Tag Archives: pound

Sterling Consolidates Against Most Majors

After initial wobbles early this morning, sterling has consolidated its gains before the Easter break.  Most UK news of late including retail figures and unemployment, has all been exceptionally good, allowing the pound to make headway against most of the majors.  However the gains are being limited by the fact the Bank of England is still highly unlikely to adjust interest rates before the second quarter of 2015.

The UK markets will be closed tomorrow and on Monday, however many other countries will be open for business as usual so we could still see some movement although I suspect sterling will be reasonably well supported because of the recent jobs news.  We have Australian next Tuesday evening so I am hoping we can break back into the 1.80 barrier for GBP AUD, and whilst European inflation figures recently were just about passable, I am hopeful that next week’s Markit PMI could trigger further weakness for the single currency.

If you are likely to need a currency transfer in the near future and would like to discuss how best to go about it then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work.

Sterling having a better run as we head to the long Easter break (Mike Vaughan)

As we head to the long Easter weekend the pound has begun to show some signs of positivity, notably against the Euro and US dollar with rates at a near four year high against the greenback. Prior to this the pound had seen some volatile times against a host of currencies and in particular the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.

In fact earlier this week the pound was trading at its lowest level against the Australian Dollar since November last year having shifted over 7% from the highs of January. This makes a difference of 24k AUD in a little over three months on a £200k money exchange. Looking at other currencies and the market is also proving very volatile against the NZD having shifted over 5% since February and the ZAR with the pound being some 6% down on this year’s high of 18.81.

Since these lows the pound has shifted back towards 1.80 against the AUD following strong UK unemployment figures yesterday which are now below the 7% level sitting at 6.9% and the sentiment coming from the RBA minutes that maybe they are not as comfortable as originally suggested with the current value of the Australian Dollar. For me this pair is now likely to settle around the 1.80 range.

To finish off the working week the UK has little in the way of data releases with initial jobless claims from the US at 13:30 the major data of note. Should you need to get anything locked in before the Easter weekend then there is still time. Registration is free and carries no obligation and can be done on-line all in a matter of minutes. Contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike mgv@currencies.co.uk

Two Important considerations forecasting Pound Sterling Exchange Rates

Good afternoon Readers! The pound is at some truly excellent levels currently, levels that should not be easily dismissed in the hope of much better rates. If you need to buy or sell currency there are a few pointers to note that will make your life easier and your wallet heavier!

Accept that you will not get the ‘top’ or the ‘bottom’ of the market. All too often I am managing one of my client’s currency exposure and they base all their calculations on a recent high. So for example selling Euros to buy pounds at 1.19 or buying Euros with pounds at 1.22. If you do this you are likely to be disappointed. Speak to me about what is a more realistic rate to achieve by calling 01494 787 478 or why not email me jmw@currencies.co.uk

Do your research! There can be major difference between the exchange rates offered by banks and currency brokers like us. But there can also be major differences between the rates offered by different brokers. Here at poundsterlingforecast.com we seek to undercut other brokers and on large volumes the differences can be significant.

GBPEUR is currently 1,2131, GBPUSD is 1.6751, GBPAUD is 1.7921 and GBPCAD is 1.8261

Getting the best exchange rate on a large volume currency transfer (£10,000 +) makes a big difference to the amount you receive. If you are transferring a sum of this size and want to learn the current forecast please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk for the very best rates and latest news on what will move your rate!

Jonathan

 

Good Week So Far For Sterling

As predicted sterling is having a good week so far after better than expected UK Industrial and Manufacturing figures yesterday, however much of the key data this week is still to be released, so there will no doubt be a few twists and turns in the value of the pound.

The Dollar has struggled against the pound in the last few days, but the big driver is likely to be the US Fed Minutes out this evening, so I would expect some serious Dollar volatility in the next 24 hours.  Whilst the pound has remained pretty robust against the Dollar this year, I still feel that ultimately there will be some form of correction once US growth really kicks in to interest rate forecasts, and the pace at which the Fed taper their QE program.  Whether this will be triggered tonight seems unlikely but is a risk, so if you are buying Dollars it may be worth taking a look.  Should you wish to find out more about how to transfer Dollars at better exchange rates than the banks then email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain.

