Tag Archives: nzd
Well folks it is that time of year when we reflect on the year so far and look to next year. As the site suggest we make forecasts and the forecast for sterling in 2014 would have to be positive. What are the possible pitfalls however and against which currencies will see the most gains? And what can you do to maximise your deals with this knowledge?
Watch the US – where is market sentiment?
The UK is leading the pack with the highest growth rates amongst European economies. The US is growing faster but their QE programme is without doubt fuelling these increases. At some point the US will have to turn off the QE taps and there will be a very strong market reaction not just on the US dollar but on the euro, pound almost every other currency.
Market Sentiment is a key determinant of the value of sterling. If investors are confident in the global economic outlook the pound should do well as the UK relies heavily on trade from overseas and the services sector which makes up a large part of our economy, relies on international trade.
The pound is likely to do well in 2014 as the global economic outlook improves and the UK recovery remains on track. Of course there are many pitfalls ahead and so the right type of contract is key. A forward contract is the perfect way to lock in your rate for the future without exposing yourself. If you are unsure about how this works or would like any information on the currency markets it really is worth your while speaking to us. Please feel free to speak to me Jonathan on firstname.lastname@example.org
Pitfalls, highs and lows
I expect the EU referendum and Eurozone debt crisis will be key factors that could affect sterling rates in 2014. The Aussie looks likely to be on the back foot as does the rand so I think sterling will push higher against these currencies. Whilst the early part of the year should see GBPUSD at similair levels, the prospect of QE tapering means GBPUSD should drop to the kind of levels we saw earlier this year. Although if you ask me we are a very long away away from the US economy being ready to give up its QE addiction.
I do hope you have found this information useful and look forward to hearing from you if you would like to learn more about our excellent rates, informative forecasts and friendly helpful service.
GBPZAR 5 year high, GBPAUD and GBPCAD 4 year highs, GBPUSD at 2 1/2 year high and GBPEUR over 1.20…
Sterling is at truly exceptional levels against most currencies as the UK’s recovery rakes hold and the UK sets itself apart from other leading economies by appearing to be likely to be one of the first leading economies to be raising interest rates. Whilst the United States are debating when to stop QE, the UK have not done any QE for the last year. The ECB are looking at possibly negative interest rates and the Bank of Canada is no longer looking to tighten policy. Overnight we learnt that GDP in Australia was weaker than expected, again a sign of another leading economy weakening whilst the UK has been performing well.
With the often crazy Christmas period fast approaching and changes in banking days there is a lot to be said for wrapping up a transfer like a present. The recent spike on exchanges rates has been a great gift to you and now could be an excellent time to either buy your currency or lock into a forward contract to minimise any losses. You can then remove the stress of the transfer and focus on the more important things at this time of year!
If you have a pending transfer we offer a specialist service to assist you in securing the most from the market. For more information at no cost or obligation please do feel free to get in touch. I am a specialist currency broker and my job is to assist private clients and businesses in managing their exposure to the currency markets, ensuring payments are made quickly and safely at the very best rates.
Please feel free to contact me Jonathan on email@example.com or call +44 1494 787 478 and ask to speak to me.
Sterling steady against the Euro and US dollar but shows strong gains against the AUD and NZD (Mike Vaughan)
Sterling has remained relatively flat against the Euro and clawed back early losses against the US dollar following worse than expected business confidence figures across the pond. In contrast the pound has continued its recent surge against the Aussie and Kiwi dollar, bringing prices against the AUD to the highest buy level in over 3 ½ years! With UK revised GDP data at 09:30 tomorrow expected to improve from 0.7% t0 0.8% this trend could continue during early morning trading.
Looking at the USD watch out for initial jobless claims at 13:30. With unemployment an area the FED have highlighted as needing to show an improvement, before they consider tapering QE, this data could give hints as to when, if at all, the FED will taper QE. For me it is inevitable the FED will continue with their stance on QE, the million dollar question is when. Once they eventually do then expect the greenback to fight back, but with cable at close to year highs and peaking at nearly 1.62 this afternoon – this sill represents good value when compared to the year low of 1.485 back in July.
As with the US dollar, the rates on GBP/AUD are likely to be heavily influenced by the FED. Again should they taper QE then I would expected AUD rates to fall heavily against all majors, as a result those buying AUD may still get more value from this market, although with GBP/AUD at the highest since June 2010 this is still a good opportunity. Anyone selling may wish to consider their options. Contact the office on 01494 787478 to discuss the various contrast we can offer. This may involve the use of a forward contract, allowing you to book rates in advance for a nominal deposit.
