Tag Archives: GBPUSD exhange rates

Great Expectations… GBP Weakness…

The pound has dipped this morning despite a raft of good economic data showing improvements in government borrowing and falling budget deficit. There had been some high expectations of seeing the pound move higher due to a more hawkish outlook by the Bank of England but this failed to materialise. As one of my clients said to me ‘you can’t even trust the Bank of England’ nowadays…

This was in reference to their commitment to consider raising interest rates if the Unemployment rate dipped below 7%. This particular caveat was of course met recently causing the pound to spike but for now the BoE will not be raising interest rates, it would simply cause more problems.

If you are expecting the pound to just keep rising you could therefore be very disappointed as we need to see some really good data to warrant such a spike. I find the best way to maximise your return on your currency exchange is to set realistic targets and limits. If you would like some assistance in the execution and planning of your transfers please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk, even if your transfer is just a once off, we can help get you the most for your money.

Thank you,




Two Important considerations forecasting Pound Sterling Exchange Rates

Good afternoon Readers! The pound is at some truly excellent levels currently, levels that should not be easily dismissed in the hope of much better rates. If you need to buy or sell currency there are a few pointers to note that will make your life easier and your wallet heavier!

Accept that you will not get the ‘top’ or the ‘bottom’ of the market. All too often I am managing one of my client’s currency exposure and they base all their calculations on a recent high. So for example selling Euros to buy pounds at 1.19 or buying Euros with pounds at 1.22. If you do this you are likely to be disappointed. Speak to me about what is a more realistic rate to achieve by calling 01494 787 478 or why not email me jmw@currencies.co.uk

Do your research! There can be major difference between the exchange rates offered by banks and currency brokers like us. But there can also be major differences between the rates offered by different brokers. Here at poundsterlingforecast.com we seek to undercut other brokers and on large volumes the differences can be significant.

GBPEUR is currently 1,2131, GBPUSD is 1.6751, GBPAUD is 1.7921 and GBPCAD is 1.8261

Getting the best exchange rate on a large volume currency transfer (£10,000 +) makes a big difference to the amount you receive. If you are transferring a sum of this size and want to learn the current forecast please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk for the very best rates and latest news on what will move your rate!



Will the pound weaken again?

Sterling has found favour today due to the impressive Retail Sales figures showing the UK is on the up. Sterling seems to have shaken off the more recent wobbles and is now looking like a safe bet to make further gains in the future. If you need to make a transaction involving the pound, I would strongly recommend speaking to us to find out the very best rates of exchange and allow us to explain the current forecast. Please feel free to drop me a line on jmw@currencies.co.uk

The outlook on the pound is positive and the recent euro gains against the pound look set to be on the back burner for the time being. If you need to sell euros to buy the pound then I would focus on making the transaction sooner rather than later as the longer term prediction would appear to favour GBP. The main driver in this situation will be the likelihood of any interest rate hike, tomorrow’s UK GDP data whilst old news, could act as a very interesting trigger for further GBP strength.

We are currency specialists, experts in forecasting and managing client risk to the foreign exchange market. If you need to make a transaction and want the very best rates and service please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I am very confident of being able to undercut any other firms and save you money.

Sterling hits 1.20 against the Euro this morning. (Ben Amrany)

Following on from yesterdays data releases the pound has strengthened this morning after what was a very flat day for the pound against a host of majors yesterday. The key releases showed that unemployment did not fall a great deal, no members of the bank voted for interest rates to rise which led to not a great deal of movement in the end.

During the budget the chancellor announced upgrades to the official forecasts for the UK economy to 2.7%  but also stated that the UK still has to tighten their belts to reduce our deficit. Apparently the revision for our growth to 2.7% is the biggest upward revision for growth between budgets for 30 years.  As the budget contained no real surprises for the UK economy sterling exchange rates were flat on the day.

Today though we have seen the pound rise against the Euro spiking back up at 1.2006. The rise represents an attractive level once again considering how low the rate was  just a few days ago. Against the USD sterling has declined back below 1.65. I have stated for a while if you need to purchase Dollars you should look at your position before we see the Dollar strengthen and this has now occurs. The gain for the Dollar was due to comments from the FED at their interest rate decision. They kept rates on hold but gave an insight into their thoughts on future rate decisions. They also continued with their Taper of $10 billion a month which has strengthened the dollar against a host of majors.

Looking forward I feel that the pound should rise above 1.20 soon against the Euro and continue to weaken against the Dollar potentially testing the 1.63′s in the near future.