Sterling Euro rates are on the way back up due to good UK data and more signs of wobbles in Europe.  German exports were down this morning, and whilst overall unemployment figures for the EU have dropped recently, the rate has gone up in Italy, and we have Greek figures out on Thursday, so is the divide between Nordic states and the southern continent increasing?  German CPI data could be hugely important on Friday as if this is weak we could see another round of Euro weakness, given inflation in Europe is becoming a concern.  Low figures have already been mentioned by Draghi as problematic, and the longer they remain low, the harder they will likely be to combat, so markets may start pricing in some kind of intervention by the ECB.  Euro sellers beware, whereas this could be a great opportunity for anyone looking to buy Euro with pounds.  If you would like help to get the best rate to sell Euro, then why not try our currency transfer service?  Email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk to find out more.

The Aussie Dollar has continued to push the pound after the signing of a Japanese Australian trade deal the other day, raising growth prospects and opportunities for the economy Down Under.  Given the RBA halt to rate cuts the AUD seems to be going from strength to strength against the pound, USD, and Euro, so it will be interesting to see what the Fed Minutes do here.  We also have Aussie jobs data out overnight so this could be a watershed moment- either reinforcing the Aussie’s position, or causing it to retrace its steps if the data is weak.  Chinese CPI comes out on Friday so expect a turbulent few days for the Aussie Dollar and sellers may be ready to move quickly just in case.  If you are transferring Aussie Dollars into Euro, pounds or UD Dollars, and would like some assistance then feel free to email me, Colm, at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help you get the best exchange rate.

GBP/EUR through 1.21 and GBP/USD close to 1.68 (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has had a strong day against a host of currencies following a strong showing this morning for UK industrial and manufacturing figures. Both were much stronger than forecast setting the tone for the day with the pound rallying to a high of 1.2145 against the Euro and  1.6755 against the US dollar. Sterling was also to find some support following this afternoons NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) latest GDP estimate which has pushed its latest estimate from 0.8% to 0.9% This bodes well for official GDP data scheduled for release later this month.

Looking ahead to the rest of the week and tomorrows FOMC minutes will be the next main area to focus on. This will give insight as to future monetary policy and what the FED may have in store relating to future tapering of QE and interest rates. This can have a big impact on risk appetite and can prove to be a volatile time during and after its release. These will be made publicly available at 19:00 tomorrow.

Looking ahead to Thursday and the ECB monthly report will be the focus as this contains a detailed analysis of the prevailing economic situation and the risks to price stability. It also provides articles on a wide range of topics related to the tasks of the ECB and hence clues can be given as to future policy. With the current deflationary pressures in Europe this will be of particular interest, any clues as to whether they may consider an interest rate cut and this could see further pressure on the Euro.

Following the ECB monthly report at 09:00 will be the Bank of England interest rate decision at 12:00. Rates are expected to remain on hold at 0.5% and I would expect little impact on the pound as a result.

For me the pound is currently representing some good value trading at a one month high against the Euro and a near four year high against the greenback. To take advantage and find out more about the currency service we provide then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

Good Week Ahead Next Week For Sterling

Sterling is slowly climbing again versus the Euro after the ECB comments yesterday, and were reinforced after the US non-farm payroll data this afternoon.  There isn’t much in the way of UK data next week, and we aren’t expecting any surprises from the Bank of England meeting, so much will depend on some of the other major currency releases.

Monday sees Swiss inflation which has been on the low side.  If this trend continues it could be great news for GBP CHF exchange rates, as sterling is already creeping back.

The early hours of Tuesday sees the Bank of Japan rate decision- there has been a lot of talk about the BofJ intervening again so the Yen has been weakening a touch in advance of this so expect volatility here.

Wednesday evening is when the next set of Fed Minutes are published so this is likely to have an impact across the board on exchange rates, as well as sterling Dollar in particular.  If you are buying Dollars it does seem like the greenback is finally fighting back against the pound so be wary on the back of this.

