Tag Archives: GBPUSD
Sterling tentatively up but US Dollar steals spotlight away from buying Euro exchange rate gains (Joshua Privett)
The very politicized landscape for 2017 has struck the currency markets once more, with Sterling gaining strength following very encouraging economic performance news, but still losing out heavily to improvements on the US Dollar and Australian Dollar today.
I’m sure many of the readers here would have seen the news coming out in the last 24 hours about the alleged ties between Trump and Russia. Rather than Russia seeming to be the outside actor influencing the election, there is now talk of the Trump campaign team and Russia actively working together.
What does this have to do with exchange rates?
The value of the US Dollar is heavily linked to the Australian Dollar, and today was the confirmation hearing for the US Secretary of State. With all of this news, markets were worried he would flounder and create an issue for his confirmation hearing. Quite the opposite. He confirmed the party line and seemed to allude to a continuation of previous foreign policy under Obama (i.e. critical of Russia), and market confidence in the Dollar soared, taking the Australian Dollar with it.
So US Dollar and Australian Dollar sellers were gifted some tempting exchange rates from this sudden situation found in the US and the way it was dealt with.
The positive news today for the Pound, however, is still suggestive of further improvements for Sterling in the medium-term. The Supreme Court could be released any day from tomorrow now that they are back in session, and the anticipated result should improve Sterling’s buying power against its major currency pairings.
As in November, when the initial ruling from the Judicial Court stated that Parliament must be consulted to trigger Article 50, rates for buying Euros and Dollars soared.
However, as we edge closer to Article 50 being triggered, this is causing heightened anxiety surrounding the Pound. The sudden drop in the Pound on Monday in reaction to Theresa May’s very vague and hardly shocking comments in an interview on Sunday.
So with the risk of May and other European leaders having to make more and more comments on the aims of the negotiations as we edge closer to March, it can be argued that the clear result of the Supreme Court decision could bring a ‘sweet spot’ on buying Euro and Australian Dollar rates in particular before we edge further into this period of heightened political risk to the value of the Pound.
To ensure you make the most of this particular opportunity, a premium will be put on being able to move quickly over the next few weeks. There are a number of options through a currency exchange specialist which makes sure you are never ‘last to the party’ when more tempting buying opportunities arise, as they are rarely available for long.
You can contact me overnight whilst markets are quiet on email@example.com to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximizing your currency return and protecting it from any sudden pitfalls, which can occur in this marketplace with little warning.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.
Sterling strength expected later in the week, Euro and Dollar sellers should be looking to act soon (Joshua Privett)
It’s been a fairly uneventful beginning to the year on the currency markets, with Sterling exchange rates against the Euro and the US Dollar moving heavily each day, yet by close of business we’ve tended to find ourselves back where we started.
GBP/EUR has reamined around the 1.16/17 mark, GBP/USD has held quite firmly at 1.23, and GBP/AUD around the 1.68-1.70 range.
This exchange rate behaviour is indicative of a market awaiting some very important news.
I hate to flog a dead horse for our regular readers by continuing to address the upcoming Supreme Court decision and the implications this will have for the Pound, but it is incredibly pertinent to anyone planning to buy or sell Sterling for a foreign currency. Not just over the next few weeks as we await the verdict, but over the next few months in the run up to the triggering of Article 50.
For those who are not aware, the Supreme Court is currently ruling an appeal of November’s Judicial Court decision to allow Parliament to vote on the enactment of Article 50 – the formal process to leave the EU.
As in November, financial markets should react well to the decision to involve Parliament in the Brexit process. The Pound’s value increases with investors gaining confidence that Parliament’s involvement will mean the Brexit process will be delayed to some degree due to cumbersome Parliamentary procedures, and that this increases the likelihood of a softer exit from the EU.
You can also argue that Parliament’s involvement means that the aims of the negotiations and how well they will progress will be much more public. This permits greater confidence to invest in the Pound as investors and financial institutions will have a greater understanding of what trajectory the UK economy, and therefore the Pound, will be taking in the medium-term.
The expectation is that the Supreme Court will uphold the initial conclusion of the Judicial court a few months ago. Based on November’s currency movements, this will likely cause 1-2 cent improvements on GBP/EUR, similar gains on GBP/USD, and likely larger positive spikes on GBP/AUD due to the volatile nature of the currency pairing.
