Tag Archives: GBPUSD exhange rates
Well folks it is that time of year when we reflect on the year so far and look to next year. As the site suggest we make forecasts and the forecast for sterling in 2014 would have to be positive. What are the possible pitfalls however and against which currencies will see the most gains? And what can you do to maximise your deals with this knowledge?
Watch the US – where is market sentiment?
The UK is leading the pack with the highest growth rates amongst European economies. The US is growing faster but their QE programme is without doubt fuelling these increases. At some point the US will have to turn off the QE taps and there will be a very strong market reaction not just on the US dollar but on the euro, pound almost every other currency.
Market Sentiment is a key determinant of the value of sterling. If investors are confident in the global economic outlook the pound should do well as the UK relies heavily on trade from overseas and the services sector which makes up a large part of our economy, relies on international trade.
The pound is likely to do well in 2014 as the global economic outlook improves and the UK recovery remains on track. Of course there are many pitfalls ahead and so the right type of contract is key. A forward contract is the perfect way to lock in your rate for the future without exposing yourself. If you are unsure about how this works or would like any information on the currency markets it really is worth your while speaking to us. Please feel free to speak to me Jonathan on email@example.com
Pitfalls, highs and lows
I expect the EU referendum and Eurozone debt crisis will be key factors that could affect sterling rates in 2014. The Aussie looks likely to be on the back foot as does the rand so I think sterling will push higher against these currencies. Whilst the early part of the year should see GBPUSD at similair levels, the prospect of QE tapering means GBPUSD should drop to the kind of levels we saw earlier this year. Although if you ask me we are a very long away away from the US economy being ready to give up its QE addiction.
I do hope you have found this information useful and look forward to hearing from you if you would like to learn more about our excellent rates, informative forecasts and friendly helpful service.
The current outlook for the pound is now very much positive with the pound posting some important gains against many different currencies. Of note is GBPCAD, GBPNZD, GBPAUD which are all posting very strong rates well above the the recent averages. With such strong moves in a short period of time it is highly likely there will be lots of profit taking which will pull things back down, this could be a very good opportunity for anyone buying sterling to enter the market.
Positive GDP this morning has cemented sterling’s position against most currencies and with central banks globally threatening looser policy, it is only really the Bank of England which appears to be on a track to tightening policy. This of course could be years away but with other banks looking at more accommodative measures the pound is standing out and it is likely will strengthen further.
The ECB are looking at possible negative deposit rates, the RBA is actively seeking a much weaker currency and the Fed is largely committed to continuing the QE programme until the economic conditions improve of which we have seen not much hope so far.
If you are buying or selling the pound an awareness of the latest trends and themes is key to securing the best rates. For more information on what is driving your rate and assistance with the very best rates of exchange please contact the author directly on firstname.lastname@example.org
Just when we all thought the ECB was far too cautious to make a bold policy move, it cuts the base rate across the Eurozone by 0.25% to 0.25%. This has weakened the Euro pushing EURUSD down to 1.33 yesterday and GBPEUR up to 1.2045 at the high.
Pound sterling rates were improved on by this news as funds found their way to the pound keeping GBPUSD in familiar ranges. This afternoon is a very important release for the US with Non-Farm payroll employment data. It bears more significance following last month’s shutdown as this may have impacted on Employment. The likelihood would be a bad number equalling USD weakness. This could cause euro strength in the afternoon as dollars are moved to the Eurozone.
However as the last few releases show ‘likelihood’ does not always mean much. The majority expected the Fed to taper back in September – they didn’t. The majority expected the US budget impasse last month to be solved by the deadline – it wasn’t. Few really expected the ECB to cut rates yesterday – it was. Therefore it is not unreasonable to expect that the payroll report could be better than expected and cause some USD strength. This may lead to GBP strength too as it shows the shutdown last month was not as bad as expected. It was such sentiments (the shutdown not having such a bad effect on the UK) which helped sterling to climb this week on the services PMI.
Making predictions on currency is no easy task. But giving yourself an advantage by exploring all your options is fairly easy. all you need to do is write an email (preferably with a phone number) outlining your position and we can offer our opinion on everything to beware of. We cannot tell you what to do but can highlight the news and tell you what is driving your price. We offer a professional and friendly service on the markets plus much better rates than banks and other sources of currency.
For more information please contact me Jonathan on email@example.com
Sterling has spiked today as improvements in the Services sector far outweighed the expected dip in growth for the sector. This bodes well for the future for Q4 for the UK and hence anyone considering buying sterling may wish to think twice about holding on for too long in anticipation of much better rates.
Time to cut your losses?
