Tag Archives: gdp
U.K GDP figures better than expected!
Wow, what a busy day on the markets and indeed on our trading floor following much better than expected GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures released for the U.K.
The Pound has gained against all major currencies as figures released were much better than expected coming out at 0.3% growth instead of the expected 0.1%.
This has provided a great buying opportunity for anyone looking to buy foreign currency – If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out then feel free to call me immediately djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of your requirement and a number for me to call you back on. We specialise in getting the very best rates of exchange for bank to bank transfers so it is worth sending a quick email over for a comparison against your bank or current provider, we may save you hundreds if not thousands.
Why not join our mailing list too, I keep clients fully up to date with market movements and offer an extremely proactive service ensuring you can get on with your busy day without having to worry about what is happening on the market – we do that for you.
Once again, djw@currencies.co.uk is where you can make an enquiry – I look forward to hearing from you.
Crunch time for the UK, will recession be avoided? Exchange rate forecasts (Mike Vaughan)
As my colleagues post highlights opinion in the office is entirely divided. The majority of traders believe a 0.1% figure will be released and this in turn should lend support to sterling exchange rates as a result. I for one have predicted this and hope for a better day pushing GBP/EUR above 1.18, GBP/USD towards 1.54 and GBP/AUD pushing closer to 1.50 – a trigger point for many AUD buyers.
Of course the decision will be a close one and many of those with an interest in the money markets will be keeping a very close eye on the 09:30 release. The office has a range of predictions from 0.1% to – 0.2%. To avoid recession we need to see 0% or better, something that may give the economy a much needed boost. Of late data in the UK has been somewhat better with the only exception retail sales, but these have been affected by unseasonably poor weather, something you cannot legislate for. Today could prove incredibly volatile, should you wish to remove this uncertainty then get in touch early on 01494 787478 or email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Although UK GDP data is likely to dominate today’s trading, other data to watch out for will include the following:
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 – expecting to show a slight decrease possibly lending support to the US dollar this afternoon.
Overnight we have the interest rate decision from Japan – expected to stay on hold at 0.1% and should cause little movement for GBP/JPY but watch out for the Bank of Japans monetary statement that will follow. This will outline the policies the BofJ will have in store and could have an impact on riskier currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR as the JPY is often used in conjunction with these currencies through he use of a carry trade. This is when investors borrow in a low yielding currency i.e. JPY and look for higher grossing currencies such as AUD, NZD and ZAR. It is a risky trade as the exchange rate movement can remove any gains from the higher yield offered and as a result economic sentiment from Japan could adversely affect the riskier currencies. I for one feel further opportunities will be seen for buyers of the AUD, NZD and ZAR in the coming few days and weeks.
To finish off the week watch out for annualised US GDP at 13:30 tomorrow. Expected to show a strong improvement which should drive cable rates back towards 1.51/52 to finish off the working week.
Should you have an upcoming trade to arrange and you would like to discuss the market in more detail and how we can help you achieve a competitive commercial rate of exchange then please get in touch. We are here to help. Please email with your particular currency requirement and I will happily get in contact to discuss your options to help you maximise your trade. Email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Our trading floor predictions for tomorrow – GDP figures and the high/low against the Euro (Daniel Wright)
I thought it may be interesting to quiz a group of traders on our trading floor regarding their thoughts on what we may see tomorrow for the U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures and where this may put rates during the day against the Euro.
The general feeling appeared to be growth for the U.K – Only just however, below below are the predictions of the traders we polled – if you fancy making your own prediction then email it to me
djw@currencies.co.uk why not see if you can beat the traders, we may even give away a prize if anyone is spot on!
Personally I feel we may see 0.1% growth as expected just about avoiding recession and that the market will creep up a little but will not absolutely rocket as many people do already expect the U.K to just about tiptoe around the R word.
If we are technically back in a recession you would imagine the Pound may drop considerably so it is key to have protection in place if you are close to budget on your overseas purchase – You can place a stop loss order (setting yourself a worst case scenario to be bought out automatically) or book some of your funds on a forward contract (booking a rate for a date in advance for a small deposit) Email me directly if you want a full explanation on these free contract types or just want assistance and the best exchange rates on any currency transfers. Catch me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief explanation of your requirements and a number to call you back on and I will be more than happy to help.
