster continues next week with the Supreme Court case being released Tuesday at 09.30 am. Then on Thursday we have the latest UK GDP data. All in all a busy week, how will sterling react?

Most commentators expect the Supreme Court decision will lead to sterling strength as the court upholds the previous decision by the High Court to force Theresa May to seek parliamentary approval to trigger Article 50. My personal view is this will be the case and sterling could enjoy a very good start to next week. GBPEUR could hit 1.16-1.17, GBPUSD could hit 1.24-1.25, GBPAUD could hit 1.65-1.66. If you have a transfer to consider then making some plans in advance is well worthwhile to capitalise on the volatility. I do feel any spikes will be short-lived so if you need to buy a foreign currency with the pound making some plans sooner rather than later is the best way forward.

As the market has ‘priced in’ the good news the real risk here is if the previous decision is rejected. Most commentators have reported that this is the big risk, sterling is more likely rise than fall. but if it falls it could be a big all! We have learnt in the last few weeks that nothing should be taken for granted on exchange rates, things can change very quickly. The best way to limit your exposure is to make yourself aware of any pending exchanges you might have and we can monitor the market and offer you some practical assistance with the timing of your plans.

My name is Jonathan Watson and I have worked for nearly ten years helping clients buy and sell foreign exchange. Whether buying or selling an overseas property or paying foreign currency invoices I can help business and private clients. Even if you deal with another currency broker it is important to point out that all companies are not the same. I am very confident I can undercut any exchange rate you are offered from another currency broker as well as offer you some insight into the timing and planning of your transaction.

The one certainty to me is that pound sterling rates will remain volatile. I would be very interested to hear from you to offer some help with this volatility and help you to maximise your currency transfer. Please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting in the future.

Jonathan Watson

Huge Sterling rally following comments made by Theresa May’s Brexit Speech (Tom Holian)

Sterling has gained by a huge amount against all major currencies following Theresa May’s comments made earlier today in her Brexit speech.

Although the Prime Minister has said that the UK can not remain in the single market as staying means that we will not be leaving the European Union she also went on to say that the UK would be looking for new trade deals elsewhere as well as trying to negotiate with our European neighbours.

Theresa May is still confident that the UK will trigger Article 50 by the end of March and that it would be parliament that will vote on the final deal due to be agreed between the UK and the European Union.

This is arguably one of the clearest moments since October concerning Brexit and one of the main reasons for Sterling’s improvement during today’s trading session.

We have also seen the Pound make improvements across the board after the losses that Sterling saw over the weekend against all major currencies.

However, although the Pound has made huge gains today the Supreme Court judgement is still due to come out and this could cause further volatility for Sterling exchange rates when the decision is announced.

The biggest winners of the day are those people looking to buy US Dollars with Sterling and with Donald Trump due to be inaugurated on Friday we have seen the Dollar weaken against Sterling by almost 3% or the difference of £3,000 on a currency transfer of £100,000.

We have also seen Sterling gain by almost 3 cents from the low to the high for GBPEUR exchange rates as it looks as though there is a clear intention to carry on the negotiations rather than cast ourselves adrift.

With all the uncertainty expected to continue in the foreign exchange markets it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date and avoid the risk of the market moving against you

If you would like further information about the process or for a live quote when buying currency then feel free to contact me directly.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers not only am I able to offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your transfer.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

When is the Supreme Court case in the UK and how will this affect the pound?

The pending UK Supreme Court case in the UK is critical to the short term movements on sterling exchange rates and clients with a requirement to buy or sell the pound should be making plans around this. Expectations for the initial reaction to the decision are reasonably clear but once the decision is made we will then be faced with a whole new set of questions over the next direction for the Brexit vote. Markets have loosely priced in the expectation the previous decision will be upheld but there are no guarantees!

If the previous decision is upheld then the pound should rise. GBPEUR could hit 1.17-1.18, GBPUSD upper end would be 1.25, GBPAUD 1.70 and GBPNZD towards 1.80. The pound could easily fall up to 4% if the court case does not go the way markets have been predicting. There is a very strong chance we could be looking at rates on GBPEUR retesting 1.10-1.12 territory whilst on GBPUSD we could slip below 1.20. GBPAUD may drop below 1.60 and GBPNZD below 1.70.

The biggest problem is knowing when this case will be decided. With the Supreme Court reopening tomorrow from their recess period the news could come as early as tomorrow. I expect it will be between tomorrow and next week which gives clients looking to buy or sell sterling a small window of opportunity to plan in.

