Tag Archives: pound

How will UKIP affect sterling?

UKIP continue to make gains in polls and are certainly likely to be a thorn in the side of the more established parties, indeed they already have been. But is this more a reflection of the tough times ahead for the UK (and the pound) or a flash in the pan protest vote?

UKIP have the power to severely undermine confidence in sterling. there is tremendous uncertainty posed by a party with no solid economic idea from what I have seen. Aside from promising to withdraw from Europe and playing on peoples immigration fears it is difficult to find concrete policy. Let it be known that any withdrawal from Europe would have wide reaching consequences for the UK economy and hence the pound. Whilst it might be welcomed we examine the relationship with Europe the economic benefits of being part of Europe should not be underestimated.

We shall learn much more about the true effects of UKIP on the pound in the next few months as we have bi-election and then the General Election in May 2015. The effect on sterling from increased political uncertainty will undoubtedly be negative and anyone hoping to see sterling keep climbing in 2014 and beyond might be disappointed.

To keep up to date with the pound and how important events affect your exchange please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Retail sales tomorrow morning and growth figures on Friday to be key for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

Tomorrow morning we see the release of Retail Sales figures for the U.K followed by GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures on Friday morning.

Retail Sales are expected to have dropped off a little and growth figures are due to show economic growth for the third quarter of 2014 to be at 0.7%.

Sterling has had a fairly flat week as far as currency movements go so these next few days may give us a grandstand finish.

If you are looking to exchange foreign currency in the next few days or indeed weeks then feel free to get in touch with me directly, even if you want a quick comparison to make sure you are getting the most for your money.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Will it be a busy and positive end to the week for the pound?

Early indications suggest yes! The pound has clearly been the favourite currency of 2014 as the UK leaves its counterparts behind with solid economic growth and economic policies all pointing towards raising interest rates. For me this trend is not finished and whilst the pound has clearly come slightly unstuck this October (the month economic realities often hit home, remember the Wall St crash?) longer term sterling really should remain the investors choice.

Risks remain from the Eurozone slowdown (40% of the UK’s overseas trade is with the Eurozone) and a general deterioration in the global economic outlook but on balance the UK is benefiting from improved domestic demand and whilst it may be that sterling does dip a little more as interest rate expectations are pushed back, I still believe the UK will raise interest rates ahead of the United States. I therefore view any dip in sterling as a buying opportunity well worth capitalising on.

Tomorrow’s Retail figures will be a big indicator as to whether or not the this domestic demand is sustainable and Friday’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will again be very indicative of just exactly how the UK is faring, I would personally expect sterling to fall tomorrow but rise Friday. If you are considering an upcoming exchange why not speak with me to learn a little more about the forecast?

What exactly should I do? I cannot unfortunately tell you exactly what to do or when to buy the currency, no one can! I can however keep an eye on the rates for you and highlight improvements and upcoming events which will affect the exchange. The uncertainty of the foreign exchange market means making firm decisions is impossible and it is only by speaking with a true specialist you can fully understand what may happen down the line.

For more information please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Pound Sterling Forecast – The Week ahead for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

There are plenty of points of interest for those following Sterling exchange rates this week so below is a summary of what lies ahead and how it may affect your rate of exchange this week. Please do remember that if you find our information useful then we do also carry out currency exchange for clients looking to buy or sell foreign property, businesses that have the need for foreign exchange and all sorts of different reasons so it is well worth getting in touch with me (Daniel Wright) by email on djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like access to award winning exchange rates and customer service.

Tomorrow is reasonably quiet for most major currencies similar to today, however for those following the Australian Dollar you should be aware that deputy Governor of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) speaking this morning at 09:55am which, depending on what he says may lead to a little market volatility for AUD exchange rates throughout the course of the morning. Overnight we saw a flurry of economic data from Chinas including growth figures which came out than expected and have indeed give the AUD a little already today.