The verdict is expected between the 12-17th of January, so if you are a Euro or Dollar seller, it may be wise to move ahead of this coming Thursday to avoid being caught up in any sudden and unannounced spikes in Sterling value when we are told the decision.
Furthermore, on Wednesday data sets for manufacturing and industrial sectors of the UK economy, and a first look at growth for the final quarter of last year, will be released in the morning for markets to react to.
The manufacturing sector has enjoyed a resurgence following the sudden devaluation of the Pound in June, and growth in the UK economy has shown on mutliple occasions since the June vote to Leave the EU to be resiliant to the economic shocks this had entailed.
So, in short, very good news is expected to be provided to Euro, US Dollar and Australian Dollar buyers in the short-term. Two major events are expected to make your transfers more profitable, which is why anyone looking to conduct a Sterling purchase, even over the next few months, should look to how you can secure these still historically favourable exchange rates before Wednesday.
If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in touch with me on firstname.lastname@example.org in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current exchange rates can be fixed in place for anyone wanting to prebook their currency transfer later in the year at current exchange rates.
The pound is fairly stable and range bound at present as markets keenly await the next direction of the Brexit. We are all eagerly awaiting the next bits of news over the Supreme Court decision and it is this which will determine the more immediate direction on the currency pairing. If you have a transfer to consider involving sterling understanding what is happening and being ready to react is the best way to capitalise on this news. At the moment we do not know when the decision will be released and this is keeping the market nervously on its toes.
Essentially upholding the previous High Court decision should see the pound rally but I think the gains will be limited. My personal expectation is for this to lead to sterling gaining up to 2% against its counterparts. If the decision goes for the government sterling will fall because I believe markets have very much priced in ‘good news’ that the previous decision would be upheld. If it falls in this scenario sterling could lose up to 4% as it becomes apparent a hard Brexit is more likely again. Sterling might retest the kind of levels we saw back in October last year.
After the Supreme Court decision attention will still remain on the Brexit and any good news for sterling will be shortlived in my opinion. There will still be many unanswered questions and as the resignation of Sir Ivan rogers, the UK’s Ambassador to the EU shows there is scope for further political casualties. Attention towards the end of the quarter will focus on the likelihood of Theresa May triggering Article 50 plus the Dutch and French elections. I expect GBPEUR could trade between 1.12 – 1.23 depending on the various outcomes here. If you wish to trade at these levels and wish to be kept informed of developments please email me on email@example.com
The big news on the US dollar is the likelihood of further interest rate rises. A strong jobs report has given rise to expectation we could see further interest rate hikes soon and GBPUSD has dipped. I expect GBPUSD to trade between 1.14 and 1.25 in the coming weeks. As you can see I feel the US dollar will be strengthening.
If you have a currency transfer involving sterling and wish to optimise your position with some expert insight and information please contact me Jonathan on firstname.lastname@example.org. I work as a currency specialist and have appeared on BBC News discussing Brexit and the impact on the currency markets. I would be very happy to hear from you and answer any questions and help you with your situation.
Thank you for reading, I hope to hear from you soon.
What you need to know about Brexit and the impact of Brexit on exchange rates
Throughout 2016 ‘Brexit’ was the main talking point for sterling exchange rates and I expect this trend to continue for at least the next two quarters.
When the UK public voted out of the European Union the consensus was that the UK would also be leaving the single market.
However the High Court ruled UK Prime Minister Theresa May does not have the power to invoke Article50 and therefore leave the single market.
The Prime Minister disagreed with the High Court ruling and last month took her case to the Supreme Court in hope that the decision will be overturned. The verdict is set to be released some point this month.
It’s important to realise Brexit is complex, however if you are buying or selling pounds in the upcoming months we have seen trends over the last 7 months that should help your decision making.
When the UK voted out of the EU in June and as a country we were under the impression we would exit the single market GBPEUR and GBPUSD plummeted to lows of 1.10 and 1.2190.
As soon as the High Court ruled that an exit from the single market will occur once Theresa May has approval from Government (very unlikely this would materialise) GBPEUR and GBPUSD increased to highs of 1.2015 and 1.2750.
Looking ahead to the Supreme Court decision this month, I believe there are two outcomes to exchange rates once we hear the verdict.
If the Supreme Court rule in favour of the High Court an exit from the single market becomes unlikely and therefore the pound makes gains against all of the major currencies.
If the Supreme Court overturn the High Court an exit from the single market could occur as early as March and therefore the pound plummets to lows we saw only 3 months ago.
