Tag Archives: interest

Inflation and unemployment figures key for where the pound heads next (Daniel Wright)

We have seen a  fairly quiet day on the trading floor today with little in terms of economic data for the markets to feel off of, however the next two days there are a few big releases for the markets to get their teeth into.

The Pound has been sat just above and just below what I see as a pivotal point against the Euro of 1.20. I feel that if we see Sterling break above this level then the Pound may push up by a couple of cents.

Tomorrow morning we have inflation data out at 09:30am and with inflation being one of the key factors involved in interest rate changes, investors and speculators alike will be watching  to see the results.

Following on from this we have the unemployment rate on Wednesday morning, also due to be released at 09:30am. Expectations are for unemployment to remain steady at 5% so any deviation from this level will no doubt lead to the Pound being particularly volatile.

I personally still feel that the weakness for Sterling will not last, of course there are banana skins ahead that could lead to the odd drop off, but in my opinion Sterling has slightly overshot the runway and should be a little stronger than it is at present.

We do not only offer out up to date and insightful market information but if you have a currency exchange to carry out involving any of the major currencies and you would like to speak with me personally then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk – I deal with clients buying and selling properties overseas, business transactions, high-net-worth individuals and premier league footballers on a daily basis so would be happy to assist you too in the strictest of confidence.

It only takes two minutes to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk to get a comparison and those few moments spent may save you a great deal of money as it is very rare that I cannot better someones rate of exchange and in this current market it is even more important to make the most of your money.

Pound rallies as the Bank of England leave rates on hold – Boost for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

Today we have seen the Pound gain value against every major currency following the Bank of England members voting 8-1 to keep interest rates on hold.

An interest rate cut had been expected by the financial markets and somewhat priced in so the fact that this did not happen led to the Pound gaining back some of the value it had lost.

For anyone looking to buy foreign currency this is a welcome result as your up and coming currency purchase has just become a little cheaper! One word of warning is that Mark Carney did state that easing would more than likely have to happen next month so don’t feel like we are not going to see an interest rate change or other easing bought in, it has just been merely delayed for the time being.

I would imagine the recent change in the political position has had an impact in this decision and that the Bank of England now wish to hold fire on making any sweeping moves to see how the land lies once the dust has settled.

We deal a lot with clients looking to buy or sell overseas property and I had a good long chat with the managing Director of Girasol Homes, a property finder for clients looking to buy property in Portugal and Spain (they do also cater for those looking to sell). We discussed the current market conditions and everything really is a lot more positive than many people have been led to believe out there in the overseas property market.

Those looking to sell have seen a welcome boost in the value of their Euros should they need to bring money back into GBP and those looking to buy  are only a few cents from the rolling ten year average for GBP/EUR so the market really isn’t in that bad a place. Those buyers that do have concerns about market conditions could also approach the possibility of hedging their position a little with a mortgage, this appears to be an inceasingly popular approach.

Should you be looking to buy or sell in Spain or Portugal and you would like to speak with Nigel about the market or how he will be able to help then feel free to visit www.girasolhomes.co.uk or email him at nigel@girasolhomes.co.uk quoting Pound Sterling Forecast so he knows where you found him.

Back on the currency front we have a fairly quiet day for most currencies now but overnight we have Chinese growth figures which should impact the Australian Dollar, and European inflation/trade balance figures at 10:00am tomorrow.

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England is speaking tomorrow at 1pm so for anyone with an interest in buying or selling Sterling it would be well worth you getting in touch with us directly so that we can keep you in touch with the action.

Not only do we ensure clients get up to the minute market news but we all work for a brokerage turning over roughly a billion pounds worth of currency a year, meaning we could probably get you a better rate of exchange than your current provider or bank due to our buying power.

If you would like to get a quote or to find out more information about our award winning rates and customer service then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch personally.

Pound Sterling Forecast – Inflation and unemployment key for Sterling exchange rates in the next two days (Daniel Wright)

Tomorrow morning brings the release of key inflation data for the U.K at 09:30am and expectations are for a slight drop off month on month but for figures to remain steady at 0.5% year on year.