Wednesday is when the data really starts to hot up and we have data that may affect GBP, USD, CAD, AUD and NZD rates of exchange so if you are looking to trade any of these currencies in the near future you need to make us aware so we can get in touch if there is a large movement. Feel free to email me Daniel Wright directly on djw@currencies.co.uk or to call us on 01494 787 478 so that we can act as your eyes and ears on the market and highlight any buying opportunities.

U.K starts the ball rolling at 09:30am with the Bank of England minutes from their last interest rate decision. The minutes will basically let us know how the 9 members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) voted at the latest decision in terms of interest rate change. Any change in favour the number of members voting in favour of an interest rate hike could give the Pound a boost and if we have fewer members opting for rates to rise, Sterling may drop substantially.

At 13:30pm we have inflation data from the States and expectations are for a slight drop from 1.7% to 1.6%. We may see a little Dollar weakness if inflation levels are any lower than this level, just like we saw a week ago for Sterling when rates plummeted following a much lower than expected CPI level.

Canada quite possibly has the most to offer in terms of economic data on Wednesday with Retail Sales, Interest rate decision, rate statement and a press conference all out between 13:30pm and 16:15pm. Retail Sales are expected to have improved slightly which may push the Canadian Dollar back down toward the 1.80 level but do be cautious that with the rate statement and during the press conference a dip may be temporary as any negative comments could knock the Canadian Dollar straight back down again.

The Antipodean currencies then take center stage with Governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens speaking at 22:00pm and inflation data coming out for New Zealand at 22:45pm. Both of these data releases are out overnight any many regular readers will remember it was only a short period of time ago that the RBA Governor commented that he felt the AUD was overvalued which led to sharp movements for the Australian Dollar overnight. If you are looking to buy or sell AUD or NZD then it may be prudent to look at one of our various contract types including a limit order or stop loss, contact me to find out how these options work.

Sterling then takes the reigns for the rest of the week with Retail Sales figures due on Thursday morning and GDP (Gross Domestic product) data due on Friday morning. Expectations are for Retail Sales to have dropped off a little and for our growth figures also to have retracted ever so slightly which may give the pound a tough end to the week.

If you would like to make the very most of your money then it is extremely important you have a proactive broker on your side with access to great rates of exchange. Feel free to contact me direct by email djw@currencies.co.uk or calling 01494 787 478 and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.

 

 

GBPEUR levels continue to fall steeply – when to trade?

GBPEUR levels have been very volatile over the last few weeks. In fact we have seen them have their most volatile period since the crash in 2008 this month with levels swinging over a cent a day and an overall movement between the high and the low of over 4 cents. This has made a huge difference to the costs of purchased anything from the single currency. There has been a number of topics and stories released which has started this negative trend. This included interest rates change being pushed back, IMF concerns about the UK’s growth next year, the highlight of risk being linked with Euro and Euros general demise and uncertainty. This created the fall initially but thereafter so many traders got involved in the swing it changed sentiment in the market that pushed levels down this week too. It seems there is a growing concern about the future globally as stock markets have fallen significantly, it was on Wednesday when we saw the largest day drop in European stock of over 6 years.

GBPEUR levels have dropped nearly every day this week with the only exception being yesterday when inflation date from Europe gave only some light relief for anyone buying the single currency.

Moving forward I would remain wary and I do think there is a big chance this negative trend will continue with levels ending the month lower than where we are today.  Economic data for the UK, reporting on September, continues to be negative due to the uncertainty last month with the Scottish vote. Plus with concerns building about the future for the single currency, Germany falling into a recession due to sanctions with Russia and Germany stopping QE, I would be concerned if I was a GBPEUR buyer.

If I was a GBPEUR trader this month I would definitely be putting myself into a position to move very quickly and I would probably look at limiting my exposure.  If I was a EURGBP trader I would also want to be ready to go and to take advantage of the movement in your direction.

If you would like more information about the potential timing of your transfer, and the stories to watch out for please feel free to contact myself directly. My email address here is hse@currencies.co.uk and I will get back to you personally, my name is Steve Eakins.

