Tag Archives: pound
UK Manufacturing figures and the NIESR GDP estimate could set the tone for the pound for the rest of the week (Mike Vaughan)
Prior to last Thursday’s slight correction the general movements for the pound over the last month have been very positive. We have hit a near 2 ½ year high against the greenback having shifted 3.3% since mid-November. A similar trend has been seen against a number of currencies, most notably just shy of 7% against the AUD (a near four year high), 8% against the ZAR (five year high) and in excess of 4% against the CAD (four year high) all since the start of November. This has created some unexpected opportunities and shows how important keeping in touch with your account manager can be.
Sterling had rallied up past 1.21 mid last week but following the ECB interest rate decision to keep rates on hold and the subsequent post decision press conference, the Euro rallied back towards 1.19 – showing how quickly levels can move. For me I believe this trend could be a real opportunity for Euro sellers as I personally believe longer term with the positive sentiment coming from the UK that we are likely to see a sustained period of GBP/EUR sitting above 1.20.
Looking at data this week today’s UK industrial production and manufacturing figures at 09:30 on along with NIESR UK GDP estimates at 15:00 will be a key area to focus on should you have an interest in the pound. Heading towards the latter stages of the week and we have the ECB monthly report at 09:00 Thursday and to finish off the week employment data from the euro zone on Friday.
Strong rates on cable
As mentioned the pound is currently sitting just shy of a 2 ½ year high against the greenback. Following Fridays non-farm payroll figures (slightly better than forecast) the pound has remained range bound between 1.63-1.64 – some attractive buy levels in my view.
This week again UK industrial and manufacturing and GDP data today will be key for anyone looking at cable, something which could push levels back towards the 1.64 mark. Other important data will include the US budget statement at 19:00, with Thursday looking the busiest day for the dollar with initial jobless claims and monthly retail sales figures due for release at 13:30
A good time to buy AUD and CAD?
Sterling’s recent run against the AUD and CAD has been considerable. Since August the pound has rallied over 10% against the Canadian dollar, a huge shift considering that GBP/CAD rates are usually relatively stable. In fact during a three year period (Aug 2010 to Aug 2103) the high low range was only 6% and with levels at a four year high, for me it is a very good time to buy CAD.
Looking at the AUD, rates have dramatically improved since the lows of 1.445 in April pushing through 1.81 last week. This is over a 20% increase and a near four year high, again an opportunity for AUD buyers. This week is a relatively quiet week with the major data set in Australia being unemployment figures on Thursday – expected to increase from 5.7% to 5.8% and could lead to further losses for the dollar.
To dicsuss my market views and to get a full overview of the currency service we provide then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email me with your query and currency requirement and I will happily run through the various contract types available. Email Mike at firstname.lastname@example.org
Well folks it is that time of year when we reflect on the year so far and look to next year. As the site suggest we make forecasts and the forecast for sterling in 2014 would have to be positive. What are the possible pitfalls however and against which currencies will see the most gains? And what can you do to maximise your deals with this knowledge?
Watch the US – where is market sentiment?
The UK is leading the pack with the highest growth rates amongst European economies. The US is growing faster but their QE programme is without doubt fuelling these increases. At some point the US will have to turn off the QE taps and there will be a very strong market reaction not just on the US dollar but on the euro, pound almost every other currency.
Market Sentiment is a key determinant of the value of sterling. If investors are confident in the global economic outlook the pound should do well as the UK relies heavily on trade from overseas and the services sector which makes up a large part of our economy, relies on international trade.