If you require an exchange then I can help you beat the rates of exchanges that your banks offer you by sometimes up to 4%. As well as offering a very personal service to give you the information needed to help you judge when you should do your exchange there are not many services out there like ours. If you wish to discuss your requirement in more detail feel free to call the number on this page and ask for myself  Ben Amrany. Alternatively you may email me at bma@currencies.co.uk

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk







Pound Sterling Forecast

Sterling remains supported but the more recent data for February is as expected looking worse than expected. Small declines in Construction and Services output are perhaps potentially indicative more of the recent bad weather than any likely declines in the pace of growth in the UK economy although few would doubt that the strong growth spurts witnessed earlier this year seem to have receded for the time being.

Today’s Interest rate decision does not appear to hold too much in store, I am expecting more in the ECB (European Central Bank) statement. Essentially some slightly better news for the Eurozone that Inflation is rising last week, will have helped to keep the lid on further action for the ECB. The pound to euro exchange rate may fall slightly following the statement.

All in all the pound is performing very well and there is an expectation the pound will remain supported. The chance of the pound making significant further gains in the short term do however look limited so if you are keen to look at buying a foreign currency with the pound I suggest moving sooner.

If you are planning a transaction and wish to achieve a better exchange rate and find out about a better service please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with me Jonathan.

Sterling weakness up ahead? Why now is a good time to buy the pound

Jonathan Watson

Jonathan Watson

Currently sterling is well supported largely due to the strong likelihood of the UK raising interest rates next year. Investors are taking up positions on sterling in anticipation of better returns in the future. 80% of currency transactions are speculative and whilst this is not a topic we deal in for clients , it is a topic that is extremely relevant in determining future market movements for our clients.

Longer term sterling appears bound to increase significantly as the prospect of ultra low interest rates becomes the past. The pound has been flirting with 5 year highs on a trade weighted basis which when you consider interest rates have been at rock bottom for 5 years makes sense.

Since we won’t actually see any actual hike for some time there is certainly a good chance of more GBP weakness but it will be in pockets and not reflective of a greater downward trend. If you are going to need to purchase the pound in the future moving sooner is I believe the best course of action. Please contact me directly for assistance in sourcing the best rates and the optimum peaks to trade on. I assure you of being able to beat the banks and currency brokerages.

Many of my clients selling say Euros and Dollars after a property sale are quibbling over the fact they are trading at multi year lows. I wholly sympathise with these clients because when you do the calculation on the losses selling six figure sums in the last year they are substantial. But if you look further back say at the 10 year and 5 year figures you will see current rates are not so bad.

Take Mr Smith in France for example, who may have purchased there when rates were say 1.50. Imagine buying a 200,000 Euro property at 1.50. This would have cost you 133333.33 GBP. Fast forward ten years and unfortunately he has had to sell to come back to the UK and had to take a hit on the price. He had to sell for 175,000 Euros and was not happy at having lost 25,000 on the price. However he managed to get 1.20 on the rate which means his 175,000 Euros are actually worth 145833.33 GBP. Suddenly it is not such a bad deal and when he considers all the fun times he had there, the whole experience has actually not been too bad!

This just shows the importance of exchange rates when considering overseas transactions. Sterling is at a very good level now which may yet improve. Understanding what is driving exchange rates is critical to getting the best deal. For more information on the forecast for your particular situation please don’t hesitate to contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Mark Carney helps sterling to rise, will it last?

Mark Carney and the Bank of England have raised UK growth forecasts helping sterling to gain against a number of currencies.  At the same time they have underlined interest rates will be on hold for a long period of time which limits just how much higher we can expect sterling to rise in the coming weeks and months.

Jonathan Watson

Jonathan Watson

If you have a sterling transfer to consider in the coming weeks and months making some plans now at these levels may be a sensible move. 

In other news the new Federal Reserve Chairmen Janet Yellen underlined Quantitative Easing in the US is likely to continue until there are significant improvements in the jobs market. And overnight Chinese economic data was much stronger than expected presenting what I believe is a very good opportunity for anyone selling Australian dollars or South African Rand to buy GBP.

I am available to assist in the planning and execution of any international money transfers you need to make (including bringing funds back to the UK or Europe). Unfortunately no one can tell you exactly what will happen on exchange rates but having won awards for our service and rates, we are extremely well placed to offer expertise in managing your currency exposure.

