Tag Archives: pound

How well do you really understand what is driving your exchange rate?

The pound looks likely to rise against most of the major currencies longer term as the UK appears likely to raise interest rates in the future. This is important because the raising and lowering of interest rates by a central bank greatly affects the strength or weakness of a currency. Understanding this fact – that the raising and lowering of interest rates greatly affects the strength and weakness of a currency – is key to predicting where exchange rates are headed.

One of the major reasons for GBP strength in 2014 is high expectations the UK would raise interest rates in 2014. This expectation has been pushed well back into 2015, if not 2016 and anyone holding on for this to happen to make an exchange had better have a long time to do so! I remember in 2012 we were almost in an identical position , with expectations high the UK would raise interest rates in the coming year or two. We then had the Eurozone crisis deteriorate (remember Greece on the brink of leaving the Eurozone) and the following Spring the UK entered a triple dip recession and the pound crashed from 1.24 to 1.14 in about 6 weeks!

I do not think we are likely to see such a sharp move but with the General Election and increased political uncertainty on the cards for 2015 a tough patch for the pound appears highly likely. Even though May 2015 seems many months away it is not actually that far in terms of exchange rates. Considering you have seen anywhere from 5-15 cents movement per year for the last few years on GBPEUR, making some plans now for currency in the new year is clearly sensible. 

We offer a range of contract options to fix exchange rates at currency levels and also to automatically purchase when a desired rate is hit (stop / loss and limit order). Speaking with or emailing us with a brief outline of your situation carries no obligation. We are currency specialists who are here to assist in the safe planning and execution of your transfers.

The real risk on exchange rates is doing nothing and leaving it all to chance so to learn more please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk,

I look forward to hearing from you.

Thank you,

Jonathan

Tomorrow’s Non Farm Payroll could be more important than the rate decisions today!

US ~Non Farm Payroll data is due tomorrow which could be a big market mover as it is the first one since the US stopped their QE programme. Today’s meeting with Mario Draghi might also be very interesting and should be a market mover, the least interesting thing is probably the UK’s Bank of England decision which is not expected to yield anything new.

How can you make a decision on when is the right time to enter the market if you don’t know what is happening? The idea of this blog is to provide information on just where rates are headed and make sure you get the best price when you do decide to enter the market. If you have a transaction that you need to consider why not get in touch with our specialist team to find out more about moving money internationally at the very best rates.

Sterling has done really well this year as the UK economy improves and investors position themselves for the UK to raise interest rates. Next year we would expect the UK elections to move the market, the increased uncertainty surrounding the political situation in the UK is bound to cause ripples on exchange rates.

When considering making a currency exchange understanding what is driving the exchange rate is vital to getting the most from the market.  Please contact  Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk for a quick overview of your position and to learn more about getting the best rates.

Sterling exchange rate forecast – The coming days and what may happen to the Pound (Daniel Wright)

Sterling has had a mixed week against most major currencies, slipping slightly against the Euro and the Dollar yet making minor gains against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar.

As far as U.K economic data goes we had manufacturing data for the U.K which was fairly positive however construction and services data has been reasonably negative so the U.K has not had the best start to the month as far as economic data goes.

We still have some extremely key releases to come out this week with the main focus for anyone looking to buy or sell the Euro being the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference. For the past few months we have seen the Euro generally weaken during ECB rate decisions and the press conference thereafter due to the continued concerns of deflation in the Eurozone and head of the ECB Mario Draghi taking actions to try and counter act this. Recent European inflation figures actually suggested that what is being done at present is currently working as inflation has risen back up a little.

This may well be commented on in the ECB press conference tomorrow so if you have Euros to buy then this has the potential to give the Euro strength – The press conference is due at 13:30pm tomorrow and usually goes on for around an hour with the rates being exceedingly volatile during this period as investors hang off of Mario Draghi’s every word.

Overnight tonight we have the unemployment rate due out in Australia which could lead to sharp movements for the Australian Dollar outside of our trading hours tonight. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to remain at 6.1% so any change to this may bring quite a lot of market movement. With employment figures for New Zealand earlier in the week moving the New Zealand Dollar by two cents overnight it is certainly a release to be aware of.