The target for the Bank of England is to keep inflation steady at 2% so any figure higher than expectations may give Sterling a welcome boost and any drop off for inflation figures could knock the Pound back after a solid enough start to the week.

On Wednesday morning, also at 09:30am we have unemployment figures for the U.K and expectations are for the level of unemployment to remain at 5.1%. Unemployment is one of the key parameters considered when the Bank of England think about interest rate changes along with average earnings. The reason average earnings are so key is that if they are not going up in line or above inflation then the public would not have any more spare money to spend so an extra lump to pay on their mortgage payments each month may make life fairly difficult.

With the referendum slowly creeping up on us I feel like the Government and Bank of England would be doing their best to make economic data appear steady so I would not be surprised to see a good few days for Sterling exchange rates and a slight boost for the Pound.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

Sterling exchange rates have a quiet start to the week – Tomorrow and Thursday are sure to be different! (Daniel Wright)

So far this week we have not seen a great deal of movement for Sterling exchange rates but may that be about to change?

Tomorrow morning we have industrial and manufacturing figures out for the U.K and following poor construction figures last week, investors and speculators will be poised to see how the U.K performed in these sectors during April. Both releases are due out at 09:30am tomorrow morning so if you have an imminent exchange to make it is well worth tracking the market shortly after this time.

Thursday has the greatest potential for market volatility as we have the Bank of England interest rate decision, inflation report and the meeting minutes from the interest rate decision.

It is highly unlikely that we see any changes to interest rates however investors and speculators alike will be watching to see if any of the 9 members of the BOE have changed their stance with which way they would like interest rates to move.

The inflation report will also be of great importance, Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England) will give an overview as to what he plans to do about the current level of inflation and any potential changes to forecasts or fiscal policy may also result in a volatile day for Sterling exchange rates.

With releases like this coming out all the time it is key that you have a proactive and reliable broker on your side should you be due to carry out an exchange and that is where I can step in.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

Sterling exchange rates steady ahead of key inflation data tomorrow (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has been fairly range bound against most major currencies today, with economic data being fairly thin on the ground for the market to feed off of.

Overnight tonight we have the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) governor Glenn Stevens speaking about the Australian economy which may lead to a big impact on the Australian Dollar by the time we come in for trading first thing tomorrow morning.

We will no doubt hear about plans for the Australian economy and any mention of a change in interest rates will lead to volatility tonight.

Tomorrow we only really have one main talking point on the cards for the U.K and for Sterling and that is inflation data. At 09:30am we will have a flurry of inflation data  which will be the key talking point for the rest of the day. Expectations are for Core inflation to remain at 0.3% and should this remain the same we may be in for another quiet day.

The key really will be if we see any changes to the predicted 0.3%. Should inflation have climbed then we may see a vast boost for the value of the Pound however should it have dropped to 0.2% then Sterling may struggle for the rest of the week.

Inflation is one of the key factors that are considered for an interest rate change and should this be a little higher it should heighten the chance of a rate hike for the U.K which is seen as a positive for the Pound.

If you are looking to carry out a large currency exchange in the coming days, weeks or months then it is well worth getting in touch with me personally. I can help you get a better rate than other brokerages and on top of this ensure that you get a smooth and efficient service too. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you need to do and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Federal Reserve lower their previously positive tones – Budget leads to minimal movement (Daniel Wright)

So the budget was virtually a non event in currency terms, just as I had previously predicted which is usually the case unless any large surprises pop up that have not been leaked already.

The bigger market mover today was the Federal Reserve interest rate decision over in America which has led to Dollar weakness and a little strength for the Euro.

The Federal reserve dampened down their previously positive outlook. The main reasons behind their more slightly dovish tones was due to market developments and the global outlook still posing a risk.

An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned and a cut in rates negative, so now that it appears that we may not be seeing such a series of hikes for America we have seen the Dollar weaken off, making it more expensive to buy.

