Pound Sterling Forecast

Today sees the release of the European Central Bank interest rate decision – New head of the ECB (not jealous of his new job) Mario Draghi has quite a decision on his hands. There have been calls for an interest rate cut in the Eurozone however will he be willing to enter his new position with a bang or will he be looking to get his feet under the table before any big decisions are made?

Personally I feel we have about a 30% chance of him doing so, which should lead to the Euro getting even weaker – however that other 70% option could easily end up with the Euro gaining back some strength as investors may have already speculated that there may be a minor cut.

We still have the continuing Greek crisis which will no doubt still be unfolding and still lead to swings upon releases throughout the day so you certainly cannot rule out a spanner in the works there!

Markets are indeed all over the place at present and it is key you have an experienced currency broker on your side when dealing with any large currency transactions as i’m afraid hope will not move the markets. I am happy to deal with any regular readers that have bank to bank transfers of anything from £5000 up to multi million pound transactions for corporate clients. I can be your eyes and ears on the market and help you develpop a strategy that may save you £1000s.

I cannot directly advise you but it is certainly worth having assistance and a personal opinion of someone that has been in the market for years. If you would like to join our 41,000 satisfied clients then please open a free, no obligation trading facility by clicking here and I will be more than happy to personally give you a call to discuss your requirements. Please ensure you place my name (Daniel Wright) as your point of contact.

To quote one of my fellow traders Sam this morning, “The Government schemes to get people into work to drive us out of economic turmoil are about as useful at the moment as a Blackberry mobile phone.” Both are having a hard time of it lately thats for sure!

This followed poor unemployment figures out for the U.K yesterday, which assisted Sterling in dropping below 1.14 against the Euro for the first time in a couple of weeks after a few minor spikes and some great buying opportunities for those purchasing a property or goods from within the Euro Zone.

This once again highlights how easy it is to keep holding out for that little bit more and to then get caught out. I see so many people do this on a daily basis and if I could give any of you a tip that are in a similar situation, set yourself a realistic target you are happy with and if it gets there – BUY IT.

You can always place a limit order, this tool means that even if your rate becomes achievable at 4am on a Sunday then your currency gets bought out for you – eliminating the risk of you missing out through being unavailable, you would merely receive a phone call upon the limit order being filled asking for settlement under the terms agreed.

If you want more information on limit orders then email me djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to explain them to you in full.

Today we see trade balance figures for the U.K at 09:30am – keep your eyes peeled for this one as further negative data for the the U.K could add to Sterling woes for the week.

The only plus point so far, is the gains against the USD and JPY – The Pound climbed over 1% against the two in yesterdays trading however appears to be slipping back again first thing, we have a flurry of U.S data out this afternoon so this minor spike may be short lived.

Sterling against the perceived riskier currencies has felt the pinch as investors have maybe started to look into carry trading and riskier investments even though in my opnion we are in a market much like 2008 where you just do not know what is around the corner next!

Contact me djw@currencies.co.uk whether you have a currency requirement be it buying or selling any of the majors then I will be able to help you save money over the banks or your current broker, along with ensuring you receive the bery highest level of service to boot.

Tomorrow morning 05:30am - Australian Interest Rate Decision: A big one for those with an interest in buying or sellnig Australian Dollars, no change in interest rates is expected however they have been known to come out and surprise us, the general feeling is we may see if anything at all a minor cut in rates, which would be great news fopr those buying the AUD however by no means is this a certainty, merely a punt.

Wednesday early morning 02:30am – Australian GDP Figures: Once again important figures for Australia in what is lined up to be a busy week for the AUD – GDP figures cover how much the Australian economy grew or shrunk over a specific period of time and could be key should we see any change to predictions. This is another coming out overnight so do not leave yourself open to market fluctuations…. you can place a limit or stop order to protect yourself from market movements, or even take advantage of movements should they go the right way. I have these tools available, email me djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to assist you and explain how these work.

Wednesday Afternoon 14:00pm – Canadian Interest Rate decision: Again no change to rates are expected but be aware that Central Banks have been known to surprise. Canada had poor GDP figures last week and this might lead them to also make economic announcements which could lead to volatility on this currency.

Wednesday Afternoon ??pm – NIESR GDP Estimate (U.K) - The NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) is quite highly regarded as a fairly accurate prediction for the U.K GDP figures ahead. They are a think tank built up of business leaders and rarely get it too wrong, this release can generally move the market quite a bit and doesn’t always come out at a specific time so be  wary all week that this bombshell could come out at any moment!

Wednesday 19:00pm – Federal Reserve Beige Book (U.S) - This is purely an economic release of plans going forward for the States on battling their economic conditions and any mention of Quantitative Easing is likely to weaken the Dollar. QE is where a central bank essentially prints more money and pumps it into the economy, this can weaken the currency as more of it is in circulation and further down the line it can really  push up inflation, a major case study of this is Zimbabwe where you need a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread these days – not good!

Thursday Afternoon 12:00 & 12:45 – Bank of England and European Central Bank Interest rate decisions - We all know that it is highly unlikely to see a change in the U.K interest rates however all eyes will be on any comments made surrounding the U.K economy and any mere mention of QE (Quantitative Easing) The Europeans however have raised rates twice this year so albeit a tiny one there is a chance they could do this again which would increase the value  of the Euro and potentially take the spotlight off of the debt crisis spreading like wildfire within Europe.

Friday sees some inflationary data for the U.K along with Trade Balance figures, much will change before then though so come back tio the site for more information nearer the time.

If you have an upcoming transfer to make feel free to contact me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk – I can potentially save you £1000s on any transactions be it buying or selling foreign currency, along with offering a fantastic level of customer service. I look forward to hearing from you soon.

