Tag Archives: GBPUSD exhange rates

How far can the pound fall?

The pound has actually made some very small gains today but the outlook remains grim in my opinion. Despite the markets bouncing off the bottom today I do not think there is going to be a huge amount to be cheerful about and the rally of this morning quickly halted. The UK has no Prime Minister, the EU say there will be no special deal for the UK and business confidence and investment is down. There is a harsh choice for the next PM will it be abandoning free movement of people or retaining access to the single markets. According to the EU we cannot have both! If you are considering a currency exchange (£10,000 over only bank to bank exchanges please) please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to keep up with the latest news on how the pound is performing.

How much lower will GBPUSD drop?

The problem on this pair is the US Election is not far away which is bound to lead to uncertainty on the exchange rate. The prospect of a Trump Presidency has in my mind not been properly factored into the dollar. The Brexit vote also makes a US Interest rate hike less likely which I feel is not being reflected on the pair. I expect this rate to trade between 1.30 – 1.40 until August before moving back to 1.40-1.50 August to September. From there the picture is less clear but a move back above 1.50 could not be ruled out. If you have any USD transfers to consider the USD is almost at a 30 year high against the pound. To understand the latest movements please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPEUR hit 1.25?

For Euro buyers this is the question I am being asked most. Well I think Greek concerns and worries may resurface in the next few months and a top of 1.25 is possible, the negative impact of Brexit is also hurting the Euro. But I think sterling will be the main loser and would call lows in the 1.10-1.15 range up to September. From there much will depend on how Brexit negotiations but I think the pound will remain weak until we have certainty. If you have any Euro transfers on amounts above £10,000 (eg property sale of business transfer) please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information on securing the best GBPEUR and EURGBP exchange rates.

Brexit may well not prove to be too bad in the long run but it is clear to me the impact on sterling exchange rates still has much further to run, we still know very little about what to expect next. Any signs of an interest rate cut or further Quantitative Easing could easily send the pound lower and I would be most worried about this prospect towards the end of this year or early next.

Sterling is at multi year lows against GBPAUD, GBPCAD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF and GBPZAR..  Make sure you don’t miss out..

  This aware winning blog has enabled tens of thousands of people globally to save money on their currency exchanges through helpful, friendly knowledgeable information from experienced currency brokers. As one of the Chief contributors here I would be delighted to hear from any of you wish for information at this important historic time for the pounds. An email will only take you a minute and the savings on offer could be thousands, what have you to lose. If you have a currency exchange to consider and would like to learn the latest exchange rate forecast please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

Will the Pound get weaker?

I’ve received a large number of emails this morning asking whether the Pound will weaken, it is of my opinion that the Pound will weaken in the foreseeable.

There are a number of factors that we need to consider now that the UK has decided to withdraw from the EU. Firstly, we do not have a date for when the UK will officially withdraw from the EU, this creates an extended period of uncertainty for the UK, which could have implications for businesses. Organisations have to make key decisions on how they manage business policies, expenditures, and expansion. Trade could change, prices could change, employment could change.

How will expatriates deal with the news? Will they return to the UK over fears of losing their rights? How will this impact international estate agencies?

But the bigger question, how will this impact the British economy? If the BoE, the majority of economists and financial institutes all agree that a Brexit could pose negative implications on the UK, what impact will this have on the Pound.

If we look at the timeline of events, the Pound slumped on a leave vote, David Cameron stepped down, Scotland are in the midst of calling their own Referendum and this is only just the beginning.

A new Prime Minister will be elected to trigger article 50, the UK will then be given a deal by the EU which the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble states, is unlikely to be a good one.

In my honest opinion, based on the above alone, Pound Sterling may fall further and if I had a large amount of Euro’s or US Dollar’s to buy, I would be doing it sooner rather than later.

What does an EU withdrawal mean for the Pound?

