Tag Archives: pound

GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD sliding, only GBP/USD likely to rise (Joshua Privett)

After a dramatic week for the Pound and the intervention of a sitting US President, GBP/EUR and GBP/AUD are starting to move back down after the near two month highs reached yesterday.

This is likely due to poor UK growth figures for the first quarter of this year, which has caused the dominant story of the positive effects of Obama’s visit on the Remain campaign to fade into the background.

The only reason GBP/USD is on the rise is due to poor US housing data.

With popularity ratings higher than our own PM in the UK, Obama’s initially gentle and then firmer suggestions that the UK will be better off in the EU rather than out of it, has been received overwhelmingly positively by financial markets. Frankly, by a surprising amount.

But Polls are still well within the margin of error, and with such a large swathe of the population still undecided, UK based companies will have to seriously re-evaluate their exposure ahead of the Referendum vote. Similar to February when Boris Johnson announced that he was joining the Leave campaign, mass Pound sell-offs will likely occur unless the Remain camp accrues a commanding lead.

Particularly since whilst the Remain camp are ahead, polls on voter turnout itself favour the Leave camp overwhelmingly.

In the short term there is no additional data out between now and the start of may which is expected to assist Euro buyers, the final two weeks of each month are relatively quiet compared to the onslaught of information at the beginning, so expect severe volatility on GBP/EUR and GBP/AUD next week.

With rates on GBP/EUR down 0.7 cents and rates on GBP/AUD down 1.4 cents from the highs of yesterday, and with UK growth slowing by a third compared to the previous quarter, this dominant narrative will likely see gradual slides on buying rates in the run up to May.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Joshua. We can discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return, particularly those whose requirements may be a month or two away.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current levels can be fixed to avoid potential drops on the currency markets as we edge closer to the Referendum affecting your transfer.

Those with more immediate requirements can receive a free, competitive quote, whist Euro and Dollar sellers can reach out and I will outline how best to safely ride the expected movements in your favour to any peaks which emerge in the short-term. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Sterling exchange rates continue their surprising climb, offering a great short term opportunity? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound made gains across the board again today, following on from what was a surprising rebound last week which has provided those looking to convert Sterling into another currency, with a great short term opportunity.

As we all know, currency exchange rates don’t move in straight lines and I personally view this recent market movement as a short term opportunity to take advantage of, as opposed to the beginning of long term upward trend for Sterling exchange rates.

I’m of this opinion for a number of reasons. Firstly, I’m not sold on the reasoning behind this recent boost to Sterling’s value. It’s being predominantly put down to the most recent ‘Brexit’ polls suggesting that the ‘Remain’ camp is now in the lead, although I think it takes a bit more than this to shift market’s so substantially and I think speculators, looking to make a quick buck have been bargain hunting in large numbers which has driven up Sterling’s value. Once the profit taking begins I think we can expect sharp falls for the Pound once again, similar to those we saw just a few weeks ago at the beginning of the month.

Also, I think that US President Barack Obama’s recent statements underlining the UK Government’s desire for the UK to stay within the Eurozone has been met well by the marketplace, boosting sentiment for the short term. Once again I’m not expecting this sentiment to last, as it will only take one celebrity or person of significance to lend their support to the ‘Leave’ campaign and leave us with similar market conditions to those just after Boris Johnson opted to support the ‘Leave’ campaign, when Sterling rates of exchange dropped sharply.

There are many arguments in favor of remaining within the Eurozone, and the current polls are suggesting that the UK will. But irrespective of these factors it’s highly likely that we’ll continue to experience headwinds in the lead up to the 23rd of June when we have our vote, therefore investors will need to take advantage of the opportunities that arise in that time and as I’ve previously stated, I think that the current buying opportunities on the likes of GBPEUR, GBPUSD and GBPAUD will be short term.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy a foreign currency it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also contact me directly on 01494 787 478 if you would like to discuss anything in further detail, just ask for Joseph. 

 

GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD all rise before the weekend (Joshua Privett)

Buying rates for Euros and Dollars saw some truly uplifting gains ahead of the weekend, with GBP/EUR being the standout performer, reaching 1.28 for the first time in almost two months.

Euro buyers, and anyone with GBP/USD, or GBP/AUD requirements, can lay their thanks for this turnaround squarely at the feet of Obama’s visit to the UK, and the overall positive impacts markets feel this will have on the likelihood of the UK remaining part of the EU.

Obama himself is even more popular than our own PM here, and his firm representation of the international community’s support for a Britain stronger in Europe is fully expected to translate into votes.

Particularly since his additional statements over the weekend that a UK outside of the EU would go to the back of the queue for trade deals with the US – the decision to leave is now a graver one.