How can I help you?
The currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients rates of exchange that they won’t be able to achieve by using their own bank.
Property purchases and sales are my area of expertise, therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale abroad, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and to get an understanding of how we can save you as much money as possible.
When purchasing currency it’s crucial to analyse both the currencies you will be trading, as your 2nd currency will also have an impact on the pair.
Feel free to email me the currency pair you are converting (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair and the process of using our company email@example.com.
** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **
Pound sees tentative rises for buying Euros and Dollars ahead of the thinner trading of the Christmas period (Joshua Privett)
Buying Euro, USD and Australian Dollar exchange rates have shown a noticeable uptake ahead of the Christmas period with rates above the 1.19 level on GBP/EUR, and above 1.70 on GBP/AUD being realized ahead of markets closing for the weekend.
The gains against the Euro and Australian Dollar in particular this week were due to a lower demand for these currencies which sucked away some of their recent, and frankly over-inflated, value. The clear driving force behind this movement is attributed to the historic rise in interest rates in the US, only its second time the FED have been do so since the financial crisis.
The USD/EUR currency pairing is the most heavily traded in the world – frankly because they are the two most widely used currencies globally. So as a rule of thumb, due to the large amounts of transfers and exchanges concentrated between the pair, when one of the two currencies suddenly gets a large boost in demand, as we saw this week, the other loses value through a corresponding slackening in demand. This is why GBP/EUR briefly managed to maintain its vantage point above the 1.19 level.
The interest rate on the Australian Dollar is at record lows but still much higher than elsewhere at 1.5%, compared to the UK’s at 0.25% as an unfortunate example. However, it is traditionally seen as an unstable currency due to its links to the commodities market, so when you have a safe-haven currency which raises its base interest rate rate, investors like to opt for this safer option, and the sell-off of Aussies for US Dollars is why USD/AUD gained today, as well as GBP/AUD – tipping over the 1.70 level for the second time this week.
Moving forward however, Euro and Dollar buyers have the phenomenon of profit taking to deal with as unusual end of year market forces take hold of exchange rates over the next few weeks.
At the close of the year, and what a year it has been, traders have to consolidate their profits in a stable currency for the rough 2-week period when they are away from their desks. This protects their capital from any adverse movements in what are normally ‘safe-haven’ currencies, so that when they come back to the desks the amount of capital they are managing hasn’t been worryingly eaten into. Of course the Pound is anything but stable at the moment and will likely suffer in the sell-off that ensues.
As such anyone with a buying Euro or Dollar requirement may be wise to move sooner rather than later to avoid the hefty amount of risk which should be piled onto Sterling in the very near term.
Since Trump became President in November, Euro buyers have gained over 11 cents in the marketplace for GBP/EUR and 10 cents on GBP/AUD. Meaning that in real terms on a £100,000 transfer buyers have gained an additional €11,000 or $10,000 in the space of 6 weeks. Understandably, the popular option at the moment is to consolidate those gains.
The turn of the New Year has many forks in the UK and therefore the Pound between January and March which are difficult to account for ahead of time, and markets will be factoring this in to the price of Sterling moving forward which could end up being expensive for anyone with a planned Euro or Dollar based obligation to meet in the New Year.
Sterling buyers of course may consider the opposite and play the currency markets by ear as we edge closer to the Christmas period to try at catch the market at any peaks which emerge.
If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and a foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on firstname.lastname@example.org over the weekend in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.
This evening the Federal Reserve will release their latest interest rate decision. It was 12 months ago to the day when the FED decided to hike interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5% and on the 12th month anniversary many economists believe a hike is inevitable.
If the US do decide to hike interest rates speculators should flock to the US dollar to make profit from their investments and therefore I expect GBPUSD (cable) to fall.
As for GBPEUR exchange rates, EURUSD is the most commonly traded pair and a general trend is that if one currency strengthens then the other weakens. Therefore we could see the pound make some gains against the euro if Chairlady Janet Yellen decides to hike.
Looking ahead to next year, the Supreme Court decision for the UK could put pressure on the pound and therefore exchange rates could fall. For people purchasing a foreign currency next year the safe option is to purchase upfront.
If you are buying or selling the pound in the upcoming months UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s March deadline to invoke Article50 should have a major impact on the exchange rates you will receive. Feel free to email me with the pair (GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPAUD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is email@example.com and I look forward to receiving your email.