Tag Archives: GBPUSD exhange rates

Sterling’s Fall Continues (Daniel Johnson)

The outlook for Sterling against most major currency pairings is far from favorable. It really is taking a hammering of late and I feel the slide could continue. Global Economic uncertainty combined with both poor UK data and the pending  EU referendum does not sit the Pound in good place for the months going forward. Medium to long term the EU referendum will hold back Sterling until the votes have been counted. However should we leave the EU, I think Sterling could well fall in excess of five cents against the Euro and more against USD.

Short term we have Industrial and Manufacturing figures released tomorrow and GDP data on Thursday, I expect a fall in all areas so Sterling’s woes could continue.

GBP/EUR

Although I expect Sterling to slide further against the Euro, it would be prudent not to hang on too long if you are a Euro seller. If Mario Draghi the Head of the European Central Bank decides to increase monthly increments through his Quantitative Easing Program you could see a quick change in GBP/EUR value.

If you would like a more in detail forecast for your individual currency requirement, taking into account time scale and hedging. I will be happy to assist. Please do not hesitate to get in touch. I can guarantee to beat any competitors rate of exchange. You can contact me at dcj@currencies.co.uk .

What impact will the BOE Interest Rate Decision have on Sterling? (Daniel Johnson)

Thursday will see the Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate decision. It is highly unlikely there will be any change. At has remained at 0.5% for years, and Mark Carney has indicated there will be no rat hike until 2017. I doubt anything until 2018 personally.

Although the rate decision itself may be a bit of a non event what is of interest is how the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote. The MPC consists of nine members who vote on whether there should be a change to interest rates. The vote has been coming in at 8-1 for months with Ian McCafferty the sole member voting in favour of a hike. If there is any change in the votes expect market volatility. The current figures coming out for the UK economy are well below par, when coupled with general global economic uncertainty there is an outside chance a member of the MPC could change there vote. If McCafferty changes his stance or another member votes in favor of a rate drop expect Sterling to lose value.

If you would like an in depth forecast to assist with your personal trade requirements I would be happy to assist. I specialise in GBP/EUR, GBP/USD GBP/CHF,  GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD. If you have a currency requirement in such volatile times it is vital to time your trade. I am constantly watching market movement and data releases to try and predict where the market is headed. I am happy to  help you maximise your trade and I can also guarantee to beat any competitors rate.I have consistent large trades going through over the next few days , potentially I can tag new clients on to these trades and gain a very competitive rate.  If you have a currency requirement I would  recommend getting in touch by mailing me directly at dcj@currencies.co.uk . Thank you for reading my blog it is greatly appreciated I look forward to hearing from you.

Sterling Outlook – GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD (Daniel Johnson)

Sterling has lost value against the majority of major currency pairings. This is due to the factors listed below:

  • The EU referendum, during times of political uncertainty the currency in question will weaken. With no resolution for some time this will weigh heavily on the Pound.
  • Poor Retail Sales Figures
  • Poor Manufacturing Data
  • Well below Par Inflation – Inflation currently sits at 0.1% and the target is 2%
  • China’s slow down in Growth

GBP/EUR

The Euro has benefited from China’s slow down with many Investors flooding back to the Euro. This is due to carry trading, where an investor would borrow a currency at a low interest rate, eg the Euro and invest in a riskier currency eg AUD,NZD for higher returns. The global uncertainty sparked by the situation in China has caused investors to panic and move back to the Euro. This combined with the poor data has caused GBP/EUR to drop from 1.42 in December to the low 1.30s where we sit now. It is definitely going to be difficult for Sterling to recover. A big swing could occur if the head the ECB implements lager monthly increments in the Quantitative Easing (QE) Program.

QE is essentially pumping money into a struggling economy in order to stimulate growth. The first opportunity for this to occur will be March. For that reason if I was a Euro seller I may consider moving before. The key data release this week will be the BOE interest rate decision on Thursday. If there is a change in the MPC vote we could see swing si in GBP/EUR value. If you would like a more detailed forecast taking in to account your personal currency requirement please do not hesitate to get in touch using the contact details below.

GBP/USD

Due to the Fed introducing a rate hike in December and indicating further rate hikes in 2016 I do not think there is much hope for the Pound against the Greenback for the foreseeable future. I think the general trend will be a drop in Sterling value. There will no doubt be small Spikes in favour of the Pound but it you will have to follow the markets very closely in order to take advantage of these windows of opportunity. Watch out for Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday afternoon which is renowned for creating market volatility.  If you would like an expert opinion on when would be a wise time to move on your trade please do drop me an email.

