Tag Archives: GBPUSD exhange rates
Currently sterling is well supported largely due to the strong likelihood of the UK raising interest rates next year. Investors are taking up positions on sterling in anticipation of better returns in the future. 80% of currency transactions are speculative and whilst this is not a topic we deal in for clients , it is a topic that is extremely relevant in determining future market movements for our clients.
Longer term sterling appears bound to increase significantly as the prospect of ultra low interest rates becomes the past. The pound has been flirting with 5 year highs on a trade weighted basis which when you consider interest rates have been at rock bottom for 5 years makes sense.
Since we won’t actually see any actual hike for some time there is certainly a good chance of more GBP weakness but it will be in pockets and not reflective of a greater downward trend. If you are going to need to purchase the pound in the future moving sooner is I believe the best course of action. Please contact me directly for assistance in sourcing the best rates and the optimum peaks to trade on. I assure you of being able to beat the banks and currency brokerages.
Many of my clients selling say Euros and Dollars after a property sale are quibbling over the fact they are trading at multi year lows. I wholly sympathise with these clients because when you do the calculation on the losses selling six figure sums in the last year they are substantial. But if you look further back say at the 10 year and 5 year figures you will see current rates are not so bad.
Take Mr Smith in France for example, who may have purchased there when rates were say 1.50. Imagine buying a 200,000 Euro property at 1.50. This would have cost you 133333.33 GBP. Fast forward ten years and unfortunately he has had to sell to come back to the UK and had to take a hit on the price. He had to sell for 175,000 Euros and was not happy at having lost 25,000 on the price. However he managed to get 1.20 on the rate which means his 175,000 Euros are actually worth 145833.33 GBP. Suddenly it is not such a bad deal and when he considers all the fun times he had there, the whole experience has actually not been too bad!
This just shows the importance of exchange rates when considering overseas transactions. Sterling is at a very good level now which may yet improve. Understanding what is driving exchange rates is critical to getting the best deal. For more information on the forecast for your particular situation please don’t hesitate to contact me directly on firstname.lastname@example.org
Mark Carney and the Bank of England have raised UK growth forecasts helping sterling to gain against a number of currencies. At the same time they have underlined interest rates will be on hold for a long period of time which limits just how much higher we can expect sterling to rise in the coming weeks and months.
If you have a sterling transfer to consider in the coming weeks and months making some plans now at these levels may be a sensible move.
In other news the new Federal Reserve Chairmen Janet Yellen underlined Quantitative Easing in the US is likely to continue until there are significant improvements in the jobs market. And overnight Chinese economic data was much stronger than expected presenting what I believe is a very good opportunity for anyone selling Australian dollars or South African Rand to buy GBP.
I am available to assist in the planning and execution of any international money transfers you need to make (including bringing funds back to the UK or Europe). Unfortunately no one can tell you exactly what will happen on exchange rates but having won awards for our service and rates, we are extremely well placed to offer expertise in managing your currency exposure.
For a breakdown of strategies and options on your particular exchange please call me Jonathan in UK office hours on 01494 787 478 or if you prefer email a quick outline of your position to email@example.com
Tomorrow is a key release for the UK with UK GDP released at 09.30 am. This will detail how the UK economy grew in the final quarter of 2013 and underline just how solid this recovery is. On balance I would be expecting a strong number above the forecast and sterling strength for this release.
I remain of the opinion if you are selling a currency to buy GBP then moving sooner is the best move since it is likely the pound will continue to strengthen as the UK economy improves.
Wednesday is a very important release too with the US Fed decsion on whether or not they will be embarking on more QE ‘tapering’. There is a strong likelihood of a further $10bn in cuts as they have forecast but this may have been priced in to an extent already. If they taper by more or do nothing then there could be a big market reaction not just on the USD but also sterling, Euro and riskier currencies of the EM which have been driven by the Fed’s actions for so long now.
EM stands for Emerging Market’s and represents the BRICS and other emerging markets from recent years. Many of these assets have been buoyed as a result of Chinese economic dominance and cheap money from the US Federal Reserve ‘QE’ (Quantitiative Easing) programme. On this particular issue you can read more from my recent post here.
If you are planning an exchange now or in the future an awareness of all of your options in advance will help you to get better exchange rates. For more information please contact me on firstname.lastname@example.org or call 01494 787 478 and ask t speak with Jonathan.
This morning we have Retail Sales for the UK released at 09.30 am. Retail accounts for a large portion of our GDP and the figures will be closely watched and may well move sterling. Therefore if you have a transaction to consider an awareness of the possible outcome and how to prepare yourself is wise!
