Tag Archives: pound

China shares rebounding helping Sterling (Joshua Privett)

The roller-coaster seems set to continue following the rout from the stock markets at the start of the week. Chinese shares have finally rebounded, and closed the day at 5% higher after massive losses just 3 days ago. However, the recovery is relatively minuscule compared to the losses suffered already.

With returning confidence to the stock market, and also with assurances that China’s slide has stabilised for now, the USD has rising against Sterling, dropping GBP/USD to 1.54 as UK trading opened.

GBP/EUR is a more interesting story. The Euro inflated its value rapidly as the capital from the mass sell off of stocks entered the single currency as one of the cheaper ‘safe haven’ options. This drove up the value of the Euro, and now investors are selling their Euros off, making staggering profits, and buying stocks at dirt cheap prices. More proof that there’s always money to be made, even in a crisis. But this sell off is hurting the value of the Euro in the short term, causing rates to gradually climb back up.

Those with Euros to sell in the next few months, it is unlikely that this situation in China will be helping you to the same degree within this period. This is still the best time to be buying Sterling with Euros since May, and a similar timeline for US Dollars. Call me on 01494 787 478 to receive tailored advice based on your situation and the allotted timeline for your transfer, and if your need is pressing I can also supply a free quote. jjp@currencies.co.uk

After Black Monday – what can we expect on Tuesday?

Sterling rates were in as much chaos yesterday as the financial markets. GBP/EUR had fallen 2.71%, whilst GBP/AUD had increased 4.1% – a difference of 9 cents on the rates in a single day of trading.

Black Monday, the mass sell of of stocks as markets reeled from a suddenly obvious slowdown in China (a massive contributor to global growth), caused a huge amount of capital that was previously held as securities being released; which either had to go into alternative investment or remain liquid in a currency of their choice.

Most of this capital fled into safe-haven currencies such as Sterling and the USD. Yet, strangely, the lion-share ended up in the Euro which is not traditionally considered a safe-haven.

The great lengths the European Union, European Central Bank, and particularly the German Parliament have gone to recently to bolster the stability of the Euro -financially and politically- have made it more attractive to investors as a currency to move to when taking cover from an explosive stock-market. Another cherry on top is that the Euro is still historically incredibly cheap.

So I think we can expect Sterling to make gains today against commodity currencies such as the CAD, AUD and NZD, albeit unlikely to the same degree. But GBP/EUR may fall again as well. Chinese stocks fell another 4% already and UK markets have only just opened.

We are currently in an incredibly precarious position on the currency markets. It is the best time to sell Euros since May when Sterling weakened on the expectation of a hung-parliament. I strongly recommend that anyone with a currency requirement call in to 01494 787 478 and ask for Joshua. We will know more as the day goes on and I can keep you up-to date once we establish initial contact, and give you tailored advice on your situation. I am happy to supply a free quote and guarantee to beat any rates offered by banks and competing brokerages. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

Shares continue to plummet (Joshua Privett)

Sterling continues to lose value as financial markets go into turmoil. Since markets opened this morning the Pound is already 1.5 cents down against the Euro and looks set to continue sliding. Stock-markets in London opened 3% down already, with value evaporating rapidly.

Panic concerning the Chinese economy has caused a mass sell-off of shares, as investors are nervous that their assets will continue to be devalued. This atmosphere on the markets has completely changed the outlook for raised interest rates in the UK and US economy. Raising rates when it will be difficult for banks to make returns on a weakening global market would be self-destructive behaviour. Furthermore, low rates are considered a buffer against negative external market forces on a domestic economy, encouraging people to spend and keep the economy running from the inside.

Much of the recent run of Sterling and USD strength has been based around this accepted fact that they will be the first nations to raise rates in the Western World since the financial crash. This spanner in the works has likely added another 6 months/1 year to the timeline. Sterling’s value has deflated, and the Euro has benefited from investors moving away from Sterling and the USD searching for short-term returns.

