Tag Archives: pound

Great Expectations… GBP Weakness…

The pound has dipped this morning despite a raft of good economic data showing improvements in government borrowing and falling budget deficit. There had been some high expectations of seeing the pound move higher due to a more hawkish outlook by the Bank of England but this failed to materialise. As one of my clients said to me ‘you can’t even trust the Bank of England’ nowadays…

This was in reference to their commitment to consider raising interest rates if the Unemployment rate dipped below 7%. This particular caveat was of course met recently causing the pound to spike but for now the BoE will not be raising interest rates, it would simply cause more problems.

If you are expecting the pound to just keep rising you could therefore be very disappointed as we need to see some really good data to warrant such a spike. I find the best way to maximise your return on your currency exchange is to set realistic targets and limits. If you would like some assistance in the execution and planning of your transfers please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk, even if your transfer is just a once off, we can help get you the most for your money.

Thank you,

Jonathan

 

 

Sterling Poised On The Bank Of England Minutes

Sterling is still looking fairly good after the Easter break, with particular pressure growing versus the Euro.  With recent good news in the UK jobs market and retail sector, there is a growing sense of optimism surrounding the pound.  Tomorrow sees the latest Bank of England Minutes published, and although it seems unlikely any of the members will have voted for a rate hike, it seems more a question of when, not if, one of them will break ranks and decide UK interest rates need to go up.  I suspect sterling may still make headway against a few currencies as there will be little data out to dent the pound, with retail figures at the end of the week once again set to show a positive trend.

We have Eurozone PMI data out tomorrow morning and again there is the possibility that weak figures could see the Euro slip further so anyone holding Euro may want to sell sooner rather than later.  Australian inflation data is due out in a few hours and the pound has been hovering near 1.80 for a few days now.  Weak figures could see sterling break this barrier, but a strong showing may keep sterling trapped under the 1.80 barrier for a while longer.

If you need to make a currency transfer and would like some more ideas about the services we offer please feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

Quiet start to the week for the pound following the Easter break as focus will look to the Bank of England minutes tomorrow (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling exchange rates have consolidated this morning pushing on close to 1.22 against the Euro and reaching 1.6825 against the US dollar. Looking at data to start the working week look out for the following:

- Euro Zone consumer confidence figures today at 15:00 – expected to show a slight improvement

- Speech from former FED Chairman Ben Bernanke at 16:45 this afternoon

- RBA inflation figures overnight at 02:30 am

- Tomorrow 09:30 Bank of England minutes

- Tomorrow 21:00 RBNZ interest rate decision

- Thursday US Initial Jobless claims 13:30

- Friday Retails Sales figures at 09:30

As you can see it is a relatively busy end to the week with focus for anyone with an interest in the pound being the Bank of England minutes tomorrow morning and Friday’s retail sales figures. Tomorrows minutes will give insight as to how the nine members from the MPC voted in relation to interest rates and will give clues as to future monetary policy.

Should you have an upcoming bank to bank money exchange to arrange and you would like more information regarding the full currency service we provide please contact the office on +44 (0)1494 725353 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Consolidates Against Most Majors

After initial wobbles early this morning, sterling has consolidated its gains before the Easter break.  Most UK news of late including retail figures and unemployment, has all been exceptionally good, allowing the pound to make headway against most of the majors.  However the gains are being limited by the fact the Bank of England is still highly unlikely to adjust interest rates before the second quarter of 2015.

The UK markets will be closed tomorrow and on Monday, however many other countries will be open for business as usual so we could still see some movement although I suspect sterling will be reasonably well supported because of the recent jobs news.  We have Australian next Tuesday evening so I am hoping we can break back into the 1.80 barrier for GBP AUD, and whilst European inflation figures recently were just about passable, I am hopeful that next week’s Markit PMI could trigger further weakness for the single currency.

If you are likely to need a currency transfer in the near future and would like to discuss how best to go about it then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work.

Sterling having a better run as we head to the long Easter break (Mike Vaughan)

As we head to the long Easter weekend the pound has begun to show some signs of positivity, notably against the Euro and US dollar with rates at a near four year high against the greenback. Prior to this the pound had seen some volatile times against a host of currencies and in particular the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.

In fact earlier this week the pound was trading at its lowest level against the Australian Dollar since November last year having shifted over 7% from the highs of January. This makes a difference of 24k AUD in a little over three months on a £200k money exchange. Looking at other currencies and the market is also proving very volatile against the NZD having shifted over 5% since February and the ZAR with the pound being some 6% down on this year’s high of 18.81.