As we go into the early hours of Thursday morning, we have Aussie jobs figures.  The Aussie has been pretty strong against the pound as the RBA have made it clear they are not looking to cut interest rates again in the near future, allowing the Aussie to reverse some of its near collapse early in the year.  If jobs figures are good it could help reinforce new confidence in the Aussie, especially if supported by Chinese PMI data on Friday.

The other big inflation news on Friday will be German CPI- inflation for Europe, or the lack of it, is now becoming a big concern so if the biggest economy in the EU produces a weak figure then expect Euro weakness.

If you do have a currency transfer to make and would like to find out more about our exchange rates and transfer service, please feel free to email me, Colm, at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

Quiet day for the pound with focus on US non-farm payroll figures at 13:30 (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has pushed through 1.21 this morning continuing on from yesterday afternoons post interest rate decision from the ECB. Yesterday there was a outside chance that Draghi may have cut interest rates to counteract the deflationary pressures within the Euro Zone, however he refrained from this but commented action would have to be taken should deflationary pressures continue. He was a little unclear as to what policies would be used with him suggesting ‘extra measures’ would be used. What these would be is a little unclear but he did not rule out printing of money and an interest cut still has to be a real option. This is likely to keep pressure on the Euro and could result in some good buy opportunities for those that are on the ball. Anyone selling may wish to act sooner rather than later.

Today there is little data of note from the UK and Europe today and focus for the pound will be industrial and manufacturing figures on Tuesday morning released at 09:30.

Looking at the US dollar and this afternoons non-farm payroll will be the focus. Data will be released at 13:30 and can cause some significant shifts on the market across the board as it is a clear indication as to how the US economy is performing and can have an impact on global risk appetite. This can cause shifts for the riskier currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR. Should you have a trade to arrange with any of these currencies non-farms could be one to avoid.

Should you have an upcoming fx transfer to arrange and you would like assistance getting the best deal on the market then contact the office on 01494 787478. As a specialist foreign exchange provider we have multiple contracts available to help maximise your exchange or protect yourself against adverse market movement. To discuss the current market and the service we provide then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Markets await GDP data from Europe with GBP/EUR at 1.2050 (Ben Amrany)

The pound has been range bound against many of the majors so far this week with rates hovering around 1.2050 against the Euro, 1.6650 against the USD & 1.80 against the AUD. With very little data out during the early part pf the week for the UK eyes have been firmly set on data from Europe and the US to drive global markets. Having said this the UK did post some fairly poor manufacturing data yesterday and if we see the same trend for the construction sector today the pound could be in for another day of losses.

We are also expecting the GDP figures for the Euro zone out at 10.00 am this morning. We are not expecting any significant change in the number so GBP/EUR may be flat on the day. Tomorrow though the ECB will announce their latest interest rate decision for April. With the rate of inflation still falling within the single currency many analysts are calling for the central bank to cut interest rates to combat the fall in inflation. It has been a similar theme over the last 2-3 months and the ECB have stated in the past that they are not overly worried about the inflation rate and that things will settle down on its own accord over time. These comments in the past have gone to strengthen the Euro and if the same happens tomorrow we could see further EURO strength. Also keep an eye out for the retail figures which will be released before the interest rate decision tomorrow morning. This could bring a window of opportunity between the two releases.

I hope you enjoy our informative posts to help you judge when you should be looking at converting your funds. There is no set rule as to when is the best time but if you do have a requirement to buy or sell the pound then I will be delighted to help you try and judge when to look at your conversion. If you are reading the info here and were planning on using your bank why not let us give you a quote to show you what the savings can be over the high street banks. The savings can be significant as this is a volume driven business and due to the volumes we exchange we can normally beat the banks time and time again.

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

How will the pound perform in April?

Well what a difference a year makes. A year ago sterling was trading at a low of 1.16 and economists were lining up to explain a possible triple dip recession. Most of the UK was also enjoying a nice thick blanket of snow too!  Since then the pound has made a solid recovery and we are predicted one of the hottest summers in years, although just like forecasting currency movements, forecasting weather can be unreliable.

