Tag Archives: pound

U.K records first negative inflation since records began in 1996 – European Central Bank comments lead to Euro weakness (Daniel Wright)

The morning started off with Euro weakness across the board and a minor Dollar fight back as we heard comments from members of the European Central Bank that they would be prepared to go even further if required to ensure that they achieve inflation of 2% and it looks like these comments broadly surround the QE program.

Expectations are that QE for the Eurozone will continue through September 2016 and bearing in mind that both the U.K and U.S are much deeper into their QE projects this may hold back the Euros from seeing too much strength in the near term.

Greece of course will still be an extremely important issue and any further news surrounding this issue will no doubt also have quite an impact.

Regarding the U.K and Sterling, inflation data out this morning has led to the Pound dropping against most majors other than the Euro. Inflation came out negative for the first time since records were taken in 1996 however the Bank of England had predicted that we would see this soon so it is not a great surprise.

Many are blaming Easter for these year on year figures as Easter had been fairly early this year. Usually over Easter travel costs are much higher and due to it being earlier this rise in costs fell outside the accounting period so we may see a spike back in inflation figures next month.

If you have an upcoming currency transfer to carry out involving either buying or selling the Pound for any major currency and you would like my personal assistance then feel free to contact me directly. I deal with thousands of private and corporate clients exchanging money for business needs and property purchases/sales and I would be more than happy to help you too. You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will get in touch.

The election and how it may impact on the Pound – Pound Sterling Forecast election special

The Election and the impact it may have on the Pound

Well if the polls are anything to go by we are in for a real roller coaster ride in the next 24 hours as the U.K head into voting stations in what may be the closest election in decades.

With political certainty being one of the key factors that have an effect on the value of a currency, Sterling may struggle until we have cemented not only who will be running the U.K but also how they plan to approach their reign.

One of the best ways of putting it is that if you were due to invest in a business (i.e the U.K/Pound) then it is highly unlikely you would take the plunge until you actually knew who would be running that business and how they planned to run it. Until we have some clear results from this election then we are in exactly that position, therefore demand in the Pound slows and Sterling’s value could more than likely drop.

I thought it may be prudent to outline the possibilities that may arise in the coming days, weeks or even months and how they could impact on the value of the Pound.

First and foremost, it does look like there is now a slim chance of any party achieving a majority. A majority would be where they can set up Government solely without the need for seeking out other parties to join together with to form what is known as a coalition.

In the unlikely event that we do see a majority for the Conservatives then I would not be surprised to see Sterling gain a lot of strength as it would show certainty and also with the economy currently performing fairly well, should be taken kindly by the markets. A Labour majority may not be so positive for Sterling initially as we may see quite a lot of change on the horizon for the U.K therefore investors may hold back to wait and see what changes may be made.

Hung Parliament

It is fairly likely that once results are announced we may see what is known as a hung Parliament. This is basically where no single political party wins a majority in the House of Commons and this is where things can really start to get interesting.

Essentially, there are usually 12 days allowed for incumbent Government (current holder of political office) to attempt to form a coalition. This may be trickier than before as the current party involved in the coalition (Lib Dems) has seemingly lost a large amount of support after not keeping to key points of their manifesto during 2010.

During this period I expect large volatility for the Pound and a limit order/stop loss contract may be a prudent approach. This is where you can set a particular level you wish to achieve or a lower limit you do not want to buy below and either may be secured automatically for you should the market price become available. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk or call our trading floor line on 01494 787478 for more information.

After 12 days (although it did take 13 last time around) if the Conservatives have failed to put together a coalition then the largest opposition party may be asked to put together a coalition. This has every potential to end up being the Labour party attempting to put something together with the SNP (Scottish National Party).

Should this be the case then I feel Sterling may really suffer as the SNP have already commented that they would like to have another referendum on Scottish independence and I would be highly surprised that they would agree to anything without the potential of this taking place. When we had the vote for Scottish independence last year and the chance of a yes vote heightened, Sterling dropped off by over 4% in a few days so with the potential of this looming, even sometime in the future the Pound will more than likely suffer.

In the event that no party can put together a coalition then we may have a situation of ‘no overall control’ which was seen a number of times in the twentieth century. This would make life hard for the Pound and would lead to a second election later in the year and again may lead to a tricky period for the U.K and indeed the Pound for a number of months.

All in all if you are looking to buy or sell foreign currency in the coming days, weeks or months then it is extremely important that you make your account manager here at currencies.co.uk fully aware. If you are working to a particular budget then our contract options may be a sensible approach, you can book an exchange rate for anything up to a year in advance for just a small deposit, helping you to budget well in advance for the year ahead. If you would like any assistance or one of our friendly traders to explain the various options available to you then either email me on djw@currencies.co.uk   or call us directly on 01494 787 478.

