Tag Archives: interest
The Pound has been fairly range bound against most major currencies today, with economic data being fairly thin on the ground for the market to feed off of.
Overnight tonight we have the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) governor Glenn Stevens speaking about the Australian economy which may lead to a big impact on the Australian Dollar by the time we come in for trading first thing tomorrow morning.
We will no doubt hear about plans for the Australian economy and any mention of a change in interest rates will lead to volatility tonight.
Tomorrow we only really have one main talking point on the cards for the U.K and for Sterling and that is inflation data. At 09:30am we will have a flurry of inflation data which will be the key talking point for the rest of the day. Expectations are for Core inflation to remain at 0.3% and should this remain the same we may be in for another quiet day.
The key really will be if we see any changes to the predicted 0.3%. Should inflation have climbed then we may see a vast boost for the value of the Pound however should it have dropped to 0.2% then Sterling may struggle for the rest of the week.
Inflation is one of the key factors that are considered for an interest rate change and should this be a little higher it should heighten the chance of a rate hike for the U.K which is seen as a positive for the Pound.
If you are looking to carry out a large currency exchange in the coming days, weeks or months then it is well worth getting in touch with me personally. I can help you get a better rate than other brokerages and on top of this ensure that you get a smooth and efficient service too. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on email@example.com with a description of what you need to do and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.
Federal Reserve lower their previously positive tones – Budget leads to minimal movement (Daniel Wright)
So the budget was virtually a non event in currency terms, just as I had previously predicted which is usually the case unless any large surprises pop up that have not been leaked already.
The bigger market mover today was the Federal Reserve interest rate decision over in America which has led to Dollar weakness and a little strength for the Euro.
The Federal reserve dampened down their previously positive outlook. The main reasons behind their more slightly dovish tones was due to market developments and the global outlook still posing a risk.
An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned and a cut in rates negative, so now that it appears that we may not be seeing such a series of hikes for America we have seen the Dollar weaken off, making it more expensive to buy.
On top of this, for anyone with an interest in Euro, with Euro/Dollar being the most traded currency pairing in the world if we see either of these currencies weakening then the other tends the gain strength, this is why GBP/EUR dropped back into the 1.26s this evening.
If you have a currency exchange coming up involving buying or selling GBP, USD, EUR or indeed any other major currency then it is well worth getting in contact with me directly so that I can help you both try and time your exchange and also to ensure that you are getting the most on your exchange rate when you do decide to book your currency out.
You can contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site directly on firstname.lastname@example.org with a brief description of your needs and I will be more than happy to call you or email back personally. Please note that we deal in bank to bank transfers only and cannot assist with holiday money.
Sterling has another exceedingly volatile day against Euro, Dollar and all majors – Global markets remain fragile (Daniel Wright)
It has been yet another busy day on the trading floor and we have seen yet another volatile 24 hours for Sterling exchange rates.
Markets around the world appear to be exceedingly nervous at present and there is a little worry that we may have one hell of a storm brewing ahead.
In the past year we have seen issues with the European economy, issues with the Chinese economy, oil prices dropping off, bank share prices plummet and the potential of any interest rate hike for the U.K slowly but surely be kicked further and further down the road so it is no surprise that the markets are acting a little out of the ordinary.
My personal opinion is still that Sterling is a little undervalued however when you do see negative movements like we have witnessed of late then the question does start to arise of how much further can it drop before we see a recovery? We all wish we truly knew the answer to this question as we would make a great deal of money…
The key with these sort of situations if you are due to be making a large exchange is to make sure you protect your position. Many people fall into the trap of thinking that they have to carry out their currency needs in one large chunk, and to time that correctly is almost impossible, along with the fact that you leave yourself extremely exposed.
If you are in the position that you do need to buy or sell a large quantity of currency for your business or indeed for the purchase or sale of a property then it is well worth getting in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly so that I can work together with you to try and maximise your money. I have been assisting clients in this position for nearly 10 years and I have been writing on this site for over 5 years so I am well positioned to not only help you get top commercial rates of exchange but also to ensure you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side at all times.
