Tag Archives: GBPEUR exchange rates

Sterling back below 1.25 against the Euro (Ben Amrany)

After yesterdays bank of England which gave the pound a real boost after two members of the Bank of England voted for interest rate hikes we have seen the pound lose all of its gains against the Euro, USD and the southern hemisphere currencies. The losses have been on average about 0.3%

The Euro is now below 1.25 the Dollar is in the 1.65′s and this is a massive decline compared to two weeks again when the rates were above 1.26 & 1.70 respectively. The losses today occurred when retail figures showed a decline from the anticipated rate and has hindered the pound.

All data at present is having a real time effect on when the markets predict this first interest rate hike in the UK. The quarterly inflation report a couple of weeks ago hindered the pound when interest rate hike expectations were put back to February 2015 at the earliest now and all UK data which comes out negatively can theoretically push back this data back. We are expecting this dip for the pound to cement itself between 1.24 and 1.2550 over the next couple of weeks.

Tomorrow there is no data to note of out of the UK and we could find a very dull end to the week and with a bank holiday on Monday the markets should be flat until Tuesday. If you are looking at buying or selling you may wish to asses things before the long weekend to make sure you do not get caught out of there are any big movements.

With contracts available like forward buying where you can secure what you need now and pay for it at a later stage this can help you budget to the full and give you the peace of mind to know how far your funds are going. For more information on this or any other part of the service we offer please do feel free to contact myselfBen Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk 

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

 

Sterling weakened so now are the best rates to sell Euros & Dollars to buy the Pound (Ben Amrany)

The pound has had a very bad day weakening significantly against most of the majors. Comments from the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney saw the pound fall from highs of  1.2632 to a low of 1.2468 against the Euro. The Dollar was a similar theme falling from 1.6843 down to 1.6685 and some the biggest losses were against the southern hemisphere currency with over a 1% drop against the Australian & New Zealand Dollar along with the Rand.

Have the wheels come off for sterling exchange rates? 

The Quarterly Inflation Report by the Bank of England dampened the hopes of any future interest rate rises in the UK as markets are now expecting that first rate to be no earlier than February 2015 while prior to the report we were expecting a rate hike as early as November. The report also slashed its wage growth forecast from 2.5% to 1.25% That forecast comes as official figures showed average wages excluding bonuses grew by 0.6%

Wage increase is one of the biggest concerns for the BoE before raising these interest rates. Carney’s also commented that the value of the pound has been to high and it has been effecting UK businesses and their exports of late.  So I ask. is this the start of the decline after we have witnesses really good gains in the last year. Nothing continues to go up for ever and this Friday the GDP figures will give us a good indication if the pound can recover today’s losses.

We expect to see growth for the UK economy but the key for the pound will be determined by whether growth is above or below 0.8% for the quarter and 3.1% for year on year.

If below forecasts we may see the pounds trend from today continue and a target of 1.2450 may occur so you may be wise to secure your funds before this key release. GDP is one of the biggest factors that affect the pounds movements and while we are still trading at very attractive levels now may be a wise move to act and secure your funds.

if you are looking at buying or selling the pound please feel free to email myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk and I will introduce myself and the service we can offer a little more formally. Rates can be up to 4% better than the banks and we will help youtry and time your exchange.

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

 

Tomorrow is the most important day for the pound so far this month

Tomorrow is a vital day for sterling exchange rates. 

We expect a further decline in the Unemployment rate , sterling may find a lift on the back of continued improvement in the number of people in work. Also released at this time is the Claimant count which measures the number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance. Changes in the rates of Earning and Wage growth is bound to attract attention too since concerns remains about the extent to which improvements in the economy are being reflected in better wages for workers. There is fair scope for sterling strength and weakness therefore as the different elements of the ‘Unemployment’ data are released.

To really maximise this event you might want to put a ‘Limit’ or Stop Loss order into the market, this guarantees your rate once the price is hit. With such quick turns on the exchange rate this is the best way to maximise your transaction. Have you made provisions for volatility today? Are you concerned that your bank or broker might not quite be getting you the ‘best deal?’. Email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk and let me see if I can help out.