This morning is a historic event for the EU, as much as it is the UK. The first country ever to withdraw from the EU. David Cameron this morning has given his speech to the British public announcing his resignation – rightly or wrongly – stating that the British people need a new leadership to take them through the withdrawal process.

What does this mean for the UK and more importantly, how will this impact the Pound?

The Pound slumped 11% on the outcome of the vote, FTSE fell sharply but both have stabilised in the early hours of trading. GBPEUR rates remain at 1.25, GBPUSD rates fell sharply from 1.50 to 1.32, lows not seen for 3 decades, before regaining ground to 1.39.

The outlook for the Pound looks bearish, David Cameron’s resignation casts further uncertainty over the future of the UK and until we have some clues as to what deal the EU will give the UK, the Pound could continue to fall in the foreseeable.

Those looking to buy pounds are likely to have an extended period of opportunity until it’s understood the wider implications of a Brexit. In the mean-time, existing agreements with the EU will remain frozen until article 50 is triggered. With the announcement of David Cameron’s resignation, this may not be for some time.

That being said, the UK is vulnerable to economic releases, changes in consumer spending and given that inflation is 0.4%, there are concerns by some that the UK may fall into recession.

Mark Carney of the BoE warned of the potential implications of a Brexit, so have a number of economists, business leaders and financial institutes.

As a Pound buyer, a window of opportunity has opened for you.

The Pound’s recovery is contingent on a number of factors. Who will take over as Prime Minister? What deal will the EU provide? Will the UK suffer economically as a result? How will this impact the global economy?

There are such a large number of factors that could impact Sterling and whether you are buying or selling, rates are still attractive either side with GBPEUR rates now at 1.25 and GBPUSD are moving back up to 1.40. The next few weeks and months ahead are shrouded in uncertainty and I would therefore advise you email me at rdl@currencies.co.uk if you have any concerns about the Pound weakening further.

Anticipated EU Referendum outcome to continue to drive GBP exchange rates (Joseph Wright)

This time next week we’ll know the outcome of the EU Referendum, and I think it’s fair to say that we can expect a bumpy ride for Sterling exchange rates between now and then.

The downward pressure on the Pound would seem to have eased somewhat over the past few days, and this could be due to the lack of campaigning from either the ‘leave’ or ‘remain’ camps after the tragic death of politician Jo Cox. Additionally, yesterday the Bank of England’s Interest Rate decision went largely unnoticed which was unsurprising. It would be a huge shock to have seen the BoE make a change so close to the vote especially after the Fed Reserve over in the US has made us aware that ‘Brexit’ uncertainty has been one of the main reasons that there’s been no changes to US Interest Rates recently.

The quiet couple of days for the Pound have seen it climb slightly, and at the time of writing the central level is 1.2685 which is comfortably above the average of roughly around 1.25 over the past 10 years.

From a personal standpoint I believe the Pound is overvalued if only slightly. I’m surprised to see the central level above 1.25 this close to the Referendum and I think anyone selling Pounds in order to purchase Euro’s can currently do so at favourable levels considering the monumental event next week.

Despite the relatively quiet couple of days we are seeing sharp movements of sudden whole cent gains or losses at times during the day, and I think we can expect to see an increase in volatility levels next week.

If you have an upcoming currency exchange to make involving the Pound, feel free to get in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call in on 01494 787 478 and ask reception for Joe.

Brexit Update (Daniel Charles Johnson)

If you have a currency requirement involving Sterling the EU referendum is a key factor in your trade. Swings in the polls are influencing the value of Sterling heavily. The Leave camp currently have the momentum in the majority of polls which is why we have seen the pound weaken against the majority of major currencies. It is worth keeping in mind that the bookies still have the remain camp as favorites. Betfair currently have the remain camp in front at 72%. The bookies put their money where their mouth is and called both the Scottish referendum and general election correctly.

If you have a substantial transfer to make I think the safe option is to hedge. The last thing you want to do is put all your eggs in one basket and then find out your 15 cents worse off after the referendum.

