Tag Archives: pound

Sterling could be in for a very tough Winter…

Sterling has had a truly remarkable year making firm gains against pretty much all currencies and presenting some of the best rates to buy a foreign currency with in years. GBPUSD hit a 5 year high, GBPEUR has hit a two year high (and not far off a 6 year high!) and GBPNZD and GBPAUD are also both at multi year highs… Clearly sterling is faring well but this now begs the question will it continue?

October is looking like a tough month for the pound  with economic releases from September’s data likely to be poor owing to lower business and consumer confidence due to the Scottish referendum. I feel this is likely to feed into the rest of the year and with it interest rate hike expectations (currently expected in April) liable to be pushed back further. Economic growth in the UK is currently running at 0.8% and with house prices not rising as fast as previously I think the need to raise rates will dampen in Q4.

Tomorrow is some very important Eurozone news on Inflation which will be indicative of how much QE we can expect Thursday from the ECB. With so much volatility surrounding this release making some careful plans ready to trade on the news seems sensible.

I couldn’t possibly fit everything important in one post, would you read the whole article anyway? So if you need to consider a currency exchange and wish for further information please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I work as a foreign exchange dealer and we focus on a personal proactive service to help you get the most from the market. Please contact me for more information regarding your situation.

Sterling on the up, will the trend continue? (Mike Vaughan)

This afternoon the pound rallied against a host of currencies following a speech from Bank of England governor Mark Carney indicating that households should be prepared for higher borrowing costs as he suggested the point at which the bank will consider raising rates is getting closer. As a result the pound has surged to fresh highs during a week that has been relatively quiet data wise.

Due to it being relatively quiet I thought I would be an opportune time to highlight the movements we have seen for sterling throughout the course of this year. This will give you an insight as to current market trends and may influence your decision regarding your own individual money transfer.

Sterling against the green back (US dollar) has seen a high/low this year ranging from 1.7160-1.6094 a 6.6% shift (majority of this having been seen in the past three weeks). The year average sits in the region of 1.65 so the current buy levels of 1.64 is about par for the course this year.

Looking at the single currency and since the 1st January the overriding trend has been in the pounds favour. On January the 1st levels sat at 1.2045 peaking at 1.28 last week (a 5.9% shift and fresh two year high). Average trade levels sit at approximately 1.2450 so with current levels sitting at 1.2750 Euro buyers are ahead of the game. If I was buying Euros I would view the current levels as an opportunity.

Finally looking at the Australian dollar and recently the GBP/AUD pairing has seen one of the biggest swings with the pound having rallied 12 cents since the 8th September. Current levels are now very much more in line with January’s price of 1.86. It peaked at 1.90 late January before slumping to the year low of 1.72 earlier this month (10.5% high/low range). Yearly averages sit roughly at 1.81 so again current prices are looking good for AUD buyers.

As you can see the pound is currently seeing some good value against a number of currencies sitting at a near 6 month high against the AUD and over a two year high against the Euro. To take advantage or get more information on the currency service we provide then please call the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling remains stable in slow week for economic data (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has made minor gains against most majors this week so far however important economic data is extremely thin on the ground and I would expect this to be the case during trading tomorrow as well.

Sterling exchange rates had a very volatile ride over the majority of September as investors and speculators alike geared themselves up for what may come from the Scottish referendum. Now that the dust appears to have settled on that matter we have seen a little Sterling strength against most major currencies as we have a little certainty both regarding the economy and politically bought back to the market.

The Pound is close to a half a year high against the Australian Dollar today though which is refreshing news for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars in the coming days and weeks, whilst sat on the cusp of a two and a half year high against the Euro and the highest rate against the Dollar for the past few weeks so if you are looking to buy foreign currency then now certainly isn’t the worst of timing.

Tomorrow is again extremely quite with regard to economic data so unless any major surprises crop up I would expect a fairly range bound day which could actually be the ideal time to take a moment to get in touch with us directly should you have an up and coming currency transfer to make involving either buying or indeed selling the Pound.

I can help you personally with either and do not only pride myself on an efficient level of service but also on beating the exchange rates of banks and other currency brokers, so anyone that does contact me through this site can ensure that I will do my very best to make sure they make a significant enough saving to use the company I work for rather than their current  provider.

All you would need to do if you would like a quote or more information on the service I can provide is to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and i will be more than happy to contact you personally to let you know how I can assist you.

