Tag Archives: GBPUSD exhange rates

Sterling at the Mercy of EU Referendum Polls (Daniel Johnson)

Yesterday The pound gained strength against the majority of major currencies. This was due to impressive retail sales data, positive inflation figures and the remain camp gaining significant momentum in the polls for the EU referendum. GBP/EUR hit a twelve week high at 1.32. GBP/USD 1.47 and GBP/AUD 2.05.

A Daily Telegraph poll show that 55% of the UK population wish to stay, 42% wish to leave with the remainder undecided. What was surprising however was that the remain camp had support from the majority of over 65s. Their findings also revealed that those in the undecided camp were twice as likely to vote to remain in the EU than to leave.

The Institute of Fiscal studies also announced that if the UK were to leave the EU the UK would face an extra two years of austerity. GDP would decline and there would be additional borrowing costs which would result in losses of £20-40bn.

The polls will be a key factor as to Sterling market position up until the day of the vote 23rd June. It is important to note that Sterling crashed a few days before the Scottish referendum and the general election.

We have seen a slight decline today for Sterling against most currencies due to poor GDP figures which has been caused by businesses unwilling to trade due to the uncertainty created by a possible Brexit. GBP/CAD fell more significantly due to the increase in oil price.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and by doing so I can beat any competitors rate of exchange. I am willing to provide a free trading strategy to try and maximise your return. Fell free to drop me an e-mail at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Simply let me know the currency you are trading, time scale and a ball park figure as to the size of the trade. Thank you for reading my blog.

Positive narrative for Sterling boosts Euro and Dollar buying rates (Joshua Privett)

Sterling had a very productive mid-week session on international currency trading, most notably with Euro buying rates  reaching above 1.30 for the first time since February.

Two consecutive days of positive economic sentiment were the driving force for this breath of fresh air for the Pound, which had been in a period of relative stability preceding the previous week. Again this was seen most evidently on GBP/EUR exchange rates, where average changes since the beginning of the year of 1.5 Cents daily gave way to almost two consecutive weeks of buying Euro rates trading within 1.26-1.27.

Certainly this was a relief at our office to see some stability given back to the market place, but we empathize with the multitude at that time who were faced with a difficult decision – where are the rates going to go from here?

This was partially answered mid-week by the gifted movements for anyone holding Sterling and who are considering purchasing a foreign currency. Positive retail sales, wage and employment figures produced a brighter view towards the UK economy and the Pound, a surprising phenomenon this close to the Referendum.

Yet the overwhelming consensus on the marketplace is that this is not the beginning of a new trend. Most of the positive data has been attributed to an un-seasonally hot April (albeit patchy) which allowed industries normally dormant until late May or June to wake early and start contributing to UK performance. This explains why a sudden rise in retail sales coincided with a rise in employment.

This positive narrative on the Pound is set to change next week, when markets are reminded of the stagnant growth figures currently being posted by the UK economy.

Last month was the first time in nearly three years that UK growth was outperformed by the Eurozone, growing 0.4% in the first three months of 2016 compared to that of the Eurozone who enjoyed 0.6% according to the Office of National Statistics. Another look at these figures from an independent body is set to confirm this on Tuesday and Thursday for the UK and Eurozone respectively.

Growth is key. Growth shows an investment is worthwhile, and without this vote of confidence the slide on buying Euro and Dollar rates which occurred on Friday after the two big days on Wednesday and Thursday are set to continue.

No-one thought that buying rates would see this resurgence ahead of the Referendum, particularly whilst vote splits are still close enough to be counted as in the margin of error. There was a net gain of 2 cents on GBP/EUR last week, 1.3 cents on GBP/USD, and 4.5 cents on GBP/AUD, which should not be sniffed at in this current market.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a buying Euro or Dollar requirements should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk.

If you outline your requirement and the time span within which you plan to, or need to, conduct this, then we can begin a discussion to determine the most suitable option open to you through a currency exchange specialist which suits you with a view to maximizing your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and a brief conversation could save you thousands on your transfer.

Euro and Dollar sellers can also get in contact to have a similar discussion, though my thoughts will sway towards waiting for the news next week to re-coup the losses incurred to you over the last week of trading. Certainly, with the near two cent losses on Friday’s trading for GBP/EUR in particular, the momentum is in your favour.

