Tag Archives: GBPUSD exhange rates

Is the bullish run for GBP exchange rates now over? (Joseph Wright)

As the end of the week approaches it would seem like Sterling’s rebound is coming to an end, as across the board Sterling is generally down today as it was yesterday as well.

Sterling has recently been boosted by a number of world leaders such as IMF managing director Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and US President Barack Obama all suggesting that Britain is better off remaining within the Eurozone, and this has been reflected within the most recent ‘Brexit’ polls as the ‘remain’ camp are seeing a significant lead and this has boosted risk sentiment towards the UK moving forward and therefore, Sterling strength.

Those looking for the best time to convert Sterling into Euro’s may wish to consider doing that sooner rather than later, as since GBPEUR tested the 1.2900 trading level a few times earlier this week, it’s since been on a slow decline downwards which is something I’m expecting to continue in the lead up to the EU Referendum on the 23rd of June.

Although Sterling’s upwards trend has begun to slow against the Dollar, the slowdown has been far less abrupt than GBPEUR’s and I think we could see some further strength in the rate of cable before market jitters and political uncertainty once again take over in the Referendums lead up. I’m not expecting to see the inter-bank rate go higher than 1.50 before June the 23rd but I do think it could test the late 1.40’s before returning to its longer term downward trend.

In recent times Sterling has performed well on UK bank holidays due to the thin volumes traded. Those with a interest in a strengthening Pound will hope the currency get’s off to a good start off the back of this as the beginning of May is going to be busy on the financial data front, with plenty of scope for volatility and potential Sterling weakness.

Next week see’s the release of US Non-Farm Payroll Figures, US Manufacturing, AUD Interest Rate Decision, EU Producer Price figures and US Unemployment data just to name a few of the biggest potential movers of currency markets. Although none of the data sets mentioned apply specifically to the UK economy, all have the potential to swing GBP based currency pairs so they’re worth paying attention to as the currency market is a zero sum game and there will always winners or losers.

If you would like to discuss the weeks major events, or an upcoming currency requirement you have involving GBP, it’s worth getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to take advantage of award winning exchange rates and high levels of client security. You can also speak to me over the phone by calling 01494 787 478 and asking for Joseph.

GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD all rise before the weekend (Joshua Privett)

Buying rates for Euros and Dollars saw some truly uplifting gains ahead of the weekend, with GBP/EUR being the standout performer, reaching 1.28 for the first time in almost two months.

Euro buyers, and anyone with GBP/USD, or GBP/AUD requirements, can lay their thanks for this turnaround squarely at the feet of Obama’s visit to the UK, and the overall positive impacts markets feel this will have on the likelihood of the UK remaining part of the EU.

Obama himself is even more popular than our own PM here, and his firm representation of the international community’s support for a Britain stronger in Europe is fully expected to translate into votes.

Particularly since his additional statements over the weekend that a UK outside of the EU would go to the back of the queue for trade deals with the US – the decision to leave is now a graver one.

At least, this is clearly how markets reacted to the news, which is why Sterling was up against all major currencies.

Polls are, however, still alarmingly close. Most recently it was 39% apiece for the Leave and Remain camps, with 12% of the population undecided and the rest likely not to vote.

Once May arrives companies will have to seriously consider their financial exposure in the run up to the June vote. We already saw mass sell-offs of the Pound in February when Boris Johnson joined the Leave campaign, and any repeats will see similar falls on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD as demand for Sterling wavers.

Over the weekend markets will be closed but recent poll data will be released for markets to trade on and react to come Monday morning. Obama’s visit may simply result in a short-term bump as he leaves the UK later toda.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me directly on jjp@currencies.co.uk

If you email me with a brief description of your upcoming need for currency over the next few months, and the best number to reach you on come Monday morning, I can then contact you directly once markets open.

I can convey how the most recent poll data has effected trading, and whether the more negative tone of the latter part of Obama’s visit will cause any reverse in trend as the week continues for Euro and Dollar buyers alike. We can then discuss a strategy for your transfer based on this to maximise your Euro and Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and Euro or Dollar sellers can also get in contact to discuss your options .

 

Buying Euro rates peaked again? (Joshua Privett)

Buying Euro rates have been teasing the 1.27 mark over the past three business days, presenting 5 cent gains for anyone with a GBP/EUR requirement since last Monday.