If you are stuck in a tricky position due to the latest movements and you are finding that you are stuck on your own with nowhere to turn the feel free to get in touch with me directly and I will be more than happy to call you personally. You can email me on email@example.com or call me on 01494 787 478 during U.K office hours of 08:30am – 18:00pm (please ask for Daniel Wright). You do not need to be based in the U.K for us to be able to help you.
The week ahead for Sterling exchange rates – Economic data of interest and contract types that may assist you (Daniel Wright)
So we have another busy week ahead for Sterling exchange rates including an interest rate decision for Australia tonight, Unemployment data for New Zealand tomorrow night, Bank of England interest rate decision and meeting minutes on Thursday lunchtime followed by Non-Farm Payroll data due out on Friday afternoon.
There is indeed plenty for the market to feel off of this week and I would expect some fairly large swings, especially for the Antipodean currencies (Australian and New Zealand Dollar) overnight early in the week. With the possibility of such large movements overnight it is key that you have protection in place should you be looking to carry out a currency exchange in the near future.
All the writers here at Pound Sterling Forecast work for a currency brokerage with a turnover of over half a billion Pounds a year, which means we have access to fantastic rates of exchange. Even if you feel you are getting a good deal elsewhere at the moment I would be extremely surprised if we couldn’t do better for you. You can email me (Daniel Wright) the creator and main editor of this site on firstname.lastname@example.org with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be happy to contact you personally. You can also call me during U.K office hours on 01494 787 478 (please ensure you ask for Daniel Wright).
We have a number of contract types that can help you during such volatile times including the following:
Forward contract: This is where you can lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to two years in advance with just a small deposit. This is really handy for anyone buying or selling a property overseas that would like to protect some or even all of their funds against currency fluctuations. I see time and time again clients agreeing to purchase a property overseas and putting down a deposit only to find themselves in a tricky situation later down the line when coming to pay for the balance on the property because the rate has dropped so much. For some reason even the most sensible people decide to effectively gamble thousands of Pounds based purely on hope over actually having knowledge that an exchange rate will go their way. email@example.com if you would like more information.
Limit order: If there is a particular rate of exchange you would like to achieve but the market just is not there yet then you can place a limit order into the market. This order is free and can be cancelled or amended at any time you like as long as it has not gone through, but basically means that if at any time 24 hours a day/7 days a week your rate becomes achievable then your currency will be bought out automatically and we will just contact you to let you know the good news. firstname.lastname@example.org if you would like more information.
Stop Loss: This contract type is handy if you are working to a tight budget and cannot afford to go any lower than a particular rate and works in a similar way to the limit order above, yet will trigger should your buying rate hit your chosen lowest possible point. Some clients like to ‘chase the market up’ and raise their stop order on a daily basis when the market is moving in the right direction for them. email@example.com if you would like more information.
I have no doubt this will be a busy week, please do feel free to get in contact with more information on the above or if you have an exchange you with to carry out and you would like to know what rate we can offer you.
|09:30||UK||GBP||Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan)||51.8||51.9|
|09:30||UK||GBP||Consumer Credit (Dec)||£1.300B||£1.476B|
|09:30||UK||GBP||Mortgage Approvals (Dec)||69.60K||70.41K|
|13:30||US||USD||Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) (Dec)||0.4%|
|13:30||US||USD||Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (MoM) (Dec)||0.1%||0.1%|
|13:30||US||USD||Personal Income (MoM) (Dec)||0.2%||0.3%|
|13:30||US||USD||Personal Spending (Dec)||0.1%||0.3%|
|13:30||US||USD||Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) (Dec)||0%|
