Tag Archives: interest

Sterling has another exceedingly volatile day against Euro, Dollar and all majors – Global markets remain fragile (Daniel Wright)

It has been yet another busy day on the trading floor and we have seen yet another volatile 24 hours for Sterling exchange rates.

Markets around the world appear to be exceedingly nervous at present and there is a little worry that we may have one hell of a storm brewing ahead.

In the past year we have seen issues with the European economy, issues with the Chinese economy, oil prices dropping off, bank share prices plummet and the potential of any interest rate hike for the U.K slowly but surely be kicked further and further down the road so it is no surprise that the markets are acting a little out of the ordinary.

My personal opinion is still that Sterling is a little undervalued however when you do see negative movements like we have witnessed of late then the question does start to arise of how much further can it drop before we see a recovery? We all wish we truly knew the answer to this question as we would make a great deal of money…

The key with these sort of situations if you are due to be making a large exchange is to make sure you protect your position. Many people fall into the trap of thinking that they have to carry out their currency needs in one large chunk, and to time that correctly is almost impossible, along with the fact that you leave yourself extremely exposed.

If you are in the position that you do need to buy or sell a large quantity of currency for your business or indeed for the purchase or sale of a property then it is well worth getting in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly so that I can work together with you to try and maximise your money. I have been assisting clients in this position for nearly 10 years and I have been writing on this site for over 5 years so I am well positioned to not only help you get top commercial rates of exchange but also to ensure you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side at all times.

If you are stuck in a tricky position due to the latest movements and you are finding that you are stuck on your own with nowhere to turn the feel free to get in touch with me directly and I will be more than happy to call you personally. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk or call me on 01494 787 478 during U.K office hours of 08:30am – 18:00pm (please ask for Daniel Wright). You do not need to be based in the U.K for us to be able to help you.

The week ahead for Sterling exchange rates – Economic data of interest and contract types that may assist you (Daniel Wright)

So we have another busy week ahead for Sterling exchange rates including an interest rate decision for Australia tonight, Unemployment data for New Zealand tomorrow night, Bank of England interest rate decision and meeting minutes on Thursday lunchtime followed by Non-Farm Payroll data due out on Friday afternoon.

There is indeed plenty for the market to feel off of this week and I would expect some fairly large swings, especially for the Antipodean currencies (Australian and New Zealand Dollar) overnight early in the week. With the possibility of such large movements overnight it is key that you have protection in place should you be looking to carry out a currency exchange in the near future.

All the writers here at Pound Sterling Forecast work for a currency brokerage with a turnover of over half a billion Pounds a year, which means we have access to fantastic rates of exchange. Even if you feel you are getting a good deal elsewhere at the moment I would be extremely surprised if we couldn’t do better for you. You can email me (Daniel Wright) the creator and main editor of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be happy to contact you personally. You can also call me during U.K office hours on 01494 787 478 (please ensure you ask for Daniel Wright).

We have a number of contract types that can help you during such volatile times including the following:

Forward contract: This is where you can lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to two years in advance with just a small deposit. This is really handy for anyone buying or selling a property overseas that would like to protect some or even all of their funds against currency fluctuations. I see time and time again clients agreeing to purchase a property overseas and putting down a deposit only to find themselves in a tricky situation later down the line when coming to pay for the balance on the property because the rate has dropped so much. For some reason even the most sensible people decide to effectively gamble thousands of Pounds based purely on hope over actually having knowledge that an exchange rate will go their way. djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like more information.

Limit order: If there is a particular rate of exchange you would like to achieve but the market just is not there yet then you can place a limit order into the market. This order is free and can be cancelled or amended at any time you like as long as it has not gone through, but basically means that if at any time 24 hours a day/7 days a week your rate becomes achievable then your currency will be bought out automatically and we will just contact you to let you know the good news. djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like more information.

Stop Loss: This contract type is handy if you are working to a tight budget and cannot afford to go any lower than a particular rate and works in a similar way to the limit order above, yet will trigger should your buying rate hit your chosen lowest possible point. Some clients like to ‘chase the market up’ and raise their stop order on a daily basis when the market is moving in the right direction for them. djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like more information.

I have no doubt this will be a busy week, please do feel free to get in contact with more information on the above or if you have an exchange you with to carry out and you would like to know what rate we can offer you.