The advantage of forecasting currency however is market knowledge and understanding of what is actually driving exchange rates. 80% of currency transactions and therefore 80% of the reasoning behind currency movements is speculative. That is investors buying and selling foreign exchange to make a profit. Once you understand some of the key things they are looking for, you can begin to understand and forecast what may happen in the future.

This week there are a range of data releases which could affect sterling and also the currency pairs it trades against. One important thing to point out at this stage is interest rates. Interest rates affect currency in a similar way to the way a higher or lower interest rate affects a bank account. So as a central bank (the Bank of England, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve) seek to raise or lower their base interest rate investors (remember most currency movements are speculative) move money around according to where they feel it will offer the best return. To learn what will affect your transaction this month email me jmw@currencies.co.uk. This may be of interest for anyone buying or selling an overseas property, anyone who needs to move a large volume of currency and wants to get the best deal.

The UK is looking at raising interest rates well ahead of other leading economies which is an underlying reason why sterling is stronger against a range of currencies. Having been set at 0.5% for close to 5 years now there is an expectation interest rates will rise in 2015. As we are slowly coming out of this abnormal period of low interest rates (and it will be slow and gradual) we will start to see sterling exchange rates rise.

Getting the best exchange rate involves looking at the timescales that you have and assessing the market in that period. This website has directly assisted 1000′s of clients and is also read by many more who I am sure appreciate our expert opinion and knowledge. If you are considering a currency exchange buying or selling the pound understanding what is likely to happen on the market is the best way to maximise your return. We offer a personal proactive service to maximise your exchange rate through careful monitoring and analysis of the market and your unique position.

As we buy direct into the currency market we would never have real trouble undercutting other sources of currency such as and including currency brokers and banks. Making a comparison on a large volume of currency could potentially save you hundreds if not thousands of pounds. If you would like to learn more please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or please call 01494 787 478

Pound Sterling Forecast – Data out tomorrow (Daniel Wright)

A busy start to the week for economic data brings us quite an interesting Monday for those looking to buy or sell Australian Dollars, Euros, Canadian Dollars or U.S Dollars.

Firstly overnight tonight we have Australian New Home Sales data which may lead to the Australian Dollar moving swiftly before we get onto the trading floor so if you are looking to buy or indeed sell Australian Dollars this may kick start your week if it falls the right way for you. We are currently hovering around what I feel is a pivotal point at 1.80 and with this pairing being extremely volatile day and night it may be prudent to set up a limit order or stop loss to take advantage of any spikes in your favour or to protect you from adverse market movements while you are asleep. Email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk for a more detailed explanation of how these handy and free contract types work.

First thing in the morning we have U.K mortgage approvals data, which with thanks to the help to buy scheme here in the U.K have been fairly healthy lately and could put the Pound in favour right at the start of the day should this continue.

A little later at 9am we have some key European inflation data where we may see a minor drop, I feel this could be Euro negative but it is certainly one to watch.

At lunchtime we have Canadian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures which will show Canadian growth- After seeing a negative figure last time around they will hope that growth in January what this is for has improved otherwise it could give the Canadian Dollar a tricky week and it may weaken again.

Later in the day we have Janet Yellen speaking along with a flurry of data throughout the afternoon. With Yellen’s recent comments being fairly positive and leading to Dollar strength I feel they may be reiterated and the Dollar could have a strong end to the day.

All in all tomorrow is certainly one to watch and could finish off the month with quite a bit of movement, we also have month end flows which could lead to sharp currency movements without any prior warning so make sure you keep one keen eye on the markets.

If you are looking to buy or sell foreign currency for a bank to bank transfer then I can help you both in terms of getting award winning exchanges rates and a high level of customer service. The company I work for specialises in saving clients money over the banks or other brokerages and I would be happy to add you to my list of satisfied clients. I help with transfers ranging from just a thousand Pounds to multi million Pound transactions. Feel free to email me directly if this is of interest to you and I will be happy to get back to you personally. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk - I look forward to hearing from you.

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