GBP/EUR

The trend at present seems to be a a weakening pound due to the majority of polls showing the leave camp in front. If you are buying Euros I would set a realistic target rate of 1.29 to move. Sellers, If we hit the 1.26s. This morning at 9.30 we will see UK trade balance figures where I expect a slight decline, although I would not expect see too much market reaction.  Look out for UK inflation data on Tuesday at 09.30 which has been know to cause volatility and retails sales figures on Thursday at 09.30. There is the BOE interest decision on Thursday but I expect this to be a non-event.

GBP/USD

Due to global economic uncertainty and the uncertainty created by the general election I think an interest rate hike this year is off the cards. If I was a USD seller I would be tempted to move at current levels. GBP/USD has only fallen below 1.40 on a handful of occasions in the last 40yrs so 1.44 is definitely not a bad time to move.

GBP/AUD

The Aussie has had a prominent rally of late, but I think it will now lose steam. After record GDP and unemployment figures I think it will be difficult to have further gains. The RBA have indicated their wish to weaken the currency and with a general election around the corner I would expect to see the Aussie lose ground.

If you have a currency transfer short term it is vitally important that you are in touch with an experienced broker. I constantly have me eyes on the market and I am in a position to not only guarantee the best rates of exchange against any competitor but also assist in timing your trade to maximise your return. There are contract options available that can be used to suit your individual needs, please do get in touch for further information by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

3 weeks to the Referendum!

Exchange rates have slipped dramatically in the last few months as investors fears over the EU Referendum increase. Just what can we expect in the coming 3 weeks ahead of this historic occasion? Well I think it is likely that exchange rates will continue to fall in the coming 3 weeks as we get nearer to the Referendum and the pound is likely to retest the lows that have already been seen this year. The market will have to take account of the possibility of the UK leaving the EU and this will need to be reflected in the price of the currency as we approach the Referendum date. The polls are going to be the main drivers on the exchange rate as we get closer to the event I expect the ranges for pound sterling exchange rates to fluctuate in the recent bands that we have become so used to.

I predict GBPEUR to trade between 1.18 (Leave) and 1.40 (Remain) whilst GBPUSD should trade between 1.33 (Leave) to 1.52 (Remain). GBPAUD will I believe perform in a range of 1.82 (Leave) – 2.12 (Remain). There is likely to be big swings in the coming weeks as we the polls suggest different outcomes. Only last week Remain were leading by 60% according to some, now Leave are in the running at 52% majority.

Making predictions based on these polls is quite frankly very dangerous. The largest polls are only ever sample a few thousand candidates which means they are simply not very representative. The reason the polls got the UK General Election so badly wrong last year was the fact the polls weren’t polling enough of society to really get a true gauge on voters intentions. With this vote being more uncertain than the General Election the scope for big unexpected swings is massive.

The best way to manage the uncertainty is to keep up to date with the latest movements and utilise some of the expertise we have at our disposal including the Limit Order. This allows you to automatically purchase currency once the exchange rate hits a level you have pre determined. A forward contract allows you to fix a level up to 18 month in advance of needing to make a payment removing the risk of future exchange rate fluctuations impacting the value of your currency purchase.

In the words of a great motivational speaker ‘the best way to predict the future is to create it’, leaving everything in the lap of the gods is not normally a sensible strategy when dealing with the currency markets. If you would like to learn more about your options and the process please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

Sterling at the Mercy of EU Referendum Polls (Daniel Johnson)

Yesterday The pound gained strength against the majority of major currencies. This was due to impressive retail sales data, positive inflation figures and the remain camp gaining significant momentum in the polls for the EU referendum. GBP/EUR hit a twelve week high at 1.32. GBP/USD 1.47 and GBP/AUD 2.05.

A Daily Telegraph poll show that 55% of the UK population wish to stay, 42% wish to leave with the remainder undecided. What was surprising however was that the remain camp had support from the majority of over 65s. Their findings also revealed that those in the undecided camp were twice as likely to vote to remain in the EU than to leave.