GMT Time left Area Currency Event Consensus Previous
09:30 UK GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 51.8 51.9
09:30 UK GBP Consumer Credit (Dec) £1.300B £1.476B
09:30 UK GBP Mortgage Approvals (Dec) 69.60K 70.41K
13:30 US USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 0.4%
13:30 US USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.1% 0.1%
13:30 US USD Personal Income (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% 0.3%
13:30 US USD Personal Spending (Dec) 0.1% 0.3%
13:30 US USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0%
13:30 US USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 1.3%
14:30 CA CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 47.5
14:45 US USD Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 52.7 52.7
15:00 US USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.0 48.2
15:00 US USD ISM Prices Paid (Jan) 34.0 33.5
15:00 US USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Dec) 0.6% -0.4%
16:00 EMU EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech
18:00 US USD Fed’s Stanley Fischer speech
TUESDAY, FEB 02
03:30 AU AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 2% 2%
03:30 AU AUD RBA Rate Statement
08:15 CH CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) -1.3% -3.1%
08:55 DE EUR Unemployment Change (Jan) -7K -14K
08:55 DE EUR Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jan) 6.3% 6.3%
09:00 IT EUR Unemployment (Nov) 11.3% 11.3%
09:30 UK GBP PMI Construction (Jan) 57.6 57.8
10:00 EMU EUR Unemployment Rate (Dec) 10.5% 10.5%
21:30 US USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 11.4M
21:45 NZ NZD Unemployment Rate (Q4) 6.1% 6.0%
21:45 NZ NZD Employment Change (Q4) 0.8% -0.4%
21:45 NZ NZD Participation Rate (Q4) 68.6%
WEDNESDAY, FEB 03
00:00 NZ NZD RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speech
00:30 AU AUD Exports (Dec) 1%
00:30 AU AUD Imports (Dec) -1%
00:30 AU AUD Trade Balance (Dec) -2,500M -2,906M
01:45 CN CNY Caixin China Services PMI (Jan) 50.2
02:30 JP JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech
08:00 EMU EUR Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting
08:15 ES EUR Markit Services PMI (Jan) 54.5 55.1
09:00 EMU EUR Markit PMI Composite (Jan) 53.5 53.5
09:00 EMU EUR Markit Services PMI (Jan) 53.6 53.6
10:00 EMU EUR European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts
13:15 US USD ADP Employment Change (Jan) 195K 257K
14:45 US USD Markit PMI Composite (Jan) 53.7
14:45 US USD Markit Services PMI (Jan) 53.7
15:00 US USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 55.1 55.3
15:30 US USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Jan 29) 8.383M
23:50 JP JPY Foreign bond investment (Jan 29) ¥475.3B
23:50 JP JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Jan 29) ¥-189.2B
THURSDAY, FEB 04
00:30 AU AUD National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q4) 0
06:45 CH CHF SECO Consumer Climate (3m) (Q1) -18
08:00 EMU EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech
09:00 EMU EUR Economic Bulletin
12:00 UK GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb 4) 0.5% 0.5%
12:00 UK GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility (Feb) £375B
12:00 UK GBP Monetary Policy Summary
12:00 UK GBP Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
12:00 UK GBP BOE MPC Vote Unchanged 8 8
12:00 UK GBP BOE MPC Vote Cut 0 0
12:00 UK GBP BOE MPC Vote Hike 1 1
12:00 UK GBP Bank of England Minutes
12:45 UK GBP BOE’s Governor Carney speech
13:30 US USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 29) 278K
15:00 US USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec) -2.6% -0.2%
22:30 AU AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (Jan) 46.8
FRIDAY, FEB 05
00:30 AU AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Dec) 0.5% 0.4%
00:30 AU AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
05:00 JP JPY Coincident Index (Dec 111.9
05:00 JP JPY Leading Economic Index (Dec) 103.5
13:30 US USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) 190K 292K
13:30 US USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Jan) 2.5%
13:30 US USD Unemployment Rate (Jan) 5% 5%
13:30 US USD Labor Force Participation Rate (Jan) 62.6%
13:30 US USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% 0.0%
13:30 US USD Trade Balance (Dec) $-43.0B $-42.4B
13:30 CA CAD Unemployment Rate (Jan) 7.1%
13:30 CA CAD Net Change in Employment (Jan) 22.8K
15:00 CA CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Jan) 42.5
15:00 CA CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (Jan) 50.3 49.9
18:00 US USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 498
20:00 US USD Consumer Credit Change (Dec) $16.00B $13.95B

I have no doubt this will be a busy week, please do feel free to get in contact with more information on the above or if you have an exchange you with to carry out and you would like to know what rate we can offer you. You can call me on our trading floor 01494 787 478 or email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to assisting you.

