Tag Archives: GBPUSD exhange rates

Sterling remains under pressure despite positive data release, is this a sign of things to come? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has come under pressure today despite the UK economy posting some better than expected figures in an important sector of the UK economy.

After beginning the day negatively the Pound received a slight boost this morning as Services PMI data came out better than analysts had expected. The data showed that sentiment within the services sector is positive, which is important for the UK economy as the services sector amounts to more than two-thirds of the countries economic output.

In normal market conditions it wouldn’t be unusual to see the Pound spike upward off this news, and although it attempted to the currency is currency down against all major currency pairs with the exception of the US Dollar, which has dropped in value today also across the board.

Those concerned with the value of the Pound should pay close attention to the outcome of the Supreme Courts decision on whether or not the government needs parliamentary approval before beginning the Brexit process.

This topic appears to be the biggest mover of currency pairs involving the Pound and the Euro could also feel the effects of the decision. The outcome is scheduled to be released between the 12-17th of this month and I expect expectations of the decision to effect Sterling’s value between now and then.

Other than this, economic data could also weigh on Sterling’s value especially if it disappoints considering what happened today. Feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss any upcoming news releases and how they could effect your upcoming currency exchange requirement.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in touch with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in to speak with me on 01494 787 478, just ask reception for Joe. 

 

Buying Euro rates soar whilst GBP/USD and GBP/AUD remain relatively stagnant (Joshua Privett)

Buying Euro rates of exchange have enjoyed a further boost following the long (to say the least) awaited announcement of further emergency stimulus in the Eurozone to keep growth on track. However, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD have remained relatively stagnant following the Pound’s losses earlier this week.

The Pound has come under renewed pressure this week as the Supreme Court decision over Parliament’s involvement in the Brexit negotiation was debated and fleshed out in what was, on occasion, quite gripping television.

Previously the Judicial Court had ruled in the favour of Parliament being involved in the invoking of Article 50 as a voting process. The frenzy of investors flowing into Sterling, which raised its value through increased demand. was attributed to the high expectation that Parliament’s involvement would yield a longer time-frame for the UK to enact a Brexit, alongside the likelihood that MP’s would push to retain close economic ties with the EU.

This has now been called into question on two fronts. Firstly, MP’s have cut a deal with Theresa May to push through a mandate that Parliament will support the Government’s deadline to enact Article 50 by the previously agreed date of March 2017. In return, May will be more forthright about her plans for her upcoming negotiations with the EU which were announced on Wednesday.

Secondly, the appeal with the Supreme Court is not simply a re-hashing of the previous court case. The Government is using more complicated lines of argument, including precedent from Parliament’s actions, to suggest that the Government can act unilaterally without heavy Parliamentary oversight.

Whilst it is debatable how much this is landing with the judges, markets have certainly been made nervous that even though the Government is appealing, they have a chance of winning. Whilst this is not a murder trail with sudden new evidence coming to light, with little precedence for such a decision in the past, the uncertainty about which way the Supreme Court may swing is high.

This uncertainty is what has caused Sterling to lose some of its recent strength, it is simply a gift for anyone with a GBP/EUR interest that this has coincided with news of further financial stimulus in the Eurozone to reverse some of these losses. US Dollar and Australian Dollar buyers are unfortunately not so lucky.

Moving forward the US interest rate decision on Wednesday next week will likely provide a further boon for Euro buyers (due to the special relationship between USD/EUR) and additional woes for US Dollar buyers.

In the medium term however, the Pound is expected to have its rally against all major currencies dampened further by year-end profit taking which is set to take place in the latter part of December, so whilst US Dollar and AUD buyers may need to move with greater urgency, Euro buyers may see a ‘sweet spot’ emerging on GBP/EUR over the next week or so.

In these instances it is best to be in a position to move fairly quickly in case any tempting opportunities emerge, and the well informed purchaser will certainly have an advantage to avoid being ‘last to the party’ and being forced to accept a rate of exchange below any premium which is reached.