The Institute of Fiscal studies also announced that if the UK were to leave the EU the UK would face an extra two years of austerity. GDP would decline and there would be additional borrowing costs which would result in losses of £20-40bn.

The polls will be a key factor as to Sterling market position up until the day of the vote 23rd June. It is important to note that Sterling crashed a few days before the Scottish referendum and the general election.

We have seen a slight decline today for Sterling against most currencies due to poor GDP figures which has been caused by businesses unwilling to trade due to the uncertainty created by a possible Brexit. GBP/CAD fell more significantly due to the increase in oil price.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and by doing so I can beat any competitors rate of exchange. I am willing to provide a free trading strategy to try and maximise your return. Fell free to drop me an e-mail at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Simply let me know the currency you are trading, time scale and a ball park figure as to the size of the trade. Thank you for reading my blog.

Positive narrative for Sterling boosts Euro and Dollar buying rates (Joshua Privett)

Sterling had a very productive mid-week session on international currency trading, most notably with Euro buying rates  reaching above 1.30 for the first time since February.

Two consecutive days of positive economic sentiment were the driving force for this breath of fresh air for the Pound, which had been in a period of relative stability preceding the previous week. Again this was seen most evidently on GBP/EUR exchange rates, where average changes since the beginning of the year of 1.5 Cents daily gave way to almost two consecutive weeks of buying Euro rates trading within 1.26-1.27.

Certainly this was a relief at our office to see some stability given back to the market place, but we empathize with the multitude at that time who were faced with a difficult decision – where are the rates going to go from here?

This was partially answered mid-week by the gifted movements for anyone holding Sterling and who are considering purchasing a foreign currency. Positive retail sales, wage and employment figures produced a brighter view towards the UK economy and the Pound, a surprising phenomenon this close to the Referendum.

Yet the overwhelming consensus on the marketplace is that this is not the beginning of a new trend. Most of the positive data has been attributed to an un-seasonally hot April (albeit patchy) which allowed industries normally dormant until late May or June to wake early and start contributing to UK performance. This explains why a sudden rise in retail sales coincided with a rise in employment.

This positive narrative on the Pound is set to change next week, when markets are reminded of the stagnant growth figures currently being posted by the UK economy.

Last month was the first time in nearly three years that UK growth was outperformed by the Eurozone, growing 0.4% in the first three months of 2016 compared to that of the Eurozone who enjoyed 0.6% according to the Office of National Statistics. Another look at these figures from an independent body is set to confirm this on Tuesday and Thursday for the UK and Eurozone respectively.

Growth is key. Growth shows an investment is worthwhile, and without this vote of confidence the slide on buying Euro and Dollar rates which occurred on Friday after the two big days on Wednesday and Thursday are set to continue.

No-one thought that buying rates would see this resurgence ahead of the Referendum, particularly whilst vote splits are still close enough to be counted as in the margin of error. There was a net gain of 2 cents on GBP/EUR last week, 1.3 cents on GBP/USD, and 4.5 cents on GBP/AUD, which should not be sniffed at in this current market.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a buying Euro or Dollar requirements should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk.

If you outline your requirement and the time span within which you plan to, or need to, conduct this, then we can begin a discussion to determine the most suitable option open to you through a currency exchange specialist which suits you with a view to maximizing your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and a brief conversation could save you thousands on your transfer.

Euro and Dollar sellers can also get in contact to have a similar discussion, though my thoughts will sway towards waiting for the news next week to re-coup the losses incurred to you over the last week of trading. Certainly, with the near two cent losses on Friday’s trading for GBP/EUR in particular, the momentum is in your favour.

 

Boost to buying Euro and Dollar rates for second consecutive day (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has now broken through several benchmarks on most major currencies, with buying Euro rates breaching 1.30, and GBP/AUD now well above 2.0 for the first time since February.

