Tag Archives: GBPEUR exchange rates

Sterling – The Week Ahead (Daniel Johnson)

Last week saw the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, I remained unchanged at 0.5% as expected. What was of interest however was the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote. The MPC consists of nine members and they vote as to whether there should be any change in Interest Rates. The vote has been coming in at 8-1 for many months with Ian McCafferty the sole member voting in favour of a rate hike. This changed on Thursday with McCafferty changing his stance putting the vote to 9-0. This caused Sterling to weaken against the majority of major currency pairings.

The EU referendum is really dragging Sterling down, if there is a Brexit I think it would be catastrophic the Pound. Trade relations would could become incredibly problematic and until the referendum is concluded I doubt Sterling will move above 1.35.

Key Data Releases this Week

Wednesday will see the release of Industrial and Manufacturing data, which already sits at a six year low.  There could well be a further fall which could weaken Sterling. GDP figures come in on Wednesday afternoon and due to continued Global Economic uncertainty I think we will see a drop which will cause more woes for the Pound.

Timing a trade correctly is vital to maximising your return, with the help of a broker you can expect to be kept up to date with vital data releases and market movement. My clients have been extremely happy with the way their trades have worked out as of late and I would would take pleasure in assisting any new clients with their trade. I will also guarantee to beat any competitors exchange rate. If you have a currency requirement I would  recommend getting in touch by  e-mail me  at dcj@currencies.co.uk . Thank you for reading my blog it is greatly appreciated I look forward to hearing from you.

 

UK ‘Super Thursday’ was not so super, and the upcoming week ahead. (Dayle Littlejohn)

It was another poor week for sterling exchange rates due to ‘Super’ Thursday’s data releases. Super Thursday is when the Bank of England releases their latest Interest Rate decision, Minutes and Inflation report. Due to the data releases GBPEUR dropped 2 1/2 cents and GBPUSD 1 1/2 cents. 

As for the interest rate decision, the Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep interest rates at historic lows of 0.5%. This was the first time since August 2015. It now appears the first hike will not occur until at least next year and interest rates will not rise above 1% until 2019.

The Bank of England minutes suggested that the UK economy had slowed slightly more than expected and also exclaimed an increase in population and changes in taxes meant that the populations wage growth had become weaker than anticipated and would not increase as expected. The bank had predicted last autumn that wage growth would rise at 3.75%, however this was cut to 3%.

It also appeared to be doom and gloom for the inflation report. Governor Mark Carney exclaimed the constant dropping in oil prices is not helping the problem and went on to suggest inflation will remain at worrying lows for the time being. However the Governor did try and lighten the mood by predicting the target 2% inflation level would be hit within a couple of years.

It possibly could be another tricky week for sterling exchange rates. Tuesday we have UK trade numbers. As Europe is the UK’s largest trade partner, I believe GBPEUR was overvalued throughout December therefore trade numbers could suffer. I expect sterling to lost ground across the board Tuesday morning. Later in the week on Thursday the NIESR GDP estimate is to be released. With the Bank of England painted such a bleak picture I wouldn’t be surprised to see the NIESR follow suit.

The start of 2016 has just shown that the UK’s economic recovery is far from complete and with the BOE’s negative commentary and a possible upcoming referendum (possibly as early as June) I expect this year is going to be testing for the pound. If you have to buy a foreign currency this year, now is the time to start creating a strategy to make it as cheap as possible and this is where I can help.

It’s important when trading currency you analyse both of the currencies in question. If you have an upcoming currency transfer to make this week, month or year I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD etc) and your individual requirement (buying a property abroad, paying a company invoice) and I will personally respond to you with my forecast and the process of using our company.

Quite simply we can give you economic information to help you time your transfer and can also offer you a better exchange rate than what you would receive with your bank and other brokerages. This can be anywhere between 1-5%. My direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn. Alternatively call me Monday morning on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you would simply like a comparison against your provider email me with the exact figures, time scales and the best number to contact you on and I will call you with our live buying price. This will take 2 minutes and could save you thousands! 

Busy day for the pound! Will sterling rise or fall?

Sterling is likely to really struggle in the current environment with lots of pressure over expectations the Bank of England will cut growth and inflation forecasts for the UK. There has been immense uncertainty surrounding the UK’s Brexit expected to be finalised in the coming months. The Bank of England is likely to discuss today the uncertainty relating to this event and this will in my opinion undoubtedly lead to GBP weakness. The EU Referendum is just another worry to lump on the back of the pound which has had one of its worst ever starts to a year.