I would strongly suggest those with Euros to buy over the next month to get in contact immediately for a free quote on their transfer. We will likely see 1.35 on the markets by the end of trading this morning, and this situation in China is not a short-term phenomenon. Call me on 01494 787 478 and ask Joshua – quote this article to receive a free quote on your transfer and tailored advice for your own situation. jjp@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR crashing following FED minutes (Joshua Privett)

The Federal Reserve Bank of America’s minutes from their July meeting yesterday has altered the whole timeline for global interest rate rises. The consensus among analysts was that most were expecting an interest rate hike in September, but the views expressed in the minutes by the FED members has put seeds of doubt into the market prices had previous reflected a ‘sure thing’. The stimulus for their change in heart seems to be mainly attributed to a slowdown in China and prolonged low oil prices, which crashed again overnight, affecting all major commodity currencies like the CAD, USD and AUD.

What does this have to do with GBP/EUR rates?

Firstly, Sterling’s current strength is largely based around the established understanding that the UK will be following close behind the US in raising interest rates. Multiple reasons do not permit the Bank of England to raise rates before their cousins in the FED. Due to the current weakness in the Euro, should the UK be the first Western country to raise interest rates, the value of the Pound would go out of control, and our largest trading partner will not be able to afford our goods. As such the delay in America for raising rates will have a similar delay for the UK. This is why the Pound is weakening across the board against all major currencies as investors move away to get more short-term returns elsewhere. 

Furthermore, Euro strength is why these rates are crashing rather than simply move gradually against the favour of Euro buyers. Yesterday saw GBP/EUR fall following increased confidence in the Eurozone, a result of the final ratification of the Greek bailout deal. This was exacerbated by the FED minutes as, traditionally, when the USD weakens this translates into Euro strength. USD/EUR is the most commonly traded currency pair in the world, so USD weakening usually means that investors are selling off their USD for EUR, particularly while the single currency is a bargain.

There are no expected data releases today to counteract this rapid crash in GBP/EUR rates. I fully expect that rates will drop below 1.40 today. Those with Euros to buy over the next month will see their budgets tightened further down the road. This change to interest rate timelines will put long-term pressure on the Pound and not be reversed in a week.

I strongly recommend calling me on 01494 787 478 and asking for Joshua in order to receive a free quote, and some tailored advice to your particular situation. I guarantee to beat any rate offered by banks and other sources and will happily peg these current buying levels until the end of the year at no additional cost. Alternatively email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk for me information, particularly if you are a Euro seller and want advice on how to ride this move in your favour.

Pound Sterling exchange rates rise along with inflation figures – Rate hike edging closer? (Daniel Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have had a good day against all major currencies during trading today following following news that inflation year on year was now sat at 0.1% which was slightly higher than market expectations of inflation remaining at 0%.

This has now led to money in the city being piled on interest rate hikes for the U.K potentially being a little sooner than had been thought 24 hours ago. We would indeed need to see average earnings and unemployment figures for the U.K show an improvement over the coming months for this to really become a reality but should this happen then Sterling may be in for a good run of form.

i think the key in a situation such as this is to hedge your bets and protect yourself from any adverse market movements, as regular readers will be more than aware when Sterling does tend to look buoyant, more often than not something seems to come out to knock it straight back down again.

If you have a pending currency exchange to carry out then I would suggest splitting your requirement into chunks rather than leaving the full sum exposed. A lot of people do fall into the trap that they have (as an example £200,000) to exchange so they need to time booking it out perfectly. By splitting into two lots of £100k or even four tranches of £50k and doing it over a period of weeks or months, depending on how long you have to wait you can eliminate some of the risk whilst still leaving a healthy sum to take advantage of it all with.

If you need to carry out a currency exchange for a personal property transaction or a corporate exchange for your company then I can help you both in terms of getting not only the very top level of exchange rates but a smooth and efficient level of service too. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk letting me know exactly what your requirement is and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Commodity currencies have been extremely volatile since the devaluation of the Yuan over three consecutive days of trading last week. The lowered value of the Yuan points to decreased confidence in an economy which represents one sixth of the world’s population. As a result this is lowering forecasts for future global demand for commodities, which has hit currencies like the CAD, and AUD hardest. For more information and examples on how these currencies are expected to perform over the next few months and predictions on how they will weather the storm click here.

 

Sterling exchange rate news against Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar (Daniel Wright)

Sterling Euro

The Pound has been fairly range bound against the Euro of late however still remains over 10% up against the single currency since the turn of the year. A difference of over €15,000 per £100,000!!