The pound is likely to do well in 2014 as the global economic outlook improves and the UK recovery remains on track. Of course there are many pitfalls ahead and so the right type of contract is key. A forward contract is the perfect way to lock in your rate for the future without exposing yourself. If you are unsure about how this works or would like any information on the currency markets it really is worth your while speaking to us. Please feel free to speak to me Jonathan on email@example.com
Pitfalls, highs and lows
I expect the EU referendum and Eurozone debt crisis will be key factors that could affect sterling rates in 2014. The Aussie looks likely to be on the back foot as does the rand so I think sterling will push higher against these currencies. Whilst the early part of the year should see GBPUSD at similair levels, the prospect of QE tapering means GBPUSD should drop to the kind of levels we saw earlier this year. Although if you ask me we are a very long away away from the US economy being ready to give up its QE addiction.
I do hope you have found this information useful and look forward to hearing from you if you would like to learn more about our excellent rates, informative forecasts and friendly helpful service.
Sterling exchange rates come crashing down. 1.20 against the Euro now gone. Where will the pound now head. (Ben Amrany)
Sterling exchange rates have come crashing back down today by an average of 1% wiping away its recent gains against the EUR, CHF, CAD, AUD & USD.
Today was always going to be a volatile days trading with the Autumn budget, interest rate decisions in the UK and Europe and growth figures out of the US all happening within a few hours of each other. The Budget did not really do the pound much harm at the time of the speech but once the European Central Bank had their press conference the pound really started to weaken across the board. Rates against the Euro are at the lowest in over a week after the European Central Bank upgraded its growth forecasts and the head of the ECB appeared to be cautious about more easing all helping the Euro to rebound.
The stance and tone of the ECB’s comments have caused more optimism in the Euro zone and it may now be hard for the pound to claw back its losses back towards 1.20 or 1.21. This is a welcome relief for those of you that need to buy the pound and now may represent an attractive time to secure your funds. If you are selling the Euro to buy sterling feel free to contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org and I can explain the options available to you.
For those of you that are still looking at buying the Euro I have been stating to my clients that if you trade when the pound is at a fresh high this gives you the peace of mind that you have secured your funds at one of the best times. I still had many clients that held off hoping that the pound would continue to rise but the pound always has a habit of crashing when you feel it is only going one way. Unfortunately exchange rates never move in one direction and a reversal of the rates is inevitable at one time or another. You now have to judge how long it may take to rise again and if it will happen in the time frame you have. The uncertainty in what may occur with the pound is what tends to make the wiser clients secure their funds sooner rather than later. At the end of the day indecision normally costs you more than a bad decision which many clients will now be thinking.
Looking forward to next week there are more growth figures from Europe and a raft of production figures from the UK and a big report from the ECB out next Thursday. Last time the pound was over 1.20 last January within 3 weeks it was down at 1.15. I don’t think the same will happen but you never know what is around the corner with the pound. So lets hope a similar trend wont occur and if you want to have the peace of mind then forward buying may just be a wise decision.
If you have an up and coming transfer to buy the Euro and have been holding out for 1.20 or above and need to make your transfer in the near future don’t get caught out by a declining pound. There is the chance we may see a rebound again so it would be best to contact me and have things ready to move should this occur. You can contact myself Ben Amrany at email@example.com
If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at firstname.lastname@example.org
GBPZAR 5 year high, GBPAUD and GBPCAD 4 year highs, GBPUSD at 2 1/2 year high and GBPEUR over 1.20…
Sterling is at truly exceptional levels against most currencies as the UK’s recovery rakes hold and the UK sets itself apart from other leading economies by appearing to be likely to be one of the first leading economies to be raising interest rates. Whilst the United States are debating when to stop QE, the UK have not done any QE for the last year. The ECB are looking at possibly negative interest rates and the Bank of Canada is no longer looking to tighten policy. Overnight we learnt that GDP in Australia was weaker than expected, again a sign of another leading economy weakening whilst the UK has been performing well.
With the often crazy Christmas period fast approaching and changes in banking days there is a lot to be said for wrapping up a transfer like a present. The recent spike on exchanges rates has been a great gift to you and now could be an excellent time to either buy your currency or lock into a forward contract to minimise any losses. You can then remove the stress of the transfer and focus on the more important things at this time of year!
