Tag Archives: pound

Sterling has another exceedingly volatile day against Euro, Dollar and all majors – Global markets remain fragile (Daniel Wright)

It has been yet another busy day on the trading floor and we have seen yet another volatile 24 hours for Sterling exchange rates.

Markets around the world appear to be exceedingly nervous at present and there is a little worry that we may have one hell of a storm brewing ahead.

In the past year we have seen issues with the European economy, issues with the Chinese economy, oil prices dropping off, bank share prices plummet and the potential of any interest rate hike for the U.K slowly but surely be kicked further and further down the road so it is no surprise that the markets are acting a little out of the ordinary.

My personal opinion is still that Sterling is a little undervalued however when you do see negative movements like we have witnessed of late then the question does start to arise of how much further can it drop before we see a recovery? We all wish we truly knew the answer to this question as we would make a great deal of money…

The key with these sort of situations if you are due to be making a large exchange is to make sure you protect your position. Many people fall into the trap of thinking that they have to carry out their currency needs in one large chunk, and to time that correctly is almost impossible, along with the fact that you leave yourself extremely exposed.

If you are in the position that you do need to buy or sell a large quantity of currency for your business or indeed for the purchase or sale of a property then it is well worth getting in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly so that I can work together with you to try and maximise your money. I have been assisting clients in this position for nearly 10 years and I have been writing on this site for over 5 years so I am well positioned to not only help you get top commercial rates of exchange but also to ensure you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side at all times.

If you are stuck in a tricky position due to the latest movements and you are finding that you are stuck on your own with nowhere to turn the feel free to get in touch with me directly and I will be more than happy to call you personally. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk or call me on 01494 787 478 during U.K office hours of 08:30am – 18:00pm (please ask for Daniel Wright). You do not need to be based in the U.K for us to be able to help you.

GBP/EUR and GBP/USD now in daily slides (Joshua Privett)

It seems the only currency that Sterling had any gains against yesterday was on GPB/AUD, as rates for buying Euros (GBP/EUR) and for buying Dollars (GBP/USD), saw a fourth consecutive negative day in the currency markets.

This was seen most prominently in rates to buy Euros, which have come down by over 1% each day this week, and a total fall over the past 5 business days of nearly 6 cents.

The reasoning behind this hasn’t really changed since mid-December, it has simply become more obvious; the British economy is slowing.

Due to flooding and slowdown in global growth, alongside falling prices for commodities such as oil, growth forecasts for the UK have been revised downwards across most sectors – particularly for manufacturing, industrial and retail.

What’s most concerning compared to December is that we are also beginning to see a slow-down in the financial services sector as well, which has been hit for continuous slides in global stock and commodity prices. Mass sell-offs of shares is hitting the confidence in the UK financial sector to continue to perform and make-up for shortfalls elsewhere in UK GDP, which is translating into weaker confidence in the Pound.

George Osborne himself said that this would be the most difficult year for the UK economy since the financial crisis, and immediately his words have become prophetic since we’re only into the second week of February.

A global slowdown is not a short-term phenomenon, and particularly against the Euro the Pound is in for a difficult year with the Eurozone beginning to finally benefit from the emergency financial stimulus they introduced in January 2015. Their growth figures are up which is why Sterling has performed the worst against the Euro in recent weeks.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros or Dollars to buy in the short or medium term (3 months), should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

Whilst the outlook is concerning, currency markets rarely move in a straight line, and opportunities may present themselves in the short-term after such significant movements. Any favourable exchange rates reached can actually be fixed to avoid further harmful movement affecting your transfer.

Anyone looking to purchase Sterling can do the same, and I will explain how best to ride any further movements in your favour expected to their peak in the time period you have to complete your transfer. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Sterling records significant losses on GBP/EUR, but less so on GBP/USD (Joshua Privett)

Sterling weakened marginally on the markets yesterday, causing small losses across the board, but the most serious ones were recorded against the Euro. This was why GBP/EUR almost dipped below 1.31, but since recovered slightly as the afternoon progressed.

The reason for the more visible losses for Sterling against the Euro was that the Euro itself had a very strong day on the currency markets, and could be described as the clear winner by quite some distance.

This was due to results showing unemployment had now fallen across the entire Eurozone for the third month in a row.

Yesterday highlighted to anyone hoping to make a Euro purchase that there is still significant room for GBP/EUR rates to fall, particularly with levels being as low as 1.28 only a few weeks ago.

Further Eurozone data is expected to be released today and will likely paint the Euro in a similarly positive light.

The European Commission will be presenting their growth forecasts for Eurozone during 2016, which will likely have the full attention of markets tomorrow.