Key Data for Wednesday – Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report 10.30 am. Once the labour data has hit home there is a only a small window within which to assess the situation before the Bank of England report of key economic topics and we have a speech by Mark Carney. Sterling has soared this summer on expectations the Bank will raise the interest rate sooner than expected but I feel too much has been placed on these comments. Sterling strength might be good if you are buying a new home in France or paying Invoices from Germany but it has a detrimental effect on UK business as they lose their competitive advantage. Lately many UK business have grabbed headlines bemoaning the strong pound and the millions wiped off in profits. I will be watching for any comments on the detrimental effects of a strong pound, the recent worse data for the UK – lower GDP plus a declining rate of growth in the Industrial and Manufacturing sectors all points to slightly worse prospects for the UK economy up ahead and therefore a slightly weaker pound.

Thursday will see Euro data take stage – Important if you are tracking GBPEUR. At 08.00 am German GDP is released which will be very interesting since German Industrial Output posted a shock fall last month. The famous German ZEW survey today showed investor sentiment at a 20 month low for Eurozone’s biggest economy. With Inflation and Growth concerns rife the data at 10.00 am – Eurozone GDP and Eurozone Inflation all become very significant in determining just where rates will head.

Last year GBPEUR dropped to 1.14 and GBPUSD 1.48. On both currency pairing and pretty much all other sterling rates we are around 10% higher than last year. There are never any guarantees on the market but tomorrow’s data looks like it could easily affect current levels, what do you need to do?

If you need to make an exchange understanding what moves the market is key to getting the best deal. We offer a personal, proactive service to help you get the most from the market as well as offer an award winning exchange rate when you do trade. To compare notes or run through all of your options please feel free to contact me Jonathan Watson directly using jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

How Secure is Sterling’s Meteoric Rise in 2014?

Sterling has clearly risen sharply this year representing an excellent time to buy a foreign currency with the pound. There are however a number of factors to beware of which could easily see the pound drop in the coming months. If you need to make a foreign payment understanding the market and how to go about getting the best deals is central to enhancing your advantage.

Ultimately no one knows what will happen in the future but like weather forecasters, we can look ahead and based on what we know make certain calls as to what may or may not happen. Tomorrow is the Bank of England Interest Rate decision meeting where we could see some movement on GBP rates. No change is expected but the release by nature can be volatile as investors seek to second guess the market. Perhaps more interesting is the ECB decision and Press Conference afterwards at 13.30. Recent Eurozone data has not been particularly encouraging and any comments by Mario on this could cause some EUR movements affecting GBPEUR positioning

If you need to make a currency exchange please email me Jonathan jmw@currencies.co.uk for information to help you get the best deals.

Have sterling gains stalled? Three big reasons to think twice…

There is no shortage of the positive things for the pound at present. It is the only major currency genuinely on course to raise interest rates and the British economy is predicted to be one of the fastest growing in the next few months. Unemployment is falling and the economy is growing, the green shoots have for some finally sprouted…

A quick look up ahead however shows that the path to a stronger pound isn’t quite as clear as some forecasters seem to believe. There are three key elements to look out for.

 - Political Uncertainty - 

Usually ahead of an election a currency weakens. The Scottish Referendum in September still has many unanswered questions and it would be foolish to discount late swing votes. Markets can be fearful creatures and if sentiments turn negative the pound may lose value. Next year is the General Election which could provide plenty of opportunities for GBP weakness. Even though the Bank of England is independent from the Government will rising interest rates be an election topic? Already portrayed as the ‘mean’ party, the Tories may struggle to maintain their economic plan under a new coalition and Labour’s economic plans look very anti – business…

There is also the prospect of the UK leaving the EU, again it is the uncertainty these events present which could undermine GBP gains…

- Rising Interest Rates may derail the economy -

Rising Interest rates could do more harm than good! Property prices are principally rising in the South East, mainly London and this is skewing the market. Other areas of the country are actually seeing prices fall or remain stagnant. Rising Interest rates may serve to undermine recovery in the housing market across the housing market making it more difficult for purchasers to get a mortgage and reducing the disposable income (that is spent in the wider economy helping for example Retail sales) those with mortgages have.

Many commentators have pointed out we are in a new ‘low interest rate’ economy globally. There are drawbacks to this but perhaps the UK needs to be stronger on its feet before interest rates rise.

- A strong pound can be bad for exports and growth prospects -

There have been some of the UK’s biggest companies this week highlighting the detrimental effect the strong pound is having on their profits. Rising interest rates may serve to strengthen the pound further making UK manufacturing and service less competitive in the global economy.