If you have a pending transfer we offer a specialist service to assist you in securing the most from the market. For more information at no cost or obligation please do feel free to get in touch. I am a specialist currency broker and my job is to assist private clients and businesses in managing their exposure to the currency markets, ensuring payments are made quickly and safely at the very best rates.
Please feel free to contact me Jonathan on email@example.com or call +44 1494 787 478 and ask to speak to me.
Euro zone GDP could halt the pounds run tomorrow. How to get the best deal on your foreign exchange (Mike Vaughan)
Following this morning’s news that UK construction picked up speed in November with output rising at the fastest pace in more than six years the pound rallied past 1.21 against the Euro, pushed through 1.64 against the US dollar and 1.80 against the Australian Dollar. The pound is currently seeing a strong run against a host of currencies, an early Christmas present for some?
Those in particular should be keeping an eye on Euro Zone GDP date scheduled for release at 10:00 along with Euro Zone retail sales figures. Both are expected to show a slight increase which could lend support to the Euro. Following this the major data set for the week will come on Thursday with the release of the Bank of England and European Central Banks interest rate decision at 12:00 and 12:45. I would expect both central banks to keep interest rates on hold which is likely to have little effect on GBP/EUR but the accompanying statement from Mario Draghi at 13:30 is likely to be the key to exchange rate movements for this pair.
Looking at other majors such as cable (GBP/USD) and the Australian Dollar – both are representing strong buy opportunities with cable at a two year high and the pound sitting just shy of a four year high against Aussie. However watch out for Australian GDP figures overnight (forecast to jump from 0.6% to 0.8%) and US employment change at 12:15. Employment data is likely to dominate the US dollar this week with non-farm payroll figures scheduled for release on Friday. With the FED highlighting this as a key area to show consistent improvement before they consider tapering QE – those looking at the USD should pay close attention to these employment figures.
As a specialist foreign exchange broker we have a number of contracts available to help clients maximise your foreign exchange. Should you have an upcoming transaction to arrange and you would like help and assistance with the timing of your transfer then please get in contact. We are here to help and pride ourselves not just on our attractive commercial rates, but also the hands on approach to helping our clients, this can include the use of rate alerts and LIMIT orders. To discuss the service in more detail contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at firstname.lastname@example.org
Sterling exchange rates have continued their rally today with the Pound gaining against all major currencies.
In a completely different and indeed refreshing alteration to previous Governor of the Bank of England Sir Mervyn King, the new Governor of the BoE Mark Carney spoke this morning and once again the Pound actually rose following his comments. Those who have followed Sterling over the past few years will be well aware that King had a knack of causing Sterling weakness whenever he spoke however things appear to have now changed and Bank of England press conferences with Carney speaking do seem to result in Sterling strength.
If you are looking to transfer Sterling into a foreign currency in the near future then current rates of exchange do look exceedingly tempting.
Tonight we have Consumer Confidence figures for the U.K at 00:01 and tomorrow morning some house price and mortgage approval data for the U.K which could lead to either further Sterling strength or the Pound creeping back a little.
We also have European data out in the morning inclusive of German Retail sales and inflation data for the rest of Europe.
For those looking to buy or sell Canadian Dollars we also have GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures for Canada at 13:30pm U.K time.
If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out and you wish to get not only award winning exchange rates but an award winning level of customer service then please do feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) by email on email@example.com with a brief description of your requirements and a telephone number and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.
Happy thanksgiving to everyone over in America!
Sterling exchange rates hit multi-year highs against some major currencies (Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar) and multi-month highs against the Dollar and Euro – Excellent rates of exchange available for those looking to buy foreign currency at the best rate (Daniel Wright)
Sterling exchange rates have remained fairly positive over the past few weeks, which is great news for those looking to purchase foreign currency in the run up to Christmas.
The Pound is at multi year highs against the Australian and Canadian Dollar, it is battling to hit 1.20 and stay above it against the Euro and it is comfortably above 1.60 against the U.S Dollar.
