Tag Archives: nzd
Crunch time for the UK, will recession be avoided? Exchange rate forecasts (Mike Vaughan)
As my colleagues post highlights opinion in the office is entirely divided. The majority of traders believe a 0.1% figure will be released and this in turn should lend support to sterling exchange rates as a result. I for one have predicted this and hope for a better day pushing GBP/EUR above 1.18, GBP/USD towards 1.54 and GBP/AUD pushing closer to 1.50 – a trigger point for many AUD buyers.
Of course the decision will be a close one and many of those with an interest in the money markets will be keeping a very close eye on the 09:30 release. The office has a range of predictions from 0.1% to – 0.2%. To avoid recession we need to see 0% or better, something that may give the economy a much needed boost. Of late data in the UK has been somewhat better with the only exception retail sales, but these have been affected by unseasonably poor weather, something you cannot legislate for. Today could prove incredibly volatile, should you wish to remove this uncertainty then get in touch early on 01494 787478 or email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Although UK GDP data is likely to dominate today’s trading, other data to watch out for will include the following:
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 – expecting to show a slight decrease possibly lending support to the US dollar this afternoon.
Overnight we have the interest rate decision from Japan – expected to stay on hold at 0.1% and should cause little movement for GBP/JPY but watch out for the Bank of Japans monetary statement that will follow. This will outline the policies the BofJ will have in store and could have an impact on riskier currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR as the JPY is often used in conjunction with these currencies through he use of a carry trade. This is when investors borrow in a low yielding currency i.e. JPY and look for higher grossing currencies such as AUD, NZD and ZAR. It is a risky trade as the exchange rate movement can remove any gains from the higher yield offered and as a result economic sentiment from Japan could adversely affect the riskier currencies. I for one feel further opportunities will be seen for buyers of the AUD, NZD and ZAR in the coming few days and weeks.
To finish off the week watch out for annualised US GDP at 13:30 tomorrow. Expected to show a strong improvement which should drive cable rates back towards 1.51/52 to finish off the working week.
Should you have an upcoming trade to arrange and you would like to discuss the market in more detail and how we can help you achieve a competitive commercial rate of exchange then please get in touch. We are here to help. Please email with your particular currency requirement and I will happily get in contact to discuss your options to help you maximise your trade. Email mgv@currencies.co.uk
GBP/USD at 1 month highs. GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, GBP/NZD exchange rate forecast (Mike Vaughan)
Sterling exchange rates have had an interesting time of late rallying against the Euro in the wake of the Cyprus debacle (ministers meet today to finalise the bailout with some analysts suggesting the cost of the rescue may rise to €23bn) and the USD but still looking significantly out of favour when paired against the Australian and New Zealand Dollar. In fact the latter two are currently trading at near record highs against the pound a trend that may well continue in the short term and I would certainly urge anyone selling AUD and NZD to take stock of their positions whilst rates are so strong.
What’s in store for Sterling?
For me the overriding factor to determine the direction for Sterling against a host of currencies will be the avoidance of the triple dip recession. Earlier this week the NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) released its latest prediction showing revised figures of 0.1% suggesting the UK may just scrape through into positive territory as far as GDP and growth is concerned.
We will not find out the official results until the 25th April and expect market volatility in the run up to this date, but should we avoid the ‘triple dip’ then we may finally see some much need support for sterling. Of course with the result very much on a knife edge it could swing Sterling either way and continue this period of market volatility and uncertainty.
GBP/USD exchange rates
Sterling has seen a mini-recovery against the greenback having regained over 6 cents from the 1.48 lows seen this time last month. This is a near 4% swing in favour of sterling and to me represents a good buy opportunity.
Today we have plenty of data that could affect cable starting with retail sales figures at 13:30 BST and finishing with a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at 17:30. Retail sales are expected to show a drop month on month and may create further opportunities for those clients that are in a position to take advantage.