GBP/AUD

The RBA recently decided against a rate cut despite China’s growth slipping to a twenty-five year low. The Aussie currently stands firm.I do not think a rate hike is out of the question in March however which could bring Sterling back towards the 2.10 level. AUD sellers have to be particularly wise in order take advantage of their trade. Keep in mind resistance levels when you are choosing your target rate.

Timing a trade correctly is vital to maximising your return, with the help of a broker you can expect to be kept up to date with vital data releases and market movement. My clients have been extremely happy with the way their trades have worked out as of late and I would would take pleasure in assisting any new clients with their trade. I will also guarantee to beat any competitors exchange rate. If you have a currency requirement I would  recommend getting in touch by  e-mailing me directly at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog it is greatly appreciated I look forward to hearing from you.

 

How will GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD fare in February? (Joshua Privett)

Sterling had an incredibly difficult period in January. Rarely is it that currency market movements make the news but the dramatic falls on rates to buy Euros and various Dollars was hard to ignore.

To gain an understanding for how GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD will fare next month it would be invaluable to look back to how the UK economy performed during December and January.

The first few weeks of each month normally see the largest movements for exchange rates on the Pound. This is because the first two weeks are when  data for output in various sectors of the economy are tallied and released for the previous month – causing the value of the economy’s currency to change wildly based on how positive or negative the figures released paint the UK to global markets.

This is why the first few weeks of January saw the most serious slides for Sterling’s value, as December was was proven to be a very testing month.

Due to the flooding in the North, West, and later on parts of the South-East, industrial and manufacturing output slowed dramatically.

Even retail sales during the holiday period only grew at a fifth of what was expected.

With the flooding having continued into January, I would not be surprised that the latest set of figures to be released over the coming weeks will be displaying the UK in a fairly unflattering light.

Furthermore, January had seen the added hit to the financial service industry – the engine room of the British economy.

Deteriorating news coming out of China caused the second serious panic on global stock markets since October. With more capital going out of financial markets than going into them, we could see an added dimension to Sterling’s current weakness this month which will create testing times for Euro and Dollar buyers.

I strongly recommend that anyone with foreign currency to buy using Pounds in the coming months should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels for Euros and Dollars can be fixed to avoid any further currency movements making your future purchase more expensive.

February is a very important month for the pound!

February is a very important month for sterling because we will get the latest news on the UK’s Referendum information and the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report. The pound has been sold because of worries over the EU Referendum or ‘Brexit’, at this point we know very little hence sterling being on the backfoot. Sterling should react to the latest news on this event with interest, February could bring with it three key points.

3 Key Points due  on the Brexit in February which will impact GBP

1 – Referendum Date. Unknown when we will get the date but it could be as early as June or as late as 2017. Once we know the date we can begin to plan and asses how the pound will react.

2 – EU Re negotiations. David Cameron is renegotiating the UK’s relationship with the EU to present the public with a clearer choice ahead of the Referendum. Headlines around good news on how this is going should cause the pound to rise, bad headlines could see sterling slide!

3 – EU Summit 18-19th February. This is when we might know the results of any re negotiations for the UK. Once we know this information markets can digest the information and decide the likely outcome and take positions on the outcome.

Markets hate uncertainty and at present we have lots! Next week is the latest news on the UK economy from the Bank of England which is difficult to be viewed in a positive light but could surprise us. It seems every time the Bank of England or Mark Carney speak sterling dips so this is a very important release.

If you are buying or selling sterling in the future next month will give us clearer direction as we learn the latest news on events that will impact sterling exchange rates. Whether you are buying or selling the pound we are here to help! This year is critical for the UK with the EU Referendum having the potential to really upset decades of economic and political cohesion between the UK and the EU. On amounts of £10,000 to multi millions we work with business and private clients to assist with the very best rates of exchange and provide a helpful, friendly and experienced broker service to guide you through the foreign exchange market. For a quick overview of the market and all of your options when considering a large currency purchase please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

EU Referendum heats up!

The reports David Cameron is close to sealing a deal on being able to better control benefits for immigrating Europeans has helped sterling as this is expected to be a major issue in the vote. Sterling has found some support and this could be a very good opportunity to be buying a foreign currency with sterling as next week is the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report which if anytihng like the last few comments form the Bank should be bad news for sterling! If you are buying or selling the pound 2016 has been very choppy and I expect will continue to be so, further losses for the pound on the whole very likely but there will be spikes to take advantage of. Achieving the best rate in such a market means being able to react quickly to the changing news and events. If you are considering an exchange and wish to be kept up to date with the important events and understand the latest forecasts please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk and I can try to help you.