Since these lows the pound has shifted back towards 1.80 against the AUD following strong UK unemployment figures yesterday which are now below the 7% level sitting at 6.9% and the sentiment coming from the RBA minutes that maybe they are not as comfortable as originally suggested with the current value of the Australian Dollar. For me this pair is now likely to settle around the 1.80 range.

To finish off the working week the UK has little in the way of data releases with initial jobless claims from the US at 13:30 the major data of note. Should you need to get anything locked in before the Easter weekend then there is still time. Registration is free and carries no obligation and can be done on-line all in a matter of minutes. Contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike mgv@currencies.co.uk

Two Important considerations forecasting Pound Sterling Exchange Rates

Good afternoon Readers! The pound is at some truly excellent levels currently, levels that should not be easily dismissed in the hope of much better rates. If you need to buy or sell currency there are a few pointers to note that will make your life easier and your wallet heavier!

Accept that you will not get the ‘top’ or the ‘bottom’ of the market. All too often I am managing one of my client’s currency exposure and they base all their calculations on a recent high. So for example selling Euros to buy pounds at 1.19 or buying Euros with pounds at 1.22. If you do this you are likely to be disappointed. Speak to me about what is a more realistic rate to achieve by calling 01494 787 478 or why not email me jmw@currencies.co.uk

Do your research! There can be major difference between the exchange rates offered by banks and currency brokers like us. But there can also be major differences between the rates offered by different brokers. Here at poundsterlingforecast.com we seek to undercut other brokers and on large volumes the differences can be significant.

GBPEUR is currently 1,2131, GBPUSD is 1.6751, GBPAUD is 1.7921 and GBPCAD is 1.8261

Getting the best exchange rate on a large volume currency transfer (£10,000 +) makes a big difference to the amount you receive. If you are transferring a sum of this size and want to learn the current forecast please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk for the very best rates and latest news on what will move your rate!

Jonathan

 

Good Week So Far For Sterling

As predicted sterling is having a good week so far after better than expected UK Industrial and Manufacturing figures yesterday, however much of the key data this week is still to be released, so there will no doubt be a few twists and turns in the value of the pound.

The Dollar has struggled against the pound in the last few days, but the big driver is likely to be the US Fed Minutes out this evening, so I would expect some serious Dollar volatility in the next 24 hours.  Whilst the pound has remained pretty robust against the Dollar this year, I still feel that ultimately there will be some form of correction once US growth really kicks in to interest rate forecasts, and the pace at which the Fed taper their QE program.  Whether this will be triggered tonight seems unlikely but is a risk, so if you are buying Dollars it may be worth taking a look.  Should you wish to find out more about how to transfer Dollars at better exchange rates than the banks then email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain.

Sterling Euro rates are on the way back up due to good UK data and more signs of wobbles in Europe.  German exports were down this morning, and whilst overall unemployment figures for the EU have dropped recently, the rate has gone up in Italy, and we have Greek figures out on Thursday, so is the divide between Nordic states and the southern continent increasing?  German CPI data could be hugely important on Friday as if this is weak we could see another round of Euro weakness, given inflation in Europe is becoming a concern.  Low figures have already been mentioned by Draghi as problematic, and the longer they remain low, the harder they will likely be to combat, so markets may start pricing in some kind of intervention by the ECB.  Euro sellers beware, whereas this could be a great opportunity for anyone looking to buy Euro with pounds.  If you would like help to get the best rate to sell Euro, then why not try our currency transfer service?  Email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk to find out more.

The Aussie Dollar has continued to push the pound after the signing of a Japanese Australian trade deal the other day, raising growth prospects and opportunities for the economy Down Under.  Given the RBA halt to rate cuts the AUD seems to be going from strength to strength against the pound, USD, and Euro, so it will be interesting to see what the Fed Minutes do here.  We also have Aussie jobs data out overnight so this could be a watershed moment- either reinforcing the Aussie’s position, or causing it to retrace its steps if the data is weak.  Chinese CPI comes out on Friday so expect a turbulent few days for the Aussie Dollar and sellers may be ready to move quickly just in case.  If you are transferring Aussie Dollars into Euro, pounds or UD Dollars, and would like some assistance then feel free to email me, Colm, at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help you get the best exchange rate.

