Tag Archives: GBPEUR

Will the pound continue to fall? (Dayle Littlejohn)

If you are buying or selling a substantial amount of sterling for the first time, this article outlines the factors impacting the sterling’s value and how to save money when you come to converting.

Throughout 2016, it is likely that anytime you switched on the news, Brexit talks were stealing the headlines. Since the turn of the year, the pound has declined for two main reasons;

The first is that at any point, the Supreme Court will give their verdict to whether UK Prime Minister Theresa May has the power to start the process of leaving the EU, or if she needs to obtain Parliamentary approval. The outstanding decision is sending jitters through investors, which means they are selling their sterling and purchasing safer currencies.

Secondly, during UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s press conference on Sunday 8th January, she stated that she aims to tackle immigration and leaving the single market looks inevitable. The consensus on the market is that anytime a key figure within the UK exclaims that the UK will leave the single market, sterling exchange rates fall.
The week ahead

The Supreme Court decision is looming but they have not released an exact date. Personally, I believe the Supreme Court will rule Mrs May needs Parliamentary approval and therefore this decision will not have a negative impact on the pound. However, if I am wrong and this is the first shock of 2017 the pound could fall like a stone.

On Tuesday 17th January 2017, Mrs May will address the UK public, and no surprise the agenda is Brexit. If she continues with a similar stance to last Sunday, sterling is set to lose further value, which means buying a foreign currency becomes more expensive.

It’s key to note that the Commons Brexit Committee made up of MPs, announced at the end of the trading week that Mrs May must confirm whether she wants in or out of the single market and the Customs Union before Brexit talks begin. Could she give direction this Tuesday?

On a weekly basis, the UK release economic data that shows how well the economy is performing. This week the UK are set to release:

Inflation – Tuesday 17th January 2017

Unemployment and Average earnings – Wednesday 18th January 2017

Retail Sales – Friday 20th January 2017

Since the start of the year economic data has been impressive for the UK. Out of the 13 data releases that tend to have a major impact on sterling 11 releases have exceeded expectations and only trade numbers have shown a decline. This shows to me that economic data is living in the shadows of politics. The economic data releases could cause small spikes for sterling, however, the direction of exchange rates will be dictated by Brexit news.

To summarise if you are buying or foreign currency short-term, there could be spikes in the market to take advantage of, however, the safe option is to convert sooner rather than later. If you are buying the pound I would recommend outlining your requirements to me so I can keep you up to date and then sit back and wait to see how far the pound falls.

When buying or selling the pound you also need to analyse the other currency you are converting before making your final decision. Feel free to email me the currency pair you are converting (GBPEUR, GBPUSD, GBPAUD, etc) the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and I will provide you with further information drl@currencies.co.uk.

How to save money

The company I work for helps the client understand the factors that are influencing the currency pair they are trading, whilst having the ability to offer exchange rates that the client wouldn’t be able to receive with their own bank. We have been in business for over 17 years and on a daily basis save clients money on currency transfers. Feel free to drop me an email or alternatively you can call the trading floor Monday morning and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn to discuss your options 0044 1494 787 478.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend and I look forward to speaking with you Monday morning.

** People are deal with on a daily basis are sole traders, financial directors, property buyers and sellers **

Sterling continues to fall following Theresa May’s comments (Daniel Johnson)

Sterling has a rough start to the week

Following Theresa May’s comments this weekend, where she hinted toward a hard Brexit sterling has fallen heavily with GBP/EUR sitting in the 1.14s and GBP/USD in the 1.21s.  She stated during a Sky News interview that she would consider giving up free trade for control over immigration.

I think more important however will be the ruling in regards to the supreme court judgement on whether parliament will get to vote on the triggering of article 50. If parliament do get the vote it is probable there will be a soft brexit, with temporary trade deals in place while negotiations take place. This eventuality should cause the pound to rise.

If parliament do not get the vote a hard brexit becomes the probable outcome and this could result in trade negotiations being troublesome and elongated. Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK ambassador to the EU recently resigned  due to what he considers to be unrealistic estimations on how long brexit will take. The current target for a full exit from the EU is two years, Sir Ivan thinks it will be nearer ten.

I would expect the the supreme court ruling to come through between the 12th-17th January, keep your eyes on developments on the case as this could have major implications on the value of the pound.