Yesterday’s European Central Bank meeting saw rates edging back into the 1.26’s with the decision to keep European interest rates on hold, and a confident appraisal of the recent gains in growth and unemployment from the Bank’s President Mario Draghi, allowing the recent confidence in the Euro to expand further.

Yet this morning, slight dips in Eurozone manufacturing and services performance has allowed the central level to pip just above 1.27 once more. This seems to be a recurring story over the past few business days.

The common term for this occurrence is as a ‘level of resistance’.

The main reason for this near stalemate is the fact that the European Central Bank’s policies are currently under fire for being too extreme.  The quantitative easing and interest rates at 0% which have been in effect for a number of months, and were the main reason why last year the Euro moved above 1.30 last year for the first time in 6 years, are being criticised.

This is the first time the Eurozone’s policies are being criticised openly by MP’s, and with the German Finance Minister leading the charge, currency markets may have to wrestle with the prospect of a reduction in the Eurozone’s current emergency measures to stimulate growth.

Should this scenario occur, the value of the Euro will soar to newer heights, and we will likely be getting more information over the weekend concerning this.

With a level of resistance having been reached, and with the combined economic argument above and the political argument of the looming Referendum, GBP/EUR is forecasted for further heavy falls as we edge closer to June. This current level of resistance around the high 1.26’s, low 1.27’s could be the last peak before the heavy campaign season in May starts to bite into rates.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro return.

Short term opportunities may still emerge, and a number of options open to Euro buyers such as rate alerts, automatic buy orders and ‘hedging your bets’ are useful avenues to manage your risk and ensure you buy at any peaks which emerge.

These current levels can also be fixed for those who do not need to buy their Euros until a later date. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere.

Euro sellers also feel free to get in contact, and I shall explain how best to ride the expected movements in your favour – if you have time to wait – come May and June. jjp@currencies.co.uk

What can we expect this week for the pound? (Jonathan Watson)

Jonathan speaking on BBC NEWS 24 in February

Jonathan speaking on BBC NEWS 24 in February

Great British Pound (GBP)

Important news this week for sterling is  Unemployment data on Wednesday which is expected to remain stable at 5.1%, this has been one of the key strengths of the UK economy, if the predicted rise in average earnings from 2.1 – 2.3% rings true sterling could be in for a good day on Wednesday! Thursday is Retail Sales figures which are always a volatile release and can impact markets, if you don’t see the sterling move you are looking for on Wednesday then this could be the one to watch.

In summary sterling should remain in a better position this week, the pound has slipped in recent weeks but found some form last week with better than expected Inflation data and better news concerning the government. David Cameron’s dreadful previous week was recovered from the worst points and a particular damning report by the Treasury on the Brexit has reconfirmed the governments position potentially further aiding the Remain camp. I expect this report and better UK data to help give the pound a lift by the end of the week but a lift that will be rather fragile when we (and financial markets) take into consideration the Referendum only 9 weeks away!

EURO (EUR)

A fairly tame start to the week with some Construction and Current Account figures gives way to a busy end of the week as Friday sees Manufacturing and Services data for the Eurozone. Thursday is the key date for the Euro however as we have the European Central Bank decision and Monetary Policy Statement. The last meeting saw almost 4 cents movement in the afternoon and whilst I don’t expect quite the volatility this is usually a volatile time as markets digest Mario Draghi’s assessment of the Eurozone. Following the ECB bazooka of low interest rates and QE last month Inflation has risen which should give Mario Draghi cause for cheer and possibly help the Euro rise.

In Summary the Euro looks set to remain strong but might lose some ground to a stronger pound on Wednesday. Thursday is the key date so if you need to buy Euros moving before Thursday might be sensible, GBPEUR buyers have received almost 3 cents improvements from the lows of April which given the uncertainty ahead should not in my opinion be dismissed too easily.

United States Dollar (USD)

This week is a range of mid tier releases in the US focusing on Housing Starts (Tuesday), Home Sales data (Wednesday) and Jobless Claims (Thursday). The dollar had weakened on the news the Fed were resigned to just the two rate hikes this year but has now found traction again. Two hikes is better than none and with the UK stagnating and the Eurozone still focused on ‘easing’ measures the dollar is still top of the class.

In summary there remains a good chance that the dollar will strengthen further against the pound longer term but this is sterling’s week. If you need to buy dollars with the pound taking advantage of any spike this week is I believe the best way forward.

