Pound Sterling Forecast

The Pound is starting to climb back against the Dollar which suggests that investors are getting a little confident again but how long will this last?

With a major announcement regarding Greek debt imminent we could see absolutle yanything happen this week, however the longer the European crisis is kept away from being major headline news, the more these ‘riskier’ currencies may continue to climbe against the Pound. If you are looking to Buy South African Rand or Australian Dollars then further European problems should bring you the opportunity you have been waiting for, and in my opinion Europe is a ticking timebomb and merely keeps getting shoved under the carpet until it rears its ugly head again and never has been fully dealt with (and probably won’t be for years).

With this in mind, don’t get too greedy as I cannot see AUD rates suddenly flying up by tens of cents so if a spike does occur (depending on the reasons behind it) then be prepared to lock into a rate.

The GBP-USD rate is indeed now creeping up too, in times of trouble globally the Dollar tends to benefit, in calmer tides investors tend to pull funds back out of the Dollar and are more willing to take a risk again.

The best position to be in if you have a pending currency transfer to carry out is to have someone in the know being your eyes and ears on the market. I can assist you either by highlighting opportunites with a phone call or by placing a limit order in the market for you, a limit order is where you decide on a rate you would like to achieve and should it be achievable even for a matter of seconds it is bought out automatically for you, eliminating the risk of you missing out on a spike overnight. A limit order is completely free and can be cancelled or ammended at any point providing the order has not already been filled.

Email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk or set up  a free, no obligation  trading facility by clicking here and using my name (Daniel Wright) as your point of contact.

I shall then give you a call and explain how to proceed.

Halfway to recession?

Yesterday morning saw the release of U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures for the fourth quarter of 2011 released and unfortunately they did not make great reading for the U.K. Gross Domestic Product figuresshow how much an economy grew or contracted in that particular period and the prediction was for the U.K economy to have shrunk by 0.1%

The figure actually came out at -0.2% which doesn’t sound a lot but it does however mean we are indeed closer to a recession than many had first thought.

An economy is officially in a recession when it has two consecutive quarters of negative growth and with the U.K ending the year with one there is every chance now we could start the year with our second and the Pound may drop accordingly.

We will not find out the results for Q1 2012 until April – but if indications are there that this may be negative then Sterling exchange rates may find the next few months very tough – So far in the U.K we have managed to dodge any serious winter conditions, such as the weather we saw this time last year however should it come back and the economy take a hit accordingly then this may be enough to tip the balance.

Of course there are various problems globally that will no doubt hold back many other major currencies, The Euro Zone is also expected to drop back into recession territory as a whole at points this year so there will no doubt be various buying and selling opportunities along the way. Call us today on 0044 1494 725353 should you have an upcoming requirement and let us be that extra pair of eyes and ears on the market for you.

BOE Minutes – How will further QE affect the Pound?

The Bank of England minutes were also released yesterday and the results of which are probably why the Pound did not take a nosedive yesterday. All nine members of the BOE voted in favour of interest rates staying on hold and also, which is key the (QE) stimulus plan to be left on hold for the time being. It looks like the market had slightly priced in further QE in the near term and the fact that not one member was in favour right now should delay further stimulus for another month or two.

When more money is pumped into the economy it generally does weaken the Pound, and regular readers will be aware the mere mention of this does lead to weakness for the Pound, so be aware this will be a hot topic in the coming months.

Federal Reserve minutes and Dollar Exchange rates

Last night the Federal Reserve released their minutes from the first interest rate decision of the year in the U.S. They also tend to comment on economic conditions and how they plan to tackle their economic problems going forward.

In a Statement the Fed state that they expect interest rates to remain extremely low until late 2014 which did weaken the Dollar slightly shortly after the release. Interest rate hikes generally make a currency more attractive to investors and the fact they are planning to keep this low for quite some time may put investors off of putting their money into the USD.

I personally still expect the Dollar to perform well this year due to the problems globally, if you have Dollars to purchase this could be a great opportunity for you as it wouldn’t surprise me to see the GBP-USD rates below 1.50 in the next six weeks.

