Tag Archives: GBPUSD exhange rates
Do you know who is going to win the election in the UK? Nor do I. But I think a hung parliament is looking more and more likely, this is something anyone considering buying or selling sterling should be very aware of. The pound is likely to fall in the coming weeks as uncertainty rises as to who will take the reign of the UK public finances. This is not a time to be sitting on the fence waiting for something to happen!
Moody’s the ratings agency confirmed yesterday that they view a UK exit from the EU more damaging than any uncertainty over just how the election pans out. As a client pointed out to me recently any uncertainty in the UK parliament may pale into insignificance when compared with some of the uncertainty in the Eurozone at the moment!
Simply put no one can say exactly what will happen. But from my experience of past events (the 2010 election and the Scottish Referendum) sterling is likely to fall before the event before rising after. However with the Tories pledging a referendum on Europe and Labour pledging to increase spending neither outcome looks good from a market perspective. It may be that sterling could fall further after the election or around the result as the parties scramble to get in bed with one another over important issues.
If you are considering a sterling transfer in the future the coming weeks may present at opportunity that does not return. Making plans in advance is the only way to limit your risk and help maximise your currency exchange. We offer a specialist proactive service to help you get the most from the market when transferring money overseas. This blog is intended to highlight important events and information in the market so that you can help minimise your risk through an informed decision.
To really get the most from our service speaking to one of our team or myself is recommended. I Jonathan Watson have worked as a foreign exchange broker for the same company for 6 years and am here to assist in the planning and execution of any international money transfer you need to make. I cannot tell you exactly what to do but hope to provide useful insight and a platform for achieving the most for your money. Even if funds are not required at this stage with plenty of uncertainty around, utilising a forward contract or a stop loss or limit order might be a good idea.
I am very confident I can show you a saving on the exchange rate versus other sources and also offer a friendly, knowledgeable service above any bank or foreign exchange broker. If you wish to learn more about the pound and just what to expect plus what you can do about the uncertainty up ahead please email me on firstname.lastname@example.org
Other Currencies News
CAD – Unemployment data today at 13.30 has helped the current 2 month high the Loonie dollar is enjoying against sterling. In a nutshell the Canadian dollar is benefitting from an improved Oil price and overall improvements in their biggest trading partner America’s economy. The Loonie may well track further future projected improvements in the USD against sterling so anyone buying the Canadian dollar in the future might wish to make plans sooner than later.
AUD – The Reserve Bank of Australia decided not to cut their interest rate as expected helping the Aussie to strengthen against sterling. Expectations are for the RBA to make at least one more rate cut before the end of the year as they seek a weaker currency to help boost their exports.
ZAR – A general improvement in risk appetite and commodity prices has helped the Rand to rise against sterling, anyone selling Rand for the pound might want to move on any GBP weakness before the upcoming election.
No matter which currency you are buying or selling and when, please feel free to make contact to be kept up to date with the latest news and events which may alter your price. Whether a regular business buying currency or a private property investor looking at a one off international payment, I am sure I can offer you something of interest.
I look forward to hearing from you, please don’t forget to vote
Sterling has spiked against its peers as UK data shows improvements in the various sectors of the economy, notably the Manufacturing Industry and the Services Sector. Unless you are buying USD with the pound, 2015 has been pretty much plain sailing for anyone buying a foreign currency with the pound. What I wish to focus on are the numbers of clients buying the pound currently. Tomorrow and next week could be some very good opportunities to buy the pound as the Bank of England release some important information. Sterling looks set to rise over the longer term so making some plans soon is probably wise!
EUR to GBP – 2015 has been a rough ride for anyone selling a property or getting paid in the Eurozone. Quantitative Easing and the Greek election have caused the Euro to sink to a 7 year low against the pound and the forecast for Euro sellers is not very rosy. I would be seeking to trade on any dips in your favour. The General Election later in the year may help but in my opinion holding on for so long is a risky move. To learn more about the process of moving funds out of the Eurozone at the best exchange rates please contact me Jonathan on email@example.com
AUD to GBP – The Aussie has weakened to multi year lows against sterling too, principally on the back of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) decision to cut interest rates to stimulate growth. Falling commodity prices have caused the Australian dollar to plummet and we are only a couple of cents off the historic 1 GBP for 2 AUD being reached. With the global economy slowing it would seem reasonable to expect further losses for the AUD as the RBA act to keep the Australian economy growing.
Even if you are holding on expecting rates to majorly improve for buying the pound depending on the currency you are holding it is probably sensible to make some firm plans now. We offer a specialist service to move money internationally at the very best exchange rates. Assisting in the planning and execution of said transfers we have directly helped over 4000 clients to make an informed decision about when to execute their exchange plus countless others who read the site. If you are a regular reader and wish to learn more please email me Jonathan on firstname.lastname@example.org
US ~Non Farm Payroll data is due tomorrow which could be a big market mover as it is the first one since the US stopped their QE programme. Today’s meeting with Mario Draghi might also be very interesting and should be a market mover, the least interesting thing is probably the UK’s Bank of England decision which is not expected to yield anything new.
