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Two Important considerations forecasting Pound Sterling Exchange Rates

Good afternoon Readers! The pound is at some truly excellent levels currently, levels that should not be easily dismissed in the hope of much better rates. If you need to buy or sell currency there are a few pointers to note that will make your life easier and your wallet heavier!

Accept that you will not get the ‘top’ or the ‘bottom’ of the market. All too often I am managing one of my client’s currency exposure and they base all their calculations on a recent high. So for example selling Euros to buy pounds at 1.19 or buying Euros with pounds at 1.22. If you do this you are likely to be disappointed. Speak to me about what is a more realistic rate to achieve by calling 01494 787 478 or why not email me jmw@currencies.co.uk

Do your research! There can be major difference between the exchange rates offered by banks and currency brokers like us. But there can also be major differences between the rates offered by different brokers. Here at poundsterlingforecast.com we seek to undercut other brokers and on large volumes the differences can be significant.

GBPEUR is currently 1,2131, GBPUSD is 1.6751, GBPAUD is 1.7921 and GBPCAD is 1.8261

Getting the best exchange rate on a large volume currency transfer (£10,000 +) makes a big difference to the amount you receive. If you are transferring a sum of this size and want to learn the current forecast please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk for the very best rates and latest news on what will move your rate!

Jonathan

 

Quiet day for the pound with focus on US non-farm payroll figures at 13:30 (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has pushed through 1.21 this morning continuing on from yesterday afternoons post interest rate decision from the ECB. Yesterday there was a outside chance that Draghi may have cut interest rates to counteract the deflationary pressures within the Euro Zone, however he refrained from this but commented action would have to be taken should deflationary pressures continue. He was a little unclear as to what policies would be used with him suggesting ‘extra measures’ would be used. What these would be is a little unclear but he did not rule out printing of money and an interest cut still has to be a real option. This is likely to keep pressure on the Euro and could result in some good buy opportunities for those that are on the ball. Anyone selling may wish to act sooner rather than later.

Today there is little data of note from the UK and Europe today and focus for the pound will be industrial and manufacturing figures on Tuesday morning released at 09:30.

Looking at the US dollar and this afternoons non-farm payroll will be the focus. Data will be released at 13:30 and can cause some significant shifts on the market across the board as it is a clear indication as to how the US economy is performing and can have an impact on global risk appetite. This can cause shifts for the riskier currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR. Should you have a trade to arrange with any of these currencies non-farms could be one to avoid.

Should you have an upcoming fx transfer to arrange and you would like assistance getting the best deal on the market then contact the office on 01494 787478. As a specialist foreign exchange provider we have multiple contracts available to help maximise your exchange or protect yourself against adverse market movement. To discuss the current market and the service we provide then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Will The Pound Bounce Back?

The pound has dropped against most majors this week so many clients are asking will it bounce back?  In my view this all depends on which currency pair you are looking at as whilst there are some factors affecting sterling directly, much of the movement can be attributed to factors affecting other currencies, so to this end it is worth considering them separately.

Sterling Overview

There has actually been very little negative data out to affect the pound of late although the Trade Balance this morning was not particularly pretty viewing.  Some of the negative sentiment surrounds MPC Member Charles Bean’s comments about the value of the pound; “Any further appreciation of sterling, which has risen almost 10% in  trade-weighted terms since March, would not be particularly helpful in terms of  facilitating a rebalancing towards net exports.” Probably just an attempt to talk down the value of the pound rather than a sign the BofE wont be raising rates in 2015, so I suspect as long as UK economic data improves, the pound will be realatively well supported to avoid significant further losses.  The recent flooding and resulting damage may have damaged the economy in the short term, but the resulting clear up and construction effort could actually provide a big boost to the building trade and provide an unintentional “Plan B” of sorts.

