Tag Archives: pound

GBPEUR forecast (Dayle Littlejohn)

This week HSBC Holdings Plc and UBS Group AG have indicated the future is not bright for the UK due to the ‘Brexit’ and they both believe GBPEUR exchange rates will reach parity at some stage next year. For people buying euros this should ring alarm bells where as euros sellers should feel their are extra pounds to be made.

Personally I disagree with the forecasts. Italy and Greece (two countries within the European union) have problems of their own. Banks within both countries are struggling with debt and they have both eluded to breaking EU laws to stay afloat. I believe rates will fluctuate in the mid teens and over time will drop to 1.10, however I just feel the UK economy is in a better position than the Eurozone and that’s why we will not see parity.

Tomorrow morning the UK release their latest Mortgage approval numbers. A drop is expected which isn’t a surprise. The public at the moment are acting cautiously due to what they read in the press about the ‘Brexit’. Expect sterling weakness tomorrow morning.

If I have not covered the currency pair you are trading feel free to email me the currency pair you are trading (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk.

My area of expertise is property purchases and sales. Therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale abroad, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and to get an understanding of how we can save you as much money as possible.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Pound rises as expected to begin the week – will buying Euro and Dollar rates continue to improve? (Joshua Privett)

As my article on Sunday mentioned, the Pound was expected to perform well this morning and did not disappoint, with gains seen against all major currencies – in particular for buying Euros and Dollars.

Speculators on Friday afternoon have been pulling the floor from under the Pound as they scramble for a stable currency to store their profits in heading into the weekend. Of course, the Pound has bot been high on their list of stable currencies and as a consequence the severe fall on demand for Sterling sees its value plummet.

However, similarly like clockwork we’re seeing GBP/EUR and GBP/USD levels rise as markets re-open on the following Monday as the vast majority scramble to buy Pounds due to their sudden cheapness. In this period of the week rates have rarely been so predictable.

Moving forward however my article did note some potential red flag events – particularly for Euro buyers.

Firstly, news concerning business confidence figures in the Eurozone are to be released tomorrow morning. As the Eurozone has essentially vacuumed up most of the foreign investment the UK has lost in the run up to Brexit and following the Leave result in the vote, the figures are expected to be very positive for the third consecutive month. It’s hardly surprising given that credit is so cheap and their foreign investment is up 300% on the same time last year.

With a fresh bout of Euro strength expected to come tomorrow at 10am, Euro buyers may be wise to seize some of the gains made today first thing in the morning to avoid what could be a difficult week for the Pound – especially given that underwhelming UK growth figures are expected to be released this Friday.

USD buyers however may be presented with some opportunities in the short-term, as tomorrow afternoon US housing market figures are forecasted to show a contraction – a likely result of their recent rise in interest rates. Expect a cheapening of the Dollar tomorrow afternoon. But again with UK growth figures on Friday we may simply be subjected to a small window of opportunity.

With this in mind I recommend that anyone with an upcoming Euro or Dollar purchase should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk or by filling out the form below to discuss your currency requirement and develop a plan of action to truly maximise your return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and I endeavor to produce a proactive service for my customers to make sure they are kept informed and up-to-date with market movements and expectations, rather than lagging behind.

As our regular readers will now full well, rates of exchange on any particular day can be fixed to allow purchasers to pre-book their currency for a later date, allowing any upcoming pitfalls to be avoided.

Will the UK and the pound enjoy an Olympic boost?

The UK is basking in Olympic glory at present and shrugging off those Brexit blues. For now consumers are spending and the economy has a healthy unemployment picture. This good news is very much welcome and reminds us all of the power of hard work, determination and training. The Olympics will have helped raised the UK’s profile internationally and could help boost tourism particularly with the pound at such low levels. Measuring the true impact of all of this in an economic sense is actually very difficult and in my opinion it would be misplaced to be overly complacent about the future direction for the pound.