For a breakdown of strategies and options on your particular exchange please call me Jonathan in UK office hours on 01494 787 478 or if you prefer email a quick outline of your position to jmw@currencies.co.uk

What will move the pound sterling exchange rates this week?

Jonathan Watson

Jonathan Watson

 Tomorrow is a key release for the UK with UK GDP released at 09.30 am. This will detail how the UK economy grew in the final quarter of 2013 and underline just how solid this recovery is. On balance I would be expecting a strong number above the forecast and sterling strength for this release.

I remain of the opinion if you are selling a currency to buy GBP then moving sooner is the best move since it is likely the pound will continue to strengthen as the UK economy improves.

Wednesday is a very important release too with the US Fed decsion on whether or not they will be embarking on more QE ‘tapering’. There is a strong likelihood of a further $10bn in cuts as they have forecast but this may have been priced in to an extent already. If they taper by more or do nothing then there could be a big market reaction not just on the USD but also sterling, Euro and riskier currencies of the EM which have been driven by the Fed’s actions for so long now.

EM stands for Emerging Market’s and represents the BRICS and other emerging markets from recent years. Many of these assets have been buoyed as a result of Chinese economic dominance and cheap money from the US Federal Reserve ‘QE’ (Quantitiative Easing) programme. On this particular issue you can read more from my recent post here.

If you are planning an exchange now or in the future an awareness of all of your options in advance will help you to get better exchange rates. For more information please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask t speak with Jonathan.


Are you ready for the emerging market sell off!

Jonathan Watson

Jonathan Watson

There has been much background speculation for years about a mass market sell off on ‘riskier’ assets and finally it looks like the dam has burst it banks. Make sure you don’t get caught in the flood! 

Often on exchange rates clear trends and patterns are difficult. Every now and again something creeps up however which is plain to see. And the current trends on the pound versus a whole host of what we term ‘riskier’ currencies is playing out as expected and may yet deteriorate further. Here is a list of the key currencies which I think will be affected:

 - South African Rand, Turkish Lira, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar

Why are they in trouble?

Global events have construed to put these currencies in a very tricky position. They have all been historically very strong against sterling due to improvements in their economies as a result of either strong demand for their natural resources (Australia, South Africa, Canada) or large scale overseas investment into the country (Turkey). Much of this money has been as a result of the QE (Quantitative Easing) programmes advocated by the United States and to a lesser extent the UK. All this extra money has had to go somewhere and so it has into stocks and other areas which offer a generous return.

The money is now being withdrawn and it is weakening these currencies. So long as the UK economy keeps improving (which is a very strong likelihood) and China slows down (which it is) this situation is likely to persist and deteriorate.

If you have any overseas interests to eventually return to pound sterling now is a very good time to weigh up your options. And it is not just these currencies which are in the firing line. Sterling is gaining against all currencies up at multi year highs against both the US dollar and the Euro. As the pound increases in value and we return to more normal exchange rates (from say 5 – 10 years ago) it will become much more expensive to buy pounds in the future.

We offer an option to ‘fix’ an exchange rate up to a year in advance which means if you know you will need to bring back funds in the future you can book the rate in now so you know exactly what you will get. This is very useful for anyone who is selling a property overseas as it means they know exactly what the sterling value of their property will be once the funds become available.

If you are interested to learn more I would be very happy to have a chat with you about your personal situation. Please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with Jonathan.

Important sterling news is early today

Jonathan Watson

Jonathan Watson

This morning we have Retail Sales for the UK released at 09.30 am. Retail accounts for a large portion of our GDP and the figures will be closely watched and may well move sterling. Therefore if you have a transaction to consider an awareness of the possible outcome and how to prepare yourself is wise!

The pound is performing very strongly against a range of currencies and this morning’s data is expected to show an improvement of 0.1% in the sector. I have read a few forecasts that predict a lower number which would weaken sterling. I however would expect a higher number as despite some supermarkets reporting lower numbers many other retailers like Next and John Lewis reported very high sales. We also had retailers discounting in the weeks leading up to Christmas and many sales started on Christmas Day.

Another interesting point to consider however is the growth of online sales and the impact of this on the High street. The widely reported increases are of course welcome but are the sales going overseas or is it benefiting the British economy? I have actually emailed the ONS (Office National Statistics) and will let you know!

We can book a price in minutes following your initial contact. We are able to undercut other sources of currency and give you insight into the issues and events affecting your exchange. For more information please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with Jonathan.

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