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Pound Sterling Forecast – What has happened and what may happen to the pound going forward? Sterling exchange rate news against the Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Swiss Franc and South African Rand
Good afternoon – Please find the latest news surrounding the Pound and what may happen going forward:
Sterling – Euro
The Pound has had a fairly stable week against the Euro.
Today could have created a great deal of volatility and there were some fairly swift exchange rate movements however head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi did not announce anything of any great significance during his press conference this afternoon and the bank of England kept everything as normal regarding interest rates and Quantitative Easing.
Tomorrow morning we have European Retail Sales figures out which you would imagine will not be great so we may see a small Euro buying opportunity in the morning.
Sterling – Dollar
The Dollar is seemingly making a little fight back once again against the Pound however four factors could affect this in the short term. Firstly the BOE interest rate decision today, secondly the issue with North Korea…. Hopefully this will calm down before any major action happens however be wary that you could see swift movements for the USD should the current threats start to gain some traction.
Thirdly, we have chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke speaking this evening on the U.S economy so be aware of potential sharp swings for the Dollar overnight depending on what he says regarding future economic policy.
Finally, we have Non-Farm Payroll data out tomorrow for the States which can actually affect all major currencies. NFP data is essentially the number of people in non agricultural employment within the U.S and the reason it can lead to market volatility is it can effect global attitude to risk – Keep your eyes peeled for this data at 13:30pm tomorrow.
Sterling – Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
The Pound is still finding these two as tough opposition and with news that commodity prices had risen by over 7% recently and that the Reserve Bank of Australia have once again kept rates on hold. The strange thing with these pairings is that both Governments appear to be disappointed with how strong their currencies are however neither seems to be doing much about it.
The general outlook is that the trend may continue unless someone steps in to do something about it however if global attitude to risk suddenly decreases then there is a good chance we may see a sharp spike and a potential buying opportunity – contact me today if you want to be made aware should this situation occur.
Sterling – South African Rand
This pairing has been fairly stable of late however once again attitude to risk falling globally may lead to the ZAR weakening again along with any further troubles over in South Africa that we saw a few months back.
Sterling – Swiss Franc
Again, no major movements of late for the pound against the Swiss Franc since the huge charge the Swissy made against Sterling a few months ago – Gaining around 8 cents in a week or so. This pairing is a strange one as the Swiss Government are still not particularly happy with the strength of their currency at present so at any point we could see them bring in a new fiscal policy like we saw quite some time ago where the Swiss Franc lost 10 cents in an hour!
All in all I think the strength of the Pound will be reliant on what happens with the bank of England today and also any rumours or predictions surrounding whether or not the U.K will fall back into recession on the 25th April.
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Will the UK avoid recession? The BCC certainly thinks we will…..could the pound get stronger? (Michael Vaughan)
Today has been a slightly strange day as the pound has lost ground against the majority of currencies, and in some cases quite heavily losing over 1% against the New Zealand Dollar, 0.9% against the Australian Dollar, 0.7% versus the US dollar and 0.6% against the Euro. This comes following a much needed Easter break, and although the UK is showing little sign of spring like conditions, could we be seeing the beginnings of an economic recovery to brighten up your day? Certainly the British Chambers of Commerce thinks so. In a report released this morning the BCC indicated that a strong performance by Britain’s service industries during the first three months of the year has kept the economy growing. The BCC’s survey, which included more than 7,000 firms, found that conditions for both the services and manufacturing sectors were improving, but the services sector saw some of the biggest improvements, with strong domestic sales and exports, and with Services accounting for about three-quarters of the UK economy this is certainly positive news.
Following this news from the BCC the Euro zone released their latest unemployment figures showing a record high of 12% and bringing total unemployment to over 19 million. The highest jobless rates were 26.4% in Greece, although this figure was from December, and 26.3% in Spain. This you would think would all lead to a good, positive day for the pound, but we have infact seen the exact opposite. I for one cannot see an exact explanation for the pounds losses however to me this really empasises what a volatile market place this currently is. I do feel this is a s light blip for the pound and would expect levels against the Euro in particular to remain range bound between 1.17-19, I do also feel the overall benefactor of the ongoing Cyprus debacle will be the US dollar as it gains from its historical ‘safe haven’ tag. For this reason look for a move back to 1.50 for GBP/USD and EUR/USD to move towards 1.27.
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This week is to be of great interest for those with upcoming currency transfers – A lot of economic data to consider!
This week is expected to be a fairly volatile one for Sterling against most major currencies as we are due lots of economic data out from across the globe over the course of the weeks trading.