Scotland decides on NO – What impact has this had on the Pound and what may we see for Sterling in the coming weeks? (Daniel Wright)

Scotland decides to stay in the U.K

Following an extremely volatile few weeks for the Pound we finally have the decision from the Scottish referendum and Scotland has decided to stay with the United kingdom giving the pound a little strength against most major currencies.

We saw a huge turnout as far as voting goes (84%) which just goes to show how much this has captivated Scotland and divided opinion north of the border. Sterling has had a roller coaster ride against all major currencies over the past few weeks as polls have swung back and forth both ways after we had months of the markets almost assuming we would see a No vote. More importantly what this means for the Pound is that it has bought both economic and political certainty to the U.K for the time being, both of which should give the Pound a little strength in the coming days.

Investors and speculators alike hate uncertainty and the mere fact that the referendum had seemingly been in the balance has been holding Sterling back recently even with fairly solid economic data still being released almost on a daily basis. Sterling exchange rates have moved around three and a half cents from high to low against the Euro, four cents against the Dollar and ten cents against the Australian Dollar in the past two weeks as the markets try to second guess just what would happen with the vote.

Finally on Friday morning the decision came and I am pleased to say the U.K will indeed remain as one and now hopefully politicians and the Bank of England can fully concentrate on pushing the economy forward as a whole, rather than having to unravel an exceedingly complicated tangle that may have cast a grey cloud over the Pound and kept it weak for months to come.

If you find this site of use and would like assistance with any pending currency transfers involving either buying or indeed selling the Pound then feel free to contact me by email with a brief description of what you are looking to exchange and a contact number and I will be happy to get in touch. You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk

So what does this mean for me if I have currency to exchange?

Being an unprecedented situation, nobody really knows the exact impact this will have on Sterling but in my personal opinion I now feel that the Pound will kick on and gain a little strength over major currencies and heads can now turn towards if or indeed when interest rates may rise.

For those looking to sell foreign currency I would say now could be the time to secure your exchange rate. If you take the Euro as an example, it was only a few weeks ago that the European Central Bank not only cut interest rates but also indicated a few changes in Fiscal policy coming up.

Most notable of these is QE (Quantitative Easing). QE can generally weaken a currency once put into place and was one of the big reasons we saw both Sterling and the Dollar weaken a lot over the past few years. In my opinion once the dust has settled over the referendum the focus will come back on to Europe which still has huge problems to tackle and I feel the Euro could be in for a tough time of things.One must remember however we have crossed this bridge before and The Euro is a powerful beast. Only two years ago most analysts expected a rise through 1.30 when the Euro had even more problems than they do today and within a few months it was back below 1.20.

In essence the key thing you need to make sure you do is to keep in close contact with a currency broker no matter what your requirement in these particularly volatile times. Here at FCD we pride ourselves on not only the very best rates of exchange but also in being extremely proactive for our clients, making them aware of any spikes in their favour or drops against them.

We can’t let you know if we aren’t aware of what you are looking to do so make sure you email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help you personally. Sterling is trading at over a two year high against the Euro, a two week high against the Dollar and the highest we have seen against the Australian Dollar since March this year. If you would like to speak with one of our experienced and knowledgeable traders about any currency pairing then feel free to call us on 01494 787 478 or email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to call you personally.

Scotland says No which helps GBPEUR Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates briefly hit their highest level in over two years on early Friday morning as the Scottish voted to stay part of the United Kingdom. The Pound immediately shot up to 1.28 for a very short time before ending the day nearer to 1.27.

It appears as though global investors and short term profit takers were eager to ‘fill their boots’ at 1.28 immediately after the announcement.

With the news having been released the currency markets appear at least for now to be a little more settled. The vote was 55/45 and personally I thought it would have been a wider difference.

Many people have been asking me recently if Scotland stays part of the UK then surely this would give rise to Sterling strength. My answer is yes but only for a short period of time as proved on Friday morning.

With such a large amount of people disillusioned at the result this could cause further instability in political terms which often then negatively impacts the currency involved. Therefore, don’t expect Sterling to rise too much just because the vote is now clear.