In order to maximise such an opportunity the best strategy in such a market is number one to be prepared and number two to understand your options. My order book is currently very high with ‘Limit’ and ‘Stop / Loss’ orders. A ‘Limit’ order allows you trade at a higher level whilst a ‘Stop / Loss’ order allows you to protect your rate should the market fall. In such an uncertain and potentially volatile market I feel the best way forward is to use a combination of the above tools to help limit your exposure and trade on any improvements.

If you have a transaction to consider and wish for some assistance with the timing and planning of any exchanges please feel free to contact me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk with an overview of your position and preferably a phone number so I can quickly contact you.

Thank you for reading this post and I look forward to answering any questions on the markets or the services we can provide.

Jonathan Watson

 

Will sterling rise or fall on the Supreme Court decision?

The pound is fairly stable and range bound at present as markets keenly await the next direction of the Brexit. We are all eagerly awaiting the next bits of news over the Supreme Court decision and it is this which will determine the more immediate direction on the currency pairing. If you have a transfer to consider involving sterling understanding what is happening and being ready to react is the best way to capitalise on this news. At the moment we do not know when the decision will be released and this is keeping the market nervously on its toes.

Essentially upholding the previous High Court decision should see the pound rally but I think the gains will be limited. My personal expectation is for this to lead to sterling gaining up to 2% against its counterparts. If the decision goes for the government sterling will fall because I believe markets have very much priced in ‘good news’ that the previous decision would be upheld. If it falls in this scenario sterling could lose up to 4% as it becomes apparent a hard Brexit is more likely again. Sterling might retest the kind of levels we saw back in October last year.

GBPEUR Focus

After the Supreme Court decision attention will still remain on the Brexit and any good news for sterling will be shortlived in my opinion. There will still be many unanswered questions and as the resignation of Sir Ivan rogers, the UK’s Ambassador to the EU shows there is scope for further political casualties. Attention towards the end of the quarter will focus on the likelihood of Theresa May triggering Article 50 plus the Dutch and French elections. I expect GBPEUR could trade between 1.12 – 1.23 depending on the various outcomes here. If you wish to trade at these levels and wish to be kept informed of developments please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPUSD Focus

The big news on the US dollar is the likelihood of further interest rate rises. A strong jobs report has given rise to expectation we could see further interest rate hikes soon and GBPUSD has dipped. I expect GBPUSD to trade between 1.14 and 1.25 in the coming weeks. As you can see I feel the US dollar will be strengthening.

If you have a currency transfer involving sterling and wish to optimise your position with some expert insight and information please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I work as a currency specialist and have appeared on BBC News discussing Brexit and the impact on the currency markets. I would be very happy to hear from you and answer any questions and help you with your situation.

Thank you for reading, I hope to hear from you soon.

When shall I Trade? (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/EUR

I feel long term we will see Sterling rally against the Euro, I feel it is chronically undervalued at present. The only reason the pound is below 1.20 is due to the electorate’s decision to leave the EU. The key factor in the pound’s value is trade negotiations, which currently leaves the nations economy in uncertainty. The High Court Judgement as to whether the government will vote on the triggering of Article 50 is due to complete in early January and this will determine whether there is a hard or soft Brexit. A hard Brexit would weaken the pound substantially. If you have to buy Euros short term and wish to eliminate any risk from your trade it may be wise take advantage of current levels.

Medium to long term as trade negotiations become more apparent Sterling should gain strength. The Euro also has some serious underlying problems which could rear their head. Political uncertainty  caused by the emergence of right wing groups could cause weakness. Also we have Italian Banks bad loans in excess of €360bn, A debt crisis in Greece and shockingly low inflation. Any of these factors could severely weaken the Euro.

GBP/USD

Following the FED’s decision to hike rates and forward planning indicating there could be as many as three more. I think the US dollar has further ground to gain on Sterling. The Dow is finishing at record highs and economic data is very strong. If I had to buy Dollars I would be moving quickly.

If  you have a currency requirement it is wise to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board we can keeo you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

 

Rollercoaster day for Sterling points to heavy ceiling for buying Euro and Dollar exchange rates (Joshua Privett)

Today buying Euro rates breached fresh 5 month highs in addition to more attractive levels for Australian Dollar buyers following the historic interest rate decision last night across the Atlantic in the US.

This was only their second rise in interest rates in over a decade. In the world’s largest economy, there was certainly going to be financial ripples as a result.

The obvious and direct result was that for anyone holding Sterling the Dollar become more expensive following the rate hike announcement.

But why did the Euro and Austrlian Dollar take a bit of a dive?