UK data releases that could effect Sterling short term

Tomorrow will see the release of UK manufacturing data where I would expect to see an improvement which could cause some respite for the pound. GDP figures are also released on Wednesday and I would again expect a slight improvement. Please be aware however that any news from the supreme court judgement is likely to outweigh these data releases.

If you have a currency requirement I will happily assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will provide a comparison against your current provider and also formulate a trading strategy to suit your individual needs. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with a broker from Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over sixteen years with the highest credit rating and one which is also registered with the FCA. Please do get in touch by e-mailing me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading our blogs.

Sterling strength expected later in the week, Euro and Dollar sellers should be looking to act soon (Joshua Privett)

It’s been a fairly uneventful beginning to the year on the currency markets, with Sterling exchange rates against the Euro and the US Dollar moving heavily each day, yet by close of business we’ve tended to find ourselves back where we started.

GBP/EUR has reamined around the 1.16/17 mark, GBP/USD has held quite firmly at 1.23, and GBP/AUD around the 1.68-1.70 range.

This exchange rate behaviour is indicative of a market awaiting some very important news.

I hate to flog a dead horse for our regular readers by continuing to address the upcoming Supreme Court decision and the implications this will have for the Pound, but it is incredibly pertinent to anyone planning to buy or sell Sterling for a foreign currency. Not just over the next few weeks as we await the verdict, but over the next few months in the run up to the triggering of Article 50.

For those who are not aware, the Supreme Court is currently ruling an appeal of November’s Judicial Court decision to allow Parliament to vote on the enactment of Article 50 – the formal process to leave the EU.

As in November, financial markets should react well to the decision to involve Parliament in the Brexit process. The Pound’s value increases with investors gaining confidence that Parliament’s involvement will mean the Brexit process will be delayed to some degree due to cumbersome Parliamentary procedures, and that this increases the likelihood of a softer exit from the EU.

You can also argue that Parliament’s involvement means that the aims of the negotiations and how well they will progress will be much more public. This permits greater confidence to invest in the Pound as investors and financial institutions will have a greater understanding of what trajectory the UK economy, and therefore the Pound, will be taking in the medium-term.

The expectation is that the Supreme Court will uphold the initial conclusion of the Judicial court a few months ago. Based on November’s currency movements, this will likely cause 1-2 cent improvements on GBP/EUR, similar gains on GBP/USD, and likely larger positive spikes on GBP/AUD due to the volatile nature of the currency pairing.

The verdict is expected between the 12-17th of January, so if you are a Euro or Dollar seller, it may be wise to move ahead of this coming Thursday to avoid being caught up in any sudden and unannounced spikes in Sterling value when we are told the decision.

Furthermore, on Wednesday data sets for manufacturing and industrial sectors of the UK economy, and a first look at growth for the final quarter of last year, will be released in the morning for markets to react to.

The manufacturing sector has enjoyed a resurgence following the sudden devaluation of the Pound in June, and growth in the UK economy has shown on mutliple occasions since the June vote to Leave the EU to be resiliant to the economic shocks this had entailed.

So, in short, very good news is expected to be provided to Euro, US Dollar and Australian Dollar buyers in the short-term. Two major events are expected to make your transfers more profitable, which is why anyone looking to conduct a Sterling purchase, even over the next few months, should look to how you can secure these still historically favourable exchange rates before Wednesday.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in touch with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current exchange rates can be fixed in place for anyone wanting to prebook their currency transfer later in the year at current exchange rates.

Exchange rates for buying Euros and Dollars showing mixed results to begin the New Year (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has begun the year without much clear direction following what had been quite a difficult festive period for buying Euro and Dollar exchange rates.

GBP/EUR and GBP/USD have shown some gains whilst anyone with an Australian Dollar interest has suffered the most so far in 2017, with a loss of 3 cents on GBP/AUD recorded within the past 48 hours.

Frankly, this is a return to some normality on currency markets. With the Brexit dominating headlines for the final 6 months of last year, markets were remaining flat until any little piece or morsel of news came our regarding the mechanics of the Leave process, and many other events were largely ignored.

Some are now arguing that markets have adjusted to this new ‘reality’ of a long and pro-longed Brexit negotiation and are beginning to return to some semblance of normality. Rates to buy Euros, US Dollars and Australian Dollars now seem to be paying attention to daily releases in economic performance data which had largely been ignored for the last 6 months when determining the value of each major currency.