Alternatively if you would like to utilise the tools we have access to including RATE ALERTS and SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS please feel free to get in contact in the same way.

Have a good weekend.

Steve

U.K inflation data weakens Sterling in morning trading (Daniel Wright)

Inflation data released this morning for the U.K has led to a drop in the value of the Pound as figures came out much lower than expectations.

The worry was that inflation figures may have dropped off a little however the actual figure released was a lot lower than had been predicted.

Lower inflation will lead to the potential of an interest rate hike being put back a little further and an interest rate hike generally is seen as positive for the currency concerned and with the markets moving on speculation as well as firm economic releases.

We have also seen the Euro weaken off lately and the reason for this is extremely low inflation figures leading to the risk of deflation, one of the ways they are looking at to combat this is by introducing QE (Quantitative Easing) which as many regular readers will know generally is seen as very negative for the currency concerned as it is essentially printing more money and injecting it into the economy.

We still have quite a busy week ahead with a few interesting points of note including unemployment figures for the U.K tomorrow (predicted to have improved to 6.1%) and U.S Retail sales figures tomorrow afternoon. For those with an interest in the Euro you should be aware of President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi speaking at 8:00am tomorrow morning which could move Euro exchange rates in advance of trading lines opening.

if you have a currency transfer to carry out in the coming  days, weeks or indeed months then it may be prudent to contact me directly as the company I work for has not only won awards for our exchange rates but also our customer service. You can contact me directly on  Djw@currencies.co.uk please leave a contact number and a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be happy to get in touch.

Pound Sterling Forecast – The week ahead (Daniel Wright)

This week seems much busier than in terms of economic  data with the following due out that may have an effect on exchange rates:

Overnight we have the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) Interest rate decision and although no major changes are expected regarding interest rates speculators and investors alike will still be focused on any comments in the RBA rate statement which may give us some insight on future economic policy over in Australia and may lead to a volatile Australian Dollar overnight.

Tomorrow morning brings Swiss inflation data at 08:15am with expectations for CPI to be at 0% this does bring in a slight risk of deflation which may then lead to the SNB having to step in and combat inflation issues a little further down the line much like the European Central bank have had to recently. This may be negative for the Swiss Franc.

Later on tomorrow morning at 09:30am we have industrial and manufacturing production figures for the U.K which can always be a good market mover. Expectations are for a slight improvement in these figures so we may have a positive morning for the Pound as long as  long as figures are released in line with analysts predictions.

Wednesday is a little quieter however later on Wednesday evening we have the FOMC minutes from their last interest rate decision over in America and with U.S data having an effect on global attitude to risk all major currencies may be in for a volatile evening. I would be surprised not to hear some sort of indication on the interest rate hikes and when they now may happen so be sure to keep an eye on exchange rates at around 18:00pm Wednesday evening.

Late night Wednesday/Early morning Thursday we have a flurry of employment data from Australia and expectations are for fairly poor figures to be released, all in all this could round off what may be a potentially poor week for the Australian Dollar.

At midday on Thursday we have the Bank of England interest rate decision and although it would be a great surprise to see an interest rate hike in the U.K it only takes another two members of the Bank of England to decide in favour of a rate hike and we may see a surprise rate hike. A rise in interest rates is genreally seen as positive for a currency and a cut negative so if this were to happen you could expect a boost in the value of the Pound. Personally, I would be surprised to see a rate hike but you can never rule it out.

If we do not see one then the Bank of England minutes from this meeting will be released in roughly two weeks time and they will no doubt attract quite a bit of attention to see how voting went.

Later in the day Mario Draghi speaks at 16:00pm and we may see further news on he plans to attack deflation in the coming months so expect Euro volatility during Draghi’s comments.

Friday is not too busy to round off the week, the two key releases will be trade balance figures for the U.K at 09:30am where we expect to see a small improvement and later on in the afternoon we have Canadian employment figures with little change expected.