Overnight on Thursday we also have the RBA Monetary Policy Statement in Australia which will inform us of any future economic policy to be introduced by Australia and any comments in it may lead to another volatile night for the Australian Dollar. Over the past few months Governor Glenn Stevens seems to have changed his mind like the wind on how happy he is about the strength of the Australian Dollar, the main view though being that he feels it is slightly overvalued so more comments like this may weaken the AUD and p[resent a buying opportunity.

Friday is a busy day for all major currencies. First and foremost we have the Trade Balance figures out for the U.K which will show the balance between imports and exports for the U.K economy for September a positive value shows a trade surplus and would be seen as positive for the Pound.

Later in the day we have Non-Farm payroll data from America and this can have an effect on all major currencies. It is a measure of the number of people in Non-Agricultural employment in America, Non Agricultural due to the fact that this can be seasonal. The reason it has an effect on all major currencies is because it can alter global attitude to risk and the figures predicted can quite often be quite a way out, so be sure to have a keen eye on exchange rate movements at 13:30pm on Friday.

Finally over in Canada we have their unemployment figures with expectations of a small rise from 6.8% to 6.9% which may be a negative for the Canadian Dollar.

If you are looking to carry out a currency transfer in the near future it may be prudent to let me know sooner rather than later so that I can keep you fully up to date with market movements. We also have a range of contract types available inclusive of forward contracts, stop loss and limit orders email me on djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like more information on how these orders work.

Should you find my updates helpful and interesting yet you have not yet registered an account with me then opening an account is completely free, carries no obligation to trade and puts you in the position to book out a rate as and when you wish. If you are currently using another broker or your bank then it is well worth getting in contact  with me for a comparison as I would be highly surprised if I cannot save you money over your current currency option. All you need to do is email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief explanation and a contact number and i will be more than happy to contact you personally.

 

 

 

What to look out for on the pound in the coming months…

When considering making a currency exchange an understanding of what is driving the exchange rate is vital to getting the most from the market. How can you make a decision on when is the right time to enter the market if you don’t know what is happening? The idea of this blog is to provide information on just where rates are headed and make sure you get the best price when you do decide to enter the market.

Sterling has done really well this year as the UK economy improves and investors position themselves for the UK to raise interest rates. Next year we would expect the UK elections to move the market, the increased uncertainty surrounding the political situation in the UK is bound to cause ripples on exchange rates. If you have a transaction that you need to consider why not get in touch with our specialist team to find out more about moving money internationally at the very best rates.

Please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk for a quick overview of your position

How will UKIP affect sterling?

UKIP continue to make gains in polls and are certainly likely to be a thorn in the side of the more established parties, indeed they already have been. But is this more a reflection of the tough times ahead for the UK (and the pound) or a flash in the pan protest vote?

UKIP have the power to severely undermine confidence in sterling. there is tremendous uncertainty posed by a party with no solid economic idea from what I have seen. Aside from promising to withdraw from Europe and playing on peoples immigration fears it is difficult to find concrete policy. Let it be known that any withdrawal from Europe would have wide reaching consequences for the UK economy and hence the pound. Whilst it might be welcomed we examine the relationship with Europe the economic benefits of being part of Europe should not be underestimated.

We shall learn much more about the true effects of UKIP on the pound in the next few months as we have bi-election and then the General Election in May 2015. The effect on sterling from increased political uncertainty will undoubtedly be negative and anyone hoping to see sterling keep climbing in 2014 and beyond might be disappointed.

To keep up to date with the pound and how important events affect your exchange please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Retail sales tomorrow morning and growth figures on Friday to be key for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

Tomorrow morning we see the release of Retail Sales figures for the U.K followed by GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures on Friday morning.

Retail Sales are expected to have dropped off a little and growth figures are due to show economic growth for the third quarter of 2014 to be at 0.7%.

Sterling has had a fairly flat week as far as currency movements go so these next few days may give us a grandstand finish.