|13:30||US||USD||Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) (Dec)||1.3%|
|14:30||CA||CAD||RBC Manufacturing PMI (Jan)||47.5|
|14:45||US||USD||Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan)||52.7||52.7|
|15:00||US||USD||ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)||48.0||48.2|
|15:00||US||USD||ISM Prices Paid (Jan)||34.0||33.5|
|15:00||US||USD||Construction Spending (MoM) (Dec)||0.6%||-0.4%|
|16:00||EMU||EUR||ECB President Draghi’s Speech|
|18:00||US||USD||Fed’s Stanley Fischer speech|
|TUESDAY, FEB 02|
|03:30||AU||AUD||RBA Interest Rate Decision||2%||2%|
|03:30||AU||AUD||RBA Rate Statement|
|08:15||CH||CHF||Real Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan)||-1.3%||-3.1%|
|08:55||DE||EUR||Unemployment Change (Jan)||-7K||-14K|
|08:55||DE||EUR||Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jan)||6.3%||6.3%|
|09:30||UK||GBP||PMI Construction (Jan)||57.6||57.8|
|10:00||EMU||EUR||Unemployment Rate (Dec)||10.5%||10.5%|
|21:30||US||USD||API Weekly Crude Oil Stock||11.4M|
|21:45||NZ||NZD||Unemployment Rate (Q4)||6.1%||6.0%|
|21:45||NZ||NZD||Employment Change (Q4)||0.8%||-0.4%|
|21:45||NZ||NZD||Participation Rate (Q4)||68.6%|
|WEDNESDAY, FEB 03|
|00:00||NZ||NZD||RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speech|
|00:30||AU||AUD||Trade Balance (Dec)||-2,500M||-2,906M|
|01:45||CN||CNY||Caixin China Services PMI (Jan)||50.2|
|02:30||JP||JPY||Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech|
|08:00||EMU||EUR||Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting|
|08:15||ES||EUR||Markit Services PMI (Jan)||54.5||55.1|
|09:00||EMU||EUR||Markit PMI Composite (Jan)||53.5||53.5|
|09:00||EMU||EUR||Markit Services PMI (Jan)||53.6||53.6|
|10:00||EMU||EUR||European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts|
|13:15||US||USD||ADP Employment Change (Jan)||195K||257K|
|14:45||US||USD||Markit PMI Composite (Jan)||53.7|
|14:45||US||USD||Markit Services PMI (Jan)||53.7|
|15:00||US||USD||ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)||55.1||55.3|
|15:30||US||USD||EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Jan 29)||8.383M|
|23:50||JP||JPY||Foreign bond investment (Jan 29)||¥475.3B|
|23:50||JP||JPY||Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Jan 29)||¥-189.2B|
|THURSDAY, FEB 04|
|00:30||AU||AUD||National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q4)||0|
|06:45||CH||CHF||SECO Consumer Climate (3m) (Q1)||-18|
|08:00||EMU||EUR||ECB President Draghi’s Speech|
|12:00||UK||GBP||BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb 4)||0.5%||0.5%|
|12:00||UK||GBP||BoE Asset Purchase Facility (Feb)||£375B|
|12:00||UK||GBP||Monetary Policy Summary|
|12:00||UK||GBP||Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report|
|12:00||UK||GBP||BOE MPC Vote Unchanged||8||8|
|12:00||UK||GBP||BOE MPC Vote Cut||0||0|
|12:00||UK||GBP||BOE MPC Vote Hike||1||1|
|12:00||UK||GBP||Bank of England Minutes|
|12:45||UK||GBP||BOE’s Governor Carney speech|
|13:30||US||USD||Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 29)||278K|
|15:00||US||USD||Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec)||-2.6%||-0.2%|
|22:30||AU||AUD||AiG Performance of Construction Index (Jan)||46.8|
|FRIDAY, FEB 05|
|00:30||AU||AUD||Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Dec)||0.5%||0.4%|
|00:30||AU||AUD||RBA Monetary Policy Statement|
|05:00||JP||JPY||Coincident Index (Dec||111.9|
|05:00||JP||JPY||Leading Economic Index (Dec)||103.5|
|13:30||US||USD||Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)||190K||292K|
|13:30||US||USD||Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Jan)||2.5%|
|13:30||US||USD||Unemployment Rate (Jan)||5%||5%|
|13:30||US||USD||Labor Force Participation Rate (Jan)||62.6%|
|13:30||US||USD||Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)||0.3%||0.0%|
|13:30||US||USD||Trade Balance (Dec)||$-43.0B||$-42.4B|
|13:30||CA||CAD||Unemployment Rate (Jan)||7.1%|
|13:30||CA||CAD||Net Change in Employment (Jan)||22.8K|
|15:00||CA||CAD||Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Jan)||42.5|
|15:00||CA||CAD||Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (Jan)||50.3||49.9|
|18:00||US||USD||Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count||498|
|20:00||US||USD||Consumer Credit Change (Dec)||$16.00B||$13.95B|
I have no doubt this will be a busy week, please do feel free to get in contact with more information on the above or if you have an exchange you with to carry out and you would like to know what rate we can offer you. You can call me on our trading floor 01494 787 478 or email me directly firstname.lastname@example.org and I look forward to assisting you.
