Tag Archives: pound

Strong GDP Figures surprise markets and boost Sterling (Joshua Privett)

Even though yesterday was a relatively quiet day for data releases, significant weakening for Sterling was recorded. Rounding off a general trend away from the fresh 8 year highs reached last week for GBP/EUR rates at 1.44, poor retail sales figures released in the UK economy caused rates to drop to the low 1.40’s. It was expected that due to the contraction recorded in the retail sector, normally a fantastic performer for the UK economy, that GDP figures will dissapoint markets further on the British economy. As a result, this lack of confidence in the Pound caused rates dip back below the magic 1.40 marker.

However, GDP figures came in higher than expected, surprising everyone, and causing all of the losses for the Pound on Monday to be reversed. Rates suddenly catapulted up to 1.41 this morning. But it is important to note that rates were moving in the opposite direction before this little psychological stunt in the markets. GDP figures also did exceed expectations at the start of the month, they simply did not come in lower than the 0.7% previously predicted.

Without strong data to change the current course of GBP/EUR rates following the agreekment, I fully expect rates to continue journeying downwards. Those looking to purchase Euros should call 01494 787 478 and ask for Joshua to receive a free quote on your transfer. Alternatively, email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss how to maximise the value of your Sterling while the market is moving against you.

Do you enjoy our market information? Just in case you were not aware then we can actually help you with currency exchange too! (Daniel Wright)

It has now been over 5 years that we have been consistently updated this site with market information and non biased forecasts on how we feel the Pound may perform against most major currencies in the future.

We now have over 100,000 unique visitors to the site and I thought it would make sense for me to remind you all that we can indeed assist you with currency exchange too.

All of the writers on this site including myself work for an award winning currency brokerage with a turnover of half a billion pounds worth of currency a year. So far we have had thousands of new clients contact us looking for a better deal than their bank or current broker and we have been only too happy to offer them both a better rate of exchange than than they have been offered elsewhere but also a much more efficient and proactive service.

If you transfer currency on a regular basis or you have a one off larger transaction to carry out either for your business or to buy an overseas property then it is well worth contacting us.

Feel free to fill in the form on the right hand side of this page and one of our friendly and helpful brokers will call you personally to discuss the various options available to you. We deal with transfers ranging from a few thousand pounds to multi million pound deals, we have tens of thousands of regular clients ranging from pensioners that live in France to Premier League footballers so can cater for anyone.

If you would like to speak to me (Daniel Wright) the creator of the site about a specific requirement then feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch.

Bank of England minutes tomorrow and all eyes on GBP/AUD rates (Joshua privett)

Overnight the minutes released by the Reserve Bank of Australia show a mixed view of the current economic forecast for the Australian economy.

While they hinted that increased employment had ‘put a dent’ in the chances for another rate cut, this was balanced out by negative views on the current state of the world economy. As such the Australian Dollar is now lower once the minutes revealed developments in Greece and China would influence future rate decisions.

After such a morbid view, inflation data to be released tomorrow morning must be positive to stop a complete slide on Dollar value.

Today is a quiet day for data releases, so markets are looking to the release of Bank of England minutes and interest rate decisions.

Recently Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, suggested that interest rates may rise at the turn of the year. This means we could see a change in the voting tally for raising rates tomorrow. This could bolster Sterling, yet the alternative (no change from the 0 out of 9 who voted for a rate hike last month) will do the opposite. It will show that Carney’s comments may be more bluster than concrete policy supported by the rest of the board, which could lead to Sterling weakness.

Call into the trading floor on 01494 787 478 and ask for Joshua to discuss how to take advantage of a specific economic event. A number of tools are available to help you buy at the high, or buy before the rates fall back to far to prevent any losses. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Pound Sterling Forecast – The week ahead… Economic data which may affect Dollar, Euro, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Pound Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

We have had a reasonably quiet start to the trading week but I thought I would take a look at what the rest of the week has to offer.