The pound has really struggled this year because of the uncertainty relating to the UK Referendum on EU Membership. The UK is proposing to hold a Referendum on remaining part of the European Union which it has been a member of since 1973. The likelihood is that the uncertainty around this event will cause the pound to weaken although breaking news today that David Cameron is apparently closing in on a deal has helped the pound to find some favour. I expect this to be a feature of sterling movements in the next few months and right up until the actual Referendum is settled. Sterling will react to the headlines moving higher and lower according to the prevailing sentiment.

Next week is the latest UK data and the Bank of England report, personally I cannot see good news but will better news from the EU help sterling instead? Keep up to date with our blog by bookmarking us or contact me Jonathan directly for updates and assistance planning your exchanges. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information.

Sterling starting to weaken on the markets ahead of tomorrow’s growth figures (Joshua Privett)

Sterling’s value is seen to be dropping marginally against all major currencies this morning – down half a Cent against the Euro, USD, and 1.5 Cents against the Australian Dollar.

Yesterday with little economic data released, buying rates remained relatively flat compared to the serious volatility we have become used to since the beginning of January. The only gains were seen against the Euro as the Eurozone had some poor inflation figures of the own to match what the UK and the rest of the world are currently experiencing.

Today it seems further flooding in the UK from its most recent bout of heavy rain is reminding markets that the first look at growth figures for the final quarter of 2015 in the UK will be released tomorrow morning – explaining the gradual weakening for Sterling rates as the morning progressed.

Frankly, this is a piece of data which is heavily expected to cause some Sterling weakness once the exact figure is confirmed. We have already seen individual looks at the manufacturing, industrial, retail, and service sectors each month between October and December and the slowing trend is quite stark.

This was accelerated during December’s flooding with major manufacturing and industrial centres in the North and West of the country affected, as well as lower buying activity in these areas inhibiting growth in the retail sector.

Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, himself last week was the first to use the description ‘slowing economy’ to describe the UK’s current situation, which led to a near two Cent drop on GBP/EUR, 1.5 Cents on GBP/USD, and 4 Cents on GBP/AUD as the Pound’s value came under further pressure.

Should the growth figures to be released tomorrow morning officially confirm this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see similar falls in Euro and Dollar buying rates on the markets by the close of business on Thursday.

I strongly recommend that anyone looking to purchase foreign currency with Sterling over the next few weeks or months should contact me overnight whilst the markets are quiet on jjp@currencies.co.uk. After explaining your situation we can discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return based on the time period you have to complete your transfer.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current levels can even be fixed if you do not require your currency until a later date. 01494 727 478

Pound slide continues unabated – GBP/EUR and GBP/USD the worst affected (Joshua Privett)

The Pound was hit on multiple fronts yesterday, with its most serious slide in value occurring later on in the afternoon. GBP/EUR rates tumbled by more than two cents and GBP/USD is now at its lowest buying level in years.

Sterling’s slide, particularly for buying Euros, has been so sustained since December that currency exchange rates are actually making the news headlines – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35343792

Recent comments by George Osborne about the serious pressures facing the UK economy during 2016, were compounded by the negative outlook expressed by a normally optimistic Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, yesterday afternoon.

He mentioned there was ‘no need’ to address interest rake hikes at the moment, a far cry from his recent flexible stance, and mentioned the term ‘slowing economy’ to describe the UK.

With the man at the helm of the UK economy stating such remarks, it was understandable that Sterling’s recent fall continued into a further tail slide.

Unfortunately, this fall in buying rates for Euros and US Dollars is not a short-term trend.

The UK is in a slump due to its heavily reliance on a financial service industry which is seeing its biggest test since the financial crisis of 2007/8 – you only have to read the regularly articles in the news concerning Chinese stock-market crashes to get a general feel for current market sentiment.

The recent flooding isn’t helping either. Whilst winding down they are still on-going and its already telling on economic activity.

For example last week, data was released for retail sales growth in December. This was expected to give Sterling a bit of a boost after weeks of negative coverage.

Instead growth came in at a fifth of what was expected. Buying activity is being seriously hampered, and with similar results for our manufacturing and construction sectors, when data for January’s output is tallied in February, we’ll likely be seeing further Sterling weakness to come.