An important point to make is that whilst the weak pound is good for exports it is not overall a benefit for the UK since the UK as a net importer buys more from overseas than it sells. That means because we spend more overseas when the currency is weak it is overall a bad thing. That is not to say a weak pound doesn’t present opportunities, many businesses selling overseas will be enjoying the weaker pound and there have been some headline grabbing stories of UK companies being purchased at a discount because of the weak pound.

The key news for me is the business surveys since the Brexit vote, these are the key indicators because ultimately it is business that drives the economy forward. Business is the key barometer of what will happen next. Consumers will not keep spending when the weather turns and they are worried about their job, it will be business’ reaction to the the economy which will shape what happens next. With hiring down and confidence lower I can see the pound coming under further pressure in the coming weeks and month, any clients buying a foreign currency with the pound should not be overly complacent.

If you are buying or selling the pound exchange rates remain volatile and there are various upcoming events to help determine the next leg of direction on the pound. Brexit news is unlikely to develop quickly, indeed we are probably going to need to wait until 2017 to learn just what is happening next. In this time as confidence is sapped, so too sterling should fall.

If you have a transfer to consider making some firm plans in advance is sensible. If you are considering buying or selling the pound then understanding all of your options is key to mitigating the uncertainty. To learn more please fill in the form below or if you prefer a direct contact with me please email jmw@currencies.co.uk

Pound takes late tumble on Friday – how will buying Euro and Dollar rates fare next week? (Joshua Privett)

Like clockwork, particularly since the middle of July, the Pound has taken a heavy hit as we enter the weekend, leaving Euro and Dollar buyers concerned about how markets may open to begin the following week.

Speculators are the principle cause. Traders at high street institutions, who move sums large enough to change the interbank buying level, have to choose a stable currency to store their profits in over the weekend.

What has changed in the post-Brexit vote landscape is that the Pound is very low on the list of currencies which traders are comfortable enough to predominantely hold their capital in. When demand for Sterling drops dramatically during this period so does its buying power, creating greater expense for those with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement.

However, the comforting news for anyone considering buying a foreign currency is that a small recovery is normally seen by the opening of European markets on Monday morning when normal activity resumes.

My previous article for this website on Friday mentionned that UK inflation data will be released on Tuesday, however, these report hearing have now been delayed. Now much of buying Euro and Dollar rates will be governed by events in Europe and the US.

Eurozone data on Tuesday showing business confidence in the manufacturing and service sectors should be seen as a red flag for anyone with a Euro requirement. The Eurozone seems to have attracted much of the investment the UK has lost during this 2016 of uncertainty, which has increased over 320% compared to this time last year. Euro strength is quite obviously expected that day.

The same day we have US housing market figures to released to markets, focused on new home sales, which are expected to show a contraction from the previous month. This will come out at 3pm UK time so Dollar buyers with a short-term requirement should keep this firmly in their dairy.

Now that we are in the final two weeks of the month where economic data is relatively scarce, much of the market will be government not by national performance, but by the inclinations of high street speculators.

As such the next two weeks will see a premium being put on being able to move relatively quickly, as opportunities may only be around for an hour or so at a time, and are difficult to judge when they may emerge.

The onset of September will bring fresh data for August’s performance, and the UK is expected to have a similarly tough time of it as it did at the beginning of this month.

With this in mind I recommend that anyone with an upcoming Euro or Dollar purchase should contact me over the weekend whilst markets are closed on jjp@currencies.co.uk or by filling out the form below to discuss your currency requirement and develop a plan of action to truly maximise your return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and I offer a proactive service to my customers to make sure they are informed with the most up to date information and expectations in order to make an informed decision.

If you are concerned that the beginning of September may bring similar tumbles on Euro or Dollar buying rates as they did in August, you can also fix the rate as it is on the day to avoid any drops before a future, planned transfer.

 

Sterling makes a minor recover but what next? (Dayle Littlejohn)

This week UK economic data has stopped the pound falling against most of the major currencies. Early in the week UK inflation showed an improvement and I put this down to oil prices rising which means the price at the petrol pump has gone up therefore the public are spending more. Later in the week unemployment and retail sales numbers also exceeded expectation which is a surprise as many economists believed the ‘Brexit’ would have weighed down on the figures.