As with making any financial decision it is always best to get as much information about the product and the service on offer. As a specialist execution only currency broker we pride ourselves on our efficient, client friendly service and most importantly our price. When using a broker rates can be significantly better than high street banks and other financial institutions. To find out more about the service please contact 01494 787478 or email me with a brief overview of your particular requirement and I will happily provide further insight into current market conditions and the contract that may work best for you. Email Mike on firstname.lastname@example.org
FOMC minutes have created some big shifts on the currency markets. GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD and NZD exchange rate forecast (Mike Vaughan)
Sterling has been running through a particularly volatile time of late posting strong gains against the single currency since the surprise interest rate cut of last week and pushing rates to a 10 month high. Levels are still some 2.2% better than the end of October. Worryingly each time the pound looks like it will have a sustained period of strength and breach the 1.20 level the Euro fights back, should this trend continue then the current prices must represent value.
Looking at GBP/USD – rates pushed past 1.61 yesterday following dovish tones from Ben Bernanke suggesting interest rates will remain near zero, even should unemployment fall to 6.5%. However following yesterday’s FOMC minutes, Bernanke again announced that the tapering of QE is still certainly on the FED’s mind suggesting it could happen within the next couple of months. As a result the USD shifted back into the 1.60s and we have seen a big shift for the pound against currencies such as the AUD and NZD.
Since the end of October the pound has gained in excess of 3.2% against the NZD and 4% against the AUD. As mentioned the tapering of QE is likely to drive the value of the Aussie and Kiwi down further as it reduces the amount of international money supply and with yields in Australia and New Zealand far more attractive than many other countries, a fall in money is likely to hamper these particular currencies more so than say the Euro or Pound. This combined with the fact the RBA is interested in devaluing the Australian dollar to improve its competitiveness (in fact RBA Chairman Stevens just this morning said he was open minded on intervention to weaken the AUD) suggests AUD and NZD buyers should get more value. Sellers on the other hand should consider their options.
Should you have an upcoming bank to bank money exchange to arrange and you would like to discuss the currency service we provide then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at email@example.com
Pound steady against the Euro and US dollar but down against the Aussie and Kiwi dollar (Mike Vaughan)
Sterling has had relatively stable day against the Euro and US dollar but has posted losses against the Australian and New Zealand Dollar. We could see further movements overnight with speeches scheduled by Ben Bernanke (head of the FED) and RBA assistant Governor Guy Debelle.
This morning movements for the AUD and NZD have come about following the release of the RBA minutes last night. The minutes in fact did little to excite and left the door open for further interest rate cuts and I would still expect little upside for the Aussie, particular should the FED eventually taper. Bernanke’s speech later this evening might give more insight as to when this might occur.
Looking at tomorrow and the key release will be the Bank of England minutes scheduled for release at 09:30 and the FOMC minutes at 19:00. Recently the pound has seen a positive shift against most major currencies as in Mark Carneys words, the ‘UK recovery looks to be taking hold’ – tomorrows minutes will give further insight into the banks thoughts and may continue this recent good run for the pound. Likewise the FOMC minutes should give further clues as to what the FED’s stance on QE will be and could cause significant market volatility throughout the course of tomorrows trading.
Should you have a currency transfer to arrange and you would like to discuss the currency service we provide then please contact the office. As a specialist execution only broker we have multiple contracts available to help maximise our clients exchange and pride ourselves on the service we provide. To find out more please contact me with a brief overview of your particular requirement. You can also email me (Mike) using the following email firstname.lastname@example.org
This afternoons non-farm payroll release has created a shift against many of the riskier higher yielding currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR as the figures showed over 200,000 new jobs were created shifting target levels closer to the possible trigger point for the Federal Reserve to consider tapering QE. As a result the US dollar has made good strides against the pound moving back below the 1.60 barrier and the pound has pushed through 1.7050 against the Aussie and close to 1.94 against the NZD. This is a pattern longer term I see continuing, eventually when the FED decides to taper I would look for cable rates (GBP/USD) to push towards 1.55 and sterling to see stronger gains against the AUD and NZD as international money flows subside pulling investors funds from some of these riskier currencies.
Looking at the GBP/EUR pair, unsurprisingly the Euro clawed back some of its losses following yesterday’s surprising ECB interest rate cut. Prior to today the pound has gained in excess of 3% against the single currency in little over a one week period and to me looks like an opportunity for those looking at buying euros, particularly short term, as I feel the pound will struggle to break through the psychological barrier of 1.20.
