Tag Archives: GBPUSD exhange rates

Will the Pound get any stronger against the Euro and Dollars? (Joshua Privett)

The short answer is that if the Pound does strengthen against the Euro and the various Dollars available for purchase, it will most likely be before August.

Today the Pound took a heavy hit with some frankly morbid news about post-Brexit business conditions in the UK. Economic activity in the UK has deteriorated to a 7 year low in the weeks which have followed a Brexit vote. This was also the largest fall in a single month on record.

Manufacturing and service sectors saw a serious decline in output and orders. The only other occurrences when negative economic outlook was this poor was during the global financial crisis, the dot com bubble burst, and the Asian financial crisis.

Yet luckily for Euro and Dollar buyers the fall was contained to about 1%. Much of the current news for the UK is priced into the current value of the Pound so further negative news isn’t having as dramatic an effect as three weeks ago.

However, these individual data releases can add up, and eventually weight heavily on the value of any currency.

The first two weeks of each month sees the release of economic performance figures from the previous month, and understandably is where you can get some of the heaviest currency movement for the month. The data released today was allowed to be seen early as this was a preliminary survey, rather than the exact figures to be released next month.

This is why I mentioned the beginning of August as a red-flag for Euro and Dollar buyers as the Pound will likely be facing some heavy criticism during this period.

In the meantime, Euro buyers may see some respite with the release of stress test results on European Banks. With the recent news of Italian Banks facing a debt crisis, these results may paint a picture of instability and therefore create opportunity before August.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a currency requirement should contact me jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro or Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place to avoid the downside risk in August affecting your transfer. As such a brief discussion could save you thousands on your currency exchange.

Euro and Dollar sellers, who have some time to play with, should also reach out to discuss how to approach the next few weeks in order to make sure any peaks with emerge within the time frame you have to complete your transfer are maximized.

Buying Euro and Dollar rates finish the week under pressure (Joshua Privett)

After a day of relative stability for buying Euro and Dollar rates before the close of play on Friday, they were sudden falls on the final part of the afternoon which created a concerning picture for some.

The devestating and tragic attacks in Nice understandably hit buying Euro rates the heaviest, with a full Cent drop in the value of the Euro early Friday morning until it was confirmed that the threat had been contained and the terrorist killed.

In total the Pound has had a net gain of around 3% for buying Euro and Dollar rates since the beginning of last week. The stability came from the sudden announcement of a new Prime Minister and Government to deal with the Brexit and the current shocks from the referendum reverberating through the economy.

Yet, with no new news, the Pound still struggled late Friday afternoon. This is down to speculative trading more than anything else.

On Friday afternoons you tend to see the phenomenon of profit-taking on currency markets. Speculators at high street institutions who move hundreds of millions each day are the true market movers, and many wish to consolidate their profits to end the week.

Whilst the Pound has recovered somewhat, it is only a week since the heavy slides of last week were last recorded. The Dollar seems to still be the currency of choice which is why we saw its value saw as the week ended, with serious capital flowing into the USD.

Yet this is not necessarily the end to the Pound’s strengthening trend. Junior Ministers were appointed in the UK over the weekend. The likes of Australia have called immediately for trade deals with the UK, the positive news to counteract the recent negative tirade hasn’t ended.

USD and Euro sellers are still seeing some fantastic opportunities, and may be wise to move sooner rather than later to secure those gains.

I can provide a live, competive quote for your exchange, and can describe the process of bringing funds back to the UK at more competitive rates than those offered by the high street banking world.

Simply email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk, and I can also assist Euro and Dollar buyers to create a strategy for your transfer to maximise your currency return.

Pound spikes upward on hopes of a ‘Soft Brexit’, although Thursday could see another sell-off (Joseph Wright)

Both UK and European equity markets along with the Pound were substantially boosted today, as investors welcomed the removal of uncertainty from the Conservative Party’s leadership contest.

Yesterday it was announced that Theresa May will be the UK’s Prime Minister in-waiting, giving GBP exchange rates a double boost. Political uncertainty almost always weighs negatively on the country in questions currency, so now that we’re aware of who will be leading the country in the period of separation from the EU, the future is looking a lot more certain and currency markets have welcomed the news.

Additionally, Theresa May was a ‘Remainer’ in the lead up to the UK’s EU Referendum. This is significant because markets had received the news of the UK’s shock decision to leave the EU badly, with GBP falling to a 31 year low against the US Dollar. With Theresa May’s public support for the EU in the past many investors are considering her leadership throughout the next couple of years to benefit the UK economy, with the separation of the UK from the EU to remain amicable.

The Pound has been boosted by news of a so called ‘Soft Brexit’ with GBP/EUR and GBP/USD both up over 2% today, but that could suddenly change this Thursday.

