Tag Archives: gdp

Sterling not feeling the festive spirit in the lead up to Christmas (Daniel Wright)

The Pound does not appear to be too jolly in the lead up the Christmas showing slight losses against most major currencies so far this week.

We have a few key economic data releases in the next few days and with slightly thinner trading levels during this time of year you can see larger swings than normal off the back of normal economic data.

For anyone that has a currently requirement coming up in the next few weeks you must be aware that leaving a position open over the festive season can be a risky strategy, especially if you are not going to be fully available to watch the markets or transfer funds should there be a big movement in your favour or against you.

Public sector net borrowing figures have been released this morning for the U.K were a little worse than expectations and we also have Consumer Confidence figures out overnight tonight and GDP (Growth) figures on Friday morning.

This is not to forget that we also have the on-going and well publicised Brexit talks and the pending Supreme Court decision on article 50 which will no doubt lead to  a large market movement. Expectations on the result of this decision are for early in January but as 2017 has shown us surprises can pop up and things do get leaked so do not be surprised if the market starts to move on rumours well in advance of this coming out.

All in all this year has been fairly jam packed with big political and Economic information which we hope we have kept you fully up to date with. If you carry out currency exchanges through your bank or a broker at present and you find our market information useful then why not give us a try. We do not only pride ourselves on providing up to date and non-biased market information but we also offer fantastic rates of exchange and a high level of customer service at the brokerage we work for too.

Pound Sterling Forecast has been running for 7 years and the brokerage we work for has been running for 17 years so we have a wealth of experience in assisting clients with currency exchanges so will be more than happy to help.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Autumn Statement to decide Sterling exchange rate movement (Tom Holian)

Sterling exchange rates have opened up negatively this morning against all major currencies including vs the Euro and the US Dollar as we are now only a few hours away from the Autumn Statement.

The recently appointed Chancellor or the Exchequer Philip Hammond will deliver the news later today and it could be a tricky release bearing in mind the political events that have taken place so far during 2016.

One of the key issues will be how the Chancellor plans to move away from Osborne’s previous plan to cut the trade deficit by 2020. With GDP expected to be downgraded for 2017 from 2.2% to 1.3% it will be difficult for Hammond to provide too many positive ideas for the UK so I think we could see some problems for Sterling during today’s trading session.

The Pound has seen some gains recently as the tone from Europe appears to be softening towards the Brexit and ongoing talks are that we could see a soft Brexit with possible access to the single market when the negotiations finally begin.

The Italian referendum is also due in a fortnight so politically there are clearly problems ahead for the Eurozone and this could be reflected in Euro weakness in the medium term.

Therefore, if you need to buy Euros in the short term then it may be worth looking at doing something shortly before the Autumn Statement is released.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident that not only can I save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank when buying or selling currency but also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Or call me directly on 00441494787478 and ask for me directly when calling in.

 

 

Sterling makes huge gains against the Euro, US Dollar and all other major currencies following Trump’s victory (Tom Holian)

Sterling has made huge gains against the Euro during the course of the week since it was announced that Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States of America. With many leaders across Europe rather outspoken against Trump our very own Prime Minister has been rather more diplomatic speaking out and congratulating Trump and focusing on own strong historical ties with the US.

This had led the Pound to gain against all major currencies including the biggest weekly gain against the Euro in over 5 years!

The US is the single biggest nation that we trade with with over 6% of our GDP exported to the US or the equivalent of USD$51bn last year.

Previously Obama has stated that the UK will go to ‘back of the line’ when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the UK if it votes to leave the European Union. However, as Trump has business interests in the UK and with his support of the Brexit him coming in could indeed improve trade relations between the US and the UK.

This is why we have seen such big gains for the Pound this week since the elections result.

During 2016 it appears as though the voice of anti-establishment is rising with the UK voting for Brexit, Trump winning and the Italians holding their own referendum next month. The change is apparent via outlets such as social media and with the French and Germans due to hold their own elections next year we could see a change in leadership in both European nations in 2017.

The gains this week for Sterling exchange rates have been rapid and could continue but the issue of Article 50 has not gone away yet and the challenge will take place in the first week of December but we may not have the answer until January which could delay the negotiations even further.

In order to take advantage of these recent spikes if you’re worried about the uncertainty ahead and need to make a currency transfer before the end of the year it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident not only of offering you better exchange rates compared to using your own bank when buying or selling currency but also help you with the timing.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like further information or for a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward t hearing from you. 

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Alternatively fill in the form below

 

UK interest rate decision looming (Dayle Littlejohn)

This Thursday the UK are set to release their latest interest rate decision which will put pressure on sterling throughout the afternoon trading session and potentially for months to come.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have already cut interest rates since the UK public decided to vote out of the EU and there is a good chance a further cut will occur this Thursday. If this is the case investors could move their assets out of the pound and into a different currency with a higher yield and therefore the pound will lose value.

