Tag Archives: GBPUSD exhange rates
What will happen next week on sterling exchange rates?
An excellent run of form for sterling has seen us hit a 15 week high against the euro and 11 week highs against the US dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. Is this going to get much better or has this rally run out of steam?
I think that this rally has run out of steam but that does not mean rates are going to just crash back down. Sterling has been given a boost by the improved GDP stats (0.3% growth for Q1) which removes some of the more immediate concerns regarding sterling. In order for the pound to press on we need to see more positive data and next Thursday could be a trigger with Industrial and Manufacturing data plus the NIESR (National Institute of Economic & Social Research) estimate of GDP for April.
If you are considering moving sterling in the next few weeks next week could be fairly pivotal in shaping the future direction for sterling. It is important not just for sterling but due to the releases affecting other currencies. Here is a quick run through of a couple of things to beware of on rates next week.
EURO – Mario Draghi and the ECB (European Central Bank) are giving a couple of speeches next week including the ECB Monthly Report. There was a story today that the ECB were playing down speculation yesterday rates may be cut further. If any such bold statements are made I expect the Euro to strengthen, but not by much.. The Euro is in the firing line right now. If you are considering any GBPEUR or EURGBP transfers in the future please feel free to contact me for a forecast specific to your requirements. jmw@currencies.co.uk
USD – An improved employment outlook for the US today helped the USD to strengthen against sterling but unless the pound comes under pressure I expect GBPUSD to push higher. A speech next Friday by Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in the US, Ben Bernanke could be crucial.
AUSTRALIAN – The Reserve Bank of Australia meet for their monthly meeting next Monday evening where they decide on economic policy. The statement after their meeting may be more indicative of policy as no change is expected. Next week we also have Australian employment data which could move rates. On the whole I expect rates to remain good for buyers, sellers of AUD to buy GBP may wish to move sooner if they don’t see improvements.
Our service is designed to save people money on their currency exchanges. This is not just through offering better rates than the banks and other currency brokers, but by assisting with the actual timing of your exchange. Even if your transfer is just a one off we can help guide you through the process of moving money internationally at the very best rates.
Even if your transfer is not required for some time we can forward book rates for a small deposit. For more information on the services and to make a comparison or register an alert for certain trading levels, please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
Thank you
Buying euros news, best exchange rates, when to buy, when to sell? (Steve Eakins)
Currency exchange rates have had a bit of a “blip” this week or a SPIKE allowing euro sellers to trade at a 6 week high. It is these SPIKES that often achieve the best price in the market but you have to move quickly to catch them as they don’t hang around for long. A Spike in the market is when some surprising information is released which moves the markets quickly and by a large amount. Unfortunately most recent SPIKE has now ended and the rates have started to return to the level seen over the last 5 weeks.
These spikes do not happen often and when they do it is only the clients with funds available that can normally take advantage. I am of the thought that there will be other spikes through the month of May due to key data being released from the UK with regards to the potential of the UK economy falling into a recession and the Eurozone maybe lowering interest rates. So if you need to move currency internationally register for SPIKE notifications via email at hse@currencies.co.uk
What next for currency rates?
Many euro buyers have been waiting for rates to climb back over 1.20 that we saw last year. Which may or may not happen. The facts still remain that the UK is growing at near zero percent, Unemployment continues to climb, consumer spending is still very low, and there is no real signs of any improvement in the near future. We don’t have an Olympics or a royal wedding to pin our hopes on. This week we have even seen the International Monetary Fund comment that the UK is at risk which is a view also shared by the next Governor of the Bank of England. So in the medium term I expect rates to fall.
The good news however is that rates do not move in a straight line and there are events in the near future that could help euro buyers:
- Next Thursday we have the UK GDP figures being released, this should confirm that the UK avoided a recession. I expect this to improve prices at the time by maybe a cent – saving clients £1,500 on a €200,000 purchase.
- The week following we have European Interest rate decision. There is a possibility that they will cut interest rates which could push exchange rates up for euro buyers, maybe by 1.5 cents – saving clients £2,250 on a €200,000 purchase.