The past few months have seen the Eurozone regulalry post positive growth figures, with their 11 months of emergency financial stimulus finally showing similar results that the UK enjoyed following our own recession.

As such markets are expecting some optimistic forecasts for the Eurozone today which will likely see the Euro make further gains against the Pound throughout the day.

Similarly, these gains should be more extensice than yesterday, due to the added pressure of the announcement of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision.

For the past 4 months consecutively, this has caused the Pound to suffer on the currency markets. The reason being that the chance of an actual interest rate occuring in the UK is almost non-existent.

In fact Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, has now stated on more than once that due to worryingly and prolonged low inflation leves a hike will not be on the table until at least 2017.

If the vote split for a hike comes in at a complete whitewash of 9-0 against a vote, GBP/EUR rates, and GBP/USD buying rates should be put under further pressure.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros or Dollars to buy should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask our reception for Joshua, and I will respond personally to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your foreign currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current improvements on GBP/EUR can be fixed for a small deposit if you do not require your currency until later in the month or March. This will avoid your transfer getting more expensive if the drops we are expecting manifest. jjp@currencies.co.uk

How will GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD fare in February? (Joshua Privett)

Sterling had an incredibly difficult period in January. Rarely is it that currency market movements make the news but the dramatic falls on rates to buy Euros and various Dollars was hard to ignore.

To gain an understanding for how GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD will fare next month it would be invaluable to look back to how the UK economy performed during December and January.

The first few weeks of each month normally see the largest movements for exchange rates on the Pound. This is because the first two weeks are when  data for output in various sectors of the economy are tallied and released for the previous month – causing the value of the economy’s currency to change wildly based on how positive or negative the figures released paint the UK to global markets.

This is why the first few weeks of January saw the most serious slides for Sterling’s value, as December was was proven to be a very testing month.

Due to the flooding in the North, West, and later on parts of the South-East, industrial and manufacturing output slowed dramatically.

Even retail sales during the holiday period only grew at a fifth of what was expected.

With the flooding having continued into January, I would not be surprised that the latest set of figures to be released over the coming weeks will be displaying the UK in a fairly unflattering light.

Furthermore, January had seen the added hit to the financial service industry – the engine room of the British economy.

Deteriorating news coming out of China caused the second serious panic on global stock markets since October. With more capital going out of financial markets than going into them, we could see an added dimension to Sterling’s current weakness this month which will create testing times for Euro and Dollar buyers.

I strongly recommend that anyone with foreign currency to buy using Pounds in the coming months should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels for Euros and Dollars can be fixed to avoid any further currency movements making your future purchase more expensive.

Economic data due out tomorrow that may impact Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

Another fairly quiet day on the markets today for those with an interest in buying or selling Sterling, however tomorrow I would expect to see a little more volatility.

The last working day of the month can lead to sharp movements without warning as we see month end flows…. basically companies and funds netting off positions in advance of a new month. Quite often on the last working day of the month Sterling can become quite volatile against all major currencies as we see this happen , so it is important if you have a fairly imminent transfer to make that you keep in close contact with a proactive broker.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we do not only give you up to date market information but we can help you with exchanges too. We can get the very top levels of exchange on the markets due to our vast buying power and we pride ourselves on helping our clients with the timing of when they exchange their currency. If you would like me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site and a Director at Currencies.co.uk to help you with a transaction or merely to give you a quote then feel free to email me personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get straight in touch.

Economic data of note tomorrow is European inflation data, out at 10:00am (expectations are for a jump to 0.4%) which may give the Euro a little boost if matching that figure. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it fall short and to offer an opportunity to purchase Euros at a slightly better rate.

Later in the day we have U.S Growth figures – These are due out at 13:30pm and expectations for this is a level of 0.8%. This release can impact all major currencies as they may alter global attitude to risk.

For those with a Canadian Dollar interest we have growth figures for Canada at exactly the same time so be aware we may see a little volatility shortly after this period.

If you are looking to exchange any currency in the near future then it is well worth getting in touch with me. You can call me during U.K office hours on 01494 787 478 (Please ask for Daniel Wright) or you are welcome to email me with a description of what you need to do on Djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to put together a game plan together with you.

 

Sterling flat to start off the week – Mario Draghi speaks this evening, Mark Carney speaks tomorrow and the Federal Reserve have their say on Wednesday evening (Daniel Wright)

So we have seen a fairly flat start to the trading week for Sterling exchange rates but we have plenty for the market to feel off of in the next few days.

This evening Mario Draghi, head of the ECB (European Central Bank) speaks and usually investors and speculators hang off of his every word so expect a little volatility for the Euro before we arrive back on the trading floor tomorrow.

