Tag Archives: greek
Sterling report and forecast – “If Greece gets the green light the Euro may start moving through the gears and driving forward once again” (Daniel Wright)
An extremely important week ahead for Europe and indeed the Euro as European leaders meet once again today to try and get a resolution on the next bout of Greek aid. Looking back at what has happened when we have seen the Europeans come to a conclusion on pending decisions like this previously you tend to see the Euro strengthen as confidence in the Eurozone once again rises.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel seemed confident that this would be agreed in the coming few days saying “There’s no time to waste in finding a solution for Greece. a plan is being intensively worked on,” she said. With little data out today for the U.K and indeed the Eurozone the key for today will be progression with the almost certain agreement being announced. Personally I would not be surprised to see further Euro strength so if you have a transfer involving buying Euros to carry out it may be prudent to contact your account manager this morning on 01494 725353.
We have a similar situation with this pairing however the focus for the States at present is the on-going issue with the Fiscal Cliff. Personally I feel this will get resolved however it will no doubt be at the eleventh hour so I would expect Dollar weakness leading up to the deadline and then a solid USD fight back should a positive outcome be announced.
GDP figures due out for both the U.K on Wednesday and the States on Thursday, along with a considerable amount of economic data for the U.S from Wednesday onwards could lead to a volatile end to the week. If you are looking to buy USD then let us be the eyes and ears on the market for you, click here and one of our experienced and knowledgeable traders will call you back.
There are still plenty of problems for South Africa and I personally feel there will be lots to come in the next few weeks. Interest rates were kept on hold last week but the door is open for us to see an interest rate cut for South Africa in the near future. Recent strikes have led to manufacturing production figures absolutely plummeting and this certainly doesn’t seem to be the end of what could be huge problems for the ZAR which personally I feel may lead to the Rand being extremely volatile and indeed the Pound gaining further ground this week.
A quiet week for Australia and New Zealand on the economic data front however attitude to risk will play a big part in where these pairings will head this week. Should the Greek aid go ahead you would imagine currencies such as the AUD and NZD would strengthen as investors will be more inclined to take on riskier currencies. Global attitude to risk is sure to be key in the coming months with Greece, Spain and the Fiscal cliff being the main drivers for this.
Important Economic data out over the next few days
Today European ECOFIN meeting – As mentioned this could be key for the next tranche of Greek aid, investors will be keeping a close eye on progress throughout the day.
Tomorrow (AM) U.K GDP data – This latest set of figures is out tomorrow morning and the market isn’t expecting much of a shock however you should be wary that the market is there to surprise us.
Tomorrow (PM) A flurry of data for the States tomorrow afternoon with the pick of the bunch being housing data, Consumer Confidence and Federal Reserve’s Ben Bernanke, speaking at 13:30pm.
Wednesday (AM) First thing Wednesday morning we have the release of Swiss GDP data so this with an interest in the Swiss Franc may wish to have either a limit order or stop loss in place for this as it is released at 06:45am.
Thursday (PM) We see the release of U.S GDP on Thursday afternoon, this could easily effect all major currencies so be prepared for a volatile afternoon no matter what currency pairing you are interested in.
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Euro remains stable as markets await Coalition news – Reserve Bank of Australia minutes show rate decision finely balanced and Bank of England minutes tomorrow are key for the Pound
As I had predicted in my post on Friday the Greek elections, although built up to be a huge thing for the currency markets actually didn’t lead to much change at all, it will still be indeed the coming days and weeks that will be the important part and will decide where the Euro is the head next… Once again it seems like the market is now range bound awaiting the next big push.
Assuming we still have no further news from the Greeks then the big news for Sterling Euro will be the Bank of England minutes out tomorrow morning at 09:30am. CPI data this morning is the pick of the data for the U.K today at 09:30am which may give the Pound a short term boost if it comes out that little bit higher than expected but I doubt it will be making too much of an impact on a market which just appears to have all traders eyes on our Greek friends. The Bank of England minutes will be an overview of what was said at the last BOE interest rate decision and any nod to Quantitative Easing may lead to the Pound weakining, however we did see a new stimulus package put in place last week so I don’t expect major fireworks.
The RBA overnight released their meeting minutes and it suggested that it was a close decision to cut interest rates in Australia last month which suggests the RBA may hold fire on another cut at the next rate decision. Intrerest rate cuts are usually seen as negative for the currency concerned and a hike in rates seen as positive, so the fact they may hold off may lead to the AUD gaining back some strength in the short term. The fact that the Greek scenario is now looking slightly more positive (however nowhere near fixed) may also strangthen currencies such as the AUD, NZD, ZAR and CAD.
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What can you expect this weekend with the Greek elections? Personally I feel we may not see the volatility many expect now – But we may well do in the coming weeks! Greek election effect on the currency market
I have had hundreds of calls from my regular clients in the past few weeks in panic about the pending elections and quite frankly this is unprecedented therefor it is extremely hard to know just what state or position the currency market will be in following the weekend elections.