At 1pm tomorrow ECB President Mario Draghi is due to make a speech which will likely cover the recent decision to cut interest rates and introduce further QE for the Eurozone. Any negative comments during the speech could see Sterling Euro exchange rates pick up later in the afternoon.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Calm before the storm? (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling reached its highest level against the single currency since August 2012 reaching a peak of 1.273 this afternoon – is this the calm before the storm? With the Scottish independence vote well under-way the market is eagerly awaiting the result of the vote expected for release early Friday morning (expected around 07:00). A yes vote is likely to be catastrophic for the pound with some analysts suggesting as much as a 10% drop in value for sterling, in contrast a no vote will bring a sigh of relief to many and I would look for the pound to fund support in excess of 1% across the major currencies.

Should you wish to remove the uncertainty our trading lines will be open for another few hours and there is still time to help. Email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

As against the Euro, sterling has continued its strong rally against the Australian dollar having shifted 10 cents in last 10 days (5.8%). This makes a difference of AUD 20,000 on a £200k transfer.

Data from Australia has been relatively light this week highlighting how dominant sterling has been and just how the Scottish independence vote is influencing the value of the pound. With voting having started this morning and the results scheduled for 07:30 tomorrow morning, the next 24 hours are likely to be extremely volatile. I for one believe the ‘no’ camp will prevail and this is bound to lend further support to sterling and I would look for a shift towards 1.85.

Overnight the RBA bulletin gave little insight as to future monetary policy but I still believe the RBA will be uncomfortable with the value of the dollar and this 10 cent shift will have been a welcome move

To get assistance with your foreign exchange and to get the best deal on the market email Mike for more information at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Market volatility set to continue in the run up to the Scottish Independence vote on the 18th (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling exchange rates have found some support today as the latest poll for the Scottish independence vote suggested the vote for no was creeping ahead of the yes camp. This volatility is set to continue in the run up to the vote on the 18th.

With so much focus on this vote it is easy to forget the important data releases that are still scheduled. Tomorrow’s data is focused mainly on the Euro Zone and US with employment figures and industrial production data released by Eurostat at 10:00 tomorrow morning, followed by the important US retail sales data state side at 13:30.

Retails sales data is expected to show a good improvement and should in theory lend support to the greenback. It is important to keep an eye on all data sets as it is very easy to simply focus on one area. Of course the Scottish referendum vote is the main driver for sterling currently but should you like an overview of other important releases and the potential impact they might have on your currency transfer then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

AUD

Following the pounds losses earlier this week (due to Sundays poll suggesting the ‘yes’ vote was taking the lead in the Scottish referendum) the pound has rebounded five cents or nearly 3% since Monday. The move came about as the latest opinion poll puts the ‘no’ vote at 53%  – for me the vote is likely to be a no and it is this that I believe will lend more support to sterling and push levels back though the 1.80 level. For this reasons should you be selling AUD then current rates should still look like an opportunity.

Overnight the Australian unemployment data fell to 6.1% from 6.4% but did little to affect the AUD exchange rate suggesting the current market is dominated by the movement of sterling. This volatility is set to continue for the next week until the vote passes on the 18th.

To get more information on the currency service we provide please contact the office on 01494 787478. To help you make the most of your currency it is important you get as much information as possible. Our market knowledge is available for any client and we are happy to assist with any bank to bank money exchange not matter how big or small. For more information please email Mike mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

Ignore the Scottish Referendum at your peril!

I first wrote of the negative consequences of the Scottish vote in May (which you can read here) and so far have not been proved wrong. The Yes campaign has been massively underestimated and the lack of economic clarity from either side has the pound reeling.

It would be most damaging for the pound if Scotland did declare independence since interest rate expectations would be pushed right back as the Bank of England needed time to assess the fallout from such a move. There would be many months of political and legal wranglings over currency and exactly how debts would be split, all of this would not fit in with most investors more recent views of a ‘United’ Kingdom finally on its path to future economic success. The strength of sterling this summer is primarily down to interest rate hike expectations which remain high but if pushed out would cause the pound to go lower.

So how do I trade the Scottish Referendum, when should I buy or sell my Sterling?

It seems doubtful any yes vote would triumph but with the spread between the yes and no vote having reduced from 22 points to 6 in recent polls, it would be foolish to ignore the potentially major repercussions on the market. The fairly heavy sterling losses since Monday could be indicative of what will happen ahead of the referendum. Often in these situations the currency concerned would strengthen following the result as it provides certainty again. I think therefore if you need to buy the pound look out for spikes in your favour and move before the referendum, if you are too busy to watch the market part of our service is to monitor rates for clients, just drop me a note on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

If you are buying a foreign currency with the pound you might want to move very soon or wait until after the referendum to see if the rate goes back up. However there are no guarantees any dent in confidence will be restored, there is a likelihood the losses for sterling will intensify as we approach the referendum date 18th September.