I strongly recommend that anyone with currency to purchase with Sterling in the coming months should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua. We discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to avoid the pitfalls in the markets expected over the coming weeks to maximise your Euro or Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current levels can actually be fixed for six months or more to avoid your purchase becoming more expensive.

Similarly Euro and Dollar sellers can do the same, and we can discuss your options on how to ride any further movements in your favour to their peak within the timeframe you have to complete your exchange. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Have sterling exchange rates bottomed out for now?

The expectations for sterling remain rather unsettled but it does appear that now much of the bad news is priced into current exchange rates. Expectations for the UK economy to have a tough year and for there to be increased anxiety surrounding the UK’s relationship with the European Union will do little to boost confidence in the pound. The uncertainty of the EU Referendum is likely to linger until we have some news on just what ‘concessions’ exactly the Prime Minister has negotiated. In my opinion it seems highly unlikely David Cameron will achieve some of the important terms he seeks as they conflict directly with the core principals of the European Union. One example is Immigration. The UK is seeking tougher new rules on who is allowed into the country and the terms of stay including the duration until they can claim benefits. I think that in the coming weeks once news breaks that the UK is unlikely to have negotiated its position to a more ‘favourable’ EU, the pound will slip further as the bare faced reality of a UK exit from the European Union becomes a real possibility.

to understand where we are going it is useful to look back and one of the main reasons sterling has been so strong in the last year is the prospect of the UK raising their interest rate. Such uncertainty over the EU question leaves any potential interest rate hike much further away in the future and investors are seeking much safer predictable shores such as the US and Euro. Sterling has now fallen to multi year lows against the Euro and Dollar. In my research for this blog and my work generally I have found the Bank of England data team most useful and having contacted some of the team there personally have found them very helpful too. If you have any questions over the latest trends on sterling exchange rates please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk and hopefully I can help you make sense of the latest trends!

The rest of the week is not holding too much fruit for those still hopeful of improvements to sell the pound. Tomorrow we have UK Unemployment data and Thursday the latest European Central Bank meeting. These releases could provide some brief respite for your transfer or present a final consolidation of the recent trends. On balance it does appear that the pound will suffer further in the future. Please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

Will the pound go higher?

Well dear readers, the pound has fallen considerably in 2016. According to Bank of England data the Pound Sterling TWI (Trade Weighted Index) has fallen by over 10% this year. Looking at all the events up ahead this trend could easily continue as other currencies find favour and investors dump the pound.

2016 was always going to be a tough year with the UK Referendum and Chinese market worries predicted to impact exchange rates. With the UK economy we have a number of worries to look out for including the lower GDP than the rest of the world and the strong likelihood of very low Inflation. This all points to a much weaker pound in 2016 than the last year!

Next week we have the latest UK Inflation and Unemployment data but there are other important releases from around the world which will impact GBP exchange rates. Notably Eurozone Inflation data on Tuesday and then the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate decision and Press Conference on Thursday. If buying or selling Euros then this release will be very important to you. The Euro has improved buy over 12 cent against sterling in the last 6 weeks, this trend is causing headaches for Euro buyers and is present unbelievable opportunities for clients selling Euros for pounds. If you are selling Euros following a property sale in the Eurozone and wish for some assistance with the planning and execution of any deals please email me jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information which I am sure you will find very useful.

GBPEUR Range for January 1.25-1.33      GBPUSD Range for January 1.36-1.45     GBPAUD Range for January 2.01-2.10    GBPNZD Range for January 2.15-2.25

The USD is now at a 6 year high against the pound which is a level which could yet improve. A 12 year low on Oil prices is worrying global investors who are buying the USD. This trade by investors is being made yet more attractive by the prospect of the US raising Interest Rates again in the future.

All of these events are construing to cause the pound to lose lots of value. If you are buying or selling the pound the market is still adjusting to the worries surrounding the UK Referendum and trying to make sense of events in China. These events are not going to just disappear overnight so making some plans and understanding your options is more important than ever. For a quick evaluation of your situation and analysis of some options that might suit you best please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

I have worked as a specialist currency broker for 8 years assisting private clients and businesses with their international currency exchanges. I am very sure I can offer you some useful information which will help you in any decision making plus offer a rate which will save you money over other options. Even if you have a system in place double checking your rate and getting a second opinion could be worthwhile.

I look forward to hearing from you!