Falling Inflation has removed any need for an interest rate hike and expectations for a hike which seemed so likely only a few months ago are now being price well into 2017. The main trigger for the pound to rise should be an interest rate rise or signs of an improving economy. With little sign of the right conditions arising for an interest rate rise I would expect the pound will really struggle in the coming weeks and months. From an investors point of view I think sterling is really likely to struggle to maintain composure in this market and today’s data is key to highlighting the extent to which uncertainty is rife.

For more information on the latest tends and themes to impact your exchange rate please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. In my role as a foreign exchange specialist I am very confident I can offer you some useful facts and information to help you get a better deal.

What impact will the BOE Interest Rate Decision have on Sterling? (Daniel Johnson)

Thursday will see the Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate decision. It is highly unlikely there will be any change. At has remained at 0.5% for years, and Mark Carney has indicated there will be no rat hike until 2017. I doubt anything until 2018 personally.

Although the rate decision itself may be a bit of a non event what is of interest is how the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote. The MPC consists of nine members who vote on whether there should be a change to interest rates. The vote has been coming in at 8-1 for months with Ian McCafferty the sole member voting in favour of a hike. If there is any change in the votes expect market volatility. The current figures coming out for the UK economy are well below par, when coupled with general global economic uncertainty there is an outside chance a member of the MPC could change there vote. If McCafferty changes his stance or another member votes in favor of a rate drop expect Sterling to lose value.

If you would like an in depth forecast to assist with your personal trade requirements I would be happy to assist. I specialise in GBP/EUR, GBP/USD GBP/CHF,  GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD. If you have a currency requirement in such volatile times it is vital to time your trade. I am constantly watching market movement and data releases to try and predict where the market is headed. I am happy to  help you maximise your trade and I can also guarantee to beat any competitors rate.I have consistent large trades going through over the next few days , potentially I can tag new clients on to these trades and gain a very competitive rate.  If you have a currency requirement I would  recommend getting in touch by mailing me directly at dcj@currencies.co.uk . Thank you for reading my blog it is greatly appreciated I look forward to hearing from you.

Sterling records significant losses on GBP/EUR, but less so on GBP/USD (Joshua Privett)

Sterling weakened marginally on the markets yesterday, causing small losses across the board, but the most serious ones were recorded against the Euro. This was why GBP/EUR almost dipped below 1.31, but since recovered slightly as the afternoon progressed.

The reason for the more visible losses for Sterling against the Euro was that the Euro itself had a very strong day on the currency markets, and could be described as the clear winner by quite some distance.

This was due to results showing unemployment had now fallen across the entire Eurozone for the third month in a row.

Yesterday highlighted to anyone hoping to make a Euro purchase that there is still significant room for GBP/EUR rates to fall, particularly with levels being as low as 1.28 only a few weeks ago.

Further Eurozone data is expected to be released today and will likely paint the Euro in a similarly positive light.

The European Commission will be presenting their growth forecasts for Eurozone during 2016, which will likely have the full attention of markets tomorrow.

The past few months have seen the Eurozone regulalry post positive growth figures, with their 11 months of emergency financial stimulus finally showing similar results that the UK enjoyed following our own recession.

As such markets are expecting some optimistic forecasts for the Eurozone today which will likely see the Euro make further gains against the Pound throughout the day.

Similarly, these gains should be more extensice than yesterday, due to the added pressure of the announcement of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision.

For the past 4 months consecutively, this has caused the Pound to suffer on the currency markets. The reason being that the chance of an actual interest rate occuring in the UK is almost non-existent.

In fact Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, has now stated on more than once that due to worryingly and prolonged low inflation leves a hike will not be on the table until at least 2017.

If the vote split for a hike comes in at a complete whitewash of 9-0 against a vote, GBP/EUR rates, and GBP/USD buying rates should be put under further pressure.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros or Dollars to buy should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask our reception for Joshua, and I will respond personally to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your foreign currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current improvements on GBP/EUR can be fixed for a small deposit if you do not require your currency until later in the month or March. This will avoid your transfer getting more expensive if the drops we are expecting manifest. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Outlook – GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD (Daniel Johnson)

Sterling has lost value against the majority of major currency pairings. This is due to the factors listed below:

  • The EU referendum, during times of political uncertainty the currency in question will weaken. With no resolution for some time this will weigh heavily on the Pound.
  • Poor Retail Sales Figures
  • Poor Manufacturing Data
  • Well below Par Inflation – Inflation currently sits at 0.1% and the target is 2%
  • China’s slow down in Growth

GBP/EUR

The Euro has benefited from China’s slow down with many Investors flooding back to the Euro. This is due to carry trading, where an investor would borrow a currency at a low interest rate, eg the Euro and invest in a riskier currency eg AUD,NZD for higher returns. The global uncertainty sparked by the situation in China has caused investors to panic and move back to the Euro. This combined with the poor data has caused GBP/EUR to drop from 1.42 in December to the low 1.30s where we sit now. It is definitely going to be difficult for Sterling to recover. A big swing could occur if the head the ECB implements lager monthly increments in the Quantitative Easing (QE) Program.

QE is essentially pumping money into a struggling economy in order to stimulate growth. The first opportunity for this to occur will be March. For that reason if I was a Euro seller I may consider moving before. The key data release this week will be the BOE interest rate decision on Thursday. If there is a change in the MPC vote we could see swing si in GBP/EUR value. If you would like a more detailed forecast taking in to account your personal currency requirement please do not hesitate to get in touch using the contact details below.

GBP/USD

Due to the Fed introducing a rate hike in December and indicating further rate hikes in 2016 I do not think there is much hope for the Pound against the Greenback for the foreseeable future. I think the general trend will be a drop in Sterling value. There will no doubt be small Spikes in favour of the Pound but it you will have to follow the markets very closely in order to take advantage of these windows of opportunity. Watch out for Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday afternoon which is renowned for creating market volatility.  If you would like an expert opinion on when would be a wise time to move on your trade please do drop me an email.

GBP/AUD

The RBA recently decided against a rate cut despite China’s growth slipping to a twenty-five year low. The Aussie currently stands firm.I do not think a rate hike is out of the question in March however which could bring Sterling back towards the 2.10 level. AUD sellers have to be particularly wise in order take advantage of their trade. Keep in mind resistance levels when you are choosing your target rate.

Timing a trade correctly is vital to maximising your return, with the help of a broker you can expect to be kept up to date with vital data releases and market movement. My clients have been extremely happy with the way their trades have worked out as of late and I would would take pleasure in assisting any new clients with their trade. I will also guarantee to beat any competitors exchange rate. If you have a currency requirement I would  recommend getting in touch by  e-mailing me directly at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog it is greatly appreciated I look forward to hearing from you.

 

How will GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD fare in February? (Joshua Privett)

Sterling had an incredibly difficult period in January. Rarely is it that currency market movements make the news but the dramatic falls on rates to buy Euros and various Dollars was hard to ignore.

To gain an understanding for how GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD will fare next month it would be invaluable to look back to how the UK economy performed during December and January.

The first few weeks of each month normally see the largest movements for exchange rates on the Pound. This is because the first two weeks are when  data for output in various sectors of the economy are tallied and released for the previous month – causing the value of the economy’s currency to change wildly based on how positive or negative the figures released paint the UK to global markets.

This is why the first few weeks of January saw the most serious slides for Sterling’s value, as December was was proven to be a very testing month.

Due to the flooding in the North, West, and later on parts of the South-East, industrial and manufacturing output slowed dramatically.

Even retail sales during the holiday period only grew at a fifth of what was expected.

With the flooding having continued into January, I would not be surprised that the latest set of figures to be released over the coming weeks will be displaying the UK in a fairly unflattering light.

Furthermore, January had seen the added hit to the financial service industry – the engine room of the British economy.

Deteriorating news coming out of China caused the second serious panic on global stock markets since October. With more capital going out of financial markets than going into them, we could see an added dimension to Sterling’s current weakness this month which will create testing times for Euro and Dollar buyers.

I strongly recommend that anyone with foreign currency to buy using Pounds in the coming months should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels for Euros and Dollars can be fixed to avoid any further currency movements making your future purchase more expensive.

February is a very important month for the pound!

February is a very important month for sterling because we will get the latest news on the UK’s Referendum information and the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report. The pound has been sold because of worries over the EU Referendum or ‘Brexit’, at this point we know very little hence sterling being on the backfoot. Sterling should react to the latest news on this event with interest, February could bring with it three key points.

3 Key Points due  on the Brexit in February which will impact GBP

1 – Referendum Date. Unknown when we will get the date but it could be as early as June or as late as 2017. Once we know the date we can begin to plan and asses how the pound will react.