The moment you have been waiting for?

I hope this finds you well and 2015 has been a good year. It has certainly been an interesting year for the currency markets and the weeks ahead look set to see this continue. I hope that if you are going to be considering a currency transaction in the near future you have made some plans for what is likely to be an unpredictable volatile period. If I can make your life easier by offering my services for any transactions you need to consider please do get in touch.

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GBP – Sterling fell last week because the economy is growing slower than thought at 0.3% and we have the most uncertain General Election in generations. Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck with fringe parties likely to upset any majority and create more uncertainty in the scramble for government. Will we have a new government on Friday? It is looking unlikely and deliberations to achieve a majority could take weeks. Sterling is likely to fall as we approach the event but a last minute swing for the Conservatives from electorate fears over the economy may cause a spike. It would appear markets do not favour a Labour coalition and such a vote or even a Labour majority might see further GBP losses.

I would foresee the news of a government being formed as GBP positive but it will depend on whom exactly this comprises. The last election and other politically uncertain events have see GBP move by 5-6 cents and swings of this magnitude this month should not be ruled out. I wish I could tell you which way and by how much but no one can, all I would say is if you do expect to be buying some currency involving sterling this month or next making some plans soon is I believe a very sensible option.

EUR – Greece fears had caused GBPEUR to spike back above 1.40 last week, only for the poor UK news above to see it close some 5 cents lower. Greek uncertainty looks likely to be a lifeline to anyone buying Euros with sterling should the pound suffer too much. A more understanding approach by Greece and creditors to resolving the issue seems likely, the one thing everyone still agrees on is Greece should remain part of the Eurozone. Ironically the Eurozone economy is growing at 0.4% putting it ahead of the UK and US, partly helping explain the recent rebound of the Euro currency against its peers. If you have any Euros overseas to sell for sterling the election may provide some good opportunities to regain the losses the Euro has suffered so far in 2015.

USD – The American economy was shown to be growing at 0.2% last week causing GBPUSD to spike midweek only for it to fall 4 cents by the end of the week. Friday we have US Unemployment data and Non-Farm Payroll data which should only serve to make the week for cable more unpredictable. If like all the other recent US data, it is poor, expect some USD weakness.

AUD – Overnight is the RBA Interest rate decision and Rate Statement. Thursday is Unemployment data and Friday Monetary Policy Statement. Expectations had been high for another rate cut in 2015 but so far this has not yet materialised. Combined with sterling uncertainty I see this rate falling in the short term.

For the very best exchange rates and to speak with a currency specialist about all of your options please email jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBP/ EUR Forecast. UK Election Vs Greece! (Dayle Littlejohn)

For many financial experts GBP/ EUR current exchange rates are a surprise. In recent elections around the globe the currency in question normally weakens months before. This is because of the uncertainty created. Therefore GBP/ EUR exchange rate in my opinion should be around the 1.35/1.36 mark. However in recent weeks GBP/ EUR has floated around the 1.38/ 1.39 level as Greece is counteracting any political uncertainty as they are still indicating a ‘Grexit’ could occur.

Ministers within the Eurozone including Angela Merkel from Germany, understand the importance of keeping Greece within the Euro. The reason being if Greece did decide to leave we could see a ‘domino effect’ where countries like Portugal, Spain and Ireland following suit and then in my opinion the start of the end for the Euro. Therefore this is the reason I believe Greece will stay.

Prediction

Going forward I still believe Sterling will weaken before the Election and by May the 7th GBP/ EUR exchange rate will be between the 1.3550 and 1.3650. Depending on which parties form a coalition (as its fair to say no party will gain the majority) GBP/ EUR could strengthen or weaken. For further information into the possible outcomes to who could form the government and the effects this could have on the currency markets please click here.

Going forward if I was looking to buy Euros I would be buying as soon as possible taking no risks. Where as if i was selling Euros I would be following the Greece story closely, however I would look to trade just before the election. For further information and a quote to receive award winning exchange rates feel free to email me on drl@currencies.co.uk or alternatively call 01494 787 478 and quote Dayle Littlejohn.

Do you find our site useful? Why not use us for award winning exchange rates as well??!! (Daniel Wright)

Just to make you aware we have now had over 5500 people contact us through the site who have managed to get better rates of exchange than their current currency provider. If you are using one of the following it may be worth you getting in touch for a direct comparison:

Moneycorp, HIFX, World First, Smart Currency, UK Forex, Oz Forex, Foremost Currency, Foreign Currency Exchange, Currency Index, Currencies Direct, XE.com, Transferz, NZ Forex, Halo, Afex, Tor FX, Hargreaves Lansdowne and Transferwise. 

