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Well dear readers, the pound has fallen considerably in 2016. According to Bank of England data the Pound Sterling TWI (Trade Weighted Index) has fallen by over 10% this year. Looking at all the events up ahead this trend could easily continue as other currencies find favour and investors dump the pound.
2016 was always going to be a tough year with the UK Referendum and Chinese market worries predicted to impact exchange rates. With the UK economy we have a number of worries to look out for including the lower GDP than the rest of the world and the strong likelihood of very low Inflation. This all points to a much weaker pound in 2016 than the last year!
Next week we have the latest UK Inflation and Unemployment data but there are other important releases from around the world which will impact GBP exchange rates. Notably Eurozone Inflation data on Tuesday and then the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate decision and Press Conference on Thursday. If buying or selling Euros then this release will be very important to you. The Euro has improved buy over 12 cent against sterling in the last 6 weeks, this trend is causing headaches for Euro buyers and is present unbelievable opportunities for clients selling Euros for pounds. If you are selling Euros following a property sale in the Eurozone and wish for some assistance with the planning and execution of any deals please email me firstname.lastname@example.org for more information which I am sure you will find very useful.
GBPEUR Range for January 1.25-1.33 GBPUSD Range for January 1.36-1.45 GBPAUD Range for January 2.01-2.10 GBPNZD Range for January 2.15-2.25
The USD is now at a 6 year high against the pound which is a level which could yet improve. A 12 year low on Oil prices is worrying global investors who are buying the USD. This trade by investors is being made yet more attractive by the prospect of the US raising Interest Rates again in the future.
All of these events are construing to cause the pound to lose lots of value. If you are buying or selling the pound the market is still adjusting to the worries surrounding the UK Referendum and trying to make sense of events in China. These events are not going to just disappear overnight so making some plans and understanding your options is more important than ever. For a quick evaluation of your situation and analysis of some options that might suit you best please email me Jonathan on email@example.com
I have worked as a specialist currency broker for 8 years assisting private clients and businesses with their international currency exchanges. I am very sure I can offer you some useful information which will help you in any decision making plus offer a rate which will save you money over other options. Even if you have a system in place double checking your rate and getting a second opinion could be worthwhile.
I look forward to hearing from you!
Economic data coming up that may impact your currency exchange – Data for those with GBP,EUR,USD, CAD,CHF,NZD and AUD interest
Tomorrow morning to start the ball rolling we have U.K unemployment data which is expected to remain at 5.6% – Any change to this will lead to a volatile start to the morning for Sterling exchange rates.
I have outlined other important data of interest but I would say the main talking point of the week has to be the Federal Reserve Interest rate decision, monetary policy statement and press conference att released on Thursday evening at 19:00pm.
Speculators and investors around the world will be watching to see if there will be any movements in interest rates either imminently or in the coming months for the States.
Personally I feel this is a week where limit orders come into play for anyone looking to buy or sell currency during the course of the week. A limit order is where you can set a specific rate you wish to achieve with us and should it become available even for a matter of seconds then your currency will be bought out automatically for you and we will contact you to let you know.
The order can be canceled or amended at any time as long as it has not been achieved and a lot of my clients are using this handy market tool at present to try and squeeze that little bit more out of a volatile market.
If you are buying an overseas property or you have large business invoices to pay then it is well worth contacting me for more information on this free market tool.
We pride ourselves on not only giving our readers and clients regular market information but also helping them achieve the best possible exchange rates for their transfers. You can email me (Daniel Wright) on firstname.lastname@example.org and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to tailor a plan for your specific situation.
Other releases of note are below, likewise if you need further information on how these may affect you then email me on email@example.com
|WEDNESDAY, SEP 16|
|10:00||EMU||EUR||Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)|
|10:00||EMU||EUR||Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Aug)|
|10:00||EMU||EUR||Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Aug)|
|14:30||US||USD||Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Aug)|
|14:30||US||USD||Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)|
|THURSDAY, SEP 17|
|07:35||JP||JPY||Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech|
|08:30||CH||CHF||SNB press conference|
|08:30||CH||CHF||SNB Interest Rate Decision|
|19:00||US||USD||Fed Interest Rate Decision|
|19:30||US||USD||Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement and press conference|
|23:30||AU||AUD||RBA’s Governor Glenn Stevens Speech|
|FRIDAY, SEP 18|
|13:30||CA||CAD||Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Aug)|
|13:30||CA||CAD||Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)|
I hope if you fine our market information interesting and useful you will give us a shot at getting you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider. We have helped over 5000 clients that have contacted us through this site and we would love to add you to that list of satisfied customers. Contact me (Daniel Wright) on firstname.lastname@example.org with a brief description of your needs (minimum £20,000) and I will call you personally.
The Chinese impact on sterling exchange rates has been fairly pronounced with exceptional volatility on the stock market and also the pound. Essentially the worries in China have stoked fears that the UK will not be raising interest rates any time soon, perhaps for years! This has weakened sterling as investors seek alternative investments with their money. The volatility in the market is truly exceptional as everyone awaits China’s next move which could very easily tip the scales one way or the other. I expect the pound is going to continue to suffer and that anyone who needs to buy a foreign currency with the pound should move sooner rather than later.