Economists predictions are split on the decision. Personally I believe last weeks GDP figures will have swayed some members of the MPC to hold off and therefore a cut will not occur. However at least one or two members will vote to cut and consequently the pound will fall in value.

Until we have further certainty in regards to Brexit I believe their are further falls to come for the pound therefore clients purchasing a foreign currency in the next 6 months should start to make plans sooner rather than later.

Feel free to email me the currency pair you are trading (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk.

My area of expertise is property purchases and sales. Therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale abroad, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and to get an understanding of how we can save you as much money as possible.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Will Sterling fall further against the US Dollar in the run up to the election (Tom Holian)

We are now less than 2 weeks before the US goes to the polls to deicde whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will become the next US president. At the moment it appears as though Clinton is leading in the polls with 49% compared to 45%. However, as the Brexit proved polls can be very unreliable.

The US economy is going from strength to strength and yesterday GDP figures for the third quarter came out at 2.9% in the three months to September according to the US Commerce Department. Jobless claims also showed that unemployment levels are falling so everything looks to be on course for an interest rate hike in the world’s leading economy.

To me I think the US Federal Reserve have more than enough reasons to increase interest rates but with the election looming I think they are waiting to see what happens with the next president.

The GDP figures for the year showed 0.4% better than the expectation of 2.5% and this has seen GBPUSD exchange rates fall to close to their lowest level in 31 years.

Even though this week the UK posted better than expected GDP data this did little to improve the Pound vs the Greenback and this highlights the problems that the UK is facing with the announcement that Article 50 will be triggered by March 2017. Since the Brexit Sterling has fallen dramatically and I think we could see further falls ahead for Sterling exchange rates against all major currencies. Indeed, Sterling is the world’s worst performing currency on the global money markets this year.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident that I can offer you bank beating exchange rates and also help you with the timing of your currency transfer.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want further information or for a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Alternatively fill in the form below

 

 

Flat start to the week for Sterling exchange rates but what can we expect as the week evolves? (Daniel Wright)

A fairly flat day for the pound against most major currencies so far today, with Sterling trading in a very thin range against Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar exchange rates.

We have had very little economic data out of note today however there are a number of other releases that are worth noting as the week moves on.

Tomorrow we have two key speeches from both the Governor of the Bank of England (Mark Carney) at 15:30pm and Head of the European Central Bank (Mario Draghi) an hour later at 16:30pm. Both of these may lead to a volatile afternoon for Sterling and Euro exchange rates.

Many speculators and investors will be watching every word during both of these speeches for any hints to future changes in economic policy and the market will no doubt move around extremely quickly should any hint to new changes arise.

If you have an exchange to carry out and you would like to be kept up to date with the action then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) by emailing me personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch with you.

Late on Tuesday night we have a flurry of inflation data which will be interesting for anyone with the need to buy or sell Australian Dollars, especially with the market rate for GBP/AUD hanging around the pivotal point of 1.60. Expectations are for Australian inflation figures to remain fairly static however any result that differs from this may lead to a sharp movement overnight. There are ways to take advantage of overnight movements in your favour, most notably a limit order where you request that if a certain rate of exchange becomes achievable at any point 24 hours a day then your currency will be bought out automatically for you. This contract type is free to use with us and can be extremely handy.

The Dollar and New Zealand Dollar take centre stage on Wednesday with lots of data out from the States over the course of Wednesday afternoon and then import, export and trade balance data out for New Zealand later in the evening at 22:45pm – Again a limit order may be worth considering overnight if you are close to your target rate and do not wish to miss out should a spike occur.

Thursday will be important for Sterling exchange rates as we have GDP (Gross Domestic Product) or growth figures out at 09:30am and then later in the day Durable Goods and Jobless Claims data out for the States which will impact U.S Dollar exchange rates.

We round the week off with lots of data our from all over Europe which will impact Euro exchange rates and then U.S GDP (Growth) figures to wrap up the week which can have an impact on all major currencies as it has an effect on global attitude to risk.

On top of everything we have the U.S election which will no doubt keep the Dollar on its toes so we have a lot for the market to digest throughout the week.

if you have a currency exchange to carry out either now or in the coming weeks and months then it is well worth getting in touch with me personally. I can help you not only ensure you get a market leading rate of exchange but also that you get an extremely high and award winning level of customer service too. You are welcome to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk which will take you merely two minutes to do and may save you thousands of Pounds in the future. I look forward to assisting you.

Has Sterling’s recovery against the Euro come to an end? (Tom Holian)

Sterling hit its best level to buy Euros since early August earlier this week but yesterday the recovery for the Pound was stopped in its tracks.

UK manufacturing and production data highlighted the problems that the British economy is facing since the vote to leave the European Union.

The problems for Sterling continued yesterday when the NIESR released its latest GDP estimate for the last three months which showed a fall to 0.3%.

Later today we could see the next trend emerging for Sterling vs the Euro when the European Central Bank meets to unveil its latest monetary policy decision.