During the fallout from the ‘Brexit’ the governor of the Bank of England alluded to the possibility of a further Interest Rate cut down from 0.5% to 0.25%. Should this occur, and it could be a soon as the Monetary Policy Committee’s next meeting on Thursday, then I expect the Pound to fall against most if not all major currency pairs, perhaps wiping out all of yesterday and today’s gains.

Those looking to remove that risk from the market may wish to consider carrying out any planned currency exchanges they have to make, as Thursday could be a volatile day for trading and there’s a chance GBP may fall once again due to the aforementioned reason.

If you would like to discuss your currency exchange with me, and would like to consider taking advantage of award winning exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading regulated currency brokerages as well as help with the timing, feel free to email me directly ideally with a telephone number on jxw@currencies.co.uk with an outline of your requirement. You can also call me directly on 01494 787 478, just ask one of the reception team for Joe.

 

 

 

Sterling gains modestly for a second day, but will next weeks interest rate decision push the Pound down to new lows? (Joseph Wright)

It’s now a full second week since the UK’s ‘Brexit’ vote shocked the world, particularly the financial world, and GBP exchange rates are struggling to rebound although looking at GBP exchange rates at the time of writing, we are seeing very modest gains for the Pound, offering Pound sellers some rest-bite after seeing the value of the currency drop on almost a daily basis for 2 weeks.

Sterling appears to be surrounded by uncertainty as people struggle to define whether the current levels are favourable or not when we consider the bigger picture, and whilst the Pound has dropped down to it’s lowest levels against the US Dollar since 1985, into the late 1.20’s, some analysts are expecting Sterling to continue to decline from it’s current levels, meaning that although the Pound has lost so much value we may be looking at some of the most attractive levels available for Sterling sellers between now and the end of the year (or next year if some analysts predictions are correct).

I think anyone with a GBP/EUR currency exchange to make imminently or in future should be aware of some of the predictions of major analysts, in order to gain a realistic price target moving forward.

JP Morgan’s FX strategist John Normand has outlined a price target of 1.1236 for GBP/EUR by March 2017, which is a further 5 cents below the current level of 1.1725.

Should analysts such as Mr Normand be correct, it may be an idea for anyone looking to convert Sterling into Euros to consider making that conversion sooner as opposed to later as there’s a chance the rate could become less favourable, and for those looking to convert GBP into other currencies, using the GBP/EUR exchange rate as a benchmark wouldn’t be a bad idea as if the Pound is predicted to fall against the Euro, and the fallout from the ‘Brexit’ is affecting the Euro negatively as well, it may be that other major currencies perform even better than the Euro when compared with the Pound.

Those with an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound may wish to get in contact with me (Joe) regarding strategies and how best to time the trade, or trades should you be open to the approach of a staggered entry. Our specialist currency exchange brokerage doesn’t offer financial advice but we do assist our clients with the timing of their trades based on price targets and historical data such as annual and daily highs and lows.

If you would like to discuss your currency exchange with me, and would like to consider taking advantage of award winning exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading regulated currency brokerages, feel free to email me directly ideally with a telephone number onjxw@currencies.co.uk with an outline of your requirement. You can also call me directly on 01494 787 478, just ask one of the reception team for Joe.

 

Buying Euro and Dollar rates showing concerning signs (Joshua Privett)

The Pound reached new lows on Friday for buying Euro rates, and the Dollar is testing some of the more extreme lows reach the Friday before-hand on the result of the Referendum.

Whilst the result of the Referendum marks a change in policy years down the line, the implications in financial markets have been felt acutely already. With the Pound experiencing its record falls, the future of the houseing market being questioned, and stock markets showing an utter lack of stability, the Bank of England have been forced to intervene.

In a speech on Thursday, Mark Carney, the Governor of the BoE, heavily hinted that a new round of quantitative easing and an interest rate cut may be necessary to protect the economy during this tumultuous time. Both of these policies are guaranteed to translate into Pound weakness, causing buying rates on Euros and Dollars.

QE is essentially a sophisticated form of printing money. Money is pumped into financial markets through bond purchases in order to stimulate growth. Simply put, the Pound loses value due to the increased supply in circulation, which is why markets immediately began to price in this devaluation of the Pound.

Interest rate cuts are more self-explanatory. The are a confirmation of poor economic performance to come, and demand for the Pound will be lower if investors can get greater returns elsewhere (a reason why the Australian Dollar has strengthened so heavily this past week of trading).

The interest rate decision and monetary policy statement comes out on July 14th. Markets, however, do tend to move ahead of events, which is why buying Euro and Dollar rates took a heavy hit before trading wound to a halt on Friday afternoon for the weekend.