Today will no doubt be the calm before the storm as we have Labour day over in the States leading to slightly thinner trading conditions and not too much in the way of data out either.
Here is an overview of what to expect for the week ahead and which moments to keep an extra keen eye on the market for in your particular circumstances.
One for very early starters and potentially to think about today if you are based in the U.K is the Australian Interest Rate decision due at 05:30am on Tuesday morning. No change to rates is expected however be aware we could see a surprise on this one as there Had been speculation of a rate cut to push back the ever strong AUD. An interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for the currency concerned and a hike positive so any movement or even hint of rate movement could lead to market volatility overnight.
Following this another for early birds is the Swiss Gross Domestic Product figure – GDP measures the amount an economy grew or shrank during a specific period and in this instance the Swiss economy is expected to grown but by a lot less than the rate it had been growing at, should this happen we may see the Swiss Franc lose a little ground on Tuesday morning so for anyone looking to sell Swiss Francs it may be prudent to do at some point today.
For Euro followers we than have a little Inflationary data for the Euro zone at 10:00am.
Again Australia starts the ball rolling on Wednesday with GDP figures coming out at 02:30am – Expectations are for the economy still to be growing however for the pace to have dropped a little, potential for AUD weakness overnight is there should this be the case.
Some Inflation Data out at 08:15am for Switzerland following by a raft of inflationary data floating in from Europe, European Retail sales and the European unemployment rate at 10:00am so Euro buyers and sellers really do need to be on the ball during the morning session, if you have an upcoming Euro transfer yet don’t have time to follow a market that moves every two seconds then let me do the donkey work for you – Feel free to email me directly email@example.com and get a specialist on your side which could save you thousands of Pounds.
Later in the day we have the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision at 14:00pm – No change to interest rates is expected however any comments on economic change may lead to a volatile afternoon for the Canadian Dollar.
Thursday doesn’t let us down when it comes to data and we have some larger releases for Sterling, Euro and Dollar interest.
First things first we have European GDP figures at 10:00am to kick start the day with a bang followed by the U.K interest rate decision due out at 12:00pm – Again no change in rates is expected but mention of QE and any other economic tactics could lead to a shaky afternoon for the Pound.
Shortly after this we have the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and an interest rate cut is on the cards for this one. Should we see a cut the Euro may slightly weaken however when a release is already forecast by analysts the market tends to move in advance of this so should we not see a cut the Euro may strengthen further with force as the market corrects itself. The head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi also holds a press conference at 13:30pm and this can give indication on future policy and lead to a very jumpy hour or so for Euro Exchange Rates.
Thursday afternoon will see the release of some employment data for the States so the Dollar may join the volatility party if we do see any change from expectations.
To finish the week off we have early morning Swiss Unemployment at 06:45am and then some Industrial and Manufacturing data out for the U.K at 09:30am which can lead to large swings for the Pound depending on how it comes out, further GDP data for the Euro zone is due at 11:00 and then finally Non Farm Payroll data at 13:30pm we have a data release important for those with a Dollar interest and indeed interest in the ‘riskier’ currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR. Non-Farm Payroll data is essentially the number of people in Non-agricultural employment over in the States and is a key indication as to how their economy is performing.
This release can cause quite a lot of volatility because predictions are made in advance and these can be wildly out. The market moves on rumours and predictions as well as fact, and should the figure come out quite a way from initial predictions the market does correct itself rather swiftly.The reason this effects the AUD, NZD and ZAR and pretty much most majors is because as I am sure you can imagine it will affect attitude to risk and will lead to rapid movements of large amounts of money globally in what generally presents an interesting week to say the least without any surprises popping up during the course of it.
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Sterling Report and Currency Forecast – The week ahead against Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, South African Rand and all majors
Here is my report on what is due out this week, how it may change the currency markets and what may happen to the Pound.
Sterling -Euro and data for the Pound this week
With head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi giving us very positive comments last week, Spanish bond yields heading away from the troubled 7% marker and U.K PMI data highly disappointing last week the Pound may struggle again in the early part of this week. It appears the opportunity may have gone for those looking for a great time to buy Euros and once again it will be those that got too greedy that will miss out. Again who knows what is around the corner for the Euro as there is no smoke without fire, but it does look like for the time being things have calmed down a little.