Do you have a currency transaction to consider involving the pound? If so this week could see a return to favour which given the Referendum ahead is I believe something well worth taking advantage of! For more information on events to be aware of surrounding your currency transaction please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Buying rates for Euros and Dollars repeat rally (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR and GBP/USD exchange rates have seen a repeat performance to the start of March, with buying Euro rates being the stand-out performer showing gains of 3 cents for anyone holding Sterling.

This rally for the Pound has been attributed to the improvements in inflation and retail sales figures resulting from an early Easter, which correlates to a healthy increase in spending activity. Alongside a near resolution in the Tata Steel crisis, this has translated into greater confidence in the Pound.

Similarly the first few weeks of March saw gains for buying rates on Euros and Dollars when UK unemployment fell to 10 year lows at the same time as a recovery in oil prices.

If we are taking March as an example, however, it is likely that the buying rates currently available are set to be short-lived.

Politics takes over in the second half of the month when the flood of economic performance data dwindles to a trickle, and unfortunately the UK is nearing a very uncertain and serious political and economic fork in the road.

The most recent poll by The Economist puts the Remain camp level with the Leave campaign at 39%, with 12% of the population undecided and 10% of those polled likely to abstain from voting.

The EU Referendum is now just over two months away, and we have already been experiencing for a month the kind of market activity which will likely see the Pound weaken as we edge closer to June.

Currency markets rarely enjoy changes to the status quo, and businesses are already moving their funds into the Euro ahead of the Referendum to protect the value of their capital, given that polls are showing the race to be alarmingly close.

The Eurozone has already attracted more investment in the first three months of this year than the entirety of 2015 put together, around €215bn. I have personally been working with a number of businesses at their request to do the same since February.

This rise in demand for the Euro is what has continually been making the single currency a more expensive prospect. With the hit to Cameron’s credibility following the ‘Panama Papers’ scandal, this outflow of capital from the UK, similar to what preceded the Scottish Referendum, will likely continue.

Tuesday is expected to see the Euro regain its recent losses against Sterling with the release of the economic sentiment survey for the EU, which is forecasted to be overwhelmingly positive in the face of this staggering amount of recent foreign investment.

With Monday potentially showing some final opportunities for Euro and Dollar buyers before we enter a difficult two weeks in the run-up to May, I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options available to you in order to maximise your currency return.

I will reply personally before currency markets open again on Monday morning. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and even if you do not require your currency for a few months, there are ways to ‘fix’ rates of exchange for a pre-determined time set by you, or even install automatic buy orders at desired levels set by you to avoid missing out on any realistic opportunities which emerge in the short-term.

A brief description of your situation, and the best number to reach you on tomorrow morning will streamline the process rather than simple email correspondance.

Euro and Dollar sellers can do the same, and I will explain how best to ride the expected movements in your favour to any peaks which emerge within the timeframe you have to complete your transfer.

Will The Pounds Rally Continue? (Daniel Johnson)

Sterling has rallied against most major currency pairings after the release of better than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. CPI is a measure of inflation and is a key barometer as to the health of an economy, a rise is seen as positive. GBP/EUR briefly hit 1.26 and we have seen a slight drop since, currently sitting in the low 1.25s. Whether you are purchasing EUR,AUD,CAD or USD I feel it may best to take advantage of current levels. The key factor in any Sterling trade is the EU referendum, current polls show 52% of the UK population are in favour of a “Brexit”. If the UK were to leave it would be catastrophic for the UK economy, with trade relations put under sever strain which will severely decrease UK exports.

HSBC recently predicted GBP/EUR could hit parity if an exit takes place. Cameron is clearly concerned spending $9.2m on leaflets, which may not have the impact he hopes due to his credibility taking a knock after the “panama papers” release. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) have now cut the UK’s economic growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.9%. Sterling could plunge in value if there is an exit, if you are selling the Pound, procrastination could prove very costly. The safe option is to move before June 23rd.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist.  I specialise in property and commercial trades and I am in a position to undercut high street bank’s exchange rates by up to 5%. If you would like to get in touch for a free quote you can contact me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to hearing from you.

If you would like to find out more about the company I work for please why not visit our website www.currencies.co.uk.    

Pound falls whilst UK markets closed for Good Friday (Joshua Privett)

The Pound lost ground against most major currencies on Friday, with those looking to buy Euros being the hardest hit with inter-bank levels on GBP/EUR hitting 1.25 once more.