However, in a press conference later on last night some slightly positive news for Dollar buyers was the fact that Ben Bernanke had stated that the Fed would still be prepared to inject financial stimulus in the near term, which has opened up the door for QE3 in the U.S. This has been expected for some time though so I do not expect this to weigh too heavily on the Dollar.

KEY DATA WATCH: U.S  GDP Data Tomorrow at 13:30pm – This data could lead to a volatile end to the week as it is a key indicator as to how the U.S economy is performing. Expectations are for a reasonable jump in the right direction which could round off the week on a high for the Dollar.

RBNZ Interest Rate decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates on hold last night, giving the NZD a little more strength overnight. NZD rates are (like the AUD) closing in on the lowest we have seen in years and there is no guarantee they will be shooting back up again soon, with interest rates staying high and economic data fairly solid you may have quite a wait on your hands if you are awaiting a large movement back.

Data that may affect the Pound Today

Today is extremely quiet on the data front for the Pound and most majors, however do be aware that at any point we could hear news on the Greek debt talks. If so called ‘positive’ news comes from the talks then going on previous movements we could see some Euro strength pushing the Pound back below 1.19 and back out of arms reach of 1.20.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes….

There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Ok, I called that data may be negative yet once again the markets have surprised us and the Pound has gained this morning!

I know, it is kind of crazy but it is mainly down to the fact that further QE doesn’t look as close as had been expected – This has been an extremely negative subject for the Pound over the past few years and the fact it is a little further away again has been seen as a positive for the Pound, eroding the poor growth worries (for the time being).

That’s my take on it so far…

If you have an upcoming currency transfer to make and want to achieve the very best exchange rates along with an extremely high level of personal service, contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I shall be happy to assist you.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound take a bit of a hit today as it sees three key data releases at once this morning.

Firstly, BOE minutes are released and with growing speculation and calls for further Quantitative Easing in the U.K (generally seen as negative for the Pound) the minutes will show how many members of the BOE voted in favour of (or against) more QE – An increase to the amount of positive vtes compared to last time will signal we are closer to seeing more QE and with the markets moving on rumour as well as fact this could dent the Pound.

On top of this, following numerous growth forecast downgrades last year we have GDP figures for the fourth quarter of last year, they are actually predicted to show a contraction which actually might work in the Pounds favour as if we come out with no growth or positive growth it could counter act the QE as it would be seen as much more positive than expectations, however if we do see negative growth then we are officially half way to a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth) and may drop rapidly today.

Mortgage approvals are the third of the trio today, in all honesty I think these may be overshadowed by the other two releases, all in all my personal opinion if this could be a hard morning for the Pound overall.

If you have an upcoming transfer to make, join the hundreds of people that have contact me directly through this site and found that I have got them a much better price than their current bank or broker…. Feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a contact number and what you are looking to do and I shall be happy to get in touch.

The Dollar has weakened against the pound by a couple of cents whilst the Euro has fought
back slightly from a 16 month low against the pound over a similar
period.

If you are buying Euros or buying Dollars then next Wednesday is
in my view likely to be key.  The Dollar tends to strengthen during times
of uncertainty and the Euro zone crisis has certainly provided a lot of this
whilst at the same time weakening the Euro.

With slightly better received bond auctions in Europe in the last few days, investors are showing signs of
cautious optimism hence the Dollar weakness and Euro strength (albeit only a
minor move compared to recent levels).

During this period, we have seen inflation in the UK coming down, and retail figures up
(good news for the pound) but on the other hand unemployment is rising (very
bad news for the pound).  In my view next Wednesday is going to be key as
we see the release of the Bank of England Minutes and UK Q3 GDP figures in the
morning, and later that evening we have the US Federal Reserve Decision.
If UK growth is very weak or negative then it will likely start alarm bells
ringing for the prospect of a “double dip” recession- if this is the case if
you are buying Euros I would be tempted to jump straight away and cut my losses
within a few cents of a 16 month high against the single currency.
Likewise, should the Minutes point towards further Quantitative Easing in the
UK then again I would expect a reasonable degree of sterling weakness meaning
your pound would buy you less.  If this is the case, then the only thing
likely to avert sterling against the Euro in the short term would be another
flare up of the debt crisis in Europe- this is certainly possible but do
remember the more damage done in Europe, and the longer the crisis runs, then
the greater the likelihood of UK trade with Europe slackening (another possible
cause of recession in the UK!)

