Tag Archives: pound
More is lost through indecision than a poor decision!!! Sterling at multi-year high against the Euro and multi year low against the Dollar (Daniel Wright)
Good afternoon and what a crazy week once again on the trading floor!!!
A very quick update from me as we are currently busier than we have been in a number of years!
The Euro has fallen well and truly out of fashion this week with thanks to the QE (Quantitative Easing) program bought in yesterday.
QE is generally seen as a negative for the currency concerned as we have seen previously with the U.K and U.S so this may weigh heavily on the Euro in the coming weeks.
The Dollar managed to briefly break the pivotal 1.50 level today and is now poised just above the 1.50 mark and I would not be surprised to see it potentially break through it mand offer a trading price of 1.50 at the start of next week.
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Following on from an absolutely crazy end to last week the markets are starting to settle down again for Sterling against most major currencies as all eyes now appear to focus on what the European Central Bank will do on Thursday.
Talk of what may happen next with the ECB (European Central Bank) has been constant since the turn of the year and this may be the reason that the Euro has dropped off quite a lot against most major currencies.
The next key piece of economic for anyone either buying or selling the Pound in the coming days is the Bank of England minutes and U.K unemployment data, both due out tomorrow morning at 09:30am. Unemployment is expected to come out at 5.9% so any change to this may lead to volatility for the Pound. The minutes may be of greater interest as they will show what was discussed at the last interest rate decision and also how many members of the Bank of England voted in favour of or against an interest rate hike.
For a long period of time we have seen two members of the bank of England voting in favour of a hike and seven members against, and now that it is hard to see interest rates go up in the U.k this year you do start to wonder if one of the two members that were in favour of a hike now may have changed their mind?!
With an interest rate hike (or the mere speculation of it) generally being positive for the currency concerned if one less member is in favour of one then we may see the Pound drop in value against all major currencies.
If you are looking to carry out a currency transfer in the near future then I would be surprised if I could not get you a better rate of exchange than you are currently being offered along with a smooth and efficient service. If you feel that the site has been of use to you then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) email@example.com directly with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.
The Pound has been fairly range bound against the Euro of late following a reasonably good gain towards the start of the year. The main talking points surrounding the Euro at present appear to be both the potential introduction of QE (Quantitative Easing) and the upcoming elections in Greece.
As regular followers will be aware QE general tends to weaken a currency (like we saw for both Sterling and the Dollar when the U.K and U.S have introduced this previously) however do also be aware that the markets do move on speculation as well as fact so the majority of this movement may have already been priced into the market.
We do appear to keep hitting a glass ceiling not too far above where the market is now and we will need to see some fairly substantial news to push us through this level of resistance so unless we see that I would not be surprised to see us remain within this range (which we are close to the top of) for the next week or two.
You should at least make me aware if you do need to exchange soon as I can then act as your eyes and ears on the markets to try and ensure you do not get caught out if the markets take a turn for the worse. You can email me on firstname.lastname@example.org or call me on 01494 787462 if you do need to carry out a transfer soon.
After an almighty charge from the Dollar towards the end of December/start of January the mid-market price looked like it may well test the 1.50 marker but Sterling managed to hold off the pressure and I currently nestled just above that. The key now is whether the Dollar has a second wind and if it can actually break through a key resistance level.
In times of global uncertainty you general tend to see the Dollar come into favour as a perceived ‘safe haven’ currency and on top of this at present the U.S look almost nailed on to raise interest rates before the U.K.
An interest rate hike generally tends to strengthen a currency and a cut in rates can weaken it and at present the bank of England appear to be constantly pushing back their rate hike expectations which is not doing the Pound any good.
Sterling – Australian Dollar
Following on from Sterling hitting multi year highs the Australian Dollar has also managed to gain back ground moving back against the pound by almost 4% since the start of the year.
We have had comments from RBA Governor Stevens towards the back end of the year that his preference would be to see a weaker Australian Dollar since it is damaging the Australian economy. Personally I would not be surprised to see further comments or some sort of action to push the rate back up however this must be approached with caution as the Australian Dollar can move rapidly and substantially when it is in a particular trend.
