Tag Archives: pound

Pound weakens from BoE minutes, long-term forecast bleak (Joshua Privett)

My previous post from the initial release of the Bank of England interest rate decision and minutes from their latest meeting noted that Sterling weakened against most major currencies at the beginning of the afternoon. This was due to the overwhelming consensus to keep interest rates on hold. What compounded this was the minutes from the meeting which painted a bleak outlook for the UK’s future timeline for raising rates as well.

It wasn’t a negative view of the UK economy as such. Concerns were made about inflation, with core inflation not expected to even hit half of by the BoE’s target rate of 2% by spring 2016, as well as the struggling construction and manufacturing sectors. But employment is still at fantastic levels, with our 5.4% rate of unemployment much better than the historical average of 7.22% since the 70’s, and growth expected to be 2.4% GDP for 2015.

But currency value isn’t simply a reflection of the current state of the economy. It’s about net flows of currency and there seems to be little on the horizon to make Sterling more attractive to purchase.

The minutes from the meeting highlighted that the UK economy is almost at ‘capacity’. This suggests that while positive data will continue to come in, there will be no gains to bolster confidence in the currency in question. For example employment figures may still be high but without the headline news of a fall in the actual unemployment rate itself it is unlikely that Sterling will shine on the markets in the short-term for October.

Furthermore, the continuing concerns about China and global slowdowns were expressed in the report. This has likely delayed the timeline for the UK to raise interest rates further, as this continuation of concern from the last report shows that this will be an ongoing brake for the BoE’s plans to change financial policy.

The only reason Sterling didn’t fall further today, was due to minutes released from the European Central Bank’s latest meeting which showed similar concerns. Which is why the afternoon slide on GBP/EUR halted at 1.356 from highs of 1.363.

With these long-term concerns I believe that the current market presents some excellent opportunities to use Sterling as a buying currency compared to where rates may be by next month. 

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros to buy should contact me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk to receive a competitive quote on any planned transfers, and my advice on how to strategize any imminent or future transfers. Those concerned about where rates are going should know that these levels can be fixed to avoid further movements in your favour. Unfortunately Sterling’s sustained slide over the past few months isn’t showing signs of abating. 01494 787 478

*Breaking News* Bank of England keeps rates on hold (Joshua Privett)

Once again the Bank of England seems to be treading water with absolutely no change in the voting pattern for an interest rate hike, with still 8-1 against the decision, way off the majority necessary for a change in financial policy.

Markets are scrutinizing the minutes closely, and while this is being digested, Sterling is steadily weakening on the markets. I will write a full overview later on this afternoon for a new 4-week prospect for Sterling, but so far from what I am reading those looking to be using Sterling as a purchasing  currency will likely be facing further Sterling weakness moving forward due to apprehensive tones in the BoE meeting minutes.

A cursory observation suggests that anyone with Euros, USD, or AUD to purchase should be looking to move sooner rather than later considering the emerging trends this afternoon.

Feel free to contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception for Joshua for a free quote on your transfer as well as my opinion on your current situation, we can discuss a strategy on how minimize the effects of today. I guarantee to beat any rate offered elsewhere, which is all the more important when markets are moving against you.

Those looking to purchase Sterling can do the same or email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy on how to ride this continued move in your favour to its peak.



Euro the focus for markets today (Joshua Privett)

Today Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, will bring the focus for Euro value back to its own borders. Recently GBP/EUR rates have been dictated by outside forces such as the interest rate timeline in America and news out of China.

His speeches are normally eventful to say the least. As he covers each individual part of the economy during his 90 minutes of speeches and questions, confidence in the Eurozone changes by the minute and so does the resulting value of the Euro.

Markets do try to gauge if the speech will bring strength or weakness to the Euro before the speech even begins.

In the past he has regularly taken a morbid view of the markets, as he believes the weak Euro is central to the Eurozone recovery. It makes their exports more competitive and makes foreign direct investment cheaper to stimulate growth.

However, in recent weeks he has had to defend the stability of the European economy after the scandal at Volkswagen. In a speech last week in New York he talked up how well the financial stimulus package he introduced in January was helping to Eurozone recovery. Such a statement of confidence caused the Euro to strengthen by more than 2 cents against the Pound.