Looking ahead to next week the major focus will be placed on Wednesday’s unemployment data and Bank of England inflation report. With Mark Carney indicating a target unemployment figure of 7% before considering raising interest rates, should unemployment creep closer to this level then I would expect sterling strength across the board on Wednesday. Also the inflation report will give a detailed economic analysis and inflation projections on which the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions, this could also cause volatility and will be released at 10:30.
When looking at the markets with a view to arranging your currency transfer it is important to give yourself as much information as possible. The purpose of this site is to help private and corporate clients with the timing of their conversions. As a specialist execution only broker we are here to help you maximise your conversion and significantly undercut the high street banks and other institutions. We also have a number of contracts that can be tailored to your specific needs allowing you to protect yourself against any adverse market movement. To get further information on the service we provide then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at email@example.com
FOMC minutes this evening will be the main focus for most with an interest in the currency markets, what impact could this have? (Mike Vaughan)
On what has been a relatively quiet weak for the pound most eyes this evening will focus on the release of the FED interest rate decision and accompanying FOMC minutes for any hint as to when the FED may begin to taper QE. For me it is highly unlikely they will do anything before the New Year but it is certain to be on their mind.
Any hint from the minutes as to when it may occur it and we could see some strength for the US dollar. For me currency movements across the board will hinge on the FED and its ‘will they wont they’ approach to QE. When they eventually do look to reduce QE it is likely the so called ‘riskier’ currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR will be the major losers as a reduction in liquidity in the market will reduce investment flows to these currencies and so cause a reduction in their respective value, the problem we have is how long will it take for the FED to cut QE? The answer is likely to be months not weeks.
Looking at GBP/EUR – the Euro has steadily been making inroads against the pound since the pairing briefly touched 1.20 at the end of September. Since then the Euro has gained 3% and been buoyed by positive news such as Spain officially coming out of recession. Is this a good time to sell euros? The short answer is yes.
A three percent shift in a month is a good return in anyone’s eyes and with UK data sets being more positive of late I am little surprised to have seen the pound lose value and believe the upturn in UK fortunes has not been fully reflected in the value of the pound against the single currency. Likewise I see current value against the US dollar with levels at close to a two year high and having gained over 5 % since the beginning of September.
Should you have a future bank to bank currency requirement and you would like to discuss my views and opinion on the current market then please get in touch. I work for currencies.co.uk a well established execution only broker with multiple contracts available to aggressively undercut the banks. To run through the service we provide and to get assistance with your money exchange please contact the 01494 787478 or email Mike at firstname.lastname@example.org
US debt ceiling extended, will this lend support to riskier currencies? GBP/USD and GBP/AUD forecast
So finally the US government has reached an agreement over the debt ceiling after 16 days of partial government shutdown. The debt ceiling has now been raised until February 7th 2014 whilst the government remains funded until the 15th January, avoiding default for the time being until no doubt the scenario reappears early next year. In the run up to the event the dollar gained yesterday evening breaking though into the 1.58’s but unsurprisingly has shifted back though the 1.60 territory this morning. For me these levels still represent a good buy opportunity and still feel those selling dollars, if prepared to bide your time, will get more value in the coming months.
Following the agreement in the US a degree of confidence has come back to the market and this has led to a drive in favour of the riskier currencies, notably the AUD and NZD. Both are currently trading at near three month highs against the pound having shifted in excess of 4% since the highs of August. This has created for me a good opportunity for AUD and NZD sellers as for the longer term forecast is still very much in GBP favours, a few reasons why have been noted below:
- RBA will continue their stance on monetary policy – unlikely to happen for the remainder or 2013 but I would expect them to look at cutting rates in early 2014
- US to taper? With the US government on shutdown data sets such as non-farm payrolls have not been released. For me once an agreement is made and focus heads back towards unemployment and expanding the US economy, should data sets improve then this could lend support to the argument the FED should taper QE. For me once they do taper the Aussie will weaken. With less money in circulation, investment in higher yielding currencies is likely to fall and so to demand, therefore currencies such as the AUD could lose value.
- China – with the IMF forecasting output in China to slow in 2014 this could hamper demand for Australian raw materials, directly impacting its economy and currency.
- RBA still keen on a weaker dollar. With Australian exports outside of mining having taken a big hit in recent years, the RBA may wish to keep track of AUD strength to help its slowing economy.
With the NZD loosely tracking the AUD, the trends are likely to be very similar and in summary for me this is an opportunity for AUD and NZD sellers, buyers, as with USD sellers – bide your time and I believe you will get better value.
Should you have an upcoming exchange to arrange and you would like to discuss the current market and the currency service we provide then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at email@example.com