Tag Archives: GBPEUR exchange rates

Is the bullish run for GBP exchange rates now over? (Joseph Wright)

As the end of the week approaches it would seem like Sterling’s rebound is coming to an end, as across the board Sterling is generally down today as it was yesterday as well.

Sterling has recently been boosted by a number of world leaders such as IMF managing director Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and US President Barack Obama all suggesting that Britain is better off remaining within the Eurozone, and this has been reflected within the most recent ‘Brexit’ polls as the ‘remain’ camp are seeing a significant lead and this has boosted risk sentiment towards the UK moving forward and therefore, Sterling strength.

Those looking for the best time to convert Sterling into Euro’s may wish to consider doing that sooner rather than later, as since GBPEUR tested the 1.2900 trading level a few times earlier this week, it’s since been on a slow decline downwards which is something I’m expecting to continue in the lead up to the EU Referendum on the 23rd of June.

Although Sterling’s upwards trend has begun to slow against the Dollar, the slowdown has been far less abrupt than GBPEUR’s and I think we could see some further strength in the rate of cable before market jitters and political uncertainty once again take over in the Referendums lead up. I’m not expecting to see the inter-bank rate go higher than 1.50 before June the 23rd but I do think it could test the late 1.40’s before returning to its longer term downward trend.

In recent times Sterling has performed well on UK bank holidays due to the thin volumes traded. Those with a interest in a strengthening Pound will hope the currency get’s off to a good start off the back of this as the beginning of May is going to be busy on the financial data front, with plenty of scope for volatility and potential Sterling weakness.

Next week see’s the release of US Non-Farm Payroll Figures, US Manufacturing, AUD Interest Rate Decision, EU Producer Price figures and US Unemployment data just to name a few of the biggest potential movers of currency markets. Although none of the data sets mentioned apply specifically to the UK economy, all have the potential to swing GBP based currency pairs so they’re worth paying attention to as the currency market is a zero sum game and there will always winners or losers.

If you would like to discuss the weeks major events, or an upcoming currency requirement you have involving GBP, it’s worth getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to take advantage of award winning exchange rates and high levels of client security. You can also speak to me over the phone by calling 01494 787 478 and asking for Joseph.

GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD sliding, only GBP/USD likely to rise (Joshua Privett)

After a dramatic week for the Pound and the intervention of a sitting US President, GBP/EUR and GBP/AUD are starting to move back down after the near two month highs reached yesterday.

This is likely due to poor UK growth figures for the first quarter of this year, which has caused the dominant story of the positive effects of Obama’s visit on the Remain campaign to fade into the background.

The only reason GBP/USD is on the rise is due to poor US housing data.

With popularity ratings higher than our own PM in the UK, Obama’s initially gentle and then firmer suggestions that the UK will be better off in the EU rather than out of it, has been received overwhelmingly positively by financial markets. Frankly, by a surprising amount.

But Polls are still well within the margin of error, and with such a large swathe of the population still undecided, UK based companies will have to seriously re-evaluate their exposure ahead of the Referendum vote. Similar to February when Boris Johnson announced that he was joining the Leave campaign, mass Pound sell-offs will likely occur unless the Remain camp accrues a commanding lead.

Particularly since whilst the Remain camp are ahead, polls on voter turnout itself favour the Leave camp overwhelmingly.

In the short term there is no additional data out between now and the start of may which is expected to assist Euro buyers, the final two weeks of each month are relatively quiet compared to the onslaught of information at the beginning, so expect severe volatility on GBP/EUR and GBP/AUD next week.

With rates on GBP/EUR down 0.7 cents and rates on GBP/AUD down 1.4 cents from the highs of yesterday, and with UK growth slowing by a third compared to the previous quarter, this dominant narrative will likely see gradual slides on buying rates in the run up to May.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Joshua. We can discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return, particularly those whose requirements may be a month or two away.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current levels can be fixed to avoid potential drops on the currency markets as we edge closer to the Referendum affecting your transfer.