If you are looking to exchange foreign currency in the next few days or indeed weeks then feel free to get in touch with me directly, even if you want a quick comparison to make sure you are getting the most for your money.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Will it be a busy and positive end to the week for the pound?

Early indications suggest yes! The pound has clearly been the favourite currency of 2014 as the UK leaves its counterparts behind with solid economic growth and economic policies all pointing towards raising interest rates. For me this trend is not finished and whilst the pound has clearly come slightly unstuck this October (the month economic realities often hit home, remember the Wall St crash?) longer term sterling really should remain the investors choice.

Risks remain from the Eurozone slowdown (40% of the UK’s overseas trade is with the Eurozone) and a general deterioration in the global economic outlook but on balance the UK is benefiting from improved domestic demand and whilst it may be that sterling does dip a little more as interest rate expectations are pushed back, I still believe the UK will raise interest rates ahead of the United States. I therefore view any dip in sterling as a buying opportunity well worth capitalising on.

Tomorrow’s Retail figures will be a big indicator as to whether or not the this domestic demand is sustainable and Friday’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will again be very indicative of just exactly how the UK is faring, I would personally expect sterling to fall tomorrow but rise Friday. If you are considering an upcoming exchange why not speak with me to learn a little more about the forecast?

What exactly should I do? I cannot unfortunately tell you exactly what to do or when to buy the currency, no one can! I can however keep an eye on the rates for you and highlight improvements and upcoming events which will affect the exchange. The uncertainty of the foreign exchange market means making firm decisions is impossible and it is only by speaking with a true specialist you can fully understand what may happen down the line.

For more information please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Pound Sterling Forecast – The Week ahead for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

There are plenty of points of interest for those following Sterling exchange rates this week so below is a summary of what lies ahead and how it may affect your rate of exchange this week. Please do remember that if you find our information useful then we do also carry out currency exchange for clients looking to buy or sell foreign property, businesses that have the need for foreign exchange and all sorts of different reasons so it is well worth getting in touch with me (Daniel Wright) by email on djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like access to award winning exchange rates and customer service.

Tomorrow is reasonably quiet for most major currencies similar to today, however for those following the Australian Dollar you should be aware that deputy Governor of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) speaking this morning at 09:55am which, depending on what he says may lead to a little market volatility for AUD exchange rates throughout the course of the morning. Overnight we saw a flurry of economic data from Chinas including growth figures which came out than expected and have indeed give the AUD a little already today.

Wednesday is when the data really starts to hot up and we have data that may affect GBP, USD, CAD, AUD and NZD rates of exchange so if you are looking to trade any of these currencies in the near future you need to make us aware so we can get in touch if there is a large movement. Feel free to email me Daniel Wright directly on djw@currencies.co.uk or to call us on 01494 787 478 so that we can act as your eyes and ears on the market and highlight any buying opportunities.

U.K starts the ball rolling at 09:30am with the Bank of England minutes from their last interest rate decision. The minutes will basically let us know how the 9 members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) voted at the latest decision in terms of interest rate change. Any change in favour the number of members voting in favour of an interest rate hike could give the Pound a boost and if we have fewer members opting for rates to rise, Sterling may drop substantially.

At 13:30pm we have inflation data from the States and expectations are for a slight drop from 1.7% to 1.6%. We may see a little Dollar weakness if inflation levels are any lower than this level, just like we saw a week ago for Sterling when rates plummeted following a much lower than expected CPI level.

Canada quite possibly has the most to offer in terms of economic data on Wednesday with Retail Sales, Interest rate decision, rate statement and a press conference all out between 13:30pm and 16:15pm. Retail Sales are expected to have improved slightly which may push the Canadian Dollar back down toward the 1.80 level but do be cautious that with the rate statement and during the press conference a dip may be temporary as any negative comments could knock the Canadian Dollar straight back down again.