I am in a position to offer a proactive service to help my customers in timing their transfers, particularly during these volatile periods, in order to secure desirable exchange rates. I work for one of the UK’s leading brokerages with the average tenure of our dealer’s being in excess of 8 years in this job – longer than most companies in their entirety – so I am ideally placed to secure the most competitive rates and have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere for GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD. Simply contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk and I will respond as soon as I am able.

Similarly if you are looking to be buying Sterling, as my article points out there are likely to be further opportunities for you later in the month with a cheaper Pound, so you can contact me to discuss the options open to you to monitor the markets and secure a desired exchange rate.

 

Sterling gains on positive UK trade data, will the bullish trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The latest set of UK economic data surprised investors today and as a result, the Pound has received a welcome boost across the board.

After a very good November the Pound fell off it’s highs against both the Euro and the US Dollar earlier this week, but the currency is regaining some of it’s lost value and approaching those highs once again which the GBP/EUR pair approaching 1.20 once again.

The Pound has recovered particularly well versus the Euro after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced yesterday that it will be extending its bond purchasing program as a form of quantitative easing.

The Pound gained off the back of this news mostly due to Euro weakness but today those gains have been boosted further. UK Trade is looking a lot healthier after data released today showed October’s visible trade balance dropped to -£9.7bn when many had expected to see it drop from -£13.8bn down to -£11.8bn.

This reduction is of course good news for the UK, and trade balance figures are often discussed in financial media after earlier this year it was announced that the pound had the highest deficit within the developed world.

Now that GBP/USD is trading above 1.25 and GBP/EUR is closing in on 1.20 once again it appears that the Pound is looking healthy around these levels after gaining a lot of ground in a short period of time.

If you’re planning on taking advantage of the recent gains by Sterling by converting the currency into another major currency, feel free to get in contact to discuss  exchange rates and timings.

You can contact me directly jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Buying Euro and Dollar rates soar from Boris and David’s comments (Joshua Privett)

Fresh two and a half month highs were reached earlier today on buying Euro and Dollar exchange rates following surprising and contentious comments made by the men spearheading the Brexit project.

David Davis and Boris Johnson, the Brexit Secretary and the Foreign Secretary respectively, have come out this morning seemingly having taken a U-turn on key positions which financial markets pounced on immediately. At its peak GBP/EUR bridged 1.1950, GBP/USD breached 1.2690 and GBP/AUD just pipped over 1.7150.

Financial markets have made no secret that they want the UK to remain part of the single market. Collectively there is greater appetite for investment in the Pound if they know the transition away from the EU is expected to be gentler – hence the term ‘soft Brexit’.

Johnson, as was shown all over major newspapers today, has stated privately to ambassadors that he was ‘all for’ free movement of people. And David Davis has stated that the UK will likely continue to pay for preferential access to the single market today in a statement in the House of Commons.

An utter reversal on both Government and Boris’s own public opinions stated recently, and the greater likelihood of a softer Brexit suggested in the comments saw the Pound soar against all major pairings, with buying Euros and US Dollar buyers being the key winners.

However, as the day waned on the ‘run’ on the Pound began to lose its momentum and eventually fell back heavily. Speculators taking profit from such serious movements today are seen as the root cause.

Moving forward, GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD exchange rates will need to navigate the upcoming Italian Referendum and US non-farm payroll figures.

The US figures are to be released tomorrow lunchtime and the Italian Referendum results are expected on Monday.

The referendum will be key for buying Euro rates as a NO result will likely mean the rise of the far right over in Italy, and create further questions marks regarding the Eurozone’s future. Polls are currently neck and neck, but heavy movement is expected on Monday either way. As such a premium will be put on being able to move quickly on Monday to secure tempting levels or protect yourself from any sudden downturns.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a foreign currency requirement using Sterling should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer to safeguard it from any adverse movements and to discuss how best to seize any particularly tempting levels which emerge in the short term.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.