With inflation in the Eurozone still struggling and worryingly low this could tempt the ECB to look at a change but I would be very surprised to see anything today.

However, any rhetoric showing signs of a further interest rate cut coming or further Quantitative Easing could see pressure on the single currency.

The ongoing issue for Sterling exchange rates against all major currencies is really when or if Article 50 may be triggered. The uncertainty has been one of the main reasons why the Pound has continued to struggle particularly against the Euro and the US Dollar.

UK Trade Balance data is due to be published tomorrow morning and this could also put pressure on the Pound vs the Euro if the figures come out lower than expected.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Donors are favouring a ‘Brexit’, but will the UK public and how could this affect GBP? (Joseph Wright)

Those with an interest in the value of the Pound will be aware of the potential effects a ‘Brexit’ could have on Sterling’s value, so for some the title of this blog might be quite alarming.

Earlier today the Electoral Commission revealed that collectively, the ‘Leave’ campaigns have been given £700,000 more than the ‘Remain’ camp from February to April.

Not only have the groups campaigning to leave the Eurozone been given £8.2m in donations from the 1st of February to 21st of April, but the ‘Brexit’ polls have showed that so far this month there is a gain in support for leaving the Eurozone.

With the actual referendum now less than 6 weeks away, this information is hugely important when we consider that analysts with investment bank HSBC earlier this year stated there is potential for price parity with regards to the GBPEUR exchange rate, which would be a massive drop from the current levels which although down today, they are still holding strong at 1.2651 at inter-bank level.

Whilst the uncertainty of the UK’s political future is currently the major factor driving GBP exchange rates, tomorrow could be a different story as it will be the busiest day for the UK in terms of financial news releases with some dubbing it ‘Super Thursday’.

The Bank of England will announce it’s most recent Interest Rate Decision tomorrow along with the subsequent Minutes and Monetary Policy Stance. Although nothing is expected to change, should any of the 9 voting members have changed their minds from the previous vote, we can expect to see volatility within exchange rates. Moreover, should a particularly bullish or bearish tone by adopted during the speech, that too could create volatile trading conditions or a major spike in either direction we we’re prepared for a busy day tomorrow.

This data is due out tomorrow at 12, so for those that have a currency requirement involving GBP, that are happy with the current rate of exchange, my suggestion would be to get in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk bright and early so we can help you secure a rate of exchange before the news sensitive data comes out. We’re one of the longest standing regulated currency brokers in the UK, and we offer award winning exchange rates so feel free to email me or call on 01494 787 478 if you wish to discuss your requirements.

GBPEUR finishes 0.8% down from the start to end of trading (Dayle Littlejohn)

The question all clients are asking that need to buy euros this year, os whether to buy now or wait for the tides to turn? Quite simply my strategy would be to buy sooner rather than later.

There are 3 main reasons for GBPEUR continuing to slide:

  • Last week the Bank of England cut growth forecasts and confirmed an interest rate hike is off the cards this year.
  • The US have indicated they also wont be raising interest rates this year and we therefore saw a mass sell off of USD to buy Euros.
  • China is continuing to struggle  therefore the commodity currencies surrounding China have unwound their carry trades and invested back into the euros.

It’s important when trading currency you analyse both of the currencies in question. If you have an upcoming currency transfer to make this week, month or year I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair (GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD etc) and your individual requirement (buying a property abroad, paying a company invoice) and I will personally respond to you with my forecast and the process of using our company.

Quite simply we can give you economic information to help you time your transfer and can also offer you a better exchange rate than what you would receive with your bank and other brokerages. This can be anywhere between 1-5%. My direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn. Alternatively call me Monday morning on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you would simply like a comparison against your provider email me with the exact figures, time scales and the best number to contact you on and I will call you with our live buying price. This will take 2 minutes and could save you thousands! 

Busy day for the pound! Will sterling rise or fall?

Sterling is likely to really struggle in the current environment with lots of pressure over expectations the Bank of England will cut growth and inflation forecasts for the UK. There has been immense uncertainty surrounding the UK’s Brexit expected to be finalised in the coming months. The Bank of England is likely to discuss today the uncertainty relating to this event and this will in my opinion undoubtedly lead to GBP weakness. The EU Referendum is just another worry to lump on the back of the pound which has had one of its worst ever starts to a year.

Falling Inflation has removed any need for an interest rate hike and expectations for a hike which seemed so likely only a few months ago are now being price well into 2017. The main trigger for the pound to rise should be an interest rate rise or signs of an improving economy. With little sign of the right conditions arising for an interest rate rise I would expect the pound will really struggle in the coming weeks and months. From an investors point of view I think sterling is really likely to struggle to maintain composure in this market and today’s data is key to highlighting the extent to which uncertainty is rife.

For more information on the latest tends and themes to impact your exchange rate please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. In my role as a foreign exchange specialist I am very confident I can offer you some useful facts and information to help you get a better deal.