Tag Archives: interest

Sterling weakness up ahead? Why now is a good time to buy the pound

Jonathan Watson

Jonathan Watson

Currently sterling is well supported largely due to the strong likelihood of the UK raising interest rates next year. Investors are taking up positions on sterling in anticipation of better returns in the future. 80% of currency transactions are speculative and whilst this is not a topic we deal in for clients , it is a topic that is extremely relevant in determining future market movements for our clients.

Longer term sterling appears bound to increase significantly as the prospect of ultra low interest rates becomes the past. The pound has been flirting with 5 year highs on a trade weighted basis which when you consider interest rates have been at rock bottom for 5 years makes sense.

Since we won’t actually see any actual hike for some time there is certainly a good chance of more GBP weakness but it will be in pockets and not reflective of a greater downward trend. If you are going to need to purchase the pound in the future moving sooner is I believe the best course of action. Please contact me directly for assistance in sourcing the best rates and the optimum peaks to trade on. I assure you of being able to beat the banks and currency brokerages.

Many of my clients selling say Euros and Dollars after a property sale are quibbling over the fact they are trading at multi year lows. I wholly sympathise with these clients because when you do the calculation on the losses selling six figure sums in the last year they are substantial. But if you look further back say at the 10 year and 5 year figures you will see current rates are not so bad.

Take Mr Smith in France for example, who may have purchased there when rates were say 1.50. Imagine buying a 200,000 Euro property at 1.50. This would have cost you 133333.33 GBP. Fast forward ten years and unfortunately he has had to sell to come back to the UK and had to take a hit on the price. He had to sell for 175,000 Euros and was not happy at having lost 25,000 on the price. However he managed to get 1.20 on the rate which means his 175,000 Euros are actually worth 145833.33 GBP. Suddenly it is not such a bad deal and when he considers all the fun times he had there, the whole experience has actually not been too bad!

This just shows the importance of exchange rates when considering overseas transactions. Sterling is at a very good level now which may yet improve. Understanding what is driving exchange rates is critical to getting the best deal. For more information on the forecast for your particular situation please don’t hesitate to contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Are you ready for the emerging market sell off!

Jonathan Watson

Jonathan Watson

There has been much background speculation for years about a mass market sell off on ‘riskier’ assets and finally it looks like the dam has burst it banks. Make sure you don’t get caught in the flood! 

Often on exchange rates clear trends and patterns are difficult. Every now and again something creeps up however which is plain to see. And the current trends on the pound versus a whole host of what we term ‘riskier’ currencies is playing out as expected and may yet deteriorate further. Here is a list of the key currencies which I think will be affected:

 - South African Rand, Turkish Lira, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar

Why are they in trouble?

Global events have construed to put these currencies in a very tricky position. They have all been historically very strong against sterling due to improvements in their economies as a result of either strong demand for their natural resources (Australia, South Africa, Canada) or large scale overseas investment into the country (Turkey). Much of this money has been as a result of the QE (Quantitative Easing) programmes advocated by the United States and to a lesser extent the UK. All this extra money has had to go somewhere and so it has into stocks and other areas which offer a generous return.

The money is now being withdrawn and it is weakening these currencies. So long as the UK economy keeps improving (which is a very strong likelihood) and China slows down (which it is) this situation is likely to persist and deteriorate.

If you have any overseas interests to eventually return to pound sterling now is a very good time to weigh up your options. And it is not just these currencies which are in the firing line. Sterling is gaining against all currencies up at multi year highs against both the US dollar and the Euro. As the pound increases in value and we return to more normal exchange rates (from say 5 – 10 years ago) it will become much more expensive to buy pounds in the future.

We offer an option to ‘fix’ an exchange rate up to a year in advance which means if you know you will need to bring back funds in the future you can book the rate in now so you know exactly what you will get. This is very useful for anyone who is selling a property overseas as it means they know exactly what the sterling value of their property will be once the funds become available.

If you are interested to learn more I would be very happy to have a chat with you about your personal situation. Please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with Jonathan.

Pound Sterling exchange rates steady ahead of key interest rate decisions due out tomorrow

Sterling exchange rates have remained reasonably steady in trading today as we await a number of key economic data releases towards the end of this week.