With the recent Brexit debate and the horrific attacks in Brussels, the role of economic performance in swaying buying rates for Euros, as well as the strength of the Pound against other currencies, has been kept out of the headlines.

A major contributor as to why the Pound lost ground against all major competitors since the start of the year has been what George Osborne has described as a slowing British economy. In January he stated that 2016 was likely to be the most difficult year for the UK since the recession, and unfortunately he has already been proven right.

GBP/EUR is down 7.9%, GBP/USD is down 6.5% and GBP/AUD is down 12.4% since January. The common factor here is that the Pound is weakening. GBP/EUR is not simply down because the Eurozone is beginning to recover after a dismal 2015, and neither is GBP/USD only down because the US were the first country to raise interest rates since the recession.

The UK economy has been slowing alongside the world as a whole. You only need to see the near-monthly news headlines of a China in disarray sparking another panicked slide on global financial markets to confirm this.

Due to the UK’s reliance on our financial services sector, we have almost immediately begun to feel the effects of the global slowdown – which reduces investment activity rapidly – ahead of other countries with greater reliance on alternative areas for profit, such as exports.

 

This is why positive growth data for France on Thursday outpaced the UK’s on Friday which allowed GBP/EUR to fall further. However, even with the long-term picture for GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD looking bleak, particularly with a potential Brexit looming over the value of the Pound, short-term opportunities may present themselves.

For Euro and Dollar buyers alike, this will likely come on Wednesday, with German inflation data, and US employment figures coming out. These are key market movers and this time, both are expected to produce negative results, so both GBP/EUR and GBP/USD rates should receive a short-term boost.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirements should contact me whilst markets are closed over the holiday period on jjp@currencies.co.uk. I will reply personally to explain how to best to monitor and then seize any peaks which emerge from such data releases to make sure that no opportunities are missed.

Unlike Friday, Easter Monday is a much more universal Bank Holiday, so currency rates will barely move. So if you get in touch ahead of Tuesday, detailing your specific requirements, whether they are immediate or in a few months from now, I can contact you immediately to discuss your options and help you to formulate a plan for Wednesday so you are as prepared as possible.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere. If you leave the best contact number to call in an email then not only can I outline your options, but I can answer any questions you may have about my service and explore current forecasts for GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD in more detail with you.

Anyone buying Sterling can do the same, and I can explore realistic target levels with you in the time-period you have to complete your transaction as we edge closer to the Referendum and the expected gains they bring.

 

 

Terrorist attacks in Brussels: Euro and Dollar buying rate impact (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD have all been in turmoil today as further tragedies to hit Europe have rippled through the financial markets.

It has been difficult to tear ourselves away from the news today, as subsequent attacks and the sudden announcement of a manhunt have made us all worry about what may emerge over the next few hours.

It’s rare that events such as this occur, but unfortunately, enough have occured for similar patterns on the currency exchange markets to become visible during terrorist attacks.

Firstly, you tend to get weakness in the currency to which the country the attacks occur uses. Investors worry about further attacks so they move their finances out of the country due to the economic stall which occurs when authorities fully mobilise to combat the threat over the coming weeks.

This occured for the Euro today. But with Belgium being a single country in the entirety of the Eurozone this effect was muted compared to the slides on the Pound seen during 7/7.

Many Euro buyers would have noted that on this occasion Sterling did not make gains against the Euro.

Other events in the UK caused enough Pound weakness across the board which was the deciding factor not only on Euro buying rates, but also for most major currencies.

The lack of confidence in the Government following a high profile resignation and a £4.4bn hole in the budget has put a further question mark over the Pound. Particularly since most arguements for the UK remaining in the Eurozone are economically based, markets are upset that a largely Pro-EU government are losing credibility.

The Euro has certainly lost value today, since EUR/AUD, and EUR/USD both show losses. The terrorist attacks simply limited losses on GBP/EUR that Euro buyers that should have otherwise been experienced today.

There is certainly further room for GBP/EUR rates to fall. Today’s events are not only a heartbreaking tragedy, but a testament to how unattractive an investment the Pound shall continue to be until the Referendum in June.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro, US Dollar, or Australian Dollar buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua to discuss a strategy for you transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

Following the events of today markets may see a slight correction. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current exchange levels can be fixed for up to a year if you do not require your currency until a later date and are worried about further falls.