Not to mention Barclays, Lloyds, Natwest, HSBC, Yorkshire Bank, Clydesdale Bank, RBS, Halifax, Nationwide and pretty much all major banks.

We don’t only pride ourselves on a great exchange rate but also a really high level of service too, which you may find you are not getting to a high enough standard at present.

If you are using an online trading platform then make sure you get straight in touch, with an online platform you do not have someone negotiating on your behalf therefore generally do not receive the best rate of exchange you can.

We deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from one thousand Pounds to multi million Pound transactions for both private clients and corporate clients… We have a regular payments facility too which is free and can assist anyone with smaller payments to Europe.

The company we work for is FCA registered and Authorised as a payments institute and all funds are kept in client transaction accounts to give you peace of mind your funds are safe and secure, we have won awards both for our exchange rates and customer service and have now 50,000 clients under our wing. Anyone that contacts us through this site will deal with one of the authors, if there is an author you find particularly informative you can use them directly.

I have to say I am really proud as to how much this site has picked up over the past three years and it is thanks to my regular readers that it is as popular as it is today – Let me return the favour with exceptional exchange rates.

If you feel we could be of assistance to you as well, feel free to get in contact with me (Daniel Wright) the creator and main editor of this site  djw@currencies.co.uk or you can indeed fill in the enquiry form on this page and one of us will call you back.

You can also join our mailing list on this page too.

We look forward to speaking with you soon!

FOMC Minutes show a split decision on rate hikes (Daniel Wright)

The latest set of Federal Reserve minutes from the last interest rate decision released this evening have actually shown that even the Fed are currently torn on when to raise interest rates.

An interest rate hike or more the timing of the interest rate hike has been key to the strength of the Dollar over the past few months with many major analysts expecting to see a hike this summer.

Now that it appears that the members of the Fed are actually quite split you would imagine that the Dollar may actually gain strength but at present it is still the best of the three majors.

With numerous problems within the Eurozone and a pending tight election for the U.K expected to hold Sterling back the Dollar is still well and truly holding ground.

Personally I expect this to continue however depending on the result of the election there is a high chance of a Sterling fight back should there be no major changes in terms of Government for the U.K.

If you have the need to exchange any currency in the coming days, weeks or months then it is key to have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side for it. The company we work for has won awards both for our exchange rates and customer service so even if you are already set up with a broker it may be well worth you getting in touch with me directly and should save you money.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to contact you personally. I look forward to hearing from you.

Elections Debate to impact Sterling Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have had a mixed week as UK GDP came in better than expected which caused the Pound to shoot up by 1% against the single currency. However, during yesterday’s trading session the Pound lost most its gains.

All eyes will be on tonight’s live debate and depending on the public perception we could see exchange rates move over the next few days.

With Easter coming up the UK banks will not be open for business tomorrow or Monday so o in order to avoid the uncertainty over what may happen it may suit you to organise your currency transfer before the break.

With the election held previously the rate for GBPEUR dropped by as 3 cents when it was announced that there was a hung parliament and I think this time it will be no different.

Indeed, various opinion polls have suggested that the Tories are likely to win with 279 seats compared to Labour with 266 seats. However, neither will gain the majority required which is likely to cause uncertainty for the currency markets.

Wednesday is the next day for volatility with the release of a number of announcements in the UK and Eurozone. Arguably the most important data will be the Eurozone retail sales which if better than expected could see the Euro strengthen against Sterling.

On Wednesday evening the Federal Reserve publish their minutes from their recent interest rate decision and any mention of raising interest rates in the near future could see Dollar strength and Euro weakness which could lead to Sterling rising against the Euro on Thursday.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on your currency transfer then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

How do I get the best exchange rates for buying and selling sterling?

1 – Don’t use the bank! Despite what they might claim, they will not get you the best rate. If you believe my claim suprious call me now and make a comparison. 01494 787478 is my number, ask to speak with Jonathan.

2 – Speak to a currency broker about all of your options. A broker will be able to offer you an exchange rate that is better than a bank. If you have a broker already and want to check if they are truly getting you the best deal, speak to me again! I work as a broker and have done for 6 years. I have only ever worked for the same company and they have been in business for 15 years. I am very confident I can better any rate you are given, please speak to me Jonathan to learn more or email jmw@currencies.co.uk

3 – Make some realistic plans! Just hoping exchange rates will rise isn’t enough. And just expecting the rate to move to a level you need is not enough either. Exchange rates move for a huge variety and range of reasons. Accept you will not buy at the absolute top of the market and that it could move against you. Speak to me about the range of contract options available to fix rates for up to one year and to receive updates on the foreign exchange market too.

How will the pound perform in April?