All in all the pound is at multi year highs against many currencies. Assuming rates will remain where they are is a foolish assumption and anyone considering moving larger volumes of currency should note the difference even 1 cent can make on a big volume of money.

If you need to buy or sell a foreign currency we can offer assistance  understanding the market and getting the best rates on your deals. We are a group of specialist currency brokers writing this blog for your help. Please feel free to contact me Jonathan directly to learn more.

jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Will sterling keep up this current trajectory?

Tomorrow is UK Retail Sales and Friday is the latest UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data. Both of these releases could easily spark volatility in the market underlining the importance of keeping up to date with the market. In the last few weeks sterling exchange rates have crept up notably against the Euro but we are at multi year highs against pretty much everything! Can sterling keep on this trajectory?

Well early indications seem to think so with recent poor borrowing economic data being ignored in anticipation of an interest rate at hike at some point in the future. As is so often the case with exchange rate it isn’t just which currency is the best, it is that others are very unpopular! Take the Euro for example, we may still see some QE (Quantitative Easing) in the future. This form of ‘printing money’ is very bad for the currency as by increasing the money supply it effectively dilutes the strength of the currency. The UK used QE many years ago and this is one of the reasons the pound dipped to almost parity with the Euro, imagine the detrimental effect QE in the Eurozone would have on GBPEUR rates!

If you have any need to buy large volumes of foreign exchange getting the best exchange rate is central to making the most of your money. The authors of this blog and I are extremely confident we can undercut other sources like banks and other currency brokers on exchange rates, plus also offer practical assistance in the timing and management of your payments. For a quick rundown of your situation and a comparison why not make contact? We can then have a quick chat at no cost or obligation and you can decide for yourself what is better! After all if you were entirely happy with your current situation you probably wouldn’t have read this far!

Jonathan Watson, jmw@currencies.co.uk

How much higher can sterling go? Important upcoming events for the pound!

Looking ahead is always fraught with difficulties but sometimes it is easier when you know a little more than the average. Just now sterling is at 1.2613 on GBPEUR and 1.7160 on GBPUSD. Other exchange rates are also at multi year highs giving some well deserved relief for anyone transferring money abroad in recent years! I was helping some clients buying property in Europe at 1.10 a few years ago and I remember businesses buying the USD cheering at being able to get 1.50!

Tomorrow we have a very important release for the UK with the latest labour market statistics including the all important Unemployment rate. With Inflation having unexpectedly risen changes in Average earnings will attract slightly more attention, the prospects for GBP strength on the whole seem high.

Thursday is the all important CPI (Consumer Price Index) Inflation data for the Eurozone which will outline just how justified recent ECB (European Central Bank) actions have been in attempting to quell falling inflation or ‘disinflation’. Sterling may therefore make some further gains against a battered Euro.

Priced In? – Markets have probably been pricing in the prospect of a) good UK data and b) bad Eurozone data so anything that comes out worse than expected for the UK and better than expected for the Eurozone could trigger sharp corrections. Movements of up to one cent should not be ruled out depending on just what happens. I would personally be shooting for better rates to buy a foreign currency towards the end of the week (from tomorrow) in anticipation of some positive UK Unemployment data cementing and even lifting current levels.

Should you have further to hold on you can wait until next Friday when we get the first estimate of UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the UK for Q2. I would personally not be surprised to see the rates tick higher on this release although arguably the good news is already in the market. As with the two releases above for me the risk is to the downside, markets expect positive numbers for the UK. Anything to the contrary could trigger sterling losses.

For more information on how to approach your transaction plus an award winning exchange rate when you do, please speak to me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.

Key reasons for not delaying buying sterling

To readers who have a foreign currency to sell and wish to buy sterling I would not hang around too long. The recent dips in your favour today and yesterday should definitely in my opinion be viewed as a good time to sell. The longer term forecast clearly appears to favour the pound over most currencies and whilst exchange rates are not as good as they were some months and years ago, there is a very strong likelihood it will get worse.

If you need to buy the pound soon or in the future it is probably a good idea to consider a forward fix on the rates to help further reduce the uncertainty. The longer term forecast for the pound is that the UK will raise interest rates well ahead of the rest of the US and the ECB which should result in much higher rates in the future. The big questions of course is when exactly this will happen, some have forecast the move this year for the UK, others early 2015.