Any of the following may happen:
The Anti Austerity party win, the Euro weakens as it suggests Greece may leave the Euro and the Dollar gains strength. Riskier currencies such as AUD, NZD and ZAR lose strength as global economic concerns are high.
The Anti austerity party win, the Euro strengthens as it is seen as one of the bad parts of the apple that may be due to be cut out. The Dollar weaknes and the riskier currencies strengthen.
The Pro austerity party wins the Euro strengthens the Dollar weakens and riskier currencies gain strength as it would suggest Greece may be willing to carry on with their austerity measures and although potentially this could easily change a little further down the line it may look like Greece will stay in the Euro for the time being.
Either side wins, the markets are a little jumpy but we don’t see any major movements – personally I think this is the most likely, the key for me will be what we actually see come out in the days following the elections… What comments are made and which actions are put in place, this will be the real bread and butter information for investors and this will be the key to where the markets may head in my opinion.
Of course anything can happen so do not take my work for it. and there is no doubt we are about to engage in one very rocky ride, I hope whichever way you need the currency markets to move for you they head in the right direction and I will try and come back to you all with updates throughout Sunday evening.. I am however away for the weekend so no promises!
If you have a currency transaction to carry out next week or in the next few months or carry out regular transfers and you want to have an experienced currency broker on your side then I can help you both in terms of getting you the best rate of exchange when you do carry out your transfer alongside helping you make the decision as to when to book out a rate of exchange which may save you a huge amount of money too. Email me directly firstname.lastname@example.org with a brief description of what you need to do and a contact number and I shall be happy to get in touch with you personally.
Greek elections will be the talking point for the coming week or so… and it is indeed tight! GBP USD AUD EUR NZD ZAR
Those with an upcoming currency interest may wish to keep a close eye on polls leading up to the elections, over the weekend it appears that the New Democracy party is just edging things as it stands, however I expect to see this shift numerous times in the lead up to the elections and I expect the markets to be very jittery in the next few weeks as well.
Whenever the Anti Austrerity party sticks their neck in front I would not be surprised to see the riskier currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR become a little cheaper to buy and I would imagine the Dollar should strengthen too as it tends to when there are global concerns and slowing attitude to risk.
Should the New Democracy party look like they may potentially win then we may see quite the opposite, along with a little strength for the Euro.
Personally, if you have transfers to carry out I don’t feel this is a market to mess around with unless you are a serious gambler as absolutely anything can happen… Friday nights tend to be the big negative release time for Europe and you could have a weekend spoilt very easily should you be looking to sell Euros and another Spanish bank announcement comes in while the markets are closed and there is nothing you can do about it.
Regarding the Australian Dollar – The RBA Governor Stevens has mentioned overnight that we will more than likely see further rate cuts and that the Chinese slowdown is concern, however the rate cuts appear to already be priced in and it will take a while for China to really start to affect the AUD too badly. Feel free to take a look at one of our sister sites www.australiandollarforecast.com if you have a keen interest in the AUD as this is regularly updated purely with a focus on the Australian Dollar.
If you have a transfer to make and want to get the very best level of exchange (potentially saving £1000s) then feel free to contact me directly by emailing me email@example.com and I will not only assist you in rates but also with a very high level of customer service too, if you already use a broker then why not take 2 minutes to get a comparison just to ensure you really are getting the best deal.
Well, it appears that the Greek PM has finally stepped down this morning after what can only be described as a embarrassing week in charge and we now eagerly await what happens next in this saga. The Greek Government are due to agree on the name of a new Prime Minister to lead a unity Government until fresh polls have been held, what is this now going to mean for the Euro?
This can be seen as good news (albeit minor) for the Euro however much now depends on how smoothly and swiftly the next stage takes place and whether it is satisfactory enough to still warrent Greece being helped out with the funds they so desperatly need… this week is going to no doubt throw up a lot of surprises for the Euro and indeed some great buying and selling opportunities shall arise – the key is being in a position to be able to take advantage of them.
The general feeling is that once things are resolved that the Euro could see strength again as the uncertainty is once again placed on hold until the next crisis pops up – however in my opinion this will only be short term as I will eat my hat if we do not see another crisis pop up, the whole European problem is not something that is going to go away with one resolution and we are assured of some terribly rocky markets along the way.
This is where a limit order comes in handy, set you target rate and if it gets achieved your currency is bought out automatically, there is no cost for this service at all, and you can cancel or amend the order at any point should you so wish. Contact me directly today firstname.lastname@example.org should you wish to have further information on this matter or need to carry out a currency transfer at some point now or in the near future.
Today sees the release of the European Central Bank interest rate decision – New head of the ECB (not jealous of his new job) Mario Draghi has quite a decision on his hands. There have been calls for an interest rate cut in the Eurozone however will he be willing to enter his new position with a bang or will he be looking to get his feet under the table before any big decisions are made?