While he could go either way, I am inclined to believe he will be aiming to weaken the Euro this morning. The Euro has had issues with inflation recently, and he will be facing a barrage of questions about whether further financial stimulus will be required.  He doesn’t have much to stand on to give an outright ‘no’, and he may not be inclined to do so.

The Euro is currently at an 8 month high against Sterling which, by all accounts, isn’t where he wants it to be.

Limit orders are a popular option during these speeches. Even if your target rate is achieved for only a few seconds, your currency is automatically bought to make sure you dont miss out on any opportunities presented. For instance, any sudden change to a positive tone by Draghi will likely see any gains against the Euro evapourate.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros to buy in the short term should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception for Joshua to discuss a strategy on how to maximize any returns made available from the speech today. I also offer a rate beating guarantee to make sure you buy as close to the peak as possible. jjp@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR rises following poor end to the week (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR rates are now back into the 1.35’s following a strong end to the week for the Euro on Friday where almost 1.33 was seen on the markets.

The release of much lower than expected employment figures for the US economy was the reason why the Euro was bolstered so severely and so quickly on Friday afternoon. As the USD/EUR is the most traded currency pair in the world, weakness in one generally translates into strength for the other, as capital is pulled out of the Dollar for investment opportunities elsewhere.

The reason for this sharp reduction in Dollar confidence was jobs figures coming in 70,000 lower than expected. Money was pumped into the cheap Euro as many were worried the US would delay their interest rate rise once more.

We have seen this repeated trend over the past few months where money is pumped into the Euro as a cheap and relatively stable currency to hold now that the potential ‘Grexit’ has been averted. Now, instead of poor news from China solely governing this financial flow into the Euro, worries in the US are also contributing.

In a quiet start to the week for economic data, I expect GBP/EUR rates to tick up gently as we have come to expect following these massive spikes in favour of Euro sellers.

However, further US data is expected today and tomorrow which could compound these current trends. New estimates for Chinese growth this year have also been announced at 5.7% rather than 6.4%.

There is still scope for rates on GBP/EUR to fall further from surprisingly poor data, and little potential for sudden rises in favour of Euro buyers. What I would suggests is a LIMIT ORDER for anyone looking to buy Euros. As these rates gently pick up today, if 1.36 becomes achievable I think this would be a great opportunity considering the currently volatile and dangerous marketplace. Limit orders allow you to purchase currency when these rates become available even for a few seconds.

I strongly recommend anyone with Euros to purchase in the coming months should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception for Joshua to discuss a strategy on how to navigate the coming weeks safely and to try and squeeze as much out of this volatile market as possible.  jjp@currencies.co.uk





GBP/EUR lined up for a tough week next week (Joshua Privett)

Anyone looking to purchase Euros received a welcome break overnight. Rates have climbed when a sharp fall was expected, and GBP/EUR is still above the 1.35 mark

Markets were obsessing over the Chinese data to be released overnight which was forecasted to be incredibly poor. Whether this was through a little tampering, very likely due to the lack of transparency in their economy, we’re not entirely sure. But the data presented a much better than expected, causing GBP/EUR to remain relatively stable.

Some may wonder why I’m writing about China when discussing GBP/EUR rates. Since the events of Black Monday in August the value of the Euro is intricately tied to events over in Asia. The Euro continues to be artificially inflated from money being taken out of investments in Asia and global stock markets and placed in designated ‘safe-haven’ currencies.

Whilst the Euro is not a ‘safe-haven’, it is still incredibly cheap, and after avoiding a Grexit investors feel the Eurozone has proven its commitment to stability, which is why this is the currency of choice to purchase during this regular string of poor Chinese data since August. The Euro strengthens through demand and GBP/EUR falls as a result.

So with unexpectedly positive data, GBP/EUR rates are slowly creeping up due to the large amount of Euros being sold. People line up to take advantage of these favorable selling opportunities which didn’t get better overnight.

However, it seems that the end of this week and next will cause some stumbling blocks for Sterling’s value which sellers and buyers should be aware of.

Tomorrow we have the release of construction data for the UK economy. As a regular poor performer, and with the UK recently having revised down its GDP growth for the year form 2.6% down to 2.4%, it’s unlikely this will be able to help Sterling’s value on the markets.