The one big mover was once again against the Australian Dollar where once again we saw comments overnight from the RBA (Reserve bank of Australia) that the strong Australian Dollar was still a problem for the Australian economy opening the door for some type of weakening in the coming months. markets do move on speculation as well as fact and this led to the GBP-AUD rate going over 1.80 for the first time in two and a half years.

Tomorrow we have the interest rate decisions from both the U.K and Eurozone and although no major rate movements are expected, any comments from the BOE (Bank of England) or ECB ( European Central bank will be jumped on immediately which may lead to a volatile Sterling Euro rate in trading tomorrow.

The main market mover will be the press conference at 13:30pm from the European Central bank assuming no surprises crop up in the earlier rate decisions.

Investors hang off of every word that comes out of Head of the European Central Bank’s mouth so if you have a pending currency transfer to carry out involving wither buying or selling the Euro it may be prudent to keep a very close eye on exchange rates at that point.

If you are looking to exchange foreign currency in the near future involving either buying or selling the Pound against any major currency then it is well worth getting in touch with me directly. Not only can I keep you up to date with the very latest market movements but when it comes to buying your currency I can also help you get the very best rate of exchange.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on  djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally.

Wrap that transfer up like a neat gift

GBPZAR 5 year high, GBPAUD and GBPCAD 4 year highs, GBPUSD at 2 1/2 year high and GBPEUR over 1.20… 

Sterling is at truly exceptional levels against most currencies as the UK’s recovery rakes hold and the UK sets itself apart from other leading economies by appearing to be likely to be one of the first leading economies to be raising interest rates. Whilst the United States are debating when to stop QE, the UK have not done any QE for the last year. The ECB are looking at possibly negative interest rates and the Bank of Canada is no longer looking to tighten policy. Overnight we learnt that GDP in Australia was weaker than expected, again a sign of another leading economy weakening whilst the UK has been performing well.

With the often crazy Christmas period fast approaching and changes in banking days there is a lot to be said for wrapping up a transfer like a present. The recent spike on exchanges rates has been a great gift to you and now could be an excellent time to either buy your currency or lock into a forward contract to minimise any losses. You can then remove the stress of the transfer and focus on the more important things at this time of year!

If you have a pending transfer we offer a specialist service to assist you in securing the most from the market. For more information at no cost or obligation please do feel free to get in touch. I am a specialist currency broker and my job is to assist private clients and businesses in managing their exposure to the currency markets, ensuring payments are made quickly and safely at the very best rates.

Please feel free to contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call +44 1494 787 478 and ask to speak to me.

Sterling makes minor gains against the Australian Dollar following RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) comments

Late night news from Australia confirmed no interest rate change at the latest interest rate decision however comments from the Governor did mention that a strong Australian Dollar is a concern for the Australian economy going forward.

This has led to around half a cent gain for the Pound against the Australian Dollar and does open up the potential for possible interest rate cuts further down the line in Australia.

There is little data out over the course of Tuesday of great note although we do have economic forecasts from Europe and a little data out from the states in afternoon trading.

Personally  unless there are any great surprises that crop up on the market I would expect to day to stay fairly range bound however as always in the current economic climate absolutely anything may happen.

If you have a pending currency transaction to carry out and you would like me to personally monitor the market for you then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help you.

Will this sterling rally continue? More often than not it is the greedy who get their fingers burnt… GBPEUR, GBPCAD 1 month high, GBPUSD 2 month high, GBPAUD close to 3 yr high, make sure you do not miss out!

The pound has had one of the most impressive spikes in the last week. Ever since Mark Carney tied the raising of interest rates to Unemployment traders have been backing sterling as they anticipate an interest hike in the none too distant future. This is however at odds with what the Bank itself has said and whilst there is definitely scope for further improvements on sterling exchange rates, I do expect them to fall back at some point too. We have been here so many times in the last few years and whilst the data is definitely better, the key issues of public and government debt have not been addressed. Many are questioning the sustainability of the recent good news attributing the ‘improvements’ in the economy (house prices and consumer spending) to further debt fueled growth measures which will ultimately come back to bite…

However you view the current pick up, there is no denying the improvements on the exchange rates. GBPEUR and GBPCAD are at 1 month highs, GBPUSD is a 2 month high and GBPAUD is close to a 3 yr high. Rates on GBPNZD,GBPZAR and many others are all up at some the best levels in recent years and are significant improvements on rates of a few months ago. If you are weighing up a currency exchange and wish to be kept up to speed on where your pairing is headed so you don’t miss out, please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

If you are considering selling the pound to buy a foreign currency in the coming weeks I strongly suggest you take stock of current levels to avoid disappointment. That is not to say you should enter the market right now (although that may well prove to be the best course of action) but that I would not expect the rally of late to continue too much longer. (For a proper discussion of your situation please contact me personally).