Data this week that may affect this pairing is tomorrow at 15:00 roughly we have the GDP estimate from the NIESR (National Institute of Social and Economic Research) and this is generally regarded fairly highly by investors, a negative figure could lead people to believe we are even deeper in recession than we currently believe we are and a slightly more positive prediciton of the growth figures of the U.K economy may lead to a good end to Tuesday for the Pound.
Wednesday sees the Bank of England inflation report, which may as always give indications to future monetary policies for the U.K.
Thursday we have the European Central Bank monthly report which again could throw anything into the mix, following the positive comments from the head of the ECB last week investors will be highly interested to see what comes from this and what the future plans from the ECB are, this will effect all currencies as it may throw up a change in global attitude to risk.
Sterling – Dollar
Following promising Non-Farm Payroll data the Dollar has started to charge again against Sterling and we see little data of note for the States this week however data for the Pound as above and attitude to risk will be key for this pairing. Should the ECB make investors be willing to take risks then the Dollar may weaken, should they do quite the opposite then investors may run to the Dollar as a safer haven and the Dollar may gain strength.
Sterling -Australian Dollar
A busy week for the Australian Dollar this week after a really poor performance from the Pound against the AUD last week. We have the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision tomorrow very early in the morning, no change in rates is expected however should the RBA surprise us with a rate cut then we may see the rates move back in the right direction for those looking to buy Australian Dollars. On Thursday early at 01:30am we have an inflation release from China and some unemployment data from Australia so those with an interest in AUD may wish to put some protection in place overnight as we may see some sharp movements out of office hours following this data being released.
On Friday at 01:30am we will also have the Reserve bank of Australia monetary policy statement and this may also lead to a volatile AUD overnight as it may give an indication as to how they plan to tackle the strong AUD (which cannot be doing exports too good) and also whether we may see a change in interest rates in the coming months. personally I would not be surprised to see the AUD weaken a little overnight after this statement.
Sterling – Canadian Dollar
Not too much out of note for Canada this week and once again the U.K data will be most important however those looking to buy or sell Canadian Dollars must take note of unemployment data due out on Friday at 13:30pm. Expectations are for unemployment to have crept up a little so we may see the pound gain a little ground at the end of the weeks trading.
In general much depends on what we see from the U.K economic data releases this week but I would hope to see Sterling battle back against most majors over the week. If Team GB is anything to go by then confidence in the U.K is slowly creeping up and personally I don’t feel the current recession is as bad as is being made out, as normal the u.k media is doom and gloom though which tends to bring everyone down with it so I would hope to see better data results in the coming months.
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Pound Euro fairly flat today – Further drop against U.S Dollar and a welcome climb against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand
The Pound has had a mixed day of trading so far staying fairly flat against the Euro during a week of gains, dropping away against the Dollar as investors plunge back into safer havens.
We also have seen fairly good gains against the Australian Dollar following poor unemployment figures overnight and the prospect of seeing poor GDP figures for China tomorrow, which may lead to a great end to the week for those in the process of emigrating either currently or in the near future.
The Pound has once again had a poor run against the so called ‘riskier currencies’ such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand and could really do with making a fightback, tomorrow hopefully may be the catalyst for this. Personally I feel we aren’t far away from another front page European ‘crisis’ subject and that alone may push these currency pairings back in the right direction again as half the reason we have been held back is due to the fact that although all has far from gone quiet on the European crisis front there is a little bit of certainty surrounding the situation.
Global certainty tends to strengthen the riskier currencies and can weaken the Dollar so another big spanner thrown in the works surrounding the European situation could lead to further Dollar strength and a buying opportunity for those with an interest in AUD, NZD and CAD.
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Sterling set for a tough week? Pound Sterling Forecast against a basket of currencies inclusive of Euro, Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Swiss Franc and South African Rand
The Pound may be set for a tough week this week with numerous data releases out including our Public Sector Net Borrowing figures, Mortgage Approval Data and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures.
Today is fairly quiet on the data front however don’t be surprised if the Europeans throw a spanner into the works as quite honestly they could release absolutely anything at absolutely any time and this could affect all major currencies as it will effect investors attitude to risk and as regular readers will be aware investor’s attitude to risk can lead to quite a bit of market volatility. Should we see more bad news from Europe then you would imagine attitude to risk will suffer and the Dollar will benefit being a safe haven whilst the riskier currencies may weaken.
Should all stay quiet on the European front then the Dollar may weaken back a little and the riskier currencies such as AUD, NZD and ZAR could continue their push back against Sterling. Of course any major economic releases that are much better or worse than expected may counter act this.