Our predictions – Just goes to show how close this is!
| Dealer | GDP | HIGH/LOW |
| JMW | -0.30% | 1.1684 |
| SPE | 0.40% | 1.218 |
| CAB | 0.20% | 1.195 |
| ATR | 0% | 1.1889 |
| THE | -0.10% | 1.1862 |
| MGV | 0.10% | 1.185 |
| JLL | 0.10% | 1.184 |
| CMG | 0.20% | 1.1837 |
| HJR | 0.10% | 1.1811 |
| BMA | 0.10% | 1.1786 |
| AJB | 0.10% | 1.1765 |
| MTV | 0.10% | 1.1631 |
| ASP | -0.10% | 1.1625 |
| TRH | -0.10% | 1.158 |
| PFH | -0.20% | 1.154 |
| DJW | 0.10% | 1.182 |
| HSE | 0.10% | 1.178 |
How will tomorrow pan out? Email me your prediction djw@currencies.co.uk
Poor economic data starts the day on the wrong foot for Sterling but a modest NIESR GDP figure gives the Pound a mid afternoon boost (Daniel Wright)
Sterling yet again started the week off with a less than impressive economic data release this time involving weak factory output figures released this morning. Yet again within minutes fears of a triple dip recession led to Sterling weakness against most major currencies and for those of you looking to buy foreign currency in the near future rates of exchange headed down to new 2013 lows.
However, we actually for once saw a slight turnaround later on in the day as the NIESR (National Institute of Social and Economic Research) released their estimate for GDP figure for the first three months of 2013. Although not great, the NIESR actually predicted that the U.K economy only shrank by 0.1% which although would place us back into a recession does mean that if the NIESR have got it slightly wrong and we see 0% or even positive growth then we may have avoided it.
It appears that many analysts were expecting the figure to be a lot more negative and the Pound shot up by nearly three quarters of a cent over the afternoon getting clients buying Euros over €750 more on a £100,000 purchase.
As soon as we saw the markets creep up being proactive currency brokers we were straight on the phone to our clients informing them of the potential opportunity and some snapped up the chance. If you feel being made aware of spikes in the market in the coming days and weeks may be of use to you then why not register your interest with me directly my emailing me djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief explanation of your exact requirements and timescales.
Tomorrow morning is fairly quiet on the economic data front however in the afternoon we have U.S Retail sales and tomorrow late at night the RBNZ ( Reserve Bank of New Zealand) interest rate decision and Monetary policy statement. It is clear the New Zealand Government are not happy with such a strong New Zealand Dollar so will they step in or say something that leads to NZD weakness to counter it? Keep cheicking here for more information on what happens.
With the Dow Jones at extremely high levels, the Dollar rapidly gaining strength and European problems being extremely quiet I cannot help but feel that something fairly major is just around the corner for world markets – What it is i’m afraid I do not know but as someone working in the industry for numerous years I just have the feel that there will be reasonably big news in the coming months. With this in mind you need to ensure that you do protect yourself in case we do see a huge drop in value for a particular currency and if you have a pending transfer to make it is usually a safer option to hedge a little and maybe split your transfer into smaller chunks, thus eliminating the full risk.
If you want assistance with any upcoming bank to bank transfer involving any of the major currencies then contact me today and I will be more than happy to help you not only better your current exchange rate but I will be proactive whilst trying to help you get your timing right too. Contact me today djw@currencies.co.uk I look forward to speaking with you.
GBPEUR, GBPUSD rates wary of the first 2013 GDP figures today that could move rates dramatically (Steve Eakins)
Sterling rates have held steady over the last 24 hours near a 18 month low for GBPEUR and 2½ year low for GBPUSD however data today could drive markets could change this dramatically. In fact one piece of data today could drive rates for the next few weeks, it is a key day for anyone with a currency exchange to make. To start the day we have releases from Germany, France and Italy which will drive the euro price followed by UK news at 9:30. The UK news at 9:30 will give us information about the productivity of both the Industry Sector and the Manufacturing Sectors of the domestic economy. Expectations are for a fall to be seen so don’t be surprised if we see the Pound fall against all major currencies in early trading today.