The USD/EUR currency pairing is the most heavily traded in the world – frankly because they are the two most widely used currencies globally. So as a rule of thumb, due to the large amounts of transactions concentrated between the two, when one of the two currencies suddenly gets a large boost in demand, as we saw today, the other loses value through decreased demand. This is why GBP/EUR briefly breached 1.20 earlier today as a secondary effect of the hike.

The gains against the Australian Dollar similarly were due to a lower demand for AUD which sucked away some of its recent, and frankly over-inflated, value. The interest rate on the Australian Dollar is at record lows but still much higher than elsewhere at 1.5%, compared to the UK’s at 0.25% for example. However, it is traditionally seen as an unstable currency, so when you have a safe-haven currency which raises its base rate, investors like to opt for this safer option, and the sell-off of Aussies for US Dollars is why USD/AUD gained today, as well as GBP/AUD.

However, markets moved back sharply in the afternoon following this move, with GBP/EUR almost losing a full cent as an example.

It seems markets are worried the recent improvements on Sterling will not carry through the volatile end of year trading period. At the end of the year traders and companies wind down their positions in order to consolidate their profits in a stable currency to avoid coming back to their desks in January and finding outside forces have eaten away some of its value.

Of course the Pound is seen as anything but stable at the moment. So the Pound seems set to lose out to major safe havens such as the Dollar, Swiss Franc, and potentially the Euro, however, more exotic currencies should still see it hold its own.

As such anyone with a buying Euro and US Dollar requirement may be wise to move sooner rather than later to avoid the hefty amount of risk which should be piled onto Sterling in the very near term.

Sterling buyers, of course may consider the opposite and play the currency markets by ear as we edge closer to the Christmas period to try at catch the market at any peaks which emerge.

I am well positioned to help anyone with a Sterling based currency requirement manage their exposure to the markets in the run-up to the new year and beyond in order to maximise your currency return in this volatile marketplace. 

Contact me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the particulars of your transfer. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on an upcoming transfer.

You can also contact me on 01494 787 478, and simply as the reception team for Joshua (me) and they will put you through to my line.

 

US Interest Rates up by 0.25% (Daniel Johnson)

Last night saw the US interest rate decision. Janet Yellen the Head of the Federal Reserve indicated at the end of last year there would be as many as four rate hikes during 2016. None of which materialised, she has been branded with a very  cautious reputation. Although the FED is meant to act as a separate entity, I can’t help but think the FED’s caution was due to the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election.

Trump has been very vocal about his wish to raise rates and has gone as far as to threaten Yellen’s position. Rates went up by 0.25% as anticipated so there was little movement on the GBP/EUR. Yellen stated after the hike that there would be up to three hikes this year, this can be taken with a pinch of salt as with most forward guidance.

Many investors left the Euro for US dollar due to safety and of course an increase in return. The dollar rallied against the Euro, but as mentioned earlier there was no great shakes on GBP/EUR.

With all the uncertainty surrounding Brexit trade negotiations and 1.20 seeming to be a resistance barrier if I was buying Euros I would be tempted to take advantage of current levels.

The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If  you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

Will this week’s data releases help push the Pound even higher? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling has managed to hold on to the gains it made through November as the currency continues to trade at a 3 month high against the Euro, and also a 2 month high when paired with the US Dollar.

The recent boost within the Pounds value has been welcomed by those planning on exchanging Pounds for another foreign currency, as at the beginning of last month Sterling was trading around it’s lowest levels against the Euro by almost 5 years, and at it’s lowest levels against the Dollar in around 30 years.

The recent upward movement for the Pound has made large currency exchanges involving the Pound considerably cheaper, and I think that Pound sellers have a key decision to make when it comes to their transfer. For example the Pound could continue to strengthen and consolidate above 1.20, that level could also act as a ceiling and we could see the Pound struggle to breach that level before falling back into the mid to low teens.

One approach would be to book at least part of your currency transfer around the current levels, as this approach allows clients to take advantage of the current 3 month highs whilst leaving themselves open to booking the next part at a more advantageous level, should that favourable movement occur.

There are a couple of factors which could impact the Pound over the following weeks. The Supreme Court hearing came to an end on Friday of last week, and although the result isn’t expected to be released until the end of January, expectations are for the High Courts ruling to remain in place. Despite this consensus I think that if the Government is successful with their appeal, we can expect to see the Pound fall as the Brexit process will be more straightforward and therefore, likely to happen sooner.

There are some key data releases this week and later this morning which could affect the Pounds value, and readers of this blog can feel free to get in touch regarding the times and details of these potential market movers.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages.

Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also provide me with a telephone number to contact you on, or you can call in on 01494 787 478 and ask for reception to speak with Joe.