Unemployment figures due out tomorrow morning at 09:30am will be key for the performance of the Pound during trading tomorrow. Figures are expected to remain at 5.6% and any change to this may cause a volatile start to the day.

Unemployment and average earnings figures are one of the key factors that will impact the Bank of England’s decision on when to raise interest rates so this data is extremely important.

Later in the week on Friday we also have European GDP (Growth figures) and inflation which will show us how much the economy within the Eurozone has grown or shrank during a specific period of time. Expectations are for a little improvement year on year so this may give the Euro a little strength, making it more expensive to buy.

You should at least make me aware if you do need to exchange soon as I can then act as your eyes and ears on the markets to try and ensure you do not get caught out if the markets take a turn for the worse. Also feel free to check out my section on forward contracts below. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk or call me on 01494 787478 if you do need to carry out a transfer soon.

Sterling Dollar

Sterling has also been fairly range bound against the Dollar lately as investors and speculators continue to second guess just when an interest rate hike may be coming for the States.

Every time it looks like all signs are pointing towards an imminent hike in interest rates the economic data released appears to dampen expectations due to not quite being as solid as has been expected.

Personally I feel we may see a rate hike before the end of the year but if I had Dollars to sell I would be tempted to exchange at least half of my requirement sooner rather than later as if the hike continues to be delayed then rates may creep back towards the 1.60 level once again.

U.S Retail Sales are due out on Thursday afternoon so this is a key data release to watch out for if you are in the market to buy or sell USD in the near future.

You should at least make me aware if you do need to exchange soon as I can then act as your eyes and ears on the markets to try and ensure you do not get caught out if the markets take a turn for the worse. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk or call me on 01494 787478 if you do need to carry out a transfer soon.

Sterling – Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar

We have seen fantastic buying opportunities for both of these currencies over the past few months as China finally starts to show the cracks of growing at such a monumental rate.

Chinese data out overnight weakened both of these currencies after they had staged a minor fight back.Governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens still appears content to see a weaker Australian Dollar and data out from New Zealand has not been particularly promising so I feel both these currencies have the potential to still drop further. If you are looking to buy either currency however then it is key to remain vigilant as both currencies have the potential to turn around their  trends extremely quickly and with great force.

Sterling – Canadian Dollar

After finally breaking 2 those looking to buy Canadian Dollars are also seeing a great opportunity compared to where this currency pairing has been sat for the past few years.

With oil prices seriously adding to the grey cloud currently hovering over the Canadian economy the outlook is fairly gloomy for the Canadian Dollar as it stands.

Once again though we do need to remember that it would not take much to see the GBP/CAD rate drop back below 2 should oil prices start to gather traction again so it is imperative that you keep a close eye on this pairing if you have an exchange to carry out.

Forward contracts

If you have a requirement in the future but you do not yet have the full availability of funds you can book out a forward contract. This is where you can book a rate out for up to a year in advance with just a small deposit, removing the risk of the currency market making your purchase any more expensive in the future.

This is ideal if you are in the process of buying a property overseas as you can know exactly how much the property is going to cost you today and eliminate the risk of the Pound dropping away again and missing out on this great opportunity.

I look forward to speaking with you if you have any questions or queries or you would like to book out a rate of exchange.

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Pound Sterling exchange rate forecast – Unemployment is key for exchange rates this week (Daniel Wright)

We have a reasonably quiet week ahead for U.K economic data with in my view the most important being on Wednesday morning at 09:30am where we see the release of the U.K unemployment rate, expected to remain at 5.6%.

Unemployment and average earnings figures are one of the key components in the Bank of England’s decision as to when they may hike interest rates and with news on Thursday that still only one member had voted in favour of a rate hike those looking for Sterling strength will need to see an improvement in these figures to give the Pound a boost back in the right direction.

Later in the week we have U.S Retails sales figures (Thursday) and European GDP (Growth figures) due out on Friday which I would expect to have an impact on the value of the Dollar and Euro.

All in all a fairly quiet week on the markets but as regular followers will know, it is fairly rare that surprises do not pop up so it is important that if you have a currency transfer to carry out in the near future that you keep in close contact with a proactive and efficient currency broker.