Next week will also have the interest rate decision for the UK economy. The past two months consecutively Sterling has lost value due to the lack of support for a rate hike in the UK in the near future. I would not be surprised for a repeat performance as there has been little change in our situation since August.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros to buy should contact me on 01494 787478 and ask the reception for Joshua to receive tailored advice on your situation as well as a competitive quote on your transfer. Even if your requirements are not for a few months, these currently favorable rates can be pegged to avoid disappointment and exposure to further negative movements. jjp@currencies.co.uk





Carney speech indicates further China woes (Joshua Privett)

The Pound slipped to its lowest level in almost 5 months against the Dollar yesterday, and to a similar position against the Euro, as we waited for Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, to deliver a speech.

In the most recent Bank of England minutes, the word China was mentioned 10 times across the 7 pages of the report. With the current market obsession at further bad news expected from China on Thursday morning, observers were wondering if Carney would give indications on how this would impact the UK’s timeline for raising interest rates.

Instead, he didn’t mention China at all.

Markets seem alarmed that he didn’t address the large menu of current events taking place that observers wanted his opinion on. Instead he focussed on climate change and its potential for global destabilization.

I know this is a big issue, but now is hardly the time.

Markets have reacted apprehensively to his active attempts not to address very important current issues. Not only does it suggest the news which will be coming out tomorrow morning could be dire, but it also indicates that Carney is unwilling to admit just how much sway this news has on the potential for the Bank of England to raise rates in the UK. You can’t raise rates if you expect global demand for your goods and services to be weakening. By not talking about it entirely, he avoided further probing questions around the topic.

Arguably the most important determinant of any major currency’s value since the 2007/8 financial crisis has been when it will be raising interest rates once more. Already Sterling is falling in value due to delays, should this data confirm further slowdowns in China, recent trends show we can expect more of the same. GBP/EUR has already dipped back below 1.35 and if I had Euros to secure over the next few weeks I would be looking to move sooner rather than later to avoid further expense.

Anyone with Euros to buy I strongly recommend contacting me on 01494 787 478 and asking the reception for Joshua to recieve a competitive quote on your transfer and tailored advice on your situation. I guarantee to beat any quotes offered elsewhere, which is more important than ever whilst markets are moving against you. jjp@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR now at 1.345! (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR rates cascaded downwards towards the end of UK trading yesterday, then US markets opened and the same trends we were seeing for the UK market throughout the day were replayed across the Atlantic.

As predicted in my post yesterday morning, we are now in the lower 1.3’s as the trends established by markets on Friday have continued on unabated.

The main determinant for this recent loss of Sterling value has actually been due to developments in the US. Janet Yelen, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of America, gave near guarantees that the US will be raising interest rates before the end of the year.

Since the 2007/2008 financial crisis, arguably the main determinant of any major currency’s value is its timeline to raise interest rates once again. The US is making bold claims of their own, while the UK seems to be shying away. Andy Haldane, one of the 9 members at the Bank of England who vote on our interest rate level each month even mentionned the possibility of future cuts to protect the UK from negative market forces (a poorly performing China).

As such there was amass sell-off on Friday of Sterling into the US Dollar for investors looking for more likely short-term gains. GBP/USD crashed, but the large sell of of the Pound also caused secondary effects for its other currency pairings. The loss of demand for Sterling is why GBP/EUR has fallen so drastically as well.

These trends continued into Monday, but it is likely that this trend in favour of Euro sellers has now halted.

We have been down at these levels last week. Rates instantly shot back up as the temptation to sell Euros when these rates presented themselves became too high, causing markets to correct themselves rapidly.

Markets will now be looking ahead to the release of Eurozone inflation tomorrow, as such, the recent market forces in favour of Euro sellers are no longer the sole focus.

Anyone with Euros to sell I strongly recommend calling me on 01494 787 478 and asking the reception for Joshua. This way I can provide you with advice on the best time throughout the day to convert your Euros, and once we have a strategy in place I can offer a free quote on your transfer (to which we offer a rate-beating guarantee).

Those with Euros to buy may see tempting opportunities in the wake of thes recent lows by the end of the day, email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss how to maximise any moves in your favour to a level you desire or require with a limit order.

Will Sterling recover from the losses last week? (Joshua Privett)

Friday shocked markets with rates undergoing a continued slide in the afternoon for most major Sterling pairings. GBP/EUR almost hit 1.34 once more and GBP/USD is down to 1.52 in a very poor Friday afternoon for Sterling.