How can you make a decision on when is the right time to enter the market if you don’t know what is happening? The idea of this blog is to provide information on just where rates are headed and make sure you get the best price when you do decide to enter the market. If you have a transaction that you need to consider why not get in touch with our specialist team to find out more about moving money internationally at the very best rates.
Sterling has done really well this year as the UK economy improves and investors position themselves for the UK to raise interest rates. Next year we would expect the UK elections to move the market, the increased uncertainty surrounding the political situation in the UK is bound to cause ripples on exchange rates.
When considering making a currency exchange understanding what is driving the exchange rate is vital to getting the most from the market. Please contact Jonathan on email@example.com for a quick overview of your position and to learn more about getting the best rates.
There is no shortage of the positive things for the pound at present. It is the only major currency genuinely on course to raise interest rates and the British economy is predicted to be one of the fastest growing in the next few months. Unemployment is falling and the economy is growing, the green shoots have for some finally sprouted…
A quick look up ahead however shows that the path to a stronger pound isn’t quite as clear as some forecasters seem to believe. There are three key elements to look out for.
– Political Uncertainty –
Usually ahead of an election a currency weakens. The Scottish Referendum in September still has many unanswered questions and it would be foolish to discount late swing votes. Markets can be fearful creatures and if sentiments turn negative the pound may lose value. Next year is the General Election which could provide plenty of opportunities for GBP weakness. Even though the Bank of England is independent from the Government will rising interest rates be an election topic? Already portrayed as the ‘mean’ party, the Tories may struggle to maintain their economic plan under a new coalition and Labour’s economic plans look very anti – business…
There is also the prospect of the UK leaving the EU, again it is the uncertainty these events present which could undermine GBP gains…
- Rising Interest Rates may derail the economy -
Rising Interest rates could do more harm than good! Property prices are principally rising in the South East, mainly London and this is skewing the market. Other areas of the country are actually seeing prices fall or remain stagnant. Rising Interest rates may serve to undermine recovery in the housing market across the housing market making it more difficult for purchasers to get a mortgage and reducing the disposable income (that is spent in the wider economy helping for example Retail sales) those with mortgages have.
Many commentators have pointed out we are in a new ‘low interest rate’ economy globally. There are drawbacks to this but perhaps the UK needs to be stronger on its feet before interest rates rise.
- A strong pound can be bad for exports and growth prospects -
There have been some of the UK’s biggest companies this week highlighting the detrimental effect the strong pound is having on their profits. Rising interest rates may serve to strengthen the pound further making UK manufacturing and service less competitive in the global economy.
All in all the pound is at multi year highs against many currencies. Assuming rates will remain where they are is a foolish assumption and anyone considering moving larger volumes of currency should note the difference even 1 cent can make on a big volume of money.
If you need to buy or sell a foreign currency we can offer assistance understanding the market and getting the best rates on your deals. We are a group of specialist currency brokers writing this blog for your help. Please feel free to contact me Jonathan directly to learn more.
Looking ahead is always fraught with difficulties but sometimes it is easier when you know a little more than the average. Just now sterling is at 1.2613 on GBPEUR and 1.7160 on GBPUSD. Other exchange rates are also at multi year highs giving some well deserved relief for anyone transferring money abroad in recent years! I was helping some clients buying property in Europe at 1.10 a few years ago and I remember businesses buying the USD cheering at being able to get 1.50!
Tomorrow we have a very important release for the UK with the latest labour market statistics including the all important Unemployment rate. With Inflation having unexpectedly risen changes in Average earnings will attract slightly more attention, the prospects for GBP strength on the whole seem high.
Thursday is the all important CPI (Consumer Price Index) Inflation data for the Eurozone which will outline just how justified recent ECB (European Central Bank) actions have been in attempting to quell falling inflation or ‘disinflation’. Sterling may therefore make some further gains against a battered Euro.
Priced In? – Markets have probably been pricing in the prospect of a) good UK data and b) bad Eurozone data so anything that comes out worse than expected for the UK and better than expected for the Eurozone could trigger sharp corrections. Movements of up to one cent should not be ruled out depending on just what happens. I would personally be shooting for better rates to buy a foreign currency towards the end of the week (from tomorrow) in anticipation of some positive UK Unemployment data cementing and even lifting current levels.
Should you have further to hold on you can wait until next Friday when we get the first estimate of UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the UK for Q2. I would personally not be surprised to see the rates tick higher on this release although arguably the good news is already in the market. As with the two releases above for me the risk is to the downside, markets expect positive numbers for the UK. Anything to the contrary could trigger sterling losses.
For more information on how to approach your transaction plus an award winning exchange rate when you do, please speak to me Jonathan Watson on firstname.lastname@example.org or call 01494 787 478.