If you would like me on your side for your future currency exchange then I would be more than happy to help you personally, I deal with clients exchanging anything from £2000 to multi million Pound transactions and will be happy to add you to my list of clients.

All you need  to do is email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to give you a call to explain the various options we have available to you.

GBP falls against all major currencies (Joshua Privett)

Changes to the release of UK interest rate decision data had traders and investors around the world fixated on their computers at 12:00 GMT today. Previously the announcements were spread out across the month to control GBP volatility, the decision to release all of this on the same day condensed a month’s worth of volatility into a few minutes of trading. The results were staggering.

It was expected that 2 or 3 members would suddenly support a rate hike, after months where it was unanimously rejected. Instead only one of the 9 voted to increase the base rate. GBP had strengthened heavily in recent weeks off the back of what was expected (as this would get us close to the 5 needed for a majority) but this rather dovish tone found those gains evapourating instantly. Their reasoning was that a stock-market crash in China and a still very present Greek crisis, will continue to drag on global growth, so a rate hike would be premature. Essentially, it seems an interest rate rise in the UK has been pushed back dramatically on the calendar of investors.

This resulted in Sterling weakness. In 3 seconds GBP/EUR dropped from 1.43 to the lower 1.42’s and with an eventual low of the day of 1.419. GBP/USD rates dropped by a similar amount, with a high/low difference of 2 cents, falling to a low of 1.546 during trading today.

Anyone who will be using GBP as a purchasing currency took a hit today, but not as much as they would think. The rates we have enjoyed since the start of the week have been purely based on market psychology rather than concrete economic data to justify currency strength. Now that these hyped up expectations were not met, these current rates for GBP/EUR and other GBP pairings are a true reflection of what the highs should be for this year. I would not expect another expectation of a rate hike this year to boost rates back up again, particularly after the dovish tones heard today from guardians of UK financial policy.

The Bank of England will not boost Sterling’s value for you, so speak to an experienced currency broker who can. I can maximise the value of the Pounds you hold if you have a transaction. Even if your requirements are not until next year, you do not have to wait and hope these rates will still be available. They can be pegged to allow you to budged more effectively and make sure you don’t miss out. Email me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk for a free quote and tailored advice on your transaction. Alternatively call 01494 787 478 after 8:30 am tomorrow and ask for Joshua.

Do you want to get the most for your money when exchanging currency? Contact us today!!

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we pride ourselves on keeping you up to date with the latest market movements but in case you didn’t know we all work for an award winning currency brokerage too.

Feel free to get in touch with us today by filling in our rate quote form and get yourself a free, no obligation quote on your currency.

For the sake of less than a minute filling in a form it may save you hundreds or even thousands of Pounds – Especially if you have used a broker for years or have an online platform you buy from (essentially a robot that will not negotiate your rate like we will), you should always compare with us as we would be confident that we will save you money.

We look forward to hearing from you soon.

Strong GDP Figures surprise markets and boost Sterling (Joshua Privett)

Even though yesterday was a relatively quiet day for data releases, significant weakening for Sterling was recorded. Rounding off a general trend away from the fresh 8 year highs reached last week for GBP/EUR rates at 1.44, poor retail sales figures released in the UK economy caused rates to drop to the low 1.40’s. It was expected that due to the contraction recorded in the retail sector, normally a fantastic performer for the UK economy, that GDP figures will dissapoint markets further on the British economy. As a result, this lack of confidence in the Pound caused rates dip back below the magic 1.40 marker.

However, GDP figures came in higher than expected, surprising everyone, and causing all of the losses for the Pound on Monday to be reversed. Rates suddenly catapulted up to 1.41 this morning. But it is important to note that rates were moving in the opposite direction before this little psychological stunt in the markets. GDP figures also did exceed expectations at the start of the month, they simply did not come in lower than the 0.7% previously predicted.

Without strong data to change the current course of GBP/EUR rates following the agreekment, I fully expect rates to continue journeying downwards. Those looking to purchase Euros should call 01494 787 478 and ask for Joshua to receive a free quote on your transfer. Alternatively, email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss how to maximise the value of your Sterling while the market is moving against you.

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