Tag Archives: GBPEUR exchange rates

Will sterling keep up this current trajectory?

Tomorrow is UK Retail Sales and Friday is the latest UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data. Both of these releases could easily spark volatility in the market underlining the importance of keeping up to date with the market. In the last few weeks sterling exchange rates have crept up notably against the Euro but we are at multi year highs against pretty much everything! Can sterling keep on this trajectory?

Well early indications seem to think so with recent poor borrowing economic data being ignored in anticipation of an interest rate at hike at some point in the future. As is so often the case with exchange rate it isn’t just which currency is the best, it is that others are very unpopular! Take the Euro for example, we may still see some QE (Quantitative Easing) in the future. This form of ‘printing money’ is very bad for the currency as by increasing the money supply it effectively dilutes the strength of the currency. The UK used QE many years ago and this is one of the reasons the pound dipped to almost parity with the Euro, imagine the detrimental effect QE in the Eurozone would have on GBPEUR rates!

If you have any need to buy large volumes of foreign exchange getting the best exchange rate is central to making the most of your money. The authors of this blog and I are extremely confident we can undercut other sources like banks and other currency brokers on exchange rates, plus also offer practical assistance in the timing and management of your payments. For a quick rundown of your situation and a comparison why not make contact? We can then have a quick chat at no cost or obligation and you can decide for yourself what is better! After all if you were entirely happy with your current situation you probably wouldn’t have read this far!

Jonathan Watson, jmw@currencies.co.uk

How much higher can sterling go? Important upcoming events for the pound!

Looking ahead is always fraught with difficulties but sometimes it is easier when you know a little more than the average. Just now sterling is at 1.2613 on GBPEUR and 1.7160 on GBPUSD. Other exchange rates are also at multi year highs giving some well deserved relief for anyone transferring money abroad in recent years! I was helping some clients buying property in Europe at 1.10 a few years ago and I remember businesses buying the USD cheering at being able to get 1.50!

Tomorrow we have a very important release for the UK with the latest labour market statistics including the all important Unemployment rate. With Inflation having unexpectedly risen changes in Average earnings will attract slightly more attention, the prospects for GBP strength on the whole seem high.

Thursday is the all important CPI (Consumer Price Index) Inflation data for the Eurozone which will outline just how justified recent ECB (European Central Bank) actions have been in attempting to quell falling inflation or ‘disinflation’. Sterling may therefore make some further gains against a battered Euro.

Priced In? – Markets have probably been pricing in the prospect of a) good UK data and b) bad Eurozone data so anything that comes out worse than expected for the UK and better than expected for the Eurozone could trigger sharp corrections. Movements of up to one cent should not be ruled out depending on just what happens. I would personally be shooting for better rates to buy a foreign currency towards the end of the week (from tomorrow) in anticipation of some positive UK Unemployment data cementing and even lifting current levels.

Should you have further to hold on you can wait until next Friday when we get the first estimate of UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the UK for Q2. I would personally not be surprised to see the rates tick higher on this release although arguably the good news is already in the market. As with the two releases above for me the risk is to the downside, markets expect positive numbers for the UK. Anything to the contrary could trigger sterling losses.

For more information on how to approach your transaction plus an award winning exchange rate when you do, please speak to me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.

Key reasons for not delaying buying sterling

To readers who have a foreign currency to sell and wish to buy sterling I would not hang around too long. The recent dips in your favour today and yesterday should definitely in my opinion be viewed as a good time to sell. The longer term forecast clearly appears to favour the pound over most currencies and whilst exchange rates are not as good as they were some months and years ago, there is a very strong likelihood it will get worse.

If you need to buy the pound soon or in the future it is probably a good idea to consider a forward fix on the rates to help further reduce the uncertainty. The longer term forecast for the pound is that the UK will raise interest rates well ahead of the rest of the US and the ECB which should result in much higher rates in the future. The big questions of course is when exactly this will happen, some have forecast the move this year for the UK, others early 2015.

For more information on the exact price we could offer to you why not make an enquiry direct with me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Can you really afford to ignore the current exchange rate? 1.2521 on GBPEUR, 1.6955 on GBPUSD and 1.8164 on GBPAUD.

The pound has been boosted further by an unexpected turn of events. At the time of writing we are 1.2521 on GBPEUR, 1.6955 on GBPUSD and 1.8164 on GBPAUD. This just goes to show how nothing should ever be taken for granted on exchange rates and how quickly events can turn. You might not be able to predict the future (nor can we), but we aim to ensure clients are prepared for eventualities with expert market commentary and analysis plus an award winning exchange rate.