 

Pound Sterling exchange rates rise along with inflation figures – Rate hike edging closer? (Daniel Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have had a good day against all major currencies during trading today following following news that inflation year on year was now sat at 0.1% which was slightly higher than market expectations of inflation remaining at 0%.

This has now led to money in the city being piled on interest rate hikes for the U.K potentially being a little sooner than had been thought 24 hours ago. We would indeed need to see average earnings and unemployment figures for the U.K show an improvement over the coming months for this to really become a reality but should this happen then Sterling may be in for a good run of form.

i think the key in a situation such as this is to hedge your bets and protect yourself from any adverse market movements, as regular readers will be more than aware when Sterling does tend to look buoyant, more often than not something seems to come out to knock it straight back down again.

If you have a pending currency exchange to carry out then I would suggest splitting your requirement into chunks rather than leaving the full sum exposed. A lot of people do fall into the trap that they have (as an example £200,000) to exchange so they need to time booking it out perfectly. By splitting into two lots of £100k or even four tranches of £50k and doing it over a period of weeks or months, depending on how long you have to wait you can eliminate some of the risk whilst still leaving a healthy sum to take advantage of it all with.

If you need to carry out a currency exchange for a personal property transaction or a corporate exchange for your company then I can help you both in terms of getting not only the very top level of exchange rates but a smooth and efficient level of service too. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk letting me know exactly what your requirement is and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Commodity currencies have been extremely volatile since the devaluation of the Yuan over three consecutive days of trading last week. The lowered value of the Yuan points to decreased confidence in an economy which represents one sixth of the world’s population. As a result this is lowering forecasts for future global demand for commodities, which has hit currencies like the CAD, and AUD hardest. For more information and examples on how these currencies are expected to perform over the next few months and predictions on how they will weather the storm click here.

 

Pound may surge in trading tomorrow morning if BOE minutes give a nod towards a rate hike (Daniel Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have the potential to creep up over the course of trading tomorrow morning as we have both the Bank of England minutes and the inflation report.

Interestingly enough the BOE are due to change the amount of meetings they have from 12 to 8 which I found out yesterday.

The key really will be how many members of the BOE voted in favour of an interest rate hike, should we have even one more member now in favour of a hike in rates then Sterling may rise off of the back of it as an interest rate hike is generally seen as extremely positive for the currency concerned.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out either now or in the future then it is well worth getting in touch with me personally. I can help you not only get a great rate of exchange but also with the timing of your transaction. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally to speak to you.

Sterling Euro creeps down from 1.40 – Market poised on Federal Reserve decision tomorrow and RBA minutes confirm future interest rate cut is probable (Daniel Wright)

An interesting day on the currency markets for Sterling, seeing the rate come down from 1.40 against the Euro, finished the day in the mid 1.47s against the Dollar and ended close to 1.94 against the Australian Dollar.

Earlier this morning European inflation figures were one of the main drivers for a little Euro strength which has been an extremely rare occurrence over the past few weeks. This gave those looking to sell Euros a brief opportunity to achieve a slightly better price and showed again just how important it is to buy on spikes when they occur and not to get greedy and miss out.

There is every chance we may see the rate push back through 1.40 but it is key to remember that if you are buying Euros then you are almost already a whopping 10% up on the rate at the turn of the year so if you are in the process of buying a property overseas with Euros it may be prudent to at least lock in a portion of your funds as there are still plenty of issues that could bring the rate back down… One being the election.

If you are looking to buy or indeed sell Euros in the near future and you would like my assistance and to get not only award winning exchange rates but a high level of customer service then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Anyone in the position of selling Dollars will be pleased with the last few weeks movements as we saw the rate burst through the 1.50 mark for the first time in a few years. Tomorrow we have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and monetary policy statement which will be a key indicator as to when the Fed may look to raise interest rates and could lead to quite a volatile evening for the Dollar.

