Tag Archives: nzd

Pound Sterling Forecast – Upcoming data that may affect your exchange rate (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has had a funny week against most majors, remaining in the 1.34-1.35 range against the Euro, (albeit with some quite volatile moments) gaining ground back against the Dollar and pushing higher against the antipodean currencies (AUD,NZD,ZAR) even seeing the Sterling/Australian Dollar rate testing the level of 2.

One important matter that could really lead to an extremely lively start to the week is the issue with Greece. Whispers are that they are close to securing a debt deal which may bring a little certainty back to the Eurozone and confidence to the Euro, which in turn may lead to Euro strength at the start of the week.

Overnight on Monday night we also have the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) meeting minutes from their last interest rate decision which may give indications as to what the next move is and could really give the Australian Dollar  some fairly sharp movements out of hours.

If you have been waiting to buy your Australian Dollars at a rate of 2 then a limit order may be a sensible approach. This is where you can set an order to buy automatically if the achievable rate becomes 2 or better and can be really handy as data comes out from both economies day and night so it means that any sharp movements will be taken advantage of on your behalf. If you feel that this type of order may be beneficial to you then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get back to you personally.

Tuesday will bring inflation data for the U.K which has been a fairly important talking point for Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney over the past few months as the figure continues to drop steadily with major thanks to falling oil prices. An even lower figure will possibly weaken Sterling off a little as concerns of deflation will no doubt rise and although yesterday Carney said in his inflation report that rates would not rise until at least 2016 this could still just concrete that thought a little more.

An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned and a drop in rates negative so whenever an interest rate hike is pushed back you can see a currency drop in value.

If you are looking to exchange the Pound into any currency or exchange any currency back into Sterling then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do along with a contact number and I will be happy to get in touch.

 

 

Greek elections lead to further Euro weakness – Dollar breaks 1.50 (Daniel Wright)

Greek elections show Syrizia victory – Further Euro weakness

Well we have certainly seen an extremely busy start to the year as far as the currency markets go and this weekend did not fail to add to the drama.

Yesterday Greece voted in favour of the far left group Syrizia who have been saying throughout the campaign that they would aim to re-negotiate the Greek debt package. On top of this they have also suggested even looking to leave the Eurozone which would cause even further problems  in an already stumbling economy.

What this brings is yet further uncertainty to the Euro both politically and in an economic sense which can tend to weaken a currency fairly significantly.

If you also consider the fact that it was only last week that the Eurozone introduced a huge QE (Quantitative Easing) plan then it is absolutely no surprise at all that the Euro has found itself well and truly out of fashion and has weakened significantly this year against Sterling and the Dollar.

As it stands it would cost almost £8,500 less to buy €200,000 today than it would have cost at the turn of the year which is certainly nothing to be sniffed at.

If you are looking to purchase a property overseas this year and you want to take advantage of current buying levels then there is a great option available to you known as a forward contract. This useful contract option allows you to lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to a year in advance, paying merely a small deposit initially and then the balance on or before whichever date has been agreed, this is absolutely vita if you are working to a fairly tight budget. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a contact number and I will be more than happy to call you personally.

Dollar breaks 1.50 – Antipodean weakness

Trading on Friday also saw Sterling drop through the 1.50 mark against the Dollar and I personally would not be surprised to see this run continue. In times of global uncertainty the Dollar can quite often become the main benefactor and it appears that this is happening again.  On top of this the antipodean and perceived ‘riskier’ currencies (AUD, NZD and ZAR) are starting to weaken off again.

With Europe finally showing huge cracks appearing and more uncertainty than England’s batsmen in the cricket, along with terribly sad news over the weekend that Islamic state have now potentially killed a Japanese hostage  there is a huge shift in global attitude to risk so a flight to safety to the Dollar is well and truly underway.

GDP figure for the U.K due out on Tuesday

Apart from the fallout from one of the most important weeks in the history of the Euro one key piece of data for the U.K is due out on Tuesday morning at 09:30am. The release is our GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figure for the last quarter of 2015. GDP basically measures how much an economy grew or shrank during a specific period and expectations are for the quarter to have shown a slight drop from 0.7% to 0.6% so any change to this may lead to an extremely volatile day for the Pound to add to what is lined up to be an exceptionally busy week.

