Tag Archives: GBPUSD exhange rates

Could we have another Referendum?

Well well politicians are a right bunch aren’t they. Just as the UK economy was recovering following the worst financial crisis in living memory we have had the politicians calling this Referendum which has of course knocked confidence and no leaves us with plenty of uncertainty up ahead. It is far to early to be calling Brexit good or bad since we just don’t know what it is at present. For now the UK economy is ticking along nicely, it is growing, people have jobs and they are confident to be spending their hard earned cash as it has been a lovely summer. As I have repeatedly said however we cannot (unfortunately) rely on the weather to support the economy, still with the Olympic glory still fresh in everyone’s minds let us keep positive.

On the subject of Referendums we might yet have another one! Owen Smith the prospective Labour candidate has stated he will be looking to call another Referendum before invoking Article 50, putting the new deal to the test of a public vote. Owen Smith the potential future Labour leader has made this call as part of his campaign to be the new Labour leader. So far this is not wholly likely but the prospect remains.

If you have a transfer involving the pound the uncertainty is set to continue for many months and maybe years, making some plans in such uncertain times seems to me a very sensible option. To discuss further your options and the market please contact me Jonathan Watson on the form below or email me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Pound rises as expected to begin the week – will buying Euro and Dollar rates continue to improve? (Joshua Privett)

As my article on Sunday mentioned, the Pound was expected to perform well this morning and did not disappoint, with gains seen against all major currencies – in particular for buying Euros and Dollars.

Speculators on Friday afternoon have been pulling the floor from under the Pound as they scramble for a stable currency to store their profits in heading into the weekend. Of course, the Pound has bot been high on their list of stable currencies and as a consequence the severe fall on demand for Sterling sees its value plummet.

However, similarly like clockwork we’re seeing GBP/EUR and GBP/USD levels rise as markets re-open on the following Monday as the vast majority scramble to buy Pounds due to their sudden cheapness. In this period of the week rates have rarely been so predictable.

Moving forward however my article did note some potential red flag events – particularly for Euro buyers.

Firstly, news concerning business confidence figures in the Eurozone are to be released tomorrow morning. As the Eurozone has essentially vacuumed up most of the foreign investment the UK has lost in the run up to Brexit and following the Leave result in the vote, the figures are expected to be very positive for the third consecutive month. It’s hardly surprising given that credit is so cheap and their foreign investment is up 300% on the same time last year.

With a fresh bout of Euro strength expected to come tomorrow at 10am, Euro buyers may be wise to seize some of the gains made today first thing in the morning to avoid what could be a difficult week for the Pound – especially given that underwhelming UK growth figures are expected to be released this Friday.

USD buyers however may be presented with some opportunities in the short-term, as tomorrow afternoon US housing market figures are forecasted to show a contraction – a likely result of their recent rise in interest rates. Expect a cheapening of the Dollar tomorrow afternoon. But again with UK growth figures on Friday we may simply be subjected to a small window of opportunity.

With this in mind I recommend that anyone with an upcoming Euro or Dollar purchase should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk or by filling out the form below to discuss your currency requirement and develop a plan of action to truly maximise your return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and I endeavor to produce a proactive service for my customers to make sure they are kept informed and up-to-date with market movements and expectations, rather than lagging behind.

As our regular readers will now full well, rates of exchange on any particular day can be fixed to allow purchasers to pre-book their currency for a later date, allowing any upcoming pitfalls to be avoided.

Will the pound continue to fall?

Sterling has been on the back foot ever since the Referendum and the big question is will this continue? Well in short I think the answer is yes! Quite frankly there is bound to be lots more bad news relating to this scenario, it has not even been two months since the Brexit vote and we are haven’t even begun to scratch the surface of what lies ahead. Markets do not like uncertainty and at present there is plenty of uncertainty as to what will happen to the UK both economically and politically. The economy is on the back foot with slides in growth, employment and business activity. All in all I would not be surprised to see the pound fall further touching fresh lows against all the major currencies. These include the US Dollar, the Euro, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar. If you have a transfer involving the pound and these currencies preparing for further falls in the value of the pound seems the most sensible option.

Last week we heard news Theresa May might not invoke Article 50 until much later than planned, as explained above we are nowhere near knowing any firm details of what Brexit actually is and what it entails. It will lead to many months and years of waiting to understand exactly what is going between the relationship between the UK and its biggest trading partner. As long as this uncertainty continues business and the public will be loathe to make any big financial decisions which will lead to the slowdown in the economy and rising Unemployment.

If you have to buy the pound now is a fantastic time to be considering all of your options and making some plans on the future. The market is likely to offer better deals for buying pounds which anyone with a currency transfer to consider should be taking on board. If you wish to learn more please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. This blog has helped thousands of people to save thousands of pounds through better information and a much better exchange rate than they thought possible. To learn more please email me or fill in the form – you have nothing to lose and lots to gain!