The Pound’s recovery has caught the eye of many potential buyers. GBP/EUR was almost 9 cents lower only a month ago, GBP/USD has now established itself north of 1.45, and GBP/AUD has gained near on 20 cents in a single month.

A combination of political and economic factors are the root cause for this sudden turnaround.

Economically speaking the UK has had a fantastic few days with all of the good news of the month seeming to come out within a relatively short period. Wages, unemployment, and most recently this morning retail sales figures have seen positive news eclipse some of the UK’s questionable growth data released at the start of the month.

Furthermore, some confident strides ahead for the remain camp have made some investors a little more confident about the outcome of the looming Referendum. But the mistakes in the polls during the May election haven’t been forgotten, and with the traditional margin of error being plus or minus 3%, there’s still not enough conviction for Sterling to breach much higher for the moment, which explains why the Pound’s rally tailed off this afternoon.

With no economic news of note out tomorrow and no releases on the polls until next week, this very gradual negative loss on buying rates for anyone holding Sterling will likely continue as profit taking after the big movements this week governs changes in buying rates for Euros and Dollars.

Unless the Remain camp gains a hefty lead the Pound is likely to be coming under further pressure as we edge closer to the vote itself. With debates and speeches lined up for the beginning of the month, it’s fair to say that the heavy campaign season hasn’t even begun. Anyone waiting to buy foreign currency, particularly after the opportunities gifted to many buyers over the last 7 trading days, has to have a very strong economic argument if they are expecting many further gains on the marketplace in the short-term.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement between now and Referendum should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to start a dialogue around a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your foreign currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and a brief discussion could save you thousands on your transfer. These current levels available today can also be fixed in place for any planned transfers in the future to completely avoid the risk of waiting for the exchange rates available to you later in the year when you wish to conduct your transfer.

Anyone considering buying Sterling with a foreign currency can also do the same, and I will explain how best to approach the coming weeks to ride the expected movements in your favour to their completion.

Boost to Euro and Dollar buying rates from Sterling side (Joshua Privett)

With the Referendum looming, today may be one of the few occasions each month where we see rates move up from positive news on the Sterling side rather than poor news overseas to make buying Euros and Dollars alike a cheaper prospect.

Average earnings and a second look at the unemployment rate for the first three months of this year will be the main news from the UK early on this morning, which is likely why the Pound is already marginally up against most of its major currency pairings.

As this is a second look, essentially a revision now that more data has arrived, markets are not expecting heavy movements from this. But average earnings will likely be the main focus for the markets.

The data has been collated from April, and due to the emergence of sunny spells the retail and tourist sectors will likely have seen a bump. This is one of the more seasonal increases for the performance of the UK economy and thus a bit more certain than what currency markets are used to dealing with – explaining why markets are already beginning to move ahead of the event.

Euro buyers however will not be the clear winners today. Later on the Dollar will likely be coming under heavy pressure following the release of the most recent minutes from the FED’S meeting this month.

This is the meeting where they already chose not to raise interest rates once more, and markets are becoming increasingly disillusioned as none of the planned four interest rate hikes this year have yet to take place.  

Their most recent excuse has been due to the economic backlash of a potential British exit from the EU which is worth waiting to react to. After this, excuses about the looming election seem likely to follow. If very dovish tones are confirmed during the meeting then it’s likely GBP/USD will be recovering some of 4 cent losses recorded this month.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me today on 01494 787 478. Simply ask the reception team to be put through to Joshua and we can discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and current levels on exchange rates ahead of the Referendum can actually be fixed ahead of time, in order to avoid the expected falls on the currency markets as the vote looms closer.

Euro and Dollar sellers can also reach out to discuss how to buy at more favourable levels as June 23rd approaches. Dollar sellers in particular may be wise to reach out sooner rather than later, as the above describes that your situation is less clear cut. jjp@currencies.co.uk