Those looking to buy dollars may wish to avoid Bernanke’s speech at 17:30. Tuesdays FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes suggested the FED’s stance on quantitative easing could be wound down throughout the course of 2013 and should Bernanke re-confirm this then we may see the dollar recover late on, his speech may also indicate as to what future policies the FED could introduce and outline the FED’s stance on the current US economy. The old saying goes that ‘when the US sneezes the world catches a cold’, therefore any
sentiment from Bernanke is keenly viewed by investors worldwide and can cause large shifts on the money markets.
NZD at record highs
As mentioned in yesterday’s market report the Kiwi dollar has been going from strength to strength in recent weeks and in fact reached near record high over the course of yesterday’s trading. Recent trends have been attributed to improved imports from China, and in particular an increase in demand for products in New Zealand.
The moves have been quite staggering in recent years having gained in excess of 20% since March 2011 and over 10% since the start of this year. Should you have a requirement to sell NZD you will do very well to find a better time than this.
In other news…………
The Bitcoin virtual currency lost half its value on Wednesday because of a panic sell-off. From a high of $260 (£169) for each Bitcoin, the value dropped to about $130 (£84) in just six hours. The selling frenzy began as Bitcoin’s main exchange, MTGox, struggled to keep up with the volume of trade in the virtual currency. The “soaring price” of the Bitcoin has made it impossible for MT to cover what it owes to members – has the Bitcoin bubble burst?
As one if the UK’s longest standing independent currency brokers we have the ability to buy and sell nearly all major currencies but sadly for some cannot trade the Bitcoin. However shouldyou be looking at a more traditional investment such as property overseas, or emmigration, or have a substantial corporate trasnsaction to arrange then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email mgv@currencies.co.uk for further information on the currency service we can provide.
Will the UK avoid recession? The BCC certainly thinks we will…..could the pound get stronger? (Michael Vaughan)
Today has been a slightly strange day as the pound has lost ground against the majority of currencies, and in some cases quite heavily losing over 1% against the New Zealand Dollar, 0.9% against the Australian Dollar, 0.7% versus the US dollar and 0.6% against the Euro. This comes following a much needed Easter break, and although the UK is showing little sign of spring like conditions, could we be seeing the beginnings of an economic recovery to brighten up your day? Certainly the British Chambers of Commerce thinks so. In a report released this morning the BCC indicated that a strong performance by Britain’s service industries during the first three months of the year has kept the economy growing. The BCC’s survey, which included more than 7,000 firms, found that conditions for both the services and manufacturing sectors were improving, but the services sector saw some of the biggest improvements, with strong domestic sales and exports, and with Services accounting for about three-quarters of the UK economy this is certainly positive news.
Following this news from the BCC the Euro zone released their latest unemployment figures showing a record high of 12% and bringing total unemployment to over 19 million. The highest jobless rates were 26.4% in Greece, although this figure was from December, and 26.3% in Spain. This you would think would all lead to a good, positive day for the pound, but we have infact seen the exact opposite. I for one cannot see an exact explanation for the pounds losses however to me this really empasises what a volatile market place this currently is. I do feel this is a s light blip for the pound and would expect levels against the Euro in particular to remain range bound between 1.17-19, I do also feel the overall benefactor of the ongoing Cyprus debacle will be the US dollar as it gains from its historical ‘safe haven’ tag. For this reason look for a move back to 1.50 for GBP/USD and EUR/USD to move towards 1.27.
Should you have any upcoming money transfers to arrange and you have found this blog useful then why not contact us to see what we can do for you? The purpose of the site is to give you independent market views to help you make an informed decision with your currency exchange. By giving yourself as much information as possible it can put you in a far stronger position when attempting to maximise your currency exchange, allowing you to limit your exposure to adverse market movement. Should you wish to find out more about the specialist currency service we provide, whether you are a private or corporate client, then we can help. Please get in touch either on 01494 725353 or by emailing me with a brief description of your individual requirement and I will happily contact you and run though your options. You can reach me direct at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Sterling sees further gains against the Euro as GBP/EUR breaks above 1.18, get the best deal on your foreign exchange (Michael Vaughan)
As we head towards a much needed extended weekend break the pound is continuing its mini-recovery against the Euro moving nearly 5 cents in the last two weeks. This is bringing some unexpected respite for many and creating some good opportunities for Euro buyers. I do also feel those selling Euros should still look at the current levels as an opportunity. Taking a look back across the last two years trading the average price for GBP/EUR sits at 1.195 so you are still ahead of the game sitting at the 1.18 level and still some 7.5% better than the pre-Christmas 2012 levels.