The Antipodean currencies then take center stage with Governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens speaking at 22:00pm and inflation data coming out for New Zealand at 22:45pm. Both of these data releases are out overnight any many regular readers will remember it was only a short period of time ago that the RBA Governor commented that he felt the AUD was overvalued which led to sharp movements for the Australian Dollar overnight. If you are looking to buy or sell AUD or NZD then it may be prudent to look at one of our various contract types including a limit order or stop loss, contact me to find out how these options work.

Sterling then takes the reigns for the rest of the week with Retail Sales figures due on Thursday morning and GDP (Gross Domestic product) data due on Friday morning. Expectations are for Retail Sales to have dropped off a little and for our growth figures also to have retracted ever so slightly which may give the pound a tough end to the week.

If you would like to make the very most of your money then it is extremely important you have a proactive broker on your side with access to great rates of exchange. Feel free to contact me direct by email djw@currencies.co.uk or calling 01494 787 478 and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.

 

 

GBPEUR levels continue to fall steeply – when to trade?

GBPEUR levels have been very volatile over the last few weeks. In fact we have seen them have their most volatile period since the crash in 2008 this month with levels swinging over a cent a day and an overall movement between the high and the low of over 4 cents. This has made a huge difference to the costs of purchased anything from the single currency. There has been a number of topics and stories released which has started this negative trend. This included interest rates change being pushed back, IMF concerns about the UK’s growth next year, the highlight of risk being linked with Euro and Euros general demise and uncertainty. This created the fall initially but thereafter so many traders got involved in the swing it changed sentiment in the market that pushed levels down this week too. It seems there is a growing concern about the future globally as stock markets have fallen significantly, it was on Wednesday when we saw the largest day drop in European stock of over 6 years.

GBPEUR levels have dropped nearly every day this week with the only exception being yesterday when inflation date from Europe gave only some light relief for anyone buying the single currency.

Moving forward I would remain wary and I do think there is a big chance this negative trend will continue with levels ending the month lower than where we are today.  Economic data for the UK, reporting on September, continues to be negative due to the uncertainty last month with the Scottish vote. Plus with concerns building about the future for the single currency, Germany falling into a recession due to sanctions with Russia and Germany stopping QE, I would be concerned if I was a GBPEUR buyer.

If I was a GBPEUR trader this month I would definitely be putting myself into a position to move very quickly and I would probably look at limiting my exposure.  If I was a EURGBP trader I would also want to be ready to go and to take advantage of the movement in your direction.

If you would like more information about the potential timing of your transfer, and the stories to watch out for please feel free to contact myself directly. My email address here is hse@currencies.co.uk and I will get back to you personally, my name is Steve Eakins.

Alternatively if you would like to utilise the tools we have access to including RATE ALERTS and SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS please feel free to get in contact in the same way.

Have a good weekend.

Steve

U.K inflation data weakens Sterling in morning trading (Daniel Wright)

Inflation data released this morning for the U.K has led to a drop in the value of the Pound as figures came out much lower than expectations.

The worry was that inflation figures may have dropped off a little however the actual figure released was a lot lower than had been predicted.

Lower inflation will lead to the potential of an interest rate hike being put back a little further and an interest rate hike generally is seen as positive for the currency concerned and with the markets moving on speculation as well as firm economic releases.

We have also seen the Euro weaken off lately and the reason for this is extremely low inflation figures leading to the risk of deflation, one of the ways they are looking at to combat this is by introducing QE (Quantitative Easing) which as many regular readers will know generally is seen as very negative for the currency concerned as it is essentially printing more money and injecting it into the economy.

We still have quite a busy week ahead with a few interesting points of note including unemployment figures for the U.K tomorrow (predicted to have improved to 6.1%) and U.S Retail sales figures tomorrow afternoon. For those with an interest in the Euro you should be aware of President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi speaking at 8:00am tomorrow morning which could move Euro exchange rates in advance of trading lines opening.

if you have a currency transfer to carry out in the coming  days, weeks or indeed months then it may be prudent to contact me directly as the company I work for has not only won awards for our exchange rates but also our customer service. You can contact me directly on  Djw@currencies.co.uk please leave a contact number and a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be happy to get in touch.

This site is protected by Comment SPAM Wiper.