At home…

Tomorrow is vital for sterling with the latest Bank of England Minutes. Following Mark Carney’s recent comments, could we expect to see an outside chance of a vote for an interest rate hike? Thursday we have Retail Sales figures and Friday PSNB (Public Sector Net Borrowing) data. All in all the pound should remain supported but last month Retail figures and the PSNB data all knocked confidence slightly by coming in lower than expected. Depending on the data tomorrow from the Bank of England it may be that a worsening situation in Iraq alters sentiments towards the end of the week and sterling may lose ground.

I believe the current excellent rates quoted above should not be readily dismissed in the hope of much higher levels. It may be that there is more to lose than gain from holding on and it is often the greedy who get their fingers burnt… For a quick overview of your transaction and assistance moving funds internationally please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Abroad…

Further afield we have the Federal Reserve in the US clarifying their position on a further extension of the ‘taper’. The significantly improved Labour market reports for the US indicate to me that we will see a further $10bn withdrawal and this has probably been priced into GBPUSD and EURUSD already. In the Eurozone there is little to move the market and I expect the Euro to remain on the backfoot as markets still digest the recent ECB moves to cut interest rates.

The Best Exchange Rates?

This website purports to get you the best exchange rates but what does this mean, how exactly do we do this? Let me explain in a nutshell! We…

- Undercut the banks and other sources. Given a fair shot we buy currency live in the market which gives us scope to negotiate a rate more favourable than banks and other sources.

- Proactively manage your FX exposure by offering a range of tools and options to limit risk. We can offer forecasts specific to your exchange to help you better understand the market and which way things could be headed.

 - Focus on customer service. As well as provide the best rates we ensure all payments go through smoothly, promptly and offer useful information on how to navigate international banks.

GBPEUR is 11 cents higher than its low point of 2013, GBPUSD is 20 cents higher than the low point of 2013 and GBPAUD is 35 cents higher than the low point of 2013. The pound is trading at some truly excellent levels and it is all on the back of speculation of when the Bank of England will raise interest rates. The market will often do whatever is necessary to prove everyone wrong. 2 years ago GBPEUR hit 1.2860 before crashing to 1.14 8 months later. Can you really afford to ignore the current exchange rate?

For some support and assistance with your international money exchanges please contact the author Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk, I look forward to hearing from you and assisting with information and facilitating your exchanges.

Jonathan

 

Will sterling rise higher still? When will this happen?

This week we predicted the pound could rise higher and so it has. Improvements in the Unemployment picture have given sterling a leg up against its peers which represents yet more fantastic opportunities for anyone buying a foreign currency with sterling. Assuming the forecasts for GBP strength are right, how high will the pound rise and when will we see the next spikes?

Despite the awareness of problems in the UK’s recent economic surge there appears to be little stopping the pound at present. A suspected housing bubble, problems of low wages and fears of an over reliance on consumer spending have all done little to dent confidence in the pound which seems to be going from strength to strength.The overriding factor is the fact the UK is on an economic upturn well established versus a Eurozone effectively going backwards and a US still reliant on a QE programme. The UK offers an excellent place to invest with the prospect of higher interest rates and a more buoyant economy in 2015.

Next week is a range of data to move the market, all of which should be quite interesting and could provide yet more opportunities for the brave! Wednesday and Friday next week look like the busier days to me. Wednesday we have the Bank of England Minutes form their latest meeting and Friday PSNB (Public Sector Net Borrowing) data. Last month PSNB caused the pound to drop a little so these releases are by no means guarantees you will get more for your money!

Ultimately no one can tell you what is going to happen on the market. However our position as currency market specialists gives us strong insight into what may happen, plus we have the experience and expertise in place to properly manage your exposure to the currency markets. For more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

Sterling hits the big time!

Sterling has hit the big time this year as it shakes off the worst of the last few years and sets sights on the future. The UK’s economic position has improved massively of late and is arguably now one of the worlds leading economies again. Especially when compared to other leading economies and currencies like for example the US and Euro.

There are risks up ahead of course, notably the Scottish Referendum and any further deterioration in the Eurozone economy. On balance we would have to expect sterling to remain well supported and should it manage to avoid the more obvious risks ahead of next year, we could see further strength in the new year as it becomes more apparent the UK’s recovery is underway and the prospect of raising interest rates looms.

Should you have any currency transfers please don’t hesitate to contact us for a forecast on just where the rates could be once your transaction is settled. Getting the best rates through the multiple sources we trade through, we are very well placed to help you maximise any transfers.

