Tag Archives: GBPUSD exhange rates
Pound Sterling Forecast
Since Philip Hammond’s Autumn statement we have seen the Pound rally against the majority of major currencies. Hammond delivered a realistic , non dramatic statement but made it clear he will be attempting to make Britain resilient to any problems that come from a possible exit from the EU.
The pound has hit new buoyancy levels against the majors, but I am not convinced Sterling will continue to rise in value. We have the Supreme Court Judgement which will determine whether the government will get the final say on the triggering of Article 50 which will officially start the process of Britain exiting the EU. Scotland also may get involved, the argument that Scotland will be impacted by the decision bears credibility.
If the decision is that the government will have their say then the possibility of a soft Brexit becomes more likely, this should strengthen the Pound, but will elongate the exit process and Theresa May’s target of leaving the EU by the end of March could well be pushed back. If you are looking to sell the Pound you may wish to consider moving before this event.
Pound to US Dollar exchange rates in detail
The key upcoming event for the US is the interest rate decision on 14th December. Janet Yellen the head of the Federal Reserve indicated at the end of last year that there would be several rate hikes in 2016, but none have yet to materialise. Although the FED is meant to act as a separate entity to the government, the political uncertainty created around who would win the presidency may have been a factor in keeping rates on hold.
Trump has been highly critical of Yellen’s unwillingness to hike rates and has gone as far to threaten her with a more bullish replacement. This could well force Yellen’s hand on December 14th and there is a high probability of a rise in interest rates. If you are buying US Dollars it may be wise to move before the interest rate decision. Keep an eye on Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday as this event is notorious for it’s unpredictability and ability to move markets.
Pound to Euro exchange rates in detail
With current levels close to 1.18, a near two month high it is tempting to perform your trade if you are selling Sterling with the Supreme Court judgement and the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision early in December. Many econimists are predicting that Mario Draghi the Head of the ECB will let slip his plans for future Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially pumping moneyinto an economy to stimulate growth. The ECB is currently injecting €80bn a month into the Eurozone. The current program is due to end in March, but with little change of inflation I would be surprised to see QE not continue. There is also the possibility of an increase in monthly increments. If news does filter through on 8th December this could be what the gambling Sterling seller could have been waiting for.
If you have a currency trade it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital, If you have an experienced broker on board they can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free individual trading strategy. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better almost every competitors rate of exchange. You would be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at firstname.lastname@example.org. Thank you for reading my blog.
Executive Dealer – Foreign Currency Direct PLC
The pound has had an amazing few weeks going from one of the world’s worst performing currencies to one of the world’s best performing currencies. Investors were bracing themselves for a dreadful finish to a bad year for the pound but now the outlook is a little rosier. Of course the performance of the pound will be interesting to you depending on which currency you are buying or selling against the pound. December has some very important global events alongside key news at home, all of which will shape sterling exchange rates. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound soon or in 2017 December is a key month to be making some plans ahead of!
EURO (GBPEUR) – The Italian Constitutional Referendum is on the 4th December and could easily see a big unwinding of Euro positions. This could give Euro buyers with pounds a nice early Christmas present! The Euro may weaken as political uncertainty in the region becomes a concern, the referendum is on constitutional reform but is turning into a vote on the popularity of Matteo Renzi the current Italian PM. On the 8th December the European Central Bank meet to discuss further QE (Quantitative Easing) measures which could also weaken the Euro.
December is shaping up to be a very volatile month for the Euro. The pound has just hit fresh 2 month highs against the Euro but will this last or could it go even go higher? For more information on this particularly uncertain pair please email me Jonathan Watson on email@example.com. We could hit over 1.20 so if you are looking to buy at 1.20 or more please let me know.
US Dollar (GBPUSD) – The fallout from Donald Trumps election victory continues mainly in emerging markets but the ascent of the US dollar seems almost unstoppable. One event that could easily half the strength of the US dollar is December 14th the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. With markets pricing in over 90% probability of the US raising their interest rate to 0.75% global markets will be bracing themselves for this important wide reaching event. Expect further US dollar strength but this might lead to unexpected swings on GBPEUR and GBPUSD and investors move funds in and out of the US dollar.
GBPUSD exchange rates have been some of the most volatile in 2016 moving over 30 cents between the high and the low. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound and US dollar then please contact me to discuss the market in depth and all of your options. Please email firstname.lastname@example.org to get a further breakdown of the outlook and best available rates on this volatile pairing.
I Jonathan Watson have worked as a currency specialist for almost ten years helping business and private clients maximise their currency exchanges. I can offer a full overview of the market and highlight all the important events and your options to help limit your currency exposure. I would be delighted to hear from you and have a chat about our services and how we might help.
To contact Jonathan please email email@example.com or call 01494 787 478. Jonathan has appeared on BBC News discussing the EU Referendum and has been quoted in the FT, The Times The Telegraph and many more.