Those with more immediate requirements can receive a free, competitive quote, whist Euro and Dollar sellers can reach out and I will outline how best to safely ride the expected movements in your favour to any peaks which emerge in the short-term. jjp@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD all rise before the weekend (Joshua Privett)

Buying rates for Euros and Dollars saw some truly uplifting gains ahead of the weekend, with GBP/EUR being the standout performer, reaching 1.28 for the first time in almost two months.

Euro buyers, and anyone with GBP/USD, or GBP/AUD requirements, can lay their thanks for this turnaround squarely at the feet of Obama’s visit to the UK, and the overall positive impacts markets feel this will have on the likelihood of the UK remaining part of the EU.

Obama himself is even more popular than our own PM here, and his firm representation of the international community’s support for a Britain stronger in Europe is fully expected to translate into votes.

Particularly since his additional statements over the weekend that a UK outside of the EU would go to the back of the queue for trade deals with the US – the decision to leave is now a graver one.

At least, this is clearly how markets reacted to the news, which is why Sterling was up against all major currencies.

Polls are, however, still alarmingly close. Most recently it was 39% apiece for the Leave and Remain camps, with 12% of the population undecided and the rest likely not to vote.

Once May arrives companies will have to seriously consider their financial exposure in the run up to the June vote. We already saw mass sell-offs of the Pound in February when Boris Johnson joined the Leave campaign, and any repeats will see similar falls on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD as demand for Sterling wavers.

Over the weekend markets will be closed but recent poll data will be released for markets to trade on and react to come Monday morning. Obama’s visit may simply result in a short-term bump as he leaves the UK later toda.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me directly on jjp@currencies.co.uk

If you email me with a brief description of your upcoming need for currency over the next few months, and the best number to reach you on come Monday morning, I can then contact you directly once markets open.

I can convey how the most recent poll data has effected trading, and whether the more negative tone of the latter part of Obama’s visit will cause any reverse in trend as the week continues for Euro and Dollar buyers alike. We can then discuss a strategy for your transfer based on this to maximise your Euro and Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and Euro or Dollar sellers can also get in contact to discuss your options .

 

Buying Euro rates peaked again? (Joshua Privett)

Buying Euro rates have been teasing the 1.27 mark over the past three business days, presenting 5 cent gains for anyone with a GBP/EUR requirement since last Monday.

Yesterday’s European Central Bank meeting saw rates edging back into the 1.26’s with the decision to keep European interest rates on hold, and a confident appraisal of the recent gains in growth and unemployment from the Bank’s President Mario Draghi, allowing the recent confidence in the Euro to expand further.

Yet this morning, slight dips in Eurozone manufacturing and services performance has allowed the central level to pip just above 1.27 once more. This seems to be a recurring story over the past few business days.

The common term for this occurrence is as a ‘level of resistance’.

The main reason for this near stalemate is the fact that the European Central Bank’s policies are currently under fire for being too extreme.  The quantitative easing and interest rates at 0% which have been in effect for a number of months, and were the main reason why last year the Euro moved above 1.30 last year for the first time in 6 years, are being criticised.

This is the first time the Eurozone’s policies are being criticised openly by MP’s, and with the German Finance Minister leading the charge, currency markets may have to wrestle with the prospect of a reduction in the Eurozone’s current emergency measures to stimulate growth.

Should this scenario occur, the value of the Euro will soar to newer heights, and we will likely be getting more information over the weekend concerning this.

With a level of resistance having been reached, and with the combined economic argument above and the political argument of the looming Referendum, GBP/EUR is forecasted for further heavy falls as we edge closer to June. This current level of resistance around the high 1.26’s, low 1.27’s could be the last peak before the heavy campaign season in May starts to bite into rates.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro return.

Short term opportunities may still emerge, and a number of options open to Euro buyers such as rate alerts, automatic buy orders and ‘hedging your bets’ are useful avenues to manage your risk and ensure you buy at any peaks which emerge.

These current levels can also be fixed for those who do not need to buy their Euros until a later date. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere.