Sterling report and forecast

GBP EUR The Pound has still remained fairly range bound against the Euro over the past week of trading even with the vastly expected interest rate cut from the European Central bank yesterday afternoon. I would imagine this cut would have already been priced into the market. Sterling Euro exchange rates are still very close to a 16 month high so if you are looking to send money overseas for a property purchase or any other reason, then now is still a great time to buy.

GBP USD Again fairly static, the Pound has failed to make any major movements against the Dollar throughout the week, making minor gains yesterday following the ECB announcement.

We do have U.S Non-Farm payroll data due out today at 13:30pm which can actually be quite a large market mover. Non-Farm Payroll data measures the number of people in Non-agricultural employment over in the States and can actually have an effect on all major currencies as it affects global attitude to risk so this is one to watch out for.

GBP CHF The Swiss Franc took a bit of a hit during the course of trading yesterday afternoon due to the ECB announcement and moved by over 1% creating a small buying opportunity. Indeed the rate has already come all the way back down which still suggests that the Swiss Franc is well in favour so may come back a little in the coming weeks.

GBP AUD Seemingly at a pivotal point of 1.80 at present, the Pound and Australian Dollar are having a battle which is much less one sided than the Ashes. Personally I still think the Pound has gains to make in the coming months however this is one to approach with a little caution as calls for AUD weakness by the RBA and Government do not quite seem as rife as a few months back.

GBP NZD Sterling has made good gains against the New Zealand Dollar recently edging closer to the psychological level of 2 NZD to the Pound. Personally I would be tempted at placing a limit order at this level if I had any currency exchange to carry out involving buying New Zealand Dollars. A limit order is where you can set a particular level that you wish to achieve and should this level become available at any point 24 hours a day then the currency is bought out automatically for you, very handy with a currency pairing that can make sharp moves overnight!

GBP ZAR The Pound has edged closer to 18 in the last week or so, this currency pairing really is moving around a lot on a day to day basis though so you must be wary that within the matter of a few days the exchange rate has been moving by quite a few per cent.

Data out next week to watch out for:

Tuesday  

Industrial and Manufacturing figures for the U.K @9.30am

NIESR GDP Estimate @ 3pm

Wednesday

U.K Unemployment figures @ 09:30am

New Zealand Interest Rate Decision @ 10:00pm

Thursday

Australian Unemployment figures @ 02:30am

If you have a requirement in the future but you do not yet have the full availability of funds you can book out a forward contract. This is where you can book a rate out for up to a year in advance with just a small deposit, removing the risk of the currency market making your purchase any more expensive in the future.

This is ideal if you are in the process of buying a property overseas as you can know exactly how much the property is going to cost you today and eliminate the risk of the Pound dropping away again and missing out on this great opportunity.

If you feel I could be of use to you for any upcoming currency exchanges then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to call you personally. The company I work for can better exchange rates of others and I pride myself on an efficient personal service.

Sterling hits close to 1.22 against the Euro and 1.69 against the US dollar (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has had a mixed day against the Euro hitting just shy of 1.22 following the release of the Euro Zone’s latest inflation figures that showed a further contraction to 0.7% down from the forecast figure of 0.8% and putting more pressure on the zone as a whole from deflation. This has created the best buy levels against the single currency in over a month and could be an opportunity for Euro buyers.

Looking at the US dollar and the pound has also had a strong day pushing through 1.69 against the greenback putting levels at the highest since August 2009. The US dollar took a hit as GDP figures earlier this afternoon disappointed coming in at 1.3% down from the forecast of 1.7% – this will make this afternoons FED interest rate decision and accompanying statement interesting viewing. Also look out for tomorrow’s initial jobless claims data and Friday’s non-farm payroll figures.

Looking at other currencies and the pound pushed through 1.82 against the Aussie Dollar and nearly 1.97 against the Kiwi Dollar.

To finish off the week the most important data from the UK in my view will be Friday’s PMI construction figures at 09:30. Expected to post a fall from 62.5 to 62 and could lead to tougher day  for sterling to close off what otherwise has been a good week from the pounds point of view.

If you have an upcoming bank to bank currency exchange to arrange and you would like further information on the currency service we provide then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Two Important considerations forecasting Pound Sterling Exchange Rates

Good afternoon Readers! The pound is at some truly excellent levels currently, levels that should not be easily dismissed in the hope of much better rates. If you need to buy or sell currency there are a few pointers to note that will make your life easier and your wallet heavier!

