Tag Archives: pound sterling forecast
The pending UK Supreme Court case in the UK is critical to the short term movements on sterling exchange rates and clients with a requirement to buy or sell the pound should be making plans around this. Expectations for the initial reaction to the decision are reasonably clear but once the decision is made we will then be faced with a whole new set of questions over the next direction for the Brexit vote. Markets have loosely priced in the expectation the previous decision will be upheld but there are no guarantees!
If the previous decision is upheld then the pound should rise. GBPEUR could hit 1.17-1.18, GBPUSD upper end would be 1.25, GBPAUD 1.70 and GBPNZD towards 1.80. The pound could easily fall up to 4% if the court case does not go the way markets have been predicting. There is a very strong chance we could be looking at rates on GBPEUR retesting 1.10-1.12 territory whilst on GBPUSD we could slip below 1.20. GBPAUD may drop below 1.60 and GBPNZD below 1.70.
The biggest problem is knowing when this case will be decided. With the Supreme Court reopening tomorrow from their recess period the news could come as early as tomorrow. I expect it will be between tomorrow and next week which gives clients looking to buy or sell sterling a small window of opportunity to plan in.
In order to maximise such an opportunity the best strategy in such a market is number one to be prepared and number two to understand your options. My order book is currently very high with ‘Limit’ and ‘Stop / Loss’ orders. A ‘Limit’ order allows you trade at a higher level whilst a ‘Stop / Loss’ order allows you to protect your rate should the market fall. In such an uncertain and potentially volatile market I feel the best way forward is to use a combination of the above tools to help limit your exposure and trade on any improvements.
If you have a transaction to consider and wish for some assistance with the timing and planning of any exchanges please feel free to contact me Jonathan by emailing firstname.lastname@example.org with an overview of your position and preferably a phone number so I can quickly contact you.
Thank you for reading this post and I look forward to answering any questions on the markets or the services we can provide.
The pound is fairly stable and range bound at present as markets keenly await the next direction of the Brexit. We are all eagerly awaiting the next bits of news over the Supreme Court decision and it is this which will determine the more immediate direction on the currency pairing. If you have a transfer to consider involving sterling understanding what is happening and being ready to react is the best way to capitalise on this news. At the moment we do not know when the decision will be released and this is keeping the market nervously on its toes.
Essentially upholding the previous High Court decision should see the pound rally but I think the gains will be limited. My personal expectation is for this to lead to sterling gaining up to 2% against its counterparts. If the decision goes for the government sterling will fall because I believe markets have very much priced in ‘good news’ that the previous decision would be upheld. If it falls in this scenario sterling could lose up to 4% as it becomes apparent a hard Brexit is more likely again. Sterling might retest the kind of levels we saw back in October last year.
After the Supreme Court decision attention will still remain on the Brexit and any good news for sterling will be shortlived in my opinion. There will still be many unanswered questions and as the resignation of Sir Ivan rogers, the UK’s Ambassador to the EU shows there is scope for further political casualties. Attention towards the end of the quarter will focus on the likelihood of Theresa May triggering Article 50 plus the Dutch and French elections. I expect GBPEUR could trade between 1.12 – 1.23 depending on the various outcomes here. If you wish to trade at these levels and wish to be kept informed of developments please email me on email@example.com
The big news on the US dollar is the likelihood of further interest rate rises. A strong jobs report has given rise to expectation we could see further interest rate hikes soon and GBPUSD has dipped. I expect GBPUSD to trade between 1.14 and 1.25 in the coming weeks. As you can see I feel the US dollar will be strengthening.
If you have a currency transfer involving sterling and wish to optimise your position with some expert insight and information please contact me Jonathan on firstname.lastname@example.org. I work as a currency specialist and have appeared on BBC News discussing Brexit and the impact on the currency markets. I would be very happy to hear from you and answer any questions and help you with your situation.
Thank you for reading, I hope to hear from you soon.
Sterling has managed to hold on to the gains it made through November as the currency continues to trade at a 3 month high against the Euro, and also a 2 month high when paired with the US Dollar.
The recent boost within the Pounds value has been welcomed by those planning on exchanging Pounds for another foreign currency, as at the beginning of last month Sterling was trading around it’s lowest levels against the Euro by almost 5 years, and at it’s lowest levels against the Dollar in around 30 years.
