Tag Archives: GBP/EUR predictions
Future weakening of the Pound should be a concern. Where next for the Great British Pound (Ben Amrany)
Sterling exchange rates have come under increasing pressure recently due to weak economic data, higher inflation, next to zero growth and the risk to the UK’s credit rating being cut should we fall into a triple dip recession. For those that are hoping that the pound will rise against a basket of currencies you should be very cautious as it seems that not everyone wants the pound to rise!!
Recently Bank of England policy maker Martin Weale came out with comments stating that he feels the pound may need to weaken further ( I hear you saying but how much further can the pound fall?) to help make our exports cheaper and to spur on economic growth.
If you have a currency transfer to make over the next few months then those comments should concern you. You may wish to look at your position sooner rather than later because with the Bank of England appearing comfortable with sterling’s drop I feel that more losses are likely.
If Weale’s comments are not enough to make you think about buying your Euros or Dollars in the near future then looking at what speculators are up to may help you decide.
At present sterling is only second in volume to the YEN for being the most shorted currency. This means that speculators are betting on the pound
continuing to weaken. For the reasons above I would not be surprised to see the pound weaken further to 1.50 against the USD and 1.13 v the Euro over the next month or two.
If you do have an up and coming currency requirements to make over the next few months please feel free to contact me with your contact details and requirement by emailing me at bma@currencies.co.uk. I will offer you a very personal service to help you try and maximise your exchange and you will benefit from our exchange rates which are up to 4% better than the banks. Giving you the information required to help you judge when to exchange your funds is a service that your bank just will not offer.
We have different contract options like forward buying. This can help you minimise your risk to volatile exchange rate fluctuations if you are not in need of the funds for a few months but want the peace of mind on how far your funds will go. Forward buying can give you the peace of mind that your funds will not weaken any more. To find out more about the contract options we offer please feel free to email or call me directly.
Looking ahead to tomorrow
There are always be peaks and troughs for an exchange rate and we may see some short term relief for the pound tomorrow morning at 9.30 when the Bank of England minutes and unemployment figures are released.
If the latest unemployment figures show a fresh fall in joblessness and the minutes of the Bank of England’s MPC meeting suggest no hurry to give the economy any fresh
stimulus we may just see the pound spike and slightly recover. I think that there would only be a small window of opportunity to capitalise on any small spike that may occur as I fully expect the pound to continue its decline over the coming weeks. Being in a position to move should this spike occur may just save you 0.5% if you tim things right.
If you need to buy or sell the pound against any major currency then please do contact me with what your requirement is. If you email me with all your contact details I will fully explain all the options that are available to you. bma@currencies.co.uk
Thank you for reading
Ben Amrany
What now for the Euro? The New Democracy Party (pro Austerity) is in pole position to lead the country forward
It is late on Sunday night here in the UK, there would have been many of you looking on at events in Greece this evening wondering what to make of what has happened in Athens and what it all means for your currency exchange and the Euro going forward from here.
With more than half of Sunday’s votes counted, the centre-right New Democracy Party had 30.1 per cent of the vote in Greece’s second general election in six weeks. That put it about 3.5 per cent ahead of Syriza, a left-wing party that intended to pull out of Greece’s agreements with the EU regarding the country’s debts and drastic spending cuts.
“Greeks have voted to remain in the Euro-zone,” New Democracy leader Antonis Samaris said late Sunday in a televised address. “There will be no doubt about the position of Greece in Europe. There will be no further adventures. This is an important moment for Greece and the rest of Europe. Greece will honour its obligations.”
So if things go to plan Greece will remain in the Euro-zone after Sunday’s parliamentary elections appeared to give a pro-euro, pro-bailout party enough seats in parliament to create a coalition to deal with the southern European nation’s crippling debts.
The result should provide a measure of relief to the European Union and help calm volatile international markets, although the continent’s debt crisis is likely to continue and possibly worsen in the coming months.
I feel going forward that we will see a very brief spike for the Euro over the next day or so. However if you are hoping for the Euro to gain 5-6% on the back of these elections I think you may be disappointed.
The EU and the International Monetary Fund want Greece to carry out the terms of a stiff austerity program that it agreed to in return for billions of Euros in emergency financial assistance. While stating that it would honour this commitment, New Democracy also has indicated its wants the process slowed down. German Chancellor Angela Merkel though indicated she was prepared to consider giving Greece more time to gets its house in order, although she has refused to discuss watering down the agreement.
There are still many questions to be answered and this will leave much uncertainty for global financial markets. The uncertainty is what should make you very cautious over the coming weeks if you have a Euro exchange to make. If you are buying or selling the Euro and if you are at trading levels that you feel are acceptable I would recommend forward buying or trading on spot to make sure you do not get caught out by volatile exchange rate fluctuations after all it is still very hard to call what lays around the corner for the EURO.
If you have a currency exchange to buy or sell any of the major currencies events in Europe will have an effect on your currency conversion. If you would like to speak with me about your own requirement I will be happy to discuss what the implications of Europe can have on your exchange. We offer a very bespoke and personal service while achieving significantly better rates than that of your high street bank. Please do email me at bma@currencies.co.uk and I will contact you to discuss the options that are available to you.
Ben Amrany