Sterling is now trading around it’s lowest levels of the year, will it recover or get worse? (Joseph Wright)

We’re coming to an important time for Sterling exchange rates with  52 week lows either getting close to being breached, or actually being breached as GBP/EUR was during today’s trading session.

1.1542 was the previous 52 week low but today that figure has fallen to 1.1489, which is important for Sterling sellers to be aware of as at the moment the Pound is not putting up much of a fight when these levels are reached, which could indicate that further falls may be likely.

The Pound is currently trading at a 31 year low vs the US Dollar, but with regards to the Euro it is just at a 3 year low which is why I think the Pound has further to fall against the Euro than the US Dollar, as we’re not in uncharted territory when it comes to GBP/EUR exchange rates.

The falls in the Pound can be attributed to a number of things but what’s most likely driving the current fall, is the BoE’s most recent Quantitative Easing program, whereby £80bn more than expected will enter the economy as the Government buys up UK debt in an attempt to weather the ‘Brexit’ storm. The plans to make this substantial increase in QE were announced at the same time as the BoE’s decision to cut interest rates, and since then the Pound has been falling across the board.

Now that news is being released outlining how the UK economy is performing in it’s ‘post-brexit’ environment I envision further falls for the currency, as investors will be particularity sensitive to negative news out of the UK at the moment, for obvious reasons.

Major events to look out for this week are Tuesdays CPI figures which will offer us an idea of the movement within the cost of living in the UK. Wednesday’s unemployment data may also create volatility within exchange rates so do get in touch if you would like to discuss how these news releases can effect your upcoming currency conversion.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy or sell a foreign currency it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk  in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call in and ask reception for Joseph on 01494 787 478. 

 

 

The pound – it will probably get worse before it gets better…

Oh brilliant in the midst of one of the UK’s worst political crisis ever the Tories are seeking to open another old wound – Grammar Schools. As a product of a Grammar School I would not be in any way against them, but surely a key priority right now is the Brexit plans? 7 and a half weeks since the vote is probably too early to start expecting a solution to an issue that will surely take years to deliver but will someone please provide some direction and leadership in this affair? Personally I would be advocating a so-called hard Brexit, wouldn’t it be a shame if the UK ended up like Norway? With a basically worse version of what we already have! Personally I would favour a reformed Free Movement of People principle but still seek access to the Single Market. Surely the politicians can see this? Some say it would lead France and Italy to seek Frexit or Italexit – (did I just coin a phrase?!) but can’t the EU leaders see they need to change tact to keep the EU together? Politics is an important factor on sterling exchange rates and any big developments here will have a big impact on the pound. Whilst having a new PM is great and I do support Theresa May in as much as I believe she is one of the best candidates to lead the UK at this time, the likelihood of further political uncertainty from the Brexit is very high. It will probably get worse before it gets better!

The big economic news this week is the NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) has an estimate on GDP (Gross Domestic Product) tomorrow. The NIESR estimate is a rolling 3 month estimate that reviews the last 3 calendar months which will include July’s data. Since we won’t get any views on July’s GDP from the official supplier of GDP data – the ONS (Office National Statistics) until October, tomorrow’s news is key to understanding the impact of post Brexit vote Britain on UK GDP, the holy grail of economics. We also have a raft of other data including Trade Balance data plus Industrial and Manufacturing data tomorrow but as this data is for June it won’t provide as much insight on the economy as the NIESR data. With the PMI survey’s showing big falls and all the fresh data showing less hiring, less growth and less confidence you would have to say it will probably get worse before it gets better.

There isn’t much else to celebrate this week economically for the pound and with the Bank of England confirming another rate cut is likely in the next month it seems likely the pound will fall further. We have a statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speech on Tuesday night, then the New Zealand Interest Rate decision Wednesday night and Eurozone GDP on Friday. So there you have it folks a fairly busy week, I think the UK GDP is the highlight and something I will be closely watching. Have you ever wondered if there was a better way of doing something? if it would be possible to get a slightly better exchange rate than you are currently achieving? Or wished you could talk to someone knowledgeable who treats you like a human being and explain the foreign exchange market clearly and concisely? My name is Jonathan Watson and I am the author of this post and have worked as a foreign exchange broker for close to ten years helping literally thousands of clients both private and business to make informed choices at the very best exchange rates. I have been quoted in national newspapers and even appeared on the BBC discussing the EU Referendum earlier this year. If you have a transfer to consider I would be most interested to hear from you and offer further information to help you get a better deal, please email jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to me Jonathan Watson. Please note I can only help with bank to bank transfers from £10,000 to the multi millions and do not deal in holiday cash. You can also fill in the form below.

Will the Pound get any stronger against the Euro and Dollars? (Joshua Privett)

The short answer is that if the Pound does strengthen against the Euro and the various Dollars available for purchase, it will most likely be before August.