At least, this is clearly how markets reacted to the news, which is why Sterling was up against all major currencies.

Polls are, however, still alarmingly close. Most recently it was 39% apiece for the Leave and Remain camps, with 12% of the population undecided and the rest likely not to vote.

Once May arrives companies will have to seriously consider their financial exposure in the run up to the June vote. We already saw mass sell-offs of the Pound in February when Boris Johnson joined the Leave campaign, and any repeats will see similar falls on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD as demand for Sterling wavers.

Over the weekend markets will be closed but recent poll data will be released for markets to trade on and react to come Monday morning. Obama’s visit may simply result in a short-term bump as he leaves the UK later toda.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me directly on jjp@currencies.co.uk

If you email me with a brief description of your upcoming need for currency over the next few months, and the best number to reach you on come Monday morning, I can then contact you directly once markets open.

I can convey how the most recent poll data has effected trading, and whether the more negative tone of the latter part of Obama’s visit will cause any reverse in trend as the week continues for Euro and Dollar buyers alike. We can then discuss a strategy for your transfer based on this to maximise your Euro and Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and Euro or Dollar sellers can also get in contact to discuss your options .

 

Buying Euro rates peaked again? (Joshua Privett)

Buying Euro rates have been teasing the 1.27 mark over the past three business days, presenting 5 cent gains for anyone with a GBP/EUR requirement since last Monday.

Yesterday’s European Central Bank meeting saw rates edging back into the 1.26’s with the decision to keep European interest rates on hold, and a confident appraisal of the recent gains in growth and unemployment from the Bank’s President Mario Draghi, allowing the recent confidence in the Euro to expand further.

Yet this morning, slight dips in Eurozone manufacturing and services performance has allowed the central level to pip just above 1.27 once more. This seems to be a recurring story over the past few business days.

The common term for this occurrence is as a ‘level of resistance’.

The main reason for this near stalemate is the fact that the European Central Bank’s policies are currently under fire for being too extreme.  The quantitative easing and interest rates at 0% which have been in effect for a number of months, and were the main reason why last year the Euro moved above 1.30 last year for the first time in 6 years, are being criticised.

This is the first time the Eurozone’s policies are being criticised openly by MP’s, and with the German Finance Minister leading the charge, currency markets may have to wrestle with the prospect of a reduction in the Eurozone’s current emergency measures to stimulate growth.

Should this scenario occur, the value of the Euro will soar to newer heights, and we will likely be getting more information over the weekend concerning this.

With a level of resistance having been reached, and with the combined economic argument above and the political argument of the looming Referendum, GBP/EUR is forecasted for further heavy falls as we edge closer to June. This current level of resistance around the high 1.26’s, low 1.27’s could be the last peak before the heavy campaign season in May starts to bite into rates.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro return.

Short term opportunities may still emerge, and a number of options open to Euro buyers such as rate alerts, automatic buy orders and ‘hedging your bets’ are useful avenues to manage your risk and ensure you buy at any peaks which emerge.

These current levels can also be fixed for those who do not need to buy their Euros until a later date. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere.

Euro sellers also feel free to get in contact, and I shall explain how best to ride the expected movements in your favour – if you have time to wait – come May and June. jjp@currencies.co.uk

All eyes on the European Central Bank this Thursday -Sterling exchange rates in form today (Daniel Wright)

Following another positive day for Sterling exchange rates against most major currencies, it does appear that the Pound is slowly coming back into fashion.

We had very little in terms of economic data out today however there does appear to be a feel good factor surrounding Sterling this week so far. With the Government hell bent on having the U.K remain in the EU I feel that this is what will end up happening and that the markets are starting to correct themselves a little accordingly.

All eyes will no doubt now be on head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi on Thursday as we have the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference at 12:45pm and 13:30pm respectively.

THis release can impact all major currencies and last time we had the ECB press conference, GBP/EUR moved by over 4 cents throughout the afternoon so expect market volatility on Thursday. A 4 cent movement would mean buying €100,000 would cost you an extra £2400 or get £2400 cheaper if it goes the right way for you.

It is highly important to have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side during releases such as this and we can help you on that front. We have a range of contract options available including a limit order where you can set a particular rate you wish to buy at, and if you do get a sudden spike then it gets bought automatically.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

Buying rates for Euros and Dollars repeat rally (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR and GBP/USD exchange rates have seen a repeat performance to the start of March, with buying Euro rates being the stand-out performer showing gains of 3 cents for anyone holding Sterling.