To find out more about the specialist currency service we provide, whether you are a private or corporate client, then we can help. Please get in touch either on 01494 787478 or by emailing me with a brief description of your individual requirement and I will happily contact you and run through your options. You can reach me direct at hse@currencies.co.uk
Register for SPIKE NOTIFICATION or a RATE ALERT simply email me Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk with your details.
Sterling exchange rates set to have a busy week!! Best rates for buying your Euros and Dollars (Ben Amrany)
It turned out to be a fairly flat week for the pound in general with only a cent or so movement against the single currency. Against the USD though we witnessed a welcome boost with the pound climbing now over 4% from the lows of 1.48 recently seen. The spike saw the pound gain to 1.54 on Friday and I feel this represents a good buying opportunity. If you need to buy the USD and wish to capitalise on this current spike please do email me at bma@currencies.co.uk. Let me know what your target level is and I will keep you informed should the rate occur.
Comments from the Federal Reserve have led the markets to believe that they may be starting to slow their monetary easing programme. Couple this with the uncertainty of threats from North Korea the Dollar has taken a bit of a hit this week. Looking into next week against the Greenback their is a host of inflation data out on Tuesday and the FED’s beige book (The Beige Book reports on the current US economic situation) but apart from that significant economic data is a little bleak.
Here in the UK their is also a host of inflation data out on Tuesday and the biggest release will be on Wednesday morning when the Bank of England will release their minutes from the last interest rate decision. The minutes will show how many members of the BoE voted for interest rates to change and how many voted for the dreaded QE. The last few months there has been no QE and it has given the pound a slight boost. On Wednesday though should more members show that they voted for QE it will bring up the question will it happen in May? This is one of the key releases which can cause the pound to be very volatile against a host of currencies. If you have a transfer to make in the next few weeks Wednesday’s release may give you an indication if you should hold out a little longer before making your conversion. Email me with your requirement at bma@currencies.co.uk and I can go over the options that are available to you to help you try and maximise your exchange. Plus the rate will be a lot better than your bank!!!!
If you do not trade next week then the next key release that the markets will be keeping a very close eye on will be the GDP figures on the 25th April. If data continues to be positive and the UK misses a triple dip recession then the pound I feel will remain stable and not nose dive. However I still cant see the rates pushing back towards the 1.20 verses the Euro. If we do hit a triple dip then I think the pound will test the 1.14 level against the Euro and the 1.50 level again against the USD. Things are certainly on a knife edge so if you do not want to take any risks with your funds their are good options that are available. Email me at bma@currencies.co.uk and I can go over all the info for you.
Not only do we offer you our expert opinion on the markets but we can help you achieve rates up to 4% better than some banks. If you have not contacted me in the past can you afford not too with the state of the pound. Even if you are buying sterling and the rates are attractive it is human nature to want to achieve as much as possible so feel free to contact me to help you try and maximise your currency exchange.
Thank you for reading.
Ben Amrany
GBPEUR rates rally but what does the future hold, will we see 1.20 again? (Steve Eakins)
Rates have climbed further this morning as news continue to come out of a small island in the MED, Cyprus. It continues to rule and dictate the world of currency exchange rates this week.
The good news is that as a result of concerns GBPEUR rates are up at a 5 week high but many expect a fall back down once a bailout has been agreed. The facts remain, they need a bailout; option 1 is to take an offer from the Europeans, option 2 is to take an offer from Russia in exchange for the rights to their natural resources of natural gas predicted to be worth some €500,000,000 and leave the euro, option 3 take an offer from both. The details to watch out for are the introduction of any bank levy which could send ripples across the rest. This could cause concerns for the future as if they can put them on account holders in Cyprus they can announced anyone else. Plus if the outcome is that they look to leave the Eurozone watch rates carefully with great interest as this would be unprecedented, the most unlikely outcome in my option.