Accept that you will not get the ‘top’ or the ‘bottom’ of the market. All too often I am managing one of my client’s currency exposure and they base all their calculations on a recent high. So for example selling Euros to buy pounds at 1.19 or buying Euros with pounds at 1.22. If you do this you are likely to be disappointed. Speak to me about what is a more realistic rate to achieve by calling 01494 787 478 or why not email me jmw@currencies.co.uk

Do your research! There can be major difference between the exchange rates offered by banks and currency brokers like us. But there can also be major differences between the rates offered by different brokers. Here at poundsterlingforecast.com we seek to undercut other brokers and on large volumes the differences can be significant.

GBPEUR is currently 1,2131, GBPUSD is 1.6751, GBPAUD is 1.7921 and GBPCAD is 1.8261

Getting the best exchange rate on a large volume currency transfer (£10,000 +) makes a big difference to the amount you receive. If you are transferring a sum of this size and want to learn the current forecast please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk for the very best rates and latest news on what will move your rate!

Jonathan

 

Quiet day for the pound with focus on US non-farm payroll figures at 13:30 (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has pushed through 1.21 this morning continuing on from yesterday afternoons post interest rate decision from the ECB. Yesterday there was a outside chance that Draghi may have cut interest rates to counteract the deflationary pressures within the Euro Zone, however he refrained from this but commented action would have to be taken should deflationary pressures continue. He was a little unclear as to what policies would be used with him suggesting ‘extra measures’ would be used. What these would be is a little unclear but he did not rule out printing of money and an interest cut still has to be a real option. This is likely to keep pressure on the Euro and could result in some good buy opportunities for those that are on the ball. Anyone selling may wish to act sooner rather than later.

Today there is little data of note from the UK and Europe today and focus for the pound will be industrial and manufacturing figures on Tuesday morning released at 09:30.

Looking at the US dollar and this afternoons non-farm payroll will be the focus. Data will be released at 13:30 and can cause some significant shifts on the market across the board as it is a clear indication as to how the US economy is performing and can have an impact on global risk appetite. This can cause shifts for the riskier currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR. Should you have a trade to arrange with any of these currencies non-farms could be one to avoid.

Should you have an upcoming fx transfer to arrange and you would like assistance getting the best deal on the market then contact the office on 01494 787478. As a specialist foreign exchange provider we have multiple contracts available to help maximise your exchange or protect yourself against adverse market movement. To discuss the current market and the service we provide then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Will The Pound Bounce Back?

The pound has dropped against most majors this week so many clients are asking will it bounce back?  In my view this all depends on which currency pair you are looking at as whilst there are some factors affecting sterling directly, much of the movement can be attributed to factors affecting other currencies, so to this end it is worth considering them separately.

Sterling Overview

There has actually been very little negative data out to affect the pound of late although the Trade Balance this morning was not particularly pretty viewing.  Some of the negative sentiment surrounds MPC Member Charles Bean’s comments about the value of the pound; “Any further appreciation of sterling, which has risen almost 10% in  trade-weighted terms since March, would not be particularly helpful in terms of  facilitating a rebalancing towards net exports.” Probably just an attempt to talk down the value of the pound rather than a sign the BofE wont be raising rates in 2015, so I suspect as long as UK economic data improves, the pound will be realatively well supported to avoid significant further losses.  The recent flooding and resulting damage may have damaged the economy in the short term, but the resulting clear up and construction effort could actually provide a big boost to the building trade and provide an unintentional “Plan B” of sorts.

GBP USD

The Dollar still remains very weak as the pace of the recovery in the US still remains weak so the issue of tapering is still not being fully resolved by a cautious Fed.  The debt ceiling and political issues are also hampering any clear forecasts but I still feel that once momentum in the US picks up and we get closer to seeing potential interest rate rises, then I suspect the Dollar will make some small headway against the pound.  I think the Dollar will fare much better this year against the Euro but that is another story. If you have a GBP USD transfer and would like assistance then feel free to email me at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help, or call me on 01494 787 478.