Speaking of speeches and central banks – Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England) is due to speak tomorrow at 10:45am during what appears to be another fairly quiet day in terms of economic data. lets be honest though the markets at present are always throwing up surprises so if you have an exchange to carry out involving either buying or selling Sterling then it may be worth you contacting me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk so that I can help explain not only the various options that you have and also put together a game plan with you to make the most of your money.

Wednesday evening is perhaps the biggest talking point of the week as we have the Federal Reserve (U.S) interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. Although many think this may not impact the Pound it does and it also has an effect on all major currencies as it alters global attitude to risk.

The Fed may give the markets an idea on when we may see further changes in interest rates this year, and with this being released outside of trading hours it is important that you ensure you have a proactive and reliable currency broker on your side. We offer lots of different contract types to assist our clients and to help them time their exchanges well. These contracts include forwards, stop loss and limit orders and may well be extremely vital to you this week if you have an exchange to make that is fairly imminent.

Limit orders may be the most favorable for clients this week as they work 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and you basically can decide on what price you would like to achieve and then should that price become available, even for a matter of seconds then your currency will be purchased for you automatically.

Limit orders can be cancelled or amended at any time and there is no cost to have them in the market with us or to alter them. With so much going on outside of trading hours they are fantastic tools to have should there be a big spike in your favour.

Make sure you aren’t the next client to miss the boat on a rate that you have been waiting for and get in contact with me directly today. You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you are looking to do and I will make sure I reply personally.

Buying Euro rates already falling from highs of Friday (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR buying rates got an uplifting boost for Euro buyers on Thursday and Friday last week.

This was due to an entirely predictable speech from the President of the European Central Bank (Mario Draghi) attempting to weaken the Euro, and utterly unpredictable positive public sector debt figures released by the UK Government on Friday.

Mario Draghi’s, speech on Thursday, listened to intently by the financial world, put pressure onto the Euro since he hinted at further cuts to bank deposit rates in March for the Eurozone as a whole.

His growth policy for the Eurozone, which has served well to lift them out of the grips of recession in 2015, is largely focussed on a cheap Euro in order to make European exports more competitive on the global market.

This is why he hinted at further emergency financial measures without any real commitment to doing so – to weaken the foundation of the Euro’s value. He made similar moves in October which is why markets were expecting a similar move from him.

On Friday the gains for Euro buyers doubled to 3 cents within two days thanks to unexpectedly positive public sector net borrowing figures. In December these were disastrous but in January these had more than halved – hence the positive turnaround with the austere government kicking back into gear.

However, with little data out until February now, the background forces which have caused Sterling to weaken so drastically since December will take centre stage and have already begun to weaken Sterling on the markets this morning:

  • The announcement last week from Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, that the UK will not be considering an interest rate rise until 2017.
  • The impact of the flooding on both infrastructure and economic output, to which the UK is still recovering.
  • A potential Brexit which is causing a cautious atmosphere in regards to Sterling on the international markets – similar to what was seen during the Scottish Referendum in 2014.

As such it seems that anyone looking to buy Euros may be wise to seize this gift on the exchange rats offered to you by Mr Draghi at the back-end of last week – recent history has proven that GBP/EUR rates of exchange still have ample room to fall further from their current levels.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros to buy before March should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and even if you do not require your Euros for a few weeks or months and are worried that rates of exchange may move against your favour in that time, these current levels can be fixed to avoid any harmful movements on GBP/EUR making your currency purchase more expensive. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Pound slide continues unabated – GBP/EUR and GBP/USD the worst affected (Joshua Privett)

The Pound was hit on multiple fronts yesterday, with its most serious slide in value occurring later on in the afternoon. GBP/EUR rates tumbled by more than two cents and GBP/USD is now at its lowest buying level in years.

Sterling’s slide, particularly for buying Euros, has been so sustained since December that currency exchange rates are actually making the news headlines – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35343792

Recent comments by George Osborne about the serious pressures facing the UK economy during 2016, were compounded by the negative outlook expressed by a normally optimistic Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, yesterday afternoon.

He mentioned there was ‘no need’ to address interest rake hikes at the moment, a far cry from his recent flexible stance, and mentioned the term ‘slowing economy’ to describe the UK.

With the man at the helm of the UK economy stating such remarks, it was understandable that Sterling’s recent fall continued into a further tail slide.

Unfortunately, this fall in buying rates for Euros and US Dollars is not a short-term trend.

The UK is in a slump due to its heavily reliance on a financial service industry which is seeing its biggest test since the financial crisis of 2007/8 – you only have to read the regularly articles in the news concerning Chinese stock-market crashes to get a general feel for current market sentiment.

The recent flooding isn’t helping either. Whilst winding down they are still on-going and its already telling on economic activity.