The pound is performing very strongly against a range of currencies and this morning’s data is expected to show an improvement of 0.1% in the sector. I have read a few forecasts that predict a lower number which would weaken sterling. I however would expect a higher number as despite some supermarkets reporting lower numbers many other retailers like Next and John Lewis reported very high sales. We also had retailers discounting in the weeks leading up to Christmas and many sales started on Christmas Day.
Another interesting point to consider however is the growth of online sales and the impact of this on the High street. The widely reported increases are of course welcome but are the sales going overseas or is it benefiting the British economy? I have actually emailed the ONS (Office National Statistics) and will let you know!
We can book a price in minutes following your initial contact. We are able to undercut other sources of currency and give you insight into the issues and events affecting your exchange. For more information please contact me on email@example.com or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with Jonathan.
After soaring against most currencies GBP rates have finally settled providing some great opportunities particularly if you are selling Euros. This is presenting a very good opportunity for anyone who needs to, to purchase their sterling. The outlook for 2014 is actually rather positive for the UK which means next year rates should start to climb again.
If you have a transfer to consider I would recommend taking advantage of this lull as 2014 is likely to see more good news for the UK and bad news elsewhere.
Forward guidance by the Bank of England has given us some direction as to just where exactly we can expect rates to be headed in the coming months and years. The UK’s economic recovery looks to be very much on track and I would not expect anything to derail this too significantly in the future. This could of course be famous last words by me! But let us look at the UK compared to the rest of the world. The Eurozone is in a mess and the US are still spending billions on their QE programme.
It is therefore highly likely the UK will be the first to raise interest rates and henceforth will slowly move back to the kind of rates we are used to seeing. If you are selling a foreign currency to buy sterling and are waiting for rates to drop back to the kind of levels we saw earlier this year you could end up very disappointed in the New Year.
Thank you too to all of our readers for their continued support this year. I look forward to continuing to offer up to date news and sentiment on currency markets plus excellent rates of exchange to you all in 2014.
For further information that will help you to make an informed decision on the market plus excellent rates of exchange please feel free to contact me Jonathan directly no firstname.lastname@example.org. Even if you have never done anything like this before a quick email to me could really make your day!
Well folks it is that time of year when we reflect on the year so far and look to next year. As the site suggest we make forecasts and the forecast for sterling in 2014 would have to be positive. What are the possible pitfalls however and against which currencies will see the most gains? And what can you do to maximise your deals with this knowledge?
Watch the US – where is market sentiment?
The UK is leading the pack with the highest growth rates amongst European economies. The US is growing faster but their QE programme is without doubt fuelling these increases. At some point the US will have to turn off the QE taps and there will be a very strong market reaction not just on the US dollar but on the euro, pound almost every other currency.
Market Sentiment is a key determinant of the value of sterling. If investors are confident in the global economic outlook the pound should do well as the UK relies heavily on trade from overseas and the services sector which makes up a large part of our economy, relies on international trade.
The pound is likely to do well in 2014 as the global economic outlook improves and the UK recovery remains on track. Of course there are many pitfalls ahead and so the right type of contract is key. A forward contract is the perfect way to lock in your rate for the future without exposing yourself. If you are unsure about how this works or would like any information on the currency markets it really is worth your while speaking to us. Please feel free to speak to me Jonathan on email@example.com
Pitfalls, highs and lows
I expect the EU referendum and Eurozone debt crisis will be key factors that could affect sterling rates in 2014. The Aussie looks likely to be on the back foot as does the rand so I think sterling will push higher against these currencies. Whilst the early part of the year should see GBPUSD at similair levels, the prospect of QE tapering means GBPUSD should drop to the kind of levels we saw earlier this year. Although if you ask me we are a very long away away from the US economy being ready to give up its QE addiction.
I do hope you have found this information useful and look forward to hearing from you if you would like to learn more about our excellent rates, informative forecasts and friendly helpful service.
The current outlook for the pound is now very much positive with the pound posting some important gains against many different currencies. Of note is GBPCAD, GBPNZD, GBPAUD which are all posting very strong rates well above the the recent averages. With such strong moves in a short period of time it is highly likely there will be lots of profit taking which will pull things back down, this could be a very good opportunity for anyone buying sterling to enter the market.
Positive GDP this morning has cemented sterling’s position against most currencies and with central banks globally threatening looser policy, it is only really the Bank of England which appears to be on a track to tightening policy. This of course could be years away but with other banks looking at more accommodative measures the pound is standing out and it is likely will strengthen further.
The ECB are looking at possible negative deposit rates, the RBA is actively seeking a much weaker currency and the Fed is largely committed to continuing the QE programme until the economic conditions improve of which we have seen not much hope so far.
If you are buying or selling the pound an awareness of the latest trends and themes is key to securing the best rates. For more information on what is driving your rate and assistance with the very best rates of exchange please contact the author directly on firstname.lastname@example.org