The biggest news however will be from the UK mid-afternoon. At 3PM GMT the National Institute of Economic and Social Research release their forecasts for the Gross Domestic Figures for the UK Economy through this quarter. Importantly Q4 figures for 2012 saw a contraction so if we see another quarter of negative growth the UK will technically be in a RECESSION, again, for the third time. Adding to the recent loss of the UK AAA credit rating, unemployment figures still climbing and calls for a change to the austerity plan in Government there is a lot of unknowing and worry about the state of the UK economy. Recently this has also been seen in another way as the price of our borrowing costs which are all going up, (bond markets.) Government Debt management, so the interest we pay on debts, is expected to be the third largest expense for the government next year. Bigger than Education and the armed forces combined so something to be really worried about.
Why is this important to your currency move? Well this gets reflected in the strength of Sterling so is why rates have been tumbling this year and are expected to fall going forward. (GBPEUR rates are down 7.5% and GBPUSD down 8% since the start of the year.)
So when do I buy my currency?
Well the bad news is that due to the comments above the general expectation is for rates to continue to fall this coming few months, so buying currency or limiting your exposure sooner rather than later might be wise.
The good news is that exchange rates do not move in a straight line so there will be better opportunities for the quick moving clients. Here this is a service that we provide every hour of every day. Informing our client base of SPIKES in the market so a saving can be found. We put strategies together for our clients helping them try and time their respective transfers and this is something we can offer to you. With a host of economic data due this week (the busy days are today and Friday,) I would expect another SPIKE in the near future. If this is of interest to you and you would like to have access to this kind of information feel free to contact us either on the normal number or with me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk.
You can also register your interest for SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS by emailing us details of your situation including; name, contact number, currency pair, volume and timeframe to hse@currencies.co.uk
Look forward to hearing from you.
Pound Sterling exchange rates set for a busy morning tomorrow as Mervyn king speaks following a fairly solid day today
After a positive day for the Pound will King boot exchange rates straight back down?
The Pound actually had a fairly positive day on the currency markets today actually ending up being one of the best performing of the 16 most actively traded currencies even with a slight drop at the end of the days trading.
Retail sales figures released by the British Retail Consortium and our PMI services sector survey both came out positive which provided a welcome boost to the Pound for those of you looking to buy foreign currency in the near future.
If you are in this position though you must beware, well known in recent years for his outstanding ability to devalue the Pound at the drop of a sentence, Governor of the Bank of England Sir Mervyn King speaks tomorrow morning at 09:45am.
Any hint of further QE (Quantitative Easing) for the U.K could cause a rapid slide back down for Sterling, and King’s comments will be monitored closely by investors as we have the Bank of England interest rate decision tomorrow at midday. If we avoid any further bombshells from King tomorrow I expect us to remain in the 1.16s potentially at the higher end, if we do have yet another speech of doom and gloom then be prepared for 1.15 and possibly below by the end of the day.
Key data: European GDP figures also due tomorrow morning
Another factor which may have an effect on Sterling/Euro exchange rates may be European GDP figures due out at 10:00am tomorrow morning. The figure will be the final revision of how the Eurozone performed in Q4 last year and expectations are for figures to be revised down from -0.1% to -0.6% – Quite a contrast to the original level.
Should this be the case it will confirm once again that the Eurozone is indeed in a great deal of trouble as anyone without their head in the sand should already know. Personally as this is already predicted I don’t see it weakening the Euro too much, however this news will not help the performance of the Euro and may start to push the Pound back towards being the best of a bad bunch.
Australian GDP figures released overnight
Overnight we seethe release of GDP figure from Australia and they are expected to confirm once again that Australia is still performing extremely well throughout this global recession.
Surely you would think there may come a point where the downward trend for GBP/AUD exchange rates will stop and I agree, however I feel that we will need to see a hike interest rates in the U.K start to start to really see this trend turning around and unfortunately we are potentially quite a way away from seeing this happen.
Interest rate decisions key this week
Be aware there are indeed a number of interest rate decisions out for Canada, Japan, U.K and Europe – not to mention bank stress test results and Non-Farm payroll data for the states this week.
These may not only affect their specific currencies but any other fiscal comments may affect global attitude to risk. If you have a pending currency transfer to make you should ensure you have a proactive currency broker on your side to keep you up to date with the very latest market movements.