Whilst there is a delayed fuse on this shift in monetary policy, the lack of certainty around the trajectory of a Brexit until a new leader is chosen will mean that the Pound will struggle to find traction on the currency markets.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should reach out to me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options open to you through a currency exchange specialist to limit your exposure to a volatile arena and make the most of what this market has to offer.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for a future purchase in order to avoid the uncertainty around a Brexit affecting your buying opportunities further down the line – effecively pre-booking your currency.

 

Sterling exchange rates are likely to continue to fall from current levels (Joseph Wright)

It’s a full week after the initial drop from the shock of the ‘Brexit’ vote and I think it’s fair to say that Sterling exchange rates aren’t showing many signs of a fightback as of yet.

The Pound had begun to climb slightly off of its initial lows earlier in the week, although I think that was inevitable as bargain hunters in the FX markets would have propped up the price as they bought it at it’s very lowest looking to make a quick buck, but that upwards momentum was soon reversed as the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney announced that a further Interest Rate cut is a possibility, and this immediately drove the Pound downwards, to new 52 week lows in some cases.

The fallout from the ‘Brexit’ outcome of last weeks EU Referendum in the UK is currently one of the main drivers of currency and equity movements worldwide, let alone in the UK. With the UK under the microscope I think we can expect to see any news surrounding the ‘Brexit’ having the potential to affect Sterling exchange rates whether GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD or any other currency pair involving GBP. Most developments as of yet have had a negative impact on the Pounds value and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the downward trend continue as we approach the Monetary Policy Committee’s next meeting on August the 4th when the next cut in Interest Rates could occur.  

Those with an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound may wish to get in contact regarding strategies and how best to time the trade, or trades should you be open to the approach of a staggered entry. Our specialist currency exchange brokerage doesn’t offer financial advice but we do assist our clients with the timing of their trades based on price targets and historical data such as annual and daily highs and lows.

If you would like to discuss your currency exchange with me, and would like to consider taking advantage of award winning exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading regulated currency brokerages, feel free to email me directly ideally with a telephone number on jxw@currencies.co.uk with an outline of your requirement. You can also call me directly on 01494 787 478, just ask one of the reception team for Joe.

How far can the pound fall?

The pound has actually made some very small gains today but the outlook remains grim in my opinion. Despite the markets bouncing off the bottom today I do not think there is going to be a huge amount to be cheerful about and the rally of this morning quickly halted. The UK has no Prime Minister, the EU say there will be no special deal for the UK and business confidence and investment is down. There is a harsh choice for the next PM will it be abandoning free movement of people or retaining access to the single markets. According to the EU we cannot have both! If you are considering a currency exchange (£10,000 over only bank to bank exchanges please) please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to keep up with the latest news on how the pound is performing.

How much lower will GBPUSD drop?

The problem on this pair is the US Election is not far away which is bound to lead to uncertainty on the exchange rate. The prospect of a Trump Presidency has in my mind not been properly factored into the dollar. The Brexit vote also makes a US Interest rate hike less likely which I feel is not being reflected on the pair. I expect this rate to trade between 1.30 – 1.40 until August before moving back to 1.40-1.50 August to September. From there the picture is less clear but a move back above 1.50 could not be ruled out. If you have any USD transfers to consider the USD is almost at a 30 year high against the pound. To understand the latest movements please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPEUR hit 1.25?

For Euro buyers this is the question I am being asked most. Well I think Greek concerns and worries may resurface in the next few months and a top of 1.25 is possible, the negative impact of Brexit is also hurting the Euro. But I think sterling will be the main loser and would call lows in the 1.10-1.15 range up to September. From there much will depend on how Brexit negotiations but I think the pound will remain weak until we have certainty. If you have any Euro transfers on amounts above £10,000 (eg property sale of business transfer) please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information on securing the best GBPEUR and EURGBP exchange rates.

Brexit may well not prove to be too bad in the long run but it is clear to me the impact on sterling exchange rates still has much further to run, we still know very little about what to expect next. Any signs of an interest rate cut or further Quantitative Easing could easily send the pound lower and I would be most worried about this prospect towards the end of this year or early next.

Sterling is at multi year lows against GBPAUD, GBPCAD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF and GBPZAR..  Make sure you don’t miss out..

  This aware winning blog has enabled tens of thousands of people globally to save money on their currency exchanges through helpful, friendly knowledgeable information from experienced currency brokers. As one of the Chief contributors here I would be delighted to hear from any of you wish for information at this important historic time for the pounds. An email will only take you a minute and the savings on offer could be thousands, what have you to lose. If you have a currency exchange to consider and would like to learn the latest exchange rate forecast please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

Will the Pound get weaker?