For me this could be the start of prolonged recovery for the pound, particularly if the UK can avoid the triple dip recession. Recent data suggests it will be a close run thing but is certainly starting to look a little more optimistic for the UK with better than expected retail sales and public sector net borrowing figures from last week shining a brighter light on the UK’s slow road to recovery. I have been saying for some time how I couldn’t understand why the pound was so out of favour, particularly when compared to the Euro. For me it was inevitable that the European bubble would burst and those with an interest in the GBP/EUR pairing were possibly focusing to much on Sterling’s woes and forgetting the deep rooted problems facing the Euro zone. With Cyprus looking to agree terms to their €10bn bailout by imposing strict bank levies on deposits, this means in some cases holding up to 40% of individuals hard earned cash.
Some will argue that Cyprus has no choice, and in many ways they do not, but its sets a very dangerous precedent to the rest of Europe. Should this scenario spread to the rest of the euro zone then the knock on effects could be catastrophic and create a significant shift in investor confidence. This could cause a significant shift in GBP/EUR and EUR/USD exchange rates and you may also find a large shift from riskier currencies offering higher yields such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR. A major benefactor could be the USD and the ultimate loser the Euro. We are some way from this situation but I certainly feel opportunities will arise for those looking to buy Euros. Should you be selling however I would start to get a little concerned with the current trend and you may wish to explore your options.
When buying foreign currency it is important to give yourself the best opportunity to maximise your conversion. By using the services of a specialist foreign exchange brokerage this will give you the ability to take control of your currency requirement. This can be done through utilising one of the many contracts we have available such as spot/forward contracts and stop/loss or Limit orders. We will also aim to contact our clients as soon as a particular target rate has been achieved through our market rate alert service. To discuss the service we provide in full or to have me contact when a particular rate becomes available then please contact me at mgv@currencies.co.uk giving a brief description of your particular requirement and target rates in mind and I will be sure to alert you if this price becomes available.
To discuss the full currency service please contact 01494 787478 or email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Why is the Pound still getting weaker? Here is my take on what may be happening – Sterling drops again against EUR, USD, AUD, NZD,CAD,ZAR,CHF and all majors (Daniel Wright)
The Pound has once again had a pretty dire week after a fairly positive end to last weeks trading.
Strangely we had some very positive data out yesterday as the CBI (Confederation of British Industry) announced that they feel that the U.K may avoid a triple dip recession when the GDP figures for the first quarter of 2013 are released in April. Usually this would bring a little strength to the Pound but still Sterling continues to suffer.
Today Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King spoke at 10:30am – He kept up to his usual pattern and by 11:00am the Pound had dropped dramatically against most major currencies, personally I feel there is a game plan behind all of this and that the BOE and U.K Government are aiming to keep the value of the Pound low throughout this quarter.
If the Pound remains low then exports of goods and services from the U.K should increase, this increase may be the key to make us just avoid a triple dip recession which is what I personally see as the main aim at present. Should the U.K drop into the triple dip territory then the risk of a credit rating downgrade may increase which may make it more costly for the U.K to borrow and could put us into further trouble.
Once (assuming we do) we have avoided the triple dip recession then it gives the BOE and Government another 6 months to play with where they can concentrate a little more on inflation and various other targets not being met, we may even see a small hike in interest rates after April which should lead to a little Sterling strength.
I am afraid though if you are looking for a stronger Pound and your business has a pending currency transfer to make, you are in the process of buying a property overseas or you just sent wages out to another country you may be in for a rocky ride for a few months. Of course I may be completely wrong and the markets are so volatile at present that even a sniff of the Euro zone crisis coming back to a head and things may change completely – That is the beauty (or problem with) the currency markets.