Pound Sterling exchange rates rise along with inflation figures – Rate hike edging closer? (Daniel Wright)
Sterling exchange rates have had a good day against all major currencies during trading today following following news that inflation year on year was now sat at 0.1% which was slightly higher than market expectations of inflation remaining at 0%.
This has now led to money in the city being piled on interest rate hikes for the U.K potentially being a little sooner than had been thought 24 hours ago. We would indeed need to see average earnings and unemployment figures for the U.K show an improvement over the coming months for this to really become a reality but should this happen then Sterling may be in for a good run of form.
i think the key in a situation such as this is to hedge your bets and protect yourself from any adverse market movements, as regular readers will be more than aware when Sterling does tend to look buoyant, more often than not something seems to come out to knock it straight back down again.
If you have a pending currency exchange to carry out then I would suggest splitting your requirement into chunks rather than leaving the full sum exposed. A lot of people do fall into the trap that they have (as an example £200,000) to exchange so they need to time booking it out perfectly. By splitting into two lots of £100k or even four tranches of £50k and doing it over a period of weeks or months, depending on how long you have to wait you can eliminate some of the risk whilst still leaving a healthy sum to take advantage of it all with.
If you need to carry out a currency exchange for a personal property transaction or a corporate exchange for your company then I can help you both in terms of getting not only the very top level of exchange rates but a smooth and efficient level of service too. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on email@example.com letting me know exactly what your requirement is and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.
Commodity currencies have been extremely volatile since the devaluation of the Yuan over three consecutive days of trading last week. The lowered value of the Yuan points to decreased confidence in an economy which represents one sixth of the world’s population. As a result this is lowering forecasts for future global demand for commodities, which has hit currencies like the CAD, and AUD hardest. For more information and examples on how these currencies are expected to perform over the next few months and predictions on how they will weather the storm click here.
Pound may surge in trading tomorrow morning if BOE minutes give a nod towards a rate hike (Daniel Wright)
Sterling exchange rates have the potential to creep up over the course of trading tomorrow morning as we have both the Bank of England minutes and the inflation report.
Interestingly enough the BOE are due to change the amount of meetings they have from 12 to 8 which I found out yesterday.
The key really will be how many members of the BOE voted in favour of an interest rate hike, should we have even one more member now in favour of a hike in rates then Sterling may rise off of the back of it as an interest rate hike is generally seen as extremely positive for the currency concerned.
If you have a currency exchange to carry out either now or in the future then it is well worth getting in touch with me personally. I can help you not only get a great rate of exchange but also with the timing of your transaction. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on firstname.lastname@example.org and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally to speak to you.
Sterling Euro creeps down from 1.40 – Market poised on Federal Reserve decision tomorrow and RBA minutes confirm future interest rate cut is probable (Daniel Wright)
An interesting day on the currency markets for Sterling, seeing the rate come down from 1.40 against the Euro, finished the day in the mid 1.47s against the Dollar and ended close to 1.94 against the Australian Dollar.
Earlier this morning European inflation figures were one of the main drivers for a little Euro strength which has been an extremely rare occurrence over the past few weeks. This gave those looking to sell Euros a brief opportunity to achieve a slightly better price and showed again just how important it is to buy on spikes when they occur and not to get greedy and miss out.
There is every chance we may see the rate push back through 1.40 but it is key to remember that if you are buying Euros then you are almost already a whopping 10% up on the rate at the turn of the year so if you are in the process of buying a property overseas with Euros it may be prudent to at least lock in a portion of your funds as there are still plenty of issues that could bring the rate back down… One being the election.
If you are looking to buy or indeed sell Euros in the near future and you would like my assistance and to get not only award winning exchange rates but a high level of customer service then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on email@example.com and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.