Euro sellers also feel free to get in contact, and I shall explain how best to ride the expected movements in your favour – if you have time to wait – come May and June. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Euro exchange rates to rise this week? (Tom Holian)

After having a very difficult period over the last few weeks we have seen Sterling gain against the Euro since the middle part of last week.

Later today Bank of England governor Mark Carney will address the markets and the topic will include the ongoing Brexit issue, the impact of a slowdown in China and when the UK is expected return to its inflation target of 2%.

Last week the UK announced that UK inflation rose to 0.5% for year on year compared to the expectation of 0.4% and this is now the highest inflation rate since December 2014. Good news for Sterling.

Tomorrow morning the UK releases both unemployment data as well as average earnings. UK unemployment figures have been relatively strong over the last few months but average earnings have been struggling so tomorrow’s data could be mixed for GBPEUR exchange rates.

On Thursday sees the UK publish Retail Sales data and owing to the early Easter break I expect this data to come out very strong which could see Sterling exchange rates improve against all major currencies if my estimate is correct.

Therefore, if you’re selling Sterling it may be worth looking at what happens on Thursday late morning.

On Thursday afternoon the European Central Bank announces its latest interest rate decision and although I don’t expect any change in monetary policy the press conference following the statement will be one to watch.

ECB president Mario Draghi has been relatively bullish recently and with inflation rising marginally in the Eurozone then it could be argued that the recent extension of QE both in December and March is working.

However, the topic of the Brexit is just over 2 months away and at the moment the UK appears undecided and this is what is causing Sterling to remain under pressure. Until this is resolved then expect Sterling exchange rates to struggle. Therefore, any positive move for Sterling could be short-lived.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Alternatively call me directly on 01494-787478 and ask for Tom Holian. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Buying rates for Euros and Dollars repeat rally (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR and GBP/USD exchange rates have seen a repeat performance to the start of March, with buying Euro rates being the stand-out performer showing gains of 3 cents for anyone holding Sterling.

This rally for the Pound has been attributed to the improvements in inflation and retail sales figures resulting from an early Easter, which correlates to a healthy increase in spending activity. Alongside a near resolution in the Tata Steel crisis, this has translated into greater confidence in the Pound.

Similarly the first few weeks of March saw gains for buying rates on Euros and Dollars when UK unemployment fell to 10 year lows at the same time as a recovery in oil prices.

If we are taking March as an example, however, it is likely that the buying rates currently available are set to be short-lived.

Politics takes over in the second half of the month when the flood of economic performance data dwindles to a trickle, and unfortunately the UK is nearing a very uncertain and serious political and economic fork in the road.

The most recent poll by The Economist puts the Remain camp level with the Leave campaign at 39%, with 12% of the population undecided and 10% of those polled likely to abstain from voting.

The EU Referendum is now just over two months away, and we have already been experiencing for a month the kind of market activity which will likely see the Pound weaken as we edge closer to June.

Currency markets rarely enjoy changes to the status quo, and businesses are already moving their funds into the Euro ahead of the Referendum to protect the value of their capital, given that polls are showing the race to be alarmingly close.

The Eurozone has already attracted more investment in the first three months of this year than the entirety of 2015 put together, around €215bn. I have personally been working with a number of businesses at their request to do the same since February.

This rise in demand for the Euro is what has continually been making the single currency a more expensive prospect. With the hit to Cameron’s credibility following the ‘Panama Papers’ scandal, this outflow of capital from the UK, similar to what preceded the Scottish Referendum, will likely continue.

Tuesday is expected to see the Euro regain its recent losses against Sterling with the release of the economic sentiment survey for the EU, which is forecasted to be overwhelmingly positive in the face of this staggering amount of recent foreign investment.

With Monday potentially showing some final opportunities for Euro and Dollar buyers before we enter a difficult two weeks in the run-up to May, I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options available to you in order to maximise your currency return.

I will reply personally before currency markets open again on Monday morning. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and even if you do not require your currency for a few months, there are ways to ‘fix’ rates of exchange for a pre-determined time set by you, or even install automatic buy orders at desired levels set by you to avoid missing out on any realistic opportunities which emerge in the short-term.