On top of this, for anyone with an interest in Euro, with Euro/Dollar being the most traded currency pairing in the world if we see either of these currencies weakening then the other tends the gain strength, this is why GBP/EUR dropped back into the 1.26s this evening.

If you have a currency exchange coming up involving buying or selling GBP, USD, EUR or indeed any other major currency then it is well worth getting in contact with me directly so that I can help you both try and time your exchange and also to ensure that you are getting the most on your exchange rate when you do decide to book your currency out.

You can contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your needs and I will be more than happy to call you or email back personally. Please note that we deal in bank to bank transfers only and cannot assist with holiday money.

Sterling has another exceedingly volatile day against Euro, Dollar and all majors – Global markets remain fragile (Daniel Wright)

It has been yet another busy day on the trading floor and we have seen yet another volatile 24 hours for Sterling exchange rates.

Markets around the world appear to be exceedingly nervous at present and there is a little worry that we may have one hell of a storm brewing ahead.

In the past year we have seen issues with the European economy, issues with the Chinese economy, oil prices dropping off, bank share prices plummet and the potential of any interest rate hike for the U.K slowly but surely be kicked further and further down the road so it is no surprise that the markets are acting a little out of the ordinary.

My personal opinion is still that Sterling is a little undervalued however when you do see negative movements like we have witnessed of late then the question does start to arise of how much further can it drop before we see a recovery? We all wish we truly knew the answer to this question as we would make a great deal of money…

The key with these sort of situations if you are due to be making a large exchange is to make sure you protect your position. Many people fall into the trap of thinking that they have to carry out their currency needs in one large chunk, and to time that correctly is almost impossible, along with the fact that you leave yourself extremely exposed.

If you are in the position that you do need to buy or sell a large quantity of currency for your business or indeed for the purchase or sale of a property then it is well worth getting in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly so that I can work together with you to try and maximise your money. I have been assisting clients in this position for nearly 10 years and I have been writing on this site for over 5 years so I am well positioned to not only help you get top commercial rates of exchange but also to ensure you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side at all times.

If you are stuck in a tricky position due to the latest movements and you are finding that you are stuck on your own with nowhere to turn the feel free to get in touch with me directly and I will be more than happy to call you personally. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk or call me on 01494 787 478 during U.K office hours of 08:30am – 18:00pm (please ask for Daniel Wright). You do not need to be based in the U.K for us to be able to help you.

The week ahead for Sterling exchange rates – Economic data of interest and contract types that may assist you (Daniel Wright)

So we have another busy week ahead for Sterling exchange rates including an interest rate decision for Australia tonight, Unemployment data for New Zealand tomorrow night, Bank of England interest rate decision and meeting minutes on Thursday lunchtime followed by Non-Farm Payroll data due out on Friday afternoon.

There is indeed plenty for the market to feel off of this week and I would expect some fairly large swings, especially for the Antipodean currencies (Australian and New Zealand Dollar) overnight early in the week. With the possibility of such large movements overnight it is key that you have protection in place should you be looking to carry out a currency exchange in the near future.

All the writers here at Pound Sterling Forecast work for a currency brokerage with a turnover of over half a billion Pounds a year, which means we have access to fantastic rates of exchange. Even if you feel you are getting a good deal elsewhere at the moment I would be extremely surprised if we couldn’t do better for you. You can email me (Daniel Wright) the creator and main editor of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be happy to contact you personally. You can also call me during U.K office hours on 01494 787 478 (please ensure you ask for Daniel Wright).

We have a number of contract types that can help you during such volatile times including the following:

Forward contract: This is where you can lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to two years in advance with just a small deposit. This is really handy for anyone buying or selling a property overseas that would like to protect some or even all of their funds against currency fluctuations. I see time and time again clients agreeing to purchase a property overseas and putting down a deposit only to find themselves in a tricky situation later down the line when coming to pay for the balance on the property because the rate has dropped so much. For some reason even the most sensible people decide to effectively gamble thousands of Pounds based purely on hope over actually having knowledge that an exchange rate will go their way. djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like more information.