For Australian Dollar followers the RBA commented last night in their latest meeting minutes that they would cut interest rates if they needed to in the future which suggests there is every chance of an interest rate cut and the Australian Dollar to weaken again in the coming months.

An interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for a currency and a hike in rates is generally positive and with exchange rates moving on speculation as well as fact even the slightest hint of a cut or hike can lead to quite a lot of market movement.

Tomorrow is an extremely busy day for those with Sterling to exchange to or from any other currency. We have the Bank of England minutes from their last interest rate decision at 09:30am and the budget at 12:30pm so be sure to keep a keen eye on the rates on and shortly after these times.

Once again if you have an exchange to carry out then I welcome all new clients and can generally get better exchange rates than any other company out there so even if you are already set up with a broker there is a good chance you can still save money. All you need to do to get in touch is email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a number and an explanation of what you are looking to do and I will make sure I get in touch.

Pound sterling hold ground as inflation is lowest in four years and MPC remain at 9-0 for interest rate hikes (Daniel Wright)

Sterling had a minor blip during trading yesterday, dropping back below the pivotal 1.25 level against the Euro in early morning trading.

Inflation figures released showed that inflation had dropped to its lowest levels in four years which must have given speculators and traders alike second thoughts on just when we may see an interest rate hike for the U.K.

Couple this with the news that 0 of the 9 members of the monetary policy committee had voted in favour of an interest rate hike and it does seem that maybe it is still a way away.

An interest rate hike is generally positive for the currency concerned and a rate cut is seen as negative so the mere speculation of a hike being just around the corner is usually enough to give the Pound a boost.

If you are looking to exchange currency in the near future then it may be prudent to contact me directly as i can not only help you achieve bank busting exchange rates but also hopefully add some value with market knowledge and assistance with the timing of your transaction.

Feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Sterling weakness up ahead? Why now is a good time to buy the pound

Jonathan Watson

Jonathan Watson

Currently sterling is well supported largely due to the strong likelihood of the UK raising interest rates next year. Investors are taking up positions on sterling in anticipation of better returns in the future. 80% of currency transactions are speculative and whilst this is not a topic we deal in for clients , it is a topic that is extremely relevant in determining future market movements for our clients.

Longer term sterling appears bound to increase significantly as the prospect of ultra low interest rates becomes the past. The pound has been flirting with 5 year highs on a trade weighted basis which when you consider interest rates have been at rock bottom for 5 years makes sense.

Since we won’t actually see any actual hike for some time there is certainly a good chance of more GBP weakness but it will be in pockets and not reflective of a greater downward trend. If you are going to need to purchase the pound in the future moving sooner is I believe the best course of action. Please contact me directly for assistance in sourcing the best rates and the optimum peaks to trade on. I assure you of being able to beat the banks and currency brokerages.

Many of my clients selling say Euros and Dollars after a property sale are quibbling over the fact they are trading at multi year lows. I wholly sympathise with these clients because when you do the calculation on the losses selling six figure sums in the last year they are substantial. But if you look further back say at the 10 year and 5 year figures you will see current rates are not so bad.

Take Mr Smith in France for example, who may have purchased there when rates were say 1.50. Imagine buying a 200,000 Euro property at 1.50. This would have cost you 133333.33 GBP. Fast forward ten years and unfortunately he has had to sell to come back to the UK and had to take a hit on the price. He had to sell for 175,000 Euros and was not happy at having lost 25,000 on the price. However he managed to get 1.20 on the rate which means his 175,000 Euros are actually worth 145833.33 GBP. Suddenly it is not such a bad deal and when he considers all the fun times he had there, the whole experience has actually not been too bad!

This just shows the importance of exchange rates when considering overseas transactions. Sterling is at a very good level now which may yet improve. Understanding what is driving exchange rates is critical to getting the best deal. For more information on the forecast for your particular situation please don’t hesitate to contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Are you ready for the emerging market sell off!

Jonathan Watson

Jonathan Watson

There has been much background speculation for years about a mass market sell off on ‘riskier’ assets and finally it looks like the dam has burst it banks. Make sure you don’t get caught in the flood! 