All in all I expect a busy week  and hope to have plenty to write about as the week goes on. If you have a currency exchange requirement either soon or in the future and you want to make sure you not only get an award winning rate of exchange but also customer service to match then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site personally.

You can email me with a brief explanation of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to give you a call.

I am contactable on djw@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to speaking with you.

 

 

USD at year highs against the pound following strong employment numbers (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has fallen to its lowest level against the greenback following strong non-farm payroll figures this afternoon. This has now taken the dollars rally to over 12 cents since the high of 1.72 in July. For me this run could continue should the FED end its tapering of QE this month (as expected) and the focus will then shift towards when the FED may raise interest rates. Should the market begin to price in an interest rate hike then I can see GBP/USD testing 1.55 and below.

Looking at the single currency and since the 1st January the overriding trend has been in the pounds favour. On January the 1st levels sat at 1.2045 peaking at 1.28 last week (a 5.9% shift and fresh two year high). Average trade levels sit at approximately 1.2450 so with current levels sitting at 1.2750 Euro buyers are ahead of the game. If I was buying Euros I would view the current levels as an opportunity.

Finally looking at the Australian dollar and recently the GBP/AUD pairing has seen one of the biggest swings with the pound having rallied 12 cents since the 8th September. Current levels are now very much more in line with January’s price of 1.86. It peaked at 1.90 late January before slumping to the year low of 1.72 earlier this month (10.5% high/low range). Yearly averages sit roughly at 1.81 so again current prices are still looking good for AUD buyers.

As you can see the pound is currently seeing some good value against a number of currencies sitting at a near 6 month high against the AUD and over a two year high against the Euro. To take advantage or get more information on the currency service we provide then please call the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling remains healthy (Ben Amrany)

Sterling exchange rates have significantly strengthened since the debacle surrounding the Scottish referendum has now settled down. You just have to look at GBP rates against the Euro to see a rise of 3.71% and the southern hemisphere currencies like the AUD & NZD have both lost against the pound to the tune of 8.38% and 7.44% respectively. The one major currency to hold their own is the USD due to the strong economic data to come out from across the pound and I fully expect the USD to continue to gain over the months ahead once the FED raise interest rates before the UK.

The recent gains have meant that many clients have recovered a lot of the losses over the last few years and many have been capitalising. There will be numerous factors that could effect the pound going forward starting with Markit Manufacturing PMI data out at 9.30 tomorrow morning. Then on Thursday is the construction sectors data followed by Friday’s services data.

For those buying Euros the big release could be that of the interest rate decision on Thursday. After the last few months where the ECB have cut rates it will be interesting to see if they step up a QE programme. If so there could be further gains for GBP/EUR over the Month of October.

If you are looking to make a saving on your exchange then please feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk and I can explain the process and options available to you.

Many Thanks

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling could be in for a very tough Winter…

Sterling has had a truly remarkable year making firm gains against pretty much all currencies and presenting some of the best rates to buy a foreign currency with in years. GBPUSD hit a 5 year high, GBPEUR has hit a two year high (and not far off a 6 year high!) and GBPNZD and GBPAUD are also both at multi year highs… Clearly sterling is faring well but this now begs the question will it continue?

October is looking like a tough month for the pound  with economic releases from September’s data likely to be poor owing to lower business and consumer confidence due to the Scottish referendum. I feel this is likely to feed into the rest of the year and with it interest rate hike expectations (currently expected in April) liable to be pushed back further. Economic growth in the UK is currently running at 0.8% and with house prices not rising as fast as previously I think the need to raise rates will dampen in Q4.

Tomorrow is some very important Eurozone news on Inflation which will be indicative of how much QE we can expect Thursday from the ECB. With so much volatility surrounding this release making some careful plans ready to trade on the news seems sensible.

I couldn’t possibly fit everything important in one post, would you read the whole article anyway? So if you need to consider a currency exchange and wish for further information please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I work as a foreign exchange dealer and we focus on a personal proactive service to help you get the most from the market. Please contact me for more information regarding your situation.

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