Having some sort of currency strategy is always sensible and we work as currency specialists expert in the safe transfer of money internationally at commercial exchange rates. If you would like any information or assistance concerning a transfer you need to consider I would be happy to hear from you and offer some practical solutions.

Jonathan

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling falls as the Pound falls out of fashion due to Scottish referendum polls easing closer – Weakness for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

A quick update from me to let you know that Sterling has been falling for the past 24 hours, following news from the polls over in Scotland that the referendum is currently a lot closer than had been thought. The reason this has led to the Pound dropping is because it has now cast a grey cloud over the U.K both in terms of economic and political uncertainty – Both factors that can have quite an impact on the strength of a particular currency.

With the referendum due on the 18th September we may we be set for an extremely volatile few weeks for Sterling so it is imperative that if you have the requirement to either buy or sell foreign currency in the coming weeks or indeed months then you should let me know exactly what your need will be. We have many tools here designed to assist you with getting the most out of your money ranging from being your eyes and ears on the market and informing you of movements either in your favour or against you, to forward contracts, limits orders and stop losses.

GBPEUR

Sterling is actually trading almost 10% higher now against the Euro than it had been last summer (see graph) so if you are in the process of buying a property in Europe even with the drop exchange rates are still extremely favourable. We have a couple of key economic data releases still to come out this week with the Bank of England interest rate decision tomorrow at 12:00pm, the European Central Bank interest rate decision at 12:45pm and the ECB press conference from 13:30pm onwards. The ECB press conference can actually lead to an extremely volatile period for the Euro, and the main focus will be on whether or not they do decide to take any action with QE (Quantitative Easing).

Even the mere mention of it may weaken the Euro slightly but of course beware that if they rule it out in the short term then the Euro may strengthen further. Finally on Friday at 13:30pm we have Non-Farm Payroll data over in America. This release can have an effect on all major currencies as it can change global attitude to risk so no matter what your need it is well worth having an eye on the market on Friday afternoon.

If you have a requirement in the future but you do not yet have the full availability of funds you can book out a forward contract. This is where you can book a rate out for up to a year in advance with just a small deposit, removing the risk of the currency market making your purchase any more expensive in the future. This is ideal if you are in the process of buying a property overseas as you can know exactly how much the property is going to cost you today and eliminate the risk of the Pound dropping away again and missing out on this great opportunity. I look forward to speaking with you if you have any questions or queries or you would like to book out a rate of exchange.

IF YOU ARE RECEIVING THESE REPORTS AND FIND THEM OF USE THEN WHY NOT CLICK HERE TO REGISTER FOR A FREE, NO OBLIGATION TRADING FACILITY TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH YOU CAN SAVE OVER YOUR BANK AND CURRENT BROKER. IT TAKES JUST TWO MINUTES TO COMPLETE AND MAY SAVE YOU £1000s!

Pound at lowest level against the US dollar in six months (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has had a poor day against most majors but notably reaching its lowest level against the greenback since March and bringing the dollars gains against the pound to nearly 4% since July. The movements today appear to have come about following  after a poll by YouGov indicated rising support for the pro-Scottish independence “Yes” campaign.

The poll indicated the lead held by the “No” campaign to reject independence had narrowed to six points from 22 points since the beginning of August. As my colleague Colm mentioned below, the uncertainty this has created for investors has caused the sell off for the pound creating a 1 cent loss against the Euro and US dollar, this may well be a short term reaction, and for me has created some good sell prices for the Euro.

The rest of the week remains busy with the focus tomorrow on Euro Zone retail sales at 10:00 (expected to show a sharp decline), the Bank of Canada interest rate decision and accompanying statement at 15:00 followed by the US FED beige book at 19:00

Looking at Thursday and this is set to be the busiest day of the week with the Bank of England and European Central Bank releasing their interest rate decisions at 12:00 and 12:45 respectively. For me both central banks will keep the base rate on hold but the key area to focus on will be Mario Draghi’s press conference at 13:30. With inflation figures having fallen to their lowest in five years, this is putting more pressure on the Euro Zone to act against deflationary pressures and it is this pressure that could result in the Euro weakening tomorrow afternoon.

Should you have a foreign exchange transaction to arrange and you would like more information on the currency service we provide then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

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