For example Sterling enjoyed strength to begin the year when performance figures for our manufacturing sector were through the roof (as a cheaper Pound encourages buyers to come to the UK’s shores), and the Euro benefited from similarly positive inflation figures released at 10:00 this morning. This explains the roller-coaster on GBP/EUR over the past few days as both have gained value against the other.

A medium-term look at Sterling exchange rates still sees potential opportunity between the 12-17 January when it is expected the Supreme Court decision on Parliament’s role in leaving the EU will be decided.

The heavy expectation is for the Supreme Court to uphold the Judicial Court’s decision in November to allow Parliament the vote on triggering Article 50, which contributed to the strong Sterling boost that month – and is why most major financial institutions expect a mirroring of this Sterling strength in January.

In the short-term, we can look to economic data for clues on forecasts for Sterling Euro, Sterling US Dollar and Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rates.

The key piece of data this week will be Friday’s unemployment figures in the US, which will send ripples throughout the financial markets, and if last month’s was anything to go by, will likely present further opportunities for Euro and Australian Dollar buyers alike.

With a positive short-term view for anyone buying a foreign currency, and the anticipation of medium term gains, anyone looking to sell Euros, US Dollars or Australian Dollars will be wise to look at their options to protect an upcoming transfer into Sterling from becoming more expensive.

Anyone with a foreign currency purchase later on in the year would be best placed to monitor the markets over the next few weeks, and if you do not wish to leave yourself exposed in the run up to the triggering of Article 50, can secure an exchange rate there and then if any tempting opportunities emerge, whether for an immediate transfer or one planned for the future – it is a simple process to pre-book your currency using the exchange rates available that day.

I strongly recommend that if you have a planned transfer either to buy or sell Euros or Dollars before April this year, you should contact me overnight whilst markets are quiet on jjp@currencies.co.uk. I will respond as soon as I am able to discuss a strategy for your transfer to ensure tempting levels are seized quickly, and that your upcoming transfer is protected from any prospective dips in the marketplace.

Furthermore, I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation should save you thousands on an upcoming transfer. I am happy to provide a quote for your transfer to demonstrate this.

I have had quite a few new clients recently who said their previous broker suggested they had to move immediately with the formal Brexit proceedings looming, but in this market, as has been proven in recent months, there are still heavy opportunities for foreign currency buyers even in the next few weeks.

 

 

What to expect for sterling exchange rates early 2017 (Dayle Littlejohn)

What you need to know about Brexit and the impact of Brexit on exchange rates

Throughout 2016 ‘Brexit’ was the main talking point for sterling exchange rates and I expect this trend to continue for at least the next two quarters.

When the UK public voted out of the European Union the consensus was that the UK would also be leaving the single market.

However the High Court ruled UK Prime Minister Theresa May does not have the power to invoke Article50 and therefore leave the single market.

The Prime Minister disagreed with the High Court ruling and last month took her case to the Supreme Court in hope that the decision will be overturned. The verdict is set to be released some point this month.

It’s important to realise Brexit is complex, however if you are buying or selling pounds in the upcoming months we have seen trends over the last 7 months that should help your decision making.

When the UK voted out of the EU in June and as a country we were under the impression we would exit the single market GBPEUR and GBPUSD plummeted to lows of 1.10 and 1.2190.

As soon as the High Court ruled that an exit from the single market will occur once Theresa May has approval from Government (very unlikely this would materialise) GBPEUR and GBPUSD increased to highs of 1.2015 and 1.2750.

Looking ahead to the Supreme Court decision this month, I believe there are two outcomes to exchange rates once we hear the verdict.

If the Supreme Court rule in favour of the High Court an exit from the single market becomes unlikely and therefore the pound makes gains against all of the major currencies.

If the Supreme Court overturn the High Court an exit from the single market could occur as early as March and therefore the pound plummets to lows we saw only 3 months ago.

How can I help you?

The currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients rates of exchange that they won’t be able to achieve by using their own bank.

Property purchases and sales are my area of expertise, therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale abroad, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and to get an understanding of how we can save you as much money as possible.

When purchasing currency it’s crucial to analyse both the currencies you will be trading, as your 2nd currency will also have an impact on the pair.

Feel free to email me the currency pair you are converting (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

GBPEUR forecast for the next 3 months (Dayle Littlejohn)

Since the start of November GBPEUR central exchange rates have increased from 1.1060 to 1.1950. Therefore a €200,000 purchase is now £13,467 cheaper.