This rally for the Pound has been attributed to the improvements in inflation and retail sales figures resulting from an early Easter, which correlates to a healthy increase in spending activity. Alongside a near resolution in the Tata Steel crisis, this has translated into greater confidence in the Pound.

Similarly the first few weeks of March saw gains for buying rates on Euros and Dollars when UK unemployment fell to 10 year lows at the same time as a recovery in oil prices.

If we are taking March as an example, however, it is likely that the buying rates currently available are set to be short-lived.

Politics takes over in the second half of the month when the flood of economic performance data dwindles to a trickle, and unfortunately the UK is nearing a very uncertain and serious political and economic fork in the road.

The most recent poll by The Economist puts the Remain camp level with the Leave campaign at 39%, with 12% of the population undecided and 10% of those polled likely to abstain from voting.

The EU Referendum is now just over two months away, and we have already been experiencing for a month the kind of market activity which will likely see the Pound weaken as we edge closer to June.

Currency markets rarely enjoy changes to the status quo, and businesses are already moving their funds into the Euro ahead of the Referendum to protect the value of their capital, given that polls are showing the race to be alarmingly close.

The Eurozone has already attracted more investment in the first three months of this year than the entirety of 2015 put together, around €215bn. I have personally been working with a number of businesses at their request to do the same since February.

This rise in demand for the Euro is what has continually been making the single currency a more expensive prospect. With the hit to Cameron’s credibility following the ‘Panama Papers’ scandal, this outflow of capital from the UK, similar to what preceded the Scottish Referendum, will likely continue.

Tuesday is expected to see the Euro regain its recent losses against Sterling with the release of the economic sentiment survey for the EU, which is forecasted to be overwhelmingly positive in the face of this staggering amount of recent foreign investment.

With Monday potentially showing some final opportunities for Euro and Dollar buyers before we enter a difficult two weeks in the run-up to May, I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options available to you in order to maximise your currency return.

I will reply personally before currency markets open again on Monday morning. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and even if you do not require your currency for a few months, there are ways to ‘fix’ rates of exchange for a pre-determined time set by you, or even install automatic buy orders at desired levels set by you to avoid missing out on any realistic opportunities which emerge in the short-term.

A brief description of your situation, and the best number to reach you on tomorrow morning will streamline the process rather than simple email correspondance.

Euro and Dollar sellers can do the same, and I will explain how best to ride the expected movements in your favour to any peaks which emerge within the timeframe you have to complete your transfer.

Sterling exchange rates – What to expect next week (Daniel Wright)

We have a number of key data releases out next week around the world, not to forget any further news on the referendum that may throw a little into the mix.

The real key focus for anyone looking to buy or sell Euros will be the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference due out on Thursday afternoon. Investors will be looking for any change in fiscal policy and also just as importantly any indications on future decisions.

Monday, APR 20

24h EMU EUR IMF Meeting
21:45 NZ NZD Consumer Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)
21:45 NZ NZD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Q1)
14:00 US USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Apr)
TUESDAY, APR 19
01:30 AU AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes
09:00 DE EUR ZEW Survey – Current Situation (Apr)
09:00 DE EUR ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Apr)
09:00 EMU EUR ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Apr)
12:30 US USD Building Permits (MoM) (Mar)
12:30 US USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Mar)
13:30 AU AUD RBA’s Governor Glenn Stevens Speech
15:00 CA CAD BoC Governor Poloz Speech
WEDNESDAY, APR 20
06:00 DE EUR Producer Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
06:00 DE EUR Producer Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
09:00 CH CHF ZEW Survey – Expectations (Apr)
n/a DE EUR 10-y Bond Auction
23:50 JP JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Apr 15)
23:50 JP JPY Foreign bond investment (Apr 15)
THURSDAY, APR 21
01:30 AU AUD National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q1)
08:30 UK GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) (Mar)
08:30 UK GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
08:30 UK GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) (Mar)
08:30 UK GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
08:30 UK GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Mar)
11:45 EMU EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr 21)
12:30 US USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Apr 8)
12:30 US USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 15)
12:30 US USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Apr)
12:30 EMU EUR ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference
13:00 US USD Housing Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
14:00 US USD CB Leading Indicator (MoM) (Mar)
FRIDAY, APR 22
04:30 JP JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (Feb)
07:30 DE EUR Markit PMI Composite (Apr)
07:30 DE EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
07:30 DE EUR Markit Services PMI (Apr)
08:00 DE EUR IFO – Business Climate (Apr)
08:00 DE EUR IFO – Current Assessment (Apr)
08:00 DE EUR IFO – Expectations (Apr)
08:00 EMU EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
08:00 EMU EUR Markit Services PMI (Apr)
08:00 EMU EUR Markit PMI Composite (Apr)
13:30 CA CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
13:30 CA CAD Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM) (Mar)
13:30 CA CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
13:30 CA CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (Mar)
13:30 CA CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Mar)
13:45 US USD Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr)  
13:45 US USD Markit Services PMI (Apr)
13:45 US USD Markit PMI Composite (Apr)
17:00 US USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