Late Friday afternoon the pound took a nose dive and this has been a common occurrence since the referendum. Speculators do not want to leave their assets in the pound over the weekend due to unexpected events that could occur over the weekend when they are not in the office and markets continue to stay active.

It seems the pound is in a similar position to where it started at the beginning of the week and many client lats Friday asked has the pound levelled out. Personally I still believe there is further falls to come therefore if you are buying foreign currency trading sooner rather than later may be wise.

Looking ahead the major data release this week is UK inflation hearings Tuesday morning. At the hearings Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney, will give his inflation predictions. Now the BoE have cut interest rates and are injecting a substantial amount of quantitative easing into the economy you would expect inflation to rise. Theres an argument to suggest Mr Carney will state he believes inflation will rise but at the same time I can’t see him taken a bullish tone when many believe the UK are close to a recession.

It’s important when purchasing currency to analyse both currencies.Feel free to email me the currency pair you are trading (GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk.

My area of expertise is property purchases and sales. Therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and how we can save you as much money as possible.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you

Speculators undercut the Pound during Friday trading once more (Joshua Privett)

Once more on what seems to be a very regular pattern since the Referendum now, traders at high street institutions are pulling the floor from under the Pound as we enter the weekend.

Buying Euro and Dollar rates suffered suddenly and heavily as a result, with GBP/EUR losing 0.7 cents at the time of writing this post, and GBP/USD  a full cent.

This phenomenon of profit taking is a practice established to protect the capital gains made by speculators during the weekend for the Friday afternoon and Monday morning periods when they are out of the office for the weekend but when markets continue to operate. A dominant currency is chosen to keep their funds in for this period when they have no control over their capital.

This currency has to be stable and be able to hold value. Since the referendum vote, this Pound has been in very low demand during this period. With low demand becomes a loss of value.

Next week will bring some interesting turns on what we have come to expect with UK data releases. UK inflation is the next key data release on Tuesday for the UK economy and has normally been a red flag for anyone considering buying a foreign currency. However, for the first time since the beginning of 2016 UK inflation was in the green this month – a by-product of healthier oil prices and rising importing costs from a weak Pound.

This gives the image to the markets that the UK is still spending highly despite the dampening effect of the leave vote. These inflation report hearings are expected to reflect this improved increase towards the Bank of England’s target for the economy at 2% inflation, compared to 0.6% currently.

As such Euro and Dollar sellers may wish to take the opportunity of this dip in their favour quite soon into Monday morning, and you can contact me over the weekend and I will reply as soon as possible to discuss how to fix the rate for a Sterling purchase based on these current favourable numbers for a future transfer.

Euro and Dollar buyers however, may see some improvements as the week progresses. and I offer a proactive service to make sure my customers are made aware of any potentially favourable movements or change in expectations which you should be made aware of to budget accordingly.

You can contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands. Alternatively, you can fill out the form below.

Will the pound continue to fall?

Sterling has been on the back foot ever since the Referendum and the big question is will this continue? Well in short I think the answer is yes! Quite frankly there is bound to be lots more bad news relating to this scenario, it has not even been two months since the Brexit vote and we are haven’t even begun to scratch the surface of what lies ahead. Markets do not like uncertainty and at present there is plenty of uncertainty as to what will happen to the UK both economically and politically. The economy is on the back foot with slides in growth, employment and business activity. All in all I would not be surprised to see the pound fall further touching fresh lows against all the major currencies. These include the US Dollar, the Euro, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar. If you have a transfer involving the pound and these currencies preparing for further falls in the value of the pound seems the most sensible option.

Last week we heard news Theresa May might not invoke Article 50 until much later than planned, as explained above we are nowhere near knowing any firm details of what Brexit actually is and what it entails. It will lead to many months and years of waiting to understand exactly what is going between the relationship between the UK and its biggest trading partner. As long as this uncertainty continues business and the public will be loathe to make any big financial decisions which will lead to the slowdown in the economy and rising Unemployment.