You can email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirements and a contact number and I will be more than happy to assist you.
So after poor GDP figures and indeed poor data all round in January.. Where next for the Pound? Have the Bank of England tried to get a head start in the so called ‘currency wars’ we may be due to encounter? (Daniel Wright)
The Pound has quite frankly had an awful start to the year with poor services and manufacturing data, retail sales and GDP figures being some of the most notable causes towards Sterlings current downward trend. We have seen major stores finding trouble which will only knock unemployment down further and confidence in the Pound is extremely low at present.
Some of the great gains we made against most majors in the last quarter of last year have already been wiped out and the ‘safe haven’ status of Sterling does not appear to be on any investors lips for the time being. Ever the optimist I personally feel we will recover however how long it takes is the million Dollar question right now.
Head of the Bank of England Mervyn King has already commented that he expects so called currency wars to happen in the future and I think all this doom and gloom for the U.K is giving us a head start before others get to make a move. I think the reason currency wars may come into play is because with certain currencies such as the Australian Dollar and Swiss Franc being so strong it will no doubt start to take an effect on exports and this can slowly start to damage an economy over time. What we may see in the coming month and potentially even years is monetary policies across the globe trying to counter act this problem, we have already seen the Swiss National Bank peg the CHF against the Euro and the Reserve Bank of Australia are seemingly happy to keep cutting interest rates (this generally will weaken a currency).
All in all we are set for an extremely volatlile year and the Pound needs something to start moving through the gears and gaining some strength again and the fact that triple dip recession will now be on the front page of every newspaper certainly will not help!
It is times like these that you need someone proactive on your side if you have a currency transfer to carry out in the near future. I assist clients carrying out transfers amounting from £1000 to mulit million Pound transactions and can help you not only with the timing of your transfer but also by getting you a much better rate of exchange than you can get elsewhere… I have had over 2000 people contact me through this site and at I can count how many I could not save money over their current provider on two hands.
If you find my information of use then please do feel free to contact me directly, you can email me djw@currencies.co.uk, fill in the enquiry form on this page or call us on the numbers above during office hours. If you would like regular updates on currency then also feel free to join our mailing list. We look forward to hearing from you!
GBPEUR and GBPUSD updates, what is the exchange rate (Steve Eakins)
Cable prices (GBPUSD) have remained fairly flat over the last few trading sessions but expect some movement over the next 36 hours. The reason behind this is that there is a big expectation that the FED will announces additional Quantitative Easing into the US economy at their next meeting tomorrow. In my opinion it is almost certain that FED will announce that they will once again start to buy Treasuries outright, which is a different program compared to Operation Twist which ends later this month. The figures are scary, the next round is expected to be $45 billion which will make the total spent by the US in these programs to $4 trillion.
So what will happen to the USD?
Well due to this announcement being wildly expected I would expect little change in rates in the run up to the meeting. In fact if they come out as expected I would not expect much change after. However the risk is that if they release a different figure this will be priced into the market very quickly, moving rates within a few minutes. It is this movement that puts everything from house purchases to services costs at risk of costing thousands more. I am not a risk taker personally so if I was in the markets at the moment I would limit my exposure using a limit or stop loss order. This puts in automatic buying orders if the rates move to a target that you set and as a result limit your exposure in the market. Generally if I was a dollar buyer anything towards 1.61 would be a buy, if I was a seller, anything towards 1.60 would be a sell.
If you would like more information specific to your situation feel free to contact us, we can put together a personal strategy for you dependant on your risk appetite and time frames. PLUS we have won a number of awards for both our service and our rates of exchange so you can feel comfortable that we will be saving you money on the exchange. Simply put if this was not the case we would not be in business.
EURO news
In Europe the main news has been coming out of Italy over the last 48 hours. Speculation built and was then confirmed by the government that the Italian Prime Minister will resign following the 2013 budget next year. This weakened the market as he has been seen as a bright light and bit of a savour for what was a struggling country close to leaving the euro earlier this year. This is all before more data from Germany which is a survey of investor confidence, its forecasted to show a negative figure for a seventh-month in a row. All very important before their next meeting on Wed-Thur when we will hear more from them about growth forecasts and concerns that European interest rates could fall early next year.