On the US side of things Wednesday night may give us a few more clues about whether the
slightly more optimistic figures coming from the US of late is the start of a
wider recovery, or will Bernanke raise the case for more QE in the US as
well?  Any slackening of the Euro crisis is likely to help Dollar buyers,
as is the suggestion of a QE3 in the US.  In my view the USD is likely to
weaken a touch but sterling weakness may counteract any serious gain.

As such Wednesday would seem to be the perfect day to look at stop loss and limit
orders to protect your position but try and maximize any gains- e-mail Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk with a brief
explanation of what you need to trade eg amounts, currencies, buying or selling
(and potentially a contact number), and quote PSF as the subject header.  I would be happy to talk you through what
we can do for you and some reasonable options on how to approach your trade.

After a reasonably quiet day on the markets tomorrow could bring much of the same, however first thing at 09:30am we do have the release of U.K Retail Sales for the month of December.

For those of us unlucky enough to be stuck in the U.K last December you may remember just how dire it was with all the snow, and the high street took a bit hit over what should have been a booming time for many retailers.

This year, I have seen reports that business was booming, this may lead to a reasonable figure in the morning and a short term spike for the Pound.

Of course many analysts will already be expecting a good figure so anything less than good may do quite the opposite but this is certainly one to keep a keen eye on.

If you have an upcoming transfer to make, join the hundreds of people that have contact me directly through this site and found that I have got them a much better price than their current bank or broker…. Feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a contact number and what you are looking to do and I shall be happy to get in touch.

Good day to you on what is statistically meant to be the most miserable and depressing day of the year, I hope you are all holding up well!

The week ahead looks to be a reasonably interesting one yet again, with a flurry of employment and inflation data and Mervyn King speaking too.

Those with an interest in the Australian Dollar may wish to keep a keen eye on the Chinese GDP data out overnight, should this be poor then we could see a small dent back in the AUD, better than expected and we could see new record lows.

Tomorrow Inflation data is out for the U.K followed by a speech from hea of the Bank of England Mervyn King, He is becoming ever nororious for knocking the Pound back when all looks to be heading the right way and a mention of Quantitative Easing plans may well do exactly that.

Wednesday is unemployment information, personally I would be surprised with the number of cuts we have seen and small businesses seemingly disappearing if this data is good, we may have a hairy few days lined up for Sterling if this is the case.

Australian Unemployment and U.S inflation data steps up on Thursday, hearing from contacts over in Australia I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Australian Dollar lose ground and some poor data to come out as apparently all isn’t as rosy as the currency strength suggest over in AUS.

Retail Sales for the U.K round of the week, probably will be reasonable as in the run up the Christmas stores were absolutely rammed and the boxing daty sales certainly didn’t show any sign of a recession from what I  could see.

In short, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound start off the week slowly and then climb back towards the end of the week, however there are plenty of surprises that ould pop up.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in
the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give
clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month
stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the
site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over
their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking
here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote
within minutes….

There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used
someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop
around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk
with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you

Good afternoon all,

As I said in my post on Monday today has indeed been by far the most volatilie of the week and as my fellow www.poundsterlingforecast.com writers have said in the last few days… The days of 1.20 did not last long and rates are right back into the 1.19s.

If you have missed the boat then don’t worry too much, rates could shift back up again, however this is not by any means 100% guaranteed!!

I always say that with currency transactions the greedy amoung us end up losing out the most, however I completely understand it is extremely easy to just keep holding out for that little bit extra and many of my clients do, the trouble is if rates then go down again you find yourself caught in a vicious circle desperate for rates to go back where they had been when you could have locked in… a very dangerous and rocky road to travel down!