Today the Pound took a heavy hit with some frankly morbid news about post-Brexit business conditions in the UK. Economic activity in the UK has deteriorated to a 7 year low in the weeks which have followed a Brexit vote. This was also the largest fall in a single month on record.

Manufacturing and service sectors saw a serious decline in output and orders. The only other occurrences when negative economic outlook was this poor was during the global financial crisis, the dot com bubble burst, and the Asian financial crisis.

Yet luckily for Euro and Dollar buyers the fall was contained to about 1%. Much of the current news for the UK is priced into the current value of the Pound so further negative news isn’t having as dramatic an effect as three weeks ago.

However, these individual data releases can add up, and eventually weight heavily on the value of any currency.

The first two weeks of each month sees the release of economic performance figures from the previous month, and understandably is where you can get some of the heaviest currency movement for the month. The data released today was allowed to be seen early as this was a preliminary survey, rather than the exact figures to be released next month.

This is why I mentioned the beginning of August as a red-flag for Euro and Dollar buyers as the Pound will likely be facing some heavy criticism during this period.

In the meantime, Euro buyers may see some respite with the release of stress test results on European Banks. With the recent news of Italian Banks facing a debt crisis, these results may paint a picture of instability and therefore create opportunity before August.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a currency requirement should contact me jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro or Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place to avoid the downside risk in August affecting your transfer. As such a brief discussion could save you thousands on your currency exchange.

Euro and Dollar sellers, who have some time to play with, should also reach out to discuss how to approach the next few weeks in order to make sure any peaks with emerge within the time frame you have to complete your transfer are maximized.

Buying Euro and Dollar rates finish the week under pressure (Joshua Privett)

After a day of relative stability for buying Euro and Dollar rates before the close of play on Friday, they were sudden falls on the final part of the afternoon which created a concerning picture for some.

The devestating and tragic attacks in Nice understandably hit buying Euro rates the heaviest, with a full Cent drop in the value of the Euro early Friday morning until it was confirmed that the threat had been contained and the terrorist killed.

In total the Pound has had a net gain of around 3% for buying Euro and Dollar rates since the beginning of last week. The stability came from the sudden announcement of a new Prime Minister and Government to deal with the Brexit and the current shocks from the referendum reverberating through the economy.

Yet, with no new news, the Pound still struggled late Friday afternoon. This is down to speculative trading more than anything else.

On Friday afternoons you tend to see the phenomenon of profit-taking on currency markets. Speculators at high street institutions who move hundreds of millions each day are the true market movers, and many wish to consolidate their profits to end the week.

Whilst the Pound has recovered somewhat, it is only a week since the heavy slides of last week were last recorded. The Dollar seems to still be the currency of choice which is why we saw its value saw as the week ended, with serious capital flowing into the USD.

Yet this is not necessarily the end to the Pound’s strengthening trend. Junior Ministers were appointed in the UK over the weekend. The likes of Australia have called immediately for trade deals with the UK, the positive news to counteract the recent negative tirade hasn’t ended.

USD and Euro sellers are still seeing some fantastic opportunities, and may be wise to move sooner rather than later to secure those gains.

I can provide a live, competive quote for your exchange, and can describe the process of bringing funds back to the UK at more competitive rates than those offered by the high street banking world.

Simply email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk, and I can also assist Euro and Dollar buyers to create a strategy for your transfer to maximise your currency return.

Pound spikes upward on hopes of a ‘Soft Brexit’, although Thursday could see another sell-off (Joseph Wright)

Both UK and European equity markets along with the Pound were substantially boosted today, as investors welcomed the removal of uncertainty from the Conservative Party’s leadership contest.

Yesterday it was announced that Theresa May will be the UK’s Prime Minister in-waiting, giving GBP exchange rates a double boost. Political uncertainty almost always weighs negatively on the country in questions currency, so now that we’re aware of who will be leading the country in the period of separation from the EU, the future is looking a lot more certain and currency markets have welcomed the news.

Additionally, Theresa May was a ‘Remainer’ in the lead up to the UK’s EU Referendum. This is significant because markets had received the news of the UK’s shock decision to leave the EU badly, with GBP falling to a 31 year low against the US Dollar. With Theresa May’s public support for the EU in the past many investors are considering her leadership throughout the next couple of years to benefit the UK economy, with the separation of the UK from the EU to remain amicable.

The Pound has been boosted by news of a so called ‘Soft Brexit’ with GBP/EUR and GBP/USD both up over 2% today, but that could suddenly change this Thursday.

During the fallout from the ‘Brexit’ the governor of the Bank of England alluded to the possibility of a further Interest Rate cut down from 0.5% to 0.25%. Should this occur, and it could be a soon as the Monetary Policy Committee’s next meeting on Thursday, then I expect the Pound to fall against most if not all major currency pairs, perhaps wiping out all of yesterday and today’s gains.

