Tag Archives: pound

Will the Pound continue to fall? (Joseph Wright)

Those currently following Sterling exchange rates will have noticed the swings in exchange rates last week, as the Pound continues to find it’s new trading ranges since it fell so steeply in the immediate aftermath of the ‘Brexit’ vote, an decision made by the British public that has shocked the world.

Many of the major currency pairs are trading in a more volatile fashion than normal when compared with Sterling, which is presenting investors or others with a Sterling currency requirement with some difficult decisions to make. This is where we try to help our clients with timing their trades, and considering that on Friday the GBP/EUR pair hit a best monthly level of 1.2038, and then subsequently dropped by over a percentage point off the back of negative news, it just shows how important timing your trade is and how volatile trading conditions can be at the moment.

Fridays drop was for a simple reason, we received the first piece of financial data that offered us an insight into how the UK economy is performing and the news was negative. Economic activity has fallen to it’s lowest level since 2009, and some analysts are predicting that the UK economy could contract by almost half a percent in the third quarter of this year.

Moving forward I’m expecting the financial data to continue to disappoint on release, mostly due to the uncertainty created by the ‘Brexit’. This is likely to apply pressure on the Pound as the year goes on so it may be an idea to consider exchanging your Pounds sooner rather than later if you’re a Sterling seller.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound it’s worth your time getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call in and ask reception for Joe on 01494 787 478.

 

Is the pound likely to recover? (Dayle Littlejohn)

Many economists pre referendum predicted if the UK were to leave the European Union the pounds exchange rates would plummet and economic data would deteriorate. One month later it seems the majority of economists were right.

Last week UK Prime Minister Theresa May started her talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande. Talks seemed to ok with the German Chancellor however the French President made it clear, for the UK to trade for free in the single market, they would have to accept the free movement of people. This was the main reason the UK decided to leave the EU therefore one leader is going to have to back down and I believe it will be Theresa May.

The latest release of Markit’s purchasing Managers index has fallen to the lowest levels since April 2009. Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 from 52.1 and Markit’s Services PMI plummeted to 47.4 from 52.3. The data release suggests the UK are heading for another recession and therefore an interest rate cut and further stimulus (quantitative easing) is inevitable.

Looking ahead the UK have their next interest rate decision on the 4th August. With the PMI data release this week and the Monetary Policy Committee statement that they would loosen monetary policy if required, the pounds future for the remainder of the year is looking bleak. I expect sharp falls after August 4th.

Very simply if I were trading GBP into a foreign currency in the next 6 months and I had the sterling available there’s a good chance I would trade before August 4th. However the other currency you are buying might change my opinion.

If you have a currency exchange to make involving the pound it makes sense to explore all of your options. Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we understand every client’s situation is different, therefore we devise a strategy that meets your needs and requirements. As for exchange rates we can beat any UK brokerage or bank and I look forward to proving this to you. The clients I deal with are high net individuals, businesses and property buyers and sellers that are trading £10,000 to the multi millions.

Feel free to email me with the currency pair you are trading (GBPEUR. GBPUSD, GBPAUD) and the reason for the transfer (transfer of wages, property purchase) and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company. drl@currencies.co.uk

Enjoy the rest of your weekend and I look forward to speaking with you Monday morning.

BOE Interest Rate Decision and QE could Weaken the Pound (Daniel Charles Johnson)

Sterling Overview

With the appointment of Theresa May as new Prime Minister and a firm cabinet now in place. I would expect a gradual rally for Sterling against most major currencies. There is however the Bank of England (BOE) interest rate decision on 4th August. There is a high chance of a rate cut from the already record low of 0.5% to 0.25%. This is common knowledge so I would not expect a massive drop in the Pound’s value as it may well be factored into the market. What could damage Sterling is if Mark Carney the governor of the BOE decides to implement Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. He has £150bn at his disposal so if there is an announcement expect the Pound to fall in value. If you have to move short to medium time it may be wise to move before this date.

GBP/AUD

If you are an Aussie Dollar seller it is difficult to justify hanging on until 4th August. There is a rate decision due down under on the 2nd August and there is the chance of a cut which will weaken the Aussie. With current levels the best since September 2014 I would be looking to take advantage of current levels. To procrastinate could prove costly.

If you are an Aussie buyer potentially you could wait for the decision on 2nd August to see if there is a cut and GBP/AUD moves in your favour and then trade after the announcement on 2nd or 3rd avoiding a potential fall on 4th August.

GBP/EUR

Mario Draghi, the Head of the European Central Bank today announced the possibility of a QE increase later in the year. This has seen GBP/EUR to move above 1.20. If you are a Euro buyer I would be looking to move before the 4th August, the highest we have been since the EU referendum is 1.21 so 1.20 doesn’t look like a bad time to bite the bullet.