The reason for the rise is that the High court in the UK ruled that Prime Minister Theresa May does not have the power to invoke Article50 and therefore start the process of leaving the EU. This means that investment has re entered the UK as remaining part of the single market is now an option.

As for the Eurozone the Central Bank have announced they will be extending the Quantitative easing program and will be therefore injecting another 540 billion euros into the economy to stimulate growth.

This week the Federal Reserve (US central bank) raised interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% and analysts at ING are predicting EURUSD exchange rates could reach parity. If this occurs I expect the pound will then make further gains against the euro and GBPEUR exchange rates will finish the year in the low 1.20s.

Looking ahead to next year the major talking point will be the Supreme Court decision in January. If the Supreme Court rule in favour of the High Court I would expect to see the pound remain buoyant at levels we have become accustom to throughout December. However if the Supreme Court overturn the High Court, I expect the pound to crash as an exit from the single market will be on the horizon.

The problem euro buyers and sellers have is that it’s very difficult to predict the Supreme Courts verdict! 

If you are buying or selling euros in the upcoming months and want to achieve rates of exchange that are better than your bank, whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me with your requirements drl@currencies.co.uk or call the trading floor Monday morning on 0044 1494 787478 and ask for Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are trading a currency pair that I have not covered, feel free to email me with the pair (GBPUSD, GBPAUD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

 

Pound sees tentative rises for buying Euros and Dollars ahead of the thinner trading of the Christmas period (Joshua Privett)

Buying Euro, USD and Australian Dollar exchange rates have shown a noticeable uptake ahead of the Christmas period with rates above the 1.19 level on GBP/EUR, and above 1.70 on GBP/AUD being realized ahead of markets closing for the weekend.

The gains against the Euro and Australian Dollar in particular this week were due to a lower demand for these currencies which sucked away some of their recent, and frankly over-inflated, value. The clear driving force behind this movement is attributed to the historic rise in interest rates in the US, only its second time the FED have been do so since the financial crisis.

The USD/EUR currency pairing is the most heavily traded in the world – frankly because they are the two most widely used currencies globally. So as a rule of thumb, due to the large amounts of transfers and exchanges concentrated between the pair, when one of the two currencies suddenly gets a large boost in demand, as we saw this week, the other loses value through a corresponding slackening in demand. This is why GBP/EUR briefly managed to maintain its vantage point above the 1.19 level.

The interest rate on the Australian Dollar is at record lows but still much higher than elsewhere at 1.5%, compared to the UK’s at 0.25% as an unfortunate example. However, it is traditionally seen as an unstable currency due to its links to the commodities market, so when you have a safe-haven currency which raises its base interest rate rate, investors like to opt for this safer option, and the sell-off of Aussies for US Dollars is why USD/AUD gained today, as well as GBP/AUD – tipping over the 1.70 level for the second time this week.

Moving forward however, Euro and Dollar buyers have the phenomenon of profit taking to deal with as unusual end of year market forces take hold of exchange rates over the next few weeks.

At the close of the year, and what a year it has been, traders have to consolidate their profits in a stable currency for the rough 2-week period when they are away from their desks. This protects their capital from any adverse movements in what are normally ‘safe-haven’ currencies, so that when they come back to the desks the amount of capital they are managing hasn’t been worryingly eaten into. Of course the Pound is anything but stable at the moment and will likely suffer in the sell-off that ensues.

As such anyone with a buying Euro or Dollar requirement may be wise to move sooner rather than later to avoid the hefty amount of risk which should be piled onto Sterling in the very near term.

Since Trump became President in November, Euro buyers have gained over 11 cents in the marketplace for GBP/EUR and 10 cents on GBP/AUD. Meaning that in real terms on a £100,000 transfer buyers have gained an additional €11,000 or $10,000 in the space of 6 weeks. Understandably, the popular option at the moment is to consolidate those gains.

The turn of the New Year has many forks in the UK and therefore the Pound between January and March which are difficult to account for ahead of time, and markets will be factoring this in to the price of Sterling moving forward which could end up being expensive for anyone with a planned Euro or Dollar based obligation to meet in the New Year.

Sterling buyers of course may consider the opposite and play the currency markets by ear as we edge closer to the Christmas period to try at catch the market at any peaks which emerge.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and a foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk over the weekend in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.

Rollercoaster day for Sterling points to heavy ceiling for buying Euro and Dollar exchange rates (Joshua Privett)

Today buying Euro rates breached fresh 5 month highs in addition to more attractive levels for Australian Dollar buyers following the historic interest rate decision last night across the Atlantic in the US.