The Autumn Statement
Tomorrow the Chancellor, Philip Hammond will deliver the autumn Budget. He will outline spending and taxes post-Brexit vote. We will also see forecasts relating to unemployment, growth and inflation. This will give an indication as to policy moving forward.
Inflation will be particularly interesting as the fall in Sterling has caused import prices to rocket which will soon hit the consumer. This is not good news for the UK economy as wage growth will not keep up. Some economists are predicting we could be as high as 2.7% by the end of Q1.
George Osbourne’s pledge to balance the books by the end of his tenure has been scuppered by the referendum vote and the government face a black hole of around £25bn. I would expect there to be a rise in borrowing of £5bn upwards.
Expect drop in growth forecasts and the pound to be hit due to this. If you have currency requirement involving selling Sterling it may be wise to take advantage of current highs.
If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wold like no obligation help, feel free to contact me personally at firstname.lastname@example.org. I can provide you with an individual trading strategy if you provide me with the currency pair you are trading, your time scale and a ball park figure of the size of your trade. I work for Foreign Currency Direct PLC, one of the top brokerages in the Country and it enables us to provide the most competitive rates of exchange. We are registered with the FCA and have been in business for over 16yrs giving clients peace of mind when dealing with their transfers. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to helping you with your currency requirements.
Philip Hammond has no easy task ahead this week as he sets out his plans for the UK economy moving forward. With Brexit still dominating politics and economics there is lots of pressure on the Chancellor to outline an economic plan of Britain that will match the commitments of the new Prime Minister and her colleagues. As always there have been a few leaks in the press over the weekend so let us look at these and work out how it will affect the economy and the pound moving forward.
You don’t have to travel too far in the UK to be reminded of the problems with UK roads. Report suggest over £1bn worth of investment in UK roads with a new expressway between Oxford and Cambridge. Infrastructure spending is to be much welcomed as it will increase efficiency of travel around the UK which will only help business. This should be good for the pound in many respects since it will help the UK economy longer term.
There is a flipside in that government borrowing is at record highs and further borrowing goes against the grain of what previous Tory administrations worked hard to (unsuccessfully) establish. If you look to the last election the Tories gained power on economic prowess promising not to tip the country into massive debts which of course they still did. If the current administration now spends lots it could risk upsetting the financial markets that so strongly backed the Tories last year.
Times have of course changed and given the backdrop of Brexit and a mood that tough austerity just isn’t necessary we could see more leeway from markets. On the whole I would expect the Autumn statement to be cautiously seen as sterling positive but any clients looking to buy or sell this week should be preparing their exchange today to limit their exposure and be preparing for the date.
If you are considering an exchange and wish to talk to a specialist about the relevant issues and ins and outs of transferring money at the very best rates of exchange please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing email@example.com or please fill in the form below.
Buying Euro and Dollar rates largely stable despite record 14 year highs in retail sales figures (Joshua Privett)
Buying Euro rates are up at some new two month highs today following strong retail sales figures in the UK economy. Luckily for Euro sellers this rally on the Pound was muted thanks to comments over in America.
A mixture of cold weather, worries about further price rises due to the Pound’s relatively weak buying power for foreign goods, and potentially some very prudent planning for the Christmas period, has seen the largest single increase in UK retail sales figures in 14 years.
Euro and Dollar buyers alike can lay their thanks squarely at the feet of this news this morning. However, the gains even before the intervention of news from the US were lacklustre compared to how markets would normally react to such news. 1.17 was only briefly reached on GBP/EUR and such staggeringly positive news regarding such a large sector of the UK economy normally translates into sustained gains measured in whole cents.
We have become used to markets operating with this form of tunnel vision towards large political events such as the Brexit over economic data, however, the next big market mover is expected next Wednesday with the Autumn Statement in the UK.
As stated it was events in the US which managed to stop what should have been a larger rally for the Pound against the Euro.
Events in the US tend to have a direct impact on the Euro’s value, as USD/EUR is the most heavily traded currency pairing in the world, so any negative news in one currency tends to translate into the opposite effect in the other.
In this instance, hints from the FED that the US would not be raising rates at their latest December meeting allowed the Euro to benefit from lowered confidence in the Dollar.
Given that even positive news is not registering heavily on the currency markets for the Pound, and with the potential for the Autumn Statement to reflect the sudden and heavy borrowing activity announced by Theresa May’s new government, Euro and Dollar buyers may be wise to seize the recent gains made available with the surprise impact of the Trump Presidency before this is likely tested next week.
I strongly recommend that if you have a Dollar or Euro buying or selling requirement you should contact me on firstname.lastname@example.org whilst markets are largely inactive overnight to discuss a strategy for your transfer and the options open to you to secure any tempting levels which emerge immediately.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchang on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for anyone planning a foreign currency purchase later in the year and wish to secure these current levels ahead of what is expected to be a tumultous period.
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