A couple of triggers contributed to this slide which benefitted Pound purchasers.

Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank, gave the single currency a welcome boost by stating that further quantitative easing had not be decided on as of yet for the Eurozone. He had previousy spoke of further emergency stimulus as a necessity, so this sudden change of tone reversed much of the recent weakness in the Euro following the Volkswagen scandal last week. The resulting Euro strength was why GBP/EUR fell so sharply in the afternoon.

More generally, the Pound lost value due to the bullish remarks by head of the Federal Reserve Bank of America, Janet Yellen, about the near guarantee of an interest rate hike before Christmas in the US economy.

The timeline for when an economy will raise interest rates has arguably been the most important factor for a currency’s value since the 2007/8 financial crisis. Recently the UK has been more dovish about the prospect, with one of the members of the Bank of England publicly stating that cuts could be required rather than hikes to protect the UK economy against slowing global demand.

With a more positive view on short term hikes for the US over the UK, a large amount of Sterling holders moved into the USD. This caused GBP/USD to fall and the mass sell-off of Sterling caused weakness across the board on Friday.

This week has little data on offer to reverse this trend. In fact, the only data releases of importance today will be housing and private expenditure data for the US economy this afternoon. Two regularly strongperformers for the US economy, should these come in as expected these will cement positive views on Yellen’s comments last week and cause futher capital to flee Sterling and into the Dollar – causing further falls in most GBP currency pairings.

I strongly suggest that anyone with Euros or USD to buy should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception for Joshua for a free quote on your transfer, as well as tailored advice on your situation. Quote this article for commercial rates of exchange on your transfer to help make up for your recent losses on the currency market.

Euro sellers, email me directly on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy on how to ride this recent wave in your favour further.



Sterling drops against all majors in a poor final weekly session for the Pound – Will this last? (Daniel Wright)

The Pound ended the week down against all majors in a week where very little economic data was actually released for the major economies.

In my opinion this is just a slight blip and presents a fantastic window of opportunity for anyone looking to sell Euros, Dollars, Australian Dollars, Canadian Dollars or any other major currency to buy Sterling.

Betting on interest rate hikes for the U.K has indeed been put back and yesterday BOE Governor Mark Carney did warn on a potential house price crash due to the buy to let market, but the economy is still performing pretty well compared to many others and with the rugby world cup currently giving the U.K economy a shot in the arm.

With this in mind I would expect retail sales figures to rise over the coming months and if the U.S do move forward with their rate hike in the next few months then speculation will be rife on the U.K following suit and Sterling may well get a boost from this.

My personal opinion on what to do in a market like this is to make good use of limit orders. A limit order is basically where you can place an order into the market to buy currency at a specific rate of exchange and should that level become achievable, even for a few seconds at any point (24 hours a day, 7 days a week) then your currency is bought out automatically for you.

The beauty of the order is that it can be cancelled or amended at any point as long as they have not been filled and there are no extra costs to use them.

If you feel that we could be of great use to you in terms of helping with an upcoming exchange or you would like more information on a limit order then you are more than welcome to contact me directly.

We welcome all new clients and can not only offer different contract types but we can also get extremely good rates of exchange.

All you need to do to get further information is to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with your personally.

Do you find this site of use? If so then it makes sense to contact us to assist you with your currency exchange!

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we have now spent over 5 years keeping readers fully up to date with market movements by giving timely, up to date and non biased market views and opinions.

All the writers on this site work for a currency brokerage with a turnover of half a billion pounds a year that has won numerous awards both for rates of exchange and customer service so we thought we would make you aware in case you didn’t know.

I have personally had nearly 5000 new clients get in touch with me through the site over the years and for anyone exchanging over £10,000 there has not been one that we have not been able to make a saving for, so if you are in the process of buying a property overseas, emigrating, buying a car or your company carries out large currency exchanges then it would be well worth you contacting me personally even if you feel you are currently getting a good deal through another broker as more often than not you can still do a lot better.

If you are using the bank then it is essential that you get in touch as it is very rare a banks exchange rate is anywhere near what we can offer as a company.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site personally on djw@currencies.co.uk  or fill in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page with a brief description of what you need to do along with a contact number and I will personally call you to discuss your requirements and let you know how I can assist you.


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