GBP EUR

The Euro has made huge gains against the pound since last Thursday after Mario Draghi and the ECB didn’t do anything regarding interest rates (or any other unusual measures), citing the economic situation was gradually improving.  The move took speculators by surprise seeing a surge in confidence for the single currency shooting up 2% against sterling since Thursday.  However, whilst inflation may have improved slightly in Europe, it still remains very low, and both growth and unemployment are hugely worrying factors – unemployment rates in Greece rose this week to 27.5%!  I feel the pace is too slow and that the ECB may have their hand forced into further action later in the year, and even if it isn’t, the prospect of interest rate rises in Europe still look many years away so it may not be long before investors move away from the Euro looking for better returns.  With the UK forecast to raise rate in 2015 and the US not far behind, the Euro could soon become a little isolated.  To this end I see current exchange rates as a great time to sell Euros, before it weakens off again in the coming months.  If you are buying or selling property in Europe then timing your exchange rate could be the key to getting the best deal on currency transfers so feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk if you would like assistance.  If you would prefer to call I am available on 01494 787 478.

GBP NZD

As forecast the RBNZ raised interest rates this week and the Kiwi strengthened a touch further as a result.  I suspect this move will keep the NZD looking pretty robust with investors showing increased risk appetite.  To this end I don’t see the pound making much headway against the Kiwi in the short term barring a collapse in Asian Pacific confidence or some form of intervention by the RBNZ should the Kiwi strengthen too much (unlikely any time soon if they have just hiked in my view).

GBP AUD

Whilst many people have forecast a drop for AUD I think further falls for the Aussie are unlikely and have been saying this for some time.  Jobs figures the other day showed an improvement, the RBA have been very clear that no more imminet action is likely, plus the pound has gained so rapidly in value versus the Aussie last year that at some point it was always going to peak.  Global confidence seems to be gradually returning which tends to help the higher yield currencies despite the on-going issue of US tapering, and slight wobbles in China.  Rather than holding out for huge gains, I would assess how soon I need the money.  I you can afford to wait long term then it may be worth holding off a while and targeting somewhere 1.87+ but in the next few months I would think anything over 1.85 is a good buy rather than being too greedy.  If you are selling Aussie Dollars, then a positive spike may not be out the question over the next few weeks with 1.82 my guide.  Moving Down Under?  Would you like help with the currency?  Email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk or call me on 01494 787 478

What is driving the markets today? Getting the best deal on your foreign exchange (Mike Vaughan)

Will the ECB cut rates?

With the pound having lost value in excess of 2% against the Euro recently, those clients looking to secure funds in excess of 1.21 and beyond have had somewhat of a shock in the last week. For me I feel this dip is temporary and some of the softer data sets from the UK may be as a direct result of the recent adverse weather conditions in the UK and it will be interesting to see what impact this will have on official GDP data at the end of the month.

Looking at data sets to watch out for in the coming week, yesterday’s ECB monthly report indicated that the latest ECB projections, now covering the period up to the end of 2016, support earlier expectations of a prolonged period of low inflation, with levels forecast to naturally closer to the banks 2% target. However should the levels of inflation remain low, and certainly below the current 0.8% then Draghi may have no option but to look at cutting interest rates to combat deflationary pressures, this is something that is likely to keep pressure on the Euro.

For me the next major impact for this pair, particularly from the pounds point of view, will be next Wednesday’s Bank of England minutes. This will give a full review of the latest interest rate meeting from the Bank of England’s MPC and clues as to when they may consider raising interest rates. Any hint towards this and it could prove a positive morning for the pound.

Also watch out for tomorrow’s trade balance figures for the UK.. Expectation is for -£8.7bn, any improvement on this and this could lend support to the pound. Figures are released at 09:30.

US dollar

Recently cable (GBP/USD) has seen a slight move in favour of the dollar pushing back into the 1.65s for the first time in over a month, is this the start of a reversal in fortunes for the dollar?

Today’s retail sales figures came in at a positive 0.3% slightly improved from the forecast of 0.2% and way up on last month’s -0.6% figure. As a result the dollar has weakened, a surprise based on this release, and it would appear the moves have come as investors pulling out of the dollar and are looking at riskier currencies such as the Aussie and Kiwi.

Tomorrow is relatively quiet for the dollar with PPI inflation figures at 12:30, with the next major data release Wednesday next week being the FED interest rate decision and accompanying statement.