The currency markets are moving literally every second and daily swings can be well over one cent, sometimes two. This may not sound like much but on larger volumes of currency of say one or two hundred thousand pounds it makes a huge difference. Buying €250,000 with pounds last Wednesday would have cost £218340.61. That same purchase of €250,000 today would cost £212765.96, a £5500 saving!

When buying currency there are a huge range of options and different prices available which on those larger sums can save or lose you thousands. As a specialist currency broker for the UK’s largest independent brokerage we offer a specialist service to assist you in the safe, speedy transmission of money internationally at commercial exchange rates significantly better than those available through typical bank transactions.

If you would like to discuss the market and all of the options available you can speak with me Jonathan by either calling 01494 787 478 or if you prefer just email jmw@currencies.co.uk and we can go from there.

Pound Sterling Forecast – Buying euros – Selling euros – When is the best time to buy this week? (Steve Eakins)

Sterling exchange rates stayed relatively unchanged on Monday as there was little economic data to drive prices.  This will however change towards the end of the week as we start the new month.  (Economic data traditionally reports on the previous months activity and as a result is usually released at the beginning of the month.) Later this week we have the Interest Rate Decision and Asset buying Program (QE), updates from both the USA, UK and Europe. Meaning that there is a high possibility of some large movements in the currency market.

So what is expected from interest rate decisions this week, when do I trade?

USA – Wednesday evening 19:00 BST

Well as Ben Bernanke comes to the end of his term as the head of the Federal Reserve we expect some looser tongues in a similar way that Mervyn King spoke out against the UK program to support first time buyers last month when he was leaving.  This will probably be with regards to the “tapering” of their asset buying program which has been one of the largest contributors to the change in the value of the US Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, South African Rand.  I personally expect more press on this topic, probably adding to the speculation that tapering will happen in the near future.  This will in turn probably weaken those currencies involved and may help people buying Southern Hemisphere currencies get towards a month high trading level.

UK – Thursday midday 12:00 BST

It is all about “forward Guidance” on the topic of Asset buying i.e. QE.  There is significant speculation that we could have a forward commentary on potential change from the bank which will be priced into the market very quickly.  This topic has been the driving force of significant change in the past few years with CENTS being taken away on occasions when QE has been announced.  This as a result is the opportunity for STERLING buyers.  Sterling sellers, i.e. Euro Buyers, Dollar Buyers and really anyone selling Sterling should be limited exposure and making sure exposure is minimised as without this you could lose significant on Thursday at midday

Europe – Thursday 12:45 BST

In Europe the topic of conversation has been with regards to European Growth as usual however little is expected as Europe normally slows down in August as many take the month of as a summer break. As a result I expect nothing significant to be released and as a result no swings at that time.  The outside change event is the press conference that follows the release in the afternoon, this could include commentary with regards to unemployment which could spark some change.

If you do have an upcoming currency requirement and would like a comparative exchange rate against your current provider, or would like to be kept up to date with all the relevant market movements then please call one of our brokers today on 0044 1494 787 478, or you can email me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk

Thank you,

Steve Eakins

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Sterling bounces back but will it last? Next week’s Bank of England Minutes could be a shock!

So as ‘forecast’ Mark Carney caused GBP weakness, catching out all those holding on for GBP strength. The present market is not one to be complacent in and anyone who is selling GBP to buy another currency should beware it is highly unlikely the pound is going to get a big boost in the short term. That is not to say it is going to crash, the generally better than expected data all round is preventing this, but it looks like the pound will remain on the back foot.

I for one would highlight the Bank of England Minutes next week as a possible trigger for both GBP buyers and sellers. Has Mark Carney voted for more QE like his predecessor Mervyn King? The guidance issued by the Bank highlighted the rise in gilts on expectations of higher UK interest rates were misplaced. The sell off of Gilts hurt the pound as to buy Gilts you must buy GBP. There is a chance the pound could actually rise as the voting pattern for QE would change if Mark Carney doesn’t vote for QE.