 

Boost to buying Euro and Dollar rates for second consecutive day (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has now broken through several benchmarks on most major currencies, with buying Euro rates breaching 1.30, and GBP/AUD now well above 2.0 for the first time since February.

The Pound’s recovery has caught the eye of many potential buyers. GBP/EUR was almost 9 cents lower only a month ago, GBP/USD has now established itself north of 1.45, and GBP/AUD has gained near on 20 cents in a single month.

A combination of political and economic factors are the root cause for this sudden turnaround.

Economically speaking the UK has had a fantastic few days with all of the good news of the month seeming to come out within a relatively short period. Wages, unemployment, and most recently this morning retail sales figures have seen positive news eclipse some of the UK’s questionable growth data released at the start of the month.

Furthermore, some confident strides ahead for the remain camp have made some investors a little more confident about the outcome of the looming Referendum. But the mistakes in the polls during the May election haven’t been forgotten, and with the traditional margin of error being plus or minus 3%, there’s still not enough conviction for Sterling to breach much higher for the moment, which explains why the Pound’s rally tailed off this afternoon.

With no economic news of note out tomorrow and no releases on the polls until next week, this very gradual negative loss on buying rates for anyone holding Sterling will likely continue as profit taking after the big movements this week governs changes in buying rates for Euros and Dollars.

Unless the Remain camp gains a hefty lead the Pound is likely to be coming under further pressure as we edge closer to the vote itself. With debates and speeches lined up for the beginning of the month, it’s fair to say that the heavy campaign season hasn’t even begun. Anyone waiting to buy foreign currency, particularly after the opportunities gifted to many buyers over the last 7 trading days, has to have a very strong economic argument if they are expecting many further gains on the marketplace in the short-term.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement between now and Referendum should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to start a dialogue around a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your foreign currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and a brief discussion could save you thousands on your transfer. These current levels available today can also be fixed in place for any planned transfers in the future to completely avoid the risk of waiting for the exchange rates available to you later in the year when you wish to conduct your transfer.

Anyone considering buying Sterling with a foreign currency can also do the same, and I will explain how best to approach the coming weeks to ride the expected movements in your favour to their completion.

Boost to Euro and Dollar buying rates from Sterling side (Joshua Privett)

With the Referendum looming, today may be one of the few occasions each month where we see rates move up from positive news on the Sterling side rather than poor news overseas to make buying Euros and Dollars alike a cheaper prospect.

Average earnings and a second look at the unemployment rate for the first three months of this year will be the main news from the UK early on this morning, which is likely why the Pound is already marginally up against most of its major currency pairings.

As this is a second look, essentially a revision now that more data has arrived, markets are not expecting heavy movements from this. But average earnings will likely be the main focus for the markets.

The data has been collated from April, and due to the emergence of sunny spells the retail and tourist sectors will likely have seen a bump. This is one of the more seasonal increases for the performance of the UK economy and thus a bit more certain than what currency markets are used to dealing with – explaining why markets are already beginning to move ahead of the event.

Euro buyers however will not be the clear winners today. Later on the Dollar will likely be coming under heavy pressure following the release of the most recent minutes from the FED’S meeting this month.

This is the meeting where they already chose not to raise interest rates once more, and markets are becoming increasingly disillusioned as none of the planned four interest rate hikes this year have yet to take place.  

Their most recent excuse has been due to the economic backlash of a potential British exit from the EU which is worth waiting to react to. After this, excuses about the looming election seem likely to follow. If very dovish tones are confirmed during the meeting then it’s likely GBP/USD will be recovering some of 4 cent losses recorded this month.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me today on 01494 787 478. Simply ask the reception team to be put through to Joshua and we can discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and current levels on exchange rates ahead of the Referendum can actually be fixed ahead of time, in order to avoid the expected falls on the currency markets as the vote looms closer.

Euro and Dollar sellers can also reach out to discuss how to buy at more favourable levels as June 23rd approaches. Dollar sellers in particular may be wise to reach out sooner rather than later, as the above describes that your situation is less clear cut. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

Major headwinds likely for Sterling moving forward (Joseph Wright)

From this point onward its likely that ‘Brexit’ talks will dominate the headlines and really begin to drive the value of Sterling exchange rates as we approach the EU Referendum on the 23rd of June.

Yesterday there were some important news releases out of the UK, and despite there being no change to the voting patterns of the 9 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members with regards to Interest Rate changes, the subsequent news conference offered some insight into the concerns of the Bank of England should the public vote to leave the Eurozone next month.