This evening we have the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia)  meeting minutes from the last Australian interest rate decision. Any indication on future interest rate cuts or a change in fiscal policy may lead to Australian Dollar movement overnight. It has been Governor Glenn Stevens that has time and time again suggested he would like a weaker Australian Dollar and he is finally now getting what he has asked for. It would not surprise me to see comments from him that may make the Australian Dollar a little weaker.

The rest of the day tomorrow is fairly quiet all round however we have another late night release for those with an interest in Australian Dollars with a flurry of inflation data for Australian and then Glenn Stevens speaking shortly after.

Wednesday will no doubt be interesting and volatile for Sterling exchange rates with the Bank of England minutes coming out from the last interest rate decision in the U.K. Most important will be how many members of the BOE have voted in favour of an interest rate hike. Recent comments by Governor of the BOE Mark Carney have led to Sterling strength so another nod towards a potential hike may give the Pound a boost.

Shortly after this we have the inflation report and this can also lead to a volatile period for Sterling. This is released at 10:30am and I would expect a jumpy market during this period.

An interest rate decision is then the main focus later on which comes from New Zealand and then Thursday only really has Canadian retail sales figures to offer in the latter part of the afternoon.

Finally on Friday we have some manufacturing data for Europe throughout the course of early morning trading  rounded off with New home sales over in the states in the afternoon.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out either now or in the future then it is well worth getting in touch with me personally. I can help you not only get a great rate of exchange but also with the timing of your transaction. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally to speak to you.

GBP/EUR Best Rates – 1.41 briefly seen on the markets (Joshua Privett)

Today was an extraordinary day on the markets. Sterling gained against all major currencies and did the opposite of what most analysts, myself included, had predicted would occur when an ‘aGreekment’ was reached.

But the logic was sound. Sterling had benefitted from a huge influx of currency out of the Eurozone when Greek talks were deteriorating. We fully expected, and large hedge funds even stated, that investors would flock back to the Eurozone once some form long-term stability was established for Greece.

Thus, it seems that markets are not convinced that any form of a deal is reached, and they have a point. In order to recieve his €83Bn bailout, Alexis Tsipras had to go against everything the Greek people had voted against in their referendum. This bailout has until Wednesday to be ratified by the Greek Government, and with the conditions imposed, this is unlikely to be a smooth process.

This is likely why the rates have cannoned up, investors are waiting to see what happens before Wednesday. This panic has created excellent buying opportunities for the Euro and I believe they should be taken. Greece is facing a crisis of liquidity, and this puts pressure on the Parliament to accept the terms offered, and Tsipras would not have accepted terms which he knew his people could not stomach. These rates are essentially gift wrapped. We already saw that positive talks moved rates down to 1.37, after Wednesday, a solid agreement will likely push them even further down.

Commodity based currencies were hit even further today by falling oil prices – for more information click here. to see even better buying opportunities than GBP/EUR

Thus anyone looking to buy Euros should email me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk for a free quote on your transfer to achieve the best rates while they are available. These rates can also be pegged at no additional cost if your requirements for Euros are not until later in the year, so that you do not have to miss out.

Rates still remain steady awaiting the next move regarding Greece (Daniel Wright)

As another day passes without an agreement regarding Greece the GBP/EUR rate of exchange has remained rather steady apart from a quick Sunday night spike once again as covered in the previous article.

This is still having an impact on all major currencies and continues to be the main talking point on the currency markets at present. Any news to do with Greece is having an effect on global attitude to risk which can impact the perceived safer havens (USD,CHF) and also the riskier currencies (AUD,NZD,ZAR).

When it looks like there may be an agreement in place you would expect the safer havens to weaken off, making them a little cheaper to purchase and the riskier currencies to get stronger as confidence and certainty creeps back into the global market.

Should this really blow up and no agreement be made then I would not be surprised to see Sterling head back down towards 1.50 against the Dollar and to potentially break through the 2.10 mark against the Australian Dollar for the first time in many years.