The recent upward movement for the Pound has made large currency exchanges involving the Pound considerably cheaper, and I think that Pound sellers have a key decision to make when it comes to their transfer. For example the Pound could continue to strengthen and consolidate above 1.20, that level could also act as a ceiling and we could see the Pound struggle to breach that level before falling back into the mid to low teens.
One approach would be to book at least part of your currency transfer around the current levels, as this approach allows clients to take advantage of the current 3 month highs whilst leaving themselves open to booking the next part at a more advantageous level, should that favourable movement occur.
There are a couple of factors which could impact the Pound over the following weeks. The Supreme Court hearing came to an end on Friday of last week, and although the result isn’t expected to be released until the end of January, expectations are for the High Courts ruling to remain in place. Despite this consensus I think that if the Government is successful with their appeal, we can expect to see the Pound fall as the Brexit process will be more straightforward and therefore, likely to happen sooner.
There are some key data releases this week and later this morning which could affect the Pounds value, and readers of this blog can feel free to get in touch regarding the times and details of these potential market movers.
If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on email@example.com in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages.
Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also provide me with a telephone number to contact you on, or you can call in on 01494 787 478 and ask for reception to speak with Joe.
The Pound vs the Euro has hit its best level to buy Euros with Sterling since September with the Pound making huge gains against all major currencies during the course of this week
On Thursday the Brexit secretary David Davis made claims that the UK could look to pay money to the European Union even after we have left the EU in an attempt to keep rights with the single market. This is one the main concerns for the UK’s negotiations and sets the tone that the UK may opt for s ‘soft’ Brexit. This helped the Pound to make some very big gains towards the end of this week.
On Sunday the Italians hold their own referendum on constitutional reform with Italian Prime Minster suggesting previously that he may resign if he is unable to get what he wants. Part of the reform is to centralise the banking system which is currently under huge pressure with large amounts of bad debt. If the vote goes the wrong way for Renzi and he does resign this could see Sterling Euro arguably challenge 1.20 during the early part of next week.
During 2016 we have seen many political upsets first with the Brexit vote back in June and then last month’s US election with Trump becoming the next President. Therefore, I would not be surprised to see a ‘protest’ vote with Renzi possibly resigning. Currency does not react well to political uncertainty and this is why I think we could see GBPEUR rates go in an upwards direction next week.
Next week the Supreme Court challenge concerning Article 50 is due to take place so I personally expect next week to be volatile to say the least. If you’re either buying or selling Euros in the weeks and months ahead and are worried about what may happen to exchange rates then it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.
Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that with my experience I can help you with the timing of your transfer as well as save you money when buying or selling Euros compared to using your own bank.
For a free quote please email me directly with details about the volume you’re looking to convert and the timescale involved and I look forward to hearing from you. If I haven’t covered your currency pair and you would like further information again please get in touch.
The pound has entered a fresh period of buoyancy finding favour against all currencies in November. October was a month of tremendous uncertainty but sterling has now recovered and this is presenting some very good news opportunities to buy a foreign currency. December is already looking extremely interesting with some very important events in the Eurozone and the United States which you can read more about in my post from this morning here. Otherwise let us have a look at some of the key decisions which will shape sterling exchange rates for the end of 2016.
The Supreme Court decision is one of the biggest factors for the pound in my opinion since it highlights the path to Brexit. The decision as to whether or not the UK will have to seek parliamentary approval to trigger Article 50 is of major consequence to the pound. If the Supreme Court rule Parliament does then we will surely see sterling rise since it makes the ‘hard’ Brexit Theresa May is apparently pursuing less likely. Parliamentary approval will undoubtedly hinge on severe watering down of the terms and even raises the possibility Brexit may not happen. The court decision may not be known until January but the story will be big news for December and early January.
If you are planning a currency exchange involving sterling I would be making plans around this information, it looks likely the vote will be upheld so sterling could rise further. If you need to buy or sell the pound then making some plans sooner rather than later is best to avoid the uncertainty this event presents to financial markets. For more information on this event and how to take advantage please speak to me Jonathan by calling 01494 787 478 or emailing firstname.lastname@example.org