Tag Archives: GBPUSD exhange rates

Sterling could be in for a very tough Winter…

Sterling has had a truly remarkable year making firm gains against pretty much all currencies and presenting some of the best rates to buy a foreign currency with in years. GBPUSD hit a 5 year high, GBPEUR has hit a two year high (and not far off a 6 year high!) and GBPNZD and GBPAUD are also both at multi year highs… Clearly sterling is faring well but this now begs the question will it continue?

October is looking like a tough month for the pound  with economic releases from September’s data likely to be poor owing to lower business and consumer confidence due to the Scottish referendum. I feel this is likely to feed into the rest of the year and with it interest rate hike expectations (currently expected in April) liable to be pushed back further. Economic growth in the UK is currently running at 0.8% and with house prices not rising as fast as previously I think the need to raise rates will dampen in Q4.

Tomorrow is some very important Eurozone news on Inflation which will be indicative of how much QE we can expect Thursday from the ECB. With so much volatility surrounding this release making some careful plans ready to trade on the news seems sensible.

I couldn’t possibly fit everything important in one post, would you read the whole article anyway? So if you need to consider a currency exchange and wish for further information please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I work as a foreign exchange dealer and we focus on a personal proactive service to help you get the most from the market. Please contact me for more information regarding your situation.

Will sterling continue to rise

The pound remains at elevated levels and it would appear it shall continue to do so. Expectations of Quantitative Easing in the Eurozone next month are keeping the Euro weak and following the dollar’s recent surge investor appetite for favourite the safe haven looks set to remain cooled for the time being.

The pound was looking in serious danger on the back of a possible Yes vote in the referendum but these fears have now cooled with the No vote. There are however significant reasons for concern for GBP weakness down the line with the UK election and the possibility of the EU referendum to follow. These topics could make the Scottish referendum look like a Parish Councillors meeting by comparison…

All in all the news is generally very positive for the pound at present but further gains in the absence of something ‘new’ to impress investors look limited. If you need to buy a foreign currency with sterling capitalising on these extremely impressive levels might be the best course of action. To be notified of any impressive spikes please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

The pound surges in late trading but further losses are expected in the days to come. (Ben Amrany)

Sterling has today had an extremely volatile day’s trading all mainly due to the uncertainty of the Scottish referendum. It is currently playing havoc with the pound and today we have seen a high to low spread against the Euro from 1.2397 to 1.2543 and over a cent high to low against the USD.

The last poll showed there was a 50/50 split but we are expecting an update tomorrow and any signs that the YES vote is ahead once again expect to see further sterling losses. The Swings in the market is going to show how nervous the UK markets are about Scotland voting in favour of independenceand several news reports have highlighted how damning it will be for the UK economy.

Here we have seen a massive increase in the volume of clients buying and selling the pound as the uncertainty is very concerning. With reports that a YES vote could cause the pound to fall by as much as 10% if you are buying or selling sterling you have to ask yourself how much risk to gain ratio you want to take on your exchange because even if a NO vote (which we do expect) happens the pound may only climb by 1-2%. If you take into account what the losses could be it is just not worth the gamble in not exchanging your funds now. This time next month we could be as high as 1.27 or as low as 1.17. This is a real likely spread depending on the outcome and you may be wise just to know how far your funds are going while the rates are still favourable.

So if you are looking at buying or selling a specific currency you may be wise to speak with myself Ben Amrany and I can explain all the options available to you to help you minimise your losses while helping you achieve a much better rate than what the high street banks will offer. You can email me with your contact details and requirement at bma@currencies.co.uk and I will contact you to explain the current market place and  how best to minimise those losses.

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Have sterling gains stalled? Three big reasons to think twice…

There is no shortage of the positive things for the pound at present. It is the only major currency genuinely on course to raise interest rates and the British economy is predicted to be one of the fastest growing in the next few months. Unemployment is falling and the economy is growing, the green shoots have for some finally sprouted…

A quick look up ahead however shows that the path to a stronger pound isn’t quite as clear as some forecasters seem to believe. There are three key elements to look out for.

 – Political Uncertainty – 

Usually ahead of an election a currency weakens. The Scottish Referendum in September still has many unanswered questions and it would be foolish to discount late swing votes. Markets can be fearful creatures and if sentiments turn negative the pound may lose value. Next year is the General Election which could provide plenty of opportunities for GBP weakness. Even though the Bank of England is independent from the Government will rising interest rates be an election topic? Already portrayed as the ‘mean’ party, the Tories may struggle to maintain their economic plan under a new coalition and Labour’s economic plans look very anti – business…

There is also the prospect of the UK leaving the EU, again it is the uncertainty these events present which could undermine GBP gains…

- Rising Interest Rates may derail the economy -

Rising Interest rates could do more harm than good! Property prices are principally rising in the South East, mainly London and this is skewing the market. Other areas of the country are actually seeing prices fall or remain stagnant. Rising Interest rates may serve to undermine recovery in the housing market across the housing market making it more difficult for purchasers to get a mortgage and reducing the disposable income (that is spent in the wider economy helping for example Retail sales) those with mortgages have.