Euro Sellers wait until after the interest rate decision and then get your trade done. Following Draghi’s comments the Euro is in a precarious position, especially when you throw the Greece and Italy situation into the mix.

GBP/USD

USD buyers, trade before the 4th August. Sellers wait until the decision on the 4th then trade. You are currently selling at the best levels since 1985.  It is a no brainer.

If you have a currency requirement it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is key during such a volatile  times, If you have a veteran broker on board he can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would like me to help with your trade I will be happy to help. Let me know the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the UK and as such I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. You would be looking at around a 4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Inflation and unemployment figures key for where the pound heads next (Daniel Wright)

We have seen a  fairly quiet day on the trading floor today with little in terms of economic data for the markets to feel off of, however the next two days there are a few big releases for the markets to get their teeth into.

The Pound has been sat just above and just below what I see as a pivotal point against the Euro of 1.20. I feel that if we see Sterling break above this level then the Pound may push up by a couple of cents.

Tomorrow morning we have inflation data out at 09:30am and with inflation being one of the key factors involved in interest rate changes, investors and speculators alike will be watching  to see the results.

Following on from this we have the unemployment rate on Wednesday morning, also due to be released at 09:30am. Expectations are for unemployment to remain steady at 5% so any deviation from this level will no doubt lead to the Pound being particularly volatile.

I personally still feel that the weakness for Sterling will not last, of course there are banana skins ahead that could lead to the odd drop off, but in my opinion Sterling has slightly overshot the runway and should be a little stronger than it is at present.

We do not only offer out up to date and insightful market information but if you have a currency exchange to carry out involving any of the major currencies and you would like to speak with me personally then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk – I deal with clients buying and selling properties overseas, business transactions, high-net-worth individuals and premier league footballers on a daily basis so would be happy to assist you too in the strictest of confidence.

It only takes two minutes to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk to get a comparison and those few moments spent may save you a great deal of money as it is very rare that I cannot better someones rate of exchange and in this current market it is even more important to make the most of your money.

Pound rallies as the Bank of England leave rates on hold – Boost for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

Today we have seen the Pound gain value against every major currency following the Bank of England members voting 8-1 to keep interest rates on hold.

An interest rate cut had been expected by the financial markets and somewhat priced in so the fact that this did not happen led to the Pound gaining back some of the value it had lost.

For anyone looking to buy foreign currency this is a welcome result as your up and coming currency purchase has just become a little cheaper! One word of warning is that Mark Carney did state that easing would more than likely have to happen next month so don’t feel like we are not going to see an interest rate change or other easing bought in, it has just been merely delayed for the time being.

I would imagine the recent change in the political position has had an impact in this decision and that the Bank of England now wish to hold fire on making any sweeping moves to see how the land lies once the dust has settled.

We deal a lot with clients looking to buy or sell overseas property and I had a good long chat with the managing Director of Girasol Homes, a property finder for clients looking to buy property in Portugal and Spain (they do also cater for those looking to sell). We discussed the current market conditions and everything really is a lot more positive than many people have been led to believe out there in the overseas property market.

Those looking to sell have seen a welcome boost in the value of their Euros should they need to bring money back into GBP and those looking to buy  are only a few cents from the rolling ten year average for GBP/EUR so the market really isn’t in that bad a place. Those buyers that do have concerns about market conditions could also approach the possibility of hedging their position a little with a mortgage, this appears to be an inceasingly popular approach.

Should you be looking to buy or sell in Spain or Portugal and you would like to speak with Nigel about the market or how he will be able to help then feel free to visit www.girasolhomes.co.uk or email him at nigel@girasolhomes.co.uk quoting Pound Sterling Forecast so he knows where you found him.

Back on the currency front we have a fairly quiet day for most currencies now but overnight we have Chinese growth figures which should impact the Australian Dollar, and European inflation/trade balance figures at 10:00am tomorrow.

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England is speaking tomorrow at 1pm so for anyone with an interest in buying or selling Sterling it would be well worth you getting in touch with us directly so that we can keep you in touch with the action.

Not only do we ensure clients get up to the minute market news but we all work for a brokerage turning over roughly a billion pounds worth of currency a year, meaning we could probably get you a better rate of exchange than your current provider or bank due to our buying power.

If you would like to get a quote or to find out more information about our award winning rates and customer service then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch personally.

Sterling Euro rates break past 1.20 owing to leadership change (Tom Holian)

Sterling exchange rates have risen dramatically during this week’s trading vs the Euro with the news that Theresa May will be taking over as Prime Minister as of later today.

The leadership race was previously set to take 9 weeks with May going up against Leadsom. However, Leadsom withdrew earlier this week and this meant May would take over.

The political stability has helped to strengthen the Pound vs the Euro and the US Dollar as it means that confidence has returned to the British economy and therefore Sterling exchange rates.