Anyone in the position of selling Dollars will be pleased with the last few weeks movements as we saw the rate burst through the 1.50 mark for the first time in a few years. Tomorrow we have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and monetary policy statement which will be a key indicator as to when the Fed may look to raise interest rates and could lead to quite a volatile evening for the Dollar.
For Australian Dollar followers the RBA commented last night in their latest meeting minutes that they would cut interest rates if they needed to in the future which suggests there is every chance of an interest rate cut and the Australian Dollar to weaken again in the coming months.
An interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for a currency and a hike in rates is generally positive and with exchange rates moving on speculation as well as fact even the slightest hint of a cut or hike can lead to quite a lot of market movement.
Tomorrow is an extremely busy day for those with Sterling to exchange to or from any other currency. We have the Bank of England minutes from their last interest rate decision at 09:30am and the budget at 12:30pm so be sure to keep a keen eye on the rates on and shortly after these times.
Once again if you have an exchange to carry out then I welcome all new clients and can generally get better exchange rates than any other company out there so even if you are already set up with a broker there is a good chance you can still save money. All you need to do to get in touch is email me (Daniel Wright) directly on firstname.lastname@example.org with a number and an explanation of what you are looking to do and I will make sure I get in touch.
Pound sterling hold ground as inflation is lowest in four years and MPC remain at 9-0 for interest rate hikes (Daniel Wright)
Sterling had a minor blip during trading yesterday, dropping back below the pivotal 1.25 level against the Euro in early morning trading.
Inflation figures released showed that inflation had dropped to its lowest levels in four years which must have given speculators and traders alike second thoughts on just when we may see an interest rate hike for the U.K.
Couple this with the news that 0 of the 9 members of the monetary policy committee had voted in favour of an interest rate hike and it does seem that maybe it is still a way away.
An interest rate hike is generally positive for the currency concerned and a rate cut is seen as negative so the mere speculation of a hike being just around the corner is usually enough to give the Pound a boost.
If you are looking to exchange currency in the near future then it may be prudent to contact me directly as i can not only help you achieve bank busting exchange rates but also hopefully add some value with market knowledge and assistance with the timing of your transaction.
Feel free to email me directly on email@example.com and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.
Currently sterling is well supported largely due to the strong likelihood of the UK raising interest rates next year. Investors are taking up positions on sterling in anticipation of better returns in the future. 80% of currency transactions are speculative and whilst this is not a topic we deal in for clients , it is a topic that is extremely relevant in determining future market movements for our clients.
Longer term sterling appears bound to increase significantly as the prospect of ultra low interest rates becomes the past. The pound has been flirting with 5 year highs on a trade weighted basis which when you consider interest rates have been at rock bottom for 5 years makes sense.
Since we won’t actually see any actual hike for some time there is certainly a good chance of more GBP weakness but it will be in pockets and not reflective of a greater downward trend. If you are going to need to purchase the pound in the future moving sooner is I believe the best course of action. Please contact me directly for assistance in sourcing the best rates and the optimum peaks to trade on. I assure you of being able to beat the banks and currency brokerages.
Many of my clients selling say Euros and Dollars after a property sale are quibbling over the fact they are trading at multi year lows. I wholly sympathise with these clients because when you do the calculation on the losses selling six figure sums in the last year they are substantial. But if you look further back say at the 10 year and 5 year figures you will see current rates are not so bad.
Take Mr Smith in France for example, who may have purchased there when rates were say 1.50. Imagine buying a 200,000 Euro property at 1.50. This would have cost you 133333.33 GBP. Fast forward ten years and unfortunately he has had to sell to come back to the UK and had to take a hit on the price. He had to sell for 175,000 Euros and was not happy at having lost 25,000 on the price. However he managed to get 1.20 on the rate which means his 175,000 Euros are actually worth 145833.33 GBP. Suddenly it is not such a bad deal and when he considers all the fun times he had there, the whole experience has actually not been too bad!
This just shows the importance of exchange rates when considering overseas transactions. Sterling is at a very good level now which may yet improve. Understanding what is driving exchange rates is critical to getting the best deal. For more information on the forecast for your particular situation please don’t hesitate to contact me directly on firstname.lastname@example.org