GBP USD

The Dollar still remains very weak as the pace of the recovery in the US still remains weak so the issue of tapering is still not being fully resolved by a cautious Fed.  The debt ceiling and political issues are also hampering any clear forecasts but I still feel that once momentum in the US picks up and we get closer to seeing potential interest rate rises, then I suspect the Dollar will make some small headway against the pound.  I think the Dollar will fare much better this year against the Euro but that is another story. If you have a GBP USD transfer and would like assistance then feel free to email me at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help, or call me on 01494 787 478.

GBP EUR

The Euro has made huge gains against the pound since last Thursday after Mario Draghi and the ECB didn’t do anything regarding interest rates (or any other unusual measures), citing the economic situation was gradually improving.  The move took speculators by surprise seeing a surge in confidence for the single currency shooting up 2% against sterling since Thursday.  However, whilst inflation may have improved slightly in Europe, it still remains very low, and both growth and unemployment are hugely worrying factors – unemployment rates in Greece rose this week to 27.5%!  I feel the pace is too slow and that the ECB may have their hand forced into further action later in the year, and even if it isn’t, the prospect of interest rate rises in Europe still look many years away so it may not be long before investors move away from the Euro looking for better returns.  With the UK forecast to raise rate in 2015 and the US not far behind, the Euro could soon become a little isolated.  To this end I see current exchange rates as a great time to sell Euros, before it weakens off again in the coming months.  If you are buying or selling property in Europe then timing your exchange rate could be the key to getting the best deal on currency transfers so feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk if you would like assistance.  If you would prefer to call I am available on 01494 787 478.

GBP NZD

As forecast the RBNZ raised interest rates this week and the Kiwi strengthened a touch further as a result.  I suspect this move will keep the NZD looking pretty robust with investors showing increased risk appetite.  To this end I don’t see the pound making much headway against the Kiwi in the short term barring a collapse in Asian Pacific confidence or some form of intervention by the RBNZ should the Kiwi strengthen too much (unlikely any time soon if they have just hiked in my view).

GBP AUD

Whilst many people have forecast a drop for AUD I think further falls for the Aussie are unlikely and have been saying this for some time.  Jobs figures the other day showed an improvement, the RBA have been very clear that no more imminet action is likely, plus the pound has gained so rapidly in value versus the Aussie last year that at some point it was always going to peak.  Global confidence seems to be gradually returning which tends to help the higher yield currencies despite the on-going issue of US tapering, and slight wobbles in China.  Rather than holding out for huge gains, I would assess how soon I need the money.  I you can afford to wait long term then it may be worth holding off a while and targeting somewhere 1.87+ but in the next few months I would think anything over 1.85 is a good buy rather than being too greedy.  If you are selling Aussie Dollars, then a positive spike may not be out the question over the next few weeks with 1.82 my guide.  Moving Down Under?  Would you like help with the currency?  Email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk or call me on 01494 787 478

What is driving the markets today? Getting the best deal on your foreign exchange (Mike Vaughan)

Will the ECB cut rates?

With the pound having lost value in excess of 2% against the Euro recently, those clients looking to secure funds in excess of 1.21 and beyond have had somewhat of a shock in the last week. For me I feel this dip is temporary and some of the softer data sets from the UK may be as a direct result of the recent adverse weather conditions in the UK and it will be interesting to see what impact this will have on official GDP data at the end of the month.

Looking at data sets to watch out for in the coming week, yesterday’s ECB monthly report indicated that the latest ECB projections, now covering the period up to the end of 2016, support earlier expectations of a prolonged period of low inflation, with levels forecast to naturally closer to the banks 2% target. However should the levels of inflation remain low, and certainly below the current 0.8% then Draghi may have no option but to look at cutting interest rates to combat deflationary pressures, this is something that is likely to keep pressure on the Euro.

For me the next major impact for this pair, particularly from the pounds point of view, will be next Wednesday’s Bank of England minutes. This will give a full review of the latest interest rate meeting from the Bank of England’s MPC and clues as to when they may consider raising interest rates. Any hint towards this and it could prove a positive morning for the pound.

Also watch out for tomorrow’s trade balance figures for the UK.. Expectation is for -£8.7bn, any improvement on this and this could lend support to the pound. Figures are released at 09:30.