There is potential for further volatility tomorrow with the UK’s next interest rate decision.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney was very pro-remain and has warned that a vote to leave the European Union could be damaging for the UK.

He has also hinted that the UK could cut interest rates in the near future so any change tomorrow could see Sterling’s gains against the Euro quickly eroded.

However, I think it would be a bit too early to interfere with monetary policy just yet as with the political landscape a bit more certain I think any policy change is unnecessary.

Turning the focus to the Eurozone the Italian banks are struggling at the moment and the ECB will likely have to do something and this could cause the Euro to weaken if the problem is not dealt with swiftly.

Indeed, the total amount that international banks have lent to Italy is as much as €550bn.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

Alternatively call me directly and ask for Tom Holian 0044-1494-787-478.

 

 

Sterling on the up! (Steve Eakins)

Sterling exchange rates have seen a welcome boost on the news that Theresa May is expected to be installed as the new PM on Wednesday evening, David Cameron will officially had in his resignation to the Queen on tomorrow making Theresa May the PM as the head of the party.  This has happened much quicker than expected and has brought with it some well needed certainty about the political horizon months sooner than expected. As a result the Pound has seen a boost pushing down the cost of property in Europe and the US as GBPEUR and GBPUSD rates start to climb.

I personally expect this to continue until actually confirmed on Wednesday so if you have funds which you are looking to buy, you may well want to move in the relatively near future.

Moving forward there are still risks on the horizon and the argument suggesting rates will continue in the downward direction seem much stronger than that of them rising once more.  Pressure is already building on Theresa May to call a general election once she is appointed, with the fallings to have a united Labour party and indeed without actually being voted in this seems like a string argument for pressure to build on her on this point.  An election always brings further uncertainty which the market never likes and therefore the currency in question normally sees a weakening of value.

On Thursday we also have the first meeting from the Bank of England following the referendum vote and there has been strong commentary that there will be a change in central policy announced.  This being either a change in the QE program or a cut in interest rates.  QE is still a unknown entirety as the billions that have been pumped into the market are yet to start to be repaid and there is no guidelines to suggest how the market would respond once this process starts. As a result a change in interest rates seems more likely. In the last survey 82% of economists asked expect such a decision to be announced by the bank.

It seems that this is needed to help bolster the property market, in particular the commercial market where over 40% are foreign owned.

If/when confirmed this could either have a positive driver on the pound as the markets takes this as a pro-active step, or indeed a negative impact as investors pull their money from the UK and move them into higher returning currency.  Personally I expect the later as even on the hints from Mark Carney, the head of the Bank of England, made last week that these changes would come rates dropped.

In summary the view on most trading floors seems to suggest that this recent pick up in Sterling’s value should be seen as a short term opportunity rather than a change in trend.

If you have been a regular reader and are yet to get in contact – please do so. Contact myself Steve Eakins via hse@currencies.co.uk for a personal contact quickly with further information on how to best time your transfer and therefore achieve the best price. Remembering that with over 17 years of service, if we could not save our clients’ money, we would simply not be in business.

Look forward to hearing from you.

Sterling gains modestly for a second day, but will next weeks interest rate decision push the Pound down to new lows? (Joseph Wright)

It’s now a full second week since the UK’s ‘Brexit’ vote shocked the world, particularly the financial world, and GBP exchange rates are struggling to rebound although looking at GBP exchange rates at the time of writing, we are seeing very modest gains for the Pound, offering Pound sellers some rest-bite after seeing the value of the currency drop on almost a daily basis for 2 weeks.

Sterling appears to be surrounded by uncertainty as people struggle to define whether the current levels are favourable or not when we consider the bigger picture, and whilst the Pound has dropped down to it’s lowest levels against the US Dollar since 1985, into the late 1.20’s, some analysts are expecting Sterling to continue to decline from it’s current levels, meaning that although the Pound has lost so much value we may be looking at some of the most attractive levels available for Sterling sellers between now and the end of the year (or next year if some analysts predictions are correct).

I think anyone with a GBP/EUR currency exchange to make imminently or in future should be aware of some of the predictions of major analysts, in order to gain a realistic price target moving forward.

JP Morgan’s FX strategist John Normand has outlined a price target of 1.1236 for GBP/EUR by March 2017, which is a further 5 cents below the current level of 1.1725.

Should analysts such as Mr Normand be correct, it may be an idea for anyone looking to convert Sterling into Euros to consider making that conversion sooner as opposed to later as there’s a chance the rate could become less favourable, and for those looking to convert GBP into other currencies, using the GBP/EUR exchange rate as a benchmark wouldn’t be a bad idea as if the Pound is predicted to fall against the Euro, and the fallout from the ‘Brexit’ is affecting the Euro negatively as well, it may be that other major currencies perform even better than the Euro when compared with the Pound.