GBP/EUR through 1.21 and GBP/USD close to 1.68 (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has had a strong day against a host of currencies following a strong showing this morning for UK industrial and manufacturing figures. Both were much stronger than forecast setting the tone for the day with the pound rallying to a high of 1.2145 against the Euro and  1.6755 against the US dollar. Sterling was also to find some support following this afternoons NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) latest GDP estimate which has pushed its latest estimate from 0.8% to 0.9% This bodes well for official GDP data scheduled for release later this month.

Looking ahead to the rest of the week and tomorrows FOMC minutes will be the next main area to focus on. This will give insight as to future monetary policy and what the FED may have in store relating to future tapering of QE and interest rates. This can have a big impact on risk appetite and can prove to be a volatile time during and after its release. These will be made publicly available at 19:00 tomorrow.

Looking ahead to Thursday and the ECB monthly report will be the focus as this contains a detailed analysis of the prevailing economic situation and the risks to price stability. It also provides articles on a wide range of topics related to the tasks of the ECB and hence clues can be given as to future policy. With the current deflationary pressures in Europe this will be of particular interest, any clues as to whether they may consider an interest rate cut and this could see further pressure on the Euro.

Following the ECB monthly report at 09:00 will be the Bank of England interest rate decision at 12:00. Rates are expected to remain on hold at 0.5% and I would expect little impact on the pound as a result.

For me the pound is currently representing some good value trading at a one month high against the Euro and a near four year high against the greenback. To take advantage and find out more about the currency service we provide then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

Good Week Ahead Next Week For Sterling

Sterling is slowly climbing again versus the Euro after the ECB comments yesterday, and were reinforced after the US non-farm payroll data this afternoon.  There isn’t much in the way of UK data next week, and we aren’t expecting any surprises from the Bank of England meeting, so much will depend on some of the other major currency releases.

Monday sees Swiss inflation which has been on the low side.  If this trend continues it could be great news for GBP CHF exchange rates, as sterling is already creeping back.

The early hours of Tuesday sees the Bank of Japan rate decision- there has been a lot of talk about the BofJ intervening again so the Yen has been weakening a touch in advance of this so expect volatility here.

Wednesday evening is when the next set of Fed Minutes are published so this is likely to have an impact across the board on exchange rates, as well as sterling Dollar in particular.  If you are buying Dollars it does seem like the greenback is finally fighting back against the pound so be wary on the back of this.

As we go into the early hours of Thursday morning, we have Aussie jobs figures.  The Aussie has been pretty strong against the pound as the RBA have made it clear they are not looking to cut interest rates again in the near future, allowing the Aussie to reverse some of its near collapse early in the year.  If jobs figures are good it could help reinforce new confidence in the Aussie, especially if supported by Chinese PMI data on Friday.

The other big inflation news on Friday will be German CPI- inflation for Europe, or the lack of it, is now becoming a big concern so if the biggest economy in the EU produces a weak figure then expect Euro weakness.

If you do have a currency transfer to make and would like to find out more about our exchange rates and transfer service, please feel free to email me, Colm, at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

Quiet day for the pound with focus on US non-farm payroll figures at 13:30 (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has pushed through 1.21 this morning continuing on from yesterday afternoons post interest rate decision from the ECB. Yesterday there was a outside chance that Draghi may have cut interest rates to counteract the deflationary pressures within the Euro Zone, however he refrained from this but commented action would have to be taken should deflationary pressures continue. He was a little unclear as to what policies would be used with him suggesting ‘extra measures’ would be used. What these would be is a little unclear but he did not rule out printing of money and an interest cut still has to be a real option. This is likely to keep pressure on the Euro and could result in some good buy opportunities for those that are on the ball. Anyone selling may wish to act sooner rather than later.

Today there is little data of note from the UK and Europe today and focus for the pound will be industrial and manufacturing figures on Tuesday morning released at 09:30.

Looking at the US dollar and this afternoons non-farm payroll will be the focus. Data will be released at 13:30 and can cause some significant shifts on the market across the board as it is a clear indication as to how the US economy is performing and can have an impact on global risk appetite. This can cause shifts for the riskier currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR. Should you have a trade to arrange with any of these currencies non-farms could be one to avoid.

Should you have an upcoming fx transfer to arrange and you would like assistance getting the best deal on the market then contact the office on 01494 787478. As a specialist foreign exchange provider we have multiple contracts available to help maximise your exchange or protect yourself against adverse market movement. To discuss the current market and the service we provide then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

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