Personally I feel we have about a 30% chance of him doing so, which should lead to the Euro getting even weaker – however that other 70% option could easily end up with the Euro gaining back some strength as investors may have already speculated that there may be a minor cut.
We still have the continuing Greek crisis which will no doubt still be unfolding and still lead to swings upon releases throughout the day so you certainly cannot rule out a spanner in the works there!
Markets are indeed all over the place at present and it is key you have an experienced currency broker on your side when dealing with any large currency transactions as i’m afraid hope will not move the markets. I am happy to deal with any regular readers that have bank to bank transfers of anything from £5000 up to multi million pound transactions for corporate clients. I can be your eyes and ears on the market and help you develpop a strategy that may save you £1000s.
I cannot directly advise you but it is certainly worth having assistance and a personal opinion of someone that has been in the market for years. If you would like to join our 41,000 satisfied clients then please open a free, no obligation trading facility by clicking here and I will be more than happy to personally give you a call to discuss your requirements. Please ensure you place my name (Daniel Wright) as your point of contact.
Wow, what a day on the markets so far and one hell of an interesting week ahead!
If you are looking to buy Euros at present then you need to thank the Greeks for making that purchase overseas much cheaper in the last 24 hours. It has been nothing short of madness the way they have been messing around and it has certainly not done the Euro any good as uncertainty once again looms over an already jittery currency market.
Couple that with the fact that the Japanese devalued their currency in the early hours of Monday and it is plain to see a lot of money has been made and indeed lost in the past 48 hours.
Personally, I think that the rates may have a little further to go up however the pattern of the year is Sterling taking a few steps forward and then getting knocked straight back down again so you need to be really wary and be prepared to take advantage of the great gains we have already seen.
Nobody appears to know where to stick their money… the Swiss and Japanese are devaluing the currency, the Eurozone is in all kinds of trouble, the U.S aren’t exactly in great form but the U.K is slowly becoming an option for the perceived ‘safer haven’ as we still have our AAA credit rating at present and GDP figures actually came out better than expected today!
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An Interesting interview from another FX site, here is part of it, feel free to click on the link below to see the rest of it.
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What do you think about the idea that the Greece/Eurozone problem is smelling like Lehman Brother in 2008 summer?
There is little doubt that a Greece default would trigger a global financial downturn similar to the effect of Lehman’s collapse. The Greece crisis will likely have more dire consequences. Greece has over €340 billion in bonds outstanding while Lehman had $100 billion. Although Lehman did have a substantial amount of derivatives outstanding, they hedged their positions, a benefit that evades Greece. When Lehman went down, despite its effects being felt at many banks, it did not take those banks down with them. In Europe, the contagion risk is far greater. Greece represents a very small portion of the Euro zone economy. The monetary loss other governments and banks would face due to exposure in Greek bonds, while large, would be manageable. It is the fear of other debt-ridden Euro members (PIIGS) following suit that would set off an irreversible catastrophe.
Good morning all,
I thought regular readers and those with a keen interest in the Euro would find this interesting http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13838819 Feel free to get in touch should you wish to achieve fantastic rates of exchange as and when you do have a currency requirement..
Sterling, Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc…. The story so far weakness and strength, what will happen going forward? Will Greece exit the Euro?
Just a handful of questions I have been asked over the past few days and my word aren’t we seeing a lot of activity at present since I have been away.
The Greeks bell has rung and they are out for round two, an interest rate hike in the U.K has seemingly sailed off into the distance and the Swiss Franc is stronger than Popeye on spinach.
Personally, I cannot see the Pound gaining too much ground against the majority in the near term, unless the Bank of England minutes released this Wednesday throw a spanner in the works… An interest rate hike (or the mere mention of it) can really strengthen a currency as it makes it more attractive to investors.
The fact that the Bank Of England keep on pushing back the possibility of the U.K raising their rates really is denting and holding back Sterling, so keep a keen eye on these on Wednesday morning to see the next twist in the story for the Pound.
Meanwhile, in Europe the Greek debt crisis came to a head once more, and I stuggle to understand how this whole situation has been patched up and patched up no end of times by the ECB…. Surely it is only a matter of time before something that smells hits the fan and we see the Euro Zone and indeed the Euro take quite a hit, as I only see this problem (not just Greece but numerous economies) getting worse and worse, and the European Central Bank are burying their heads in the sand…. However, for the past few years I have been saying this and they keep on battingt their problems away, so those holding out for better rates against the Euro could well still be waiting until next year
The Swiss Franc and Australian Dollar are still strong as ever, I have had dozens of clients sending funds over to their Australian accounts to take advantage of a 6-7% interest rate and I can’t say I blame them looking at my savings accounts interest over here, and the Swiss Franc appears to be the safe haven and currency of choice for investors worldwide, how long this will continue depends on risk, interest rates and global turmoil.
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