With the rate also moving overnight, if you are looking to achieve a particular level of exchange there is the option of a limit order r stop loss contract to ensure that if your rate becomes available overnight it will be taken advantage of, or the stop loss can protect you from adverse market movements if you want no lower than a particular rate of exchange.
Thursday morning will bring unemployment figures from Australia which are currently expected to not be too great which may weaken the Australian Dollar a little.
Sterling – New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand Dollar had also made great progress at the start of the year against the pound however a drop in dairy prices yesterday caused it to weaken away again, seeing it drop by almost 1.5%. Personally I feel the NZD may well try to head back towards 1.90 again unless we see any major news as demand for the currency is still fairly high.
If you have a requirement in the future but you do not yet have the full availability of funds you can book out a forward contract. This is where you can book a rate out for up to a year in advance with just a small deposit, removing the risk of the currency market making your purchase any more expensive in the future.
This is ideal if you are in the process of buying a property overseas as you can know exactly how much the property is going to cost you today and eliminate the risk of the Pound dropping away again and missing out on this great opportunity.
I look forward to speaking with you if you have any questions or queries or you would like to book out a rate of exchange. Please feel free to email me on email@example.com and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.
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The Pound has slightly fallen out of favour once again this week seeing a drop against most major currencies over the past few days.
We have seen fairly poor economic data to start off the year for Sterling however I don’t feel this is enough to have seen such a drop on a trade weighted basis. personally this all appears to be down to the fact that an interest rate hike seems to be getting pushed further and further back by the Bank of England and the current drop in oil prices to the lowest level since May 2009 (under $50) per barrel which is leading to inflation dropping significantly and adding to the problems that are currently faced by the Bank of England.
An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned and a cut in rates usually negative and even the mere speculation of a hike in interest rates can lead to quite a change in the value of a currency.
Many major analysts have been thinking that the Euro is in for a tough few weeks as well and I am of the same opinion, we have the potential of QE (Quantitative Easing) from the European Central Bank and also a pending Greek election which may lead to Greece starting the process of leaving the Eurozone. QE when introduced generally tends to weaken a currency so this could put pressure on the Euro, however much of this may have already been priced into the market.
The Euro is a funny old character as no matter what seems to be thrown at it, it just never seems to lie down so do not expect extreme weakness just yet.
I feel the Dollar charge will more than likely find resistance at the 1.50 level but unless we get some positive news for the U.K and quickly it could potentially break through it.
Regarding Australian Dollars, although there is a minor fightback going on at the moment the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens still keeps on commenting that he would like to see a weaker Australian Dollar so I feel this could head back to the 1.90 level in the near term.
If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out and you would like to get a commercial level of exchange rate for it then we can assist you. We deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from £5000 to multi-million Pound transfers and welcome any new enquiries for business or personal exchanges. We deal with a huge amount of overseas property transactions too so if you would like assistance with any of this and you find this site of use then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on email@example.com with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to call you personally.
2014 was generally a fairly good year for the Pound against most major currencies with the most notable gain of 6.02% against the Euro. This has made buying a €150,000 property in France or Spain over £7500 cheaper which is a huge help towards fees other associated costs, if you have been considering buying a property within the Eurozone over the past few years then with lower house prices and higher rates of exchange 2015 could be the year for you to make that jump.
The main driver behind this movement appears to have been both ever improving economic data for the U.K and the fact that Mario Draghi (Head of the European Central bank) has had to make many fiscal changes most notably interest rate cuts. There has also been talk of a QE program coming into place for the ECB in the coming months so there is still a little potential for the Euro slide to continue.
The largest loss of 2015 for Sterling against major currencies was against the Dollar dropping 6.11% or gaining those looking to sell USD an extra £3,750 per $100,000 exchanged.
The main movements from the Dollar were towards the back end of this year as the U.S became the front runner in the race to raise interest rates next year along with being first to bring a close to their QE program.