US dollar

Recently cable (GBP/USD) has seen a slight move in favour of the dollar pushing back into the 1.65s for the first time in over a month, is this the start of a reversal in fortunes for the dollar?

Today’s retail sales figures came in at a positive 0.3% slightly improved from the forecast of 0.2% and way up on last month’s -0.6% figure. As a result the dollar has weakened, a surprise based on this release, and it would appear the moves have come as investors pulling out of the dollar and are looking at riskier currencies such as the Aussie and Kiwi.

Tomorrow is relatively quiet for the dollar with PPI inflation figures at 12:30, with the next major data release Wednesday next week being the FED interest rate decision and accompanying statement.

AUD/NZD

Sterling’s unpredictable run against these currencies continued today as the pound posted losses in excess of 0.5% against both. Moves came following strong employment figures on Wednesday night and still appear to be benefiting from increased risk appetite from investors following the ECB’s reluctance to cut interest rates to ease deflationary pressures in Europe.

This move has been even more surprising considering the softer data from China with industrial production falling from 9.5% to 8.6% and retails sales down from 13.5% to 11.8%, with the Australian economy heavily reliant on Chinese demand for their raw materials poor data like this would usually cause a large sell off for these currencies again highlighting how unpredictable this current market is.

To run through current market trends and to see what we can offer your for your pending currency transfer please email me with a brief overview of your requirement and I will contact you to run the through the currency service we provide. Please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling has a mixed end to the week. Get the best deal on your foreign exchange (Mike Vaughan)

Michael Vaughan

Michael Vaughan

Sterling has had a solid day to end the week against the Australian Dollar and US dollar but posted heavy losses against the Euro. The pounds losses against the Euro cam about following better than forecast inflation figures. Since reaching a one year high of 1.2270 in January, the pound has since struggled to keep consistent momentum against the single currency remaining range bound between 1.20-1.22 throughout the course of February. Again this pattern has continued with levels testing 1.22 this morning before falling below 1.21.

Recently deflation has been a major concern for Europe. This is decrease in the general price level of goods and services and is viewed as real concern in a modern economy because it increases the real value of debt, and may aggravate recessions and lead to a deflationary spiral. This has been putting pressure on the Euro, however with this morning figures showing inflation levels had not fallen at the pace many had expected has taken some of the pressure off Draghi and the ECB. If the figures had been weaker it may have left Draghi with little option but to cut interest rates, however this scenario is now less likely and hence the stronger showing for the Euro.

Looking at the USD, todays GDP release was as expected falling from 2% to 1.3% month on month. This along with Janet Yellen’s speech yesterday has pushed cable (GBP/USD) though 1.67 and just a cent below a four year high. Long term I believe the dollar will find support and would look for a push back towards 1.60. It will take a little time for Yellen to impose herself and a continuation of the FED’s approach on QE should lend support to the greenback long term. For anyone buying US dollars the current market is showing some value.

Should you have an upcoming bank to bank money exchange to arrange and you would like assistance with your transfer then please get in touch. When making your decision about the timing of your transfer it is best to get as much information as possible. To find out more about the currency service we provide and the various contracts we can offer then please get in touch on 01494 787478. Alternatively email me with a brief overview of your particular requirement and I will happily get in touch to run through your options and to discuss the current market trends. Email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling falls following inflation figures, with the Bank of England and FOMC minutes set to dominate tomorrow (Mike Vaughan)

Michael Vaughan

Michael Vaughan

Sterling exchange rates posted losses against most major currencies today following the UK’s latest inflation figures. Levels fell to 1.9% and below the Bank of England’s target level of 2%. This has made chances of the bank raising interest rates even less likely in the short to medium term and would suggest the record low levels of 0.5% will remain for some time. This has put pressure on sterling with levels reaching a low of 1.2135 against the Euro and 1.6655 against the US dollar. This could be a real opportunity for buyers of sterling as with unemployment figures and the important Bank of England minutes released at 09:30 tomorrow morning the pound could easily see a reversal.