One thing you do need to make sure of if you are in the position where you need to buy or sell any amount of currency involving a bank to bank transfer then you should have a proactive currency broker on your side who can be your eyes and indeed ears on the market. I personally welcome any new clients and treat every transfer the same whether it is £1000 or £5,000,000 as I completely understand that everyone’s need is different and to some people every little counts, so I aim to make everyone a saving over their bank or indeed current broker.
Feel free to contact me directly for a live quote or even for a brief discussion surrounding your requirements. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk please note we only deal with bank to bank transfers and no cash or speculation. Please also remember to leave a contact number and time to call when sending me an email.
I look forward to speaking with you.
Anyone with an interest in the pound should keep an eye on UK GDP tomorrow. GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD forcasts
Sterling exchange rates have struggled since the start of 2013 falling 3.5% from the high when compared to the low. This is a substantial move in a little over 3 weeks and is a worrying trend for the pound.
For me the next big data set for anyone with an interest in this pair will be today’s eagerly anticipated UK GDP data. Following the NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) forecasting -0.3% growth for Q4 of 2012, the market is predicting the worst. Early indications are not particularly positive and were compounded yesterday following predictions from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) that the economy will expand by just 1%, less than the 1.1% they predicted in October and below the official Government forecast of 1.2%.
Preliminary forecasts are suggesting anywhere between -0.1% and -0.3%. I for one feel that should the data come in as expected or hopefully better than expected i.e. 0% or better then I believe the pound could have a better end to the weak. I am also a little surprised at how poorly sterling exchange rates have performed since the turn of the New Year. Yes recent data has not been as good as we had hoped for; however the fundamentals behind the UK economy are surely in a better place than those of our counterparts in Europe?
I for one feel this pair is due a correction and can see levels heading back towards the 1.20 territory. Should you be selling Euros, for this reason, and whilst levels are not far from a 1 year high, it may well be worth considering your options – this may include the use of a forward contract allowing you to guarantee your position even if you do not have full availability of your funds.
Where now for cable? Pound at a 5 month low
As with the Euro the pound has had a tricky start to 2013 when compared against the greenback. Cable rates have been steadily falling, moving just over 2% from the high to low this year (a difference of $6,720 on a £200k transfer). For me tomorrows GDP will also be key for the short term trends on this pair, but longer term the debt ceiling deadline expiring at the end February could cause some volatility for the USD. Anyone that closely monitors the currency market will be aware that ultimately the main factor that can drive the money markets is investor confidence. During times of confidence riskier currencies (typically currencies offering higher yields such as the AUD and NZD) will perform very well and the so called ‘safe currencies’ historically the USD and CHF will devalue. However the current market does not seem to be moving as expected and for this reason is becoming increasingly difficult to forecast, and potentially the USD is not the safe haven it once was?
On Wednesday the US House of Representatives approved legislation that temporarily suspends the requirement for Congress to approve the nation’s debt ceiling (initially due to expire at the end of February). Republicans voted to approve the nearly four-month suspension on limiting America’s borrowing, backing away from an immediate battle with President Barack Obama and a possible first-ever default on the country’s obligations. Until changing course, Republicans had been threatening to demand dollar-for-dollar spending cuts to match the increase in the nation’s borrowing limit. As a result the dollar has strengthened – something that may well continue and I can see this testing the 1.57/56 in the coming weeks. Longer term, watch out for the ‘debt ceiling’ to rear its ugly head again, this may well push dollar rates back towards 1.60 in the months to come.
AUD, NZD
As mentioned in the previous paragraph these currencies have far outperformed Sterling in recent weeks and months. In fact the Aussie is just 3 cents away from the all-time record lows seen in August 2012 and likewise so is the Kiwi. This to me is representing an excellent time for anyone selling these currencies as I for one feel the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue with its monetary easing as seen over the past 18 months. I would expect another rate cut within the next 3 or 4 months as the RBA is again likely to be concerned about the strength of the AUD and the impact on its export market. I would also expect the slowing mining sector in Australia to directly impact the dollar (caused by falling growth in China) and this too is likely to put pressure on GBP/AUD – I would not be surprised to see a move back towards 1.55 as a result.