Despite the use of numerous bearish terms and language within the speech afterwards such as ‘recession, deflation, rate cuts and rising unemployment’, Sterling actually gained on most major currency pairs as the markets welcomed the bearishness from Mark Carney and the MPC regarding a Post Brexit Britain.

Market reactions like this just highlight the importance of next months vote, and I think anyone with a currency requirement involving Sterling should be well aware how the markets are affected by Brexit based announcements and changes within the polls.

Personally, I’m expecting GBP to fall in the lead up to the 23rd of June and I consider the current levels to be quite favourable for those looking to convert GBP into the likes of the USD or the EUR as I expect levels in the lower 1.20’s for GBPEUR and in the lower 1.40’s for GBPUSD around the middle of next month.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy a foreign currency it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call in and ask to speak with me on 01494 787 478.

Buying Euro and Dollar rates see little net change ahead of a busy Tuesday (Joshua Privett)

My article over the weekend detailed expectations for little change on buying Euro or Dollar exchange rates today. Without any performance data set to emerge there was only a likelihood of slight losses on GBP/EUR and GBP/USD as a continuation of the negative momentum established for the Pound on Friday.

The day certainly ended up finishing this way, but a flurry of trading activity saw significant rises before the falls back to where the day began. These kind of movements are likely due to member states of the Eurozone conducting backlogged transactions after a few bank holidays coinciding and clogging up the currency markets with delayed transfers.

Large movements without any net change to GBP/EUR or GBP/USD certainly prove there was no true change in the perception of Sterling’s value, or the likes of the Euro of Dollar

Currently the Referendum, though currently an anchor on the Pound’s value, has faded into the background as the monthly flood of economic performance data is the key factor in the swaying buying Euro and Dollar rates.

This explains last weeks net loss of 3 cents on GBP/EUR following near 3 year lows in manufacturing and construction output, and this week, the negative tone on the UK’s slowing economy will likely keep Euro buying rates in particular on this negative trajectory.

The only reason why GBP/USD isn’t experiencing the same level of falls is because their economy is slowing as well, with employment gains across the Atlantic coming in at 25% less than expected last week as one example of this.

By contrast the Eurozone is flourishing from a year of cheap credit, and cash injections into the economy. Last week’s data also showed that growth in the Euro outstripped the UK for the first quarter of 2016, and their own manufacturing figures to be released tomorrow will likely reflect this and bolster confidence in the single currency.

This trend will likely continue on Thursday, as the Bank of England are set to vote unanimously for the third month in a row not to hike interest rates in the UK economy, with each of the previous occasions resulting in the Pound losing its attractiveness.

Euro buyers must remember that only two weeks ago GBP/EUR rates were almost 5 cents lower than what is currently available. Whilst those with Dollars to buy may see some more attractive levels emerge because the situation is more complex, Euro buyers face an underperforming UK economy against a relatively thriving Eurozone compared to the absolute lows of 2015, as well as a looming Referendum.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk for a free, competitive quote on your transfer, and to discuss your options and develop a strategy to maximise your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and anyone committed to buying Euros over the next few months, but are worried about where the exchange rates may journey too in the meantime, can actually fix the exchange rates as they are ahead currently with a small deposit on your transfer.

Euro and Dollar sellers can do the same. For Euro sellers it would be prudent to explore how to exploit any peaks which emerge in the time period you have before you complete your transfer. Dollar sellers we can simply discuss the current premium set on being able to move quickly, as you are currently subject to evolving situations on both sides of the Atlantic.

Please feel free to also call me in the morning on my direct line: 01494 787 478. If I am on the phone please ask the reception team will answer, simply ask to be put through to Joshua and I will try to free up my line. A brief conversation could save you thousands on your transfer.

 

Buying Euro rates in the spotlight (Joshua Privett)

The second week of May will see exchange rates for buying Euros as the one to watch for Sterling’s pairings, particularly since GBP/EUR was close to reaching 1.25 once more during Friday afternoon’s trading.

The first two weeks of every month see a flood of economic performance data coming through for how each major country performed the previous month. The value of the currency then fluctuates accordingly.

In this period, we have seen the politics of the Referendum take a back-seat when governing the value of the Pound, and has been one of the few occasions where buying rates for Euros and Dollars have improved since the start of the year, with the Pound given the opportunity to shine from better than expected economic performance.