Limit order: If there is a particular rate of exchange you would like to achieve but the market just is not there yet then you can place a limit order into the market. This order is free and can be cancelled or amended at any time you like as long as it has not gone through, but basically means that if at any time 24 hours a day/7 days a week your rate becomes achievable then your currency will be bought out automatically and we will just contact you to let you know the good news. djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like more information.

Stop Loss: This contract type is handy if you are working to a tight budget and cannot afford to go any lower than a particular rate and works in a similar way to the limit order above, yet will trigger should your buying rate hit your chosen lowest possible point. Some clients like to ‘chase the market up’ and raise their stop order on a daily basis when the market is moving in the right direction for them. djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like more information.

I have no doubt this will be a busy week, please do feel free to get in contact with more information on the above or if you have an exchange you with to carry out and you would like to know what rate we can offer you.

GMT Time left Area Currency Event Consensus Previous
09:30 UK GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 51.8 51.9
09:30 UK GBP Consumer Credit (Dec) £1.300B £1.476B
09:30 UK GBP Mortgage Approvals (Dec) 69.60K 70.41K
13:30 US USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 0.4%
13:30 US USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.1% 0.1%
13:30 US USD Personal Income (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% 0.3%
13:30 US USD Personal Spending (Dec) 0.1% 0.3%
13:30 US USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0%
13:30 US USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 1.3%
14:30 CA CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 47.5
14:45 US USD Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 52.7 52.7
15:00 US USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.0 48.2
15:00 US USD ISM Prices Paid (Jan) 34.0 33.5
15:00 US USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Dec) 0.6% -0.4%
16:00 EMU EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech
18:00 US USD Fed’s Stanley Fischer speech
TUESDAY, FEB 02
03:30 AU AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 2% 2%
03:30 AU AUD RBA Rate Statement
08:15 CH CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) -1.3% -3.1%
08:55 DE EUR Unemployment Change (Jan) -7K -14K
08:55 DE EUR Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jan) 6.3% 6.3%
09:00 IT EUR Unemployment (Nov) 11.3% 11.3%
09:30 UK GBP PMI Construction (Jan) 57.6 57.8
10:00 EMU EUR Unemployment Rate (Dec) 10.5% 10.5%
21:30 US USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 11.4M
21:45 NZ NZD Unemployment Rate (Q4) 6.1% 6.0%
21:45 NZ NZD Employment Change (Q4) 0.8% -0.4%
21:45 NZ NZD Participation Rate (Q4) 68.6%
WEDNESDAY, FEB 03
00:00 NZ NZD RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speech
00:30 AU AUD Exports (Dec) 1%
00:30 AU AUD Imports (Dec) -1%
00:30 AU AUD Trade Balance (Dec) -2,500M -2,906M
01:45 CN CNY Caixin China Services PMI (Jan) 50.2
02:30 JP JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech
08:00 EMU EUR Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting
08:15 ES EUR Markit Services PMI (Jan) 54.5 55.1
09:00 EMU EUR Markit PMI Composite (Jan) 53.5 53.5
09:00 EMU EUR Markit Services PMI (Jan) 53.6 53.6
10:00 EMU EUR European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts
13:15 US USD ADP Employment Change (Jan) 195K 257K
14:45 US USD Markit PMI Composite (Jan) 53.7
14:45 US USD Markit Services PMI (Jan) 53.7
15:00 US USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 55.1 55.3
15:30 US USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Jan 29) 8.383M
23:50 JP JPY Foreign bond investment (Jan 29) ¥475.3B
23:50 JP JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Jan 29) ¥-189.2B
THURSDAY, FEB 04
00:30 AU AUD National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q4) 0
06:45 CH CHF SECO Consumer Climate (3m) (Q1) -18
08:00 EMU EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech
09:00 EMU EUR Economic Bulletin
12:00 UK GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb 4) 0.5% 0.5%
12:00 UK GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility (Feb) £375B
12:00 UK GBP Monetary Policy Summary
12:00 UK GBP Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
12:00 UK GBP BOE MPC Vote Unchanged 8 8
12:00 UK GBP BOE MPC Vote Cut 0 0
12:00 UK GBP BOE MPC Vote Hike 1 1
12:00 UK GBP Bank of England Minutes
12:45 UK GBP BOE’s Governor Carney speech
13:30 US USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 29) 278K
15:00 US USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec) -2.6% -0.2%
22:30 AU AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (Jan) 46.8
FRIDAY, FEB 05
00:30 AU AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Dec) 0.5% 0.4%
00:30 AU AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
05:00 JP JPY Coincident Index (Dec 111.9
05:00 JP JPY Leading Economic Index (Dec) 103.5
13:30 US USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) 190K 292K
13:30 US USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Jan) 2.5%
13:30 US USD Unemployment Rate (Jan) 5% 5%
13:30 US USD Labor Force Participation Rate (Jan) 62.6%
13:30 US USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% 0.0%
13:30 US USD Trade Balance (Dec) $-43.0B $-42.4B
13:30 CA CAD Unemployment Rate (Jan) 7.1%
13:30 CA CAD Net Change in Employment (Jan) 22.8K
15:00 CA CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Jan) 42.5
15:00 CA CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (Jan) 50.3 49.9
18:00 US USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 498
20:00 US USD Consumer Credit Change (Dec) $16.00B $13.95B