As for GBP/NZD – historically the Kiwi will track the AUD and I would expect a move back above 1.90.
If you would like updates on the market, register your interest by emailing me with your particular currency requirements (contact details, currency pair, volume and timeframes). I would be happy to run through my current forcasts and to provide you with a quote for your upcoming exchange. I can be reached at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Sterling report and forecast – Daniel Wright
GBP-EUR Forecast
For this currency pairing the real worry is the mountain of poor economic data cwe have had so far this year for the U.K everything is now pointing towards poor GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures this week which could (although probably expected now) give us a further kick whilst we are down and will also get the media back on to the ‘Triple dip recession’ bandwagon! We do need to remember however that the GDP will be for the entire 4th quarter, and with expectations at -0.1% even the release being the slightest bit better than expected could lead to the Pound heading back towards 1.20 as it would suggest recession status is a little way away again at least for the time being.
The Euro however seems to be ever popular and bond auctions have been surprising everyone at the moment as they are showing a great demand. People are investing in the Euro and in turn it is gathering strength rapidly, with the head of the European Central Bank also seemingly confident (or at least showing confidence in his speeches) there could still be a little way to go for this trend, so if you need to book something out in the near term it may be prudent to consider your options and contact your account manager here today on 0800 328 5884.
Head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi is speaking this evening at 18:00pm so be very wary of comments moving exchange rates overnight – You can protect yourself from further adverse market movements by placing a stop-loss order click here for one of our traders to call you back and let you know how this handy tool works. The Pound has dropped by 3.25% this year at the time of writing this as investors appear to question it as an option as a safe haven. To put this into monetary terms it would cost nearly £4000 more for a €150,000 purchase.
Sterling – Dollar
It looks like borrowing capacity will be extended at a vote on Wednesday which sweeps the Fiscal cliff issue firmly under the carpet until the 19th May.
This is why we saw the U.S Dollar and indeed many of the riskier currencies such as the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar gain strength against the Pound in yesterday’s trading. The main movements seemed to happen just as President Obama made his inaugural address. Personally I can see the Dollar starting to drive on from here and would not be surprised to see GBP-USD closer to 1.55 than 1.60 by the end of the week, even if GDP figures are positive.
Sterling – Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar
Creeping close to multi year lows again I personally think we are due a bounce back against these two currencies we just need something to kick start it. Australian inflation data is due overnight however I think the key factor is risk.
When risk appetite is high, investors tend to invest in riskier currencies such as AUD and NZD and thanks to things going quiet on the European crisis and the Fiscal cliff being partially resolved global attitude to risk is returning and with a vengeance.
Personally I feel it is only a matter of time before the next headline crisis or for the PIIGs to become front page news again and when this does happen rates should start to move back in the right direction.
Also be very aware that we could easily see another rate cut in Australia and a cut in rates can lead to negative movement s for the currency concerned. GBP-AUD has gone down by 3.56% so far this year which just goes to show why timing your transfer can be key, this equates to AUD 10,751 less in a matter of weeks on a £200,000 purchase of AUD!
Why you should contact us?
Here at www.currencies.co.uk we pride ourselves on not just award winning exchange rates but also a pro-active service too. Let your account manager here be your eyes and ears on the market so you can get on with your busy lifestyle. We can highlight movements in your favour or indeed against you which can be vital in this ever changing market. Contact me today by emailing djw@currencies,co.uk and I will be happy to help you.
As the country is braced for snow, the pound could also have a frosty start to the day with Retail Sales figures released at 09:30
As much of the country prepares for a deluge of snow we could also find the pound has a frosty end to the week with Retail Sales figures released at 09:30 this morning. Currently GBP exchange rates are on a significant downturn against a host of currencies having lost over 3% against the Euro and 2.2% against the US dollar in the last two weeks. This is a worrying trend for anyone buying Euros or Dollars and today’s figures may also do little to support GBP today. For anyone selling Dollars or Euros I feel these current levels are a real opportunity and should be looked at closely. Next weeks UK GDP figures could be the turning point for Sterling, should they come in better than the NIESR’s predicted -0.3% then we could see the pound reverse some of its losses as the market is pricing in and expecting the worse, for this reason I actually feel the pound will recover a fraction next week.