Those looking to remove that risk from the market may wish to consider carrying out any planned currency exchanges they have to make, as Thursday could be a volatile day for trading and there’s a chance GBP may fall once again due to the aforementioned reason.

If you would like to discuss your currency exchange with me, and would like to consider taking advantage of award winning exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading regulated currency brokerages as well as help with the timing, feel free to email me directly ideally with a telephone number on jxw@currencies.co.uk with an outline of your requirement. You can also call me directly on 01494 787 478, just ask one of the reception team for Joe.

 

 

 

Sterling gains modestly for a second day, but will next weeks interest rate decision push the Pound down to new lows? (Joseph Wright)

It’s now a full second week since the UK’s ‘Brexit’ vote shocked the world, particularly the financial world, and GBP exchange rates are struggling to rebound although looking at GBP exchange rates at the time of writing, we are seeing very modest gains for the Pound, offering Pound sellers some rest-bite after seeing the value of the currency drop on almost a daily basis for 2 weeks.

Sterling appears to be surrounded by uncertainty as people struggle to define whether the current levels are favourable or not when we consider the bigger picture, and whilst the Pound has dropped down to it’s lowest levels against the US Dollar since 1985, into the late 1.20’s, some analysts are expecting Sterling to continue to decline from it’s current levels, meaning that although the Pound has lost so much value we may be looking at some of the most attractive levels available for Sterling sellers between now and the end of the year (or next year if some analysts predictions are correct).

I think anyone with a GBP/EUR currency exchange to make imminently or in future should be aware of some of the predictions of major analysts, in order to gain a realistic price target moving forward.

JP Morgan’s FX strategist John Normand has outlined a price target of 1.1236 for GBP/EUR by March 2017, which is a further 5 cents below the current level of 1.1725.

Should analysts such as Mr Normand be correct, it may be an idea for anyone looking to convert Sterling into Euros to consider making that conversion sooner as opposed to later as there’s a chance the rate could become less favourable, and for those looking to convert GBP into other currencies, using the GBP/EUR exchange rate as a benchmark wouldn’t be a bad idea as if the Pound is predicted to fall against the Euro, and the fallout from the ‘Brexit’ is affecting the Euro negatively as well, it may be that other major currencies perform even better than the Euro when compared with the Pound.

Those with an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound may wish to get in contact with me (Joe) regarding strategies and how best to time the trade, or trades should you be open to the approach of a staggered entry. Our specialist currency exchange brokerage doesn’t offer financial advice but we do assist our clients with the timing of their trades based on price targets and historical data such as annual and daily highs and lows.

If you would like to discuss your currency exchange with me, and would like to consider taking advantage of award winning exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading regulated currency brokerages, feel free to email me directly ideally with a telephone number onjxw@currencies.co.uk with an outline of your requirement. You can also call me directly on 01494 787 478, just ask one of the reception team for Joe.

 

Buying Euro and Dollar rates showing concerning signs (Joshua Privett)

The Pound reached new lows on Friday for buying Euro rates, and the Dollar is testing some of the more extreme lows reach the Friday before-hand on the result of the Referendum.

Whilst the result of the Referendum marks a change in policy years down the line, the implications in financial markets have been felt acutely already. With the Pound experiencing its record falls, the future of the houseing market being questioned, and stock markets showing an utter lack of stability, the Bank of England have been forced to intervene.

In a speech on Thursday, Mark Carney, the Governor of the BoE, heavily hinted that a new round of quantitative easing and an interest rate cut may be necessary to protect the economy during this tumultuous time. Both of these policies are guaranteed to translate into Pound weakness, causing buying rates on Euros and Dollars.

QE is essentially a sophisticated form of printing money. Money is pumped into financial markets through bond purchases in order to stimulate growth. Simply put, the Pound loses value due to the increased supply in circulation, which is why markets immediately began to price in this devaluation of the Pound.

Interest rate cuts are more self-explanatory. The are a confirmation of poor economic performance to come, and demand for the Pound will be lower if investors can get greater returns elsewhere (a reason why the Australian Dollar has strengthened so heavily this past week of trading).

The interest rate decision and monetary policy statement comes out on July 14th. Markets, however, do tend to move ahead of events, which is why buying Euro and Dollar rates took a heavy hit before trading wound to a halt on Friday afternoon for the weekend.

Whilst there is a delayed fuse on this shift in monetary policy, the lack of certainty around the trajectory of a Brexit until a new leader is chosen will mean that the Pound will struggle to find traction on the currency markets.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should reach out to me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options open to you through a currency exchange specialist to limit your exposure to a volatile arena and make the most of what this market has to offer.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for a future purchase in order to avoid the uncertainty around a Brexit affecting your buying opportunities further down the line – effecively pre-booking your currency.