However, since the start of March this Referendum and the underwhelming figures posted for the UK economy have created a double-edged sword which at one point saw GBP/EUR rates hit 22 month lows.

The first week of the month saw this trend continue. Near 3 year lows in construction and manufacturing as a result of the Tata Steel crisis, slowing global demand, and intermittent weather in April, saw buying rates for Euros fall by three cents.

A slight recovery on Thursday was eclipsed by matching losses on Friday, and momentum has now shifted in a negative direction ahead of next week.

Monday by all accounts should be quiet. No major economic performance data is expected to be released and sway either the Pound or the Euro’s value.

As such this downward pressure on buying Euro rates firmly established last week should continue and likely be reinforced by a heavy amount of Eurozone data on Tuesday which financial markets will be forced to digest.

This will be their own industrial and manufacturing production figures, and unlike the UK’s, this has been a burgeoning sector since the beginning of the year.

The Eurozone has attracted more foreign investment in the first three months of 2016 than the entire year of 2015, which likely accounts for why last week growth figures for the Eurozone outstripped the UK’s for the first time in years.

A second look at growth for the first quarter of 2016 for both the Eurozone and the UK on Thursday will likely reinforce this surprising turnaround in fortune from an economy on the verge of being split-up by Greece only 9 months ago, and keep GBP/EUR firmly under pressure.

The silver lining, which I understand is hard to see for many Euro buyers, is that we are still more than 4 cents higher than the absolute lows of April for buying Euro rates, thanks to the now faded memory of Obama’s intervention in the EU Referendum.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me over the weekend when markets are closed on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options open to you in order to maximise your Euro return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels for Euros can actually be fixed in place ahead of any requirements to settle on a business transaction, or house purchase, in a month or three months time to avoit the pontential falls on the currency markets.

If you detail your requirement in an email, alongside the best number to reach you on come Monday morning, I can contact you personally to discuss your situation and the various options open to you through a currency exchange specialist. These are all geared to manage your risk in what is almost certainly going to be the most volatile point of the year for buying Euro rates.

A brief conversation could save you thousands, and anyone with a Euro selling requirement can also get in contact.

I firmly believe that the sub 1.20 level will be tested in the run-up to the vote in June unless the Remain camp establishes some form of commanding lead. However, if you do not have the opportunity to wait until then, I can outline your options to you in order to seize any peaks which emerge in the meatime within the time period you have to complete your transfer.

Please also feel free to get in touch on Monday morning on 01494 787 478, and simply ask the reception team for Joshua.

 

Buying Euros and Dollar exchange rates set for dramatic end to the week (Joshua Privett)

For anyone buying Euros or Dollars this week certainly you would have felt the full range of emotions as GBP/EUR or GBP/USD dropped, rose or remained tentatively static as the week progressed.

GBP/EUR was the most volatile of the two, seeing 3.5 Cent falls to begin the week which were marginally offset yesterday with gains of 1 Cent as markets stabilised once more. The driving force which pushed the Pound’s value down further was the news of near 3 year lows in production for both the manufacturing and construction sectors released Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.

Today is one of the more volatile days of the month for GBP/EUR and GBP/USD exchange rates, and this is all due to employment data to be released from the US economy at midday today.

The US economy is the largest in the world, and with employment figures being one of the biggest determinant of any currency’s value, there are always ripples across the financial markets from this particular release. You even see courses online publishing ‘how to trade on US non-farm payrolls’ because a huge amount of movement is almost guaranteed.

Additionally, as the USD/EUR is the most heavily traded currency pairing in the world, whenever the USD strengthens or weakens, you tend to get the opposite effect in the Euro, as vast quantities of capital being moved artificially inflate or deflate the value of both currencies.

In this instance, we are expecting lower figures for the US economy, and as a result the Dollar weakness which should bolster the Euro. Markets are quite certain of this because unofficial employment figures released on Tuesday reflected a jobs increase 25% less than previously forecasted. This was another reason why Sterling gained against the Dollar but lost out against the Euro that day.

With the above in mind it may be wise for anyone with a buying Euro requirement to move sooner rather than later this morning, whilst anyone with a Dollar buying requirement could wait until this afternoon for any tempting opportunities to emerge.