Looking at other data of note look out for inflation figures from the US at 13:30 tomorrow followed by the FOMC minutes at 19:00 from the FED’s interest rate decision earlier this month. As with their UK counterpart the FOMC minutes will give insight as to future monetary policy from the FED and in particular any changes to policy since Janet Yellen has taken over from Ben Bernanke as the head of the Federal Reserve. For me it is likely they will continue with their stance on QE and look at reducing levels by $10bn per month. This I am sure will lend support to the US dollar in the months to come and may also create a shift for currencies such as the AUD and NZD.

As a specialist foreign exchange broker we offer multiple contracts to help our private and corporate clients maximize their fx exposure. This can include the use of forward, stop/loss and limit orders to name a few. When making a decision about the timing of your exchange these contracts can prove invaluable, particularly during times of market volatility. Should you wish to discuss the currency service we provide in more detail then please call the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike using mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling slides against the Euro and New Zealand Dollar. Best rates to sell Euros and NZD. (Ben Amrany)

Ben Amrany

Ben Amrany

Last week was a good end for the pound against many of the major currencies spiking to 1.22 against the Euro and up to 2.04 against the NZD which was the highest rate since June 2012.

Today we have seen the pound fall against both of the above currencies after positive manufacturing data out of Germany with sterling back down to a low of 1.2045 against the Euro and     2.0080 against the Kiwi Dollar.

For those of you looking at selling the pound we may see a fall for sterlin over the course of this week should the data continue to be positive for the Euro zone and negative for the UK. The one thing that would concern me if you are buying the Euro, Kiwi Dollar or any of teh majors were comments by the Governor of the Bank of England. He stated they have to look at all factors of the economy and not just the unemployment rate before deciding when to look at hiking interest rates. Thsi gives them scope to choose when they wish to raise interest rates.

This week’s interest rate decision will now be closely watched by the markets to see how many members vote for an interest rate hike when the minutes are released two weeks later. If the Governor tries to talk down interest rates any further then you may find sterling dip lower. My prediction is that we won’t see a rate hike until 2015 so we may have a long time to go before we see real strength for the pound.

If you are looking at selling Euros to buy GBP then we may get a good window of opportunity to secure your funds this week if the market continues the trand seen today.

If you are concerned about the BoE comments that the pound may weaken and are considering buying your currency then feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk and i can explain the options available to you to minimise your risk to currency fluctuations.

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk

 

Poor start for the pound, whats in store for the rest of the week? (Mike Vaughan)

Michael Vaughan

Michael Vaughan

Sterling has started the trading week poorly showing sharp losses against most majors, notably 1.3% against the AUD and NZD, 0.6% against the US dollar and 0.45% against the Euro. With little data out today from the pounds point of view its seems market sentiment is continuing from last week’s manufacturing and industrial production figures in which the data was softer than expected. Likewise the AUD, NZD, CAD (commodity based currencies) have performed well since Fridays weak US non-farm payroll figures, as this suggests the FEDs stance on tapering will still be one of wait and see. With the FED highlighting unemployment as a key area of focus, the weaker figures on Friday suggests ‘tapering’ will stay on hold for now. This could be good news for sellers of these respective currencies, however I for one feel this trend will be short lived and would still expect the pound to return greater value against the AUD and NZD in the weeks to come.

Looking to the rest of the week tomorrow sees a much busier day for the pound with inflation figures at 09:30, this will be followed by retail sales figures on Friday also scheduled for 09:30. Retail sales figures will be of particular interest and are forecast to show a slight improvement and should set the pound on course for a stronger end to the week.

Other data of note will be US retail sales figures tomorrow afternoon at 13:30. Month on month figures are forecast to show a heavy drop and could cause the dollar to weaken tomorrow afternoon. Euro buyers and sellers watch out for industrial production figures at 10:00 tomorrow, and the ECB monthly report and inflation data at 09:00 and 10:00 respectively on Thursday.