The rates really are predicted to fall in the coming weeks owing to the uncertainty of the election. Labour are not being viewed favourably by markets as they plan to increase spending, the Tories have pledged a referendum on Europe (bad for business confidence) and the consensus is for a hung parliament – again more uncertainty. Let us look at the last few events which led to political uncertainty in the UK. Ahead of the 2010 General Election sterling lost 7 cents, ahead of the Scottish Referendum sterling 5 cents. Now I ask you dear reader, what do you think will happen to sterling in the coming weeks?

Of course no one can tell you exactly or precisely what will happen on exchange rates. But by working with a specialist who understands the market and setting some realistic targets you can limit your exposure and maximise your gains when opportunities do arise. The gamble is to do nothing so please contact me to learn more and have a chat about your situation. Each transaction and circumstance is different, with various options to consider.

If you need to make a currency transaction in the coming weeks I would love to hear from you and personally assist in the execution and planning of any payments. Even if you believe you have a system in place a second opinion and price is often sensible. Please email me jmw@currencies.co.uk or call (+44) 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to Jonathan. If I am on a call please leave some details and I will call you back personally as soon as possible.

We assist clients located all over the world but if you are in the UK, don’t forget to vote!

Sterling exchange rate movements today – Quiet week for economic data this week (Daniel Wright)

First and foremost our sincere condolences to anyone involved in the air crash today, always deeply saddening to hear such news.

Regarding currency, we have seen another fairly stable day for Sterling against the Euro and Dollar yet with fairly sharp drops against the Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.

We saw inflation figures out earlier this morning which immediately knocked the Pound as inflation dropped to a rather concerning 0% against market expectations of dropping down to 0.1%.

The inflation issue remains a concern for the Bank of England, along with the fact that Manufacturing figures at the start of the week showing the U.k manufacturing levels are really down.

This may be partially down to the fact that Sterling has been so strong against the Euro of late which has possibly led to European clients of U.K businesses seeking to buy their goods and services from elsewhere in Europe instead of from the U.K as Sterling is just so expensive for them.

With this in mind it is no surprise that the 1.40 level for GBP/EUR did not stick around for long and although there are many problems still within Europe I personally still do not see Sterling gaining significant ground against the Euro in the coming weeks, so if you have a pending requirement to buy Euros for your business or to purchase a property overseas then it may be prudent to look at making a purchase soon rather than potentially seeing another boat of opportunity sail away.

If you have the need to exchange any currency in the coming days, weeks or months then it is key to have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side for it. The company we work for has won awards both for our exchange rates and customer service so even if you are already set up with a broker it may be well worth you getting in touch with me directly and should save you money.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to contact you personally. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Sterling Euro creeps down from 1.40 – Market poised on Federal Reserve decision tomorrow and RBA minutes confirm future interest rate cut is probable (Daniel Wright)

An interesting day on the currency markets for Sterling, seeing the rate come down from 1.40 against the Euro, finished the day in the mid 1.47s against the Dollar and ended close to 1.94 against the Australian Dollar.

Earlier this morning European inflation figures were one of the main drivers for a little Euro strength which has been an extremely rare occurrence over the past few weeks. This gave those looking to sell Euros a brief opportunity to achieve a slightly better price and showed again just how important it is to buy on spikes when they occur and not to get greedy and miss out.

There is every chance we may see the rate push back through 1.40 but it is key to remember that if you are buying Euros then you are almost already a whopping 10% up on the rate at the turn of the year so if you are in the process of buying a property overseas with Euros it may be prudent to at least lock in a portion of your funds as there are still plenty of issues that could bring the rate back down… One being the election.

If you are looking to buy or indeed sell Euros in the near future and you would like my assistance and to get not only award winning exchange rates but a high level of customer service then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Anyone in the position of selling Dollars will be pleased with the last few weeks movements as we saw the rate burst through the 1.50 mark for the first time in a few years. Tomorrow we have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and monetary policy statement which will be a key indicator as to when the Fed may look to raise interest rates and could lead to quite a volatile evening for the Dollar.

For Australian Dollar followers the RBA commented last night in their latest meeting minutes that they would cut interest rates if they needed to in the future which suggests there is every chance of an interest rate cut and the Australian Dollar to weaken again in the coming months.

An interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for a currency and a hike in rates is generally positive and with exchange rates moving on speculation as well as fact even the slightest hint of a cut or hike can lead to quite a lot of market movement.

Tomorrow is an extremely busy day for those with Sterling to exchange to or from any other currency. We have the Bank of England minutes from their last interest rate decision at 09:30am and the budget at 12:30pm so be sure to keep a keen eye on the rates on and shortly after these times.

Once again if you have an exchange to carry out then I welcome all new clients and can generally get better exchange rates than any other company out there so even if you are already set up with a broker there is a good chance you can still save money. All you need to do to get in touch is email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a number and an explanation of what you are looking to do and I will make sure I get in touch.

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