2 – EU Re negotiations. David Cameron is renegotiating the UK’s relationship with the EU to present the public with a clearer choice ahead of the Referendum. Headlines around good news on how this is going should cause the pound to rise, bad headlines could see sterling slide!

3 – EU Summit 18-19th February. This is when we might know the results of any re negotiations for the UK. Once we know this information markets can digest the information and decide the likely outcome and take positions on the outcome.

Markets hate uncertainty and at present we have lots! Next week is the latest news on the UK economy from the Bank of England which is difficult to be viewed in a positive light but could surprise us. It seems every time the Bank of England or Mark Carney speak sterling dips so this is a very important release.

If you are buying or selling sterling in the future next month will give us clearer direction as we learn the latest news on events that will impact sterling exchange rates. Whether you are buying or selling the pound we are here to help! This year is critical for the UK with the EU Referendum having the potential to really upset decades of economic and political cohesion between the UK and the EU. On amounts of £10,000 to multi millions we work with business and private clients to assist with the very best rates of exchange and provide a helpful, friendly and experienced broker service to guide you through the foreign exchange market. For a quick overview of the market and all of your options when considering a large currency purchase please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

EU Referendum heats up!

The reports David Cameron is close to sealing a deal on being able to better control benefits for immigrating Europeans has helped sterling as this is expected to be a major issue in the vote. Sterling has found some support and this could be a very good opportunity to be buying a foreign currency with sterling as next week is the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report which if anytihng like the last few comments form the Bank should be bad news for sterling! If you are buying or selling the pound 2016 has been very choppy and I expect will continue to be so, further losses for the pound on the whole very likely but there will be spikes to take advantage of. Achieving the best rate in such a market means being able to react quickly to the changing news and events. If you are considering an exchange and wish to be kept up to date with the important events and understand the latest forecasts please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk and I can try to help you.

The pound has really struggled this year because of the uncertainty relating to the UK Referendum on EU Membership. The UK is proposing to hold a Referendum on remaining part of the European Union which it has been a member of since 1973. The likelihood is that the uncertainty around this event will cause the pound to weaken although breaking news today that David Cameron is apparently closing in on a deal has helped the pound to find some favour. I expect this to be a feature of sterling movements in the next few months and right up until the actual Referendum is settled. Sterling will react to the headlines moving higher and lower according to the prevailing sentiment.

Next week is the latest UK data and the Bank of England report, personally I cannot see good news but will better news from the EU help sterling instead? Keep up to date with our blog by bookmarking us or contact me Jonathan directly for updates and assistance planning your exchanges. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information.

Sterling starting to weaken on the markets ahead of tomorrow’s growth figures (Joshua Privett)

Sterling’s value is seen to be dropping marginally against all major currencies this morning – down half a Cent against the Euro, USD, and 1.5 Cents against the Australian Dollar.

Yesterday with little economic data released, buying rates remained relatively flat compared to the serious volatility we have become used to since the beginning of January. The only gains were seen against the Euro as the Eurozone had some poor inflation figures of the own to match what the UK and the rest of the world are currently experiencing.

Today it seems further flooding in the UK from its most recent bout of heavy rain is reminding markets that the first look at growth figures for the final quarter of 2015 in the UK will be released tomorrow morning – explaining the gradual weakening for Sterling rates as the morning progressed.

Frankly, this is a piece of data which is heavily expected to cause some Sterling weakness once the exact figure is confirmed. We have already seen individual looks at the manufacturing, industrial, retail, and service sectors each month between October and December and the slowing trend is quite stark.

This was accelerated during December’s flooding with major manufacturing and industrial centres in the North and West of the country affected, as well as lower buying activity in these areas inhibiting growth in the retail sector.

Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, himself last week was the first to use the description ‘slowing economy’ to describe the UK’s current situation, which led to a near two Cent drop on GBP/EUR, 1.5 Cents on GBP/USD, and 4 Cents on GBP/AUD as the Pound’s value came under further pressure.

Should the growth figures to be released tomorrow morning officially confirm this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see similar falls in Euro and Dollar buying rates on the markets by the close of business on Thursday.

I strongly recommend that anyone looking to purchase foreign currency with Sterling over the next few weeks or months should contact me overnight whilst the markets are quiet on jjp@currencies.co.uk. After explaining your situation we can discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return based on the time period you have to complete your transfer.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current levels can even be fixed if you do not require your currency until a later date. 01494 727 478