The Australian Dollar has been a funny old character over the course of 2014 remaining fairly strong throughout the first half of the year then taking a real bashing in the past couple of months.
There are a couple of reasons behind the recent Australian Dollar weakness with the first being a clear slowdown over in China (China is a key purchaser of raw materials from Australia) and also down to the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) hammering home the fact that they would like a weaker Australian Dollar.
Governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens does appear to change his mind like the wind regarding the strength of the Australian Dollar but it appears now he has finally settled on the fact that the strength of the AUD is damaging the Australian economy and a move to make it a little weaker cannot be ruled out in the coming months.
Sterling has made solid gains against the Canadian Dollar as the Canadian economy has started to drop off a little along with low oil prices and a poor economic outlook. Major analysts currently believe that the ‘loonie’ still has further to fall next year and that the Bank of Canada may lower growth forecasts which may weaken the CAD further in early 2015.
The Swiss Franc has been one of the more stable currencies throughout the year however Sterling has still managed gains of 3.95% during the course of 2015. Usually perceived as a safe haven currency the Swiss Franc has dropped off a little towards the end of the year as we have concerns surrounding what we may see the SNB (Swiss National Bank) do next regarding their artificial pegging of 1.20 against the Euro.
Holding this level is becoming increasingly difficult and a move to introduce negative interest rates in December was the latest bid to weaken the CHF. Personally I see the start of 2015 continuing the range bound trend but do be prepared for a surprise move from the SNB to weaken the CHF further at any point in the near future.
South African Rand
The South African Rand has always been a particularly volatile currency and this year certainly has not been any different. With strikes slowing economic output and the economy seriously floundering I feel that a move towards a buying price of 20 could be a distinct possibility unless major changes are made.
If you have a currency exchange to carry out in 2015 involving any of these currencies then it may be prudent to get in contact with me directly as I can achieve you not only award winning exchange rates but also award winning customer service.
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Happy new year!
Pound Sterling Forecast – Thank you for following our site this year – Make sure there is more money in your pocket in 2015!! (Daniel Wright)
Hello to all of our regular readers and a thank you for following our website throughout the course of 2014, I hope you have found our market information both insightful and useful during the year.
Please do always feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) the owner and main editor of the site with any suggestions you have or changes you would like made and all will be taken into consideration.
A quick note to remind you too that all of the writers on this site actually work for an award winning currency exchange brokerage so can assist you throughout 2015 not only with market information but by getting you better exchange rates than either your bank or your current broker.
Currency brokerages exchange rates can differ quite substantially and we have found time and time again that our regular readers are not getting the most for their money, even with a broker they have been using for a number of years and we feel it is time to change that!
It takes just two minutes to email me (Daniel Wright) personally with an overview of your current and future requirements and I will be more than happy to get in touch to explain how our service works and let you know the quotes we have on offer at that time. I would be extremely surprised if I could not save you money on any transfers ranging from £2500 to multi-million pound transactions so feel free to email me directly on email@example.com and I will get straight in touch.
The markets should remain fairly quiet this week although they are always there to surprise us so do be aware that the smallest piece of economic data can lead to larger movements during these thinner trading times.
I will be posting a 2015 forecast for all major currencies in the coming days so please do keep checking back.
Sterling exchange rate latest – Economic data due out soon that may cause volatility (Daniel Wright)
The Pound has dropped against most major currencies during trading today, however we have seen a positive movement for Sterling against both the Norwegian Krone and Canadian Dollar.
The Pound in general appears to have fallen slightly out of fashion this week but anyone looking to buy either NOK or CAD in the coming days or weeks will have been pleased to see a decision from oil ministers to keep their output target unchanged. With oil prices being key to both of these particular currencies this news weakened both off with the Canadian Dollar losing roughly half a percent and Norwegian Krone losing over 1%.
We have plenty of economic data due out in the coming few days, first and foremost we have consumer confidence figures due out for the U.K which are actually released shortly after midnight. Consumer confidence is a measure of the general feeling of consumers and a positive figure may give the Pound strength yet negative may lead to quite the opposite.