For the Pound this week the action starts Tomorrow morning with Public Sector Net Borrowing, this data is essentially an indication as to how much new debt the U.K Government has obtained over the course of the month, a negative figure suggests that the U.K holds surplus, which may be seen as positive for the U.K and indeed the Pound. Of course if borrowing figures are up then the Pound may well take a further hit.
Wednesday brings us the U.K mortgage approval data which suggests how well, or badly the U.K housing market is performing, a lower figure is once again seen as a negative yet a rise in mortgage approvals can be seen as a positive, especially in the current climate!
Thursday has the potential to be the most volatile of days as we see GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures for the U.K which have been fairly poor of late and expectations are that the figure may not have changed by much. Personally I see a fairly flat week for the Pound with the potential to have a couple of fairly poor days should data releases be worse than expected.
If you have a currency transfer to carry out it may be prudent to consider your options and ensure that you have a proactive currency broker on your side. If you currently do not use a currency broker or you feel you could get a better price or level of service than you are currently getting then by all means feel free to email me directly and I will be happy to personally help you for any currency transfer from £1000 to multi million Pound transactions. I can be reached on email@example.com and i look forward to hearing from you.
Sterling hits a 3 and a half year high against Euro, has broken 1.60 against AUD broken 2.05 against the NZD and is still high against the USD – Time to buy at least some of your currency?
If you need to make a transfer into a foreign currency then now may be the ideal time to seriously consider your options. The Pound is the highest it has been against a basket of major currencies for over 35 months. If you have a larger sum to do it may be prudent to hedge your bets and look at securing half of your currency whilst rates are at such great levels.
We now have not only Economic problems but also political problems throughout Europe which will no doubt cause big issues in the coming weeks and months. Of course part of the reason that we will have seen rates move up so much of late is the markets reacting in advance so I would be surprised to see the markets completely rocket in the right direction, there may be a little further to go but it would be prudent to at least partly take advantage of this 3 and a half year high.
Fairly range bound of late and I think this pairing has been in the background with Europe and the ‘riskier currencies playing a much bigger part in the play. Most analysts are predicting the Dollar to strengthen back as it is seen as a safer haven in times of low global confidence and I’m sure we will see plenty of that in the near term.
Sterling Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand
Many that have moved overseas in the past year or so will be watching these currency pairs with a smile on their face, and those selling to bring back into Sterling may wish to seriously consider their options in case this trend continues.
Personally it is a coin toss – Further rate cuts in Australia may lead to further weakness for the AUD however some of this move may be in anticipation of that. European problems will weigh these currencies down and I’m fairly sure there are more of those to come. The one thing to remember though is not to get greedy. Those who contacted me initially saying they would love to get 1.60 should look at putting in a limit order at
If you have an upcoming transfer to make be it large or small, private or corporate then feel free to get in touch with me directly and I will be happy to help you not only get a better rate than you are currently receiving from your bank but a much better level of service too. I can be reached on firstname.lastname@example.org
Both France and Greece are the talking point this morning following election results that may now weigh heavilly on the Euro in the coming weeks and months.
France’s new socialist Presidente Francois Hollande and his anti austerity agenda may now lead to huge disruption for progress in this European debt crisis as he appears to be against Angela Merkel and previous President Sarkozy’s measures and this may cause political troubles throughout Europe. political instability is one of the main factors that can effect a currency and it would not surprise me to see the Euro continue to struggle (not crash but struggle).
This will cause jitters for the ‘riskier’ currencies such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand and may lead to further weakness for these particular currencies this week. once again actual economic data appears to be in the background and political problems are not only front page news on currency websites but front page news accross the world.
I can see this really causing big problems (not quite world war three) but not a million miles away. If you are selling a property in Europe and are worried about rate movements then perhaps you are right, I still somehow have clients holding off and waiting for rates to improve and if you look at the facts and figures then it would not surprise me to see rates stay like this or get worse for a period of time.
If you are concerned about the current market conditions and want to have an experienced and friendly currency broker on your side throughout this crisis then feel free to contact me directly email@example.com and i will be more than happy to assist you in timing (however I cannot directly advise) and getting you the best rate when you do book out your currency. I reguarly better clients rates by enough to make it worthwhile changing over and will be happy to add you to my ever growing list of clients.
Pound Sterling climbs against USD as investors prepare to take on risk once more AUD, NZD, ZAR benefit!
The Pound has once again made gains against the USD over the start of this week as all seems relatively quiet on the European front (not for long though i’m sure) and global attitude towards risk appears to be increasing off the back of this.