All in all next Wednesday is shaping up to be a fairly interesting day. Last Thursday the pound bombed against most currencies in seconds once the data came out, only to recover within minutes. Getting the best exchange rate is achieved through timing and information. Here at www.poundsterlingforecast.com we are currency traders assisting both private and corporate clients with their deals.

We can offer an extremely sharp commercial rate plus all the information on when to enter the market. For further information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling exchange rates – The week ahead and what is forecast? (Daniel Wright)

The U.K and indeed the Pound have started the week off on the right note with extremely positive manufacturing and mortgage approval figures being released early this morning leading to a little boost to the Pound in trading today.

We have a fairly busy week ahead for Sterling exchange rates as we still have house price data, construction data, services data and the first interest rate decision under new Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney.

There has been a lot of speculation of Carney looking to bring in more QE (Quantitative Easing) however we need to remember it is not is sole decision, all the members of the Bank of England vote and the majority rules so personally I do not think we will see any QE this time around which may give the Pound a boost. Those looking to buy foreign currency must be aware though that the markets will also move on any comments so although we may not get QE if there is a big indication it will come at a later date the Pound may still drop.

Most of the other data out this week should give a good heads up as to how our growth figures should be coming out and if the manufacturing data out this morning is anything to go by then the Pound may have a decent week against most major currencies.

If you have an upcoming currency transfer to make involving either buying or selling the Pound whether you are based in the U.K or not then I can help you both in terms of getting a great rate of exchange and a high level of service.

If you would like assistance or merely to compare against your bank or current broker then feel free to email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back to you personally.

Market Sentiment favours Sterling for now… What would Mark Carney do?

A week can be a very long time on the currency markets and this has been a particularly interesting week as the heightened speculation surrounding Federal Reserve ‘tapering’ intensifies. Even if you are not buying or selling USD, the actions of America’s central bank are a major influence on the pound and all other currencies, the major sell off on AUD, NZD and ZAR this week is a prime example.

Uncertainty this week caused a sell off on stock markets and riskier currencies to plummet. GBPNZD broke through 2 and GBPZAR broke through 16! The importance of being ready to act was brought firmly into focus as rates soon tumbled back down. If you missed out on the spikes on these currencies why not let me know on jmw@currencies.co.uk and I will make sure you don’t miss out next time. AUDGBP tested the 0.60 level of resistance which could signal a brief respite for AUD sellers to enter the market. Should we break through 0.60 (1.6667 on GBPAUD) I would expect a further deterioration in the price of the AUD and with it the Kiwi. You have been warned!

Next week we have the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes on Wednesday night UK time. This is one of the most eagerly awaited meetings and will provide further information on Fed tapering. The potential for the sell off of this and last week to continue is quite high if they indicate a tapering expectation. If you are considering a currency exchange, being prepared and utilising our service will be a major advantage. For more information at no cost or obligation, please feel free to contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

How does this affect sterling? Historically sterling is a safe haven and as this week UK Gilts (UK government bonds) were bought it has increased the value of the pound. Next week we have the Bank of England Minutes, did Mervyn King finally succumb to pressure and not vote for QE? I expect the pound could have a good week next week if the BoE Minutes and Fed Minutes support less QE globally.

There is increasing speculation Mark Carney will embark on more QE but I doubt this. The UK economy is of course merely spluttering along but I think the improvements in key areas of the economy warrant a wait and see approach. Construction, Services and Manufacturing have all lately shown encouraging signs of growth and I think it is worth holding on to see if this is sustained. Politically it is dangerous too to adopt such a strong measure in his first meeting in the current environment. Ultimately being prepared is the best way to ensure you don’t miss out. If you are expecting a big fall or rise in the pound why not make us aware and we can watch it for you.

Our many years experience of handling private and corporate client’s foreign exchange requirements gives us the credibility to personally assist you move money internationally at commercial exchange rates better than the banks and other sources. Our personal, friendly and procative service means you can make an informed decision on what may be best. We offer the option to ‘forward buy’ and insert stop and limit orders into the market to ensure you don’t miss out if the market hits your desired rate. Speak to me to find out more! jmw@currencies.co.uk

Thank you,

Jonathan

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