What happens next will be largely determined by the Chinese who are key to making an impact on financial markets. If you wish to buy or sell the pound please get in touch with us to learn more about the latest forecast. Economic data has been quite positive for the pound in the last month increasing expectations the UK would raise interest rates. However the latest Chinese developments have really upset this balance presenting an amazing opportunity to buy the more risky currencies such as the Rand, AUD and NZD.
We are currency specialists here to assist in the planning and execution of your currency transfers. If you wish for a quote please fill in the form and we will be in touch immediately to work with you to help you get the best deal. Please contact me Jonathan on email@example.com to learn more.
The Pound has had a funny week against most majors, remaining in the 1.34-1.35 range against the Euro, (albeit with some quite volatile moments) gaining ground back against the Dollar and pushing higher against the antipodean currencies (AUD,NZD,ZAR) even seeing the Sterling/Australian Dollar rate testing the level of 2.
One important matter that could really lead to an extremely lively start to the week is the issue with Greece. Whispers are that they are close to securing a debt deal which may bring a little certainty back to the Eurozone and confidence to the Euro, which in turn may lead to Euro strength at the start of the week.
Overnight on Monday night we also have the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) meeting minutes from their last interest rate decision which may give indications as to what the next move is and could really give the Australian Dollar some fairly sharp movements out of hours.
If you have been waiting to buy your Australian Dollars at a rate of 2 then a limit order may be a sensible approach. This is where you can set an order to buy automatically if the achievable rate becomes 2 or better and can be really handy as data comes out from both economies day and night so it means that any sharp movements will be taken advantage of on your behalf. If you feel that this type of order may be beneficial to you then feel free to email me directly on firstname.lastname@example.org and I will be happy to get back to you personally.
Tuesday will bring inflation data for the U.K which has been a fairly important talking point for Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney over the past few months as the figure continues to drop steadily with major thanks to falling oil prices. An even lower figure will possibly weaken Sterling off a little as concerns of deflation will no doubt rise and although yesterday Carney said in his inflation report that rates would not rise until at least 2016 this could still just concrete that thought a little more.
An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned and a drop in rates negative so whenever an interest rate hike is pushed back you can see a currency drop in value.
If you are looking to exchange the Pound into any currency or exchange any currency back into Sterling then feel free to email me directly on email@example.com with a brief description of what you are looking to do along with a contact number and I will be happy to get in touch.
Greek elections show Syrizia victory – Further Euro weakness
Well we have certainly seen an extremely busy start to the year as far as the currency markets go and this weekend did not fail to add to the drama.
Yesterday Greece voted in favour of the far left group Syrizia who have been saying throughout the campaign that they would aim to re-negotiate the Greek debt package. On top of this they have also suggested even looking to leave the Eurozone which would cause even further problems in an already stumbling economy.
What this brings is yet further uncertainty to the Euro both politically and in an economic sense which can tend to weaken a currency fairly significantly.
If you also consider the fact that it was only last week that the Eurozone introduced a huge QE (Quantitative Easing) plan then it is absolutely no surprise at all that the Euro has found itself well and truly out of fashion and has weakened significantly this year against Sterling and the Dollar.
As it stands it would cost almost £8,500 less to buy €200,000 today than it would have cost at the turn of the year which is certainly nothing to be sniffed at.
If you are looking to purchase a property overseas this year and you want to take advantage of current buying levels then there is a great option available to you known as a forward contract. This useful contract option allows you to lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to a year in advance, paying merely a small deposit initially and then the balance on or before whichever date has been agreed, this is absolutely vita if you are working to a fairly tight budget. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on firstname.lastname@example.org with a contact number and I will be more than happy to call you personally.
Dollar breaks 1.50 – Antipodean weakness
Trading on Friday also saw Sterling drop through the 1.50 mark against the Dollar and I personally would not be surprised to see this run continue. In times of global uncertainty the Dollar can quite often become the main benefactor and it appears that this is happening again. On top of this the antipodean and perceived ‘riskier’ currencies (AUD, NZD and ZAR) are starting to weaken off again.
With Europe finally showing huge cracks appearing and more uncertainty than England’s batsmen in the cricket, along with terribly sad news over the weekend that Islamic state have now potentially killed a Japanese hostage there is a huge shift in global attitude to risk so a flight to safety to the Dollar is well and truly underway.
GDP figure for the U.K due out on Tuesday
Apart from the fallout from one of the most important weeks in the history of the Euro one key piece of data for the U.K is due out on Tuesday morning at 09:30am. The release is our GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figure for the last quarter of 2015. GDP basically measures how much an economy grew or shrank during a specific period and expectations are for the quarter to have shown a slight drop from 0.7% to 0.6% so any change to this may lead to an extremely volatile day for the Pound to add to what is lined up to be an exceptionally busy week.
GBP EUR The Pound has still remained fairly range bound against the Euro over the past week of trading even with the vastly expected interest rate cut from the European Central bank yesterday afternoon. I would imagine this cut would have already been priced into the market. Sterling Euro exchange rates are still very close to a 16 month high so if you are looking to send money overseas for a property purchase or any other reason, then now is still a great time to buy.