If you have to buy the pound now is a fantastic time to be considering all of your options and making some plans on the future. The market is likely to offer better deals for buying pounds which anyone with a currency transfer to consider should be taking on board. If you wish to learn more please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. This blog has helped thousands of people to save thousands of pounds through better information and a much better exchange rate than they thought possible. To learn more please email me or fill in the form – you have nothing to lose and lots to gain!

Post-Brexit data could cause further Sterling Decline – Pound Forecast (Daniel Charles Johnson)

GBP Forecast

The Pound has fallen considerably against the majority of currencies since the Brexit vote. Most UK data releases have come in below par, but I fear worse is yet to come. We are yet to see the true impact of the vote to leave the EU as most of the data released so far has been for June. July’s figures are just starting to filter through. I think data will be negative and the pound will slide further. This morning will see Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 09.30. CPI is a measure of inflation and is a key indicator as to the health of an economy. I would expect a slight contraction. Thursday at 09.30 we will see UK retail sales and again I expect a contraction and the pound to weaken as a result. After the UK retail sales data we will see European CPI data and I do expect a drop which could cause the pound to strengthen, although I feel the damage may have already been done by this point. Simply put, If you are selling Sterling it would be wise to move quickly.

If you have a currency trade it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such a volatile  times, If you have a vetran broker by your side he can keep you up to date with any movements in the market to help you make an informed decision when the time comes. If you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help. If you let me know the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free individual trading strategy. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and by doing so I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. You would be looking at around a 3-4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to being of assistance.

 

Will sterling recover? (Dayle Littlejohn)

The major economic event this week that impacted sterling exchange rates was Manufacturing Production numbers released Tuesday morning. As expected the numbers stayed in negative territory at -0.3% for June and was down 0.6% compared to last year. Therefore the pound lost value throughout the week

Economic data this week and the Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates and pump further quantitate easing into the economy justifies why the pound is continuing to fall against most of the major currencies.

Looking ahead I find it difficult to see how the pound is going to recover in the short term as post EU referendum economic data is showing a decline. Furthermore UK Prime Minister Theresa May has indicated she will address Article50 towards the end of the year or early next year and until this occurs uncertainty is surrounding the pound which is causing it to devalue.

This week the UK are set to release their latest inflation numbers at 9.30am on Tuesday. I don’t expect this figure to exceed expectation, however in months to come if the UK continue to pump Q.E into the economy inflation numbers should rise.

My area of expertise is property purchases and sales. Therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and how we can save you as much money as possible. Feel free to email me the currency pair you are trading (GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your trade (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively please fill in the form below and I will be in touch Monday morning.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Sterling exchange rates suffer again this week – Where will the pound head next? (Daniel Wright)

So we have seen yet another poor week for the Pound against all major currencies, seeing Sterling exchange rates drop by over 2% against the Euro, 4% against the Australian Dollar and almost 2% against the U.S Dollar.

Those readers looking to sell foreign currency will have been watching the rate movements with a big smile on their face, the main question now is how long will the rate stick around at these levels??? Will the rate go lower or are we getting close the the Pound hitting its lowest point.

One point to note is that we have seen multi year lows against a number of currencies and at some point I would expect to see the rates bounce back ,the only issue is working out when that may happen.

August had been expected to be a fairly poor month for the Pound as we start to see the first sets of post brexit economic data. On top of this, the Bank of England also decide to throw a triple whammy of fiscal change into the market when announcing an interest rate cut, increase of QE and an addition to their funding for lending project – all last Thursday.

Since we had this announcement sterling has been slowly sinking and I do feel that it may suffer a little more before it does get better.

Next week we have inflation figures, Unemployment data and Retail Sales figures so be prepared for another interesting week ahead.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency exchange or one coming up in the future then I can help you with all aspects mentioned above.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K – You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk or fill in the form below and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the options available to you.