GDP figures released this morning were as expected slightly revising the U.K growth figures for quarter three up to 0.8% yet the Pound has continued its charge and is up against a basket of major currencies.
Economic data for the U.K of late has been very good and this has led to the Pound following suit.
If you have followed exchange rates over the past few years then you will be well aware that a good looking Sterling exchange rate does not generally tend to stick around for too long and in my experience it is always the clients who get a little too greedy that miss out.
If you have a large chunk to do and are still thinking of holding on then there is a sensible option of potentially booking out half of you requirement now and leaving the rest until a later date of your choice thus elimination the full risk and meaning that if the rate keeps going up then you can still take advantage of it with some of your money yet if it shoots back down it is not such a big hit to take.
Are you looking to buy or sell foreign currency in the coming days weeks or months? I work for an award winning currency brokerage that deals with bank to bank transfers ranging from £5000 to multi million Pound transactions for both private and corporate clients.
We specialise in helping people with overseas property purchases and sales or businesses that need to settle invoices or that receive funds in foreign currency.
We are proactive and can act as your eyes and ears on the market along with getting you a much better rate than you can achieve through the bank.
Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on firstname.lastname@example.org with a brief description of what you are looking to do along with a contact number and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the options available to you.
The current outlook for the pound is now very much positive with the pound posting some important gains against many different currencies. Of note is GBPCAD, GBPNZD, GBPAUD which are all posting very strong rates well above the the recent averages. With such strong moves in a short period of time it is highly likely there will be lots of profit taking which will pull things back down, this could be a very good opportunity for anyone buying sterling to enter the market.
Positive GDP this morning has cemented sterling’s position against most currencies and with central banks globally threatening looser policy, it is only really the Bank of England which appears to be on a track to tightening policy. This of course could be years away but with other banks looking at more accommodative measures the pound is standing out and it is likely will strengthen further.
The ECB are looking at possible negative deposit rates, the RBA is actively seeking a much weaker currency and the Fed is largely committed to continuing the QE programme until the economic conditions improve of which we have seen not much hope so far.
If you are buying or selling the pound an awareness of the latest trends and themes is key to securing the best rates. For more information on what is driving your rate and assistance with the very best rates of exchange please contact the author directly on email@example.com
FOMC minutes have created some big shifts on the currency markets. GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD and NZD exchange rate forecast (Mike Vaughan)
Sterling has been running through a particularly volatile time of late posting strong gains against the single currency since the surprise interest rate cut of last week and pushing rates to a 10 month high. Levels are still some 2.2% better than the end of October. Worryingly each time the pound looks like it will have a sustained period of strength and breach the 1.20 level the Euro fights back, should this trend continue then the current prices must represent value.
Looking at GBP/USD – rates pushed past 1.61 yesterday following dovish tones from Ben Bernanke suggesting interest rates will remain near zero, even should unemployment fall to 6.5%. However following yesterday’s FOMC minutes, Bernanke again announced that the tapering of QE is still certainly on the FED’s mind suggesting it could happen within the next couple of months. As a result the USD shifted back into the 1.60s and we have seen a big shift for the pound against currencies such as the AUD and NZD.
Since the end of October the pound has gained in excess of 3.2% against the NZD and 4% against the AUD. As mentioned the tapering of QE is likely to drive the value of the Aussie and Kiwi down further as it reduces the amount of international money supply and with yields in Australia and New Zealand far more attractive than many other countries, a fall in money is likely to hamper these particular currencies more so than say the Euro or Pound. This combined with the fact the RBA is interested in devaluing the Australian dollar to improve its competitiveness (in fact RBA Chairman Stevens just this morning said he was open minded on intervention to weaken the AUD) suggests AUD and NZD buyers should get more value. Sellers on the other hand should consider their options.
Should you have an upcoming bank to bank money exchange to arrange and you would like to discuss the currency service we provide then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at firstname.lastname@example.org