The latest is that the Europeans have said that Cyprus must agree to their offer by Monday otherwise it will be withdrawn. I think the most likely outcome is a European deal, with a bank levy on accounts with over €100,000 in. This I would expect to result in euro strength as the uncertainty is temporally resolved. It could fall by several cents. Then to follow over the coming weeks will be the threat of a similar bank levy being introduced to other countries if they continue to miss debt targets (Greece, Portugal, Ireland and even Spain and Italy.)
As a result my view is that if you have any funds to buy with the Pound to either move quickly taking advantage of this 5 week high, or seriously consider limiting your risk with limit orders and stop loss orders. These are technical contract orders available from brokers like ourselves to limit your exposure to the markets by putting in automatic buy orders in the markets.
UK Pound summary and forecast
Some clients are asking whether we will see GBPEUR rates climb up again to 1.20, I personally see this as very unlikely in the near or even medium term as the UK situation continues to fall.
This week’s budget in summary: When Cameron and Osbourne took office in May 2010, they predicted the economy would grow more that 5% over the next 2 years, a budget deficit equal to 11% of GDP would fall to 2% by 2015 and the UK would keep its AAA credit rating. Instead, output rose 1.1%, the deficit is at 8% of GDP and most expect Fitch rating agency and Standard and Poor will follow Moody’s in downgrading the credit rating score after this week’s budget. They really asked for yet another 4 years to try and achieve their original goals. So the outlook does not look like it will improve significantly in the UK for some years.
Plus put into the mix that we also saw unemployment climb again this week that did not make much of the media.
- If you are in the position looking at buying funds and want to make sure you are getting the most of the market, or want to make sure you are getting the best price, contact us today to find out. Call us on the normal number or myself at hse@currencies.co.uk
- Also available is the system of SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS; if you want to be keep up to date with the markets and how this could affect you simply email your details and register for updates via email at hse@curerncies.co.uk with the subject – SPIKE NOTIFICATION
Have a good weekend and spare a thought for account holders in Cyprus that have not had access to their funds for over a week now….
Interest rate decision for the UK fast approaching. This could be one of the most volatile days for the pound against the Euro and USD. (Ben Amrany)
Yesterday was a fairly positive day for the pound as it stabilised slightly over the last couple of days after the volatile times that we have witnessed over the last few weeks. In fact yesterday the pound was one of the best performing currencies out of all the majors and we saw some good gains against the USD and Euro. Although we had a good day the levels are still extremely weak for clients looking at selling the poound. If you are looking at purchasing the pound then you are currently trading at a two and a half year high for US Dollar sellers and a 15 month high for Euro sellers. While if you are one of the southern hemisphere currencies you are bordering at all time highs for selling Australian & New Zealand Dollars against the pound.
This morning the Governor of the Bank of England is speaking and I am sure you are all aware that they have made comments over the last few weeks that a weak pound is good for the UK economy so it will be interesting to see if his comments continue to weaken the once great British Pound.
Tomorrow will be the big day for the UK though. With the interest rate decision for March fast approaching we beleive that the bank of England may look at further monetary stimulus in the form of QE. If this were to occur then the losses could well continue tomorrow against a host of majors. Recently one memeber of the BoE even stated that we could have negative interest rates. If ever there are signs that the bank would like to weaken the pound those comments should frighten you. If you need to sell the pound you may be wise to look at your position before this key data release tomorrow morning. If you are buying then why not place a limit order in the market so you can try and achieve a better rate than what is currently available.
In the Euro zone there will also be an interest rate decision. If the ECB decide to cut rates (although unlikely) then this could counter act the potential QE in the UK. If the UK do QE and the Eurozone do not cut rates then I would exect the pound to weaken. If there is no QE in the UK and the eurozone cut rates then I would expect to see some sterling strength. So overall tomorrow could be very volatile. I do however feel the Euro will continue to gain as confidence is slowly moving back into the single currency.
If you have a requirement to buy or sell any major currency then please do conatct me with your currency requirement at bma@currencies.co.uk or call the trading floor and ask for Ben Amrany. I will strive to make sure that you receive a better rate than your bank or current provider plus we will make sure that you receive a very personal service to try and help you maximise your conversion by giving you the information to decide when may be a good time to do your currency conversion.