A word of advice, if you have an upcoming currency transfer then set yourself a target level, if it hits it then buy it straight away and just don’t watch the market any more, more is lost through indecision rather than a poor decision!!

Both the Bank of England and European Central Bank kept rates on hold today, with a member of the BOE saying he felt we had to get more QE (Quantitative Easing) into place, those that are regular readers will know the mere mention of QE has tended to lead to Sterling losing strength, and just the mere rumour of it still carries great force.

The Euro had got weaker due to speculation of a rate cut too which obviously did not happen today, leading to a fight back for the single currency against both the Dollar and Sterling.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in
the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give
clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month
stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the
site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over
their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking
here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote
within minutes….

There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used
someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop
around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk
with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Hello to you all on this reasonably quiet day on the markets (compared to last week anyway)

The most important releases for those with pending currency transactions are towards the end of the week, however as always with the current global situation all sorts of surprises may pop up in the meantime.

Today saw slightly better than expected data for Europe first thing, which has led to a little bit of rare Euro strength in morning trading, and the rest of the day of going to be reliant on sentiment and speculation as to where the rates will close up.

Overnight we have some house price data for the U.K, I highly doubt this will bring a shock upon opening my eyes in the morning and the rest of the day is a bit of a non event on the data fron too.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Beige book will be the main talking point. The Federal Reserve is essentially the U.S version of our Bank of England monetary policty commitee, and the Beige book is a report of the economic situation in the U.S and may give indication as to how they plan to deal with matters going forward, any spanner thown into the works in this report could lead to a volatilie Dollar rate on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning.

Thursday in my opinion has the capacity to be the most interesting day and potentially the most volatile, we have a host of Manufacturing and Production data out for the U.K at 09:30am closely followed by Europe releasing the same information at 10:00. At 12:00pm the Bank of England will announce their interest rate decision and although no change in rates is expected any mention of QE (Quantitative Easing) could lead to rapid Sterling weakness, I doubt we will here a mention of it but calls for further QE are increasing you it is still a danger. At 12:45pm The Euro Zone announce their rate decision too, there have been mentions of yet another rate cut for Europs bringing interest rates to record lows of below 1%.

A cut in rates generally weakens a currency as it makes it less attractive to investors, likewise a hike in rates usually leads to strength.

Friday is inflation day for the U.K and at 09:30am we see our Producer Price index out, I doubt this will have a huge effect on rates unless much different than predicted.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in
the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give
clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month
stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the
site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over
their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking
here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote
within minutes….

There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used
someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop
around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk
with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Ok, so great news for those that have been waiting to buy Euros and unfortunate news for those in the process of selling overseas, but just why has this all started to happen now?

Here is a great article explaining what the current problems are in Europe and also suggesting that we could see yet another rate cut in the Eurozone fairly soon due to potential deflation…. A rate cut is generally seen as negative for the currency concerned and a hike in rates positive, and with the markets moving on rumour as well as fact the mere mention of cuts again has weakened the Euro accordingly – The Greek situation is merely weeks away from coming to a head again too which certainly won’t be doing the Euro much good one would imagine, it seems March will be crunch time for Greece and personally I don’t see there is much left they can do.

It could still take a long time for Greece to leave the Euro as people need to remember in order to calculate a fair value for the Drachma it will take months of tracking rates and a lot of working out, just like when a country has joined the Euro in the past, so nothing is going to happen too quickly on this matter, and Greece leaving may even be seen as positive for the Euro as it is like cutting the rotton part out of the strawberry… To be honest though the whole strawberry is looking a little manky right now!

If you have a requirement to buy or indeed sell Euros, Dollars Australian Dollars, New Zealand Dollars, Canadian dollars, Thai Baht, South African Rand, Polish Zloty, Swedish Krona or any other major currency then please feel free to contact me directly.

To give you a quick background, I am a currency broker and have been in the industry for years, I set up this site two years ago and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information, and last year had 428 people get in touch with me through the site, of which 401 have already used me and saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with me by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. Theres no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone for years – Just like buying a tv you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.