A brief description of your situation, and the best number to reach you on tomorrow morning will streamline the process rather than simple email correspondance.

Euro and Dollar sellers can do the same, and I will explain how best to ride the expected movements in your favour to any peaks which emerge within the timeframe you have to complete your transfer.

GBPUSD to reach 1.47 or above by the end of the year? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling exchange rates remained relatively flat yesterday, despite it being the busiest day of the week for UK specific economic news releases.

As expected, all 9 voting members of the Bank of England (BoE) chose to keep interest rates unchanged, and the BoE’s Asset Purchasing Facility (also referred to as Quantitative Easing) will remain at £375bn. Currency markets remained relatively unchanged off the back of these unsurprising announcements, but Sterling exchange rates did weaken slightly during the Bank of England Minutes discussions.

During the BoE Minutes cable (GBPUSD) weakened by half a percentage point to 1.4136, as policy members highlighted the risks to the UK economy and value of the Pound should the UK public opt to leave the European Union. The word ‘uncertainty’ was heard many times as it was revealed that the MPC has debated a ‘Brexits’ impact on the economy many times already, and that it will proceed cautiously around the time of the Referendum on the 23rd of June.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) also highlighted the risks outside of the UK which could affect the UK economy moving forward, such as the ‘question mark over growth prospects in the medium term’ in the US, and the re-balancing of the Chinese economy.

The UK has a very open economy in the sense that it’s affected more than most by outside influences, and should the world’s major economies show signs of a slowdown I expect the knock-on effect to disrupt the UK economy and therefore the Pound’s value. Anyone hoping for further Sterling strength should keep a close eye on global market conditions, and if you would like a run-down of how things are progressing, feel free to contact me directly.

Yesterday afternoon Sterling bulls were given a boost by analysts at Lloyd’s Bank, who have stated that they ‘forecast GBPUSD to move back towards a fair value of around 1.47’ by the end of the year. The pair have been range round between 1.40 – 1.44 for some time now, and should analysts at Lloyd’s be correct it may be better to make any outstanding US Dollar to British Pound conversions sooner rather than later in order to take advantage of the favorable rates. The bank also stated that they foresee the long term support between 1.38 to 1.35 to remain in place, a support level that been in place since 1985.

Economic data releases are thin throughout today’s trading session with Eurozone Trade Balance figures for February and US Industrial Production figures for March being the only releases of note. Neither are expecting to impact exchange rates significantly so I expect market sentiment to continue to be the main driver of Sterling exchange rates today.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving Sterling, it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Will The Pounds Rally Continue? (Daniel Johnson)

Sterling has rallied against most major currency pairings after the release of better than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. CPI is a measure of inflation and is a key barometer as to the health of an economy, a rise is seen as positive. GBP/EUR briefly hit 1.26 and we have seen a slight drop since, currently sitting in the low 1.25s. Whether you are purchasing EUR,AUD,CAD or USD I feel it may best to take advantage of current levels. The key factor in any Sterling trade is the EU referendum, current polls show 52% of the UK population are in favour of a “Brexit”. If the UK were to leave it would be catastrophic for the UK economy, with trade relations put under sever strain which will severely decrease UK exports.

HSBC recently predicted GBP/EUR could hit parity if an exit takes place. Cameron is clearly concerned spending $9.2m on leaflets, which may not have the impact he hopes due to his credibility taking a knock after the “panama papers” release. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) have now cut the UK’s economic growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.9%. Sterling could plunge in value if there is an exit, if you are selling the Pound, procrastination could prove very costly. The safe option is to move before June 23rd.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist.  I specialise in property and commercial trades and I am in a position to undercut high street bank’s exchange rates by up to 5%. If you would like to get in touch for a free quote you can contact me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to hearing from you.

If you would like to find out more about the company I work for please why not visit our website www.currencies.co.uk.    