The US dollar I feel will also come under a little pressure as we head into February with the debt ceiling deadline looming. As with the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ debacle to me it is inevitable the US will avoid this debt ceiling but I am sure congress will leave it until the last minute and it is this uncertainty that I am sure will put pressure on the dollar. I feel we will see the 1.58 area tested before this but would expect to see moves back towards 1.60+ in February.
For anyone looking at the AUD and NZD, these are also experiencing strong surges against the pound since the start of the year. The AUD and Kiwi have both gained nearly 1.3% in 2013 and historically tend to track each other. Overnight we have seen China release their latest GDP figures, these have come out at 7.9% – better than the forecast 7.8%. This is likely to give further strength to the Aussie and Kiwi during the course of today. I do feel however 2013 will be a better year for Sterling against both these pairings. I feel it is likely the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue with cutting interest rates this year to help devalue the Aussie as exports from Australia are struggling and this in turn is hampering the Australian economy. Unfortunately the heady heights of 2.50 are long gone but I would expect to see 1.60 at some point this year.
Should you have an upcoming currency transfer and you would like to discuss the current trends then please contact the office on 01494 787478. As a specialist foreign exchange broker I am confident I can undercut any price you are offered, whether this be via your bank or any other institute. To discuss the service in detail and to run though the contracts and rates of exchange we can achieve please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk
How will the pound fare against these currencies in 2013? AUD, NZD, CAD, ZAR Forecasts.
The pound has had a typically uncertain start to 2013 with declines in Services and Construction, but with improvements in Manufacturing. As always these early month releases have affected short term movements against currencies giving well prepared clients opportunities to maximise their rate. This site of course focuses on GBP but when looking at rates on your currency it is important to be aware of global events that may affect the currency you trade. I have chosen AUD, NZD, CAD and ZAR because there are many common themes affecting their movements. Sterling doesn’t see too many independent moves in the same way these currencies do and with the global economy the way it is, the moves on these currencies can be unexpected. An awareness of what drives your rate is key to understanding the market and getting a good deal. Whatever your level of interest in the markets always feel free to post a comment below or contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk for information.
I think the big movers for the pound itself this year will stem from the prospects of further QE as well as UK growth prospects. Significant independent GBP moves should only really be affected by these concerns. For the month of January we are unlikely to see QE and henceforth a big drop for the pound looks unlikely. Therefore anyone who can hold out longer before they sell the pound for a currency may find an opportunity in the future. This means that those selling a foreign currency to buy sterling may wish to position themselves to move sooner particularly since current rates are so good.
GBPAUD – Positive data from China and improved global sentiments due to the fiscal cliff are keeping the Aussie strong. 1.60 has been a target for many of my GBPAUD buyers but this rate looks unlikely to be hit anytime soon. Conversely those selling are targeting a 1.50 so we are loosely in the middle of such rates. Current market conditions indicate to me there is more chance of the rate hitting 1.50 before 1.60 due to likelihood the Australian economy will remain strong and the fact the pound looks unlikely to stage the kind of resurgence that would enable 1.60 to be hit. The general improvement in market sentiments due to eurozone stability and resolution of the fiscal cliff back up my claim here but things can change quickly. If you are a buyer or seller of Aussies you can make an enquiry directly with me on jmw@currencies.co.uk and I can keep you posted on developments.
GBPNZD – The Kiwi has strengthened lately as Asian data remains positive. A move towards 2 looks unlikely but we could easily see a change in sentiment down the line. As with the Aussie the current market conditions coupled with a weak pound indicate a move towards 1.90 is more likely than the higher rates. On both currencies sentiments can quickly change so some preparation ahead of needing to make an exchange will help you in achieving the best rate.