I really do hope for the Greek people that something is resolved soon as for the general public over there this is far from ideal and I really do feel for them.

The next 24-48 hours will be vital not only for Greece but for where currency rates will head next I have no doubt about that. I personally would not be surprised to see something cobbled together to patch over the problems which may give the Euro a little certainty and strength for the time being and that we will be talking about this situation for many months to come!

If you have a currency exchange to carry out either imminently or in the coming weeks or months then it may be prudent to contact me directly as I will be able to help you both with getting a fantastic rate of exchange and with timing the transfer as well.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in contact with you to discuss your currency needs.

Sterling Exchange Rates Remain Strong (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been another volatile week for Sterling, with big swings against most of the major currencies. We saw GBP/EUR rates spike back to an 8 year high before falling away during the week and with global uncertainty due to the Greek crisis, we have seen investors sell off their EUR positions. This has helped boost the USD, which is always considered a safe haven currency in times of global unrest and in turn this has boosted the Greenbacks position against Sterling over the past couple of days.

The biggest swing we have seen however has come today on GBP/AUD rates, which has seen the Pound gain over 2 cents and moved the pair back out to a fresh 6 year high. Australian Retail Sales figures were released overnight and came out worse than expected at 0.3%. This coupled with positive UK data this week has helped boost Sterling’s value and I would be very tempted to take advantage of the current spike and not gamble on such a volatile market.

GBP/EUR rates have dipped from the high of last weekend but still look very attractive for EUR buyers. With so much uncertainty surrounding Greece it is very difficult to predict exactly how the situation will evolve. Personally I feel a deal will be reached next week but with a referendum scheduled for Sunday, when the Greek public will decide whether or not to accept the proposals being put forward by Greece’s creditors, we may find the landscape and market conditions have changed considerably by then.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

 

Euro gains back a little strength as Greece may now accept terms – GBP/CAD spikes following poor growth figures (Daniel Wright)

We have seen a little Euro strength this morning as the Greek situation took one step closer to being resolved…. Well for the time being anyway!

Personally I feel all we are going to see is some papering over of cracks at best and this whole situation will no doubt be back in the headlines before we know it.

The only thing that is certain over the next week or two is that there will be some great buying opportunities and some fantastic selling opportunities for the Euro so if you are in the process of buying or selling a property overseas then it may be prudent to get in touch with us here. We have a number of free contract types than can help you to secure a rate should there be a spike or protect yourself again a drop in exchange rates should it happen suddenly. You can email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to explain how these work.

We have seen a great spike for those looking to buy the Canadian Dollar of late thanks to growth figures in Canada coming out a little worse than expectations and indeed dropping into negative territory at -0.1%.

Rates for Sterling against the Canadian Dollar are creeping towards the 2 mark and I feel this may now be a distinct possibility in the coming weeks.

if you are looking to exchange any major currency then I can assist you both in terms of assistance with timing and getting you a great rate when you do book it out. As above just feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) by emailing on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirements and a contact number and I shall be more than happy to contact you personally to explain how I can help you.

 

U.K records first negative inflation since records began in 1996 – European Central Bank comments lead to Euro weakness (Daniel Wright)

The morning started off with Euro weakness across the board and a minor Dollar fight back as we heard comments from members of the European Central Bank that they would be prepared to go even further if required to ensure that they achieve inflation of 2% and it looks like these comments broadly surround the QE program.

Expectations are that QE for the Eurozone will continue through September 2016 and bearing in mind that both the U.K and U.S are much deeper into their QE projects this may hold back the Euros from seeing too much strength in the near term.

Greece of course will still be an extremely important issue and any further news surrounding this issue will no doubt also have quite an impact.

Regarding the U.K and Sterling, inflation data out this morning has led to the Pound dropping against most majors other than the Euro. Inflation came out negative for the first time since records were taken in 1996 however the Bank of England had predicted that we would see this soon so it is not a great surprise.