I will also remind our regular readers that if you are looking to be securing an exchange rate for a future purchase based on the recent improvements in the Pound, this is easily done using a forward contract, whereby the rate is pre-booked at today’s levels to be utilized for a later date. Again simply email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss this further.

Sterling riding high, but will the Pound’s rally continue? (Daniel Johnson)

Pound Sterling Forecast

Since Philip Hammond’s Autumn statement we have seen the Pound rally against the majority of major currencies.  Hammond delivered a realistic , non dramatic statement but made it clear he will be attempting to make Britain resilient to any problems that come from a possible exit from the EU.

The pound has hit new buoyancy levels against the majors, but I am not convinced Sterling will continue to rise in value. We have the Supreme Court Judgement which will determine whether the government will get the final say on the triggering of Article 50 which will officially start the process of Britain exiting the EU.  Scotland also may get involved, the argument that Scotland will be impacted by the decision bears credibility.

If the decision is that the government will have their say then the possibility of a soft Brexit becomes more likely, this should strengthen the Pound, but will elongate the exit process and Theresa May’s target of leaving the EU by the end of March could well be pushed back. If you are looking to sell the Pound you may wish to consider moving before this event.

Pound to US Dollar exchange rates in detail

The key upcoming event for the US is the interest rate decision on 14th December. Janet Yellen the head of the Federal Reserve indicated at the end of last year that there would be several rate hikes in 2016, but none have yet to materialise. Although the FED is meant to act as a separate entity to the government, the political uncertainty created around who would win the presidency may have been a factor in keeping rates on hold.

Trump has been highly critical of Yellen’s unwillingness to hike rates and has gone as far to threaten her with a more bullish replacement. This could well force Yellen’s hand on December 14th and there is a high probability of a rise in interest rates. If you are buying US Dollars it may be wise to move before the interest rate decision. Keep an eye on Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday as this event is notorious for it’s unpredictability and ability to move markets.

Pound to Euro exchange rates in detail

With current levels close to 1.18, a near two month high it is tempting to perform your trade if you are selling Sterling with the Supreme Court judgement and the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision early in December. Many econimists are predicting that Mario Draghi the Head of the ECB will let slip his plans for future Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially pumping moneyinto an economy to stimulate growth. The ECB is currently injecting €80bn a month into the Eurozone. The current program is due to end in March, but with little change of inflation I would be surprised to see QE not continue. There is also the possibility of an increase in monthly increments. If news does filter through on 8th December this could be what the gambling Sterling seller could have been waiting for.

If you have a currency trade it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital, If you have an experienced broker on board they can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of  the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free individual trading strategy. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better almost every competitors rate of exchange. You would  be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

Daniel Johnson

Executive Dealer – Foreign Currency Direct PLC

Will the pound rise or fall in December?

The pound has had an amazing few weeks going from one of the world’s worst performing currencies to one of the world’s best performing currencies. Investors were bracing themselves for a dreadful finish to a bad year for the pound but now the outlook is a little rosier. Of course the performance of the pound will be interesting to you depending on which currency you are buying or selling against the pound. December has some very important global events alongside key news at home, all of which will shape sterling exchange rates. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound soon or in 2017 December is a key month to be making some plans ahead of!

EURO (GBPEUR) – The Italian Constitutional Referendum is on the 4th December and could easily see a big unwinding of Euro positions. This could give Euro buyers with pounds a nice early Christmas present! The Euro may weaken as political uncertainty in the region becomes a concern, the referendum is on constitutional reform but is turning into a vote on the popularity of Matteo Renzi the current Italian PM. On the 8th December the European Central Bank meet to discuss further QE (Quantitative Easing) measures which could also weaken the Euro.

December is shaping up to be a very volatile month for the Euro. The pound has just hit fresh 2 month highs against the Euro but will this last or could it go even go higher? For more information on this particularly uncertain pair please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk. We could hit over 1.20 so if you are looking to buy at 1.20 or more please let me know.