GBPCAD – The Canadian Dollar has been boosted from the fiscal cliff deal and improved global sentiments. Now back comfortably below 1.60, this could be a good time for sellers to enter the market. The Canadian economy relies heavily on the US and the indications from the US Federal Reserve QE will end in 2013 also helped the currency. Much like the Aussie and Kiwi I expect the Loonie to be well supported and to only be moved by sharp changes in sentiment. I would be surprised to see us above 1.60 in the short term although the debt ceiling negotiations could provide the kind of spikes we saw late December. If you missed the boat on buying at this time and are waiting for an improvement you could be in luck depending on how long you can hold out and how steady your nerves are.
GBPZAR – The ZAR suffered massively due to uncertainty last year. Political uncertainty is a major turn off for investors and the much lower than expected growth in South Africa due to the uncertainty dented confidence. Nevertheless the South African economy has lots going for it with many mineral resources of interest to the West and East. As with those above it looks more likely the currency has recovered somewhat and a settling of tensions globally has helped the Rand. I think this is the currency the pound is most likely to enjoy strength against simply because it is the weakest overall. Sentiments on the Rand are frayed and it will take time to restore confidence. I would not be surprised to see a move above 14 again but unless there is major uncertainty presented to markets, cannot see it moving significantly higher.
Unfortunately no one has a crystal ball to tell you exactly what will happen in the future. But an awareness of all of the fundamental issues surrounding your currency deal will help you make a decision. We aim to make things as easy and simple for our clients so even if your requirement is just a one off speaking to us could save you thousands. This site and the people behind it have won various awards for our straightforward approach to information for those considering currency transfers. It would be impossible to run trough all the details in one post so if you would like more information on anything to do with an international money transfer (even if it is a one off) please feel free to make contact and we can guide you through the process. We handle bank to bank transfers from 1000 GBP to multi million pound transactions and assure you of the very best rate and service. All the best for 2013, jmw@currencies.co.uk
Sterling exchange rates – What may happen today/tomorrow with interest rate decisions, Non-Farm Payroll data and general economic data (Daniel Wright)
A great comment I heard this morning about the U.K economy was if the recovery still isn’t happening then maybe it is time to change the prescription…. The thing is I think we are moving in the right direction although just a little slower than would be hoped for.
Today may once again be key for the Pound, especially against the Euro as we have interest rate decisions for both the U.K and Europe at 12:00 and 12:45 respectively and we do not expect any changes to interest rates today what will be key is any comments about fiscal policies from the Bank of England and also any comments from the European Central Bank in their press conference at 13:30pm.
Should there be a lean towards further Quantitative Easing for the BOE then the Pound may be damaged a little but in my opinion the part of the day with the best chance of market volatility is the press conference headed by Mario Draghi. Investors tend to hang off of his every word during this conference which generally lasts for about an hour and Sterling Euro exchange rates can be quite jumpy to say the least during this period. If you have a pending transfer to carry out involving either buying or selling Euros a limit order or stop loss order would be ideal to ensure that you don’t lose out if the rate suddenly spikes for a matter of minutes or likewise starts to move against you rapidly.
A limit order or stop loss order is completely free to be placed and can be cancelled, changed or amended at any time as long as it has not been filled, there is absolutely no cost to do this it is just a great tool that we can offer as a company for both our private and corporate clients – Contact me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to assist you.
Tomorrow we have Non Farm Payroll data at 13:30pm which is a data release important for those with a Dollar interest and indeed interest in the ‘riskier’ currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR. Non-Farm Payroll data is essentially the number of people in Non-agricultural employment over in the States and is a key indication as to how their economy is performing.
This release can cause quite a lot of volatility because predictions are made in advance and these can be wildly out. The market moves on rumours and predictions as well as fact, and should the figure come out quite a way from initial predictions the market does correct itself rather swiftly.The reason this effects the AUD, NZD and ZAR and pretty much most majors is because as I am sure you can imagine it will affect attitude to risk and will lead to rapid movements of large amounts of money globally in what generally presents an interesting week to say the least without any surprises popping up during the course of it.
If you have an upcoming transfer to carry out and want to get the best exchange rates along with great customer service and knowledge of the markets then email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk I welcome all enquiries for bank to bank transfers however i’m afraid I cannot help with cash transactions or speculation.