Many are blaming Easter for these year on year figures as Easter had been fairly early this year. Usually over Easter travel costs are much higher and due to it being earlier this rise in costs fell outside the accounting period so we may see a spike back in inflation figures next month.

If you have an upcoming currency transfer to carry out involving either buying or selling the Pound for any major currency and you would like my personal assistance then feel free to contact me directly. I deal with thousands of private and corporate clients exchanging money for business needs and property purchases/sales and I would be more than happy to help you too. You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will get in touch.

The election and how it may impact on the Pound – Pound Sterling Forecast election special

The Election and the impact it may have on the Pound

Well if the polls are anything to go by we are in for a real roller coaster ride in the next 24 hours as the U.K head into voting stations in what may be the closest election in decades.

With political certainty being one of the key factors that have an effect on the value of a currency, Sterling may struggle until we have cemented not only who will be running the U.K but also how they plan to approach their reign.

One of the best ways of putting it is that if you were due to invest in a business (i.e the U.K/Pound) then it is highly unlikely you would take the plunge until you actually knew who would be running that business and how they planned to run it. Until we have some clear results from this election then we are in exactly that position, therefore demand in the Pound slows and Sterling’s value could more than likely drop.

I thought it may be prudent to outline the possibilities that may arise in the coming days, weeks or even months and how they could impact on the value of the Pound.

First and foremost, it does look like there is now a slim chance of any party achieving a majority. A majority would be where they can set up Government solely without the need for seeking out other parties to join together with to form what is known as a coalition.

In the unlikely event that we do see a majority for the Conservatives then I would not be surprised to see Sterling gain a lot of strength as it would show certainty and also with the economy currently performing fairly well, should be taken kindly by the markets. A Labour majority may not be so positive for Sterling initially as we may see quite a lot of change on the horizon for the U.K therefore investors may hold back to wait and see what changes may be made.

Hung Parliament

It is fairly likely that once results are announced we may see what is known as a hung Parliament. This is basically where no single political party wins a majority in the House of Commons and this is where things can really start to get interesting.

Essentially, there are usually 12 days allowed for incumbent Government (current holder of political office) to attempt to form a coalition. This may be trickier than before as the current party involved in the coalition (Lib Dems) has seemingly lost a large amount of support after not keeping to key points of their manifesto during 2010.

During this period I expect large volatility for the Pound and a limit order/stop loss contract may be a prudent approach. This is where you can set a particular level you wish to achieve or a lower limit you do not want to buy below and either may be secured automatically for you should the market price become available. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk or call our trading floor line on 01494 787478 for more information.

After 12 days (although it did take 13 last time around) if the Conservatives have failed to put together a coalition then the largest opposition party may be asked to put together a coalition. This has every potential to end up being the Labour party attempting to put something together with the SNP (Scottish National Party).

Should this be the case then I feel Sterling may really suffer as the SNP have already commented that they would like to have another referendum on Scottish independence and I would be highly surprised that they would agree to anything without the potential of this taking place. When we had the vote for Scottish independence last year and the chance of a yes vote heightened, Sterling dropped off by over 4% in a few days so with the potential of this looming, even sometime in the future the Pound will more than likely suffer.

In the event that no party can put together a coalition then we may have a situation of ‘no overall control’ which was seen a number of times in the twentieth century. This would make life hard for the Pound and would lead to a second election later in the year and again may lead to a tricky period for the U.K and indeed the Pound for a number of months.

All in all if you are looking to buy or sell foreign currency in the coming days, weeks or months then it is extremely important that you make your account manager here at currencies.co.uk fully aware. If you are working to a particular budget then our contract options may be a sensible approach, you can book an exchange rate for anything up to a year in advance for just a small deposit, helping you to budget well in advance for the year ahead. If you would like any assistance or one of our friendly traders to explain the various options available to you then either email me on djw@currencies.co.uk   or call us directly on 01494 787 478.

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