This was only their second rise in interest rates in over a decade. In the world’s largest economy, there was certainly going to be financial ripples as a result.

The obvious and direct result was that for anyone holding Sterling the Dollar become more expensive following the rate hike announcement.

But why did the Euro and Austrlian Dollar take a bit of a dive?

The USD/EUR currency pairing is the most heavily traded in the world – frankly because they are the two most widely used currencies globally. So as a rule of thumb, due to the large amounts of transactions concentrated between the two, when one of the two currencies suddenly gets a large boost in demand, as we saw today, the other loses value through decreased demand. This is why GBP/EUR briefly breached 1.20 earlier today as a secondary effect of the hike.

The gains against the Australian Dollar similarly were due to a lower demand for AUD which sucked away some of its recent, and frankly over-inflated, value. The interest rate on the Australian Dollar is at record lows but still much higher than elsewhere at 1.5%, compared to the UK’s at 0.25% for example. However, it is traditionally seen as an unstable currency, so when you have a safe-haven currency which raises its base rate, investors like to opt for this safer option, and the sell-off of Aussies for US Dollars is why USD/AUD gained today, as well as GBP/AUD.

However, markets moved back sharply in the afternoon following this move, with GBP/EUR almost losing a full cent as an example.

It seems markets are worried the recent improvements on Sterling will not carry through the volatile end of year trading period. At the end of the year traders and companies wind down their positions in order to consolidate their profits in a stable currency to avoid coming back to their desks in January and finding outside forces have eaten away some of its value.

Of course the Pound is seen as anything but stable at the moment. So the Pound seems set to lose out to major safe havens such as the Dollar, Swiss Franc, and potentially the Euro, however, more exotic currencies should still see it hold its own.

As such anyone with a buying Euro and US Dollar requirement may be wise to move sooner rather than later to avoid the hefty amount of risk which should be piled onto Sterling in the very near term.

Sterling buyers, of course may consider the opposite and play the currency markets by ear as we edge closer to the Christmas period to try at catch the market at any peaks which emerge.

I am well positioned to help anyone with a Sterling based currency requirement manage their exposure to the markets in the run-up to the new year and beyond in order to maximise your currency return in this volatile marketplace. 

Contact me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the particulars of your transfer. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on an upcoming transfer.

You can also contact me on 01494 787 478, and simply as the reception team for Joshua (me) and they will put you through to my line.

 

US Interest Rates up by 0.25% (Daniel Johnson)

Last night saw the US interest rate decision. Janet Yellen the Head of the Federal Reserve indicated at the end of last year there would be as many as four rate hikes during 2016. None of which materialised, she has been branded with a very  cautious reputation. Although the FED is meant to act as a separate entity, I can’t help but think the FED’s caution was due to the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election.

Trump has been very vocal about his wish to raise rates and has gone as far as to threaten Yellen’s position. Rates went up by 0.25% as anticipated so there was little movement on the GBP/EUR. Yellen stated after the hike that there would be up to three hikes this year, this can be taken with a pinch of salt as with most forward guidance.

Many investors left the Euro for US dollar due to safety and of course an increase in return. The dollar rallied against the Euro, but as mentioned earlier there was no great shakes on GBP/EUR.

With all the uncertainty surrounding Brexit trade negotiations and 1.20 seeming to be a resistance barrier if I was buying Euros I would be tempted to take advantage of current levels.

The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If  you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

US interest rate decision looming (Dayle Littlejohn)

This evening the Federal Reserve will release their latest interest rate decision. It was 12 months ago to the day when the FED decided to hike interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5% and on the 12th month anniversary many economists believe a hike is inevitable.

If the US do decide to hike interest rates speculators should flock to the US dollar to make profit from their investments and therefore I expect GBPUSD (cable) to fall.

As for GBPEUR exchange rates, EURUSD is the most commonly traded pair and a general trend is that if one currency strengthens then the other weakens. Therefore we could see the pound make some gains against the euro if Chairlady Janet Yellen decides to hike.

Looking ahead to next year, the Supreme Court decision for the UK could put pressure on the pound and therefore exchange rates could fall. For people purchasing a foreign currency next year the safe option is to purchase upfront. 

If you are buying or selling the pound in the upcoming months UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s March deadline to invoke Article50 should have a major impact on the exchange rates you will receive.  Feel free to email me with the pair (GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPAUD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.