For more information on the exact price we could offer to you why not make an enquiry direct with me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Can you really afford to ignore the current exchange rate? 1.2521 on GBPEUR, 1.6955 on GBPUSD and 1.8164 on GBPAUD.

The pound has been boosted further by an unexpected turn of events. At the time of writing we are 1.2521 on GBPEUR, 1.6955 on GBPUSD and 1.8164 on GBPAUD. This just goes to show how nothing should ever be taken for granted on exchange rates and how quickly events can turn. You might not be able to predict the future (nor can we), but we aim to ensure clients are prepared for eventualities with expert market commentary and analysis plus an award winning exchange rate.

At home…

Tomorrow is vital for sterling with the latest Bank of England Minutes. Following Mark Carney’s recent comments, could we expect to see an outside chance of a vote for an interest rate hike? Thursday we have Retail Sales figures and Friday PSNB (Public Sector Net Borrowing) data. All in all the pound should remain supported but last month Retail figures and the PSNB data all knocked confidence slightly by coming in lower than expected. Depending on the data tomorrow from the Bank of England it may be that a worsening situation in Iraq alters sentiments towards the end of the week and sterling may lose ground.

I believe the current excellent rates quoted above should not be readily dismissed in the hope of much higher levels. It may be that there is more to lose than gain from holding on and it is often the greedy who get their fingers burnt… For a quick overview of your transaction and assistance moving funds internationally please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Abroad…

Further afield we have the Federal Reserve in the US clarifying their position on a further extension of the ‘taper’. The significantly improved Labour market reports for the US indicate to me that we will see a further $10bn withdrawal and this has probably been priced into GBPUSD and EURUSD already. In the Eurozone there is little to move the market and I expect the Euro to remain on the backfoot as markets still digest the recent ECB moves to cut interest rates.

The Best Exchange Rates?

This website purports to get you the best exchange rates but what does this mean, how exactly do we do this? Let me explain in a nutshell! We…

- Undercut the banks and other sources. Given a fair shot we buy currency live in the market which gives us scope to negotiate a rate more favourable than banks and other sources.

- Proactively manage your FX exposure by offering a range of tools and options to limit risk. We can offer forecasts specific to your exchange to help you better understand the market and which way things could be headed.

 - Focus on customer service. As well as provide the best rates we ensure all payments go through smoothly, promptly and offer useful information on how to navigate international banks.

GBPEUR is 11 cents higher than its low point of 2013, GBPUSD is 20 cents higher than the low point of 2013 and GBPAUD is 35 cents higher than the low point of 2013. The pound is trading at some truly excellent levels and it is all on the back of speculation of when the Bank of England will raise interest rates. The market will often do whatever is necessary to prove everyone wrong. 2 years ago GBPEUR hit 1.2860 before crashing to 1.14 8 months later. Can you really afford to ignore the current exchange rate?

For some support and assistance with your international money exchanges please contact the author Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk, I look forward to hearing from you and assisting with information and facilitating your exchanges.

Jonathan

 

Will sterling rise higher still? When will this happen?

This week we predicted the pound could rise higher and so it has. Improvements in the Unemployment picture have given sterling a leg up against its peers which represents yet more fantastic opportunities for anyone buying a foreign currency with sterling. Assuming the forecasts for GBP strength are right, how high will the pound rise and when will we see the next spikes?

Despite the awareness of problems in the UK’s recent economic surge there appears to be little stopping the pound at present. A suspected housing bubble, problems of low wages and fears of an over reliance on consumer spending have all done little to dent confidence in the pound which seems to be going from strength to strength.The overriding factor is the fact the UK is on an economic upturn well established versus a Eurozone effectively going backwards and a US still reliant on a QE programme. The UK offers an excellent place to invest with the prospect of higher interest rates and a more buoyant economy in 2015.

Next week is a range of data to move the market, all of which should be quite interesting and could provide yet more opportunities for the brave! Wednesday and Friday next week look like the busier days to me. Wednesday we have the Bank of England Minutes form their latest meeting and Friday PSNB (Public Sector Net Borrowing) data. Last month PSNB caused the pound to drop a little so these releases are by no means guarantees you will get more for your money!

Ultimately no one can tell you what is going to happen on the market. However our position as currency market specialists gives us strong insight into what may happen, plus we have the experience and expertise in place to properly manage your exposure to the currency markets. For more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

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