US Dollar (GBPUSD) – The fallout from Donald Trumps election victory continues mainly in emerging markets but the ascent of the US dollar seems almost unstoppable. One event that could easily half the strength of the US dollar is December 14th the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. With markets pricing in over 90% probability of the US raising their interest rate to 0.75% global markets will be bracing themselves for this important wide reaching event. Expect further US dollar strength but this might lead to unexpected swings on GBPEUR and GBPUSD and investors move funds in and out of the US dollar.

GBPUSD exchange rates have been some of the most volatile in 2016 moving over 30 cents between the high and the low. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound and US dollar then please contact me to discuss the market in depth and all of your options. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to get a further breakdown of the outlook and best available rates on this volatile pairing.

Jonathan Watson in action!

Jonathan Watson 

I Jonathan Watson have worked as a currency specialist for almost ten years helping business and private clients maximise their currency exchanges. I can offer a full overview of the market and highlight all the important events and your options to help limit your currency exposure. I would be delighted to hear from you and have a chat about our services and how we might help.

To contact Jonathan please email jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478. Jonathan has appeared on BBC News discussing the EU Referendum and has been quoted in the FT, The Times The Telegraph and many more. 

Autumn Budget – Expect volatility on the market (Daniel Johnson)

The Autumn Statement

Tomorrow the Chancellor, Philip Hammond will deliver the autumn Budget. He will outline spending and taxes post-Brexit vote. We will also see forecasts relating to unemployment, growth and inflation. This will give an indication as to policy moving forward.

Inflation will be particularly interesting as the fall in Sterling has caused import prices to rocket which will soon hit the consumer. This is not good news for the UK economy as wage growth will not keep up. Some economists are predicting we could be as high as 2.7% by the end of Q1.

George Osbourne’s pledge to balance the books by the end of his tenure has been scuppered by the referendum vote and the government face a black hole of around £25bn. I would expect there to be a rise in borrowing of £5bn upwards.

Expect  drop in growth forecasts and the pound to be hit due to this. If you have currency requirement involving selling Sterling it may be wise to take advantage of current highs.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wold like no obligation help, feel free to contact me personally at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I can provide you with an individual trading strategy if you provide me with the currency pair you are trading, your time scale and a ball park figure of the size of your trade. I work for Foreign Currency Direct PLC, one of the top brokerages in the Country and it enables us to provide the most competitive rates of exchange. We are registered with the FCA and have been in business for over 16yrs giving clients peace of mind when dealing with their transfers.  Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to helping you with your currency requirements.

Sterling exchange rates receive another boost, but will the Pound hold onto its recent gains? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling is the best performing currency in the G10 so far this week, after it was boosted yesterday off the back of some Brexit positive news from the UK’s Prime Minister Theresa May.

Whilst addressing the CBI conference (a gathering of the leading names from the world of business, politics and media) May gave a number of hints that the government will be looking to create new opportunities through ‘new and dynamic’ trade deals. She implied that she would be looking for a transitional deal for business after the Brexit which suggests that she’s open to the UK retaining access to the single market for as long as possible.

Readers hoping for a stronger Pound should continue to pay close attention to comments by leading figures within the UK surrounding the Brexit.

The Brexit is the biggest driver of currency movement involving the Pound, with any talk of the UK retaining access to the single market, the Brexit initiation process being delayed or extensions to the 2 year separation process being met well by the markets.

The Pound is at it’s highest level vs the Euro in 2 months after gaining around 6 cents in a short period of time, mostly due to the High Courts recent ruling, Trumps election victory and May’s comments yesterday at the CBI conference.

There are a number of major financial institutions that despite Sterling’s recent gains, are still expecting the Pound to decline to levels not seen for 5 years during 2017.

HSBC remains particularly bearish regarding Sterling’s projected value next year, and DNB Markets have specifically given the GBP/EUR pair a 12 month price target of 1.0869 which is almost 10 cents weaker than its current level.