Many commentators have pointed out we are in a new ‘low interest rate’ economy globally. There are drawbacks to this but perhaps the UK needs to be stronger on its feet before interest rates rise.

- A strong pound can be bad for exports and growth prospects -

There have been some of the UK’s biggest companies this week highlighting the detrimental effect the strong pound is having on their profits. Rising interest rates may serve to strengthen the pound further making UK manufacturing and service less competitive in the global economy.

All in all the pound is at multi year highs against many currencies. Assuming rates will remain where they are is a foolish assumption and anyone considering moving larger volumes of currency should note the difference even 1 cent can make on a big volume of money.

If you need to buy or sell a foreign currency we can offer assistance  understanding the market and getting the best rates on your deals. We are a group of specialist currency brokers writing this blog for your help. Please feel free to contact me Jonathan directly to learn more.

jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

 

How much higher can sterling go? Important upcoming events for the pound!

Looking ahead is always fraught with difficulties but sometimes it is easier when you know a little more than the average. Just now sterling is at 1.2613 on GBPEUR and 1.7160 on GBPUSD. Other exchange rates are also at multi year highs giving some well deserved relief for anyone transferring money abroad in recent years! I was helping some clients buying property in Europe at 1.10 a few years ago and I remember businesses buying the USD cheering at being able to get 1.50!

Tomorrow we have a very important release for the UK with the latest labour market statistics including the all important Unemployment rate. With Inflation having unexpectedly risen changes in Average earnings will attract slightly more attention, the prospects for GBP strength on the whole seem high.

Thursday is the all important CPI (Consumer Price Index) Inflation data for the Eurozone which will outline just how justified recent ECB (European Central Bank) actions have been in attempting to quell falling inflation or ‘disinflation’. Sterling may therefore make some further gains against a battered Euro.

Priced In? – Markets have probably been pricing in the prospect of a) good UK data and b) bad Eurozone data so anything that comes out worse than expected for the UK and better than expected for the Eurozone could trigger sharp corrections. Movements of up to one cent should not be ruled out depending on just what happens. I would personally be shooting for better rates to buy a foreign currency towards the end of the week (from tomorrow) in anticipation of some positive UK Unemployment data cementing and even lifting current levels.

Should you have further to hold on you can wait until next Friday when we get the first estimate of UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the UK for Q2. I would personally not be surprised to see the rates tick higher on this release although arguably the good news is already in the market. As with the two releases above for me the risk is to the downside, markets expect positive numbers for the UK. Anything to the contrary could trigger sterling losses.

For more information on how to approach your transaction plus an award winning exchange rate when you do, please speak to me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.

Key reasons for not delaying buying sterling

To readers who have a foreign currency to sell and wish to buy sterling I would not hang around too long. The recent dips in your favour today and yesterday should definitely in my opinion be viewed as a good time to sell. The longer term forecast clearly appears to favour the pound over most currencies and whilst exchange rates are not as good as they were some months and years ago, there is a very strong likelihood it will get worse.

If you need to buy the pound soon or in the future it is probably a good idea to consider a forward fix on the rates to help further reduce the uncertainty. The longer term forecast for the pound is that the UK will raise interest rates well ahead of the rest of the US and the ECB which should result in much higher rates in the future. The big questions of course is when exactly this will happen, some have forecast the move this year for the UK, others early 2015.

For more information on the exact price we could offer to you why not make an enquiry direct with me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Can you really afford to ignore the current exchange rate? 1.2521 on GBPEUR, 1.6955 on GBPUSD and 1.8164 on GBPAUD.

The pound has been boosted further by an unexpected turn of events. At the time of writing we are 1.2521 on GBPEUR, 1.6955 on GBPUSD and 1.8164 on GBPAUD. This just goes to show how nothing should ever be taken for granted on exchange rates and how quickly events can turn. You might not be able to predict the future (nor can we), but we aim to ensure clients are prepared for eventualities with expert market commentary and analysis plus an award winning exchange rate.

At home…

Tomorrow is vital for sterling with the latest Bank of England Minutes. Following Mark Carney’s recent comments, could we expect to see an outside chance of a vote for an interest rate hike? Thursday we have Retail Sales figures and Friday PSNB (Public Sector Net Borrowing) data. All in all the pound should remain supported but last month Retail figures and the PSNB data all knocked confidence slightly by coming in lower than expected. Depending on the data tomorrow from the Bank of England it may be that a worsening situation in Iraq alters sentiments towards the end of the week and sterling may lose ground.