All very concerning for the strength of the Euro that had been forecasted to strengthen in the run up to Christmas, this has now changed with a majority of investors expecting it to fall in the run up to 2013. So buyers keep riding and sellers move quickly would be my general thought. Of course timing a trade can make a big difference in itself. Yesterday rates moved by over 0.5% so timing only yesterday to sell €200,000 could have given you an extra £800. Here we can be your eyes and ears on the market providing a proactive service. These blogs have the aim to be informative and forward looking for your information but if you are looking to trade currency in the currency market and want to achieve the best price we can be a lot more useful. Contact us on the normal number or via email at hse@currencies.co.uk for more information.
I hope this continues to help you.
Thanks,
Steve Eakins
Elite trader
GBPEUR rates continue to fall (Steve Eakins)
Even though the range of the markets is very small, (relating to the difference between the high and low each day,) the trend for GBPEUR exchange rates have been negative over the last few weeks. In fact buying euros is now close to the most expensive time for over 6 weeks. The reason why is simple, even though the Eurozone is in a very bad way, economic data is showing an improving picture. It is down to this reason and a consensus that Greece debt buy-back programs makes the Eurozone as a whole more secure from breaking down.
Unfortunately this trend is likely to continue this week. The busiest day this week is Thursday when we have Interest rate decisions from Europe and the UK, Eurozone GDP figures and the Autumn budget statement in the UK. EACH of these have the potential to surprise the market and move could move markets by over 1% costing anything from a property purchase to an invoice in Europe potentially £2,250 on a €200,000 purchase.
What is expected to happen is interest rates to stay the same both in Europe and the UK, both central banks rarely want to make any change in the run up to the festive period. The Autumn budget will probably be leaked beforehand so will be priced in making the event a none-event really. The only thing which is currently expected to change the markets is the release of European GDP figures, this is expected to improve slightly, helping euro sellers. However again euro buyers could find themselves in a worse position at the end of the week compared to the start.
If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to make sure you have the best price contact us to check. We offer a free service with no hidden commission that saves our clients’ money. Simply put if that was not the case we would not be in business. So to experience why we have won a number of awards for our service and exchange rates please either contact us on the normal number or via email at hse@currencies.co.uk
Thank you,
Steve Eakins
Elite trader
Will the data this week lead to a better performance for the Pound? Much depends on GDP figures due on Thursday (Daniel Wright)
The U.K has seen some fairly good data releases over the past week or so however the Pound has struggled to gain any major ground against the majority of currencies asides from the continuing charge against the South African Rand which is still taking quite a battering.
For those with an interest in Canadian Dollars it is the Canadian interest rate decision this afternoon so be aware we may see some volatility there is any surprises are thrown up.
Tonight we have some inflation data for Australia (Australian data has not been great of late) and then we lead on to tomorrow which has the potential to be a market mover for the Euro, Dollar, Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.
Head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi is off to Germany which may throw up a few comments and i’m sure investors will be hanging off every word. The Bank of Canada will release their monetary policy report which again has the potential to lead to a shift for the Canadian Dollar depending on what is detailed in it.
Tomorrow evening the Federal Reserve are expected to input QE3 at their interest rate decision however this is widely expected so I would not expect to see huge movements for the Dollar unless they decide to come up with any new fiscal policies.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and monetary policy statement happens tomorrow night so if you have an interest in NZD then make sure you have protection in place for vast movements overnight – No change in rates is expected but then and again most analysts didn’t expect Australia to cut rates last time around!
The main talking point this week for Sterling followers in my mind will be Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures released on Thursday morning at 09:30am expectations are for 0.6% growth for the U.K economy which would lead to us technically being out of a recession (at last) and should hopefully provide a minor boost to Sterling. Of course there is a chance this may be worse than expected and this may dent Sterling fairly heavily but personally I get a good feeling about the release this time around.
Here we have been helping people move funds internationally for over 12 years. You can open an account in a few minutes and have traded normally within 20 minutes. So if you are reading this with interest or want to compare your exchange rates from your current provider to make sure you are getting the very best rates of exchange please contact us today for a live comparison. You can email me (Daniel Wright) the owner of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will personally get back to you.
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