If you would like to be kept up to date with the latest Sterling news, and would like to discuss the timing of an upcoming currency exchange you’re planning on making involving the Pound, feel free to get in touch with me (Joe) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk for a free overview. 

We’re here to help you make a well informed decision on when to make your currency transfer, and to help you benefit from highly competitive exchange rates as we’re one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call in and ask reception for Joe on 01494 787 478. 

How will the Autumn Statement impact pound sterling exchange rates?

Philip Hammond has no easy task ahead this week as he sets out his plans for the UK economy moving forward. With Brexit still dominating politics and economics there is lots of pressure on the Chancellor to outline an economic plan of Britain that will match the commitments of the new Prime Minister and her colleagues. As always there have been a few leaks in the press over the weekend so let us look at these and work out how it will affect the economy and the pound moving forward.

You don’t have to travel too far in the UK to be reminded of the problems with UK roads. Report suggest over £1bn worth of investment in UK roads with a new expressway between Oxford and Cambridge. Infrastructure spending is to be much welcomed as it will increase efficiency of travel around the UK which will only help business. This should be good for the pound in many respects since it will help the UK economy longer term.

There is a flipside in that government borrowing is at record highs and further borrowing goes against the grain of what previous Tory administrations worked hard to (unsuccessfully) establish. If you look to the last election the Tories gained power on economic prowess promising not to tip the country into massive debts which of course they still did. If the current administration now spends lots it could risk upsetting the financial markets that so strongly backed the Tories last year.

Times have of course changed and given the backdrop of Brexit and a mood that tough austerity just isn’t necessary we could see more leeway from markets. On the whole I would expect the Autumn statement to be cautiously seen as sterling positive but any clients looking to buy or sell this week should be preparing their exchange today to limit their exposure and be preparing for the date.

If you are considering an exchange and wish to talk to a specialist about the relevant issues and ins and outs of transferring money at the very best rates of exchange please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk or please fill in the form below.

 

Buying Euro and Dollar rates largely stable despite record 14 year highs in retail sales figures (Joshua Privett)

Buying Euro rates are up at some new two month highs today following strong retail sales figures in the UK economy. Luckily for Euro sellers this rally on the Pound was muted thanks to comments over in America.

A mixture of cold weather, worries about further price rises due to the Pound’s relatively weak buying power for foreign goods, and potentially some very prudent planning for the Christmas period, has seen the largest single increase in UK retail sales figures in 14 years.

Euro and Dollar buyers alike can lay their thanks squarely at the feet of this news this morning. However, the gains even before the intervention of news from the US were lacklustre compared to how markets would normally react to such news. 1.17 was only briefly reached on GBP/EUR and such staggeringly positive news regarding such a large sector of the UK economy normally translates into sustained gains measured in whole cents.

We have become used to markets operating with this form of tunnel vision towards large political events such as the Brexit over economic data, however, the next big market mover is expected next Wednesday with the Autumn Statement in the UK.

As stated it was events in the US which managed to stop what should have been a larger rally for the Pound against the Euro.

Events in the US tend to have a direct impact on the Euro’s value, as USD/EUR is the most heavily traded currency pairing in the world, so any negative news in one currency tends to translate into the opposite effect in the other.

In this instance, hints from the FED that the US would not be raising rates at their latest December meeting allowed the Euro to benefit from lowered confidence in the Dollar.

Given that even positive news is not registering heavily on the currency markets for the Pound, and with the potential for the Autumn Statement to reflect the sudden and heavy borrowing activity announced by Theresa May’s new government, Euro and Dollar buyers may be wise to seize the recent gains made available with the surprise impact of the Trump Presidency before this is likely tested next week.

I strongly recommend that if you have a Dollar or Euro buying or selling requirement you should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk whilst markets are largely inactive overnight to discuss a strategy for your transfer and the options open to you to secure any tempting levels which emerge immediately.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchang on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for anyone planning a foreign currency purchase later in the year and wish to secure these current levels ahead of what is expected to be a tumultous period.

You can also fill out the form below and I will respond to you as soon as I am able.