Buying Euro rates soar whilst GBP/USD and GBP/AUD remain relatively stagnant (Joshua Privett)

Buying Euro rates of exchange have enjoyed a further boost following the long (to say the least) awaited announcement of further emergency stimulus in the Eurozone to keep growth on track. However, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD have remained relatively stagnant following the Pound’s losses earlier this week.

The Pound has come under renewed pressure this week as the Supreme Court decision over Parliament’s involvement in the Brexit negotiation was debated and fleshed out in what was, on occasion, quite gripping television.

Previously the Judicial Court had ruled in the favour of Parliament being involved in the invoking of Article 50 as a voting process. The frenzy of investors flowing into Sterling, which raised its value through increased demand. was attributed to the high expectation that Parliament’s involvement would yield a longer time-frame for the UK to enact a Brexit, alongside the likelihood that MP’s would push to retain close economic ties with the EU.

This has now been called into question on two fronts. Firstly, MP’s have cut a deal with Theresa May to push through a mandate that Parliament will support the Government’s deadline to enact Article 50 by the previously agreed date of March 2017. In return, May will be more forthright about her plans for her upcoming negotiations with the EU which were announced on Wednesday.

Secondly, the appeal with the Supreme Court is not simply a re-hashing of the previous court case. The Government is using more complicated lines of argument, including precedent from Parliament’s actions, to suggest that the Government can act unilaterally without heavy Parliamentary oversight.

Whilst it is debatable how much this is landing with the judges, markets have certainly been made nervous that even though the Government is appealing, they have a chance of winning. Whilst this is not a murder trail with sudden new evidence coming to light, with little precedence for such a decision in the past, the uncertainty about which way the Supreme Court may swing is high.

This uncertainty is what has caused Sterling to lose some of its recent strength, it is simply a gift for anyone with a GBP/EUR interest that this has coincided with news of further financial stimulus in the Eurozone to reverse some of these losses. US Dollar and Australian Dollar buyers are unfortunately not so lucky.

Moving forward the US interest rate decision on Wednesday next week will likely provide a further boon for Euro buyers (due to the special relationship between USD/EUR) and additional woes for US Dollar buyers.

In the medium term however, the Pound is expected to have its rally against all major currencies dampened further by year-end profit taking which is set to take place in the latter part of December, so whilst US Dollar and AUD buyers may need to move with greater urgency, Euro buyers may see a ‘sweet spot’ emerging on GBP/EUR over the next week or so.

In these instances it is best to be in a position to move fairly quickly in case any tempting opportunities emerge, and the well informed purchaser will certainly have an advantage to avoid being ‘last to the party’ and being forced to accept a rate of exchange below any premium which is reached.

I am in a position to offer a proactive service to help my customers in timing their transfers, particularly during these volatile periods, in order to secure desirable exchange rates. I work for one of the UK’s leading brokerages with the average tenure of our dealer’s being in excess of 8 years in this job – longer than most companies in their entirety – so I am ideally placed to secure the most competitive rates and have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere for GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD. Simply contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk and I will respond as soon as I am able.

Similarly if you are looking to be buying Sterling, as my article points out there are likely to be further opportunities for you later in the month with a cheaper Pound, so you can contact me to discuss the options open to you to monitor the markets and secure a desired exchange rate.

 

Sterling gains on positive UK trade data, will the bullish trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The latest set of UK economic data surprised investors today and as a result, the Pound has received a welcome boost across the board.

After a very good November the Pound fell off it’s highs against both the Euro and the US Dollar earlier this week, but the currency is regaining some of it’s lost value and approaching those highs once again which the GBP/EUR pair approaching 1.20 once again.

The Pound has recovered particularly well versus the Euro after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced yesterday that it will be extending its bond purchasing program as a form of quantitative easing.

The Pound gained off the back of this news mostly due to Euro weakness but today those gains have been boosted further. UK Trade is looking a lot healthier after data released today showed October’s visible trade balance dropped to -£9.7bn when many had expected to see it drop from -£13.8bn down to -£11.8bn.

This reduction is of course good news for the UK, and trade balance figures are often discussed in financial media after earlier this year it was announced that the pound had the highest deficit within the developed world.

Now that GBP/USD is trading above 1.25 and GBP/EUR is closing in on 1.20 once again it appears that the Pound is looking healthy around these levels after gaining a lot of ground in a short period of time.

If you’re planning on taking advantage of the recent gains by Sterling by converting the currency into another major currency, feel free to get in contact to discuss  exchange rates and timings.

You can contact me directly jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.