I strongly recommend in particular that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me this morning on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and if your buying requirement is not for a few weeks or months and you wish to seize these current highs ahead of the Referendum, these current buying levels can be fixed in place as they are today for a small deposit on your transfer. A brief conversation could save you thousands on your transfer.

Those with a Dollar buying requirement, or a Euro selling requirement can also get in contact and I can explain how best to ride the expected movements in your favour to any peaks within the time period you have to complete your transfer. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

Is the bullish run for GBP exchange rates now over? (Joseph Wright)

As the end of the week approaches it would seem like Sterling’s rebound is coming to an end, as across the board Sterling is generally down today as it was yesterday as well.

Sterling has recently been boosted by a number of world leaders such as IMF managing director Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and US President Barack Obama all suggesting that Britain is better off remaining within the Eurozone, and this has been reflected within the most recent ‘Brexit’ polls as the ‘remain’ camp are seeing a significant lead and this has boosted risk sentiment towards the UK moving forward and therefore, Sterling strength.

Those looking for the best time to convert Sterling into Euro’s may wish to consider doing that sooner rather than later, as since GBPEUR tested the 1.2900 trading level a few times earlier this week, it’s since been on a slow decline downwards which is something I’m expecting to continue in the lead up to the EU Referendum on the 23rd of June.

Although Sterling’s upwards trend has begun to slow against the Dollar, the slowdown has been far less abrupt than GBPEUR’s and I think we could see some further strength in the rate of cable before market jitters and political uncertainty once again take over in the Referendums lead up. I’m not expecting to see the inter-bank rate go higher than 1.50 before June the 23rd but I do think it could test the late 1.40’s before returning to its longer term downward trend.

In recent times Sterling has performed well on UK bank holidays due to the thin volumes traded. Those with a interest in a strengthening Pound will hope the currency get’s off to a good start off the back of this as the beginning of May is going to be busy on the financial data front, with plenty of scope for volatility and potential Sterling weakness.

Next week see’s the release of US Non-Farm Payroll Figures, US Manufacturing, AUD Interest Rate Decision, EU Producer Price figures and US Unemployment data just to name a few of the biggest potential movers of currency markets. Although none of the data sets mentioned apply specifically to the UK economy, all have the potential to swing GBP based currency pairs so they’re worth paying attention to as the currency market is a zero sum game and there will always winners or losers.

If you would like to discuss the weeks major events, or an upcoming currency requirement you have involving GBP, it’s worth getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to take advantage of award winning exchange rates and high levels of client security. You can also speak to me over the phone by calling 01494 787 478 and asking for Joseph.

GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD all rise before the weekend (Joshua Privett)

Buying rates for Euros and Dollars saw some truly uplifting gains ahead of the weekend, with GBP/EUR being the standout performer, reaching 1.28 for the first time in almost two months.

Euro buyers, and anyone with GBP/USD, or GBP/AUD requirements, can lay their thanks for this turnaround squarely at the feet of Obama’s visit to the UK, and the overall positive impacts markets feel this will have on the likelihood of the UK remaining part of the EU.

Obama himself is even more popular than our own PM here, and his firm representation of the international community’s support for a Britain stronger in Europe is fully expected to translate into votes.

Particularly since his additional statements over the weekend that a UK outside of the EU would go to the back of the queue for trade deals with the US – the decision to leave is now a graver one.

At least, this is clearly how markets reacted to the news, which is why Sterling was up against all major currencies.

Polls are, however, still alarmingly close. Most recently it was 39% apiece for the Leave and Remain camps, with 12% of the population undecided and the rest likely not to vote.

Once May arrives companies will have to seriously consider their financial exposure in the run up to the June vote. We already saw mass sell-offs of the Pound in February when Boris Johnson joined the Leave campaign, and any repeats will see similar falls on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD as demand for Sterling wavers.

Over the weekend markets will be closed but recent poll data will be released for markets to trade on and react to come Monday morning. Obama’s visit may simply result in a short-term bump as he leaves the UK later toda.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me directly on jjp@currencies.co.uk

If you email me with a brief description of your upcoming need for currency over the next few months, and the best number to reach you on come Monday morning, I can then contact you directly once markets open.

I can convey how the most recent poll data has effected trading, and whether the more negative tone of the latter part of Obama’s visit will cause any reverse in trend as the week continues for Euro and Dollar buyers alike. We can then discuss a strategy for your transfer based on this to maximise your Euro and Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and Euro or Dollar sellers can also get in contact to discuss your options .