 

For more information please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

How will the Euro move after the ECB Interest Rate Decision? (Tom Holian)

This week we have seen a small fall for GBPEUR exchange rates following some very good house price data but also weak construction figures according to the Purchasing Manager’s Index out yesterday.

According to Nationwide UK house prices have reportedly moved a record high moving higher than the pre-credit crunch peak of 2007. However, with construction low this caused the Pound to fall against the single currency. It has been suggested that the Bank of England will be the first major central bank to look at raising interest rates  but I think that will still be sometime away as we have an election next year.

Eurozone Inflation fell in May and and also came in lower than expected at just 0.5%. This is likely to put further pressure on the Euro as inflation is now at its lowest level since 2009.  However, the single currency did strengthen during yesterday’s trading session owing to some better unemployment figures which showed a fall to 11.7%.

The news about the jobs market is good but I still think the ECB will have to cut interest rates at tomorrow’s meeting in an attempt to stop inflation falling further. It could be argued that with GBPEUR rates having hit a 16 month high last week that they were fueled by the speculation that the ECB will cut rates tomorrow so even if some change happens at the meeting it may not move the currency rates as much as expected.

EU GDP figures are due out at 10am this morning and expectation is for 0.2% so anything lower could weaken the Euro. The markets could be waiting to see what happens tomorrow but I do also think this morning’s release will affect the exchange rates today.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Will the ECB Cut Rates this Week? (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR exchange rates hit their highest level not seen since January 2013 last Tuesday but have since dropped off from their recent highs following what I would suspect as short term profit-taking.

With inflation worryingly low in the Eurozone and falling for the past few months the ECB are getting more nervous about what to do to combat the fall. I think they are likely to use some form of monetary policy change on Thursday which could either mean a cut in interest rates or the introduction of Quantitative Easing.

The problem with both changes means that if either happens we are likely to see Euro weakness. However, the uncertainty means that if there is no change we could see a bit of Euro strength.

There are two sides to the argument of whether QE could harm the Euro as if this happens it could be perceived as a positive move by the ECB to do something about the ailing economy but it could also be viewed as if they have little choice.

It was also announced earlier that Spain will look at their own stimulus package to help the struggling Spanish economy. Spanish unemployment is currently at 26% and things are not getting better. According to Prime Minister Rajoy ‘the plan will include investments totalling 6.3bn euros, of which 2.67bn will come from the private sector and 3.63bn from the public sector.’

With things over the next few days rather unsettled I think we could see some Sterling strength early in the week against the Euro. 

German inflation data is due at lunchtime tomorrow and if things are low I think the ECB will definitely act on Thursday so expect Sterling strength if the figures are low tomorrow.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

Has the pound reached a peak against its peers?

Unexpected pressure has surfaced recently with mortgage approvals falling and government borrowing increasing. It is no good to see improvements in the economy if coalition plans to reduce the budget deficit are scuppered with increased borrowing!

I think you would still have to favour sterling over most currencies but it may be possible that some of the more recent multi year highs on GBPEUR, GBPUSD and GBPAUD amongst others have now been reached. If you need to buy a foreign currency with sterling it should not be readily assumed rates will just keep climbing as they have done for the last couple of months…

Next week promises to be an eventful one with the start of a new month and a new round of economic data to move markets. I feel it would be a real shame to miss out on what are still some very attractive levels to trade sterling and suggest anyone with an upcoming requirement acknowledges current levels and the vast improvements from last year. Topical elections at home and abroad raise the prospect of longer term political uncertainty which can cause unfavourable currency movements. The Scottish referendum still looks like it could cause some turbulence on exchange rates and is another factor which could weigh on the pound later this year.

Recent and current Sterling strength is based largely on expectations of interest rate hikes in 2015. The scope for weakness before then is as we have seen very real and I do feel anyone with currency requirements later this year may do well to take stock of current levels. Don’t forget you can book funds out on a forward rate which for a small deposit now guarantees your price for the future. For a full overview of your position please email jmw@currencies.co.uk

Busy day for sterling

Today the pound has suffered slightly as Average Earnings figures amongst others showed the Unemployment situation in the UK isn’t quite as buoyant as maybe some investors had hoped. This is good news for anyone who needs to buy the pound as the currency outlook would appear to favour GBP strength, if therefore you can sneak in with a transaction on this spike it is good news.

If you have any transactions to consider selling sterling we could see moves higher soon so do make contact to be kept up to date. For those looking to buy sterling making plans sooner really would appear to be the wisest move since as the economic conditions in the UK improve we should see the pound strengthen.

If you have any transactions to consider please let us know.

 

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