In turn, this means that investors tend to pull funds out of their perceived ‘safer currencies’ such as the USD (gold is also priced in Dollars) decreasing the demand for this currency and also making it cheaper to buy.
We have also seen the ‘riskier currencies’ such as the South African Rand, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar make gains from this as demand for them increases.
My view is that more European troubles are sure to come to front page news again it is just a case of when…. As and when this does happen we should see things turn around again… Those looking to sell Dollars or Sell AED Dirhams (pegged to the Dollar) will have a selling opportunity and those buying AUD, NZD or ZAR will have a great buying opportunity (compared to recent times anyway) however the European Central bank would all be great poker players as they are all very good at keeping their cards close to their chest so we may have a little wait on our hands first.
If you have a currency transfer to make be it buying or selling then feel free to contact me directly firstname.lastname@example.org for a direct comparison against your currenct bank or broker and I will do everything I can to beat it by enough to make it worth you using me instead as there is always room for improvement in my experience.
Pound Sterling Forecast – The week ahead sees some important data releases for the Pound, Euro, U.S Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar… What is out and when?
This week is sure to be a lively one, below is what is due out and what I feel may happen:
This morning – Inflationary data has been released for the U.K (09:30am)
13:30pm Retail Sales (USA) – One for those with an interest in the Dollar this afternoon with Retail Sales figures being released. Many top analysts still believe the Dollar will launch a fight back in the coming weeks and months, and some believe the Dollar will have a strong year (making it more expensive to buy). Expectations for this release is an improvement and personally I feel the release will be good, but not quite as good as expected however this isn’t a huge release so no major market movement expected from this one.
21:45 Retail Sales (New Zealand) – This one will effect the ever strong New Zealand Dollar, which has had a great few months (Not so great for Britons with money to shift over there). The data covers the last quarter of 2011 and expectations are for a drop, this may lead to a short term spike against the new Zealand Dollar however in my opinion unless we see real global uncertainty again soon the the NZD will stay reasonably strong.
23:30 Consumer Confidence (Australia) – A late release for Australian Dollar followers which will show the confidence levels of individuals have in the economy and how things are going in Australia, many clients I speak to say all is not as rosy as is being made out over in Australia unless you are in the mining industry, but lets see what this brings, personally much like the NZD I feel the AUD will stay strong unless something major happens worldwide.
Tomorrow 08:00am (German GDP) – A key indicator as to how the largest economy involved in the Euro is performing, this is followed up at 10:00 by GDP data for the European Monetary Union. A bad release for Germany may indicate that the worst is yet to come as the EMU is expected to release a negative figure for Q4 of 2011.
Tomorrow 09:30am (U.K Unemployment) – A flurry of unemployment data for the U.K which is not expected to be too good (yet again). If you have Pounds and wish to buy a foreign currency it may be prudent to seriously consider your options before this release.
10:30am – (Mervyn king’s speech) Mr King seems to be very good at making the Pound weaken, whether it be on purpose or not and those that have tracked Sterling over the past few years will indeed be well aware of this, certainly one to watch with interest… In my opinion Wednesday will be the most volatile day and I expect it to be poor for Sterling.
Thursday – Overnight (Australian Unemloyment Rate) No huge changes to unemployment expected in Australia however as always expect the unexpected in this market!
09:00 – ECB monthly Report - The European Central bank will release their monthly report on Thursday morning, this will give an indication as to how they plan to deal with the economy in the coming monthand what has happened in the past month, we may see a hint as to whether or not we can expect another cut in interest rates as has been mentioned of late, if this is mentioned with an indication for next month, we may see Euro weakness following it.
Friday 09:30am – U.K Retail Sales (January) How well did the retail sector perform after Christmas, I feel the U.K tightened their belts during this period and it would not surprise me to see another poor start to the day for the Pound.
12:00pm Canadian Inflation data – The Bank of Canada release inflation data at noon, slight rise to 0% is expected and any change from this could lead to movements either way… again we do appear to be range bound against this currency however I feel that sub 1.55 is just around the corner unless the U.K can bring us an unexpected good week.
13:30pm U.S Inflation- Inflation time for the States to round off the week, personally I feel this won’t be a big one for the markets unless something major is thrown into the mix.
In short I think the Pound will find it tough this week, if you have a bank to bank transfer to make from sterling to a major currency or from a major currency to Sterling then contact me directly email@example.com to make sure you really are getting the best exchange rates for your transfer along with the highest level of customer service and efficiency. I look forward to hearing from you.