I’ve received a large number of emails this morning asking whether the Pound will weaken, it is of my opinion that the Pound will weaken in the foreseeable.

There are a number of factors that we need to consider now that the UK has decided to withdraw from the EU. Firstly, we do not have a date for when the UK will officially withdraw from the EU, this creates an extended period of uncertainty for the UK, which could have implications for businesses. Organisations have to make key decisions on how they manage business policies, expenditures, and expansion. Trade could change, prices could change, employment could change.

How will expatriates deal with the news? Will they return to the UK over fears of losing their rights? How will this impact international estate agencies?

But the bigger question, how will this impact the British economy? If the BoE, the majority of economists and financial institutes all agree that a Brexit could pose negative implications on the UK, what impact will this have on the Pound.

If we look at the timeline of events, the Pound slumped on a leave vote, David Cameron stepped down, Scotland are in the midst of calling their own Referendum and this is only just the beginning.

A new Prime Minister will be elected to trigger article 50, the UK will then be given a deal by the EU which the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble states, is unlikely to be a good one.

In my honest opinion, based on the above alone, Pound Sterling may fall further and if I had a large amount of Euro’s or US Dollar’s to buy, I would be doing it sooner rather than later.

What does an EU withdrawal mean for the Pound?

This morning is a historic event for the EU, as much as it is the UK. The first country ever to withdraw from the EU. David Cameron this morning has given his speech to the British public announcing his resignation – rightly or wrongly – stating that the British people need a new leadership to take them through the withdrawal process.

What does this mean for the UK and more importantly, how will this impact the Pound?

The Pound slumped 11% on the outcome of the vote, FTSE fell sharply but both have stabilised in the early hours of trading. GBPEUR rates remain at 1.25, GBPUSD rates fell sharply from 1.50 to 1.32, lows not seen for 3 decades, before regaining ground to 1.39.

The outlook for the Pound looks bearish, David Cameron’s resignation casts further uncertainty over the future of the UK and until we have some clues as to what deal the EU will give the UK, the Pound could continue to fall in the foreseeable.

Those looking to buy pounds are likely to have an extended period of opportunity until it’s understood the wider implications of a Brexit. In the mean-time, existing agreements with the EU will remain frozen until article 50 is triggered. With the announcement of David Cameron’s resignation, this may not be for some time.

That being said, the UK is vulnerable to economic releases, changes in consumer spending and given that inflation is 0.4%, there are concerns by some that the UK may fall into recession.

Mark Carney of the BoE warned of the potential implications of a Brexit, so have a number of economists, business leaders and financial institutes.

As a Pound buyer, a window of opportunity has opened for you.

The Pound’s recovery is contingent on a number of factors. Who will take over as Prime Minister? What deal will the EU provide? Will the UK suffer economically as a result? How will this impact the global economy?

There are such a large number of factors that could impact Sterling and whether you are buying or selling, rates are still attractive either side with GBPEUR rates now at 1.25 and GBPUSD are moving back up to 1.40. The next few weeks and months ahead are shrouded in uncertainty and I would therefore advise you email me at rdl@currencies.co.uk if you have any concerns about the Pound weakening further.

Anticipated EU Referendum outcome to continue to drive GBP exchange rates (Joseph Wright)

This time next week we’ll know the outcome of the EU Referendum, and I think it’s fair to say that we can expect a bumpy ride for Sterling exchange rates between now and then.

The downward pressure on the Pound would seem to have eased somewhat over the past few days, and this could be due to the lack of campaigning from either the ‘leave’ or ‘remain’ camps after the tragic death of politician Jo Cox. Additionally, yesterday the Bank of England’s Interest Rate decision went largely unnoticed which was unsurprising. It would be a huge shock to have seen the BoE make a change so close to the vote especially after the Fed Reserve over in the US has made us aware that ‘Brexit’ uncertainty has been one of the main reasons that there’s been no changes to US Interest Rates recently.

The quiet couple of days for the Pound have seen it climb slightly, and at the time of writing the central level is 1.2685 which is comfortably above the average of roughly around 1.25 over the past 10 years.

From a personal standpoint I believe the Pound is overvalued if only slightly. I’m surprised to see the central level above 1.25 this close to the Referendum and I think anyone selling Pounds in order to purchase Euro’s can currently do so at favourable levels considering the monumental event next week.

Despite the relatively quiet couple of days we are seeing sharp movements of sudden whole cent gains or losses at times during the day, and I think we can expect to see an increase in volatility levels next week.

If you have an upcoming currency exchange to make involving the Pound, feel free to get in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call in on 01494 787 478 and ask reception for Joe.