I have no doubt this will be a busy week, please do feel free to get in contact with more information on the above or if you have an exchange you with to carry out and you would like to know what rate we can offer you. You can call me on our trading floor 01494 787 478 or email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to assisting you.

 

Pound Sterling exchange rates rise along with inflation figures – Rate hike edging closer? (Daniel Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have had a good day against all major currencies during trading today following following news that inflation year on year was now sat at 0.1% which was slightly higher than market expectations of inflation remaining at 0%.

This has now led to money in the city being piled on interest rate hikes for the U.K potentially being a little sooner than had been thought 24 hours ago. We would indeed need to see average earnings and unemployment figures for the U.K show an improvement over the coming months for this to really become a reality but should this happen then Sterling may be in for a good run of form.

i think the key in a situation such as this is to hedge your bets and protect yourself from any adverse market movements, as regular readers will be more than aware when Sterling does tend to look buoyant, more often than not something seems to come out to knock it straight back down again.

If you have a pending currency exchange to carry out then I would suggest splitting your requirement into chunks rather than leaving the full sum exposed. A lot of people do fall into the trap that they have (as an example £200,000) to exchange so they need to time booking it out perfectly. By splitting into two lots of £100k or even four tranches of £50k and doing it over a period of weeks or months, depending on how long you have to wait you can eliminate some of the risk whilst still leaving a healthy sum to take advantage of it all with.

If you need to carry out a currency exchange for a personal property transaction or a corporate exchange for your company then I can help you both in terms of getting not only the very top level of exchange rates but a smooth and efficient level of service too. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk letting me know exactly what your requirement is and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Commodity currencies have been extremely volatile since the devaluation of the Yuan over three consecutive days of trading last week. The lowered value of the Yuan points to decreased confidence in an economy which represents one sixth of the world’s population. As a result this is lowering forecasts for future global demand for commodities, which has hit currencies like the CAD, and AUD hardest. For more information and examples on how these currencies are expected to perform over the next few months and predictions on how they will weather the storm click here.

 

Pound may surge in trading tomorrow morning if BOE minutes give a nod towards a rate hike (Daniel Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have the potential to creep up over the course of trading tomorrow morning as we have both the Bank of England minutes and the inflation report.

Interestingly enough the BOE are due to change the amount of meetings they have from 12 to 8 which I found out yesterday.

The key really will be how many members of the BOE voted in favour of an interest rate hike, should we have even one more member now in favour of a hike in rates then Sterling may rise off of the back of it as an interest rate hike is generally seen as extremely positive for the currency concerned.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out either now or in the future then it is well worth getting in touch with me personally. I can help you not only get a great rate of exchange but also with the timing of your transaction. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally to speak to you.