If you have a currency exchange to carry out and you would like to know how all of these releases may impact your rate of exchange then we can explain everything to you and help you save a great deal of money.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

Sterling exchange rates continue the charge against Euro and Swiss Franc – Dollar gains back a little ground (Daniel Wright)

The positive trend for Sterling continued against most major currencies today, hitting 1.26 against the Euro and making good gains against the Swiss Franc. There were minor losses against the Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar but in general the Pound just seems like it has come ever so slightly back into fashion.

This follows positive inflation figures and a number of pieces of good news for those campaigning to stay in the European Union. My personal opinion regarding the referendum now (and I may be wrong) is that I feel we vote to stay and that Sterling may rise.

There are far too many analysts and organisations out there looking for the headlines that are more than happy to pitch doom and gloom to the general public and although there is the potential for it to happen, there is a much higher chance of Sterling going back up than there is of it dropping by 20% as some have said.

Generally with elections and referendums such as this the group in the undecided camp tend to stick with what they know and now that the Government have sent out leaflets confirming that even if we leave we actually will almost end up on the same terms with many of the matters that annoy people there is no real good solid reason for us to go.

Tomorrow we have the Bank of England interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 12:00pm. Positive news from these will have the potential to push us up even further and considering Sterling has dropped by so much this year, even the slightest piece of good news give us room to strengthen considerably.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Sterling exchange rates start the week on the front foot (Daniel Wright)

Sterling found rare form in trading today as we saw gains for the Pound against all major currencies.

A huge GBP/JPY transaction in early morning trading and the positive news regarding jobs at Tata steel led to Sterling starting the day off on the front foot and that trend generally continued throughout the trading day.

This bought a great opportunity for those looking to buy foreign currency after what has been a fairly dire few weeks for Sterling against pretty much every currency.

Will Sterling strength continue this week?

The main question now is will Sterling continue to gain ground this week and the answer may lie in how inflation levels come out for the U.K tomorrow morning. As I mentioned in my post on Saturday the Pound really needs a catalyst to give it some strength and if inflation has risen then this may be the catalyst we are looking for. Inflation is one of the key factors that will impact an interest rate decision and although there is no doubt we will not see rate movements anytime soon a rise inflation will still be taken as positive.

On Thursday we have the Bank of England Interest rate decision, meeting minutes and monetary policy summary. This is the sort of data release that can lead to sharp volatility as surprises can pop up in the minutes from the meeting. Investors and speculators will sift through them with a fine toothed comb looking for signs for what the next BOE move may be.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Sterling weekly round up and the week ahead (Dayle Littlejohn)

For clients that read my article last Sunday they should have benefited from my predictions. I predicted the Pound would have a good start to the week and then start to taper off until Friday when Manufacturing and Production numbers were released and the Pound would then sharply fall.

For new clients that got in touch Monday and traded throughout Monday, they would have received the best rates possible last week. Click here to see last week’s posts.

Negative press from UK Prime Minister David Cameron was a major talking point last week and I expect this will continue throughout this week. Mr Cameron has been questioned about an offshore account set up by his late father, which allowed the UK Prime Minister to avoid paying tax.

If there wasn’t a referendum less than 3 months away I don’t think this news would have had such a negative impact on the Pound. However I am in no doubt votes are been gained for the ‘out’ campaign due to people losing faith in the Prime Minister.

Again this week I expect a mass buy of the cheap Pound by investors Monday Morning. Tuesday is the latest inflation numbers for the UK. A slight rise is expected therefore if I were trading this week I would possibly trade Tuesday morning after the data release. However it’s important to analyse both currencies that you are trading before making a decision of when to trade.

Thursday the Bank of England releases their latest Interest Rate decision. The decision itself should be a non event however when the Governor addresses the public shortly after I wouldn’t be surprised to see a negative outlook painted due to a possible ‘Brexit’ on the horizon.

If you are looking to buy a foreign currency this year or need to purchase the Pound, the currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than the high street banks and other brokerages. I specialise in property purchases and sales. Therefore if you are buying or selling a property this year and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn. Please note I am not in the office until Monday morning after 8.30am.

The more information you provide me, the more information I can provide you. Below is a list of what I require: your name, currency pair, brief description of requirement, amount, budget, timescales, telephone number and convenient time to call.

I look forward to speaking with you