Those with an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound may wish to get in contact with me (Joe) regarding strategies and how best to time the trade, or trades should you be open to the approach of a staggered entry. Our specialist currency exchange brokerage doesn’t offer financial advice but we do assist our clients with the timing of their trades based on price targets and historical data such as annual and daily highs and lows.

If you would like to discuss your currency exchange with me, and would like to consider taking advantage of award winning exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading regulated currency brokerages, feel free to email me directly ideally with a telephone number onjxw@currencies.co.uk with an outline of your requirement. You can also call me directly on 01494 787 478, just ask one of the reception team for Joe.

 

Pound Sterling exchange rates post brexit – Where do rates head next? (Daniel Wright)

So we have had a fairly dramatic few weeks since the result of the referendum and I would be pretty surprised if we don’t end up with an extremely volatile market for the next few months.

For anyone with a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months volatility brings you both, excitement, fear and opportunity as the Pound is currently at a 31 year low on a trade weighted basis.

The next big release of interest (assuming there are no more surprises) will be the Bank of England interest rate decision, meeting minutes and summary of QE due out on Thursday 14th July. Investors and speculators alike will be watching to see what move we will be seeing from Mark Carney to try and tackle the potential economic turbulence we have ahead for the U.K.

Carney has hinted at a potential interest rate cut, this may lead to further weakness for the Pound, on top of this the minutes showing what was discussed and how the plans were put in place will be of great interest and will no doubt lead to some extremely choppy trading conditions once again.

I personally feel that the plane has well and truly overshot the runway at the moment, if you look at the cold hard facts then apart from Governmental problems which will eventually resolve themselves, nothing else has actually officially changed. There is still a long way to go before we have pulled the trigger on the starting pistol to leave the EU by acting on article 50.

Banks, funds and many others are acting in advance of potential issues and the newspapers are hyping up the potential doom and gloom ahead but there is still a chance that nothing will actually change.

If you are in the process of bringing money back from overseas or you have an upcoming currency exchange requirement then these are the times that you really need to make sure you have an experienced and proactive currency broker helping you every step of the way. We have seen these kind of markets before, I worked during the European debt crisis and during Fanny May/Freddie Mac so know what may be lying next and how to tailor a game plan to try and help our clients get the most for their money.

If you are in this position then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of what you are looking to do and a contact number. Please note we do not deal in holiday money or cash.

Tomorrow we see the release of Non-Farm payroll data which can impact all major currencies, including the Australian and New Zealand Dollar. The reason this happens is because Non-Farm payroll data measures the number of people in Non-Agricultural employment in the U.S and they quite often get the prediction fairly wrong. Due to the markets moving on rumour as well as fact you can see rates move based on predictions and then swiftly correct themselves once the data is actually released.

Once again we are more than happy to add to our 60,000+ clients so if you have a currency exchange to carry out involving any of the major currencies and you would like to speak with me personally then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk – I deal with clients buying and selling properties overseas, business transactions, high-net-worth individuals and premier league footballers on a daily basis so would be happy to assist you too in the strictest of confidence.

Buying Euro and Dollar rates hit fresh lows (Joshua Privett)

Unfortunately for anyone considering purchasing a foreign currency, be it buying Euros or buying Dollars, the Pound had a further tumble on financial markets across the trading day today, and is continuing as I type this article.

The main cause behind GBP/USD reaching new 31 year lows, breaching into the 1.29’s briefly, and GBP/EUR fell even lower into the rates available in 2013 was a dramatic Q and A session with Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, following the UK’s financial stability report.

In this Carney detailed a serious swing away from traditional policy of trying to control bank lending in the wake of the financial crisis, and instead lifted the ceiling on how they were operating. Essentially he’s trying to keep the economy growing by getting the banks to lend more.

Markets reacted poorly that only a week and a half after a Brexit result the Bank is already resorting to such policies, and it makes the Bank of England interest rate decision next Thursday seem like a daunting day.

Carney has already hinted that he would use all the tools available to him to protect the UK economy, which in the Central Banking world normally translates into Quantitative Easing and interest rate cuts.

This is what the Eurozone were doing last year when they were struggling heavily, and regular readers will remember just how much such policies affected the value of the Euro. At least in short-term, this rout on Euro and Dollar buying rates seems set to continue.

Following this, exchange rates will purely depend on whether a new Conservative Prime Minister can provide a firm timeline on when the UK economy will be implementing the formalities to leave the EU, allowing markets to know the parameters they can operate within. With stability, value can be expected to return to the Pound.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement in the short or medium term should contact me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss the options open to you to maximise your rate of exchange in the current market and limit your exposure to any further falls.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, so a brief discussion could save you thousands surrounding your transfer. These current buying levels can also be fixed in place for any upcoming transfers to avoid having to accept what the rate may be on that day.

Euro and Dollar sellers can also get in contact to discuss how to ride these expected movements in your favour safely, and to make sure any improvements in your favour are not missed.