The reason the pound dipped last month to 1.16 on GBPEUR and 1.59 on GBPUSD was the possibility the slowdown in the US would impact growth for the UK in Q4. Remember one of the main reasons we have seen sterling spike is the prospect of an interest rate hike if the Unemployment rate falls. A growing economy is more likely than not to lead to falling Unemployment and the much improved growth for Services today shows the UK is on the right track.
This month’s data is the most up to date for Q4 – it is the first snapshot of October and Q4 data for the UK. It proves quite convincingly that the UK is heading in the right direction. For the time being at least sterling should remain well supported and it is my opinion if you are holding a foreign currency and looking to buy sterling, moving sooner may be the wisest course of action.
Further Euro and USD weakness this week?
The Eurozone interest rate decision is on Thursday and this could lead to Euro weakness. The prospect of the Eurozone cutting interest rates is much higher than a week ago due to the rising Unemployment and falling inflation in the Eurozone. Even the mere suggestion of a rate cut could cause Euro weakness so Euro sellers and buyers should both beware of what could potentially be a very interesting afternoon for the GBPEUR rate. I would not rule out the 1.20 although no action could see these much improved buying euro rates fall.
Friday is the day for the USD with Unemployment and Non-Farm Payroll data. The USD is still being driven by the possibility of a QE taper which may not be until 2014 now. I think the data Friday could be poor due to the slowdown which would weigh on the USD and could easily see rates back up towards the 1.61 and 1.62 level.
If you would like more information regarding possible strategies to maximise your exchange rate I would be interested to speak with you. Even a small improvement on your rate on a large volume can make a huge difference to the currency received. Please contact me on firstname.lastname@example.org for more information on getting the best rates and service.
I don’t think anyone really expected the US to default! The problems however are from solved, they are merely postponed. We will probably be writing very similar pieces on the debt ceiling come February which is when the next deadline will be hit!
Moved into next year too is the likelihood of Federal Reserve ‘tapering’ of the Quantitative Easing programme. This is helping fuel the stock market gains and a return to riskier assets too helping the AUD and NZD today as well as the Euro.
It is good news the US have averted a potential catastrophe but it is very worrying in 2013 that such concerns are still present, particularly when you consider the global economy is just about back on its knees.
The last thing anyone wants is another crisis of any description. It seems for now all central bankers can do is take steps to avoid further problems. The fact the US is still utilising QE indicates there is a long way to go before the global economic recovery is fully underway.
For now the USD has weakened but if the fragile good mood turns sour, the USD remains a safe haven and could strengthen very quickly.
To learn more about events that will affect your exchange please contact me Jonathan on email@example.com or call 01494 787 478
Well once again it is politicians causing uncertainty on exchange rates! Amazing really that in 2013 we still have politicians acting quite frankly like babies! In the US the budget impasse and government shutdown has caused a sell off on the dollar whilst in Italy we are due to have a vote of no confidence in the ruling coalition which has weakened the Euro. Berlusconi is still exerting pressure on the government and all the while this continues, urgent reforms to the Italian economy are missed.
I say calm before storm because these issues taken alone whilst significant are not disastrous. What they may pave the way for however could be and as we know nothing should ever be taken for granted on exchange rates. Careful preparation in advance of such uncertainty is often the best course of action, leaving everything until the last minute can prove costly.
Will sterling remain strong? Today and this week is key for shaping the next few week’s movements on GBPEUR, GBPUSD, GBPAUD and many more. Whilst the pound has been trading at excellent levels due to better economic data, it is also being seen as a temporary haven due to the current background of bad news and uncertainty over the US and Euro.
US Shutdown Many have suggested that the Republicans are strengthening their negotiating position by allowing the shutdown so that they are taken more seriously ahead of the all important Debt ceiling deadline on the 17th October. 17th? Ah yes that was the date last month when the Fed unexpectedly kept QE on hold and the USD weakened by 3 cents. For now it would appear markets are fairly relaxed but as this deadline approaches we are bound to see more USD weakness, the flipside of course is that any negotiation will pave the way for a strengthening of the USD and hopefully an agreement for the debt ceiling too.
Important Economic data this week! This week remains a very important one for sterling, will the latest run of data remain favourable? Yesterday’s Manufacturing was not as good as expected and today’s Construction and tomorrow’s Services data will be closely watched for signs the recovery is consistent. Today we have the ECB banking decision in Paris and tomorrow the Bank of England meeting.
All in all sterling should remain well supported but it is likely to be overseas developments which provide the biggest catalyst on rates. If you are considering a currency deal we can offer assistance with the timing of your exchange plus a commercial exchange rate.
There are some important events on the horizon which are likely to move rates so some careful preparation may prove prudent. Please contact me Jonathan on firstname.lastname@example.org for more information.