AUD/NZD

Sterling’s unpredictable run against these currencies continued today as the pound posted losses in excess of 0.5% against both. Moves came following strong employment figures on Wednesday night and still appear to be benefiting from increased risk appetite from investors following the ECB’s reluctance to cut interest rates to ease deflationary pressures in Europe.

This move has been even more surprising considering the softer data from China with industrial production falling from 9.5% to 8.6% and retails sales down from 13.5% to 11.8%, with the Australian economy heavily reliant on Chinese demand for their raw materials poor data like this would usually cause a large sell off for these currencies again highlighting how unpredictable this current market is.

To run through current market trends and to see what we can offer your for your pending currency transfer please email me with a brief overview of your requirement and I will contact you to run the through the currency service we provide. Please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling has a mixed end to the week. Get the best deal on your foreign exchange (Mike Vaughan)

Michael Vaughan

Michael Vaughan

Sterling has had a solid day to end the week against the Australian Dollar and US dollar but posted heavy losses against the Euro. The pounds losses against the Euro cam about following better than forecast inflation figures. Since reaching a one year high of 1.2270 in January, the pound has since struggled to keep consistent momentum against the single currency remaining range bound between 1.20-1.22 throughout the course of February. Again this pattern has continued with levels testing 1.22 this morning before falling below 1.21.

Recently deflation has been a major concern for Europe. This is decrease in the general price level of goods and services and is viewed as real concern in a modern economy because it increases the real value of debt, and may aggravate recessions and lead to a deflationary spiral. This has been putting pressure on the Euro, however with this morning figures showing inflation levels had not fallen at the pace many had expected has taken some of the pressure off Draghi and the ECB. If the figures had been weaker it may have left Draghi with little option but to cut interest rates, however this scenario is now less likely and hence the stronger showing for the Euro.

Looking at the USD, todays GDP release was as expected falling from 2% to 1.3% month on month. This along with Janet Yellen’s speech yesterday has pushed cable (GBP/USD) though 1.67 and just a cent below a four year high. Long term I believe the dollar will find support and would look for a push back towards 1.60. It will take a little time for Yellen to impose herself and a continuation of the FED’s approach on QE should lend support to the greenback long term. For anyone buying US dollars the current market is showing some value.

Should you have an upcoming bank to bank money exchange to arrange and you would like assistance with your transfer then please get in touch. When making your decision about the timing of your transfer it is best to get as much information as possible. To find out more about the currency service we provide and the various contracts we can offer then please get in touch on 01494 787478. Alternatively email me with a brief overview of your particular requirement and I will happily get in touch to run through your options and to discuss the current market trends. Email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling falls following inflation figures, with the Bank of England and FOMC minutes set to dominate tomorrow (Mike Vaughan)

Michael Vaughan

Michael Vaughan

Sterling exchange rates posted losses against most major currencies today following the UK’s latest inflation figures. Levels fell to 1.9% and below the Bank of England’s target level of 2%. This has made chances of the bank raising interest rates even less likely in the short to medium term and would suggest the record low levels of 0.5% will remain for some time. This has put pressure on sterling with levels reaching a low of 1.2135 against the Euro and 1.6655 against the US dollar. This could be a real opportunity for buyers of sterling as with unemployment figures and the important Bank of England minutes released at 09:30 tomorrow morning the pound could easily see a reversal.

Looking at other data of note look out for inflation figures from the US at 13:30 tomorrow followed by the FOMC minutes at 19:00 from the FED’s interest rate decision earlier this month. As with their UK counterpart the FOMC minutes will give insight as to future monetary policy from the FED and in particular any changes to policy since Janet Yellen has taken over from Ben Bernanke as the head of the Federal Reserve. For me it is likely they will continue with their stance on QE and look at reducing levels by $10bn per month. This I am sure will lend support to the US dollar in the months to come and may also create a shift for currencies such as the AUD and NZD.

As a specialist foreign exchange broker we offer multiple contracts to help our private and corporate clients maximize their fx exposure. This can include the use of forward, stop/loss and limit orders to name a few. When making a decision about the timing of your exchange these contracts can prove invaluable, particularly during times of market volatility. Should you wish to discuss the currency service we provide in more detail then please call the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike using mgv@currencies.co.uk

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