GBP USD Again fairly static, the Pound has failed to make any major movements against the Dollar throughout the week, making minor gains yesterday following the ECB announcement.
We do have U.S Non-Farm payroll data due out today at 13:30pm which can actually be quite a large market mover. Non-Farm Payroll data measures the number of people in Non-agricultural employment over in the States and can actually have an effect on all major currencies as it affects global attitude to risk so this is one to watch out for.
GBP CHF The Swiss Franc took a bit of a hit during the course of trading yesterday afternoon due to the ECB announcement and moved by over 1% creating a small buying opportunity. Indeed the rate has already come all the way back down which still suggests that the Swiss Franc is well in favour so may come back a little in the coming weeks.
GBP AUD Seemingly at a pivotal point of 1.80 at present, the Pound and Australian Dollar are having a battle which is much less one sided than the Ashes. Personally I still think the Pound has gains to make in the coming months however this is one to approach with a little caution as calls for AUD weakness by the RBA and Government do not quite seem as rife as a few months back.
GBP NZD Sterling has made good gains against the New Zealand Dollar recently edging closer to the psychological level of 2 NZD to the Pound. Personally I would be tempted at placing a limit order at this level if I had any currency exchange to carry out involving buying New Zealand Dollars. A limit order is where you can set a particular level that you wish to achieve and should this level become available at any point 24 hours a day then the currency is bought out automatically for you, very handy with a currency pairing that can make sharp moves overnight!
GBP ZAR The Pound has edged closer to 18 in the last week or so, this currency pairing really is moving around a lot on a day to day basis though so you must be wary that within the matter of a few days the exchange rate has been moving by quite a few per cent.
Data out next week to watch out for:
Industrial and Manufacturing figures for the U.K @9.30am
NIESR GDP Estimate @ 3pm
U.K Unemployment figures @ 09:30am
New Zealand Interest Rate Decision @ 10:00pm
Australian Unemployment figures @ 02:30am
If you have a requirement in the future but you do not yet have the full availability of funds you can book out a forward contract. This is where you can book a rate out for up to a year in advance with just a small deposit, removing the risk of the currency market making your purchase any more expensive in the future.
This is ideal if you are in the process of buying a property overseas as you can know exactly how much the property is going to cost you today and eliminate the risk of the Pound dropping away again and missing out on this great opportunity.
If you feel I could be of use to you for any upcoming currency exchanges then feel free to email me directly on email@example.com and I will be more than happy to call you personally. The company I work for can better exchange rates of others and I pride myself on an efficient personal service.
Sterling has had a mixed day against the Euro hitting just shy of 1.22 following the release of the Euro Zone’s latest inflation figures that showed a further contraction to 0.7% down from the forecast figure of 0.8% and putting more pressure on the zone as a whole from deflation. This has created the best buy levels against the single currency in over a month and could be an opportunity for Euro buyers.
Looking at the US dollar and the pound has also had a strong day pushing through 1.69 against the greenback putting levels at the highest since August 2009. The US dollar took a hit as GDP figures earlier this afternoon disappointed coming in at 1.3% down from the forecast of 1.7% – this will make this afternoons FED interest rate decision and accompanying statement interesting viewing. Also look out for tomorrow’s initial jobless claims data and Friday’s non-farm payroll figures.
Looking at other currencies and the pound pushed through 1.82 against the Aussie Dollar and nearly 1.97 against the Kiwi Dollar.
To finish off the week the most important data from the UK in my view will be Friday’s PMI construction figures at 09:30. Expected to post a fall from 62.5 to 62 and could lead to tougher day for sterling to close off what otherwise has been a good week from the pounds point of view.
If you have an upcoming bank to bank currency exchange to arrange and you would like further information on the currency service we provide then please email Mike at firstname.lastname@example.org
Good afternoon Readers! The pound is at some truly excellent levels currently, levels that should not be easily dismissed in the hope of much better rates. If you need to buy or sell currency there are a few pointers to note that will make your life easier and your wallet heavier!
Accept that you will not get the ‘top’ or the ‘bottom’ of the market. All too often I am managing one of my client’s currency exposure and they base all their calculations on a recent high. So for example selling Euros to buy pounds at 1.19 or buying Euros with pounds at 1.22. If you do this you are likely to be disappointed. Speak to me about what is a more realistic rate to achieve by calling 01494 787 478 or why not email me email@example.com
Do your research! There can be major difference between the exchange rates offered by banks and currency brokers like us. But there can also be major differences between the rates offered by different brokers. Here at poundsterlingforecast.com we seek to undercut other brokers and on large volumes the differences can be significant.
GBPEUR is currently 1,2131, GBPUSD is 1.6751, GBPAUD is 1.7921 and GBPCAD is 1.8261
Getting the best exchange rate on a large volume currency transfer (£10,000 +) makes a big difference to the amount you receive. If you are transferring a sum of this size and want to learn the current forecast please contact me on firstname.lastname@example.org for the very best rates and latest news on what will move your rate!