Often on exchange rates clear trends and patterns are difficult. Every now and again something creeps up however which is plain to see. And the current trends on the pound versus a whole host of what we term ‘riskier’ currencies is playing out as expected and may yet deteriorate further. Here is a list of the key currencies which I think will be affected:

 – South African Rand, Turkish Lira, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar

Why are they in trouble?

Global events have construed to put these currencies in a very tricky position. They have all been historically very strong against sterling due to improvements in their economies as a result of either strong demand for their natural resources (Australia, South Africa, Canada) or large scale overseas investment into the country (Turkey). Much of this money has been as a result of the QE (Quantitative Easing) programmes advocated by the United States and to a lesser extent the UK. All this extra money has had to go somewhere and so it has into stocks and other areas which offer a generous return.

The money is now being withdrawn and it is weakening these currencies. So long as the UK economy keeps improving (which is a very strong likelihood) and China slows down (which it is) this situation is likely to persist and deteriorate.

If you have any overseas interests to eventually return to pound sterling now is a very good time to weigh up your options. And it is not just these currencies which are in the firing line. Sterling is gaining against all currencies up at multi year highs against both the US dollar and the Euro. As the pound increases in value and we return to more normal exchange rates (from say 5 – 10 years ago) it will become much more expensive to buy pounds in the future.

We offer an option to ‘fix’ an exchange rate up to a year in advance which means if you know you will need to bring back funds in the future you can book the rate in now so you know exactly what you will get. This is very useful for anyone who is selling a property overseas as it means they know exactly what the sterling value of their property will be once the funds become available.

If you are interested to learn more I would be very happy to have a chat with you about your personal situation. Please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with Jonathan.

Pound Sterling exchange rates steady ahead of key interest rate decisions due out tomorrow

Sterling exchange rates have remained reasonably steady in trading today as we await a number of key economic data releases towards the end of this week.

The one big mover was once again against the Australian Dollar where once again we saw comments overnight from the RBA (Reserve bank of Australia) that the strong Australian Dollar was still a problem for the Australian economy opening the door for some type of weakening in the coming months. markets do move on speculation as well as fact and this led to the GBP-AUD rate going over 1.80 for the first time in two and a half years.

Tomorrow we have the interest rate decisions from both the U.K and Eurozone and although no major rate movements are expected, any comments from the BOE (Bank of England) or ECB ( European Central bank will be jumped on immediately which may lead to a volatile Sterling Euro rate in trading tomorrow.

The main market mover will be the press conference at 13:30pm from the European Central bank assuming no surprises crop up in the earlier rate decisions.

Investors hang off of every word that comes out of Head of the European Central Bank’s mouth so if you have a pending currency transfer to carry out involving wither buying or selling the Euro it may be prudent to keep a very close eye on exchange rates at that point.

If you are looking to exchange foreign currency in the near future involving either buying or selling the Pound against any major currency then it is well worth getting in touch with me directly. Not only can I keep you up to date with the very latest market movements but when it comes to buying your currency I can also help you get the very best rate of exchange.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on  djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally.

Wrap that transfer up like a neat gift

GBPZAR 5 year high, GBPAUD and GBPCAD 4 year highs, GBPUSD at 2 1/2 year high and GBPEUR over 1.20… 

Sterling is at truly exceptional levels against most currencies as the UK’s recovery rakes hold and the UK sets itself apart from other leading economies by appearing to be likely to be one of the first leading economies to be raising interest rates. Whilst the United States are debating when to stop QE, the UK have not done any QE for the last year. The ECB are looking at possibly negative interest rates and the Bank of Canada is no longer looking to tighten policy. Overnight we learnt that GDP in Australia was weaker than expected, again a sign of another leading economy weakening whilst the UK has been performing well.

With the often crazy Christmas period fast approaching and changes in banking days there is a lot to be said for wrapping up a transfer like a present. The recent spike on exchanges rates has been a great gift to you and now could be an excellent time to either buy your currency or lock into a forward contract to minimise any losses. You can then remove the stress of the transfer and focus on the more important things at this time of year!

If you have a pending transfer we offer a specialist service to assist you in securing the most from the market. For more information at no cost or obligation please do feel free to get in touch. I am a specialist currency broker and my job is to assist private clients and businesses in managing their exposure to the currency markets, ensuring payments are made quickly and safely at the very best rates.

Please feel free to contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call +44 1494 787 478 and ask to speak to me.