My clients continue to ask me just what will happen to the Pound against the Euro and in truth, like major analysts worldwide and the majority of people if I am completely honest you just cannot be completely sure.

What you shoud be doing in this current market is looking at it from an investors point of view, why would you look to invest in either?

The Euro Zone has plenty of problems, and I am still of the opinion that at some point (could be weeks, months or even years the way things are going) something is really going to blow up within the European economies, we have seen signs of it and clearly that things are bad… but there is certainly room for them to get a whole lot worse.

Everything that the European Central Bank are throwing at the problem appears to be a short term fix, and when they run out of options I am sure we will see failures and the Euro weakening considerably as a result. This would stop me being that interested in the Euro as you never know quite when this will happen.

On the plus side for the Eurozone, they have raised interest rates twice this year, an interest rate rise is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned and a cut negative, so this has made the Euro more attractive to investors and in my opinion is the main reason it has kept strong, along with the Chinese and Swiss purchasing large amounts to up reserves and davalue their currency respectively

The U.K on the other hand has not even considered raising rates this year, and may not next year if inflation continues to naturally drop away- this will hold the Pound back in the short term I am sure of that.

What does not help is data releases in the U.K being fairly poor, our Misery Index (inflation times unemployment) being at the highest point in 17 years and our own people deciding to smash their own home towns and cities up just a few weeks ago… the cost for this further down the line will be huge and will surely effect the strength of future economic releases.

My overall opinion is that this pairing will continue to stay in this range as they battle to be best of a bad bunch with the Dollar, what you need to do if you are buying is wait for a small spike in the market and jump on it, before rates get a chance to go back down again.

I can help you save money either way when you do want to buy or sell currency, along with offering fantastic customer service, contact me today djw@currencies.co.uk or fill in the enquiry form on this page

With the mentione from the SNB (Swiss National Bank) that they will be stepping in to devalue the Franc in one of many ways over the course of this week we have seen huge movements for the Franc leading to great opportunities and some extremely volatile times.

I had an eye mainly on GBP – CHF yesterday and it moved over 6 cents throughout the day, if you were buying £200,000 of CHF then you are looking at over £10,000 move of CHF had you bought at the high as opposed to the low of the day.

If you have transfers pending, or you have been caught out with a Swiss Franc mortgage which is getting increasingly more expensive then you need to be in a position to act fast, you can also place different orders in the market that protect you against adverse market movements or assist you should you see a sudden spike in your favour, if you are earning Swiss Francs and want to lock into the current rate for anything up to two years in advance, you can for a small deposit with the use of a forward contract.

Feel free to get in touch with me djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to help with any transactions you may have.

The Telegraph have released a table of the best exchange rate providers and i’m pleased to say the company I work for has come out top… Please feel free to view the article I have placed the link below, it is also on Yahoo finance. Should you make an enquiry then by quoting POUND STERLING FORECAST  you will be put through to either myself or Ben (the authors of this site) and treated with the highest level of customer service whilst receiving commercial rates of exchange as I do for all of my regular readers.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews/8659209/Overseas-property-purchases-affected-by-poor-exchange-rates.html

This week in my opinion the Bank of England minutes (released at 09:30am Wednesday) are going to be key to Sterlings performance, the minutes give an overview of the last interest rate decision, along with how members voted.

I’ve just returned to the office following a bout of tonsilitis which certainly knocked me for six to see that the Pound had actually had a reasonable week against most majors last week. The usual suspects gained (NZD and CHF) however aside from those two it was refreshing to see some gains.

The thing to be wary of is the mention of further Quantitative Easing, it seems that every time we hear about even the potential of QE in the U.K the Pound plummets. If you have  an upcoming transfer go carry out it may be worth considering the various options available to you before this release including a forward contract, stops and limit orders.

If you would like me to fully explain these and help you maximise your currency transfer then email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 462 and ask for Daniel quoting Pound Sterling Forecast.

We are roughly 15 miutes away from the Bank of England minutes… will this bring more weakness for the Pound as new member Ben Broadbent has his opinion released for the first time.

The man he replaced, Andrew Sentance had been extremely in favour of an interest rate hike and should the newbie come out and be against this then we may see weakness for the Pound as it once again indicates that a rate rise in the U.K is to be pushed even further away.

An interest rate hike (or the mere mention of one) is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned as it make it much more attractive to investors. I have an awful lot of clients at present sending their Sterling to Australian bank accounts and biting the bullet on poor exchange rates as they are receiving 7% interest on their funds compared to the poor levels over here…

If your business carries out regular transactions involving currency exchange, you are buying or selling a property abroad or have any other currency requirement be it large or small, fill in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page or email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to save you a substantial amount over using your bank.

Both the Bank of England and European Central Bank kept rates on hold yesterday lunchtime, however the biggest story of the day came from head of the ECB Jean Claude Trichet, as he promised another rate hike in June.

Generally rate hikes, or the mere mention of them will strengthen a currency however it appears the markets had already priced this in well in advance.

The Euro actually lost ground over the course of the day as big traders took profits from positions as heads turned back towards the Greek debt crisis and how it would effect the Euro in the coming weeks and months.

I am writing this from a small island in Crete on my holidays (much deserved) and I can confirm that from speaking to many people around there are much further problems to come on this one and a lot going on behind the scenes that is still yet to come to light, if you are selling euros it may be extremely prudent to start looking at your options, a forward contract is one of them if you don’t have the full availablility of funds.

I won’t be back in the office until Thursday now, however if you would like to email me then contact me on djw@currencies.co.uk and one of my colleagues will get back in touch with you on my behalf, alternatively fill in the enquiry form on the righ hand side of this page and another experienced, friendly and professional trader from our floor will contact you to explain how we can save you potentially thousands over using the banks for your upcoming transfers.