Tomorrow morning is key for those that have the requirement to either buy or sell the Euro as we see inflation figures released at 10:00am. Inflation has been one of the key talking points during European Central Bank interest rate decisions and the press conference shortly after as there had been a fear of deflation which did lead to head of the ECB Mario Draghi taking fiscal action.
Later on in the day we have Canadian growth figures which may either give the Canadian Dollar a chance to recover or kick it whilst it is down. Expectations are for a positive figure but as regular readers will know the market is here to surprise us.
Over the weekend we also have an extremely important vote surrounding Switzerland which may have an effect on the Swiss Franc and the price of gold. A great overview of that can be seen by clicking here.
If you have foreign currency exchange in the coming days, weeks or months then it may be well worth you getting in contact with me directly. You can email me on firstname.lastname@example.org with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to call you personally. I would be extremely surprised if I could not better any exchange rate that you have already been offered.
Happy thanksgiving to our friends over in America – I look forward to speaking to you soon.
Currency Forecast 2015 – Knowing what may happen in the future allows you to free up time and limit your risk…
The pound has been one of the best performers of 2014. Will this be the case for 2015? I have to say for the earlier part of 2015 it looks highly unlikely as a very uncertain General Election should cause GBP weakness. We saw this with the Scottish referendum in September. It is not just the outcome here that is important. Business confidence will be significantly lower as both international and domestic businesses alongside individuals refrain from key decisions owing to the uncertainty. This election will be fought and possibly won or lost on the European question and this will greatly unsettle financial markets which in my opinion have failed to so far price this important event in.
Generally speaking the raising and lowering of interest rates causes a currency to fluctuate. If a central bank actually raise rates (or market observers think they might in the future) the currency should strengthen. If there are thoughts that they will lower rates the currency will weaken.
Applying this to the UK, expectations for most of the summer the bank would raise interest rates caused the pound to spike. Remember currency markets move on rumour and speculation as much as fact. This speculation has now been pushed back (and may be pushed even further back) into 2015, if not 2016. If this is the case it is likely sterling will likely fall further.
If you are expecting a larger currency purchase in the first half of 2015 there might be some good arguments for utilising a forward contract to fix current exchange rates. We were in an almost identical position 2 years ago on GBPEUR approaching Christmas and by March had dropped some ten cents.
Part of our service is keep you updated and examine strategies that will protect you from unexpected swings on the currency market so please email on email@example.com to discuss the options available to you.
Inflation is the rate at which prices rise or fall. Rapidly rising or falling prices can destabilise an economy and managing Inflation has been a key aspect of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) economic policy in 2014.
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB has stated that the new year may see the ECB ramp up their Quantitative Easing (QE) programme. The ECB’s approach to their economic situation has changed in 2014 from reactive to proactive with a range of measures to try and encourage growth being put in place.
QE (sometimes referred to as printing money) is where a central bank injects money into an economy to rejuvenate it and some observers have predicted the future will be a ‘stagflationary’ period in the Eurozone. This is where an economy fails to grow and inflation is a problem. It might be that just like Japan and the US before the ECB needs to continuously be ramping up the QE presses, this could lead to Euro volatility depending how the market digests such news.
Predicting 2015’s movements on Euro rates could prove very difficult but with a large amount of policy having been decided on in 2014, it may be the Euro is more susceptible to movements from other currencies.
As we expected the dollar has recovered but just like with sterling the rise is mainly linked to expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in 2015.
The US economy is finally performing well but is this mainly down to the trillions of dollars we have seen pumped into markets from their QE programme? The end of the Fed’s QE programme may yet unsettle markets, slowdowns in China, the Eurozone and the UK could see the US once again roll out the QE presses.
I would personally not be holding on for them to raise interest rates anytime soon and USDGDP traders might wish to take stock of the 15 cents improvements.
For more information on the forecast and to be kept up to date with the latest news please contact me on firstname.lastname@example.org