Finally those with an interest in the Australian Dollar look out for employment data overnight Thursday.

Should you have an upcoming exchange to arrange and you would like to discuss the currency service we provide and how we can help you achieve a better exchange rate than major banks and other institutions then please contact the office on +44 (0) 1494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

Are we nearly back to ‘normal’ exchange rates?

It would finally appear exchange rates are returning to some kind of normality following five years of unprecedented levels. Is this a flash in the pan spike that should be capitalised on or is it the start of a future trend?

Sterling has been performing well lately but the gulf between what the Bank of England says and the market’s own projections must be closed at some point. I personally would not be betting against the Bank of England. As warranted as an interest rate hike may become it will present a major problem for home-owner’s paying mortgages and could potentially tip the scales on a housing crash. The last thing the Bank will wish to do is rock the boat too much.

Interesting

Tomorrow is the latest Unemployment report for the Eurozone alongside Retail figures. Thursday we have the ECB decision and Press Conference which usually moves the market. If you have any Euro transfers making me aware before Thursday may be sensible as this can be a volatile day!

The Fed is now embarking on the QE taper but market reaction has so far been muted with no major USD gains. Arguably the Fed had given the market plenty of time to adjust to the taper and as such the market is not so far showing any adverse reaction.

Friday is the US Non-Farm Payroll decision which could further help the USD to claw back some ground. In the absence of any negative UK data GBPUSD looks set to remain above 1.60 for the time being.

Let us not forget where we are. Sterling continues to perform well holding ground against a range of currencies, now is a very good time to assess your position if you expect to require currency in the coming months. The interbank rate on GBPEUR is over 1.20 and GBPUSD is at 1.64. GBPAUD is at 1.84, GBPCAD is 1.74 and GBPZAR is 17.48. These are truly remarkable levels when you look at some of the lower rates of the last few years!

These currencies saw some of the biggest losses in 2013 and it would appear that slowly they are returning to more ‘normal’ levels following the financial crisis.

With the mining boom over and the Australian government actively seeking a weaker AUD, it would seem to me wise to sell the Aussie on dips in your favour. The same is true of the Rand which with gold and mining stocks suffering is under further pressure.

The New Zealand dollar could actually strengthen this year if we see an interest rate hike there, although the Bank of Canada are seeking looser monetary policy which should keep the Loonie on the back foot.

We are here to  assist in the planning and execution of any international money transfers you need to make (including bringing funds back to the UK or Europe). Please feel free to contact me highlighting any situation or upcoming requirements to which I am sure I can offer some options, useful information and of course our award winning exchange rates.

Jonathan Watson, jmw@currencies.co.uk

Or call (+44) 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with me Jonathan.

I wish all our readers a very healthy, happy and successful 2014!

UK GDP as expected, will US GDP follow suit? (Mike Vaughan)

UK GDP data this morning was as expected but has seen the pound lose ground against a host of currencies. Focus will now pass onto US GDP data this afternoon (13:30) with figures expected to show a strong improvement from 0.6% to 2.0%. Should levels be as expected and with the US showing positives sign of recovery Wednesday’s decision to taper QE could now gather more pace as we head into the New Year. This could lend support to the greenback and I would look for the value of currencies such as the AUD and NZD to weaken. For anyone looking at GBP/EUR watch out for Euro Zone consumer confidence at 15:00.

With the Christmas period fast approaching and thinner trading levels creating often significant shifts in the market make sure you are in a position to act on your trade. Our operating hours during the Christmas period will be as follows:

 

-          23rd December – normal operating hours 08:30 – 18:00

-          24th December – depending on trading levels office may close early

-          27th December – depending on trading levels office may close early

-          30th December – depending on trading levels office may close early

-          31st December – depending on trading levels office may close early

-          2nd January – normal operating hours 08:30 – 18:00

 

As you can see our office will be open to assist clients during the Christmas break so should be looking at a short term position and would like discuss the service we offer then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

I would also like to take this opportunity to wish everyone a very happy Christmas and prosperous New Year.

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