Thank you for reading.
Ben Amrany
Three Key things to be aware of Sterling right now!
Is there any other way the UK can grow the economy except by weakening the pound further? I just don’t see it! And nor do most analysts. Below are three reasons why the pound will continue to struggle in the short term. If you are considering a transfer soon please also read my post post below made earlier today or by clicking here.
- Triple Dip Recession – Unprecedented in recent years but potentially hugely damaging for the UK. It would signal that the coalitions plans are not working and could impact on the loss of the UK’s Triple A Rating
- Triple A Rating – The UK enjoys lower rates on the debt it takes on because it is seen as a good investment and able to repay. As the economic conditions in the UK deteriorate and stagnate that risk rating also worsens. The effect can be cyclical as lower rating makes debt more expensive which in turn makes the economic data worse which means the government has to get in more debt.
- Leaving the EU – Whether you agree or disagree that membership of the EU is a good thing, the prospect of the UK leaving is not good for the immediate prospects of sterling. It creates uncertainty for the future. The UK is the gateway to the Eurozone and removing that crucial link could upset overseas investors who had chosen to invest here.
Politicians and Bank of England members have openly admitted a strong pound is not good and a weak pound is one of the only ways out of this crisis. QE has not worked and it is unlikely the Government will embark on the kind of infrastructure plans needed to trigger a recovery. It would be far too damaging for the coalition and an open admission that their plan had failed. Can you imagine how the worlds press would view Osborn and Cameron? What else can they hope for except a weak pound?
Conseqently I am really struggling to see how the pound will find favour in the short term. Therefore if you are holding sterling and looking to buy another currency you should be preparing for further losses. For a full discussion of your situation and to find out how to get the best rates please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.
Why the pound can only get weaker! Current pound sterling exchange rates should not be taken for granted…
The pound has dropped quite sharply this year and with very good reason. The number one question I am hearing is will it drop further and as painful as this may be to hear, the answer I have to say is yes. This is good news for those selling a foreign currency to buy sterling, read on to find out how we can help save you money and ensure you trade at the right time.
The UK economy is uncompetitive. Five years of a major depreciation in the value of the pound has done little to ignite the recovery many expected would be under way. It is majorly in the Government’s and Bank of England’s interest to have a weak pound as this will help the recovery and gives credibility to their economic plans. A major devaluing of the pound is the only way the UK can get out of the mess it is in.
Martin Weale from the Bank of England stated only recently that it was in the UK’s interest to have a weaker pound and I expect that these sentiments will prevail for most of the next few months. It is therefore unrealistic to expect that the pound will suddenly make major improvements against the major currency pairs.
Are you considering a currency exchange involving the pound and wondering where all this is headed? For an unbeatable rate of exchange and market updates to ensure you don’t miss out please feel free to contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478. To ensure I can best help you it would be useful to provide an outline of your situation and a contact telephone number.
Tomorrow we have the Bank of England minutes which are likely to cause the pound to lose further ground against the majors. Rates could drop up to a cent or two. There is a very slim chance some members may have voted for a rate hike but I doubt it. The minutes last month were more telling and this could be the case again. I will be watching this release very closely to see what is happening as it may well provide news on where rates will go in the future. If you are too busy to read through twenty pages of Bank of England data please register an interest with me!
To best assess the future we can always look to the past. The pound was strong last year because of Eurozone worries. Investors put money into the pound as a safe haven. This year as those fears have subsided and the UK economy teeters on the brink of an unprecedented triple dip investors have sold off their GBP positions and this has contributed to a weak pound. My predictions are therefore that sterling will continue to suffer in the future and that anyone who thinks this is the lowest it will go should not take current levels for granted.
The best way to ensure you do not suffer at the hands of market movements is to register an interest. As specialist currency brokers we set this site up for our clients and new clients alike. Our personal and proactive service means we can watch the rates for you and provide all the information to make an informed decision. Please feel free to contact myself Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask for me.
I look forward to hearing from you and assisting you with your currency matters.