“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

This is the question that will be posed to the British public on the 23rd June 2016. The polls which got it so badly wrong in 2015 are on different days highlighting both sides a possible winners with no clear winner being determinable at present. The expectation does seem to lean towards the Remain vote rather than the Leave. This analysis is based purely on the fact that voters will be fearful of the unknown and be scared into voting Remain. What we do know is that the rate is likely to drop much further in the coming weeks as investors avoid sterling due to the risk that it will only lose further value.

Lately we have seen a very poor run of form for the UK and the pound with David Cameron coming under immense pressure because of his father’s tax affairs and the way the government is handling the decline of the Steel Industry. Mix in the rising trade deficit and economic indicators pointing towards a slowdown in various areas of the economy and we have all the ingredients to upset sterling exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer involving the pound I would be preparing for further losses in the coming weeks and month. I firmly believe the storm clouds gathering over the UK will get darker and this predicament for the pound will get worse before it gets better. I expect GBPEUR to trade between 1.15-1.30 between now and June. For April to May I expect the range to be 1.20-1.25, May to be 1.18-1.25 and then for June 1.15-1.30. This big swing for June takes account of both the potential outcomes of the Brexit vote, eg a Leave vote would see a sharp devaluing of the currency whilst a Remain vote would see a big spike. I expect GBPUSD to trade between 1.36 and 1.47 for the same period (between now and the Referendum) and GBPAUD 1.60 – 1.90. If you wish to discuss these rates or want predictions on another pair please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

What can I do to protect myself?

To try and navigate such uncertainty there are tools at your disposal to try and help limit your exposure. These are some of the more popular contracts to help manage your currency requirements.

Forward Contract – For a small deposit you can fix current exchange rates up to one year in advance. The rate is fixed throughout and you can draw down the funds at the fixed price when you pay off the deal.

Limit Order – You choose a higher level in the market you wish to buy at eg 1.30 on GBPEUR. Once the level is hit we automatically but for you at the desired level. Exchange rates move every second and can move 3 cents on particularly volatile days, this contract means you don’t miss out if it jumps about quickly.

Stop Loss – This is the opposite to the contract above, you choose a lower level you don’t want to get worse than and if the market drops you do not get worse than that rate. This is a great way to manage the price you receive in a market that is falling.

Trying to predict the currency markets is very difficult but from time to time there are events such as this referendum which do provide a predictable outcome. I firmly believe between now and June the pound will come under selling pressures because of the worries over the referendum and its possible outcome. Yes the rates might rise after but you do need to be rather brave to hang on for that amount of time and in the end there is no guarantee the rate will be higher or lower.

It is clear it is going to be a very uncertain few months so if you have any transfers to consider please keep in touch with us on the blog to keep up to date with the latest news and pound sterling forecast!

If you have any transfers you wish to learn some insight on please email the author Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk. Jonathan is an Associate Director at one of the UK’s leading foreign exchange brokers and has written extensively on the Brexit, being quoted in newspapers and even appearing on BBC News, the story of which he will be more than happy to share with you.

Why has the pound plummeted this morning? (Dayle Littlejohn)

With no economic data releases this morning for the UK, sterling’s loss in value I believe is due to Tata Steel exclaiming they could be closing there plant in Port Talbot.

If this occurs many jobs will be lost and business confidence will fall. Is this one of the first major companies in the UK showing a lack of confidence due to a possible ‘Brexit’?

Leading up to June 23rd I expect the Pound to lose value against all of the major currencies and my predictions are the following:

  • GBPEUR – 1.18-1.20
  • GBPUSD – 1.37 – 1.39

Later this morning the UK are set to release their revised GDP figures. The release it set to be a non event as the prediction is for no change.

If you are looking to buy a foreign currency this year, the currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than the high street banks and other brokerages. I specialise in property purchases and sales. Therefore if you are buying or selling a property this year and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk.

The more information you provide me, the more information I can provide you. Below is a list of what I require: your name, currency pair, brief description of requirement, amount, budget, timescales, telephone number and convenient time to call.