Sterling buyers can do the same, and I can explain how best to safely ride the expected movements in your favour to their completion in the time period you have to make your transfer. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Will the UK’s interest rate decision today be as poor for the Pound as the US’s for the Dollar? (Joshua Privett)

Yesterday evening when UK markets were closed the US Federal Reserve Bank announced that they were putting further interest rate hikes on hold. GBP/USD cannoned upwards by 1.5 cents as a result.

The Dollar strengthened massively in December when they raised their interest rates, particularly because in the past initial rate hikes are followed by a further four incremental rises later in the year. Clearly history won’t be repeating itself anytime soon, so the Dollar weakened immediately as a result.

Why did GBP/EUR fall as well?

Firstly, events in the US have a strong effect on the value of the Euro. USD/EUR is the most heavily traded currency pairing in the world. So the general rule of thumb on the currency markets is that when one weakens, the other gains value heavily, even against secondary currency pairs such as the Pound.

In this instance poor news in the US, caused large amounts of investors to sell off their Dollars and move their capital into the Euro, which has translated into a 0.8 Cent gain for the Euro against the Pound, with GBP/EUR falling into the 1.26’s.

Furthermore, markets are likely pricing in the expected weakness set to come in at midday today, as the UK have our own interest rate decision to make.

It’s rare that events on the currency markets have become so predictable. Over the past 5 months consecutively, the decision from the Bank of England, and the press conference which follows, paints an overall negative tone for the UK’s timeline to raise our own interest rates.

This is arguably the most important factor when determining the value of a currency: the guaranteed capital returns for investing in it. With the UK repeatedly delaying our own hike, now likely in the middle of 2017, it makes the Pound less attractive and therefore its value falls.

With the US themselves delaying a rise due to the recent slides on global stock-markets, I expect the UK to make the same decision and continue the Pound’s recent slide against the Euro, alongside reversing some of the gains against the Dollar yesterday.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or US Dollar buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximize your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and anyone worried about how the upcoming Brexit will affect the value of the Pound can actually fix the current exchange rates as they are in order to avoid any harmful movements against their favour as they wait to conduct their transfer later in the year.

Euro and Dollar sellers can also get in contact, and I can explain how best to ride the expected movements in your favour safely to any peaks which emerge in the time-frame you have to complete your transfer. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

Sterling Exchange Rates Under Pressure!

PrThe pound is under pressure and is likely to remain so! This week is a very tricky one for the pound with the Budget, Bank of England Interest Rate meeting and Unemployment data. So far this year sterling has been the worst performing currency as fears over Brexit increase and any interest rate rise gets kicked well into 2017 and perhaps beyond! Despite this the pound is still at some pretty attractive historical levels for the last five years against most currencies. GBPEUR is range bound between 1.27 and 1.29 which considering the average a few years was more like 1.10-1.20, isn’t terrible for Euro buyers. GBPAUD and GBPNZD remain at elevated levels, GBPAUD is lower at 1.90 but I helped people buy property a few years ago in Australia at 1.50! The Kiwi is still on the back foot following last week’s interest rate cut and at 2.13 remains very good level historically.

Probably the best performer against the pound has been the USD which hit close to 7 year highs a few weeks ago. Further USD strength could arise from Wednesday evening’s Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision. US economic policy has a big impact on global exchange rates and could impact sterling against other currencies. As the decision causes movement on GBPUSD and EURUSD it will lead  to independent movements on the pound and the Euro.

If you are buying a currency with sterling the turbulence of 2016 is only likely to continue further in the coming weeks and months. This will present opportunities for clients who have made plans in advance. Unfortunately just sitting around waiting for an exchange rate to go your way doesn’t always help! If you are considering a currency transfer I am very confident I can offer you some useful information to help you make an informed decision. In my many years personally assisting clients to buy and sell foreign exchange I have also written many articles on the markets online, been quoted in Newspapers and as you might be aware was also asked to appear on BBC News to discuss the Referendum – please read more here if you are interested.

Unfortunately all of this doesn’t give me any better qualification than anyone to tell you exactly what will happen because of course financial markets are unpredictable. Having said that there are certain themes and trends which can be identified and explained to help form an opinion of ‘when’ might be a good time to purchase or sell. For more information please email jmw@currencies.co.uk