I believe the current excellent rates quoted above should not be readily dismissed in the hope of much higher levels. It may be that there is more to lose than gain from holding on and it is often the greedy who get their fingers burnt… For a quick overview of your transaction and assistance moving funds internationally please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Abroad…

Further afield we have the Federal Reserve in the US clarifying their position on a further extension of the ‘taper’. The significantly improved Labour market reports for the US indicate to me that we will see a further $10bn withdrawal and this has probably been priced into GBPUSD and EURUSD already. In the Eurozone there is little to move the market and I expect the Euro to remain on the backfoot as markets still digest the recent ECB moves to cut interest rates.

The Best Exchange Rates?

This website purports to get you the best exchange rates but what does this mean, how exactly do we do this? Let me explain in a nutshell! We…

- Undercut the banks and other sources. Given a fair shot we buy currency live in the market which gives us scope to negotiate a rate more favourable than banks and other sources.

- Proactively manage your FX exposure by offering a range of tools and options to limit risk. We can offer forecasts specific to your exchange to help you better understand the market and which way things could be headed.

 – Focus on customer service. As well as provide the best rates we ensure all payments go through smoothly, promptly and offer useful information on how to navigate international banks.

GBPEUR is 11 cents higher than its low point of 2013, GBPUSD is 20 cents higher than the low point of 2013 and GBPAUD is 35 cents higher than the low point of 2013. The pound is trading at some truly excellent levels and it is all on the back of speculation of when the Bank of England will raise interest rates. The market will often do whatever is necessary to prove everyone wrong. 2 years ago GBPEUR hit 1.2860 before crashing to 1.14 8 months later. Can you really afford to ignore the current exchange rate?

For some support and assistance with your international money exchanges please contact the author Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk, I look forward to hearing from you and assisting with information and facilitating your exchanges.

Jonathan

 

Sterling hits the big time!

Sterling has hit the big time this year as it shakes off the worst of the last few years and sets sights on the future. The UK’s economic position has improved massively of late and is arguably now one of the worlds leading economies again. Especially when compared to other leading economies and currencies like for example the US and Euro.

There are risks up ahead of course, notably the Scottish Referendum and any further deterioration in the Eurozone economy. On balance we would have to expect sterling to remain well supported and should it manage to avoid the more obvious risks ahead of next year, we could see further strength in the new year as it becomes more apparent the UK’s recovery is underway and the prospect of raising interest rates looms.

Should you have any currency transfers please don’t hesitate to contact us for a forecast on just where the rates could be once your transaction is settled. Getting the best rates through the multiple sources we trade through, we are very well placed to help you maximise any transfers.

 

For more information please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Busy day for sterling

Today the pound has suffered slightly as Average Earnings figures amongst others showed the Unemployment situation in the UK isn’t quite as buoyant as maybe some investors had hoped. This is good news for anyone who needs to buy the pound as the currency outlook would appear to favour GBP strength, if therefore you can sneak in with a transaction on this spike it is good news.

If you have any transactions to consider selling sterling we could see moves higher soon so do make contact to be kept up to date. For those looking to buy sterling making plans sooner really would appear to be the wisest move since as the economic conditions in the UK improve we should see the pound strengthen.

If you have any transactions to consider please let us know.

 

Busy week on exchange rates! What will happen to your exchange?

Recent positive sterling moves have been exacerbated by improvements in the currency outlook for the pound. Services data today showed yet further improvements which should mean we expect only further GBP strength against most currencies, but not all! Read on to get a quick overview of important things to note regarding your pair. For a more detailed outlook and information on making international payments at better exchanges rates than banks and other sources please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPUSD – The USD is on the back foot following some bad GDP data last week. Despite an improving employment outlook the USD still stands to lose out in the future and I am sure we will see 1.70 soon. The chance of any US Interest rate hike is now miles off in the future, well behind that of the UK and the pound hence the improvements on this pairing. The USD will find favour however whether from Ukraine uncertainty or an improving economy so don’t hold out too long…

GBPEUR - The Euro appears weak against sterling but is actually very strong. If you look at the Euro against the US dollar and Australian dollar you can see it is at historically very strong levels. Much will be outlined by Thursday’s ECB decision, will they look to weaken the Euro? One interesting fact to note is that the ECB view EURUSD at 1.40 as unfavourably strong so if the trend of Euro strength, USD weakness continues the ECB may speculate over intervention into the market. Watch this space!

GBPAUD - The RBA have achieved their primary goal of weakening the Aussie, indeed this has been very successful. They are no longer targeting a weaker Aussie and improvements in the Chinese economy warrant a firmer Australian currency.

The pound looks set to be the main beneficiary of improved economic sentiments. All in all if you are planning to buy currency soon with sterling, taking stock of the current market is very sensible. We can forward buy currency and offer a range of options to limit your exposure to the market. A quick phone call or email to us really is a wise move as we are specialists with many years experience in the planning and execution of your international payments.

Hope to hear from you soon!

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

+44 (0) 1494 787 478

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