For example last week, data was released for retail sales growth in December. This was expected to give Sterling a bit of a boost after weeks of negative coverage.

Instead growth came in at a fifth of what was expected. Buying activity is being seriously hampered, and with similar results for our manufacturing and construction sectors, when data for January’s output is tallied in February, we’ll likely be seeing further Sterling weakness to come.

I strongly recommend that anyone with currency to purchase with Sterling in the coming months should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua. We discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to avoid the pitfalls in the markets expected over the coming weeks to maximise your Euro or Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current levels can actually be fixed for six months or more to avoid your purchase becoming more expensive.

Similarly Euro and Dollar sellers can do the same, and we can discuss your options on how to ride any further movements in your favour to their peak within the timeframe you have to complete your exchange. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Chinese growth figures tonight and Inflation data for the U.K tomorrow morning are key for the next 24 hours of Sterling movements (Daniel Wright)

So tonight we will see the latest growth figures from China and expectations are for the worst figure they have released in quite some time. Should this be the case then we may have weakness for the Australian Dollar and NEw Zealand Dollar yet may see further strength for the Euro, making it even more expensive to buy.

There are just so many factors impacting the value of Sterling against other currencies at present including uncertainty surrounding the ‘brexit’ oil prices, China, poor economic data and little potential for interest rate hikes this year.

Tomorrow morning will be the first economic data of note for the week, we have a flurry of inflation data out for the U.K at 09:30am and this may really set the scene for the rest of the trading day as long as China hasn’t had too much of an impact prior to its release.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speaks at 11:00 and you can be sure that investors and speculators will be hanging off of his every word, especially if inflation happens to have thrown up any surprises earlier in the morning.

All in all we are set for a fairly volatile day for Sterling exchange rates and however hard to predict I actually feel the Pound may have a better day than we have seen of late and that we may see a chunk taken out of some of the recent losses.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we pride ourselves on not only providing regular and informative market data but we also can handle currency exchanges too. All authors on this site work for a brokerage assisting clients with large currency transactions day in day out and we would love to assist you too. If you are new to the site or have been following for a long time then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly and I will be more than happy to respond to you personally.

You can get in touch with me by email on djw@currencies.co.uk or by contact me on  01494 787 478 (0044 1494 787 478 if abroad) during our U.K trading hours (08:30am – 18:00pm).

Pound still falling – GBP/EUR and GBP/USD the worst effected (Joshua Privett)

The Pound’s fall from grace on the currency markets has been significant and sustained. Since the middle of December GBP/EUR exchange rates have fallen by more than 12 cents and GBP/USD buying rates are at their worst levels in 6 years.

We are essentially seeing a complete paradigm shift to how 2015 began. The Euro was on the back-foot, with worries over recession and a potential ‘Grexit’, and Sterling was in a comparably strong position to the Dollar with expectations of a potential interest rate hike in the UK later on in the year.

By contrast:

  • The UK has now had an interest rate hike delayed until at least 2017, according to Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney, due to forecasts of historic low inflation for months to come.
  • Severe and tragic flooding is not only causing hundreds of millions in infrastructure damage but has already shown to have inhibited economic performance in December (the same can now be expected when figures for output during January will be tallied and released in February),
  • Fears of a Brexit are causing similar Pound weakness to what was seen during the Scottish Referendum in 2014 (financial markets rarely respond well to changes in the status quo).

The Euro is by contrast benefiting well from the most recent bout of global uncertainty caused by deteriorating events in China.

Similarly to October when the first look into China’s slowing economy caused GBP/EUR to fall to the 1.33’s, fearful investors in the stock market sold off their assets and chose to store their liquidity in the Euro due to its relative cheapness and recently proven commitment to stability. The sudden spike in demand is causing its value to sky-rocket.

This is why the recent slide on GBP/EUR took a more rapid turn on Friday, with a day high of 1.328 contrasting a day low of 1.298. The fact that rates fell so easily in a single day through a traditional resistance level set at 1.30 suggests there is still room for Sterling to fall further on the markets.

Given that the Pound is under pressure from medium to long-term factors rather than short-term stumbling blocks, those with a Euro or Dollar requirement over the next few months are currently still facing much more risk than opportunity in the current markets.

I strongly recommend that anyone planning a foreign currency purchase in the coming months should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk over the weekend whilst currency markets are inactive. I will reply personally to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return in a falling market. 

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current levels of exchange can be fixed for up to a year to avoid further harmful movements making your exchange exceedingly expensive.

Anyone hoping to buy Sterling can do the same, and I will explain your options on how to ride these current movements in your favour to their peak in the time period you have to complete your transfer.